The Waffle
A lot of questions are being asked about Utah, after their performance (or lack thereof) against TCU. My main question is: are they a beneficiary of their schedule or are they a victim of it? BYU fans are quick to point out they played an easy schedule, which they did. Utah fans are quick to point out that BYU is 4-5, which they are. Emotion aside, let's take an objective look at this, Ute fans and Cougar fans alike:
Good Team vs. Bad Competition
There is no question that Utah is a good team. Average or mediocre teams do not average 45 points, while giving up only 14, regardless of the competition. Average teams don't go into Ames, IA and drop 60+ on Iowa State, just ask Nebraska. Average teams don't beat Iowa State by 40 points, even at home, just ask Texas. However, were the Utes only doing so well on offense because they didn't play any good defenses? Were they only stopping opposing offenses because those offenses were stopping themselves? Those are all valid concerns, and I used them as reasons why Utah would lose big to TCU. It is obviously true that they didn't play good offenses or defenses: but having so much success, even against mediocre competition, means that they have a good offense and a good defense.
Ill-Prepared
Look at it from the flip side: Utah did not see anything near to the speed, size, ability, and coaching that they saw from the opposing sideline against TCU. There is certainly an argument to be made that Utah was a good team that was only completely unprepared for TCU because they were not challenged at all up to this point in the season. They certainly have not been challenged. And they certainly were unprepared.
How Close Were They?
Looking at the first quarter, Utah missed tackles that extended TCU's first drive, and the 93-yard TD came after a missed tackle as well. It was not that they were getting blown out of the water by speed and trickeration: they were in position to make plays, as usual, they just didn't make the plays. The Horned Frogs proved tougher to bring down than all of the other Ute opponents. Offensively, there were not fewer holes to run through, they just got filled faster than the Ute backs were used to and they weren't ready to make defenders miss. The coverage was a little tighter than the Ute WRs were used to and so the catches proved harder to make and the throws had to go through tighter windows. The hits were a lot harder and defenders moving a lot quicker than the entire Ute team was used to. The score was 20-0, sure, but it was just 3 plays away from being 3-0 instead.
Comparative Comparison...
The Utes played two decent teams and struggled to come away with wins in those games. Could they have benefited from higher competition throughout the season? Absolutely. Utah is clearly a good team. Would they be 8-1 with BYU's schedule? That is distinctly possible. Could BYU be 8-1 with Utah's schedule? That is also possible, even as mediocre as BYU was early in the year.
The Answer
So what is the answer to the question I am waffling on? Is Utah a great team that fell victim to its easy schedule or are they a good team that was a beneficiary of its easy schedule? Really, as I have said all season, because of the schedule, it is extremely difficult to judge this Utah team. However, I would lean towards giving them the benefit of the doubt this season. After all, they went to a BCS game in 2008, they went 9-3 last season plus a convincing bowl victory, and are already 8-1 this season: they are winning a lot of games.
What Lies Ahead
We will learn a little bit more this weekend at Notre Dame, and then a little bit more the following weekend at San Diego State, and even more just after Thanksgiving at home against BYU. The 5-game stretch Utah runs at the end of this season (at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and BYU) will be a good gauge of how ready Utah's program is to make the jump to the Pac 12 next season. One thing I know for sure: if they are 8-1 next season after 9 games, they have a great team. No waffling about that!
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