TCU seems like the most likely candidate to go undefeated; their preseason rating puts them a 5.5-point favorite at Oklahoma and a 7-point favorite at home against Baylor.
Michigan State and Ohio State are pretty evenly matched for the Big Ten East title. The winner of their game at the Horseshoe should have an inside track to make the Playoff (assuming a win in the Big Ten Title game, which seems a foregone conclusion to me; they would be 9-point favorites over Wisconsin or Nebraska, whichever wins the West). Ohio State is the #2 most likely team to go undefeated according to the model.
The Pac 12 and SEC both have 3 teams in the Top Ten. The ACC has zero. The Big Ten and Big XII each have 2 to round out the Top Ten. The Pac 12 South looks just as tough as the SEC West (4 teams in top 18, 5 in top 40 vs 4 teams in top 18, all 7 in top 43). If it weren't for Colorado experiencing a prolonged fall from grace since the early 2000's I would declare the Pac 12 South the toughest division in football.
The Top Five non-Power Five teams are: Boise State (29), BYU (32), Utah State (33), Bowling Green (44), and Western Kentucky (47).
Biggest surprise teams for me for how highly they were ranked: Michigan (11), Tennessee (19), California (26), Texas Tech (30), BYU (32), and Kentucky (46)
Biggest surprise teams for me for how lowly they were ranked: Nevada (119), Fresno State (106), Florida (81), Marshall (76), Houston (74), and Clemson (54)
And here it is:
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | TCU |
| 2 | Michigan St |
| 3 | Ohio St |
| 4 | Oregon |
| 5 | USC |
| 6 | Baylor |
| 7 | Alabama |
| 8 | Mississippi |
| 9 | Missouri |
| 10 | UCLA |
| 11 | Michigan |
| 12 | LSU |
| 13 | Florida St |
| 14 | Arizona St |
| 15 | Georgia |
| 16 | Utah |
| 17 | Stanford |
| 18 | Arkansas |
| 19 | Tennessee |
| 20 | Georgia Tech |
| 21 | Notre Dame |
| 22 | North Carolina |
| 23 | Oklahoma |
| 24 | Texas A&M |
| 25 | Wisconsin |
| 26 | California |
| 27 | Nebraska |
| 28 | Oklahoma St |
| 29 | Boise St |
| 30 | Texas Tech |
| 31 | South Carolina |
| 32 | BYU |
| 33 | Utah St |
| 34 | Virginia Tech |
| 35 | Auburn |
| 36 | Penn St |
| 37 | N Illinois |
| 38 | West Virginia |
| 39 | Minnesota |
| 40 | Arizona |
| 41 | NC State |
| 42 | Kansas St |
| 43 | Mississippi St |
| 44 | Bowling Green |
| 45 | Vanderbilt |
| 46 | Kentucky |
| 47 | WKU |
| 48 | Texas |
| 49 | Navy |
| 50 | Ohio |
| 51 | Cincinnati |
| 52 | Pittsburgh |
| 53 | Louisville |
| 54 | Clemson |
| 55 | Washington |
| 56 | Georgia Southern |
| 57 | Purdue |
| 58 | Northwestern |
| 59 | Illinois |
| 60 | Duke |
| 61 | Iowa |
| 62 | Temple |
| 63 | Appalachian St |
| 64 | Middle Tenn |
| 65 | East Carolina |
| 66 | Louisiana |
| 67 | Memphis |
| 68 | Miami, FL |
| 69 | Iowa St |
| 70 | Ball St |
| 71 | Toledo |
| 72 | Washington St |
| 73 | Louisiana Tech |
| 74 | Houston |
| 75 | Massachusetts |
| 76 | Marshall |
| 77 | Arkansas St |
| 78 | Maryland |
| 79 | Texas St |
| 80 | Colorado St |
| 81 | Florida |
| 82 | W Michigan |
| 83 | San Diego St |
| 84 | Syracuse |
| 85 | Tulsa |
| 86 | Indiana |
| 87 | Cent Mich |
| 88 | Colorado |
| 89 | Rutgers |
| 90 | UCF |
| 91 | Oregon St |
| 92 | Wake Forest |
| 93 | Akron |
| 94 | SMU |
| 95 | Old Dominion |
| 96 | Charlotte |
| 97 | Boston College |
| 98 | Virginia |
| 99 | Buffalo |
| 100 | Rice |
| 101 | Air Force |
| 102 | New Mexico |
| 103 | New Mexico St |
| 104 | Tulane |
| 105 | Troy |
| 106 | Fresno St |
| 107 | Georgia St |
| 108 | FIU |
| 109 | Southern Miss |
| 110 | Kent St |
| 111 | San Jose St |
| 112 | UTEP |
| 113 | USF |
| 114 | Connecticut |
| 115 | Kansas |
| 116 | North Texas |
| 117 | Hawaii |
| 118 | FAU |
| 119 | Nevada |
| 120 | South Alabama |
| 121 | ULM |
| 122 | Army |
| 123 | UTSA |
| 124 | Idaho |
| 125 | E Michigan |
| 126 | UNLV |
| 127 | Miami, OH |
| 128 | Wyoming |
