Tuesday, November 23, 2010

BYU vs. Utah - Key Matchups

The Utah Passing Attack vs. The BYU Pass Defense
Utah has been able to throw the ball all over the field against opponents.  Their specialty is yards after the catch (YAC).  They do not go deep very often, lacking a consistent deep threat, but they are plenty capable of turning a short pass into a big play.  DeVonte Christopher has been especially adept at taking it to the house.  But those crossing routes will have to get by a much improved BYU linebacking group before getting into the open field.  The secondary has done a good job all season at limiting the YAC on the outside.  The LBs are getting better at manning the inside than they had been earlier in the season.  225 is the magic number.  If Utah goes over that, BYU will have a difficult time preventing points (and BYU would be best advised to not get into a shootout).  If BYU keeps them under that, it will force Utah to run the ball more effectively than they have been in recent weeks.  It has been over a month since Utah averaged 4 yards/carry in the run game.

BYU's Three-Headed RB attack vs. Utah's Stout Front 7 (8, counting SS Brian Blechen)
BYU has run the ball well pretty much all season.  Even when there was no passing attack, and no threat of a passing attack, BYU was still able to run.  Even when the Ute secondary was giving up 528 passing yards to SDSU, they held down the Aztec rushing attack (59 yards in 21 attempts).  It is a big, more athletic front 4 going up against a bigger, athletic O-Line.  It is 3 physical linebackers going up against 2 physical running backs and 1 prancing one.  Throw in two big-hitting safeties and a couple of bruising FBs and TEs for a nice addition to this Big Ten-style chess match.  The key number is not a yardage total so much as a yard/carry average.  BYU generally needs to be about 4.3 or 4.4 yards/carry to do what they want to do offensively.  Utah is giving up 3.14 yards/carry on the season.  If BYU can manage 4.0 yards/carry, that might be enough to help the freshmen QB, TEs, and WRs adjust to the game played at rivalry speed.

Riley Stephenson vs. Shaky Smithson
Shaky Smithson is the #2 punt returner in the country, averaging 21.11 yards/return with 2 TDs.  Riley Stephenson and BYU's punt cover team has held opponents to 6.43 yards/return.  Given how tight these rivalry games can be, a big punt return (or the lack of any punt returns) could swing the momentum enough to give a team enough of an edge.  BYU needs to hold Shaky to less than 10/return, or better yet, prevent him from returning the ball at all.  Utah may need a big special teams play to break the game open, and Shaky is capable of providing that spark at any time.

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis in all of your blogs here. You should make a living at this.

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