What Will It Take?
A lot of discussion has been made as to whether or not BYU can get a number 1 seed. If the season ended today, I don't see why they wouldn't. But the season doesn't end today. First off, at a bare minimum BYU needs to win their last two regular season games and the MWC Tournament. That should be enough to keep them in the top 3 of the RPI, which isn't a perfect measure of tournament seeding, but it's pretty good.
They may need to have the matchups line up correctly as well. That would mean playing CSU in the Semifinals and SDSU in the Finals of the tournament. That would be the biggest help to their Strength of Schedule, given the other opponents that they could get (New Mexico and UNLV). Getting TCU would also be better in the first round, from a Strength of Schedule perspective as well, though whether BYU plays the 200th or 258th team isn't a big difference. BYU currently has 4 top-25 wins, 9 top-50 RPI wins, and 11 top-100 wins. If UNLV could pop into the top 25 (currently at 26), it would give BYU 2 more top-25 wins. If Air Force could pop into the top 100 (currently at 103), that would help as well. Beating New Mexico, CSU, and SDSU would give them 1 more top-25 win, 2 more top-50 wins, and 3 more top-100 wins.
Sizing Up the Competition
Pittsburgh and Duke are their biggest competitors for the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds (I am assuming that Ohio State and Kansas are locks at this point). Texas also has an outside chance too, but I consider that very outside at the moment. If BYU wins out, Duke would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to be ahead of BYU. BYU has a better record and Strength of Schedule. Duke still has to play at resurgent North Carolina. Pitt's margin for error is probably a bit higher, given that they should win the Big East regular season title, a conference with a realistic shot at getting 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament. They should win their final two regular season games (at South Florida and home against collapsing Villanova). I think they only need to win 3 more games to get their #1 seed.
Texas has 3 losses (at Colorado, at USC, at Nebraska) as bad as BYU's worst loss (at New Mexico). But if they are co-conference champions with KU and win the Big XII Tournament, it'd be tough somewhat to argue that they shouldn't be a 1-seed as well. Especially with that win at Kansas in hand...
The Knock Against BYU
Complain all BYU fans want, but the question remains (and always will): who has BYU beat? They beat an SDSU team that the country is not sold on. I really haven't been sold on them either all season (as I have mentioned on several occasions: way too many close games against way too many not good teams), and the game on Saturday didn't do anything to change that. BYU beat Arizona, who may very well win the Pac 10, but that isn't anything to brag about right now. Plus the Wildcats just lost two road games in a row. They beat Utah State, at home, at the beginning of the season. This is another team that the country is not sold on either. They have wins against good computer opponents, but no one considers these top flight teams.
The numbers may tell a great story, but the eyeball test doesn't necessarily. By the bye, the eyeball test isn't a completely arbitrary way of keeping non-majors down. It isn't the end-all, be-all, but it is important. Like it or not, the Committee looks at it. I think the eyeball test is favorable for BYU, but not for BYU's "quality" wins. BYU has 4 wins against the top 25, but none of them are Final Four (or maybe even Elite Eight) caliber teams. They may all go advance to the Sweet 16, but the three teams and four wins are not absolutely infallible.
In Summary
If BYU wins out, including the conference tournament, they have a great chance of being a 1-seed. Their RPI is high (should be top 3). Their ranking is high (should be top 3). Their record is amazing (would be 32-2). They have Jimmer Fredette (should be National Player of the Year). It's no guarantee. But no matter what seed BYU gets, they should be playing in Denver the first weekend and in Anaheim the second weekend. They would probably be matched up against Kansas or Texas in their bracket as the opposite 1/2, which only matters if BYU makes an Elite Eight run.
If BYU loses another game, they are a 2-seed. They should still finish in the top 5. Jimmer should still be NPOY. They should still have 30 or 31 wins. They should still play in Denver/Anaheim. I like it either way.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
BYU-SDSU Recap, 2/26/2011
Mo's Keys
1) I said BYU needed to get out to a fast start. They did, leading by 8 points 10 minutes into the game.
2) I said the team (not counting Jimmer) would need to hit 10 to 12 three-pointers, as Jimmer would have to deal with constant double and triple teams. They did, going 10-16, an astonishing 62.5%. On the road. Against a team in the top 5 in one of the polls.
3) I said that SDSU was going to need to make more shots, and that they wouldn't win the game on offensive rebounds and second-chance points. They made 3 more shots this game. And had 3 less offensive rebounds. That's not good enough.
4) I said that BYU was better prepared to deal with the hype than SDSU. That was certainly true. It probably wasn't nerves (it's probably just that SDSU can't shoot), but James Rahon was the only guy the Aztecs could count on to hit from the outside. But he only ended up with 10 points. Malcolm Thomas and DJ Gay were non-factors, perhaps a credit to Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, and the 2-3 zone, but perhaps it was the fact that this was the biggest game any of them had ever played in.
Thoughts
If Jimmer scored 40+ points again, BYU was going to be in trouble. It needed to be a team effort, and it was. In the final 10 minutes, Jimmer was doubled as soon as he crossed half-court and forced to give up the ball: boy, did that plan backfire. BYU's "other guys" hit 3 threes in the final 10 minutes. Frankly, it was the type of game I expected BYU to play at home, with role players stepping up and feeling the crowd. I suppose it is more encouraging that this happened in such a big game on the road. The "other guys" can handle anything too.
I feel a lot more vindicated in my explanation earlier this week that BYU has a better chance of tournament success than SDSU. If 40% shooting is what the Aztecs could do today, against a less athletic team, at home, in the biggest game in their program's history, how will they win several consecutive neutral site games against more athletic teams? If they struggled so hard against BYU's 2-3 zone, imagine how bad it would be if they saw Syracuse early in the tournament.
Looking Ahead
BYU should be the number 1 RPI team tomorrow, though maybe they are still #2, barely behind Kansas. They should jump into the top 5 in the polls on Monday, with Texas' come-from-ahead loss at CU. They have officially emerged as a legitimate 1-seed candidate, but that will require 5 more wins and an MWC Tournament Championship, at the minimum. Even then, it may take help from others losing ahead of them.
They should absolutely win their final two regular season games. They will get the 1-seed in the MWC Tournament and be conference champions with the best ever MWC record. They should advance to the MWC Tournament Final, though I am a little bit leary of a semifinal matchup with Colorado State. I am buying them as at least a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament now, assuming they win at least 3 more games. They are ahead of Texas now, in my opinion, and will be unless/until Texas beats Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. As I was typing this, Duke lost at Virginia Tech, so BYU should be ahead of them too: BYU sports a better record with a tougher strength of schedule (according to the computers).
Jimmer for NPOY
Jimmer's performance today should solidify his lead in the National Player of the Year debate. He "only" had 25 points, but had 9 assists and 2 steals. He led his team to a conference championship on the road with most of the college basketball-watching nation eyeing the game. He already had a huge lead. I don't see how it could get any smaller with his performance tonight. Especially with Nolan Smith having a terrible last 5 minutes in Duke's loss tonight. Jimmer went on the road and got it done. His competition failed to get it done. Jared Sullinger cannot do enough against woeful Indiana tomorrow to catch up either.
1) I said BYU needed to get out to a fast start. They did, leading by 8 points 10 minutes into the game.
2) I said the team (not counting Jimmer) would need to hit 10 to 12 three-pointers, as Jimmer would have to deal with constant double and triple teams. They did, going 10-16, an astonishing 62.5%. On the road. Against a team in the top 5 in one of the polls.
3) I said that SDSU was going to need to make more shots, and that they wouldn't win the game on offensive rebounds and second-chance points. They made 3 more shots this game. And had 3 less offensive rebounds. That's not good enough.
4) I said that BYU was better prepared to deal with the hype than SDSU. That was certainly true. It probably wasn't nerves (it's probably just that SDSU can't shoot), but James Rahon was the only guy the Aztecs could count on to hit from the outside. But he only ended up with 10 points. Malcolm Thomas and DJ Gay were non-factors, perhaps a credit to Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, and the 2-3 zone, but perhaps it was the fact that this was the biggest game any of them had ever played in.
Thoughts
If Jimmer scored 40+ points again, BYU was going to be in trouble. It needed to be a team effort, and it was. In the final 10 minutes, Jimmer was doubled as soon as he crossed half-court and forced to give up the ball: boy, did that plan backfire. BYU's "other guys" hit 3 threes in the final 10 minutes. Frankly, it was the type of game I expected BYU to play at home, with role players stepping up and feeling the crowd. I suppose it is more encouraging that this happened in such a big game on the road. The "other guys" can handle anything too.
I feel a lot more vindicated in my explanation earlier this week that BYU has a better chance of tournament success than SDSU. If 40% shooting is what the Aztecs could do today, against a less athletic team, at home, in the biggest game in their program's history, how will they win several consecutive neutral site games against more athletic teams? If they struggled so hard against BYU's 2-3 zone, imagine how bad it would be if they saw Syracuse early in the tournament.
Looking Ahead
BYU should be the number 1 RPI team tomorrow, though maybe they are still #2, barely behind Kansas. They should jump into the top 5 in the polls on Monday, with Texas' come-from-ahead loss at CU. They have officially emerged as a legitimate 1-seed candidate, but that will require 5 more wins and an MWC Tournament Championship, at the minimum. Even then, it may take help from others losing ahead of them.
They should absolutely win their final two regular season games. They will get the 1-seed in the MWC Tournament and be conference champions with the best ever MWC record. They should advance to the MWC Tournament Final, though I am a little bit leary of a semifinal matchup with Colorado State. I am buying them as at least a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament now, assuming they win at least 3 more games. They are ahead of Texas now, in my opinion, and will be unless/until Texas beats Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. As I was typing this, Duke lost at Virginia Tech, so BYU should be ahead of them too: BYU sports a better record with a tougher strength of schedule (according to the computers).
Jimmer for NPOY
Jimmer's performance today should solidify his lead in the National Player of the Year debate. He "only" had 25 points, but had 9 assists and 2 steals. He led his team to a conference championship on the road with most of the college basketball-watching nation eyeing the game. He already had a huge lead. I don't see how it could get any smaller with his performance tonight. Especially with Nolan Smith having a terrible last 5 minutes in Duke's loss tonight. Jimmer went on the road and got it done. His competition failed to get it done. Jared Sullinger cannot do enough against woeful Indiana tomorrow to catch up either.
Friday, February 25, 2011
BYU-SDSU Prediction, 2/26/2011
A Few Final Thoughts
I think this game will go one of two ways: BYU will rise to the moment and win a tightly contested game or BYU will choke and get blown out. All BYU fans are familiar with the team that chokes and loses the big game, more so than they are with the one that rises to these kinds of occasions. Some of them may not admit it, but they all know it to be true. But I have gone on record on many occasions this year stating that this is not the typical BYU team. They seem to be mentally tougher. They seem to find ways to get wins, even when things aren't going their way. But then there is the loss at New Mexico, in which they blow a double-digit lead during the final 10 minutes of the contest and lost by 9. And then there's the UCLA game in Anaheim, where BYU led for the first 9 minutes before trailing for the final 31 minutes in a loss.
On the flip side, BYU also dominated against the 10th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City in a 22-point win. They controlled the second half at home against the Aztecs exactly one month prior to the rematch. They went to UNLV and responded to a 10-point deficit with 5 minutes left in the first half with some phenomenal play the final 5 of the first half, and just as dominating of a performance in the second half in a 12-point road win against a conference rival that is surely a single-digit seed NCAA Tournament team.
So will it be more like the team that played the second half against New Mexico or the one that played the second half at UNLV? Honestly, if BYU played well, I would not be disappointed with a loss. What would disappoint me would be for the Cougars to wilt under the pressure and be exposed for the unathletic, below-the-rim type of guys that they look like. I would be disappointed if nobody hit their shots and Jimmer looked like a one-man team.
The Edge
Both teams have distinct advantages. The Aztecs are a better defensive team and a better rebounding team. But BYU is a better offensive team and a better free throw shooting team. SDSU is at home. But Jimmer is on the road, where he has had some of his best performances of the season. SDSU is better in the half-court. But BYU is better in transition.
Both teams have great coaches. Both teams bring in solid players off the bench, but not many of them. Both teams have won games they probably should have lost. Both teams have a chance to perform so well that it won't matter what the other team does. Both teams are very good. Both definitely have advantages they can exploit. The game will go to the team that best utilizes their advantages.
Prediction
Can SDSU prevent Jimmer from going off while also keeping the role players in check? Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock will tell you a lot. If they each hit their first few shots, then Jimmer will have a luxury he didn't have in the first meeting: dependable teammates. I think there are too many Cougars that have played well lately for the Cougars to play poorly/choke and get blown out. Since I said it could go one of two ways and I'm ruling one out, I'm obviously going the other way. I think this game will actually live up to the hype. BYU is more use to the hype, which may play to their advantage. I think BYU rises to the occasion and Jimmer leads BYU to what he returned his senior season for: a conference championship. Even if they lose, there should still be a great rematch in the MWC Tournament (unless UNLV is able to use its homecourt advantage to oust one of them in the semifinals). The winner of this game loses that rematch. I guess that means SDSU will be MWC Tournament Champions. BYU 74, SDSU 67. Jimmer Fredette, 29.
I think this game will go one of two ways: BYU will rise to the moment and win a tightly contested game or BYU will choke and get blown out. All BYU fans are familiar with the team that chokes and loses the big game, more so than they are with the one that rises to these kinds of occasions. Some of them may not admit it, but they all know it to be true. But I have gone on record on many occasions this year stating that this is not the typical BYU team. They seem to be mentally tougher. They seem to find ways to get wins, even when things aren't going their way. But then there is the loss at New Mexico, in which they blow a double-digit lead during the final 10 minutes of the contest and lost by 9. And then there's the UCLA game in Anaheim, where BYU led for the first 9 minutes before trailing for the final 31 minutes in a loss.
On the flip side, BYU also dominated against the 10th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City in a 22-point win. They controlled the second half at home against the Aztecs exactly one month prior to the rematch. They went to UNLV and responded to a 10-point deficit with 5 minutes left in the first half with some phenomenal play the final 5 of the first half, and just as dominating of a performance in the second half in a 12-point road win against a conference rival that is surely a single-digit seed NCAA Tournament team.
So will it be more like the team that played the second half against New Mexico or the one that played the second half at UNLV? Honestly, if BYU played well, I would not be disappointed with a loss. What would disappoint me would be for the Cougars to wilt under the pressure and be exposed for the unathletic, below-the-rim type of guys that they look like. I would be disappointed if nobody hit their shots and Jimmer looked like a one-man team.
The Edge
Both teams have distinct advantages. The Aztecs are a better defensive team and a better rebounding team. But BYU is a better offensive team and a better free throw shooting team. SDSU is at home. But Jimmer is on the road, where he has had some of his best performances of the season. SDSU is better in the half-court. But BYU is better in transition.
Both teams have great coaches. Both teams bring in solid players off the bench, but not many of them. Both teams have won games they probably should have lost. Both teams have a chance to perform so well that it won't matter what the other team does. Both teams are very good. Both definitely have advantages they can exploit. The game will go to the team that best utilizes their advantages.
Prediction
Can SDSU prevent Jimmer from going off while also keeping the role players in check? Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock will tell you a lot. If they each hit their first few shots, then Jimmer will have a luxury he didn't have in the first meeting: dependable teammates. I think there are too many Cougars that have played well lately for the Cougars to play poorly/choke and get blown out. Since I said it could go one of two ways and I'm ruling one out, I'm obviously going the other way. I think this game will actually live up to the hype. BYU is more use to the hype, which may play to their advantage. I think BYU rises to the occasion and Jimmer leads BYU to what he returned his senior season for: a conference championship. Even if they lose, there should still be a great rematch in the MWC Tournament (unless UNLV is able to use its homecourt advantage to oust one of them in the semifinals). The winner of this game loses that rematch. I guess that means SDSU will be MWC Tournament Champions. BYU 74, SDSU 67. Jimmer Fredette, 29.
A Few Keys: BYU-SDSU 2/26/2011
Early Start's Impact
This game is being played at 11am Pacific Time. That is early for SDSU. With it being Noon Mountain, it isn't as big of a deal for BYU. However, BYU also had a very physical contest against CSU Wednesday night, so the early start means less time to recuperate. Which team will be sluggish at the start? Or will both? Or will the hype of the game be enough for both teams to overcome? Whichever team gets off to a fast start may transform how the game is played. If BYU jumps out early, SDSU may get in catch-up mode too soon and get out of their normal stuff. If SDSU jumps out early, the crowd will get into it and some of BYU's younger and role players may not have the mental edge to overcome it. Whoever wins the first 10 minutes may very well win the game. That may be even more true for BYU, whose best chance is to get out early on the road and silence the crowd, and cling for the next 30, something they were unable to do against New Mexico.
Junking Jimmer
SDSU will most certainly have some junk defenses for Jimmer. How much will he get doubled? Who will guard him the lion's share of the minutes? Will they do what other teams have done with mixed results and put a PF on him and take away the outside shot? Jimmer has been driving around the lengthy defenders, but he has been making very poor decisions of late, turning the ball over way too much, on his dribble penetration. Or will they just take it out of his hands completely and force the rest of the squad to beat them consistently for 40 minutes? That is the tact I would do. Jackson Emery, Stephen Rogers, and Charles Abouo can make threes, but can they make 10 or 12 over 40 minutes? Noah Hartsock can hit baseline jumpers, Brandon Davies can score from the post, and Kyle Collinsworth can get to the rim and score, but can they each put up 15-20 points, and make those shots for an entire game? So what strategy will they employ?
Steve Fisher is very secretive about that kind of thing. I remember back about 2004 or so, I worked in the Marriott Center as a janitor. We were doing some kind of cleaning in the student section, it was game day after all, and he had one of the trainers come and kick us out because they were going over their defensive strategy in walk-through form. Chances are, nobody knows right now except the players and coaches what the Aztecs will do to try to stop Jimmer. I do know one thing: they are not going to let him go off for 43 and pretty much singlehandedly win the game. What they do with Jimmer and how Jimmer reacts, will be crucial. Jimmer must turn it over no more than 3 or 4 times. The other guys must continue to hit open looks when they get them. It is the only way to take the pressure off of Jimmer. Let's be honest, he pretty much did everything the last time these two teams met. That can't happen again if BYU wants to win.
It's All in the Percentages
In the first meeting, SDSU dominated the glass, nearly as badly as BYU dominated CSU on Wednesday night. However, they only scored 58 points. The fact was they had so many offensive rebounds because there were so many missed shots. SDSU had 13 second chance points on 18 offensive rebounds. [Make no mistake, BYU can not afford to give SDSU either of those numbers while playing on the road, but it ended up not killing them at home. Those numbers mirror what BYU did to CSU on Wednesday night, which was a big difference in the outcome, especially when it is the home team that does it.] But in the end, those boards and points for the Aztecs were not enough to overcome a deficiency in shooting the ball. BYU, who had 9 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points, made up for the Aztecs rebounding dominance with 45% shooting to SDSU's 40%. I anticipate that both of those numbers will probably go down this game, but which one goes down more will have a huge impact. Jimmer shot 58% in the first meeting, but has been shooting under 40% for four consecutive games. In a game with both teams below 40%, SDSU has the edge. If BYU can stay over 40%, they should have a chance, assuming the BYU factor isn't in play tomorrow and SDSU shoots 50%...
This game is being played at 11am Pacific Time. That is early for SDSU. With it being Noon Mountain, it isn't as big of a deal for BYU. However, BYU also had a very physical contest against CSU Wednesday night, so the early start means less time to recuperate. Which team will be sluggish at the start? Or will both? Or will the hype of the game be enough for both teams to overcome? Whichever team gets off to a fast start may transform how the game is played. If BYU jumps out early, SDSU may get in catch-up mode too soon and get out of their normal stuff. If SDSU jumps out early, the crowd will get into it and some of BYU's younger and role players may not have the mental edge to overcome it. Whoever wins the first 10 minutes may very well win the game. That may be even more true for BYU, whose best chance is to get out early on the road and silence the crowd, and cling for the next 30, something they were unable to do against New Mexico.
Junking Jimmer
SDSU will most certainly have some junk defenses for Jimmer. How much will he get doubled? Who will guard him the lion's share of the minutes? Will they do what other teams have done with mixed results and put a PF on him and take away the outside shot? Jimmer has been driving around the lengthy defenders, but he has been making very poor decisions of late, turning the ball over way too much, on his dribble penetration. Or will they just take it out of his hands completely and force the rest of the squad to beat them consistently for 40 minutes? That is the tact I would do. Jackson Emery, Stephen Rogers, and Charles Abouo can make threes, but can they make 10 or 12 over 40 minutes? Noah Hartsock can hit baseline jumpers, Brandon Davies can score from the post, and Kyle Collinsworth can get to the rim and score, but can they each put up 15-20 points, and make those shots for an entire game? So what strategy will they employ?
Steve Fisher is very secretive about that kind of thing. I remember back about 2004 or so, I worked in the Marriott Center as a janitor. We were doing some kind of cleaning in the student section, it was game day after all, and he had one of the trainers come and kick us out because they were going over their defensive strategy in walk-through form. Chances are, nobody knows right now except the players and coaches what the Aztecs will do to try to stop Jimmer. I do know one thing: they are not going to let him go off for 43 and pretty much singlehandedly win the game. What they do with Jimmer and how Jimmer reacts, will be crucial. Jimmer must turn it over no more than 3 or 4 times. The other guys must continue to hit open looks when they get them. It is the only way to take the pressure off of Jimmer. Let's be honest, he pretty much did everything the last time these two teams met. That can't happen again if BYU wants to win.
It's All in the Percentages
In the first meeting, SDSU dominated the glass, nearly as badly as BYU dominated CSU on Wednesday night. However, they only scored 58 points. The fact was they had so many offensive rebounds because there were so many missed shots. SDSU had 13 second chance points on 18 offensive rebounds. [Make no mistake, BYU can not afford to give SDSU either of those numbers while playing on the road, but it ended up not killing them at home. Those numbers mirror what BYU did to CSU on Wednesday night, which was a big difference in the outcome, especially when it is the home team that does it.] But in the end, those boards and points for the Aztecs were not enough to overcome a deficiency in shooting the ball. BYU, who had 9 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points, made up for the Aztecs rebounding dominance with 45% shooting to SDSU's 40%. I anticipate that both of those numbers will probably go down this game, but which one goes down more will have a huge impact. Jimmer shot 58% in the first meeting, but has been shooting under 40% for four consecutive games. In a game with both teams below 40%, SDSU has the edge. If BYU can stay over 40%, they should have a chance, assuming the BYU factor isn't in play tomorrow and SDSU shoots 50%...
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
State of BYU after CSU, 2/23/2011
Two Teams
In terms of wins and losses at this point in the season, this is the best BYU team ever. Through 28 games, no BYU team has ever won 26 games. One could also argue that through 28 games, this is probably one of the most difficult schedules (in the aggregate) that BYU has played. So an argument could be made that this is BYU's best team ever. It is certainly Coach Rose's best team ever. However, this is the most inconsistent BYU team I can recall, and that's just within a single game, not talking about from game to game.
Every BYU team has games where they don't play nearly as well as they did the game before. I am not talking about that kind of inconsistent. I am talking about how this team, within a minute's time, can look every bit the top ten team their ranking indicates and then resemble a pick-up game in a suburban LDS Cultural Hall. One minute, BYU is getting contributions from Abouo, Hartsock, Emery, and Davies, with Jimmer playing completely under control. The next minute, Jimmer is dribbling all over the place (like that punk feaux-streetballer that always shows up for the aforementioned pick-up game who thinks it's his duty to take 50% of his shots and 75% of the dribbles, while simultaneously playing point guard and center, as a one-man full-court press. You all know the type of guy I'm talking about), while every Cougar goes to sleep on the defensive end. Now, one could make the case that BYU is only playing as inconsistent as the refs have been the past month. I would certainly be remiss if I didn't say that the game tonight was one of the worst ref-ing jobs I have seen in a long time. Not biased, just bad. This is becoming a disturbing trend the past few weeks though...I am amazed they called 53 fouls in the game tonight, I think they missed at least that many, while also calling several questionable travel calls while missing a 4-step travel that resulted in a wide-open layup.
The game tonight was certainly not the first time BYU has been so inconsistent in the past month. But then this fact remains: they are still finding ways to win games. Tonight, they dominated about 12 minutes of the game, CSU dominated about 8 minutes, and the other 20 were pretty sloppy. Yet BYU scored 84 points on only 40% shooting against an NCAA Tournament Bubble Team (i.e. a team better than their first round opponent will probably be). Maybe the ability to play through such wild inconsistency and still win (with the game never really in doubt the final 10 minutes) is what makes this the best BYU team of the last 30 years.
Five Key Players
First off, four players finished in double figures, which was important. 1) Brandon Davies finished with more free throws than rebounds. And he had 15 rebounds. 2) Jackson Emery had 4 steals, including one at the most crucial point in the game, and a block to go with his 11 points. 3) Abouo hit a three, had two very important rebounds (and one other board too...), two blocks, a steal, 9 points, and an assist, with zero turnovers. 4) Collinsworth had 8 rebounds, all defensive, to go with his 3 assists and a block. 5) Jimmer, despite overdribbling, overshooting, taking triple teams head on (and losing time after time), finished with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. He forced everything. He looked bad doing it. He got blocked 3-5 times (I lost count). When he beat the double-team he held on to the ball a step too long, which is where most of his 8 turnovers happened. He wasn't getting calls, but he kept playing like he was. He acted like a true ballhog, especially for someone shooting only 36% for the game. Jimmer did almost everything wrong. And finished with 34 points. And still got several fouls called on CSU's big men which is probably ultimately what cost CSU the game.
Comparing Tourney Chances
A lot of people have stated that SDSU is better built for an NCAA Tournament run than is BYU. They have size and athleticism. They rebound extremely well. They defend even better. However, I would make the argument that both are very good teams. But BYU has more just as good a chance, or better. They have more NCAA Tournament experience. BYU also has the one piece that SDSU does not: a player that can completely control everything about the game. SDSU has no Jimmer. Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, or Malcolm Thomas COULD take over a game for the Aztecs and carry the team. But with the game on the line, would you rather have Chris Bosh or Kobe Bryant? I am not saying Jimmer is Kobe by any means, nor that Chris Bosh couldn't carry his team in the fourth quarter. I am saying I would rather have the guy I know CAN carry the team than the guy I know COULD carry the team.
In the Gold Medal game at the last Olympics, who did Team USA turn to down the stretch when things were looking dire? It wasn't Lebron, D-Wade, or Cry-Melo. They didn't feed the post. No, not even close. Kobe took over the team. Kobe won the Gold Medal for USA. Everyone knew he was going to try to do it, and he did it anyway, and there was no stopping him. SDSU has some great players and any one of them could carry the team through a game, but they don't have a go-to guy that you know can get it done in crunchtime with everything on the line. They are an amazingly talented team. But another knock on them is that they haven't been there before. For the Aztecs, their NCAA Tournament First Round game will be pretty much everyone's second NCAA Tournament game. For their outside scoring threat James Rahon, it's his first-ever NCAA Tournament game. That's the guy you are trusting to keep the defense honest.
For Jimmer it's NCAA Tournament game #5 (averaged 22 points/game in the first 4). For Jackson, Noah, and Abouo it's #4 (James Anderson also dressed for 4 NCAA Tournament games). For Davies and Magnusson it's #3 (Zylstra dressed for 3). That is big. BYU has THE guy and they have the experience. When non-BCS schools make a deep run in the tournament (Butler, George Mason, Davidson, Gonzaga) it takes those two things more than athleticism and rebounding. In the tournament, everyone has that (well, except for BYU and some of the 14-16 seeds). I think that's what gives BYU a better chance at a long tournament life. However, especially after BYU's up-and-down performance tonight, I'm not putting either of them in my Final Four. I would like to see SDSU win ONE NCAA Tournament game before I pick them to win four (they are 0-6 in their program's history). I'd also like to see a BYU player dunk in traffic before I'd pick them to win more than two...
In terms of wins and losses at this point in the season, this is the best BYU team ever. Through 28 games, no BYU team has ever won 26 games. One could also argue that through 28 games, this is probably one of the most difficult schedules (in the aggregate) that BYU has played. So an argument could be made that this is BYU's best team ever. It is certainly Coach Rose's best team ever. However, this is the most inconsistent BYU team I can recall, and that's just within a single game, not talking about from game to game.
Every BYU team has games where they don't play nearly as well as they did the game before. I am not talking about that kind of inconsistent. I am talking about how this team, within a minute's time, can look every bit the top ten team their ranking indicates and then resemble a pick-up game in a suburban LDS Cultural Hall. One minute, BYU is getting contributions from Abouo, Hartsock, Emery, and Davies, with Jimmer playing completely under control. The next minute, Jimmer is dribbling all over the place (like that punk feaux-streetballer that always shows up for the aforementioned pick-up game who thinks it's his duty to take 50% of his shots and 75% of the dribbles, while simultaneously playing point guard and center, as a one-man full-court press. You all know the type of guy I'm talking about), while every Cougar goes to sleep on the defensive end. Now, one could make the case that BYU is only playing as inconsistent as the refs have been the past month. I would certainly be remiss if I didn't say that the game tonight was one of the worst ref-ing jobs I have seen in a long time. Not biased, just bad. This is becoming a disturbing trend the past few weeks though...I am amazed they called 53 fouls in the game tonight, I think they missed at least that many, while also calling several questionable travel calls while missing a 4-step travel that resulted in a wide-open layup.
The game tonight was certainly not the first time BYU has been so inconsistent in the past month. But then this fact remains: they are still finding ways to win games. Tonight, they dominated about 12 minutes of the game, CSU dominated about 8 minutes, and the other 20 were pretty sloppy. Yet BYU scored 84 points on only 40% shooting against an NCAA Tournament Bubble Team (i.e. a team better than their first round opponent will probably be). Maybe the ability to play through such wild inconsistency and still win (with the game never really in doubt the final 10 minutes) is what makes this the best BYU team of the last 30 years.
Five Key Players
First off, four players finished in double figures, which was important. 1) Brandon Davies finished with more free throws than rebounds. And he had 15 rebounds. 2) Jackson Emery had 4 steals, including one at the most crucial point in the game, and a block to go with his 11 points. 3) Abouo hit a three, had two very important rebounds (and one other board too...), two blocks, a steal, 9 points, and an assist, with zero turnovers. 4) Collinsworth had 8 rebounds, all defensive, to go with his 3 assists and a block. 5) Jimmer, despite overdribbling, overshooting, taking triple teams head on (and losing time after time), finished with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. He forced everything. He looked bad doing it. He got blocked 3-5 times (I lost count). When he beat the double-team he held on to the ball a step too long, which is where most of his 8 turnovers happened. He wasn't getting calls, but he kept playing like he was. He acted like a true ballhog, especially for someone shooting only 36% for the game. Jimmer did almost everything wrong. And finished with 34 points. And still got several fouls called on CSU's big men which is probably ultimately what cost CSU the game.
Comparing Tourney Chances
A lot of people have stated that SDSU is better built for an NCAA Tournament run than is BYU. They have size and athleticism. They rebound extremely well. They defend even better. However, I would make the argument that both are very good teams. But BYU has more just as good a chance, or better. They have more NCAA Tournament experience. BYU also has the one piece that SDSU does not: a player that can completely control everything about the game. SDSU has no Jimmer. Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, or Malcolm Thomas COULD take over a game for the Aztecs and carry the team. But with the game on the line, would you rather have Chris Bosh or Kobe Bryant? I am not saying Jimmer is Kobe by any means, nor that Chris Bosh couldn't carry his team in the fourth quarter. I am saying I would rather have the guy I know CAN carry the team than the guy I know COULD carry the team.
In the Gold Medal game at the last Olympics, who did Team USA turn to down the stretch when things were looking dire? It wasn't Lebron, D-Wade, or Cry-Melo. They didn't feed the post. No, not even close. Kobe took over the team. Kobe won the Gold Medal for USA. Everyone knew he was going to try to do it, and he did it anyway, and there was no stopping him. SDSU has some great players and any one of them could carry the team through a game, but they don't have a go-to guy that you know can get it done in crunchtime with everything on the line. They are an amazingly talented team. But another knock on them is that they haven't been there before. For the Aztecs, their NCAA Tournament First Round game will be pretty much everyone's second NCAA Tournament game. For their outside scoring threat James Rahon, it's his first-ever NCAA Tournament game. That's the guy you are trusting to keep the defense honest.
For Jimmer it's NCAA Tournament game #5 (averaged 22 points/game in the first 4). For Jackson, Noah, and Abouo it's #4 (James Anderson also dressed for 4 NCAA Tournament games). For Davies and Magnusson it's #3 (Zylstra dressed for 3). That is big. BYU has THE guy and they have the experience. When non-BCS schools make a deep run in the tournament (Butler, George Mason, Davidson, Gonzaga) it takes those two things more than athleticism and rebounding. In the tournament, everyone has that (well, except for BYU and some of the 14-16 seeds). I think that's what gives BYU a better chance at a long tournament life. However, especially after BYU's up-and-down performance tonight, I'm not putting either of them in my Final Four. I would like to see SDSU win ONE NCAA Tournament game before I pick them to win four (they are 0-6 in their program's history). I'd also like to see a BYU player dunk in traffic before I'd pick them to win more than two...
CSU-BYU Preview, 2/23/2011
Tournament-Like Game
This game against Colorado State is pretty similar to BYU's first round NCAA Tournament game. It is an opponent they should beat, but is still probably good enough to be in the tournament. It is a "desperate" team fighting for its postseason life, just like the tournament will be. It's a balanced team, with a solid starting five at every position. There are some matchups that even favor CSU. The biggest difference between this game and the first round of the NCAA Tournament? This one is at home instead of a neutral site. As my father so aptly pointed out in a comment on the last post: if BYU can't win this one, they don't deserve a high seed in the tournament. I go one step further, if BYU can't win this one (and easily), you may want to think twice about how far you put them in your tournament bracket.
Last Time
BYU outscored this CSU team on the road last time, 94-85. Since scoring 85 against BYU in Fort Collins, CSU has scored 69, 74, 54, 59, 68, 69, and 61, with a 5-2 record in that span. BYU has scored 71, 77, 69, 78, 90, 72, and 79, going 6-1 since that game. While both teams offense has dipped since that shootout, BYU has maintained a higher level of scoring (with 4 of the 7 games on the road, compared to 3 of 7 for the Rams). And Jimmer scored under 30 points in 5 of the 7 games. So they are scoring more, from more places. CSU has become very big-man oriented the past few games. That leads to high-percentage shooting, but if Davies and Hartsock avoid foul trouble, CSU doesn't have other scoring options. The other factor is that BYU's 2-3 defense has been better of late, which will make it more difficult to score inside as well.
Jimmermania
This is the part of the first half of the conference schedule where Jimmer really got going. Part of that was the need, with so many other guys struggling the first round. Part of it was the competitive level of Jimmer, knowing that these are the three teams (CSU, SDSU, and New Mexico) that BYU needs to beat. Other guys aren't struggling right now, most of the team is playing well. However, BYU still needs this win, so I would expect Jimmer to still do some Jimmerific things. For a stretch he was overdribbling, overshooting, and trying to do too much. He can still perform at an insanely high level within the framework of the offense. I think he lost sight of that a little bit for those few games he wasn't getting the calls. I would expect a game where he shoots a higher percentage, turns the ball over less, and gets more assists. If not, it is probably a bad omen going into Saturday's game at SDSU.
Keys and Prediction
BYU should win this game running away. It is a team that they beat on the road by 9, with two starters in foul trouble, in the most electric atmosphere CSU has had at home in a long time. BYU fans should worry somewhat about Ogide who had a double-double against BYU the first time. Wes Eikmeier also torched BYU for 25 points, including 5 three pointers. However, Eikmeier's best scoring output on the road in MWC play was 14 points and 2 threes. I think Collinsworth, Abouo, and Emery will have a little more pride and hold him to a handful of contested baskets this time around. Ogide and Franklin are the keys for BYU: hold those two to under 35 points combined and BYU should hold CSU to under 70. If they do that, they'll win easily and move their record against the RPI top 50 to 8-1, with a 4-0 at home. Cougars 84, Rams 66.
This game against Colorado State is pretty similar to BYU's first round NCAA Tournament game. It is an opponent they should beat, but is still probably good enough to be in the tournament. It is a "desperate" team fighting for its postseason life, just like the tournament will be. It's a balanced team, with a solid starting five at every position. There are some matchups that even favor CSU. The biggest difference between this game and the first round of the NCAA Tournament? This one is at home instead of a neutral site. As my father so aptly pointed out in a comment on the last post: if BYU can't win this one, they don't deserve a high seed in the tournament. I go one step further, if BYU can't win this one (and easily), you may want to think twice about how far you put them in your tournament bracket.
Last Time
BYU outscored this CSU team on the road last time, 94-85. Since scoring 85 against BYU in Fort Collins, CSU has scored 69, 74, 54, 59, 68, 69, and 61, with a 5-2 record in that span. BYU has scored 71, 77, 69, 78, 90, 72, and 79, going 6-1 since that game. While both teams offense has dipped since that shootout, BYU has maintained a higher level of scoring (with 4 of the 7 games on the road, compared to 3 of 7 for the Rams). And Jimmer scored under 30 points in 5 of the 7 games. So they are scoring more, from more places. CSU has become very big-man oriented the past few games. That leads to high-percentage shooting, but if Davies and Hartsock avoid foul trouble, CSU doesn't have other scoring options. The other factor is that BYU's 2-3 defense has been better of late, which will make it more difficult to score inside as well.
Jimmermania
This is the part of the first half of the conference schedule where Jimmer really got going. Part of that was the need, with so many other guys struggling the first round. Part of it was the competitive level of Jimmer, knowing that these are the three teams (CSU, SDSU, and New Mexico) that BYU needs to beat. Other guys aren't struggling right now, most of the team is playing well. However, BYU still needs this win, so I would expect Jimmer to still do some Jimmerific things. For a stretch he was overdribbling, overshooting, and trying to do too much. He can still perform at an insanely high level within the framework of the offense. I think he lost sight of that a little bit for those few games he wasn't getting the calls. I would expect a game where he shoots a higher percentage, turns the ball over less, and gets more assists. If not, it is probably a bad omen going into Saturday's game at SDSU.
Keys and Prediction
BYU should win this game running away. It is a team that they beat on the road by 9, with two starters in foul trouble, in the most electric atmosphere CSU has had at home in a long time. BYU fans should worry somewhat about Ogide who had a double-double against BYU the first time. Wes Eikmeier also torched BYU for 25 points, including 5 three pointers. However, Eikmeier's best scoring output on the road in MWC play was 14 points and 2 threes. I think Collinsworth, Abouo, and Emery will have a little more pride and hold him to a handful of contested baskets this time around. Ogide and Franklin are the keys for BYU: hold those two to under 35 points combined and BYU should hold CSU to under 70. If they do that, they'll win easily and move their record against the RPI top 50 to 8-1, with a 4-0 at home. Cougars 84, Rams 66.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
"Soft" Bubble and A Week to Prep
"Soft" Bubble
This has been a commonplace term these days in college basketball. Is this the "softest" bubble ever? First, let's define what the Bubble is. The Bubble is a list of teams that have not played their way into the NCAA Tournament just yet. They are not good enough to be a single digit seed, and they are inconsistent enough that they might be an NIT team. So the Bubble is a collection of average teams with moments of brilliance, or brilliant teams with way too many moments of averageness. By its own definition, the Bubble is soft, it is entirely reduntant to call the Bubble soft.
The collection of teams on the Bubble this year have the same number of quality wins as last year. They have the same number of bad losses too. The Bubble this year is the same as the Bubble every year. The only difference between this year and last year is that there will be 3 less snubs because of 3 more at-large bids this season. Don't call the Bubble soft, just call it the Bubble.
The Week Off
A lot of people are doing a lot of crying about San Diego State having a bye before BYU both times when they play them. 1) That is the MWC schedule, deal with it. The schedule is set-up like that. Every year every team plays one team coming off a bye, twice. This year, BYU just happened to get the short end with SDSU getting the rest. 2) It is not a guaranteed advantage. Take, for instance, the last time BYU played SDSU after a bye and beat them by 13 points.
SDSU took Sunday and Monday off, when they would normally practice and prepare for games. So they will be rested. However, they are taking two days off of organized opportunities to improve. They will also go a week between games. There is definitely a chance to get a bit rusty and out-of-sync, particularly when the season is so regimented and structured. If it takes 10 minutes to get back into it, who knows what the score may be...on the other hand, if they come out gangbusters, then the rest was good for them and they used it properly. It is just like the argument about BYU and return missionaries: when they win, they have an unfair advantage, when they lose, the missions are killing them. BYU had a nice set-up as well: bye before a nice get the rust off game at TCU, followed with a game that will challenge them on Wednesday, all in preparation for the big one. No rust, there shouldn't be fatigue, and they should be mentally prepared having just been challenged at a high level.
This has been a commonplace term these days in college basketball. Is this the "softest" bubble ever? First, let's define what the Bubble is. The Bubble is a list of teams that have not played their way into the NCAA Tournament just yet. They are not good enough to be a single digit seed, and they are inconsistent enough that they might be an NIT team. So the Bubble is a collection of average teams with moments of brilliance, or brilliant teams with way too many moments of averageness. By its own definition, the Bubble is soft, it is entirely reduntant to call the Bubble soft.
The collection of teams on the Bubble this year have the same number of quality wins as last year. They have the same number of bad losses too. The Bubble this year is the same as the Bubble every year. The only difference between this year and last year is that there will be 3 less snubs because of 3 more at-large bids this season. Don't call the Bubble soft, just call it the Bubble.
The Week Off
A lot of people are doing a lot of crying about San Diego State having a bye before BYU both times when they play them. 1) That is the MWC schedule, deal with it. The schedule is set-up like that. Every year every team plays one team coming off a bye, twice. This year, BYU just happened to get the short end with SDSU getting the rest. 2) It is not a guaranteed advantage. Take, for instance, the last time BYU played SDSU after a bye and beat them by 13 points.
SDSU took Sunday and Monday off, when they would normally practice and prepare for games. So they will be rested. However, they are taking two days off of organized opportunities to improve. They will also go a week between games. There is definitely a chance to get a bit rusty and out-of-sync, particularly when the season is so regimented and structured. If it takes 10 minutes to get back into it, who knows what the score may be...on the other hand, if they come out gangbusters, then the rest was good for them and they used it properly. It is just like the argument about BYU and return missionaries: when they win, they have an unfair advantage, when they lose, the missions are killing them. BYU had a nice set-up as well: bye before a nice get the rust off game at TCU, followed with a game that will challenge them on Wednesday, all in preparation for the big one. No rust, there shouldn't be fatigue, and they should be mentally prepared having just been challenged at a high level.
Monday, February 21, 2011
2011 President's Day Thoughts
MWC a 3-Bid League
Barring a major upset in the MWC Tournament, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV will be the lone representatives from the MWC in the NCAA Tournament. It is also very likely that all three will receive single-digit seeds. New Mexico and Colorado State should be solid NIT teams, with CSU the more likely to get a home game in the first round. However, home losses by the Lobos (to Utah on a 3 at the buzzer) and Rams (to UNLV in a game controlled by the Rebels throughout) eliminated any realistic long-shot NCAA Tournament at-large bids. CSU could get back in the running by beating BYU and SDSU (both road games), but that is very unlikely. I would expect SDSU to get anywhere from a 1-3 seed. BYU should be 2-4. UNLV really could go anywhere from 6-11, depending on what the mood is of the Committee. Most of their quality wins came at home, but even at the Thomas & Mack they lost to two non-NCAA Tournament teams. They hold a win over Wisconsin at home and a neutral site win over K-State (without their two best players). Besides that, their best win was the one this weekend at Colorado State. If they can get one at the Pit on Wednesday, they would definitely secure a single-digit seed.
Crazy Rankings
I am not surprised BYU didn't move up in the polls (rising above ND in one of them). Where did anyone expect them to go? The top 4 teams lost, but BYU was never in jeopardy of jumping any of them this week with just a solitary win at TCU. If they go 2-0 this upcoming week, perhaps they could move into the top 5 next week. Maybe. No, the craziness in the rankings this week was that BYU received two 1st-place votes. They also received a 2nd-place vote. So where did these votes come from? If you guessed Jason Franchuk of the Provo Daily Herald, you are wrong. He had BYU at 6, which is about as high as I would feel comfortable putting them. No, the winners of the Bad Vote of the Week Award belong to an NPR guy from D.C. and a sports writer from Roanoke, Virginia. The 2nd place vote came from Tampa, Florida. I believe this is BYU's best team since Danny Ainge, and they belong in the top 10...but come on. I guess I can't blame them: they probably haven't been able to see BYU play! Both of the guys with BYU as #1 had SDSU as #2. I guess, if that is their logic, then BYU could be #1 with a 13-point head-to-head win over the #2 team...
BYU and the BCS Part III
A few weeks back I was looking at BYU's chances to make a BCS game in 2011. Part III from the series has not made it to print yet. The first part talked about the numbers game (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html) while the second part looked at BYU's competition for one of the spots from the non-BCS teams (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-ii.html). That is still coming, I can assure you. I'm sure you all were dying to read it...it will come sometime in the next few weeks. I will get a lot more into football stuff once the Madness ends, including JC/USC transfers and new recruits that may have a chance to see the field in 2011. For now, let's just all enjoy Jimmermania and hope for a good NCAA Tournament draw, because BYU's success in the Tourney will, in part, be determined by not getting screwed by the Committee.
Barring a major upset in the MWC Tournament, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV will be the lone representatives from the MWC in the NCAA Tournament. It is also very likely that all three will receive single-digit seeds. New Mexico and Colorado State should be solid NIT teams, with CSU the more likely to get a home game in the first round. However, home losses by the Lobos (to Utah on a 3 at the buzzer) and Rams (to UNLV in a game controlled by the Rebels throughout) eliminated any realistic long-shot NCAA Tournament at-large bids. CSU could get back in the running by beating BYU and SDSU (both road games), but that is very unlikely. I would expect SDSU to get anywhere from a 1-3 seed. BYU should be 2-4. UNLV really could go anywhere from 6-11, depending on what the mood is of the Committee. Most of their quality wins came at home, but even at the Thomas & Mack they lost to two non-NCAA Tournament teams. They hold a win over Wisconsin at home and a neutral site win over K-State (without their two best players). Besides that, their best win was the one this weekend at Colorado State. If they can get one at the Pit on Wednesday, they would definitely secure a single-digit seed.
Crazy Rankings
I am not surprised BYU didn't move up in the polls (rising above ND in one of them). Where did anyone expect them to go? The top 4 teams lost, but BYU was never in jeopardy of jumping any of them this week with just a solitary win at TCU. If they go 2-0 this upcoming week, perhaps they could move into the top 5 next week. Maybe. No, the craziness in the rankings this week was that BYU received two 1st-place votes. They also received a 2nd-place vote. So where did these votes come from? If you guessed Jason Franchuk of the Provo Daily Herald, you are wrong. He had BYU at 6, which is about as high as I would feel comfortable putting them. No, the winners of the Bad Vote of the Week Award belong to an NPR guy from D.C. and a sports writer from Roanoke, Virginia. The 2nd place vote came from Tampa, Florida. I believe this is BYU's best team since Danny Ainge, and they belong in the top 10...but come on. I guess I can't blame them: they probably haven't been able to see BYU play! Both of the guys with BYU as #1 had SDSU as #2. I guess, if that is their logic, then BYU could be #1 with a 13-point head-to-head win over the #2 team...
BYU and the BCS Part III
A few weeks back I was looking at BYU's chances to make a BCS game in 2011. Part III from the series has not made it to print yet. The first part talked about the numbers game (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html) while the second part looked at BYU's competition for one of the spots from the non-BCS teams (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-ii.html). That is still coming, I can assure you. I'm sure you all were dying to read it...it will come sometime in the next few weeks. I will get a lot more into football stuff once the Madness ends, including JC/USC transfers and new recruits that may have a chance to see the field in 2011. For now, let's just all enjoy Jimmermania and hope for a good NCAA Tournament draw, because BYU's success in the Tourney will, in part, be determined by not getting screwed by the Committee.
Friday, February 18, 2011
BYU-TCU Preview, 2/19/2011
BYU should take this game seriously after a fairly tight battle at home, which would spell doom for the Horned Frogs, who haven't won a game in 5.5 weeks. All but two of the 9 losses over that span have been by double-digits. Their best player was suspended, and the team has not responded. Worse yet, that suspended player was the man who shut Jimmer down in the first matchup. I'm sure Jimmer would love nothing more than matching his jersey number (32) in points against the Horned Frogs this time around.
Keys to the Game for BYU
1) Rust vs. Rest? Was the week off better to get their legs back or will it cause some shaky shooting. Collinsworth may be a bit rustier than the others, but he definitely needed the rest (his fatigued play looked a lot like rusty play...). Besides, the Cougars can use this game can shake the rust off before a difficult 3-game stretch starting next week. If BYU is REALLY rusty it may impact the outcome, but there is not reason that BYU shouldn't own this game from start to finish.
2) Collinsworth vs. Abouo? A lot of the talk this week has been about which player would start at the 3 in this game. I don't see any reason why both of them shouldn't play over 20 minutes. Jimmer can take a quick rest, Collinsworth can play the point on offense and Abouo could move up top in the 2-3 zone. Or if Davies or Hartsock get in foul trouble, those two can cover the 3/4 spots. If both are playing well, put them on the floor together. Give Jackson, Jimmer, and the big men a rest. The Cougars cannot go wrong.
3) Letdown vs. Ramp-up? Are the Cougars looking ahead to CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico? Or are they just ready to play after getting Wednesday night off?
If BYU is mentally unprepared and physically rusty, they may have issues. Even then, I think Jimmer could put the team on his back in the first half until the others find their mojo in the second, that is if they don't start with it in the first place. I look for Hartsock and Davies to get more touches and get more involved, particularly if they are going to guard Jimmer 30 feet away from the basket.
Prediction
BYU wins, and plays well for long stretches in the process. Cougars 83, Horned Frogs 63.
Keys to the Game for BYU
1) Rust vs. Rest? Was the week off better to get their legs back or will it cause some shaky shooting. Collinsworth may be a bit rustier than the others, but he definitely needed the rest (his fatigued play looked a lot like rusty play...). Besides, the Cougars can use this game can shake the rust off before a difficult 3-game stretch starting next week. If BYU is REALLY rusty it may impact the outcome, but there is not reason that BYU shouldn't own this game from start to finish.
2) Collinsworth vs. Abouo? A lot of the talk this week has been about which player would start at the 3 in this game. I don't see any reason why both of them shouldn't play over 20 minutes. Jimmer can take a quick rest, Collinsworth can play the point on offense and Abouo could move up top in the 2-3 zone. Or if Davies or Hartsock get in foul trouble, those two can cover the 3/4 spots. If both are playing well, put them on the floor together. Give Jackson, Jimmer, and the big men a rest. The Cougars cannot go wrong.
3) Letdown vs. Ramp-up? Are the Cougars looking ahead to CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico? Or are they just ready to play after getting Wednesday night off?
If BYU is mentally unprepared and physically rusty, they may have issues. Even then, I think Jimmer could put the team on his back in the first half until the others find their mojo in the second, that is if they don't start with it in the first place. I look for Hartsock and Davies to get more touches and get more involved, particularly if they are going to guard Jimmer 30 feet away from the basket.
Prediction
BYU wins, and plays well for long stretches in the process. Cougars 83, Horned Frogs 63.
MWC Hoops Preview, 2/19/2011
San Diego State at Air Force
There is a bit of a perfect storm brewing here. I do not anticipate it will lead to a Falcon win, but they do have a lot of things going for them. 1) The altitude. 2) SDSU's next game is against BYU. 3) This is an early 11am Pacific tip-off. 4) This follows a late Wednesday game for SDSU that wasn't decided until the final 10 seconds. 5) It comes just before a bye for SDSU, and some Aztecs may be "vacationing" early. 6) Billy White is coming off of a bruised hand against New Mexico. I think those factors could keep Air Force in the game, or at least prevent SDSU from running completely away with it. But SDSU is too dominant on the boards. In the first match-up, SDSU outrebounded Air Force by 15 and nearly had as many offensive rebounds as Air Force had total rebounds. I expect those numbers to be closer, particularly at altitude: SDSU will wear themselves out if they crash the boards too hard. It could be a much better game than it should be, because SDSU is clearly a much better team. Aztecs 60, Falcons 54.
UNLV at Colorado State
This is a huge game for both teams. UNLV needs a big road win to secure a single-digit seed. CSU needs any win against an NCAA Tournament team and a sweep over UNLV could go a long way on Selection Sunday (including put UNLV in jeopardy). In the first matchup, the Rebel big men got worked by the Rams. UNLV was atrocious shooting the ball and trailed from start to finish. The past two games the Rebels are 3-29 on threes. And the Ram big men have been playing extremely well the past few games. It sets up for a perfect chance for CSU to prove the win in Vegas wasn't a fluke. While UNLV has posted 3 road wins in conference, they have all come against the bottom half of the league, and in most of them they won because of the competition, not because of their performance. Shooting woes continue for UNLV, though you never, UNLV is one of those schizophrenic teams. Rams 69, Rebels 54.
Utah at New Mexico
Utah could take a commanding lead into 6th place with a win, and could even end up moving to 5th place with a win. However, I stand by my prediction that they get a 7-seed. New Mexico needs this win really badly, as they are coming off two straight hard-fought road losses. Nothing like a little home cooking to get things back on track. This win doesn't get them back in the discussion for the NCAA Tournament, but it does give them some separation from the bottom half of the league. Really not much to say: New Mexico is a great home team, Utah is a bad road team. New Mexico is a decent team. Decent left Utah two years ago. Lobos 76, Utes 61.
There is a bit of a perfect storm brewing here. I do not anticipate it will lead to a Falcon win, but they do have a lot of things going for them. 1) The altitude. 2) SDSU's next game is against BYU. 3) This is an early 11am Pacific tip-off. 4) This follows a late Wednesday game for SDSU that wasn't decided until the final 10 seconds. 5) It comes just before a bye for SDSU, and some Aztecs may be "vacationing" early. 6) Billy White is coming off of a bruised hand against New Mexico. I think those factors could keep Air Force in the game, or at least prevent SDSU from running completely away with it. But SDSU is too dominant on the boards. In the first match-up, SDSU outrebounded Air Force by 15 and nearly had as many offensive rebounds as Air Force had total rebounds. I expect those numbers to be closer, particularly at altitude: SDSU will wear themselves out if they crash the boards too hard. It could be a much better game than it should be, because SDSU is clearly a much better team. Aztecs 60, Falcons 54.
UNLV at Colorado State
This is a huge game for both teams. UNLV needs a big road win to secure a single-digit seed. CSU needs any win against an NCAA Tournament team and a sweep over UNLV could go a long way on Selection Sunday (including put UNLV in jeopardy). In the first matchup, the Rebel big men got worked by the Rams. UNLV was atrocious shooting the ball and trailed from start to finish. The past two games the Rebels are 3-29 on threes. And the Ram big men have been playing extremely well the past few games. It sets up for a perfect chance for CSU to prove the win in Vegas wasn't a fluke. While UNLV has posted 3 road wins in conference, they have all come against the bottom half of the league, and in most of them they won because of the competition, not because of their performance. Shooting woes continue for UNLV, though you never, UNLV is one of those schizophrenic teams. Rams 69, Rebels 54.
Utah at New Mexico
Utah could take a commanding lead into 6th place with a win, and could even end up moving to 5th place with a win. However, I stand by my prediction that they get a 7-seed. New Mexico needs this win really badly, as they are coming off two straight hard-fought road losses. Nothing like a little home cooking to get things back on track. This win doesn't get them back in the discussion for the NCAA Tournament, but it does give them some separation from the bottom half of the league. Really not much to say: New Mexico is a great home team, Utah is a bad road team. New Mexico is a decent team. Decent left Utah two years ago. Lobos 76, Utes 61.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
BYU Notes, 2/18/2011
Hoops Conference Title
BYU's destiny has always been in its own hands. However, now it is up to them, and no one else, to win the MWC Title. SDSU survived scares at CSU and UNLV, then held off New Mexico this past Wednesday night. BYU is now the only test between the Aztecs and an outright MWC championship. If BYU wins at SDSU, they win the conference. If BYU loses, SDSU should run off an unprecedented 15-1 record in the MWC. BYU will have to settle for second place for a second consecutive year. BYU's hopes for a conference title now rest solely in Jimmer's, I mean their own hands.
Football Scheduling Change
BYU has added a game with TCU on Friday, October 28th, at Cowboys Stadium. Instead of having a bye that weekend and playing at Louisiana Tech the following Saturday, BYU plays TCU and no longer plays the road game at LA Tech. The game will be on ESPN2.
This means that BYU's non-home schedule goes like this: at Ole Miss, at Texas, at Oregon State, vs. TCU, and at Hawaii. I would put that road schedule up against any other I-A football program's road schedule. If BYU finds a way to go 5-0 (definitely, definitely not an early prediction), it'd be tough to keep them out of the top 5. If BYU finds a way to go 0-5, it might be tough to get to a bowl game. Regardless of which way it goes (probably somewhere between those extremes), I imagine Bronco and the BYU team are pretty excited right now at the prospect of playing that schedule. Tom Holmoe said they wanted access and exposure, they definitely have it with that road schedule and with home games to be broadcast exclusively on ESPN networks and BYU-TV. Now the Cougars just have to deliver the goods...
BYU's destiny has always been in its own hands. However, now it is up to them, and no one else, to win the MWC Title. SDSU survived scares at CSU and UNLV, then held off New Mexico this past Wednesday night. BYU is now the only test between the Aztecs and an outright MWC championship. If BYU wins at SDSU, they win the conference. If BYU loses, SDSU should run off an unprecedented 15-1 record in the MWC. BYU will have to settle for second place for a second consecutive year. BYU's hopes for a conference title now rest solely in Jimmer's, I mean their own hands.
Football Scheduling Change
BYU has added a game with TCU on Friday, October 28th, at Cowboys Stadium. Instead of having a bye that weekend and playing at Louisiana Tech the following Saturday, BYU plays TCU and no longer plays the road game at LA Tech. The game will be on ESPN2.
This means that BYU's non-home schedule goes like this: at Ole Miss, at Texas, at Oregon State, vs. TCU, and at Hawaii. I would put that road schedule up against any other I-A football program's road schedule. If BYU finds a way to go 5-0 (definitely, definitely not an early prediction), it'd be tough to keep them out of the top 5. If BYU finds a way to go 0-5, it might be tough to get to a bowl game. Regardless of which way it goes (probably somewhere between those extremes), I imagine Bronco and the BYU team are pretty excited right now at the prospect of playing that schedule. Tom Holmoe said they wanted access and exposure, they definitely have it with that road schedule and with home games to be broadcast exclusively on ESPN networks and BYU-TV. Now the Cougars just have to deliver the goods...
Monday, February 14, 2011
Happy V-Day, Cougars: Love KU
Kansas gave BYU a nice Valentine's Day gift today: they lost. So BYU should more than likely wake up tomorrow morning as the #1 team in the land. In RPI. The Jayhawk loss should probably hurt them more than playing a road game against a top-50 RPI opponent will help them. The Cougars started the day .0037 points behind KU and .0045 ahead of #3 Georgetown. If BYU does move to #1, they should probably remain perched there until their game at TCU on Saturday hurts their Strength of Schedule, win or lose, and they drop to 2 or 3. Though if Georgetown wins at Connecticut on Wednesday, they may jump the Cougars on Thursday morning.
BYU was also helped by a Mississippi Valley State win tonight. Hawaii also leads Nevada by 5 at halftime. Those are two of BYU's worst RPI opponents, so any win they get is gravy. As BYU's opponents win, it helps their RPI. Also helping the Cougars is this little factoid: BYU played, and beat, 5 teams currently on top of their conference standings, including 3 ranked teams (Arizona, Utah State, and Saint Mary's). That may not be as impressive as a run through the Big East gauntlet, but how many top 10 teams can say they have played and beaten 5 (potential) conference champions (6, if you count SDSU)? The correct answer is 0. The most I could find was, surprisingly enough, SDSU's 3 wins over teams currently leading their conferences.
BYU was also helped by a Mississippi Valley State win tonight. Hawaii also leads Nevada by 5 at halftime. Those are two of BYU's worst RPI opponents, so any win they get is gravy. As BYU's opponents win, it helps their RPI. Also helping the Cougars is this little factoid: BYU played, and beat, 5 teams currently on top of their conference standings, including 3 ranked teams (Arizona, Utah State, and Saint Mary's). That may not be as impressive as a run through the Big East gauntlet, but how many top 10 teams can say they have played and beaten 5 (potential) conference champions (6, if you count SDSU)? The correct answer is 0. The most I could find was, surprisingly enough, SDSU's 3 wins over teams currently leading their conferences.
BYU and the NCAA Tournament, Valentine's Day Edition
Today: the Important Word
Most current bracketologists have BYU as a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Those projections are based on if the season ended today. The thing is: the season doesn't end today. There are a number of questions that are yet to be answered that will determine how BYU gets seeded for the tournament (obviously). Will BYU hold their #2 RPI ranking? Will BYU finish with 2 losses or will that number double? Will they win (or share, or neither) the MWC Title? How will they do in the MWC Tournament? Bracketologists don't project the answer to any of those questions when considering their brackets.
Chances are, if BYU loses another game or two, they will not hold their #2 ranking in the RPI. Chances are, BYU will lose another game (at SDSU, at home against CSU or UNM, or in the conference tournament, or some combination of those). It is looking increasingly likely that BYU will have to win at San Diego State to win the MWC regular season title. Then, they will probably have to beat two of the top 5 in the conference (SDSU, CSU, UNLV, New Mexico) to win the MWC tournament, which is no small feat.
BYU will lose at least one more game and will either not win the MWC regular season title, or will not win the MWC tournament title, or neither. How will that impact their seeding? Well, if they have 30 wins or more, they should still get a 3-seed in my opinion. If they end up with 5 losses, a 4-seed would be as high as they could get. If BYU somehow wins out in the regular season and wins the MWC Tournament, they would certainly finish as a 2-seed (or better??? Dare to dream...), but if they don't, they are probably looking at a 3-seed.
Tournament Locations
Teams that get seeded 1-4 in the NCAA Tournament are "protected" in terms of first weekend locations. If BYU does secure a top 4-seed, which they should given how they have played and how they probably will play down the stretch, they should probably be sent to Denver for the first two rounds. Perhaps they "fall" to Tucson if they end up as a 4 instead of a 2 or 3. Either way, they should be playing in a western location, with a large contingent of BYU fans, the first weekend of the tournament. That is unless they lose 3 (or more) games still, where they could feasibly fall to a 5 or a 6-seed. I wouldn't book my tickets to Denver just yet (though I don't have to because I'm already here and have that day off of work anyway: I always take the first Thursday of March Madness off), but, theoretically, it is as close to a lock as BYU has ever been in my memory...
Most current bracketologists have BYU as a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Those projections are based on if the season ended today. The thing is: the season doesn't end today. There are a number of questions that are yet to be answered that will determine how BYU gets seeded for the tournament (obviously). Will BYU hold their #2 RPI ranking? Will BYU finish with 2 losses or will that number double? Will they win (or share, or neither) the MWC Title? How will they do in the MWC Tournament? Bracketologists don't project the answer to any of those questions when considering their brackets.
Chances are, if BYU loses another game or two, they will not hold their #2 ranking in the RPI. Chances are, BYU will lose another game (at SDSU, at home against CSU or UNM, or in the conference tournament, or some combination of those). It is looking increasingly likely that BYU will have to win at San Diego State to win the MWC regular season title. Then, they will probably have to beat two of the top 5 in the conference (SDSU, CSU, UNLV, New Mexico) to win the MWC tournament, which is no small feat.
BYU will lose at least one more game and will either not win the MWC regular season title, or will not win the MWC tournament title, or neither. How will that impact their seeding? Well, if they have 30 wins or more, they should still get a 3-seed in my opinion. If they end up with 5 losses, a 4-seed would be as high as they could get. If BYU somehow wins out in the regular season and wins the MWC Tournament, they would certainly finish as a 2-seed (or better??? Dare to dream...), but if they don't, they are probably looking at a 3-seed.
Tournament Locations
Teams that get seeded 1-4 in the NCAA Tournament are "protected" in terms of first weekend locations. If BYU does secure a top 4-seed, which they should given how they have played and how they probably will play down the stretch, they should probably be sent to Denver for the first two rounds. Perhaps they "fall" to Tucson if they end up as a 4 instead of a 2 or 3. Either way, they should be playing in a western location, with a large contingent of BYU fans, the first weekend of the tournament. That is unless they lose 3 (or more) games still, where they could feasibly fall to a 5 or a 6-seed. I wouldn't book my tickets to Denver just yet (though I don't have to because I'm already here and have that day off of work anyway: I always take the first Thursday of March Madness off), but, theoretically, it is as close to a lock as BYU has ever been in my memory...
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Post Utah-BYU Thoughts, 2/12/2011
Toying With Them
I said BYU would either be focused and win by 30 or toy with the Utes and win by 15. They definitely toyed with them. How many shots did BYU miss within 5 feet of the basket tonight? It had to have been 10 or more. If BYU hit even half of those shots, they would have shot 50% and won by 20 or more. Brandon Davies was playing scared of the 7-foot twin towers, even though the pair ended up with only 2 blocks between them (maybe it was because of Davies' akward, ugly-looking fade-away hook shots). They got solid contributions from a lot of guys: Abouo's 22 carried the Cougars in the first half, Jackson's 6 steals allowed BYU to get in transition all game long (18 points), and the 30 rebounds from the BYU 3's, 4's, and 5's kept Utah from getting too many second chance points (9 for the game).
I Hate the Spurs
Jimmer managed to get 23 points despite being harassed all game long. But Jimmer has got to stop whingeing about calls. The past two games, he hasn't been getting some of the calls that he usually gets and he has let officials know about it. In some cases, he has very valid points, but he needs to adjust to how the game is being called. If he drives into the lane twice and gets mauled without a foul called, get a little more creative. He is a tough guy to officiate because he is involved in so much contact. But come on, just play Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker and quit your yapping at the refs. When the ref tells your coach you are getting out of control, it's time to look inside yourself and find a more Jimmer-ific way...
Big Game Got Bigger
With SDSU winning in Vegas tonight, both teams should enter the game (broadcast by CBS network TV on February 26th at noon MST) on big winning streaks. SDSU has New Mexico, at Air Force, and a bye prior to the game. They should enter at 27-1 and may possibly be in the top 5. BYU has a bye, plays at TCU, and hosts Colorado State. They should enter at 26-2, though they may not be any higher than they currently are (and may even drop a spot with continued high profile wins by Notre Dame and Georgetown). The winner of the game should win the conference title outright and probably finish 15-1 in the MWC. It is certainly unlikely that either of the two drops any other games at this point. [Though if I had to pick: New Mexico could win at SDSU if they can defend in transition better than they did in Albuquerque, and CSU could win at BYU if Davies and Hartsock get in foul trouble.]
MWC Tourney Update
Winner of the BYU-SDSU game should be the 1-seed at this point, barring any major upsets. If CSU beats UNLV in Fort Collins, they should lock-up the 3-seed. I've already said I think UNLV-New Mexico are 4/5 (and New Mexico knocks UNLV off in the first round), and that the bottom stays the same: Air Force, Utah, Wyoming, and TCU are 6-9, probably in that order, unless Wyoming wins at Utah on Wednesday.
Scouting Potential Second Round Competition
I watched the second half of the Kentucky-Vanderbilt game today. If BYU does get a 2-4 seed, they will likely get someone like those two teams as their second round opponent. My first thought was: BYU would have a very difficult time stopping a team like Vanderbilt. They move the ball around from side-to-side and attack any vulnerable areas. If any BYU defender is weak, or even if a great defender just slightly out of position, they would exploit that in a heartbeat, and BYU would have difficulty recovering in time. They have a couple of great three-point shooters, one or two phenomenal penetrators, and some highly skilled big men. No way BYU could stop all three without foul trouble. James Anderson and Logan Magnusson would get eaten alive.
My second thought was: BYU would find the going tough against a defense like Kentucky's. They combine extreme high-pressure with athleticism and recovery ability. They get in your face and if you beat them they can still get in front of you. BYU would have to force a lot of turnovers and get out in transition. Even then, the Wildcats have leapers at all five positions so an easy lay-up could turn into a block and get the ball going the other way for a lay-up.
My third thought was: BYU better hope to get those teams in Denver, at altitude, playing 2 games in three days. On a neutral court below 2,000 feet, BYU would have to hope to outscore Vanderbilt and hope their 2-3 zone was baffling enough to prevent UK from getting to 60 points. But Kentucky has a tight rotation, and, as a 5-7 seed, is going to have a more difficult first round game as it is anyway.
I said BYU would either be focused and win by 30 or toy with the Utes and win by 15. They definitely toyed with them. How many shots did BYU miss within 5 feet of the basket tonight? It had to have been 10 or more. If BYU hit even half of those shots, they would have shot 50% and won by 20 or more. Brandon Davies was playing scared of the 7-foot twin towers, even though the pair ended up with only 2 blocks between them (maybe it was because of Davies' akward, ugly-looking fade-away hook shots). They got solid contributions from a lot of guys: Abouo's 22 carried the Cougars in the first half, Jackson's 6 steals allowed BYU to get in transition all game long (18 points), and the 30 rebounds from the BYU 3's, 4's, and 5's kept Utah from getting too many second chance points (9 for the game).
I Hate the Spurs
Jimmer managed to get 23 points despite being harassed all game long. But Jimmer has got to stop whingeing about calls. The past two games, he hasn't been getting some of the calls that he usually gets and he has let officials know about it. In some cases, he has very valid points, but he needs to adjust to how the game is being called. If he drives into the lane twice and gets mauled without a foul called, get a little more creative. He is a tough guy to officiate because he is involved in so much contact. But come on, just play Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker and quit your yapping at the refs. When the ref tells your coach you are getting out of control, it's time to look inside yourself and find a more Jimmer-ific way...
Big Game Got Bigger
With SDSU winning in Vegas tonight, both teams should enter the game (broadcast by CBS network TV on February 26th at noon MST) on big winning streaks. SDSU has New Mexico, at Air Force, and a bye prior to the game. They should enter at 27-1 and may possibly be in the top 5. BYU has a bye, plays at TCU, and hosts Colorado State. They should enter at 26-2, though they may not be any higher than they currently are (and may even drop a spot with continued high profile wins by Notre Dame and Georgetown). The winner of the game should win the conference title outright and probably finish 15-1 in the MWC. It is certainly unlikely that either of the two drops any other games at this point. [Though if I had to pick: New Mexico could win at SDSU if they can defend in transition better than they did in Albuquerque, and CSU could win at BYU if Davies and Hartsock get in foul trouble.]
MWC Tourney Update
Winner of the BYU-SDSU game should be the 1-seed at this point, barring any major upsets. If CSU beats UNLV in Fort Collins, they should lock-up the 3-seed. I've already said I think UNLV-New Mexico are 4/5 (and New Mexico knocks UNLV off in the first round), and that the bottom stays the same: Air Force, Utah, Wyoming, and TCU are 6-9, probably in that order, unless Wyoming wins at Utah on Wednesday.
Scouting Potential Second Round Competition
I watched the second half of the Kentucky-Vanderbilt game today. If BYU does get a 2-4 seed, they will likely get someone like those two teams as their second round opponent. My first thought was: BYU would have a very difficult time stopping a team like Vanderbilt. They move the ball around from side-to-side and attack any vulnerable areas. If any BYU defender is weak, or even if a great defender just slightly out of position, they would exploit that in a heartbeat, and BYU would have difficulty recovering in time. They have a couple of great three-point shooters, one or two phenomenal penetrators, and some highly skilled big men. No way BYU could stop all three without foul trouble. James Anderson and Logan Magnusson would get eaten alive.
My second thought was: BYU would find the going tough against a defense like Kentucky's. They combine extreme high-pressure with athleticism and recovery ability. They get in your face and if you beat them they can still get in front of you. BYU would have to force a lot of turnovers and get out in transition. Even then, the Wildcats have leapers at all five positions so an easy lay-up could turn into a block and get the ball going the other way for a lay-up.
My third thought was: BYU better hope to get those teams in Denver, at altitude, playing 2 games in three days. On a neutral court below 2,000 feet, BYU would have to hope to outscore Vanderbilt and hope their 2-3 zone was baffling enough to prevent UK from getting to 60 points. But Kentucky has a tight rotation, and, as a 5-7 seed, is going to have a more difficult first round game as it is anyway.
Too Funny to NOT Post
http://alexandria32.blogspot.com/2011/02/jimmer-got-jimmered.html
A little humor for a Utah-BYU gameday! And, of course, this one:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/23046/the-jimmer-inspires-court-intruder-song
A little humor for a Utah-BYU gameday! And, of course, this one:
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/23046/the-jimmer-inspires-court-intruder-song
Utah-BYU Preview, 2/12/2011
A buddy of mine in the heart of Salt Lake often runs his mouth when it comes to the rivalry game, regardless of the sport. Prior to the game at the Huntsman Center, his taunt directed at Utah fans led to a fairly lengthy thread of comments on Facebook. As of yesterday afternoon, no such taunt had been posted on his account, so I called him out on it. He retorted that "the Ute fans don't care. It's no fun to talk trash without any argument." I think that about sums up Utah basketball right now, and probably for the foreseeable future. Whoever takes over after Boylen (if not next season, certainly the one after that) will have a large rebuilding project, and will have to do it in a rising Pac 12 conference, with UCLA, Arizona, and Washington State showing signs of life. Colorado has also been improving in the Big 12.
So now, here is a list of things I am watching for today, since I think the outcome of the game is fairly obvious.
Utah
1) Are they going to finally score some points? In the last 3 games they have scored 54, 49, and 53. They haven't had more than two guys score in double figures since January 29th. They haven't won a game since January 22nd. They have only scored more than 70 points on the road twice all season: 75 in a win at TCU and 79 in a loss at Portland. You have to figure they need at least 70 points to have any shot of being within reach of BYU. With Watkins ability to drive (and BYU's inability to keep penetration out of the lane), it will be up to the 3-point shooters to hit open shots. Utah is under 34% on the season from three. They will have to be better to score points.
2) How will they stop Jimmer and BYU? Last game they guarded The Jimmer with 7 different players. While he had the "hardest" time against Will Clyburn, it's tough to say he had a hard time against anybody when he scored 47 points on 57% shooting, 67% from the three-point line, and 9-9 on free throws, while dishing out 6 assists. All five starters got in double figures. BYU had its best offensive road output of the season at Utah. Will the Utes play any zone? What other tactics will they try? Nothing worked last time.
3) How do they start the game? They are coming off an embarrassing performance at SDSU, combined with the 25-point blowout loss to BYU earlier in the season. Do they have any pride? Are they going to quit or will they come out fighting? The answer to that question may very well determine Boylen's future. Of course, if they come out literally fighting (see backhand slap from Marshall on Emery during last season's game in Provo), that may decide Boylen's future as well...
BYU
1) Will the role players (read: non-Jimmers) continue to roll? Rogers and Abouo have played well offensively for a few straight games. Emery got hot again in the second half at Air Force. Hartsock showed flashes of confidence and shooting ability at Air Force as well. Davies has scored in double figures in every conference game but the foul-ridden fest against UNLV. BYU will need contributions from everyone over the next three weeks in games against CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico. The next two against Utah and at TCU are games where those guys can get rolling. Collinsworth will also need to re-emerge. Perhaps his injury will give him the rest he needs to find his legs again for the stretch run.
2) Can they avoid a letdown? Will the 25-point road win against Utah cause them to blow them off this time around? They have said the right things when they were interviewed this week about taking Utah seriously, but they were saying the right things before the near debacle at Wyoming too...plus, the "bye" comes next week, and some guys may be MIA a day too early. It has happened before.
3) Will the string of 6 blocks continue? BYU has had three straight games with 6 blocks. BYU cannot allow easy points to Utah, they cannot let Utah feel like anything is easy or they might gain some confidence and give BYU a run. Nothing says "get out of my house" like a half-dozen swats.
Prediction
I would be shocked if Jimmer went off on Utah again, unless nobody else shows up, and he needs to. If Rogers and Emery continue to hit threes, Davies continues to score in the post, and BYU continues to get out in transition, then Jimmer won't need to score even 20 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see four or five Cougars in double figures again today. BYU may be locked in and blow them out by 35, or they may toy with them and only win by 15 or 20. Either way, BYU should score at least 80 and Utah should score less than 65. BYU 84, Utah 62
So now, here is a list of things I am watching for today, since I think the outcome of the game is fairly obvious.
Utah
1) Are they going to finally score some points? In the last 3 games they have scored 54, 49, and 53. They haven't had more than two guys score in double figures since January 29th. They haven't won a game since January 22nd. They have only scored more than 70 points on the road twice all season: 75 in a win at TCU and 79 in a loss at Portland. You have to figure they need at least 70 points to have any shot of being within reach of BYU. With Watkins ability to drive (and BYU's inability to keep penetration out of the lane), it will be up to the 3-point shooters to hit open shots. Utah is under 34% on the season from three. They will have to be better to score points.
2) How will they stop Jimmer and BYU? Last game they guarded The Jimmer with 7 different players. While he had the "hardest" time against Will Clyburn, it's tough to say he had a hard time against anybody when he scored 47 points on 57% shooting, 67% from the three-point line, and 9-9 on free throws, while dishing out 6 assists. All five starters got in double figures. BYU had its best offensive road output of the season at Utah. Will the Utes play any zone? What other tactics will they try? Nothing worked last time.
3) How do they start the game? They are coming off an embarrassing performance at SDSU, combined with the 25-point blowout loss to BYU earlier in the season. Do they have any pride? Are they going to quit or will they come out fighting? The answer to that question may very well determine Boylen's future. Of course, if they come out literally fighting (see backhand slap from Marshall on Emery during last season's game in Provo), that may decide Boylen's future as well...
BYU
1) Will the role players (read: non-Jimmers) continue to roll? Rogers and Abouo have played well offensively for a few straight games. Emery got hot again in the second half at Air Force. Hartsock showed flashes of confidence and shooting ability at Air Force as well. Davies has scored in double figures in every conference game but the foul-ridden fest against UNLV. BYU will need contributions from everyone over the next three weeks in games against CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico. The next two against Utah and at TCU are games where those guys can get rolling. Collinsworth will also need to re-emerge. Perhaps his injury will give him the rest he needs to find his legs again for the stretch run.
2) Can they avoid a letdown? Will the 25-point road win against Utah cause them to blow them off this time around? They have said the right things when they were interviewed this week about taking Utah seriously, but they were saying the right things before the near debacle at Wyoming too...plus, the "bye" comes next week, and some guys may be MIA a day too early. It has happened before.
3) Will the string of 6 blocks continue? BYU has had three straight games with 6 blocks. BYU cannot allow easy points to Utah, they cannot let Utah feel like anything is easy or they might gain some confidence and give BYU a run. Nothing says "get out of my house" like a half-dozen swats.
Prediction
I would be shocked if Jimmer went off on Utah again, unless nobody else shows up, and he needs to. If Rogers and Emery continue to hit threes, Davies continues to score in the post, and BYU continues to get out in transition, then Jimmer won't need to score even 20 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see four or five Cougars in double figures again today. BYU may be locked in and blow them out by 35, or they may toy with them and only win by 15 or 20. Either way, BYU should score at least 80 and Utah should score less than 65. BYU 84, Utah 62
Friday, February 11, 2011
MWC Preview, 2/12/2011
SDSU at UNLV
This is a must-win for UNLV. Their tournament resume is getting worse each week. They could easily lose three more regular season games. They need to get this one. Plus, they lost a close one in San Diego and are probably itching for a little payback. SDSU, on the other hand, has been finding ways to win. They have been streaky, even with all of the wins, playing a lot of less-than-stellar games. UNLV is the type that can take advantage of SDSU not playing well, particularly at home. Both teams have streaky shooters: SDSU makes up for it with strong defense and stellar offensive rebounding, UNLV makes up for it with high-pressure defense and a huge homecourt advantage. I'm going with the home team over the potentially thin Aztecs (Chase Tapley is a game-time decision: averaging 23 minutes and 9 points/game). Rebels rise to the occasion, lock in on an NCAA Tournament bid: UNLV 67, SDSU 58
TCU at Wyoming
Battle for last place...Wyoming has been playing teams tough. TCU has played bad teams tough, and been blown out by everyone else. Cowboys 71, Horned Frogs 60
New Mexico at Colorado State
Another game with huge implications on the MWC seeding. New Mexico is 1-3 on the road in MWC play. CSU is 3-2 at home. New Mexico is playing better of late. Colorado State needs this game in a bad way. The home crowd will spur them on with a sense of urgency. In the end, the MWC is still a tough league to get a road win in, and it's tough to go against the Rams as such. While SDSU and New Mexico are both capable of pulling off road wins, I think the homecourt helps the home team shoot a bit better in these toss-up games. I'm probably going to be wrong on both...Rams 75, Lobos 69
This is a must-win for UNLV. Their tournament resume is getting worse each week. They could easily lose three more regular season games. They need to get this one. Plus, they lost a close one in San Diego and are probably itching for a little payback. SDSU, on the other hand, has been finding ways to win. They have been streaky, even with all of the wins, playing a lot of less-than-stellar games. UNLV is the type that can take advantage of SDSU not playing well, particularly at home. Both teams have streaky shooters: SDSU makes up for it with strong defense and stellar offensive rebounding, UNLV makes up for it with high-pressure defense and a huge homecourt advantage. I'm going with the home team over the potentially thin Aztecs (Chase Tapley is a game-time decision: averaging 23 minutes and 9 points/game). Rebels rise to the occasion, lock in on an NCAA Tournament bid: UNLV 67, SDSU 58
TCU at Wyoming
Battle for last place...Wyoming has been playing teams tough. TCU has played bad teams tough, and been blown out by everyone else. Cowboys 71, Horned Frogs 60
New Mexico at Colorado State
Another game with huge implications on the MWC seeding. New Mexico is 1-3 on the road in MWC play. CSU is 3-2 at home. New Mexico is playing better of late. Colorado State needs this game in a bad way. The home crowd will spur them on with a sense of urgency. In the end, the MWC is still a tough league to get a road win in, and it's tough to go against the Rams as such. While SDSU and New Mexico are both capable of pulling off road wins, I think the homecourt helps the home team shoot a bit better in these toss-up games. I'm probably going to be wrong on both...Rams 75, Lobos 69
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Looking to MWC Tourney, 2/11/2011
8/9 Seeds
This looks like a lock for a TCU-Wyoming play-in game, unless Wyoming beats TCU and wins at Utah, then they could feasibly move up to 7th (not gonna happen). Both teams are 1-9. They do play each other though, so the winner has a leg-up to wear the home uniforms in the MWC tournament. From the #1 seed's perspective, they would rather see TCU win the play-in game, as they are 100 spots higher in the RPI, so it won't damage their Strength of Schedule as much.
6/7 Seeds
Utah has all but locked the 7th seed up. Air Force holds the tie-breaker, and is one game ahead in the standings, so the Utes would have to win two more games than Air Force does the rest of the season to take over 6th place. Utah has, at most, two wins left on the schedule, so if Air Force can win even one more game, they would wrap up 6th place. Air Force still has games against Wyoming and TCU.
3 through 5 Seeds
CSU has the leg up for the 3-seed right now, as they host both UNM and UNLV. All three teams have at least two tough road games the rest of the season: CSU at BYU and at SDSU, UNLV at CSU and at UNM, UNM at CSU, at SDSU, and at BYU. So CSU has the advantage right now, but any of the three could get the top spot. CSU is 6-3, UNLV 6-4, and UNM 5-4. There could be a lot of clarity after this weekend with New Mexico at CSU and UNLV hosting SDSU. If CSU and SDSU win, 3-seed in all likelihood belongs to the Rams. If New Mexico and UNLV win, it is even more jumbled than before with all having 4 conference losses.
1/2 Seeds
These two belong to BYU and SDSU. The only question will be which order is it going to be? If SDSU wins at UNLV this Saturday, they would have a serious leg-up. BYU would have to beat SDSU to have any chance to tie or beat them in the standings. SDSU should not lose any other game on their schedule besides the potential losses at UNLV and against BYU. So, 15-1, 14-2, or 13-3.
If UNLV beats SDSU, BYU has a slight leg-up, seeing as how they should be able to win every other conference game but the one at SDSU. Both would then finish at 14-2, even if SDSU wins the game against BYU. If both teams end up in a tie for first, the tie-breakers are as follows: 1) head-to-head (I assume they split), 2) compare record against 3rd-place team, if their records are identical against the 3rd place team, they go to 4th, 5th, etc. One note, if two teams tie for 4th, they skip down to 6th place as all tie-breakers are decided from the top down (i.e. can't break the 4th place tie until the 1st place tie is broken). After exhausting those options, RPI is used to determine the seeding. BYU would hold the advantage in record against UNLV, SDSU would hold it against New Mexico. BYU should hold the advantage in RPI at season's end as well. So their hope would be that UNLV finishes tied with, or ahead of, New Mexico in the standings, to guarantee them the 1-seed. If they are tied, RPI would break the tie. If they are ahead, BYU's 2-0 record against UNLV would break the tie. If New Mexico is ahead, SDSU's 2-0 record against the Lobos would break the tie. That is, of course, assuming BYU wants the 1-seed...UNLV is likely playing in the 4/5 matchup (or at least I believe they will), so they would play the 1-seed in Round 2. BYU would probably just as soon let two other teams have the chance to knock them off than have to try to do it themselves on Friday. I believe a 4/5 New Mexico vs. UNLV game would eliminate UNLV, so BYU wouldn't have to face UNLV anyway...
This looks like a lock for a TCU-Wyoming play-in game, unless Wyoming beats TCU and wins at Utah, then they could feasibly move up to 7th (not gonna happen). Both teams are 1-9. They do play each other though, so the winner has a leg-up to wear the home uniforms in the MWC tournament. From the #1 seed's perspective, they would rather see TCU win the play-in game, as they are 100 spots higher in the RPI, so it won't damage their Strength of Schedule as much.
6/7 Seeds
Utah has all but locked the 7th seed up. Air Force holds the tie-breaker, and is one game ahead in the standings, so the Utes would have to win two more games than Air Force does the rest of the season to take over 6th place. Utah has, at most, two wins left on the schedule, so if Air Force can win even one more game, they would wrap up 6th place. Air Force still has games against Wyoming and TCU.
3 through 5 Seeds
CSU has the leg up for the 3-seed right now, as they host both UNM and UNLV. All three teams have at least two tough road games the rest of the season: CSU at BYU and at SDSU, UNLV at CSU and at UNM, UNM at CSU, at SDSU, and at BYU. So CSU has the advantage right now, but any of the three could get the top spot. CSU is 6-3, UNLV 6-4, and UNM 5-4. There could be a lot of clarity after this weekend with New Mexico at CSU and UNLV hosting SDSU. If CSU and SDSU win, 3-seed in all likelihood belongs to the Rams. If New Mexico and UNLV win, it is even more jumbled than before with all having 4 conference losses.
1/2 Seeds
These two belong to BYU and SDSU. The only question will be which order is it going to be? If SDSU wins at UNLV this Saturday, they would have a serious leg-up. BYU would have to beat SDSU to have any chance to tie or beat them in the standings. SDSU should not lose any other game on their schedule besides the potential losses at UNLV and against BYU. So, 15-1, 14-2, or 13-3.
If UNLV beats SDSU, BYU has a slight leg-up, seeing as how they should be able to win every other conference game but the one at SDSU. Both would then finish at 14-2, even if SDSU wins the game against BYU. If both teams end up in a tie for first, the tie-breakers are as follows: 1) head-to-head (I assume they split), 2) compare record against 3rd-place team, if their records are identical against the 3rd place team, they go to 4th, 5th, etc. One note, if two teams tie for 4th, they skip down to 6th place as all tie-breakers are decided from the top down (i.e. can't break the 4th place tie until the 1st place tie is broken). After exhausting those options, RPI is used to determine the seeding. BYU would hold the advantage in record against UNLV, SDSU would hold it against New Mexico. BYU should hold the advantage in RPI at season's end as well. So their hope would be that UNLV finishes tied with, or ahead of, New Mexico in the standings, to guarantee them the 1-seed. If they are tied, RPI would break the tie. If they are ahead, BYU's 2-0 record against UNLV would break the tie. If New Mexico is ahead, SDSU's 2-0 record against the Lobos would break the tie. That is, of course, assuming BYU wants the 1-seed...UNLV is likely playing in the 4/5 matchup (or at least I believe they will), so they would play the 1-seed in Round 2. BYU would probably just as soon let two other teams have the chance to knock them off than have to try to do it themselves on Friday. I believe a 4/5 New Mexico vs. UNLV game would eliminate UNLV, so BYU wouldn't have to face UNLV anyway...
Recap of BYU-Air Force 2/9/2011
Team Effort
The game highlighted a lot of the skills of this BYU team. Rogers ability to shoot. Jackson's ability to hit threes and play defense. Noah's shot-blocking ability. Davies efficiency around the basket. Abouo's athleticism. Magnusson's rebounding skill. Zylstra's whiteness. Martineau's hairstyle. Everybody who dressed played. Everyone who played made a positive contribution of some sort. When BYU plays like that, there are few teams that BYU couldn't play with. The only thing: BYU doesn't play beautiful basketball like that against those few teams that are much better and athletic than them. Still, it is impressive that they put it together like that on the road in conference play, against a top-100 RPI opponent.
Heating Up
Stephen Rogers and Jackson Emery appear to be back to their hot shooting from earlier in the year. Noah also hit a triple for the first time in what feels like forever (it looked like the first time he felt comfortable, set, and confident in shooting one in a while as well: 20-point leads can do that to a guy). Jimmer got more open looks from three in one game against the Falcons than he has the entire rest of the conference season combined. This is a good stretch for BYU: they need to get it rolling in this three-game stretch against the bottom half of the league (@Air Force, Utah, @TCU) before they hit a 3-game stretch against the top half (CSU, @SDSU, New Mexico).
Letdown
BYU should be leary of a potential let-down game. I believe one of the reasons they performed so well against Air Force is the exact reason they may lay an egg against Utah. Air Force played with BYU at home, so BYU had to play with extra motivation on the road. However, BYU, and The Jimmer, dominated Utah on the road, so they may take them more lightly at home. I realize the difference between the teams right now is large, but BYU cannot let Utah think they have a chance in that game for one minute. Also, with a bye coming up after the game, some of the mentally weaker players may start "vacationing" a bit early. I don't see any reason to rush Collinsworth back from injury with how Abouo played defensively. However, as much as I do not want to say this, they could probably use Anderson in the post against Utah's two 7-footers, if he is able to go. It is the only matchup of Centers where he may be the more athletic...
The game highlighted a lot of the skills of this BYU team. Rogers ability to shoot. Jackson's ability to hit threes and play defense. Noah's shot-blocking ability. Davies efficiency around the basket. Abouo's athleticism. Magnusson's rebounding skill. Zylstra's whiteness. Martineau's hairstyle. Everybody who dressed played. Everyone who played made a positive contribution of some sort. When BYU plays like that, there are few teams that BYU couldn't play with. The only thing: BYU doesn't play beautiful basketball like that against those few teams that are much better and athletic than them. Still, it is impressive that they put it together like that on the road in conference play, against a top-100 RPI opponent.
Heating Up
Stephen Rogers and Jackson Emery appear to be back to their hot shooting from earlier in the year. Noah also hit a triple for the first time in what feels like forever (it looked like the first time he felt comfortable, set, and confident in shooting one in a while as well: 20-point leads can do that to a guy). Jimmer got more open looks from three in one game against the Falcons than he has the entire rest of the conference season combined. This is a good stretch for BYU: they need to get it rolling in this three-game stretch against the bottom half of the league (@Air Force, Utah, @TCU) before they hit a 3-game stretch against the top half (CSU, @SDSU, New Mexico).
Letdown
BYU should be leary of a potential let-down game. I believe one of the reasons they performed so well against Air Force is the exact reason they may lay an egg against Utah. Air Force played with BYU at home, so BYU had to play with extra motivation on the road. However, BYU, and The Jimmer, dominated Utah on the road, so they may take them more lightly at home. I realize the difference between the teams right now is large, but BYU cannot let Utah think they have a chance in that game for one minute. Also, with a bye coming up after the game, some of the mentally weaker players may start "vacationing" a bit early. I don't see any reason to rush Collinsworth back from injury with how Abouo played defensively. However, as much as I do not want to say this, they could probably use Anderson in the post against Utah's two 7-footers, if he is able to go. It is the only matchup of Centers where he may be the more athletic...
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
BYU-Air Force Preview, 2/9/2011
Air Force Offensively
They have 5 capable scorers and 2 wild cards. G Michael Lyons, F Tom Fow, F Derek Brooks, C Taylor Broekhuis, and G Evan Washington are all capable of putting up double-digit points. F Zach Bohannon can be a great scorer as well, but is more inconsistent this season. Reserve G Mike Fitzgerald hit 3 threes against BYU in Provo, so he cannot be counted out either.
Evan Washington tends to force the action more than any other Falcon, so if he is on, he can score quickly. If he is off, the offense and team struggles. He has done a better job this season of pacing and better shot selection. He is clearly the most athletic Falcon, but has learned to accept the team concept better in his senior year. The Falcons do not score a lot of points (66/game, 63.2/game in MWC play), so all of their possessions have to count, so he cannot get out of control.
As MWC fans know, Air Force runs a very deliberate, low-risk offense. There is a lot of spacing, combined with back cuts and back screens. They are difficult to zone against, because they have 5 perimeter shooters on the court. They are difficult to man-up against because of all of the back cuts, screens, and rolls. They also do not take bad shots. They just work the ball around until they get a good shot or until the shot clock runs down when they create off of the dribble. They average just over 6 offensive rebounds a game, so they must shoot a high percentage to be effective. Problem is: they typically shoot a high percentage.
Air Force Defensively
The Falcons employ a matchup zone, for those unfamiliar with the term, it is similar to a 3-2, but not really (I just wanted you to get an idea of the shape of the zone). It is a low-risk defense to go with their low-risk offense. They don't apply a lot of ball pressure so you can relax, but they also focus on staying between their man and the basket, so you don't get many open looks. It is essentially the opposite of UNLV's in-your-face, take chances that sometimes lead to wide-open looks, defense that BYU faced on Saturday. BYU cannot get lulled into security, just because they do not have to rush and push and drive and skip pass. The Falcon defense gives up 63.5/game, 65.1/game in MWC play.
I do not envision they will change their identity much to account for The Jimmer. They will do what they do best: zone. They may have a wrinkle or two in store for him, but they lack the athleticism to expect to recover from double teams to get out to shooters. Of course that also means they lack the athleticism to stay in front of The Jimmer. Not a lot of teams have tried zoning BYU this season, so it will be interesting to see how that matchup zone works out for them at home.
BYU at Clune Arena
Under Dave Rose, BYU has never scored more than 71 points at Air Force. Last season, Jimmer only played 18 minutes as he was recovering from Mono at the time. Hartsock and Davies both had foul trouble and saw limited minutes. It was Jackson Emery that led all scorers with 21 points, including 5 three-pointers. In the game two seasons ago, Jimmer led all scorers with 20 points, as BYU had 71 in the only game they have played at Clune with a healthy, in the starting lineup, Jimmer Fredette.
BYU's Advantages
The Cougars are a much better rebounding team than the Falcons, on both ends of the floor. They average twice as many offensive rebounds/game as the Falcons, and 11 more total rebounds/game. They also record more steals and blocks/game than the Falcons, though on a per possession basis, the teams are essentially equivalent. Air Force games have fewer possessions, so they record fewer stats. BYU does a better job of taking care of the ball than the younger, more inexperienced Falcons, even with more possessions/game. They are expecting a sellout crowd, which is 3,000 more fans than any home game the Falcons have had this season. Either their fan base recently got enthusiastic for no reason, or there will be a lot of BYU fans there. Either way, the energy will probably better suit a more experienced BYU.
Air Force's Advantages
The Falcons are a much better shooting team, in terms of percentages. A higher percentage of their baskets are also "assisted" baskets. They are playing at home, so even if 25% of the crowd is there to watch Jimmer and BYU, they still hold that advantage.
How BYU Wins
They need to push tempo, guard the rim, and dominate the glass. The more possessions they have, the better chance they have to win, since some of the Cougars are "volume shooters," i.e. they need more shots to get going/scoring. The fewer successful back-door cuts the Falcons get, the less likely they are to score. Solid rebounding will lead to fast breaks, or easy second-chance points.
How Air Force Wins
Put the brakes on, defend the post, and easy buckets. They must slow the game down and make BYU defend for 30-35 seconds, since that is the weak side of their game. They must be able to defend Hartsock and Davies without having to abandon outside shooters. They need to get creative on offense to create situations where they have open shooters on the edge and/or open cuts to the lane. If shooters hit, BYU will lean outside, which opens up the cutters. If cutters get through, they cheat inside, freeing up outside shooters.
Prediction
Air Force is much improved from last year's team that lost by 18 points at home to BYU. BYU is looking every bit as good as last year's NCAA Tournament team, though not as deep. Can Rogers and Abouo play well for a second straight game if needed? This is a game where Logan Magnusson could contribute if foul trouble plagues the BYU big men. I think The Jimmer is also ready for another big performance. You could say he is due, after 3 straight games under 40 points, in only one of which he scored over 30. Jimmer saves his best performances for when his team needs him the most. With depth/health concerns, on the road, in front of a sellout crowd, his team may need him again. At least one non-starter will probably go for 10 points, The Jimmer will score 35, and BYU wins a good game at Clune Arena. It didn't work out for me to be there, but Flavordave and Mr. HT Johansen are going to carry the torch for me. Enjoy. Cougars 74, Falcons 62
They have 5 capable scorers and 2 wild cards. G Michael Lyons, F Tom Fow, F Derek Brooks, C Taylor Broekhuis, and G Evan Washington are all capable of putting up double-digit points. F Zach Bohannon can be a great scorer as well, but is more inconsistent this season. Reserve G Mike Fitzgerald hit 3 threes against BYU in Provo, so he cannot be counted out either.
Evan Washington tends to force the action more than any other Falcon, so if he is on, he can score quickly. If he is off, the offense and team struggles. He has done a better job this season of pacing and better shot selection. He is clearly the most athletic Falcon, but has learned to accept the team concept better in his senior year. The Falcons do not score a lot of points (66/game, 63.2/game in MWC play), so all of their possessions have to count, so he cannot get out of control.
As MWC fans know, Air Force runs a very deliberate, low-risk offense. There is a lot of spacing, combined with back cuts and back screens. They are difficult to zone against, because they have 5 perimeter shooters on the court. They are difficult to man-up against because of all of the back cuts, screens, and rolls. They also do not take bad shots. They just work the ball around until they get a good shot or until the shot clock runs down when they create off of the dribble. They average just over 6 offensive rebounds a game, so they must shoot a high percentage to be effective. Problem is: they typically shoot a high percentage.
Air Force Defensively
The Falcons employ a matchup zone, for those unfamiliar with the term, it is similar to a 3-2, but not really (I just wanted you to get an idea of the shape of the zone). It is a low-risk defense to go with their low-risk offense. They don't apply a lot of ball pressure so you can relax, but they also focus on staying between their man and the basket, so you don't get many open looks. It is essentially the opposite of UNLV's in-your-face, take chances that sometimes lead to wide-open looks, defense that BYU faced on Saturday. BYU cannot get lulled into security, just because they do not have to rush and push and drive and skip pass. The Falcon defense gives up 63.5/game, 65.1/game in MWC play.
I do not envision they will change their identity much to account for The Jimmer. They will do what they do best: zone. They may have a wrinkle or two in store for him, but they lack the athleticism to expect to recover from double teams to get out to shooters. Of course that also means they lack the athleticism to stay in front of The Jimmer. Not a lot of teams have tried zoning BYU this season, so it will be interesting to see how that matchup zone works out for them at home.
BYU at Clune Arena
Under Dave Rose, BYU has never scored more than 71 points at Air Force. Last season, Jimmer only played 18 minutes as he was recovering from Mono at the time. Hartsock and Davies both had foul trouble and saw limited minutes. It was Jackson Emery that led all scorers with 21 points, including 5 three-pointers. In the game two seasons ago, Jimmer led all scorers with 20 points, as BYU had 71 in the only game they have played at Clune with a healthy, in the starting lineup, Jimmer Fredette.
BYU's Advantages
The Cougars are a much better rebounding team than the Falcons, on both ends of the floor. They average twice as many offensive rebounds/game as the Falcons, and 11 more total rebounds/game. They also record more steals and blocks/game than the Falcons, though on a per possession basis, the teams are essentially equivalent. Air Force games have fewer possessions, so they record fewer stats. BYU does a better job of taking care of the ball than the younger, more inexperienced Falcons, even with more possessions/game. They are expecting a sellout crowd, which is 3,000 more fans than any home game the Falcons have had this season. Either their fan base recently got enthusiastic for no reason, or there will be a lot of BYU fans there. Either way, the energy will probably better suit a more experienced BYU.
Air Force's Advantages
The Falcons are a much better shooting team, in terms of percentages. A higher percentage of their baskets are also "assisted" baskets. They are playing at home, so even if 25% of the crowd is there to watch Jimmer and BYU, they still hold that advantage.
How BYU Wins
They need to push tempo, guard the rim, and dominate the glass. The more possessions they have, the better chance they have to win, since some of the Cougars are "volume shooters," i.e. they need more shots to get going/scoring. The fewer successful back-door cuts the Falcons get, the less likely they are to score. Solid rebounding will lead to fast breaks, or easy second-chance points.
How Air Force Wins
Put the brakes on, defend the post, and easy buckets. They must slow the game down and make BYU defend for 30-35 seconds, since that is the weak side of their game. They must be able to defend Hartsock and Davies without having to abandon outside shooters. They need to get creative on offense to create situations where they have open shooters on the edge and/or open cuts to the lane. If shooters hit, BYU will lean outside, which opens up the cutters. If cutters get through, they cheat inside, freeing up outside shooters.
Prediction
Air Force is much improved from last year's team that lost by 18 points at home to BYU. BYU is looking every bit as good as last year's NCAA Tournament team, though not as deep. Can Rogers and Abouo play well for a second straight game if needed? This is a game where Logan Magnusson could contribute if foul trouble plagues the BYU big men. I think The Jimmer is also ready for another big performance. You could say he is due, after 3 straight games under 40 points, in only one of which he scored over 30. Jimmer saves his best performances for when his team needs him the most. With depth/health concerns, on the road, in front of a sellout crowd, his team may need him again. At least one non-starter will probably go for 10 points, The Jimmer will score 35, and BYU wins a good game at Clune Arena. It didn't work out for me to be there, but Flavordave and Mr. HT Johansen are going to carry the torch for me. Enjoy. Cougars 74, Falcons 62
MWC Predictions, 2/8-2/9/2011
Utah at San Diego State
Perhaps the struggle at home against TCU on Saturday will wake the Aztecs up. Utah is not in a good way right now, losing 3 in a row (2 at home against teams usually below them in the standings), and traveling to 23-1 SDSU followed by a trip to 22-2 BYU. With that said, Utah has a big chance to turn things around and historically plays SDSU fairly well. Too much explosiveness from the Aztecs though. Aztecs 65, Utah 55
Wyoming at New Mexico
It is always interesting to see how a team responds after a coach gets fired. With that said, however, I don't think it was Schroyer holding the Cowboys back. I think it was the Cowboys. They did play close games against BYU and CSU in the past week. However, New Mexico will be looking for a little payback after losing to Wyoming in Laramie, Wyoming's only MWC win of the season. They are rested, having had a bye on Saturday, and coming off two big wins against BYU and at Air Force. Lobos 76, Cowboys 58
UNLV at TCU
Last time UNLV played TCU after a loss to BYU and thumped them. Can they repeat the performance? TCU is coming off two hard-fought losses that show they are somewhat improving. However, I wouldn't want to get the Rebels right after their loss to BYU. Rebels 74, Horned Frogs 58
Perhaps the struggle at home against TCU on Saturday will wake the Aztecs up. Utah is not in a good way right now, losing 3 in a row (2 at home against teams usually below them in the standings), and traveling to 23-1 SDSU followed by a trip to 22-2 BYU. With that said, Utah has a big chance to turn things around and historically plays SDSU fairly well. Too much explosiveness from the Aztecs though. Aztecs 65, Utah 55
Wyoming at New Mexico
It is always interesting to see how a team responds after a coach gets fired. With that said, however, I don't think it was Schroyer holding the Cowboys back. I think it was the Cowboys. They did play close games against BYU and CSU in the past week. However, New Mexico will be looking for a little payback after losing to Wyoming in Laramie, Wyoming's only MWC win of the season. They are rested, having had a bye on Saturday, and coming off two big wins against BYU and at Air Force. Lobos 76, Cowboys 58
UNLV at TCU
Last time UNLV played TCU after a loss to BYU and thumped them. Can they repeat the performance? TCU is coming off two hard-fought losses that show they are somewhat improving. However, I wouldn't want to get the Rebels right after their loss to BYU. Rebels 74, Horned Frogs 58
Monday, February 7, 2011
BYU Number 1 in the RPI Today. Again.
BYU woke up this morning with a number 1 ranking in the RPI for the second straight day. While that streak will likely come to an end tomorrow morning, with #2 RPI Kansas currently leading #30 RPI Mizzou as I type, I thought I'd take a quick look at how they have done it. BYU, after all, does not play in one of the Big 6 Conferences. BYU did not play a single team in the non-conference that was ranked at the time they played them. They have only played one team in the current top 10. And they have 2 losses. So how is their SOS in the top 10? How are they able to be rated ahead of teams with better records that play in substantially tougher conferences?
Away From Home
BYU has only played 9 true home games to this point in the season. In 14 Division I non-conference games, they played 5 home games, 3 road games, and 6 neutral site games. At this point they have also "benefited" from having an unbalanced conference schedule, playing only 3 home games in their first 8 with 5 road games. Road wins count more than neutral site wins. Neutral site wins count more than home wins. They have done a great job racking up road and neutral site wins: 7 road wins, 5 neutral site wins, compared to 9 home wins (in 9 tries).
Avoid the Riff-Raff
BYU has played 23 Division I games. Only 4 of the opponents are outside of the top 200 of the RPI. One of them was a conference game (Wyoming), so they had no choice. Two of them were part of their Thanksgiving Weekend tournament (Mississippi Valley State and Chicago State). And prior to the season, no one anticipated Fresno State being outside of the top 200 in the RPI. BYU has benefited from an improved MWC as well. CSU is currently in the top 50. Air Force is currently in the top 100. BYU also played only 7 games against teams ranked 101-200 in the RPI. That means more than half of their games to this point in the season were against teams in the RPI top 100 (12 of 23).
Ahead of Them Still
BYU has already played 12 of 23 games against top 100 teams in the RPI. They have 7 regular season games left: 4 home games and 3 road games. The road games are at #88 Air Force, #154 TCU, and #4 SDSU. The home games are against #144 Utah, #46 CSU, #60 New Mexico, and #270 Wyoming. In other words: 4 of 7 games will be against top-100 teams, for 16 out of 30 games in the regular season. In the MWC Tournament, BYU will likely get #144 Utah or #154 TCU in their first game (or possibly even a #88 Air Force team), then face a top 50 opponent in the second round with either #28 UNLV, #46 CSU, or possibly dropping as low as #60 New Mexico (who would probably be higher than 60 if they survive to that point). If BYU wins that game, they will certainly be facing a top 50 opponent in the MWC Championship.
The Aggregate
BYU should finish the season with more than half of their games against top 100 teams (17/18 of 32/33). 10/11 of the 17/18 would be away from home. They are currently 10-2 against the top 100 (5-0 at home, 5-2 away from home). They could also possibly play as many as 12/13 games against the top 50, 8/9 of which would be away from home. They are currently 7-1 against the top 50 (3-0 at home, 4-1 away from home). That is impressive for a non-BCS conference team. It is also the secret to BYU's success in the RPI this season: you don't have to play a lot of top 10 teams, as long as you play a lot of non-home games against non-bottom 10 teams.
The Seed
If BYU continues to win and gets a good/lucky draw in the MWC Tournament with two games against top 50 RPI teams, the Cougars should find themselves with a top-5 RPI ranking to end the season and a great chance for a 2 or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. At 29-4 or better, with the potential National Player of the Year, a top-5 RPI ranking, and a top 20 strength of schedule, it would be tough for the NCAA Tournament Committee to pass up the Cougars this year. Right now, most people project them as a 2-seed in Denver/Tucson. It's still as precarious a seed as a 14-point second-half lead is in Albuquerque, but I'd rather be there than where BYU typically is at this juncture, sitting in the high single-digits somewhere out East.
Away From Home
BYU has only played 9 true home games to this point in the season. In 14 Division I non-conference games, they played 5 home games, 3 road games, and 6 neutral site games. At this point they have also "benefited" from having an unbalanced conference schedule, playing only 3 home games in their first 8 with 5 road games. Road wins count more than neutral site wins. Neutral site wins count more than home wins. They have done a great job racking up road and neutral site wins: 7 road wins, 5 neutral site wins, compared to 9 home wins (in 9 tries).
Avoid the Riff-Raff
BYU has played 23 Division I games. Only 4 of the opponents are outside of the top 200 of the RPI. One of them was a conference game (Wyoming), so they had no choice. Two of them were part of their Thanksgiving Weekend tournament (Mississippi Valley State and Chicago State). And prior to the season, no one anticipated Fresno State being outside of the top 200 in the RPI. BYU has benefited from an improved MWC as well. CSU is currently in the top 50. Air Force is currently in the top 100. BYU also played only 7 games against teams ranked 101-200 in the RPI. That means more than half of their games to this point in the season were against teams in the RPI top 100 (12 of 23).
Ahead of Them Still
BYU has already played 12 of 23 games against top 100 teams in the RPI. They have 7 regular season games left: 4 home games and 3 road games. The road games are at #88 Air Force, #154 TCU, and #4 SDSU. The home games are against #144 Utah, #46 CSU, #60 New Mexico, and #270 Wyoming. In other words: 4 of 7 games will be against top-100 teams, for 16 out of 30 games in the regular season. In the MWC Tournament, BYU will likely get #144 Utah or #154 TCU in their first game (or possibly even a #88 Air Force team), then face a top 50 opponent in the second round with either #28 UNLV, #46 CSU, or possibly dropping as low as #60 New Mexico (who would probably be higher than 60 if they survive to that point). If BYU wins that game, they will certainly be facing a top 50 opponent in the MWC Championship.
The Aggregate
BYU should finish the season with more than half of their games against top 100 teams (17/18 of 32/33). 10/11 of the 17/18 would be away from home. They are currently 10-2 against the top 100 (5-0 at home, 5-2 away from home). They could also possibly play as many as 12/13 games against the top 50, 8/9 of which would be away from home. They are currently 7-1 against the top 50 (3-0 at home, 4-1 away from home). That is impressive for a non-BCS conference team. It is also the secret to BYU's success in the RPI this season: you don't have to play a lot of top 10 teams, as long as you play a lot of non-home games against non-bottom 10 teams.
The Seed
If BYU continues to win and gets a good/lucky draw in the MWC Tournament with two games against top 50 RPI teams, the Cougars should find themselves with a top-5 RPI ranking to end the season and a great chance for a 2 or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. At 29-4 or better, with the potential National Player of the Year, a top-5 RPI ranking, and a top 20 strength of schedule, it would be tough for the NCAA Tournament Committee to pass up the Cougars this year. Right now, most people project them as a 2-seed in Denver/Tucson. It's still as precarious a seed as a 14-point second-half lead is in Albuquerque, but I'd rather be there than where BYU typically is at this juncture, sitting in the high single-digits somewhere out East.
A Guest Commentary on BYU Recruiting Day Luncheon
My father attended the BYU Recruiting Day Cougar Club Luncheon. Here are his thoughts, with some slight editing on my part.
Recruiting Tactics
I sat next to the parents of the top recruit from Utah, Ryker Matthews. I asked his dad about his recruitment. He told he was not a Cougar from birth but decided on the Y last fall. I asked him why and he told me the difference in recruiting was quite stark. Utah wrote him a letter stating the they were moving to the PAC 10, they would play him right away, and they sure hoped he would become a Ute. Bronco wrote him and said he and his family had just gotten back from Peru and realized how blessed we were to live in this country. He hoped things were going well with him, just wanted to stay in touch. Quite a difference in recruiting. When Ryker came to visit, he asked for Jake Heaps to be his mentor and they became good friends; also Quesada spent a lot of time with him. He loves BYU after his first year and is glad he came. He is really a fun guy.
Quick Notes on the Recruits
We got 8 of the top 20 recruits in Utah, more than any other school. We had eighteen total recruits, thirteen of which were from Utah. Five of them were rated in the top 50 at their position in the country. We had two JC guys, the rest were high school seniors, a couple of which are already in school and will participate in spring practice. A lot of tall guys in the bunch. We also have 14 RM's returning, most of whom played as freshman and a couple even started. The kicker from Bingham is back, having ridden a unicycle his whole mission.
Coaching Changes
Bronco also addressed all the coaching changes he made. He sounded like he brought in the buy from Navy to make their running attack even better. Only seven teams have a better record over the last five years but he wants to improve to make up that difference. And only 11 teams have won four of their last five bowl games.
Ben Cahoon, a former wide receiver and a CFL player the last 13 years was mentioned by Bronco. He is the all time leading receiver in the CFL. Only six people in the history of football have caught more passes than he has.
Independent Thinking
Independence has been liberating. They thought it would be really difficult to put together a schedule and it was for this year. They now get about one call a day from teams wanting to play us. Holmoe calls him every day asking about playing in one venue or another, NFL venues for the most part. They have had a lot of interest from other schools asking how it is going for them. He did say if they are good enough to be in the top 12 at the end of the season they are eligible for the BCS. The deal to play TCU in Cowboys stadium is just about done and looks like it will be done.
They are really looking forward to the exposure from ESPN. They will have to play around the TV schedule at times which might include a Thursday night or late Saturday night game on occasion. Bronco was in San Diego the night of our game with them, staying in the Marriott, but could not find the game to watch it. The exposure all of them are looking forward to. Every game not televised by ESPN will be on BYUTV. It is liberating, said Bronco, to play whomever you want to play and not to be tied down by someone else.
Recruiting Tactics
I sat next to the parents of the top recruit from Utah, Ryker Matthews. I asked his dad about his recruitment. He told he was not a Cougar from birth but decided on the Y last fall. I asked him why and he told me the difference in recruiting was quite stark. Utah wrote him a letter stating the they were moving to the PAC 10, they would play him right away, and they sure hoped he would become a Ute. Bronco wrote him and said he and his family had just gotten back from Peru and realized how blessed we were to live in this country. He hoped things were going well with him, just wanted to stay in touch. Quite a difference in recruiting. When Ryker came to visit, he asked for Jake Heaps to be his mentor and they became good friends; also Quesada spent a lot of time with him. He loves BYU after his first year and is glad he came. He is really a fun guy.
Quick Notes on the Recruits
We got 8 of the top 20 recruits in Utah, more than any other school. We had eighteen total recruits, thirteen of which were from Utah. Five of them were rated in the top 50 at their position in the country. We had two JC guys, the rest were high school seniors, a couple of which are already in school and will participate in spring practice. A lot of tall guys in the bunch. We also have 14 RM's returning, most of whom played as freshman and a couple even started. The kicker from Bingham is back, having ridden a unicycle his whole mission.
Coaching Changes
Bronco also addressed all the coaching changes he made. He sounded like he brought in the buy from Navy to make their running attack even better. Only seven teams have a better record over the last five years but he wants to improve to make up that difference. And only 11 teams have won four of their last five bowl games.
Ben Cahoon, a former wide receiver and a CFL player the last 13 years was mentioned by Bronco. He is the all time leading receiver in the CFL. Only six people in the history of football have caught more passes than he has.
Independent Thinking
Independence has been liberating. They thought it would be really difficult to put together a schedule and it was for this year. They now get about one call a day from teams wanting to play us. Holmoe calls him every day asking about playing in one venue or another, NFL venues for the most part. They have had a lot of interest from other schools asking how it is going for them. He did say if they are good enough to be in the top 12 at the end of the season they are eligible for the BCS. The deal to play TCU in Cowboys stadium is just about done and looks like it will be done.
They are really looking forward to the exposure from ESPN. They will have to play around the TV schedule at times which might include a Thursday night or late Saturday night game on occasion. Bronco was in San Diego the night of our game with them, staying in the Marriott, but could not find the game to watch it. The exposure all of them are looking forward to. Every game not televised by ESPN will be on BYUTV. It is liberating, said Bronco, to play whomever you want to play and not to be tied down by someone else.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
UNLV-BYU Recap (78-64), 2/5/2011
Other Scoring Options Stepping Up
UNLV made sure that Jimmer would have to work hard for everything, and he did, except that they sent him to the free throw line 16 times. But it was clear that somebody else was going to have to come up big and make shots. The question was: who would it be, if anyone? Answer: Stephen Rogers, Charles Abouo, and Jackson Emery. Jimmer's 10th point was BYU's 35th, much different than the SDSU game where Jimmer had 20 of the first 30. Jackson struggled with his shot early but made plenty of contributions defensively before heating up in the second half and finishing with 15 points. Rogers scored 12 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and netted 2 assists off the bench in 21 minutes, including making two big threes and the assist that led to a monstrous dunk from Davies that put BYU up 11 with 10 minutes left. Abouo also came in and made some solid plays, on both sides of the court, scoring 10 points in 24 minutes. Those are the kinds of contributions BYU is going to need from these guys next season, so there is some hope for 2011-2012 after all. Those guys' performances set the stage for Jimmer to deliver the knockout punch, scoring 10 points in the final 7 minutes on his way to becoming the all-time MWC scoring leader.
"He Don't Want No Assists"
Tre'Von Willis should talk more smack about Jimmer. Before the first game, he said Jimmer was "supposedly" the best player in the MWC and would have to prove he deserved all of those accolades. He dropped 39 in a double-digit road win for BYU. Prior to this game, Tre'Von Willis had some words for Jimmer again: you're a ballhog! [I'm paraphrasing...] Cue Jimmer with 7 assists, which could have been 10+ if guys were making shots early in the game. Jimmer took his 5th shot of the game with under 4 minutes left in the first half. For a guy who wants to "shoot the ball every time" he sure didn't seem to shoot much.
Defense Wins Championships
It seemed like UNLV made every single shot where they had any kind of space. They also got a lot of easy buckets on put-backs. Which is made makes the fact that UNLV was held to 30% shooting for the game even more impressive. That means a hefty majority of shots were tightly contested. When a team takes a lot of contested shots, the opportunities for offensive rebounds are greater, so UNLV got 11 in the first half. However, BYU was able to still contest shots and rebound remarkably better in the second half, allowing only 5 offensive boards.
The offense will get the headlines, particularly the bench contributions, and rightfully so, but the defense also won this game. UNLV went over 5 minutes without a basket in the first half, which allowed BYU to turn a 1-point deficit into a 10-point lead. Another 4-minute drought saw a 3-point lead become 10. The rest of the game was essentially played even, with both teams trading shots and the lead swinging from 9 to 16 in the second half.
It also didn't hurt that BYU benefited from some home-cooking on the calls, particularly in the first half. But I've seen enough BYU-UNLV games to feel that BYU finally deserved some favorable calls.
The Bracket Implications
Beating UNLV by 14 today should help BYU in a number of ways. 1) It gives BYU another top 50 win, taking their current total seven (7-1 against the top 50). 2) BYU should move up to 2nd in the RPI tomorrow, with SDSU having only a slight lead and playing a much lesser opponent at home today in TCU. That assumes that Ohio State does not jump both of them, playing at Minnesota. 3) It should help them move up in the rankings on Monday morning to as high as #7. All of these things help BYU's tournament resume. Add in the fact that Jimmer gets more notoriety for becoming the all-time MWC scoring leader (the guy just can't stay out of the headlines, even when he scores a pedestrian 29), and BYU is looking to head into the NCAA Tournament with the best resume they have ever had. The NCAA Tournament needs Jimmer. The longer he stays around, the more intriguing the headlines become. That means that BYU may actually get some favorable treatment in the brackets. Perhaps a 2 or 3-seed, perhaps a trip to Denver the first weekend, perhaps staying in the West Regional, perhaps a favorable draw of opponents. Who knows? Beating UNLV today couldn't hurt the chances for any of those to happen.
UNLV made sure that Jimmer would have to work hard for everything, and he did, except that they sent him to the free throw line 16 times. But it was clear that somebody else was going to have to come up big and make shots. The question was: who would it be, if anyone? Answer: Stephen Rogers, Charles Abouo, and Jackson Emery. Jimmer's 10th point was BYU's 35th, much different than the SDSU game where Jimmer had 20 of the first 30. Jackson struggled with his shot early but made plenty of contributions defensively before heating up in the second half and finishing with 15 points. Rogers scored 12 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and netted 2 assists off the bench in 21 minutes, including making two big threes and the assist that led to a monstrous dunk from Davies that put BYU up 11 with 10 minutes left. Abouo also came in and made some solid plays, on both sides of the court, scoring 10 points in 24 minutes. Those are the kinds of contributions BYU is going to need from these guys next season, so there is some hope for 2011-2012 after all. Those guys' performances set the stage for Jimmer to deliver the knockout punch, scoring 10 points in the final 7 minutes on his way to becoming the all-time MWC scoring leader.
"He Don't Want No Assists"
Tre'Von Willis should talk more smack about Jimmer. Before the first game, he said Jimmer was "supposedly" the best player in the MWC and would have to prove he deserved all of those accolades. He dropped 39 in a double-digit road win for BYU. Prior to this game, Tre'Von Willis had some words for Jimmer again: you're a ballhog! [I'm paraphrasing...] Cue Jimmer with 7 assists, which could have been 10+ if guys were making shots early in the game. Jimmer took his 5th shot of the game with under 4 minutes left in the first half. For a guy who wants to "shoot the ball every time" he sure didn't seem to shoot much.
Defense Wins Championships
It seemed like UNLV made every single shot where they had any kind of space. They also got a lot of easy buckets on put-backs. Which is made makes the fact that UNLV was held to 30% shooting for the game even more impressive. That means a hefty majority of shots were tightly contested. When a team takes a lot of contested shots, the opportunities for offensive rebounds are greater, so UNLV got 11 in the first half. However, BYU was able to still contest shots and rebound remarkably better in the second half, allowing only 5 offensive boards.
The offense will get the headlines, particularly the bench contributions, and rightfully so, but the defense also won this game. UNLV went over 5 minutes without a basket in the first half, which allowed BYU to turn a 1-point deficit into a 10-point lead. Another 4-minute drought saw a 3-point lead become 10. The rest of the game was essentially played even, with both teams trading shots and the lead swinging from 9 to 16 in the second half.
It also didn't hurt that BYU benefited from some home-cooking on the calls, particularly in the first half. But I've seen enough BYU-UNLV games to feel that BYU finally deserved some favorable calls.
The Bracket Implications
Beating UNLV by 14 today should help BYU in a number of ways. 1) It gives BYU another top 50 win, taking their current total seven (7-1 against the top 50). 2) BYU should move up to 2nd in the RPI tomorrow, with SDSU having only a slight lead and playing a much lesser opponent at home today in TCU. That assumes that Ohio State does not jump both of them, playing at Minnesota. 3) It should help them move up in the rankings on Monday morning to as high as #7. All of these things help BYU's tournament resume. Add in the fact that Jimmer gets more notoriety for becoming the all-time MWC scoring leader (the guy just can't stay out of the headlines, even when he scores a pedestrian 29), and BYU is looking to head into the NCAA Tournament with the best resume they have ever had. The NCAA Tournament needs Jimmer. The longer he stays around, the more intriguing the headlines become. That means that BYU may actually get some favorable treatment in the brackets. Perhaps a 2 or 3-seed, perhaps a trip to Denver the first weekend, perhaps staying in the West Regional, perhaps a favorable draw of opponents. Who knows? Beating UNLV today couldn't hurt the chances for any of those to happen.
Friday, February 4, 2011
UNLV-BYU Preview, 2/5/2011
UNLV Coming In
The Rebels have won four of their past 5 games. The four wins came against 4 of the bottom 5 in the conference. The loss came to the only team in the top half that they played. At home. The key has been balance: when they have it, they win, and when they don't, they lose. In their MWC wins, at least 5 players generally score 8 or more points. In their losses, two or three guys are carrying the scoring load. Their biggest weakness, in my opinion, has been on the boards. Chace Stanback is the team's leading rebounder, and he's only had one double-digit rebounding performance. Can Davies, Hartsock, Collinsworth, and Abouo exploit that? My guess is they can do a good job limiting UNLV's second chance opportunities.
BYU Coming In
The Cougars have seen a lot of great performances by Jimmer Fredette over the past month. They have seen several good ones from Brandon Davies. Jackson Emery had a couple, but has been absent offensively for about 2 weeks now. Hartsock and Collinsworth are noticeably poor shooters of late. Will a little home-cooking help them get it figured out? It figures to be a great environment. It will certainly be a game where a third scoring option will need to present itself. If Emery isn't hitting threes, or Hartsock draining those baseline jumpers, there is nothing to stop UNLV from doubling Jimmer and seeing how BYU responds. Can UNLV prevent Jimmer from going off? And can somebody else do it if BYU needs them to? My guess is UNLV will be motivated and focused on stopping Jimmer. Whether that is enough or not, I don't know, but I do know that it's time for Jackson or Noah to step up.
I think BYU is definitely showing signs of that difficult non-conference stretch they set up for themselves. It was a lot of travel and a lot of road games. While it may have been good preparation for the NCAA Tournament, it has shown who is too mentally weak (Noah) and who is tpo physically weak (Collinsworth) to handle such a difficult schedule. They better figure out a way for guys to rest up soon.
Prediction
I feel like Jackson Emery showed some signs against Wyoming of being ready to step back in as the third scoring option. More than likely he will get some good looks in the game, with so much focus sure to be paid to Fredette, who dropped 39 on UNLV last time. But revenge will certainly be on UNLV's minds. They will come ready to push BYU up and down the court. I think it will be a battle for 40 minutes, and I think for BYU it will come down to someone not named Jimmer or Brandon making a big shot or a big play in the last 5 minutes. If they do it, BYU will pull it out. If they don't, the Rebels return the favor and beat BYU on their home floor. My money is on Jackson having a big night and propelling BYU to the win, but I'd be fine with it being Noah, or Stephen Rogers, or ANYBODY, so long as somebody does it. Cougars 78, Rebels 74
The Rebels have won four of their past 5 games. The four wins came against 4 of the bottom 5 in the conference. The loss came to the only team in the top half that they played. At home. The key has been balance: when they have it, they win, and when they don't, they lose. In their MWC wins, at least 5 players generally score 8 or more points. In their losses, two or three guys are carrying the scoring load. Their biggest weakness, in my opinion, has been on the boards. Chace Stanback is the team's leading rebounder, and he's only had one double-digit rebounding performance. Can Davies, Hartsock, Collinsworth, and Abouo exploit that? My guess is they can do a good job limiting UNLV's second chance opportunities.
BYU Coming In
The Cougars have seen a lot of great performances by Jimmer Fredette over the past month. They have seen several good ones from Brandon Davies. Jackson Emery had a couple, but has been absent offensively for about 2 weeks now. Hartsock and Collinsworth are noticeably poor shooters of late. Will a little home-cooking help them get it figured out? It figures to be a great environment. It will certainly be a game where a third scoring option will need to present itself. If Emery isn't hitting threes, or Hartsock draining those baseline jumpers, there is nothing to stop UNLV from doubling Jimmer and seeing how BYU responds. Can UNLV prevent Jimmer from going off? And can somebody else do it if BYU needs them to? My guess is UNLV will be motivated and focused on stopping Jimmer. Whether that is enough or not, I don't know, but I do know that it's time for Jackson or Noah to step up.
I think BYU is definitely showing signs of that difficult non-conference stretch they set up for themselves. It was a lot of travel and a lot of road games. While it may have been good preparation for the NCAA Tournament, it has shown who is too mentally weak (Noah) and who is tpo physically weak (Collinsworth) to handle such a difficult schedule. They better figure out a way for guys to rest up soon.
Prediction
I feel like Jackson Emery showed some signs against Wyoming of being ready to step back in as the third scoring option. More than likely he will get some good looks in the game, with so much focus sure to be paid to Fredette, who dropped 39 on UNLV last time. But revenge will certainly be on UNLV's minds. They will come ready to push BYU up and down the court. I think it will be a battle for 40 minutes, and I think for BYU it will come down to someone not named Jimmer or Brandon making a big shot or a big play in the last 5 minutes. If they do it, BYU will pull it out. If they don't, the Rebels return the favor and beat BYU on their home floor. My money is on Jackson having a big night and propelling BYU to the win, but I'd be fine with it being Noah, or Stephen Rogers, or ANYBODY, so long as somebody does it. Cougars 78, Rebels 74
MWC Hoops Preview, 2/5/2011
TCU at San Diego State
SDSU won by 13 on the road at TCU. I don't see any reason for it to be any closer in San Diego. The roll continues, and it might be even worse than I predict/fear. SDSU 85, TCU 62
Air Force at Utah
The battle for 6th place wages on. Air Force won at home by 8 in early January. Air Force goes in having lost 5 of 7. Utah has been streaky all season. Right now they are on another losing streak. Utah has been playing better the past 3 weeks, and has beat three teams in the bottom half. Air Force makes it 4. Utes 70, Falcons 61
Colorado State at Wyoming
CSU enters this rivalry game after suffering a tough loss to SDSU, having them on the ropes until DJ Gay hit a shot with under 3 seconds left to give SDSU the lead. Wyoming is coming off a confidence-building loss to BYU. How will the teams respond from that performance? CSU cannot afford to lose if they want a shot at the NCAA Tournament. They will not lose. Rams 71, Cowboys 66
SDSU won by 13 on the road at TCU. I don't see any reason for it to be any closer in San Diego. The roll continues, and it might be even worse than I predict/fear. SDSU 85, TCU 62
Air Force at Utah
The battle for 6th place wages on. Air Force won at home by 8 in early January. Air Force goes in having lost 5 of 7. Utah has been streaky all season. Right now they are on another losing streak. Utah has been playing better the past 3 weeks, and has beat three teams in the bottom half. Air Force makes it 4. Utes 70, Falcons 61
Colorado State at Wyoming
CSU enters this rivalry game after suffering a tough loss to SDSU, having them on the ropes until DJ Gay hit a shot with under 3 seconds left to give SDSU the lead. Wyoming is coming off a confidence-building loss to BYU. How will the teams respond from that performance? CSU cannot afford to lose if they want a shot at the NCAA Tournament. They will not lose. Rams 71, Cowboys 66
MWC Tourney Watch, Part II, 2/4/2011
Colorado State, RPI Rank: 47
NCAA Tournament Chances: 25%
Highest Possible Seed: 10
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 10: They missed a golden opportunity against SDSU on Wednesday. Now their only chances for big wins come on the road at BYU and at SDSU, and then in the MWC Tournament. They also get UNLV at home, however, that win would not be enough to catapult them into the NCAAs. They need to get at least two wins against SDSU/BYU (including the MWC Tournament), they need to beat UNLV, and they need to win the rest of their games against hte rest of the MWC. Period.
How They Go NIT: Well, they are already there, so they don't have to do anything. They do probably need to win at least 4 more games to ensure an NIT bid. That would put them at least 19-12.
New Mexico, RPI Rank: 53
NCAA Tournament Chances: 10%
Highest Possible Seed: 12
Lowest Possible Seed: CIT (tourney below NIT)
How They Get a 12: Win the MWC Tournament. They have a long way to go for at-large consideration. They would need to go 7-1 at worst in the second half of conference play, with at least two wins in games at SDSU, BYU, and CSU, plus two wins in the MWC Tournament. They already have 7 losses, so if they don't win the MWC Tourney they would have at least 8. With a bad non-conference schedule, that is too many, maybe even if they go 8-0 in the second half in MWC play.
How They Miss the NIT: Continue to lose on the road. They are solidly in the NIT right now, so it would take a home loss to UNLV, road losses at the Big Three, one other inexplicable MWC loss, and an early exit from the MWC Tournament to miss the NIT completely. I know I'll be cheering for that to happen every game, but that's nothing new. Alford is a punk. His teams play like him too...
Air Force, RPI Rank: 106
NCAA Tournament Chances: Must win MWC Tournament
Highest Possible Seed: 14
Lowest Possible Seed: No post-season
How They Get a 14: Automatic bid by winning MWC.
How They Stay Home: Play as they have been. They currently have very little chance of securing any postseason appearance, including the CIT.
Utah, RPI Rank: 132
TCU, RPI Rank: 164
Wyoming, RPI Rank: 265
See summary for Air Force. Replace 14 with 15/16 for Wyoming. It would take something truly special down the stretch for any of these teams to make any postseason.
NCAA Tournament Chances: 25%
Highest Possible Seed: 10
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 10: They missed a golden opportunity against SDSU on Wednesday. Now their only chances for big wins come on the road at BYU and at SDSU, and then in the MWC Tournament. They also get UNLV at home, however, that win would not be enough to catapult them into the NCAAs. They need to get at least two wins against SDSU/BYU (including the MWC Tournament), they need to beat UNLV, and they need to win the rest of their games against hte rest of the MWC. Period.
How They Go NIT: Well, they are already there, so they don't have to do anything. They do probably need to win at least 4 more games to ensure an NIT bid. That would put them at least 19-12.
New Mexico, RPI Rank: 53
NCAA Tournament Chances: 10%
Highest Possible Seed: 12
Lowest Possible Seed: CIT (tourney below NIT)
How They Get a 12: Win the MWC Tournament. They have a long way to go for at-large consideration. They would need to go 7-1 at worst in the second half of conference play, with at least two wins in games at SDSU, BYU, and CSU, plus two wins in the MWC Tournament. They already have 7 losses, so if they don't win the MWC Tourney they would have at least 8. With a bad non-conference schedule, that is too many, maybe even if they go 8-0 in the second half in MWC play.
How They Miss the NIT: Continue to lose on the road. They are solidly in the NIT right now, so it would take a home loss to UNLV, road losses at the Big Three, one other inexplicable MWC loss, and an early exit from the MWC Tournament to miss the NIT completely. I know I'll be cheering for that to happen every game, but that's nothing new. Alford is a punk. His teams play like him too...
Air Force, RPI Rank: 106
NCAA Tournament Chances: Must win MWC Tournament
Highest Possible Seed: 14
Lowest Possible Seed: No post-season
How They Get a 14: Automatic bid by winning MWC.
How They Stay Home: Play as they have been. They currently have very little chance of securing any postseason appearance, including the CIT.
Utah, RPI Rank: 132
TCU, RPI Rank: 164
Wyoming, RPI Rank: 265
See summary for Air Force. Replace 14 with 15/16 for Wyoming. It would take something truly special down the stretch for any of these teams to make any postseason.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
MWC Tourney Watch, Part I, 2/3/2011
Seeing as how we are at the halfway point of the conference season, I thought it was a good opportunity to recap where MWC teams stand as far as the postseason is concerned. I will go in order of CBSSportsline RPI. I will do this 3 teams at a time.
San Diego State, RPI Rank: 2
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Highest Possible Seed: 1
Worst Possible Seed: 5
How They Get a 1: Win out. They simply cannot lose again. They must beat BYU at home, win at UNLV, and win the MWC Tournament. They will still need help from other potential 1-seeds with multiple losses. The MWC is not strong enough for a team to play their way into a 1-seed from the MWC without help.
How They Get a 5: Lose at UNLV, lose to BYU, drop another random game, and bow out in round 2 of the MWC Tournament. None of those are out of the realm of possibilities. But I think it highly unlikely that they do all 4.
Mo's Best Guess on SDSU: I think they will probably lose twice more and finish about 29/30-3, depending on the MWC Tournament result. I think that will put them right smack-dab in the middle of the 2-3 seed discussion. With their program lacking an NCAA Tournament win in their history, I think the Committee probably punishes them with a 3-seed, even though they aren't supposed to!
BYU, RPI Rank: 3
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Best Possible Seed: 2
Worst Possible Seed: 7
How They Get a 2: They could lose one more game (at SDSU) and still get a 2-seed, but they'll need to win the MWC Tournament.
How They Get a 7: Lay more eggs on the road like they did last night at Wyoming. Losing at home to UNLV or New Mexico would also be damaging.
Mo's Best Guess on BYU: Given the funk they have been in the last 50 minutes (even longer for some of the players: Noah, Jackson, Collinsworth, and the entire bench), anything could happen. I still find it difficult to believe they will lose more than 3 games between now and the end of the MWC Tournament. 27-4 or 28-3 going into the MWC Tournament, and with Jimmer in the tourney, they could certainly win it. BYU will probably end up deserving around a 3 or 4-seed, and get the usual treatment from the Committee and end up with a 5-seed playing as far away from Provo as the Tournament can put them. In all seriousness, BYU probably gets a 4-seed, unless they really turn it around (or really don't).
UNLV, RPI Rank: 31
NCAA Tournament Chances: 90%
Highest Possible Seed: 6
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 6: Win at BYU on Saturday, or beat SDSU at home, or both. They must win the Conference Tournament. It is a blessing and a curse: the Rebels have a better shot to win the tournament, but they are also penalized more heavily if they don't.
How They Go NIT: They have been on the verge of a collapse for a while now. They could easily lose 5 regular season games (@BYU, SDSU, @CSU, @New Mexico, @Utah), and will probably lose at least 2 of them, if not 3 or 4. If they drop 4 of them and don't win the MWC Tourney, it could very well be NIT!
Mo's Best Guess on UNLV: they lose 2 or 3 more regular season games and end up in the 4/5 game in the MWC Tournament. They will lose in the first or second round of the MWC Tournament and will narrowly be added to the NCAA Tournament Field as an 11 or 12-seed.
San Diego State, RPI Rank: 2
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Highest Possible Seed: 1
Worst Possible Seed: 5
How They Get a 1: Win out. They simply cannot lose again. They must beat BYU at home, win at UNLV, and win the MWC Tournament. They will still need help from other potential 1-seeds with multiple losses. The MWC is not strong enough for a team to play their way into a 1-seed from the MWC without help.
How They Get a 5: Lose at UNLV, lose to BYU, drop another random game, and bow out in round 2 of the MWC Tournament. None of those are out of the realm of possibilities. But I think it highly unlikely that they do all 4.
Mo's Best Guess on SDSU: I think they will probably lose twice more and finish about 29/30-3, depending on the MWC Tournament result. I think that will put them right smack-dab in the middle of the 2-3 seed discussion. With their program lacking an NCAA Tournament win in their history, I think the Committee probably punishes them with a 3-seed, even though they aren't supposed to!
BYU, RPI Rank: 3
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Best Possible Seed: 2
Worst Possible Seed: 7
How They Get a 2: They could lose one more game (at SDSU) and still get a 2-seed, but they'll need to win the MWC Tournament.
How They Get a 7: Lay more eggs on the road like they did last night at Wyoming. Losing at home to UNLV or New Mexico would also be damaging.
Mo's Best Guess on BYU: Given the funk they have been in the last 50 minutes (even longer for some of the players: Noah, Jackson, Collinsworth, and the entire bench), anything could happen. I still find it difficult to believe they will lose more than 3 games between now and the end of the MWC Tournament. 27-4 or 28-3 going into the MWC Tournament, and with Jimmer in the tourney, they could certainly win it. BYU will probably end up deserving around a 3 or 4-seed, and get the usual treatment from the Committee and end up with a 5-seed playing as far away from Provo as the Tournament can put them. In all seriousness, BYU probably gets a 4-seed, unless they really turn it around (or really don't).
UNLV, RPI Rank: 31
NCAA Tournament Chances: 90%
Highest Possible Seed: 6
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 6: Win at BYU on Saturday, or beat SDSU at home, or both. They must win the Conference Tournament. It is a blessing and a curse: the Rebels have a better shot to win the tournament, but they are also penalized more heavily if they don't.
How They Go NIT: They have been on the verge of a collapse for a while now. They could easily lose 5 regular season games (@BYU, SDSU, @CSU, @New Mexico, @Utah), and will probably lose at least 2 of them, if not 3 or 4. If they drop 4 of them and don't win the MWC Tourney, it could very well be NIT!
Mo's Best Guess on UNLV: they lose 2 or 3 more regular season games and end up in the 4/5 game in the MWC Tournament. They will lose in the first or second round of the MWC Tournament and will narrowly be added to the NCAA Tournament Field as an 11 or 12-seed.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
BYU-Wyoming Preview, 2/2/2011
The Rub
BYU has as many wins in conference as Wyoming does wins over Division I programs (6). Wyoming went 1-6 in January. BYU went 6-1. BYU was 3-1 on the road in January. Wyoming was 1-2 at home. Wyoming has won once in their last 7 games. BYU has lost once in their past 11 games. BYU averages 84 ponits/game. Wyoming averages 66 points/game. Wyoming is bad at historic levels, even for their average program. BYU is good at historic levels, even for their good program.
Wyoming Coming In
Wyoming is on a bit of a cold streak, having not scored over 70 points since December 20th. They have given up 70 points in 5 of 7 conference games. They have a pretty young team, with only one senior in the rotation. They don't have any depth. They don't have much talent. They don't score much. They don't rebound well. They turn the ball over too much. They can't make shots from anywhere, excluding their free throw line where they shoot a not-horrible 69% as a team. 6'5" Desmar Jackson had 26 points in the home loss to BYU last season. No other returning Cowboy had much to crow about against BYU, except C Adam Waddell who recorded 15 points in the loss in Provo. He has been battling injuries this season and hasn't played very well in conference. So naturally he will go off for 20 points and hit 3 clutch threes down the stretch against BYU...
BYU Coming In
This is definitely the kind of game where BYU can get back to their normal offense, and get out of "how can we help Jimmer score" mode. Jimmer has averaged over 22 shots/game in conference play, compared with just 17.5/game in the non-conference. In fact, coming into conference play, Jimmer had only attempted 22 shots 4 times. All were road or neutral site games. He has been good and has certainly been getting it done, but I believe that BYU is at its best when there are multiple players touching the ball every possession. It also gives them their best opportunity in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, Davies can score in the post. Hartsock can hit 15-foot jumpers. Jackson Emery can hit spot-up threes. Kyle Collinsworth can drive to the basket (and I'm sure he has hit lay-ups this season, I just can't remember the last time he hit one). Those shots need to move from "can" happen to "do" happen. And with regularity too. It was working early in the season. It can work again against Wyoming. I hope to see Jimmer's shot total below 20 in Wednesday night's game. It would be nice to see two other players get at least 10 attempts, which hasn't happened since the Utah game, and that is the only time in conference play it has happened (it happened 6 times in 15 non-conference games).
One note about BYU: as the first shot goes for Noah Hartsock and Jackson Emery, so goes the rest of their game. If they make the first one, they tend to make a few more. If they miss that first one, they tend to miss 3 or 4 before finally dropping one, and if they don't hit two or three in a row at that point, they shoot below 50% for the duration of the game. It must be mental, but it is definitely a trend I have noticed in conference play that could prove crucial at home against UNLV, New Mexico, and CSU, plus the game at SDSU.
Prediction
I feel a bit like Clubber Lang from Rocky III when asked about his prediction for his match with Rocky: pain. This could be painful for Wyoming fans, that is. Collinsworth is the type of player who could go off big in this game. Wyoming traditionally struggles against SF with penetrating ability, especially when a team like BYU (a team with good 3-point shooters to kick out to) has someone at that position that can get to the rim. He just needs to make his free throws because he will get fouled. Hartsock could also have a big game as well. Realistically, any Cougar starter is capable of having a 20-point game in Laramie, though I wouldn't bet on Jackson Emery since reporters have been reminding him all week how well he usually shoots in Laramie. [I think that's an omen for 1-7 with 5 points on a 3-pointer and a random trip to the free throw line, but that's just the cynic in me that returned after blowing a 13-point second half lead at New Mexico.] I think two or three of them need to, if for no other reason than to restore confidence going into UNLV on Saturday. BYU wins big on the road. Cougars 85, Cowboys 67.
BYU has as many wins in conference as Wyoming does wins over Division I programs (6). Wyoming went 1-6 in January. BYU went 6-1. BYU was 3-1 on the road in January. Wyoming was 1-2 at home. Wyoming has won once in their last 7 games. BYU has lost once in their past 11 games. BYU averages 84 ponits/game. Wyoming averages 66 points/game. Wyoming is bad at historic levels, even for their average program. BYU is good at historic levels, even for their good program.
Wyoming Coming In
Wyoming is on a bit of a cold streak, having not scored over 70 points since December 20th. They have given up 70 points in 5 of 7 conference games. They have a pretty young team, with only one senior in the rotation. They don't have any depth. They don't have much talent. They don't score much. They don't rebound well. They turn the ball over too much. They can't make shots from anywhere, excluding their free throw line where they shoot a not-horrible 69% as a team. 6'5" Desmar Jackson had 26 points in the home loss to BYU last season. No other returning Cowboy had much to crow about against BYU, except C Adam Waddell who recorded 15 points in the loss in Provo. He has been battling injuries this season and hasn't played very well in conference. So naturally he will go off for 20 points and hit 3 clutch threes down the stretch against BYU...
BYU Coming In
This is definitely the kind of game where BYU can get back to their normal offense, and get out of "how can we help Jimmer score" mode. Jimmer has averaged over 22 shots/game in conference play, compared with just 17.5/game in the non-conference. In fact, coming into conference play, Jimmer had only attempted 22 shots 4 times. All were road or neutral site games. He has been good and has certainly been getting it done, but I believe that BYU is at its best when there are multiple players touching the ball every possession. It also gives them their best opportunity in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, Davies can score in the post. Hartsock can hit 15-foot jumpers. Jackson Emery can hit spot-up threes. Kyle Collinsworth can drive to the basket (and I'm sure he has hit lay-ups this season, I just can't remember the last time he hit one). Those shots need to move from "can" happen to "do" happen. And with regularity too. It was working early in the season. It can work again against Wyoming. I hope to see Jimmer's shot total below 20 in Wednesday night's game. It would be nice to see two other players get at least 10 attempts, which hasn't happened since the Utah game, and that is the only time in conference play it has happened (it happened 6 times in 15 non-conference games).
One note about BYU: as the first shot goes for Noah Hartsock and Jackson Emery, so goes the rest of their game. If they make the first one, they tend to make a few more. If they miss that first one, they tend to miss 3 or 4 before finally dropping one, and if they don't hit two or three in a row at that point, they shoot below 50% for the duration of the game. It must be mental, but it is definitely a trend I have noticed in conference play that could prove crucial at home against UNLV, New Mexico, and CSU, plus the game at SDSU.
Prediction
I feel a bit like Clubber Lang from Rocky III when asked about his prediction for his match with Rocky: pain. This could be painful for Wyoming fans, that is. Collinsworth is the type of player who could go off big in this game. Wyoming traditionally struggles against SF with penetrating ability, especially when a team like BYU (a team with good 3-point shooters to kick out to) has someone at that position that can get to the rim. He just needs to make his free throws because he will get fouled. Hartsock could also have a big game as well. Realistically, any Cougar starter is capable of having a 20-point game in Laramie, though I wouldn't bet on Jackson Emery since reporters have been reminding him all week how well he usually shoots in Laramie. [I think that's an omen for 1-7 with 5 points on a 3-pointer and a random trip to the free throw line, but that's just the cynic in me that returned after blowing a 13-point second half lead at New Mexico.] I think two or three of them need to, if for no other reason than to restore confidence going into UNLV on Saturday. BYU wins big on the road. Cougars 85, Cowboys 67.
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