Competitive, but not close. That sums up the performance by BYU against Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. That also pretty much sums up BYU's season.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
Friday, December 27, 2013
UW-BYU, Fight Hunger Bowl Prediction
UW has more established and consistent playmakers. BYU has the stingier defense. BYU has a less dynamic coaching staff, but they will all be there for the bowl game.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Mo's BCS Thoughts, 12/4/2013
So I typically avoid talking about the BCS, the National Championship, etc. while there are still games to be played. It's a pointless exercise b/c 90% of the time these "controversies" resolve themselves on the field. It's very difficult to go undefeated and that bears out more often than not.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
BYU-Nevada Pre-Game, 11/30/2013
Why Does This Game Matter
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
Monday, November 25, 2013
BYU-Notre Dame Post Game
BYU fans seem to be up in arms again after the Cougars delivered another lackluster performance on the road against a good, but not great, team. I think it boils down to a few major issues, both of which have almost always been the case at BYU, though it seemed that Van Noy, Sorensen, Hill, and Hoffman had "solved" some of those issues.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Notre Dame-BYU Contract
Several of you this week have asked me about Notre Dame's return trip to Provo, after the 2 games here. I am taking a class from Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick this semester and last week asked him a bit about his relationship with Tom Holmoe and Notre Dame's scheduling.
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
BYU @ Notre Dame Prediction, 11/23/2013
What BYU Has Faced So Far
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Previewing Notre Dame
There is only one team I have watched this season as closely as BYU: the Fighting Irish. They are a solid team, with some individual talent, but they are not an unbeatable, dominant opponent (nor were they last season), as BYU made Wisconsin look like in Madison two weeks ago. Here is my take on Notre Dame.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Previewing Wisconsin
Schedule
Wisconsin has amassed a 6-2 record and has been ranked in at least one poll each week this season excluding the two week-period following their 2nd loss of the season (by 7 points at Ohio State). My model shows Wisconsin as 6-0 in games against opponents outside of the 50, and 0-2 against teams in the top 50. In terms of their 2 losses, they had an opportunity to beat both Arizona State and Ohio State on the road. Not just "had a shot" to win, but in all actuality probably should have won both games.
In the 6 wins, they played 3 teams I rank in the bottom 30 of the FBS (Massachusetts, Purdue, and at Illinois), 1 FCS team, and 2 teams right around the middle of FBS teams (Northwestern and at Iowa), but still in the bottom half. So, they really haven't been tested, except in games that they were not successful. They have also yet to play a quality opponent at home.
My model ranks Wisconsin's schedule as the 86th most difficult in the country (or rather the 40th easiest schedule). Only 5 BCS conference teams have played an easier schedule than Wisconsin (3 of them are Big Ten teams! The other two are NC State and Baylor.).
BYU is the biggest test Wisconsin has the remainder of the season. It will be the toughest opponent they will have at home during the entire season. This is really Wisconsin's one shot at a signature win to put on their season given the losses at Arizona State and Ohio State. Winning at Minnesota in two weeks wouldn't be a bad resume builder, but it wouldn't be as impactful as beating BYU this weekend. This is one that Gary Anderson needs to get.
Strengths (Bold, italicized if in top 10)
Pass Defense: 195.1 yards/game (15th in the nation)
Rush Defense: 90.4 yards/game (5th)
Total Defense: 285.5 yards/game (6th)
Scoring Defense: 15.0 points/game (5th)
Red Zone Defense: 76.2% possession scored (25th)
Red Zone TD Defense: 38.1% TDs allowed (1st)
3rd down defense: 29.2% opponent conversion rate (6th)
Kickoff returns: 25.13 yards/return (14th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.25/game (26th)
Rush Offense: 287.0 yards/game (10th)
Total Offense: 494.6 yards/game (18th)
Scoring Offense: 38.4 points/game (20th)
Time of Possession: 33:23 (9th)
Weaknesses
Net Punting: 35.94 yard/punt (88th)
Interceptions: 7 (82nd)
Passing Offense: 207.6 yards/game (86th)
Clearly, Wisconsin's D has been superb across the board and in the red zone. However, a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule. In the Arizona State loss, the Badgers gave up 468 total yards, 32 points, and the defensive TD rate in the red zone was 57%. Against Ohio State, they gave up 192 rushing yards, 31 points, and only rushed for 104 yards. So, while they have been superb in their 6 wins against 6 teams in the bottom half of FBS, in their two quality opponents, they have shown vulnerabilities, even in categories where they are top 10 nationally.
What I Expect
I expect to see a Badger team that wants to be physical. Gary Anderson prided himself in past games against BYU to beat them physically. He was successful in that more often than he wasn't. Now he has real talent, size, and athleticism across the board. He should be able to succeed there again based on the increase in the caliber of players that he has at Wisconsin. What he doesn't have going into this game though is guys that care about this game more than any other game, like he did at Utah and Utah State. The Aggies could always play their best against BYU b/c half the players were Utah born and bred and grew up knowing about BYU. I'm not sure a lot of the Badgers could find Provo on a map. Most of them know nothing about the Cougars and this is just another game to them.
On the flip side, I expect BYU to play with a chip on their shoulder. After the way they have performed against Gary Anderson in recent years, they'll be the ones trying to prove something against him. He was familiar with Doman and the "old" Anae offense. Schematically, he might have some ideas of what to do with BYU that may not prove useful. Even if the schemes would be effective, Wisconsin doesn't know BYU's personnel inside and out like Anderson is used to with Utah and Utah State. The offense is obviously different than it has been in the past. Even the defense has transformed in recent seasons as Bronco has really dialed in and taking the defense up a level.
I'd be shocked to see Wisconsin blow BYU out. Heading into the season, I expected them to win handily. I expected Anderson to bring his intimate knowledge of BYU and put together a game plan similar to what he had done in the past and be successful. BYU has evolved though. It's not the same team Gary Anderson knew. It's not the same personnel. It's not a team that's unsure of itself or lacks confidence, as he faced so often in the past decade.
I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way. I think the Badgers trust their coach, I think they expect to win in the trenches. So if BYU got off to a quick start, I don't know how they would respond. How would Gary Anderson respond? He has never seen that in any of his games against BYU. I certainly don't EXPECT that. But what if BYU slows down the running game as it has with so many rushing attacks the past few seasons and Joel Stave can't get it going through the air, or Jared Abbrederis struggles in his first game back off of injury? The Badgers might be shell-shocked and unable to recover. They had a similar experience against Ohio State. Again, I certainly don't expect it, but it would shock me a lot less than BYU suffering the same fate.
What I do expect to see is a hard-fought contest between two good teams. I don't imagine the home crowd will have that big of an impact on the game, given that BYU doesn't audible much and does a lot of communicating on offense with hand signals. Plus it will be a sunny day, but with a high at 51, the crowd may not be as rowdy as on a 70-degree or 20-degree day. Normally, in a game like this that I expect to be back and forth, I'd say advantage home team. I think the bye week for BYU will help them prepare for that. I would love to see them try a trick play early on and stun the crowd. It would certainly surprise Gary Anderson who has seen only 1 or 2 of them in 10 games against BYU.
We shall see. My expectations with BYU are rarely reality.
Wisconsin has amassed a 6-2 record and has been ranked in at least one poll each week this season excluding the two week-period following their 2nd loss of the season (by 7 points at Ohio State). My model shows Wisconsin as 6-0 in games against opponents outside of the 50, and 0-2 against teams in the top 50. In terms of their 2 losses, they had an opportunity to beat both Arizona State and Ohio State on the road. Not just "had a shot" to win, but in all actuality probably should have won both games.
In the 6 wins, they played 3 teams I rank in the bottom 30 of the FBS (Massachusetts, Purdue, and at Illinois), 1 FCS team, and 2 teams right around the middle of FBS teams (Northwestern and at Iowa), but still in the bottom half. So, they really haven't been tested, except in games that they were not successful. They have also yet to play a quality opponent at home.
My model ranks Wisconsin's schedule as the 86th most difficult in the country (or rather the 40th easiest schedule). Only 5 BCS conference teams have played an easier schedule than Wisconsin (3 of them are Big Ten teams! The other two are NC State and Baylor.).
BYU is the biggest test Wisconsin has the remainder of the season. It will be the toughest opponent they will have at home during the entire season. This is really Wisconsin's one shot at a signature win to put on their season given the losses at Arizona State and Ohio State. Winning at Minnesota in two weeks wouldn't be a bad resume builder, but it wouldn't be as impactful as beating BYU this weekend. This is one that Gary Anderson needs to get.
Strengths (Bold, italicized if in top 10)
Pass Defense: 195.1 yards/game (15th in the nation)
Rush Defense: 90.4 yards/game (5th)
Total Defense: 285.5 yards/game (6th)
Scoring Defense: 15.0 points/game (5th)
Red Zone Defense: 76.2% possession scored (25th)
Red Zone TD Defense: 38.1% TDs allowed (1st)
3rd down defense: 29.2% opponent conversion rate (6th)
Kickoff returns: 25.13 yards/return (14th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.25/game (26th)
Rush Offense: 287.0 yards/game (10th)
Total Offense: 494.6 yards/game (18th)
Scoring Offense: 38.4 points/game (20th)
Time of Possession: 33:23 (9th)
Weaknesses
Net Punting: 35.94 yard/punt (88th)
Interceptions: 7 (82nd)
Passing Offense: 207.6 yards/game (86th)
Clearly, Wisconsin's D has been superb across the board and in the red zone. However, a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule. In the Arizona State loss, the Badgers gave up 468 total yards, 32 points, and the defensive TD rate in the red zone was 57%. Against Ohio State, they gave up 192 rushing yards, 31 points, and only rushed for 104 yards. So, while they have been superb in their 6 wins against 6 teams in the bottom half of FBS, in their two quality opponents, they have shown vulnerabilities, even in categories where they are top 10 nationally.
What I Expect
I expect to see a Badger team that wants to be physical. Gary Anderson prided himself in past games against BYU to beat them physically. He was successful in that more often than he wasn't. Now he has real talent, size, and athleticism across the board. He should be able to succeed there again based on the increase in the caliber of players that he has at Wisconsin. What he doesn't have going into this game though is guys that care about this game more than any other game, like he did at Utah and Utah State. The Aggies could always play their best against BYU b/c half the players were Utah born and bred and grew up knowing about BYU. I'm not sure a lot of the Badgers could find Provo on a map. Most of them know nothing about the Cougars and this is just another game to them.
On the flip side, I expect BYU to play with a chip on their shoulder. After the way they have performed against Gary Anderson in recent years, they'll be the ones trying to prove something against him. He was familiar with Doman and the "old" Anae offense. Schematically, he might have some ideas of what to do with BYU that may not prove useful. Even if the schemes would be effective, Wisconsin doesn't know BYU's personnel inside and out like Anderson is used to with Utah and Utah State. The offense is obviously different than it has been in the past. Even the defense has transformed in recent seasons as Bronco has really dialed in and taking the defense up a level.
I'd be shocked to see Wisconsin blow BYU out. Heading into the season, I expected them to win handily. I expected Anderson to bring his intimate knowledge of BYU and put together a game plan similar to what he had done in the past and be successful. BYU has evolved though. It's not the same team Gary Anderson knew. It's not the same personnel. It's not a team that's unsure of itself or lacks confidence, as he faced so often in the past decade.
I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way. I think the Badgers trust their coach, I think they expect to win in the trenches. So if BYU got off to a quick start, I don't know how they would respond. How would Gary Anderson respond? He has never seen that in any of his games against BYU. I certainly don't EXPECT that. But what if BYU slows down the running game as it has with so many rushing attacks the past few seasons and Joel Stave can't get it going through the air, or Jared Abbrederis struggles in his first game back off of injury? The Badgers might be shell-shocked and unable to recover. They had a similar experience against Ohio State. Again, I certainly don't expect it, but it would shock me a lot less than BYU suffering the same fate.
What I do expect to see is a hard-fought contest between two good teams. I don't imagine the home crowd will have that big of an impact on the game, given that BYU doesn't audible much and does a lot of communicating on offense with hand signals. Plus it will be a sunny day, but with a high at 51, the crowd may not be as rowdy as on a 70-degree or 20-degree day. Normally, in a game like this that I expect to be back and forth, I'd say advantage home team. I think the bye week for BYU will help them prepare for that. I would love to see them try a trick play early on and stun the crowd. It would certainly surprise Gary Anderson who has seen only 1 or 2 of them in 10 games against BYU.
We shall see. My expectations with BYU are rarely reality.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
BYU, the BCS, and Mo's Model
If the BCS went beyond 25 teams (similar to an "others receiving votes" category we see with human polls) BYU would be the 26th ranked team in the BCS standings. This is two spots below this week's opponent #24 Wisconsin and three below #23 Notre Dame. Former BYU opponents Texas and Houston are knocking on the door of the BCS as well.
BYU, on average across the 6 rankings the BCS uses for its computer poll, has a computer ranking 15 spots higher than Wisconsin. My own model has BYU ranked 14 spots higher than Wisconsin. Notre Dame has a slightly better computer ranking than BYU in the BCS. My model puts BYU slightly higher than Notre Dame right now. BYU can change its fate with one simple win on Saturday. It would vault them up in the BCS standings. It would certainly make them favorites against a depleted Notre Dame defense.
My model currently projects BYU a winner over Wisconsin by 1-3 points. If BYU and Notre Dame played this week, ND would be favored by 2 points, but, depending on the outcome against Wisconsin, that will change. A BYU win would push BYU further up the rankings. If Notre Dame struggles against Pitt, they are also apt to drop in my model, just as they did this week after struggling with Navy.
The most interesting factoid for BYU fans about my model: BYU leads the nation in wins against teams in the top 50 with 4, tied with Stanford. Those wins are Texas (#23), Georgia Tech (#35), Houston (#29), and Boise State (#48). Utah State is #51 and just missed the cut to give BYU 5, and one more than Stanford. Better luck next week, Aggies. Both BYU and Stanford will have chances this week to get their 5th top 50 win, though, admittedly, Stanford's win (Oregon) would be a lot more impressive than BYU's...
Virginia beating BYU is still the biggest "upset" of the year, according to my model, with Virginia currently ranked 70 spots below BYU. Other candidates: South Florida over Cincinnati (66 spots), Central Michigan over Ohio (53), Vanderbilt over Georgia (37), Boston College over Virginia Tech (30).
BYU, on average across the 6 rankings the BCS uses for its computer poll, has a computer ranking 15 spots higher than Wisconsin. My own model has BYU ranked 14 spots higher than Wisconsin. Notre Dame has a slightly better computer ranking than BYU in the BCS. My model puts BYU slightly higher than Notre Dame right now. BYU can change its fate with one simple win on Saturday. It would vault them up in the BCS standings. It would certainly make them favorites against a depleted Notre Dame defense.
My model currently projects BYU a winner over Wisconsin by 1-3 points. If BYU and Notre Dame played this week, ND would be favored by 2 points, but, depending on the outcome against Wisconsin, that will change. A BYU win would push BYU further up the rankings. If Notre Dame struggles against Pitt, they are also apt to drop in my model, just as they did this week after struggling with Navy.
The most interesting factoid for BYU fans about my model: BYU leads the nation in wins against teams in the top 50 with 4, tied with Stanford. Those wins are Texas (#23), Georgia Tech (#35), Houston (#29), and Boise State (#48). Utah State is #51 and just missed the cut to give BYU 5, and one more than Stanford. Better luck next week, Aggies. Both BYU and Stanford will have chances this week to get their 5th top 50 win, though, admittedly, Stanford's win (Oregon) would be a lot more impressive than BYU's...
Virginia beating BYU is still the biggest "upset" of the year, according to my model, with Virginia currently ranked 70 spots below BYU. Other candidates: South Florida over Cincinnati (66 spots), Central Michigan over Ohio (53), Vanderbilt over Georgia (37), Boston College over Virginia Tech (30).
BYU's Bye Week
Obviously, there were some negatives from BYU's bye week with the announcement that WR/PR JD Falslev and LB Austen Jorgensen are sidelined basically for the season. However, BYU did extremely well this off-week in a few major ways. Taysom Hill needed some rest before taking on what will be a physical Wisconsin team. There were 3 concussions suffered against Boise State and all three players expect to be back next week after taking the week off. In my opinion, with the offense clicking so much, another major benefit is that it can add additional wrinkles, perhaps a trick play even (that doesn't involve a rugby-style option play)???
Additionally, 10 of BYU's 11 FBS opponents played this weekend and went a combined 8-2. The 2 losses were by two of the bottom three on the schedule (Virginia and Nevada), both against ranked opponents where they were 17-point (or more) underdogs. 8-2 should help BYU significantly in terms of computer rankings. The win against Texas looks better and better as they move to 5-0 in the Big XII after a win this weekend against Jake Heaps and Kansas. While the Virginia loss continues to baffle as they dropped another game today by a wide margin, Utah did manage to beat Stanford a few weeks back (bye this weekend). Middle Tennessee is now just one win away from bowl eligibility and is in the hunt for a CUSA division crown after a road win in conference today. Utah State kept pace with Boise in the MWC with another 5 TD margin of victory. Georgia Tech has won 3 straight games after BYU beat them. Houston moved to 7-1 with another large victory in conference. Admittedly, they play the 2nd-5th place teams the next 4 weeks so college football nation will learn if they are contenders or pretenders soon. Boise State put a beat down on Colorado State on the road this week. Wisconsin won by 19 at Iowa in a game that ensures BYU will be on the road against a ranked opponent this week in Madison. Notre Dame laid an egg defensively against Navy but still pulled out the victory in a game that should likewise cement them in the BCS standings for BYU's trip there. Nevada had a respectable game against Fresno State, but, on the road, against a top 20 opponent, they fell short.
Without playing, BYU made some noise this weekend. CBS projected (unofficially) BYU to be 28th in the BCS standings last week, with 3 teams ahead of them losing this week (Texas Tech, Michigan, and Virginia Tech) and only 1 team behind them that had a somewhat big win over the weekend (Georgia beating Florida). According to CBS, BYU's average computer ranking is 22.25, and they should only move up (though it's possible any gains there will be offset by losses in human polls that are fickle enough to punish teams during bye weeks). My model has BYU in the top 25 again this week, after cracking it after Boise State for the first time this season. BYU should certainly be knocking on the door of the BCS standings for the first time since December of 2009. I'd say, all in all, not a bad week for a team that didn't play a game.
But it's all for naught though unless BYU earns it. It's nice to think that BYU will be somewhere between #25 and #27 Sunday night, but if they don't beat a Wisconsin team that should be ranked around 20-23 next week in Madison, it doesn't matter. It's always been my contention that BYU, Bronco, the team, Cougar fans, etc. need to stop talking and start winning. If BYU beat Virginia OR scored a few points in the red zone against Utah, BYU would be ranked right now no questions asked. They'd be deserving of that ranking too. The fact is, though, they lost those two games b/c they were not a top 25 team back then, and, therefore, not a BCS team now.
If BYU wants to be ranked at the end of the year, they know what they have to do. I'll give you a hint, it doesn't involve wondering "what if" for Virginia and Utah. It is all about beating Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Nothing says we belong in the top 15 like ending the season on a 10-game winning streak (which BYU could do if it won out and their bowl game). Nothing says we're setting our sights on a BCS Bowl game in 2014 like an 11-2 season, returning a lot of players including a QB, and heading into a significantly easier schedule in 2014 than 2013. Regardless of how it turns out, I'm sure Cougar Nation will hear something this off season about a BCS game. Someone always says something. The fact is though: BYU hasn't really been close since 2006, when one Hawaii loss would have put the greatest BYU team of my adult lifetime into the Sugar Bowl game against Georgia instead of a 38-8 beat down of Oregon in Las Vegas.
I am ready for BYU to put up, b/c I know we never shut up! The stage is set this week: BYU could not ask for a bigger stage to get it done. To quote Daryl from The Office: you've got to get out there and earn, son!
Additionally, 10 of BYU's 11 FBS opponents played this weekend and went a combined 8-2. The 2 losses were by two of the bottom three on the schedule (Virginia and Nevada), both against ranked opponents where they were 17-point (or more) underdogs. 8-2 should help BYU significantly in terms of computer rankings. The win against Texas looks better and better as they move to 5-0 in the Big XII after a win this weekend against Jake Heaps and Kansas. While the Virginia loss continues to baffle as they dropped another game today by a wide margin, Utah did manage to beat Stanford a few weeks back (bye this weekend). Middle Tennessee is now just one win away from bowl eligibility and is in the hunt for a CUSA division crown after a road win in conference today. Utah State kept pace with Boise in the MWC with another 5 TD margin of victory. Georgia Tech has won 3 straight games after BYU beat them. Houston moved to 7-1 with another large victory in conference. Admittedly, they play the 2nd-5th place teams the next 4 weeks so college football nation will learn if they are contenders or pretenders soon. Boise State put a beat down on Colorado State on the road this week. Wisconsin won by 19 at Iowa in a game that ensures BYU will be on the road against a ranked opponent this week in Madison. Notre Dame laid an egg defensively against Navy but still pulled out the victory in a game that should likewise cement them in the BCS standings for BYU's trip there. Nevada had a respectable game against Fresno State, but, on the road, against a top 20 opponent, they fell short.
Without playing, BYU made some noise this weekend. CBS projected (unofficially) BYU to be 28th in the BCS standings last week, with 3 teams ahead of them losing this week (Texas Tech, Michigan, and Virginia Tech) and only 1 team behind them that had a somewhat big win over the weekend (Georgia beating Florida). According to CBS, BYU's average computer ranking is 22.25, and they should only move up (though it's possible any gains there will be offset by losses in human polls that are fickle enough to punish teams during bye weeks). My model has BYU in the top 25 again this week, after cracking it after Boise State for the first time this season. BYU should certainly be knocking on the door of the BCS standings for the first time since December of 2009. I'd say, all in all, not a bad week for a team that didn't play a game.
But it's all for naught though unless BYU earns it. It's nice to think that BYU will be somewhere between #25 and #27 Sunday night, but if they don't beat a Wisconsin team that should be ranked around 20-23 next week in Madison, it doesn't matter. It's always been my contention that BYU, Bronco, the team, Cougar fans, etc. need to stop talking and start winning. If BYU beat Virginia OR scored a few points in the red zone against Utah, BYU would be ranked right now no questions asked. They'd be deserving of that ranking too. The fact is, though, they lost those two games b/c they were not a top 25 team back then, and, therefore, not a BCS team now.
If BYU wants to be ranked at the end of the year, they know what they have to do. I'll give you a hint, it doesn't involve wondering "what if" for Virginia and Utah. It is all about beating Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Nothing says we belong in the top 15 like ending the season on a 10-game winning streak (which BYU could do if it won out and their bowl game). Nothing says we're setting our sights on a BCS Bowl game in 2014 like an 11-2 season, returning a lot of players including a QB, and heading into a significantly easier schedule in 2014 than 2013. Regardless of how it turns out, I'm sure Cougar Nation will hear something this off season about a BCS game. Someone always says something. The fact is though: BYU hasn't really been close since 2006, when one Hawaii loss would have put the greatest BYU team of my adult lifetime into the Sugar Bowl game against Georgia instead of a 38-8 beat down of Oregon in Las Vegas.
I am ready for BYU to put up, b/c I know we never shut up! The stage is set this week: BYU could not ask for a bigger stage to get it done. To quote Daryl from The Office: you've got to get out there and earn, son!
Friday, October 25, 2013
Boise State at BYU Prediction
Boise State O vs. BYU D
The Broncos visit and will be a challenge for BYU. They are extremely balanced on offense, with 224 yards/game on the ground and 270 yards/game through the air. Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi has averaged more than 5 yards/carry in 5 games of Boise State's 7 games this season. They have 3 or 4 WRs that are capable of having a good game. The inexperienced QB getting the start tonight is mobile and very accurate in the short passing game. No one has really seen what he does down the field.
In my opinion, the 2013 Boise State Broncos play right into BYU's defensive strengths. BYU can handle dynamic RBs, good WRs, and mobile QBs. They struggle more with the big-play WRs and accurate down-the-field passers. BYU will try to contain the run, particularly the zone-read, which shouldn't be too big of a problem after facing Georgia Tech just a few weeks ago. They will force the Broncos to dink and dunk down the field. Advantage BYU.
BYU O vs. Boise State D
Taysom is playing well, the WRs have stepped up against more zone coverage, and there are a couple of pretty good RBs. The OL has the ability to get manhandled by athletic smaller DL. I think this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Boise State plays a lot of man defense. They have a small, athletic DL. If BYU can break a few big plays, they could loosen up the coverage a bit. However, Boise State will remain aggressive defensively. Particularly, what BYU needs to do is get some of the ball skills Ridley, Mathews, Apo, and Hoffman have shown the past few weeks. Still, Boise State's ability to disrupt the rhythm passing game gives them an opportunity to force Taysom and Jamaal Williams to beat them with their legs for 4 quarters. Advantage Boise State.
Prediction
Now that I've given the edge to both defenses, you'd probably think I'm predicting another low-scoring slugfest. However, in spite of the defenses having the advantage, I expect a lot of big plays in special teams and by the offenses. I don't think we'll see any long, time-consuming drives. I don't think either offense can nickel and dime their way down the field. But I look for a quasi-high-scoring shoot-out with big plays and punts. The stats may look like great offense, but I think we'll see a lot of frustrating poor offense in between the big plays, which I'll put at 3 per quarter.
I like Taysom over an inexperienced Grant Hedrick if it comes down to big plays and lots of points. BYU wins 38-27.
The Broncos visit and will be a challenge for BYU. They are extremely balanced on offense, with 224 yards/game on the ground and 270 yards/game through the air. Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi has averaged more than 5 yards/carry in 5 games of Boise State's 7 games this season. They have 3 or 4 WRs that are capable of having a good game. The inexperienced QB getting the start tonight is mobile and very accurate in the short passing game. No one has really seen what he does down the field.
In my opinion, the 2013 Boise State Broncos play right into BYU's defensive strengths. BYU can handle dynamic RBs, good WRs, and mobile QBs. They struggle more with the big-play WRs and accurate down-the-field passers. BYU will try to contain the run, particularly the zone-read, which shouldn't be too big of a problem after facing Georgia Tech just a few weeks ago. They will force the Broncos to dink and dunk down the field. Advantage BYU.
BYU O vs. Boise State D
Taysom is playing well, the WRs have stepped up against more zone coverage, and there are a couple of pretty good RBs. The OL has the ability to get manhandled by athletic smaller DL. I think this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Boise State plays a lot of man defense. They have a small, athletic DL. If BYU can break a few big plays, they could loosen up the coverage a bit. However, Boise State will remain aggressive defensively. Particularly, what BYU needs to do is get some of the ball skills Ridley, Mathews, Apo, and Hoffman have shown the past few weeks. Still, Boise State's ability to disrupt the rhythm passing game gives them an opportunity to force Taysom and Jamaal Williams to beat them with their legs for 4 quarters. Advantage Boise State.
Prediction
Now that I've given the edge to both defenses, you'd probably think I'm predicting another low-scoring slugfest. However, in spite of the defenses having the advantage, I expect a lot of big plays in special teams and by the offenses. I don't think we'll see any long, time-consuming drives. I don't think either offense can nickel and dime their way down the field. But I look for a quasi-high-scoring shoot-out with big plays and punts. The stats may look like great offense, but I think we'll see a lot of frustrating poor offense in between the big plays, which I'll put at 3 per quarter.
I like Taysom over an inexperienced Grant Hedrick if it comes down to big plays and lots of points. BYU wins 38-27.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Random Stats for a Thursday
I spent the past two days looking over every BYU defensive play this season. There are some stats that I found pretty interesting, and I'll share.
Rush Defense
76.5% of all rushing plays against BYU go for 5 yards or less. 92.3% go for 10 yards or less. 25.4% go for no gain or a loss. I have no idea how that compares nationally, but I'd have to think that's pretty good. It makes it difficult to pound it on the ground against BYU. If a full quarter of your rushing plays go nowhere or backwards, one penalty makes it difficult to sustain drives.
Virginia and Middle Tennessee each had only 1 rush over 10 yards. Utah and Houston each had only 2. Utah State had 3. Texas had 4. Georgia Tech managed 8, but it took 53 rushing plays (and only 1 of those rushes exceeded 20 yards).
The BYU run defense has been stout. Again, I don't know how this looks nationally, but if fewer than 3 rushes per game go for more than 10 yards and 14 rushes per game go for no gain or losses, Bronco must be doing something right. Only 1 out of every 70 rushing attempts goes for 20+ yards. Every 13 rushes teams go for 10+. BYU has done a great job keeping things in front of them in the run game for the most part.
Pass Defense
BYU's pass defense hasn't quite had the same success. This is a pretty familiar tale for most teams these days as offenses go crazy. BYU has done a great job in pass defense, with 45.6% of passes resulting in incompletions or interceptions. Of the 143 completions BYU has given up, 35.7% have gone for 5 yards or less (includes 3.5% of completions resulting in loss of yardage). 69.9% of those completions have been 10 yards or less. 11.9% of completions have resulted in 20+ yards, however, with 8 passes going for over 40 yards. Houston had 4 of those, so prior to that, BYU was giving up one 40-yard pass play every 6 quarters.
Keeping it in perspective, however, BYU hasn't played an Oregon, Baylor, or Texas Tech. Houston is similar to those teams, but they aren't those teams. Prior to Houston, my father told me BYU's D was rolling and would shut them down, just as they had every other game this season. I told him this: "the best offense BYU has played this season is Utah, which is not a very good offense. They gave up 4 big plays that game and that was the difference. Houston should double that b/c they are twice the offense Utah was. BYU's offense will have to score for BYU to win." I was wrong, Houston only had 5, but they doubled up Utah in points. I was right that BYU's offense would have to put up a lot of points to win...and they did.
Overall
Teams cannot run on BYU, so they will have to make their living passing. That bodes well for the remainder of BYU's schedule. Boise is the most balanced attack BYU will face, Wisconsin and Notre Dame are run-heavy, and Idaho State and Nevada should not be contests. BYU gives up an average of 3 plays over 20 yards/game, about 0.5 rushing and 2.5 passing. If they can hold their average against those three opponents, they should be able to secure victories in each of those games. If they can't sustain that success, or if any team can also find success on the ground against BYU, then BYU won't win those games.
Rush Defense
76.5% of all rushing plays against BYU go for 5 yards or less. 92.3% go for 10 yards or less. 25.4% go for no gain or a loss. I have no idea how that compares nationally, but I'd have to think that's pretty good. It makes it difficult to pound it on the ground against BYU. If a full quarter of your rushing plays go nowhere or backwards, one penalty makes it difficult to sustain drives.
Virginia and Middle Tennessee each had only 1 rush over 10 yards. Utah and Houston each had only 2. Utah State had 3. Texas had 4. Georgia Tech managed 8, but it took 53 rushing plays (and only 1 of those rushes exceeded 20 yards).
The BYU run defense has been stout. Again, I don't know how this looks nationally, but if fewer than 3 rushes per game go for more than 10 yards and 14 rushes per game go for no gain or losses, Bronco must be doing something right. Only 1 out of every 70 rushing attempts goes for 20+ yards. Every 13 rushes teams go for 10+. BYU has done a great job keeping things in front of them in the run game for the most part.
Pass Defense
BYU's pass defense hasn't quite had the same success. This is a pretty familiar tale for most teams these days as offenses go crazy. BYU has done a great job in pass defense, with 45.6% of passes resulting in incompletions or interceptions. Of the 143 completions BYU has given up, 35.7% have gone for 5 yards or less (includes 3.5% of completions resulting in loss of yardage). 69.9% of those completions have been 10 yards or less. 11.9% of completions have resulted in 20+ yards, however, with 8 passes going for over 40 yards. Houston had 4 of those, so prior to that, BYU was giving up one 40-yard pass play every 6 quarters.
Keeping it in perspective, however, BYU hasn't played an Oregon, Baylor, or Texas Tech. Houston is similar to those teams, but they aren't those teams. Prior to Houston, my father told me BYU's D was rolling and would shut them down, just as they had every other game this season. I told him this: "the best offense BYU has played this season is Utah, which is not a very good offense. They gave up 4 big plays that game and that was the difference. Houston should double that b/c they are twice the offense Utah was. BYU's offense will have to score for BYU to win." I was wrong, Houston only had 5, but they doubled up Utah in points. I was right that BYU's offense would have to put up a lot of points to win...and they did.
Overall
Teams cannot run on BYU, so they will have to make their living passing. That bodes well for the remainder of BYU's schedule. Boise is the most balanced attack BYU will face, Wisconsin and Notre Dame are run-heavy, and Idaho State and Nevada should not be contests. BYU gives up an average of 3 plays over 20 yards/game, about 0.5 rushing and 2.5 passing. If they can hold their average against those three opponents, they should be able to secure victories in each of those games. If they can't sustain that success, or if any team can also find success on the ground against BYU, then BYU won't win those games.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Sacks and Red Zone
The two areas that BYU fans seem the most concerned about (besides the secondary) are how many sacks they give up and how they perform in the red zone. So, here are some thoughts.
SACKS
Taysom Hill has been sacked 22 times this season. He has thrown 235 passes. I realize there are times that he scrambles on called pass plays for positive yardage but I'd have to go revisit every play of every game to account for those. So, leaving that out, statistically speaking, this means he gets sacked roughly every 11.8 passing plays. In the 1980's or 1990's, or even the 2000's, that would actually be about average. However, in today's high-octane spread offense where the ball comes out quickly, this is well below average (national average is 17.7). In fact, last season, where it seemed Riley Nelson was constantly on the ground, it was every 17.6 passes that a BYU QB was sacked.
In 2013, there are only 21 teams that get sacked more frequently. This is not the kind of company Garrett Tujague and Robert Anae would want to be associated with: Navy (3-3), Idaho (1-6), Florida International (1-5), Pittsburgh (4-2), Connecticut (0-6), New Mexico (2-5), Miami OH (0-7), Rutgers (4-2), Iowa State (1-5), Minnesota (5-2), Kansas (2-4), Army (3-5), Boston College (3-3), Northwestern (4-3), Florida (4-3), South Florida (2-4), Tulane (5-2), Eastern Michigan (1-6), Kentucky (1-5), Hawaii (0-6), and Central Michigan (3-5). These teams combine for a 49-89 record, and none of them appear in this week's rankings (though Florida and Northwestern have at one point this season), and none of these offenses ranks in the top 50 for total or scoring offense except for Rutgers and New Mexico, but I'll go ahead and say that may have something to do with competition level and not quality of offense.
Now, I don't blame the shuffling on the OL like many do. If anything, I actually think that helps keep BYU ahead of those other 21 teams. Taysom Hill is not being sacked b/c of missed assignments. Mobile QBs are sometimes difficult to block for. Taysom's pocket presence isn't amazing in terms of when to step up, when to step back, and when to move left or right. Realistically though, a lot of the sacks are guys just plain getting beat or guys who are beat (as in tired). When BYU goes as fast and as hard as they do, the DL is still rotating more than the OL. Plus, BYU does not have a lot of great offensive linemen to begin with (but more on that in the "Red Zone" section). Shuffling isn't the problem, it's just not a great OL.
With that said, take out the 8 sacks in the Houston game, and all of a sudden, it's every 14.8 pass plays Hill gets sacked. That adds another 15 teams that BYU would be better than.
RED ZONE
The first question to answer is: does BYU really struggle in the red zone or is it just fans having too high of expectations? BYU has scored on 82.4% of all red zone possessions, good to tie for 72nd in the country, which is slightly below average (though, shockingly, Taysom/BYU are ranked higher than Johnny Football's aTm and Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks). However, looking strictly at TD's, BYU gets touchdowns on only 50% of its red zone trips, putting them in a tie for 100th in the country, or the bottom quintile (and significantly worse than Johnny and Marcus, at 69% and 72%, respectively). So, yes, BYU is struggling in the red zone. The 51st highest scoring offense in the country is the 23rd worst red zone scoring offense. That may explain why the 14th total offense in the country is the 51st scoring offense in the country...
To me, I believe the problem has generally been inside the 10-yard line, and that was evident in the Houston game. On 4 possessions, BYU scored TDs in the red zone, but outside of the 10-yard line. Justin Sorensen also made a FG on a red zone possession outside the 10-yard line. However, on the 3 possessions BYU cracked the 10, they had 1 TD, 1 TO, and 1 FG. 100% scoring, 80% TD red zone scoring outside the 10-yard line vs. 67% scoring, 33% TD red zone scoring inside the 10-yard line.
Aggregating those numbers across all games, when BYU gets inside the 10-yard line, they have scored 10 TDs in 19 possessions. 7 of those TDs were either a 1 or 2-yard run. The exceptions were a 4-yard pass to Falslev at Virginia, a 10-yard TD run from Paul Lasike against Texas, and a 6-yard pass to Mitch Matthews against Utah State. Additionally, they have 5 turnovers inside the 10 yard-line and have attempted 4 field goals.
There are two things that stand out to me once BYU gets inside the 10-yard line: 1) they cannot pass and 2) they cannot run. Taysom is 3-10 with 2 TDs and 1 INT from inside the 10-yard line: those numbers will not get the job done (in fact, they eerily match Taysom's numbers during BYU's 1-2 start to the season). In terms of running the ball, BYU had 19 rushing attempts between the 3 and 10-yard lines and only managed ONE touchdown (12 of those attempts came against teams not in the top 50 scoring or rushing defenses, yielding the 1 TD). If BYU can't throw the ball b/c Taysom is 30% with a 10% chance of an INT and BYU can't run the ball until they get 1 or 2 yards away from the end zone, it's problematic for expecting a better return in the red zone.
The problems are a young QB and an average Offensive Line. Again, it isn't the shuffling of the OL that gets me. There are 3 guys that are probably good but just aren't very experienced. There are 3 guys who are experienced but are probably not very good. There are 3 guys that I haven't made my mind up about yet (who are experienced). If BYU doesn't have 5 good, experienced offensive linemen, which I believe is the case, BYU will have to fight for every inch on the goal line, which has definitely been the case. In their defense, they have scored 7 TDs on 8 attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line.
Taysom is young. He is getting better all-around, the red zone passing will improve. Still, in the red zone, BYU's WRs see a lot of tight, press, man-to-man coverage. That is not a scenario where they will consistently succeed. I think BYU's red zone success will come through the maturation of young OL and Taysom making smarter decisions, finding better windows, and utilizing his mobility to get guys open (who won't get open on their own). Otherwise, BYU will just have to rely on big plays to score.
A 53% TD ratio inside the 10-yard line is not the sign of an elite team. BYU needs that number at 75-80% against Boise, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, and the overall red zone TD % above 60%. If they had done that for the season, they'd be 6-1 and ranked, with a victory over in-state rival Utah. As it is, an average OL, a young QB, and zone-busting WRs in a man-to-man world means that BYU will likely only ever get ranked this season if they can beat Boise State and Wisconsin.
TD/Turnover/FG
10/5/4 (inside 10)
7/1/7 (outside 10)
SACKS
Taysom Hill has been sacked 22 times this season. He has thrown 235 passes. I realize there are times that he scrambles on called pass plays for positive yardage but I'd have to go revisit every play of every game to account for those. So, leaving that out, statistically speaking, this means he gets sacked roughly every 11.8 passing plays. In the 1980's or 1990's, or even the 2000's, that would actually be about average. However, in today's high-octane spread offense where the ball comes out quickly, this is well below average (national average is 17.7). In fact, last season, where it seemed Riley Nelson was constantly on the ground, it was every 17.6 passes that a BYU QB was sacked.
In 2013, there are only 21 teams that get sacked more frequently. This is not the kind of company Garrett Tujague and Robert Anae would want to be associated with: Navy (3-3), Idaho (1-6), Florida International (1-5), Pittsburgh (4-2), Connecticut (0-6), New Mexico (2-5), Miami OH (0-7), Rutgers (4-2), Iowa State (1-5), Minnesota (5-2), Kansas (2-4), Army (3-5), Boston College (3-3), Northwestern (4-3), Florida (4-3), South Florida (2-4), Tulane (5-2), Eastern Michigan (1-6), Kentucky (1-5), Hawaii (0-6), and Central Michigan (3-5). These teams combine for a 49-89 record, and none of them appear in this week's rankings (though Florida and Northwestern have at one point this season), and none of these offenses ranks in the top 50 for total or scoring offense except for Rutgers and New Mexico, but I'll go ahead and say that may have something to do with competition level and not quality of offense.
Now, I don't blame the shuffling on the OL like many do. If anything, I actually think that helps keep BYU ahead of those other 21 teams. Taysom Hill is not being sacked b/c of missed assignments. Mobile QBs are sometimes difficult to block for. Taysom's pocket presence isn't amazing in terms of when to step up, when to step back, and when to move left or right. Realistically though, a lot of the sacks are guys just plain getting beat or guys who are beat (as in tired). When BYU goes as fast and as hard as they do, the DL is still rotating more than the OL. Plus, BYU does not have a lot of great offensive linemen to begin with (but more on that in the "Red Zone" section). Shuffling isn't the problem, it's just not a great OL.
With that said, take out the 8 sacks in the Houston game, and all of a sudden, it's every 14.8 pass plays Hill gets sacked. That adds another 15 teams that BYU would be better than.
RED ZONE
The first question to answer is: does BYU really struggle in the red zone or is it just fans having too high of expectations? BYU has scored on 82.4% of all red zone possessions, good to tie for 72nd in the country, which is slightly below average (though, shockingly, Taysom/BYU are ranked higher than Johnny Football's aTm and Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks). However, looking strictly at TD's, BYU gets touchdowns on only 50% of its red zone trips, putting them in a tie for 100th in the country, or the bottom quintile (and significantly worse than Johnny and Marcus, at 69% and 72%, respectively). So, yes, BYU is struggling in the red zone. The 51st highest scoring offense in the country is the 23rd worst red zone scoring offense. That may explain why the 14th total offense in the country is the 51st scoring offense in the country...
To me, I believe the problem has generally been inside the 10-yard line, and that was evident in the Houston game. On 4 possessions, BYU scored TDs in the red zone, but outside of the 10-yard line. Justin Sorensen also made a FG on a red zone possession outside the 10-yard line. However, on the 3 possessions BYU cracked the 10, they had 1 TD, 1 TO, and 1 FG. 100% scoring, 80% TD red zone scoring outside the 10-yard line vs. 67% scoring, 33% TD red zone scoring inside the 10-yard line.
Aggregating those numbers across all games, when BYU gets inside the 10-yard line, they have scored 10 TDs in 19 possessions. 7 of those TDs were either a 1 or 2-yard run. The exceptions were a 4-yard pass to Falslev at Virginia, a 10-yard TD run from Paul Lasike against Texas, and a 6-yard pass to Mitch Matthews against Utah State. Additionally, they have 5 turnovers inside the 10 yard-line and have attempted 4 field goals.
There are two things that stand out to me once BYU gets inside the 10-yard line: 1) they cannot pass and 2) they cannot run. Taysom is 3-10 with 2 TDs and 1 INT from inside the 10-yard line: those numbers will not get the job done (in fact, they eerily match Taysom's numbers during BYU's 1-2 start to the season). In terms of running the ball, BYU had 19 rushing attempts between the 3 and 10-yard lines and only managed ONE touchdown (12 of those attempts came against teams not in the top 50 scoring or rushing defenses, yielding the 1 TD). If BYU can't throw the ball b/c Taysom is 30% with a 10% chance of an INT and BYU can't run the ball until they get 1 or 2 yards away from the end zone, it's problematic for expecting a better return in the red zone.
The problems are a young QB and an average Offensive Line. Again, it isn't the shuffling of the OL that gets me. There are 3 guys that are probably good but just aren't very experienced. There are 3 guys who are experienced but are probably not very good. There are 3 guys that I haven't made my mind up about yet (who are experienced). If BYU doesn't have 5 good, experienced offensive linemen, which I believe is the case, BYU will have to fight for every inch on the goal line, which has definitely been the case. In their defense, they have scored 7 TDs on 8 attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line.
Taysom is young. He is getting better all-around, the red zone passing will improve. Still, in the red zone, BYU's WRs see a lot of tight, press, man-to-man coverage. That is not a scenario where they will consistently succeed. I think BYU's red zone success will come through the maturation of young OL and Taysom making smarter decisions, finding better windows, and utilizing his mobility to get guys open (who won't get open on their own). Otherwise, BYU will just have to rely on big plays to score.
A 53% TD ratio inside the 10-yard line is not the sign of an elite team. BYU needs that number at 75-80% against Boise, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, and the overall red zone TD % above 60%. If they had done that for the season, they'd be 6-1 and ranked, with a victory over in-state rival Utah. As it is, an average OL, a young QB, and zone-busting WRs in a man-to-man world means that BYU will likely only ever get ranked this season if they can beat Boise State and Wisconsin.
TD/Turnover/FG
10/5/4 (inside 10)
7/1/7 (outside 10)
Monday, October 21, 2013
BYU (and Mo) Back on Track
I have been sufficiently reminded by my family that my prediction and analysis has been lacking in this space for a few weeks. I apologize, it was the perfect storm of "stuff" preventing me from having the appropriate time to put forth a solid effort. I promise to go re-watch the BYU games this week and have some additional insights from them...
Initially, the obvious insight is: BYU is getting better. I'm not predicting the same outcome as 2006, but it sure looks like the team didn't figure out how to be good until it was already too late (2 losses, including one that would have said something: Utah), just as it did in 2006. The run defense is phenomenal. The pass defense is serviceable, with its biggest weakness the propensity to give up the big play. They have been pretty dang good at screens and short and intermediate passes. Offensively, other than one or two too many turnovers each game, the team is moving the ball, with much fewer three and outs than earlier in the year and just as many big plays. The attack is definitely more balanced now for 2 big reasons, first being most important in my opinion: 1) WRs are playing better (fewer drops, better routes, and making more difficult plays including getting some yards after catch) and 2) Taysom is more accurate (though his decision-making is still a bit sub-par at times).
The problem now is: can better play turn into more wins? There has been a huge mental issue for BYU when it comes to certain games. Utah and Boise State haven't been "better" than BYU in a lot of their recent contests, but BYU hasn't been able to get out of its own way to pull off victories. So now Boise State looms. Are the Cougars mentally able to get to that next gear? Perhaps the way they managed to pull out the game against Houston is the turning point. It was certainly the first time this season the Cougars dug deep in the 4th Q of a tight game to eke out a win. GT had that potential before Alani Fua took care of things at the end of the 3rd Q and BYU rolled from there. Virginia and Utah were failures in that regard. They had opportunities to win, but didn't capitalize.
BYU has 3 big chances left to finish the season "right" but, like many Cougar fans, I think it takes 9 or 10 wins to really do that. They absolutely must beat Boise State this week. If BYU does not win that game is entirely, 100% mental. They had also better win at least one of the other two big contests at Wisconsin and Notre Dame. After watching Notre Dame very closely this season (and standing for 3.5 straight hours last weekend against USC), that is absolutely a beatable team, given BYU's style, personnel, and tempo. More on that in a few weeks, but I now fully expect BYU to win that game.
Good to be back. I hope you feel the same!
Initially, the obvious insight is: BYU is getting better. I'm not predicting the same outcome as 2006, but it sure looks like the team didn't figure out how to be good until it was already too late (2 losses, including one that would have said something: Utah), just as it did in 2006. The run defense is phenomenal. The pass defense is serviceable, with its biggest weakness the propensity to give up the big play. They have been pretty dang good at screens and short and intermediate passes. Offensively, other than one or two too many turnovers each game, the team is moving the ball, with much fewer three and outs than earlier in the year and just as many big plays. The attack is definitely more balanced now for 2 big reasons, first being most important in my opinion: 1) WRs are playing better (fewer drops, better routes, and making more difficult plays including getting some yards after catch) and 2) Taysom is more accurate (though his decision-making is still a bit sub-par at times).
The problem now is: can better play turn into more wins? There has been a huge mental issue for BYU when it comes to certain games. Utah and Boise State haven't been "better" than BYU in a lot of their recent contests, but BYU hasn't been able to get out of its own way to pull off victories. So now Boise State looms. Are the Cougars mentally able to get to that next gear? Perhaps the way they managed to pull out the game against Houston is the turning point. It was certainly the first time this season the Cougars dug deep in the 4th Q of a tight game to eke out a win. GT had that potential before Alani Fua took care of things at the end of the 3rd Q and BYU rolled from there. Virginia and Utah were failures in that regard. They had opportunities to win, but didn't capitalize.
BYU has 3 big chances left to finish the season "right" but, like many Cougar fans, I think it takes 9 or 10 wins to really do that. They absolutely must beat Boise State this week. If BYU does not win that game is entirely, 100% mental. They had also better win at least one of the other two big contests at Wisconsin and Notre Dame. After watching Notre Dame very closely this season (and standing for 3.5 straight hours last weekend against USC), that is absolutely a beatable team, given BYU's style, personnel, and tempo. More on that in a few weeks, but I now fully expect BYU to win that game.
Good to be back. I hope you feel the same!
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Utah State Preview
Utah State has come a long way as a program in a short time. They were once an after thought in the state of Utah. Now, they beat Utah in 2012 and BYU in 2010, while offering competitive games in many other recent contests. Indeed, Gary Anderson changed the culture at Utah State. And he has Ron McBride to thank.
Ron McBride spent much of his coaching tenure at Utah focused on one thing: figuring out how to beat BYU. He went 5-5 in those contests. He knew that his best chance of making Utah relevant was finding a way to replace BYU at the top of the WAC (and then MWC). So he put in the effort and figured it out. He put together the type of talent and schemes that could do it (half the time at least). In steps Urban Meyer, with Gary Anderson as an assistant coach. They have a winning formula: in order to compete nationally, you have to be relevant locally. Kyle Whittingham and Gary Anderson continued with what McBride started and Urban perfected. They recruited big bodies to occupy the line of scrimmage and they played tight, man-to-man defense in the secondary. They played physical, particularly on the outsides. BYU's expertise was precise route-running WRs. If DBs could force them off their routes, BYU's offensive advantage was mitigated. If LBs could jam BYU's TEs off the line, they would be eliminated. Offensively, they recruited the athleticism that BYU simply couldn't. BYU's defense was often exploited.
Gary Anderson took these philosophies to Logan, understanding that first and foremost, you have to be relevant locally to compete nationally. They heavily recruited local Polynesians who valued early playing time to shore up their OL/DL. They went after athletic WR/DB/RB types, often smaller, and always shunned by larger schools. They scoured the local farm communities for LBs and DL. Their roster was soon filled with athleticism and physicality, and with players that had a chip on their shoulders b/c they didn't feel like they got a fair shake from BYU or Utah, or other big schools close to wherever their homes were. He created rivalries out of "obligations." BYU and Utah felt obligated to play Utah State and beat them, badly in many cases, for decades. Now, he competed with them for every inch of the field.
He changed the culture at Utah State. Now, he left it to his offensive coordinator to keep the momentum going. Time will tell if Matt Wells can hang long-term. Even if he doesn't, Utah State matters locally for now. Some idiot at KSL said the program is on-par with BYU now, which couldn't be further from the truth. They may win Friday night, but make no mistake, Utah State is still the little brother in this weird three-way relationship.
Now to the actual team as it stands in 2013.
Chuckie Keeton is dynamic. He can run but he is so much better this year at using his legs to extend plays so he can throw. Utah State is going to be balanced on offense. The front 3 on defense are going to try to clog up blockers while the back 8 play physical, borderline reckless, defense. That is who Utah State is. Can BYU's D corral Keeton and force him to throw, and to do it from the pocket? Can the BYU WRs deliver some punishment instead of backing down (like they have done to Utah every year for over a decade now, and certainly did the last time up in Logan)? Can BYU's rushing attack withstand an onslaught from 8 or 9 guys in the box every play? With outside blitzes coming to take away Taysom's zone-read?
That is who Utah State is. That is what BYU will see. Does BYU even have an identity? Does Utah State have any idea what they will see?
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are, hands down, the two best coaches in college football and here is why: they know what their teams can and can't do, and every down, they do what they can. Nick Saban is going to run the football and stop the run. He's going to play-action pass to matriculate the ball up the field in chunks. He's going to throw screen passes in blitz situations. He won't be cute with gimmicks and throwing the ball 40 times a game. He knows his team and declares: stop us. That is the consistency BYU played with under Bronco the first 4-5 years. Since then it's been a mystery every year, even varying from game to game. I suppose the element of surprise is nice, but the end result has generally been boring offensive play and an unfamiliar-to-BYU-fans amount of losses.
Utah State knows who they are. BYU knows who Utah State is. We'll find out how much identity matters in 3 days.
Ron McBride spent much of his coaching tenure at Utah focused on one thing: figuring out how to beat BYU. He went 5-5 in those contests. He knew that his best chance of making Utah relevant was finding a way to replace BYU at the top of the WAC (and then MWC). So he put in the effort and figured it out. He put together the type of talent and schemes that could do it (half the time at least). In steps Urban Meyer, with Gary Anderson as an assistant coach. They have a winning formula: in order to compete nationally, you have to be relevant locally. Kyle Whittingham and Gary Anderson continued with what McBride started and Urban perfected. They recruited big bodies to occupy the line of scrimmage and they played tight, man-to-man defense in the secondary. They played physical, particularly on the outsides. BYU's expertise was precise route-running WRs. If DBs could force them off their routes, BYU's offensive advantage was mitigated. If LBs could jam BYU's TEs off the line, they would be eliminated. Offensively, they recruited the athleticism that BYU simply couldn't. BYU's defense was often exploited.
Gary Anderson took these philosophies to Logan, understanding that first and foremost, you have to be relevant locally to compete nationally. They heavily recruited local Polynesians who valued early playing time to shore up their OL/DL. They went after athletic WR/DB/RB types, often smaller, and always shunned by larger schools. They scoured the local farm communities for LBs and DL. Their roster was soon filled with athleticism and physicality, and with players that had a chip on their shoulders b/c they didn't feel like they got a fair shake from BYU or Utah, or other big schools close to wherever their homes were. He created rivalries out of "obligations." BYU and Utah felt obligated to play Utah State and beat them, badly in many cases, for decades. Now, he competed with them for every inch of the field.
He changed the culture at Utah State. Now, he left it to his offensive coordinator to keep the momentum going. Time will tell if Matt Wells can hang long-term. Even if he doesn't, Utah State matters locally for now. Some idiot at KSL said the program is on-par with BYU now, which couldn't be further from the truth. They may win Friday night, but make no mistake, Utah State is still the little brother in this weird three-way relationship.
Now to the actual team as it stands in 2013.
Chuckie Keeton is dynamic. He can run but he is so much better this year at using his legs to extend plays so he can throw. Utah State is going to be balanced on offense. The front 3 on defense are going to try to clog up blockers while the back 8 play physical, borderline reckless, defense. That is who Utah State is. Can BYU's D corral Keeton and force him to throw, and to do it from the pocket? Can the BYU WRs deliver some punishment instead of backing down (like they have done to Utah every year for over a decade now, and certainly did the last time up in Logan)? Can BYU's rushing attack withstand an onslaught from 8 or 9 guys in the box every play? With outside blitzes coming to take away Taysom's zone-read?
That is who Utah State is. That is what BYU will see. Does BYU even have an identity? Does Utah State have any idea what they will see?
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are, hands down, the two best coaches in college football and here is why: they know what their teams can and can't do, and every down, they do what they can. Nick Saban is going to run the football and stop the run. He's going to play-action pass to matriculate the ball up the field in chunks. He's going to throw screen passes in blitz situations. He won't be cute with gimmicks and throwing the ball 40 times a game. He knows his team and declares: stop us. That is the consistency BYU played with under Bronco the first 4-5 years. Since then it's been a mystery every year, even varying from game to game. I suppose the element of surprise is nice, but the end result has generally been boring offensive play and an unfamiliar-to-BYU-fans amount of losses.
Utah State knows who they are. BYU knows who Utah State is. We'll find out how much identity matters in 3 days.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
MTSU-BYU Post-Game Reaction
Great final score. BYU played physical and bested a mid-level team, playing on the road, at altitude. However, not one to take it easy on the 2-2 Cougars who play a darn good football team in 7 days, there are some serious concerns. First, 5 turnovers. Second, 9 penalties for 80 yards. Third, 26 minutes of possession. Fourth, only forcing 1 turnover.
It just shows the disparity in talent level when you can be -4 in turnovers, -7.5 in time of possession, and commit a lot of high yardage penalties and still win by 27. The BYU defense has been amazing on all but about 6 plays the entire season. However, as phenomenal as it has been, it has only forced 3 turnovers the entire season. That was the difference in losses against UVa and Utah. BYU had opportunities to intercept passes in crucial situations and didn't get it done. Utah scored after a missed BYU pick. Middle Tennessee did the same tonight. Against Virginia, BYU twice had chances for INTs that would have given a struggling offense a chance to start in field goal range. Being -4 in turnovers is the offense's fault, but only forcing 3 turnovers in 4 games is the difference between 4-0 and 2-2. I understand the defense can't do everything but right now there are 3 things it isn't doing right now and that is one. The other two are kind of combined: they aren't taking away the short passes and yet they still give up big plays over the top. I have not figured out the strategy for BYU's pass defense yet. Huge cushions, which result in a lot of 3rd and medium conversions, but still 6 pass plays have gone for big yardage against them. And typically in critical situations...
Offensively, it was nice to see Taysom efficient with the football on the ground and through the air. I think the zone defense helped a lot. However, Utah State is going to do what the Utes did and BYU is going to have to respond a little better than they did last week. They will load the box. They will play tight, physical, man defense on the outside. They will blitz from the edge to keep Taysom's legs contained. They will force BYU to be one-dimensional and make Taysom beat them with his arm. They will accept him throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs and lose. They will not accept him rushing for 100 yards or 15 yards/carry. That will not happen. If he does that, it's because they had a bad day tackling.
There are a couple of firsts for Taysom. He completed over 50% of his passes, which had not happened this season prior to the game against the Blue Raiders. He averaged more than 6 yards/attempt (actually 9.3 tonight after a previous season high of 5.4). He ran and threw for over 150 each tonight. I think the play-calling tonight was designed to get Hill comfortable with the short to intermediate passing game. BYU will need that next week against a blitzing, aggressive, multi-faceted Utah State defense.
The receivers look more comfortable catching the ball as well. After a rough patch early on, it seems they also figured out what to do after they catch the ball (most of them weren't used to catching the ball AND having space to run afterwards). There are plenty of opportunities for that next week against a lot of man coverage!
Anyway, great win. BYU did what it was supposed to do: beat up and pound an inferior opponent. They more than tripled them on the scoreboard, they more than doubled them in yards, and they played more than double the number of third/fourth stringers. Next week, it's on. The winner gets to be little brother for the next year. The loser has to be the baby brother...Utes get to hold onto big brother for a while since they don't play Utah State until 2015 and BYU until 2016. This year they did what big brothers are supposed to do: they just play their game and wait for little bro to screw up and capitalize. Of course, both little brothers likely will have dates for the prom, while Utah might be sitting at home cashing a big fat check, watching them play in late December while they cash a much smaller check...
It just shows the disparity in talent level when you can be -4 in turnovers, -7.5 in time of possession, and commit a lot of high yardage penalties and still win by 27. The BYU defense has been amazing on all but about 6 plays the entire season. However, as phenomenal as it has been, it has only forced 3 turnovers the entire season. That was the difference in losses against UVa and Utah. BYU had opportunities to intercept passes in crucial situations and didn't get it done. Utah scored after a missed BYU pick. Middle Tennessee did the same tonight. Against Virginia, BYU twice had chances for INTs that would have given a struggling offense a chance to start in field goal range. Being -4 in turnovers is the offense's fault, but only forcing 3 turnovers in 4 games is the difference between 4-0 and 2-2. I understand the defense can't do everything but right now there are 3 things it isn't doing right now and that is one. The other two are kind of combined: they aren't taking away the short passes and yet they still give up big plays over the top. I have not figured out the strategy for BYU's pass defense yet. Huge cushions, which result in a lot of 3rd and medium conversions, but still 6 pass plays have gone for big yardage against them. And typically in critical situations...
Offensively, it was nice to see Taysom efficient with the football on the ground and through the air. I think the zone defense helped a lot. However, Utah State is going to do what the Utes did and BYU is going to have to respond a little better than they did last week. They will load the box. They will play tight, physical, man defense on the outside. They will blitz from the edge to keep Taysom's legs contained. They will force BYU to be one-dimensional and make Taysom beat them with his arm. They will accept him throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs and lose. They will not accept him rushing for 100 yards or 15 yards/carry. That will not happen. If he does that, it's because they had a bad day tackling.
There are a couple of firsts for Taysom. He completed over 50% of his passes, which had not happened this season prior to the game against the Blue Raiders. He averaged more than 6 yards/attempt (actually 9.3 tonight after a previous season high of 5.4). He ran and threw for over 150 each tonight. I think the play-calling tonight was designed to get Hill comfortable with the short to intermediate passing game. BYU will need that next week against a blitzing, aggressive, multi-faceted Utah State defense.
The receivers look more comfortable catching the ball as well. After a rough patch early on, it seems they also figured out what to do after they catch the ball (most of them weren't used to catching the ball AND having space to run afterwards). There are plenty of opportunities for that next week against a lot of man coverage!
Anyway, great win. BYU did what it was supposed to do: beat up and pound an inferior opponent. They more than tripled them on the scoreboard, they more than doubled them in yards, and they played more than double the number of third/fourth stringers. Next week, it's on. The winner gets to be little brother for the next year. The loser has to be the baby brother...Utes get to hold onto big brother for a while since they don't play Utah State until 2015 and BYU until 2016. This year they did what big brothers are supposed to do: they just play their game and wait for little bro to screw up and capitalize. Of course, both little brothers likely will have dates for the prom, while Utah might be sitting at home cashing a big fat check, watching them play in late December while they cash a much smaller check...
Friday, September 27, 2013
MTSU-BYU First Half Reaction
I said a couple of times in this space that MTSU would give BYU a rougher first half than most fans would expect. BYU came out and wanted to be the aggressor. They definitely won the physicality battle, but in doing so were totally careless with the football and had several penalties.
The WRs don't seem to know what to do after they catch the ball. They look like a deer in the headlights. I guess that's because they aren't used to having the ball thrown so consistently catchable, then catching it, and having space to run. I hope they figure it out. Falslev looks like the only guy who knows what YAC is...
It's time to find out how deep the RBs are. I also think we'll have an opportunity to see some 3rd stringers on the defense (except in the secondary b/c Bronco NEVER plays backup DBs). I'll stand by my pre-game prediction of 44-13. That means second half needs to be BYU 21, MTSU 3. I could see that happening...
The WRs don't seem to know what to do after they catch the ball. They look like a deer in the headlights. I guess that's because they aren't used to having the ball thrown so consistently catchable, then catching it, and having space to run. I hope they figure it out. Falslev looks like the only guy who knows what YAC is...
It's time to find out how deep the RBs are. I also think we'll have an opportunity to see some 3rd stringers on the defense (except in the secondary b/c Bronco NEVER plays backup DBs). I'll stand by my pre-game prediction of 44-13. That means second half needs to be BYU 21, MTSU 3. I could see that happening...
MTSU-BYU Prediction (Sorry, it's late)
I literally worked all week up to, and including the first drive of the game tonight. My model has BYU by 10. I think we either show up and dominate or play sluggish and have to eke one out. I could see a little hangover from the Utah game. But if BYU comes out wanting to show some fools what's up, they should roll...this is actually up from the preseason poll, which had BYU by 8. Go figure BYU starts 1-2 and MTSU starts 3-1 and the prediction becomes a bigger blowout...
BYU 44, MTSU 13
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they show up. Plus, a little more zone D tonight should help out the Cougars weak sauce receiving corps...even without Hoffman. Seriously though, take Hoffman off BYU and the Cougars have the worst receivers of any team that feels that they belong in the upper third of college football...Utah proves that every year with tight man coverage that no one can break.
BYU 44, MTSU 13
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they show up. Plus, a little more zone D tonight should help out the Cougars weak sauce receiving corps...even without Hoffman. Seriously though, take Hoffman off BYU and the Cougars have the worst receivers of any team that feels that they belong in the upper third of college football...Utah proves that every year with tight man coverage that no one can break.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Utah-BYU Week Post #4, Reaction/Rant
I pretty well had the game laid out in my prediction, and nearly even got the final score right. It was a pretty ugly game for both sides. Utah looked mediocre. BYU looked mediocre-r. And yet, it's still so frustrating to see. I knew exactly how the game would play out, down to the 75-yard pass by Utah at the end of the first half (called it just before the play), to the missed opportunity after the Falslev punt return, to the "holding" penalty that called back a touchdown, to the lack of interference calls on Utah in spite of much contact throughout the game. [Honestly, how could there have been ZERO interference or ZERO holding calls and ONE post-play penalty on them? There were plenty of opportunities to call any of those penalties, and they called ONE.]
Going into the game, I expect pretty much all of the these things. And then, when they all happen, it still drives me batty. And then Ute fans get so insufferable. If you were REALLY that much better than BYU as they claim, then why can't they put the Cougars away and why do the stats nearly always skew towards BYU in every regard but the final score?
Like I said, good riddance to a bad game that brings out even worse in people. Neither team gets much of anything out of the game. Utah gets a win and a slew of injuries. BYU loses the game, and with it, more and more of their "loyal, strong, and true" fan base. Utah should add a cupcake to get the win without the injuries. BYU should schedule a different (but still decidedly average) team that they can actually have the mental fortitude to beat.
Seriously, BYU had nothing to lose. They wanted the game. They've been talking about the game all offseason. They had a chance to basically ensure that Utah misses a bowl game again, probably ultimately leading to a coaching change there before the 2016 game (even with that, if Kyle misses bowl games 2 of the next 3 seasons, there may be one anyway). And they score 13 points? Van Noy must get tired of having to bail the offense out EVERY SINGLE game! He can't do it every game, guys. Taysom completes less than 40% of his passes again? Perhaps part of that is not throwing a single pass to Cody Hoffman in the red zone until the 4th quarter! The other part is definitely too many deep bombs, though I get that was part of the strategy against Utah, but BYU just does not have the WRs to do that against man defense.
Maybe the 2 years off will be good. BYU can cycle through the players exhibiting the mental lapses that have been killing them. BYU will be amped for that game up in Salt Lake as the young guys are told for 3 years that beating Utah is now a top priority for a change. Utah will once again be arrogant as hell about eking out 4 wins in a row, but probably will not have much else to look forward to as they miss bowl games in 3 out of 4 seasons heading into 2016. If that happens, I say play the 3 scheduled games and bag it. When Utah didn't "need" BYU, they bailed, when their fans "need" us again to try to feel good about something, I say Holmoe should tell them where they can shove it!
Going into the game, I expect pretty much all of the these things. And then, when they all happen, it still drives me batty. And then Ute fans get so insufferable. If you were REALLY that much better than BYU as they claim, then why can't they put the Cougars away and why do the stats nearly always skew towards BYU in every regard but the final score?
Like I said, good riddance to a bad game that brings out even worse in people. Neither team gets much of anything out of the game. Utah gets a win and a slew of injuries. BYU loses the game, and with it, more and more of their "loyal, strong, and true" fan base. Utah should add a cupcake to get the win without the injuries. BYU should schedule a different (but still decidedly average) team that they can actually have the mental fortitude to beat.
Seriously, BYU had nothing to lose. They wanted the game. They've been talking about the game all offseason. They had a chance to basically ensure that Utah misses a bowl game again, probably ultimately leading to a coaching change there before the 2016 game (even with that, if Kyle misses bowl games 2 of the next 3 seasons, there may be one anyway). And they score 13 points? Van Noy must get tired of having to bail the offense out EVERY SINGLE game! He can't do it every game, guys. Taysom completes less than 40% of his passes again? Perhaps part of that is not throwing a single pass to Cody Hoffman in the red zone until the 4th quarter! The other part is definitely too many deep bombs, though I get that was part of the strategy against Utah, but BYU just does not have the WRs to do that against man defense.
Maybe the 2 years off will be good. BYU can cycle through the players exhibiting the mental lapses that have been killing them. BYU will be amped for that game up in Salt Lake as the young guys are told for 3 years that beating Utah is now a top priority for a change. Utah will once again be arrogant as hell about eking out 4 wins in a row, but probably will not have much else to look forward to as they miss bowl games in 3 out of 4 seasons heading into 2016. If that happens, I say play the 3 scheduled games and bag it. When Utah didn't "need" BYU, they bailed, when their fans "need" us again to try to feel good about something, I say Holmoe should tell them where they can shove it!
Friday, September 20, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #3: Prediction
Coming into the season, I was confident that BYU could handle the Utes this year. Really, that was the first time since...LaVell that I felt that way (actually, the Max Hall-Andrew George year I was confident, but that was an inaccurate assumption). However, that dynamic has changed a little bit. Here is why I was confident about BYU and why I'm not now.
1. BYU's Passing Game
I suspected that Taysom combined with Cody Hoffman and some experienced WRs would excel in the passing game. I believed Anae's offense would be similar to what BYU fans got used to from 2006-2010 which was predictable but efficient, and for the most part solid in the passing game. However, so far in 2013, Anae's offense has been neither predictable nor efficient. The passing game has been as bad as I have ever seen out of a BYU team, or really any non-service academy. I was confident that Taysom Hill's arm strength was going to be a large improvement over Riley Nelson's "grit." I thought we'd see better play out of TEs and that Ridley, Falslev, Apo, and the rest of the clan would be better if for no other reason than that they were more experienced. However, they are dropping passes, not getting open, and just generally not making any plays after they catch the ball. It hasn't materialized. But, man, they sure do block well...
2. Utah's Offensive Woes
With Dennis Erickson taking over, Utah had to be better on offense. No offense to BJ but he's no offensive coordinator. However, even with a new OC, it was still a young QB playing with a lot of JC transfers and a heap of underclassmen as backups (to the more experienced starters). Utah State's D is down this year, no question, but Utah still dropped 30 on them. Utah dropped 48 on Oregon State at home last weekend, which is impressive, unless you consider the fact that Eastern Washington dropped 49 on the Beavers AT Oregon State. Regardless of competition, last year's Utah team wouldn't be averaging 40 points/game against the same 3 teams and this team is at almost 50.
3. It Finally Matters
BYU players finally acknowledged in the offseason that the rivalry matters. For as long as I can remember, Utah has always cared more about this game. They have always been the aggressor in the pre-game hype and on the field too. They have always talked about it, year-round. BYU never talked about Utah until Utah week and even then they were somewhat dismissive. In fact, the script has flipped entirely this year. Kyle Whittingham sounds like typical rivalry week Bronco this week and the Cougars sound like typical rivalry week Ute players. In the offseason, players were looking forward to this game more than Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Boise State. I don't think this is necessarily a new trend (unless Utah wins again this year) as ksl.com writer Patrick Kinahan does, but this year, for a change, BYU finally seems to have the passion the Utah players have had for this game for decades now. It only matters more because of the 0-3 factor, in my opinion. If BYU wins, in 2016, the Utes will be right back to caring more, particularly if they miss a bowl game or two in the interim.
Of course, then a video surfaces on the internet of Utah players mocking Mormons...which is 60% of the Ute fan base...so maybe it doesn't matter more to BYU than Utah this year, but it definitely matters more to BYU this year than it has to BYU in other years.
Prelude to a Prediction
So, the three things that I thought would give BYU a comfortable win for a change are not really there in the same magnitude as I originally thought. The one thing that hasn't changed at all is BYU's propensity to make mistakes against Utah and Utah's mental toughness to avoid making the big mistakes against BYU. Last year, BYU seemed to be a slightly better team but had three AWFUL plays that essentially gave 21 points to the Utes, without them even really having to do much. Two years ago, Utah had a better team, but not that much better and 5 UNFORCED turnovers later, Utah is handed 35 points. Three years ago, BYU had a slightly better team and an officiating mistake, compounded by a handful of small 4th quarter errors, and BYU blows a lead they held the entire contest and eventually has a last-second field goal blocked. I could go back and do this for every game under Bronco and Kyle. The teams were pretty even almost every year and the team that made fewer mistakes was almost always Utah and that was the difference in the game.
So how is this year going to be different? How will BYU not commit the same atrocities of prior years? Well, for one, Taysom Hill has shown he is better at handling those inevitable errant snaps than Nelson and Heaps. Realistically, there is no evidence for a #2. There is no reason to think that Taysom Hill and his 33% completion percentage is going to avoid a Max Hall-esque 5 turnover 3rd/4th quarter meltdown. There is no reason to think that BYU's return teams can avoid fumbling the ball on all the punts/kickoffs they receive. There is no reason to believe that BYU is going to sustain drives and flip field position in critical moments as it failed to do in both 2012 and 2010. There is no reason to think that this BYU defense will do a better job at causing Utah turnovers than it has in the past. If anything, BYU's D seems less capable of forcing turnovers through 2 games this season than the teams that haven't forced much of anything against Utah in previous years.
Utah's D has been criticized this season by a lot of people. But their run D hasn't been the reason for the criticism. Unless Taysom can complete some passes and BYU's receivers can man up and make Utah's DBs pay for tight press-man coverage, I don't see BYU being able to exploit the weaknesses in the Utah defense. The front 7 is not the weakness, especially when the Utes don't really have to respect the passing game of BYU (at least not until the Cougars prove otherwise). They can commit 8 guys to the box. It will force BYU to do one of two things: open up the passing game (and be successful at it) or break tackles in the running game (b/c there wouldn't be any help if a LB or SS miss the tackle).
Prediction
The first possession will tell the story. BYU is going to start with the ball. If Utah wins the toss they will defer to get the ball in the 2nd half (like a normal team), if BYU wins it, they will take the ball to "send a message" (or whatever reason Bronco has for constantly starting with the ball even when he wins the coin toss). If BYU goes 3 and out then it's potentially lights out. Based on how these games have gone in the past, BYU cannot afford a slow start. Utah has owned the 3rd quarter the past two seasons (17-0 and 16-0). The last two times in Provo, Utah has owned the second half (40-0 and 14-7). If BYU starts 3 and out, Utah will have good field position, and they can explode for big plays both running and throwing the ball. If it doesn't happen the first possession, it will happen the second, or perhaps maybe the BYU D holds out until the 3rd possession before giving up the big play. But it will happen, and will happen early. BYU can't afford to not be ahead when it does.
With that said, I think BYU goes 3 and out. Utah takes the early lead. The defense rallies around Kyle Van Noy and FINALLY forces some Utah turnovers. Cougars take back the 3rd Q and send the Utes packing early in the 4th as they build up a commanding 3-score lead. Jamaal "only" rushes for 100, Taysom finally passes for 200, KVN scores at least once, and BYU wins 31-17.
Yes, that was a fun scenario to think about. Realistically, I think turnovers, big plays for Utah's O, and too many "three and outs" doom BYU to a 4th consecutive loss. My preseason confidence entirely eroded in a 19-16 Virginia win and weren't restored just b/c BYU ran on an unmotivated and untested Texas D. Utah's run D will clamp down on BYU, as it always has, I'd be shocked if the Cougars got 200 yards rushing. I think Utah probably looks awful doing it, but BYU looks awful-er, and a win is a win is a win (just ask Utah State after their game with Utah). Utah 24, BYU 17. Rest in peace, rivalry! I will not miss you one iota the next two seasons.
1. BYU's Passing Game
I suspected that Taysom combined with Cody Hoffman and some experienced WRs would excel in the passing game. I believed Anae's offense would be similar to what BYU fans got used to from 2006-2010 which was predictable but efficient, and for the most part solid in the passing game. However, so far in 2013, Anae's offense has been neither predictable nor efficient. The passing game has been as bad as I have ever seen out of a BYU team, or really any non-service academy. I was confident that Taysom Hill's arm strength was going to be a large improvement over Riley Nelson's "grit." I thought we'd see better play out of TEs and that Ridley, Falslev, Apo, and the rest of the clan would be better if for no other reason than that they were more experienced. However, they are dropping passes, not getting open, and just generally not making any plays after they catch the ball. It hasn't materialized. But, man, they sure do block well...
2. Utah's Offensive Woes
With Dennis Erickson taking over, Utah had to be better on offense. No offense to BJ but he's no offensive coordinator. However, even with a new OC, it was still a young QB playing with a lot of JC transfers and a heap of underclassmen as backups (to the more experienced starters). Utah State's D is down this year, no question, but Utah still dropped 30 on them. Utah dropped 48 on Oregon State at home last weekend, which is impressive, unless you consider the fact that Eastern Washington dropped 49 on the Beavers AT Oregon State. Regardless of competition, last year's Utah team wouldn't be averaging 40 points/game against the same 3 teams and this team is at almost 50.
3. It Finally Matters
BYU players finally acknowledged in the offseason that the rivalry matters. For as long as I can remember, Utah has always cared more about this game. They have always been the aggressor in the pre-game hype and on the field too. They have always talked about it, year-round. BYU never talked about Utah until Utah week and even then they were somewhat dismissive. In fact, the script has flipped entirely this year. Kyle Whittingham sounds like typical rivalry week Bronco this week and the Cougars sound like typical rivalry week Ute players. In the offseason, players were looking forward to this game more than Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Boise State. I don't think this is necessarily a new trend (unless Utah wins again this year) as ksl.com writer Patrick Kinahan does, but this year, for a change, BYU finally seems to have the passion the Utah players have had for this game for decades now. It only matters more because of the 0-3 factor, in my opinion. If BYU wins, in 2016, the Utes will be right back to caring more, particularly if they miss a bowl game or two in the interim.
Of course, then a video surfaces on the internet of Utah players mocking Mormons...which is 60% of the Ute fan base...so maybe it doesn't matter more to BYU than Utah this year, but it definitely matters more to BYU this year than it has to BYU in other years.
Prelude to a Prediction
So, the three things that I thought would give BYU a comfortable win for a change are not really there in the same magnitude as I originally thought. The one thing that hasn't changed at all is BYU's propensity to make mistakes against Utah and Utah's mental toughness to avoid making the big mistakes against BYU. Last year, BYU seemed to be a slightly better team but had three AWFUL plays that essentially gave 21 points to the Utes, without them even really having to do much. Two years ago, Utah had a better team, but not that much better and 5 UNFORCED turnovers later, Utah is handed 35 points. Three years ago, BYU had a slightly better team and an officiating mistake, compounded by a handful of small 4th quarter errors, and BYU blows a lead they held the entire contest and eventually has a last-second field goal blocked. I could go back and do this for every game under Bronco and Kyle. The teams were pretty even almost every year and the team that made fewer mistakes was almost always Utah and that was the difference in the game.
So how is this year going to be different? How will BYU not commit the same atrocities of prior years? Well, for one, Taysom Hill has shown he is better at handling those inevitable errant snaps than Nelson and Heaps. Realistically, there is no evidence for a #2. There is no reason to think that Taysom Hill and his 33% completion percentage is going to avoid a Max Hall-esque 5 turnover 3rd/4th quarter meltdown. There is no reason to think that BYU's return teams can avoid fumbling the ball on all the punts/kickoffs they receive. There is no reason to believe that BYU is going to sustain drives and flip field position in critical moments as it failed to do in both 2012 and 2010. There is no reason to think that this BYU defense will do a better job at causing Utah turnovers than it has in the past. If anything, BYU's D seems less capable of forcing turnovers through 2 games this season than the teams that haven't forced much of anything against Utah in previous years.
Utah's D has been criticized this season by a lot of people. But their run D hasn't been the reason for the criticism. Unless Taysom can complete some passes and BYU's receivers can man up and make Utah's DBs pay for tight press-man coverage, I don't see BYU being able to exploit the weaknesses in the Utah defense. The front 7 is not the weakness, especially when the Utes don't really have to respect the passing game of BYU (at least not until the Cougars prove otherwise). They can commit 8 guys to the box. It will force BYU to do one of two things: open up the passing game (and be successful at it) or break tackles in the running game (b/c there wouldn't be any help if a LB or SS miss the tackle).
Prediction
The first possession will tell the story. BYU is going to start with the ball. If Utah wins the toss they will defer to get the ball in the 2nd half (like a normal team), if BYU wins it, they will take the ball to "send a message" (or whatever reason Bronco has for constantly starting with the ball even when he wins the coin toss). If BYU goes 3 and out then it's potentially lights out. Based on how these games have gone in the past, BYU cannot afford a slow start. Utah has owned the 3rd quarter the past two seasons (17-0 and 16-0). The last two times in Provo, Utah has owned the second half (40-0 and 14-7). If BYU starts 3 and out, Utah will have good field position, and they can explode for big plays both running and throwing the ball. If it doesn't happen the first possession, it will happen the second, or perhaps maybe the BYU D holds out until the 3rd possession before giving up the big play. But it will happen, and will happen early. BYU can't afford to not be ahead when it does.
With that said, I think BYU goes 3 and out. Utah takes the early lead. The defense rallies around Kyle Van Noy and FINALLY forces some Utah turnovers. Cougars take back the 3rd Q and send the Utes packing early in the 4th as they build up a commanding 3-score lead. Jamaal "only" rushes for 100, Taysom finally passes for 200, KVN scores at least once, and BYU wins 31-17.
Yes, that was a fun scenario to think about. Realistically, I think turnovers, big plays for Utah's O, and too many "three and outs" doom BYU to a 4th consecutive loss. My preseason confidence entirely eroded in a 19-16 Virginia win and weren't restored just b/c BYU ran on an unmotivated and untested Texas D. Utah's run D will clamp down on BYU, as it always has, I'd be shocked if the Cougars got 200 yards rushing. I think Utah probably looks awful doing it, but BYU looks awful-er, and a win is a win is a win (just ask Utah State after their game with Utah). Utah 24, BYU 17. Rest in peace, rivalry! I will not miss you one iota the next two seasons.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #2
A lot of BYU fans I know were convinced that Taysom Hill would solve all woes BYU had over the past few seasons with Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson. Many said BCS. Some even thought it was conceivable to go 12-0 and have a legitimate shot at a national title. I tried to taper everyone's expectations, I learned long ago that everyone's undefeated in fall camp, and a lot of QBs/WRs look good in August against the BYU secondary. Taysom was unproven and inexperienced (a handful of games, mostly in a reserve role, doesn't make one experienced). He would undoubtedly struggle a bit. Now to the meat...
Utah's Passing D
Quite honestly, Utah has had difficulties defending the pass this season. However, let's be honest about what they have seen so far. Chuckie Keeton is, by all accounts, a fantastic collegiate QB. He is both mobile and accurate. Watching him in his first season, he looked very similar to Colin Kaepernick, who dismantled pretty good BYU and Boise State defenses. I saw a lot of similarities with mobility, arm strength, and decisiveness. Keeton also had a lot of options to throw to as the Aggies utilize all three layers (RBs, TEs, and WRs) of the passing game as good as anyone west of the Mississippi. Throw out Weber State, that was a glorified scrimmage. Next up, Utah had to contend with Sean Mannion, an experienced strong-armed QB going on his 3rd year playing under a smart coach, throwing to an NFL-caliber WR in Brandin Cooks.
In Utah's base coverage (man-to-man), those are not good matchups for them. If you ask me, it's one of the big reasons they have struggled in the Pac 12 defensively. They were one of two teams in the MWC that had the talent at DB to play man coverage almost exclusively in that conference. But they were only talented enough to do that consistently against MWC QBs, WRs, and OLs. They can't get the kind of pressure they are used to, especially rushing just 4 or 5 guys, against the better Pac 12 OLs and the Utah DBs are on islands longer than they can handle against the better Pac 12 QBs and WRs. Utah isn't struggling in pass defense right now b/c they are awful; they are struggling b/c they weren't as good as their competition. So let's look at what this week's competition will bring.
BYU's Passing O
Taysom Hill has been asked to do a lot of things for a young signal-caller in his first year as a starter. As much as local BYU-goggled media touted the quality of the WR group for the Cougars, outsiders who look at it rationally have a tough time believing that, outside of Cody Hoffman, there are any prime-time players in the group. Skyler Ridley had one good game last season and disappeared the rest of the season. Falslev will get his but won't demand extra attention from opposing secondaries. Mitch Mathews may be tall, athletic, with a huge vertical, but so was Peter Warrick (Florida State guy who never really lived up to the hype in college and completely flopped in the NFL). "Testing" well doesn't mean playing well. The fact is he had 2 catches last season for a reason. He likewise only has 2 so far this season for a reason. These guys are mostly zone-busters that can pick apart open spaces but can't shake a guy locked in on them in man coverage.
In addition, Robert Anae has placed Taysom Hill in some pretty difficult positions. I didn't have time to go back and re-watch the whole game, but in the first quarter, I found some pretty telling statistics on Taysom Hill. On short passes (target less than 8 yards down the field), he was 3-4 for 26 yards. Admittedly, this included a "screen" where the pass was technically a lateral and running play but Taysom's confidence didn't know that at the time. On medium passes (target is between 8-20 yards down the field), he was 1-6 for 16 yards. On deep passes (target more than 20 yards down the field), he was 0-2. He had twice as many non-short throws as short throws, but completed a third as many.
Additionally, Taysom is 1-4 throwing to the left side of the field for 11 yards. 0-2 across the middle. 3-7 to the right side for 31 yards. He has essentially identical attempts to left/middle as he does to right and triple the completions/yardage.
Advantage: Utah (and it might get ugly)
If Taysom is 1-8 on non-short throws and 1-6 on throws NOT to the right, I'm loading the box and playing press-man coverage on the outside to take away the short routes, with a safety over top on the right side. I would dare Taysom Hill to beat me throwing the ball medium/long and/or left. I would force the BYU WRs to show they are worth any of the preseason accolades Utah media threw their way. I would do that the entire first half without remorse. Other than two long passes to Cody Hoffman against Texas, BYU had one completion over 15 yards (a 16-yard completion in the 1st Q). If they beat me, congratulations. If I were Coach Whit or Sitake, I'd feel comfortable with my guys in those situations.
If Anae doesn't help Hill out (and he's had two weeks to figure this out), the edge here goes to what is statistically a weak Utah pass D (though, again, it is probably better than it appears on paper and has just been burned by good QB/WR play). They probably won't see much of that "good QB/WR play" on Saturday night...maybe BYU's best chance here is to just not turn the ball over in the passing game and beat Utah with a steady diet of running and defense??
Utah's Passing D
Quite honestly, Utah has had difficulties defending the pass this season. However, let's be honest about what they have seen so far. Chuckie Keeton is, by all accounts, a fantastic collegiate QB. He is both mobile and accurate. Watching him in his first season, he looked very similar to Colin Kaepernick, who dismantled pretty good BYU and Boise State defenses. I saw a lot of similarities with mobility, arm strength, and decisiveness. Keeton also had a lot of options to throw to as the Aggies utilize all three layers (RBs, TEs, and WRs) of the passing game as good as anyone west of the Mississippi. Throw out Weber State, that was a glorified scrimmage. Next up, Utah had to contend with Sean Mannion, an experienced strong-armed QB going on his 3rd year playing under a smart coach, throwing to an NFL-caliber WR in Brandin Cooks.
In Utah's base coverage (man-to-man), those are not good matchups for them. If you ask me, it's one of the big reasons they have struggled in the Pac 12 defensively. They were one of two teams in the MWC that had the talent at DB to play man coverage almost exclusively in that conference. But they were only talented enough to do that consistently against MWC QBs, WRs, and OLs. They can't get the kind of pressure they are used to, especially rushing just 4 or 5 guys, against the better Pac 12 OLs and the Utah DBs are on islands longer than they can handle against the better Pac 12 QBs and WRs. Utah isn't struggling in pass defense right now b/c they are awful; they are struggling b/c they weren't as good as their competition. So let's look at what this week's competition will bring.
BYU's Passing O
Taysom Hill has been asked to do a lot of things for a young signal-caller in his first year as a starter. As much as local BYU-goggled media touted the quality of the WR group for the Cougars, outsiders who look at it rationally have a tough time believing that, outside of Cody Hoffman, there are any prime-time players in the group. Skyler Ridley had one good game last season and disappeared the rest of the season. Falslev will get his but won't demand extra attention from opposing secondaries. Mitch Mathews may be tall, athletic, with a huge vertical, but so was Peter Warrick (Florida State guy who never really lived up to the hype in college and completely flopped in the NFL). "Testing" well doesn't mean playing well. The fact is he had 2 catches last season for a reason. He likewise only has 2 so far this season for a reason. These guys are mostly zone-busters that can pick apart open spaces but can't shake a guy locked in on them in man coverage.
In addition, Robert Anae has placed Taysom Hill in some pretty difficult positions. I didn't have time to go back and re-watch the whole game, but in the first quarter, I found some pretty telling statistics on Taysom Hill. On short passes (target less than 8 yards down the field), he was 3-4 for 26 yards. Admittedly, this included a "screen" where the pass was technically a lateral and running play but Taysom's confidence didn't know that at the time. On medium passes (target is between 8-20 yards down the field), he was 1-6 for 16 yards. On deep passes (target more than 20 yards down the field), he was 0-2. He had twice as many non-short throws as short throws, but completed a third as many.
Additionally, Taysom is 1-4 throwing to the left side of the field for 11 yards. 0-2 across the middle. 3-7 to the right side for 31 yards. He has essentially identical attempts to left/middle as he does to right and triple the completions/yardage.
Advantage: Utah (and it might get ugly)
If Taysom is 1-8 on non-short throws and 1-6 on throws NOT to the right, I'm loading the box and playing press-man coverage on the outside to take away the short routes, with a safety over top on the right side. I would dare Taysom Hill to beat me throwing the ball medium/long and/or left. I would force the BYU WRs to show they are worth any of the preseason accolades Utah media threw their way. I would do that the entire first half without remorse. Other than two long passes to Cody Hoffman against Texas, BYU had one completion over 15 yards (a 16-yard completion in the 1st Q). If they beat me, congratulations. If I were Coach Whit or Sitake, I'd feel comfortable with my guys in those situations.
If Anae doesn't help Hill out (and he's had two weeks to figure this out), the edge here goes to what is statistically a weak Utah pass D (though, again, it is probably better than it appears on paper and has just been burned by good QB/WR play). They probably won't see much of that "good QB/WR play" on Saturday night...maybe BYU's best chance here is to just not turn the ball over in the passing game and beat Utah with a steady diet of running and defense??
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #1
This is the last one of these weeks for a few years. I will start by saying I like the two-year break between these next two games. I have stated many times that I would have had no problem if they never played again. I think both teams have outgrown each other and, after the arrival of Urban Meyer, the fan bases just got stupid. I think the only reason one team SHOULD feel the need to play the other is if they become irrelevant and playing the rival would give their fan bases one thing to get excited about...honestly, if I had never lived in Utah, I wouldn't even think about Utah outside of game week. Having lived in Utah...at least 25% of their "fans" are really just anti-BYU folks and I hope "their" team loses every game. 25% are actually Utah fans AND hate BYU. For the other 50%, thanks for being true to yourselves and I hope your team wins every game except for against BYU...keep in mind I pulled these numbers out of thin air, but I've found that to be true in my experience: 1/4, 1/4, 2/4...
BYU Rushing D
BYU is coming in to this game having just lost starting middle linebacker Spencer Hadley this week. The defense has been a strongpoint thus far for BYU, particularly the front 7. However, the loss of a 3-year contributor, vocal and emotional leader, and play-maker cannot be understated, particularly immediately preceding the rivalry game. I think his move to the inside in the middle of fall camp was a bit of a statement about lack of trust in the MLB position as much as it was a vote of confidence in giving more reps to Alani Fua. Who knows, perhaps this binds the team closer and they overcome with a brilliant performance. Although, if they lose another close contest to the Utes, perhaps teammates will feel he was somewhat responsible and not accept him upon his return from suspension as warmly...the funny thing is, he could have been suspended for drinking coffee or having his mustache grow too far below his lips...
Utah Rushing O
Utah is coming in after a hard-fought OT home loss to Oregon State. It was one in which their offense showed it is capable of putting up yards and points. Travis Wilson did his best Taysom Hill impression with his legs (and had more of a Max Hall type effort through the air, i.e. a lot of players involved, decently high completion % and yardage numbers, but with 3 INTs). They also showed the ability to drive the ball, with 4 possessions ending in points that took over 2:30 minutes off the clock, with 2 of those possessions lasting 11 plays. They showed that they are capable of driving the ball and not just needing big plays to score, which hadn't been the case prior to the Oregon State game.
Which is Better?
Right now, this seems to be a strength on strength matchup: Utah is averaging nearly 250 yards/game on the ground (28th in the NCAA), BYU is giving up 120.5 yards/game (35th). Will the loss of Hadley be enough to tip the scales into Utah's favor? Will BYU's lack of depth on the defensive line finally hurt them this week? Or will Wilson be contained by a front 7 who knows the biggest risk Utah poses to them is Wilson rushing for 10 yards/carry? Will the multiple JC transfers involved in Utah's run game falter in the face of some real get-hit-in-the-mouth type of adversity?
I do not have the answers to these questions...I suspect there is some give-and-take here. The loss of Hadley may prove an advantage for Utah. Perhaps conditioning or injury prevent BYU from keeping to their 6-man DL rotation, which may prove costly. BYU can probably keep Wilson wrapped up which will take some pressure off of their secondary. Utah's mostly new/revamped OL hasn't been challenged like they will be on Saturday. James Poole hasn't been hit like he will be (repeatedly) on Saturday night. Needless to say, if Utah gets 250 rushing yards, one would have to think they win. If BYU can hold Utah to 120 yards (and Wilson to 5/carry), it's certainly conceivable that it means a BYU win.
Ultimately, I think the end-result is much closer to BYU's average than Utah's. Utah State, Weber State, and Oregon State aren't exactly defensive juggernauts. Or, at least, Virginia and Texas posed greater challenges to BYU's rush D than USU, WSU, and OSU did to Utah's rush O. I'd put the O/U at about 150 rushing yards for Utah. I'd probably still take the under at that. Comments from the readers' gallery?
BYU Rushing D
BYU is coming in to this game having just lost starting middle linebacker Spencer Hadley this week. The defense has been a strongpoint thus far for BYU, particularly the front 7. However, the loss of a 3-year contributor, vocal and emotional leader, and play-maker cannot be understated, particularly immediately preceding the rivalry game. I think his move to the inside in the middle of fall camp was a bit of a statement about lack of trust in the MLB position as much as it was a vote of confidence in giving more reps to Alani Fua. Who knows, perhaps this binds the team closer and they overcome with a brilliant performance. Although, if they lose another close contest to the Utes, perhaps teammates will feel he was somewhat responsible and not accept him upon his return from suspension as warmly...the funny thing is, he could have been suspended for drinking coffee or having his mustache grow too far below his lips...
Utah Rushing O
Utah is coming in after a hard-fought OT home loss to Oregon State. It was one in which their offense showed it is capable of putting up yards and points. Travis Wilson did his best Taysom Hill impression with his legs (and had more of a Max Hall type effort through the air, i.e. a lot of players involved, decently high completion % and yardage numbers, but with 3 INTs). They also showed the ability to drive the ball, with 4 possessions ending in points that took over 2:30 minutes off the clock, with 2 of those possessions lasting 11 plays. They showed that they are capable of driving the ball and not just needing big plays to score, which hadn't been the case prior to the Oregon State game.
Which is Better?
Right now, this seems to be a strength on strength matchup: Utah is averaging nearly 250 yards/game on the ground (28th in the NCAA), BYU is giving up 120.5 yards/game (35th). Will the loss of Hadley be enough to tip the scales into Utah's favor? Will BYU's lack of depth on the defensive line finally hurt them this week? Or will Wilson be contained by a front 7 who knows the biggest risk Utah poses to them is Wilson rushing for 10 yards/carry? Will the multiple JC transfers involved in Utah's run game falter in the face of some real get-hit-in-the-mouth type of adversity?
I do not have the answers to these questions...I suspect there is some give-and-take here. The loss of Hadley may prove an advantage for Utah. Perhaps conditioning or injury prevent BYU from keeping to their 6-man DL rotation, which may prove costly. BYU can probably keep Wilson wrapped up which will take some pressure off of their secondary. Utah's mostly new/revamped OL hasn't been challenged like they will be on Saturday. James Poole hasn't been hit like he will be (repeatedly) on Saturday night. Needless to say, if Utah gets 250 rushing yards, one would have to think they win. If BYU can hold Utah to 120 yards (and Wilson to 5/carry), it's certainly conceivable that it means a BYU win.
Ultimately, I think the end-result is much closer to BYU's average than Utah's. Utah State, Weber State, and Oregon State aren't exactly defensive juggernauts. Or, at least, Virginia and Texas posed greater challenges to BYU's rush D than USU, WSU, and OSU did to Utah's rush O. I'd put the O/U at about 150 rushing yards for Utah. I'd probably still take the under at that. Comments from the readers' gallery?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)