Boise State O vs. BYU D
The Broncos visit and will be a challenge for BYU. They are extremely balanced on offense, with 224 yards/game on the ground and 270 yards/game through the air. Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi has averaged more than 5 yards/carry in 5 games of Boise State's 7 games this season. They have 3 or 4 WRs that are capable of having a good game. The inexperienced QB getting the start tonight is mobile and very accurate in the short passing game. No one has really seen what he does down the field.
In my opinion, the 2013 Boise State Broncos play right into BYU's defensive strengths. BYU can handle dynamic RBs, good WRs, and mobile QBs. They struggle more with the big-play WRs and accurate down-the-field passers. BYU will try to contain the run, particularly the zone-read, which shouldn't be too big of a problem after facing Georgia Tech just a few weeks ago. They will force the Broncos to dink and dunk down the field. Advantage BYU.
BYU O vs. Boise State D
Taysom is playing well, the WRs have stepped up against more zone coverage, and there are a couple of pretty good RBs. The OL has the ability to get manhandled by athletic smaller DL. I think this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Boise State plays a lot of man defense. They have a small, athletic DL. If BYU can break a few big plays, they could loosen up the coverage a bit. However, Boise State will remain aggressive defensively. Particularly, what BYU needs to do is get some of the ball skills Ridley, Mathews, Apo, and Hoffman have shown the past few weeks. Still, Boise State's ability to disrupt the rhythm passing game gives them an opportunity to force Taysom and Jamaal Williams to beat them with their legs for 4 quarters. Advantage Boise State.
Prediction
Now that I've given the edge to both defenses, you'd probably think I'm predicting another low-scoring slugfest. However, in spite of the defenses having the advantage, I expect a lot of big plays in special teams and by the offenses. I don't think we'll see any long, time-consuming drives. I don't think either offense can nickel and dime their way down the field. But I look for a quasi-high-scoring shoot-out with big plays and punts. The stats may look like great offense, but I think we'll see a lot of frustrating poor offense in between the big plays, which I'll put at 3 per quarter.
I like Taysom over an inexperienced Grant Hedrick if it comes down to big plays and lots of points. BYU wins 38-27.
Friday, October 25, 2013
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Random Stats for a Thursday
I spent the past two days looking over every BYU defensive play this season. There are some stats that I found pretty interesting, and I'll share.
Rush Defense
76.5% of all rushing plays against BYU go for 5 yards or less. 92.3% go for 10 yards or less. 25.4% go for no gain or a loss. I have no idea how that compares nationally, but I'd have to think that's pretty good. It makes it difficult to pound it on the ground against BYU. If a full quarter of your rushing plays go nowhere or backwards, one penalty makes it difficult to sustain drives.
Virginia and Middle Tennessee each had only 1 rush over 10 yards. Utah and Houston each had only 2. Utah State had 3. Texas had 4. Georgia Tech managed 8, but it took 53 rushing plays (and only 1 of those rushes exceeded 20 yards).
The BYU run defense has been stout. Again, I don't know how this looks nationally, but if fewer than 3 rushes per game go for more than 10 yards and 14 rushes per game go for no gain or losses, Bronco must be doing something right. Only 1 out of every 70 rushing attempts goes for 20+ yards. Every 13 rushes teams go for 10+. BYU has done a great job keeping things in front of them in the run game for the most part.
Pass Defense
BYU's pass defense hasn't quite had the same success. This is a pretty familiar tale for most teams these days as offenses go crazy. BYU has done a great job in pass defense, with 45.6% of passes resulting in incompletions or interceptions. Of the 143 completions BYU has given up, 35.7% have gone for 5 yards or less (includes 3.5% of completions resulting in loss of yardage). 69.9% of those completions have been 10 yards or less. 11.9% of completions have resulted in 20+ yards, however, with 8 passes going for over 40 yards. Houston had 4 of those, so prior to that, BYU was giving up one 40-yard pass play every 6 quarters.
Keeping it in perspective, however, BYU hasn't played an Oregon, Baylor, or Texas Tech. Houston is similar to those teams, but they aren't those teams. Prior to Houston, my father told me BYU's D was rolling and would shut them down, just as they had every other game this season. I told him this: "the best offense BYU has played this season is Utah, which is not a very good offense. They gave up 4 big plays that game and that was the difference. Houston should double that b/c they are twice the offense Utah was. BYU's offense will have to score for BYU to win." I was wrong, Houston only had 5, but they doubled up Utah in points. I was right that BYU's offense would have to put up a lot of points to win...and they did.
Overall
Teams cannot run on BYU, so they will have to make their living passing. That bodes well for the remainder of BYU's schedule. Boise is the most balanced attack BYU will face, Wisconsin and Notre Dame are run-heavy, and Idaho State and Nevada should not be contests. BYU gives up an average of 3 plays over 20 yards/game, about 0.5 rushing and 2.5 passing. If they can hold their average against those three opponents, they should be able to secure victories in each of those games. If they can't sustain that success, or if any team can also find success on the ground against BYU, then BYU won't win those games.
Rush Defense
76.5% of all rushing plays against BYU go for 5 yards or less. 92.3% go for 10 yards or less. 25.4% go for no gain or a loss. I have no idea how that compares nationally, but I'd have to think that's pretty good. It makes it difficult to pound it on the ground against BYU. If a full quarter of your rushing plays go nowhere or backwards, one penalty makes it difficult to sustain drives.
Virginia and Middle Tennessee each had only 1 rush over 10 yards. Utah and Houston each had only 2. Utah State had 3. Texas had 4. Georgia Tech managed 8, but it took 53 rushing plays (and only 1 of those rushes exceeded 20 yards).
The BYU run defense has been stout. Again, I don't know how this looks nationally, but if fewer than 3 rushes per game go for more than 10 yards and 14 rushes per game go for no gain or losses, Bronco must be doing something right. Only 1 out of every 70 rushing attempts goes for 20+ yards. Every 13 rushes teams go for 10+. BYU has done a great job keeping things in front of them in the run game for the most part.
Pass Defense
BYU's pass defense hasn't quite had the same success. This is a pretty familiar tale for most teams these days as offenses go crazy. BYU has done a great job in pass defense, with 45.6% of passes resulting in incompletions or interceptions. Of the 143 completions BYU has given up, 35.7% have gone for 5 yards or less (includes 3.5% of completions resulting in loss of yardage). 69.9% of those completions have been 10 yards or less. 11.9% of completions have resulted in 20+ yards, however, with 8 passes going for over 40 yards. Houston had 4 of those, so prior to that, BYU was giving up one 40-yard pass play every 6 quarters.
Keeping it in perspective, however, BYU hasn't played an Oregon, Baylor, or Texas Tech. Houston is similar to those teams, but they aren't those teams. Prior to Houston, my father told me BYU's D was rolling and would shut them down, just as they had every other game this season. I told him this: "the best offense BYU has played this season is Utah, which is not a very good offense. They gave up 4 big plays that game and that was the difference. Houston should double that b/c they are twice the offense Utah was. BYU's offense will have to score for BYU to win." I was wrong, Houston only had 5, but they doubled up Utah in points. I was right that BYU's offense would have to put up a lot of points to win...and they did.
Overall
Teams cannot run on BYU, so they will have to make their living passing. That bodes well for the remainder of BYU's schedule. Boise is the most balanced attack BYU will face, Wisconsin and Notre Dame are run-heavy, and Idaho State and Nevada should not be contests. BYU gives up an average of 3 plays over 20 yards/game, about 0.5 rushing and 2.5 passing. If they can hold their average against those three opponents, they should be able to secure victories in each of those games. If they can't sustain that success, or if any team can also find success on the ground against BYU, then BYU won't win those games.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Sacks and Red Zone
The two areas that BYU fans seem the most concerned about (besides the secondary) are how many sacks they give up and how they perform in the red zone. So, here are some thoughts.
SACKS
Taysom Hill has been sacked 22 times this season. He has thrown 235 passes. I realize there are times that he scrambles on called pass plays for positive yardage but I'd have to go revisit every play of every game to account for those. So, leaving that out, statistically speaking, this means he gets sacked roughly every 11.8 passing plays. In the 1980's or 1990's, or even the 2000's, that would actually be about average. However, in today's high-octane spread offense where the ball comes out quickly, this is well below average (national average is 17.7). In fact, last season, where it seemed Riley Nelson was constantly on the ground, it was every 17.6 passes that a BYU QB was sacked.
In 2013, there are only 21 teams that get sacked more frequently. This is not the kind of company Garrett Tujague and Robert Anae would want to be associated with: Navy (3-3), Idaho (1-6), Florida International (1-5), Pittsburgh (4-2), Connecticut (0-6), New Mexico (2-5), Miami OH (0-7), Rutgers (4-2), Iowa State (1-5), Minnesota (5-2), Kansas (2-4), Army (3-5), Boston College (3-3), Northwestern (4-3), Florida (4-3), South Florida (2-4), Tulane (5-2), Eastern Michigan (1-6), Kentucky (1-5), Hawaii (0-6), and Central Michigan (3-5). These teams combine for a 49-89 record, and none of them appear in this week's rankings (though Florida and Northwestern have at one point this season), and none of these offenses ranks in the top 50 for total or scoring offense except for Rutgers and New Mexico, but I'll go ahead and say that may have something to do with competition level and not quality of offense.
Now, I don't blame the shuffling on the OL like many do. If anything, I actually think that helps keep BYU ahead of those other 21 teams. Taysom Hill is not being sacked b/c of missed assignments. Mobile QBs are sometimes difficult to block for. Taysom's pocket presence isn't amazing in terms of when to step up, when to step back, and when to move left or right. Realistically though, a lot of the sacks are guys just plain getting beat or guys who are beat (as in tired). When BYU goes as fast and as hard as they do, the DL is still rotating more than the OL. Plus, BYU does not have a lot of great offensive linemen to begin with (but more on that in the "Red Zone" section). Shuffling isn't the problem, it's just not a great OL.
With that said, take out the 8 sacks in the Houston game, and all of a sudden, it's every 14.8 pass plays Hill gets sacked. That adds another 15 teams that BYU would be better than.
RED ZONE
The first question to answer is: does BYU really struggle in the red zone or is it just fans having too high of expectations? BYU has scored on 82.4% of all red zone possessions, good to tie for 72nd in the country, which is slightly below average (though, shockingly, Taysom/BYU are ranked higher than Johnny Football's aTm and Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks). However, looking strictly at TD's, BYU gets touchdowns on only 50% of its red zone trips, putting them in a tie for 100th in the country, or the bottom quintile (and significantly worse than Johnny and Marcus, at 69% and 72%, respectively). So, yes, BYU is struggling in the red zone. The 51st highest scoring offense in the country is the 23rd worst red zone scoring offense. That may explain why the 14th total offense in the country is the 51st scoring offense in the country...
To me, I believe the problem has generally been inside the 10-yard line, and that was evident in the Houston game. On 4 possessions, BYU scored TDs in the red zone, but outside of the 10-yard line. Justin Sorensen also made a FG on a red zone possession outside the 10-yard line. However, on the 3 possessions BYU cracked the 10, they had 1 TD, 1 TO, and 1 FG. 100% scoring, 80% TD red zone scoring outside the 10-yard line vs. 67% scoring, 33% TD red zone scoring inside the 10-yard line.
Aggregating those numbers across all games, when BYU gets inside the 10-yard line, they have scored 10 TDs in 19 possessions. 7 of those TDs were either a 1 or 2-yard run. The exceptions were a 4-yard pass to Falslev at Virginia, a 10-yard TD run from Paul Lasike against Texas, and a 6-yard pass to Mitch Matthews against Utah State. Additionally, they have 5 turnovers inside the 10 yard-line and have attempted 4 field goals.
There are two things that stand out to me once BYU gets inside the 10-yard line: 1) they cannot pass and 2) they cannot run. Taysom is 3-10 with 2 TDs and 1 INT from inside the 10-yard line: those numbers will not get the job done (in fact, they eerily match Taysom's numbers during BYU's 1-2 start to the season). In terms of running the ball, BYU had 19 rushing attempts between the 3 and 10-yard lines and only managed ONE touchdown (12 of those attempts came against teams not in the top 50 scoring or rushing defenses, yielding the 1 TD). If BYU can't throw the ball b/c Taysom is 30% with a 10% chance of an INT and BYU can't run the ball until they get 1 or 2 yards away from the end zone, it's problematic for expecting a better return in the red zone.
The problems are a young QB and an average Offensive Line. Again, it isn't the shuffling of the OL that gets me. There are 3 guys that are probably good but just aren't very experienced. There are 3 guys who are experienced but are probably not very good. There are 3 guys that I haven't made my mind up about yet (who are experienced). If BYU doesn't have 5 good, experienced offensive linemen, which I believe is the case, BYU will have to fight for every inch on the goal line, which has definitely been the case. In their defense, they have scored 7 TDs on 8 attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line.
Taysom is young. He is getting better all-around, the red zone passing will improve. Still, in the red zone, BYU's WRs see a lot of tight, press, man-to-man coverage. That is not a scenario where they will consistently succeed. I think BYU's red zone success will come through the maturation of young OL and Taysom making smarter decisions, finding better windows, and utilizing his mobility to get guys open (who won't get open on their own). Otherwise, BYU will just have to rely on big plays to score.
A 53% TD ratio inside the 10-yard line is not the sign of an elite team. BYU needs that number at 75-80% against Boise, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, and the overall red zone TD % above 60%. If they had done that for the season, they'd be 6-1 and ranked, with a victory over in-state rival Utah. As it is, an average OL, a young QB, and zone-busting WRs in a man-to-man world means that BYU will likely only ever get ranked this season if they can beat Boise State and Wisconsin.
TD/Turnover/FG
10/5/4 (inside 10)
7/1/7 (outside 10)
SACKS
Taysom Hill has been sacked 22 times this season. He has thrown 235 passes. I realize there are times that he scrambles on called pass plays for positive yardage but I'd have to go revisit every play of every game to account for those. So, leaving that out, statistically speaking, this means he gets sacked roughly every 11.8 passing plays. In the 1980's or 1990's, or even the 2000's, that would actually be about average. However, in today's high-octane spread offense where the ball comes out quickly, this is well below average (national average is 17.7). In fact, last season, where it seemed Riley Nelson was constantly on the ground, it was every 17.6 passes that a BYU QB was sacked.
In 2013, there are only 21 teams that get sacked more frequently. This is not the kind of company Garrett Tujague and Robert Anae would want to be associated with: Navy (3-3), Idaho (1-6), Florida International (1-5), Pittsburgh (4-2), Connecticut (0-6), New Mexico (2-5), Miami OH (0-7), Rutgers (4-2), Iowa State (1-5), Minnesota (5-2), Kansas (2-4), Army (3-5), Boston College (3-3), Northwestern (4-3), Florida (4-3), South Florida (2-4), Tulane (5-2), Eastern Michigan (1-6), Kentucky (1-5), Hawaii (0-6), and Central Michigan (3-5). These teams combine for a 49-89 record, and none of them appear in this week's rankings (though Florida and Northwestern have at one point this season), and none of these offenses ranks in the top 50 for total or scoring offense except for Rutgers and New Mexico, but I'll go ahead and say that may have something to do with competition level and not quality of offense.
Now, I don't blame the shuffling on the OL like many do. If anything, I actually think that helps keep BYU ahead of those other 21 teams. Taysom Hill is not being sacked b/c of missed assignments. Mobile QBs are sometimes difficult to block for. Taysom's pocket presence isn't amazing in terms of when to step up, when to step back, and when to move left or right. Realistically though, a lot of the sacks are guys just plain getting beat or guys who are beat (as in tired). When BYU goes as fast and as hard as they do, the DL is still rotating more than the OL. Plus, BYU does not have a lot of great offensive linemen to begin with (but more on that in the "Red Zone" section). Shuffling isn't the problem, it's just not a great OL.
With that said, take out the 8 sacks in the Houston game, and all of a sudden, it's every 14.8 pass plays Hill gets sacked. That adds another 15 teams that BYU would be better than.
RED ZONE
The first question to answer is: does BYU really struggle in the red zone or is it just fans having too high of expectations? BYU has scored on 82.4% of all red zone possessions, good to tie for 72nd in the country, which is slightly below average (though, shockingly, Taysom/BYU are ranked higher than Johnny Football's aTm and Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks). However, looking strictly at TD's, BYU gets touchdowns on only 50% of its red zone trips, putting them in a tie for 100th in the country, or the bottom quintile (and significantly worse than Johnny and Marcus, at 69% and 72%, respectively). So, yes, BYU is struggling in the red zone. The 51st highest scoring offense in the country is the 23rd worst red zone scoring offense. That may explain why the 14th total offense in the country is the 51st scoring offense in the country...
To me, I believe the problem has generally been inside the 10-yard line, and that was evident in the Houston game. On 4 possessions, BYU scored TDs in the red zone, but outside of the 10-yard line. Justin Sorensen also made a FG on a red zone possession outside the 10-yard line. However, on the 3 possessions BYU cracked the 10, they had 1 TD, 1 TO, and 1 FG. 100% scoring, 80% TD red zone scoring outside the 10-yard line vs. 67% scoring, 33% TD red zone scoring inside the 10-yard line.
Aggregating those numbers across all games, when BYU gets inside the 10-yard line, they have scored 10 TDs in 19 possessions. 7 of those TDs were either a 1 or 2-yard run. The exceptions were a 4-yard pass to Falslev at Virginia, a 10-yard TD run from Paul Lasike against Texas, and a 6-yard pass to Mitch Matthews against Utah State. Additionally, they have 5 turnovers inside the 10 yard-line and have attempted 4 field goals.
There are two things that stand out to me once BYU gets inside the 10-yard line: 1) they cannot pass and 2) they cannot run. Taysom is 3-10 with 2 TDs and 1 INT from inside the 10-yard line: those numbers will not get the job done (in fact, they eerily match Taysom's numbers during BYU's 1-2 start to the season). In terms of running the ball, BYU had 19 rushing attempts between the 3 and 10-yard lines and only managed ONE touchdown (12 of those attempts came against teams not in the top 50 scoring or rushing defenses, yielding the 1 TD). If BYU can't throw the ball b/c Taysom is 30% with a 10% chance of an INT and BYU can't run the ball until they get 1 or 2 yards away from the end zone, it's problematic for expecting a better return in the red zone.
The problems are a young QB and an average Offensive Line. Again, it isn't the shuffling of the OL that gets me. There are 3 guys that are probably good but just aren't very experienced. There are 3 guys who are experienced but are probably not very good. There are 3 guys that I haven't made my mind up about yet (who are experienced). If BYU doesn't have 5 good, experienced offensive linemen, which I believe is the case, BYU will have to fight for every inch on the goal line, which has definitely been the case. In their defense, they have scored 7 TDs on 8 attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line.
Taysom is young. He is getting better all-around, the red zone passing will improve. Still, in the red zone, BYU's WRs see a lot of tight, press, man-to-man coverage. That is not a scenario where they will consistently succeed. I think BYU's red zone success will come through the maturation of young OL and Taysom making smarter decisions, finding better windows, and utilizing his mobility to get guys open (who won't get open on their own). Otherwise, BYU will just have to rely on big plays to score.
A 53% TD ratio inside the 10-yard line is not the sign of an elite team. BYU needs that number at 75-80% against Boise, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, and the overall red zone TD % above 60%. If they had done that for the season, they'd be 6-1 and ranked, with a victory over in-state rival Utah. As it is, an average OL, a young QB, and zone-busting WRs in a man-to-man world means that BYU will likely only ever get ranked this season if they can beat Boise State and Wisconsin.
TD/Turnover/FG
10/5/4 (inside 10)
7/1/7 (outside 10)
Monday, October 21, 2013
BYU (and Mo) Back on Track
I have been sufficiently reminded by my family that my prediction and analysis has been lacking in this space for a few weeks. I apologize, it was the perfect storm of "stuff" preventing me from having the appropriate time to put forth a solid effort. I promise to go re-watch the BYU games this week and have some additional insights from them...
Initially, the obvious insight is: BYU is getting better. I'm not predicting the same outcome as 2006, but it sure looks like the team didn't figure out how to be good until it was already too late (2 losses, including one that would have said something: Utah), just as it did in 2006. The run defense is phenomenal. The pass defense is serviceable, with its biggest weakness the propensity to give up the big play. They have been pretty dang good at screens and short and intermediate passes. Offensively, other than one or two too many turnovers each game, the team is moving the ball, with much fewer three and outs than earlier in the year and just as many big plays. The attack is definitely more balanced now for 2 big reasons, first being most important in my opinion: 1) WRs are playing better (fewer drops, better routes, and making more difficult plays including getting some yards after catch) and 2) Taysom is more accurate (though his decision-making is still a bit sub-par at times).
The problem now is: can better play turn into more wins? There has been a huge mental issue for BYU when it comes to certain games. Utah and Boise State haven't been "better" than BYU in a lot of their recent contests, but BYU hasn't been able to get out of its own way to pull off victories. So now Boise State looms. Are the Cougars mentally able to get to that next gear? Perhaps the way they managed to pull out the game against Houston is the turning point. It was certainly the first time this season the Cougars dug deep in the 4th Q of a tight game to eke out a win. GT had that potential before Alani Fua took care of things at the end of the 3rd Q and BYU rolled from there. Virginia and Utah were failures in that regard. They had opportunities to win, but didn't capitalize.
BYU has 3 big chances left to finish the season "right" but, like many Cougar fans, I think it takes 9 or 10 wins to really do that. They absolutely must beat Boise State this week. If BYU does not win that game is entirely, 100% mental. They had also better win at least one of the other two big contests at Wisconsin and Notre Dame. After watching Notre Dame very closely this season (and standing for 3.5 straight hours last weekend against USC), that is absolutely a beatable team, given BYU's style, personnel, and tempo. More on that in a few weeks, but I now fully expect BYU to win that game.
Good to be back. I hope you feel the same!
Initially, the obvious insight is: BYU is getting better. I'm not predicting the same outcome as 2006, but it sure looks like the team didn't figure out how to be good until it was already too late (2 losses, including one that would have said something: Utah), just as it did in 2006. The run defense is phenomenal. The pass defense is serviceable, with its biggest weakness the propensity to give up the big play. They have been pretty dang good at screens and short and intermediate passes. Offensively, other than one or two too many turnovers each game, the team is moving the ball, with much fewer three and outs than earlier in the year and just as many big plays. The attack is definitely more balanced now for 2 big reasons, first being most important in my opinion: 1) WRs are playing better (fewer drops, better routes, and making more difficult plays including getting some yards after catch) and 2) Taysom is more accurate (though his decision-making is still a bit sub-par at times).
The problem now is: can better play turn into more wins? There has been a huge mental issue for BYU when it comes to certain games. Utah and Boise State haven't been "better" than BYU in a lot of their recent contests, but BYU hasn't been able to get out of its own way to pull off victories. So now Boise State looms. Are the Cougars mentally able to get to that next gear? Perhaps the way they managed to pull out the game against Houston is the turning point. It was certainly the first time this season the Cougars dug deep in the 4th Q of a tight game to eke out a win. GT had that potential before Alani Fua took care of things at the end of the 3rd Q and BYU rolled from there. Virginia and Utah were failures in that regard. They had opportunities to win, but didn't capitalize.
BYU has 3 big chances left to finish the season "right" but, like many Cougar fans, I think it takes 9 or 10 wins to really do that. They absolutely must beat Boise State this week. If BYU does not win that game is entirely, 100% mental. They had also better win at least one of the other two big contests at Wisconsin and Notre Dame. After watching Notre Dame very closely this season (and standing for 3.5 straight hours last weekend against USC), that is absolutely a beatable team, given BYU's style, personnel, and tempo. More on that in a few weeks, but I now fully expect BYU to win that game.
Good to be back. I hope you feel the same!
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Utah State Preview
Utah State has come a long way as a program in a short time. They were once an after thought in the state of Utah. Now, they beat Utah in 2012 and BYU in 2010, while offering competitive games in many other recent contests. Indeed, Gary Anderson changed the culture at Utah State. And he has Ron McBride to thank.
Ron McBride spent much of his coaching tenure at Utah focused on one thing: figuring out how to beat BYU. He went 5-5 in those contests. He knew that his best chance of making Utah relevant was finding a way to replace BYU at the top of the WAC (and then MWC). So he put in the effort and figured it out. He put together the type of talent and schemes that could do it (half the time at least). In steps Urban Meyer, with Gary Anderson as an assistant coach. They have a winning formula: in order to compete nationally, you have to be relevant locally. Kyle Whittingham and Gary Anderson continued with what McBride started and Urban perfected. They recruited big bodies to occupy the line of scrimmage and they played tight, man-to-man defense in the secondary. They played physical, particularly on the outsides. BYU's expertise was precise route-running WRs. If DBs could force them off their routes, BYU's offensive advantage was mitigated. If LBs could jam BYU's TEs off the line, they would be eliminated. Offensively, they recruited the athleticism that BYU simply couldn't. BYU's defense was often exploited.
Gary Anderson took these philosophies to Logan, understanding that first and foremost, you have to be relevant locally to compete nationally. They heavily recruited local Polynesians who valued early playing time to shore up their OL/DL. They went after athletic WR/DB/RB types, often smaller, and always shunned by larger schools. They scoured the local farm communities for LBs and DL. Their roster was soon filled with athleticism and physicality, and with players that had a chip on their shoulders b/c they didn't feel like they got a fair shake from BYU or Utah, or other big schools close to wherever their homes were. He created rivalries out of "obligations." BYU and Utah felt obligated to play Utah State and beat them, badly in many cases, for decades. Now, he competed with them for every inch of the field.
He changed the culture at Utah State. Now, he left it to his offensive coordinator to keep the momentum going. Time will tell if Matt Wells can hang long-term. Even if he doesn't, Utah State matters locally for now. Some idiot at KSL said the program is on-par with BYU now, which couldn't be further from the truth. They may win Friday night, but make no mistake, Utah State is still the little brother in this weird three-way relationship.
Now to the actual team as it stands in 2013.
Chuckie Keeton is dynamic. He can run but he is so much better this year at using his legs to extend plays so he can throw. Utah State is going to be balanced on offense. The front 3 on defense are going to try to clog up blockers while the back 8 play physical, borderline reckless, defense. That is who Utah State is. Can BYU's D corral Keeton and force him to throw, and to do it from the pocket? Can the BYU WRs deliver some punishment instead of backing down (like they have done to Utah every year for over a decade now, and certainly did the last time up in Logan)? Can BYU's rushing attack withstand an onslaught from 8 or 9 guys in the box every play? With outside blitzes coming to take away Taysom's zone-read?
That is who Utah State is. That is what BYU will see. Does BYU even have an identity? Does Utah State have any idea what they will see?
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are, hands down, the two best coaches in college football and here is why: they know what their teams can and can't do, and every down, they do what they can. Nick Saban is going to run the football and stop the run. He's going to play-action pass to matriculate the ball up the field in chunks. He's going to throw screen passes in blitz situations. He won't be cute with gimmicks and throwing the ball 40 times a game. He knows his team and declares: stop us. That is the consistency BYU played with under Bronco the first 4-5 years. Since then it's been a mystery every year, even varying from game to game. I suppose the element of surprise is nice, but the end result has generally been boring offensive play and an unfamiliar-to-BYU-fans amount of losses.
Utah State knows who they are. BYU knows who Utah State is. We'll find out how much identity matters in 3 days.
Ron McBride spent much of his coaching tenure at Utah focused on one thing: figuring out how to beat BYU. He went 5-5 in those contests. He knew that his best chance of making Utah relevant was finding a way to replace BYU at the top of the WAC (and then MWC). So he put in the effort and figured it out. He put together the type of talent and schemes that could do it (half the time at least). In steps Urban Meyer, with Gary Anderson as an assistant coach. They have a winning formula: in order to compete nationally, you have to be relevant locally. Kyle Whittingham and Gary Anderson continued with what McBride started and Urban perfected. They recruited big bodies to occupy the line of scrimmage and they played tight, man-to-man defense in the secondary. They played physical, particularly on the outsides. BYU's expertise was precise route-running WRs. If DBs could force them off their routes, BYU's offensive advantage was mitigated. If LBs could jam BYU's TEs off the line, they would be eliminated. Offensively, they recruited the athleticism that BYU simply couldn't. BYU's defense was often exploited.
Gary Anderson took these philosophies to Logan, understanding that first and foremost, you have to be relevant locally to compete nationally. They heavily recruited local Polynesians who valued early playing time to shore up their OL/DL. They went after athletic WR/DB/RB types, often smaller, and always shunned by larger schools. They scoured the local farm communities for LBs and DL. Their roster was soon filled with athleticism and physicality, and with players that had a chip on their shoulders b/c they didn't feel like they got a fair shake from BYU or Utah, or other big schools close to wherever their homes were. He created rivalries out of "obligations." BYU and Utah felt obligated to play Utah State and beat them, badly in many cases, for decades. Now, he competed with them for every inch of the field.
He changed the culture at Utah State. Now, he left it to his offensive coordinator to keep the momentum going. Time will tell if Matt Wells can hang long-term. Even if he doesn't, Utah State matters locally for now. Some idiot at KSL said the program is on-par with BYU now, which couldn't be further from the truth. They may win Friday night, but make no mistake, Utah State is still the little brother in this weird three-way relationship.
Now to the actual team as it stands in 2013.
Chuckie Keeton is dynamic. He can run but he is so much better this year at using his legs to extend plays so he can throw. Utah State is going to be balanced on offense. The front 3 on defense are going to try to clog up blockers while the back 8 play physical, borderline reckless, defense. That is who Utah State is. Can BYU's D corral Keeton and force him to throw, and to do it from the pocket? Can the BYU WRs deliver some punishment instead of backing down (like they have done to Utah every year for over a decade now, and certainly did the last time up in Logan)? Can BYU's rushing attack withstand an onslaught from 8 or 9 guys in the box every play? With outside blitzes coming to take away Taysom's zone-read?
That is who Utah State is. That is what BYU will see. Does BYU even have an identity? Does Utah State have any idea what they will see?
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are, hands down, the two best coaches in college football and here is why: they know what their teams can and can't do, and every down, they do what they can. Nick Saban is going to run the football and stop the run. He's going to play-action pass to matriculate the ball up the field in chunks. He's going to throw screen passes in blitz situations. He won't be cute with gimmicks and throwing the ball 40 times a game. He knows his team and declares: stop us. That is the consistency BYU played with under Bronco the first 4-5 years. Since then it's been a mystery every year, even varying from game to game. I suppose the element of surprise is nice, but the end result has generally been boring offensive play and an unfamiliar-to-BYU-fans amount of losses.
Utah State knows who they are. BYU knows who Utah State is. We'll find out how much identity matters in 3 days.
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