Another depressing September graciously comes to an end in Provo. As fans continue to ask what might have been, Bronco presses forward with the thought that BYU is best served by having an injured Riley Nelson lead the team as the Titanic sinks. The one and only thing I dislike about Bronco is that he is willing to lose games in order to mold his team according to his methods (which are probably too rigid). If Riley was injured and playing ineffectively, and Bronco continued to knowingly play him just b/c he's a senior and "earned" the right to play, I have to disagree. The best players play. An ineffective and injured Riley Nelson has NOT earned the right to play. He earned the right by being effective and working his tail off. He is not effective and, by definition, cannot work his tail off if he's hurt. A healthy, effective Riley Nelson has earned the right to play. So rest him this week, let him heal, and play him next week.
Alright, enough with my rant. Bronco just threw away this season b/c he loves Riley Nelson and his work ethic, grit, and leadership skills. OK, now seriously, enough with my rant.
Hawaii stinks. They have a new coach, new scheme, new everything. They are doing this with minimal talent on both sides of the ball. Norm Chow will test BYU's secondary vertically and horizontally and do everything he can to move the ball. I think this is the game that the BYU D does finally force some turnovers, if only b/c of Hawaii's ineptitude. I think BYU fans will be happy to see some old school BYU football tonight: beating the crap out of inferior teams.
It's going to take wins against Utah State and Oregon State for BYU fans to really start caring again THIS season (or Taysom Hill playing and looking like the highly-touted recruit he was out of high school). I can definitely understand people's frustrations. But I also think people are idiotic to call for Bronco's firing (or Doman's). Bronco is one heck of a coach. His defenses are among the best BYU has ever had. Now the O just needs to play a solid game, which Doman will figure out eventually. It isn't all going to come together magically all at once. Doman needs another year or two. Bronco will rebuild his D. Maybe by 2014 the team has a chance to enter a season with the kind of expectations the Cougars ENTERED this season with.
Somewhere in here is my prediction and not just a Friday afternoon "woe is the 2012 season for BYU football" fest. Taysom rises to the occasion of his first collegiate start. Or Riley doesn't stink as bad as he has the rest of the season. Taysom's BYU 41, Hawaii 17, or Riley's BYU 34, Hawaii 20.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Thursday Thoughts, 9/27/2012
Obviously the big talk in Cougar Nation, if people are still tuned in after yet another season "ends" in September, is around the QB situation. That's all well and good. If Riley's healthy he'll play, unless he's ineffective, and then they'll say he's unhealthy and yank him...k, enough about that (and go Hill, in case you wanted to know which side of it I'm on).
I want to talk about the defense today. I watched one of the more inspired efforts I've ever seen from a BYU defense last Thursday night (and the Saturday night before too). BYU's D was put in bad situations time after time and came through on each occasion. Though, let's be honest, it helped that Boise State refused to kick FGs. I saw one of the great defenses in the country competing their butts off. The offense produced nothing, however, and BYU lost the game 7-6.
Fast forward to Saturday. I saw a team with my own eyes that has a championship caliber defense (well, really it's the front 7, I suspect OU will show how poor the secondary is here in about a month) and an atrocious/abysmal offense. Yet, in a game with essentially similar offensive numbers, the championship defense won. How did they win? When the offense wasn't producing, the defense produced! Turnovers were the key that fueled Notre Dame's victory over Michigan, in spite of an offense that produced less than 200 yards in 58 minutes.
People point out that BYU lost its last two games because they were -7 in turnovers those two games. In spite of defensive dominance, the one problem no one is talking about was that BYU was only -7 b/c the defense failed to produce a single turnover. That's not good enough if BYU wants to get to that next level: if BYU's D had forced 1 turnover in each of those games, BYU still would have been -5 in turnovers, but they would have been 2-0. I'm firmly convinced of that.
BYU's D is limiting yards and points, forcing punts, and getting off the field quickly. But when an offense struggles, a championship-level defense flips the field. They pick up a fumble and return it 47 yards for a TD. They pick off a pass and rumble 30+ yards to the end zone. Or just pick off ANY pass or recover ANY fumble. For as good as BYU's D has been, they haven't been a championship D. That's why BYU fans are clinging to the hope that BYU can still go 8-4 against what now looks like a much more difficult schedule with Utah State playing really well, Oregon State being ranked, Notre Dame sitting in (or just outside) the top ten, and SJSU receiving more votes in the polls than BYU (it only takes one to do that these days).
On a side note, I got to sit in on a (very candid) meeting with ND Hoops Coach Mike Brey today. I love being in South Bend. He got me so excited about something I've never given a rat's pooh-shooter about: Notre Dame basketball. The guy is a stud. He's sharp. He's honest. He's real. He did scare the crap out of me about how good St. Joe's is (whom BYU plays in Brooklyn in November). I am now an Irish b-ball (and Mike Brey) fan.
I'm still working on the football fan thing, it's tough overcoming a decade of being a hater, but I have to say, the atmosphere for Michigan-ND at night was pretty amazing. I spent the second half sitting right next to the recruits. They looked really impressed with the environment as well. Torii Hunter's son committed to ND right after the game. David Robinson (who was 2 feet away from me at one point on Saturday afternoon) also had a son commit recently. It's definitely a great venue to take in a game. I recommend it. I even have a couch for those interested in attending (though this year's BYU game the couch is already spoken for, but Stanford, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh...)!
I want to talk about the defense today. I watched one of the more inspired efforts I've ever seen from a BYU defense last Thursday night (and the Saturday night before too). BYU's D was put in bad situations time after time and came through on each occasion. Though, let's be honest, it helped that Boise State refused to kick FGs. I saw one of the great defenses in the country competing their butts off. The offense produced nothing, however, and BYU lost the game 7-6.
Fast forward to Saturday. I saw a team with my own eyes that has a championship caliber defense (well, really it's the front 7, I suspect OU will show how poor the secondary is here in about a month) and an atrocious/abysmal offense. Yet, in a game with essentially similar offensive numbers, the championship defense won. How did they win? When the offense wasn't producing, the defense produced! Turnovers were the key that fueled Notre Dame's victory over Michigan, in spite of an offense that produced less than 200 yards in 58 minutes.
People point out that BYU lost its last two games because they were -7 in turnovers those two games. In spite of defensive dominance, the one problem no one is talking about was that BYU was only -7 b/c the defense failed to produce a single turnover. That's not good enough if BYU wants to get to that next level: if BYU's D had forced 1 turnover in each of those games, BYU still would have been -5 in turnovers, but they would have been 2-0. I'm firmly convinced of that.
BYU's D is limiting yards and points, forcing punts, and getting off the field quickly. But when an offense struggles, a championship-level defense flips the field. They pick up a fumble and return it 47 yards for a TD. They pick off a pass and rumble 30+ yards to the end zone. Or just pick off ANY pass or recover ANY fumble. For as good as BYU's D has been, they haven't been a championship D. That's why BYU fans are clinging to the hope that BYU can still go 8-4 against what now looks like a much more difficult schedule with Utah State playing really well, Oregon State being ranked, Notre Dame sitting in (or just outside) the top ten, and SJSU receiving more votes in the polls than BYU (it only takes one to do that these days).
On a side note, I got to sit in on a (very candid) meeting with ND Hoops Coach Mike Brey today. I love being in South Bend. He got me so excited about something I've never given a rat's pooh-shooter about: Notre Dame basketball. The guy is a stud. He's sharp. He's honest. He's real. He did scare the crap out of me about how good St. Joe's is (whom BYU plays in Brooklyn in November). I am now an Irish b-ball (and Mike Brey) fan.
I'm still working on the football fan thing, it's tough overcoming a decade of being a hater, but I have to say, the atmosphere for Michigan-ND at night was pretty amazing. I spent the second half sitting right next to the recruits. They looked really impressed with the environment as well. Torii Hunter's son committed to ND right after the game. David Robinson (who was 2 feet away from me at one point on Saturday afternoon) also had a son commit recently. It's definitely a great venue to take in a game. I recommend it. I even have a couch for those interested in attending (though this year's BYU game the couch is already spoken for, but Stanford, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh...)!
Saturday, September 22, 2012
BYU Opponents Predictions, Week Four
Miami at Georgia Tech
The U's speed on defense can prevent big plays for GT, but ultimately defending the option is about discipline. GT 27, Miami 20.
Oregon State at UCLA
Beavers played some solid run D against Wisconsin. But UCLA presents an entirely different and more dynamic rushing attack. UCLA 27, Oregon State 17.
Colorado at Washington State
I think Wazu is building some momentum. Colorado has none. Wazu 38, CU 10.
Wyoming at Idaho
If this game happens and nobody sees it, did it really happen? Idaho 20, Wyo 17.
Utah State at Colorado State
How do the Aggies respond after heartbreak last week at Wisconsin? Well, probably with a blowout win against an overmatched CSU Rams team. Utah State 31, CSU 13.
Michigan at Notre Dame
Michigan proved they are not there yet after utter destruction against Alabma. The Irish have to avenge last year's absolute collapse in the 4th quarter. This is only the second night game in the last 20 years at Notre Dame. It's going to be hopping. I'll make sure of that! Notre Dame 34, Michigan 17.
San Jose State at San Diego State
I know most people don't care about this one but I'm quite intrigued by the matchup actually. SDSU prepares for a move to the Big East. SJSU played Stanford tougher than USC did. I suspect there will be a lot of points here. SDSU 38, SJSU 34.
New Mexico at New Mexico State
In the rivalry game, who knows what can happen. I think Walker for NMSU understands the importance of this game more than old Bob at UNM. NMSU 23, UNM 15.
Utah at Arizona State
We saw how BYU responded against Boise after the excruciating loss, i.e. with an even more excruciating loss. How will Utah respond after the win? Well, I don't know what to expect from Utah's offense, but I suspect they'll break a few more big plays than they did last week. ASU though has a lot more big-play potential than the Utes. Ultimately, the Sun Devils wear Utah down after the emotional game last week. ASU 27, Utah 17.
Nevada at Hawaii
I think Nevada has the better team, Hawaii has the homefield. Hawaii 24, Nevada 21.
The U's speed on defense can prevent big plays for GT, but ultimately defending the option is about discipline. GT 27, Miami 20.
Oregon State at UCLA
Beavers played some solid run D against Wisconsin. But UCLA presents an entirely different and more dynamic rushing attack. UCLA 27, Oregon State 17.
Colorado at Washington State
I think Wazu is building some momentum. Colorado has none. Wazu 38, CU 10.
Wyoming at Idaho
If this game happens and nobody sees it, did it really happen? Idaho 20, Wyo 17.
Utah State at Colorado State
How do the Aggies respond after heartbreak last week at Wisconsin? Well, probably with a blowout win against an overmatched CSU Rams team. Utah State 31, CSU 13.
Michigan at Notre Dame
Michigan proved they are not there yet after utter destruction against Alabma. The Irish have to avenge last year's absolute collapse in the 4th quarter. This is only the second night game in the last 20 years at Notre Dame. It's going to be hopping. I'll make sure of that! Notre Dame 34, Michigan 17.
San Jose State at San Diego State
I know most people don't care about this one but I'm quite intrigued by the matchup actually. SDSU prepares for a move to the Big East. SJSU played Stanford tougher than USC did. I suspect there will be a lot of points here. SDSU 38, SJSU 34.
New Mexico at New Mexico State
In the rivalry game, who knows what can happen. I think Walker for NMSU understands the importance of this game more than old Bob at UNM. NMSU 23, UNM 15.
Utah at Arizona State
We saw how BYU responded against Boise after the excruciating loss, i.e. with an even more excruciating loss. How will Utah respond after the win? Well, I don't know what to expect from Utah's offense, but I suspect they'll break a few more big plays than they did last week. ASU though has a lot more big-play potential than the Utes. Ultimately, the Sun Devils wear Utah down after the emotional game last week. ASU 27, Utah 17.
Nevada at Hawaii
I think Nevada has the better team, Hawaii has the homefield. Hawaii 24, Nevada 21.
Friday, September 21, 2012
On Further Review, 9/21/2012
There were a few things about BYU that we learned last night. I let my fandom show a lot in posts and rants the past week or two. But realistically, what can BYU fans really expect out of a program with an honor code as strict as BYU's? We have some great players. Bronco is putting as great of a group of personnel as I've ever seen at BYU.
BYU didn't lose the game b/c of the failed 2-point conversion. I don't like the call. I do like the fact that Bronco wanted to show his faith in the young QB, but I think he showed a lot of disrespect to his defense that kept BYU in the game with stand after stand. He robbed them of an opportunity to win the game. That's the real negative in my mind: taking the defense out of the game and putting it in the hands of an untested guy. But, like I said, that call didn't lose BYU the game: BYU's offense and the 5 turnovers lost BYU the game. Anyway, enough fluff, now to my 3 lessons.
1. Riley's leadership isn't universal. Rewind one year to the debacle that was BYU's first 5 games. Jake Heaps was turning it over in bunches. People said he had lost the team. In steps Riley Nelson and he leads the team to miraculous comebacks.
It's easy to "lead" when you aren't the one screwing up. Last night, it was Riley Nelson with his head down pacing the sideline. In steps Taysom Hill to clean up Riley's mess. It's easy to be the guy that comes in to fix someone else's mistakes, it's a lot harder to lead when you are the guy. Riley's leadership was absent in the 3rd quarters at Utah and Boise. He could not rally the troops around him because he was the problem, not the solution. Is Taysom now the solution?
I think there are probably a lot of BYU fans like me that feel that there is no reason not to play him. The goal this season had to be a BCS game with 29 seniors and one of the top D's in the country. Riley proved unworthy. Now they have to reshift focus and prepare for next year. That's just my personal opinion: if BYU goes 6-6 or 10-2 with Riley Nelson, they play in the Poinsettia Bowl and they have to rebuild next year. If BYU goes 6-6 or 10-2 with Taysom Hill, they play in the Poinsettia Bowl and they have an experienced QB heading into next season. Maybe that will be enough to keep Cody Hoffman and Kyle Van Noy for their senior seasons. Riley proved he can lead BYU to victories over teams BYU should beat. But he has yet to beat a team that BYU wasn't significantly better than. In the 50-50 games, he's 0-fer. Beat Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, Hawaii, Tulsa, Washington State, Weber State. He lost to TCU (because of his turnovers), lost to Utah (because of his inability to calm/lead the O), and lost to Boise State (because of his turnovers).
2. It's unfortunate that Riley is not the guy. The pieces are there defensively. The defense is not a top 15 D like I stated before the game. That is one of the absolute top 5 defenses in the country. BYU is -5 in turnovers and the BYU D doesn't give up a point. The BYU offense manages 100 yards through 2.5 quarters and BYU only loses the Time of Possession battle essentially by the last possession where Boise ran out the clock. The special teams were solid too, at least on punts and punt returns. No opportunities to kick field goals or kick off, thanks to Riley's turnovers.
The defense is unreal.
3. Doman isn't ready for prime time yet either. BYU attempted just 3 passes over 15 yards the entire evening. I know BYU fans remember the "fade" days of Robert Anae, but at least it forced defenses to defend the entire field occasionally. It's just a touch throw. It's low risk but the odds are against you of completing it as well. BYU didn't even TRY to make Boise State for its steady diet of man coverage. I won't say the play calls were suspect, b/c he did reasonably well considering he has an incapable offensive line. But every once in a while you HAVE to go deep, even if it's just to show that you can. And who knows, with Cody Hoffman maybe you even get a big play or pass interference out of it.
It's just a shame that BYU didn't try it a single time. Who knows how the outcome might have changed...
BYU didn't lose the game b/c of the failed 2-point conversion. I don't like the call. I do like the fact that Bronco wanted to show his faith in the young QB, but I think he showed a lot of disrespect to his defense that kept BYU in the game with stand after stand. He robbed them of an opportunity to win the game. That's the real negative in my mind: taking the defense out of the game and putting it in the hands of an untested guy. But, like I said, that call didn't lose BYU the game: BYU's offense and the 5 turnovers lost BYU the game. Anyway, enough fluff, now to my 3 lessons.
1. Riley's leadership isn't universal. Rewind one year to the debacle that was BYU's first 5 games. Jake Heaps was turning it over in bunches. People said he had lost the team. In steps Riley Nelson and he leads the team to miraculous comebacks.
It's easy to "lead" when you aren't the one screwing up. Last night, it was Riley Nelson with his head down pacing the sideline. In steps Taysom Hill to clean up Riley's mess. It's easy to be the guy that comes in to fix someone else's mistakes, it's a lot harder to lead when you are the guy. Riley's leadership was absent in the 3rd quarters at Utah and Boise. He could not rally the troops around him because he was the problem, not the solution. Is Taysom now the solution?
I think there are probably a lot of BYU fans like me that feel that there is no reason not to play him. The goal this season had to be a BCS game with 29 seniors and one of the top D's in the country. Riley proved unworthy. Now they have to reshift focus and prepare for next year. That's just my personal opinion: if BYU goes 6-6 or 10-2 with Riley Nelson, they play in the Poinsettia Bowl and they have to rebuild next year. If BYU goes 6-6 or 10-2 with Taysom Hill, they play in the Poinsettia Bowl and they have an experienced QB heading into next season. Maybe that will be enough to keep Cody Hoffman and Kyle Van Noy for their senior seasons. Riley proved he can lead BYU to victories over teams BYU should beat. But he has yet to beat a team that BYU wasn't significantly better than. In the 50-50 games, he's 0-fer. Beat Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, Hawaii, Tulsa, Washington State, Weber State. He lost to TCU (because of his turnovers), lost to Utah (because of his inability to calm/lead the O), and lost to Boise State (because of his turnovers).
2. It's unfortunate that Riley is not the guy. The pieces are there defensively. The defense is not a top 15 D like I stated before the game. That is one of the absolute top 5 defenses in the country. BYU is -5 in turnovers and the BYU D doesn't give up a point. The BYU offense manages 100 yards through 2.5 quarters and BYU only loses the Time of Possession battle essentially by the last possession where Boise ran out the clock. The special teams were solid too, at least on punts and punt returns. No opportunities to kick field goals or kick off, thanks to Riley's turnovers.
The defense is unreal.
3. Doman isn't ready for prime time yet either. BYU attempted just 3 passes over 15 yards the entire evening. I know BYU fans remember the "fade" days of Robert Anae, but at least it forced defenses to defend the entire field occasionally. It's just a touch throw. It's low risk but the odds are against you of completing it as well. BYU didn't even TRY to make Boise State for its steady diet of man coverage. I won't say the play calls were suspect, b/c he did reasonably well considering he has an incapable offensive line. But every once in a while you HAVE to go deep, even if it's just to show that you can. And who knows, with Cody Hoffman maybe you even get a big play or pass interference out of it.
It's just a shame that BYU didn't try it a single time. Who knows how the outcome might have changed...
Thursday, September 20, 2012
BYU at Boise Recap...
I am incredulous. BYU does nothing all night, they finally move the ball, then refuse to go to OT with all of the momentum. Ballsy to go for the win, but you have a frosh QB in there seeing his first action. Nothing more to say.
On second thought (over an hour later), I do have more to say...not ballsy to go for the win. You have a freshman QB seeing his first significant minutes. Boise State has no faith in its kicker. Your defense is playing amazingly well. The game will go to OT if you take the XP. If you miss it, you have no timeouts left and it only takes one first down for Boise to ice the game (which they got, so it's easy to say that). I think it's an OK call, if you have two timeouts and if you don't put the ball on the left hash so everybody and their dog knows it's a QB roll right (unless you take all the flow right and throw back to the left???). Of all the times in the world I WISH the OL would have false-started, that was one of them! False start, kick the XP. Go to OT. With the momentum. Win the game. Who knows, with that D, maybe you go 11-1! I'd be shocked if BYU wins 9 now...too bad b/c it's a dang good D. Too bad that the 29 seniors have to live with two losses like the two BYU has. Now they play the rest of the season knowing they are playing a crap MWC team in the crap Poinsettia Bowl. Hopes, dreams, expectations all gone now. Given that, what do you all think: play Taysom now?
On second thought (over an hour later), I do have more to say...not ballsy to go for the win. You have a freshman QB seeing his first significant minutes. Boise State has no faith in its kicker. Your defense is playing amazingly well. The game will go to OT if you take the XP. If you miss it, you have no timeouts left and it only takes one first down for Boise to ice the game (which they got, so it's easy to say that). I think it's an OK call, if you have two timeouts and if you don't put the ball on the left hash so everybody and their dog knows it's a QB roll right (unless you take all the flow right and throw back to the left???). Of all the times in the world I WISH the OL would have false-started, that was one of them! False start, kick the XP. Go to OT. With the momentum. Win the game. Who knows, with that D, maybe you go 11-1! I'd be shocked if BYU wins 9 now...too bad b/c it's a dang good D. Too bad that the 29 seniors have to live with two losses like the two BYU has. Now they play the rest of the season knowing they are playing a crap MWC team in the crap Poinsettia Bowl. Hopes, dreams, expectations all gone now. Given that, what do you all think: play Taysom now?
4th Quarter Thoughts
1st Offensive Possession
Can't expect much on 3rd and long. And we didn't get much. Not a bad attempt, man coverage, getting Hoffman on a crossing route, but at some point, BYU needs to take a shot deep.
Much better punt coverage tonight, for sure.
1st Defensive Possession
The D continues to deliver solid pops, even this late, on a quick turnaround, getting demolished on time of possession.
Man, big time play on 3rd. And lucky bounce...too bad it didn't go sideways and out of bounds, gained another 20 yards on it. Not much chance for the BYU O unless they do something different. Doman needs to earn his paycheck here. I don't have much faith here. I think BYU has to throw the ball deep on this possession. Boise has NO RESPECT for BYU's ability to throw the ball down the field.
2nd Offensive Possession
D was playing for the pass there, backed off. Young QB, this is bad...historically bad.
Good toughness by Taysom. Cut upfield and went for the first down. Nice.
Another penalty...yikes, BYU.
Man...open WRs twice. Even Nelson could have made those throws. Haha. BYU just can't catch a break. Stephenson had a HUGE punt called back for a review. Coming back from the commercial, watch him shank or Boise block it...man, the pessimism is coming out in full force tonight. Good old BYU football.
A lot of "bad luck" tonight. BYU needs to get off their butts and MAKE some good luck. Do something different, throw ONE deep pass to Hoffman 1-on-1. Hit a TE on a post. Anything.
2nd Defensive Possession
BYU D has been huge on 1st downs all night. Problem is it sets up passing situations...lucked out with a dropped pass (and called offensive PI...).
And another great bounce on a punt. I think you have to go with Riley. This situation is too big for the frosh. Backed up inside the 10, down 7, 4th quarter.
The BYU I know turns it over here and loses this game 14-0. Is this BYU team better than that? They haven't looked like it...
3rd Offensive Possession
FINALLY! Take a shot deep and good things happen. Looking more like a BYU offense.
Man, where has this been all night. Excitement. Mixing things up. Pass, Option, QB Draw. Biggest play of Taysom Hill's career for sure. 4th and 3. Thursday night. On the road. ESPN broadcasting it nationally. I'm curious to see what Doman draws up for the young buck. I hope it's not a designed QB run. I don't want to see a rollout either. In the pocket pass, tuck it if you need to. Tough call. Doman's got to make it. People will question him until the end of time if he gets it wrong.
Nice play by Hoffman on that catch. That's balls.
Wow...why Bronco? That's a bad call.
Go to OT...no timeouts...have to get a three and out and then kick a FG...three and out, well, maybe. Drive and FG...nope.
3rd Defensive Possession
Too bad on the return. Too bad on the play-action pass. Too bad. Bronco showed confidence, which is nice...but you can show confidence by letting him win in OT...the first down ended it. I don't know why they aren't just taking a knee...
Can't expect much on 3rd and long. And we didn't get much. Not a bad attempt, man coverage, getting Hoffman on a crossing route, but at some point, BYU needs to take a shot deep.
Much better punt coverage tonight, for sure.
1st Defensive Possession
The D continues to deliver solid pops, even this late, on a quick turnaround, getting demolished on time of possession.
Man, big time play on 3rd. And lucky bounce...too bad it didn't go sideways and out of bounds, gained another 20 yards on it. Not much chance for the BYU O unless they do something different. Doman needs to earn his paycheck here. I don't have much faith here. I think BYU has to throw the ball deep on this possession. Boise has NO RESPECT for BYU's ability to throw the ball down the field.
2nd Offensive Possession
D was playing for the pass there, backed off. Young QB, this is bad...historically bad.
Good toughness by Taysom. Cut upfield and went for the first down. Nice.
Another penalty...yikes, BYU.
Man...open WRs twice. Even Nelson could have made those throws. Haha. BYU just can't catch a break. Stephenson had a HUGE punt called back for a review. Coming back from the commercial, watch him shank or Boise block it...man, the pessimism is coming out in full force tonight. Good old BYU football.
A lot of "bad luck" tonight. BYU needs to get off their butts and MAKE some good luck. Do something different, throw ONE deep pass to Hoffman 1-on-1. Hit a TE on a post. Anything.
2nd Defensive Possession
BYU D has been huge on 1st downs all night. Problem is it sets up passing situations...lucked out with a dropped pass (and called offensive PI...).
And another great bounce on a punt. I think you have to go with Riley. This situation is too big for the frosh. Backed up inside the 10, down 7, 4th quarter.
The BYU I know turns it over here and loses this game 14-0. Is this BYU team better than that? They haven't looked like it...
3rd Offensive Possession
FINALLY! Take a shot deep and good things happen. Looking more like a BYU offense.
Man, where has this been all night. Excitement. Mixing things up. Pass, Option, QB Draw. Biggest play of Taysom Hill's career for sure. 4th and 3. Thursday night. On the road. ESPN broadcasting it nationally. I'm curious to see what Doman draws up for the young buck. I hope it's not a designed QB run. I don't want to see a rollout either. In the pocket pass, tuck it if you need to. Tough call. Doman's got to make it. People will question him until the end of time if he gets it wrong.
Nice play by Hoffman on that catch. That's balls.
Wow...why Bronco? That's a bad call.
Go to OT...no timeouts...have to get a three and out and then kick a FG...three and out, well, maybe. Drive and FG...nope.
3rd Defensive Possession
Too bad on the return. Too bad on the play-action pass. Too bad. Bronco showed confidence, which is nice...but you can show confidence by letting him win in OT...the first down ended it. I don't know why they aren't just taking a knee...
3rd Quarter Thoughts
I realize this is tough to follow. These are my notes as I'm watching...I should probably do that a little differently and go possession by possession??? Maybe I'll try it in the 4th Q.
Offense
Riley is officially holding BYU back. Another "bad luck" turnover. But at some point, three unfortunate turnovers on the QB is 3 turnovers on the QB.
I like Doman showing trust in Jamaal Williams by giving him the ball the first play after the turnover.
Riley strikes again. I don't believe in calling for a change, but SOMETHING has to change. Take a deep shot? Run a trick play? Or...bring in Taysom.
OR...fumble...wow.
Taysom Hill showing a little green...gotta throw that away and not take a sack.
False Start...man, the OL is awful. No holes. Big-time penalty. Almost followed up with a stupid penalty too...only one time out left now, that could come back to haunt BYU, especially the way the O is playing.
The OL is just getting worked over all night.
I am SO SICK of our Offensive Line. THEY SUCK!
Man...this is killer.
Does Tiny Tim get another chance in the 4th? This is eerily similar to watching the Broncos last season. But Tebow never got yanked and put back in. I think next possession has to be Riley's if Taysom can't convert. This is big time now, you have to bring the experienced guy back in the game.
Defense
Really solid D. I can't say enough about how hard and well those guys are playing. With NO SUPPORT from the offense, in fact, I would call it NEGATIVE support from the O, Boise has scored exactly 0 points on them.
BYU took a chance on 3rd and long by bringing the blitz, since they were converting them anyway, got burned for a first down.
Kaveinga dropped another easy pick. That's two or three on the season? BYU D needs to stand after that, it's killer to give up points after that. Well-played by BYU D.
Quick kick: well-played by Boise State. Would have liked to see a goalline view on that though if it crossed the goalline. And, wish we had...fumble...
Man...BIG 3rd down stop. Please kick...please kick...please kick...if I'm Boise, play-action pass and hit a TE on an out route. Wow...QB sneak. Kyle Van Noy. Go, O!
Another huge defensive stand. 4th down stop. Again. It's now up to the future of BYU football: Taysom Hill.
Special Teams
Stephenson needs a BIG kick here. Last year, he would shank this. Let's see if this year is different. Nope...bailed out by the Broncos getting a penalty.
Other
LOVING Bronco's enthusiasm. He needs to show something. His team needs something different from him tonight I think.
Offense
Riley is officially holding BYU back. Another "bad luck" turnover. But at some point, three unfortunate turnovers on the QB is 3 turnovers on the QB.
I like Doman showing trust in Jamaal Williams by giving him the ball the first play after the turnover.
Riley strikes again. I don't believe in calling for a change, but SOMETHING has to change. Take a deep shot? Run a trick play? Or...bring in Taysom.
OR...fumble...wow.
Taysom Hill showing a little green...gotta throw that away and not take a sack.
False Start...man, the OL is awful. No holes. Big-time penalty. Almost followed up with a stupid penalty too...only one time out left now, that could come back to haunt BYU, especially the way the O is playing.
The OL is just getting worked over all night.
I am SO SICK of our Offensive Line. THEY SUCK!
Man...this is killer.
Does Tiny Tim get another chance in the 4th? This is eerily similar to watching the Broncos last season. But Tebow never got yanked and put back in. I think next possession has to be Riley's if Taysom can't convert. This is big time now, you have to bring the experienced guy back in the game.
Defense
Really solid D. I can't say enough about how hard and well those guys are playing. With NO SUPPORT from the offense, in fact, I would call it NEGATIVE support from the O, Boise has scored exactly 0 points on them.
BYU took a chance on 3rd and long by bringing the blitz, since they were converting them anyway, got burned for a first down.
Kaveinga dropped another easy pick. That's two or three on the season? BYU D needs to stand after that, it's killer to give up points after that. Well-played by BYU D.
Quick kick: well-played by Boise State. Would have liked to see a goalline view on that though if it crossed the goalline. And, wish we had...fumble...
Man...BIG 3rd down stop. Please kick...please kick...please kick...if I'm Boise, play-action pass and hit a TE on an out route. Wow...QB sneak. Kyle Van Noy. Go, O!
Another huge defensive stand. 4th down stop. Again. It's now up to the future of BYU football: Taysom Hill.
Special Teams
Stephenson needs a BIG kick here. Last year, he would shank this. Let's see if this year is different. Nope...bailed out by the Broncos getting a penalty.
Other
LOVING Bronco's enthusiasm. He needs to show something. His team needs something different from him tonight I think.
2nd Quarter Thoughts
As with the first quarter thoughts, there is no organization here. Just throwing crap out there.
Offense:
Offense:
First play of the quarter: power run with the FB leading. Not sure I like 2nd play of the
quarter!
Now we know why Nelson isn’t confident…needs more air under it…no
PI called, could have been according to the rulebook…they called the chop block according to the rulebook...haha
Finally didn’t target Hoffman on 3rd down, and
they finally converted on a passing play.
Nelson is getting ridiculous on the rollouts…stop calling
them!
Keep feeding Alisa in the 2nd half, maybe not on
the 2-minute drive…
I don’t know how BYU will score. Nelson can’t be trusted with the football.
Defense:
3rd and pass kills if BYU doesn’t get sacks. Never seem to make the play with the
secondary. Even on 3rd and
17, have to hold them to 10 yards or less…
Run D continues to play solid, can’t let up and give up a
big one. Wow…next play after writing
this, Broncos bust one…
The D has to stop momentum b/c Riley isn’t generating any:
coverage sack, well-played screen, missed hold and 10 yards…too much, told Lilo
7 or fewer on that 3rd down play…dropped 8 on 4th and
made the play!
Special Teams:
Broncos special teams clearly sub-par this season, punting
poor, refusing to kick FGs...
Other:
Penalties are killer…but I question a few of them…
Are you kidding, me Joe Sampson!
Yes, two great D’s facing off tonight, but this is an
offensive crap fest right now…
1st Quarter Thoughts
Literally no organization of thoughts, these are just my own notes on the first quarter.
Defense
The DL is controlling the play through one quarter. Broncos OL not getting much push.
With that control over the OL, LBs are filling well: they're continually in the backfield.
Offense
Early on, Riley staring at Hoffman.
Finally got a couple to Apo. Close call on an illegal touching, then a bad throw on a quick screen prevented him from getting the first down.
BYU had a "trick" formation but was forced to call timeout. Come on, Doman!
Nelson isn't confident on those rollouts, better to keep him in pocket?
On 3rd and 2, BYU tries a power run with no FB?
No worries when you have Taysom Hill on 4th down.
Special Teams
BYU obviously worked on punt coverage this week!
Punt return team practiced the fake too! Getting Ziggy with it.
Does their punter suck or do they fear Falslev that much? Maybe they do, faked it too!
Other
Great teams take momentum after a missed chip shot field goal. Not BYU...
Defense
The DL is controlling the play through one quarter. Broncos OL not getting much push.
With that control over the OL, LBs are filling well: they're continually in the backfield.
Offense
Early on, Riley staring at Hoffman.
Finally got a couple to Apo. Close call on an illegal touching, then a bad throw on a quick screen prevented him from getting the first down.
BYU had a "trick" formation but was forced to call timeout. Come on, Doman!
Nelson isn't confident on those rollouts, better to keep him in pocket?
On 3rd and 2, BYU tries a power run with no FB?
No worries when you have Taysom Hill on 4th down.
Special Teams
BYU obviously worked on punt coverage this week!
Punt return team practiced the fake too! Getting Ziggy with it.
Does their punter suck or do they fear Falslev that much? Maybe they do, faked it too!
Other
Great teams take momentum after a missed chip shot field goal. Not BYU...
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Wednesday Waffle, 9/19/2012
Sorry for the lack of a Tuesday Tidbits. I was still too sickened (by the two-minute lapse in concentration that resulted in a 17-point swing and ultimately cost BYU the game...) to go back and sort through the stats for interesting trends.
Today, I am waffling on something that I have mentioned before: the Holy War. I personally do not feel that either team NEEDS the game to be played. Utah proved last season that it needs to schedule more free wins after it's 4-5 Pac 12 record. [Insert joke here about BYU being a free win for the Utes.] BYU proved again last Saturday that they are not capable of playing its usual type of football against Utah. Last year it was the 7 turnovers. This year it was the 12 penalties and the fumble turned Utah TD and the residual TD Utah scored b/c BYU pouted instead of manning up.
Utah will almost never be ranked by the 3rd week of the season. It just won't happen very frequently. I think it's only happened twice in their history, but maybe I'm mistaken and it's 3 times. Yet, in the rivalry game, even a ranked and obviously better BYU team struggles against Utah (see 2009, 2006, 2001, I'll leave 2012 as an open debate for now). The cost of the loss is much worse than the benefit from a win. If BYU wins, they beat the 5th-8th best Pac 12 team. But, because of the rivalry, the chances of losing to Utah are much higher than they are against the other 5th-8th best Pac 12 teams. Utah has figured out the key to beating BYU: just don't screw up and wait for BYU to make fools of themselves.
Both teams are near capacity on average for their home games, so they don't need the boost in attendance that comes from playing the game. Both teams are playing good teams, so they don't need the additional quality opponent. Utah would like to replace BYU with teams it can beat more easily, like Utah State (haha), to ensure that even on a down or rebuilding year they have an easier time making a bowl game. Assuming BYU can schedule games against teams like Georgia Tech or the Arizona schools, (i.e. teams equal to Utah in terms of quality, but that won't "get up" for the BYU game as much as Utah does), then they could easily look to replace Utah on the schedule.
Now, I don't believe this is the case for BYU. I don't think BYU will be able to continue to get quality games to replace Utah. In this regard, I think BYU needs to try to push forward with it. But I don't like it. The cost and risks are too large and the reward is too small for BYU, but for Utah as well. Take this year for example, Utah beat a ranked BYU team and everybody in the country that saw any highlights from the weekend knows it. Yet, Utah barely moved up at all in the polls, and, in fact, is behind BYU is one of the polls. If Utah had lost the game, they would have no chance to be ranked again the rest of the season.
Not to mention the frustration BYU fans feel in watching the Cougars revert back to dumped teenage girl from Sandy status (see my post 3rd quarter rant from Saturday night: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/09/3-quarters-in-im-done-again.html).
Today, I am waffling on something that I have mentioned before: the Holy War. I personally do not feel that either team NEEDS the game to be played. Utah proved last season that it needs to schedule more free wins after it's 4-5 Pac 12 record. [Insert joke here about BYU being a free win for the Utes.] BYU proved again last Saturday that they are not capable of playing its usual type of football against Utah. Last year it was the 7 turnovers. This year it was the 12 penalties and the fumble turned Utah TD and the residual TD Utah scored b/c BYU pouted instead of manning up.
Utah will almost never be ranked by the 3rd week of the season. It just won't happen very frequently. I think it's only happened twice in their history, but maybe I'm mistaken and it's 3 times. Yet, in the rivalry game, even a ranked and obviously better BYU team struggles against Utah (see 2009, 2006, 2001, I'll leave 2012 as an open debate for now). The cost of the loss is much worse than the benefit from a win. If BYU wins, they beat the 5th-8th best Pac 12 team. But, because of the rivalry, the chances of losing to Utah are much higher than they are against the other 5th-8th best Pac 12 teams. Utah has figured out the key to beating BYU: just don't screw up and wait for BYU to make fools of themselves.
Both teams are near capacity on average for their home games, so they don't need the boost in attendance that comes from playing the game. Both teams are playing good teams, so they don't need the additional quality opponent. Utah would like to replace BYU with teams it can beat more easily, like Utah State (haha), to ensure that even on a down or rebuilding year they have an easier time making a bowl game. Assuming BYU can schedule games against teams like Georgia Tech or the Arizona schools, (i.e. teams equal to Utah in terms of quality, but that won't "get up" for the BYU game as much as Utah does), then they could easily look to replace Utah on the schedule.
Now, I don't believe this is the case for BYU. I don't think BYU will be able to continue to get quality games to replace Utah. In this regard, I think BYU needs to try to push forward with it. But I don't like it. The cost and risks are too large and the reward is too small for BYU, but for Utah as well. Take this year for example, Utah beat a ranked BYU team and everybody in the country that saw any highlights from the weekend knows it. Yet, Utah barely moved up at all in the polls, and, in fact, is behind BYU is one of the polls. If Utah had lost the game, they would have no chance to be ranked again the rest of the season.
Not to mention the frustration BYU fans feel in watching the Cougars revert back to dumped teenage girl from Sandy status (see my post 3rd quarter rant from Saturday night: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/09/3-quarters-in-im-done-again.html).
Sunday, September 16, 2012
National Title Contenders
Two more teams go by the wayside. Longshot BYU and the final Big Ten hopeful Michigan State went down, in two completely different fashions. Sparty was outplayed from the get-go and got creamed at home by someone still on this list. BYU went on the road at their rival and, well, anyone reading this probably knows how the story goes, as it's been going on three years in a row. They outplay Utah for more than half the game and give up the ghost in the second half. They were a stretch anyway.
Alabama
Clemson (at Florida State)
Florida
Florida State (Clemson)
Georgia
Kansas State (at Oklahoma)
LSU (at Auburn)
Notre Dame (Michigan)
Oklahoma (hosting Kansas State)
Oregon
South Carolina (Missouri)
Stanford
TCU
Texas
USC
West Virginia
I leave USC on the list, even with the loss, because they can still beat Oregon twice or Oregon once while beating Stanford in the Pac 12 Title game. I don't believe the ACC loser survives. I am also not sure the Oklahoma-Kansas State loser can survive the loss without a conference championship game, since other "losers" have a chance to go 12-1, where Big 12 champ could only be 11-1...
UCLA is trying to play their way onto this list, but I think playing a freshman QB will eventually cost them a close game or one on the road. Three weeks in, half of the teams are eliminated from contention. The regular season is a playoff...
Alabama
Clemson (at Florida State)
Florida
Florida State (Clemson)
Georgia
Kansas State (at Oklahoma)
LSU (at Auburn)
Notre Dame (Michigan)
Oklahoma (hosting Kansas State)
Oregon
South Carolina (Missouri)
Stanford
TCU
Texas
USC
West Virginia
I leave USC on the list, even with the loss, because they can still beat Oregon twice or Oregon once while beating Stanford in the Pac 12 Title game. I don't believe the ACC loser survives. I am also not sure the Oklahoma-Kansas State loser can survive the loss without a conference championship game, since other "losers" have a chance to go 12-1, where Big 12 champ could only be 11-1...
UCLA is trying to play their way onto this list, but I think playing a freshman QB will eventually cost them a close game or one on the road. Three weeks in, half of the teams are eliminated from contention. The regular season is a playoff...
BYU at Utah Recap 9/16/2012
Well, I did actually finish watching the game, in spite of my post-3rd quarter rant. The way these games end it just makes one wonder: what would happen if BYU doesn't spot Utah leads time and time again. No discredit to the Utes. They made the four or five plays they needed, they capitalized on BYU's mistakes, and they won the game. But this game was just as much about BYU losing/collapsing mentally as it was about Utah winning.
I am going to toot my own horn here for a second: I was able to predict how this game would play out with pretty darn good accuracy. There was little offense. It all came down to special teams and turnovers where a low-scoring close game would be decided by a field goal, with Utah winning, and defined by one or two big plays. I figured more of those big plays would go Utah's way, which definitely happened. The game pivoted on really just a few plays, some of which Utah made and the others BYU just handed over. How many times in this game did the ball literally bounce the wrong way for the Cougars? The first TD catch by Utah was a bobbled ball, that just as easily could have bounced out of his hands and resulted in a Ute FG attempt (-4 points from Utah). An ill-timed snap: if it hits Nelson on the way back and BYU recovers, they have a chance for a FG to tie it at 10. Instead, it completely misses Nelson, Alisa can't grab it, and it bounces up perfectly to Utah's Mo Lee who runs it back for a TD (10-point swing). That was just a few inches away from being an unfortunate play. Instead, it was a game-changer. BYU was mentally finished for the next few costly minutes of the game, allowing Utah to get ANOTHER touchdown before BYU "woke up." The next possession was marred by penalties, then BYU gave up a big punt return, followed by a BYU DB falling asleep (when the scouting report has to say Utah's going to take a shot on that play), not interferring with the WR enough, and the Ute player making a great catch. Utah made a great play, but that play shouldn't happen if BYU doesn't go into a shell...(additional 7 points Utah)
Speaking of the ball bouncing the wrong way: doink. And out. Another inch the other way and the game-tying FG goes in off the karem. Another unlucky play. It just seems to be that way for BYU against Utah these days (+3 points to BYU).
Again, credit Utah. Their defense played well enough to allow the few plays the O and special teams made to really count. BYU, other than that stretch in the 3rd quarter, played well enough to win the game. Unfortunately, 14-0 during that stretch, and 17-0 in aggregate in the 3rd Quarter can't be ignored. Utah had one drive over 40 yards the entire game and they didn't even score on it. Utah only scored on one possession where they started in their own territory (and that was starting on the 47-yard line and making a long field goal). BYU's D did their job. Two (bad) throws resulted in great catches and TDs for the Utes. Other than that, there was really only one offensive play the rest of the night: a missed tackle in the backfield by BYU resulted in a big gain with under 3 minutes to go.
I said this week, with or without John White IV, with or without Jordan Wynn, Utah was going to struggle moving the ball consistently and had to rely on the big play. They delivered on their end: three big plays and a whole lot of nothing. Utah had one rushing play over 10 yards: a QB scramble on a pass play, actually. Utah had 2 pass plays for over 20 yards: the aforementioned long TD pass and the aforementioned missed tackle on a WR screen that resulted in a big run after the catch with under 3 minutes to go. That was it for Utah offensively.
I said that BYU was going to have to win this game by pinning Utah deep, not turning the ball over, and setting themselves up with good field position through strong defensive play and good returns. Utah started 3 possessions within 53 yards of the end zone, yielding 17 points. Fail. Two turnovers, leading directly to 10 Utah points. Fail. BYU started half of its possessions outside of their 30-yard line. Success. To so badly fail at two of the three keys to the game and only lose by a missed FG at the end...again with that "it makes one wonder" thing.
That's what makes this a rivalry: you don't have to play your best game to have a chance to win (and sometimes you play an arguably better game and lose. Though those losses are piling up more on the BYU side than the Utah one. Again with that mental toughness/killer instinct that BYU has always been missing). What makes it a bitter rivalry: the Ute fans and players that rushed the field, not to celebrate the victory with their team and fellow students, but to run over to the BYU sideline and taunt the Y players after the game.
It was the same thing the last time up in Salt Lake after Utah blocked the potential game-winning FG: people sprinting to the BYU sideline to get a word in before the players get into the locker room. Classless. The entire institution. Haha...not really. Just a shame this kind of thing still exists. It ruins what would otherwise be one of the great rivalries in college sports. If you're going to rush the field after beating a 25th ranked team, do it for YOUR team. Not that I support rushing the field anyway (three times) after eking out a win against a barely-ranked-in-one-poll team (and not ranked in the other poll)...
That's a great win for Utah. It potentially saves their season, certainly things look less bleak tonight than they did after last week. But still, the lack of offense for the 2nd consecutive week has to be a little worrisome for them. BYU goes off to defend their season now, in Boise. They can't lose there if they expect to maintain any kind of relevance or credibility as the season goes along, just as the Utes could not afford to lose tonight.
I am going to toot my own horn here for a second: I was able to predict how this game would play out with pretty darn good accuracy. There was little offense. It all came down to special teams and turnovers where a low-scoring close game would be decided by a field goal, with Utah winning, and defined by one or two big plays. I figured more of those big plays would go Utah's way, which definitely happened. The game pivoted on really just a few plays, some of which Utah made and the others BYU just handed over. How many times in this game did the ball literally bounce the wrong way for the Cougars? The first TD catch by Utah was a bobbled ball, that just as easily could have bounced out of his hands and resulted in a Ute FG attempt (-4 points from Utah). An ill-timed snap: if it hits Nelson on the way back and BYU recovers, they have a chance for a FG to tie it at 10. Instead, it completely misses Nelson, Alisa can't grab it, and it bounces up perfectly to Utah's Mo Lee who runs it back for a TD (10-point swing). That was just a few inches away from being an unfortunate play. Instead, it was a game-changer. BYU was mentally finished for the next few costly minutes of the game, allowing Utah to get ANOTHER touchdown before BYU "woke up." The next possession was marred by penalties, then BYU gave up a big punt return, followed by a BYU DB falling asleep (when the scouting report has to say Utah's going to take a shot on that play), not interferring with the WR enough, and the Ute player making a great catch. Utah made a great play, but that play shouldn't happen if BYU doesn't go into a shell...(additional 7 points Utah)
Speaking of the ball bouncing the wrong way: doink. And out. Another inch the other way and the game-tying FG goes in off the karem. Another unlucky play. It just seems to be that way for BYU against Utah these days (+3 points to BYU).
Again, credit Utah. Their defense played well enough to allow the few plays the O and special teams made to really count. BYU, other than that stretch in the 3rd quarter, played well enough to win the game. Unfortunately, 14-0 during that stretch, and 17-0 in aggregate in the 3rd Quarter can't be ignored. Utah had one drive over 40 yards the entire game and they didn't even score on it. Utah only scored on one possession where they started in their own territory (and that was starting on the 47-yard line and making a long field goal). BYU's D did their job. Two (bad) throws resulted in great catches and TDs for the Utes. Other than that, there was really only one offensive play the rest of the night: a missed tackle in the backfield by BYU resulted in a big gain with under 3 minutes to go.
I said this week, with or without John White IV, with or without Jordan Wynn, Utah was going to struggle moving the ball consistently and had to rely on the big play. They delivered on their end: three big plays and a whole lot of nothing. Utah had one rushing play over 10 yards: a QB scramble on a pass play, actually. Utah had 2 pass plays for over 20 yards: the aforementioned long TD pass and the aforementioned missed tackle on a WR screen that resulted in a big run after the catch with under 3 minutes to go. That was it for Utah offensively.
I said that BYU was going to have to win this game by pinning Utah deep, not turning the ball over, and setting themselves up with good field position through strong defensive play and good returns. Utah started 3 possessions within 53 yards of the end zone, yielding 17 points. Fail. Two turnovers, leading directly to 10 Utah points. Fail. BYU started half of its possessions outside of their 30-yard line. Success. To so badly fail at two of the three keys to the game and only lose by a missed FG at the end...again with that "it makes one wonder" thing.
That's what makes this a rivalry: you don't have to play your best game to have a chance to win (and sometimes you play an arguably better game and lose. Though those losses are piling up more on the BYU side than the Utah one. Again with that mental toughness/killer instinct that BYU has always been missing). What makes it a bitter rivalry: the Ute fans and players that rushed the field, not to celebrate the victory with their team and fellow students, but to run over to the BYU sideline and taunt the Y players after the game.
It was the same thing the last time up in Salt Lake after Utah blocked the potential game-winning FG: people sprinting to the BYU sideline to get a word in before the players get into the locker room. Classless. The entire institution. Haha...not really. Just a shame this kind of thing still exists. It ruins what would otherwise be one of the great rivalries in college sports. If you're going to rush the field after beating a 25th ranked team, do it for YOUR team. Not that I support rushing the field anyway (three times) after eking out a win against a barely-ranked-in-one-poll team (and not ranked in the other poll)...
That's a great win for Utah. It potentially saves their season, certainly things look less bleak tonight than they did after last week. But still, the lack of offense for the 2nd consecutive week has to be a little worrisome for them. BYU goes off to defend their season now, in Boise. They can't lose there if they expect to maintain any kind of relevance or credibility as the season goes along, just as the Utes could not afford to lose tonight.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
3 Quarters In, I'm Done. Again.
Mental fortitude. Grit. Leadership. Toughness. Those are adjectives people within the BYU program use to describe Riley Nelson. The team takes on the same mindset as him.
Blah. Blah. Blah.
BYU has the mental fortitude of a high school girl from Sandy, Utah during a particularly bad time of the month after getting dumped by her boyfriend for her best friend.
False Starts. Missed blocks. False starts. Poor kick coverage. False starts. Riley holding the ball too long. False starts. Stupid post-play penalties. Not covering the deep ball after a big turnaround in the game (Utah's mantra for the past decade).
Another year, another time not watching the 4th quarter. Two years in a row, I can't even stand to watch my team quit, I mean finish, the game.
The team got in a bad spot or two, yes. And then they folded. "This year is different." Different team? Nah. Same old BYU. Spoiled rich. Teenage. Girl. "That" time. Dumped. For best friend.
Grow a pair. Until then, don't waste our time saying you're better.
(As I wrote this...BYU responds with a TD drive...too little. Too late. Think teenage girl. Desperate attempt to get her boyfriend back...)
Blah. Blah. Blah.
BYU has the mental fortitude of a high school girl from Sandy, Utah during a particularly bad time of the month after getting dumped by her boyfriend for her best friend.
False Starts. Missed blocks. False starts. Poor kick coverage. False starts. Riley holding the ball too long. False starts. Stupid post-play penalties. Not covering the deep ball after a big turnaround in the game (Utah's mantra for the past decade).
Another year, another time not watching the 4th quarter. Two years in a row, I can't even stand to watch my team quit, I mean finish, the game.
The team got in a bad spot or two, yes. And then they folded. "This year is different." Different team? Nah. Same old BYU. Spoiled rich. Teenage. Girl. "That" time. Dumped. For best friend.
Grow a pair. Until then, don't waste our time saying you're better.
(As I wrote this...BYU responds with a TD drive...too little. Too late. Think teenage girl. Desperate attempt to get her boyfriend back...)
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Prediction: BYU at Utah, 9/15/2012
Where Does BYU Go From Here?
In yesterday's post, I mentioned that I wondered where Utah would go if they lost to BYU. I think BYU is at somewhat of a crossroads on their own. BYU has a better team than it has had in some time. It has a better team than it will have next year. The seniors know that one loss is one too many if they want to get into a BCS game. That makes the Utah game an absolute must-win. The team could respond and win a bunch of games, but this is the first of just a handful that "matter" according to national media. With a loss, BYU will disappear from the collective subconscious of the people that matter in college football. No more ranking. No more BCS talk. No more coverage this season.
If BYU loses, will they have a letdown next week too? Does it lead to a downward spiral or can they recover? Well, in the preseason I thought they'd lose this game and rebound next week at Boise. My opinion of BYU's resolve hasn't changed. BYU could recover from one loss. I'm not as sure they bounce back after the second one, but we'll get there when we get there. Right now, the Cougars are still 2-0.
Is the Future Now?
Part of Utah's struggle right now is Wynn's retirement brings Utah to have to make a program decision during rivalry week: play the senior and hope to salvage the season? Or give the freshman experience to build on for next year? I believe you have to go with the senior, at least until the bye. The Utes cannot afford to take a true freshman from 3rd string to starter in a week's time. That would crush their hopes in this weekend's game and could signal a metaphorical wave of the white flag for the season. Go with Hays. The way the OL blocks, Wilson may get his chance soon enough anyway!
The Matchup
I think both offenses struggle in this game. Traditionally, these rivalry games are higher-scoring at Utah and lower-scoring in Provo. The last two years have put a decade of tradition, or at least my opinions, to the test. Well, last year UTAH did by scoring a bunch in Provo. I think the atmosphere in Rice-Eccles is just that much more electrifying and traditionally leads to more gamers making more game plays. Both teams have WRs and TEs that can provide big plays and create mismatches with the opposing D's secondary. However, neither team has a true slinger, pocket-passer to get that done.
I suspect the running game won't even amount to "three yards and a cloud of dust" on Saturday, especially if John White doesn't play for Utah. I suspect Utah will attempt to get their running game going with some Travis Wilson wildcat and an occasional WR reverse. I am not sure what the Cougars plan on doing to establish a ground attack. I don't suspect that a steady diet of QB draws will get the job done. They may have a LITTLE success with the option. There just isn't much evidence that the power running game will actually work against Utah.
I really believe the defenses will dominate the evening (or morning for us in the Eastern Time Zone). Utah's weakness on D is BYU's weakness on O. Utah has no strengths on O, so, nothing to compare there. However, in a defensive struggle, I always like the Utes to make one more big play. Well, I don't LIKE it, but I would trust Utah more in that situation. I have felt that way for the past 15 years. I've been right most of them too. A blocked field goal to end regulation in 2010. A single successful FG attempt in 2003. The only year BYU flipped the script was Collie's magical reception...
Cougars, I know you all hope I'm wrong here, as do I, but I'm sticking with my preseason prediction: Utah 16, BYU 13.
In yesterday's post, I mentioned that I wondered where Utah would go if they lost to BYU. I think BYU is at somewhat of a crossroads on their own. BYU has a better team than it has had in some time. It has a better team than it will have next year. The seniors know that one loss is one too many if they want to get into a BCS game. That makes the Utah game an absolute must-win. The team could respond and win a bunch of games, but this is the first of just a handful that "matter" according to national media. With a loss, BYU will disappear from the collective subconscious of the people that matter in college football. No more ranking. No more BCS talk. No more coverage this season.
If BYU loses, will they have a letdown next week too? Does it lead to a downward spiral or can they recover? Well, in the preseason I thought they'd lose this game and rebound next week at Boise. My opinion of BYU's resolve hasn't changed. BYU could recover from one loss. I'm not as sure they bounce back after the second one, but we'll get there when we get there. Right now, the Cougars are still 2-0.
Is the Future Now?
Part of Utah's struggle right now is Wynn's retirement brings Utah to have to make a program decision during rivalry week: play the senior and hope to salvage the season? Or give the freshman experience to build on for next year? I believe you have to go with the senior, at least until the bye. The Utes cannot afford to take a true freshman from 3rd string to starter in a week's time. That would crush their hopes in this weekend's game and could signal a metaphorical wave of the white flag for the season. Go with Hays. The way the OL blocks, Wilson may get his chance soon enough anyway!
The Matchup
I think both offenses struggle in this game. Traditionally, these rivalry games are higher-scoring at Utah and lower-scoring in Provo. The last two years have put a decade of tradition, or at least my opinions, to the test. Well, last year UTAH did by scoring a bunch in Provo. I think the atmosphere in Rice-Eccles is just that much more electrifying and traditionally leads to more gamers making more game plays. Both teams have WRs and TEs that can provide big plays and create mismatches with the opposing D's secondary. However, neither team has a true slinger, pocket-passer to get that done.
I suspect the running game won't even amount to "three yards and a cloud of dust" on Saturday, especially if John White doesn't play for Utah. I suspect Utah will attempt to get their running game going with some Travis Wilson wildcat and an occasional WR reverse. I am not sure what the Cougars plan on doing to establish a ground attack. I don't suspect that a steady diet of QB draws will get the job done. They may have a LITTLE success with the option. There just isn't much evidence that the power running game will actually work against Utah.
I really believe the defenses will dominate the evening (or morning for us in the Eastern Time Zone). Utah's weakness on D is BYU's weakness on O. Utah has no strengths on O, so, nothing to compare there. However, in a defensive struggle, I always like the Utes to make one more big play. Well, I don't LIKE it, but I would trust Utah more in that situation. I have felt that way for the past 15 years. I've been right most of them too. A blocked field goal to end regulation in 2010. A single successful FG attempt in 2003. The only year BYU flipped the script was Collie's magical reception...
Cougars, I know you all hope I'm wrong here, as do I, but I'm sticking with my preseason prediction: Utah 16, BYU 13.
Thursday Thoughts, 9/13/2012
Lame Week Three
As far as week threes go, this one is particularly weak on non-conference games. Notre Dame at Michigan State is really the only headliner, in terms of ranked, or historically decent, teams playing each other outside of intentional conference matchups. Florida plays at Tennessee, which will showcase a very rare thing these days: a sold-out Tennessee stadium. It's been 4 years since Tennessee was ranked. USC travels to Palo Alto to take on, and theoretically expose, Stanford. If not for Utah's loss last weekend, the Holy War might have taken on a bigger stage this weekend, especially with the garbage schedule. Then there is the Alabama at Arkansas game. That one promises to be interesting. Of all the "big" games this week, I think this one has the chance to be the closest. I don't think Arkansas will pull off the upset, but I also think 20 points is an absurd spread for a team playing on the road against a team that was in the top 10 just one week ago...
How Does BYU Attack Utah?
I think Utah's biggest weakness on D this year was bound to be it's back 7. They are playing a 3rd string SS this week. Most of the others in the back 7 had somewhat limited experience coming into the season. However, Utah's DL is superb, truly an elite unit. Given that a SS isn't supposed to be a D's strongest cover guy anyway, but more of an 8th man to stack in the box, the Utah run D should be more than adequate, if not downright disruptive for the Cougars. What will kill Utah this season is a precision passing attack. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Riley Nelson and the BYU pass-catching group isn't a prototypical run and gun, sling it all over the field type of offense. The Ute DBs can cover the type of offense that BYU brings to the table this season. It's more of a play-action, 5-step drop, intermediate type of attack, with a couple of WR bubble screens mixed in.
So, if the Ute DL owns the BYU OL in the running game, which is more than likely, and the BYU passing game isn't geared towards attacking the Ute DBs in a reliable manner, how will BYU attack Utah? Realistically, I think the Y's best/only chance to put up points on Utah is field position: the BYU D forcing turnovers, the return teams setting BYU up nicely, the coverage teams pinning Utah deep and forcing long fields for them.
How Does Utah Attack BYU?
Utah will not be able to continuously gimmick its way past this BYU team, like their flea-flicker against Utah State. They will have to fight and claw for every yard. Utah is not going to have a big-armed slinger at QB. It's either "game-manager" Jon Hays or "run-first" Travis Wilson, or both. Utah also had problems in pass protection last week. BYU has LBs that can beat any Ute lineman on a blitz. The 3-man front demands at least 4 guys to block them. That means Utah will need a TE or a RB to stay in to block, putting one less man in a route, or one fewer man to cover. I just don't see Utah managing consistent drives through the air.
This means Utah will have to bring their A game in the running game. But again, BYU's 3 DL demand at least 4 OL to block them. The 4 LBs are beasts and probably won't be blocked play-in and play-out with one OL either. John White is a good back, who had a great year behind a great OL last year. This year, he's got an average line and looks like an average back. Oh, and if the front 7 weren't enough of a problem, SS Daniel Sorensen has looked great so far this season in the run game.
If Utah can't throw and can't run against BYU, how will they score? Well, their big play potential is higher than BYU's. John White can break any run, with just a small hole. Travis Wilson has a few tricks up his sleeve. DeVonte Christopher, Jake Murphy, and Kenneth Scott can go after the jump ball with the best of them. They may not need to drive down the field if they can break two or three big plays, whether on a trick play or not. But that has realistically been Utah's traditional recipe for success against BYU in the Bronco-Whittingham era: big plays and strong D. I don't expect this year will be any different.
So, does BYU win the field position battle or does Utah win the big play battle?
Where Does Utah Go From Here?
After a loss at a rising, but only above average Utah State team by the Utes, what comes next? Well, unfortunately, a lot of tougher teams do. On any given day, that Utah State team could beat most of the teams on Utah's schedule, but I wouldn't say Utah State is better than most of the teams on Utah's schedule. Cal, yes. Washington State, yes. Colorado, yes. The list probably ends there (though who knows, maybe they're better than BYU, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona: time will tell on those five). So, how does Utah survive? Well, for one, the game at Utah State was an in-state rivalry game, on the road, in Logan for the last time, so it's excusable to see the Little Brother rise up and beat them.
However, most of the teams on the Utes' schedule look even better than I thought they would be before the season started: BYU has shown more defensively and in the passing game than I thought they could; Arizona State just thumped Illinois, scoring 45 points in the process; USC has scored 6 and 7 TDs in their two games; UCLA just ran all over a Nebraska D just as good as Utah's; Oregon State just held Wisconsin's run game to essentially nothing; Arizona just beat a decent Oklahoma State coming off a BCS bowl win. Cal is struggling. Wazu isn't rebuilding as fast as ESPN hoped. Colorado, well, yeah, that should be a win, but it should have been a win last year too.
All of a sudden, what looked like a potential 9-win season, challenging USC for the Pac 12 South, is on the brink. If they don't beat BYU, they may not actually be good enough to make a bowl game against that schedule. As it lines up right now, Utah would be theoretical underdogs in 5 or 6 of their remaining 10 games, including this week's BYU game where they come in as an actual underdog. So, they'll need to pull off at least one "upset" to ensure themselves 6 wins. Obviously, betting lines are a fickle thing. If Utah had won in OT against Utah State, they'd be favorites against BYU and Arizona right now. But that doesn't change the fact that they have to beat BYU. I'm sure that is on their minds coming into this game. Coaches may not "look ahead" but players do. They know the stakes. They saw 3 of their road games get that much tougher last weekend. I think a desperate Utah is a dangerous thing, especially for BYU. BYU's been beat by far lesser Utah teams than this one!
As far as week threes go, this one is particularly weak on non-conference games. Notre Dame at Michigan State is really the only headliner, in terms of ranked, or historically decent, teams playing each other outside of intentional conference matchups. Florida plays at Tennessee, which will showcase a very rare thing these days: a sold-out Tennessee stadium. It's been 4 years since Tennessee was ranked. USC travels to Palo Alto to take on, and theoretically expose, Stanford. If not for Utah's loss last weekend, the Holy War might have taken on a bigger stage this weekend, especially with the garbage schedule. Then there is the Alabama at Arkansas game. That one promises to be interesting. Of all the "big" games this week, I think this one has the chance to be the closest. I don't think Arkansas will pull off the upset, but I also think 20 points is an absurd spread for a team playing on the road against a team that was in the top 10 just one week ago...
How Does BYU Attack Utah?
I think Utah's biggest weakness on D this year was bound to be it's back 7. They are playing a 3rd string SS this week. Most of the others in the back 7 had somewhat limited experience coming into the season. However, Utah's DL is superb, truly an elite unit. Given that a SS isn't supposed to be a D's strongest cover guy anyway, but more of an 8th man to stack in the box, the Utah run D should be more than adequate, if not downright disruptive for the Cougars. What will kill Utah this season is a precision passing attack. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Riley Nelson and the BYU pass-catching group isn't a prototypical run and gun, sling it all over the field type of offense. The Ute DBs can cover the type of offense that BYU brings to the table this season. It's more of a play-action, 5-step drop, intermediate type of attack, with a couple of WR bubble screens mixed in.
So, if the Ute DL owns the BYU OL in the running game, which is more than likely, and the BYU passing game isn't geared towards attacking the Ute DBs in a reliable manner, how will BYU attack Utah? Realistically, I think the Y's best/only chance to put up points on Utah is field position: the BYU D forcing turnovers, the return teams setting BYU up nicely, the coverage teams pinning Utah deep and forcing long fields for them.
How Does Utah Attack BYU?
Utah will not be able to continuously gimmick its way past this BYU team, like their flea-flicker against Utah State. They will have to fight and claw for every yard. Utah is not going to have a big-armed slinger at QB. It's either "game-manager" Jon Hays or "run-first" Travis Wilson, or both. Utah also had problems in pass protection last week. BYU has LBs that can beat any Ute lineman on a blitz. The 3-man front demands at least 4 guys to block them. That means Utah will need a TE or a RB to stay in to block, putting one less man in a route, or one fewer man to cover. I just don't see Utah managing consistent drives through the air.
This means Utah will have to bring their A game in the running game. But again, BYU's 3 DL demand at least 4 OL to block them. The 4 LBs are beasts and probably won't be blocked play-in and play-out with one OL either. John White is a good back, who had a great year behind a great OL last year. This year, he's got an average line and looks like an average back. Oh, and if the front 7 weren't enough of a problem, SS Daniel Sorensen has looked great so far this season in the run game.
If Utah can't throw and can't run against BYU, how will they score? Well, their big play potential is higher than BYU's. John White can break any run, with just a small hole. Travis Wilson has a few tricks up his sleeve. DeVonte Christopher, Jake Murphy, and Kenneth Scott can go after the jump ball with the best of them. They may not need to drive down the field if they can break two or three big plays, whether on a trick play or not. But that has realistically been Utah's traditional recipe for success against BYU in the Bronco-Whittingham era: big plays and strong D. I don't expect this year will be any different.
So, does BYU win the field position battle or does Utah win the big play battle?
Where Does Utah Go From Here?
After a loss at a rising, but only above average Utah State team by the Utes, what comes next? Well, unfortunately, a lot of tougher teams do. On any given day, that Utah State team could beat most of the teams on Utah's schedule, but I wouldn't say Utah State is better than most of the teams on Utah's schedule. Cal, yes. Washington State, yes. Colorado, yes. The list probably ends there (though who knows, maybe they're better than BYU, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona: time will tell on those five). So, how does Utah survive? Well, for one, the game at Utah State was an in-state rivalry game, on the road, in Logan for the last time, so it's excusable to see the Little Brother rise up and beat them.
However, most of the teams on the Utes' schedule look even better than I thought they would be before the season started: BYU has shown more defensively and in the passing game than I thought they could; Arizona State just thumped Illinois, scoring 45 points in the process; USC has scored 6 and 7 TDs in their two games; UCLA just ran all over a Nebraska D just as good as Utah's; Oregon State just held Wisconsin's run game to essentially nothing; Arizona just beat a decent Oklahoma State coming off a BCS bowl win. Cal is struggling. Wazu isn't rebuilding as fast as ESPN hoped. Colorado, well, yeah, that should be a win, but it should have been a win last year too.
All of a sudden, what looked like a potential 9-win season, challenging USC for the Pac 12 South, is on the brink. If they don't beat BYU, they may not actually be good enough to make a bowl game against that schedule. As it lines up right now, Utah would be theoretical underdogs in 5 or 6 of their remaining 10 games, including this week's BYU game where they come in as an actual underdog. So, they'll need to pull off at least one "upset" to ensure themselves 6 wins. Obviously, betting lines are a fickle thing. If Utah had won in OT against Utah State, they'd be favorites against BYU and Arizona right now. But that doesn't change the fact that they have to beat BYU. I'm sure that is on their minds coming into this game. Coaches may not "look ahead" but players do. They know the stakes. They saw 3 of their road games get that much tougher last weekend. I think a desperate Utah is a dangerous thing, especially for BYU. BYU's been beat by far lesser Utah teams than this one!
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Wednesday Waffle, 9/12/2012
Notre Dame to the ACC
In addition to moving basketball and Olympic sports to the ACC, Notre Dame is also promising to play 5 football games each year against ACC opponents. Starting in 2014 and 2015, ND already had 4 games scheduled with the ACC, so it's not that big of a deal.
Now, BYU fans, here's why this matters. BYU and ND currently have a 6-game series scheduled, commencing this season with 2013 and 2014 games set in stone. This move limits the likelihood that ND will show up on any future schedules after this contract expires (not to mention the risk that ND will cancel some of the games in this series).
ND is schedule to play 5 ACC teams, USC, Stanford, Purdue, Michigan, and Navy annually. The future of the Navy game is never in jeopardy: they will play Navy as the Irish consider it a debt of honor to play them. Michigan and ND are taking a two-year hiatus in a few years, but they've inked a deal through 2031. Purdue isn't going to turn down ND. Michigan State has a deal with 3 two-year breaks scheduled through 2031. The Pac 12 has made special considerations for USC and Stanford that they have not made for anyone else: so those series are probably going to continue.
This leaves about 3 games a year that BYU could show up in. My guess is that unless this turns into a real intersectional rivalry, with hard-fought, aggravating results, BYU won't get another game with ND after this deal runs out. As a future ND alum, I like the move. As a current BYU alum, I think there's an almost certain negative fallout for BYU.
Jordan Wynn Injury and Retirement
Too bad for Jordan Wynn. Although he probably picked a good time to get out. 2 of his 3 prior shoulder surgeries came as a result of injuries suffered against BYU. Unfortunately for BYU, I think this is a mixed bag. Jordan Wynn had a great second half against BYU in 2011, but who didn't, honestly?
But Jordan Wynn, when healthy, has struggled in most every other game he played the past two seasons. BYU sure could use Wynn back there struggling again. On the flip side, Jon Hays is an average QB that hasn't played many defenses as good as what BYU sports this season. Travis Wilson is a true freshman. He hasn't seen ANY defenses yet. What BYU is getting is average QB play, though more dynamic running from the QBs. What BYU is missing is potentially misplaced hope or overconfidence in a QB that may not be able to get the job done.
Ultimately, BYU is probably better off facing a combination of Hays and Wilson than Wynn. I do put some blame on Wynn's injuries with a lack of coaching: he hasn't improved in his decision-making or audibles in three years. BJ didn't do him any favors. But I am waffling on whether his injury hurts or helps BYU today.
In addition to moving basketball and Olympic sports to the ACC, Notre Dame is also promising to play 5 football games each year against ACC opponents. Starting in 2014 and 2015, ND already had 4 games scheduled with the ACC, so it's not that big of a deal.
Now, BYU fans, here's why this matters. BYU and ND currently have a 6-game series scheduled, commencing this season with 2013 and 2014 games set in stone. This move limits the likelihood that ND will show up on any future schedules after this contract expires (not to mention the risk that ND will cancel some of the games in this series).
ND is schedule to play 5 ACC teams, USC, Stanford, Purdue, Michigan, and Navy annually. The future of the Navy game is never in jeopardy: they will play Navy as the Irish consider it a debt of honor to play them. Michigan and ND are taking a two-year hiatus in a few years, but they've inked a deal through 2031. Purdue isn't going to turn down ND. Michigan State has a deal with 3 two-year breaks scheduled through 2031. The Pac 12 has made special considerations for USC and Stanford that they have not made for anyone else: so those series are probably going to continue.
This leaves about 3 games a year that BYU could show up in. My guess is that unless this turns into a real intersectional rivalry, with hard-fought, aggravating results, BYU won't get another game with ND after this deal runs out. As a future ND alum, I like the move. As a current BYU alum, I think there's an almost certain negative fallout for BYU.
Jordan Wynn Injury and Retirement
Too bad for Jordan Wynn. Although he probably picked a good time to get out. 2 of his 3 prior shoulder surgeries came as a result of injuries suffered against BYU. Unfortunately for BYU, I think this is a mixed bag. Jordan Wynn had a great second half against BYU in 2011, but who didn't, honestly?
But Jordan Wynn, when healthy, has struggled in most every other game he played the past two seasons. BYU sure could use Wynn back there struggling again. On the flip side, Jon Hays is an average QB that hasn't played many defenses as good as what BYU sports this season. Travis Wilson is a true freshman. He hasn't seen ANY defenses yet. What BYU is getting is average QB play, though more dynamic running from the QBs. What BYU is missing is potentially misplaced hope or overconfidence in a QB that may not be able to get the job done.
Ultimately, BYU is probably better off facing a combination of Hays and Wilson than Wynn. I do put some blame on Wynn's injuries with a lack of coaching: he hasn't improved in his decision-making or audibles in three years. BJ didn't do him any favors. But I am waffling on whether his injury hurts or helps BYU today.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Tuesday Tidbits, 9/11/2012
Turnovers
A lot has been said about the BYU-Utah game and turnovers. Rightfully so. There's been a lot of stats thrown out by people a lot smarter than I, but here is how I view it as a fan: BYU freezes up when it plays Utah. Generally speaking, Utah plays one of its better games of the season against BYU. So there's a huge psychological barrier for BYU when it faces against the Utes. On the flip side, there is something about playing BYU (lack of athleticism, maybe?), that brings out the best in the Utes. Usually...
When BYU is clearly the better team, they turn it over infrequently but don't force turnovers, even against turnover-prone Ute offenses, and barely beat Utah (and usually in miraculous fashion on the last play of the game or in OT). When Utah is clearly the better team, BYU turns it over at a ridiculous pace and Utah destroys BYU. When it's about 50-50, BYU turns the ball over and Utah wins a close one. Right now, it's not clear that BYU is the better team, but I'd say it's closer to a 60-40 game than it is to 50-50.
2011: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars had a +3 turnover margin. Against Utah, they were -5. BYU gets blown out.
2010: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars were +3. Against Utah, they were -1. BYU loses a close one.
2009: BYU was -1 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were +1. They won the game. Barely.
2008: BYU was +8 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were -6. Blown out.
2007: BYU was -6 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were EVEN. They won the game. Barely.
2006: BYU was +14 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were EVEN. They won the game. Barely.
2005: BYU was +7 the other 11 games. Against Utah, they were -1. They lost the game. Barely.
Now, Utah's 2008 D was something special. Coached by Gary Andersen and Kyle Whittingham, led by several future NFL players, they were beastly. Max Hall imploded, yes. But Utah helped speed that along, and then capitalized on EVERY bad throw (of which there were many). In the other seasons, however, Utah was, at best, the 3rd best D on BYU's schedule, yet the turnover margin was, almost without fail, worse than the rest of the season. Psychological edge: Utah!
If tradition holds, BYU simply cannot lose the turnover battle and win the game. When Utah wins the turnover battle, the Utes win the game. With Kyle and Bronco, that is just how it is! When the margin is even or BYU wins it, the Cougars win the game. BYU is +2 on the season right now. If they leave the game +2 or better, they'll be 3-0.
My biggest question heading in to the game: how does BYU respond after that first turnover? Last year, Jake Heaps responded to a fumble by fumbling twice more on the same play...and, as if it were possible, it only went downhill from there!
Usually, I put several "stats" in the Tuesday Tidbits, but I've made my feelings pretty clear: that's the only one that matters this week. Happy Rivalry Week...
A lot has been said about the BYU-Utah game and turnovers. Rightfully so. There's been a lot of stats thrown out by people a lot smarter than I, but here is how I view it as a fan: BYU freezes up when it plays Utah. Generally speaking, Utah plays one of its better games of the season against BYU. So there's a huge psychological barrier for BYU when it faces against the Utes. On the flip side, there is something about playing BYU (lack of athleticism, maybe?), that brings out the best in the Utes. Usually...
When BYU is clearly the better team, they turn it over infrequently but don't force turnovers, even against turnover-prone Ute offenses, and barely beat Utah (and usually in miraculous fashion on the last play of the game or in OT). When Utah is clearly the better team, BYU turns it over at a ridiculous pace and Utah destroys BYU. When it's about 50-50, BYU turns the ball over and Utah wins a close one. Right now, it's not clear that BYU is the better team, but I'd say it's closer to a 60-40 game than it is to 50-50.
2011: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars had a +3 turnover margin. Against Utah, they were -5. BYU gets blown out.
2010: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars were +3. Against Utah, they were -1. BYU loses a close one.
2009: BYU was -1 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were +1. They won the game. Barely.
2008: BYU was +8 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were -6. Blown out.
2007: BYU was -6 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were EVEN. They won the game. Barely.
2006: BYU was +14 the other 12 games. Against Utah, they were EVEN. They won the game. Barely.
2005: BYU was +7 the other 11 games. Against Utah, they were -1. They lost the game. Barely.
Now, Utah's 2008 D was something special. Coached by Gary Andersen and Kyle Whittingham, led by several future NFL players, they were beastly. Max Hall imploded, yes. But Utah helped speed that along, and then capitalized on EVERY bad throw (of which there were many). In the other seasons, however, Utah was, at best, the 3rd best D on BYU's schedule, yet the turnover margin was, almost without fail, worse than the rest of the season. Psychological edge: Utah!
If tradition holds, BYU simply cannot lose the turnover battle and win the game. When Utah wins the turnover battle, the Utes win the game. With Kyle and Bronco, that is just how it is! When the margin is even or BYU wins it, the Cougars win the game. BYU is +2 on the season right now. If they leave the game +2 or better, they'll be 3-0.
My biggest question heading in to the game: how does BYU respond after that first turnover? Last year, Jake Heaps responded to a fumble by fumbling twice more on the same play...and, as if it were possible, it only went downhill from there!
Usually, I put several "stats" in the Tuesday Tidbits, but I've made my feelings pretty clear: that's the only one that matters this week. Happy Rivalry Week...
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Title Contender List Shrinking Rapidly
Several teams jumped off this list with thuds this past weekend. Arkansas, Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin all had losses too big, or to too bad of opponents, to overcome and play for a title.
Louisville is looking very capable of going 12-0 at this juncture as Cincinnati looks like the only other competitive team in the Big East. However, the very reason they have a shot at 12-0 is the very reason they won't get a seat at the big kid table. Tennessee still has no chance to go 12-0. Arizona and UCLA will still be lucky to win 9 games this season, even with their impressive Ws last night: my money is on 7 for Zona and 8 for UCLA. The Colorado and Utah games are looking that much easier for these two improved squads.
I was, as several of you know now, very unimpressed with Notre Dame. They got dominated up front by a Purdue DL that probably ranks 6th or 7th on their schedule. Without the ability to run the ball, a redshirt freshman QB (that they don't trust in the two-minute drill with the game on the line) can't be counted on to spring upsets at Michigan State, Oklahoma, or USC. It might make home games against Michigan, Stanford, and BYU difficult as well.
[On a side note: the gameday experience was incredibly fun. The pre-game experience certainly wasn't "The Grove" at Ole Miss or the everything at Texas, but it was amazing. It was vastly superior to anything in the state of Utah! As far as the actual stadium experience, well, it was reflective of the quality of the team. It's not the fans' fault there was nothing to cheer for!]
So here's that updated list, and note, a lot of these teams are playing road games this week (I suspect we'll be down at about 15 teams going into next week. See, the College Football season IS a playoff already, starting with 32 teams and eliminating about 20 teams the first month, 6 teams during the second month, and the final 4 during the third month and in conference title games):
Alabama (at Arkansas)
BYU (at Utah)
Clemson
Florida (at Tennessee)
Florida State
Georgia
Kansas State
LSU
Michigan State (Notre Dame)
Notre Dame (at Michigan State)
Oklahoma
Oregon
South Carolina
Stanford (hosting USC)
TCU (at Kansas)
Texas (at Ole Miss)
USC (at Stanford)
Virginia Tech (at Pitt, probably no need to mention it!)
West Virginia
The loser of Michigan State/Notre Dame will fall off the list. Stanford will fall off the list if it loses, but USC would still remain in the mix. Between the road games played by Alabama, BYU, Florida, TCU, and Texas, we'll probably see another one or two, maybe even three, teams fall off this week as well, getting upset in road contests. Everybody else is "safe" this week. Matt and I differed at the start of the season on three teams: none of those six combined "stretch" teams is still around. At this point, the biggest stretches on the list are BYU, Florida, and Notre Dame. I have several others that I don't think will end up winning 10 games, but until they lose, they have a chance!
Louisville is looking very capable of going 12-0 at this juncture as Cincinnati looks like the only other competitive team in the Big East. However, the very reason they have a shot at 12-0 is the very reason they won't get a seat at the big kid table. Tennessee still has no chance to go 12-0. Arizona and UCLA will still be lucky to win 9 games this season, even with their impressive Ws last night: my money is on 7 for Zona and 8 for UCLA. The Colorado and Utah games are looking that much easier for these two improved squads.
I was, as several of you know now, very unimpressed with Notre Dame. They got dominated up front by a Purdue DL that probably ranks 6th or 7th on their schedule. Without the ability to run the ball, a redshirt freshman QB (that they don't trust in the two-minute drill with the game on the line) can't be counted on to spring upsets at Michigan State, Oklahoma, or USC. It might make home games against Michigan, Stanford, and BYU difficult as well.
[On a side note: the gameday experience was incredibly fun. The pre-game experience certainly wasn't "The Grove" at Ole Miss or the everything at Texas, but it was amazing. It was vastly superior to anything in the state of Utah! As far as the actual stadium experience, well, it was reflective of the quality of the team. It's not the fans' fault there was nothing to cheer for!]
So here's that updated list, and note, a lot of these teams are playing road games this week (I suspect we'll be down at about 15 teams going into next week. See, the College Football season IS a playoff already, starting with 32 teams and eliminating about 20 teams the first month, 6 teams during the second month, and the final 4 during the third month and in conference title games):
Alabama (at Arkansas)
BYU (at Utah)
Clemson
Florida (at Tennessee)
Florida State
Georgia
Kansas State
LSU
Michigan State (Notre Dame)
Notre Dame (at Michigan State)
Oklahoma
Oregon
South Carolina
Stanford (hosting USC)
TCU (at Kansas)
Texas (at Ole Miss)
USC (at Stanford)
Virginia Tech (at Pitt, probably no need to mention it!)
West Virginia
The loser of Michigan State/Notre Dame will fall off the list. Stanford will fall off the list if it loses, but USC would still remain in the mix. Between the road games played by Alabama, BYU, Florida, TCU, and Texas, we'll probably see another one or two, maybe even three, teams fall off this week as well, getting upset in road contests. Everybody else is "safe" this week. Matt and I differed at the start of the season on three teams: none of those six combined "stretch" teams is still around. At this point, the biggest stretches on the list are BYU, Florida, and Notre Dame. I have several others that I don't think will end up winning 10 games, but until they lose, they have a chance!
Saturday, September 8, 2012
ND Prediction and Utah-USU Thoughts: 9/8/2012
Purdue at Notre Dame
The gameday experience is off the chain here at Notre Dame. And that was just Football Friday. I'll be heading up to campus in the next hour or two to give my kids a look at gameday on campus. Anyway, not much analysis here: Notre Dame has a great defense, minus a green secondary, and has very good offensive players. Purdue (or PurDON'T if you believe a couple of the t-shirts I saw around campus) is going to be improved this year, I think. I suspect the anticipation and excitement of the crowd to be through the roof tonight. After struggling with this decision the entire off-season, I've decided to go all-in for ND 11 games this season. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 14
Utah Trips Up
What an ugly game this was. Utah State will take it. Utah is stuck thinking about what might have been. I suspect that gives Utah more than enough motivation to bring out the big guns next Saturday. The main question becomes: will that help their offense? It couldn't hurt. Utah's D played well last night. I heard rumblings that Chuckie Keeton proved he's the best QB in the state. I saw Utah State with 4 drives that went for more than 20 yards in regulation. Utah State also had 6 drives go through and out or fewer (a turnover before gaining a first down). Chuckie Keeton rose to the big occasions, but it was far from a great OVERALL game for him.
But if Utah had Chuckie Keeton last night, they would have won handily. Utah looked awful on offense. USU certainly showed the key to stopping Utah's O: bring pressure from time to time and don't give up the big plays. Utah didn't mount a drive all night. They relied on a couple of big plays and that was pretty much it. John White only had one rush over 10 yards and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. Other than two or three long pass plays, which were on great plays by WRs and not good (or smart) throws by the QB, Utah did absolutely nothing in the passing game.
I figured that Brian Johnson as OC would cost Utah a game or two this season, but I thought it would be USC and one other Pac 12 game. BJ definitely got outcoached at Utah State. It's not his fault K-Whit promoted him, but he's in over his head: he has no business coaching QBs at a BCS conference school, let alone being the OC. With the pieces he has, his O should not have been as befuddled as they were last night. He has a reasonably solid OL, RT excluded, if he can just get them in the right position to pound the football (i.e. run OUTSIDE from time-to-time). Ute fans certainly wouldn't complain about the RB stable. The WRs and TEs are extremely talented. Wynn looks bad. Hays looks average to almost decent: he's certainly better than he was last season. Wilson looks like he has a ways to go but a lot of that I attribute to youth. BJ's got to figure this out quick or Utah's season might be in serious trouble. BYU is up next, then Arizona State, then USC. Last night: his offense didn't look good enough to compete in any of those three games. The D can keep them in those games, but ultimately it's going to come down to BJ figuring out a way to get points on the board. Fast. I've been beating this drum for a while now: BJ is holding Utah back from being a top 15 team.
The gameday experience is off the chain here at Notre Dame. And that was just Football Friday. I'll be heading up to campus in the next hour or two to give my kids a look at gameday on campus. Anyway, not much analysis here: Notre Dame has a great defense, minus a green secondary, and has very good offensive players. Purdue (or PurDON'T if you believe a couple of the t-shirts I saw around campus) is going to be improved this year, I think. I suspect the anticipation and excitement of the crowd to be through the roof tonight. After struggling with this decision the entire off-season, I've decided to go all-in for ND 11 games this season. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 14
Utah Trips Up
What an ugly game this was. Utah State will take it. Utah is stuck thinking about what might have been. I suspect that gives Utah more than enough motivation to bring out the big guns next Saturday. The main question becomes: will that help their offense? It couldn't hurt. Utah's D played well last night. I heard rumblings that Chuckie Keeton proved he's the best QB in the state. I saw Utah State with 4 drives that went for more than 20 yards in regulation. Utah State also had 6 drives go through and out or fewer (a turnover before gaining a first down). Chuckie Keeton rose to the big occasions, but it was far from a great OVERALL game for him.
But if Utah had Chuckie Keeton last night, they would have won handily. Utah looked awful on offense. USU certainly showed the key to stopping Utah's O: bring pressure from time to time and don't give up the big plays. Utah didn't mount a drive all night. They relied on a couple of big plays and that was pretty much it. John White only had one rush over 10 yards and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. Other than two or three long pass plays, which were on great plays by WRs and not good (or smart) throws by the QB, Utah did absolutely nothing in the passing game.
I figured that Brian Johnson as OC would cost Utah a game or two this season, but I thought it would be USC and one other Pac 12 game. BJ definitely got outcoached at Utah State. It's not his fault K-Whit promoted him, but he's in over his head: he has no business coaching QBs at a BCS conference school, let alone being the OC. With the pieces he has, his O should not have been as befuddled as they were last night. He has a reasonably solid OL, RT excluded, if he can just get them in the right position to pound the football (i.e. run OUTSIDE from time-to-time). Ute fans certainly wouldn't complain about the RB stable. The WRs and TEs are extremely talented. Wynn looks bad. Hays looks average to almost decent: he's certainly better than he was last season. Wilson looks like he has a ways to go but a lot of that I attribute to youth. BJ's got to figure this out quick or Utah's season might be in serious trouble. BYU is up next, then Arizona State, then USC. Last night: his offense didn't look good enough to compete in any of those three games. The D can keep them in those games, but ultimately it's going to come down to BJ figuring out a way to get points on the board. Fast. I've been beating this drum for a while now: BJ is holding Utah back from being a top 15 team.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Utah and BYU Predictions: 9/7/2012
Utah at Utah State
I haven't really changed my tune on this one. I think it'll be a lower-scoring game, bit of a slugfest, with a raucous crowd. I'm willing to give Utah a few more points than I had initially suspected (preseason I had 20-13), but I suspect it'll be close for 2.5 quarters before Utah puts an end to any doubts. For you gamblers out there, I'd take the Under 52.5 and Utah -7. Utah 27, Utah State 13.
Weber State at BYU
Usually, I'll go a little more in-depth, but there's not much reason too. Weber State isn't a bad FCS team, but they aren't a good one either. I'd be shocked if BYU didn't lead by two scores after a quarter and go from there. We will get to see if the Cougars cleaned things up a little bit, but the opponent is a bit outmatched here. I want to see the running game get going: 200+ yards and 4.8 yards/carry. I'd also like to see them mash it in inside the 20. I'd like to see them spread the ball around in the passing game again, with 7 or 8 guys catching passes. With the focus on the running game, particularly in the blue zone, they'll score less than they otherwise could, but I won't change from my preseason prediction on BYU's O.
Defensively, I want to see how good BYU's angles are in space, as they took a couple of bad ones last week, but that's really the only complaint/thing I'm looking for. They should shoot for a shutout, but I don't think they'll get there. The BYU D looked better than I suspected they would in week one and Weber State had struggles against Fresno State on the offensive side of the ball, so I'm taking 10 points away from Weber that I gave them preseason. BYU 44, Weber State 3.
I haven't really changed my tune on this one. I think it'll be a lower-scoring game, bit of a slugfest, with a raucous crowd. I'm willing to give Utah a few more points than I had initially suspected (preseason I had 20-13), but I suspect it'll be close for 2.5 quarters before Utah puts an end to any doubts. For you gamblers out there, I'd take the Under 52.5 and Utah -7. Utah 27, Utah State 13.
Weber State at BYU
Usually, I'll go a little more in-depth, but there's not much reason too. Weber State isn't a bad FCS team, but they aren't a good one either. I'd be shocked if BYU didn't lead by two scores after a quarter and go from there. We will get to see if the Cougars cleaned things up a little bit, but the opponent is a bit outmatched here. I want to see the running game get going: 200+ yards and 4.8 yards/carry. I'd also like to see them mash it in inside the 20. I'd like to see them spread the ball around in the passing game again, with 7 or 8 guys catching passes. With the focus on the running game, particularly in the blue zone, they'll score less than they otherwise could, but I won't change from my preseason prediction on BYU's O.
Defensively, I want to see how good BYU's angles are in space, as they took a couple of bad ones last week, but that's really the only complaint/thing I'm looking for. They should shoot for a shutout, but I don't think they'll get there. The BYU D looked better than I suspected they would in week one and Weber State had struggles against Fresno State on the offensive side of the ball, so I'm taking 10 points away from Weber that I gave them preseason. BYU 44, Weber State 3.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Thursday Thoughts
Rule Changes
I did like the changes in kickoffs, as I highlighted them in my Wednesday Waffle. I didn't notice any major injuries, which was kind of the point.
The rule that I really disliked: having to sit out a play if your helmet comes off. The SEC, obviously, was the first to "exploit" this new rule. I saw Auburn ripping the helmets off several Clemson players on the bottom of crowded piles, where refs can't see well enough to call a penalty, but they can see it well enough to force the player to sit out: they caught QB Tajh Boyd twice. I can see that one is going to get out of control. I am sure Urban Meyer was waiting to pull that one out in a big game at a crucial time. Congrats to the SEC for being the first to find a way to violate the spirit of the law! I know we're all shocked it was them.
9 More Weeks
There is certainly a lot of great football to be played between now and November, but I can't wait for those games on November 10th. Those are the first games played after political ads will stop! Since my wife became a citizen after the last election, she made me watch a lot of each party's conventions these past two weeks. Wow, the fact distortions, lies, and politicking were atrocious in the ads prior to the conventions: and both sides just doubled down the last 10 days. It's going to get ugly. And we'll all be the worse off when we get through, because there will be no winner, regardless. There will be no reconciliation of parties, no forgetting of hurt feelings, and no compromises or bargains to be struck in January. Not to get on a soapbox, but regardless of who wins, I feel America is on the brink of a dark age, where we citizens are to assume the same bickering and incivility as our "leaders" in Washington. Until we fully get there, post-election: enjoy the football!
Games of the Week
I'm obviously the most excited about Weber State at ...er, Purdue at Notre Dame game. I've been given an inside tour of the stadium, including a lunch in the media loge, complete with a pep talk by Digger Phelps, highlighter and all, I've chased my kids around on the field, but this will be my first chance to sit in the stands where college football became college football. Knute Rockne was the first to market the game and make it national. He was years ahead of his time, and thankfully so. The game of college football was made what it is today by what happened in that stadium. I'll be there at the traditional time of 3:30pm Eastern on NBC!
I am interested to see if Georgia is overrated, as they head to Columbia, Missouri to play new conference foe Mizzou. Upset? If Mizzou wins, I think we'll quickly learn it wasn't that big of an upset: Mizzou isn't half-bad, and Georgia is, well, overrated as only Georgia can be. With that said, I still think Georgia wins, but gives up more points than they are accustomed to in the process.
I am also curious to see two ranked Big Ten teams on the road at unranked Pac 12 teams. Wisconsin plays at Oregon State and Nebraska is at UCLA. I feel there will be at least one upset between the two, and my money would be on UCLA. How did the Pac 12 manage to get TWO Big Ten teams to leave the comfort of their home stadiums and MAC opponents???
Utah travels to Utah State for the last time ever, unfortunately. Their rivalry with the Aggies is another victim of the Utes joining the Pac 12. Certainly you can't blame Utah for not traveling to Logan every now and again for a game, but it's unfortunate. The Pac 12 snobbish attitude Utah and BYU despised for so long is prevalent in Salt Lake. The arrogance of Independent ND that non-BCS teams hated for so long has taken over Provo as well. I'm excited to see the game, but I'm sad to see it end. Good luck, Aggies: Utah and BYU will not stand by you anymore, you are on your own. Make the best of it.
Those are my thoughts for this Thursday...a little late...
I did like the changes in kickoffs, as I highlighted them in my Wednesday Waffle. I didn't notice any major injuries, which was kind of the point.
The rule that I really disliked: having to sit out a play if your helmet comes off. The SEC, obviously, was the first to "exploit" this new rule. I saw Auburn ripping the helmets off several Clemson players on the bottom of crowded piles, where refs can't see well enough to call a penalty, but they can see it well enough to force the player to sit out: they caught QB Tajh Boyd twice. I can see that one is going to get out of control. I am sure Urban Meyer was waiting to pull that one out in a big game at a crucial time. Congrats to the SEC for being the first to find a way to violate the spirit of the law! I know we're all shocked it was them.
9 More Weeks
There is certainly a lot of great football to be played between now and November, but I can't wait for those games on November 10th. Those are the first games played after political ads will stop! Since my wife became a citizen after the last election, she made me watch a lot of each party's conventions these past two weeks. Wow, the fact distortions, lies, and politicking were atrocious in the ads prior to the conventions: and both sides just doubled down the last 10 days. It's going to get ugly. And we'll all be the worse off when we get through, because there will be no winner, regardless. There will be no reconciliation of parties, no forgetting of hurt feelings, and no compromises or bargains to be struck in January. Not to get on a soapbox, but regardless of who wins, I feel America is on the brink of a dark age, where we citizens are to assume the same bickering and incivility as our "leaders" in Washington. Until we fully get there, post-election: enjoy the football!
Games of the Week
I'm obviously the most excited about Weber State at ...er, Purdue at Notre Dame game. I've been given an inside tour of the stadium, including a lunch in the media loge, complete with a pep talk by Digger Phelps, highlighter and all, I've chased my kids around on the field, but this will be my first chance to sit in the stands where college football became college football. Knute Rockne was the first to market the game and make it national. He was years ahead of his time, and thankfully so. The game of college football was made what it is today by what happened in that stadium. I'll be there at the traditional time of 3:30pm Eastern on NBC!
I am interested to see if Georgia is overrated, as they head to Columbia, Missouri to play new conference foe Mizzou. Upset? If Mizzou wins, I think we'll quickly learn it wasn't that big of an upset: Mizzou isn't half-bad, and Georgia is, well, overrated as only Georgia can be. With that said, I still think Georgia wins, but gives up more points than they are accustomed to in the process.
I am also curious to see two ranked Big Ten teams on the road at unranked Pac 12 teams. Wisconsin plays at Oregon State and Nebraska is at UCLA. I feel there will be at least one upset between the two, and my money would be on UCLA. How did the Pac 12 manage to get TWO Big Ten teams to leave the comfort of their home stadiums and MAC opponents???
Utah travels to Utah State for the last time ever, unfortunately. Their rivalry with the Aggies is another victim of the Utes joining the Pac 12. Certainly you can't blame Utah for not traveling to Logan every now and again for a game, but it's unfortunate. The Pac 12 snobbish attitude Utah and BYU despised for so long is prevalent in Salt Lake. The arrogance of Independent ND that non-BCS teams hated for so long has taken over Provo as well. I'm excited to see the game, but I'm sad to see it end. Good luck, Aggies: Utah and BYU will not stand by you anymore, you are on your own. Make the best of it.
Those are my thoughts for this Thursday...a little late...
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Counting Down Title Contenders
Teams eliminated: Boise State, Cal, Georgia Tech, Michigan (not enough tough games on the schedule to overcome their loss, they fell a LONG way).
Next week, or the week after, I will rank these teams and divide them into appropriate categories, but I thought I'd wait until the list shrinks a little more before putting too much time into the list. I'd be shocked if we didn't lose 4 more teams this week, with potential to be down below 15 by the end of September.
I realize there are serious stretches still on the list, but until those teams lose, they still have a chance. I included every team that had any chance to go undefeated that would be in serious discussions to play for the title if undefeated, and, in some cases, with one loss. It was in no way a prediction of how anyone would do. I just wanted to include anyone that had any realistic chance at an undefeated season. Personally, I think it comes down to SEC Champ vs. whoever has the undefeated conference champion between Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten.
My initial thoughts would be Bama vs. OU, in case anyone wanted a prediction. LSU travels to Florida and Arkansas but hosts Alabama and South Carolina. 1 loss should be fine for them as long as they beat Alabama and the loss is on the road. However, Bama will only play three ranked teams all season, including Michigan, so they can pretty much gear up for LSU once they take care of Arkansas next weekend. For all the talk of how tough the SEC is week in and week out, Bama shows how wrong that is. In the non-conference, they got an overrated Michigan (not in hindsight, I've told many of you I was cheering for Bama to expose Michigan as the fraud that they are), followed by games against Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and Western Carolina (FCS). Playing at Arkansas is very difficult, no question. Beyond that: Ole Miss, at Mizzou, at Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn. No top ten team would cower at the week-in and week-out of that schedule. For those counting, yes, that's only four road games, all forced by the SEC in conference play.
Oklahoma has a TOUGH Big XII slate. I put OU's schedule up against LSU's and say they're pretty darn even. The toughest four games are pretty even, with a slight edge to LSU simply b/c there's only one Alabama in the country, and OU doesn't play them. However, OU's 5th and 6th games are stronger in my opinion. Certainly OU's road is much tougher than Bama's: ND will beat Michigan and OU will destroy ND, using the incompatible-to-this-situation transitive property, Bama blew out a nobody team last weekend. Oregon is probably better than USC, but the Ducks have to play that regular season game on the road, and probably the Pac 12 Championship game in LA as well. However, I don't trust either team/coach to beat the other twice.
Alabama
Arkansas
BYU
Clemson
Florida (at Texas A&M)
Florida State
Georgia (at Missouri, who should be on this list, I suppose)
Kansas State (hosting Miami in an elimination game!)
LSU (hosting UW)
Miami (at Kansas State)
Michigan State
Nebraska (at UCLA)
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (at Arizona)
Oregon
South Carolina
Stanford
TCU
Texas
USC
Utah (at Utah State Friday night on ESPN2)
Virginia Tech
Washington (at LSU)
West Virginia
Wisconsin (at Oregon State)
Next week, or the week after, I will rank these teams and divide them into appropriate categories, but I thought I'd wait until the list shrinks a little more before putting too much time into the list. I'd be shocked if we didn't lose 4 more teams this week, with potential to be down below 15 by the end of September.
I realize there are serious stretches still on the list, but until those teams lose, they still have a chance. I included every team that had any chance to go undefeated that would be in serious discussions to play for the title if undefeated, and, in some cases, with one loss. It was in no way a prediction of how anyone would do. I just wanted to include anyone that had any realistic chance at an undefeated season. Personally, I think it comes down to SEC Champ vs. whoever has the undefeated conference champion between Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten.
My initial thoughts would be Bama vs. OU, in case anyone wanted a prediction. LSU travels to Florida and Arkansas but hosts Alabama and South Carolina. 1 loss should be fine for them as long as they beat Alabama and the loss is on the road. However, Bama will only play three ranked teams all season, including Michigan, so they can pretty much gear up for LSU once they take care of Arkansas next weekend. For all the talk of how tough the SEC is week in and week out, Bama shows how wrong that is. In the non-conference, they got an overrated Michigan (not in hindsight, I've told many of you I was cheering for Bama to expose Michigan as the fraud that they are), followed by games against Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and Western Carolina (FCS). Playing at Arkansas is very difficult, no question. Beyond that: Ole Miss, at Mizzou, at Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn. No top ten team would cower at the week-in and week-out of that schedule. For those counting, yes, that's only four road games, all forced by the SEC in conference play.
Oklahoma has a TOUGH Big XII slate. I put OU's schedule up against LSU's and say they're pretty darn even. The toughest four games are pretty even, with a slight edge to LSU simply b/c there's only one Alabama in the country, and OU doesn't play them. However, OU's 5th and 6th games are stronger in my opinion. Certainly OU's road is much tougher than Bama's: ND will beat Michigan and OU will destroy ND, using the incompatible-to-this-situation transitive property, Bama blew out a nobody team last weekend. Oregon is probably better than USC, but the Ducks have to play that regular season game on the road, and probably the Pac 12 Championship game in LA as well. However, I don't trust either team/coach to beat the other twice.
Alabama
Arkansas
BYU
Clemson
Florida (at Texas A&M)
Florida State
Georgia (at Missouri, who should be on this list, I suppose)
Kansas State (hosting Miami in an elimination game!)
LSU (hosting UW)
Miami (at Kansas State)
Michigan State
Nebraska (at UCLA)
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (at Arizona)
Oregon
South Carolina
Stanford
TCU
Texas
USC
Utah (at Utah State Friday night on ESPN2)
Virginia Tech
Washington (at LSU)
West Virginia
Wisconsin (at Oregon State)
Wednesday Waffle, 9/5/2012
One of the rule changes put forward by the NCAA this offeseason was to move kickoffs up from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line. Given those changes, most D-I kickers with any kind of skills, including both of BYU's kickoff guys, should be able to get a touchback on each and every kickoff should they choose to. To counterbalance the move, however, the NCAA stated that touchbacks on kickoffs would result in the opponent getting the ball at the 25-yard line instead of the 20.
BYU had 7 kickoffs. It was very clear, the strategy was to kick it higher but shorter and trust the kick coverage team to pin the opponent inside the 25, therefore improving the field position from a touchback. 5 of the kicks never reached the end zone. The 2 that did were fielded on the goalline.
The four kickoffs in the first half all were non-touchbacks. BYU also managed to hold Washington State inside the 25 on each occasion, including twice inside the 20. However, coming out of the locker room in the second half, BYU allowed Washington State a 65-yard return to the BYU 35. The next kick was returned to the 27. The final kickoff was attempted by Justin Sorensen, who got a touchback in his first kickoff of the season.
So, what I'm waffling on is whether BYU should have Sorensen put it out of the back of the end zone, or if they should continue to allow kickoff returns. Clearly, BYU has the depth and talent on this team to put a good kickoff coverage team out there. However, in a game that BYU had complete control of, they left the door open with a big kickoff return. Several teams on the schedule have the ability to walk through that door and take advantage where Wazzou failed. Should BYU trust their kick coverage team, or should they trust that nobody will consistently march 75 yards on their D?
BYU had 7 kickoffs. It was very clear, the strategy was to kick it higher but shorter and trust the kick coverage team to pin the opponent inside the 25, therefore improving the field position from a touchback. 5 of the kicks never reached the end zone. The 2 that did were fielded on the goalline.
The four kickoffs in the first half all were non-touchbacks. BYU also managed to hold Washington State inside the 25 on each occasion, including twice inside the 20. However, coming out of the locker room in the second half, BYU allowed Washington State a 65-yard return to the BYU 35. The next kick was returned to the 27. The final kickoff was attempted by Justin Sorensen, who got a touchback in his first kickoff of the season.
So, what I'm waffling on is whether BYU should have Sorensen put it out of the back of the end zone, or if they should continue to allow kickoff returns. Clearly, BYU has the depth and talent on this team to put a good kickoff coverage team out there. However, in a game that BYU had complete control of, they left the door open with a big kickoff return. Several teams on the schedule have the ability to walk through that door and take advantage where Wazzou failed. Should BYU trust their kick coverage team, or should they trust that nobody will consistently march 75 yards on their D?
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Tuesday Tidbits, 9/4/2012
Movement in the Polls
Many BYU fans were upset that BYU didn't jump into the polls after a dominating performance against Washington State. First off, Washington State lost 7 games over the past two seasons by 20+ points. So this isn't a big deal. Secondly, BYU's offense attempted 4 FGs in the red zone and missed one. It required a 4th down "trick" wildcat play with a 3rd string QB to score one of BYU's two red zone TDs. BYU's defense was dominant, yes, but the O didn't exactly look like a top 25 unit. And that was against what will statistically be one of the worst defenses in the country this season.
Balance
Here is a breakdown of BYU's play calls by down:
1st Down: 64.7% Rush/35.3% Pass
2nd Down: 29.6% Rush/70.4% Pass
3rd Down: 41.2% Rush/58.8% Pass
BYU was run-heavy on 1st down, pass-heavy on 2nd down. They were more balanced on 3rd down. Some might argue that it was situational and that would explain the run-heavy or pass-heavy (though it's always 1st and down unless a team is inside the 10 or gets a penalty). Here is a breakdown by situation:
2nd and 7 or shorter: 40.0% Rush/60.0% Pass
2nd and 8 or longer: 16.7% Rush/83.3% Pass
3rd and 4 or shorter: 83.3% Rush/16.7% Pass
3rd and 5 or longer: 18.2% Rush/81.8% Pass
1st Down in Red Zone: 66.7% Rush/33.3% Pass
2nd Down in Red Zone: 50%
3rd Down in Red Zone: 50%
2nd down was still pass heavy, even when BYU gained 3 or more yards on 1st down (in "announcer speak" they were ahead of the chains). BYU only converted one third down on a called running play to a RB. BYU was 20% on 3rd and short when running the ball The other 9 conversions were on passes, or called passing plays where Nelson scrambled for a first down.
What does that mean? Well, first off, BYU is balanced but skewed. They need to throw more on 1st down and pass more on 2nd down, if for no other reason, the O needs to keep teams guessing. Second, BYU was unable, against an average-to-mediocre defensive front, to move the ball in crucial situations. The slimmed-down OL that is supposed to be improved in its run-blocking was not against the Crimson Cougars. If it could not gain yardage in critical situations against Washington State, how will it perform on the road, or against Utah's or Notre Dame's vastly superior front 7s? Doman's got to pick it up on the calls, and the OL does too on the blocking side!
Balance, Part Two
BYU is typically known for throwing the ball all over the field. John Beck routinely completed passes to 7-10 people during a typical game. Riley was on the low end, but still, 7 BYU players caught passes, with only one of those being a RB. I figure that number will increase in the coming games, as I know Doman wants to get the RBs involved. Given that I questioned the depth of the WRs and TEs prior to the season, 7 was a good number to see in game one, especially with Skyler Ridley and Austin Holt getting involved. I suspect that number will reach 10 this Saturday.
The other part of balance here: 7 different players on BYU had rushing attempts. That only tends to happen against FCS opponents. Perhaps there is more diversity to the running game than I have previously given credit for. I don't imagine BYU will continuously hit 7 different players getting rushes. I think 5 would be "balanced" enough going forward.
Thus concludes my random statistical analyses after Week One! Anything you all are curious about but too lazy to research??? I'll be happy to "track" it next week!
Many BYU fans were upset that BYU didn't jump into the polls after a dominating performance against Washington State. First off, Washington State lost 7 games over the past two seasons by 20+ points. So this isn't a big deal. Secondly, BYU's offense attempted 4 FGs in the red zone and missed one. It required a 4th down "trick" wildcat play with a 3rd string QB to score one of BYU's two red zone TDs. BYU's defense was dominant, yes, but the O didn't exactly look like a top 25 unit. And that was against what will statistically be one of the worst defenses in the country this season.
Balance
Here is a breakdown of BYU's play calls by down:
1st Down: 64.7% Rush/35.3% Pass
2nd Down: 29.6% Rush/70.4% Pass
3rd Down: 41.2% Rush/58.8% Pass
BYU was run-heavy on 1st down, pass-heavy on 2nd down. They were more balanced on 3rd down. Some might argue that it was situational and that would explain the run-heavy or pass-heavy (though it's always 1st and down unless a team is inside the 10 or gets a penalty). Here is a breakdown by situation:
2nd and 7 or shorter: 40.0% Rush/60.0% Pass
2nd and 8 or longer: 16.7% Rush/83.3% Pass
3rd and 4 or shorter: 83.3% Rush/16.7% Pass
3rd and 5 or longer: 18.2% Rush/81.8% Pass
1st Down in Red Zone: 66.7% Rush/33.3% Pass
2nd Down in Red Zone: 50%
3rd Down in Red Zone: 50%
2nd down was still pass heavy, even when BYU gained 3 or more yards on 1st down (in "announcer speak" they were ahead of the chains). BYU only converted one third down on a called running play to a RB. BYU was 20% on 3rd and short when running the ball The other 9 conversions were on passes, or called passing plays where Nelson scrambled for a first down.
What does that mean? Well, first off, BYU is balanced but skewed. They need to throw more on 1st down and pass more on 2nd down, if for no other reason, the O needs to keep teams guessing. Second, BYU was unable, against an average-to-mediocre defensive front, to move the ball in crucial situations. The slimmed-down OL that is supposed to be improved in its run-blocking was not against the Crimson Cougars. If it could not gain yardage in critical situations against Washington State, how will it perform on the road, or against Utah's or Notre Dame's vastly superior front 7s? Doman's got to pick it up on the calls, and the OL does too on the blocking side!
Balance, Part Two
BYU is typically known for throwing the ball all over the field. John Beck routinely completed passes to 7-10 people during a typical game. Riley was on the low end, but still, 7 BYU players caught passes, with only one of those being a RB. I figure that number will increase in the coming games, as I know Doman wants to get the RBs involved. Given that I questioned the depth of the WRs and TEs prior to the season, 7 was a good number to see in game one, especially with Skyler Ridley and Austin Holt getting involved. I suspect that number will reach 10 this Saturday.
The other part of balance here: 7 different players on BYU had rushing attempts. That only tends to happen against FCS opponents. Perhaps there is more diversity to the running game than I have previously given credit for. I don't imagine BYU will continuously hit 7 different players getting rushes. I think 5 would be "balanced" enough going forward.
Thus concludes my random statistical analyses after Week One! Anything you all are curious about but too lazy to research??? I'll be happy to "track" it next week!
Matt's Thoughts on CU Loss (followed by mine)
Man, what a crushing loss that was…I mean I didn’t expect us to look perfect, but there really was no reason to lose that game. Props to McElwain for coaching a good game and having his boys fired up to play. We were dominating before HT until that stupid dropped punt cost us 6 points, and we lost by 5 so there’s the difference really…our OL (really the RG) looked awful, and I’m afraid we might be in for a long season…
I watched a lot of this game: special teams were bad and the OL was awful. It seems pretty clear now why people were so down on CU coming into this season. The game of football really begins up front and CU's OL looked pretty bad. The QB play was average. There is a little bit of talent at the skill positions, but WRs can't be dropping so many balls.
The DL was solid, as were the LBs, and those two units held CSU in check most of the game. CU needs to start and finish quarters stronger. This is something BYU fans can attest to. The first 5 minutes and last 5 minutes of both halves were enough to do CU in. It gets easier the next game or two, but it's very apparent CU will struggle to make a bowl game this season.
I watched a lot of this game: special teams were bad and the OL was awful. It seems pretty clear now why people were so down on CU coming into this season. The game of football really begins up front and CU's OL looked pretty bad. The QB play was average. There is a little bit of talent at the skill positions, but WRs can't be dropping so many balls.
The DL was solid, as were the LBs, and those two units held CSU in check most of the game. CU needs to start and finish quarters stronger. This is something BYU fans can attest to. The first 5 minutes and last 5 minutes of both halves were enough to do CU in. It gets easier the next game or two, but it's very apparent CU will struggle to make a bowl game this season.
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