Army has accepted an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl. The web site's own description of how it chooses its teams is incorrect. The New Mexico and Armed Forces Bowls are allowed to work in conjunction with each other to create the most intriguing matchups. So, the Armed Forces can select a non-MWC team (Army), provided that all bowl-eligible MWC teams can attend an MWC-affiliated bowl. That essentially seals the deal: Utah to Vegas, SDSU to Poinsettia, Air Force to Independence, BYU to New Mexico.
BYU will likely face Fresno State in the bowl game. Interesting sub-plot to that game: Fresno State left the WAC for the MWC, leaving BYU nowhere to go after a secret accord had been struck with the WAC. Now they meet. On the field. OK, so that storyline doesn't really interest me, but I'm sure we'll hear plenty of it in the lead-up to the game. The game is at 12pm Mountain, on ESPN, on Saturday, December 18th. Wow, a bowl game a full week before Christmas...that is EARLY!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Fourteen
BYU Crossing the 50
All season I have been tracking BYU's ability to finish drives. After several successful games in a row, in terms of percentage, BYU took a step backwards at getting points when crossing the 50. Granted, New Mexico, CSU, UNLV, and Wyoming's defenses are not Utah's. Playing at Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake against Utah is nothing like playing at home or at CSU.
BYU had 7 possessions on the other side of the 50 and ended up with 16 points. BYU needs to get that turned around in their bowl game to have a chance at a winning season. They are going to playing a decent C-USA team (probably SMU or UCF) or else Fresno State. They will probably need more than 2.29 points/possession on the right side of the 50.
On a side note, if BYU wins their bowl game, it will be their 4th consecutive winning season, and 5th straight non-losing season. Their streak is as follows, from most recent to least recent: 11-2, 10-3, 11-2, 11-2, and 6-6.
The Texas Factor
Texas lost 5 games at home this season, with a 2-5 record at home. 2007 was the last time they lost even a single game at home (Kansas State). In 2006, they lost to Ohio State. In 2003, they lost to Arkansas. In 1999, they lost to NC State and Kansas State. In 1997, they lost to Colorado and Texas Tech. Blah, blah, blah. 1989 was the last time Texas lost 3 home games. 1956 is the only other time in the history of Texas football they lost 5 home games (they were 0-5 that season at home, which immediately preceded the hiring of Darrell K. Royal, which name might sound familiar: they did name the stadium after him).
This was obviously a down year for Texas Longhorn football. So how down was it? Well, I looked back at the 7 home losses they had from 1997 to 2009. Never did a team beat them in Austin and DROP in the AP rankings like Texas A&M did this weekend. After beating their hated rivals on Thanksgiving weekend, they dropped from 18th to 19th. That is absolutely incredible. BYU fans sure hope that a win in Austin next year is 1) possible and 2) not detrimental to their ranking.
2012 MWC vs. 2012 Big East
With TCU jumping off the MWC ship for the Big East in 2012, I thought I'd compare the two conferences side-by-side, top-to-bottom (excluding TCU). I will write this piece later in the week, or perhaps between the end of the regular season and the bowl games. Please correct me where you think I am wrong.
I think the 2012 MWC programs are currently in this order:
Boise State
Nevada
Air Force
Hawaii (if an MWC member by 2012)
San Diego State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
I think the Big East programs are currently in this order:
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Connecticut
Syracuse
UCF (if a Big East member by 2012)
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Villanova (if a Big East member by 2012)
Remember that these are my opinions on the states of the programs, not necessarily where they are at currently in the standings. Please comment (or e-mail me at moknowssports@gmail.com) with how you think I should order them for my head-to-head comparison.
All season I have been tracking BYU's ability to finish drives. After several successful games in a row, in terms of percentage, BYU took a step backwards at getting points when crossing the 50. Granted, New Mexico, CSU, UNLV, and Wyoming's defenses are not Utah's. Playing at Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake against Utah is nothing like playing at home or at CSU.
BYU had 7 possessions on the other side of the 50 and ended up with 16 points. BYU needs to get that turned around in their bowl game to have a chance at a winning season. They are going to playing a decent C-USA team (probably SMU or UCF) or else Fresno State. They will probably need more than 2.29 points/possession on the right side of the 50.
On a side note, if BYU wins their bowl game, it will be their 4th consecutive winning season, and 5th straight non-losing season. Their streak is as follows, from most recent to least recent: 11-2, 10-3, 11-2, 11-2, and 6-6.
The Texas Factor
Texas lost 5 games at home this season, with a 2-5 record at home. 2007 was the last time they lost even a single game at home (Kansas State). In 2006, they lost to Ohio State. In 2003, they lost to Arkansas. In 1999, they lost to NC State and Kansas State. In 1997, they lost to Colorado and Texas Tech. Blah, blah, blah. 1989 was the last time Texas lost 3 home games. 1956 is the only other time in the history of Texas football they lost 5 home games (they were 0-5 that season at home, which immediately preceded the hiring of Darrell K. Royal, which name might sound familiar: they did name the stadium after him).
This was obviously a down year for Texas Longhorn football. So how down was it? Well, I looked back at the 7 home losses they had from 1997 to 2009. Never did a team beat them in Austin and DROP in the AP rankings like Texas A&M did this weekend. After beating their hated rivals on Thanksgiving weekend, they dropped from 18th to 19th. That is absolutely incredible. BYU fans sure hope that a win in Austin next year is 1) possible and 2) not detrimental to their ranking.
2012 MWC vs. 2012 Big East
With TCU jumping off the MWC ship for the Big East in 2012, I thought I'd compare the two conferences side-by-side, top-to-bottom (excluding TCU). I will write this piece later in the week, or perhaps between the end of the regular season and the bowl games. Please correct me where you think I am wrong.
I think the 2012 MWC programs are currently in this order:
Boise State
Nevada
Air Force
Hawaii (if an MWC member by 2012)
San Diego State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
I think the Big East programs are currently in this order:
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Connecticut
Syracuse
UCF (if a Big East member by 2012)
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Villanova (if a Big East member by 2012)
Remember that these are my opinions on the states of the programs, not necessarily where they are at currently in the standings. Please comment (or e-mail me at moknowssports@gmail.com) with how you think I should order them for my head-to-head comparison.
Dominoes Continue to Fall
If you can't beat them on the field, ask them to join you (and offer them more money). TCU joining the Big East is the latest, and perhaps last for a while, domino to fall in conference expansion. It follows the plan that I had set out earlier this year: add a few non-BCS teams to BCS conferences instead of adding a new BCS conference. When the BCS announced the automatic qualifying formula in May, it became clear that the MWC was ahead of the Big East, and may have even passed the ACC. So the Pac 10 takes Utah. The MWC counters by adding Boise State. ESPN helps BYU on the path to independence. The Big East takes TCU. The MWC is now a shell of its former self.
It will be a better conference for Boise State than the WAC was. However, it is nowhere near a BCS conference. Take the top 3 programs out: BYU, TCU, and Utah. Add 3 other programs: Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. The top 3 is definitely weaker. The top 3 now is: Boise State, Air Force, and either SDSU, Nevada, or Fresno State, depending on who is having the better year. That is nowhere near as good as the "Big 3." The WAC middle and bottom was far worse than the MWC ever was, so any comparisons between the two are made by ill-informed, generalistic (BCS) homers. Even this weakened MWC is a big improvement over the WAC that Boise State dominated over the past 5 years. I will show an actual comparison later this week, or after the regular season ends before the bowls begin to highlight the difference.
I think it is now even more likely that the MWC reaches out to Hawaii. That would make the league very balanced, with 6 programs that are all in good places right now, and 4 that have had struggles recently, though 3 of the 4 have had their moments in the past 5 years as well (UNLV being the lone team that has been consistently horrendous. CSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming may be in bad spots right now, but they have the potential to rise above the bottom). Advancing to a 12-team league is now no longer a possibility. Even if Utah State was an attractive option to try to remain in the Utah market, it would be tough to talk Houston out of Conference USA, and I don't see any other viable options.
The funny thing is: the MWC and the Big East are almost twins in football now. First off, there is a huge geographic distance between the schools (Fort Worth to Connecticut vs. Hawaii to Laramie). There is one program clearly at the top (TCU for the Big East and Boise State for the MWC), a bunch of programs in the middle, and 3 or 4 programs that rotate between poor and mostly mediocre. Maybe the MWC is a BCS conference after all...
It will be a better conference for Boise State than the WAC was. However, it is nowhere near a BCS conference. Take the top 3 programs out: BYU, TCU, and Utah. Add 3 other programs: Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. The top 3 is definitely weaker. The top 3 now is: Boise State, Air Force, and either SDSU, Nevada, or Fresno State, depending on who is having the better year. That is nowhere near as good as the "Big 3." The WAC middle and bottom was far worse than the MWC ever was, so any comparisons between the two are made by ill-informed, generalistic (BCS) homers. Even this weakened MWC is a big improvement over the WAC that Boise State dominated over the past 5 years. I will show an actual comparison later this week, or after the regular season ends before the bowls begin to highlight the difference.
I think it is now even more likely that the MWC reaches out to Hawaii. That would make the league very balanced, with 6 programs that are all in good places right now, and 4 that have had struggles recently, though 3 of the 4 have had their moments in the past 5 years as well (UNLV being the lone team that has been consistently horrendous. CSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming may be in bad spots right now, but they have the potential to rise above the bottom). Advancing to a 12-team league is now no longer a possibility. Even if Utah State was an attractive option to try to remain in the Utah market, it would be tough to talk Houston out of Conference USA, and I don't see any other viable options.
The funny thing is: the MWC and the Big East are almost twins in football now. First off, there is a huge geographic distance between the schools (Fort Worth to Connecticut vs. Hawaii to Laramie). There is one program clearly at the top (TCU for the Big East and Boise State for the MWC), a bunch of programs in the middle, and 3 or 4 programs that rotate between poor and mostly mediocre. Maybe the MWC is a BCS conference after all...
Sunday, November 28, 2010
MWC Bowls, 2010 Week Thirteen
Well, this weekend pretty well set the MWC bowl teams, at least from the MWC side.
TCU will go to a BCS game.
Utah will go to Vegas.
San Diego State will go to the Poinsettia.
Air Force will go to the Independence.
BYU will go to the Armed Forces.
The MWC will not fill its New Mexico Bowl slot.
The possible opponents, in most cases, are starting to settle finally, with just a few yet to be decided.
If TCU goes to the Rose Bowl, it will be against Wisconsin. If it goes to the National Championship game, I think that would mean Auburn lost and they play Oregon. They could win against any of those 3 potential opponents, and wouldn't get blown out by any of them (except maybe Oregon) like some pundits would tell you.
Utah would normally play a Pac 10 team in Vegas, but the Vegas Bowl is too far down the list and the Pac 10 is short of teams to qualify. They will likely get a mid-level MAC team. The MAC has 6 bowl-eligible teams and only 3 bowl tie-ins. Vegas will likely get one of the three 8-4 teams (Ohio, Temple, or Toledo). Utah should win, if they are motivated enough against such a crummy opponent. Their bowl streak says enough that they will be motivated.
San Diego State will play Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. They beat a better Air Force team on the same field already this season, so they could beat Navy.
Air Force will draw one of the 6-6 ACC teams, Clemson or Georgia Tech. I would be more interested in Georgia Tech to watch the option offenses square off, but that might be a little too boring (and the game over too quickly) for the bowl game to select that matchup. Clemson played in the Independence once in 1985. Georgia Tech has never played in the Shreveport, LA bowl game. Air Force would have a good chance against either.
BYU will play either SMU or UCF. The winner of the Conference USA game is tied to the Liberty Bowl. The loser would likely be Armed Forces Bowl-bound. Traditional wisdom would say that UCF will beat SMU in the C-USA championship (though SMU has won 2 in a row and 3 out of 4). If that is the case, BYU-SMU would rematch exactly 30 years after "The Miracle Bowl." While the game would be played at SMU's home stadium, BYU could beat them given the way they have performed of late. BYU does host UCF next season, so that would be a nice preview of that game! Either way, BYU could win.
The New Mexico Bowl will likely get one of the other 8-4 MAC teams to face off against Fresno State, the 4th place WAC team.
The MWC would have a great shot to go 5-0 in their bowl games. Anything less than 3-2 would be a major disappointment. I would predict, without knowing the matchups with any certainty, that they will be 4-1, but I'll get a bit more definitive once I see the actual matchups (and once we know if Hoke will coach SDSU in their bowl game or not), instead of my predicted ones.
Next year, the MWC will only have 8 teams, 4 of which are CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, and Wyoming. If they send a team to a BCS game, they will only have enough teams for 3 of their 5 slots: both the Armed Forces and New Mexico slots will go unfilled.
TCU will go to a BCS game.
Utah will go to Vegas.
San Diego State will go to the Poinsettia.
Air Force will go to the Independence.
BYU will go to the Armed Forces.
The MWC will not fill its New Mexico Bowl slot.
The possible opponents, in most cases, are starting to settle finally, with just a few yet to be decided.
If TCU goes to the Rose Bowl, it will be against Wisconsin. If it goes to the National Championship game, I think that would mean Auburn lost and they play Oregon. They could win against any of those 3 potential opponents, and wouldn't get blown out by any of them (except maybe Oregon) like some pundits would tell you.
Utah would normally play a Pac 10 team in Vegas, but the Vegas Bowl is too far down the list and the Pac 10 is short of teams to qualify. They will likely get a mid-level MAC team. The MAC has 6 bowl-eligible teams and only 3 bowl tie-ins. Vegas will likely get one of the three 8-4 teams (Ohio, Temple, or Toledo). Utah should win, if they are motivated enough against such a crummy opponent. Their bowl streak says enough that they will be motivated.
San Diego State will play Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. They beat a better Air Force team on the same field already this season, so they could beat Navy.
Air Force will draw one of the 6-6 ACC teams, Clemson or Georgia Tech. I would be more interested in Georgia Tech to watch the option offenses square off, but that might be a little too boring (and the game over too quickly) for the bowl game to select that matchup. Clemson played in the Independence once in 1985. Georgia Tech has never played in the Shreveport, LA bowl game. Air Force would have a good chance against either.
BYU will play either SMU or UCF. The winner of the Conference USA game is tied to the Liberty Bowl. The loser would likely be Armed Forces Bowl-bound. Traditional wisdom would say that UCF will beat SMU in the C-USA championship (though SMU has won 2 in a row and 3 out of 4). If that is the case, BYU-SMU would rematch exactly 30 years after "The Miracle Bowl." While the game would be played at SMU's home stadium, BYU could beat them given the way they have performed of late. BYU does host UCF next season, so that would be a nice preview of that game! Either way, BYU could win.
The New Mexico Bowl will likely get one of the other 8-4 MAC teams to face off against Fresno State, the 4th place WAC team.
The MWC would have a great shot to go 5-0 in their bowl games. Anything less than 3-2 would be a major disappointment. I would predict, without knowing the matchups with any certainty, that they will be 4-1, but I'll get a bit more definitive once I see the actual matchups (and once we know if Hoke will coach SDSU in their bowl game or not), instead of my predicted ones.
Next year, the MWC will only have 8 teams, 4 of which are CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, and Wyoming. If they send a team to a BCS game, they will only have enough teams for 3 of their 5 slots: both the Armed Forces and New Mexico slots will go unfilled.
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Thirteen
I said: TCU 45, New Mexico 3
Actual: TCU 66, New Mexico 17
Note: Thanks to Boise State's loss, this win seals the spectacular for TCU. They will receive an invite to the Rose Bowl at the very least, and possibly even the National Championship game. A few years back, this would never have been thought possible: the Rose Bowl would never have done that and no non-BCS team would have the schedule to get there (I don't believe TCU had it, but given that there are no other unbeatens, they might have a good enough one to get there). In the preseason I thought TCU would drop a game this year, either SMU, Baylor, or Oregon State, but they survived all 3 of those games and went 12-0. Good for them. Back-to-back 1-11 seasons for New Mexico: not much good to say about that one.
I said: SDSU 41, UNLV 17
Actual: SDSU 48, UNLV 14
Note: UNLV still has one more loss on the schedule at Hawaii, so they get to finish with 11 losses as well. Bad year. SDSU finished 8-4, with all four losses being by single-digits, three of them on the road. If Hoke sticks around for another year (highly doubtful in my opinion), next year they have a real shot at getting what by now is nearly an annual BCS bid for a non-AQ. TCU and Boise State will be rebuilding somewhat. I would venture to say that a 10-2 MWC Champion will probably be in the top 16 in the Final BCS Standings and be really close to earning an automatic BCS bid. An 11-1 team would almost certainly be in the top 12 and get it automatically. SDSU could be that team. The "big if" being if Hoke stays around...
By my count, that's 52-8 on the season for MWC schools not named BYU (with BYU I went a less-than-stellar 7-5, but they had a less-than-stellar 6-6 season, so it's about even).
Actual: TCU 66, New Mexico 17
Note: Thanks to Boise State's loss, this win seals the spectacular for TCU. They will receive an invite to the Rose Bowl at the very least, and possibly even the National Championship game. A few years back, this would never have been thought possible: the Rose Bowl would never have done that and no non-BCS team would have the schedule to get there (I don't believe TCU had it, but given that there are no other unbeatens, they might have a good enough one to get there). In the preseason I thought TCU would drop a game this year, either SMU, Baylor, or Oregon State, but they survived all 3 of those games and went 12-0. Good for them. Back-to-back 1-11 seasons for New Mexico: not much good to say about that one.
I said: SDSU 41, UNLV 17
Actual: SDSU 48, UNLV 14
Note: UNLV still has one more loss on the schedule at Hawaii, so they get to finish with 11 losses as well. Bad year. SDSU finished 8-4, with all four losses being by single-digits, three of them on the road. If Hoke sticks around for another year (highly doubtful in my opinion), next year they have a real shot at getting what by now is nearly an annual BCS bid for a non-AQ. TCU and Boise State will be rebuilding somewhat. I would venture to say that a 10-2 MWC Champion will probably be in the top 16 in the Final BCS Standings and be really close to earning an automatic BCS bid. An 11-1 team would almost certainly be in the top 12 and get it automatically. SDSU could be that team. The "big if" being if Hoke stays around...
By my count, that's 52-8 on the season for MWC schools not named BYU (with BYU I went a less-than-stellar 7-5, but they had a less-than-stellar 6-6 season, so it's about even).
Saturday, November 27, 2010
BYU-Utah 2010 Football Recap
These games can only seem to end one way: drama, drama, drama. I must just get out that the one thing that I hate about this rivalry reared its head immediately following the game today. After blocking the potential game-winning field goal on the last play of the game, several Ute players immediately got in the face of BYU players. Then about a dozen Ute players ran directly from their sideline to the BYU sideline to taunt, talk smack, etc. Several of them had to be restrained by their coaches. After making a play to win the game, about a third of the team was more concerned with rubbing it in BYU's face than celebrating with their team. It was every bit as ugly and classless as Max Hall's tirade last season.
Now, back to the game. No analysis of this game could really talk about anything but the following: do not beat yourselves. BYU handed the game over on a silver platter. Even then, though, they rallied and took a drive down the field and had a chance to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired: a 43-yarder from straight away, almost as easy as Boise State's two kicks yesterday. No BYU fan could have felt comfortable though: expecting BYU to go four-for-four on field goals against Utah on the road is just not a reasonable request. Here is a run-down of the few key plays that cost BYU the game.
The first big mistake was not kicking a 30-yard field goal to go up 9-0 early in the third quarter. I understand going for it on fourth down (with inches to go), and I even understand the play-action pass, but I'd rather take the points and the two-possession lead. BYU averaged less than 2 yards/carry for the game, so gaining inches on such a big play may have been a tall order. Starting on the Utah 23 and not getting any points is tough to swallow. But no one can say BYU played to not lose instead of playing to win. They played to win all day long. However, that was a momentum-killer.
The second big play was Rich missing an interception on the goalline. Both Rich and Logan had better shots at it than Jereme Brooks did. BYU would have been backed up on their own 1-yard line, but they would have had a 13-point lead and the ball going into the fourth quarter. Instead, Utah was able to kick a field goal to make it 13-3. It would have been a fairly difficult catch, but the senior FS will be the first to tell you that he should have had it. It might have sealed the game.
The third and fourth plays were after Utah's field goal. BYU fumbled the ball on a miscommunication and the ball kicked out and was recovered by Utah. Even if BYU just runs it 3 times and punts, Utah has worse field position and about 2 minutes less of game clock. As it is they fumbled and Utah recovered. Utah immediately turned it around with a TD strike on the very next play. A lucky bounce off of Brian Logan, who was in perfect position, allowed the catch to happen. Two lucky bounces on consective plays. Utah scores to make it 13-10 with only a minute taken off the clock. Well done, Utes.
The fifth play came after BYU scored to make it 16-10. They stopped Utah after just a single first down. A shanked punt that only went 27 yards bounced off a BYU player and Utah recovered it. It certainly wasn't the BYU player's fault: the ball could have bounced a lot of different ways and missed him, but it didn't. Then, the ball bounced inside instead of outside, giving the Utah player better positioning to recover the ball, which he did.
The sixth play came immediately following the punt miscue. BYU intercepts the pass on the very next play. During the return, Brandon Bradley "fumbled" the ball (everyone who saw the game will understand the reason for the quotation marks: it was a questionable call, at best). It was pretty clear that he fumbled after he was down, however, the Mtn has the camera work that it has. If the game had been on ESPN, it would have been overturned, but the Mtn did not have a definitive view without bodies in the way blocking the view. Still, to lose the ball in that situation at all is inexcusable. Take a knee if you have to.
The seventh play was the blocked kick on the final play of the game. You simply cannot allow that to be blocked. Now, given the trajectory the ball looked to be traveling on, it probably saved Mitch Payne from having nightmares about missing the game-winning kick against Utah. I don't think it was going in anyway.
If any of those 7 plays went differently, BYU would have won the game. If 2 or 3 of them go differently, then BYU wins handily. BYU beat themselves, and Utah was good enough, and played well enough, to cash in when the chances came.
BYU fans should be very encouraged though. They took a very young team into the most hostile environment they will EVER play in. They had the better QB, the better defense, and, on all but about three plays, the better special teams.
The defensive line dominated a big, veteran offensive line for much of the game. The LBs did very well in space against quick, shifty receivers. The secondary had great coverage with about two exceptions in 60 minutes. The defense had three interceptions, and held one of the highest scoring teams in college football to 17 points and less than 300 yards on the road.
The offense could not run the football at all, but the passing game was on target. Jake Heaps had a better game in his first try than any game that Max Hall had in any of his three attempts. The receivers had some drops, some costly drops (most of those drops are graduating, welcome back to the dog house, Luke Ashworth), but they also made some big catches and big plays as a group. The line held its own in pass blocking, but failed to open up holes in the running game (though even when they did, the backs did a horrible job of finding them).
Cougar fans should feel good about their performance and their team in 2011. It hurts to lose to your rival anytime, but the future is definitely looking bright. BYU fans should certainly be feeling good about the rematch in Provo next September. They were probably the better team today, and it will probably only get better for them next season. Both teams should definitely look forward to bowl wins, as neither will face a "worthy" opponent. Congrats to Utah for pulling out the 1-point home victory against a 6-6 BYU team that starts a true freshman and got killed by Utah State: if you want to read more about the U's win, go to a site that doesn't have "your home for BYU sports" in the title.
Now, back to the game. No analysis of this game could really talk about anything but the following: do not beat yourselves. BYU handed the game over on a silver platter. Even then, though, they rallied and took a drive down the field and had a chance to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired: a 43-yarder from straight away, almost as easy as Boise State's two kicks yesterday. No BYU fan could have felt comfortable though: expecting BYU to go four-for-four on field goals against Utah on the road is just not a reasonable request. Here is a run-down of the few key plays that cost BYU the game.
The first big mistake was not kicking a 30-yard field goal to go up 9-0 early in the third quarter. I understand going for it on fourth down (with inches to go), and I even understand the play-action pass, but I'd rather take the points and the two-possession lead. BYU averaged less than 2 yards/carry for the game, so gaining inches on such a big play may have been a tall order. Starting on the Utah 23 and not getting any points is tough to swallow. But no one can say BYU played to not lose instead of playing to win. They played to win all day long. However, that was a momentum-killer.
The second big play was Rich missing an interception on the goalline. Both Rich and Logan had better shots at it than Jereme Brooks did. BYU would have been backed up on their own 1-yard line, but they would have had a 13-point lead and the ball going into the fourth quarter. Instead, Utah was able to kick a field goal to make it 13-3. It would have been a fairly difficult catch, but the senior FS will be the first to tell you that he should have had it. It might have sealed the game.
The third and fourth plays were after Utah's field goal. BYU fumbled the ball on a miscommunication and the ball kicked out and was recovered by Utah. Even if BYU just runs it 3 times and punts, Utah has worse field position and about 2 minutes less of game clock. As it is they fumbled and Utah recovered. Utah immediately turned it around with a TD strike on the very next play. A lucky bounce off of Brian Logan, who was in perfect position, allowed the catch to happen. Two lucky bounces on consective plays. Utah scores to make it 13-10 with only a minute taken off the clock. Well done, Utes.
The fifth play came after BYU scored to make it 16-10. They stopped Utah after just a single first down. A shanked punt that only went 27 yards bounced off a BYU player and Utah recovered it. It certainly wasn't the BYU player's fault: the ball could have bounced a lot of different ways and missed him, but it didn't. Then, the ball bounced inside instead of outside, giving the Utah player better positioning to recover the ball, which he did.
The sixth play came immediately following the punt miscue. BYU intercepts the pass on the very next play. During the return, Brandon Bradley "fumbled" the ball (everyone who saw the game will understand the reason for the quotation marks: it was a questionable call, at best). It was pretty clear that he fumbled after he was down, however, the Mtn has the camera work that it has. If the game had been on ESPN, it would have been overturned, but the Mtn did not have a definitive view without bodies in the way blocking the view. Still, to lose the ball in that situation at all is inexcusable. Take a knee if you have to.
The seventh play was the blocked kick on the final play of the game. You simply cannot allow that to be blocked. Now, given the trajectory the ball looked to be traveling on, it probably saved Mitch Payne from having nightmares about missing the game-winning kick against Utah. I don't think it was going in anyway.
If any of those 7 plays went differently, BYU would have won the game. If 2 or 3 of them go differently, then BYU wins handily. BYU beat themselves, and Utah was good enough, and played well enough, to cash in when the chances came.
BYU fans should be very encouraged though. They took a very young team into the most hostile environment they will EVER play in. They had the better QB, the better defense, and, on all but about three plays, the better special teams.
The defensive line dominated a big, veteran offensive line for much of the game. The LBs did very well in space against quick, shifty receivers. The secondary had great coverage with about two exceptions in 60 minutes. The defense had three interceptions, and held one of the highest scoring teams in college football to 17 points and less than 300 yards on the road.
The offense could not run the football at all, but the passing game was on target. Jake Heaps had a better game in his first try than any game that Max Hall had in any of his three attempts. The receivers had some drops, some costly drops (most of those drops are graduating, welcome back to the dog house, Luke Ashworth), but they also made some big catches and big plays as a group. The line held its own in pass blocking, but failed to open up holes in the running game (though even when they did, the backs did a horrible job of finding them).
Cougar fans should feel good about their performance and their team in 2011. It hurts to lose to your rival anytime, but the future is definitely looking bright. BYU fans should certainly be feeling good about the rematch in Provo next September. They were probably the better team today, and it will probably only get better for them next season. Both teams should definitely look forward to bowl wins, as neither will face a "worthy" opponent. Congrats to Utah for pulling out the 1-point home victory against a 6-6 BYU team that starts a true freshman and got killed by Utah State: if you want to read more about the U's win, go to a site that doesn't have "your home for BYU sports" in the title.
Something I Never Thought I'd See
Alabama and Boise State, coached by two of the great minds in college football in Nick Saban and Chris Petersen, both blew huge leads on the same day to lose heartbreakers. The Alabama game turned on a bad play by their free safety which should have been an interception, but instead led to a 70-yard TD and life for Auburn and a 24-14 score. The Boise State game, as it so happened, turned on a call by an official, leading 24-7 they recovered a fumble on a punt and would have had the ball inside the Nevada 30. Instead, they ruled kick catch interference (on a side note, bad call), and Nevada got the ball at midfield and scored to make it 24-14.
In both cases, I would have expected a Saban or Petersen-coached team to respond and find a way to win. In neither case did it happen. Alabama only mounted one more serious drive all game. Boise State responded better, scoring another TD, and then missing a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation (and then missed another chip-shot in OT).
So, all of the talk, including from myself, was for naught. "Who will finish higher between TCU and Boise State" is now an answered question. No mathematic formula or human poll conjecture is needed to decide. TCU will finish higher. Will it be high enough to matter? They need Oregon or Auburn to lose for a SHOT at the title. At least now they know they should go to the Rose Bowl if nothing else: not a bad "consolation" prize...
Unfortunately for TCU, the "buffer" they had with LSU, Stanford, and Wisconsin just got smaller by one team, though LSU is the only real threat of the three to pass them. If LSU wins at Arkansas, they will certainly jump TCU in the computer polls and TCU will have to hang on for dear life in the human polls. Remember, LSU's only loss was by 7 points at #2 Auburn. While I disagree with the exact words of CBS commentator Gary Danielson (the exact words were very elitist: as the season is coming to a close we see people's true colors coming out!), the tenor will strike a chord with most people: what Auburn overcame against 11th-ranked Alabama is not something to take lightly. Taking that one step further: the team that came back from down 24 to beat reigning National Champion and rival Alabama on the road is the only team to beat LSU this season. I'm not saying that it should happen or that it will happen, I am just saying that it could happen should Oregon or Auburn slip up next week. The undefeated non-AQ teams were OK to make a push for the National Championship as long as there were two of them. TCU is no longer safe by themselves. Especially now that we are starting to see how the BCS folks really feel!
In both cases, I would have expected a Saban or Petersen-coached team to respond and find a way to win. In neither case did it happen. Alabama only mounted one more serious drive all game. Boise State responded better, scoring another TD, and then missing a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation (and then missed another chip-shot in OT).
So, all of the talk, including from myself, was for naught. "Who will finish higher between TCU and Boise State" is now an answered question. No mathematic formula or human poll conjecture is needed to decide. TCU will finish higher. Will it be high enough to matter? They need Oregon or Auburn to lose for a SHOT at the title. At least now they know they should go to the Rose Bowl if nothing else: not a bad "consolation" prize...
Unfortunately for TCU, the "buffer" they had with LSU, Stanford, and Wisconsin just got smaller by one team, though LSU is the only real threat of the three to pass them. If LSU wins at Arkansas, they will certainly jump TCU in the computer polls and TCU will have to hang on for dear life in the human polls. Remember, LSU's only loss was by 7 points at #2 Auburn. While I disagree with the exact words of CBS commentator Gary Danielson (the exact words were very elitist: as the season is coming to a close we see people's true colors coming out!), the tenor will strike a chord with most people: what Auburn overcame against 11th-ranked Alabama is not something to take lightly. Taking that one step further: the team that came back from down 24 to beat reigning National Champion and rival Alabama on the road is the only team to beat LSU this season. I'm not saying that it should happen or that it will happen, I am just saying that it could happen should Oregon or Auburn slip up next week. The undefeated non-AQ teams were OK to make a push for the National Championship as long as there were two of them. TCU is no longer safe by themselves. Especially now that we are starting to see how the BCS folks really feel!
Friday, November 26, 2010
BYU vs. Utah - 2010 Football Prediction
BYU Offense vs. Utah Defense
The Cougars have been moving the ball and scoring points, commanding the line of scrimmage, throwing, passing, etc. the past few games. But they still have a freshman QB and a lot of young players stepping onto the rivalry for the first time (or at least their first time at Utah). The running game has been their strength. They have three RBs that have been big parts of BYU's offense: DiLuigi is the feature back, Kariya is the short yardage back, and Quezada has emerged lately as a do-everything kind of back. There are 4 main receiving targets for Heaps to hit: DiLuigi is the main target out of the backfield, Hoffman is looking like a deep threat lately, Ashworth has stepped up and carried the passing game the past month, and McKay Jacobson has been the short, possession receiver. There are no TEs in the main passing mix, though BYU TEs have traditionally had good games against Utah. Devin Mahina would be my guess as the TE with the best chance to get 2 or more receptions tomorrow.
Utah's defense has really shut down opposing rushing attacks, holding opponents to 107 yards/game. Part of that could be attributed to getting big leads and forcing opponents to pass, but you cannot argue with 3.14 yards/carry. The secondary has not been as good as a normal Utah secondary is: they have not been able to lock-down in the passing game. They play a high-risk, high-reward man-to-man defense and this year has been more risk than reward, particularly the last 4 weeks. For the most part, the word to describe this defense is dominant. They have big and fast defensive linemen, very active linebackers that can run sideline-to-sideline in coverage, and athletic, aggressive defensive backs that are used as blitzers and are solid in run support.
I would expect Utah's defense to really get aggressive and throw a lot of looks at Jake Heaps and try to confuse him. I suppose the other strategy they could employ would be 8 in the box and force Heaps and the WRs to beat them through the air instead of mixing the coverage and trying to confuse them. The Cougars will need to rely on the rushing attack, and I believe BYU can have more success in the running game than most teams have had against Utah, if they stay as dynamic as they have been the past few weeks. A traditional Anae attack will not get 200 yards against Utah. He has to mix it up like he has been.
BYU's Defense vs. Utah's Offense
Utah has very good balance. Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide can run between the tackles and outside, both averaging over 4.5 yards/carry. Jordan Wynn is a good, not great QB. Jereme Brooks, Shaky Smithson, and DeVonte Christopher are shifty, tough to tackle in the open field WRs, with 6 receiving plays of over 50 yards on the season. They have a big offensive line, with the exception of LT John Cullen who is a little undersized. They are superb in pass protection, giving up only 7 sacks in 11 games (though all 7 have been in the last 4 games). They also open a lot of holes in the running game, leading an attack averaging 4.8 yards/carry and 163 yards/game, with 26 rushing TDs on the season.
BYU's defense has been pretty dominant the past few games. Their defensive line has been eating up blockers, LBs have been making plays in pass coverage and the running game, and the secondary has been very solid in limiting yards after catch. They also haven't seen an offense with the skill, speed, and size of Utah in quite some time. Their defensive line has been playing inspired, but they are paper thin: any injuries, even minor ones, against Utah could change the entire game. The LBs are deep with a lot of different skill sets, pass rushers, run stoppers, and coverage specialists: if Jordan Wynn can recognize who is out there, he can find the mismatches that we wants. The DBs have turned into a strength the past few weeks. They force QBs to be accurate as they are always in the vicinity of the WRs.
Utah will be able to move the ball against BYU somewhat easily, compared to what BYU has given up in recent games. I would be shocked if Utah didn't get 350, or even 400, yards. The key will be the red zone: can they get TDs or will they have to settle for field goals?
Prediction
People say "anything can happen in a rivalry game." This is a true statement. However, it seems to be a very one-sided statement in terms of this rivalry. When BYU is the better team, anything can happen. When Utah is the better team, they tend to dominate the game. I believe that Utah is the better team this season. They are more experienced, deeper, and have the home field advantage. The win against SDSU showed they are resilient and not just "front-runners" as they appeared to be the rest of the season. The score starts 0-0 and anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see an outcome anything other than Utah winning by double-digits. Look for some trick plays from Utah on offense and some serious blitzing from their defense. If BYU can contain the trick plays and pick up the blitzes, they have a chance. I think they have too many freshmen, too many people stepping into Rice-Eccles for the first time to pull it out, particularly on offense. BYU must get ahead early to have any chance: if the Utes smell blood in the 3rd quarter, they will go in for the kill. I think they get the kill this season. Utah 34, BYU 17.
The Cougars have been moving the ball and scoring points, commanding the line of scrimmage, throwing, passing, etc. the past few games. But they still have a freshman QB and a lot of young players stepping onto the rivalry for the first time (or at least their first time at Utah). The running game has been their strength. They have three RBs that have been big parts of BYU's offense: DiLuigi is the feature back, Kariya is the short yardage back, and Quezada has emerged lately as a do-everything kind of back. There are 4 main receiving targets for Heaps to hit: DiLuigi is the main target out of the backfield, Hoffman is looking like a deep threat lately, Ashworth has stepped up and carried the passing game the past month, and McKay Jacobson has been the short, possession receiver. There are no TEs in the main passing mix, though BYU TEs have traditionally had good games against Utah. Devin Mahina would be my guess as the TE with the best chance to get 2 or more receptions tomorrow.
Utah's defense has really shut down opposing rushing attacks, holding opponents to 107 yards/game. Part of that could be attributed to getting big leads and forcing opponents to pass, but you cannot argue with 3.14 yards/carry. The secondary has not been as good as a normal Utah secondary is: they have not been able to lock-down in the passing game. They play a high-risk, high-reward man-to-man defense and this year has been more risk than reward, particularly the last 4 weeks. For the most part, the word to describe this defense is dominant. They have big and fast defensive linemen, very active linebackers that can run sideline-to-sideline in coverage, and athletic, aggressive defensive backs that are used as blitzers and are solid in run support.
I would expect Utah's defense to really get aggressive and throw a lot of looks at Jake Heaps and try to confuse him. I suppose the other strategy they could employ would be 8 in the box and force Heaps and the WRs to beat them through the air instead of mixing the coverage and trying to confuse them. The Cougars will need to rely on the rushing attack, and I believe BYU can have more success in the running game than most teams have had against Utah, if they stay as dynamic as they have been the past few weeks. A traditional Anae attack will not get 200 yards against Utah. He has to mix it up like he has been.
BYU's Defense vs. Utah's Offense
Utah has very good balance. Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide can run between the tackles and outside, both averaging over 4.5 yards/carry. Jordan Wynn is a good, not great QB. Jereme Brooks, Shaky Smithson, and DeVonte Christopher are shifty, tough to tackle in the open field WRs, with 6 receiving plays of over 50 yards on the season. They have a big offensive line, with the exception of LT John Cullen who is a little undersized. They are superb in pass protection, giving up only 7 sacks in 11 games (though all 7 have been in the last 4 games). They also open a lot of holes in the running game, leading an attack averaging 4.8 yards/carry and 163 yards/game, with 26 rushing TDs on the season.
BYU's defense has been pretty dominant the past few games. Their defensive line has been eating up blockers, LBs have been making plays in pass coverage and the running game, and the secondary has been very solid in limiting yards after catch. They also haven't seen an offense with the skill, speed, and size of Utah in quite some time. Their defensive line has been playing inspired, but they are paper thin: any injuries, even minor ones, against Utah could change the entire game. The LBs are deep with a lot of different skill sets, pass rushers, run stoppers, and coverage specialists: if Jordan Wynn can recognize who is out there, he can find the mismatches that we wants. The DBs have turned into a strength the past few weeks. They force QBs to be accurate as they are always in the vicinity of the WRs.
Utah will be able to move the ball against BYU somewhat easily, compared to what BYU has given up in recent games. I would be shocked if Utah didn't get 350, or even 400, yards. The key will be the red zone: can they get TDs or will they have to settle for field goals?
Prediction
People say "anything can happen in a rivalry game." This is a true statement. However, it seems to be a very one-sided statement in terms of this rivalry. When BYU is the better team, anything can happen. When Utah is the better team, they tend to dominate the game. I believe that Utah is the better team this season. They are more experienced, deeper, and have the home field advantage. The win against SDSU showed they are resilient and not just "front-runners" as they appeared to be the rest of the season. The score starts 0-0 and anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see an outcome anything other than Utah winning by double-digits. Look for some trick plays from Utah on offense and some serious blitzing from their defense. If BYU can contain the trick plays and pick up the blitzes, they have a chance. I think they have too many freshmen, too many people stepping into Rice-Eccles for the first time to pull it out, particularly on offense. BYU must get ahead early to have any chance: if the Utes smell blood in the 3rd quarter, they will go in for the kill. I think they get the kill this season. Utah 34, BYU 17.
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Thirteen
TCU at New Mexico:
Great team against poor team. Great rushing attack against a porour rushing defense. Speed, size, athleticism against lacks of speed, size, and athleticism. TCU 45, New Mexico 3.
UNLV at SDSU:
UNLV has not been good and they have been even worse on the road. SDSU has been good anywhere, against most anyone. They fought Missouri, TCU, Utah, and BYU hard. However, they have been playing pretty much everybody closely. They can throw all over the field. They have a dynamic running back. Their defense has been adequate. Look for them to put up points against a poor defense. SDSU blows out UNLV at home to end their season: SDSU 41, UNLV 17.
Great team against poor team. Great rushing attack against a porour rushing defense. Speed, size, athleticism against lacks of speed, size, and athleticism. TCU 45, New Mexico 3.
UNLV at SDSU:
UNLV has not been good and they have been even worse on the road. SDSU has been good anywhere, against most anyone. They fought Missouri, TCU, Utah, and BYU hard. However, they have been playing pretty much everybody closely. They can throw all over the field. They have a dynamic running back. Their defense has been adequate. Look for them to put up points against a poor defense. SDSU blows out UNLV at home to end their season: SDSU 41, UNLV 17.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Mailbag: Future of Current MWC Head Football Coaches
I was recently asked to highlight the future of the current MWC Head Coaches. So here is a run-down, based on current conference standings.
TCU: Gary Patterson
He has been on the short list for several prestigious jobs before, yet he remains at TCU. Still, one has to wonder with such a senior-dominated team: how much longer can he hold the magic together at TCU? Given the uphill battle for non-BCS schools to get into a National Championship game, he would have to essentially start from scratch in 2012, even if his TCU team went 10-2 in 2011. I suspect he will stay at TCU, but if there were ever a year to jump, this would be it!
Utah: Kyle Whittingham
He isn't leaving Utah by choice or by force any time soon. There really isn't anything to discuss about his job situation. I would guess that when he leaves Utah, it would be by force (either old age or because they asked him not to come back after 3 or 4 bad seasons in a row: I'm not predicting that things will fall apart, I'm just saying those would be the circumstances).
BYU: Bronco Mendenhall
He will probably leave of his own accord to retire or pursue other life goals, perhaps in the next 5 to 10 years. Given the turnaround this season, I imagine if he ever got in a similar situation (2014, perhaps, when they have to find a replacement for a 4-year starting QB), he would make the necessary changes to turn his team's fortunes around and his job would never really be in jeopardy.
Air Force: Troy Calhoun
His name has surfaced as a top 5 candidate for the Colorado Head Gig. I think he is a long shot to leave the Academy for another university, even a BCS one. My guess is that he would only leave for an NFL job. He played for Air Force and is a perfect fit as their coach. He loves the Air Force type of player, and those are few and far between at other institutions of higher learning. He has shown a real knack for commanding the triple option attack. I believe he is probably going to be a Fisher DeBerry type of coach: stay at his service academy until he gets too old to do it anymore.
San Diego State: Brady Hoke
His name has emerged for head coaching jobs all over the country, most notably and seriously for the job at the University of Minnesota (reports are that he has already met with officials from the University about the vacancy). Will he leave San Diego? Absolutely! He claims that he is not looking to bail on his SDSU Aztecs. Translation: open up your checkbooks, particularly if you want me to coach in the freezing cold. He left Ball State, where he attended school himself, to go to San Diego State, a step up in conferences. I expect he would do the same with SDSU, where he has no ties at all, if a team in a better conference with bigger coffers came calling, i.e. Minnesota. He will be their Urban Meyer, rent-a-coach, but without the BCS win and number 1 draft pick that Urban produced at Utah before moving on to greener swamps, um, pastures.
UNLV: Bobby Hauck
He just got there. The job he has done isn't going to turn any heads, but it also isn't going to make his own roll. He took over a bad team with no discipline. He still has a bad, fairly undisciplined team, but give him two more years and he'll have completely changed the style of the program.
Colorado State: Steve Fairchild
Despite back-to-back disappointing seasons, after a bowl win in his first season, his job appears relatively safe, even after the humiliating defeat at Wyoming. He has a young, inexperienced team this season. Next year, he won't have that excuse anymore. He would be wise to win at least 5 games next year, if not more. It is tough to tell whether he is losing because of inexperience, or the fact that his young players stink. In a weaker MWC next season, they should lose fewer conference games if it is just inexperience.
New Mexico: Mike Locksley
This is the one I cannot figure out. New Mexico does not have the money to fire him ($1.6 million buyout), but they also cannot afford to go 1-11 for a third straight year. I would think if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now before the embarrassing loss at BYU and the one sure to come against TCU on Senior Day.
His first recruiting class was arguably the best ever for New Mexico. His second one, if it comes together, could be even better than the first. Will he be around for it to come together? For me, the question with firing a coach always is: can you get someone better? Well, a lot of coaches could go 1-11 and get blown out a half-dozen times. Then the question becomes: if you can get someone better, can you keep someone better? If the Lobos hired, say, Mike Leach and he won 7 games his first season and then 10 games his next, then they would have to find a new coach when Leach left for a BCS conference school and start all over again.
What is better: giving Locksley one or two more years and see if he can figure it out or canning him now and getting a quick bump in wins but have a long-term problem? I am not sure Locksley can win games as a coach, but he can recruit better players. Maybe they should let him bring in another decent recruiting class (and get started on the next one too) and go 3-9 in 2011 before canning him and letting someone else come coach a program with more talent than it has had in quite some time!
Wyoming: Dave Christensen
The Cowboys won a bowl game last season after several years in a row without a bowl appearance. This year, however, they managed to lose 9 games, including one to New Mexico. But they won the Border War game against CSU. This is another case of a lot of young players out on the field. He will certainly be around for a few more years, even if he didn't turn it around at all he'd get at least two more. I suspect he will turn it around.
TCU: Gary Patterson
He has been on the short list for several prestigious jobs before, yet he remains at TCU. Still, one has to wonder with such a senior-dominated team: how much longer can he hold the magic together at TCU? Given the uphill battle for non-BCS schools to get into a National Championship game, he would have to essentially start from scratch in 2012, even if his TCU team went 10-2 in 2011. I suspect he will stay at TCU, but if there were ever a year to jump, this would be it!
Utah: Kyle Whittingham
He isn't leaving Utah by choice or by force any time soon. There really isn't anything to discuss about his job situation. I would guess that when he leaves Utah, it would be by force (either old age or because they asked him not to come back after 3 or 4 bad seasons in a row: I'm not predicting that things will fall apart, I'm just saying those would be the circumstances).
BYU: Bronco Mendenhall
He will probably leave of his own accord to retire or pursue other life goals, perhaps in the next 5 to 10 years. Given the turnaround this season, I imagine if he ever got in a similar situation (2014, perhaps, when they have to find a replacement for a 4-year starting QB), he would make the necessary changes to turn his team's fortunes around and his job would never really be in jeopardy.
Air Force: Troy Calhoun
His name has surfaced as a top 5 candidate for the Colorado Head Gig. I think he is a long shot to leave the Academy for another university, even a BCS one. My guess is that he would only leave for an NFL job. He played for Air Force and is a perfect fit as their coach. He loves the Air Force type of player, and those are few and far between at other institutions of higher learning. He has shown a real knack for commanding the triple option attack. I believe he is probably going to be a Fisher DeBerry type of coach: stay at his service academy until he gets too old to do it anymore.
San Diego State: Brady Hoke
His name has emerged for head coaching jobs all over the country, most notably and seriously for the job at the University of Minnesota (reports are that he has already met with officials from the University about the vacancy). Will he leave San Diego? Absolutely! He claims that he is not looking to bail on his SDSU Aztecs. Translation: open up your checkbooks, particularly if you want me to coach in the freezing cold. He left Ball State, where he attended school himself, to go to San Diego State, a step up in conferences. I expect he would do the same with SDSU, where he has no ties at all, if a team in a better conference with bigger coffers came calling, i.e. Minnesota. He will be their Urban Meyer, rent-a-coach, but without the BCS win and number 1 draft pick that Urban produced at Utah before moving on to greener swamps, um, pastures.
UNLV: Bobby Hauck
He just got there. The job he has done isn't going to turn any heads, but it also isn't going to make his own roll. He took over a bad team with no discipline. He still has a bad, fairly undisciplined team, but give him two more years and he'll have completely changed the style of the program.
Colorado State: Steve Fairchild
Despite back-to-back disappointing seasons, after a bowl win in his first season, his job appears relatively safe, even after the humiliating defeat at Wyoming. He has a young, inexperienced team this season. Next year, he won't have that excuse anymore. He would be wise to win at least 5 games next year, if not more. It is tough to tell whether he is losing because of inexperience, or the fact that his young players stink. In a weaker MWC next season, they should lose fewer conference games if it is just inexperience.
New Mexico: Mike Locksley
This is the one I cannot figure out. New Mexico does not have the money to fire him ($1.6 million buyout), but they also cannot afford to go 1-11 for a third straight year. I would think if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now before the embarrassing loss at BYU and the one sure to come against TCU on Senior Day.
His first recruiting class was arguably the best ever for New Mexico. His second one, if it comes together, could be even better than the first. Will he be around for it to come together? For me, the question with firing a coach always is: can you get someone better? Well, a lot of coaches could go 1-11 and get blown out a half-dozen times. Then the question becomes: if you can get someone better, can you keep someone better? If the Lobos hired, say, Mike Leach and he won 7 games his first season and then 10 games his next, then they would have to find a new coach when Leach left for a BCS conference school and start all over again.
What is better: giving Locksley one or two more years and see if he can figure it out or canning him now and getting a quick bump in wins but have a long-term problem? I am not sure Locksley can win games as a coach, but he can recruit better players. Maybe they should let him bring in another decent recruiting class (and get started on the next one too) and go 3-9 in 2011 before canning him and letting someone else come coach a program with more talent than it has had in quite some time!
Wyoming: Dave Christensen
The Cowboys won a bowl game last season after several years in a row without a bowl appearance. This year, however, they managed to lose 9 games, including one to New Mexico. But they won the Border War game against CSU. This is another case of a lot of young players out on the field. He will certainly be around for a few more years, even if he didn't turn it around at all he'd get at least two more. I suspect he will turn it around.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
BYU vs. Utah - Key Matchups
The Utah Passing Attack vs. The BYU Pass Defense
Utah has been able to throw the ball all over the field against opponents. Their specialty is yards after the catch (YAC). They do not go deep very often, lacking a consistent deep threat, but they are plenty capable of turning a short pass into a big play. DeVonte Christopher has been especially adept at taking it to the house. But those crossing routes will have to get by a much improved BYU linebacking group before getting into the open field. The secondary has done a good job all season at limiting the YAC on the outside. The LBs are getting better at manning the inside than they had been earlier in the season. 225 is the magic number. If Utah goes over that, BYU will have a difficult time preventing points (and BYU would be best advised to not get into a shootout). If BYU keeps them under that, it will force Utah to run the ball more effectively than they have been in recent weeks. It has been over a month since Utah averaged 4 yards/carry in the run game.
BYU's Three-Headed RB attack vs. Utah's Stout Front 7 (8, counting SS Brian Blechen)
BYU has run the ball well pretty much all season. Even when there was no passing attack, and no threat of a passing attack, BYU was still able to run. Even when the Ute secondary was giving up 528 passing yards to SDSU, they held down the Aztec rushing attack (59 yards in 21 attempts). It is a big, more athletic front 4 going up against a bigger, athletic O-Line. It is 3 physical linebackers going up against 2 physical running backs and 1 prancing one. Throw in two big-hitting safeties and a couple of bruising FBs and TEs for a nice addition to this Big Ten-style chess match. The key number is not a yardage total so much as a yard/carry average. BYU generally needs to be about 4.3 or 4.4 yards/carry to do what they want to do offensively. Utah is giving up 3.14 yards/carry on the season. If BYU can manage 4.0 yards/carry, that might be enough to help the freshmen QB, TEs, and WRs adjust to the game played at rivalry speed.
Riley Stephenson vs. Shaky Smithson
Shaky Smithson is the #2 punt returner in the country, averaging 21.11 yards/return with 2 TDs. Riley Stephenson and BYU's punt cover team has held opponents to 6.43 yards/return. Given how tight these rivalry games can be, a big punt return (or the lack of any punt returns) could swing the momentum enough to give a team enough of an edge. BYU needs to hold Shaky to less than 10/return, or better yet, prevent him from returning the ball at all. Utah may need a big special teams play to break the game open, and Shaky is capable of providing that spark at any time.
Utah has been able to throw the ball all over the field against opponents. Their specialty is yards after the catch (YAC). They do not go deep very often, lacking a consistent deep threat, but they are plenty capable of turning a short pass into a big play. DeVonte Christopher has been especially adept at taking it to the house. But those crossing routes will have to get by a much improved BYU linebacking group before getting into the open field. The secondary has done a good job all season at limiting the YAC on the outside. The LBs are getting better at manning the inside than they had been earlier in the season. 225 is the magic number. If Utah goes over that, BYU will have a difficult time preventing points (and BYU would be best advised to not get into a shootout). If BYU keeps them under that, it will force Utah to run the ball more effectively than they have been in recent weeks. It has been over a month since Utah averaged 4 yards/carry in the run game.
BYU's Three-Headed RB attack vs. Utah's Stout Front 7 (8, counting SS Brian Blechen)
BYU has run the ball well pretty much all season. Even when there was no passing attack, and no threat of a passing attack, BYU was still able to run. Even when the Ute secondary was giving up 528 passing yards to SDSU, they held down the Aztec rushing attack (59 yards in 21 attempts). It is a big, more athletic front 4 going up against a bigger, athletic O-Line. It is 3 physical linebackers going up against 2 physical running backs and 1 prancing one. Throw in two big-hitting safeties and a couple of bruising FBs and TEs for a nice addition to this Big Ten-style chess match. The key number is not a yardage total so much as a yard/carry average. BYU generally needs to be about 4.3 or 4.4 yards/carry to do what they want to do offensively. Utah is giving up 3.14 yards/carry on the season. If BYU can manage 4.0 yards/carry, that might be enough to help the freshmen QB, TEs, and WRs adjust to the game played at rivalry speed.
Riley Stephenson vs. Shaky Smithson
Shaky Smithson is the #2 punt returner in the country, averaging 21.11 yards/return with 2 TDs. Riley Stephenson and BYU's punt cover team has held opponents to 6.43 yards/return. Given how tight these rivalry games can be, a big punt return (or the lack of any punt returns) could swing the momentum enough to give a team enough of an edge. BYU needs to hold Shaky to less than 10/return, or better yet, prevent him from returning the ball at all. Utah may need a big special teams play to break the game open, and Shaky is capable of providing that spark at any time.
BYU vs. Utah - Special Team and Misc.
Net Punting:
Utah (103rd), 33.68 yards/punt (44 total punts, 3 touchbacks)
BYU (78th), 35.43 yards/punt (46 total punts, 7 touchbacks)
Punt Returns:
Utah (2nd), 19.19 yards/return (3 TDs)
BYU (62nd), 7.95 yards/return (0 TDs)
Punt Return Defense:
Utah (84th), 10.11 yards/return
BYU (26th), 6.43 yards/return
Kickoff Returns:
Utah (15th), 25.06 yards/return (1 TD)
BYU (38th), 22.87 yards/return (0 TDs)
Kickoff Return Defense:
Utah (12th), 19.3 yards/return (72 kickoffs, 18 touchbacks)
BYU (95th), 23.81 yards/return (56 kickoffs, 22 touchbacks)
Turnover Margin:
Utah (75th), -.27/game
BYU (43rd), +.18/game
Penalties:
Utah (44th), 5.73 penalties/game
BYU (40th), 5.64 penalties/game
Penalty Yards:
Utah (49th), 49.27 yards/game
BYU (35th), 46.27 yards/game
Time of Possession:
Utah (64th), 29:55/game
BYU (47th), 30:27/game
Field Goals:
Joe Phillips 91.7%
Mitch Payne 81.3%
Special teams will be an interesting battle. Utah is much better at returns, both punt and kickoff. But BYU has the better punter (better net punting, fewer yards/return) and kickoff specialist (much higher percentage of touchbacks). BYU commits fewer penalties, turns the ball over less, and possesses the ball for longer. They will probably need all of those advantages to work in their favor on Saturday, given the disadvantages they have offensively and defensively.
Utah (103rd), 33.68 yards/punt (44 total punts, 3 touchbacks)
BYU (78th), 35.43 yards/punt (46 total punts, 7 touchbacks)
Punt Returns:
Utah (2nd), 19.19 yards/return (3 TDs)
BYU (62nd), 7.95 yards/return (0 TDs)
Punt Return Defense:
Utah (84th), 10.11 yards/return
BYU (26th), 6.43 yards/return
Kickoff Returns:
Utah (15th), 25.06 yards/return (1 TD)
BYU (38th), 22.87 yards/return (0 TDs)
Kickoff Return Defense:
Utah (12th), 19.3 yards/return (72 kickoffs, 18 touchbacks)
BYU (95th), 23.81 yards/return (56 kickoffs, 22 touchbacks)
Turnover Margin:
Utah (75th), -.27/game
BYU (43rd), +.18/game
Penalties:
Utah (44th), 5.73 penalties/game
BYU (40th), 5.64 penalties/game
Penalty Yards:
Utah (49th), 49.27 yards/game
BYU (35th), 46.27 yards/game
Time of Possession:
Utah (64th), 29:55/game
BYU (47th), 30:27/game
Field Goals:
Joe Phillips 91.7%
Mitch Payne 81.3%
Special teams will be an interesting battle. Utah is much better at returns, both punt and kickoff. But BYU has the better punter (better net punting, fewer yards/return) and kickoff specialist (much higher percentage of touchbacks). BYU commits fewer penalties, turns the ball over less, and possesses the ball for longer. They will probably need all of those advantages to work in their favor on Saturday, given the disadvantages they have offensively and defensively.
BYU vs. Utah - Defense
Passing Defense:
Utah (59th), 214.36 yards/game
BYU (19th), 186.09 yards/game
Rushing Defense:
Utah (10th), 107.73 yards/game
BYU (66th), 156.82 yards/game
Total Defense:
Utah (23rd), 322.09 yards/game
BYU (36th), 342.91 yards/game
Scoring Defense:
Utah (20th), 20.18 points/game
BYU (39th), 21.82 points/game
3rd Down Conversion Defense:
Utah (18th), 34.90%
BYU (89th), 42.77%
Red Zone Defense:
Utah (81st), 86%
BYU (102nd), 89%
Interceptions:
Utah (59th), 10 picks
BYU (59th), 10 picks
Fumbles Recovered:
Utah (70th), 7 fumbles
BYU (70th), 7 fumbles
Sacks:
Utah (33rd), 2.36 sacks/game
BYU (77th), 1.73 sacks/game
It would not surprise anyone who knows MWC football, Utah has a better statistical defense than BYU. What is surprising is that the one area that BYU's defense exceeds Utah's is passing defense. It is also a bit surprising that they are tied in takeaways. Utah clearly has more athletic defenders, particularly in the secondary, but apparently the high risk, high reward strategy has been as much risk as it has been reward to this point. At least compared to BYU this season.
Utah (59th), 214.36 yards/game
BYU (19th), 186.09 yards/game
Rushing Defense:
Utah (10th), 107.73 yards/game
BYU (66th), 156.82 yards/game
Total Defense:
Utah (23rd), 322.09 yards/game
BYU (36th), 342.91 yards/game
Scoring Defense:
Utah (20th), 20.18 points/game
BYU (39th), 21.82 points/game
3rd Down Conversion Defense:
Utah (18th), 34.90%
BYU (89th), 42.77%
Red Zone Defense:
Utah (81st), 86%
BYU (102nd), 89%
Interceptions:
Utah (59th), 10 picks
BYU (59th), 10 picks
Fumbles Recovered:
Utah (70th), 7 fumbles
BYU (70th), 7 fumbles
Sacks:
Utah (33rd), 2.36 sacks/game
BYU (77th), 1.73 sacks/game
It would not surprise anyone who knows MWC football, Utah has a better statistical defense than BYU. What is surprising is that the one area that BYU's defense exceeds Utah's is passing defense. It is also a bit surprising that they are tied in takeaways. Utah clearly has more athletic defenders, particularly in the secondary, but apparently the high risk, high reward strategy has been as much risk as it has been reward to this point. At least compared to BYU this season.
BYU vs. Utah - Offense
Passing Yards:
Utah (33rd), 251.73 yards/game
BYU (86th), 186.91 yards/game
Rushing Yards:
Utah (45th), 162.91 yards/game
BYU (39th), 172.82 yards/game
Scoring:
Utah (14th), 37.27 points/game
BYU (83rd), 24.73 points/game
Third Down Conversions:
Utah (24th), 46.26%
BYU (25th), 45.83%
Red Zone Scoring:
Utah (27th), 87%
BYU (21st), 88%
Interceptions Thrown:
Utah (41st), 9 thrown
BYU (28th), 8 thrown
Fumbles Lost:
Utah (91st), 11 lost
BYU (26th), 7 lost
Sacks Allowed:
Utah (5th), .64 sacks/game
BYU (49th), 1.73 sacks/game
Utah moves the ball more and scores more with 55 more yards and 12.5 more points per game. BYU values the ball more, turning it over 5 less times in 11 games. Utah gains more yards through the air. BYU gains more on the ground. Yes, I realize how backwards that sounds, but it is what it is. No matter how you slice it, Utah clearly has had the better offense over the course of the season.
Utah (33rd), 251.73 yards/game
BYU (86th), 186.91 yards/game
Rushing Yards:
Utah (45th), 162.91 yards/game
BYU (39th), 172.82 yards/game
Scoring:
Utah (14th), 37.27 points/game
BYU (83rd), 24.73 points/game
Third Down Conversions:
Utah (24th), 46.26%
BYU (25th), 45.83%
Red Zone Scoring:
Utah (27th), 87%
BYU (21st), 88%
Interceptions Thrown:
Utah (41st), 9 thrown
BYU (28th), 8 thrown
Fumbles Lost:
Utah (91st), 11 lost
BYU (26th), 7 lost
Sacks Allowed:
Utah (5th), .64 sacks/game
BYU (49th), 1.73 sacks/game
Utah moves the ball more and scores more with 55 more yards and 12.5 more points per game. BYU values the ball more, turning it over 5 less times in 11 games. Utah gains more yards through the air. BYU gains more on the ground. Yes, I realize how backwards that sounds, but it is what it is. No matter how you slice it, Utah clearly has had the better offense over the course of the season.
Mississippi Valley State-BYU Preview 2010
If you are wondering what kind of team the Southwestern Athletic Conference Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils are, all you need to know is that they do not play a single home game until their conference season starts. They were 8-23 last season against Division I opponents, with all 8 wins coming in conference play. Their closest non-conference Division I game was a 7-point loss to the Sun Belt's Arkansas State. Every other loss was by at least 14 points. They gave up at least 71 points in every game and scored 68 or less each time.
This season they are 0-3, with losses at Georgia, Indiana, and St. Mary's. They have one player shooting 50%, everyone else is under that. They only have two players averaging more than 4 rebounds a game. They only have a single player averaging double-digit points. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is under .5 as a team, which is very, very bad.
BYU is still looking for its identity a little bit, or at least waiting for somebody not named Jimmer to play consistently for 40 minutes. But these are the kinds of games where someone like that can start to emerge, until they have a coming out party against a quality opponent (like South Florida on Friday). Noah Hartsock appears to be that guy, but I think Kyle Collinsworth is on the verge of breaking out. He played a very complete game against Chicago State, rebounding, assisting, stealing, and scoring. He could use a little help at the free throw line, but besides that, he is my pick to solidify himself in the next week.
BYU wins this game easily. BYU 91, MVSU 49.
This season they are 0-3, with losses at Georgia, Indiana, and St. Mary's. They have one player shooting 50%, everyone else is under that. They only have two players averaging more than 4 rebounds a game. They only have a single player averaging double-digit points. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is under .5 as a team, which is very, very bad.
BYU is still looking for its identity a little bit, or at least waiting for somebody not named Jimmer to play consistently for 40 minutes. But these are the kinds of games where someone like that can start to emerge, until they have a coming out party against a quality opponent (like South Florida on Friday). Noah Hartsock appears to be that guy, but I think Kyle Collinsworth is on the verge of breaking out. He played a very complete game against Chicago State, rebounding, assisting, stealing, and scoring. He could use a little help at the free throw line, but besides that, he is my pick to solidify himself in the next week.
BYU wins this game easily. BYU 91, MVSU 49.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Thirteen
Crossing the 50
BYU scored on all 7 possessions when they crossed the 50-yard line: 2 field goals and 5 TDs. This was the best game so far this season at finishing drives.
BYU-Utah Common Opponents
UNLV:
Utah 38-10 home win, BYU 55-7 home win; advantage BYU
New Mexico:
Utah 56-14 road win, BYU 40-7 home win; advantage Utah
Wyoming:
Utah 30-6 road win, BYU 25-20 home win; advantage Utah
Colorado State:
Utah 59-6 home win, BYU 49-10 road win; even
Air Force:
Utah 28-23 road win, BYU 35-14 road loss; advantage Utah
TCU:
Utah 47-7 home loss, BYU 31-3 road loss; advantage BYU (if you can call a 28-point loss an advantage)
SDSU:
Utah 38-34 road win, BYU 24-21 home win; advantage Utah
In the battle of head-to-head opponents, Utah leads 4-2-1. Utah is 6-1 against those opponents and BYU is 5-2.
The (Even Bigger) BCS Mess
A lot has been made about which undefeated non-AQ team would finish ahead of the other. It seems obvious now that Boise State will be the one on top, should both teams go undefeated.
A lot has been made about potential 1-loss teams jumping them. The buffer between the undefeated non-AQ teams and the 1-loss BCS teams is sufficient, given that none of them have a marquee matchup left this season to jump them.
A lot has been made about a chance a non-AQ team could play for the National Championship. It is obviously possible, should Auburn or Oregon lose a game.
People are starting to come around to the fact I would like to discuss, which I feel is the biggest mess of all: could we have an undefeated non-AQ team ranked in the top 5 not get into a BCS bowl? Boise State went undefeated two years ago and got snubbed, but they were ranked 9th at the time. So here is the math, as I see it:
6 BCS conference champions go to a BCS game. Mo predicts Oregon, Oklahoma (beats OK State then Nebraska: they don't call him Big Game Bob for no reason), Wisconsin (wins a tie-breaker with Michigan State and/or Ohio State), South Carolina (beats Auburn: tough for Auburn to beat them TWICE this season, the first was a one TD win at Auburn in September), Virginia Tech (beats NC State or Florida State), and Pittsburgh (I believe they can beat West Virginia in the backyard brawl)
1 undefeated non-AQ team goes to a BCS game. Mo has always been on the Boise State bandwagon. I believe they have a very good chance to play for a National Championship, given that I believe Auburn will struggle to beat both Alabama and South Carolina. A loss in either game probably puts them out and Boise State in.
That leaves 3 at-large bids. Barring major upsets: Stanford, Ohio State, and either LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas would finish second in their respective BCS conferences, with their only losses coming at the hands of the conference/division champion. They would all be ahead in the line for at-large bids to a BCS game. I do not see how there is room for another undefeated non-AQ team with a miniscule fan base, in a tiny market (or as an after-thought in a large market), even if they are ranked #3 or 4.
LSU plays at Arkansas with the winner being in prime position for the 2nd bid from the SEC. Or if Alabama beats Auburn, they would be in position to do so. Or if Auburn does not get the auto-bid by winning the SEC title game, then they would be in position to get a bid. I do not see any BCS bowl game "taking the hit" by selecting TCU/Boise State over Ohio State or a second SEC team. Stanford might be the only school that a BCS bowl would even consider leaving out in favor of TCU.
Talk about fan bases, talk about tradition, talk about TV ratings, talk about worthy teams: Stanford, Ohio State, and LSU have it. No one could argue that an 11-1 LSU, Stanford, or Ohio State whose only losses come to top 6 teams isn't as worthy as an undefeated TCU or Boise State who never had an opportunity to lose to a top 6 team. In my mind, this is the place where strength of schedule argument holds sway (and no non-BCS school can cry about it): if Stanford's only loss is to #1 Oregon or LSU's to #2 Auburn, how could they be any less worthy than a team who didn't play a team in the top 10? I believe that Boise State or TCU could go 11-1 or 12-0 in a BCS conference, but there is a big difference in 11-1 and 12-0 this season: it is the difference between Oregon and Stanford, or Auburn and LSU. Would they be the undefeated Oregon team, or would they be the 1-loss Stanford? Who knows.
I do know that Boise State, TCU, Stanford, LSU, and Ohio State all have something in common: they beat every team they played outside the top 10. All of them are worthy of BCS games at this point. Only 2 of them have a legitimate argument for the National Championship though, and they aren't the teams from the BCS conferences. The problem is that only 4 of the 5 can go to a BCS game and perhaps none of them can go to the National Championship.
The problem wouldn't be any easier in a 4 or 8-team playoff system either, unless the automatic bid for Big East and ACC teams was removed. Knowing that a playoff is not possible, I would simply remove the automatic bid for any conference and state: the 7 highest-rated conference champions (or, starting next season, 6) get BCS bids. Then it wouldn't be Pittsburgh and TCU or Boise State, it would be TCU and Boise State. If a conference can't get their champion in the top 15, how good is their champion/conference anyway?
BYU scored on all 7 possessions when they crossed the 50-yard line: 2 field goals and 5 TDs. This was the best game so far this season at finishing drives.
BYU-Utah Common Opponents
UNLV:
Utah 38-10 home win, BYU 55-7 home win; advantage BYU
New Mexico:
Utah 56-14 road win, BYU 40-7 home win; advantage Utah
Wyoming:
Utah 30-6 road win, BYU 25-20 home win; advantage Utah
Colorado State:
Utah 59-6 home win, BYU 49-10 road win; even
Air Force:
Utah 28-23 road win, BYU 35-14 road loss; advantage Utah
TCU:
Utah 47-7 home loss, BYU 31-3 road loss; advantage BYU (if you can call a 28-point loss an advantage)
SDSU:
Utah 38-34 road win, BYU 24-21 home win; advantage Utah
In the battle of head-to-head opponents, Utah leads 4-2-1. Utah is 6-1 against those opponents and BYU is 5-2.
The (Even Bigger) BCS Mess
A lot has been made about which undefeated non-AQ team would finish ahead of the other. It seems obvious now that Boise State will be the one on top, should both teams go undefeated.
A lot has been made about potential 1-loss teams jumping them. The buffer between the undefeated non-AQ teams and the 1-loss BCS teams is sufficient, given that none of them have a marquee matchup left this season to jump them.
A lot has been made about a chance a non-AQ team could play for the National Championship. It is obviously possible, should Auburn or Oregon lose a game.
People are starting to come around to the fact I would like to discuss, which I feel is the biggest mess of all: could we have an undefeated non-AQ team ranked in the top 5 not get into a BCS bowl? Boise State went undefeated two years ago and got snubbed, but they were ranked 9th at the time. So here is the math, as I see it:
6 BCS conference champions go to a BCS game. Mo predicts Oregon, Oklahoma (beats OK State then Nebraska: they don't call him Big Game Bob for no reason), Wisconsin (wins a tie-breaker with Michigan State and/or Ohio State), South Carolina (beats Auburn: tough for Auburn to beat them TWICE this season, the first was a one TD win at Auburn in September), Virginia Tech (beats NC State or Florida State), and Pittsburgh (I believe they can beat West Virginia in the backyard brawl)
1 undefeated non-AQ team goes to a BCS game. Mo has always been on the Boise State bandwagon. I believe they have a very good chance to play for a National Championship, given that I believe Auburn will struggle to beat both Alabama and South Carolina. A loss in either game probably puts them out and Boise State in.
That leaves 3 at-large bids. Barring major upsets: Stanford, Ohio State, and either LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas would finish second in their respective BCS conferences, with their only losses coming at the hands of the conference/division champion. They would all be ahead in the line for at-large bids to a BCS game. I do not see how there is room for another undefeated non-AQ team with a miniscule fan base, in a tiny market (or as an after-thought in a large market), even if they are ranked #3 or 4.
LSU plays at Arkansas with the winner being in prime position for the 2nd bid from the SEC. Or if Alabama beats Auburn, they would be in position to do so. Or if Auburn does not get the auto-bid by winning the SEC title game, then they would be in position to get a bid. I do not see any BCS bowl game "taking the hit" by selecting TCU/Boise State over Ohio State or a second SEC team. Stanford might be the only school that a BCS bowl would even consider leaving out in favor of TCU.
Talk about fan bases, talk about tradition, talk about TV ratings, talk about worthy teams: Stanford, Ohio State, and LSU have it. No one could argue that an 11-1 LSU, Stanford, or Ohio State whose only losses come to top 6 teams isn't as worthy as an undefeated TCU or Boise State who never had an opportunity to lose to a top 6 team. In my mind, this is the place where strength of schedule argument holds sway (and no non-BCS school can cry about it): if Stanford's only loss is to #1 Oregon or LSU's to #2 Auburn, how could they be any less worthy than a team who didn't play a team in the top 10? I believe that Boise State or TCU could go 11-1 or 12-0 in a BCS conference, but there is a big difference in 11-1 and 12-0 this season: it is the difference between Oregon and Stanford, or Auburn and LSU. Would they be the undefeated Oregon team, or would they be the 1-loss Stanford? Who knows.
I do know that Boise State, TCU, Stanford, LSU, and Ohio State all have something in common: they beat every team they played outside the top 10. All of them are worthy of BCS games at this point. Only 2 of them have a legitimate argument for the National Championship though, and they aren't the teams from the BCS conferences. The problem is that only 4 of the 5 can go to a BCS game and perhaps none of them can go to the National Championship.
The problem wouldn't be any easier in a 4 or 8-team playoff system either, unless the automatic bid for Big East and ACC teams was removed. Knowing that a playoff is not possible, I would simply remove the automatic bid for any conference and state: the 7 highest-rated conference champions (or, starting next season, 6) get BCS bids. Then it wouldn't be Pittsburgh and TCU or Boise State, it would be TCU and Boise State. If a conference can't get their champion in the top 15, how good is their champion/conference anyway?
New Mexico-BYU Football Recap 2010
Well, again, I was slow on the blogging this weekend and you have probably all read what you have wanted to read about BYU's 40-7 win over New Mexico. So I will hit up a couple of the things that impressed me (both positively and negatively) about the game.
Joshua Quezada
He will be as good as Harvey Unga was. He runs a lot like Unga. Not fast, but very quick, with a bruising style and an ability to cut and accelerate through a hole and make defenders look foolish. He finished with 15 carries for 107 yards and a TD. He is going to be really good.
Cody Hoffman
Speaking of going to be good, the TD catch that Hoffman made on the goalline in the third quarter was the best catch I have seen by a BYU WR in a long time, perhaps going back to Kaipo McGuire in the 1996 season when he had a couple of humdingers (note: I didn't say by a BYU player, Harline and Pitta had some highlight reel catches the past few years and JJ DiLuigi makes one a week, it seems, though he is usually out of bounds on those grabs...). He literally stole the ball in mid-air, mid-jump from the DB who was in better position and had his hands on the ball. Plus his return skills make O'Neill Chambers jealous. He just needs to tighten up on his ball security a bit.
Fast Start
BYU got off to another two score lead in the first quarter, for the 5th time in 6 games. I realize it has been against mostly bad competition, but they did it to SDSU as well, which is turning out to be a better and better win with each passing week. After the bye week (when the competition really diminished), they even learned how to step on the gas and take the opponent out of the game in the second quarter instead of clinging to a lead for the final 3 quarters.
Heaps as a Runner
The QB draw and the option were actually quite successful this past weekend. On the goalline, Heaps had a beautiful fake pitch before cutting up the middle for his first ever rushing TD. He has shown that he is not just a statue back there and will give some teams something to think about in the future.
Turnovers
BYU's defense forced 4 turnovers, including several in the red zone. 3 interceptions is a lot. Having one by the nose tackle is impressive. For BYU, having two picks by defensive backs in the same game is also a rarity. Who knew Andrew Rich was such a ball-hawking safety?
Penalties
This is by far the biggest complaint for any BYU fan: 14 penalties for 141 yards. That is a lot of penalties. It is even more yards. When a team averages 10 yards/penalty, they are doing a lot of really bad things. Perhaps New Mexico just brings out the worst in the Cougars. Perhaps even worse than Utah? We shall see soon!
Joshua Quezada
He will be as good as Harvey Unga was. He runs a lot like Unga. Not fast, but very quick, with a bruising style and an ability to cut and accelerate through a hole and make defenders look foolish. He finished with 15 carries for 107 yards and a TD. He is going to be really good.
Cody Hoffman
Speaking of going to be good, the TD catch that Hoffman made on the goalline in the third quarter was the best catch I have seen by a BYU WR in a long time, perhaps going back to Kaipo McGuire in the 1996 season when he had a couple of humdingers (note: I didn't say by a BYU player, Harline and Pitta had some highlight reel catches the past few years and JJ DiLuigi makes one a week, it seems, though he is usually out of bounds on those grabs...). He literally stole the ball in mid-air, mid-jump from the DB who was in better position and had his hands on the ball. Plus his return skills make O'Neill Chambers jealous. He just needs to tighten up on his ball security a bit.
Fast Start
BYU got off to another two score lead in the first quarter, for the 5th time in 6 games. I realize it has been against mostly bad competition, but they did it to SDSU as well, which is turning out to be a better and better win with each passing week. After the bye week (when the competition really diminished), they even learned how to step on the gas and take the opponent out of the game in the second quarter instead of clinging to a lead for the final 3 quarters.
Heaps as a Runner
The QB draw and the option were actually quite successful this past weekend. On the goalline, Heaps had a beautiful fake pitch before cutting up the middle for his first ever rushing TD. He has shown that he is not just a statue back there and will give some teams something to think about in the future.
Turnovers
BYU's defense forced 4 turnovers, including several in the red zone. 3 interceptions is a lot. Having one by the nose tackle is impressive. For BYU, having two picks by defensive backs in the same game is also a rarity. Who knew Andrew Rich was such a ball-hawking safety?
Penalties
This is by far the biggest complaint for any BYU fan: 14 penalties for 141 yards. That is a lot of penalties. It is even more yards. When a team averages 10 yards/penalty, they are doing a lot of really bad things. Perhaps New Mexico just brings out the worst in the Cougars. Perhaps even worse than Utah? We shall see soon!
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Twelve
I said: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Actual: Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Note: Air Force struggled early. UNLV played well, taking a lead into halftime. Eventually, the better team pulled it out.
I said: CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Actual: Wyoming 44, CSU 0
Note: I could not have been more wrong about this game. CSU just quit when they got down early. If I were a CSU fan I would be disgusted with how the Rams performed in a rivalry game. The CSU fans that I know are!
I said: Utah 31, SDSU 24
Actual: Utah 38, SDSU 34
Note: I may have been close on the score, but I was totally off on how it played out. I did not think Utah had the heart to come from behind. Twice. They were down 20-3, 27-10, and 34-24 and won the game. In the fourth quarter they blocked a punt to set up the winning score. Then they intercepted SDSU inside the 20-yard line and then again in the end zone in the final 6 minutes to preserve the 4-point win. They showed a lot of guts. The defense and special teams stepped up when they needed to. The RBs took over the game when he needed to. Jordan Wynn may have had the glossy stats, but, when the game was on the line, Asiata and Wide were carrying most of the load. He may get there eventually, but he is not there now. Ute fans better hope he gets there soon: they will need a QB they can count on at crunch time if they have any hope of winning the Pac 12!
Actual: Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Note: Air Force struggled early. UNLV played well, taking a lead into halftime. Eventually, the better team pulled it out.
I said: CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Actual: Wyoming 44, CSU 0
Note: I could not have been more wrong about this game. CSU just quit when they got down early. If I were a CSU fan I would be disgusted with how the Rams performed in a rivalry game. The CSU fans that I know are!
I said: Utah 31, SDSU 24
Actual: Utah 38, SDSU 34
Note: I may have been close on the score, but I was totally off on how it played out. I did not think Utah had the heart to come from behind. Twice. They were down 20-3, 27-10, and 34-24 and won the game. In the fourth quarter they blocked a punt to set up the winning score. Then they intercepted SDSU inside the 20-yard line and then again in the end zone in the final 6 minutes to preserve the 4-point win. They showed a lot of guts. The defense and special teams stepped up when they needed to. The RBs took over the game when he needed to. Jordan Wynn may have had the glossy stats, but, when the game was on the line, Asiata and Wide were carrying most of the load. He may get there eventually, but he is not there now. Ute fans better hope he gets there soon: they will need a QB they can count on at crunch time if they have any hope of winning the Pac 12!
Friday, November 19, 2010
Chicago St-BYU 2010 Preview and TV News
Looking at Chicago State
The Chicago State Cougars come to Provo from the Great West Conference (Utah Valley and UT-Pan American in the same conference). They joined the conference prior to the 2009-2010 season. They were 9-23 last season. They are 1-2 on the year, with their lone win against a Division II school. They lost by 33 at DePaul and by 40 at Notre Dame. This season, they have 4 players averaging double digits in points: PG Christian Wall, PF Hajji Martin, SG Victor Scott, and SF Carl Montgomery. Montgomery also averages nearly 10 boards per game as well. Based on statistics alone, I would bank on Montgomery to be the "Tai Wesley" of this game. They are more of a past-paced high-octane offense like BYU, so it should be a "fun" game to watch, i.e. a lot of points scored.
What to Expect from BYU
Will there be some hangover from a physical and emotional game against Utah State? Almost certainly. But they did enough things poorly that I expect Coach Rose can find at least 5 or 6 guys on his 12-man bench that want to go out and bust their balls to show that they are better than they were on Wednesday. Will they shoot better? I anticipate so. Will they play better post defense? Yes, part of that is that the competition is a lot lower. Will they play more team-oriented on offense? It would be a very bad sign if they didn't.
Prediction
BYU will win this game handily. I would not be surprised to see BYU score in the 90's in this game. I am not sure they will clamp down on Chicago State's "streetball" style as well as they would like to, but it will be sufficient enough for a 20-point win. Depth, altitude, skill will prevail. Flat out athletic ability is probably in favor of the team with 13 of 15 guys from Chicago area high schools. BYU 89, Chicago State 67.
Football and Basketball Games on TV
The BYU basketball game is at 8pm and available on BYU-TV. It will also be available on the BYU-TV web site. You have to create a login for the site to use it, but it's a great option to watch this and future game (including a lot of football and basketball games NEXT season). Future games on BYU-TV this season include next Tuesday against Mississippi Valley State (7pm), Hawaii on Saturday, December 4th (4pm), and Arizona on Saturday, December 11th (4pm).
The BYU football game is at 4pm and is available on the Mtn. If you do not have the Mtn. Network on your cable/satellite package, you can often find games on Channelsurfing.net (I have watched several games there this season). There are a few other sites that you can occasionally find games at, but that has been the one I have had the greatest luck with. I do not know if it is on the lineup tomorrow, but feel free to check it out. No, they do not pay me for the free advertising...there aren't enough of you reading this for it to be worth their while! Tell your friends and family and fellow BYU fans. About my blog, that is, not channelsurfing.net...although you can tell them about that too...
The Chicago State Cougars come to Provo from the Great West Conference (Utah Valley and UT-Pan American in the same conference). They joined the conference prior to the 2009-2010 season. They were 9-23 last season. They are 1-2 on the year, with their lone win against a Division II school. They lost by 33 at DePaul and by 40 at Notre Dame. This season, they have 4 players averaging double digits in points: PG Christian Wall, PF Hajji Martin, SG Victor Scott, and SF Carl Montgomery. Montgomery also averages nearly 10 boards per game as well. Based on statistics alone, I would bank on Montgomery to be the "Tai Wesley" of this game. They are more of a past-paced high-octane offense like BYU, so it should be a "fun" game to watch, i.e. a lot of points scored.
What to Expect from BYU
Will there be some hangover from a physical and emotional game against Utah State? Almost certainly. But they did enough things poorly that I expect Coach Rose can find at least 5 or 6 guys on his 12-man bench that want to go out and bust their balls to show that they are better than they were on Wednesday. Will they shoot better? I anticipate so. Will they play better post defense? Yes, part of that is that the competition is a lot lower. Will they play more team-oriented on offense? It would be a very bad sign if they didn't.
Prediction
BYU will win this game handily. I would not be surprised to see BYU score in the 90's in this game. I am not sure they will clamp down on Chicago State's "streetball" style as well as they would like to, but it will be sufficient enough for a 20-point win. Depth, altitude, skill will prevail. Flat out athletic ability is probably in favor of the team with 13 of 15 guys from Chicago area high schools. BYU 89, Chicago State 67.
Football and Basketball Games on TV
The BYU basketball game is at 8pm and available on BYU-TV. It will also be available on the BYU-TV web site. You have to create a login for the site to use it, but it's a great option to watch this and future game (including a lot of football and basketball games NEXT season). Future games on BYU-TV this season include next Tuesday against Mississippi Valley State (7pm), Hawaii on Saturday, December 4th (4pm), and Arizona on Saturday, December 11th (4pm).
The BYU football game is at 4pm and is available on the Mtn. If you do not have the Mtn. Network on your cable/satellite package, you can often find games on Channelsurfing.net (I have watched several games there this season). There are a few other sites that you can occasionally find games at, but that has been the one I have had the greatest luck with. I do not know if it is on the lineup tomorrow, but feel free to check it out. No, they do not pay me for the free advertising...there aren't enough of you reading this for it to be worth their while! Tell your friends and family and fellow BYU fans. About my blog, that is, not channelsurfing.net...although you can tell them about that too...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
New Mexico-BYU Prediction, 2010
BYU Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Well, there are signs that BYU's offense is having fun and feeling good about their progress. They have demonstrated much more balance coming out of the bye week than they have in any game since the first game of the season. In the first quarter of the CSU game (before it got out of hand), they ran 9 times and threw 6. Against UNLV it was 17 runs to 9 passes. Against Wyoming, just before the bye, it was 15-4. So they have a more even play-calling early on. Heaps was 15-20 for 242 yards and 4 TDs against CSU and 19-31 with 294 yards and 2 TDs against UNLV. He is clearly more comfortable coming off of the bye.
New Mexico's defense is just plain bad: the worst BYU has played yet (and they scored 55 and 49 in the past two games against less bad defenses). They give up 245 rushing yards/game (120th), 218 passing yards/game (65th), 42.6 points/game (119th), get .9 sacks/game (117th), and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs (108th). Their one strength is red zone defense where they are 31st in the country, allowing points on only 78% of opponents trips to the red zone. It must be all of the practice they get down there: they are last in the country in opponent trips to the red zone! New Mexico has only held one opponent to less than 30 points. Even in their lone win on the season they gave up 31 points.
BYU's Defense vs. New Mexico's Offense
It is tough to take a statistical comparison here: BYU's defense the last 5 games is a polar opposite of BYU's defense of the first 5 games. So, statistically speaking, it isn't a great defense for the season. But no defense in the country has been better the past 5 weeks against the run than BYU's, which includes games against SDSU and TCU (two of the better rushing attacks in the country). BYU hasn't given up any points in the first quarter since the lone first quarter field goal they gave up to TCU. Neither of the last two opponents has scored until the fourth quarter. In both of those games those teams were trailing by at least 42 points when they finally scored. It is an inspired defense right now.
The Lobo offense has not been good by any means, but it is not the complete train wreck that their defense has been. Over the past 4 games they have been averaging 22 points scored. The 6 games prior, they had been scoring 12.5 points. So it is getting better, but they still aren't moving the ball consistently. And 22 points is not very much compared to the 42 their defense is giving up.
Prediction
All signs would indicate that BYU should blow New Mexico out even worse than CSU or UNLV. It is at home, against an even worse opponent. But I would say that New Mexico always plays up for BYU, no matter how good BYU is or how bad New Mexico is. Knowing this is their last crack at BYU, I expect them to give it their all and play well. It will not be good enough to win, or even keep the game close, but it will be enough to frustrate Cougar fans expecting a wide and comfortable margin by the second quarter. BYU will probably focus more attention on the run game, where New Mexico has been the weakest. It takes longer to score that way, however, i.e. fewer points to be scored. That could open up the potential for big plays in the passing game, except for the expected gusty winds (25-40 mph) and precipitation. Inclement weather can be the great equalizer. BYU 35, New Mexico 13.
Well, there are signs that BYU's offense is having fun and feeling good about their progress. They have demonstrated much more balance coming out of the bye week than they have in any game since the first game of the season. In the first quarter of the CSU game (before it got out of hand), they ran 9 times and threw 6. Against UNLV it was 17 runs to 9 passes. Against Wyoming, just before the bye, it was 15-4. So they have a more even play-calling early on. Heaps was 15-20 for 242 yards and 4 TDs against CSU and 19-31 with 294 yards and 2 TDs against UNLV. He is clearly more comfortable coming off of the bye.
New Mexico's defense is just plain bad: the worst BYU has played yet (and they scored 55 and 49 in the past two games against less bad defenses). They give up 245 rushing yards/game (120th), 218 passing yards/game (65th), 42.6 points/game (119th), get .9 sacks/game (117th), and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs (108th). Their one strength is red zone defense where they are 31st in the country, allowing points on only 78% of opponents trips to the red zone. It must be all of the practice they get down there: they are last in the country in opponent trips to the red zone! New Mexico has only held one opponent to less than 30 points. Even in their lone win on the season they gave up 31 points.
BYU's Defense vs. New Mexico's Offense
It is tough to take a statistical comparison here: BYU's defense the last 5 games is a polar opposite of BYU's defense of the first 5 games. So, statistically speaking, it isn't a great defense for the season. But no defense in the country has been better the past 5 weeks against the run than BYU's, which includes games against SDSU and TCU (two of the better rushing attacks in the country). BYU hasn't given up any points in the first quarter since the lone first quarter field goal they gave up to TCU. Neither of the last two opponents has scored until the fourth quarter. In both of those games those teams were trailing by at least 42 points when they finally scored. It is an inspired defense right now.
The Lobo offense has not been good by any means, but it is not the complete train wreck that their defense has been. Over the past 4 games they have been averaging 22 points scored. The 6 games prior, they had been scoring 12.5 points. So it is getting better, but they still aren't moving the ball consistently. And 22 points is not very much compared to the 42 their defense is giving up.
Prediction
All signs would indicate that BYU should blow New Mexico out even worse than CSU or UNLV. It is at home, against an even worse opponent. But I would say that New Mexico always plays up for BYU, no matter how good BYU is or how bad New Mexico is. Knowing this is their last crack at BYU, I expect them to give it their all and play well. It will not be good enough to win, or even keep the game close, but it will be enough to frustrate Cougar fans expecting a wide and comfortable margin by the second quarter. BYU will probably focus more attention on the run game, where New Mexico has been the weakest. It takes longer to score that way, however, i.e. fewer points to be scored. That could open up the potential for big plays in the passing game, except for the expected gusty winds (25-40 mph) and precipitation. Inclement weather can be the great equalizer. BYU 35, New Mexico 13.
Utah State-BYU 2010 Hoops Recap
A win is a win, and BYU fans must be content with that, and Utah State fans must lament that it was not their win. This was an ugly game, to say the least, which is not uncommon this early in the season. Poor shooting, defensive lapses, rushing the offense, bad calls on both sides of the court (the refs are rusty too), etc. The final 2 minutes, BYU's offense looked completely discombobulated. Tai Wesley played most of the game like a bully (but within the rules of the game) and was punished for it late in the game with his fifth (and deemed flagrant) foul for throwing an elbow.
Lucky vs. Good
BYU had plenty of luck in this game. The foul on Wesley was certainly not questionable/lucky, the man intentionally threw his elbows around and it connected with a BYU player (the connecting was not intentional, but the elbows flying through the air was), but they were lucky that Chris Collinsworth showed no regard for his own safety in putting himself so close to the elbow. They were lucky that Utah State missed the front end of several consecutive 1-and-1 situations. They were lucky that a few fouls got called that could easily have not been in the waning minutes. They were lucky that Ryan Green was only 5-6 on threes (OK, that may not sound lucky, perhaps Utah State was lucky he made 5 in a row, but he missed the one in the crucial minute).
Post Problems
Tai Wesley is a good player. But he is far from an elite big man in college basketball and he worked BYU to the tune of 9-11 shooting, 19 points, and 8 rebounds. Brady Jardine is an average big man and he had 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. And this happened with only BYU's best big defensive big men on the floor as weaker defensive Center Brandon Davies was ill and played only one minute. Contrast the Aggies post performance to BYU's big men: Hartsock had 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks, Collinsworth had only 1 field goal and 7 rebounds, Anderson had 1 rebound and 2 points (and two very ugly free throw misses), and Magnusson had 3 rebounds and 1 point. They were drastically outperformed by an above average group. Can they contain South Florida's much more athletic big men? What about New Mexico or San Diego State?
Late-Game Offense
It appears the team read Jimmer's press clippings in the off-season. With the game on the line, they were all content to just stand around and try to give Jimmer the ball and let him take Utah State 1 on 5. Jimmer must have read them too, apparently, as he actually tried to do it. BYU only scored one field goal in the last 6 minutes of the game. There were a lot of long jump shots, fadeaway three-pointers, and short-armed layups in the closing minutes. They did go 6 for 6 from the free throw line, so it appears they can close out games that way. But they need to have the lead to salt the game away at the line. That is a bit worrisome: they will need to find a better way to get better shots.
Forcing the Issue
Jimmer took a lot of bad shots. It reminded me of the game at New Mexico last season, when Jimmer thought he could do no wrong and ended up 8 for 21. Not surprisingly, he was also 8 for 21 against Utah State. The main difference was that he was 5 for 14 from 3-point range against the Aggies (where he was 4-6 against New Mexico). That means not only was he throwing it near the rim, but he was mostly chucking it up from outside. It would be better if he took 14 2-pointers and 7 3-pointers than the other way around.
Good News
BYU shot horribly, did not defend very well in the post, had a usual starter only play 1 minute because of an illness, and they still won a game against an NCAA Tournament team from a year ago that shot 48%, including 64% from 3-point land. This team will get better. And it will definitely need to! This was one of 6 or 7 potentially difficult non-conference games and they are 1-0 in those games. Next Friday against a South Florida squad that went to the NIT last season is the next tough one to get through. South Florida is having a slow start this season, which may help BYU. They won't have the home crowd on their side in that one!
Lucky vs. Good
BYU had plenty of luck in this game. The foul on Wesley was certainly not questionable/lucky, the man intentionally threw his elbows around and it connected with a BYU player (the connecting was not intentional, but the elbows flying through the air was), but they were lucky that Chris Collinsworth showed no regard for his own safety in putting himself so close to the elbow. They were lucky that Utah State missed the front end of several consecutive 1-and-1 situations. They were lucky that a few fouls got called that could easily have not been in the waning minutes. They were lucky that Ryan Green was only 5-6 on threes (OK, that may not sound lucky, perhaps Utah State was lucky he made 5 in a row, but he missed the one in the crucial minute).
Post Problems
Tai Wesley is a good player. But he is far from an elite big man in college basketball and he worked BYU to the tune of 9-11 shooting, 19 points, and 8 rebounds. Brady Jardine is an average big man and he had 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. And this happened with only BYU's best big defensive big men on the floor as weaker defensive Center Brandon Davies was ill and played only one minute. Contrast the Aggies post performance to BYU's big men: Hartsock had 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks, Collinsworth had only 1 field goal and 7 rebounds, Anderson had 1 rebound and 2 points (and two very ugly free throw misses), and Magnusson had 3 rebounds and 1 point. They were drastically outperformed by an above average group. Can they contain South Florida's much more athletic big men? What about New Mexico or San Diego State?
Late-Game Offense
It appears the team read Jimmer's press clippings in the off-season. With the game on the line, they were all content to just stand around and try to give Jimmer the ball and let him take Utah State 1 on 5. Jimmer must have read them too, apparently, as he actually tried to do it. BYU only scored one field goal in the last 6 minutes of the game. There were a lot of long jump shots, fadeaway three-pointers, and short-armed layups in the closing minutes. They did go 6 for 6 from the free throw line, so it appears they can close out games that way. But they need to have the lead to salt the game away at the line. That is a bit worrisome: they will need to find a better way to get better shots.
Forcing the Issue
Jimmer took a lot of bad shots. It reminded me of the game at New Mexico last season, when Jimmer thought he could do no wrong and ended up 8 for 21. Not surprisingly, he was also 8 for 21 against Utah State. The main difference was that he was 5 for 14 from 3-point range against the Aggies (where he was 4-6 against New Mexico). That means not only was he throwing it near the rim, but he was mostly chucking it up from outside. It would be better if he took 14 2-pointers and 7 3-pointers than the other way around.
Good News
BYU shot horribly, did not defend very well in the post, had a usual starter only play 1 minute because of an illness, and they still won a game against an NCAA Tournament team from a year ago that shot 48%, including 64% from 3-point land. This team will get better. And it will definitely need to! This was one of 6 or 7 potentially difficult non-conference games and they are 1-0 in those games. Next Friday against a South Florida squad that went to the NIT last season is the next tough one to get through. South Florida is having a slow start this season, which may help BYU. They won't have the home crowd on their side in that one!
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Twelve
Air Force at UNLV (Thursday Night)
This is the final game of the season for Air Force. They have a chance, a very good chance, to get to 8 wins again prior to a bowl game, which means they could get to 9 wins for the first time since 2007. It will be building towards a better team next season, entering a weaker MWC, and, perhaps, a 10-win season. UNLV has a short week to prepare for the option attack. I think there is some pride left in the Rebels and they will play well. The game against Wyoming last week is a testament to that. But Air Force is on a mission, and a loss isn't in the cards. In a game that's closer than it probably should be: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Colorado State at Wyoming
The CSU Rams were playing decently well of late until the BYU game when everything fell apart. Wyoming has lost 6 in a row, mostly with poor defense. The offense is coming around. This is a huge rivalry game, for those who do not know. I think this will be a wide open game and a lot of points on the board, both teams have showed flashes of brilliance on offense throughout the season, but neither of them has played defense to speak of. CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Utah at San Diego State
To me, for this game the biggest question is: what is Utah's mindset? If their heads are right, they will come out and beat San Diego State soundly. Last week, their heads weren't right and they were blown out of the water by a team they should have probably beat. The Utes are a very fundamentally sound team, but it is their mentals, not their fundamentals, that will decide this game. SDSU can come up with whatever game plan they want and play as well as they want, but if the Utes are playing well, it won't matter. I think a lot will be known by the opening kickoff. If the Utes pin SDSU deep or have a big return of their own, their heads are back in it. If SDSU manages a decent return (like 30-yard line or better) or if Utah is penalized for an illegal block on their return, then they are still down and out. The former will result in a comfortable win, 10-13 points. The latter will have disastrous results for them and they will be blown out the water in a game similar to Notre Dame. I believe the Utes will regroup for this one. I think SDSU will play them well, play them tough, and Utah will have to gut it out. I will be interested to see the Aztec rushing attack. But I think they will go to Asiata early and he will carry the load in the first half. Matt Asiata didn't apply for a 6th year of eligibility to watch the season go down in flames: he will step up. Utah 31, SDSU 24. This result means that BYU will go to the Armed Forces Bowl, regardless of how they finish the season (Vegas takes Utah, Poinsettia takes SDSU, Independence takes Air Force, and Armed Forces is left with BYU).
This is the final game of the season for Air Force. They have a chance, a very good chance, to get to 8 wins again prior to a bowl game, which means they could get to 9 wins for the first time since 2007. It will be building towards a better team next season, entering a weaker MWC, and, perhaps, a 10-win season. UNLV has a short week to prepare for the option attack. I think there is some pride left in the Rebels and they will play well. The game against Wyoming last week is a testament to that. But Air Force is on a mission, and a loss isn't in the cards. In a game that's closer than it probably should be: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Colorado State at Wyoming
The CSU Rams were playing decently well of late until the BYU game when everything fell apart. Wyoming has lost 6 in a row, mostly with poor defense. The offense is coming around. This is a huge rivalry game, for those who do not know. I think this will be a wide open game and a lot of points on the board, both teams have showed flashes of brilliance on offense throughout the season, but neither of them has played defense to speak of. CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Utah at San Diego State
To me, for this game the biggest question is: what is Utah's mindset? If their heads are right, they will come out and beat San Diego State soundly. Last week, their heads weren't right and they were blown out of the water by a team they should have probably beat. The Utes are a very fundamentally sound team, but it is their mentals, not their fundamentals, that will decide this game. SDSU can come up with whatever game plan they want and play as well as they want, but if the Utes are playing well, it won't matter. I think a lot will be known by the opening kickoff. If the Utes pin SDSU deep or have a big return of their own, their heads are back in it. If SDSU manages a decent return (like 30-yard line or better) or if Utah is penalized for an illegal block on their return, then they are still down and out. The former will result in a comfortable win, 10-13 points. The latter will have disastrous results for them and they will be blown out the water in a game similar to Notre Dame. I believe the Utes will regroup for this one. I think SDSU will play them well, play them tough, and Utah will have to gut it out. I will be interested to see the Aztec rushing attack. But I think they will go to Asiata early and he will carry the load in the first half. Matt Asiata didn't apply for a 6th year of eligibility to watch the season go down in flames: he will step up. Utah 31, SDSU 24. This result means that BYU will go to the Armed Forces Bowl, regardless of how they finish the season (Vegas takes Utah, Poinsettia takes SDSU, Independence takes Air Force, and Armed Forces is left with BYU).
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Twelve
Change of Heart
I hate to continue harping on it, but I've got to. I was right. All of the experts were wrong! Early last week, I wrote about the possibilities of Boise State jumping back over TCU. There was not a single "expert" who would even entertain the possibility, saying it was a nice ride for Boise State, but it is over. Now it looks more and more likely to happen. Pretty much every expert is now calling it a foregone conclusion (Desmond Howard is the first one to hurt his knee jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon). The final kick could come the last weekend of the season: Boise State gets to play its final game against Utah State, and Hawaii gets to play UNLV. With wins for the Rainbows and Broncos, the comeback would be solidified. The worst part about it is that TCU may even get left out of a BCS game because of it. Barring any major upsets, Boise State, ACC champ, Big East champ, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 SEC teams, 2 Pac 10 teams, and 1 Big XII team will make the BCS, which means no room at the inn for the Horned Frogs. What a shame to follow up a 12-0 regular season with a 12-0 regular season and not make a BCS game. TCU's best hope lies in a Big Ten shake-up, leaving only 1 Big Ten team going to a BCS game. All I know is that at least two top 10 teams will likely get left out of a BCS game, and TCU is very likely to be one of them.
Texas-Sized Politics!
After a couple of run-up-the-score games early in the year, TCU finally got hit by kharma. It eventually gets you every time. After claiming to never run up the score, Gary Patterson now takes his lobbying to ESPN Studios to try to convince people his team is better than their most recent effort. He tells them to look at the stats, not the scoreboard. If he wasn't such a jerk the past few seasons, I would probably feel sorry for the guy. I've watched his starters in with less than 5 minutes to go in too many blowouts to care that his team is getting the shaft.
Sparty? Really?
After Ohio State starting off as #2 in the country and losing only one game on the road to a top 10 opponent and Wisconsin rattling off 83 points in a single game, Michigan State actually looks like it has a great chance to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Currently it is a 3-way tie at the top, in which case the team with the highest BCS ranking represents the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, which would be Wisconsin. However, if it ends up a two-way tie and one of the teams is Michigan State, they will probably win the tie-breakers. After all of the talk about the quality of the Big Ten this season, Sparty might represent them in the Rose Bowl! This is a team that struggled against a Sun Belt team, needed OT to beat Notre Dame, and lost by 31 points just a week and a half ago. Well done, Big Ten. This is a reminder of why they are going to 12 teams and having a Championship Game: so they can be represented by someone who didn't luck out because of an easier conference schedule. Michigan State is a good team, but could you imagine them in the Rose Bowl against a great team like Boise State, TCU, or Stanford?
Who Needs the Top 5? Or Expensive TV Packages?
For a Saturday in which only 1 team in the top 5 will play, there sure are a lot of intriguing matchups to catch this Saturday, most of which are available through basic network channels or with an internet connection through most major service providers. Games are all available on ESPN3.com unless other network specified: Pitt at South Florida, Wisconsin at Michigan, NC State at UNC, Ole Miss at LSU (CBS), Ohio State at Iowa (ABC or ESPN3), Virginia Tech at Miami, Army vs. Notre Dame (NBC), Arkansas at Mississippi State, Florida State at Maryland (ABC-Regional or ESPN3), USC at Oregon State, Oklahoma at Baylor, and Nebraska at Texas A&M (ABC-Regional or ESPN3). If you would like to catch any of these games and do not have access to ESPN3.com through your service provider, give me a call and I can get you a login (if you know me and have my home phone number).
I hate to continue harping on it, but I've got to. I was right. All of the experts were wrong! Early last week, I wrote about the possibilities of Boise State jumping back over TCU. There was not a single "expert" who would even entertain the possibility, saying it was a nice ride for Boise State, but it is over. Now it looks more and more likely to happen. Pretty much every expert is now calling it a foregone conclusion (Desmond Howard is the first one to hurt his knee jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon). The final kick could come the last weekend of the season: Boise State gets to play its final game against Utah State, and Hawaii gets to play UNLV. With wins for the Rainbows and Broncos, the comeback would be solidified. The worst part about it is that TCU may even get left out of a BCS game because of it. Barring any major upsets, Boise State, ACC champ, Big East champ, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 SEC teams, 2 Pac 10 teams, and 1 Big XII team will make the BCS, which means no room at the inn for the Horned Frogs. What a shame to follow up a 12-0 regular season with a 12-0 regular season and not make a BCS game. TCU's best hope lies in a Big Ten shake-up, leaving only 1 Big Ten team going to a BCS game. All I know is that at least two top 10 teams will likely get left out of a BCS game, and TCU is very likely to be one of them.
Texas-Sized Politics!
After a couple of run-up-the-score games early in the year, TCU finally got hit by kharma. It eventually gets you every time. After claiming to never run up the score, Gary Patterson now takes his lobbying to ESPN Studios to try to convince people his team is better than their most recent effort. He tells them to look at the stats, not the scoreboard. If he wasn't such a jerk the past few seasons, I would probably feel sorry for the guy. I've watched his starters in with less than 5 minutes to go in too many blowouts to care that his team is getting the shaft.
Sparty? Really?
After Ohio State starting off as #2 in the country and losing only one game on the road to a top 10 opponent and Wisconsin rattling off 83 points in a single game, Michigan State actually looks like it has a great chance to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Currently it is a 3-way tie at the top, in which case the team with the highest BCS ranking represents the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, which would be Wisconsin. However, if it ends up a two-way tie and one of the teams is Michigan State, they will probably win the tie-breakers. After all of the talk about the quality of the Big Ten this season, Sparty might represent them in the Rose Bowl! This is a team that struggled against a Sun Belt team, needed OT to beat Notre Dame, and lost by 31 points just a week and a half ago. Well done, Big Ten. This is a reminder of why they are going to 12 teams and having a Championship Game: so they can be represented by someone who didn't luck out because of an easier conference schedule. Michigan State is a good team, but could you imagine them in the Rose Bowl against a great team like Boise State, TCU, or Stanford?
Who Needs the Top 5? Or Expensive TV Packages?
For a Saturday in which only 1 team in the top 5 will play, there sure are a lot of intriguing matchups to catch this Saturday, most of which are available through basic network channels or with an internet connection through most major service providers. Games are all available on ESPN3.com unless other network specified: Pitt at South Florida, Wisconsin at Michigan, NC State at UNC, Ole Miss at LSU (CBS), Ohio State at Iowa (ABC or ESPN3), Virginia Tech at Miami, Army vs. Notre Dame (NBC), Arkansas at Mississippi State, Florida State at Maryland (ABC-Regional or ESPN3), USC at Oregon State, Oklahoma at Baylor, and Nebraska at Texas A&M (ABC-Regional or ESPN3). If you would like to catch any of these games and do not have access to ESPN3.com through your service provider, give me a call and I can get you a login (if you know me and have my home phone number).
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Twelve
The Waffle
This week, Bronco Mendenhall was hesitant to say that Jake Heaps will be the number one QB going into next year, pointing out that Riley Nelson will be back next season. Why on earth would Bronco open up that can of worms again? I understand that Riley Nelson is a great guy, a tough competitor, and a born leader, but really, a starting QB in a pass-oriented offense, after the debacle we experienced early this season? I am not really waffling in where I stand on the issue, but it is worth discussin the merits of before I dismiss the idea as ridiculous.
Riley's Strengths
Perhaps it cannot be understated how important a leader is at QB. Just look up on the hill for that as Jordan Wynn watches idly as his offense collapses around him. Riley certainly looks and acts like a leader. He is a competitor. He commands the respect of his teammates. He is tough, gritty, emotional, and fiery. He also brings a running dimension at the QB position that BYU hasn't had since Brandon Doman.
Jake's Weaknesses
As with most young QBs, Jake Heaps is a little slow to release the ball. He does not always recognize coverages or blitzes. His pocket presence is not phenomenal (his not getting sacked the past two games is more of a reflection of not facing a pass rush than an improvement in that regard). Jake is not very fleet of foot, though he did have a nice option keeper last week.
Why Nelson's Skills Won't Matter in 2011
The running aspect of Riley Nelson is mitigated somewhat by the fact that BYU appears to have 3 solid RBs going in to next year in JJ DiLuigi, Bryan Kariya, and Josh Quezada. Ryan Folsom and David Foote have seen some time, and there are some supposedly stellar freshman backs redshirting while playing on the scout team this season as well. They do not need Riley's running abilities on a down-by-down basis as it appeared they would early in this season. As far as leadership and grit is concerned, next year's team will have gone through the struggles of this season together. They will have a chemistry that comes with battling in the trenches, while Riley Nelson, through no fault of his own, is not experiencing that adversity in the same way. There will be more experienced juniors and seniors, and even very experienced sophomores. Jake Heaps can also accept more leadership, a quality he certainly showed as HE put together a great recruiting class for Bronco last season. There will be no shortage of leadership. As far as grit: Kariya has shown some true grit at times. Nelson could be allowed to show that on a situational basis, without being responsible for full drives or in a starting role. Let Kariya provide that throughout the game.
Why Jake's Weaknesses Are Diminished
Jake's weaknesses are weaknesses of youth, not so much lack of physical tools weaknesses. He can make throws all over the field, other than the touch pass (all of Riley's throws look like touch passes, even when he is trying to rifle it). His ability to recognize coverages and blitzes will improve over time. His biggest weakness is inexperience: something he is overcoming this season and will certainly be vastly improved starting into next season.
What I Would Do
There is certainly no reason to sit Riley Nelson on the bench all of the time. Goalline situations or short third down situations, where BYU is going to run the ball 95% of the time, put Riley Nelson in. Defenses will have to play honest because Riley can roll out on a fake handoff. BYU could run some option looks in those situations. Plus, Riley is still a QB, so he could throw the ball. It opens up the offense a lot, without taking up too much of valuable practice time revamping the ENTIRE offense. Treat him like a backup QB. Name Jake Heaps the starter. Do not create a controversy that is not there: everyone knows that BYU needs a QB with Jake Heaps' skill set more than one with Riley Nelson's.
This week, Bronco Mendenhall was hesitant to say that Jake Heaps will be the number one QB going into next year, pointing out that Riley Nelson will be back next season. Why on earth would Bronco open up that can of worms again? I understand that Riley Nelson is a great guy, a tough competitor, and a born leader, but really, a starting QB in a pass-oriented offense, after the debacle we experienced early this season? I am not really waffling in where I stand on the issue, but it is worth discussin the merits of before I dismiss the idea as ridiculous.
Riley's Strengths
Perhaps it cannot be understated how important a leader is at QB. Just look up on the hill for that as Jordan Wynn watches idly as his offense collapses around him. Riley certainly looks and acts like a leader. He is a competitor. He commands the respect of his teammates. He is tough, gritty, emotional, and fiery. He also brings a running dimension at the QB position that BYU hasn't had since Brandon Doman.
Jake's Weaknesses
As with most young QBs, Jake Heaps is a little slow to release the ball. He does not always recognize coverages or blitzes. His pocket presence is not phenomenal (his not getting sacked the past two games is more of a reflection of not facing a pass rush than an improvement in that regard). Jake is not very fleet of foot, though he did have a nice option keeper last week.
Why Nelson's Skills Won't Matter in 2011
The running aspect of Riley Nelson is mitigated somewhat by the fact that BYU appears to have 3 solid RBs going in to next year in JJ DiLuigi, Bryan Kariya, and Josh Quezada. Ryan Folsom and David Foote have seen some time, and there are some supposedly stellar freshman backs redshirting while playing on the scout team this season as well. They do not need Riley's running abilities on a down-by-down basis as it appeared they would early in this season. As far as leadership and grit is concerned, next year's team will have gone through the struggles of this season together. They will have a chemistry that comes with battling in the trenches, while Riley Nelson, through no fault of his own, is not experiencing that adversity in the same way. There will be more experienced juniors and seniors, and even very experienced sophomores. Jake Heaps can also accept more leadership, a quality he certainly showed as HE put together a great recruiting class for Bronco last season. There will be no shortage of leadership. As far as grit: Kariya has shown some true grit at times. Nelson could be allowed to show that on a situational basis, without being responsible for full drives or in a starting role. Let Kariya provide that throughout the game.
Why Jake's Weaknesses Are Diminished
Jake's weaknesses are weaknesses of youth, not so much lack of physical tools weaknesses. He can make throws all over the field, other than the touch pass (all of Riley's throws look like touch passes, even when he is trying to rifle it). His ability to recognize coverages and blitzes will improve over time. His biggest weakness is inexperience: something he is overcoming this season and will certainly be vastly improved starting into next season.
What I Would Do
There is certainly no reason to sit Riley Nelson on the bench all of the time. Goalline situations or short third down situations, where BYU is going to run the ball 95% of the time, put Riley Nelson in. Defenses will have to play honest because Riley can roll out on a fake handoff. BYU could run some option looks in those situations. Plus, Riley is still a QB, so he could throw the ball. It opens up the offense a lot, without taking up too much of valuable practice time revamping the ENTIRE offense. Treat him like a backup QB. Name Jake Heaps the starter. Do not create a controversy that is not there: everyone knows that BYU needs a QB with Jake Heaps' skill set more than one with Riley Nelson's.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Utah State-BYU 2010 Hoops Prediction
The Game
For a few years now, this has been one of the early season hoops games I look forward to the most. It isn't the two sexiest teams in the country, but it is two very solid, fundamentally-sound, hard-working teams that always seem to play even with each other. The home team usually takes the spoils, mostly because the teams are so even, that homecourt is the advantage that can sway the outcome.
Utah State's Team
This was an NCAA Tournament at-large team from a season ago that is bringing back a lot of significant contributors this season. Tai Wesley is a bruiser down low at 6'7" and 240 pounds, and he has the experience necessary having logged significant minutes during his first three years in the program. Pooh Williams is another very experienced player. He is a very athletic wingman with a lot of speed: he is an instant fast break. Tyler Newbold is another consistent guard who handles the ball extremely well. He is entering his fourth year of significant playing time. Brady Jardine has mostly been a bench player for Utah State, providing a spark as an athletic forward entering his third year in the program. Newcomer Brockeither Pane is a slasher who knows how to get to the rim, and get to the free throw line. It appears F Nate Bendall will be unable to go in the game, which is a very good thing for BYU. Even without him, Utah State has good inside-outside balance, though the guard line this year is more of a penetrating group.
Utah State's Down-Sides
First and foremost, even with a lot of 3 and 4-year players/starters on their team, not a single one of Utah State's players has played at BYU before. Three years ago, a contract dispute meant no game. Two years ago it was played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake. Last year was in Logan. I believe the last time Utah State won a game at BYU was 1984: nobody on Utah State's roster was even alive back then. Even in BYU's 1-27 season in the 90's, the lone win was at home against Utah State. Secondly, playing Utah State early in the season will be a huge plus, as they are still struggling to fill the leadership void without Jared Quayle. Last season, he was capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them: he carried them right into the NCAA tournament. He led the Aggies with 22 points against BYU last season. Nate Bendall also had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU last season, and he is out with an injury. They are missing a lot of production from the team that pulled away late to beat BYU by 10 at home last season. Whether it was first game jitters or not, Utah State needed a furious run in 5 minutes into the second half to catch Weber State at home in the first game. No knock against Weber State but...any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, who brings back 3 (or 4 if you count Bendall) starters, should absolutely slaughter Weber State at home.
A Look at BYU
Jimmer played like Jimmer against Fresno State: 24 points and 8 assists. Hartsock provided another offensive threat. Abouo was very efficient on the offensive side. Defensively, Emery did what Emery does: play lockdown defense on the best perimeter player for the opposing team. Collinsworth controlled the boards. They played great team defense, getting their hands on a lot of balls, and forcing Fresno into bad shots. They will need more of that team defense Wednesday night against an offense very similar to BYU's defense: better than the sum of its parts.
Prediction
These in-state games tend to be lower-scoring than the teams average. The teams and coaching staffs are familiar with each other. They play physical with each other. There is usually enough hype surrounding the game that all of the extra energy and excitement usually translates into a lower shooting percentage because of rushed shots, or guys trying to be heroes. Neither team will be able to go as deep into their bench for as long as they did in their openers. The BYU rotation will probably tighten a little bit and give fans a preview of what the rotation will look like in the MWC season. I do expect home court to hold in this game, as long as Hartsock can slow Wesley down. Davies will not be able to do anything offensively or defensively in the paint. It will be up to Hartsock and Collinsworth to establish BYU in the paint on both sides of the floor. I am not even sure Davies will get the start because of his softness. Utah State will need to figure out some offense to win. No one can out-defense BYU at the Marriott Center: you have to outscore them. I am not sure they can do it in a hostile environment this early in the season. BYU 71, Utah State 58.
For a few years now, this has been one of the early season hoops games I look forward to the most. It isn't the two sexiest teams in the country, but it is two very solid, fundamentally-sound, hard-working teams that always seem to play even with each other. The home team usually takes the spoils, mostly because the teams are so even, that homecourt is the advantage that can sway the outcome.
Utah State's Team
This was an NCAA Tournament at-large team from a season ago that is bringing back a lot of significant contributors this season. Tai Wesley is a bruiser down low at 6'7" and 240 pounds, and he has the experience necessary having logged significant minutes during his first three years in the program. Pooh Williams is another very experienced player. He is a very athletic wingman with a lot of speed: he is an instant fast break. Tyler Newbold is another consistent guard who handles the ball extremely well. He is entering his fourth year of significant playing time. Brady Jardine has mostly been a bench player for Utah State, providing a spark as an athletic forward entering his third year in the program. Newcomer Brockeither Pane is a slasher who knows how to get to the rim, and get to the free throw line. It appears F Nate Bendall will be unable to go in the game, which is a very good thing for BYU. Even without him, Utah State has good inside-outside balance, though the guard line this year is more of a penetrating group.
Utah State's Down-Sides
First and foremost, even with a lot of 3 and 4-year players/starters on their team, not a single one of Utah State's players has played at BYU before. Three years ago, a contract dispute meant no game. Two years ago it was played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake. Last year was in Logan. I believe the last time Utah State won a game at BYU was 1984: nobody on Utah State's roster was even alive back then. Even in BYU's 1-27 season in the 90's, the lone win was at home against Utah State. Secondly, playing Utah State early in the season will be a huge plus, as they are still struggling to fill the leadership void without Jared Quayle. Last season, he was capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them: he carried them right into the NCAA tournament. He led the Aggies with 22 points against BYU last season. Nate Bendall also had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU last season, and he is out with an injury. They are missing a lot of production from the team that pulled away late to beat BYU by 10 at home last season. Whether it was first game jitters or not, Utah State needed a furious run in 5 minutes into the second half to catch Weber State at home in the first game. No knock against Weber State but...any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, who brings back 3 (or 4 if you count Bendall) starters, should absolutely slaughter Weber State at home.
A Look at BYU
Jimmer played like Jimmer against Fresno State: 24 points and 8 assists. Hartsock provided another offensive threat. Abouo was very efficient on the offensive side. Defensively, Emery did what Emery does: play lockdown defense on the best perimeter player for the opposing team. Collinsworth controlled the boards. They played great team defense, getting their hands on a lot of balls, and forcing Fresno into bad shots. They will need more of that team defense Wednesday night against an offense very similar to BYU's defense: better than the sum of its parts.
Prediction
These in-state games tend to be lower-scoring than the teams average. The teams and coaching staffs are familiar with each other. They play physical with each other. There is usually enough hype surrounding the game that all of the extra energy and excitement usually translates into a lower shooting percentage because of rushed shots, or guys trying to be heroes. Neither team will be able to go as deep into their bench for as long as they did in their openers. The BYU rotation will probably tighten a little bit and give fans a preview of what the rotation will look like in the MWC season. I do expect home court to hold in this game, as long as Hartsock can slow Wesley down. Davies will not be able to do anything offensively or defensively in the paint. It will be up to Hartsock and Collinsworth to establish BYU in the paint on both sides of the floor. I am not even sure Davies will get the start because of his softness. Utah State will need to figure out some offense to win. No one can out-defense BYU at the Marriott Center: you have to outscore them. I am not sure they can do it in a hostile environment this early in the season. BYU 71, Utah State 58.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Twelve
Crossing the 50
BYU had 8 meaningful trips into CSU territory. They fumbled twice and scored touchdowns on the other 6 for 42 points scored in 8 trips. BYU is doing much better at finishing drives. Which begs the question: is it BYU improving or is it the competition getting worse? The answer in that question possibly lies in Utah State and Colorado State. These are two similar teams, and BYU played both on the road. BYU got clobbered by one, BYU demolished the other. I realize this isn't the greatest of comparisons: rivalry game, attendance, CSU was already eliminated from bowl consideration, etc. It's the best we have, and BYU has improved dramatically. And trust me: there are a lot of CSU fans that hate BYU as much as Utah State fans do!
Sackcloth and Ashworth
I have been very hard on Luke Ashworth this season, with good reason I would like to say. However, the man deserves some props for stepping up the past 3 games for BYU. He has 14 catches, 253 yards, and 6 TDs in that span. After an atrocious first half to the year, he is turning in a phenomenal second half of the season. Someone needed to step up amongst the receivers and he was it. Way to go, Luke Ashworth!
Pac 12 Looking Scarier By The Minute
Notre Dame would be a mid-level Pac 12 team. At best. Its defense probably wouldn't even qualify as mid-level. This past weekend, however, they completely dominated Utah's offense, fully stocked with playmakers at RB, WR, and PR/KR. Next year, Utah's top 2 RBs graduate. Their leading WR graduates. 2 OL graduate. Their feared return man graduates. And news today is that the heir apparent at RB, Sausan Shakerin, has suffered a career-ending injury. They are entering the Pac 12 with some serious depth issues at the skill positions on offense. In other bad news: their left tackle, John Cullen, got worked most of the afternoon against Notre Dame. He is supposed to be their best returning OL next season...
TCU-Boise State Continued
Well, I continue to stay on the "Boise State will pass TCU in the BCS standings by season's end if both keep winning" wagon. Last week, all of the experts said it couldn't be done. However, this week, some of them have decided to stop being so overdramatic and sensationalistic and realize the possibility certainly exists. TCU lost 6% in the computer polls, 1.3% in the Harris Poll, and 1.5% in the Coaches Poll. Being idle this week means they will probably lose even more ground this week in polls and computers. Playing New Mexico the following week will further weaken their computer numbers, regardless of how much they win by. And that game cannot help them in the polls, it can only hurt them. Remember, Oregon beat them 72-0, so TCU would have to top that!
Computer by computer, Boise State has a good chance to catch up in the computers as TCU's score drops, assuming that Boise State's scores will improve, which they should with 3 more wins. In the Anderson & Hester computer ranking, 11-0 TCU is 4th and 9-0 Boise State 5th. With two extra wins in hand, TCU is only one spot ahead of Boise State. Boise State will take the lead in this ranking.
In the Richard Billingsley ranking, TCU is currently 1st ahead of Oregon and Auburn, with Boise State in 4th. Boise State may not gain any ground, but TCU will certainly lose ground, dropping to 3 if Oregon and Auburn keep winning. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Colley Matrix ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 6th. Oregon is 4th and is sure to pass TCU, where Oklahoma State is 5th and will either win out and pass TCU or lose and Boise State moves up. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Kenneth Massey ranking, TCU is 5th, Boise State is 7th. Boise State has a good chance to pass TCU in this one. As with the previous rankings, if TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Jeff Sagarin ranking (which is dropped by both schools since it is their worst ranking), TCU is 6th, Boise State is 12th. Boise State may not even come close to catching TCU in this one, but if this is Boise State's worst score, it won't matter.
In the Peter Wolfe ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 8th. Boise State probably won't catch TCU here either: maintaining a gap of 5 in this ranking is TCU's best chance at staying ahead of Boise State in the overall BCS standings. However, OK State and Nebraska are nestled between the two, and one of them MUST lose before the season is over, so the gap cannot stay at 5.
Given that TCU's lead over Boise State in the computer polls will shrink this week, then the next week, and the following week as well, and that they are likely to lose ground in the human polls with each Boise State win, I do not see any chance that TCU stays ahead of Boise State, should both finish 12-0. I am sticking with my answer. I think after this next weekend, even more of the "experts" will agree with me. Last week, they all said "impossible." I love being right! What a bunch of homers the experts turned out to be. Again. The same experts that all picked an Alabama-Ohio State National Championship game...it's quite likely that neither of them will even make a BCS game.
BYU had 8 meaningful trips into CSU territory. They fumbled twice and scored touchdowns on the other 6 for 42 points scored in 8 trips. BYU is doing much better at finishing drives. Which begs the question: is it BYU improving or is it the competition getting worse? The answer in that question possibly lies in Utah State and Colorado State. These are two similar teams, and BYU played both on the road. BYU got clobbered by one, BYU demolished the other. I realize this isn't the greatest of comparisons: rivalry game, attendance, CSU was already eliminated from bowl consideration, etc. It's the best we have, and BYU has improved dramatically. And trust me: there are a lot of CSU fans that hate BYU as much as Utah State fans do!
Sackcloth and Ashworth
I have been very hard on Luke Ashworth this season, with good reason I would like to say. However, the man deserves some props for stepping up the past 3 games for BYU. He has 14 catches, 253 yards, and 6 TDs in that span. After an atrocious first half to the year, he is turning in a phenomenal second half of the season. Someone needed to step up amongst the receivers and he was it. Way to go, Luke Ashworth!
Pac 12 Looking Scarier By The Minute
Notre Dame would be a mid-level Pac 12 team. At best. Its defense probably wouldn't even qualify as mid-level. This past weekend, however, they completely dominated Utah's offense, fully stocked with playmakers at RB, WR, and PR/KR. Next year, Utah's top 2 RBs graduate. Their leading WR graduates. 2 OL graduate. Their feared return man graduates. And news today is that the heir apparent at RB, Sausan Shakerin, has suffered a career-ending injury. They are entering the Pac 12 with some serious depth issues at the skill positions on offense. In other bad news: their left tackle, John Cullen, got worked most of the afternoon against Notre Dame. He is supposed to be their best returning OL next season...
TCU-Boise State Continued
Well, I continue to stay on the "Boise State will pass TCU in the BCS standings by season's end if both keep winning" wagon. Last week, all of the experts said it couldn't be done. However, this week, some of them have decided to stop being so overdramatic and sensationalistic and realize the possibility certainly exists. TCU lost 6% in the computer polls, 1.3% in the Harris Poll, and 1.5% in the Coaches Poll. Being idle this week means they will probably lose even more ground this week in polls and computers. Playing New Mexico the following week will further weaken their computer numbers, regardless of how much they win by. And that game cannot help them in the polls, it can only hurt them. Remember, Oregon beat them 72-0, so TCU would have to top that!
Computer by computer, Boise State has a good chance to catch up in the computers as TCU's score drops, assuming that Boise State's scores will improve, which they should with 3 more wins. In the Anderson & Hester computer ranking, 11-0 TCU is 4th and 9-0 Boise State 5th. With two extra wins in hand, TCU is only one spot ahead of Boise State. Boise State will take the lead in this ranking.
In the Richard Billingsley ranking, TCU is currently 1st ahead of Oregon and Auburn, with Boise State in 4th. Boise State may not gain any ground, but TCU will certainly lose ground, dropping to 3 if Oregon and Auburn keep winning. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Colley Matrix ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 6th. Oregon is 4th and is sure to pass TCU, where Oklahoma State is 5th and will either win out and pass TCU or lose and Boise State moves up. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Kenneth Massey ranking, TCU is 5th, Boise State is 7th. Boise State has a good chance to pass TCU in this one. As with the previous rankings, if TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Jeff Sagarin ranking (which is dropped by both schools since it is their worst ranking), TCU is 6th, Boise State is 12th. Boise State may not even come close to catching TCU in this one, but if this is Boise State's worst score, it won't matter.
In the Peter Wolfe ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 8th. Boise State probably won't catch TCU here either: maintaining a gap of 5 in this ranking is TCU's best chance at staying ahead of Boise State in the overall BCS standings. However, OK State and Nebraska are nestled between the two, and one of them MUST lose before the season is over, so the gap cannot stay at 5.
Given that TCU's lead over Boise State in the computer polls will shrink this week, then the next week, and the following week as well, and that they are likely to lose ground in the human polls with each Boise State win, I do not see any chance that TCU stays ahead of Boise State, should both finish 12-0. I am sticking with my answer. I think after this next weekend, even more of the "experts" will agree with me. Last week, they all said "impossible." I love being right! What a bunch of homers the experts turned out to be. Again. The same experts that all picked an Alabama-Ohio State National Championship game...it's quite likely that neither of them will even make a BCS game.
MWC Bowls, 2010, Week Twelve
A lot is being said about possible bowl scenarios in all of college football. Several of you loyal readers have asked me about the possible MWC scenarios. So here is my summary of the MWC bowls.
The Bowls
Las Vegas
Poinsettia
Independence
Armed Forces
New Mexico
The Army Issue
Let me just clear up one confusion on the issue of the Armed Forces Bowl: Army cannot be selected ahead of an eligible MWC team. Several news sources have reported this in recent days. However, according to the Armed Forces Bowl web site, they can only take Army as a backup if either the C-USA or MWC does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams. C-USA will definitely fill their slot. BYU needs only to beat either New Mexico or Utah, and the MWC will fill its Armed Forces Bowl slot.
The following scenarios are based upon TCU playing in a BCS game.
The Good Old Las Vegas Bowl
The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will, in all likelihood, take the winner of the Utah-SDSU game (or the highest ranked MWC team, which I believe will be the winner of that game). With a win, SDSU would be ranked in the top 25 going in to their final game with UNLV. With a win, Utah would solidify their top 25 ranking and would finish there regardless of their result in the BYU game. It is possible that Utah, even with a loss at SDSU, could finish in the top 25 with a win against BYU. The opponent will likely not be a Pac 10 team, as contracted, since the Pac 10 is going to struggle to fill its bowl slots and the Vegas Bowl is way down the list. It is most likely that it will be a MAC or Big East team. If conferences cannot fill their slots, all 7-5 teams must be selected before any 6-6 teams. Since the MAC and Big East are the most likely to have "extra" 7-5 teams, it is likely that the Vegas Bowl will be "stuck" with one of them to replace the Pac 10.
Poinsettia
The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl will probably take the loser of the Utah-SDSU game. If Utah or SDSU loses its next two games, that changes the scenario a bit, opening the door for an 8-4 Air Force team to get picked in this bowl. Utah would have lost 4 in a row to close the season at 8-4 or SDSU would have lost 3 in a row to finish the season 7-5 in those scenarios. Air Force might be a better option in either of those cases. Navy will be the opponent. How much would the bowl want an Air Force-Navy rematch? I don't know the answer to that question.
Independence
The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl has the next selection. It would be hard to imagine them passing up on an 8-4 Air Force team, especially in favor of a 6-6 or 7-5 BYU team that got crushed by Air Force earlier in the season. If Air Force moves up to a higher bowl, BYU would probably get the nod over SDSU (and a 7-5 BYU team would probably get the nod over an 8-4 Utah team). Otherwise, Air Force is the obvious choice here. The opponent will be the 7th selection from the ACC bowl-eligible teams. The current candidates are: Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Could they match Georgia Tech with Air Force, two triple option offenses? Boston College will probably have the best record of the 3 choices. North Carolina is also a possibility to fall this far if they drop their final two games.
Armed Forces
The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl gets the 4th selection and will probably get BYU, or SDSU/Utah if they fall past the Poinsettia Bowl. There is no choice for the Armed Forces Bowl, they get whatever MWC team is left, assuming BYU is bowl-eligible. The opponent will be a Conference USA team, I believe they get the 4th selection, but I could not verify that information. No matter what selection they get, the scenarios are too complicated with C-USA right now to even begin to extrapolate a guess. The game is played at SMU's stadium this season (due to renovations to TCU's stadium), so they could be an attractive option if they are bowl-eligible.
New Mexico
If the New Mexico Bowl wants an MWC team, they need the hometown New Mexico Lobos to upset the TCU Horned Frogs in two weeks. Otherwise, they are probably going to have to figure out TWO new teams to play. The tie-ins are MWC and WAC, neither of which look likely to fill out their bowl slots. The MAC vs. Army?
The Bowls
Las Vegas
Poinsettia
Independence
Armed Forces
New Mexico
The Army Issue
Let me just clear up one confusion on the issue of the Armed Forces Bowl: Army cannot be selected ahead of an eligible MWC team. Several news sources have reported this in recent days. However, according to the Armed Forces Bowl web site, they can only take Army as a backup if either the C-USA or MWC does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams. C-USA will definitely fill their slot. BYU needs only to beat either New Mexico or Utah, and the MWC will fill its Armed Forces Bowl slot.
The following scenarios are based upon TCU playing in a BCS game.
The Good Old Las Vegas Bowl
The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will, in all likelihood, take the winner of the Utah-SDSU game (or the highest ranked MWC team, which I believe will be the winner of that game). With a win, SDSU would be ranked in the top 25 going in to their final game with UNLV. With a win, Utah would solidify their top 25 ranking and would finish there regardless of their result in the BYU game. It is possible that Utah, even with a loss at SDSU, could finish in the top 25 with a win against BYU. The opponent will likely not be a Pac 10 team, as contracted, since the Pac 10 is going to struggle to fill its bowl slots and the Vegas Bowl is way down the list. It is most likely that it will be a MAC or Big East team. If conferences cannot fill their slots, all 7-5 teams must be selected before any 6-6 teams. Since the MAC and Big East are the most likely to have "extra" 7-5 teams, it is likely that the Vegas Bowl will be "stuck" with one of them to replace the Pac 10.
Poinsettia
The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl will probably take the loser of the Utah-SDSU game. If Utah or SDSU loses its next two games, that changes the scenario a bit, opening the door for an 8-4 Air Force team to get picked in this bowl. Utah would have lost 4 in a row to close the season at 8-4 or SDSU would have lost 3 in a row to finish the season 7-5 in those scenarios. Air Force might be a better option in either of those cases. Navy will be the opponent. How much would the bowl want an Air Force-Navy rematch? I don't know the answer to that question.
Independence
The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl has the next selection. It would be hard to imagine them passing up on an 8-4 Air Force team, especially in favor of a 6-6 or 7-5 BYU team that got crushed by Air Force earlier in the season. If Air Force moves up to a higher bowl, BYU would probably get the nod over SDSU (and a 7-5 BYU team would probably get the nod over an 8-4 Utah team). Otherwise, Air Force is the obvious choice here. The opponent will be the 7th selection from the ACC bowl-eligible teams. The current candidates are: Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Could they match Georgia Tech with Air Force, two triple option offenses? Boston College will probably have the best record of the 3 choices. North Carolina is also a possibility to fall this far if they drop their final two games.
Armed Forces
The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl gets the 4th selection and will probably get BYU, or SDSU/Utah if they fall past the Poinsettia Bowl. There is no choice for the Armed Forces Bowl, they get whatever MWC team is left, assuming BYU is bowl-eligible. The opponent will be a Conference USA team, I believe they get the 4th selection, but I could not verify that information. No matter what selection they get, the scenarios are too complicated with C-USA right now to even begin to extrapolate a guess. The game is played at SMU's stadium this season (due to renovations to TCU's stadium), so they could be an attractive option if they are bowl-eligible.
New Mexico
If the New Mexico Bowl wants an MWC team, they need the hometown New Mexico Lobos to upset the TCU Horned Frogs in two weeks. Otherwise, they are probably going to have to figure out TWO new teams to play. The tie-ins are MWC and WAC, neither of which look likely to fill out their bowl slots. The MAC vs. Army?
BYU-CSU 2010 Recap
There is a lot that could be said about this game. Since most of you have already read what you wanted to read about it, I'll be brief.
Offense Rocks
The offense moved the ball in large chunks. 2 rushing and 2 passing plays over 30 yards. Even the defense had a play that went for over 30 yards with Kyle Van Noy's 44-yard fumble return for a touchdown! That was another good sign for a unit that has struggled, to say the least. They were very efficient, converting 92% of third downs (and the one they missed they converted on 4th down), and completing 75% of their passes. They averaged 6.5 yards/carry on the ground. They did everything well offensively, other than the two fumbles. The offense has played well in 5 of the last 6 games, and they have finally found some consistency AND some big plays.
Defense Plays Big Again
The defense did about what I said they would: they gave up yards but not points. They forced 4 turnovers. They held the running game in check. They forced a freshman QB to beat them. Pete Thomas had a good statistical day, but had costly turnovers. The rest of the offense didn't help with a few costly penalties. They are a young team. They will be better next year, which doesn't matter to Cougar fans, since they aren't on the schedule.
What It Means
Well, it means something, though I still wouldn't read too much into it. Though CSU is not a good team, they probably aren't even a mediocre team, it was a win on the road. Having lost to Nevada at home, BYU needed to make up for that home loss with at least one road win to get to a bowl game. The other factor was the continued big losses on the road. They needed the confidence from this win to have any chance to beat Utah in two weeks on the road. So, BYU moves onward, with a shot at abysmal New Mexico to clinch a bowl game.
Offense Rocks
The offense moved the ball in large chunks. 2 rushing and 2 passing plays over 30 yards. Even the defense had a play that went for over 30 yards with Kyle Van Noy's 44-yard fumble return for a touchdown! That was another good sign for a unit that has struggled, to say the least. They were very efficient, converting 92% of third downs (and the one they missed they converted on 4th down), and completing 75% of their passes. They averaged 6.5 yards/carry on the ground. They did everything well offensively, other than the two fumbles. The offense has played well in 5 of the last 6 games, and they have finally found some consistency AND some big plays.
Defense Plays Big Again
The defense did about what I said they would: they gave up yards but not points. They forced 4 turnovers. They held the running game in check. They forced a freshman QB to beat them. Pete Thomas had a good statistical day, but had costly turnovers. The rest of the offense didn't help with a few costly penalties. They are a young team. They will be better next year, which doesn't matter to Cougar fans, since they aren't on the schedule.
What It Means
Well, it means something, though I still wouldn't read too much into it. Though CSU is not a good team, they probably aren't even a mediocre team, it was a win on the road. Having lost to Nevada at home, BYU needed to make up for that home loss with at least one road win to get to a bowl game. The other factor was the continued big losses on the road. They needed the confidence from this win to have any chance to beat Utah in two weeks on the road. So, BYU moves onward, with a shot at abysmal New Mexico to clinch a bowl game.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Eleven
I said: Utah 31, Notre Dame 27
Actual: Utah 3, Notre Dame 28
Note: I was one point off of Notre Dame's score, and was, technically, only one point off of Utah's as well. Just take that one away and I nailed it! Before the game, I talked about how a bad start would doom Utah's confidence (which proved to be very true) and about their lack of leadership on the offensive side of the ball (which also proved to be very true). When the chips were down in the third quarter, down 25 points, they ran the ball with Matt Asiata 7 consecutive plays. Then they went to Wynn to close the drive out and he went 1-3, including incompletions on 3rd/4th and goal. A powerback is usually not the type of player a coach would like to lead his team, especially down 25 points on the road: the drive took up over 6 minutes and eventually stalled inside the 10, yielding no points, because the powerback was so winded from running the ball so much that he couldn't finish the drive.
I said: TCU 38, SDSU 14
Actual: TCU 40, SDSU 35
Note: It was 37-14 at one point in the second half, before SDSU made a furious run at TCU. A typical TCU performance would have probably kept that as a final score, but SDSU, as I told my wife, did not play scared of TCU like BYU and Utah did: they were true to their identity and it worked. The Utes and Cougars played not to get blown out, and got blown out anyway. SDSU went right at them and scored 35 points. Good for them. I'm interested to see what the point spread will be for Utah at SDSU this weekend.
I said: Air Force 38, New Mexico 17
Actual: Air Force 48, New Mexico 23
Note: Air Force won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy last week. They are now in line for an 8-win season and no worse than 4th in the MWC. On the bright side for Lobo Fans, New Mexico is actually scoring points these days. They have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. The defense is still ridiculously bad though...
I said: UNLV 24, Wyoming 21
Actual: UNLV 42, Wyoming 16
Note: Maybe BYU holding UNLV to 7 points was better than I thought. Or the 5-point win over Wyoming is worse than I thought...
With the Utah whiff this week, I'm now at 48-7 on the season.
Actual: Utah 3, Notre Dame 28
Note: I was one point off of Notre Dame's score, and was, technically, only one point off of Utah's as well. Just take that one away and I nailed it! Before the game, I talked about how a bad start would doom Utah's confidence (which proved to be very true) and about their lack of leadership on the offensive side of the ball (which also proved to be very true). When the chips were down in the third quarter, down 25 points, they ran the ball with Matt Asiata 7 consecutive plays. Then they went to Wynn to close the drive out and he went 1-3, including incompletions on 3rd/4th and goal. A powerback is usually not the type of player a coach would like to lead his team, especially down 25 points on the road: the drive took up over 6 minutes and eventually stalled inside the 10, yielding no points, because the powerback was so winded from running the ball so much that he couldn't finish the drive.
I said: TCU 38, SDSU 14
Actual: TCU 40, SDSU 35
Note: It was 37-14 at one point in the second half, before SDSU made a furious run at TCU. A typical TCU performance would have probably kept that as a final score, but SDSU, as I told my wife, did not play scared of TCU like BYU and Utah did: they were true to their identity and it worked. The Utes and Cougars played not to get blown out, and got blown out anyway. SDSU went right at them and scored 35 points. Good for them. I'm interested to see what the point spread will be for Utah at SDSU this weekend.
I said: Air Force 38, New Mexico 17
Actual: Air Force 48, New Mexico 23
Note: Air Force won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy last week. They are now in line for an 8-win season and no worse than 4th in the MWC. On the bright side for Lobo Fans, New Mexico is actually scoring points these days. They have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. The defense is still ridiculously bad though...
I said: UNLV 24, Wyoming 21
Actual: UNLV 42, Wyoming 16
Note: Maybe BYU holding UNLV to 7 points was better than I thought. Or the 5-point win over Wyoming is worse than I thought...
With the Utah whiff this week, I'm now at 48-7 on the season.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Fresno State-BYU Prediction, 11/12/2010
Fresno State brings a young, but talented, group to the Marriott Center for what BYU has marketed to get a sellout. It will be like nothing any of them have ever experienced. Steve Cleveland will have an emotional return to the Marriott Center, where he laid the foundation for BYU's current success before developing his "twitch" and moving to a less stressful position at Fresno State.
He has a legitimate future NBA Center in Greg Smith. He has a couple of other highly touted freshman as well, including Alpine's very own Bracken Funk. However, this is a Fresno team that was not even .500 last season, even with future NBA Draft pick Paul George on it.
BYU will have some definite kinks to work out, particularly early in the game. But look for the crowd, and Jimmer, to pull away down the stretch. BYU 73, Fresno State 57.
I also predict that Duke will not make the Final Four this season. I am in shock at all of the experts pulling the "homer" approach. Looking back at preseason predictions for football, EVERYBODY had Alabama vs. Ohio State in the championship game. It's possible neither will even make a BCS game. I see the same with Duke: EVERYBODY has them playing for a title this season and I say they will not even make the Final Four. We'll see what "Mo Knows" in March.
He has a legitimate future NBA Center in Greg Smith. He has a couple of other highly touted freshman as well, including Alpine's very own Bracken Funk. However, this is a Fresno team that was not even .500 last season, even with future NBA Draft pick Paul George on it.
BYU will have some definite kinks to work out, particularly early in the game. But look for the crowd, and Jimmer, to pull away down the stretch. BYU 73, Fresno State 57.
I also predict that Duke will not make the Final Four this season. I am in shock at all of the experts pulling the "homer" approach. Looking back at preseason predictions for football, EVERYBODY had Alabama vs. Ohio State in the championship game. It's possible neither will even make a BCS game. I see the same with Duke: EVERYBODY has them playing for a title this season and I say they will not even make the Final Four. We'll see what "Mo Knows" in March.
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