MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Ten

Air Force at Army
Air Force has dominated this academy rivalry of late.  However, Army was bad of late.  This year they are much-improved.  Air Force has fell in three straight tough games, but were competitive with Utah last week.  They have not been a very good road team, though.  I still believe they have the horses to claim the Commander-In-Chief Trophy this Saturday.  The Falcons get the Trophy with a win at West Point: Air Force 27, Army 20

Wyoming at New Mexico
The Cowboy offense has come alive in the past 5 quarters.  Their defense is still bad.  Luckily for them, however, they are playing the worst team in America.  Wyoming wins on the road against abysmal New Mexico, in a surprisingly close affair.  Wyoming 31, New Mexico 23

Colorado State at San Diego State
I think this will be somewhat closer than most people anticipate.  CSU has been playing solid defense.  At this point in the year, the younger Aztec players are starting to lose a step.  However, they are at home, against an even younger CSU Ram team.  San Diego State 31, CSU 17

TCU at Utah
This is obviously the show of the weekend.  This game has drawn even more attention than two 1-loss, top ten, recent BCS National Champion SEC teams this week.  A lot of stats have been thrown out there this week regarding this matchup.  A few of them are: TCU has never won at Utah, Utah has won 21 straight home games, Utah offense has been scoring 45 points/game, TCU defense has been giving up less than 9 points/game, TCU puts points on the board to the tune of 41/game, Utah is giving up only 14 points/game, special teams have been very special for both teams with the best statistical punt returner in college football on Utah and the most dynamic returner in college football on TCU.

Here is my little reality (it is going to sound anti-Ute, but I'm just presenting the facts).

1) TCU has really dominated Utah the past two games.  They worked them up and down the field at Rice-Eccles two years ago (just not in the end zone), but they turned the ball over late and special teams let them down with two missed chip-shot field goals that would have iced the game in the 4th quarter.  They dominated the game and handed it over to Utah on a silver platter, all the Utes had to do was take it.  Credit the Utes fully for taking it (and I have done so on many occasions), but the fact remains: TCU lost that game after 3.5 quarters of domination.  Last year in Fort Worth, TCU demolished Utah 55-28, and the score was not even reflective of how dominant TCU was.  TCU has been the better team each of the past two years.  This year, I believe, is the same story: TCU has the better team.

2) The 6th-ranked scoring defense for Utah has been much better, statistically, than last year's D that gave up a half-a-hundred to TCU.  But they have been racking up those defensive stats against offenses nowhere near as good as TCU's 9th-ranked scoring offense.  In fact, 5 of Utah's 8 opponents rank in the bottom 19 teams in the country in scoring offense.  The other 3 are better, but all 3 are still outside of the top 50 scoring offenses, and those three scored 24, 23, and 27 against Utah.  In 5 games against horrendous offenses, Utah has given up just 7.5 points/game.  In 3 games against decent offenses, they are giving up nearly 25 points/game.  This is way more than a decent offense: they are scoring over 40 points/game against a couple of pretty good teams.  Although I will be the first to tell you that TCU's offense has LOOKED much more pedestrian than last year's high-flying circus show, they are still finding a way to score a lot of points.  On the flip side, TCU's offense has been playing against defenses not as good as Utah's.

3) The Utah offense sits at 3rd in the country in scoring.  Similar to their amazing defensive numbers, these huge stats were accumulated against 4 teams in the bottom 19 in scoring defense.  They have only played two teams in the top 87 in scoring defenses, Pittsburgh and Air Force, who both sit in the top 50.  They held Utah to 27 (in OT) and 28 points, respectively.  The other 6 defenses they have played are all giving up at least 29 points a game, 5 of which are giving up 32 points/game or more.  They are playing the number 1 scoring defense in the country in TCU, giving up less than 9 points/game!  Granted though, they are giving up 10 points/game on the road.  They held Baylor to 24 points below their season average.  They held Oregon State to 9 points below than their average.  They held Air Force to 22 points below their season average.  They haven't given up 10 points in a single game in over a month.  They have given up 13 points in their last 5 games combined.  On the flip side, they haven't faced an offense as good as Utah's, with perhaps one exception: Baylor.

Utah is playing its first great opponent on the year.  Those guys that were inexperienced at the beginning of the year have gained experience.  But none of their experience will prepare them for TCU's speed, dynamic offense, or 4-2-5 defense.

I think Utah is able to avoid a blowout, but I do not like their chances at all, if you couldn't tell.  The crowd can be as hostile as they want.  The Utes can play smash-mouth football.  They can run trick plays.  They can try whatever they want.  They are going up against a team on a mission that has the skill and experience to get the job done right this time in SLC.  Like last year, I believe the score will be closer than the actual game: TCU 31, Utah 20