Over the past 10 years, (I wouldn't call myself a "Bronco apologist" but) I have come to Bronco's defense when I felt people have been overly harsh. While I still think some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to BYU football and Bronco Mendenhall, I am finding that I have two big beefs with Bronco.
1) According to Bronco, BYU has never been beat. The team just didn't execute at a high enough level. The coaching staff always had the right plays called. They always had the players properly trained and prepared. It was just the personnel that couldn't get the job done. That's crap. Some teams have better players, who work just as hard or harder, are coached as well or better: that is a fact of college football. But BYU has coaches are prone to make mistakes too. Bronco doesn't ever say that: the players always need to execute at a higher level. I'm sorry, coach, but you need to coach at a higher level too. You hold players accountable (or so you say, I don't recall Bronco ever benching anyone for poor "execution" he just talks about the bad execution after the game). Now it's time to hold Anae and Howell accountable. Howell needed to get more creative in his blitz packages in games against Houston and Virginia: so say that. Don't blame the players for not getting to the QB (or not covering on the back end). Anae should focus more on execution than on speed right now, especially if his current roster of players are having trouble performing at a high level. He needs to adapt to his personnel: he doesn't have a team captain, veteran leader at QB (or RB, or OL, etc.). So slow things down a bit, hurry up when necessary. Adapt. COACH!
2) Show some passion. The only time Bronco ever gets excited is when he's talking to national media guys about BYU's program. When he's lobbying for BYU to get into the P5, or the BCS, the Heisman, or the College Football Playoff he looks giddy. He talks about special seasons and cracks a smile. Then he gets on the sidelines and goes all LaVell Edwards stoic. It's a different game these days than when LaVell roamed the sidelines, these kids, especially at BYU, don't want football to be a business trip. Make it fun for them. Interact with them. Get excited with them and for them. Yes, a calm demeanor is generally a good thing, but sometimes your team needs a kick in the butt and you need to do it: Taysom isn't there. Craig Bills is out. Until some player steps up to be the vocal leader, Bronco needs to find some way to light a fire under these guys.
I think mentally BYU is in a very dangerous place right now. I thought heading into the season, and especially after the Ole Miss loss, that this isn't a typical Boise State team. Ole Miss turned out to be a juggernaut though. Boise has rebounded nicely and played well (excluding the inexplicable loss at Air Force), especially at home. They have a very balanced offensive attack and have played pretty solid defense. They have been tough at home, beating a better-than-expected Colorado State team and defeating rival Fresno State by double digits last week. This is a much more difficult test than I envisioned a month ago, and not just b/c BYU is struggling, but Boise is peaking.
With all that said, Boise State is beatable. Hedrick is prone to turn it over, registering 8 INTs in the Broncos' two losses. The offense also relies on him to do a lot of things with his legs. Add in Ajayi at RB and catching a lot of screens, and so much of their offense relies on those two players. If one of those guys goes down, that could spell trouble. Imagine if Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams both got hurt...oh wait. The most consistent thing about Boise has been the rushing attack, but it's very Jay Ajayi-focused. No other player has carried the ball more than 2 times in any game. Matt Miller is their medium to deep-ball threat, not necessarily because of his speed, but b/c he's like an athletic Mitch Matthews with great hands that runs good routes. I haven't heard for sure if he will play or not: he has missed the last two games but they thought he'd be ready to go by last week. Shane Williams-Rhodes is their other WR: he's very flashy and can do great things in space if he can find it.
BYU's D is stout against the run this year. It will be interesting to see strength-on-strength. Last year Ajayi had an "average" day against BYU with 150+ yards on 20+ carries. Most importantly, BYU kept him out of the end zone. I don't know that they can survive another 150 yards from him. He's also a great pass catcher and Boise likes those screens. BYU knows they need to get pressure and have had to blitz to get that done, so screens could hurt BYU, which doesn't play much man coverage, even when it blitzes. I figure Hedrick is going to throw for at least 200. If BYU's secondary plays as bad as it has at times this year, he could easily double that number to 400. So if you add 150 rushing yards to 200 passing yards, Boise should be in the game. Factor in the home crowd, now getting excited about the team again, and that should give Boise's O a little extra mojo too. The last time BYU went up to Boise, they held the offense without a TD. I think Boise's O is better this year and the BYU's D is worse. I figure that's worth at least 24-31 points for Boise State.
For BYU's O, Jamaal Williams is expected to play, though it's not 100% sure he will, this would be a great, and much needed, addition. With Mitch Matthews emerging in the passing game, Jordan Leslie still in the wings, and a Christian Stewart/Devin Mahina connection forming, BYU has some things working in the passing game. Colorado State and Nevada both had a lot of success through the air against Boise's secondary. Other teams have had great success running the ball against them too. So this isn't a shutdown defense by any stretch of the imagination. I normally want to see BYU be a little run-heavy, but I think a balanced approach would serve them well against Boise State. I don't think 50+ attempts for Christian Stewart is the answer, but, if that's what Anae dials up, I think it reduces BYU's chances of putting a lot of points on the board. BYU isn't capable of big-play TDs, so they'll need to sustain drives and be able to punch it in once they get to the red zone. That is easier with a balanced offensive attack, throwing the ball to move the sticks and running the ball to move the scoreboard. In goal to go situations, Christian Stewart throwing 3 straight fades to Mitch Matthews will end in one of two ways: FG attempt or touchback. BYU needs balance!
I think it's done though, I just don't think these guys have enough left in the tank to battle Boise for 4 long quarters. BYU will fight hard for as long as they can, but I think they fall short again, as has been the case with 2 straight 2 TD leads blown in the second half: Boise State 31, BYU 20.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Nevada at BYU: Mo's Reaction
I know I'm a little late on this. People have dissected the game, people have been disgusted with the outcome of the game, etc. For me, I'm a little concerned about the direction of the offense (or really the program in general) right now. Robert Anae's "Go Fast, Go Hard" offensive scheme has basically turned into a Hurry-Up Air Raid offense. The whole point of Go Fast, Go Hard is to wear teams out. These are 19-23 year olds BYU is playing: they can run for days. You can't wear them out by making the DL pass rush and the DBs chase (slow) WRs. To wear them out you hit them every single play. This is why Navy can still pull off a few upsets every now and again: 11 guys hit 11 guys on every play. Go Fast, Go Hard works when you run the ball a lot and when you pass the ball effectively. It doesn't work as well if you pass the ball a lot and run the ball effectively. You can't run 30 more plays and gain 190 more yards and lose time of possession by 6 minutes. Two of the 3 4th quarter turnovers against Nevada were on called pass plays. When you have a running game that can be dominant against an inferior opponent, you have to use it early, often, and to the end.
I understand that BYU is really short on RBs right now. It destroys some confidence from Anae in the running game. I get that. However, the RBs averaged 7 yards/carry against Nevada last weekend. Nate Carter averaged over 12/carry. Nate Carter. Even Toloa'i Ho Ching got his first action of the season in a blocking role this past Saturday. But what I see is the OL is actually coming together in the run-blocking these past few games, just as the number of carries is plummeting.
Robert Anae called 102 offensive plays. He called 77 pass plays and 25 run plays. Christian Stewart was sacked 6 times and scrambled 8 times, bringing a little balance to the final numbers (63 pass attempts and 39 rushes). That means he is not comfortable in the pocket on 18% of pass plays. On the 63 plays he did throw the ball, he completed 62% of his passes, averaging 10.5 yards/completion. There was one designed running play the entire game that got 0 yards or less (and that was really a broken play). So there is a 96% chance of positive yardage against Nevada if we run the ball. Contrast that with passing the ball: you have a 39% of 0 yards or fewer (and an 18% chance of your QB running for his life). At some point, Anae has to look at the percentages, and they say to RUN THE BALL 3/4 OF THE TIME INSTEAD OF 1/4. Even if he wasn't looking at the percentages: BYU was ahead by 15 points in the second half! Run the ball! Go Medium, Go Hard...eat clock, wear them down, kill their morale.
77 called passes would have been awesome if Steve Sarkisian was throwing to Kaipo Maguire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye, KO Kealaluhi, Chad Lewis, Itula Mili, and Ronney Jenkins. 77 with Christian Stewart to Mitch Matthews, Jordan Leslie, and Paul Lasike? That kind of stupidity earns you a loss to a 3-3 middle-of-the-road MWC team. Just a few weeks after Bronco proclaimed that a 4-0 start and beat-down of Texas proved BYU was ready for a P5 league, BYU lost 3 straight games to G5 schools: 2 of them at home. And they aren't out of the woods yet either. If BYU loses to Boise and beats UNLV, they will be 1-3 against the MWC: that would place them at the bottom of either division if they were still in the conference.
Analyze away all you want. The reason BYU lost to Nevada was the number 7. Only 7 carries for a guy averaging 12 yards/carry. And 77 called pass plays when the run-blocking was as dominant as it has been this season since the Texas 2nd half. I said before the season started, I felt BYU needed 10 wins or they lose the fan base. That would require them to win out, including a bowl game. That won't happen until BYU starts running the football for 4 quarters. If it was good enough to beat Texas, it would have been good enough to beat Utah State, UCF, and Nevada. But we are left with 77 called pass plays, two 4th quarter rushes against UCF in a game we led by 2 TDs, and a complete abandoning of the running game against Utah State in the 3rd quarter.
Run. The. Football. For 4 quarters. Run it with Nate Carter. Bring Alisa back to offense (if Utah State can bring a LB with zero career carries over and put on a display, surely a former college RB can give you something). Put Trey Dye in the backfield (Stewart can tell him which way the play is going if he doesn't know the playbook). Just pound the football. Or lose. Plain and simple. And I'm not just talking about the game.
I understand that BYU is really short on RBs right now. It destroys some confidence from Anae in the running game. I get that. However, the RBs averaged 7 yards/carry against Nevada last weekend. Nate Carter averaged over 12/carry. Nate Carter. Even Toloa'i Ho Ching got his first action of the season in a blocking role this past Saturday. But what I see is the OL is actually coming together in the run-blocking these past few games, just as the number of carries is plummeting.
Robert Anae called 102 offensive plays. He called 77 pass plays and 25 run plays. Christian Stewart was sacked 6 times and scrambled 8 times, bringing a little balance to the final numbers (63 pass attempts and 39 rushes). That means he is not comfortable in the pocket on 18% of pass plays. On the 63 plays he did throw the ball, he completed 62% of his passes, averaging 10.5 yards/completion. There was one designed running play the entire game that got 0 yards or less (and that was really a broken play). So there is a 96% chance of positive yardage against Nevada if we run the ball. Contrast that with passing the ball: you have a 39% of 0 yards or fewer (and an 18% chance of your QB running for his life). At some point, Anae has to look at the percentages, and they say to RUN THE BALL 3/4 OF THE TIME INSTEAD OF 1/4. Even if he wasn't looking at the percentages: BYU was ahead by 15 points in the second half! Run the ball! Go Medium, Go Hard...eat clock, wear them down, kill their morale.
77 called passes would have been awesome if Steve Sarkisian was throwing to Kaipo Maguire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye, KO Kealaluhi, Chad Lewis, Itula Mili, and Ronney Jenkins. 77 with Christian Stewart to Mitch Matthews, Jordan Leslie, and Paul Lasike? That kind of stupidity earns you a loss to a 3-3 middle-of-the-road MWC team. Just a few weeks after Bronco proclaimed that a 4-0 start and beat-down of Texas proved BYU was ready for a P5 league, BYU lost 3 straight games to G5 schools: 2 of them at home. And they aren't out of the woods yet either. If BYU loses to Boise and beats UNLV, they will be 1-3 against the MWC: that would place them at the bottom of either division if they were still in the conference.
Analyze away all you want. The reason BYU lost to Nevada was the number 7. Only 7 carries for a guy averaging 12 yards/carry. And 77 called pass plays when the run-blocking was as dominant as it has been this season since the Texas 2nd half. I said before the season started, I felt BYU needed 10 wins or they lose the fan base. That would require them to win out, including a bowl game. That won't happen until BYU starts running the football for 4 quarters. If it was good enough to beat Texas, it would have been good enough to beat Utah State, UCF, and Nevada. But we are left with 77 called pass plays, two 4th quarter rushes against UCF in a game we led by 2 TDs, and a complete abandoning of the running game against Utah State in the 3rd quarter.
Run. The. Football. For 4 quarters. Run it with Nate Carter. Bring Alisa back to offense (if Utah State can bring a LB with zero career carries over and put on a display, surely a former college RB can give you something). Put Trey Dye in the backfield (Stewart can tell him which way the play is going if he doesn't know the playbook). Just pound the football. Or lose. Plain and simple. And I'm not just talking about the game.
Friday, October 17, 2014
Nevada at BYU: Mo's Prediction
BYU has been having all kinds of trouble in pass defense the past 4 games, having given up four consecutive 300-yard passing games for the first time in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In their defense, Houston didn't even try to run the ball. In their disgrace, Utah State got to over 300 yards in only 25 attempts. The next two games they face seasoned, senior QBs.
Cody Fajardo comes in averaging 234 yards/game this season, completing 62% of his passes. Tomorrow will be making his 37th career start, and 15th career road start, against BYU. Last season against BYU, he had a bit of a ho-hum game: 22-31 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Does anybody believe this year's BYU Pass D is better than last year's? They really haven't been getting to the QB, they haven't been covering well down the field, and they always give up short throws on the outside. Fajardo is also mobile so if Takitaki abandons his contain assignment to rush up the middle, Fajardo will get to the edge and make the Cougar defense pay.
Three weeks ago, it looked like BYU and Utah were both back to what they had done best for the past decade under their respective coaches. BYU was scoring a lot of points, playing solid defense, and not killing themselves on special teams. Utah was playing opportunistic defense, not beating themselves with turnovers on offense, and utilizing special teams and trick plays to put points on the board. BYU was beating teams it was supposed to beat, Utah was combining stunning victories with baffling defeats. One of the teams is still being true to themselves, the other is BYU.
BYU's defense hasn't been able to make plays on first or third downs. Even when they play well on first and second down, they don't seem to have the ability to get a stop on third and long. Teams have moved the ball up and down the field, in chunks or in drives, whatever the offense needs to do, it could. What was supposed to be the most talented and deepest BYU defense ever stopped playing well in the 2nd quarter against Houston, then had a couple of guys get hurt, and now can't really stop anything or anyone. They don't look talented and they don't look deep. They look physical, they look big, strong, and fast, but they don't look competent.
Nevada, like Utah State, is not a good team. They thrive on playing a unique brand of offense that always keeps opponents guessing, especially those that aren't fundamentally sound (a hallmark of BYU defenses under Bronco Mendenhall until this year). It isn't flashy, it isn't done on the backs of a massive OL, or made possible by a lot of play makers. But they have been getting the job done on offense, at least keeping the team in the game.
Defensively, they haven't been. But the Cougars O has left a lot to be desired, even when Taysom was healthy. BYU has had some time to rest, recover, and regroup after two consecutive weeknight games. They need to get back to establishing the run game. Anae desires his go-fast-go-hard offense to be a physical rushing attack designed to wear opponents out. But outside the first 2.5 games, it has been obnoxiously balanced, or even pass-heavy. If they want to overpower a smaller defensive front, the Cougars need to come out running the football straight at the defense. This was the game plan against Texas. Against a BIGGER defensive front. It worked beautifully. But it really hasn't been in the game plans since then.
Jamaal Williams has been averaging over 5 yards/carry on the season. Those stats aren't skewed with a couple of big long TD runs. He averages 5.2 yards/carry: give him the ball twice and it's a first down. Yet he had 13 carries against Virginia and 16 against Utah State. I realize he's not 100% now, but he was in the Utah State loss. Another baffling stat to me is that Adam Hine, who by all appearances is one of the fastest guys on the team and is trusted to return kickoffs, yet he is on pace to have the same amount of carries as he did last year. I didn't even know he had ANY carries last season! I realize he's not 100% either (and may not play against Nevada), but he was the rest of the season. Algie Brown: averaging 5 yards/carry. He only has 29 carries on the season (thanks to 22 carries in the two games without Jamaal Williams). 3 great backs and a solid rushing attack, and yet BYU couldn't find a way to run the ball in the 4th quarter or in OT against UCF. They didn't even attempt it. [Probably b/c it wasn't a consistent attack so the D was still somewhat fresh in the 4th Q.]
I realize Anae wants to show confidence in Stewart and he wanted to let the country know that Taysom Hill could throw/win a Heisman, but run the dang ball. Run it often. Have an identity. Be a physical, bruising, running football team. That will give Stewart bigger and better throwing lanes and THAT will give him confidence. To me, just from a personnel standpoint, that was the obvious thing to do. It is only magnified by the struggles the defense has been having. BYU lost the time of possession battle 2-1 against Virginia and BYU came out throwing again the next game...I understand it's not always the easiest thing to make an adjustment mid-game. But there was a bye week and a loss to get your head out of your butt and see what the team needed to happen. Anae should know better and Bronco should ABSOLUTELY know better as a defensive-minded coach!
Against UCF, BYU ran zone read with a non-running QB, then threw two incompletions and punted. Multiple times. Right out of the gate! They need to establish the run. Or else Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores.
My prediction for this game: Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores. Christian Stewart will throw the ball 50 times, to just 25 rushes. BYU will lose in excruciating fashion. At homecoming, at night, in front of at least 53,000, but not exceeding, 58,000 fans. Nevada 41, BYU 13.
On a brighter note, BYU has a remarkably decent record in games I pick them to lose. However, I think this team is mentally worse than a typical BYU team, which I normally think of as not being very mentally tough. This team has the mental fortitude of a spoiled 12-year old girl. The defense doesn't have that same confidence and consistent ability to come up big when it's needed. Actually, remove consistent: they don't have the ability to EVER come up big. The offense has a couple of guys that can go out and make a play, but Anae never seems to dial up the right plays at the right time for those guys. Mentally, the guys just don't have toughness. A team that can win in Austin as badly as they did, shouldn't need to eke out wins over Houston and Virginia, nor have losses to Utah State and UCF. I know Taysom got hurt, but what were the other 21 offensive players on the two-deep doing in the offseason? What were the coaches preparing for in the offseason? Maybe they should worry less about having a special season and worry more about each game and each week. No more lip service about one game at a time. The Cougs need to actually take it one game at a time next season. Facing 2 senior QBs the next two games, I could see the season turning really ugly for the Cougs, and in a hurry too.
Cody Fajardo comes in averaging 234 yards/game this season, completing 62% of his passes. Tomorrow will be making his 37th career start, and 15th career road start, against BYU. Last season against BYU, he had a bit of a ho-hum game: 22-31 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Does anybody believe this year's BYU Pass D is better than last year's? They really haven't been getting to the QB, they haven't been covering well down the field, and they always give up short throws on the outside. Fajardo is also mobile so if Takitaki abandons his contain assignment to rush up the middle, Fajardo will get to the edge and make the Cougar defense pay.
Three weeks ago, it looked like BYU and Utah were both back to what they had done best for the past decade under their respective coaches. BYU was scoring a lot of points, playing solid defense, and not killing themselves on special teams. Utah was playing opportunistic defense, not beating themselves with turnovers on offense, and utilizing special teams and trick plays to put points on the board. BYU was beating teams it was supposed to beat, Utah was combining stunning victories with baffling defeats. One of the teams is still being true to themselves, the other is BYU.
BYU's defense hasn't been able to make plays on first or third downs. Even when they play well on first and second down, they don't seem to have the ability to get a stop on third and long. Teams have moved the ball up and down the field, in chunks or in drives, whatever the offense needs to do, it could. What was supposed to be the most talented and deepest BYU defense ever stopped playing well in the 2nd quarter against Houston, then had a couple of guys get hurt, and now can't really stop anything or anyone. They don't look talented and they don't look deep. They look physical, they look big, strong, and fast, but they don't look competent.
Nevada, like Utah State, is not a good team. They thrive on playing a unique brand of offense that always keeps opponents guessing, especially those that aren't fundamentally sound (a hallmark of BYU defenses under Bronco Mendenhall until this year). It isn't flashy, it isn't done on the backs of a massive OL, or made possible by a lot of play makers. But they have been getting the job done on offense, at least keeping the team in the game.
Defensively, they haven't been. But the Cougars O has left a lot to be desired, even when Taysom was healthy. BYU has had some time to rest, recover, and regroup after two consecutive weeknight games. They need to get back to establishing the run game. Anae desires his go-fast-go-hard offense to be a physical rushing attack designed to wear opponents out. But outside the first 2.5 games, it has been obnoxiously balanced, or even pass-heavy. If they want to overpower a smaller defensive front, the Cougars need to come out running the football straight at the defense. This was the game plan against Texas. Against a BIGGER defensive front. It worked beautifully. But it really hasn't been in the game plans since then.
Jamaal Williams has been averaging over 5 yards/carry on the season. Those stats aren't skewed with a couple of big long TD runs. He averages 5.2 yards/carry: give him the ball twice and it's a first down. Yet he had 13 carries against Virginia and 16 against Utah State. I realize he's not 100% now, but he was in the Utah State loss. Another baffling stat to me is that Adam Hine, who by all appearances is one of the fastest guys on the team and is trusted to return kickoffs, yet he is on pace to have the same amount of carries as he did last year. I didn't even know he had ANY carries last season! I realize he's not 100% either (and may not play against Nevada), but he was the rest of the season. Algie Brown: averaging 5 yards/carry. He only has 29 carries on the season (thanks to 22 carries in the two games without Jamaal Williams). 3 great backs and a solid rushing attack, and yet BYU couldn't find a way to run the ball in the 4th quarter or in OT against UCF. They didn't even attempt it. [Probably b/c it wasn't a consistent attack so the D was still somewhat fresh in the 4th Q.]
I realize Anae wants to show confidence in Stewart and he wanted to let the country know that Taysom Hill could throw/win a Heisman, but run the dang ball. Run it often. Have an identity. Be a physical, bruising, running football team. That will give Stewart bigger and better throwing lanes and THAT will give him confidence. To me, just from a personnel standpoint, that was the obvious thing to do. It is only magnified by the struggles the defense has been having. BYU lost the time of possession battle 2-1 against Virginia and BYU came out throwing again the next game...I understand it's not always the easiest thing to make an adjustment mid-game. But there was a bye week and a loss to get your head out of your butt and see what the team needed to happen. Anae should know better and Bronco should ABSOLUTELY know better as a defensive-minded coach!
Against UCF, BYU ran zone read with a non-running QB, then threw two incompletions and punted. Multiple times. Right out of the gate! They need to establish the run. Or else Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores.
My prediction for this game: Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores. Christian Stewart will throw the ball 50 times, to just 25 rushes. BYU will lose in excruciating fashion. At homecoming, at night, in front of at least 53,000, but not exceeding, 58,000 fans. Nevada 41, BYU 13.
On a brighter note, BYU has a remarkably decent record in games I pick them to lose. However, I think this team is mentally worse than a typical BYU team, which I normally think of as not being very mentally tough. This team has the mental fortitude of a spoiled 12-year old girl. The defense doesn't have that same confidence and consistent ability to come up big when it's needed. Actually, remove consistent: they don't have the ability to EVER come up big. The offense has a couple of guys that can go out and make a play, but Anae never seems to dial up the right plays at the right time for those guys. Mentally, the guys just don't have toughness. A team that can win in Austin as badly as they did, shouldn't need to eke out wins over Houston and Virginia, nor have losses to Utah State and UCF. I know Taysom got hurt, but what were the other 21 offensive players on the two-deep doing in the offseason? What were the coaches preparing for in the offseason? Maybe they should worry less about having a special season and worry more about each game and each week. No more lip service about one game at a time. The Cougs need to actually take it one game at a time next season. Facing 2 senior QBs the next two games, I could see the season turning really ugly for the Cougs, and in a hurry too.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
BYU at UCF: Mo's Prediction
BYU needs a fast start. They cannot afford to get behind. They need to run the football, play like a bunch of wild men on defense (and hopefully force turnovers, penalties, and sacks), and play field position. It would be a big ask for Anae to make Christian Stewart win the game in his very first start. Not that it's not possible, but UCF needs to be the one forcing him to win, not Anae.
That's what it takes. BYU starts slow: they lose. They need to believe they can win. They need "wins" early in the game. They need confidence again. They should run the ball 9 of the first 10 plays (and the other one should be a play-action pass). I don't care if that yields 3 punts. BYU has to establish the running game, or at least that they are going to run the ball. Lean on that defense, force them to play physical for 4 quarters.
I expect BYU comes out emotional. That's fine: if they build a lead with that emotion. I think the boys have been through a lot and it'll be tough to play a 4 quarter game tonight. My model, even without Taysom, has BYU as 11-point favorites.
I am not so optimistic. A 27-10 score wouldn't surprise me, and I could see either team being on the positive side of that score, but I'll go with UCF getting the 27, BYU 10.
BYU could still turn around and respond and win 9/10 games, but this is a tough game after a tough weekend.
That's what it takes. BYU starts slow: they lose. They need to believe they can win. They need "wins" early in the game. They need confidence again. They should run the ball 9 of the first 10 plays (and the other one should be a play-action pass). I don't care if that yields 3 punts. BYU has to establish the running game, or at least that they are going to run the ball. Lean on that defense, force them to play physical for 4 quarters.
I expect BYU comes out emotional. That's fine: if they build a lead with that emotion. I think the boys have been through a lot and it'll be tough to play a 4 quarter game tonight. My model, even without Taysom, has BYU as 11-point favorites.
I am not so optimistic. A 27-10 score wouldn't surprise me, and I could see either team being on the positive side of that score, but I'll go with UCF getting the 27, BYU 10.
BYU could still turn around and respond and win 9/10 games, but this is a tough game after a tough weekend.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Mo's Three Tips for BYU Football: 10/7/2014
As a follower of BYU football, I am encouraged to hear the words coming out of the player's mouths this week. They are saying the right things. If they, as they say they are, truly a team that is rallying around Taysom's injury, getting behind Christian Stewart, and prepared to play defense with passion, then great. But they were also saying the right things ahead of the Utah State game. I have a few major concerns about the BYU football team for games 6-12.
1. Pound the Football
Jamaal Williams is a great running back. He's averaging nearly 20 carries and nearly 100 yards/game. He has amazing burst (but not necessarily great top-line speed), agility, and surprising power and ability to finish runs. Taysom had very similar numbers, though his running was a combination of power, speed (but not necessarily burst), and pure instinct. Lost in all of that is Adam Hine and Algie Brown. First off, two stats boggle the mind: 1) Paul Lasike has more carries than either of those guys and 2) Taysom/Jamaal each averaged more carries PER GAME than those guys have on the season.
This offensive line is built to run block; they aren't one of the top 10 rushing O-lines in the country but it's as good as BYU has had in some time. Against Texas, BYU was going to run the ball. They went right at Texas and just wore them down. One of the biggest front 7s in the country got worn down by the BYU rushing attack. BYU committed to running the football right at Texas, with attitude, with fire, and with absolute confidence. There was a game plan in place and they stuck to it. Texas slowed BYU up in the first half but BYU just overwhelmed them in the second (running pretty much the exact same plays). More so than an explosive Baylor offense did last weekend. But in the last 10 quarters, BYU had no obvious offensive strength outside of Taysom and Jamaal making something out of nothing. There has been no clear design on taking it to their opponents.
From the very start against Utah State, even before the injury to Taysom, BYU was all over the place on offense. Despite a large size advantage, BYU rarely tested the Aggies up the middle. They threw long passes and put the ball in Taysom's hands on the outside. Anae outsmarted himself. Algie Brown had one carry later in the game. Adam Hine had two total touches, and only one stemmed from the offensive playcalling. Jamaal and Taysom were clearly the best ball-carriers on the team, but they didn't need to carry all the load they did. Without Taysom now, can Anae re-engage more of a committee-style running game? It was as if, for a few games, he became enamored with Taysom for Heisman and Williams breaking Harvey Unga's all-time rushing record and forgot he had other guys (Algie did miss two games b/c of injury). Jamaal is now the leader of the offense, yes, but for him to make the plays necessary late in games, he's going to need more help from the rest of the backfield early in the games. If Hine and Brown don't get 10 carries, Anae isn't doing a good job.
2. Balance on DEFENSE
The BYU defense has prided itself on its ability to stop the run. Virginia had their way in the running game, going for 200 yards on 4.4 yards/carry. However, every other opponent has averaged 3.0 yards/carry or less. The DL has become so focused on, and so good at, eating up blockers in the run game that it appears they have spent zero time practicing, and zero effort in-game pursuing, their pass rush. Yes, there is technique that can help with a pass rush, but so much of a good pass rush, ESPECIALLY IN THE COLLEGE GAME, is just pure passion and aggression. Just once I would like to see a BYU DL push an OL backward, even if the DL gets his butt kicked and put on his back during the play: do something to change the status quo. Yes, BYU has done a pretty good job keeping opposing QBs in the pocket, but part of that is because they are so comfortable in their LARGE pocket that they don't need to move out of it.
BYU continues to blitz with their MLBs who continue to get no pressure. They aren't big enough to power rush the OGs they run up against. The DL aren't big enough threats to demand constant double teams so the interior can keep their eyes open for blitzing/crossing LBs. On one particular play against Utah State, BYU brought 6 guys and they got blocked by 5 guys: it should require 6 guys to block 5, even if your pass rush is average/mediocre. This isn't a knock on Nick Howell, but I'm guessing a veteran defensive coach like Bronco would have found a way to manufacture pressure against the Aggies.
BYU has gotten success bringing Safeties and Harvey Jackson playing Nickelback. Against spread offenses (like Houston, Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, and Cal) those blitzes from the secondary are more difficult to disguise. If you can't disguise it, those guys get picked up by RBs or, even worse for your pass rush, OTs. BYU's bread and butter blitz the past few seasons has been the OLBs. Even if the Cougars don't disguise it, those guys are big enough to deal with some opposing OL and fast/athletic enough to deal with the others. KVN and Ziggy Ansah used to blitz nearly every play, and opposing teams knew it, and they still got sack after sack after sack, hit after hit after hit.
BYU has to be willing to give up some of their run D to get into the head of opposing QBs! Utah State was doing double moves all night b/c they never had to worry that they wouldn't have time for the play to develop! They were probably on the sidelines drawing up plays in the dirt, or in the huddle on the palms of their hands. That is why 2 straight back-up QBs have had career days against BYU: they had all day to throw. Sell out on either the number of pass rushers or on the style of the DL's rush. At least once per possession send everybody like a bat out of hell.
3. Attitude
I have mentioned to several folks how the one thing missing right now from most of BYU's players is attitude. A Bronco-coached defense was always resilient in the face of adversity. No one ever scored a TD the next play after a turnover. No one ever threw a Hail Mary or an 80-yard bomb just before halftime. No one ever went an entire half (or game) without a three and out. BYU has showed some defensive grit in the 2nd half of the past three games, but a little more of that in the first half of those games would have gone a long way to producing a different final result.
Offensively, I don't see anyone getting over-aggression penalties. On defense, that is welcomed and almost encouraged. Nobody seems to have that edge, that desire to just blow someone up. There is no drive to open up a hole that a semi-truck could go through. It's been a few games since I've seen a hole that I could run through (or really that anyone besides Jamaal or Taysom could get through). Taysom, Jamaal, and Jordan Leslie are the only perimeter guys I have seen selling out on every play (Terenn Houk perhaps in his more limited time). Someone's going to have to take a stand this week against UCF. This will be the best defense BYU sees all season long. They are going up against it just two practices after Taysom's injury. Is there someone capable of putting it all on the line for the team and stepping up/filling the void left by Taysom? Lasike? Matthews? Mahina?
And the OL, where is the blocking we saw against UConn and Texas? Run-blocking is about technique and passion: I only see technique right now. For having such a deep OL, I don't see the bench being used as an in-game motivator for those just doing their jobs. You want to keep your job: pancake someone! Go watch how BYU attacked Texas. Go see what Anae's old O at Zona did to Oregon in Eugene last week. That is what BYU's O needs to look like, especially without Taysom.
BYU has not been the same team the past few games, and it's all about a lack of attitude. They started the year with a chip on their shoulder. Lately they've been playing like they had a clear, easy path to 12-0, like they were Alabama playing in the Mountain West Conference. Bronco says they're playing hard and the coaches are coaching hard. I don't think solid effort and conservative style are the same as playing/coaching hard. You can play aggressively and still be assignment-sound. Utah State brought passion to Provo and it made up for a lack of physical tools: they were playing hard. BYU needs to flip that script. And BYU needs to have fun doing it again!
If BYU wants to take a step forward against UCF this week: pound the rock, find balance on D, and just go absolutely crazy between the whistles.
1. Pound the Football
Jamaal Williams is a great running back. He's averaging nearly 20 carries and nearly 100 yards/game. He has amazing burst (but not necessarily great top-line speed), agility, and surprising power and ability to finish runs. Taysom had very similar numbers, though his running was a combination of power, speed (but not necessarily burst), and pure instinct. Lost in all of that is Adam Hine and Algie Brown. First off, two stats boggle the mind: 1) Paul Lasike has more carries than either of those guys and 2) Taysom/Jamaal each averaged more carries PER GAME than those guys have on the season.
This offensive line is built to run block; they aren't one of the top 10 rushing O-lines in the country but it's as good as BYU has had in some time. Against Texas, BYU was going to run the ball. They went right at Texas and just wore them down. One of the biggest front 7s in the country got worn down by the BYU rushing attack. BYU committed to running the football right at Texas, with attitude, with fire, and with absolute confidence. There was a game plan in place and they stuck to it. Texas slowed BYU up in the first half but BYU just overwhelmed them in the second (running pretty much the exact same plays). More so than an explosive Baylor offense did last weekend. But in the last 10 quarters, BYU had no obvious offensive strength outside of Taysom and Jamaal making something out of nothing. There has been no clear design on taking it to their opponents.
From the very start against Utah State, even before the injury to Taysom, BYU was all over the place on offense. Despite a large size advantage, BYU rarely tested the Aggies up the middle. They threw long passes and put the ball in Taysom's hands on the outside. Anae outsmarted himself. Algie Brown had one carry later in the game. Adam Hine had two total touches, and only one stemmed from the offensive playcalling. Jamaal and Taysom were clearly the best ball-carriers on the team, but they didn't need to carry all the load they did. Without Taysom now, can Anae re-engage more of a committee-style running game? It was as if, for a few games, he became enamored with Taysom for Heisman and Williams breaking Harvey Unga's all-time rushing record and forgot he had other guys (Algie did miss two games b/c of injury). Jamaal is now the leader of the offense, yes, but for him to make the plays necessary late in games, he's going to need more help from the rest of the backfield early in the games. If Hine and Brown don't get 10 carries, Anae isn't doing a good job.
2. Balance on DEFENSE
The BYU defense has prided itself on its ability to stop the run. Virginia had their way in the running game, going for 200 yards on 4.4 yards/carry. However, every other opponent has averaged 3.0 yards/carry or less. The DL has become so focused on, and so good at, eating up blockers in the run game that it appears they have spent zero time practicing, and zero effort in-game pursuing, their pass rush. Yes, there is technique that can help with a pass rush, but so much of a good pass rush, ESPECIALLY IN THE COLLEGE GAME, is just pure passion and aggression. Just once I would like to see a BYU DL push an OL backward, even if the DL gets his butt kicked and put on his back during the play: do something to change the status quo. Yes, BYU has done a pretty good job keeping opposing QBs in the pocket, but part of that is because they are so comfortable in their LARGE pocket that they don't need to move out of it.
BYU continues to blitz with their MLBs who continue to get no pressure. They aren't big enough to power rush the OGs they run up against. The DL aren't big enough threats to demand constant double teams so the interior can keep their eyes open for blitzing/crossing LBs. On one particular play against Utah State, BYU brought 6 guys and they got blocked by 5 guys: it should require 6 guys to block 5, even if your pass rush is average/mediocre. This isn't a knock on Nick Howell, but I'm guessing a veteran defensive coach like Bronco would have found a way to manufacture pressure against the Aggies.
BYU has gotten success bringing Safeties and Harvey Jackson playing Nickelback. Against spread offenses (like Houston, Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, and Cal) those blitzes from the secondary are more difficult to disguise. If you can't disguise it, those guys get picked up by RBs or, even worse for your pass rush, OTs. BYU's bread and butter blitz the past few seasons has been the OLBs. Even if the Cougars don't disguise it, those guys are big enough to deal with some opposing OL and fast/athletic enough to deal with the others. KVN and Ziggy Ansah used to blitz nearly every play, and opposing teams knew it, and they still got sack after sack after sack, hit after hit after hit.
BYU has to be willing to give up some of their run D to get into the head of opposing QBs! Utah State was doing double moves all night b/c they never had to worry that they wouldn't have time for the play to develop! They were probably on the sidelines drawing up plays in the dirt, or in the huddle on the palms of their hands. That is why 2 straight back-up QBs have had career days against BYU: they had all day to throw. Sell out on either the number of pass rushers or on the style of the DL's rush. At least once per possession send everybody like a bat out of hell.
3. Attitude
I have mentioned to several folks how the one thing missing right now from most of BYU's players is attitude. A Bronco-coached defense was always resilient in the face of adversity. No one ever scored a TD the next play after a turnover. No one ever threw a Hail Mary or an 80-yard bomb just before halftime. No one ever went an entire half (or game) without a three and out. BYU has showed some defensive grit in the 2nd half of the past three games, but a little more of that in the first half of those games would have gone a long way to producing a different final result.
Offensively, I don't see anyone getting over-aggression penalties. On defense, that is welcomed and almost encouraged. Nobody seems to have that edge, that desire to just blow someone up. There is no drive to open up a hole that a semi-truck could go through. It's been a few games since I've seen a hole that I could run through (or really that anyone besides Jamaal or Taysom could get through). Taysom, Jamaal, and Jordan Leslie are the only perimeter guys I have seen selling out on every play (Terenn Houk perhaps in his more limited time). Someone's going to have to take a stand this week against UCF. This will be the best defense BYU sees all season long. They are going up against it just two practices after Taysom's injury. Is there someone capable of putting it all on the line for the team and stepping up/filling the void left by Taysom? Lasike? Matthews? Mahina?
And the OL, where is the blocking we saw against UConn and Texas? Run-blocking is about technique and passion: I only see technique right now. For having such a deep OL, I don't see the bench being used as an in-game motivator for those just doing their jobs. You want to keep your job: pancake someone! Go watch how BYU attacked Texas. Go see what Anae's old O at Zona did to Oregon in Eugene last week. That is what BYU's O needs to look like, especially without Taysom.
BYU has not been the same team the past few games, and it's all about a lack of attitude. They started the year with a chip on their shoulder. Lately they've been playing like they had a clear, easy path to 12-0, like they were Alabama playing in the Mountain West Conference. Bronco says they're playing hard and the coaches are coaching hard. I don't think solid effort and conservative style are the same as playing/coaching hard. You can play aggressively and still be assignment-sound. Utah State brought passion to Provo and it made up for a lack of physical tools: they were playing hard. BYU needs to flip that script. And BYU needs to have fun doing it again!
If BYU wants to take a step forward against UCF this week: pound the rock, find balance on D, and just go absolutely crazy between the whistles.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
Utah State at BYU: Mo's Reaction
BYU did it again. They got everyone believing. They even got the national media asking the "what if" question and can Taysom get to New York. Then they ripped the hearts of the fans out. At least they got it all in during one night. It wasn't a prolonged demise.
On a night honoring Jim McMahon, they needed a less spectacular comeback than he led in the 1980 Miracle Bowl. They never even came close. The ball LITERALLY didn't bounce their way tonight. Multiple times. But, besides that, the front 7 made no plays on D. Yes, the game is different if Taysom doesn't get hurt. If he leads a game-tying TD drive before halftime, it's 21-21 at HT. I have Taysom Hill as my QB, I feel good about BYU turning it around. Or at least him putting up points until the D figures it out...if they ever figure it out.
As it was, a backup QB went 14/17 for 257 yards and 3 TDs against BYU's D. And that was just the first half. The O didn't help, never really establishing the running game. The best defense for BYU tonight would have been an offense that was committed to running the football. As with Virginia, they looked shell-shocked. I'm not sure they were prepared to stop a power-running game led by a LB, but if you aren't prepared for a slow RB running into the strength of your defense, what are you prepared for? Not getting a pass rush. Not covering WRs. I think the only think they were prepared to do was try to get the crowd amped up by waving their arms pre-snap. And then letting the fans down time and time again.
They flirted with disaster twice before this season and Taysom put the team on his back. Tonight, no one was able to pick up that mantle. But, then again, they didn't give anyone a chance with a helter-skelter offense the 2nd half trying to get 30+ yards every pass play followed by a dive up the middle.
So, BYU managed to trick their fans again. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 7 times in the past decade, shame on me. I'm not sure BYU can satisfy their fans again this season. I'm not sure even 11-1 will restore the passion. I've long feared that BYU is on the verge of losing their fan base. Then they were poised for a "special" season until tonight. Tonight was the first game they managed to break 60,000 fans this season. They may not break 55k the rest of the season...
There's a lot to analyze with this game, especially as it relates to what we've seen the rest of the season, but, what's the point?
On a night honoring Jim McMahon, they needed a less spectacular comeback than he led in the 1980 Miracle Bowl. They never even came close. The ball LITERALLY didn't bounce their way tonight. Multiple times. But, besides that, the front 7 made no plays on D. Yes, the game is different if Taysom doesn't get hurt. If he leads a game-tying TD drive before halftime, it's 21-21 at HT. I have Taysom Hill as my QB, I feel good about BYU turning it around. Or at least him putting up points until the D figures it out...if they ever figure it out.
As it was, a backup QB went 14/17 for 257 yards and 3 TDs against BYU's D. And that was just the first half. The O didn't help, never really establishing the running game. The best defense for BYU tonight would have been an offense that was committed to running the football. As with Virginia, they looked shell-shocked. I'm not sure they were prepared to stop a power-running game led by a LB, but if you aren't prepared for a slow RB running into the strength of your defense, what are you prepared for? Not getting a pass rush. Not covering WRs. I think the only think they were prepared to do was try to get the crowd amped up by waving their arms pre-snap. And then letting the fans down time and time again.
They flirted with disaster twice before this season and Taysom put the team on his back. Tonight, no one was able to pick up that mantle. But, then again, they didn't give anyone a chance with a helter-skelter offense the 2nd half trying to get 30+ yards every pass play followed by a dive up the middle.
So, BYU managed to trick their fans again. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 7 times in the past decade, shame on me. I'm not sure BYU can satisfy their fans again this season. I'm not sure even 11-1 will restore the passion. I've long feared that BYU is on the verge of losing their fan base. Then they were poised for a "special" season until tonight. Tonight was the first game they managed to break 60,000 fans this season. They may not break 55k the rest of the season...
There's a lot to analyze with this game, especially as it relates to what we've seen the rest of the season, but, what's the point?
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Utah State at BYU 10/3/2014: Mo's Prediction
It's been a fun few weeks to be a BYU fan. Taysom and BYU have been talked about more by the national college football guys than I can ever remember. Heisman trophy? Can BYU make playoff? Is BYU the best non-P5 team? Jim Rome. Twice. Doug Gottlieb. Dan Patrick. PTI. I think there was even a Scott Van Pelt Show appearance in there too.
Bronco summed it up perfectly this week when (twice) he said: it only lasts as long as the 0 in the L column. Taysom leaves the Heisman discussion with a loss (well, unless it was a 56-49 loss where he throws for 350 yards, rushes for 150, and has 6 TDs). Maybe people talk about BYU in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game at 11-1 but it's not as hot a topic, since all discussion is focused on the playoff anyway.
The "big news" for this week's game is that Chuckie Keeton will not play for Utah State. Bronson Kaufusi and Marques Johnson will suit up for BYU's D. Algie Brown, De'Ondre Wesley, and Nick Kurtz will do the same for the BYU O. I think it's great that BYU will be back at full strength. We can see what the team is truly capable of doing. Jordan Leslie has been better than Cody Hoffman was as a Junior. If BYU can get another guy going like that at WR, that'd be phenomenal. Jamaal Williams has carried the rushing load the past two games (though I don't get why Hine hasn't had more carries the past two games). Add Algie's physicality and athleticism to that mix and that's a great complement.
Kaufusi and Johnson add two big bodies to help create a pass rush. Kaufusi's athleticism and Johnson's size can either create opportunities for others b/c opposing O's commit bodies to stop those two or, if not, those guys can make plays on their own. Without Chuckie in the game, the D doesn't have to worry as much about keeping Darell Garretson contained: he's not a running threat. At all. He has one favorite target in the passing game: Hunter Sharp. Cover him, rush the passer, and Utah State's O might be in some trouble. If Chuckie had been available to play, I don't think it would have made much difference: Utah State's O would still have been hard-pressed to do much in Provo.
Utah State managed 14 points in Logan last season against a good BYU defense. They scored 3 in Provo 2 years ago against a really good BYU defense, though they should have been able to put up more against a 3-star recruit freshman QB (in only his 2nd career start) on the opposite side. They managed 24 points in 2011, but still lost. Now they face what I believe to be a great BYU defense (I believe Virginia was an aberration where the team wasn't mentally ready: that won't happen again this season, or at least shouldn't happen again!).
What BYU's D has been successful in doing to Utah State is forcing them to be one-dimensional. In 2011, BYU took away the pass and Turbin couldn't do enough by himself. In 2012, BYU took away everything. In 2013, BYU took away the run and forced Garretson to throw (after Keeton went down). If BYU can take away one dimension in Provo this year, I'm not sure Utah State is good enough right now to produce anything in the other dimension. This just isn't as talented a team as we've seen from Utah State the last 5 seasons.
I think the OL for BYU is going to come out wanting to punish some people. I think they see this game as a challenge: Utah State is one of the best rushing defenses in the country, statistically speaking. I think BYU has TWO 100-yard rushers. Taysom, Jamaal, Hine, or Brown. There might be too many backs to get 2 guys over 100, so how about 300 yards rushing? I think BYU will take a couple of shots deep in the passing game. If a couple of those hit, Taysom throws for 200+ as well. If not, they'll ride the OL and the combination of RBs and Taysom. I don't think the question is victory or not, it's by how many touchdowns. I'm going with 5: BYU 45, Utah State 10.
Bronco summed it up perfectly this week when (twice) he said: it only lasts as long as the 0 in the L column. Taysom leaves the Heisman discussion with a loss (well, unless it was a 56-49 loss where he throws for 350 yards, rushes for 150, and has 6 TDs). Maybe people talk about BYU in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game at 11-1 but it's not as hot a topic, since all discussion is focused on the playoff anyway.
The "big news" for this week's game is that Chuckie Keeton will not play for Utah State. Bronson Kaufusi and Marques Johnson will suit up for BYU's D. Algie Brown, De'Ondre Wesley, and Nick Kurtz will do the same for the BYU O. I think it's great that BYU will be back at full strength. We can see what the team is truly capable of doing. Jordan Leslie has been better than Cody Hoffman was as a Junior. If BYU can get another guy going like that at WR, that'd be phenomenal. Jamaal Williams has carried the rushing load the past two games (though I don't get why Hine hasn't had more carries the past two games). Add Algie's physicality and athleticism to that mix and that's a great complement.
Kaufusi and Johnson add two big bodies to help create a pass rush. Kaufusi's athleticism and Johnson's size can either create opportunities for others b/c opposing O's commit bodies to stop those two or, if not, those guys can make plays on their own. Without Chuckie in the game, the D doesn't have to worry as much about keeping Darell Garretson contained: he's not a running threat. At all. He has one favorite target in the passing game: Hunter Sharp. Cover him, rush the passer, and Utah State's O might be in some trouble. If Chuckie had been available to play, I don't think it would have made much difference: Utah State's O would still have been hard-pressed to do much in Provo.
Utah State managed 14 points in Logan last season against a good BYU defense. They scored 3 in Provo 2 years ago against a really good BYU defense, though they should have been able to put up more against a 3-star recruit freshman QB (in only his 2nd career start) on the opposite side. They managed 24 points in 2011, but still lost. Now they face what I believe to be a great BYU defense (I believe Virginia was an aberration where the team wasn't mentally ready: that won't happen again this season, or at least shouldn't happen again!).
What BYU's D has been successful in doing to Utah State is forcing them to be one-dimensional. In 2011, BYU took away the pass and Turbin couldn't do enough by himself. In 2012, BYU took away everything. In 2013, BYU took away the run and forced Garretson to throw (after Keeton went down). If BYU can take away one dimension in Provo this year, I'm not sure Utah State is good enough right now to produce anything in the other dimension. This just isn't as talented a team as we've seen from Utah State the last 5 seasons.
I think the OL for BYU is going to come out wanting to punish some people. I think they see this game as a challenge: Utah State is one of the best rushing defenses in the country, statistically speaking. I think BYU has TWO 100-yard rushers. Taysom, Jamaal, Hine, or Brown. There might be too many backs to get 2 guys over 100, so how about 300 yards rushing? I think BYU will take a couple of shots deep in the passing game. If a couple of those hit, Taysom throws for 200+ as well. If not, they'll ride the OL and the combination of RBs and Taysom. I don't think the question is victory or not, it's by how many touchdowns. I'm going with 5: BYU 45, Utah State 10.
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