Anyone Besides Jimmer Score 43 on SDSU Last Week?
How on earth could anybody other than Jimmer Fredette be the MWC Player of the Week last week? No player ever in the history of the conference had a more high-profile performance in a more high-stakes game. No player has ever brought so much notoriety to the conference in a single week, with the entire nation talking about the game, the performance, the MWC. He dropped 43 points on the 4th-ranked team in the country and single-handedly willed his team to victory. I repeat, in the highest stakes game ever played in the MWC, against one of the best defensive teams in the history of the conference, he scored 43 points on a night where only one other player on his team scored in double figures. He follows it up with a 32-point performance on the road in the biggest armpit in the MWC. The country was entirely enthralled with Jimmer all week long. What more could a single player in this joke of a conference possibly do to represent the conference in a better way or have a better week? Good riddance, MWC! One other thing I will not miss about the most ridiculous conference in America: New Mexico cheerleaders getting on the megaphone and yelling in BYU players' ears after they are called for fouls, travels, etc.
TCU-Boise State Game Moved
In other recent petty moves by the MWC, the MWC has announced that the TCU-Boise State football game will be played in Boise, instead of Fort Worth, where it was originally scheduled to be played. Why? I find no other reason than that the MWC is a bunch of bush league people running a bush league. Add this to the list of grievances so many of us had with the way this "organization" was run. WHAT A JOKE! No wonder BYU, Utah, and TCU couldn't wait to get out! I'm sure Boise State and Hawaii will be jumping ship as soon as they can too.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 30, 2011
The BYU Factor: Post BYU-New Mexico, 1/29/2011
The BYU Factor
BYU fans know all about this, though they may not have a fancy name for it. The BYU Factor is when a second-team All-Conference player plays like an All-American againts BYU or when an average (or bench) player performs like an All-Conference player. Against New Mexico, Lobos reserve guard Tony Snell went 4 for 6 on threes, including 3 makes in the final 5 minutes of the game, scoring a total of 16 points. Through 21 games, Snell had hit 14 threes on 36% shooting and was averaging 4 points/game. Add to that, New Mexico made 8 threes, including 5 in the final 5 minutes of play. On the season, they average 6 made threes/game. There is little other explanation than: the BYU Factor.
The Mo Jinx
I will also take some credit for the loss, however: yes, I have that much control of the universe. I finally bought into this team being completely different from past years' teams. I was finally to the point where my expectations were high enough that they could let me down, as I mentioned in my SDSU recap. And they finally did let me down. Plus, I picked them to win in their second toughest road test to date, which has been a recipe for disaster this season in BYU sports.
The Silver Lining
Flavordave asked me today for the silver lining. The best I could come up with: they finished in second place in the game on Saturday and deserve a silver medal. Realistically, though, there is a silver lining. The offensive woes that have plagued BYU in road games appear to be somewhat behind them. In the first 26 minutes of the game, BYU scored 63 points in the most hostile environment in the MWC. In the end, they scored 77 points at New Mexico. The other silver lining is that BYU wins that same game on a neutral court by 12 and at home by 25. They are clearly the better team and will prove it in Provo, and possibly again in the MWC tournament, if the seeding works out.
Cougar fans have to be pleased with a 20-2 record. If you were expecting better than this prior to the season, then you were very unrealistic. Wyoming is up next, which should be a nice, peaceful road win. BYU is still #2 in the RPI. BYU should still be in the top 10 when the polls come out late Monday morning, thanks to pretty much everybody else around them losing too. Only Notre Dame should jump them, and Villanova should drop below them, so they should hold steady at 9. They shouldn't be worse than 10, and I would probably doubt they move up any higher than 8, but you never know. My money is on 9.
Defense and Anti-Clutch
Jimmer missed 3 free throws, including the front end of a one-and-one. He also missed crucial shots at crucial junctures. Somebody has to have an incredible night one of these days. It is clear that Jimmer is trying to get others involved, but at crunch time, if no one has done it, he WILL take the shots, no matter how difficult they are. He still made a remarkable amount of them at New Mexico, but missed quite a few in the last 5 minutes as well. BYU was not clutch, in any way, shape, or form, because everyone had a long, emotional week and was at the end of a long, emotional game. This is still BYU, and most of these guys are still typical BYU players. Let's face it, they are a bunch of nice, unassuming guys from the Burbs.
With that said, BYU scoring 77 points should have been enough to win that game. Part of it was the BYU Factor, with New Mexico scoring 13 points above their season average, but a large part of it was bad defense. Some of the bad defense late in the game can be blamed on Jackson Emery's foul trouble. He couldn't stay in front of Gary because he couldn't risk fouling him. Because Gary could penetrate at will, he was finding open shots for himself and others. Like last season, in the Pit, BYU had no answer for Dairese Gary. He finished with 14 points and 10 assists, and completely controlled the final 8 minutes of the game, despite not sitting at all the entire game. He, on the other hand, is not a nice, unassuming guy from the Burbs.
BYU fans know all about this, though they may not have a fancy name for it. The BYU Factor is when a second-team All-Conference player plays like an All-American againts BYU or when an average (or bench) player performs like an All-Conference player. Against New Mexico, Lobos reserve guard Tony Snell went 4 for 6 on threes, including 3 makes in the final 5 minutes of the game, scoring a total of 16 points. Through 21 games, Snell had hit 14 threes on 36% shooting and was averaging 4 points/game. Add to that, New Mexico made 8 threes, including 5 in the final 5 minutes of play. On the season, they average 6 made threes/game. There is little other explanation than: the BYU Factor.
The Mo Jinx
I will also take some credit for the loss, however: yes, I have that much control of the universe. I finally bought into this team being completely different from past years' teams. I was finally to the point where my expectations were high enough that they could let me down, as I mentioned in my SDSU recap. And they finally did let me down. Plus, I picked them to win in their second toughest road test to date, which has been a recipe for disaster this season in BYU sports.
The Silver Lining
Flavordave asked me today for the silver lining. The best I could come up with: they finished in second place in the game on Saturday and deserve a silver medal. Realistically, though, there is a silver lining. The offensive woes that have plagued BYU in road games appear to be somewhat behind them. In the first 26 minutes of the game, BYU scored 63 points in the most hostile environment in the MWC. In the end, they scored 77 points at New Mexico. The other silver lining is that BYU wins that same game on a neutral court by 12 and at home by 25. They are clearly the better team and will prove it in Provo, and possibly again in the MWC tournament, if the seeding works out.
Cougar fans have to be pleased with a 20-2 record. If you were expecting better than this prior to the season, then you were very unrealistic. Wyoming is up next, which should be a nice, peaceful road win. BYU is still #2 in the RPI. BYU should still be in the top 10 when the polls come out late Monday morning, thanks to pretty much everybody else around them losing too. Only Notre Dame should jump them, and Villanova should drop below them, so they should hold steady at 9. They shouldn't be worse than 10, and I would probably doubt they move up any higher than 8, but you never know. My money is on 9.
Defense and Anti-Clutch
Jimmer missed 3 free throws, including the front end of a one-and-one. He also missed crucial shots at crucial junctures. Somebody has to have an incredible night one of these days. It is clear that Jimmer is trying to get others involved, but at crunch time, if no one has done it, he WILL take the shots, no matter how difficult they are. He still made a remarkable amount of them at New Mexico, but missed quite a few in the last 5 minutes as well. BYU was not clutch, in any way, shape, or form, because everyone had a long, emotional week and was at the end of a long, emotional game. This is still BYU, and most of these guys are still typical BYU players. Let's face it, they are a bunch of nice, unassuming guys from the Burbs.
With that said, BYU scoring 77 points should have been enough to win that game. Part of it was the BYU Factor, with New Mexico scoring 13 points above their season average, but a large part of it was bad defense. Some of the bad defense late in the game can be blamed on Jackson Emery's foul trouble. He couldn't stay in front of Gary because he couldn't risk fouling him. Because Gary could penetrate at will, he was finding open shots for himself and others. Like last season, in the Pit, BYU had no answer for Dairese Gary. He finished with 14 points and 10 assists, and completely controlled the final 8 minutes of the game, despite not sitting at all the entire game. He, on the other hand, is not a nice, unassuming guy from the Burbs.
Friday, January 28, 2011
BYU-New Mexico, 1/29/2011
Building on Momentum
Winning against SDSU at home was big for BYU and gave them a lot of street credibility. But it doesn't mean nearly as much if they follow it up with a loss at New Mexico in the same week. Jimmer scoring 43 points against SDSU made national headlines, tweets, and sports talk radio. But if he follows it up with a 33% shooting, 20-point performance in a loss, people will turn all of the talk back on Sullinger and Walker. He can't just be The Jimmer at New Mexico, he needs to be The Jimmest. Again. This is a big game for BYU and a big game for The Jimmer. They have got to win it.
How Will New Mexico Try to Stop Jimmer?
Lost in Jimmermania and all the discussion about how nobody can stop Jimmer is the fact that Jimmer faces a nemesis from last year that he did not defeat: Dairese Gary. Gary is just as tall as Jimmer, but stronger and quicker. I do not believe New Mexico will just play him one-on-one all game, but I do believe that Gary will be draped all over him all game long. Jimmer last year struggled against that type of full-court body-up defense. This year, he hasn't really seen that physical, quick, strong PG like Jacob Pullen yet. You can bet that Dairese Gary will take the challenge. I think he will guard him for much of the game and do well. Unless Jimmer goes all Jimmer on him in the first half and then Phillip McDonald and Kendall Williams may get a chance...
How Can New Mexico Win?
I do not believe that they are a strong enough team defensively to try to out-defense the Cougars. Any team that had any semblance of scoring that the Lobos played scored in the 60's against New Mexico, and none of them had the offense of BYU. BYU will probably be able to score at least 70 points, if not 80, regardless of how hostile the crowd is. New Mexico is going to win by making outside shots and having their guards penetrate into the lane. In MWC play, they have not scored nearly as much inside, and I do not anticipate them doing too much of that against BYU with Hartsock, Davies, and Anderson. So the onus is on Gary, Phillip McDonald, and Drew Gordon to put up points from outside 12 feet. McDonald has made 2/3 of his three pointers at home, so if he gets going, he's the guy BYU will have to watch out for.
How Can BYU Win?
Unlike New Mexico, BYU plays good enough team defense to win this game with their defense. I think BYU needs to play solid man-to-man defense. New Mexico will kill the zone with threes and get the crowd in the game. Emery will most likely have the charge to keep Gary out of the lane. Hartsock will probably be on Drew Gordon, depending on New Mexico's lineup. He's the biggest potential mismatch that I see for BYU. I don't see Davies and Anderson having much trouble with Hardeman and Kirk, whose production has hit the tank with conference play. If BYU can get ahead early and stay ahead, their defense should win this game. Their offense will get their points. They just need to keep New Mexico at 70 or under.
Prediction
A lot of people are worried about a "letdown" from BYU. If this were not New Mexico, I might think they could have one. 6 of the top 8 players on BYU's roster went 0-2 against New Mexico last season. If the game comes down to the wire, they may be spent physically and emotionally and falter, but only if it's a two-possession game, or closer, in the final 3 minutes. BYU may start slow, but they will get back to playing BYU basketball at some point in the first half. New Mexico can't trade punch-for-punch with BYU. They may slow Jimmer a little bit, or Jimmer may look to get his teammates involved more. He may only end up with 20 points, but he would have 8 assists. Or he'll end up with 30+ points. Jimmer will do whatever it takes, and certainly enough, for BYU to win. Not comfortably, as there is no such thing as a comfortable win at the Pit, but a win nonetheless. BYU 79, New Mexico 70.
Other MWC Games
Wyoming at SDSU: Aztecs 79, Cowboys 51 (sucks to be Wyoming right now: 1-5 in conference with a game at SDSU and against BYU to finish. SDSU will make the Lambs of Laramie their next sacrifice)
Colorado State at Utah: Utes 77, Rams 71 (it officially becomes a two-horse race in the MWC after this one, with CSU falling 3 games off the lead. I think Utah has some good wins left in them still.)
Air Force at TCU: Falcons 65, Horned Frogs 58 (this would be the first Air Force conference road win since 2/23/2008)
UNLV gets a bye, and a chance to regroup before finishing up with Utah at home as round one through the MWC concludes Wednesday night.
Winning against SDSU at home was big for BYU and gave them a lot of street credibility. But it doesn't mean nearly as much if they follow it up with a loss at New Mexico in the same week. Jimmer scoring 43 points against SDSU made national headlines, tweets, and sports talk radio. But if he follows it up with a 33% shooting, 20-point performance in a loss, people will turn all of the talk back on Sullinger and Walker. He can't just be The Jimmer at New Mexico, he needs to be The Jimmest. Again. This is a big game for BYU and a big game for The Jimmer. They have got to win it.
How Will New Mexico Try to Stop Jimmer?
Lost in Jimmermania and all the discussion about how nobody can stop Jimmer is the fact that Jimmer faces a nemesis from last year that he did not defeat: Dairese Gary. Gary is just as tall as Jimmer, but stronger and quicker. I do not believe New Mexico will just play him one-on-one all game, but I do believe that Gary will be draped all over him all game long. Jimmer last year struggled against that type of full-court body-up defense. This year, he hasn't really seen that physical, quick, strong PG like Jacob Pullen yet. You can bet that Dairese Gary will take the challenge. I think he will guard him for much of the game and do well. Unless Jimmer goes all Jimmer on him in the first half and then Phillip McDonald and Kendall Williams may get a chance...
How Can New Mexico Win?
I do not believe that they are a strong enough team defensively to try to out-defense the Cougars. Any team that had any semblance of scoring that the Lobos played scored in the 60's against New Mexico, and none of them had the offense of BYU. BYU will probably be able to score at least 70 points, if not 80, regardless of how hostile the crowd is. New Mexico is going to win by making outside shots and having their guards penetrate into the lane. In MWC play, they have not scored nearly as much inside, and I do not anticipate them doing too much of that against BYU with Hartsock, Davies, and Anderson. So the onus is on Gary, Phillip McDonald, and Drew Gordon to put up points from outside 12 feet. McDonald has made 2/3 of his three pointers at home, so if he gets going, he's the guy BYU will have to watch out for.
How Can BYU Win?
Unlike New Mexico, BYU plays good enough team defense to win this game with their defense. I think BYU needs to play solid man-to-man defense. New Mexico will kill the zone with threes and get the crowd in the game. Emery will most likely have the charge to keep Gary out of the lane. Hartsock will probably be on Drew Gordon, depending on New Mexico's lineup. He's the biggest potential mismatch that I see for BYU. I don't see Davies and Anderson having much trouble with Hardeman and Kirk, whose production has hit the tank with conference play. If BYU can get ahead early and stay ahead, their defense should win this game. Their offense will get their points. They just need to keep New Mexico at 70 or under.
Prediction
A lot of people are worried about a "letdown" from BYU. If this were not New Mexico, I might think they could have one. 6 of the top 8 players on BYU's roster went 0-2 against New Mexico last season. If the game comes down to the wire, they may be spent physically and emotionally and falter, but only if it's a two-possession game, or closer, in the final 3 minutes. BYU may start slow, but they will get back to playing BYU basketball at some point in the first half. New Mexico can't trade punch-for-punch with BYU. They may slow Jimmer a little bit, or Jimmer may look to get his teammates involved more. He may only end up with 20 points, but he would have 8 assists. Or he'll end up with 30+ points. Jimmer will do whatever it takes, and certainly enough, for BYU to win. Not comfortably, as there is no such thing as a comfortable win at the Pit, but a win nonetheless. BYU 79, New Mexico 70.
Other MWC Games
Wyoming at SDSU: Aztecs 79, Cowboys 51 (sucks to be Wyoming right now: 1-5 in conference with a game at SDSU and against BYU to finish. SDSU will make the Lambs of Laramie their next sacrifice)
Colorado State at Utah: Utes 77, Rams 71 (it officially becomes a two-horse race in the MWC after this one, with CSU falling 3 games off the lead. I think Utah has some good wins left in them still.)
Air Force at TCU: Falcons 65, Horned Frogs 58 (this would be the first Air Force conference road win since 2/23/2008)
UNLV gets a bye, and a chance to regroup before finishing up with Utah at home as round one through the MWC concludes Wednesday night.
One more interesting read
A buddy of mine sent me this one. It's an entirely statistical analysis of which teams should be in the tournament and which seeds they should get, again, based entirely on stats. BYU is listed as a #1 seed, as of today. Obviously, the Selection Committee only uses stats when it helps their cause, so it would be completely ignored in BYU's case. Also of note: BYU has played 6 games against the 68 NCAA Tournament teams from the site and is 5-1, with at least two more games to come, and probably 3, with a maximum of 4. While I believe it would take BYU running the table, including the MWC Tournament (or maybe dropping the game at SDSU and finishing 32-2, again winning the MWC Tournament), to get a 1-seed, it is nice to see BYU in the discussion. Last year they were in the discussion at one point too, if you'll remember. That didn't work out so well in the end...
http://seedmadness.home.comcast.net/~seedmadness/
http://seedmadness.home.comcast.net/~seedmadness/
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Some Interesting Reads
My buddy Shane sent me this one. At one point in time I started a list of all of the "petty" and "stupid" moves the MWC has made that I meant to post. This article addresses SOME of my list. It also gives some nice props to BYU.
http://www.collegefootballvoice.com/pb/the-mid-major-cause/
The next one is from the Wall Street Journal yesterday. It calls BYU the Duke of the West. Hated. Despised. Heckled. But winners.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704698004576104290412900776.html?mod=wsj_share_facebook
There are obviously a million articles out there today about Jimmer and BYU. Just go to a sports web site and you'll find them. I just cannot help but wish I had been born a few years later to remain in the student section for this special season: the entire nation is falling in love with The Jimmer, except for MWC teams for reasons that will become more obvious after reading the WSJ article...
http://www.collegefootballvoice.com/pb/the-mid-major-cause/
The next one is from the Wall Street Journal yesterday. It calls BYU the Duke of the West. Hated. Despised. Heckled. But winners.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704698004576104290412900776.html?mod=wsj_share_facebook
There are obviously a million articles out there today about Jimmer and BYU. Just go to a sports web site and you'll find them. I just cannot help but wish I had been born a few years later to remain in the student section for this special season: the entire nation is falling in love with The Jimmer, except for MWC teams for reasons that will become more obvious after reading the WSJ article...
Initial Reactions from SDSU-BYU, 1/26/2011
1) They sure let them play. On both ends of the court. It made for some ugly basketball. It was nearly impossible to get a foul called on a shot. Then they called a lot of the ticky-tack stuff on the dribble and on rebounds. It seems the refs were too busy watching the shot clock to see much of the rest of the action though. In a game as physical as it was: 28 total fouls called. And that missed goaltend was absolutely atrocious: three refs on the court and not one of them was watching the basketball? K, no more refs talk: it wasn't biased, it was just bad.
2) James, don't call me Jimmer, Anderson had some huge plays. He looks awful out there, but he got it done tonight. 5 blocks, 3 rebounds, and an offensive board and layup that gave BYU a 6-point lead midway through the second half. Without his defense, SDSU would have hung around longer and had a chance to win at the end. I know, I can't believe I'm saying this either: BYU needed James Anderson tonight.
3) It is absolutely unbelievable that Jimmer scored 43 points. He was double-teamed on nearly every possession. SDSU did not let him get out in transition ever. He had to earn every single point he got (minus two gift free throws on a ticky-tack call, which slightly made up for all of the no-calls in the first half...k, no more ref talk, starting now). To get 43 in that game, under those circumstances, with all of the hype leading up to it, against a top 10 team. Wow. There are no more words to describe Jimmer. They have all been said already.
4) The win at CSU made this game against SDSU even bigger. Now this win makes the game at the Pit on Saturday bigger than both of them. BYU cannot afford to follow up a win against SDSU on the big stage with a flop at New Mexico, even though it is such a tough place to play. BYU has simply got to have that game if they want a great seed and preferential treatment in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, if they get that game in the Pit, it just proves that they can win in March too, with or without a great seed.
5) BYU just simply found a way to win tonight. They have been winning games so many different ways, but this one was brand new. Emery, Hartsock, and Collinsworth combine for 10 points. Anderson plays 14 minutes. SDSU gets 18 offensive rebounds and outrebounds BYU by 7 in total. Kawhi Leonard scores 22 points and gets 15 rebounds. And BYU won by 13 points? Against a top 10 team? No chance that should happen. Jimmer can carry the team on his back if he has to.
6) I firmly believe that BYU has a great chance to win at SDSU in exactly one month. First off, defensively, everybody (but Collinsworth in the second half) did very well. Early on SDSU was hitting some tough shots, eventually it was going to catch up to them and it did. BYU had a brief spat with poor rebounding at the end when the game got frantic. Secondly, with all of the role players going into a complete shell for most of the game, they still scored 71 points. I don't think we'll ever see Emery 1-7 again, with his only make being a dunk, and missing four open threes, and five in total. The bench went 1 for 9 with 4 points. 6 of the 8 Cougars that stepped on the floor played poorly on offense. If they get any production from the rest of the group, they should have a chance in San Diego. That one is on an even bigger stage than this one though: can the role players deal with even bigger hype? If one of them does, it may be enough.
7) The altitude and the crowd played a big role. This is a typical BYU-SDSU game played in Provo: SDSU hangs with BYU for 35 minutes. At the 5-minute mark in the second half, it was 56-52. Two minutes later it was a 10-point game. The last 5 minutes for SDSU featured 2-6 from the free throw line, 0-5 from three, and scoring only 6 points despite getting 7 offensive rebounds and only 1 turnover. SDSU was forced to take a timeout every time the crowd got really into it. Those two factors were huge. When BYU went on that late run, SDSU only had one timeout and needed to save it.
I am now a full-fledged believer. I guess that means BYU will lose on Saturday. That is the BYU I grew up with: toy with you, toy with you, reel you in, and then let you down. I am fully ready to be let down, because I am fully on-board with BYU playing in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and who knows, maybe even that final weekend if they get the right draw. They probably got a better shot at the West Regional and also Denver on the first weekend with this win against SDSU.
2) James, don't call me Jimmer, Anderson had some huge plays. He looks awful out there, but he got it done tonight. 5 blocks, 3 rebounds, and an offensive board and layup that gave BYU a 6-point lead midway through the second half. Without his defense, SDSU would have hung around longer and had a chance to win at the end. I know, I can't believe I'm saying this either: BYU needed James Anderson tonight.
3) It is absolutely unbelievable that Jimmer scored 43 points. He was double-teamed on nearly every possession. SDSU did not let him get out in transition ever. He had to earn every single point he got (minus two gift free throws on a ticky-tack call, which slightly made up for all of the no-calls in the first half...k, no more ref talk, starting now). To get 43 in that game, under those circumstances, with all of the hype leading up to it, against a top 10 team. Wow. There are no more words to describe Jimmer. They have all been said already.
4) The win at CSU made this game against SDSU even bigger. Now this win makes the game at the Pit on Saturday bigger than both of them. BYU cannot afford to follow up a win against SDSU on the big stage with a flop at New Mexico, even though it is such a tough place to play. BYU has simply got to have that game if they want a great seed and preferential treatment in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, if they get that game in the Pit, it just proves that they can win in March too, with or without a great seed.
5) BYU just simply found a way to win tonight. They have been winning games so many different ways, but this one was brand new. Emery, Hartsock, and Collinsworth combine for 10 points. Anderson plays 14 minutes. SDSU gets 18 offensive rebounds and outrebounds BYU by 7 in total. Kawhi Leonard scores 22 points and gets 15 rebounds. And BYU won by 13 points? Against a top 10 team? No chance that should happen. Jimmer can carry the team on his back if he has to.
6) I firmly believe that BYU has a great chance to win at SDSU in exactly one month. First off, defensively, everybody (but Collinsworth in the second half) did very well. Early on SDSU was hitting some tough shots, eventually it was going to catch up to them and it did. BYU had a brief spat with poor rebounding at the end when the game got frantic. Secondly, with all of the role players going into a complete shell for most of the game, they still scored 71 points. I don't think we'll ever see Emery 1-7 again, with his only make being a dunk, and missing four open threes, and five in total. The bench went 1 for 9 with 4 points. 6 of the 8 Cougars that stepped on the floor played poorly on offense. If they get any production from the rest of the group, they should have a chance in San Diego. That one is on an even bigger stage than this one though: can the role players deal with even bigger hype? If one of them does, it may be enough.
7) The altitude and the crowd played a big role. This is a typical BYU-SDSU game played in Provo: SDSU hangs with BYU for 35 minutes. At the 5-minute mark in the second half, it was 56-52. Two minutes later it was a 10-point game. The last 5 minutes for SDSU featured 2-6 from the free throw line, 0-5 from three, and scoring only 6 points despite getting 7 offensive rebounds and only 1 turnover. SDSU was forced to take a timeout every time the crowd got really into it. Those two factors were huge. When BYU went on that late run, SDSU only had one timeout and needed to save it.
I am now a full-fledged believer. I guess that means BYU will lose on Saturday. That is the BYU I grew up with: toy with you, toy with you, reel you in, and then let you down. I am fully ready to be let down, because I am fully on-board with BYU playing in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and who knows, maybe even that final weekend if they get the right draw. They probably got a better shot at the West Regional and also Denver on the first weekend with this win against SDSU.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
SDSU-BYU Prediction, 1/26/2011
SDSU Guarding Jimmer
When playing a superstar, as Fredette has been this season, there are two schools of thought. 1) Guard him one-on-one and do not let anybody else beat you: force Jimmer to score 60 points to beat you. 2) Put the entire focus of your defense on him and make the supporting cast beat you. In the NBA particularly, both of these philosophies have been well-tested: both have worked beautifully and both have failed miserably. Sometimes Kobe Bryant went off for 70 and it was enough for the Lakers to win, and sometimes he goes 11 for 36. Sometimes Lebron ended games in Cleveland with a triple-double, including 10+ assists, and sometimes Lebron's Cavalier teammates shot under 30%. I am not comparing Jimmer to Kobe and Lebron, just pointing out that both strategies can work and both can fail.
It appears SDSU is planning to employ the second philosophy. This means that, barring Jimmer still going off for 40 points even with 5 SDSU defenders focused on him, this game will come down to the "other guys" on the team. Jackson Emery must hit his threes, Kyle Collinsworth must finish around the rim, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies must make the open shots they get as the defense can reacts, and Logan Magnusson must get offensive rebounds as the floor opens up with the extra attention on Jimmer. They don't all need to be successful. However, they'll need to combine for 40+ points and grab 5 or more offensive rebounds, which would require 3 of them to do quite well. Of course, if they pay that kind of attention to Jimmer and they still get Jimmered: good night Aztecs.
BYU Protecting the Glass
San Diego State leads the nation in percentage of missed shots rebounded, i.e. they are the best statistical offensive rebounding team in all of college basketball. BYU must do 2 things: 1) prevent them from getting rebounds and 2) make them pay for crashing the boards so hard. However, doing both is a difficult proposition. To prevent them from rebounding takes great team rebounding, i.e. it takes all 5 guys rebounding. To make them pay for crashing the boards takes having guys ready to run in transition when the defensive rebound is secured, i.e. it takes 1 or 2 guys not rebounding.
Last season in two games against SDSU, BYU limited the Aztecs to 7 offensive rebounds in Provo. BYU also had 17 fast break opportunities off of securing rebounds. This netted 20 points, 5 SDSU fouls, and two Aztec timeouts while BYU only committed 3 turnovers directly as a result of trying to run in transition. [Fast break opportunities are shot attempts or SDSU fouls committed within 10 seconds of a BYU defensive rebound.] That is preventing SDSU from getting rebounds and punishing them for committing too many guys to the offensive glass. 11 of the 17 opportunities came in the first half. BYU will probably need a similar performance tonight: hold SDSU to under 10-12 offensive boards and get 15+ points, draw 4+ fouls, and force 2+ timeouts to be taken, all while taking care of the ball in transition.
Prediction
Well, now comes the moment that I have debated back and forth all week. SDSU had one major advantage and one major disadvantage: they had a bye. They got rest and they had time to come up with a gameplan. But they have had a week of being asked about this game by everyone they know, they have had time to soak in the hype of the game, and they have had time to think about it. Anxiety must be killing them. But, at the same time, they are well-prepared and well-rested. Which one will prove more crucial in Provo tonight?
I have misjudged this BYU all season. I have treated them like a typical BYU team. A typical BYU team would have lost two or three non-conference games. A typical BYU team would have folded under the bright lights of Vegas. A typical BYU team would have let Utah hang in the game long enough to have a chance late. A typical BYU team would miss wide open shots all night at home against this top 10 SDSU team. This is no typical BYU team and Jimmer is no typical player. Jimmer cannot win this game by himself, but he can keep BYU in the game long enough for other players to step up. If Jimmer starts slow, his teammates can carry the load until he has one of those 16-points-in-5-minutes bursts. That is the beauty of this BYU team. The home crowd energizes the role players. The altitude gets SDSU sucking wind. 22,700 strong will be witnesses tonight of an atypical BYU team. BYU pulls off the win: BYU 78, SDSU 72.
Those of you aware of my track record on picking BYU games this year, probably cringe and wish I would have picked against them...sorry. It's "go" time, and Jimmer and this BYU team are "go" players. Win this game, and I buy into a possible Elite Eight run. Lose, well, lose and maybe this is a typical BYU team after all...
When playing a superstar, as Fredette has been this season, there are two schools of thought. 1) Guard him one-on-one and do not let anybody else beat you: force Jimmer to score 60 points to beat you. 2) Put the entire focus of your defense on him and make the supporting cast beat you. In the NBA particularly, both of these philosophies have been well-tested: both have worked beautifully and both have failed miserably. Sometimes Kobe Bryant went off for 70 and it was enough for the Lakers to win, and sometimes he goes 11 for 36. Sometimes Lebron ended games in Cleveland with a triple-double, including 10+ assists, and sometimes Lebron's Cavalier teammates shot under 30%. I am not comparing Jimmer to Kobe and Lebron, just pointing out that both strategies can work and both can fail.
It appears SDSU is planning to employ the second philosophy. This means that, barring Jimmer still going off for 40 points even with 5 SDSU defenders focused on him, this game will come down to the "other guys" on the team. Jackson Emery must hit his threes, Kyle Collinsworth must finish around the rim, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies must make the open shots they get as the defense can reacts, and Logan Magnusson must get offensive rebounds as the floor opens up with the extra attention on Jimmer. They don't all need to be successful. However, they'll need to combine for 40+ points and grab 5 or more offensive rebounds, which would require 3 of them to do quite well. Of course, if they pay that kind of attention to Jimmer and they still get Jimmered: good night Aztecs.
BYU Protecting the Glass
San Diego State leads the nation in percentage of missed shots rebounded, i.e. they are the best statistical offensive rebounding team in all of college basketball. BYU must do 2 things: 1) prevent them from getting rebounds and 2) make them pay for crashing the boards so hard. However, doing both is a difficult proposition. To prevent them from rebounding takes great team rebounding, i.e. it takes all 5 guys rebounding. To make them pay for crashing the boards takes having guys ready to run in transition when the defensive rebound is secured, i.e. it takes 1 or 2 guys not rebounding.
Last season in two games against SDSU, BYU limited the Aztecs to 7 offensive rebounds in Provo. BYU also had 17 fast break opportunities off of securing rebounds. This netted 20 points, 5 SDSU fouls, and two Aztec timeouts while BYU only committed 3 turnovers directly as a result of trying to run in transition. [Fast break opportunities are shot attempts or SDSU fouls committed within 10 seconds of a BYU defensive rebound.] That is preventing SDSU from getting rebounds and punishing them for committing too many guys to the offensive glass. 11 of the 17 opportunities came in the first half. BYU will probably need a similar performance tonight: hold SDSU to under 10-12 offensive boards and get 15+ points, draw 4+ fouls, and force 2+ timeouts to be taken, all while taking care of the ball in transition.
Prediction
Well, now comes the moment that I have debated back and forth all week. SDSU had one major advantage and one major disadvantage: they had a bye. They got rest and they had time to come up with a gameplan. But they have had a week of being asked about this game by everyone they know, they have had time to soak in the hype of the game, and they have had time to think about it. Anxiety must be killing them. But, at the same time, they are well-prepared and well-rested. Which one will prove more crucial in Provo tonight?
I have misjudged this BYU all season. I have treated them like a typical BYU team. A typical BYU team would have lost two or three non-conference games. A typical BYU team would have folded under the bright lights of Vegas. A typical BYU team would have let Utah hang in the game long enough to have a chance late. A typical BYU team would miss wide open shots all night at home against this top 10 SDSU team. This is no typical BYU team and Jimmer is no typical player. Jimmer cannot win this game by himself, but he can keep BYU in the game long enough for other players to step up. If Jimmer starts slow, his teammates can carry the load until he has one of those 16-points-in-5-minutes bursts. That is the beauty of this BYU team. The home crowd energizes the role players. The altitude gets SDSU sucking wind. 22,700 strong will be witnesses tonight of an atypical BYU team. BYU pulls off the win: BYU 78, SDSU 72.
Those of you aware of my track record on picking BYU games this year, probably cringe and wish I would have picked against them...sorry. It's "go" time, and Jimmer and this BYU team are "go" players. Win this game, and I buy into a possible Elite Eight run. Lose, well, lose and maybe this is a typical BYU team after all...
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
MWC Hoops Games, 1/25-1/26
UNLV at Wyoming, Tuesday Night
Both teams "need" this win. Wyoming is on a 3-game losing streak, all by 17 or more points. UNLV needs to rattle off 10-straight to have any chance for a conference title. Wyoming has only scored more than 60 points in one of 5 MWC games. UNLV has scored more than 60 in every conference game but one (@ San Diego State). UNLV comes up with a big road win: Rebels 71, Wyoming 53.
Air Force at Colorado State
CSU is coming off of a spirited effort against BYU, preceded by a win at UNLV. Air Force is coming off of a big win against Wyoming. CSU has a huge advantage inside and will try to take it to Air Force's matchup zone inside, opening up Eikmeier, Carr, Green, and Nigon outside. This one could get ugly if CSU doesn't have any hangover from the BYU game. Rams 79, Falcons 55.
TCU at New Mexico
At this point in the season, I didn't peg these two teams as battling to stay out of last place. But such are the current standings. TCU has only won two games in the past month and both were at home (against 8-11 Wyoming and 5-15 Chicago State). How will New Mexico respond after a last-second loss at UNLV to complete a 3-game losing streak? This is where the Lobos need that senior leader at PG Dairese Gary to step up, man up, and play up. The last two games he had 7 turnovers and 7 fouls. He did score as well, but he needs to play more like he did against SDSU (23 points and 7 assists). The Lobos should win, but they need to roll the Horned Frogs. I believe they will: Lobos 81, Horned Frogs 61.
You heard it here first: blowouts across the board in the MWC this week. There is one game, a bit more high profile than these three, which may play out a bit closer, and I'll write about that one on Wednesday.
Both teams "need" this win. Wyoming is on a 3-game losing streak, all by 17 or more points. UNLV needs to rattle off 10-straight to have any chance for a conference title. Wyoming has only scored more than 60 points in one of 5 MWC games. UNLV has scored more than 60 in every conference game but one (@ San Diego State). UNLV comes up with a big road win: Rebels 71, Wyoming 53.
Air Force at Colorado State
CSU is coming off of a spirited effort against BYU, preceded by a win at UNLV. Air Force is coming off of a big win against Wyoming. CSU has a huge advantage inside and will try to take it to Air Force's matchup zone inside, opening up Eikmeier, Carr, Green, and Nigon outside. This one could get ugly if CSU doesn't have any hangover from the BYU game. Rams 79, Falcons 55.
TCU at New Mexico
At this point in the season, I didn't peg these two teams as battling to stay out of last place. But such are the current standings. TCU has only won two games in the past month and both were at home (against 8-11 Wyoming and 5-15 Chicago State). How will New Mexico respond after a last-second loss at UNLV to complete a 3-game losing streak? This is where the Lobos need that senior leader at PG Dairese Gary to step up, man up, and play up. The last two games he had 7 turnovers and 7 fouls. He did score as well, but he needs to play more like he did against SDSU (23 points and 7 assists). The Lobos should win, but they need to roll the Horned Frogs. I believe they will: Lobos 81, Horned Frogs 61.
You heard it here first: blowouts across the board in the MWC this week. There is one game, a bit more high profile than these three, which may play out a bit closer, and I'll write about that one on Wednesday.
Monday, January 24, 2011
SDSU-BYU, 1/26/2011 Part II
SDSU's Backcourt
PG D.J. Gay; Senior; 12.8 Points/Game, 3.2 Assists/Game, .7 Steals/Game
SG Chase Tapley; Sophomore; 8.2 PPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG
SG James Rahon; Sophomore; 7.3 PPG, .7 APG, .4 SPG
BYU's Backcourt
PG Jimmer Fredette; Senior; 26.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 SPG
SG Jackson Emery; Senior; 13.0 PPG, 2.6 APG, 2.6 SPG
Leadership
D.J. Gay, Jimmer Fredette, and Jackson Emery are all leaders, in their own way, on the floor. The three seniors taking the floor together is about as good a threesome of guards on the court at any time in the history of the MWC. Gay has been shooting the ball better this season, and he has helped the team keep their calm in tough road games, scoring 30 points at New Mexico and playing 38 minutes at Gonzaga. His steadiness has allowed SDSU to win those games it usually loses (a game at BYU falls in that category as well: last win was 6 seasons ago, by two points after Mike Hall missed-or was fouled, depending on whom you ask-on a buzzer-beater to win). Jimmer has done it with scoring and with passing. He has scored 30 or more 6 times this season and has 10 games of 5 or more assists. Jackson has hit more clutch shots through 20 games this season than any BYU player in the last 20 years. Jimmer may be the "Baby-Faced Assassin" but Jackson is the Run-Stopper. The Aztecs will go on a few of those, Jackson will need to continue to be nails.
How They Match Up
Much like the discussion on the bigs is dominated by SDSU, the little guys swings in favor of BYU. The duo of Fredette and Emery outscore the trio of Gay, Tapley, and Rahon by over 10 points/game. They also get 1.0 more assists, 1.0 more rebounds and 1.4 more steals. Again, that is two BYU players to three SDSU players.
How SDSU Wins the Guard Matchup
Essentially, the same way the BYU bigs win: by not allowing Jimmer and Jackson to control the game. They need to find Jimmer and Jackson in open space and prevent them from running. D.J. Gay is not a good enough defender to stop Jimmer by himself. It will be a team effort (and I wouldn't be shocked to see Tapley get the lion's share of time trying to stay in front of Fredette). But Gay does need to focus more effort on the defensive side of the floor and let his bigs focus on putting up points. Gay, Rahon, and Tapley hitting a few threes would also spread the floor, giving the bigs more room to operate.
How BYU Wins the Guard Matchup
Jimmer and Jackson need to push the action. They need to combine for 45 or 50 points. Jackson needs to hit threes to open up the floor. His defense will also be crucial: he needs to deny the big men easy entry passes. If he can come away with 3 or 4 steals, BYU will be able to get in transition and try to run the Aztecs out of the gym. Jimmer will probably not be guarded exclusively by D.J. Gay as Jimmer has 25 points on him, so he'll need to recognize who is on him and take advantage of his mismatches: muscle up on, and/or shoot over, Gay, penetrate on Rahon, Tapley, and anyone else that SDSU throws at him.
Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU will not do better than BYU at the guard line. If they do, SDSU wins by double digits, and probably by 20 or more. SDSU has the experienced point guard to make a difference in this road game, but, unfortunately, his defense is not his strong suit. SDSU needs a solid defender to win this battle with two great scorers on the opposite side. BYU isn't going up against great scorers on the opposite side, but they happen to have a great defender. The other wild card for SDSU: two talented, but young guards alongside Gay. How will they perform in this hostile environment? Tapley did well at New Mexico but poorly at Gonzaga. Rahon did well at Gonzaga, but was average at New Mexico. This is a big stage and they are going to see a big-time defender in Jackson Emery. They cannot be inconsistent (or poor all of the time), which is what usually plagues more inexperienced players. If they both play well together? BYU fans probably don't want to see the result of that. Experience at home vs. athleticism on the road? I'd rather have BYU's guards. But then again, I'd rather have SDSU's big men...which will prevail?
The Broadcast
The first of two battles for the MWC crown starts at 8:15pm Mountain Time, Wednesday night, on CBS-College Sports. Round two: exactly one month later on February 26th, on CBS (like the regular CBS) at noon Mountain Time. Put it on the calendar now and don't double-book yourself. For those debating making a trip to SoCal in February, I'll save you the trouble: it's already sold out.
PG D.J. Gay; Senior; 12.8 Points/Game, 3.2 Assists/Game, .7 Steals/Game
SG Chase Tapley; Sophomore; 8.2 PPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG
SG James Rahon; Sophomore; 7.3 PPG, .7 APG, .4 SPG
BYU's Backcourt
PG Jimmer Fredette; Senior; 26.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 SPG
SG Jackson Emery; Senior; 13.0 PPG, 2.6 APG, 2.6 SPG
Leadership
D.J. Gay, Jimmer Fredette, and Jackson Emery are all leaders, in their own way, on the floor. The three seniors taking the floor together is about as good a threesome of guards on the court at any time in the history of the MWC. Gay has been shooting the ball better this season, and he has helped the team keep their calm in tough road games, scoring 30 points at New Mexico and playing 38 minutes at Gonzaga. His steadiness has allowed SDSU to win those games it usually loses (a game at BYU falls in that category as well: last win was 6 seasons ago, by two points after Mike Hall missed-or was fouled, depending on whom you ask-on a buzzer-beater to win). Jimmer has done it with scoring and with passing. He has scored 30 or more 6 times this season and has 10 games of 5 or more assists. Jackson has hit more clutch shots through 20 games this season than any BYU player in the last 20 years. Jimmer may be the "Baby-Faced Assassin" but Jackson is the Run-Stopper. The Aztecs will go on a few of those, Jackson will need to continue to be nails.
How They Match Up
Much like the discussion on the bigs is dominated by SDSU, the little guys swings in favor of BYU. The duo of Fredette and Emery outscore the trio of Gay, Tapley, and Rahon by over 10 points/game. They also get 1.0 more assists, 1.0 more rebounds and 1.4 more steals. Again, that is two BYU players to three SDSU players.
How SDSU Wins the Guard Matchup
Essentially, the same way the BYU bigs win: by not allowing Jimmer and Jackson to control the game. They need to find Jimmer and Jackson in open space and prevent them from running. D.J. Gay is not a good enough defender to stop Jimmer by himself. It will be a team effort (and I wouldn't be shocked to see Tapley get the lion's share of time trying to stay in front of Fredette). But Gay does need to focus more effort on the defensive side of the floor and let his bigs focus on putting up points. Gay, Rahon, and Tapley hitting a few threes would also spread the floor, giving the bigs more room to operate.
How BYU Wins the Guard Matchup
Jimmer and Jackson need to push the action. They need to combine for 45 or 50 points. Jackson needs to hit threes to open up the floor. His defense will also be crucial: he needs to deny the big men easy entry passes. If he can come away with 3 or 4 steals, BYU will be able to get in transition and try to run the Aztecs out of the gym. Jimmer will probably not be guarded exclusively by D.J. Gay as Jimmer has 25 points on him, so he'll need to recognize who is on him and take advantage of his mismatches: muscle up on, and/or shoot over, Gay, penetrate on Rahon, Tapley, and anyone else that SDSU throws at him.
Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU will not do better than BYU at the guard line. If they do, SDSU wins by double digits, and probably by 20 or more. SDSU has the experienced point guard to make a difference in this road game, but, unfortunately, his defense is not his strong suit. SDSU needs a solid defender to win this battle with two great scorers on the opposite side. BYU isn't going up against great scorers on the opposite side, but they happen to have a great defender. The other wild card for SDSU: two talented, but young guards alongside Gay. How will they perform in this hostile environment? Tapley did well at New Mexico but poorly at Gonzaga. Rahon did well at Gonzaga, but was average at New Mexico. This is a big stage and they are going to see a big-time defender in Jackson Emery. They cannot be inconsistent (or poor all of the time), which is what usually plagues more inexperienced players. If they both play well together? BYU fans probably don't want to see the result of that. Experience at home vs. athleticism on the road? I'd rather have BYU's guards. But then again, I'd rather have SDSU's big men...which will prevail?
The Broadcast
The first of two battles for the MWC crown starts at 8:15pm Mountain Time, Wednesday night, on CBS-College Sports. Round two: exactly one month later on February 26th, on CBS (like the regular CBS) at noon Mountain Time. Put it on the calendar now and don't double-book yourself. For those debating making a trip to SoCal in February, I'll save you the trouble: it's already sold out.
SDSU-BYU, 1/26/2011 Part I
SDSU Front Line
SF Kawhi Leonard; Sophomore; 6'7" 225; 15.7 points/game, 10.3 rebounds/game
PF Tim Shelton; Junior; 6'7" 245; 2.1 points/game, 1.9 rebounds/game
PF Malcolm Thomas; Senior; 6'9" 220; 11.9 points/game, 8.1 rebounds/game, 2.1 blocks/game
PF Billy White; Senior; 6'8" 235; 9.7 points/game, 3.4 rebounds/game
C Brian Carlwell; Senior; 6'11" 300; 3.9 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game
BYU Front Line
SF Kyle Collinsworth; Freshman; 6'6" 210; 7.4 points/game, 4.0 rebounds/game
SF Charles Abouo; Junior; 6'5" 215; 5.3 points/game, 4.8 rebounds/game
SF/PF Stephen Rogers; Sophomore; 6'8" 195; 4.1 points/game, 2.3 rebounds/game
PF Logan Magnusson; Senior; 6'6" 210; 2.1 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game
PF Noah Hartsock; Junior; 6'8" 230; 9.8 points/game, 5.8 rebounds/game, 1.6 blocks/game
C Brandon Davies; Sophomore; 6'9" 235; 11.3 points/game, 5.7 rebounds/game
Recent History
Billy White has played the most games of any SDSU Big Man against BYU: he is 2-5 overall and 0-3 in the Marriott Center. He averages 8.3 points/game and 5.3 rebounds/game. At the Marriott Center he averages 9.7 points/game and 5.0 rebounds/game. Last year's game in Provo was not a very good game for the SDSU Big Men. They tallied just 33 points and 18 rebounds (the season average was 39.4 PPG and 24.6 RPG). Kawhi Leonard and Billy White were both sucking wind and pulled themselves out at crucial junctures in the second half. With the nice scheduling break SDSU got from the MWC, getting a bye prior to playing BYU, they should be rested, which will help with altitude adjustment.
Noah Hartsock is the most experienced Cougar Big Man. He is 2-0 at the Marriott Center, but has scored 0 points against SDSU at home. In last season's dominating performance against SDSU in the Marriott Center, 5 current Cougar Big Men contributed. Well, kind of. The returning Cougar Big Men that played are Hartsock, Brandon Davies, Charles Abouo, Logan Magnusson, and James Anderson. They played 55 minutes, scored 10 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, had 1 block and 1 steal, and committed 5 fouls. I realize that the Backcourt is BYU's strength, but they will need more of a contribution from this group than that. Though reproducing only five fouls would be a nice number.
How They Match Up
On paper, SDSU is completely dominant at the 3-5 spots (I only listed those averaging more than 10 minutes/game). Carlwell could exploit Davies with his size. White could exploit Hartsock with his quickness. Leonard can exploit Collinsworth with his power. If James Anderson enters the game, like last year, it is instant points for SDSU as they immediately throw the ball in to whomever he guards for a layup. When Chris Collinsworth had season-ending surgery earlier this month, I looked at BYU's schedule and thought: SDSU is the only game (or two games, but I had marked the game at SDSU as a likely loss prior to the season anyway) that it is going to matter for BYU until probably the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. CSU tried to prove me wrong, but this is the one game where lack of depth upfront could kill BYU.
How SDSU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Play a halfcourt game. Crash the offensive boards hard (and get them). Force the issue in the middle and, as a result, get Davies and Hartsock to get in foul trouble. Take the crowd out of the game by getting a lot of easy baskets from the big guys. Defensively, they just need to contain the BYU bigs, 16 points or less is a good number.
How BYU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Get out and run. The same gameplan as last season: punish the Aztecs for sending too many guys to crash the boards, and too few back on defense. Keep Davies and Hartsock out of foul trouble (mixing up man and zone, playing Abouo and Magnusson BEFORE these two get in trouble). The crowd must stay in the game and have reasons to cheer, not just reasons to boo (foul calls). It is all about the fast break for BYU: neutralize the bigs by making them run up and down the floor.
Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU clearly has the advantage and will get more production from their big guys. However, the BYU Big Men don't need to outproduce the Aztecs to get a "win" in this positional battle. BYU only needs to keep them from dominating the game and the glass. Plus any offense BYU gets from the bigs in this game is just gravy. With that said, is there enough confidence in the BYU bigs that they can keep White, Thomas, and Leonard under wraps? I'd say in Cougar Nation there is not right now. However, they do have the crowd, the altitude, and Jimmer on their side. If Jimmer can get one or two of these guys in foul trouble with dribble penetration, it may be enough to swing the tide in the Cougars' favor. If not, it's a toss-up. One cannot underestimate the crowd factor though, particularly for players like Abouo and Davies. They are much better players at home than on the road.
SF Kawhi Leonard; Sophomore; 6'7" 225; 15.7 points/game, 10.3 rebounds/game
PF Tim Shelton; Junior; 6'7" 245; 2.1 points/game, 1.9 rebounds/game
PF Malcolm Thomas; Senior; 6'9" 220; 11.9 points/game, 8.1 rebounds/game, 2.1 blocks/game
PF Billy White; Senior; 6'8" 235; 9.7 points/game, 3.4 rebounds/game
C Brian Carlwell; Senior; 6'11" 300; 3.9 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game
BYU Front Line
SF Kyle Collinsworth; Freshman; 6'6" 210; 7.4 points/game, 4.0 rebounds/game
SF Charles Abouo; Junior; 6'5" 215; 5.3 points/game, 4.8 rebounds/game
SF/PF Stephen Rogers; Sophomore; 6'8" 195; 4.1 points/game, 2.3 rebounds/game
PF Logan Magnusson; Senior; 6'6" 210; 2.1 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game
PF Noah Hartsock; Junior; 6'8" 230; 9.8 points/game, 5.8 rebounds/game, 1.6 blocks/game
C Brandon Davies; Sophomore; 6'9" 235; 11.3 points/game, 5.7 rebounds/game
Recent History
Billy White has played the most games of any SDSU Big Man against BYU: he is 2-5 overall and 0-3 in the Marriott Center. He averages 8.3 points/game and 5.3 rebounds/game. At the Marriott Center he averages 9.7 points/game and 5.0 rebounds/game. Last year's game in Provo was not a very good game for the SDSU Big Men. They tallied just 33 points and 18 rebounds (the season average was 39.4 PPG and 24.6 RPG). Kawhi Leonard and Billy White were both sucking wind and pulled themselves out at crucial junctures in the second half. With the nice scheduling break SDSU got from the MWC, getting a bye prior to playing BYU, they should be rested, which will help with altitude adjustment.
Noah Hartsock is the most experienced Cougar Big Man. He is 2-0 at the Marriott Center, but has scored 0 points against SDSU at home. In last season's dominating performance against SDSU in the Marriott Center, 5 current Cougar Big Men contributed. Well, kind of. The returning Cougar Big Men that played are Hartsock, Brandon Davies, Charles Abouo, Logan Magnusson, and James Anderson. They played 55 minutes, scored 10 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, had 1 block and 1 steal, and committed 5 fouls. I realize that the Backcourt is BYU's strength, but they will need more of a contribution from this group than that. Though reproducing only five fouls would be a nice number.
How They Match Up
On paper, SDSU is completely dominant at the 3-5 spots (I only listed those averaging more than 10 minutes/game). Carlwell could exploit Davies with his size. White could exploit Hartsock with his quickness. Leonard can exploit Collinsworth with his power. If James Anderson enters the game, like last year, it is instant points for SDSU as they immediately throw the ball in to whomever he guards for a layup. When Chris Collinsworth had season-ending surgery earlier this month, I looked at BYU's schedule and thought: SDSU is the only game (or two games, but I had marked the game at SDSU as a likely loss prior to the season anyway) that it is going to matter for BYU until probably the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. CSU tried to prove me wrong, but this is the one game where lack of depth upfront could kill BYU.
How SDSU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Play a halfcourt game. Crash the offensive boards hard (and get them). Force the issue in the middle and, as a result, get Davies and Hartsock to get in foul trouble. Take the crowd out of the game by getting a lot of easy baskets from the big guys. Defensively, they just need to contain the BYU bigs, 16 points or less is a good number.
How BYU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Get out and run. The same gameplan as last season: punish the Aztecs for sending too many guys to crash the boards, and too few back on defense. Keep Davies and Hartsock out of foul trouble (mixing up man and zone, playing Abouo and Magnusson BEFORE these two get in trouble). The crowd must stay in the game and have reasons to cheer, not just reasons to boo (foul calls). It is all about the fast break for BYU: neutralize the bigs by making them run up and down the floor.
Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU clearly has the advantage and will get more production from their big guys. However, the BYU Big Men don't need to outproduce the Aztecs to get a "win" in this positional battle. BYU only needs to keep them from dominating the game and the glass. Plus any offense BYU gets from the bigs in this game is just gravy. With that said, is there enough confidence in the BYU bigs that they can keep White, Thomas, and Leonard under wraps? I'd say in Cougar Nation there is not right now. However, they do have the crowd, the altitude, and Jimmer on their side. If Jimmer can get one or two of these guys in foul trouble with dribble penetration, it may be enough to swing the tide in the Cougars' favor. If not, it's a toss-up. One cannot underestimate the crowd factor though, particularly for players like Abouo and Davies. They are much better players at home than on the road.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
BYU-CSU Preview, 1/22/2011
Why This is No "Gimme" for BYU
This is a very dangerous game for BYU. Not because it's a "trap game" or they are looking ahead or for any other reason than that they are playing a quality team, on the road, that is hungry and desperate to prove themselves. Adding on that, there will be a sellout crowd out to support their CSU Rams for the final time at home against the hated BYU Cougars.
A Look at CSU
They have more talent and experience than in years past. They start 3 seniors and 2 sophomores. Their Forwards will be tough to guard with Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin. Last year, Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock were able to shut down Ogide and Franklin with their size in the middle. Can Davies step in and do the same? There is not another body to pick up that assignment if he can't, or if he gets in foul trouble. Guards Dorian Green and Adam Nigon have been through the battles before, and Iowa State transfer Wes Eikmeier has found a nice little nitche on the team as well. Sharpshooter Jesse Carr can come off the bench for some instant offense (though only for short stretches). Ogide, Franklin, and Eikmeier combined for 58 points against UNLV on Wednesday. Those three take high percentage shots and make them at a high percentage. Like BYU, they have lacked consistent bench scoring threats outside of the top 6.
A Look at BYU
BYU has been winning games big of late. But I have noticed that the Cougars have looked a bit more selfish. Jimmer has been forcing shots (in the 16 field goals he made against Utah, I think only 2 came off of passes: the rest were all one-on-one or one-on-two). Davies has taken a few shots outside of the offense. Even Emery has been taking (and, fortunately, making) a lot of contested outside shots. If those shots don't fall today, can the Cougars adjust their game? Dave Rose knows how to prepare his teams, he knows how to adjust, he knows how to win games. So do Jimmer and Jackson and Noah. But if Davies and Hartsock are contained by Ogide and Franklin, can Jimmer and Jackson continue to make contested long range shots all game long? The odds are not in their favor that it will continue, and I think that is why they are in for a dogfight tonight in Fort Collins. Jackson has been nails, hitting a lot of crucial shots this year. Jimmer has obviously been the money. But even MJ and Scottie had games where they were both missing.
BYU has looked like a team on a mission, however, for most of the season. Can they really be denied by a team they have not lost to in ages, and by a team they have beat by 20+ points in 5 of the 7 games Jimmer has played against them (the closest game in the Jimmer era was 14 points).
Prediction
I think CSU will give certainly BYU all they want. If it is decided by more than 7 points it is either Jimmer scoring 40 or Jimmer going 1 for 40. BYU is clearly the better team. CSU is probably the hungrier team, and basketball, more so than any team sport, can be decided by the size of the fight in the dog. I think the Rams score the big upset today and enhance that NCAA Tournament resume, though I would be happy to be wrong and have BYU win. Rams 81, Cougars 77.
This is a very dangerous game for BYU. Not because it's a "trap game" or they are looking ahead or for any other reason than that they are playing a quality team, on the road, that is hungry and desperate to prove themselves. Adding on that, there will be a sellout crowd out to support their CSU Rams for the final time at home against the hated BYU Cougars.
A Look at CSU
They have more talent and experience than in years past. They start 3 seniors and 2 sophomores. Their Forwards will be tough to guard with Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin. Last year, Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock were able to shut down Ogide and Franklin with their size in the middle. Can Davies step in and do the same? There is not another body to pick up that assignment if he can't, or if he gets in foul trouble. Guards Dorian Green and Adam Nigon have been through the battles before, and Iowa State transfer Wes Eikmeier has found a nice little nitche on the team as well. Sharpshooter Jesse Carr can come off the bench for some instant offense (though only for short stretches). Ogide, Franklin, and Eikmeier combined for 58 points against UNLV on Wednesday. Those three take high percentage shots and make them at a high percentage. Like BYU, they have lacked consistent bench scoring threats outside of the top 6.
A Look at BYU
BYU has been winning games big of late. But I have noticed that the Cougars have looked a bit more selfish. Jimmer has been forcing shots (in the 16 field goals he made against Utah, I think only 2 came off of passes: the rest were all one-on-one or one-on-two). Davies has taken a few shots outside of the offense. Even Emery has been taking (and, fortunately, making) a lot of contested outside shots. If those shots don't fall today, can the Cougars adjust their game? Dave Rose knows how to prepare his teams, he knows how to adjust, he knows how to win games. So do Jimmer and Jackson and Noah. But if Davies and Hartsock are contained by Ogide and Franklin, can Jimmer and Jackson continue to make contested long range shots all game long? The odds are not in their favor that it will continue, and I think that is why they are in for a dogfight tonight in Fort Collins. Jackson has been nails, hitting a lot of crucial shots this year. Jimmer has obviously been the money. But even MJ and Scottie had games where they were both missing.
BYU has looked like a team on a mission, however, for most of the season. Can they really be denied by a team they have not lost to in ages, and by a team they have beat by 20+ points in 5 of the 7 games Jimmer has played against them (the closest game in the Jimmer era was 14 points).
Prediction
I think CSU will give certainly BYU all they want. If it is decided by more than 7 points it is either Jimmer scoring 40 or Jimmer going 1 for 40. BYU is clearly the better team. CSU is probably the hungrier team, and basketball, more so than any team sport, can be decided by the size of the fight in the dog. I think the Rams score the big upset today and enhance that NCAA Tournament resume, though I would be happy to be wrong and have BYU win. Rams 81, Cougars 77.
MWC Games Preview 1/22/2011
Wyoming at Air Force
These two teams are fighting to stay out of last place in the MWC. Air Force is improved this season over the last-place finishes of the previous two seasons.. Wyoming seems to have an entire athletic program going the wrong direction, after a few years in the middle of the pack. Air Force is playing well at home, with a 7-2 record (though one loss was against a Division III team...). Wyoming hasn't won a road game yet this season. I wouldn't (and won't) waste my time watching this game: a boring team hosting a bad team. First one to 60 points wins. Air Force gets there first: Falcons 69, Cowboys 59.
New Mexico at UNLV
It is difficult to call this a must-win so early in the conference season, but the loser of this game will be in some trouble. New Mexico would be 1-4 in conference. UNLV would have lost 3 home games before the conference season was half over. This is a battle of two teams that need to re-establish themselves as relevant in the MWC. The loser is out of that discussion, and the winner remains, though still very much on the fringe. I think UNLV is on the brink of the disaster, if you ask me. The last time that happened (after BYU) they came out the next game and dominated TCU. I recognize that New Mexico is no TCU, but they are coming off of back-to-back losses and losses in three out of four games. It seems that this season the better Dairese Gary plays, the worse New Mexico plays. If he scores 20 points, the Lobos might be in trouble...
UNLV PG Tre'Von Willis will be a game-time decision. But his presence on the court hasn't exactly helped anyway. After Jimmer dropped 39 at UNLV, Willis blew up in the locker room at his teammates. He responded the next game with a good effort, but then made several crucial bad plays that ultimately cost them the game at SDSU. He hasn't played since. The team needs a leader, if Willis wants to be it, he needs to play in this game and he needs to play well. Last year he played well against New Mexico with 20 points in one game and 10 assists in the other. They might need both today.
I think having fans boo the Rebels at home against CSU will either wake them up and send them deeper into a spiral that can only end in the NIT. It will be pretty clear in the first 10 minutes of the game which one it is. This one could go either way. One of these teams may have one good run left in them. I'm going with New Mexico in the road upset, stick a fork in UNLV: Lobos 75, Rebels 65.
Utah at TCU
I went back and watched the BYU-Utah again this week. Utah did a lot of things very well, in spurts. They played a lot better than people gave them credit for. They dominated the boards the entire game and controlled the game for much of it as well, especially early on. Since that game, they have gone on the road and beaten Wyoming by 17, while taking New Mexico down at home this week by double digits as well. TCU has beaten some quality opponents at home this season, however, with wins against Houston and USC at home. They battled BYU on the road and managed to hold Jimmer to 21 points. Ronnie Moss is scoring at a very high rate the past month. He just hasn't had much consistent help. Utah fans probably feel the same way with Clyburn. The difference is: Josh Watkins has stepped it up the past few games. If he can contribute 15 to the Utes' cause today, they will do well. I think this will be another close game, like all of the games today, really could go either way. I'll take Utah to extend their winning streak to 3: Utes 71, Frogs 69.
These two teams are fighting to stay out of last place in the MWC. Air Force is improved this season over the last-place finishes of the previous two seasons.. Wyoming seems to have an entire athletic program going the wrong direction, after a few years in the middle of the pack. Air Force is playing well at home, with a 7-2 record (though one loss was against a Division III team...). Wyoming hasn't won a road game yet this season. I wouldn't (and won't) waste my time watching this game: a boring team hosting a bad team. First one to 60 points wins. Air Force gets there first: Falcons 69, Cowboys 59.
New Mexico at UNLV
It is difficult to call this a must-win so early in the conference season, but the loser of this game will be in some trouble. New Mexico would be 1-4 in conference. UNLV would have lost 3 home games before the conference season was half over. This is a battle of two teams that need to re-establish themselves as relevant in the MWC. The loser is out of that discussion, and the winner remains, though still very much on the fringe. I think UNLV is on the brink of the disaster, if you ask me. The last time that happened (after BYU) they came out the next game and dominated TCU. I recognize that New Mexico is no TCU, but they are coming off of back-to-back losses and losses in three out of four games. It seems that this season the better Dairese Gary plays, the worse New Mexico plays. If he scores 20 points, the Lobos might be in trouble...
UNLV PG Tre'Von Willis will be a game-time decision. But his presence on the court hasn't exactly helped anyway. After Jimmer dropped 39 at UNLV, Willis blew up in the locker room at his teammates. He responded the next game with a good effort, but then made several crucial bad plays that ultimately cost them the game at SDSU. He hasn't played since. The team needs a leader, if Willis wants to be it, he needs to play in this game and he needs to play well. Last year he played well against New Mexico with 20 points in one game and 10 assists in the other. They might need both today.
I think having fans boo the Rebels at home against CSU will either wake them up and send them deeper into a spiral that can only end in the NIT. It will be pretty clear in the first 10 minutes of the game which one it is. This one could go either way. One of these teams may have one good run left in them. I'm going with New Mexico in the road upset, stick a fork in UNLV: Lobos 75, Rebels 65.
Utah at TCU
I went back and watched the BYU-Utah again this week. Utah did a lot of things very well, in spurts. They played a lot better than people gave them credit for. They dominated the boards the entire game and controlled the game for much of it as well, especially early on. Since that game, they have gone on the road and beaten Wyoming by 17, while taking New Mexico down at home this week by double digits as well. TCU has beaten some quality opponents at home this season, however, with wins against Houston and USC at home. They battled BYU on the road and managed to hold Jimmer to 21 points. Ronnie Moss is scoring at a very high rate the past month. He just hasn't had much consistent help. Utah fans probably feel the same way with Clyburn. The difference is: Josh Watkins has stepped it up the past few games. If he can contribute 15 to the Utes' cause today, they will do well. I think this will be another close game, like all of the games today, really could go either way. I'll take Utah to extend their winning streak to 3: Utes 71, Frogs 69.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
State of MWC Hoops, 1/20/2011
The Elimination Game
And then there were three. With losses last night, New Mexico and UNLV have been eliminated from contention for the MWC crown. With a win last night at UNLV, Colorado State has planted itself firmly in the discussion. The MWC Champ will be, at worst, 13-3 and could be as good as 16-0 or 15-1 (though my money is still on 14-2). Teams with 3 losses need to run off 11 straight wins to have any chance. As I said, then there were three: SDSU, BYU, and CSU. Here's a rundown of the three movers from last night (2 down and 1 up)
UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Down
UNLV has lost two conference home games already (without having played SDSU and New Mexico at home). They have two games left against New Mexico, they have to travel to BYU and CSU (who both beat the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack), and have to play SDSU at home. Playing a bunch of thugs has finally caught up with the Rebels, as this particular group has had chemistry issues from the start. What was once a sure thing for them (an NCAA Tournament bid) may now be in jeopardy, particularly if they lose ANOTHER game on their home floor in the MWC Tournament. The losses are starting to pile up now (5) for a team in a league that has about an 8- or 9-loss maximum for NCAA Tournament consideration. They need to beat SDSU at home, and could probably use a road win against New Mexico and/or BYU.
New Mexico Lobos: Down and Out
New Mexico has now lost two road games to "bottom half" teams, first at Wyoming and now at Utah (a place where SDSU and BYU have victories). They also have lost a conference home game to SDSU. With 6 losses already and zero non-conference wins of note, their MWC Title and NCAA Tournament hopes are completely sunk at this point. They still have to play 4 regular season games against BYU and UNLV, plus road games at SDSU and CSU: they need to go 5-1 in those games, which they will not do. And who is to say they couldn't lose at TCU or Air Force too. I think, barring an MWC Tourney Championship, they are now officially NIT-bound (or worse).
Colorado State Rams: On the Up and Up with BYU Coming Up
CSU has matched BYU now with a win at UNLV. They did lose at the Pit in New Mexico, but BYU still has that opportunity yet. They have to play both BYU and SDSU twice (BYU at home this Saturday), get UNLV and New Mexico at home still, and have shown they can win at home against the rest of the bunch. I still have some concerns about road games, as their best non-home win prior to UNLV was against Southern Miss, who is, at best, an NIT team, and probably not even that good. As with UNLV, the number of losses is probably too great (5 already with 4 regular season games against top 10 teams remaining) for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. They now have a road win to hang their hat on and can probably count on an NIT appearance, barring a major collapse to close out the season.
And then there were three. With losses last night, New Mexico and UNLV have been eliminated from contention for the MWC crown. With a win last night at UNLV, Colorado State has planted itself firmly in the discussion. The MWC Champ will be, at worst, 13-3 and could be as good as 16-0 or 15-1 (though my money is still on 14-2). Teams with 3 losses need to run off 11 straight wins to have any chance. As I said, then there were three: SDSU, BYU, and CSU. Here's a rundown of the three movers from last night (2 down and 1 up)
UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Down
UNLV has lost two conference home games already (without having played SDSU and New Mexico at home). They have two games left against New Mexico, they have to travel to BYU and CSU (who both beat the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack), and have to play SDSU at home. Playing a bunch of thugs has finally caught up with the Rebels, as this particular group has had chemistry issues from the start. What was once a sure thing for them (an NCAA Tournament bid) may now be in jeopardy, particularly if they lose ANOTHER game on their home floor in the MWC Tournament. The losses are starting to pile up now (5) for a team in a league that has about an 8- or 9-loss maximum for NCAA Tournament consideration. They need to beat SDSU at home, and could probably use a road win against New Mexico and/or BYU.
New Mexico Lobos: Down and Out
New Mexico has now lost two road games to "bottom half" teams, first at Wyoming and now at Utah (a place where SDSU and BYU have victories). They also have lost a conference home game to SDSU. With 6 losses already and zero non-conference wins of note, their MWC Title and NCAA Tournament hopes are completely sunk at this point. They still have to play 4 regular season games against BYU and UNLV, plus road games at SDSU and CSU: they need to go 5-1 in those games, which they will not do. And who is to say they couldn't lose at TCU or Air Force too. I think, barring an MWC Tourney Championship, they are now officially NIT-bound (or worse).
Colorado State Rams: On the Up and Up with BYU Coming Up
CSU has matched BYU now with a win at UNLV. They did lose at the Pit in New Mexico, but BYU still has that opportunity yet. They have to play both BYU and SDSU twice (BYU at home this Saturday), get UNLV and New Mexico at home still, and have shown they can win at home against the rest of the bunch. I still have some concerns about road games, as their best non-home win prior to UNLV was against Southern Miss, who is, at best, an NIT team, and probably not even that good. As with UNLV, the number of losses is probably too great (5 already with 4 regular season games against top 10 teams remaining) for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. They now have a road win to hang their hat on and can probably count on an NIT appearance, barring a major collapse to close out the season.
Monday, January 17, 2011
TCU-BYU Preview, 1/18/2011
A Look at TCU
TCU is not necessarily a young team, but a lot of their players are making their first or second run through the MWC. They have several JC and other D-I transfers. As such, this will be their first game in a packed Marriott Center (at least I figure it will be packed with it being labeled "Jackson Emery Night" in Provo: it will certainly exceed the less-than-12k that attended last year's game in Provo). 3 of the 4 Horned Frogs that played at BYU before have scored in double figures there: G Greg Hill, G Ronnie Moss, and F Garlon Green. Though Nikola Cerina scored in double figures in the other two games against BYU last season: in Fort Worth and in Vegas in the MWC tourney.
To say that TCU always plays BYU tough is a bit inaccurate, since BYU usually wins by double-digits, but they do always play BYU tougher than they should. They have a lot of different scoring options and some of those options present what tend to be difficult matchups for BYU: they are not tremendously skilled basketball players but they are very athletic and play "higher" than BYU typically does. BYU is a below-the-rim type of team and TCU usually has some leapers, though this team really lacks that kind of guy in the post. TCU never really plays a true center, which could give Davies some matchup problems defensively. Their leading scorers are: G Ronnie Moss, F Garlon Green, G Sammy Yeager, and 5'9" G Hank Thorns, who all average over 9 points/game.
Though the player I believe that BYU fans will want to watch out for is SF J.R. Cadot, who has been wildly inconsistent but very good when he is on. Those are the types of guys who tend to get going against BYU and look like All-Americans: BYU fans know what I am talking about! He has had 7 games of 8 or more rebounds and had 5 games in double figures scoring. In conference play he has struggled, scoring only 11 points in 4 games, but he will be guarded by true freshman Kyle Collinsworth most of the night. If Collinsworth matches up well with him, I think BYU controls the game. Ronnie Moss would be the sexy pick for BYU to stop, but I think Moss will be easier to slow down than Cadot, given BYU's strengths. F Nikola Cerina is another one to watch. He probably wants to get a little revenge against BYU after some chippy moments in all three games against BYU/Chris Miles, and then fouling out in the MWC Tournament game after several "hard" fouls.
A Look at BYU
Besides Jimmer, who is a mismatch for most everyone in the MWC, Brandon Davies will be the one Cougar involved in a "mismatch" most of the evening. He should have the speed to move around Cerina and Nikola Gacesa and the size to take on Amric Fields, if he can stay out of foul trouble, which may be tough: Cerina and Gacesa are bigger than him and Fields is quicker than him...the mismatch works both ways.
With this being Jackson Emery night, will he perform well? How does he handle that pressure? Jimmer played well in the "Jimmer game" and we shall see if Jackson is equally nails in "his" game. We may see him come out a little overanxious early on, but my guess is he'll settle down eventually and play another solid game. With some of his 3-point makes at UNLV, it appears he has finally turned the proverbial corner.
I am still waiting for one guy to come off the bench and provide a consistent scoring threat. I keep waiting for Abouo or Rogers to be that guy and they have both looked out of sorts at times. It is amazing to see the Junior Wing Charles Abouo, who plays for his Ivory Coast National Team, look completely lost out there at times. He has played in 87 collegiate basketball games, but since the Vermont game, he seems totally out of sync with what the rest of the team is doing. Stephen Rogers transition hasn't been as surprising. He really doesn't have a position for BYU: not big enough to be a '4' and not quick enough to be a '3' for BYU's style. But he seemed to be coming along after solid games against Hawaii and Vermont, plus the solid outings against UTEP, Buffalo, Fresno-Pacific, and Air Force. Defensively, he's been pretty absent the entire season, having a few good rebounding games against the worst of BYU's opponents.
Prediction
I think the game, as usually typical with TCU, will be closer than it should be. But it probably should be a 20 or 25-point win. BYU will be looking to push tempo, as it seems pretty evident TCU could not match BYU score for score. They have been too inconsistent, especially in conference play, to have a guy go for 25 points or have 4 or 5 guys score in double figures. They would need one, or both, of those to happen to match BYU's scoring. Will BYU be rusty or rested, having not played in a week? With BYU, typically they come out lights out before the rust starts to show around minute 5-6, and then they pick it up to close out the first half. I don't see any reason why that shouldn't hold true Tuesday Night in the Marriott Center as well. It's probably 10-12 points by halftime, and 12-16 points for most of the second half. TCU finishes with a late run to cut it to down to 10 or 12, maybe even 8. BYU 83, TCU 72.
TCU is not necessarily a young team, but a lot of their players are making their first or second run through the MWC. They have several JC and other D-I transfers. As such, this will be their first game in a packed Marriott Center (at least I figure it will be packed with it being labeled "Jackson Emery Night" in Provo: it will certainly exceed the less-than-12k that attended last year's game in Provo). 3 of the 4 Horned Frogs that played at BYU before have scored in double figures there: G Greg Hill, G Ronnie Moss, and F Garlon Green. Though Nikola Cerina scored in double figures in the other two games against BYU last season: in Fort Worth and in Vegas in the MWC tourney.
To say that TCU always plays BYU tough is a bit inaccurate, since BYU usually wins by double-digits, but they do always play BYU tougher than they should. They have a lot of different scoring options and some of those options present what tend to be difficult matchups for BYU: they are not tremendously skilled basketball players but they are very athletic and play "higher" than BYU typically does. BYU is a below-the-rim type of team and TCU usually has some leapers, though this team really lacks that kind of guy in the post. TCU never really plays a true center, which could give Davies some matchup problems defensively. Their leading scorers are: G Ronnie Moss, F Garlon Green, G Sammy Yeager, and 5'9" G Hank Thorns, who all average over 9 points/game.
Though the player I believe that BYU fans will want to watch out for is SF J.R. Cadot, who has been wildly inconsistent but very good when he is on. Those are the types of guys who tend to get going against BYU and look like All-Americans: BYU fans know what I am talking about! He has had 7 games of 8 or more rebounds and had 5 games in double figures scoring. In conference play he has struggled, scoring only 11 points in 4 games, but he will be guarded by true freshman Kyle Collinsworth most of the night. If Collinsworth matches up well with him, I think BYU controls the game. Ronnie Moss would be the sexy pick for BYU to stop, but I think Moss will be easier to slow down than Cadot, given BYU's strengths. F Nikola Cerina is another one to watch. He probably wants to get a little revenge against BYU after some chippy moments in all three games against BYU/Chris Miles, and then fouling out in the MWC Tournament game after several "hard" fouls.
A Look at BYU
Besides Jimmer, who is a mismatch for most everyone in the MWC, Brandon Davies will be the one Cougar involved in a "mismatch" most of the evening. He should have the speed to move around Cerina and Nikola Gacesa and the size to take on Amric Fields, if he can stay out of foul trouble, which may be tough: Cerina and Gacesa are bigger than him and Fields is quicker than him...the mismatch works both ways.
With this being Jackson Emery night, will he perform well? How does he handle that pressure? Jimmer played well in the "Jimmer game" and we shall see if Jackson is equally nails in "his" game. We may see him come out a little overanxious early on, but my guess is he'll settle down eventually and play another solid game. With some of his 3-point makes at UNLV, it appears he has finally turned the proverbial corner.
I am still waiting for one guy to come off the bench and provide a consistent scoring threat. I keep waiting for Abouo or Rogers to be that guy and they have both looked out of sorts at times. It is amazing to see the Junior Wing Charles Abouo, who plays for his Ivory Coast National Team, look completely lost out there at times. He has played in 87 collegiate basketball games, but since the Vermont game, he seems totally out of sync with what the rest of the team is doing. Stephen Rogers transition hasn't been as surprising. He really doesn't have a position for BYU: not big enough to be a '4' and not quick enough to be a '3' for BYU's style. But he seemed to be coming along after solid games against Hawaii and Vermont, plus the solid outings against UTEP, Buffalo, Fresno-Pacific, and Air Force. Defensively, he's been pretty absent the entire season, having a few good rebounding games against the worst of BYU's opponents.
Prediction
I think the game, as usually typical with TCU, will be closer than it should be. But it probably should be a 20 or 25-point win. BYU will be looking to push tempo, as it seems pretty evident TCU could not match BYU score for score. They have been too inconsistent, especially in conference play, to have a guy go for 25 points or have 4 or 5 guys score in double figures. They would need one, or both, of those to happen to match BYU's scoring. Will BYU be rusty or rested, having not played in a week? With BYU, typically they come out lights out before the rust starts to show around minute 5-6, and then they pick it up to close out the first half. I don't see any reason why that shouldn't hold true Tuesday Night in the Marriott Center as well. It's probably 10-12 points by halftime, and 12-16 points for most of the second half. TCU finishes with a late run to cut it to down to 10 or 12, maybe even 8. BYU 83, TCU 72.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
BYU and the BCS in 2011, Part II
As mentioned in my previous post (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html), an 11-1 or 12-0 BYU team would have to fight for one of 3 at-large bids to a BCS game. A big obstacle to obtaining an at-large bid is that the highest-ranked non-BCS conference champion, should it finish in the top 12 (or top 16 if the ACC and Big East Champ is ranked lower), gets an automatic bid and reduces the at-large pool from 3 to 2. I have assumed that the SEC will place two teams in the BCS, as it has down every year that I can recall.
The MWC Champion is definitely a contender to take one of the three coveted spots. The MWC Champion has played in a BCS game for 3 consecutive years. The 2 years prior to that, BYU was the MWC Champion and was not in consideration for the BCS because the WAC Champion was ranked higher both years (Hawaii and Boise State). Conference USA could potentially pose a threat in 2011, with the emergence of UCF and the return of QB Case Keenum at Houston for a rare 6th year.
The MWC Champion Contenders
Boise State
They have always been a quality team, but this year they will join the MWC and face a stiffer schedule than in years past. They lost a ton from this year's 12-1, top 10 finisher. On offense, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and Jeremy Avery are the big names that they lost. They return a good number of major contributors, however: QB Kellen Moore, RBs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper (who had a season-ending injury in game 3), WR Tyler Shoemaker, and TE Kyle Efaw. They also return 4 of 5 OL. They lost their Offensive Coordinator to the University of Texas.
Defensively, they lost all the big names (except LB Byron Hout, who is more of a big name for the punch he took to start 2009, not for his actual play on the field), but still have good players returning. The losses include DE Ryan Winterswyk, LB Derrell Acrey, and DBs Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. The big names they bring back are NT Billy Winn, LB JC Percy, and DB George Iloka.
They lose K/P Kyle Brotzman. They lose KR Titus Young. PR Chris Potter returns.
Their schedule is substantially more difficult in 2011: home games against Georgia, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU and road games at Fresno State and TCU. However, at 11-1, they would qualify for an automatic bid to the BCS, assuming they were the MWC Champion. And 11-1 is not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, even with a tougher schedule and the personnel losses mentioned above. They are moving to a new conference, which can be an advantage: no one is familiar with what they do.
TCU
The names that carried TCU the past 3 seasons are gone. QB Andy Dalton, WRs Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, and Jimmy Young, TE Evan Frosch, and 4 of the top 6 OL graduate. They return all of the RBs, WR Josh Boyce, and FB Luke Shivers. Casey Paschall appears to be the heir apparent at QB for the Horned Frogs. He is 6-9 in his career with a TD. He also has 15 rushing attempts for 94 yards and 2 TDs. His running ability will be as important as his passing ability: Dalton was the 3rd or 4th best rusher on TCU each of the past 3 seasons.
Defensively, they also lose a lot from the Rose Bowl winning team. They lose 3 of the top 6 on the DL and 4 of the top 6 in the Secondary. But they return both of their LBs.
Special teams loses PR/KR Kerley, but brings back both their K and P.
The schedule is easier for them than the 2010 one was, at least as it now stands. They still have two games left to fill on the schedule. They lose BYU and Utah in conference play, but gain Boise State. The non-conference schedule currently includes games at Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and SMU. They have to travel to Air Force and San Diego State. As with Boise State, at 11-1 with an MWC Championship, they are a shoe-in for the automatic BCS bid. I don't believe they can go 11-1 in 2011 though.
Air Force/SDSU
Both of these programs seem to be building momentum. Both return most of their key players from teams that played well all season and finished with bowl wins against quality competition. SDSU pushed TCU to the wire in Fort Worth, but loses their Head Coach. Air Force always pushes TCU at home, where they get them in 2011. Both teams would likely have to be 12-0 to finish in the top 12/16. This is not likely. They have to play each other, Boise State, and TCU in conference, plus have difficult non-conference games too. Air Force plays at Navy and at Notre Dame. SDSU plays at Michigan and against an improving Washington State and Fresno State at home. However, I think either of these teams could win the MWC, so they deserve to be mentioned here.
Conference USA Champion
Conventional wisdom says the C-USA Champ has no chance to get the automatic BCS bid. However, UCF, Tulsa, and Houston have all pushed the envelope the past few seasons. UCF plays at BYU. If they win that game, BYU is out of the picture. If they lose that game, UCF is out of the picture. Tulsa is replacing its head coach, two seasons after replacing its O-Coordinator who just led Auburn to a National Championship. Houston gets Case Keenum back, but is he enough to help a 5-7 team become a 13-0 team? That would have to be the standard for C-USA: 13-0. The blessing and curse of their conference championship game: it is one more game to survive but one more game that can build your ranking while the MWC Champion is idle. I don't see C-USA being a big threat to jump into the BCS in 2011.
As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about the MWC and C-USA champions meeting for an automatic BCS bid. That is a completely ridiculous notion, and one that the BCS would NEVER, EVER agree to. If the MWC or C-USA champion is deserving, they will get an automatic bid anyway, but that is not every season, and the BCS will never offer that every season. Besides, what has C-USA done to prove that they deserve to be in the discussion anyway?
The Non-AQs in Summation
Boise State going 11-1 and winning the MWC is BYU's biggest threat from the non-AQs for a spot in the BCS. TCU will not likely go 11-1 or 12-0. SDSU or Air Force will not go 12-0. The future C-USA champion will be out of the discussion by October, since all of the contenders will have at least one loss by then, as they always do in C-USA. Of course, BYU could be well out of the discussion by then as well.
What to Expect in Part III
A look at the BCS conferences capable of sending a second team to the BCS and how BYU would stack up against the potential teams from those conferences.
The MWC Champion is definitely a contender to take one of the three coveted spots. The MWC Champion has played in a BCS game for 3 consecutive years. The 2 years prior to that, BYU was the MWC Champion and was not in consideration for the BCS because the WAC Champion was ranked higher both years (Hawaii and Boise State). Conference USA could potentially pose a threat in 2011, with the emergence of UCF and the return of QB Case Keenum at Houston for a rare 6th year.
The MWC Champion Contenders
Boise State
They have always been a quality team, but this year they will join the MWC and face a stiffer schedule than in years past. They lost a ton from this year's 12-1, top 10 finisher. On offense, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and Jeremy Avery are the big names that they lost. They return a good number of major contributors, however: QB Kellen Moore, RBs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper (who had a season-ending injury in game 3), WR Tyler Shoemaker, and TE Kyle Efaw. They also return 4 of 5 OL. They lost their Offensive Coordinator to the University of Texas.
Defensively, they lost all the big names (except LB Byron Hout, who is more of a big name for the punch he took to start 2009, not for his actual play on the field), but still have good players returning. The losses include DE Ryan Winterswyk, LB Derrell Acrey, and DBs Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. The big names they bring back are NT Billy Winn, LB JC Percy, and DB George Iloka.
They lose K/P Kyle Brotzman. They lose KR Titus Young. PR Chris Potter returns.
Their schedule is substantially more difficult in 2011: home games against Georgia, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU and road games at Fresno State and TCU. However, at 11-1, they would qualify for an automatic bid to the BCS, assuming they were the MWC Champion. And 11-1 is not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, even with a tougher schedule and the personnel losses mentioned above. They are moving to a new conference, which can be an advantage: no one is familiar with what they do.
TCU
The names that carried TCU the past 3 seasons are gone. QB Andy Dalton, WRs Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, and Jimmy Young, TE Evan Frosch, and 4 of the top 6 OL graduate. They return all of the RBs, WR Josh Boyce, and FB Luke Shivers. Casey Paschall appears to be the heir apparent at QB for the Horned Frogs. He is 6-9 in his career with a TD. He also has 15 rushing attempts for 94 yards and 2 TDs. His running ability will be as important as his passing ability: Dalton was the 3rd or 4th best rusher on TCU each of the past 3 seasons.
Defensively, they also lose a lot from the Rose Bowl winning team. They lose 3 of the top 6 on the DL and 4 of the top 6 in the Secondary. But they return both of their LBs.
Special teams loses PR/KR Kerley, but brings back both their K and P.
The schedule is easier for them than the 2010 one was, at least as it now stands. They still have two games left to fill on the schedule. They lose BYU and Utah in conference play, but gain Boise State. The non-conference schedule currently includes games at Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and SMU. They have to travel to Air Force and San Diego State. As with Boise State, at 11-1 with an MWC Championship, they are a shoe-in for the automatic BCS bid. I don't believe they can go 11-1 in 2011 though.
Air Force/SDSU
Both of these programs seem to be building momentum. Both return most of their key players from teams that played well all season and finished with bowl wins against quality competition. SDSU pushed TCU to the wire in Fort Worth, but loses their Head Coach. Air Force always pushes TCU at home, where they get them in 2011. Both teams would likely have to be 12-0 to finish in the top 12/16. This is not likely. They have to play each other, Boise State, and TCU in conference, plus have difficult non-conference games too. Air Force plays at Navy and at Notre Dame. SDSU plays at Michigan and against an improving Washington State and Fresno State at home. However, I think either of these teams could win the MWC, so they deserve to be mentioned here.
Conference USA Champion
Conventional wisdom says the C-USA Champ has no chance to get the automatic BCS bid. However, UCF, Tulsa, and Houston have all pushed the envelope the past few seasons. UCF plays at BYU. If they win that game, BYU is out of the picture. If they lose that game, UCF is out of the picture. Tulsa is replacing its head coach, two seasons after replacing its O-Coordinator who just led Auburn to a National Championship. Houston gets Case Keenum back, but is he enough to help a 5-7 team become a 13-0 team? That would have to be the standard for C-USA: 13-0. The blessing and curse of their conference championship game: it is one more game to survive but one more game that can build your ranking while the MWC Champion is idle. I don't see C-USA being a big threat to jump into the BCS in 2011.
As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about the MWC and C-USA champions meeting for an automatic BCS bid. That is a completely ridiculous notion, and one that the BCS would NEVER, EVER agree to. If the MWC or C-USA champion is deserving, they will get an automatic bid anyway, but that is not every season, and the BCS will never offer that every season. Besides, what has C-USA done to prove that they deserve to be in the discussion anyway?
The Non-AQs in Summation
Boise State going 11-1 and winning the MWC is BYU's biggest threat from the non-AQs for a spot in the BCS. TCU will not likely go 11-1 or 12-0. SDSU or Air Force will not go 12-0. The future C-USA champion will be out of the discussion by October, since all of the contenders will have at least one loss by then, as they always do in C-USA. Of course, BYU could be well out of the discussion by then as well.
What to Expect in Part III
A look at the BCS conferences capable of sending a second team to the BCS and how BYU would stack up against the potential teams from those conferences.
Friday, January 14, 2011
BYU and the BCS in 2011, Part I
The Curse of Independence
Going independent, BYU has lost the "easy" access to the BCS that they helped to create for non-AQ schools. Currently, the highest rated non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic BCS bid if they are ranked in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they are ranked higher than a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences. BYU, as an independent, has foregone any possibility to be a conference champion and get any kind of automatic entrance to a BCS game. This means they must be selected as an at-large team. Notre Dame has a special deal with the BCS that allows them an "automatic" bid if they finish in the top 8 and have at least 9 wins. BYU does not have, nor do they deserve, any such special treatment. I am not sure that Notre Dame deserves their special treatment anymore, but they are still Notre Dame: if they play in a BCS game, 50 million (or more) Catholics worldwide will tune in. As I have stated since the beginning of their Road to Independence, BYU is no Notre Dame. On the field, maybe. Off the field, no way.
A Numbers Game
Getting into the BCS, at-large style, is simply a numbers game. There are 10 bids available. 6 of them are automatically taken by 6 BCS conference champions. A 7th is taken by an SEC team. Guaranteed. This leaves 3 other spots in the BCS. A 12-0, or 11-1 if it is Boise State or TCU, MWC Champion would also obtain the automatic bid described earlier. However, there is no guarantee that a 10-2 Boise State/TCU, or an 11-1 Air Force/SDSU would be in the top 16. If the MWC Champion is outside the top 16, BYU would be competing for 3 spots with a second team from the Pac 12, Big XII, or Big Ten. If the MWC Champion is in the top 16, they would be competing for 2 spots with teams from those conferences.
How Does BYU Get There
Going 12-0 would be a huge start. Going 11-1 would leave the door open, if the loss was on the road to an undefeated BCS conference champion (Texas is the best/only possibility on BYU's schedule). I believe a 12-0 BYU team would be difficult, but not impossible, to pass over by the BCS. An 11-1 team would also be worthy of consideration. Based on how BYU finished the year, what players they bring back, and what the coaching staff looks like for next season, there is not a game on the schedule that BYU couldn't win. Prior to the 2010 season, there were two games they could not win: at Florida State and at TCU. As it turned out, there were others too, but looking ahead to the 2011 season there are no unwinnable games. In the coming weeks, I will walk through the 2011 schedule game by game, but for now, it is enough to say: BYU could win any of them. There are also 6 losable games on the schedule too.
What to Expect in Part II
I will evaluate the competition for those 2 or 3 remaining BCS bids, both from non-AQ challengers and from the Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten (I see no reason to assume that the ACC or Big East will provide a SECOND challenger for a BCS bid in 2011, given how far away they were from that in 2010. The Big East didn't even have ONE worthy team in the conference this season).
Going independent, BYU has lost the "easy" access to the BCS that they helped to create for non-AQ schools. Currently, the highest rated non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic BCS bid if they are ranked in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they are ranked higher than a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences. BYU, as an independent, has foregone any possibility to be a conference champion and get any kind of automatic entrance to a BCS game. This means they must be selected as an at-large team. Notre Dame has a special deal with the BCS that allows them an "automatic" bid if they finish in the top 8 and have at least 9 wins. BYU does not have, nor do they deserve, any such special treatment. I am not sure that Notre Dame deserves their special treatment anymore, but they are still Notre Dame: if they play in a BCS game, 50 million (or more) Catholics worldwide will tune in. As I have stated since the beginning of their Road to Independence, BYU is no Notre Dame. On the field, maybe. Off the field, no way.
A Numbers Game
Getting into the BCS, at-large style, is simply a numbers game. There are 10 bids available. 6 of them are automatically taken by 6 BCS conference champions. A 7th is taken by an SEC team. Guaranteed. This leaves 3 other spots in the BCS. A 12-0, or 11-1 if it is Boise State or TCU, MWC Champion would also obtain the automatic bid described earlier. However, there is no guarantee that a 10-2 Boise State/TCU, or an 11-1 Air Force/SDSU would be in the top 16. If the MWC Champion is outside the top 16, BYU would be competing for 3 spots with a second team from the Pac 12, Big XII, or Big Ten. If the MWC Champion is in the top 16, they would be competing for 2 spots with teams from those conferences.
How Does BYU Get There
Going 12-0 would be a huge start. Going 11-1 would leave the door open, if the loss was on the road to an undefeated BCS conference champion (Texas is the best/only possibility on BYU's schedule). I believe a 12-0 BYU team would be difficult, but not impossible, to pass over by the BCS. An 11-1 team would also be worthy of consideration. Based on how BYU finished the year, what players they bring back, and what the coaching staff looks like for next season, there is not a game on the schedule that BYU couldn't win. Prior to the 2010 season, there were two games they could not win: at Florida State and at TCU. As it turned out, there were others too, but looking ahead to the 2011 season there are no unwinnable games. In the coming weeks, I will walk through the 2011 schedule game by game, but for now, it is enough to say: BYU could win any of them. There are also 6 losable games on the schedule too.
What to Expect in Part II
I will evaluate the competition for those 2 or 3 remaining BCS bids, both from non-AQ challengers and from the Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten (I see no reason to assume that the ACC or Big East will provide a SECOND challenger for a BCS bid in 2011, given how far away they were from that in 2010. The Big East didn't even have ONE worthy team in the conference this season).
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Thursday Thoughts, 1/13/2011
A lot has happened recently in the world of MWC football since I last wrote. (Former as of yesterday) SDSU Coach Brady Hoke was announced as Michigan's Head Coach. (Former as of yesterday) SDSU Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long took over as the Head Coach at SDSU. Utah DT Sealver Siligi declared for the NFL Draft. Utah landed RB recruit Harvey Langi from Bingham over USC. It is rumored that Norm Chow is to be the next Utah Offensive Coordinator. BYU named Brandon Doman their Offensive Coordinator after Robert Anae "resigned."
And all of that outside of the obvious basketball news of Jimmer's 47 points and 6 assists in the demolition of rival Utah on Tuesday night. In conjunction with that, BYU scored 104 points in a true road game. Against rival Utah. Did I mention this was at the Huntsman Center? If you haven't seen highlights from the game, find some online! People joke about some of the deep threes that Jimmer takes that are "from half court." Well, he actually hit one from half court...but in spite of Jimmer's 47, four other Cougars got into double figures. That is balance, with a Super Star. Much like the 1996 Chicago Bulls...
Hoke at Michigan
Good hire by Michigan. Good move by Hoke. He does not have a lot of pressure. People will allow him to field "competitive" teams for two years before they really expect winning. He will make a lot of money while he tries to build a winner again at Michigan. Michigan lost 6 games this season, all by double-digits. Hoke will keep Michigan closer, and that gives the Wolverines a chance to win some ball games. They have a forgiving schedule next season, with only 3 opponents that finished in this season's top 25 (and two of those are in games 11 and 12). They host SDSU in game 4, that should be interesting...I think he'll win 7 or 8 games next season and go to a better bowl where he has a chance.
Long at SDSU
Well, Long has already been a coach in the MWC, where he had as much success as he thought he could. He resigned at New Mexico, essentially stating he had taken New Mexico to their highest possible point and could help them no more. Now he gets a chance to find the ceiling at SDSU. He stated today that SDSU should be able to win the MWC and play in, and win, BCS games. I do not know that SDSU can reach that level. They may be able to "Hawaii it" and get in when Boise State has a down year and get blown out in the Sugar Bowl by an SEC team...but SDSU is better than it has been. It has better players. It has good coaches (depending on what Hoke leaves and what Long brings in). They are still in my top 2 to win the MWC along with the winner of the Boise State-TCU game. Hoke put in the framework for a champion, but it will be up to Long to keep it going next season.
Utah Loses One, Recruits Another
The announcement by 6'1", 220 pound RB Harvey Langi from Bingham High, that he would attend the University of Utah wrapped up a solid recruiting class from the state of Utah. Most boards have Harvey as one of the top 2 prospects in the state. Utah ended up with 6 of the top 12 according to every reputable site I have checked out. However, as BYU can attest from this season, teams cannot be successful at a high level if they need to rely heavily on freshmen. With the loss of so many guys to graduation, plus now two NFL-caliber players leaving the defense, they may need these guys to step up. Langi may be a great back. But it is a rare freshman that can go from high school to the Pac 10/12. 150 carries in a Utah high school is a lot different than 200 carries against BCS conference competition. But, as my nephew who attended Bingham with Harvey says, he is a full-grown man.
The loss of Siligi is big for Utah's defensive front. They still have capable players on the defensive line, but when a non-BCS team loses an NFL-type player, it hurts their depth. Their talent isn't the issue joining the Pac 12, but their depth is, and it just took a hit, where it was supposed to be strong. His loss hurts the run defense too. He was an experienced and gifted interior linemen who was big enough to demand, and strong enough to occasionally beat, double teams.
Chow in the State of Utah Again?
The rumors are out there that Norm Chow will be the Utes next Offensive Coordinator. He is a definite step up from every other OC that Kyle Whittingham has had in his tenure. Chow has done well at tailoring his approach to the personnel and style of team that he has. It was successful as he ran a pro-style offense at USC. It was successful with the Titans. It was less than successful at UCLA. But he also didn't have good players...he has been in the Pac 10/12 for years, and knows Pac 12 defenses as well as anybody. He is also a great coach of QBs. Wynn could use some coaching: he didn't improve nearly enough from his freshman to sophomore years.
Doman Running the BYU O Again
Robert Anae has stepped down and taken the same job at Arizona (that means the Utes get an easy intra-division win next season, because Anae cannot score against that Ute D). That left the door open for Brandon Doman to step in and run the BYU offense. Personally, I would always prefer to have a former QB calling plays than a former OL. QBs have a little bit more on-the-job training with interpreting what defenses are trying to do. Anae had no creativity. He did well because he had outstanding players, not because he called outstanding plays.
Doman led a fantastic offense in his time at BYU. Doman will understand better how to utilize the skillset of Riley Nelson throughout the game (having been a mobile QB himself), while playing Heaps as the starting QB. I do not think Anae was capable of starting Heaps while occasionally using Nelson. Hence the evolution of the alternating drives BYU employed for a game and a half. Doman may lack the experience calling plays on the sideline, but he does not lack experience calling plays on the field. If he can transfer that knowledge to Heaps, BYU's offense should be quite prolific the next 3 years with him at the helm. BYU should definitely be better off in the long run for this recent change in the coaching staff.
And all of that outside of the obvious basketball news of Jimmer's 47 points and 6 assists in the demolition of rival Utah on Tuesday night. In conjunction with that, BYU scored 104 points in a true road game. Against rival Utah. Did I mention this was at the Huntsman Center? If you haven't seen highlights from the game, find some online! People joke about some of the deep threes that Jimmer takes that are "from half court." Well, he actually hit one from half court...but in spite of Jimmer's 47, four other Cougars got into double figures. That is balance, with a Super Star. Much like the 1996 Chicago Bulls...
Hoke at Michigan
Good hire by Michigan. Good move by Hoke. He does not have a lot of pressure. People will allow him to field "competitive" teams for two years before they really expect winning. He will make a lot of money while he tries to build a winner again at Michigan. Michigan lost 6 games this season, all by double-digits. Hoke will keep Michigan closer, and that gives the Wolverines a chance to win some ball games. They have a forgiving schedule next season, with only 3 opponents that finished in this season's top 25 (and two of those are in games 11 and 12). They host SDSU in game 4, that should be interesting...I think he'll win 7 or 8 games next season and go to a better bowl where he has a chance.
Long at SDSU
Well, Long has already been a coach in the MWC, where he had as much success as he thought he could. He resigned at New Mexico, essentially stating he had taken New Mexico to their highest possible point and could help them no more. Now he gets a chance to find the ceiling at SDSU. He stated today that SDSU should be able to win the MWC and play in, and win, BCS games. I do not know that SDSU can reach that level. They may be able to "Hawaii it" and get in when Boise State has a down year and get blown out in the Sugar Bowl by an SEC team...but SDSU is better than it has been. It has better players. It has good coaches (depending on what Hoke leaves and what Long brings in). They are still in my top 2 to win the MWC along with the winner of the Boise State-TCU game. Hoke put in the framework for a champion, but it will be up to Long to keep it going next season.
Utah Loses One, Recruits Another
The announcement by 6'1", 220 pound RB Harvey Langi from Bingham High, that he would attend the University of Utah wrapped up a solid recruiting class from the state of Utah. Most boards have Harvey as one of the top 2 prospects in the state. Utah ended up with 6 of the top 12 according to every reputable site I have checked out. However, as BYU can attest from this season, teams cannot be successful at a high level if they need to rely heavily on freshmen. With the loss of so many guys to graduation, plus now two NFL-caliber players leaving the defense, they may need these guys to step up. Langi may be a great back. But it is a rare freshman that can go from high school to the Pac 10/12. 150 carries in a Utah high school is a lot different than 200 carries against BCS conference competition. But, as my nephew who attended Bingham with Harvey says, he is a full-grown man.
The loss of Siligi is big for Utah's defensive front. They still have capable players on the defensive line, but when a non-BCS team loses an NFL-type player, it hurts their depth. Their talent isn't the issue joining the Pac 12, but their depth is, and it just took a hit, where it was supposed to be strong. His loss hurts the run defense too. He was an experienced and gifted interior linemen who was big enough to demand, and strong enough to occasionally beat, double teams.
Chow in the State of Utah Again?
The rumors are out there that Norm Chow will be the Utes next Offensive Coordinator. He is a definite step up from every other OC that Kyle Whittingham has had in his tenure. Chow has done well at tailoring his approach to the personnel and style of team that he has. It was successful as he ran a pro-style offense at USC. It was successful with the Titans. It was less than successful at UCLA. But he also didn't have good players...he has been in the Pac 10/12 for years, and knows Pac 12 defenses as well as anybody. He is also a great coach of QBs. Wynn could use some coaching: he didn't improve nearly enough from his freshman to sophomore years.
Doman Running the BYU O Again
Robert Anae has stepped down and taken the same job at Arizona (that means the Utes get an easy intra-division win next season, because Anae cannot score against that Ute D). That left the door open for Brandon Doman to step in and run the BYU offense. Personally, I would always prefer to have a former QB calling plays than a former OL. QBs have a little bit more on-the-job training with interpreting what defenses are trying to do. Anae had no creativity. He did well because he had outstanding players, not because he called outstanding plays.
Doman led a fantastic offense in his time at BYU. Doman will understand better how to utilize the skillset of Riley Nelson throughout the game (having been a mobile QB himself), while playing Heaps as the starting QB. I do not think Anae was capable of starting Heaps while occasionally using Nelson. Hence the evolution of the alternating drives BYU employed for a game and a half. Doman may lack the experience calling plays on the sideline, but he does not lack experience calling plays on the field. If he can transfer that knowledge to Heaps, BYU's offense should be quite prolific the next 3 years with him at the helm. BYU should definitely be better off in the long run for this recent change in the coaching staff.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
MWC Games 1/12/2011
Wyoming at TCU has already started, since I'm late getting this out. It is no surprise to anyone, except New Mexico fans, that TCU has controlled this game.
CSU at New Mexico
The Colorado State Rams have a chance to announce to the conference that they truly have arrived. They go to the Pit to play a New Mexico team fresh off a loss to a bad Wyoming team that announced to the conference that they really were rebuilding. It would, however, take a perfect storm for CSU to pull off the upset. It should be close, with CSU having had over a week off to rest up and prepare. But in the end, I think Dairese Gary carves up the CSU defense just enough to give the Lobos the victory. New Mexico 77, CSU 70.
UNLV at SDSU
The Rebels are looking to exact revenge for a loss in the MWC Tournament Final last season. I think the loss to BYU woke them up a little bit. SDSU is a better defensive team: they are longer and more physical than this year's Rebels. These two teams actually mirror each other quite well. They both tend to "play up" for the big games. Cox Arena will definitely be rocking tonight. The Rebels need something to happen on the road, after dropping a game at home to BYU. I think they have the type of team to go in there and get it done. We may look back at the end of the season and see the loss to BYU as a turning point in their season and the Rebels played on a mission after that. Or we could look back and say that proved that they are a beatable team...I'm still not buying into SDSU fully, so I'm going with the upset: UNLV 69, SDSU 66. Regardless of who wins, this is a game worth watching, listening to, following online, or whatever method you use to keep track of hoops games.
CSU at New Mexico
The Colorado State Rams have a chance to announce to the conference that they truly have arrived. They go to the Pit to play a New Mexico team fresh off a loss to a bad Wyoming team that announced to the conference that they really were rebuilding. It would, however, take a perfect storm for CSU to pull off the upset. It should be close, with CSU having had over a week off to rest up and prepare. But in the end, I think Dairese Gary carves up the CSU defense just enough to give the Lobos the victory. New Mexico 77, CSU 70.
UNLV at SDSU
The Rebels are looking to exact revenge for a loss in the MWC Tournament Final last season. I think the loss to BYU woke them up a little bit. SDSU is a better defensive team: they are longer and more physical than this year's Rebels. These two teams actually mirror each other quite well. They both tend to "play up" for the big games. Cox Arena will definitely be rocking tonight. The Rebels need something to happen on the road, after dropping a game at home to BYU. I think they have the type of team to go in there and get it done. We may look back at the end of the season and see the loss to BYU as a turning point in their season and the Rebels played on a mission after that. Or we could look back and say that proved that they are a beatable team...I'm still not buying into SDSU fully, so I'm going with the upset: UNLV 69, SDSU 66. Regardless of who wins, this is a game worth watching, listening to, following online, or whatever method you use to keep track of hoops games.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
BYU 104, Utah 79
If you told Ute fans they scored 79 points and outrebounded BYU by 15, they would have thought they won. They certainly would not have anticipated a 25-point blowout loss. Jimmer went for 47 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and only 2 turnovers. 4 other Cougars scored in double figures.
Rebounding was obviously a big concern for BYU as the Utes had 3 players pulling down 10 or more rebounds. Those 3 outrebounded BYU by themselves.
I'm happy to be mistaken again about BYU. They shot better from 3-point range than they did from inside the arc. Their defense forced 22 Utah turnovers and held them 25% from three-point range.
These are definitely two programs headed in opposite directions. I have always thought Boylen was the wrong guy at the helm for Utah. He proves it a little more each week.
Rebounding was obviously a big concern for BYU as the Utes had 3 players pulling down 10 or more rebounds. Those 3 outrebounded BYU by themselves.
I'm happy to be mistaken again about BYU. They shot better from 3-point range than they did from inside the arc. Their defense forced 22 Utah turnovers and held them 25% from three-point range.
These are definitely two programs headed in opposite directions. I have always thought Boylen was the wrong guy at the helm for Utah. He proves it a little more each week.
Monday, January 10, 2011
BYU @ Utah, 1/11/2011
Hunstman Center History
You never know what you are going to get from BYU-Utah games up in the Huntsman Center. Most of the time in recent memory, the games have been low-scoring, defensive affairs (or just bad offense on occasion). Occasionally though, they end up like two years ago when the Utes won a 94-88 OT game. Last season's game was 71-51. Three years ago was a 55-52 BYU victory.
Utah Going In
The Utes' early season success has come to a grinding halt. After a 7-3 start, they have lost 6 in a row. During the 6-game losing streak, Utah is averaging just 65 points/game. In the 10 games prior, they only scored less than 65 once, when they scored 64 at Michigan.
Will Clyburn has been playing all season long, averaging nearly 19 point and over 8 rebounds/game. Josh Watkins started hot and has cooled off. The team as a whole has been very streaky. They have had a couple of games shooting over 50% from three-point range. But they have also had several games under 30%. But there have been even more games under 20% than there have been games over 50%: they are 32% on the season.
They just are not getting any consistent performance out of any single player outside of Clyburn. Clyburn will be a tough player for BYU to defend. He looked quick in the few snippets I've seen, but he's also very tall. Too quick for Collinsworth and too big for Emery? Maybe. But if Watkins or Chris Kupets doesn't step up, Clyburn cannot carry the team to victory all by himself, as he has proved the last 6 games.
BYU Going In
The Cougars are coming into the game on a 6-game winning streak, with some atypical wins, including the win at UNLV last Wednesday and their second win in the state of New York this season. They are averaging nearly 85 points/game during that stretch, with two 90-point or more games. Jimmer has gone for over 30 a couple of times. Jackson Emery has hit 6 three-pointers multiple times. Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have each achieved a double-double. 7 different players have scored in double digits in the 6-game streak. BYU came in at 10/11 in the respective polls this week. They are drawing love from national writers, bracketology forecasters, and college basketball junkies: BYU is coming into this game riding a wave that is almost unmatched in their history.
BYU has shown a distinct inability to play solid post defense without fouling. Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are a solid 4-5 punch offensively, but one of them is inevitably in foul trouble without a reliable backup. Stephen Rogers is too scrawny to play post defense. Logan Magnusson is too short. James Anderson is too uncoordinated. Utah has lacked an ability to get points from their post players consistently, so BYU will have a nice break from that this game (or else make Foster or Washburn look like future lottery picks). Jimmer has had one bad game against Utah, last year at the HC, but has averaged 18 points/game against Utah in his 6-game career against the Utes, compared to the 16 points/game he averages in his career (he didn't score much as a freshman, which brings his average down).
Prediction
I think we'll see a more average scoring performance for both of these teams, not the typical lower-scoring game where 60 points wins, or the wild 90 points required to win type of game. BYU has been more consistent in their shooting for the most part this season. They have played so many games away from home this season that the Huntsman Center will not seem a difficult place to score. I would expect BYU to start a little faster than they have been, with Jimmer taking control of the offense: I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4 assists or 10 points in the first 7 or 8 minutes of action. Utah is going to have at least one player put together a phenomenal first half to keep them in it: first glance would say Clyburn, but I'd say Kupets off the bench is another candidate (or Washburn if the BYU bigs get in foul trouble).
Utah may have some good basketball ahead of them, and it may turn around Tuesday night, but Ute fans everywhere probably do not like their chances against the Cougars. I like the Utes' chances for the game's middle 20 minutes, but the first 10 and the last 10 will probably belong to BYU. BYU gets another road victory, BYU 77, Utah 65.
You never know what you are going to get from BYU-Utah games up in the Huntsman Center. Most of the time in recent memory, the games have been low-scoring, defensive affairs (or just bad offense on occasion). Occasionally though, they end up like two years ago when the Utes won a 94-88 OT game. Last season's game was 71-51. Three years ago was a 55-52 BYU victory.
Utah Going In
The Utes' early season success has come to a grinding halt. After a 7-3 start, they have lost 6 in a row. During the 6-game losing streak, Utah is averaging just 65 points/game. In the 10 games prior, they only scored less than 65 once, when they scored 64 at Michigan.
Will Clyburn has been playing all season long, averaging nearly 19 point and over 8 rebounds/game. Josh Watkins started hot and has cooled off. The team as a whole has been very streaky. They have had a couple of games shooting over 50% from three-point range. But they have also had several games under 30%. But there have been even more games under 20% than there have been games over 50%: they are 32% on the season.
They just are not getting any consistent performance out of any single player outside of Clyburn. Clyburn will be a tough player for BYU to defend. He looked quick in the few snippets I've seen, but he's also very tall. Too quick for Collinsworth and too big for Emery? Maybe. But if Watkins or Chris Kupets doesn't step up, Clyburn cannot carry the team to victory all by himself, as he has proved the last 6 games.
BYU Going In
The Cougars are coming into the game on a 6-game winning streak, with some atypical wins, including the win at UNLV last Wednesday and their second win in the state of New York this season. They are averaging nearly 85 points/game during that stretch, with two 90-point or more games. Jimmer has gone for over 30 a couple of times. Jackson Emery has hit 6 three-pointers multiple times. Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have each achieved a double-double. 7 different players have scored in double digits in the 6-game streak. BYU came in at 10/11 in the respective polls this week. They are drawing love from national writers, bracketology forecasters, and college basketball junkies: BYU is coming into this game riding a wave that is almost unmatched in their history.
BYU has shown a distinct inability to play solid post defense without fouling. Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are a solid 4-5 punch offensively, but one of them is inevitably in foul trouble without a reliable backup. Stephen Rogers is too scrawny to play post defense. Logan Magnusson is too short. James Anderson is too uncoordinated. Utah has lacked an ability to get points from their post players consistently, so BYU will have a nice break from that this game (or else make Foster or Washburn look like future lottery picks). Jimmer has had one bad game against Utah, last year at the HC, but has averaged 18 points/game against Utah in his 6-game career against the Utes, compared to the 16 points/game he averages in his career (he didn't score much as a freshman, which brings his average down).
Prediction
I think we'll see a more average scoring performance for both of these teams, not the typical lower-scoring game where 60 points wins, or the wild 90 points required to win type of game. BYU has been more consistent in their shooting for the most part this season. They have played so many games away from home this season that the Huntsman Center will not seem a difficult place to score. I would expect BYU to start a little faster than they have been, with Jimmer taking control of the offense: I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4 assists or 10 points in the first 7 or 8 minutes of action. Utah is going to have at least one player put together a phenomenal first half to keep them in it: first glance would say Clyburn, but I'd say Kupets off the bench is another candidate (or Washburn if the BYU bigs get in foul trouble).
Utah may have some good basketball ahead of them, and it may turn around Tuesday night, but Ute fans everywhere probably do not like their chances against the Cougars. I like the Utes' chances for the game's middle 20 minutes, but the first 10 and the last 10 will probably belong to BYU. BYU gets another road victory, BYU 77, Utah 65.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Keeping Mo Honest: MWC 1/8/2011
SDSU at Utah
I said: SDSU 71, Utah 63
Actual: SDSU 71, Utah 62
Note: I'll try to tighten this up in the future and do better...
New Mexico at Wyoming
I said: New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52
Actual: Wyoming 67, New Mexico 66
Note: I gave New Mexico's defense a little too much credit. Wyoming scored right at their season average. I expected a little bit more out of the Lobos, even on the road. Their already teetering hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid took a HUGE hit with this loss.
TCU at UNLV
I said: UNLV 78, TCU 56
Actual: UNLV 83, TCU 49
Note: UNLV must have been even more focused than I thought.
Air Force at BYU
I said: BYU 73, Air Force 60
Actual: BYU 76, Air Force 66
Note: I was feeling real good with a halftime score of 37-30...
That takes me to 4-2 on the MWC season (I went 1-1 earlier this week). BYU fans can expect BYU to be in the 11-12 range, maybe as low as 13, in the polls when they come out on Monday morning. A lot of teams around them dropped a game or two this week, coupled with BYU's big win at UNLV, means the Cougars will be moving up.
I said: SDSU 71, Utah 63
Actual: SDSU 71, Utah 62
Note: I'll try to tighten this up in the future and do better...
New Mexico at Wyoming
I said: New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52
Actual: Wyoming 67, New Mexico 66
Note: I gave New Mexico's defense a little too much credit. Wyoming scored right at their season average. I expected a little bit more out of the Lobos, even on the road. Their already teetering hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid took a HUGE hit with this loss.
TCU at UNLV
I said: UNLV 78, TCU 56
Actual: UNLV 83, TCU 49
Note: UNLV must have been even more focused than I thought.
Air Force at BYU
I said: BYU 73, Air Force 60
Actual: BYU 76, Air Force 66
Note: I was feeling real good with a halftime score of 37-30...
That takes me to 4-2 on the MWC season (I went 1-1 earlier this week). BYU fans can expect BYU to be in the 11-12 range, maybe as low as 13, in the polls when they come out on Monday morning. A lot of teams around them dropped a game or two this week, coupled with BYU's big win at UNLV, means the Cougars will be moving up.
Air Force-BYU, 1/8/2011
BYU is coming off of an emotional win at UNLV. They have slaughtered Air Force every time they have played them in recent memory. It's right before traveling to Utah next week. If BYU were to have a let down game, this would definitely be the one.
A Look at Air Force
They have a very efficient offense. They shoot 48% from the field. 63% of their baskets are assisted. They don't score as many points (68.5/game), but that is a result of their offense. Because they are not bigger, faster, or stronger than any of their opponents, they slow the game down and grind it with their Princeton Offense.
They are a great team-rebounding team. They average 7 steals and 4 blocks a game. They play a lot of zone. BYU tends to either kill this zone with outside shooting or get killed by it with too much standing around. The past few years they have killed it. Last year, Jackson Emery killed them with his shooting, draining 9 threes in the two games against the Falcons. Jimmer never broke 10 points (the first game against Air Force Jimmer was just coming back from Mono).
Prediction
BYU is bound to have some struggles at some point in the first half (probably between minutes 8-13). They need to get some bench players minutes/starters some rest. Some of the younger players will need to realize they need to take the Falcons seriously. They need to adjust to the Falcons zone, slower pace, and perimeter-oriented offense. The Falcons are improved. All of this factors will contribute to a closer-than-usual halftime score, but this is going to be a full Marriott Center excited to cheer on their Cougars. This is a focused and determined BYU squad. They will not lose at home to Air Force. BYU 73, Air Force 60.
TV/Radio
The game is on at 1pm Mountain Time on the Mtn. Network. As always, it is available to listen to on ksl.com live streaming, with your voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell. I have not seen a free, live video online stream available for this game. If anybody does, let me know!
A Look at Air Force
They have a very efficient offense. They shoot 48% from the field. 63% of their baskets are assisted. They don't score as many points (68.5/game), but that is a result of their offense. Because they are not bigger, faster, or stronger than any of their opponents, they slow the game down and grind it with their Princeton Offense.
They are a great team-rebounding team. They average 7 steals and 4 blocks a game. They play a lot of zone. BYU tends to either kill this zone with outside shooting or get killed by it with too much standing around. The past few years they have killed it. Last year, Jackson Emery killed them with his shooting, draining 9 threes in the two games against the Falcons. Jimmer never broke 10 points (the first game against Air Force Jimmer was just coming back from Mono).
Prediction
BYU is bound to have some struggles at some point in the first half (probably between minutes 8-13). They need to get some bench players minutes/starters some rest. Some of the younger players will need to realize they need to take the Falcons seriously. They need to adjust to the Falcons zone, slower pace, and perimeter-oriented offense. The Falcons are improved. All of this factors will contribute to a closer-than-usual halftime score, but this is going to be a full Marriott Center excited to cheer on their Cougars. This is a focused and determined BYU squad. They will not lose at home to Air Force. BYU 73, Air Force 60.
TV/Radio
The game is on at 1pm Mountain Time on the Mtn. Network. As always, it is available to listen to on ksl.com live streaming, with your voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell. I have not seen a free, live video online stream available for this game. If anybody does, let me know!
Friday, January 7, 2011
MWC Hoops Games, 1/8/2011
SDSU at Utah
The question is: will anybody show up for this game? They asked for people "not to lose faith" and then proceeded to lose at Air Force. This is a San Diego State game they have little hope of winning. They gave SDSU a lot of trouble last season in both contests, before losing by 2 at home, and 7 on the road. But the Utes had a major overhaul and this is a very different team from that one. Boylen does return after a leave to attend to a family illness. Is that motivation enough to get the Utes back on track? Nope. SDSU 71, Utah 63.
New Mexico at Wyoming
Defending Conference Champ New Mexico hits the road for their first conference game against the woefully bad Wyoming Cowboys. They are playing better over the past two weeks than they did the first 6 weeks of the season, but it's still pretty bad. New Mexico has a lot of weapons and they only need one of them to be firing to take care of business in Laramie. New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52.
TCU at UNLV
The Rebels look to right the ship after dropping a home game. They are playing a team that was competitive for a half against SDSU before the Aztecs put the clamps on them defensively. I imagine we'll see a start-to-finish clamp down by UNLV, if their chemistry has recovered after some post-game locker room fireworks Wednesday night. TCU will need big nights from both Ronnie Moss and Garlon Green to have a chance. I don't think they get enough from those two to stay with the Rebels. UNLV 78, TCU 56.
The question is: will anybody show up for this game? They asked for people "not to lose faith" and then proceeded to lose at Air Force. This is a San Diego State game they have little hope of winning. They gave SDSU a lot of trouble last season in both contests, before losing by 2 at home, and 7 on the road. But the Utes had a major overhaul and this is a very different team from that one. Boylen does return after a leave to attend to a family illness. Is that motivation enough to get the Utes back on track? Nope. SDSU 71, Utah 63.
New Mexico at Wyoming
Defending Conference Champ New Mexico hits the road for their first conference game against the woefully bad Wyoming Cowboys. They are playing better over the past two weeks than they did the first 6 weeks of the season, but it's still pretty bad. New Mexico has a lot of weapons and they only need one of them to be firing to take care of business in Laramie. New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52.
TCU at UNLV
The Rebels look to right the ship after dropping a home game. They are playing a team that was competitive for a half against SDSU before the Aztecs put the clamps on them defensively. I imagine we'll see a start-to-finish clamp down by UNLV, if their chemistry has recovered after some post-game locker room fireworks Wednesday night. TCU will need big nights from both Ronnie Moss and Garlon Green to have a chance. I don't think they get enough from those two to stay with the Rebels. UNLV 78, TCU 56.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
BYU Notes, 1/6/2011
This has been a great week for Cougar fans.
Winning at UNLV
This is huge. It is impossible to describe. I found myself listening intently to every last moment of the KSL post-game show. I kept waiting for the final score to change. It was almost surreal. I could not believe it. This was their first true road win against a true top-30 RPI team.
Returning Starter
Left Tackle Matt Reynolds decided to return for his senior season. The OL was going to be a strength for BYU in 2011, with a lot of experience and size returning, whether Reynolds returned or not. This just adds to the quality of the already strong Offensive Line.
Bad Week for Utah is a Good Week for BYU
Two days after pleading with their fans to not give up on them, Utah basketball went out and lost to the Air Force Falcons. I know they are a better team this year, but they have still only won one conference game the last two years combined.
James Rodgers Returns
Oregon State WR/PR/KR James Rodgers has been granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA. This is bad for BYU because it will give them one more playmaker to watch out for in October. But this could also be good for BYU because he instantly makes Oregon State a better team, so if BYU wins the game then they will have won against a better opponent. It also makes BYU less likely to win...
Winning at UNLV
This is huge. It is impossible to describe. I found myself listening intently to every last moment of the KSL post-game show. I kept waiting for the final score to change. It was almost surreal. I could not believe it. This was their first true road win against a true top-30 RPI team.
Returning Starter
Left Tackle Matt Reynolds decided to return for his senior season. The OL was going to be a strength for BYU in 2011, with a lot of experience and size returning, whether Reynolds returned or not. This just adds to the quality of the already strong Offensive Line.
Bad Week for Utah is a Good Week for BYU
Two days after pleading with their fans to not give up on them, Utah basketball went out and lost to the Air Force Falcons. I know they are a better team this year, but they have still only won one conference game the last two years combined.
James Rodgers Returns
Oregon State WR/PR/KR James Rodgers has been granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA. This is bad for BYU because it will give them one more playmaker to watch out for in October. But this could also be good for BYU because he instantly makes Oregon State a better team, so if BYU wins the game then they will have won against a better opponent. It also makes BYU less likely to win...
Jax and Jimmer, Cougars Dismantle Rebels
I have never been happier to be wrong about a BYU prediction. Just real quick, the 3 things that stood out to me:
1) This BYU team is mentally tough. BYU went over 5 minutes without a point as UNLV built a 10-point lead in the first half, 25-15. They would make it 10 again, 27-17. But then, Jimmer and crew stepped up. Davies scored 6 points over the last 5.5 minutes and had 4 rebounds in a 3-minute span. Hartsock hit a huge 3. Jimmer added 14 points in that final push before halftime. They held UNLV to 5 points in that span and BYU went into halftime with a 3-point lead. That 25-15 deficit against previous BYU teams would have sunk them. Not with this team.
2) UNLV's previous success hampered them. They had shot so well against BYU in previous games, that they took way too many long jumpers, because they expected to make them because they always had. Tre-Von Willis was especially bad: 4-16, 2-8 from three-point land, and only 2 assists. Oscar Bellfield was only 3-9, with two of those makes coming in the late-game flurry that cut the 21-point lead to 8 with just over a minute to go. But even then, if you had told me UNLV was going to score 77 points in this game, I would have said they won by at least 7 points. Granted, they scored 28 points in the last 10 minutes when they trailed by 15 points or more.
3) BYU did a very good job utilizing Collinsworth and Emery in breaking the press. Jimmer was able to be able Jimmer because he was freed up from dealing with full-court pressure the whole game. It's the adjustment I've been waiting to see from BYU. Jimmer would make a quick pass to Jackson Emery and Kyle Collinsworth, then make a move away from the ball and get it back on the right side of the court. Jimmer was freed up to score a game-high 39 points and dish out a game-high 5 assists. Jackson Emery was open to hit 6 threes of his own. The ability to keep the ball moving in transition also contributed to Brandon Davies 15 points and 10 rebounds, as a lot of his points came "fast break" style with an open layup from an unsettled defense or get an offensive rebound because the Rebels weren't in position to box him out. It also helped BYU keep its turnovers down. They had 7 in the first 10 minutes of the game and finished with 13, 3 of which came in the final 4.5 minutes of the game. For a 25-minute stretch, BYU committed 3 turnovers against the second-best team in the nation at causing turnovers.
This team continues to impress and do things that BYU teams do not do. As I stated about this team earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/12/this-is-not-your-typical-byu-basketball.html), this is not your typical BYU basketball team. A typical BYU basketball team took that 10-point first half deficit and turned it into a 20 or 30-point one. It's the whole team too, not just Jimmer. Different guys made crucial plays at crucial times. Magnusson had a crucial rebound and basket, Hartsock hit a timely three, Davies controlled the glass during a BYU run and added 15 points, and Jackson hit big threes from beginning to end. And then there was Jimmer's 39 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.
1) This BYU team is mentally tough. BYU went over 5 minutes without a point as UNLV built a 10-point lead in the first half, 25-15. They would make it 10 again, 27-17. But then, Jimmer and crew stepped up. Davies scored 6 points over the last 5.5 minutes and had 4 rebounds in a 3-minute span. Hartsock hit a huge 3. Jimmer added 14 points in that final push before halftime. They held UNLV to 5 points in that span and BYU went into halftime with a 3-point lead. That 25-15 deficit against previous BYU teams would have sunk them. Not with this team.
2) UNLV's previous success hampered them. They had shot so well against BYU in previous games, that they took way too many long jumpers, because they expected to make them because they always had. Tre-Von Willis was especially bad: 4-16, 2-8 from three-point land, and only 2 assists. Oscar Bellfield was only 3-9, with two of those makes coming in the late-game flurry that cut the 21-point lead to 8 with just over a minute to go. But even then, if you had told me UNLV was going to score 77 points in this game, I would have said they won by at least 7 points. Granted, they scored 28 points in the last 10 minutes when they trailed by 15 points or more.
3) BYU did a very good job utilizing Collinsworth and Emery in breaking the press. Jimmer was able to be able Jimmer because he was freed up from dealing with full-court pressure the whole game. It's the adjustment I've been waiting to see from BYU. Jimmer would make a quick pass to Jackson Emery and Kyle Collinsworth, then make a move away from the ball and get it back on the right side of the court. Jimmer was freed up to score a game-high 39 points and dish out a game-high 5 assists. Jackson Emery was open to hit 6 threes of his own. The ability to keep the ball moving in transition also contributed to Brandon Davies 15 points and 10 rebounds, as a lot of his points came "fast break" style with an open layup from an unsettled defense or get an offensive rebound because the Rebels weren't in position to box him out. It also helped BYU keep its turnovers down. They had 7 in the first 10 minutes of the game and finished with 13, 3 of which came in the final 4.5 minutes of the game. For a 25-minute stretch, BYU committed 3 turnovers against the second-best team in the nation at causing turnovers.
This team continues to impress and do things that BYU teams do not do. As I stated about this team earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/12/this-is-not-your-typical-byu-basketball.html), this is not your typical BYU basketball team. A typical BYU basketball team took that 10-point first half deficit and turned it into a 20 or 30-point one. It's the whole team too, not just Jimmer. Different guys made crucial plays at crucial times. Magnusson had a crucial rebound and basket, Hartsock hit a timely three, Davies controlled the glass during a BYU run and added 15 points, and Jackson hit big threes from beginning to end. And then there was Jimmer's 39 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
BYU-UNLV 1/5/2011
Happy New Year! Cougars, welcome to Las Vegas for Game One of the MWC season. BYU begins its final MWC journey in the same place it will end: the dreaded Thomas & Mack. BYU's last win against UNLV at the T&M was 2005, Steve Cleveland's final season at the helm, a 9-21 season. Every BYU team since that last win has been much better than the one that left victorious, but none have left with a W. In 8 attempts. Some have been excruciatingly bad, like a 70-41 setback in 2008. Others have been excruciatingly frustrating, like the 75-74 loss in 2009, or the 70-66 loss in the MWC Tournament in 2010.
BYU Heading In
The Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, averaging 86 points/game during that time. They are heading in without backup PF Chris Collinsworth. They played 9 of their last 10 Division I games away from home, winning 8 of the 9 non-home games. Jimmer has scored over 20 points in 6 consecutive Division I games. While it has been nearly a month since BYU's last "complete" game, they have still found ways to win in tough environments and in tough situations. However, no team, no environment, no situation has been as tough as what tonight's matchup will be.
UNLV Heading In
The Runnin' Rebels have won 3 straight games, including a win over an 11th-ranked (albeit shorthanded) Kansas State on a neutral floor. Their last two home wins have both been by over 20 points. A lot of guys have been stepping up of late with scoring, rebounding, and, as always, playing defense. This will be only their second game since before Christmas, so they should be rested (if not rusty). But none of their recent opponents have commanded the discipline and fundamentally sound play that playing BYU does.
Prediction
Last season, BYU had as complete of a team as they have had under Coach Rose and lost to UNLV twice at the T&M. UNLV brings back most everything from that team. BYU lost its inside presence in Chris Miles, its hustle guy Tyler Haws, and its streaky shooter Jonathan Tavernari. BYU has proved me wrong on a few occasions this season, winning games that BYU typically loses. However, the UCLA game showed that it is still BYU, and they lose a majority of the 50-50 games away from home (and this is certainly one of those games). But even still, BYU should probably win this particular game. UNLV hasn't played much basketball the past 3 weeks. Jimmer is on fire. The bench has been playing decently well. Emery has started hitting threes. Hartsock, Davies, and Abouo are controlling the glass.
But if Jimmer is bringing it up the court with Tre'Von Willis in his face the whole way for 40 minutes, I do not like the Cougars' chances. BYU has yet to make this adjustment against New Mexico and UNLV for some reason, and by the time Jimmer finally crosses half-court he is looking to get rid of the ball, just to avoid the pressure. I think it is that Rebel defense, and the raucous Rebel home crowd, that make the ultimate difference, as they so often do in this game. UNLV 71, BYU 65. However, I do like BYU's chances in a rematch in the MWC Tournament.
BYU Heading In
The Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, averaging 86 points/game during that time. They are heading in without backup PF Chris Collinsworth. They played 9 of their last 10 Division I games away from home, winning 8 of the 9 non-home games. Jimmer has scored over 20 points in 6 consecutive Division I games. While it has been nearly a month since BYU's last "complete" game, they have still found ways to win in tough environments and in tough situations. However, no team, no environment, no situation has been as tough as what tonight's matchup will be.
UNLV Heading In
The Runnin' Rebels have won 3 straight games, including a win over an 11th-ranked (albeit shorthanded) Kansas State on a neutral floor. Their last two home wins have both been by over 20 points. A lot of guys have been stepping up of late with scoring, rebounding, and, as always, playing defense. This will be only their second game since before Christmas, so they should be rested (if not rusty). But none of their recent opponents have commanded the discipline and fundamentally sound play that playing BYU does.
Prediction
Last season, BYU had as complete of a team as they have had under Coach Rose and lost to UNLV twice at the T&M. UNLV brings back most everything from that team. BYU lost its inside presence in Chris Miles, its hustle guy Tyler Haws, and its streaky shooter Jonathan Tavernari. BYU has proved me wrong on a few occasions this season, winning games that BYU typically loses. However, the UCLA game showed that it is still BYU, and they lose a majority of the 50-50 games away from home (and this is certainly one of those games). But even still, BYU should probably win this particular game. UNLV hasn't played much basketball the past 3 weeks. Jimmer is on fire. The bench has been playing decently well. Emery has started hitting threes. Hartsock, Davies, and Abouo are controlling the glass.
But if Jimmer is bringing it up the court with Tre'Von Willis in his face the whole way for 40 minutes, I do not like the Cougars' chances. BYU has yet to make this adjustment against New Mexico and UNLV for some reason, and by the time Jimmer finally crosses half-court he is looking to get rid of the ball, just to avoid the pressure. I think it is that Rebel defense, and the raucous Rebel home crowd, that make the ultimate difference, as they so often do in this game. UNLV 71, BYU 65. However, I do like BYU's chances in a rematch in the MWC Tournament.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Ute Notes, 1/4/2011
Football
CB Brandon Burton has declared for the NFL draft. This will be a big hit on the Ute secondary, which was probably already the big weakness of their defense heading into next season. This means that SS Blechen is the lone returning starter, with FS Justin Taplin-Ross and CB Lamar Chapman set to graduate. Coming into this year, they were replacing Joe Dale, Robert Johnson, and RJ Stanford, but had experienced guys like Justin Taplin-Ross, Lamar Chapman, Brandon Burton to fill the void. This next year, they won't have quite that same depth coming back. We'll find out a lot about Conroy Black at CB and Greg Bird at FS next season. The other potential CBs would be Ryan Lacy, Reggie Topps, and Quade Chappuis. It will be an inexperienced bunch for sure. The front seven should help them ease into it, as 5 of the 7 starters return and 11 of the 14 on the "two-deep." Still, this was not good news for Utah's secondary and defense as they head into BCS Conference Utopia.
Basketball
The Utes are encouraging fans not to quit on them, stating that the best is yet to come. I suppose this is a step-up from Boylen grabbing the microphone after a game and chastising the fans that did show up for the lack of support by the fan-base (hint: the ones in the stands are showing support). First off, I do not think that the Utes will ever be relevant with Boylen at the helm. He stifles player-development by never allowing a "leader on the court" to develop. Basketball-wise, he may be similar to Izzo, but people-skills-wise, he is a hermit. Secondly, Utah has yet to show the fan-base some reason to have faith that the conference season will be different. They have lost 5 of 6, with 4 of those opponents having no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and the other two on the bubble (Butler and Michigan). In 4 of the games, they were not even all that competitive, losing by double-digits. It's a one-man show right now: I can watch the Lakers play if I want to see that.
This is a desperate grab. And this is a team that will have to compete in an improving Pac 12 next season. Maybe 'compete' is too strong of a word. While the Utah football team will be competitive in the Pac 12 (though I do not belief they will compete for titles, but they will be competitive), the hoops team clearly bit off more than it can chew. Maybe Boylen will be gone after this season and they can get somebody who can lead this once-proud program back to where it belongs: relevance, and Sweet 16s. I continue to be, as always, a Boylen critic.
CB Brandon Burton has declared for the NFL draft. This will be a big hit on the Ute secondary, which was probably already the big weakness of their defense heading into next season. This means that SS Blechen is the lone returning starter, with FS Justin Taplin-Ross and CB Lamar Chapman set to graduate. Coming into this year, they were replacing Joe Dale, Robert Johnson, and RJ Stanford, but had experienced guys like Justin Taplin-Ross, Lamar Chapman, Brandon Burton to fill the void. This next year, they won't have quite that same depth coming back. We'll find out a lot about Conroy Black at CB and Greg Bird at FS next season. The other potential CBs would be Ryan Lacy, Reggie Topps, and Quade Chappuis. It will be an inexperienced bunch for sure. The front seven should help them ease into it, as 5 of the 7 starters return and 11 of the 14 on the "two-deep." Still, this was not good news for Utah's secondary and defense as they head into BCS Conference Utopia.
Basketball
The Utes are encouraging fans not to quit on them, stating that the best is yet to come. I suppose this is a step-up from Boylen grabbing the microphone after a game and chastising the fans that did show up for the lack of support by the fan-base (hint: the ones in the stands are showing support). First off, I do not think that the Utes will ever be relevant with Boylen at the helm. He stifles player-development by never allowing a "leader on the court" to develop. Basketball-wise, he may be similar to Izzo, but people-skills-wise, he is a hermit. Secondly, Utah has yet to show the fan-base some reason to have faith that the conference season will be different. They have lost 5 of 6, with 4 of those opponents having no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and the other two on the bubble (Butler and Michigan). In 4 of the games, they were not even all that competitive, losing by double-digits. It's a one-man show right now: I can watch the Lakers play if I want to see that.
This is a desperate grab. And this is a team that will have to compete in an improving Pac 12 next season. Maybe 'compete' is too strong of a word. While the Utah football team will be competitive in the Pac 12 (though I do not belief they will compete for titles, but they will be competitive), the hoops team clearly bit off more than it can chew. Maybe Boylen will be gone after this season and they can get somebody who can lead this once-proud program back to where it belongs: relevance, and Sweet 16s. I continue to be, as always, a Boylen critic.
Monday, January 3, 2011
MWC Hoops Preview, 2011
Reminiscence
This is the final year of the MWC. I know that it will continue to exist, but it will no longer be the Mountain West as we know it. Take out Utah and BYU in 2011. Take out TCU in 2012. Add Boise State in 2011. Add Fresno State and Nevada in 2012. Utah and BYU have produced some of the best teams in the 11 years of MWC basketball. TCU has had some big upsets and nearly pulled off a few more.
This is the final ride. This is the last year that three MWC teams can make the NCAA Tournament. Without BYU and Utah, and with Boise State, there are not enough quality wins available for UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico to get in conference play to make a push for at-large bids. The three programs also have a tendency to lose games it shouldn't lose. They cannot make up for a loss to Wyoming with a win at home against BYU, or an MWC Tournament win against BYU. Enough nostalgia, let's talk MWC hoops 2011.
The Competition
SDSU is a good team. BYU is a disciplined team. UNLV is a talented team. New Mexico is a tough team. Colorado State is a much improved team. Air Force is a "Rudy" team. TCU is a team on the rise. Utah is a team that can be very good when it's clicking. Wyoming is a team that plays at very high altitude.
That is currently the order in which their records place them: SDSU, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming. The RPI has them as follows: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming.
I think they fall into very defined groups.
The Contenders: SDSU, UNLV, BYU
The Pretenders: New Mexico, CSU
Not Horrible: TCU, Air Force, Utah
In A Class By Themselves: Wyoming
Why BYU, SDSU, and UNLV are Contenders
BYU and SDSU each have 6 wins against the RPI top 100. UNLV has two wins against the top 50, including one on the road. All three made the tournament in 2010. All three return at least 6 significant contributors from those tournament teams of a year ago. With the exception of UNLV's homecourt loss to UC-Santa Barbara, none of them have inexplicable losses. Each team has at least 6 wins away from home. Each has a huge homecourt advantage. All three of these teams will go 12-4 or better in conference.
Why New Mexico and CSU are Not
New Mexico is 0-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 4-3 away from home. Their only road wins are against teams that would be 9th in the MWC. CSU is 2-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 5-3 away from home. They lost by double digits at home to Sam Houston. Their best double-digit win was against Northern Colorado at home. When the dust settles, they will finish 11-5 or worse, CSU around 9-7 or 8-8.
Why TCU, Air Force, and Utah Can't Even Pretend
TCU has 5 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They are 1-1 against the top 100. They are 2-5 away from home. Air Force's best win was against Sam Houston. They have 2 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They only have 3 wins against the RPI top 200. They are 2-3 away from home. Utah has two losses to teams in 200 and 300's in RPI. They are 0-4 against the top 100. They are 1-6 away from home. One of them may go 8-8 in conference play, but the others will be 7-9/6-10.
Why Wyoming might be good
...
To me, it comes down to SDSU, UNLV, and BYU.
Why SDSU
Talent, length, athleticism. They have scorers, slashers, shooters, rebounders, and defensive specialists. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, D.J. Gay, and Malcolm Thomas are all capable of going for 20 points on any given night. Kawhi Leonard nearly averages a double-double. They are taking better care of the ball this season and valuing their possessions more.
Why not SDSU
They always lose a home game in conference. The MWC Champion is nearly always undefeated at home. They also drop a road game to one of the bottom-feeder teams. It's usually at Wyoming. The MWC Champion only loses to other top 4 MWC teams on the road. 13-3 is the standard and SDSU usually falls short of that mark.
Why BYU
Jimmer, Jimmer, Jimmer. How he does it is a bit of a mystery. He's not terribly quick, he doesn't jump high, and he gets flustered with full-court pressure. But he just finds ways to score. Some nights he throws it up from 28 feet. Others he gets into the lane and either finishes or gets free throws, or both. Jackson Emery can shoot the three. Kyle Collinsworth can penetrate. Noah Hartsock can stretch the defense. Brandon Davies can post guys up. Abouo can do a little bit of everything. Guys can come in off the bench and contribute on both sides of the floor. They have only lost two conference home games in the 5 years of Dave Rose.
Why not BYU
Post defense is a weakness. Davies and Hartsock often get in foul trouble. James Anderson is not athletic enough to guard against the bigs of SDSU and New Mexico. Chris Collinsworth has been hurt. Other guys have played well, but not necessarily when Jimmer wasn't playing well. Jimmer will have bad games (like he usually does at UNLV). They weren't tough enough to win in the Pit or at the Thomas & Mack last year, and are even less physical this year.
Why UNLV
Because they are always in the discussion. They can clamp down on defense like nobody else in the conference. 5 guys average 9 or more points a game. They have Tre'Von Willis, who is the ultimate big-game, big-play guy. He can shut-down any other team's best perimeter player for 40 minutes.
Why not UNLV
Rebounding: only one Rebel averages more than 5 boards per game. Chemistry: the egos can come together for the big games, but can lose focus on the other ones. Last season, they lost to four different teams in conference play, including an imploding Utah team twice.
Head-to-head
UNLV has a better chance of winning in Provo than SDSU, but they get BYU at a time when they are typically unstoppable at home: February. SDSU has a better chance of winning at the Thomas & Mack than BYU, since they have done it in recent memory but have to do it with an early start time (5pm Pacific) just before Valentine's Day when they are missing their lady friends back home. BYU has a better chance of winning on Montezuma Mesa than UNLV, since they have played SDSU close the past three seasons and beat them twice in a row, but might be out for some vengeance after getting embarrassed by BYU in Provo last season in their most recent meeting.
My prediction
SDSU
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Wyoming
The inconsistency that typically plagues SDSU has not yet reared its head. BYU is going to play in the most difficult venues in the MWC. There has been a lot of animosity built up over the past 30 years against BYU sports. This is the last time for the old WAC and current MWC members to have their say towards BYU's players, fans, and coaches. Keep your eyes open for, and protect your families from, the few idiots in the crowd, should you attend any BYU road games this season in San Diego, Vegas, and Albuquerque. UNLV is not a complete enough team to survive a 5-game stretch from January 25th through February 12th that includes at Wyoming, Utah, at BYU, at TCU, and SDSU. A 3-2 record may not cut it, and they might even be 2-3. New Mexico will probably be out front early on, but will falter as February progresses. Colorado State could sweep everyone below them in the standings and get swept by everyone above them in the standings. Utah will put it together enough to pull off a few upsets, but Boylen will fail to get his team motivated for a few games that he could/should win. TCU doesn't have a big enough fan base to have a significant enough homecourt advantage in the MWC. Air Force does have some good young players with experience, but they are still a year away. Wyoming is going the wrong direction.
Let the games begin: Wyoming at CSU, 7pm Mountain Time kicks it off. CSU wins it, 77-64.
This is the final year of the MWC. I know that it will continue to exist, but it will no longer be the Mountain West as we know it. Take out Utah and BYU in 2011. Take out TCU in 2012. Add Boise State in 2011. Add Fresno State and Nevada in 2012. Utah and BYU have produced some of the best teams in the 11 years of MWC basketball. TCU has had some big upsets and nearly pulled off a few more.
This is the final ride. This is the last year that three MWC teams can make the NCAA Tournament. Without BYU and Utah, and with Boise State, there are not enough quality wins available for UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico to get in conference play to make a push for at-large bids. The three programs also have a tendency to lose games it shouldn't lose. They cannot make up for a loss to Wyoming with a win at home against BYU, or an MWC Tournament win against BYU. Enough nostalgia, let's talk MWC hoops 2011.
The Competition
SDSU is a good team. BYU is a disciplined team. UNLV is a talented team. New Mexico is a tough team. Colorado State is a much improved team. Air Force is a "Rudy" team. TCU is a team on the rise. Utah is a team that can be very good when it's clicking. Wyoming is a team that plays at very high altitude.
That is currently the order in which their records place them: SDSU, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming. The RPI has them as follows: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming.
I think they fall into very defined groups.
The Contenders: SDSU, UNLV, BYU
The Pretenders: New Mexico, CSU
Not Horrible: TCU, Air Force, Utah
In A Class By Themselves: Wyoming
Why BYU, SDSU, and UNLV are Contenders
BYU and SDSU each have 6 wins against the RPI top 100. UNLV has two wins against the top 50, including one on the road. All three made the tournament in 2010. All three return at least 6 significant contributors from those tournament teams of a year ago. With the exception of UNLV's homecourt loss to UC-Santa Barbara, none of them have inexplicable losses. Each team has at least 6 wins away from home. Each has a huge homecourt advantage. All three of these teams will go 12-4 or better in conference.
Why New Mexico and CSU are Not
New Mexico is 0-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 4-3 away from home. Their only road wins are against teams that would be 9th in the MWC. CSU is 2-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 5-3 away from home. They lost by double digits at home to Sam Houston. Their best double-digit win was against Northern Colorado at home. When the dust settles, they will finish 11-5 or worse, CSU around 9-7 or 8-8.
Why TCU, Air Force, and Utah Can't Even Pretend
TCU has 5 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They are 1-1 against the top 100. They are 2-5 away from home. Air Force's best win was against Sam Houston. They have 2 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They only have 3 wins against the RPI top 200. They are 2-3 away from home. Utah has two losses to teams in 200 and 300's in RPI. They are 0-4 against the top 100. They are 1-6 away from home. One of them may go 8-8 in conference play, but the others will be 7-9/6-10.
Why Wyoming might be good
...
To me, it comes down to SDSU, UNLV, and BYU.
Why SDSU
Talent, length, athleticism. They have scorers, slashers, shooters, rebounders, and defensive specialists. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, D.J. Gay, and Malcolm Thomas are all capable of going for 20 points on any given night. Kawhi Leonard nearly averages a double-double. They are taking better care of the ball this season and valuing their possessions more.
Why not SDSU
They always lose a home game in conference. The MWC Champion is nearly always undefeated at home. They also drop a road game to one of the bottom-feeder teams. It's usually at Wyoming. The MWC Champion only loses to other top 4 MWC teams on the road. 13-3 is the standard and SDSU usually falls short of that mark.
Why BYU
Jimmer, Jimmer, Jimmer. How he does it is a bit of a mystery. He's not terribly quick, he doesn't jump high, and he gets flustered with full-court pressure. But he just finds ways to score. Some nights he throws it up from 28 feet. Others he gets into the lane and either finishes or gets free throws, or both. Jackson Emery can shoot the three. Kyle Collinsworth can penetrate. Noah Hartsock can stretch the defense. Brandon Davies can post guys up. Abouo can do a little bit of everything. Guys can come in off the bench and contribute on both sides of the floor. They have only lost two conference home games in the 5 years of Dave Rose.
Why not BYU
Post defense is a weakness. Davies and Hartsock often get in foul trouble. James Anderson is not athletic enough to guard against the bigs of SDSU and New Mexico. Chris Collinsworth has been hurt. Other guys have played well, but not necessarily when Jimmer wasn't playing well. Jimmer will have bad games (like he usually does at UNLV). They weren't tough enough to win in the Pit or at the Thomas & Mack last year, and are even less physical this year.
Why UNLV
Because they are always in the discussion. They can clamp down on defense like nobody else in the conference. 5 guys average 9 or more points a game. They have Tre'Von Willis, who is the ultimate big-game, big-play guy. He can shut-down any other team's best perimeter player for 40 minutes.
Why not UNLV
Rebounding: only one Rebel averages more than 5 boards per game. Chemistry: the egos can come together for the big games, but can lose focus on the other ones. Last season, they lost to four different teams in conference play, including an imploding Utah team twice.
Head-to-head
UNLV has a better chance of winning in Provo than SDSU, but they get BYU at a time when they are typically unstoppable at home: February. SDSU has a better chance of winning at the Thomas & Mack than BYU, since they have done it in recent memory but have to do it with an early start time (5pm Pacific) just before Valentine's Day when they are missing their lady friends back home. BYU has a better chance of winning on Montezuma Mesa than UNLV, since they have played SDSU close the past three seasons and beat them twice in a row, but might be out for some vengeance after getting embarrassed by BYU in Provo last season in their most recent meeting.
My prediction
SDSU
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Wyoming
The inconsistency that typically plagues SDSU has not yet reared its head. BYU is going to play in the most difficult venues in the MWC. There has been a lot of animosity built up over the past 30 years against BYU sports. This is the last time for the old WAC and current MWC members to have their say towards BYU's players, fans, and coaches. Keep your eyes open for, and protect your families from, the few idiots in the crowd, should you attend any BYU road games this season in San Diego, Vegas, and Albuquerque. UNLV is not a complete enough team to survive a 5-game stretch from January 25th through February 12th that includes at Wyoming, Utah, at BYU, at TCU, and SDSU. A 3-2 record may not cut it, and they might even be 2-3. New Mexico will probably be out front early on, but will falter as February progresses. Colorado State could sweep everyone below them in the standings and get swept by everyone above them in the standings. Utah will put it together enough to pull off a few upsets, but Boylen will fail to get his team motivated for a few games that he could/should win. TCU doesn't have a big enough fan base to have a significant enough homecourt advantage in the MWC. Air Force does have some good young players with experience, but they are still a year away. Wyoming is going the wrong direction.
Let the games begin: Wyoming at CSU, 7pm Mountain Time kicks it off. CSU wins it, 77-64.
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