Hey, I finally joined the Twitter revolution. You can follow me at: http://twitter.com/#!/moknowsbyu
Sorry, moknows and moknowssports were both taken already...
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Closing the Book on BYU Basketball, 2010-2011
Several months ago, I sat outside watching a late autumn sunset. Instead of watching the bright orange disappearing on the western horizon, I looked eastward. Instead of seeing the light slowly fade into the world beyond, I watched the darkness slowly overtake the sky. Such were the feelings of every BYU fan last Thursday, including myself as I sat in the arena watching an "underdog" Butler team taking it to one of the "Big 6" programs. The great light of a glorious season was fading, and the darkness crept in quickly. The pain was too close, the wondering what might have been too agonizing, and the knowledge that the greatest BYU basketball player in 30 years would never suit up again was too real. But, as always happens, the sun rises the next day. We can now look back with fondness on the road that BYU took, and the values they taught us along the way.
BYU set a school record with 32 wins. They advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 30 years. They had the National Player of the Year that captivated the nation on a nightly basis. They made headlines by actually sticking to their code of conduct and suspending a starter and star, at the same time other schools gave single game suspensions for drug arrests or violence. The team, the school, and all of us were proud of what BYU accomplished on the court, in the media, and in the lives of the young men we cheered for.
Jimmer Fredette was a breath of fresh air. He handled himself with great aplomb in the midst of immense media scrutiny. He was mature, collected, and humble. He deflected praise to his teammates. He was a superstar, who put team first. He was always one to talk about the lessons he learned either on the court, from a coach that survived cancer, or in the harsh reality of prison ball (as a guest, not as an inmate, unlike too many college players...). His teammates loved him, even while he was perceived as being a "ballhog" from many outsiders, critics, and rivals.
Brandon Davies was suspended for an incident that wouldn't raise eyebrows at any other program. But the university suspended him, as their Code requires. The more amazing part: knowing the dire consequences of doing so, Brandon Davies reported himself. He was not caught. No one threatened to spill the beans. He self-reported, and the school self-punished. While this undoubtedly made the road to the Final Four tougher for BYU, they did what had to be done. And BYU fans can be proud of their team, their university, and Brandon Davies for their integrity.
BYU saw major contributions from under-sized, under-athletic, and un-coordinated players. A 6'6" 210 pound "Power" Forward threw his body around and pulled down 5 rebounds/game in the NCAA Tournament, off the bench. A true freshman, playing out of position, in his final game before getting shipped off to Siberia, pulled down 15 rebounds against a higher-seeded BCS Conference team with more height, weight, athleticism, and leaping ability. Unlikely heroes emerged in game after game throughout the season, even as Jimmer was the main headline. This was truly a great team. Everybody contributed in their own different way. While we all wish some had contributed more on the offensive side in the final game of the season, there can be no doubting the effort and the heart of this BYU Cougar team. They found ways to win games they had no business winning.
Now that the pain of "what might have been" is past, it is time to appreciate this team for what is was: the greatest BYU team of our generation. They played with toughness, they won with effort, and they lost with Honor. Thank you, BYU Cougars, for letting us come along with you for this wonderful journey, this was a special team, with special kids, led by a special man. I am proud to be a BYU Cougar.
BYU set a school record with 32 wins. They advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 30 years. They had the National Player of the Year that captivated the nation on a nightly basis. They made headlines by actually sticking to their code of conduct and suspending a starter and star, at the same time other schools gave single game suspensions for drug arrests or violence. The team, the school, and all of us were proud of what BYU accomplished on the court, in the media, and in the lives of the young men we cheered for.
Jimmer Fredette was a breath of fresh air. He handled himself with great aplomb in the midst of immense media scrutiny. He was mature, collected, and humble. He deflected praise to his teammates. He was a superstar, who put team first. He was always one to talk about the lessons he learned either on the court, from a coach that survived cancer, or in the harsh reality of prison ball (as a guest, not as an inmate, unlike too many college players...). His teammates loved him, even while he was perceived as being a "ballhog" from many outsiders, critics, and rivals.
Brandon Davies was suspended for an incident that wouldn't raise eyebrows at any other program. But the university suspended him, as their Code requires. The more amazing part: knowing the dire consequences of doing so, Brandon Davies reported himself. He was not caught. No one threatened to spill the beans. He self-reported, and the school self-punished. While this undoubtedly made the road to the Final Four tougher for BYU, they did what had to be done. And BYU fans can be proud of their team, their university, and Brandon Davies for their integrity.
BYU saw major contributions from under-sized, under-athletic, and un-coordinated players. A 6'6" 210 pound "Power" Forward threw his body around and pulled down 5 rebounds/game in the NCAA Tournament, off the bench. A true freshman, playing out of position, in his final game before getting shipped off to Siberia, pulled down 15 rebounds against a higher-seeded BCS Conference team with more height, weight, athleticism, and leaping ability. Unlikely heroes emerged in game after game throughout the season, even as Jimmer was the main headline. This was truly a great team. Everybody contributed in their own different way. While we all wish some had contributed more on the offensive side in the final game of the season, there can be no doubting the effort and the heart of this BYU Cougar team. They found ways to win games they had no business winning.
Now that the pain of "what might have been" is past, it is time to appreciate this team for what is was: the greatest BYU team of our generation. They played with toughness, they won with effort, and they lost with Honor. Thank you, BYU Cougars, for letting us come along with you for this wonderful journey, this was a special team, with special kids, led by a special man. I am proud to be a BYU Cougar.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Post-New Orleans Thoughts
I just got home after a busy, frenetic, and anxious 23-hour trip "there and back again" (yes, the Hobbit was my in-flight novel of choice...). I am off to take a nap and catch up on the sleep I didn't get Wednesday night, and the less of it that I got Thursday night, but I wanted to throw out a few quick-hitters.
1) BYU fans dominated. I would venture to say that there were as many BYU fans as the other 3 schools combined, and I probably would not be far off in that venturing. I was shocked at the small number of Florida and Wisconsin fans. I realize they aren't exactly the bluebloods of college basketball, but the non-Big 6 schools absolutely killed them in fan support. Gator fans were jerks, as I noticed myself, and several other BYU fans I met at the airport confirmed (and one Florida fan further confirmed). Butler fans were awesome. They are very well-educated basketball fans. They traveled well and I found their cheers and chants to be quite entertaining. I had a very nice chat with a sweet, middle-age lady on my airport shuttle. It was the most insightful hoops conversation I have had in quite some time. Butler fans know their basketball. Oh, and their team was easily the best of the four teams playing in New Orleans last night.
2) As much as BYU people tried to say the Cougar team wasn't just Jimmer, it clearly was just him (at least offensively, I certainly could not discount the defense and rebounding of the "Fredettes"). He scored 22 of 32 in the second half, and when he wasn't making the clutch shots, it was clear that BYU was going to struggle to pull it out. How the Cougars managed to get it to OT is still a bit baffling to me, I'd have to go rewatch to figure out that mystery. But credit the team, I guess, for finding a way to be in the game when Jimmer was bricking shots, and nobody else was scoring.
3) Greg Wrubell is a stud. After getting to the game early, going through the pre-game, doing the game itself (which he always does a GREAT job at), doing the post-game wrap-up, and holding interviews with Noah and Coach Rose, he cleaned up all of his own electronic equipment, with rapid speed and precision. He cleaned up his mess of papers and tossed his garbage out down to his napkins and his water cup. After he vacated his seat on press row around halftime of the Wisconsin game, no one would have even known the seat had been occupied for the 5 hours previous by a man who was surely disappointed with the outcome of his team's game. Again, Greg Wrubell is a stud, and a guy I should try harder to emulate!
4) BYU just never made the plays they needed. Florida did. When BYU needed a stop, Florida hit a three. When BYU needed a basket, they turned it over or missed a lay-up. They missed a lot of opportunities. The one I come back to is where Jimmer missed his Ainge moment. Florida had the ball in a tie game, with an 8-second differential shot-clock game-clock, so BYU could have the last possession. It was Jimmer's chance to match Danny Ainge in the final possible way, a full-court dribble to win the game and send his team to the Elite Eight. But BYU failed to grab the rebound, which was brought in by 5'11" Erving Walker and Florida kept possession for the final shot. That was BYU's chance, it was Jimmer's time, and it passed without even the possibility of coming to fruition.
5) Wisconsin sucks. They shot 30% for the game: 24% the first 36 minutes, and 75% the last 4 minutes. They had 27 points in the first 30 minutes of the game before frantically adding 25 in the final 10. They sealed their Sweet 16 exit brick by brick. People say the low-scoring of the Big Ten has to do with the high-quality defense. I say those people aren't watching Big Ten games. Wisconsin missed badly time after time after time, even on a dozen completely uncontested looks. You can't blame altitude, fatigue, pressure, etc. They have a history of doing this: they did lose a game two weeks ago in which the victor only scored 36 points. That was the worst display of shooting I have seen since Michigan State's last game, and Penn State's before that. Notice a theme? Big-Ten hater, right here, and not just because Purdue wrecked my bracket by bowing out pre-Sweet 16.
1) BYU fans dominated. I would venture to say that there were as many BYU fans as the other 3 schools combined, and I probably would not be far off in that venturing. I was shocked at the small number of Florida and Wisconsin fans. I realize they aren't exactly the bluebloods of college basketball, but the non-Big 6 schools absolutely killed them in fan support. Gator fans were jerks, as I noticed myself, and several other BYU fans I met at the airport confirmed (and one Florida fan further confirmed). Butler fans were awesome. They are very well-educated basketball fans. They traveled well and I found their cheers and chants to be quite entertaining. I had a very nice chat with a sweet, middle-age lady on my airport shuttle. It was the most insightful hoops conversation I have had in quite some time. Butler fans know their basketball. Oh, and their team was easily the best of the four teams playing in New Orleans last night.
2) As much as BYU people tried to say the Cougar team wasn't just Jimmer, it clearly was just him (at least offensively, I certainly could not discount the defense and rebounding of the "Fredettes"). He scored 22 of 32 in the second half, and when he wasn't making the clutch shots, it was clear that BYU was going to struggle to pull it out. How the Cougars managed to get it to OT is still a bit baffling to me, I'd have to go rewatch to figure out that mystery. But credit the team, I guess, for finding a way to be in the game when Jimmer was bricking shots, and nobody else was scoring.
3) Greg Wrubell is a stud. After getting to the game early, going through the pre-game, doing the game itself (which he always does a GREAT job at), doing the post-game wrap-up, and holding interviews with Noah and Coach Rose, he cleaned up all of his own electronic equipment, with rapid speed and precision. He cleaned up his mess of papers and tossed his garbage out down to his napkins and his water cup. After he vacated his seat on press row around halftime of the Wisconsin game, no one would have even known the seat had been occupied for the 5 hours previous by a man who was surely disappointed with the outcome of his team's game. Again, Greg Wrubell is a stud, and a guy I should try harder to emulate!
4) BYU just never made the plays they needed. Florida did. When BYU needed a stop, Florida hit a three. When BYU needed a basket, they turned it over or missed a lay-up. They missed a lot of opportunities. The one I come back to is where Jimmer missed his Ainge moment. Florida had the ball in a tie game, with an 8-second differential shot-clock game-clock, so BYU could have the last possession. It was Jimmer's chance to match Danny Ainge in the final possible way, a full-court dribble to win the game and send his team to the Elite Eight. But BYU failed to grab the rebound, which was brought in by 5'11" Erving Walker and Florida kept possession for the final shot. That was BYU's chance, it was Jimmer's time, and it passed without even the possibility of coming to fruition.
5) Wisconsin sucks. They shot 30% for the game: 24% the first 36 minutes, and 75% the last 4 minutes. They had 27 points in the first 30 minutes of the game before frantically adding 25 in the final 10. They sealed their Sweet 16 exit brick by brick. People say the low-scoring of the Big Ten has to do with the high-quality defense. I say those people aren't watching Big Ten games. Wisconsin missed badly time after time after time, even on a dozen completely uncontested looks. You can't blame altitude, fatigue, pressure, etc. They have a history of doing this: they did lose a game two weeks ago in which the victor only scored 36 points. That was the worst display of shooting I have seen since Michigan State's last game, and Penn State's before that. Notice a theme? Big-Ten hater, right here, and not just because Purdue wrecked my bracket by bowing out pre-Sweet 16.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Final Thoughts, Pre-Sweet 16
Collinsworth Getting Comfortable
After re-watching the Gonzaga game in its entirety, I noticed that true freshman Kyle Collinsworth is really coming into his own. He has been looking better in rebounding situations for a few games now. He really has found his legs again and is skying to control the defensive glass. Against the Zags, he looked comfortable getting to the rim, he looked smooth on his free throws, and he seemed right at home putting the ball on the floor and playing the point. BYU could use a little help in all facets. Without a true post player (no, James Anderson does not count), they need Collinsworth to have confidence around the rim to score points and draw fouls, and then convert at the line. His ability to handle the ball for a few possessions in a row can take pressure off of Jimmer and free him up for some of his off-the-ball magic (which is very underrated!). Collinsworth has found a way to get back to his mid-season form. And just at the right time too.
Zoning Up
BYU incorporates several different strategies within its 2-3 zone, based on the opponent's strengths. What BYU was able to do against Gonzaga should work even better against Florida. The weak-side defenders were really cheating down low to help on the bigger interior players for the Zags. Gonzaga was occasionally able to use that to hit open threes with a skip pass or by going inside-out. Florida has better passers in the post, but worse shooters on the outside. Perhaps a similar strategy of really making a concerted effort to clog the middle will help the Cougars. Florida may be able to hit threes and make BYU pay: but I'd much rather make Florida beat me using one of their weaknesses than I would letting them go to one of their strengths.
With that said, whatever defensive strategies Coach Rose comes up with seem to turn to gold (with the exception of the first two games against New Mexico). I would expect to see BYU give Macklin a difficult time getting touches and good looks by incorporating more of a Gonzaga-style 2-3 zone than the one BYU employed in the MWC Tournament against New Mexico.
Confirming My Thoughts
After watching the Gonzaga game, BYU has what it takes to slay this SEC "giant." They don't need to be perfect, they don't need to shoot lights out, they don't need to get 10 steals. They just need to play solid defense and get contributions from a couple of different sources on offense. They can give up 35 points in the paint and get outrebounded by 10 and win the game. I wouldn't say a similar thing for Florida: they cannot give up 12 threes and be minus 5 in turnovers and win. If BYU loses the battles they are supposed to lose, they will still have a chance, even if there is a seemingly large disparity. If Florida loses the battles they are supposed to lose, they will lose the game. I like BYU to play well, but stay in a close game. I like the way Jimmer closes games out with 6 minutes left, where most guys wait until there are 2 or 3 minutes left before doing their thing. That is why I picked (and am sticking with it) BYU to pull away in the final 6 minutes for a 9-point win, 81-72.
After re-watching the Gonzaga game in its entirety, I noticed that true freshman Kyle Collinsworth is really coming into his own. He has been looking better in rebounding situations for a few games now. He really has found his legs again and is skying to control the defensive glass. Against the Zags, he looked comfortable getting to the rim, he looked smooth on his free throws, and he seemed right at home putting the ball on the floor and playing the point. BYU could use a little help in all facets. Without a true post player (no, James Anderson does not count), they need Collinsworth to have confidence around the rim to score points and draw fouls, and then convert at the line. His ability to handle the ball for a few possessions in a row can take pressure off of Jimmer and free him up for some of his off-the-ball magic (which is very underrated!). Collinsworth has found a way to get back to his mid-season form. And just at the right time too.
Zoning Up
BYU incorporates several different strategies within its 2-3 zone, based on the opponent's strengths. What BYU was able to do against Gonzaga should work even better against Florida. The weak-side defenders were really cheating down low to help on the bigger interior players for the Zags. Gonzaga was occasionally able to use that to hit open threes with a skip pass or by going inside-out. Florida has better passers in the post, but worse shooters on the outside. Perhaps a similar strategy of really making a concerted effort to clog the middle will help the Cougars. Florida may be able to hit threes and make BYU pay: but I'd much rather make Florida beat me using one of their weaknesses than I would letting them go to one of their strengths.
With that said, whatever defensive strategies Coach Rose comes up with seem to turn to gold (with the exception of the first two games against New Mexico). I would expect to see BYU give Macklin a difficult time getting touches and good looks by incorporating more of a Gonzaga-style 2-3 zone than the one BYU employed in the MWC Tournament against New Mexico.
Confirming My Thoughts
After watching the Gonzaga game, BYU has what it takes to slay this SEC "giant." They don't need to be perfect, they don't need to shoot lights out, they don't need to get 10 steals. They just need to play solid defense and get contributions from a couple of different sources on offense. They can give up 35 points in the paint and get outrebounded by 10 and win the game. I wouldn't say a similar thing for Florida: they cannot give up 12 threes and be minus 5 in turnovers and win. If BYU loses the battles they are supposed to lose, they will still have a chance, even if there is a seemingly large disparity. If Florida loses the battles they are supposed to lose, they will lose the game. I like BYU to play well, but stay in a close game. I like the way Jimmer closes games out with 6 minutes left, where most guys wait until there are 2 or 3 minutes left before doing their thing. That is why I picked (and am sticking with it) BYU to pull away in the final 6 minutes for a 9-point win, 81-72.
BYU-Florida Preview, 3/24/2011
Sorry for a bit of a prolonged absence, I've spent a lot of the past few nights finalizing details for my trip to New Orleans. Of course, it all comes down to flying standby tomorrow and getting on the necessary flights, so keep your fingers crossed for me! I do have a ticket to the game, just hope I can use it!
How Sweet It Is
No player from either of these teams has played in a Sweet 16 game. For Florida, this is the 4th NCAA Tournament game for the majority of their players (Vernon Macklin has played in 7 after transferring from Georgetown, where he lost to the Stephen Curry-led Davidson team...). For Jimmer Fredette this is game 7, for Jackson Emery, Noah Hartsock, and Charles Abouo, this is game 6 (while James Anderson has dressed for 6 games). Logan Magnusson will be in his 5th game. So while no one on either of these teams has had the experience of playing in the second weekend, there is a slight experience edge to BYU. For BYU, as is well documented, this is the first taste of the Sweet 16 since 1981. Florida has recently won national championships under Billy Donovan, but not with any of these players.
What to Expect from the Gators
I've seen only 4 or 5 Florida games this year, but all of them were against NCAA Tournament teams. My initial impression is that they are not a 40-minute type of basketball team. They have their ups and downs within a game. For a shooting team like BYU, that is a great matchup for them: even if the Cougars get off to a cold start, with Florida's inconsistency in scoring the ball, they will not necessarily be out of the game. The bigger Gators are prone to foul trouble, though without inside scoring threats for BYU, that may not be an issue, unless Jimmer, Abouo, and Collinsworth are able to penetrate and get to the rim and draw contact. But they have more quality size and depth on the frontline than BYU, so it may not matter unless 2 of the 3 main guys get in foul trouble. Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus are both seniors, so they may do better at staying out of foul trouble than the freshman Patric Young.
Chandler Parsons is a solid player. He's the third-leading scorer, leading rebounder, and leading assist-man for the Florida Gators. In last year's game he grabbed a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds, plus he had 6 assists, but he also had 5 turnovers and shot pretty poorly.
Erving Walker is a great point guard, and he will undoubtedly remember the job that Jackson Emery did on him in last season's game. He is quick, can shoot from the outside, and makes decisions once he gets into the paint. With BYU playing more zone this year, keeping him out of the lane will be crucial to BYU's success. Last season he was 4-16 shooting (including 3/13 from 3-point range) and had 7 turnovers. BYU made him an outside shooter, and when he drove, they took it away from him.
Kenny Boynton is definitely a wild card. He had about the same kind of season offensively as he had last season. He seemed to be an improved defender in the games I watched (and that is using the solid job he did on Jimmer during regulation as a baseline). But he is coming off the ankle sprain, so is he going to be able to "hold" Fredette to 20-something points in 40 minutes AND score over 20 points himself? If he can do either, Florida should be happy with that, given the injury.
If Boynton isn't himself or if he reinjures his foot, Florida has the same depth issues as BYU: 3 big men and 4 guards. Florida's frontline goes 6'10" 245 (Macklin), 6'9" 245 (Young), and 6'8" 220 (Tyus). Logan Magnusson and James Anderson may not be able to get the job done, one being dramatically shorter and the other amazingly unathletic. With that said, those two guys have played BIG in several games this season, against foes that were bigger, better, faster, and more coordinated than them.
Mo's Keys to the Game
Florida
1) Limit the roles of the role players. Keep Jackson, Noah, and Rogers from getting open threes, and keep Collinsworth and Abouo from getting in the lane. If Jimmer scores 52, but everybody else combines for 15, the Gators would have to feel good about their chances.
2) Aggressively attack the BYU zone. Walker needs to penetrate and Macklin needs touches in the paint. Force BYU to double team or get them in foul trouble.
3) Hang on to the ball. If BYU forces turnovers and gets out in transition, the game will get a lot easier for the Cougars.
BYU
1) Hit open shots. Somebody is going to have open shots, whether it's Jimmer, or whichever player is left open when Jimmer gets doubled, they MUST hit.
2) Defend the paint. Florida isn't the greatest 3-point shooting team. They score on post feeds, dribble penetration, and post feeds off of dribble penetration.
3) Rebound as a team. BYU is going to lose the battle of the boards, but they cannot get demolished. They must secure a lot of defensive rebounds (and run off of it where possible). They need a half-dozen offensive rebounds. If 4 players can get 5 or more rebounds, they should be OK. This formula has worked against other teams that outmatched them on the interior (Gonzaga, SDSU, and New Mexico)
Mo's Prediction
In a high-scoring affair, I like BYU. In a low-scoring affair, I like Florida. The mental aspect of the game is going to be huge. Last season, BYU didn't have the confidence that they could win the game. This year, they will. But, on the flip side, BYU sounded really happy just to get to the Sweet 16, as if that was their goal. Is 5 days enough time to refocus and set the goal higher? Florida will want revenge for last season's loss. But will Florida have the confidence that they can stop Jimmer, especially if Boynton isn't 100% or if Jimmer gets out to a hot start (like he did against New Mexico in the MWC Tourney)? How will a trip to the Bayou impact Florida? BYU players will sit in their rooms and read the Book of Mormon. Florida players, well, they may have other plans. I do give a slight mental edge to Florida right now, but reserve the right to see how the teams warm up...
Vegas has this game pegged as a 76-73 win for Florida. Mo says, 81-72, BYU. Every time I expected BYU to choke so far this season, they didn't. I fully expect Florida to win this game, so why not the Cougars? Let the Jimmer Fredette-About-It Train ride on for at least one more game.
How Sweet It Is
No player from either of these teams has played in a Sweet 16 game. For Florida, this is the 4th NCAA Tournament game for the majority of their players (Vernon Macklin has played in 7 after transferring from Georgetown, where he lost to the Stephen Curry-led Davidson team...). For Jimmer Fredette this is game 7, for Jackson Emery, Noah Hartsock, and Charles Abouo, this is game 6 (while James Anderson has dressed for 6 games). Logan Magnusson will be in his 5th game. So while no one on either of these teams has had the experience of playing in the second weekend, there is a slight experience edge to BYU. For BYU, as is well documented, this is the first taste of the Sweet 16 since 1981. Florida has recently won national championships under Billy Donovan, but not with any of these players.
What to Expect from the Gators
I've seen only 4 or 5 Florida games this year, but all of them were against NCAA Tournament teams. My initial impression is that they are not a 40-minute type of basketball team. They have their ups and downs within a game. For a shooting team like BYU, that is a great matchup for them: even if the Cougars get off to a cold start, with Florida's inconsistency in scoring the ball, they will not necessarily be out of the game. The bigger Gators are prone to foul trouble, though without inside scoring threats for BYU, that may not be an issue, unless Jimmer, Abouo, and Collinsworth are able to penetrate and get to the rim and draw contact. But they have more quality size and depth on the frontline than BYU, so it may not matter unless 2 of the 3 main guys get in foul trouble. Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus are both seniors, so they may do better at staying out of foul trouble than the freshman Patric Young.
Chandler Parsons is a solid player. He's the third-leading scorer, leading rebounder, and leading assist-man for the Florida Gators. In last year's game he grabbed a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds, plus he had 6 assists, but he also had 5 turnovers and shot pretty poorly.
Erving Walker is a great point guard, and he will undoubtedly remember the job that Jackson Emery did on him in last season's game. He is quick, can shoot from the outside, and makes decisions once he gets into the paint. With BYU playing more zone this year, keeping him out of the lane will be crucial to BYU's success. Last season he was 4-16 shooting (including 3/13 from 3-point range) and had 7 turnovers. BYU made him an outside shooter, and when he drove, they took it away from him.
Kenny Boynton is definitely a wild card. He had about the same kind of season offensively as he had last season. He seemed to be an improved defender in the games I watched (and that is using the solid job he did on Jimmer during regulation as a baseline). But he is coming off the ankle sprain, so is he going to be able to "hold" Fredette to 20-something points in 40 minutes AND score over 20 points himself? If he can do either, Florida should be happy with that, given the injury.
If Boynton isn't himself or if he reinjures his foot, Florida has the same depth issues as BYU: 3 big men and 4 guards. Florida's frontline goes 6'10" 245 (Macklin), 6'9" 245 (Young), and 6'8" 220 (Tyus). Logan Magnusson and James Anderson may not be able to get the job done, one being dramatically shorter and the other amazingly unathletic. With that said, those two guys have played BIG in several games this season, against foes that were bigger, better, faster, and more coordinated than them.
Mo's Keys to the Game
Florida
1) Limit the roles of the role players. Keep Jackson, Noah, and Rogers from getting open threes, and keep Collinsworth and Abouo from getting in the lane. If Jimmer scores 52, but everybody else combines for 15, the Gators would have to feel good about their chances.
2) Aggressively attack the BYU zone. Walker needs to penetrate and Macklin needs touches in the paint. Force BYU to double team or get them in foul trouble.
3) Hang on to the ball. If BYU forces turnovers and gets out in transition, the game will get a lot easier for the Cougars.
BYU
1) Hit open shots. Somebody is going to have open shots, whether it's Jimmer, or whichever player is left open when Jimmer gets doubled, they MUST hit.
2) Defend the paint. Florida isn't the greatest 3-point shooting team. They score on post feeds, dribble penetration, and post feeds off of dribble penetration.
3) Rebound as a team. BYU is going to lose the battle of the boards, but they cannot get demolished. They must secure a lot of defensive rebounds (and run off of it where possible). They need a half-dozen offensive rebounds. If 4 players can get 5 or more rebounds, they should be OK. This formula has worked against other teams that outmatched them on the interior (Gonzaga, SDSU, and New Mexico)
Mo's Prediction
In a high-scoring affair, I like BYU. In a low-scoring affair, I like Florida. The mental aspect of the game is going to be huge. Last season, BYU didn't have the confidence that they could win the game. This year, they will. But, on the flip side, BYU sounded really happy just to get to the Sweet 16, as if that was their goal. Is 5 days enough time to refocus and set the goal higher? Florida will want revenge for last season's loss. But will Florida have the confidence that they can stop Jimmer, especially if Boynton isn't 100% or if Jimmer gets out to a hot start (like he did against New Mexico in the MWC Tourney)? How will a trip to the Bayou impact Florida? BYU players will sit in their rooms and read the Book of Mormon. Florida players, well, they may have other plans. I do give a slight mental edge to Florida right now, but reserve the right to see how the teams warm up...
Vegas has this game pegged as a 76-73 win for Florida. Mo says, 81-72, BYU. Every time I expected BYU to choke so far this season, they didn't. I fully expect Florida to win this game, so why not the Cougars? Let the Jimmer Fredette-About-It Train ride on for at least one more game.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
BYU is a really good team...
Wow! That is about all you can say about it. That Gonzaga team was a really good team. They looked amazing against St. John's. They beat St. Mary's twice down the stretch of the season. They were on a roll, on a 10-game winning streak outrebounding opponents by over 10 boards/game during that stretch. St. John's Coach Steve Lavin said they were a Final Four-type team, and nobody disagreed in the slightest, especially after watching them dismantle what was thought to be a good Johnnie's team. Nobody gave BYU a chance in the game (except for Mo...and whatever "idiot" picked them to win by more than 10). And BYU took it to them, winning ultimately by 22 points. Everybody stepped up. Everybody played well. Scoring, rebounding, defense. Wow!
Friday, March 18, 2011
Gonzaga-BYU Preview
How They Got Here
BYU got an at-large bid, after compiling a 30-4 record, including a share of the MWC Regular Season Championship. They then beat 14-seeded, and second-time in a row in the NCAA Tournament, Wofford by 8, 74-66. They won the game by valuing the basketball (only 10 turnovers), sharing the basketball (14 assists on 24 baskets), and great team rebounding (4 players with 5 or more rebounds).
Gonzaga got an automatic bid by beating St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference Tournament. They then beat 6-seeded St. John's by 15, 86-71, and it wasn't that close. They won by dominating the glass (41 rebounds to 18 by St. John's), making the extra pass (9-15 on threes, 20 assists), and by defending well without fouling (only 15 team fouls).
How They'll Get Past Here
The formula for BYU is simple: makes shots and score points. BYU will find it difficult to beat Gonzaga shooting 39.3% from the field. They will need to do better than making only 6 threes, especially in 22 attempts. They probably will need more than 74 points. They will probably need more than 10 fast break points. Making more shots, along with getting some offensive rebounds and they will win easily. The reason Gonzaga dominated St. John's on the glass was getting 29 defensive rebounds to just 4 offensive rebounds for St. John's. That ratio needs to be a lot closer to 3:1 than 7:1 for BYU to have a chance, unless they decide to shoot 60%, then it won't matter...
Defensively, they need Noah Hartsock to stay out of foul trouble. Noah is a solid defender, with decent size, good agility, and good rebounding sense. The dropoff to James Anderson is ridiculous, and Logan Magnusson just isn't big enough to do anything against a guy with 6 inches and 40 pounds on him. Hartsock can also make Gonzaga pay on the offensive end, as Sacre has to guard him too. They'll need 32-34 minutes out of Hartsock.
Gonzaga offensively needs to exercise good shot selection like they did against St. John's. They made the extra pass, giving up a good shot for a better shot. They pushed the tempo when they had numbers, but they didn't force what wasn't there. They controlled the pace of the game from start to finish (which is easy to do when you grab every rebound on the other end). All of these things together allowed them to shoot 54% from the field, 60% from three. Anything close to those numbers again and it'll be on to the Sweet 16.
Defensively, if they do not allow second chance opportunities, they should be fine. They might be better served to play BYU straight up, and let Jimmer get his and keep everyone else in check. They have a human eraser under the basket in Sacre, so if they take Jimmer's outside shot away, make him drive into the 7-footer, while staying home on shooters, they will stifle BYU. Unless Jimmer gets Sacre in foul trouble...
Mo Predicts
BYU will play better than they did against Wofford. Gonzaga will play worse than they did against St. John's. That means: the fans will get a good game. If either Jackson Emery or Stephen Rogers can give BYU three 3-pointers (or five combined between them), with aggressive driving by Collinsworth and Abouo, BYU will be tough to stop. I foresee this game playing at BYU's tempo though. If the game is close in the last 7 minutes, BYU just has a knack for making the plays that set them up down the stretch. Kemba Walker may be the guy you want on your team in the last minute, but I'll take Jimmer the last 6 minutes any day. He does his work then so he doesn't have to hit the big shot at the end. As thin as BYU is, as fatigued as they will be, if they can stay within 2-4 points of Gonzaga, I like Jimmer and the Cougars to have a late surge and win the game. BYU 79. Gonzaga 73. Jimmer scores 41.
BYU got an at-large bid, after compiling a 30-4 record, including a share of the MWC Regular Season Championship. They then beat 14-seeded, and second-time in a row in the NCAA Tournament, Wofford by 8, 74-66. They won the game by valuing the basketball (only 10 turnovers), sharing the basketball (14 assists on 24 baskets), and great team rebounding (4 players with 5 or more rebounds).
Gonzaga got an automatic bid by beating St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference Tournament. They then beat 6-seeded St. John's by 15, 86-71, and it wasn't that close. They won by dominating the glass (41 rebounds to 18 by St. John's), making the extra pass (9-15 on threes, 20 assists), and by defending well without fouling (only 15 team fouls).
How They'll Get Past Here
The formula for BYU is simple: makes shots and score points. BYU will find it difficult to beat Gonzaga shooting 39.3% from the field. They will need to do better than making only 6 threes, especially in 22 attempts. They probably will need more than 74 points. They will probably need more than 10 fast break points. Making more shots, along with getting some offensive rebounds and they will win easily. The reason Gonzaga dominated St. John's on the glass was getting 29 defensive rebounds to just 4 offensive rebounds for St. John's. That ratio needs to be a lot closer to 3:1 than 7:1 for BYU to have a chance, unless they decide to shoot 60%, then it won't matter...
Defensively, they need Noah Hartsock to stay out of foul trouble. Noah is a solid defender, with decent size, good agility, and good rebounding sense. The dropoff to James Anderson is ridiculous, and Logan Magnusson just isn't big enough to do anything against a guy with 6 inches and 40 pounds on him. Hartsock can also make Gonzaga pay on the offensive end, as Sacre has to guard him too. They'll need 32-34 minutes out of Hartsock.
Gonzaga offensively needs to exercise good shot selection like they did against St. John's. They made the extra pass, giving up a good shot for a better shot. They pushed the tempo when they had numbers, but they didn't force what wasn't there. They controlled the pace of the game from start to finish (which is easy to do when you grab every rebound on the other end). All of these things together allowed them to shoot 54% from the field, 60% from three. Anything close to those numbers again and it'll be on to the Sweet 16.
Defensively, if they do not allow second chance opportunities, they should be fine. They might be better served to play BYU straight up, and let Jimmer get his and keep everyone else in check. They have a human eraser under the basket in Sacre, so if they take Jimmer's outside shot away, make him drive into the 7-footer, while staying home on shooters, they will stifle BYU. Unless Jimmer gets Sacre in foul trouble...
Mo Predicts
BYU will play better than they did against Wofford. Gonzaga will play worse than they did against St. John's. That means: the fans will get a good game. If either Jackson Emery or Stephen Rogers can give BYU three 3-pointers (or five combined between them), with aggressive driving by Collinsworth and Abouo, BYU will be tough to stop. I foresee this game playing at BYU's tempo though. If the game is close in the last 7 minutes, BYU just has a knack for making the plays that set them up down the stretch. Kemba Walker may be the guy you want on your team in the last minute, but I'll take Jimmer the last 6 minutes any day. He does his work then so he doesn't have to hit the big shot at the end. As thin as BYU is, as fatigued as they will be, if they can stay within 2-4 points of Gonzaga, I like Jimmer and the Cougars to have a late surge and win the game. BYU 79. Gonzaga 73. Jimmer scores 41.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Mo's Predictions, NCAA Tournament-style
East
Round of 32
Ohio State over Villanova
West Virginia over Kentucky
Xavier over Syracuse
Washington over North Carolina
Sweet 16
Xavier over Washington
Ohio State over West Virginia
Elite Eight
Ohio State over Xavier to get into Final Four
West
Round of 32
Duke over Tennessee
Arizona over Texas (just as easily Memphis over Oakland)
Missouri over Connecticut (not ready to pull the trigger on Bucknell)
SDSU over Temple
Sweet 16
Duke over Arizona
SDSU over Missouri
Elite Eight
Duke over SDSU
Southwest
Round of 32
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over VCU
Notre Dame over Texas A&M
Sweet 16
Louisville over Kansas
Purdue over Notre Dame
Elite Eight
Purdue over Louisville
Southeast
Round of 32
Pittsburgh over Butler
Wisconsin over Utah State (or is it K-State over Belmont)
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over UCLA (or Michigan State over Florida...can't decide!)
Sweet 16
Wisconsin (or K-State) over Pittsburgh
Florida over BYU (or BYU over Michigan State...grrr!)
Elite Eight
Florida over Wisconsin (or Wisconsin/K-State over BYU, I hate this bracket because of freaking Tom Izzo: he decides how this turns out! I think...)
Final Four
Duke over Ohio State
Purdue over Florida/Wisconsin/K-State
Championship Game
Purdue over Duke
Now that I've thrown this out there, watch Purdue get upset by St. Peter's, Duke lose to Texas, and UCLA get to the Final Four! My champion bounced early, my second round exiting Longhorns determining the West, and Tom Izzo have ZERO impact on the NCAA Tournament...
Round of 32
Ohio State over Villanova
West Virginia over Kentucky
Xavier over Syracuse
Washington over North Carolina
Sweet 16
Xavier over Washington
Ohio State over West Virginia
Elite Eight
Ohio State over Xavier to get into Final Four
West
Round of 32
Duke over Tennessee
Arizona over Texas (just as easily Memphis over Oakland)
Missouri over Connecticut (not ready to pull the trigger on Bucknell)
SDSU over Temple
Sweet 16
Duke over Arizona
SDSU over Missouri
Elite Eight
Duke over SDSU
Southwest
Round of 32
Kansas over UNLV
Louisville over Richmond
Purdue over VCU
Notre Dame over Texas A&M
Sweet 16
Louisville over Kansas
Purdue over Notre Dame
Elite Eight
Purdue over Louisville
Southeast
Round of 32
Pittsburgh over Butler
Wisconsin over Utah State (or is it K-State over Belmont)
BYU over Gonzaga
Florida over UCLA (or Michigan State over Florida...can't decide!)
Sweet 16
Wisconsin (or K-State) over Pittsburgh
Florida over BYU (or BYU over Michigan State...grrr!)
Elite Eight
Florida over Wisconsin (or Wisconsin/K-State over BYU, I hate this bracket because of freaking Tom Izzo: he decides how this turns out! I think...)
Final Four
Duke over Ohio State
Purdue over Florida/Wisconsin/K-State
Championship Game
Purdue over Duke
Now that I've thrown this out there, watch Purdue get upset by St. Peter's, Duke lose to Texas, and UCLA get to the Final Four! My champion bounced early, my second round exiting Longhorns determining the West, and Tom Izzo have ZERO impact on the NCAA Tournament...
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Quick Diagnostics on Wofford (for Shane)
Wofford and BYU are actually fairly similar. They play a tight 7-man rotation. They are even more undersized than the Cougars and rely on hustle and tenacity. They have a guy pegged as the Jackson Emery-like defensive stopper (Jamar Diggs). They have a Brandon Davies-like player in the post (Noah Dahlman), who isn't the biggest guy or the most physical, but he plays smart and he knows his limitations and how to exploit his advantages. He is a much more prolific scorer than Davies is now, but Dahlman is a senior, and Davies, only a sophomore, may become that over the course of the next two years.
The 7-man rotations look like this:
6'6" 235 pounds vs. 6'8" 230
6'6" 228 pounds vs. 6'6" 210
6'6" 215 pounds vs. 6'6" 210
6'6" 200 pounds vs. 6'8" 195
6'2" 180 pounds vs. 6'5" 215
6'1" 190 pounds vs. 6'3" 190
6'0" 180 pounds vs. 6'2" 195
Wofford is a little beefier on the top and a little smaller on the bottom. What BYU lacks in thickness, it makes up for in height. Physically-speaking, this is certainly going to be BYU's best draw in any tournament game. The further they go, the worse it will get for them.
Wofford shoots at an amazingly high percentage, and they score a lot of points. They are weak in rebounding, but strong in defense. While it's tough to trust the stats, as they played much inferior competition, it can show you tendencies.
Wofford played in the tournament last season and played Wisconsin tough. They will not be shell-shocked. They played 4 NCAA Tournament teams this season, going 1-3. They lost by 8 at 12-seed Clemson, lost by 15 on a neutral court to 6-seed Georgetown, they lost by 4 in triple OT at 6-seed Xavier, and beat 8-seed George Mason in OT on a neutral court. They will not be intimidated. They know they can play with the Cougars.
As far as the game goes, BYU is probably going to do one of two things: shoot poorly and anything can happen in a tight game or shoot lights out and win by 20. This game is all about how BYU plays on offense, Wofford will not be able to overcome a good shooting night by BYU. If BYU is scratching and clawing its way through, then Wofford may be the first 14 to get the job done this tournament. With that said, I don't think Jimmer will be denied Thursday night in Denver. He will win the game by himself if he has to. He will draw contact/fouls, and test that 7-man rotation of the Wofford Boston Terriers. He will get out and run in transition and wear those sea-level boys out. I'll call it a tight contest at halftime, but BYU steps on the gas in the second half in a relatively high-scoring affair. Call it 80-70 for the BYU Cougars.
How did I do, Shane?
The 7-man rotations look like this:
6'6" 235 pounds vs. 6'8" 230
6'6" 228 pounds vs. 6'6" 210
6'6" 215 pounds vs. 6'6" 210
6'6" 200 pounds vs. 6'8" 195
6'2" 180 pounds vs. 6'5" 215
6'1" 190 pounds vs. 6'3" 190
6'0" 180 pounds vs. 6'2" 195
Wofford is a little beefier on the top and a little smaller on the bottom. What BYU lacks in thickness, it makes up for in height. Physically-speaking, this is certainly going to be BYU's best draw in any tournament game. The further they go, the worse it will get for them.
Wofford shoots at an amazingly high percentage, and they score a lot of points. They are weak in rebounding, but strong in defense. While it's tough to trust the stats, as they played much inferior competition, it can show you tendencies.
Wofford played in the tournament last season and played Wisconsin tough. They will not be shell-shocked. They played 4 NCAA Tournament teams this season, going 1-3. They lost by 8 at 12-seed Clemson, lost by 15 on a neutral court to 6-seed Georgetown, they lost by 4 in triple OT at 6-seed Xavier, and beat 8-seed George Mason in OT on a neutral court. They will not be intimidated. They know they can play with the Cougars.
As far as the game goes, BYU is probably going to do one of two things: shoot poorly and anything can happen in a tight game or shoot lights out and win by 20. This game is all about how BYU plays on offense, Wofford will not be able to overcome a good shooting night by BYU. If BYU is scratching and clawing its way through, then Wofford may be the first 14 to get the job done this tournament. With that said, I don't think Jimmer will be denied Thursday night in Denver. He will win the game by himself if he has to. He will draw contact/fouls, and test that 7-man rotation of the Wofford Boston Terriers. He will get out and run in transition and wear those sea-level boys out. I'll call it a tight contest at halftime, but BYU steps on the gas in the second half in a relatively high-scoring affair. Call it 80-70 for the BYU Cougars.
How did I do, Shane?
Thoughts From BYU's Home For The Week: Denver
Well, I had the opportunity to attend an open to the public practice for BYU. It wasn't much, more of a glorified shoot-around. But I did take a paper and pen to jot a few things down. Here are some thoughts.
Who Is A Big?
There was a particular shooting drill where the guards went to one side and the forwards to the others. Kyle Collinsworth and Brock Zylstra went with the bigs. Stephen Rogers went with the guards. Kyle plays the 4 now, so I suppose that makes same sense. He needs more work on his inside game (which he actually uses) than his outside (which he never uses, lacks confidence, he can shoot though). I imagine Zylstra just went to even the numbers out? Rogers going with the guards makes sense. Despite being the 3rd tallest man on the active roster, he does most of his scoring from the outside, so that is where he needs to be. Maybe a useless observation, but one that I made.
The Looks For Next Season
Redshirt PG Anson Winder looks chubby. His shot looks as flat as Zylstra's. Neither of them could blame fatigue for that. Nick Martineau has a very sweet, smooth shot. He definitely doesn't have Jimmer's range, but once he got warmed up, he was hitting more threes than anyone not named Jimmer.
The Role Players
The recent shooting woes of Stephen Rogers and Jackson Emery have been much discussed by Cougar Nation. Everybody knows they are struggling of late. What caught me by surprise: they know it too. Rogers' body language after missing a shot was not good. It was easy to tell he was not confident when he put the ball up and shrugged his shoulders a bit, looking disgusted, as he saw it clang. Jackson Emery wasn't quite as obvious with his frustration. Anyone who has spent significant time in a gym shooting hoops knows the drill: when you aren't shooting well, you grab a rebound, dribble it around for a minute, talking to yourself. Then you gather yourself, take your time, and shoot again. If you miss that you grab the rebound, move in a couple of steps and repeat. Jackson did that several times. He knows he's struggling. So does Rogers. If they miss shots early in the game, they might be done for the duration. Judging by what I saw, people should proceed picking BYU with caution.
Other Observations
Zylstra loves to play to the crowd: he kept trying to find ways to get the "biggest" cheers, even while Jimmer was effortlessly chucking in 27 footers. He threw down a couple of nice dunks, which was about the only time he put the ball in the hoop: he is a terrible shooter. Jimmer seriously does not look like he puts any effort in. He shoots the ball from 25 feet away like it's a 10-foot jump shot. Abouo is just as inconsistent shooting in practice as he is in games. He had 5 or 6 in a row that were just beautiful: good rotation, good arc, straight, and swished. Then he had 5 or 6 that clanged off the side of the rim, wobbling through the air, with the brightest spot being it would be easy to get an offensive rebound off of it bouncing so awkwardly. Noah Hartsock is a lot more agile than I thought he would be in person. Also, he doesn't dunk when he is wide open in practice, so do not expect him to do it in games. James Anderson has no body control. It just amazes me. Zero control. When he tries to change direction it looks like his bones turn into jelly and his body just kind of flubs around.
Who Else Was There?
Brandon Davies was there on the bench. Matt Carlino was not. BYU sports guys Greg Wrubell, Dick Harmon, Darnell Dickson, and Jason Franchuk were all there courtside: Franchuk is skinnier than I thought, Harmon was fatter than I remember. Diamond Leung of ESPN.com was there: he is as short as you think he is! Marius Payton of the Mtn. Network was there. Craig "The Hair" Thompson was taking in the sights as well. What a doofus!
So, I have my concerns about Jackson and Stephen. Their heads aren't right and if they miss some shots, they might lose all confidence. But as far as not looking the part, which is everyone's criticism of BYU: St. John's came out right after BYU finished. They look more athletic, but they don't look like basketball players. It looked like a bunch of dudes I wouldn't want to play football with, but wouldn't mind stepping out on the court with. So BYU definitely shouldn't be intimidated by them! They had a big, black giant come out with tats looking like a bad dude, must have been 6'10" and 250 pounds and cut. Just a very thick dude. He has having more trouble walking without tripping than Anderson does. He had to do every drill twice until he was excused from it while everyone else was one and done in getting it right. Nobody else on the team looked any bigger than Hartsock. I hope they can get past Gonzaga because BYU could wipe the floor with them! (I have Gonzaga picked in my bracket and felt justified after watching them warm up)
Who Is A Big?
There was a particular shooting drill where the guards went to one side and the forwards to the others. Kyle Collinsworth and Brock Zylstra went with the bigs. Stephen Rogers went with the guards. Kyle plays the 4 now, so I suppose that makes same sense. He needs more work on his inside game (which he actually uses) than his outside (which he never uses, lacks confidence, he can shoot though). I imagine Zylstra just went to even the numbers out? Rogers going with the guards makes sense. Despite being the 3rd tallest man on the active roster, he does most of his scoring from the outside, so that is where he needs to be. Maybe a useless observation, but one that I made.
The Looks For Next Season
Redshirt PG Anson Winder looks chubby. His shot looks as flat as Zylstra's. Neither of them could blame fatigue for that. Nick Martineau has a very sweet, smooth shot. He definitely doesn't have Jimmer's range, but once he got warmed up, he was hitting more threes than anyone not named Jimmer.
The Role Players
The recent shooting woes of Stephen Rogers and Jackson Emery have been much discussed by Cougar Nation. Everybody knows they are struggling of late. What caught me by surprise: they know it too. Rogers' body language after missing a shot was not good. It was easy to tell he was not confident when he put the ball up and shrugged his shoulders a bit, looking disgusted, as he saw it clang. Jackson Emery wasn't quite as obvious with his frustration. Anyone who has spent significant time in a gym shooting hoops knows the drill: when you aren't shooting well, you grab a rebound, dribble it around for a minute, talking to yourself. Then you gather yourself, take your time, and shoot again. If you miss that you grab the rebound, move in a couple of steps and repeat. Jackson did that several times. He knows he's struggling. So does Rogers. If they miss shots early in the game, they might be done for the duration. Judging by what I saw, people should proceed picking BYU with caution.
Other Observations
Zylstra loves to play to the crowd: he kept trying to find ways to get the "biggest" cheers, even while Jimmer was effortlessly chucking in 27 footers. He threw down a couple of nice dunks, which was about the only time he put the ball in the hoop: he is a terrible shooter. Jimmer seriously does not look like he puts any effort in. He shoots the ball from 25 feet away like it's a 10-foot jump shot. Abouo is just as inconsistent shooting in practice as he is in games. He had 5 or 6 in a row that were just beautiful: good rotation, good arc, straight, and swished. Then he had 5 or 6 that clanged off the side of the rim, wobbling through the air, with the brightest spot being it would be easy to get an offensive rebound off of it bouncing so awkwardly. Noah Hartsock is a lot more agile than I thought he would be in person. Also, he doesn't dunk when he is wide open in practice, so do not expect him to do it in games. James Anderson has no body control. It just amazes me. Zero control. When he tries to change direction it looks like his bones turn into jelly and his body just kind of flubs around.
Who Else Was There?
Brandon Davies was there on the bench. Matt Carlino was not. BYU sports guys Greg Wrubell, Dick Harmon, Darnell Dickson, and Jason Franchuk were all there courtside: Franchuk is skinnier than I thought, Harmon was fatter than I remember. Diamond Leung of ESPN.com was there: he is as short as you think he is! Marius Payton of the Mtn. Network was there. Craig "The Hair" Thompson was taking in the sights as well. What a doofus!
So, I have my concerns about Jackson and Stephen. Their heads aren't right and if they miss some shots, they might lose all confidence. But as far as not looking the part, which is everyone's criticism of BYU: St. John's came out right after BYU finished. They look more athletic, but they don't look like basketball players. It looked like a bunch of dudes I wouldn't want to play football with, but wouldn't mind stepping out on the court with. So BYU definitely shouldn't be intimidated by them! They had a big, black giant come out with tats looking like a bad dude, must have been 6'10" and 250 pounds and cut. Just a very thick dude. He has having more trouble walking without tripping than Anderson does. He had to do every drill twice until he was excused from it while everyone else was one and done in getting it right. Nobody else on the team looked any bigger than Hartsock. I hope they can get past Gonzaga because BYU could wipe the floor with them! (I have Gonzaga picked in my bracket and felt justified after watching them warm up)
Monday, March 14, 2011
Picking A Bracket
Upsets Don't Matter
A lot of people spend a lot of time looking for those 5/12, 6/11 games where an upset could happen. They study up on 13 and 14-seeds to see if any of them have a chance at the crazy big upset. It's pretty cool to see a first round upset that you picked actually go down the way you said. It's even cooler when you pull the same magic out and your Cinderella makes it to the Sweet 16. In most bracket groups, you are awarded 3 points for taking that risk and picking correctly (1 point for 1st round, 2 points for 2nd) and 0 points if your Cinderella stayed out after Midnight in Round 1. Picking a single Elite Eight team correct is typically worth more getting your Cinderella into the Sweet 16. Picking a Final Four team is worth even more than that. Picking Cinderellas is a lot of fun. I have 4 or 5 of them in the Sweet 16 in my bracket every year. I love doing it. But it isn't going to win your bracket challenge. Trust me!
Final Four is Crucial
The person that wins usually does three things: picks the Champion, gets 2 or 3 Final Four teams correct (usually 3, but can get away with 2 if they have a less popular champion that actually pulls it off), and gets 5-7 of the Elite Eight teams correct. Rare is the league where the person who got the most winners right actually gets the most points. In fact, last season I participated in a group where the person with the most winners picked finished behind 25% of the group. Picking well in the first round only helps to break ties with people that picked the same Final Four grouping as you. So don't spend too much time researching who the next Davidson is. Don't worry if there is going to be a George Mason this year that might mess your bracket up (nobody picks that team anyway so you'll miss the points along with everyone else). You are more likely to guess wrong if you go too far out on a limb. Your best bet for the Final Four is to stick with the proven choices: 1-5 seeds. The Elite Eight can expand out a little bit, perhaps as high as an 8-seed, with an occasional 10 or 11 seed. Not a good chance with 9-seeds though historically...they may beat the 8's more than half the time, but they beat the 1's with very limited frequency, much less so than the 8's do.
Conference Tourneys Don't Matter
Do not put much stock into Conference Tournaments (the Selection Committee obviously doesn't, unless it HELPS Big Ten teams). Very frequently teams from Big 6 conferences that did well in conference tourneys are the first to get upset by upstarts from smaller schools in early rounds. On occasion, the teams that get bounced early in their tournaments make sustained runs in the NCAA Tournament. I'm not saying sell on UConn or buy into Pitt or Purdue. I'm just saying conference tournaments are not good estimators of the NCAA Tournament. In a conference tournament, you know your opponent intimately and have prepared for them in recruiting and in the off-season. The NCAA Tournament is much more neutral than conference tournaments and are more impacted by motivation, location, time zone, tip-off time, match-ups, distractions, and travel distances.
Eliminate Long Shots
East
In the East, anybody seeded below 5 is a long shot. If you picked Xavier or Washington, you might be the smartest person on the planet and in rare company if it happens. But you might miss out on the points that everyone else is getting for correctly picking Ohio State, North Carolina, or Kentucky. I do not believe Syracuse or West Virginia are serious threats here.
West
In the West, it probably boils down to Duke, SDSU, and Texas. I don't buy into SDSU's ability to score enough to go through to the Final Four, but given that they will probably have what should be a simple path to the Elite Eight, all they need to do is beat Duke or Texas. Arizona has to survive Memphis, Texas, and Duke? No chance. Connecticut is prime for a letdown, and if it doesn't happen against Bucknell, it very well may in the next round. Besides, they overachieved all year, faltered down the stretch, before overachieving again in the Big East Tourney. Time to for another falter, if Kemba Walker is capable of faltering with all the marbles on the line.
Southwest
In the Southwest, Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Louisville are all legitimate contenders. Vandy and Georgetown will be lucky to get out of the first round. A&M is a bit of a dark horse, being so under-seeded, but they'd have to get through Notre Dame, Purdue, and then Kansas or Louisville? They aren't THAT under-seeded.
Southeast
The Southeast is by far the most wide open bracket. Pitt is the most over-rated of the 1-seeds. [Many will argue and say Duke, but I disagree. For a Committee that punished Colorado for its lousy non-conference schedule, they sure didn't let that deter them from giving Pitt a 1-seed (not comparing Pitt and Colorado's non-conference schedule, just saying that neither team REALLY challenged itself).] Florida is over-seeded at 2, BYU without Davies is not a 3-seed even with The Jimmer, Wisconsin lost its last game after scoring only 33 points, Kansas State looked like they might miss the field a month ago and lost to an NIT team THREE TIMES this season, St. John's best wins came at home and they still racked up 11 losses, UCLA's only good wins came in Southern California, Butler had 5 conference losses in a 1-bid league, and Michigan State was dead in the water just 3 weeks ago and still lost 14 games, including a double-digit loss to (14-loss) Penn State just a few days ago, even with an amazing run down the stretch. All of them have flaws that could keep them out of the Final Four. It also means all of them are capable of getting there.
To counter the flaws of the 1-10 seeds (Old Dominion was omitted on purpose as I have no faith in 9 seeds past Round 1), they have one of the most battle-tested 11 seeds in Gonzaga, who also comes in with the most dominant Center in the Region. They have a 12 and 13 seed that both won 30 games and have tournament experience in Utah State and Belmont. So any flawed team could beat any other flawed team and get to the Final Four. Or any of them (excluding Pitt and Florida) could lose their first round game. Really, I don't know which longshots to eliminate here. Could Butler beat Pitt in a one-game situation? Yes. Could Kansas State take down the Beast from the Big East as well? The Beard says so, and I fear the beard. Could Wisconsin defend their way through anybody on their half of the bracket? Absolutely. Same with St. John's, Gonzaga, BYU, UCLA, and Michigan State (though with most of that particular group it would be 'outscore' instead of 'defend'). But they could also all lose in the first round! Pitt is the "safest" choice. But in a Region where everybody is a long shot, it means that no one is a sure thing.
A lot of people spend a lot of time looking for those 5/12, 6/11 games where an upset could happen. They study up on 13 and 14-seeds to see if any of them have a chance at the crazy big upset. It's pretty cool to see a first round upset that you picked actually go down the way you said. It's even cooler when you pull the same magic out and your Cinderella makes it to the Sweet 16. In most bracket groups, you are awarded 3 points for taking that risk and picking correctly (1 point for 1st round, 2 points for 2nd) and 0 points if your Cinderella stayed out after Midnight in Round 1. Picking a single Elite Eight team correct is typically worth more getting your Cinderella into the Sweet 16. Picking a Final Four team is worth even more than that. Picking Cinderellas is a lot of fun. I have 4 or 5 of them in the Sweet 16 in my bracket every year. I love doing it. But it isn't going to win your bracket challenge. Trust me!
Final Four is Crucial
The person that wins usually does three things: picks the Champion, gets 2 or 3 Final Four teams correct (usually 3, but can get away with 2 if they have a less popular champion that actually pulls it off), and gets 5-7 of the Elite Eight teams correct. Rare is the league where the person who got the most winners right actually gets the most points. In fact, last season I participated in a group where the person with the most winners picked finished behind 25% of the group. Picking well in the first round only helps to break ties with people that picked the same Final Four grouping as you. So don't spend too much time researching who the next Davidson is. Don't worry if there is going to be a George Mason this year that might mess your bracket up (nobody picks that team anyway so you'll miss the points along with everyone else). You are more likely to guess wrong if you go too far out on a limb. Your best bet for the Final Four is to stick with the proven choices: 1-5 seeds. The Elite Eight can expand out a little bit, perhaps as high as an 8-seed, with an occasional 10 or 11 seed. Not a good chance with 9-seeds though historically...they may beat the 8's more than half the time, but they beat the 1's with very limited frequency, much less so than the 8's do.
Conference Tourneys Don't Matter
Do not put much stock into Conference Tournaments (the Selection Committee obviously doesn't, unless it HELPS Big Ten teams). Very frequently teams from Big 6 conferences that did well in conference tourneys are the first to get upset by upstarts from smaller schools in early rounds. On occasion, the teams that get bounced early in their tournaments make sustained runs in the NCAA Tournament. I'm not saying sell on UConn or buy into Pitt or Purdue. I'm just saying conference tournaments are not good estimators of the NCAA Tournament. In a conference tournament, you know your opponent intimately and have prepared for them in recruiting and in the off-season. The NCAA Tournament is much more neutral than conference tournaments and are more impacted by motivation, location, time zone, tip-off time, match-ups, distractions, and travel distances.
Eliminate Long Shots
East
In the East, anybody seeded below 5 is a long shot. If you picked Xavier or Washington, you might be the smartest person on the planet and in rare company if it happens. But you might miss out on the points that everyone else is getting for correctly picking Ohio State, North Carolina, or Kentucky. I do not believe Syracuse or West Virginia are serious threats here.
West
In the West, it probably boils down to Duke, SDSU, and Texas. I don't buy into SDSU's ability to score enough to go through to the Final Four, but given that they will probably have what should be a simple path to the Elite Eight, all they need to do is beat Duke or Texas. Arizona has to survive Memphis, Texas, and Duke? No chance. Connecticut is prime for a letdown, and if it doesn't happen against Bucknell, it very well may in the next round. Besides, they overachieved all year, faltered down the stretch, before overachieving again in the Big East Tourney. Time to for another falter, if Kemba Walker is capable of faltering with all the marbles on the line.
Southwest
In the Southwest, Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Louisville are all legitimate contenders. Vandy and Georgetown will be lucky to get out of the first round. A&M is a bit of a dark horse, being so under-seeded, but they'd have to get through Notre Dame, Purdue, and then Kansas or Louisville? They aren't THAT under-seeded.
Southeast
The Southeast is by far the most wide open bracket. Pitt is the most over-rated of the 1-seeds. [Many will argue and say Duke, but I disagree. For a Committee that punished Colorado for its lousy non-conference schedule, they sure didn't let that deter them from giving Pitt a 1-seed (not comparing Pitt and Colorado's non-conference schedule, just saying that neither team REALLY challenged itself).] Florida is over-seeded at 2, BYU without Davies is not a 3-seed even with The Jimmer, Wisconsin lost its last game after scoring only 33 points, Kansas State looked like they might miss the field a month ago and lost to an NIT team THREE TIMES this season, St. John's best wins came at home and they still racked up 11 losses, UCLA's only good wins came in Southern California, Butler had 5 conference losses in a 1-bid league, and Michigan State was dead in the water just 3 weeks ago and still lost 14 games, including a double-digit loss to (14-loss) Penn State just a few days ago, even with an amazing run down the stretch. All of them have flaws that could keep them out of the Final Four. It also means all of them are capable of getting there.
To counter the flaws of the 1-10 seeds (Old Dominion was omitted on purpose as I have no faith in 9 seeds past Round 1), they have one of the most battle-tested 11 seeds in Gonzaga, who also comes in with the most dominant Center in the Region. They have a 12 and 13 seed that both won 30 games and have tournament experience in Utah State and Belmont. So any flawed team could beat any other flawed team and get to the Final Four. Or any of them (excluding Pitt and Florida) could lose their first round game. Really, I don't know which longshots to eliminate here. Could Butler beat Pitt in a one-game situation? Yes. Could Kansas State take down the Beast from the Big East as well? The Beard says so, and I fear the beard. Could Wisconsin defend their way through anybody on their half of the bracket? Absolutely. Same with St. John's, Gonzaga, BYU, UCLA, and Michigan State (though with most of that particular group it would be 'outscore' instead of 'defend'). But they could also all lose in the first round! Pitt is the "safest" choice. But in a Region where everybody is a long shot, it means that no one is a sure thing.
The Tournament At-A-Glance
Snubs
I don't believe in snubs. When you are talking about the last 4 in and the first 4 out, there is no such thing. Is it a "snub" to get a chance for 3 home games before a trip to Madison Square Garden? As opposed to a first-round (or with the new tournament format, a Play-In Game) loss and being home in time to watch the Thursday action? No, I believe the real snubs come in terms of the seeding.
Big Ten Love
So who can complain about the seeding? No Big Ten team for sure. Yes, Ohio State may have a tough bracket, but they are still a 1-seed. Everybody is still beatable for them. The 2-seed North Carolina has lost 7 times, and in December a lot of people questioned whether this team would even get a single-digit seed. Look at the other gifts the Big Ten got: Purdue as a 3 (not entirely unreasonable, but taken in context of the rest of the Big Ten seeds, it starts to look like the Committee likes to favor the conference the Chairman comes from), Michigan as an 8, Illinois as a 9, and Penn State and Michigan State as 10's. How did all 4 Big Ten bubble teams make the field? How did all 4 miss the Play-In games? How did two of them nab single-digit seeds? And the one with the worst resume (other than overall record) got the best seed (Michigan)!
Non Big-6 Gripes
Mid-majors can complain about seeding for sure. Utah State, Memphis, and Richmond fell below the Play-In games, meaning that none of the 3 would have been in without winning their conference tournaments. Really? With UAB, USC, VCU, and Clemson making the field, none of those three would have made it without an automatic bid? Gonzaga only just beat the Play-In game line at 11. They sure don't think much of BYU's new home, the West Coast Conference, as regular season champ and Tourney Final loser St. Mary's missed the bracket completely. ODU-Butler in the 8-9 matchup to play Pitt? That sucks. Either of them could do some damage, but only one will have a chance. ODU should have been an 8-seed, let's be honest, maybe they could have taken Michigan's spot and Butler-Michigan could have squared off. George Mason as an 8-seed? Yes, VCU and UAB making the field is a "victory" for non-BCS teams, but they had to get in to make up for the seeding snubs of the other non-BCS schools: the Committee has to throw them some bones somehow.
The View From the Mountain
The Mountain West schools were well taken care of. UNLV got an overseeded Illinois, followed by perennial Tournament choker Kansas. SDSU shouldn't have much trouble getting to the Sweet 16 (obviously COULD lose, but shouldn't), and they get to play from there in Anaheim against teams from the East Coast (except maybe Texas in the Elite Eight). With their potential opponents all playing 3 time zones west of their traditional locations, that's a huge advantage, especially if they get late-night games! BYU held onto a 3-seed, down two guys that started at some point this season in Davies and Chris Collinsworth, which baffles a lot of people (though apparently not Charles Barkley...). They draw a St. John's team minus a starter, or a Gonzaga team that lost to SDSU at home. With rematches looming against Florida or UCLA, or perhaps getting a 14-loss Michigan State team that 3 weeks ago looked dead and buried. There is no Center that they couldn't slow down enough to make a Final Four.
SEC Whacked
Kentucky finishes just behind Florida in the standings, and beats them up in the Tournament Final. Florida still gets a 2? Kentucky only gets a 4? That seems a little inconsistent. Maybe they didn't want to be too obvious that there was an SEC bias. Tennessee got a gift with Michigan in the first game and Duke in the second. Georgia making the field is also a baffling choice. Yes, they held a head-to-head advantage over Colorado, but they also lost to Alabama TWICE. Oh, and not only did they make the field, but they avoided the Play-In game. SEC and Big Ten: overseeded and overhyped. If you are looking for upsets, go with those conferences.
Big East
So the Big East did get 11 teams in. It is a shame. Especially because none of the teams really challenged themselves in the non-conference, besides St. John's. So now that the Big East knows they get a free pass (Cincinnati played NOBODY in the non-conference and got a 6-seed), they have no incentive to play anybody in the non-conference ever again, and the ones they do schedule can all be at home (Pitt and Louisville). So for the St. Marys' and Utah States of the world that have been told they have to start playing people: the pool of "people" to play just shrunk by 16, unless you want to play a bunch of road games 2 or 3 time zones away. With that said, the Big East didn't fare as well in the seedings (besides Villanova) as most people thought they might. Underseeded teams are always dangerous, just as the SEC/Big Ten, I mean the overseeded teams, are always prime for an upset.
I don't believe in snubs. When you are talking about the last 4 in and the first 4 out, there is no such thing. Is it a "snub" to get a chance for 3 home games before a trip to Madison Square Garden? As opposed to a first-round (or with the new tournament format, a Play-In Game) loss and being home in time to watch the Thursday action? No, I believe the real snubs come in terms of the seeding.
Big Ten Love
So who can complain about the seeding? No Big Ten team for sure. Yes, Ohio State may have a tough bracket, but they are still a 1-seed. Everybody is still beatable for them. The 2-seed North Carolina has lost 7 times, and in December a lot of people questioned whether this team would even get a single-digit seed. Look at the other gifts the Big Ten got: Purdue as a 3 (not entirely unreasonable, but taken in context of the rest of the Big Ten seeds, it starts to look like the Committee likes to favor the conference the Chairman comes from), Michigan as an 8, Illinois as a 9, and Penn State and Michigan State as 10's. How did all 4 Big Ten bubble teams make the field? How did all 4 miss the Play-In games? How did two of them nab single-digit seeds? And the one with the worst resume (other than overall record) got the best seed (Michigan)!
Non Big-6 Gripes
Mid-majors can complain about seeding for sure. Utah State, Memphis, and Richmond fell below the Play-In games, meaning that none of the 3 would have been in without winning their conference tournaments. Really? With UAB, USC, VCU, and Clemson making the field, none of those three would have made it without an automatic bid? Gonzaga only just beat the Play-In game line at 11. They sure don't think much of BYU's new home, the West Coast Conference, as regular season champ and Tourney Final loser St. Mary's missed the bracket completely. ODU-Butler in the 8-9 matchup to play Pitt? That sucks. Either of them could do some damage, but only one will have a chance. ODU should have been an 8-seed, let's be honest, maybe they could have taken Michigan's spot and Butler-Michigan could have squared off. George Mason as an 8-seed? Yes, VCU and UAB making the field is a "victory" for non-BCS teams, but they had to get in to make up for the seeding snubs of the other non-BCS schools: the Committee has to throw them some bones somehow.
The View From the Mountain
The Mountain West schools were well taken care of. UNLV got an overseeded Illinois, followed by perennial Tournament choker Kansas. SDSU shouldn't have much trouble getting to the Sweet 16 (obviously COULD lose, but shouldn't), and they get to play from there in Anaheim against teams from the East Coast (except maybe Texas in the Elite Eight). With their potential opponents all playing 3 time zones west of their traditional locations, that's a huge advantage, especially if they get late-night games! BYU held onto a 3-seed, down two guys that started at some point this season in Davies and Chris Collinsworth, which baffles a lot of people (though apparently not Charles Barkley...). They draw a St. John's team minus a starter, or a Gonzaga team that lost to SDSU at home. With rematches looming against Florida or UCLA, or perhaps getting a 14-loss Michigan State team that 3 weeks ago looked dead and buried. There is no Center that they couldn't slow down enough to make a Final Four.
SEC Whacked
Kentucky finishes just behind Florida in the standings, and beats them up in the Tournament Final. Florida still gets a 2? Kentucky only gets a 4? That seems a little inconsistent. Maybe they didn't want to be too obvious that there was an SEC bias. Tennessee got a gift with Michigan in the first game and Duke in the second. Georgia making the field is also a baffling choice. Yes, they held a head-to-head advantage over Colorado, but they also lost to Alabama TWICE. Oh, and not only did they make the field, but they avoided the Play-In game. SEC and Big Ten: overseeded and overhyped. If you are looking for upsets, go with those conferences.
Big East
So the Big East did get 11 teams in. It is a shame. Especially because none of the teams really challenged themselves in the non-conference, besides St. John's. So now that the Big East knows they get a free pass (Cincinnati played NOBODY in the non-conference and got a 6-seed), they have no incentive to play anybody in the non-conference ever again, and the ones they do schedule can all be at home (Pitt and Louisville). So for the St. Marys' and Utah States of the world that have been told they have to start playing people: the pool of "people" to play just shrunk by 16, unless you want to play a bunch of road games 2 or 3 time zones away. With that said, the Big East didn't fare as well in the seedings (besides Villanova) as most people thought they might. Underseeded teams are always dangerous, just as the SEC/Big Ten, I mean the overseeded teams, are always prime for an upset.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Quick, Initial Thoughts on BYU's Draw
The BYU Screw Job: Not This Year
Every year, BYU fans have a quasi-legitimate gripe about their seeding, matchups, locations, etc. Not so this season (Utah State got the BYU screw job instead, though they earned it by intentionally playing an easy schedule). The Jimmer factor must have played huge, if it overshadowed the loss of Brandon Davies and kept BYU on the 3-line. The best part about BYU's set-up is that they will not likely see a frontline that they could not compete with until the Regional Finals (Elite Eight). So the hating that usually takes place for BYU was handed to Utah State. Still, to seed them BELOW the play-in teams is a bit of a slap in the face for a team that got a better seed last year with a worse record and only slightly better schedule.
First Round
Wofford is a dangerous 14, in that they made the NCAA tournament last season, where they scared the bejeebers out of Wisconsin fans in the first round before falling 53-49. But BYU should have no trouble scoring and rebounding against them, which were the two big issues in their most recent losses.
Round of 32
Should BYU dispose of the Wofford Boston Terriers, they would await the winner of the 6/11 game, which is St. John's against Gonzaga. BYU should not be intimidated by either one. St. John's overachieved this year. They were really tough at home, but didn't have to play anybody as tough as BYU away from home that they actually beat. They also haven't played at altitude this season. Gonzaga came on late, winning 9 in a row to close the season out. They are BYU's toughest threat as far as rebounding is concerned, which is the Cougar's biggest weakness right now. BYU should not be intimidated by a future conference opponent, particularly one that had a worse record in an easier league than BYU did this season.
Potential Sweet 16 Opponents
Should BYU advance to the Sweet 16, they would probably get either Florida or Michigan State, though I suppose UCLA is also a potential opponent. Michigan State is a team built for tournament runs, so they could be dangerous: not sure BYU would have an answer for Draymond Green, he's too big for Abouo/Collinsworth, and too athletic for Hartsock. They have a lot of big bodies. UCLA is still a year away, in my opinion. On a truly neutral floor, BYU would probably have beaten them earlier this season. Florida is the same team that BYU beat last year in the tournament, like literally the same players. If it is to be believed that the current BYU team is better than last year's (which by seeding they would appear to be), then it is certainly a winnable game, not one that I look at and say BYU couldn't win. I fully expect, with the pod coming out of Tampa, that Florida's homecourt advantage will push them into the Sweet 16.
Elite Eight
If, and we are getting into several if's by this point, BYU should advance to the Elite Eight, Pitt would certainly be a tough opponent, with their size and athleticism. I think they are a bit over-hyped as a 1-seed personally, not that they are not a very tough team, but they got the 3rd #1 seed without playing a single non-conference road game and losing 3 of their last 6 games. They are first Big East Champion in my memory to have an RPI of 10 or higher. They also got bounced in their first Big East Tournament game, by a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament (Connecticut), which would theoretically be a team as tough as BYU. Theoretically.
Kansas State and Wisconsin are the other two major possibilities in the Elite Eight. They are certainly nothing to be extremely afraid of for BYU. This year's K-State isn't as good as last season's that knocked BYU out. Wisconsin was a dominant home-court team (16-0 at home), but didn't even play .500 away from the Kohl's Center (7-8). Honestly, I guess Pitt advances by default, unless Pullen puts the K-State team on his back like he did for stretches in February. With that said, they might lose in the first round if they don't pick it up in the paint...
Overall Look at the Southeast Region
There isn't a team in the region that the Cougars could not beat. That is not a Final Four prediction, just to be clear. Just a statement that BYU could have had it a lot worse. St. John's is a 6-seed that BYU could easily beat if the Cougars shoot the ball well. Though there aren't any 6-seeds (besides maybe Georgetown) that I think present a really bad matchup for BYU. BYU would have more confidence going into a game with Florida than they would with any other 2-seed. And I think the 1-4-5 combination of Pitt, Wisconsin, and K-State presents fewer matchup problems than any of the other combos: Ohio State, Kentucky, and West Virginia; Kansas, Louisville, and Vanderbilt; and Duke and Texas (BYU beat Arizona by over 20 points in each of the past two seasons. Also I do not think the Wildcats have any chance to advance to the Elite Eight).
All in all, BYU got the best draw that they could have gotten as a 3-seed. I am definitely happy they got the 3-seed. I guess the Committee gets a pass from BYU fans this year. Now, there are legitimate gripes from a lot of other teams, but that's for another post...
Every year, BYU fans have a quasi-legitimate gripe about their seeding, matchups, locations, etc. Not so this season (Utah State got the BYU screw job instead, though they earned it by intentionally playing an easy schedule). The Jimmer factor must have played huge, if it overshadowed the loss of Brandon Davies and kept BYU on the 3-line. The best part about BYU's set-up is that they will not likely see a frontline that they could not compete with until the Regional Finals (Elite Eight). So the hating that usually takes place for BYU was handed to Utah State. Still, to seed them BELOW the play-in teams is a bit of a slap in the face for a team that got a better seed last year with a worse record and only slightly better schedule.
First Round
Wofford is a dangerous 14, in that they made the NCAA tournament last season, where they scared the bejeebers out of Wisconsin fans in the first round before falling 53-49. But BYU should have no trouble scoring and rebounding against them, which were the two big issues in their most recent losses.
Round of 32
Should BYU dispose of the Wofford Boston Terriers, they would await the winner of the 6/11 game, which is St. John's against Gonzaga. BYU should not be intimidated by either one. St. John's overachieved this year. They were really tough at home, but didn't have to play anybody as tough as BYU away from home that they actually beat. They also haven't played at altitude this season. Gonzaga came on late, winning 9 in a row to close the season out. They are BYU's toughest threat as far as rebounding is concerned, which is the Cougar's biggest weakness right now. BYU should not be intimidated by a future conference opponent, particularly one that had a worse record in an easier league than BYU did this season.
Potential Sweet 16 Opponents
Should BYU advance to the Sweet 16, they would probably get either Florida or Michigan State, though I suppose UCLA is also a potential opponent. Michigan State is a team built for tournament runs, so they could be dangerous: not sure BYU would have an answer for Draymond Green, he's too big for Abouo/Collinsworth, and too athletic for Hartsock. They have a lot of big bodies. UCLA is still a year away, in my opinion. On a truly neutral floor, BYU would probably have beaten them earlier this season. Florida is the same team that BYU beat last year in the tournament, like literally the same players. If it is to be believed that the current BYU team is better than last year's (which by seeding they would appear to be), then it is certainly a winnable game, not one that I look at and say BYU couldn't win. I fully expect, with the pod coming out of Tampa, that Florida's homecourt advantage will push them into the Sweet 16.
Elite Eight
If, and we are getting into several if's by this point, BYU should advance to the Elite Eight, Pitt would certainly be a tough opponent, with their size and athleticism. I think they are a bit over-hyped as a 1-seed personally, not that they are not a very tough team, but they got the 3rd #1 seed without playing a single non-conference road game and losing 3 of their last 6 games. They are first Big East Champion in my memory to have an RPI of 10 or higher. They also got bounced in their first Big East Tournament game, by a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament (Connecticut), which would theoretically be a team as tough as BYU. Theoretically.
Kansas State and Wisconsin are the other two major possibilities in the Elite Eight. They are certainly nothing to be extremely afraid of for BYU. This year's K-State isn't as good as last season's that knocked BYU out. Wisconsin was a dominant home-court team (16-0 at home), but didn't even play .500 away from the Kohl's Center (7-8). Honestly, I guess Pitt advances by default, unless Pullen puts the K-State team on his back like he did for stretches in February. With that said, they might lose in the first round if they don't pick it up in the paint...
Overall Look at the Southeast Region
There isn't a team in the region that the Cougars could not beat. That is not a Final Four prediction, just to be clear. Just a statement that BYU could have had it a lot worse. St. John's is a 6-seed that BYU could easily beat if the Cougars shoot the ball well. Though there aren't any 6-seeds (besides maybe Georgetown) that I think present a really bad matchup for BYU. BYU would have more confidence going into a game with Florida than they would with any other 2-seed. And I think the 1-4-5 combination of Pitt, Wisconsin, and K-State presents fewer matchup problems than any of the other combos: Ohio State, Kentucky, and West Virginia; Kansas, Louisville, and Vanderbilt; and Duke and Texas (BYU beat Arizona by over 20 points in each of the past two seasons. Also I do not think the Wildcats have any chance to advance to the Elite Eight).
All in all, BYU got the best draw that they could have gotten as a 3-seed. I am definitely happy they got the 3-seed. I guess the Committee gets a pass from BYU fans this year. Now, there are legitimate gripes from a lot of other teams, but that's for another post...
Mo Knows Bracketology?
So, everybody has their favorite expert for Bracketology. I cannot compete with the experts. But, with only 1 game left to go in college basketball before the tournament is announced, I thought I'd throw my hat into the ring. Here is how I see the Committee seeding (in no particular order, and I make no attempt to "place" teams in regions or first weekend locations):
1 seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Duke
2 seeds: Notre Dame, SDSU, Connecticut, Texas
3 seeds: BYU, Kentucky, Florida, North Carolina
4 seeds: Syracuse, Louisville, Purdue, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Cincinnati
6 seeds: St. John's, West Virginia, Xavier, Kansas State
7 seeds: UNLV, Temple, Washington, Cincinnati
8 seeds: Georgetown, UCLA, Missouri, Old Dominion
9 seeds: Utah State, Marquette, George Mason, Richmond
10 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Villanova, Florida State
11 seeds: Butler, Memphis, Penn State, Illinois
12 seeds: Colorado, Michigan State, Virginia Tech (Play-In), Michigan (Play-In), St. Mary's (Play-In), Clemson (Play-In)
13 seeds: Princeton, Bucknell, Belmont, Oakland
14 seeds: Long Island, Wofford, Indiana State, Morehead State
15 seeds: Northern Colorado, St. Peter's, Boston U, UNC-Asheville
16 seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, Akron, Alabama State (Play-In), Hampton (Play-In), Arkansas-Little Rock (Play-In), UT-San Antonio (Play-In)
You never really know how the Committee is going to go with some teams, but this would be my guess. The Big East and Big Ten always get overseeded in my mind, which could be the downfall of a lot of a lot of non-Big 6 teams, including BYU. Especially BYU!
If I am correct (highly unlikely), BYU would get Long Island, Wofford, Indiana State, or Morehead State in the first round. I would hope to avoid Morehead State or Indiana State, personally. Second round game could be any of the 6 or 11 seeds. Penn State, Illinois out of the 11's looks like a decent shot, though if they grind the game to a halt, BYU might be in trouble (Jimmer against Talor Battle would be a nice matchup, since they were AAU teammates for years before Jimmer headed to BYU and Battle to Penn State). I wouldn't want to touch Memphis with a 10-foot pole and Butler's Matt Howard would eat Hartsock alive. St. John's and Xavier would be my top 2 picks from the 6 seeds. I'm not sure I would want to line up across Huggy Bear or Jacob Pullen in Round 2. We'll know a lot more in 90 minutes!
1 seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Duke
2 seeds: Notre Dame, SDSU, Connecticut, Texas
3 seeds: BYU, Kentucky, Florida, North Carolina
4 seeds: Syracuse, Louisville, Purdue, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Cincinnati
6 seeds: St. John's, West Virginia, Xavier, Kansas State
7 seeds: UNLV, Temple, Washington, Cincinnati
8 seeds: Georgetown, UCLA, Missouri, Old Dominion
9 seeds: Utah State, Marquette, George Mason, Richmond
10 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Villanova, Florida State
11 seeds: Butler, Memphis, Penn State, Illinois
12 seeds: Colorado, Michigan State, Virginia Tech (Play-In), Michigan (Play-In), St. Mary's (Play-In), Clemson (Play-In)
13 seeds: Princeton, Bucknell, Belmont, Oakland
14 seeds: Long Island, Wofford, Indiana State, Morehead State
15 seeds: Northern Colorado, St. Peter's, Boston U, UNC-Asheville
16 seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, Akron, Alabama State (Play-In), Hampton (Play-In), Arkansas-Little Rock (Play-In), UT-San Antonio (Play-In)
You never really know how the Committee is going to go with some teams, but this would be my guess. The Big East and Big Ten always get overseeded in my mind, which could be the downfall of a lot of a lot of non-Big 6 teams, including BYU. Especially BYU!
If I am correct (highly unlikely), BYU would get Long Island, Wofford, Indiana State, or Morehead State in the first round. I would hope to avoid Morehead State or Indiana State, personally. Second round game could be any of the 6 or 11 seeds. Penn State, Illinois out of the 11's looks like a decent shot, though if they grind the game to a halt, BYU might be in trouble (Jimmer against Talor Battle would be a nice matchup, since they were AAU teammates for years before Jimmer headed to BYU and Battle to Penn State). I wouldn't want to touch Memphis with a 10-foot pole and Butler's Matt Howard would eat Hartsock alive. St. John's and Xavier would be my top 2 picks from the 6 seeds. I'm not sure I would want to line up across Huggy Bear or Jacob Pullen in Round 2. We'll know a lot more in 90 minutes!
BYU Seeding...Final Thoughts Pre-Selection Sunday
Seeding for BYU at this point is all a numbers game. They cannot do anything more for themselves on the court (they could hurt themselves off the court, however). For BYU to nab a 2-seed, they would have to be in the top 8 teams in the NCAA Tournament. NOT going to happen. For BYU to get a 3-seed, they need to be in the top 12. Possibility that I will examine. For BYU to get a 4-seed, they need to be in the top 16. That is definitely going to be the case as there are not 16 other candidates with anything close to BYU's resume.
BYU losing the MWC Tournament Final essentially ensures that SDSU will be in the West Regional and BYU will be in the Southeast. BYU finishing as, at worst, a 4-seed ensures that they will play in Denver the first weekend.
So now, the numbers game. What would it take for BYU secure a 3-seed? First off, this would give them a 2nd round matchup with a 6/11 winner, which is generally preferable to a 5/12 winner. A 6-seed could reasonably be a non-top 25 team (though technically they would be top 24 on the S-curve), which gives a Davies-less BYU team a fighting chance. A 5-seed is most likely a top 20 team. That's a tough draw for BYU right now on the opening weekend...if BYU is to advance out of the first weekend, their best, and perhaps only, shot is to get a 3-seed.
According to Lunardi, BEFORE the games today, BYU joined the following 11 teams in the 1/2/3 lines: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, SDSU, Florida, Louisville, and Connecticut. Of those teams, Texas and Louisville lost. Pitt and Notre Dame had already been eliminated from their tournaments. The other 7 won, 3 of them winning tournament championships. Assume that BYU dropped to the bottom of the 12-pack, which is probably a pretty valid assumption: if not the bottom, then probably second-to-bottom.
So it really comes down to one or two 4-seeds jumping BYU (or 5 seeds, but none of them won today so they are out). Lunardi had the 4-seeds as: Kentucky, Purdue, Syracuse, and Wisconsin. Kentucky beat a bubble team. The others had already been eliminated from their tournaments. So the battle for the final 3-seeds come down to BYU, Louisville, Texas, and Kentucky, with 3 of the 4 getting 3-seeds and the last getting a 4-seed. BYU fans should be cheering for Florida to beat Kentucky by 18 or more on Sunday.
If you trust Lunardi's seeding (which I don't necessarily know about, though I do trust his ability to pick the field), then BYU should be OK to still make the 3-line. Comparing resumes, BYU doesn't have the high-end wins those 3 teams have, but it also doesn't have the low-end losses either. BYU has the highest RPI of the 3. It's strength of schedule is in the ballpark. And they have The Jimmer, though they are without the "sex offender." (Thank you, I'm here all week)
It really comes down to three things: Kentucky not winning the SEC Championship, how the Committee views BYU without Davies, and how much impact The Jimmer has on the Committee's mindset for BYU. His 52 points on Friday night certainly shows that he is capable of putting his team on his back in a big-time situation. It certainly couldn't hurt BYU's cause. My best guess is, BYU will end up as the last 3-seed. BYU fans would certainly find no consolation in being the highest 4-seed. For the first time in my life, I find myself being a Gator fan on Sunday. Is a blowout win too much too ask for? I've had to deal with greaseball Gator alum Noah on my Bulls for several years now (though I must admit he is a darn good player), please give me something in return this year.
BYU losing the MWC Tournament Final essentially ensures that SDSU will be in the West Regional and BYU will be in the Southeast. BYU finishing as, at worst, a 4-seed ensures that they will play in Denver the first weekend.
So now, the numbers game. What would it take for BYU secure a 3-seed? First off, this would give them a 2nd round matchup with a 6/11 winner, which is generally preferable to a 5/12 winner. A 6-seed could reasonably be a non-top 25 team (though technically they would be top 24 on the S-curve), which gives a Davies-less BYU team a fighting chance. A 5-seed is most likely a top 20 team. That's a tough draw for BYU right now on the opening weekend...if BYU is to advance out of the first weekend, their best, and perhaps only, shot is to get a 3-seed.
According to Lunardi, BEFORE the games today, BYU joined the following 11 teams in the 1/2/3 lines: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, SDSU, Florida, Louisville, and Connecticut. Of those teams, Texas and Louisville lost. Pitt and Notre Dame had already been eliminated from their tournaments. The other 7 won, 3 of them winning tournament championships. Assume that BYU dropped to the bottom of the 12-pack, which is probably a pretty valid assumption: if not the bottom, then probably second-to-bottom.
So it really comes down to one or two 4-seeds jumping BYU (or 5 seeds, but none of them won today so they are out). Lunardi had the 4-seeds as: Kentucky, Purdue, Syracuse, and Wisconsin. Kentucky beat a bubble team. The others had already been eliminated from their tournaments. So the battle for the final 3-seeds come down to BYU, Louisville, Texas, and Kentucky, with 3 of the 4 getting 3-seeds and the last getting a 4-seed. BYU fans should be cheering for Florida to beat Kentucky by 18 or more on Sunday.
If you trust Lunardi's seeding (which I don't necessarily know about, though I do trust his ability to pick the field), then BYU should be OK to still make the 3-line. Comparing resumes, BYU doesn't have the high-end wins those 3 teams have, but it also doesn't have the low-end losses either. BYU has the highest RPI of the 3. It's strength of schedule is in the ballpark. And they have The Jimmer, though they are without the "sex offender." (Thank you, I'm here all week)
It really comes down to three things: Kentucky not winning the SEC Championship, how the Committee views BYU without Davies, and how much impact The Jimmer has on the Committee's mindset for BYU. His 52 points on Friday night certainly shows that he is capable of putting his team on his back in a big-time situation. It certainly couldn't hurt BYU's cause. My best guess is, BYU will end up as the last 3-seed. BYU fans would certainly find no consolation in being the highest 4-seed. For the first time in my life, I find myself being a Gator fan on Sunday. Is a blowout win too much too ask for? I've had to deal with greaseball Gator alum Noah on my Bulls for several years now (though I must admit he is a darn good player), please give me something in return this year.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
SDSU-BYU, Round III Preview
The First Two Matchups
The first two matchups, BYU just needed to shoot well to win. With Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth to keep the rebounding from getting completely out of control, and with the Aztecs being such a 'meh' shooting team, it just took some scoring to win the game. Jimmer shot really well in the first game. The team shot really well in the second game. Defensively, BYU did what it needed to do. James Anderson blocked some shots in the first game (5) and Noah Hartsock did the same in game two (4 blocks). Jackson Emery held D.J. Gay to 8 points in the two games combined. Kawhi Leonard got his, but nobody else did, and that was the difference.
What BYU Needs
This is a matchup where James Anderson and Stephen Rogers can actually contribute. For some completely baffling reason, Malcolm Thomas struggles with Anderson's length. With Billy White's tendency to float around on defense, it could leave the Cougar 4-men open on the perimeter. While that isn't Collinsworth's strength, Rogers can certainly make the Aztecs pay from the outside (and Collinsworth could do by getting dribble penetration and dishing once the defense collapses on him). And, of course, if Jimmer can score 52 again, what does any of that other stuff really matter? No way SDSU could score enough points to win a game where Jimmer scores 52.
Three Times
I do not believe that BYU is a vastly superior team to SDSU. Even if they were, it is very difficult to beat a team three times. Just look at all of the upsets happening in conference tournaments around the nation if you don't believe me. On the other hand, however, I have become less and less impressed with the Aztecs, even as their win total rises. They don't really do anything well on the offensive end, other than crash the boards. They don't really shoot well. They don't really get a lot of dribble penetration. They don't have any dominant scorers in the post. They don't play much team offense. They really just rely on exploiting when opponents get out of position and then on Kawhi Leonard hitting his jump shots inside of 12 feet.
Yes, D.J. Gay can put up points and James Rahon can shoot threes. But Gay only has 4 games this season with 20 points or more, and he has yet to score in double figures against BYU. And Rahon can only get shots off of other people and cannot create anything for himself (not to mention he is a defensive liability). Honestly, I am amazed that they keep finding ways to win. But they do keep winning, so maybe I am selling them short. I certainly won't be picking them for a deep NCAA Tournament run: they resemble the Big East teams too much, and I think that is a very bad thing when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. If BYU can zone them and win twice, imagine what Louisville, Syracuse, or others with athletic, high-flying guys can do.
Prediction
I think the loss of Davies makes this one of those toss-up games, otherwise I really believe BYU would take it to SDSU. It will all depend on BYU's ability to keep SDSU off of the boards, more so than I thought it would either of the first two games. I anticipate this being a lower scoring game. Championship games almost always are. Familiarity and fatigue are too prevalent for great shooting performances, although Rahon and Rogers both have seen limited minutes the past two days and should be fresh and capable. Though fatigue can work both ways: defenses may not be as good so it makes for more open shots, tired turnovers can lead to more fast break opportunities, and sheer adrenaline can make for explosive first half performances.
In the end, I think this is the game where the loss of Davies PHYSICALLY hurts BYU too much to win. BYU has got over being MENTALLY hurt (the loss to New Mexico last week), and now it's about matchups. If BYU can get even 5 good minutes out of Anderson and 10 good minutes out of Rogers, they could win. But I think that's putting a lot on guys that have never performed on this big of a state before, regardless of how good they are (or in Anderson's case...). SDSU should be a bit more tired, as the game with UNLV was more physical, stressful, and full-court (and finished 3 hours later) than was BYU's against New Mexico. BYU's zone could actually benefit the more tired Aztecs. I believe the first one to 65 wins this game. I hate to doubt The Jimmer and the Cougars, but it would be tough for them to play that well two nights in a row against two teams that consider BYU their primary rival. "The BYU Factor" ends BYU's run: SDSU goes off (relatively speaking): Aztecs 70, BYU 65.
The first two matchups, BYU just needed to shoot well to win. With Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth to keep the rebounding from getting completely out of control, and with the Aztecs being such a 'meh' shooting team, it just took some scoring to win the game. Jimmer shot really well in the first game. The team shot really well in the second game. Defensively, BYU did what it needed to do. James Anderson blocked some shots in the first game (5) and Noah Hartsock did the same in game two (4 blocks). Jackson Emery held D.J. Gay to 8 points in the two games combined. Kawhi Leonard got his, but nobody else did, and that was the difference.
What BYU Needs
This is a matchup where James Anderson and Stephen Rogers can actually contribute. For some completely baffling reason, Malcolm Thomas struggles with Anderson's length. With Billy White's tendency to float around on defense, it could leave the Cougar 4-men open on the perimeter. While that isn't Collinsworth's strength, Rogers can certainly make the Aztecs pay from the outside (and Collinsworth could do by getting dribble penetration and dishing once the defense collapses on him). And, of course, if Jimmer can score 52 again, what does any of that other stuff really matter? No way SDSU could score enough points to win a game where Jimmer scores 52.
Three Times
I do not believe that BYU is a vastly superior team to SDSU. Even if they were, it is very difficult to beat a team three times. Just look at all of the upsets happening in conference tournaments around the nation if you don't believe me. On the other hand, however, I have become less and less impressed with the Aztecs, even as their win total rises. They don't really do anything well on the offensive end, other than crash the boards. They don't really shoot well. They don't really get a lot of dribble penetration. They don't have any dominant scorers in the post. They don't play much team offense. They really just rely on exploiting when opponents get out of position and then on Kawhi Leonard hitting his jump shots inside of 12 feet.
Yes, D.J. Gay can put up points and James Rahon can shoot threes. But Gay only has 4 games this season with 20 points or more, and he has yet to score in double figures against BYU. And Rahon can only get shots off of other people and cannot create anything for himself (not to mention he is a defensive liability). Honestly, I am amazed that they keep finding ways to win. But they do keep winning, so maybe I am selling them short. I certainly won't be picking them for a deep NCAA Tournament run: they resemble the Big East teams too much, and I think that is a very bad thing when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. If BYU can zone them and win twice, imagine what Louisville, Syracuse, or others with athletic, high-flying guys can do.
Prediction
I think the loss of Davies makes this one of those toss-up games, otherwise I really believe BYU would take it to SDSU. It will all depend on BYU's ability to keep SDSU off of the boards, more so than I thought it would either of the first two games. I anticipate this being a lower scoring game. Championship games almost always are. Familiarity and fatigue are too prevalent for great shooting performances, although Rahon and Rogers both have seen limited minutes the past two days and should be fresh and capable. Though fatigue can work both ways: defenses may not be as good so it makes for more open shots, tired turnovers can lead to more fast break opportunities, and sheer adrenaline can make for explosive first half performances.
In the end, I think this is the game where the loss of Davies PHYSICALLY hurts BYU too much to win. BYU has got over being MENTALLY hurt (the loss to New Mexico last week), and now it's about matchups. If BYU can get even 5 good minutes out of Anderson and 10 good minutes out of Rogers, they could win. But I think that's putting a lot on guys that have never performed on this big of a state before, regardless of how good they are (or in Anderson's case...). SDSU should be a bit more tired, as the game with UNLV was more physical, stressful, and full-court (and finished 3 hours later) than was BYU's against New Mexico. BYU's zone could actually benefit the more tired Aztecs. I believe the first one to 65 wins this game. I hate to doubt The Jimmer and the Cougars, but it would be tough for them to play that well two nights in a row against two teams that consider BYU their primary rival. "The BYU Factor" ends BYU's run: SDSU goes off (relatively speaking): Aztecs 70, BYU 65.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Post-Friday Seeding for BYU
Regardless of the result on Saturday night in the MWC Final, BYU has locked itself into a 3-seed at worst. 1) They beat the team that embarrassed them after the Davies suspension. 2) Several contenders went down in conference tourneys that were battling with BYU on the 2-3 seed line, they won't fall below a 3 at this point. #9 Purdue lost big to Michigan State in the Big Ten Quarterfinals, #11 Syracuse lost a tough one to Connecticut in the Big East semis, and #13 Wisconsin lost BADLY (only scored 33 points in the game, which is a good half for Jimmer, apparently) to a Penn State team that should not make the NCAA Tournament. With an MWC Tournament Championship (which would include a 3rd win over SDSU who emerged victorious against UNLV), the Cougars will be a 2-seed. For everyone who wants to ask the question, there is absolutely no way that BYU nabs a 1-seed. They do not deserve it. But Jimmer and Company definitely deserve consideration for a 2, even if they lose the game on Saturday.
Should BYU lose to SDSU in the Finals, it'll be interesting to see how the Selection Committee places those two teams. BYU would own a 2-1 record head-to-head. But BYU is down a starter from the two wins. Plus, SDSU would have 2 losses compared to 4 for BYU. Whichever one gets placed higher on the S-Curve (an ordered list of teams in the tournament, 1-4 are 1-seeds, 5-8 are 2-seeds, etc.) gets to play in the West Regional in Anaheim. I had hoped for New Mexico and UNLV in the MWC Tourney. I don't think BYU can beat SDSU a third time. And I cringe to think that BYU may get shipped out to New Orleans because of a one-game result, with SDSU getting the nod to play in Anaheim. BYU would have a huge advantage over their opponents in Anaheim: they have already played a game in that arena this season (albeit in a loss to UCLA). No such luck/advantage in New Orleans.
Should BYU lose to SDSU in the Finals, it'll be interesting to see how the Selection Committee places those two teams. BYU would own a 2-1 record head-to-head. But BYU is down a starter from the two wins. Plus, SDSU would have 2 losses compared to 4 for BYU. Whichever one gets placed higher on the S-Curve (an ordered list of teams in the tournament, 1-4 are 1-seeds, 5-8 are 2-seeds, etc.) gets to play in the West Regional in Anaheim. I had hoped for New Mexico and UNLV in the MWC Tourney. I don't think BYU can beat SDSU a third time. And I cringe to think that BYU may get shipped out to New Orleans because of a one-game result, with SDSU getting the nod to play in Anaheim. BYU would have a huge advantage over their opponents in Anaheim: they have already played a game in that arena this season (albeit in a loss to UCLA). No such luck/advantage in New Orleans.
Big Stats, BYU-UNM, 3/11/2011
1) Obviously, Jimmer's 52 points, 59% shooting, and 50% from three were huge. John Anderson gave an awesome interview with Jimmer tonight on Sportscenter: Jimmer, you're on this show more than I am. Later: looking at the stat sheet, those 4 assists really stand out. Anyway, The Jimmer was not to be denied. The fact that he didn't shoot a single free throw until his 50th point is ridiculous. He was fouled at least a half a dozen times before that...in the act of shooting, not counting the rest...
2) Kyle Collinsworth's 9 rebounds, including 5 offensive rebounds, were big-time. Without Davies, against teams with solid inside presence, the question is: how will BYU fare on the boards. Thanks in large part to Collinsworth, New Mexico only had a plus-2 advantage on the glass. Abouo and Hartsock also contributed 13 rebounds together. On a night where Drew Gordon had 15 boards, those three stepped up to keep it even, Collinsworth in particular.
3) Jackson Emery's 5 steals, including three clutch ones as BYU started to pull away in the last 10 minutes, made the win possible. He also had 5 assists to go with those 5 steals. On a night where he was 1-7 from three, 3-11 overall, he needed to find other ways to contribute. He also added 7-8 on free throws. He, and the rest of the Cougars, also recovered well and kept New Mexico from getting those open threes in the corner. After connecting on his first two, Phillip McDonald went 0 for the rest of the night and was held to just 8 points, after scoring 26 last time. I'm giving the main props to Emery here, but it was really a team effort getting out to the open shooters in the second half.
4) Noah Hartsock's 3 blocks were more than the entire Lobo team, whose only block came on Charles Abouo's desperation 3 at the end of the first half. For Hartsock to single-handedly outblock a more physical, bigger team is impressive. New Mexico knew he was the only shot-blocking threat, and he still had more than their entire team. Nails.
5) BYU's 6 turnovers were vital, compared with 14 for New Mexico (a lot of which came in Dairese Gary's absence). They may have wasted some possessions in other ways, but it wasn't with turnovers that allowed New Mexico to get out and run. BYU valued the basketball, particularly in the last 10 minutes: Jimmer had 1 turnover at about the 10-minute mark. The only other turnover in the last 10 minutes was a completely bogus offensive foul call on Charles Abouo.
Those are the five reasons BYU won the game. Jimmer provided the scoring, Collinsworth the offensive rebounding, Jackson the steals that led to easy baskets in transition, Noah creating problems in the lane for Lobo penetrators, and BYU valuing the basketball.
Next up: well, as of right now, it's a 4-point game between SDSU and UNLV with about 6 minutes left. I'd put my money on SDSU, though I have made my case for why the MWC's final real Tourney needs to finish with BYU-UNLV. They have been the flagship programs of the 11-year history of the MWC, it's got to end with those two squaring off.
2) Kyle Collinsworth's 9 rebounds, including 5 offensive rebounds, were big-time. Without Davies, against teams with solid inside presence, the question is: how will BYU fare on the boards. Thanks in large part to Collinsworth, New Mexico only had a plus-2 advantage on the glass. Abouo and Hartsock also contributed 13 rebounds together. On a night where Drew Gordon had 15 boards, those three stepped up to keep it even, Collinsworth in particular.
3) Jackson Emery's 5 steals, including three clutch ones as BYU started to pull away in the last 10 minutes, made the win possible. He also had 5 assists to go with those 5 steals. On a night where he was 1-7 from three, 3-11 overall, he needed to find other ways to contribute. He also added 7-8 on free throws. He, and the rest of the Cougars, also recovered well and kept New Mexico from getting those open threes in the corner. After connecting on his first two, Phillip McDonald went 0 for the rest of the night and was held to just 8 points, after scoring 26 last time. I'm giving the main props to Emery here, but it was really a team effort getting out to the open shooters in the second half.
4) Noah Hartsock's 3 blocks were more than the entire Lobo team, whose only block came on Charles Abouo's desperation 3 at the end of the first half. For Hartsock to single-handedly outblock a more physical, bigger team is impressive. New Mexico knew he was the only shot-blocking threat, and he still had more than their entire team. Nails.
5) BYU's 6 turnovers were vital, compared with 14 for New Mexico (a lot of which came in Dairese Gary's absence). They may have wasted some possessions in other ways, but it wasn't with turnovers that allowed New Mexico to get out and run. BYU valued the basketball, particularly in the last 10 minutes: Jimmer had 1 turnover at about the 10-minute mark. The only other turnover in the last 10 minutes was a completely bogus offensive foul call on Charles Abouo.
Those are the five reasons BYU won the game. Jimmer provided the scoring, Collinsworth the offensive rebounding, Jackson the steals that led to easy baskets in transition, Noah creating problems in the lane for Lobo penetrators, and BYU valuing the basketball.
Next up: well, as of right now, it's a 4-point game between SDSU and UNLV with about 6 minutes left. I'd put my money on SDSU, though I have made my case for why the MWC's final real Tourney needs to finish with BYU-UNLV. They have been the flagship programs of the 11-year history of the MWC, it's got to end with those two squaring off.
New Mexico-BYU, Round 3
The New Mexico Mystery
This is the matchup that BYU had to want. Beating CSU for a third time says nothing. Beating New Mexico says a lot. Of course, losing a third time to New Mexico says a lot too...although I think it says as much about New Mexico as it does about BYU: why can't they treat every game like it's against BYU? There is no way a team that beats BYU 3 times in a season should lose twice to SDSU, UNLV, and Utah! They shouldn't lose at Wyoming. They shouldn't have a 3-game and a 4-game losing streak in conference play. They shouldn't be a 5-seed. And they shouldn't have finished .500 in the conference. Their only two MWC games to this point where they scored more than 80 points were against BYU (though they did score exactly 80 against TCU). In 15 other MWC games, against some pretty bad teams, mind you, their two best games were against BYU. Lobo fans probably love the fact that they could beat BYU three teams. I would hate it. I would wonder why my team was probably going on the road in the NIT if they were that capable, but that's just me and my high expectations.
Why It's Big and Why Both Teams Could Struggle
Both teams need this game: New Mexico to have a chance for the NCAA Tournament, BYU to have confidence going into the NCAA Tournament. Mentally, New Mexico has the edge. Physically, it's got to be pretty even. With BYU, they have some size and depth issues. James Anderson is the biggest body, but he proved to be entirely worthless against New Mexico last game. With New Mexico, they have some injury issues. Their two best defenders, that have stymied Jimmer more than anybody in the conference, are both battling significant ailments. My guess is, once the lights go on, they won't show any semblance of their injuries and will be just fine.
Home Court for the 5-Seed
The question remains: can New Mexico make it 3-3 with amazing shooting performances against BYU? Well, the closer the game is, the more likely that happens. SDSU and UNLV fans will file in the final 10 minutes and turn it into a home game for New Mexico (though the smart thing to do would be to cheer for BYU so your team can get another crack at them. Of course, I gave up on expecting smart things from people associated with this conference a long time ago). BYU must lead, and they must lead big.
Prediction
Well, I made my prediction at the start of the tournament. BYU wins and plays UNLV in the Final. I will stick with that. BYU will find ways to score against hobbled Lobos. The Cougars will be much more aggressive. New Mexico will (finally) miss some shots. Realistically, I think it comes down to how tight the game is called: if they actually call some fouls on New Mexico when they foul on EVERY possession, BYU could win this game running away. But I have zero confidence in MWC officials to be fair and objective in their final chance to officiate a BYU game. The reason BYU plays so poorly against New Mexico is that the Lobos play so physical, i.e. they foul all the time, knowing that the refs can't call everything (I call this the Michigan State defense). BYU players get so frustrated that the refs are missing so many fouls and play poorly. Meanwhile, the Lobos must just laugh at how much hacking they get away with, and it allows them to play looser on offense and make everything they throw up there.
I try to be objective in my blog, but my utter hatred for the petty people of the MWC and for the vile fans of the New Mexico Lobos just spews over on a day like today. Go Cougars. Bury those freaking Lobos and send them back to that craphole where they came from and belong. BYU 83, New Mexico 78
This is the matchup that BYU had to want. Beating CSU for a third time says nothing. Beating New Mexico says a lot. Of course, losing a third time to New Mexico says a lot too...although I think it says as much about New Mexico as it does about BYU: why can't they treat every game like it's against BYU? There is no way a team that beats BYU 3 times in a season should lose twice to SDSU, UNLV, and Utah! They shouldn't lose at Wyoming. They shouldn't have a 3-game and a 4-game losing streak in conference play. They shouldn't be a 5-seed. And they shouldn't have finished .500 in the conference. Their only two MWC games to this point where they scored more than 80 points were against BYU (though they did score exactly 80 against TCU). In 15 other MWC games, against some pretty bad teams, mind you, their two best games were against BYU. Lobo fans probably love the fact that they could beat BYU three teams. I would hate it. I would wonder why my team was probably going on the road in the NIT if they were that capable, but that's just me and my high expectations.
Why It's Big and Why Both Teams Could Struggle
Both teams need this game: New Mexico to have a chance for the NCAA Tournament, BYU to have confidence going into the NCAA Tournament. Mentally, New Mexico has the edge. Physically, it's got to be pretty even. With BYU, they have some size and depth issues. James Anderson is the biggest body, but he proved to be entirely worthless against New Mexico last game. With New Mexico, they have some injury issues. Their two best defenders, that have stymied Jimmer more than anybody in the conference, are both battling significant ailments. My guess is, once the lights go on, they won't show any semblance of their injuries and will be just fine.
Home Court for the 5-Seed
The question remains: can New Mexico make it 3-3 with amazing shooting performances against BYU? Well, the closer the game is, the more likely that happens. SDSU and UNLV fans will file in the final 10 minutes and turn it into a home game for New Mexico (though the smart thing to do would be to cheer for BYU so your team can get another crack at them. Of course, I gave up on expecting smart things from people associated with this conference a long time ago). BYU must lead, and they must lead big.
Prediction
Well, I made my prediction at the start of the tournament. BYU wins and plays UNLV in the Final. I will stick with that. BYU will find ways to score against hobbled Lobos. The Cougars will be much more aggressive. New Mexico will (finally) miss some shots. Realistically, I think it comes down to how tight the game is called: if they actually call some fouls on New Mexico when they foul on EVERY possession, BYU could win this game running away. But I have zero confidence in MWC officials to be fair and objective in their final chance to officiate a BYU game. The reason BYU plays so poorly against New Mexico is that the Lobos play so physical, i.e. they foul all the time, knowing that the refs can't call everything (I call this the Michigan State defense). BYU players get so frustrated that the refs are missing so many fouls and play poorly. Meanwhile, the Lobos must just laugh at how much hacking they get away with, and it allows them to play looser on offense and make everything they throw up there.
I try to be objective in my blog, but my utter hatred for the petty people of the MWC and for the vile fans of the New Mexico Lobos just spews over on a day like today. Go Cougars. Bury those freaking Lobos and send them back to that craphole where they came from and belong. BYU 83, New Mexico 78
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
2011 MWC Tourney Predictions: First Round
Play-In Game
Wyoming over TCU, in the ultimate "who cares" game.
BYU vs. Play-In Winner
BYU may get a little scare, but that's a long way from a first-round exit. BYU wins, perhaps closer than it should be, but the game will never really be in doubt. Jimmer scores whatever he needs to in order to establish that BYU will not be an easy out.
CSU-New Mexico
I think one thing people vastly overemphasize heading into conference tournaments is who came in on what kind of roll. CSU came limping into the tournament dropping 4 out of 5 games to end the season. New Mexico came in with guns blazing, having won 3 in a row including a rare win at the Marriott Center. That doesn't matter. Both teams are in desperation mode. Both team's only chance at an NCAA tournament bid is to win the MWC Tourney. Which team is hungrier? Which team can play within itself with so much on the line? I think ultimately New Mexico wins this game because 1) they have more shooters, 2) they have a battle-tested PG who has come through in the clutch before, and 3) they smell the chance to play BYU one more time. It will have nothing to do with being a hotter team, and everything to do with being a more tournament-ready team.
SDSU-Utah
SDSU couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent, except for maybe Wyoming. Their complete domination over the Utes in San Diego was very telling of the direction of the two programs. Flashback two years ago: Utah knocks off SDSU in the Tournament Final. Since then, it has been totally opposite directions. Utah goes to the NCAA Tournament and gets thumped in the first round as a 5-seed. SDSU went to the NIT, where they advanced to the Final Four in Madison Square Garden. The next season, SDSU goes to the NCAA Tournament after winning the MWC Tournament and comes within a basket of upsetting Tennessee. Utah gets blown out of the Conference Tournament to finish the season with a losing record. This year, Coach Fisher gets Co-Coach of the Year in the MWC as his Aztecs share a conference title and are in line to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Boylen is on a very hot seat as his team will finish the season with a losing record again. What a difference two years makes. With all of that build-up, Utah still has some very talented, albeit inexperienced, players, they just have a terrible coach. SDSU has more talented players, more experienced players, and a much better coach. SDSU may get a little scare of their own, but it won't last long. They do their job to set up a Semifinal showdown with UNLV.
Air Force-UNLV
If you are going to knock UNLV out, it's better to do it early. Their fans may show up on Friday if the opponent is good, but usually they wait to turn out in droves for the Championship Game on Saturday. Thursday is the best chance to get a somewhat neutral crowd. UNLV and Air Force played the worst game I have ever followed on Gametracker earlier this year at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV, smelling blood in the water, will play a much better game and advance to play SDSU.
Looking Ahead
I hate to pick chalk (besides 5th-seeded New Mexico "upsetting" a team that they are actually better than), but the conference is so top-heavy that it's tough to imagine an upset in the Quarterfinals. If I had to pick a team with the best chance at an upset, I'd say Air Force over UNLV. UNLV is riding high right now and may very easily overlook the Falcons with SDSU up next.
If my predictions are right, my early thoughts are to take a BYU-UNLV Final. No way BYU loses for a third time to New Mexico, and the same thing with UNLV against SDSU, especially not on a Friday night in front of a packed and very partisan Rebel crowd. UNLV remembers that it was SDSU that knocked them out of the tournament last year! Besides, Tre'Von has a bone to pick with Jimmer, because apparently the first two beatings weren't enough to convince Mr. Willis that the Jimmer was more than just supposedly the best player in the MWC. He is, in very deed, the best player. And it was unanimous.
Plus, really, how could the final MWC-As-We-Know-It Tournament NOT have another BYU-UNLV Final? They have produced some of the most dramatic moments and games in the history of the MWC tournament. Utah-SDSU had an eventful title game decided on the last possession two years ago, but in front of a half-full arena with only 102 combined points scored, it's tough to call that electric. It's got to be BYU-UNLV, one last time. Who is with me?
Wyoming over TCU, in the ultimate "who cares" game.
BYU vs. Play-In Winner
BYU may get a little scare, but that's a long way from a first-round exit. BYU wins, perhaps closer than it should be, but the game will never really be in doubt. Jimmer scores whatever he needs to in order to establish that BYU will not be an easy out.
CSU-New Mexico
I think one thing people vastly overemphasize heading into conference tournaments is who came in on what kind of roll. CSU came limping into the tournament dropping 4 out of 5 games to end the season. New Mexico came in with guns blazing, having won 3 in a row including a rare win at the Marriott Center. That doesn't matter. Both teams are in desperation mode. Both team's only chance at an NCAA tournament bid is to win the MWC Tourney. Which team is hungrier? Which team can play within itself with so much on the line? I think ultimately New Mexico wins this game because 1) they have more shooters, 2) they have a battle-tested PG who has come through in the clutch before, and 3) they smell the chance to play BYU one more time. It will have nothing to do with being a hotter team, and everything to do with being a more tournament-ready team.
SDSU-Utah
SDSU couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent, except for maybe Wyoming. Their complete domination over the Utes in San Diego was very telling of the direction of the two programs. Flashback two years ago: Utah knocks off SDSU in the Tournament Final. Since then, it has been totally opposite directions. Utah goes to the NCAA Tournament and gets thumped in the first round as a 5-seed. SDSU went to the NIT, where they advanced to the Final Four in Madison Square Garden. The next season, SDSU goes to the NCAA Tournament after winning the MWC Tournament and comes within a basket of upsetting Tennessee. Utah gets blown out of the Conference Tournament to finish the season with a losing record. This year, Coach Fisher gets Co-Coach of the Year in the MWC as his Aztecs share a conference title and are in line to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Boylen is on a very hot seat as his team will finish the season with a losing record again. What a difference two years makes. With all of that build-up, Utah still has some very talented, albeit inexperienced, players, they just have a terrible coach. SDSU has more talented players, more experienced players, and a much better coach. SDSU may get a little scare of their own, but it won't last long. They do their job to set up a Semifinal showdown with UNLV.
Air Force-UNLV
If you are going to knock UNLV out, it's better to do it early. Their fans may show up on Friday if the opponent is good, but usually they wait to turn out in droves for the Championship Game on Saturday. Thursday is the best chance to get a somewhat neutral crowd. UNLV and Air Force played the worst game I have ever followed on Gametracker earlier this year at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV, smelling blood in the water, will play a much better game and advance to play SDSU.
Looking Ahead
I hate to pick chalk (besides 5th-seeded New Mexico "upsetting" a team that they are actually better than), but the conference is so top-heavy that it's tough to imagine an upset in the Quarterfinals. If I had to pick a team with the best chance at an upset, I'd say Air Force over UNLV. UNLV is riding high right now and may very easily overlook the Falcons with SDSU up next.
If my predictions are right, my early thoughts are to take a BYU-UNLV Final. No way BYU loses for a third time to New Mexico, and the same thing with UNLV against SDSU, especially not on a Friday night in front of a packed and very partisan Rebel crowd. UNLV remembers that it was SDSU that knocked them out of the tournament last year! Besides, Tre'Von has a bone to pick with Jimmer, because apparently the first two beatings weren't enough to convince Mr. Willis that the Jimmer was more than just supposedly the best player in the MWC. He is, in very deed, the best player. And it was unanimous.
Plus, really, how could the final MWC-As-We-Know-It Tournament NOT have another BYU-UNLV Final? They have produced some of the most dramatic moments and games in the history of the MWC tournament. Utah-SDSU had an eventful title game decided on the last possession two years ago, but in front of a half-full arena with only 102 combined points scored, it's tough to call that electric. It's got to be BYU-UNLV, one last time. Who is with me?
A Few Thoughts, 3/8/2011
Happy International Women's Day. Buy that special lady in your life a little something special today. Or, if you're broke like me, just do something special for her today. Sorry, I've been absent for a few days. Unfortunately, my life does not always revolve around writing stuff about sports...
Wyoming Game Recap
BYU's defensive deficiencies aren't in the post. The loss of Davies makes that aspect more of a liability, but the biggest issue for BYU is keeping penetration out of the lane. The biggest impact of the Davies loss is on offense. So it was nice to see BYU score 102 points without him. I know Wyoming is bad, but scoring 102 points is tough to do, regardless of the competition. Also, nobody else managed to score over 96 against Wyoming in 30 tries. BYU will have to outscore people in the upcoming tournaments, so it was nice to see that they can still put it in the hole without Davies.
MWC Teams and "Of-The-Year" Guys
Typically, BYU fans always have a gripe with the selection of All-Conference Teams, as well as Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc. This season, Jimmer was unanimous POY, which he should have been. The MWC got it right. Jackson Emery was Defensive POY. The MWC got it right. Dave Rose shared Coach of the Year honors with Steve Fisher. The MWC got it right. Fisher did what he was expected to do, Rose exceeded them.
The only gripe I have is that Jackson Emery, the conference's best defensive player and the 2nd-best offensive player on the best team, got beat out for the First Team by SDSU PG D.J. Gay. Emery is clearly a better defender than Gay (evidenced by one being defensive POY and the other not even making the defensive all-conference team), and on offense they are similar enough statistically-speaking, that I thought Jackson should have got the nod. He still made 2nd team, but this is the crap BYU has always dealt with in this petty conference.
TCU wins the conference in football by ONE game: they sweep the awards and dominate the all-conference team. Same thing with Utah. BYU wins the conference in football by THREE games and doesn't even sweep the awards, not to mention the lack of BYU players on the first-team. Joke. Good riddance! Enjoy your new TV contract negotiations without BYU, Utah, and TCU, i.e. without the Salt Lake/Provo and Dallas markets, and without 75% of the conference's paying customers.
MWC Tournament Thoughts
Wednesday brings the start of the MWC Tournament. Wyoming plays TCU, with the winner taking on BYU. TCU always plays BYU tough. They are a bit more physical. BYU should definitely hope to get Wyoming. Even with them shooting lights out on Saturday, BYU beat them by 24, though it was a closer game than that the first 35 minutes. Neither team is a resume-builder, so BYU should just hope to get the easiest opponent.
As far as the second round, it would be better for BYU to beat New Mexico, in my opinion, for statement purposes. A win over CSU would give BYU another top-50 RPI win (would take them to 10-1 against the RPI top-50, with 5 wins away from home). Assuming BYU wins, both would be statements, I just think a win in a rematch with New Mexico would be a bigger statement for the Committee than beating a team they already beat twice, even if it is a quasi-bubble team. It's a high-risk, high-reward type of game with New Mexico: beating them would say a lot, losing to them for a third time would be a big negative on the resume.
Obviously, SDSU is the opponent that seemingly best benefits (or least hurts) BYU in the Finals. It is also one that BYU will have a difficult, nigh-impossible, time winning. And a loss to SDSU would hurt BYU's seeding chances, since it may move SDSU ahead of BYU on the S-Curve. BYU still matches up favorably with UNLV without Davies, and a win against them on their home floor would certainly be a big statement for the Committee. As a BYU fan merely hoping to win the MWC Tourney, I hope for UNLV on the other side. SDSU may be the better opponent, but there is something to be said for ousting the home team in the Finals. Plus it would give BYU a better seeding than the Aztecs if the Cougars advance further than them in the MWC Tournament, even if BYU doesn't win it. At this point, it's all about getting a better seed. If BYU gets to the Final, winning the tournament would help the seed more than losing to a better team, especially with BYU and SDSU so similar in resume. BYU should be happy to take their two head-to-head wins and leave it at that. I see no reason to give the Committee a chance to put the Aztecs in the West Regional!
Wyoming Game Recap
BYU's defensive deficiencies aren't in the post. The loss of Davies makes that aspect more of a liability, but the biggest issue for BYU is keeping penetration out of the lane. The biggest impact of the Davies loss is on offense. So it was nice to see BYU score 102 points without him. I know Wyoming is bad, but scoring 102 points is tough to do, regardless of the competition. Also, nobody else managed to score over 96 against Wyoming in 30 tries. BYU will have to outscore people in the upcoming tournaments, so it was nice to see that they can still put it in the hole without Davies.
MWC Teams and "Of-The-Year" Guys
Typically, BYU fans always have a gripe with the selection of All-Conference Teams, as well as Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc. This season, Jimmer was unanimous POY, which he should have been. The MWC got it right. Jackson Emery was Defensive POY. The MWC got it right. Dave Rose shared Coach of the Year honors with Steve Fisher. The MWC got it right. Fisher did what he was expected to do, Rose exceeded them.
The only gripe I have is that Jackson Emery, the conference's best defensive player and the 2nd-best offensive player on the best team, got beat out for the First Team by SDSU PG D.J. Gay. Emery is clearly a better defender than Gay (evidenced by one being defensive POY and the other not even making the defensive all-conference team), and on offense they are similar enough statistically-speaking, that I thought Jackson should have got the nod. He still made 2nd team, but this is the crap BYU has always dealt with in this petty conference.
TCU wins the conference in football by ONE game: they sweep the awards and dominate the all-conference team. Same thing with Utah. BYU wins the conference in football by THREE games and doesn't even sweep the awards, not to mention the lack of BYU players on the first-team. Joke. Good riddance! Enjoy your new TV contract negotiations without BYU, Utah, and TCU, i.e. without the Salt Lake/Provo and Dallas markets, and without 75% of the conference's paying customers.
MWC Tournament Thoughts
Wednesday brings the start of the MWC Tournament. Wyoming plays TCU, with the winner taking on BYU. TCU always plays BYU tough. They are a bit more physical. BYU should definitely hope to get Wyoming. Even with them shooting lights out on Saturday, BYU beat them by 24, though it was a closer game than that the first 35 minutes. Neither team is a resume-builder, so BYU should just hope to get the easiest opponent.
As far as the second round, it would be better for BYU to beat New Mexico, in my opinion, for statement purposes. A win over CSU would give BYU another top-50 RPI win (would take them to 10-1 against the RPI top-50, with 5 wins away from home). Assuming BYU wins, both would be statements, I just think a win in a rematch with New Mexico would be a bigger statement for the Committee than beating a team they already beat twice, even if it is a quasi-bubble team. It's a high-risk, high-reward type of game with New Mexico: beating them would say a lot, losing to them for a third time would be a big negative on the resume.
Obviously, SDSU is the opponent that seemingly best benefits (or least hurts) BYU in the Finals. It is also one that BYU will have a difficult, nigh-impossible, time winning. And a loss to SDSU would hurt BYU's seeding chances, since it may move SDSU ahead of BYU on the S-Curve. BYU still matches up favorably with UNLV without Davies, and a win against them on their home floor would certainly be a big statement for the Committee. As a BYU fan merely hoping to win the MWC Tourney, I hope for UNLV on the other side. SDSU may be the better opponent, but there is something to be said for ousting the home team in the Finals. Plus it would give BYU a better seeding than the Aztecs if the Cougars advance further than them in the MWC Tournament, even if BYU doesn't win it. At this point, it's all about getting a better seed. If BYU gets to the Final, winning the tournament would help the seed more than losing to a better team, especially with BYU and SDSU so similar in resume. BYU should be happy to take their two head-to-head wins and leave it at that. I see no reason to give the Committee a chance to put the Aztecs in the West Regional!
Friday, March 4, 2011
Where BYU Basketball Goes From Here, 3/4/2011
Two "Easy" Games
BYU has two games in which they can get their act together. BYU gets Wyoming on Saturday. Wyoming is the type of team that always looks like the product that BYU put out on Wednesday night against New Mexico. In fact, as bad as BYU was, that may have been superior to anything Wyoming has put out in the past two months. So BYU should win, and have a good opportunity figure out a rotation and get some things figured out offensively. BYU gets to follow that up, assuming it is a win (Mo predicts BYU 84, Wyoming 61), with the winner of the 8/9 play-in game in the MWC Tournament. That is either Wyoming or TCU, which should be another easy win.
Rematch with Lobos is Best Possible Scenario
If BYU hasn't figured it out by then, the two games following that will be brutal for the Cougars: CSU or New Mexico followed by an NCAA Tournament game. But if BYU does have some things figured out by then, BYU may end up with a golden opportunity. 9 days after the debacle in Provo, BYU could get a rematch with New Mexico. BYU would have a very direct opportunity to make a statement to the Selection Committee: the team that played on 3/2/2011 against New Mexico is not the BYU team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they would have to actually beat New Mexico, and perhaps even by double digits, to make that statement.
Seeding
With 3 straight wins, including a rematch with New Mexico, BYU could still lose in the MWC Final and garner a 2-seed. Anything less than that and it may be a 3-seed, or perhaps even as low as a 4. Jerry Palm has BYU as a 4-seed right now. That is probably about right as of today, but BYU can prove that they are better than they played on Wednesday night. That is all they have to do to get back to the 2/3 line. As I have said before: I believe they will prove that, because I believe they are better. I believe they will still "earn" a 2-seed by pulling out 3 consecutive wins. Though perhaps that is just the Cougar fan in Michael, and not the objective blogger in Mo...
BYU has two games in which they can get their act together. BYU gets Wyoming on Saturday. Wyoming is the type of team that always looks like the product that BYU put out on Wednesday night against New Mexico. In fact, as bad as BYU was, that may have been superior to anything Wyoming has put out in the past two months. So BYU should win, and have a good opportunity figure out a rotation and get some things figured out offensively. BYU gets to follow that up, assuming it is a win (Mo predicts BYU 84, Wyoming 61), with the winner of the 8/9 play-in game in the MWC Tournament. That is either Wyoming or TCU, which should be another easy win.
Rematch with Lobos is Best Possible Scenario
If BYU hasn't figured it out by then, the two games following that will be brutal for the Cougars: CSU or New Mexico followed by an NCAA Tournament game. But if BYU does have some things figured out by then, BYU may end up with a golden opportunity. 9 days after the debacle in Provo, BYU could get a rematch with New Mexico. BYU would have a very direct opportunity to make a statement to the Selection Committee: the team that played on 3/2/2011 against New Mexico is not the BYU team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they would have to actually beat New Mexico, and perhaps even by double digits, to make that statement.
Seeding
With 3 straight wins, including a rematch with New Mexico, BYU could still lose in the MWC Final and garner a 2-seed. Anything less than that and it may be a 3-seed, or perhaps even as low as a 4. Jerry Palm has BYU as a 4-seed right now. That is probably about right as of today, but BYU can prove that they are better than they played on Wednesday night. That is all they have to do to get back to the 2/3 line. As I have said before: I believe they will prove that, because I believe they are better. I believe they will still "earn" a 2-seed by pulling out 3 consecutive wins. Though perhaps that is just the Cougar fan in Michael, and not the objective blogger in Mo...
Thursday, March 3, 2011
The Silver Lining After New Mexico
I do not believe that the team we saw last night is what BYU is going to be without Davies. I think there will be some adjustments. The team will figure it out. Like I said in an earlier post, I think losing Davies makes this team a lot more like last year's team that still advanced out of the first round for the first time in 18 years. I think they just need to adjust to that. That takes time. They are obviously perimeter-oriented now, but they do not have to be three point-oriented like they were last night. It was 5 guys standing around the three-point line jacking up the first thing resembling an open look. Abouo only drove one time, and that was after the game was well out of hand. He needs to put it on the floor more. Jackson was jacking up anything. Jimmer was pleading for fouls. And Hartsock and Collinsworth decided to not participate in the offense last night. They need ball movement through quick, crisp passes, like they did in the non-conference schedule. BYU will get that back on offense.
Defensively, the team was not in it. They weren't focused. Jimmer was BYU's most tenacious defender last night. That is not a good sign. There was no hustle. They were getting beat to the floor for loose balls. They were getting beat to the rim. They weren't closing on open shooters. That wasn't Davies' physical absence causing it. It was all mental. They can get over the mental aspect of this. They will. But they had better do it fast. Their NCAA Tournament seed depends on them winning the next two games. I think the shock of it all will have passed by Saturday. BYU will get it going again.
I am confident that BYU is a better team than they were last night. There is no doubt of it. Once they get the rotation set (i.e. starting Kyle Collinsworth), things will get going again. Once the emotion passes, Jackson won't be kicking chairs, Logan Magnusson won't be getting technical fouls, James Anderson will not be intentionally knocking opponents down. It will come. There is hope. All is not lost. This is still a team at least as good as last year's. If I'm right about that, then, with a better draw, they should have a really good chance at the Sweet 16.
Defensively, the team was not in it. They weren't focused. Jimmer was BYU's most tenacious defender last night. That is not a good sign. There was no hustle. They were getting beat to the floor for loose balls. They were getting beat to the rim. They weren't closing on open shooters. That wasn't Davies' physical absence causing it. It was all mental. They can get over the mental aspect of this. They will. But they had better do it fast. Their NCAA Tournament seed depends on them winning the next two games. I think the shock of it all will have passed by Saturday. BYU will get it going again.
I am confident that BYU is a better team than they were last night. There is no doubt of it. Once they get the rotation set (i.e. starting Kyle Collinsworth), things will get going again. Once the emotion passes, Jackson won't be kicking chairs, Logan Magnusson won't be getting technical fouls, James Anderson will not be intentionally knocking opponents down. It will come. There is hope. All is not lost. This is still a team at least as good as last year's. If I'm right about that, then, with a better draw, they should have a really good chance at the Sweet 16.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Post New Mexico-BYU Observations, 3/2/2011
1) New Mexico absolutely saves everything they have for BYU. Every time. Like my friend Holly from New Mexico always says when talking about her "homeland": everyone in the state hates everything about BYU, 100% of the time, for all of their lives. They dropped 86 points on BYU in the previous meeting. Since then, their only game at 80 points was against TCU, the absolute worst team in the conference. They were consistently scoring in the 60's. Then they come back and drop 82 on the road in the Marriott Center.
They got a lot of open looks throughout the game, but they played and shot out of their minds. The epitome was with about 2 minutes left, shot clock at 1, man in his face, fade-away 3-pointer, just to prevent a shot clock violation: nothing but net for a 35% 3-point shooter. Phillip McDonald goes for 26, shooting 5-8 from 3. Kendall Williams drops 15, on 3-5 from 3. Two guys have career nights. Just like last time, just a different pair of guys. They seem to save it all up for BYU. Losing 4 of the last 5, averaging 66 points a game since playing BYU. And they drop 82 on the road on 47% shooting, 45% from 3. This is a 35% shooting team from 3 on the year and against BYU they are shooting 43%. They average 74 points/game. Against BYU, they average 84. The "BYU Factor" is alive and well for New Mexico. Honestly, it's like they've been taking it easy the past 3 weeks just saving everything for the game against BYU.
2) As the season has gone on, the officiating gets worse and worse in BYU games. Jimmer drives, gets fouled three times before throwing up a crazy shot that he misses. Play on. Jimmer drives, player concedes the layup and intentionally avoids contact. Jimmer gets the and-one. There were at least 30 plays where they missed fouls or called bad fouls. I don't think that is an exaggeration. I thought James Anderson was going to get ejected for a late, and obviously intentional, shove on Drew Gordon at the end of the game. I didn't just think he was going to, I thought he should have. Instead, it was out of bounds, off New Mexico, BYU ball. When you have Jackson Emery getting called for a foul 30 feet from the basket when New Mexico actually pushed their own guy, it's bad. When that isn't even in the top 5 of bad calls, that's atrocious. The refs should not get paid for their performance tonight. At least not from the NCAA...The same goes for everybody in a Cougar uniform. There wasn't a whole lot that any of them did to earn their scholarships tonight. BYU was not winning the game tonight, even if they got all of the calls that the refs totally blew.
3) BYU is not as mentally tough as I thought. They showed true grit and determination on Saturday. They pulled together when the going got tough in San Diego. They showed that they can handle a raucous crowd with incessantly vulgar taunts, they can deal with traps from athletic opponents, and they can handle anything inside that 94-foot rectangle. But they crumbled tonight. I thought the seniors would pull them together. I thought they had enough strengths that they could absorb the blow and still manage to put up points. But they shot themselves out of the game tonight. Just because there is no Brandon Davies to throw the ball into, doesn't mean that BYU can't score inside. But everybody was content to just jack it up from outside. Jimmer and Collinsworth were the only two players that actually tried to penetrate and score. Most of BYU's turnovers were guys literally letting the ball go through their hands: mental mistakes, and many of them. BYU got out-toughed, they got out-hustled, and they got out-shot. At home. With a conference championship on the line.
4) I will not miss the Mountain West one bit. New Mexico always reminds me of that, even when BYU beats them (which is truly rare these days). New Mexico has played 2 great games this season, both against BYU. But, Lobo fans, much like Utah football fans of the 90's, would gladly go 2-30, if they were 2-0 against BYU. Holly, would you agree with that assessment?
They got a lot of open looks throughout the game, but they played and shot out of their minds. The epitome was with about 2 minutes left, shot clock at 1, man in his face, fade-away 3-pointer, just to prevent a shot clock violation: nothing but net for a 35% 3-point shooter. Phillip McDonald goes for 26, shooting 5-8 from 3. Kendall Williams drops 15, on 3-5 from 3. Two guys have career nights. Just like last time, just a different pair of guys. They seem to save it all up for BYU. Losing 4 of the last 5, averaging 66 points a game since playing BYU. And they drop 82 on the road on 47% shooting, 45% from 3. This is a 35% shooting team from 3 on the year and against BYU they are shooting 43%. They average 74 points/game. Against BYU, they average 84. The "BYU Factor" is alive and well for New Mexico. Honestly, it's like they've been taking it easy the past 3 weeks just saving everything for the game against BYU.
2) As the season has gone on, the officiating gets worse and worse in BYU games. Jimmer drives, gets fouled three times before throwing up a crazy shot that he misses. Play on. Jimmer drives, player concedes the layup and intentionally avoids contact. Jimmer gets the and-one. There were at least 30 plays where they missed fouls or called bad fouls. I don't think that is an exaggeration. I thought James Anderson was going to get ejected for a late, and obviously intentional, shove on Drew Gordon at the end of the game. I didn't just think he was going to, I thought he should have. Instead, it was out of bounds, off New Mexico, BYU ball. When you have Jackson Emery getting called for a foul 30 feet from the basket when New Mexico actually pushed their own guy, it's bad. When that isn't even in the top 5 of bad calls, that's atrocious. The refs should not get paid for their performance tonight. At least not from the NCAA...The same goes for everybody in a Cougar uniform. There wasn't a whole lot that any of them did to earn their scholarships tonight. BYU was not winning the game tonight, even if they got all of the calls that the refs totally blew.
3) BYU is not as mentally tough as I thought. They showed true grit and determination on Saturday. They pulled together when the going got tough in San Diego. They showed that they can handle a raucous crowd with incessantly vulgar taunts, they can deal with traps from athletic opponents, and they can handle anything inside that 94-foot rectangle. But they crumbled tonight. I thought the seniors would pull them together. I thought they had enough strengths that they could absorb the blow and still manage to put up points. But they shot themselves out of the game tonight. Just because there is no Brandon Davies to throw the ball into, doesn't mean that BYU can't score inside. But everybody was content to just jack it up from outside. Jimmer and Collinsworth were the only two players that actually tried to penetrate and score. Most of BYU's turnovers were guys literally letting the ball go through their hands: mental mistakes, and many of them. BYU got out-toughed, they got out-hustled, and they got out-shot. At home. With a conference championship on the line.
4) I will not miss the Mountain West one bit. New Mexico always reminds me of that, even when BYU beats them (which is truly rare these days). New Mexico has played 2 great games this season, both against BYU. But, Lobo fans, much like Utah football fans of the 90's, would gladly go 2-30, if they were 2-0 against BYU. Holly, would you agree with that assessment?
New Mexico-BYU Preview, 3/2/2011
I think we'll see a BYU team that is ready to step up their game tonight. Jimmer Fredette recognizes the challenge ahead of BYU. I expect tonight, everybody will try to give just a little bit more. In the case of some players, they may look sloppy and in a rush, and make mistakes, but Jimmer should be able to take it in stride and just get into that next gear. If BYU isn't playing well, Jimmer will step up his game. He seems to know when his team needs him to get it going. Tonight might be that night.
New Mexico comes in having lost four of their last 5. They have been struggling to score points. They have not exceeded 70 puts in regulation in over a month. How the absence of Brandon Davies will impact their ability to score is unknown. Certainly second-leading scorer Drew Gordon should find the going a bit easier. But it wasn't Gordon that killed BYU last time. It was New Mexico getting open threes. Perhaps BYU putting a 4th guard out there in a 2-3 zone situation (they'll have to play more zone to protect guys from foul trouble), would help slow that down. That and the fact that New Mexico is 2-5 on the road in MWC play.
I expect BYU to play well defensively and score a lot points offensively. I do expect a sloppy, wide-open type of game. Cougars 90, Lobos 75, Jimmer 39.
New Mexico comes in having lost four of their last 5. They have been struggling to score points. They have not exceeded 70 puts in regulation in over a month. How the absence of Brandon Davies will impact their ability to score is unknown. Certainly second-leading scorer Drew Gordon should find the going a bit easier. But it wasn't Gordon that killed BYU last time. It was New Mexico getting open threes. Perhaps BYU putting a 4th guard out there in a 2-3 zone situation (they'll have to play more zone to protect guys from foul trouble), would help slow that down. That and the fact that New Mexico is 2-5 on the road in MWC play.
I expect BYU to play well defensively and score a lot points offensively. I do expect a sloppy, wide-open type of game. Cougars 90, Lobos 75, Jimmer 39.
More Thoughts on BYU, Davies, 3/2/2011
Before the Season
As the season was getting started, I looked at BYU's big men and had happy thoughts. Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth were all good players offensively and defensively. Stephen Rogers was a potential Tavernari-type. Logan Magnusson had worked himself to be a team captain in the offseason. James Anderson was supposedly improved. Then as the season started it became apparent that Rogers was too skinny to defend in the post. Magnusson's effort is only enough to overcome his lack of size against lesser PFs, and offensively he still isn't any good. Anderson may have been improved, but his shots still weren't falling and his lack of coordination and athleticism was readily apparent on the defensive end as well. Then Collinsworth went down with a season-ending injury. Kick Davies off the team and Hartsock is the only one left that BYU can count on. They went from a load of potential to a load of...something else.
Deep Tournament Runs?
There were some NCAA Tournament games that BYU was not going to match up well in. Those teams that BYU might face in the Elite Eight or Final Four were going to be tough as it was: Kansas, Ohio State, and Purdue. Now those teams are unbeatable for BYU. BYU was going to have a tough time slowing the Morris twins, Jared Sullinger, or Purdue's two-headed beast in the post. Now there simply are not the bodies to compete. How is Charles Abouo or James Anderson going to slow down guys that 6'8" big-bodied, athletic, well-coached players have had a tough time slowing down? Against KU, BYU would lose the rebounding battle by 10-20. Much like, prior to the football season, BYU had no chance against Florida State and TCU, if BYU has one of these teams in their path, they will be eliminated.
BYU's Sweet 16/Elite Eight Prospects?
Games that were going to be really tough match-ups in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, now become uphill battles: Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, and San Diego State. These teams have solid players at both the 4 and the 5. BYU will have a tough time keeping them from getting good shots in teh post and keeping them off the offensive glass. I wouldn't like our chances against any of these teams either, though it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Round of 32 Struggles Too?
Games that BYU might have struggled a bit in the Round of 32 will suddenly become really tough games: Kentucky, Georgetown, George Mason, and Texas A&M. I think offensively, BYU can still compete with these types of teams, it's on the defensive side that BYU is really hurt here.
Overall Outlook
BYU will really have to shoot well in the tournament. They will have to outscore people now. The prospects for stopping other teams and securing defensive rebounds will be a whole lot tougher now. The good news is: they can do it. The bad news is: even great shooters have an off-night every 6 games (it takes 6 NCAA Tournament wins to win it all...). With Jimmer, you can never count BYU out, even if the matchups are completely out of whack on the interior.
Even though whatever Davies did was a personal choice, probably knowing it was wrong, you can't help but feel for the young man. BYU was in the midst of a magical season, with quite possibly their best team ever. How will he handle the feeling of disappointing his teammates, his family, and BYU nation? They went from Final Four contender to "can they get out of the first weekend" again. I hope he can overcome this and become a better man. BYU will have its own struggles to overcome this and not become a worse team. They are still a good team, but they took a big inside hit. Does the Jimmer have it in him to carry the team on his back for 4-6 NCAA Tournament games? If BYU can't stop anyone inside, would it be enough anyway?
BYU very much resembles a poor man's Big East team: all about the guard play, with one big body down low. Looking even further, BYU has essentially become a similar team to last year's team with no real inside scoring presence. The other downside is the lack of offensive rebounding and the defense BYU gets from the 4 is that much worse. At this point, BYU should be able to still secure a trip to the Sweet 16. At that point, it's all about matchups. And the chances are not good that BYU will match up well from that point on...
As the season was getting started, I looked at BYU's big men and had happy thoughts. Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth were all good players offensively and defensively. Stephen Rogers was a potential Tavernari-type. Logan Magnusson had worked himself to be a team captain in the offseason. James Anderson was supposedly improved. Then as the season started it became apparent that Rogers was too skinny to defend in the post. Magnusson's effort is only enough to overcome his lack of size against lesser PFs, and offensively he still isn't any good. Anderson may have been improved, but his shots still weren't falling and his lack of coordination and athleticism was readily apparent on the defensive end as well. Then Collinsworth went down with a season-ending injury. Kick Davies off the team and Hartsock is the only one left that BYU can count on. They went from a load of potential to a load of...something else.
Deep Tournament Runs?
There were some NCAA Tournament games that BYU was not going to match up well in. Those teams that BYU might face in the Elite Eight or Final Four were going to be tough as it was: Kansas, Ohio State, and Purdue. Now those teams are unbeatable for BYU. BYU was going to have a tough time slowing the Morris twins, Jared Sullinger, or Purdue's two-headed beast in the post. Now there simply are not the bodies to compete. How is Charles Abouo or James Anderson going to slow down guys that 6'8" big-bodied, athletic, well-coached players have had a tough time slowing down? Against KU, BYU would lose the rebounding battle by 10-20. Much like, prior to the football season, BYU had no chance against Florida State and TCU, if BYU has one of these teams in their path, they will be eliminated.
BYU's Sweet 16/Elite Eight Prospects?
Games that were going to be really tough match-ups in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, now become uphill battles: Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, and San Diego State. These teams have solid players at both the 4 and the 5. BYU will have a tough time keeping them from getting good shots in teh post and keeping them off the offensive glass. I wouldn't like our chances against any of these teams either, though it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Round of 32 Struggles Too?
Games that BYU might have struggled a bit in the Round of 32 will suddenly become really tough games: Kentucky, Georgetown, George Mason, and Texas A&M. I think offensively, BYU can still compete with these types of teams, it's on the defensive side that BYU is really hurt here.
Overall Outlook
BYU will really have to shoot well in the tournament. They will have to outscore people now. The prospects for stopping other teams and securing defensive rebounds will be a whole lot tougher now. The good news is: they can do it. The bad news is: even great shooters have an off-night every 6 games (it takes 6 NCAA Tournament wins to win it all...). With Jimmer, you can never count BYU out, even if the matchups are completely out of whack on the interior.
Even though whatever Davies did was a personal choice, probably knowing it was wrong, you can't help but feel for the young man. BYU was in the midst of a magical season, with quite possibly their best team ever. How will he handle the feeling of disappointing his teammates, his family, and BYU nation? They went from Final Four contender to "can they get out of the first weekend" again. I hope he can overcome this and become a better man. BYU will have its own struggles to overcome this and not become a worse team. They are still a good team, but they took a big inside hit. Does the Jimmer have it in him to carry the team on his back for 4-6 NCAA Tournament games? If BYU can't stop anyone inside, would it be enough anyway?
BYU very much resembles a poor man's Big East team: all about the guard play, with one big body down low. Looking even further, BYU has essentially become a similar team to last year's team with no real inside scoring presence. The other downside is the lack of offensive rebounding and the defense BYU gets from the 4 is that much worse. At this point, BYU should be able to still secure a trip to the Sweet 16. At that point, it's all about matchups. And the chances are not good that BYU will match up well from that point on...
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Davies is Done. What About BYU?
For those of you BYU fans living under a rock, Brandon Davies was suspended for the remainder of the season for an honor code violation.
Short-Term Impact
BYU has two regular season games left. Assuming that BYU has 6 or 7 healthy guys to put out there, they should be able to win both of those games. New Mexico plays small anyway, so having an extra small guy out there may actually be somewhat helpful. Wyoming is bad and don't exactly command a lot of attention in the post anyway. Davies can do a lot of things at both ends of the floor. He rebounds well. But BYU shouldn't need what he brings to the table in these final two games. The rest of their players, including James Anderson, should be able to handle it and shoulder the load. Against these two perimeter-oriented teams, Davies could have dominated inside, but BYU can counter with more perimeter players of their own.
Medium-Term Impact
BYU will have a tough time beating SDSU, if the two meet in the MWC Final, without Davies. His stat line may not have been great this past Saturday, but he had 3 rebounds in the last 3 minutes that prevented the Aztecs from getting second chance opportunities and scoring points and potentially making a game out of it. A potential matchup against CSU in the Semifinals also gets that much trickier. James Anderson cannot even slow down the Rams big men, so BYU will need big minutes out of Logan Magnusson and Noah Hartsock.
Depth is a big concern. BYU was already thin at the 5. Davies played a lot of minutes there. Anderson can give you a few effective minutes/game. Tops. Hartsock can fill the void (and will have to). Everyone else has to slide up a spot and play more minutes. But some guys have already logged a lot of minutes this season. Certainly no one playing the 4 and 5 spots can get in foul trouble now. Anderson and Magnusson cannot just be thrown in to use up their fouls: they may need to stay out there for extended periods to give Noah a rest. No injuries can occur. At any position. The team was 7.5 deep. Now it is 6.5. If any of those 6.5 can't play every possible required minute, BYU cannot afford to play tough defense. Everybody who can score will have to pick it up, because Anderson and Magnusson cannot score, and Collinsworth and Abouo won't be as effective at the 4 (if you can call anything Collinsworth has done on offense the past month 'effective').
NCAA Tournament Impact
As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, I think the final impact of Davies' departure may actually be minimal. The teams that have multiple dominant big men were going to give BYU a problem anyway. Even with Davies, BYU may have been knocked off by superior inside play. Without him it will certainly take stellar shooting and team defense. And the Jimmer.
Davies played well at home against good big men, but wasn't nearly as dominant of a force on the road. What this really means is: BYU does not have the inside presence to beat many of the teams seeded 1st through 5th, though may still be OK against those seeded lower than that. It does reduce the possibility of a Final Four run (which, let's be honest, was probably a pretty slim possibility anyway, given that BYU was going to have to survive at least two of those higher mentioned seeds to get there), but I don't think it will impact the opportunity to get into the Sweet 16, and perhaps even the Elite Eight.
Impact on Jimmer
This could actually be a blessing in disguise for BYU's offense. Davies was a presence inside. He could score with a variety of moves, and was capable of putting up 20 every night. He could also step out and hit 10-15 footers with reasonable success. BYU cannot just put "the next guy" in and duplicate his production inside. But his presence inside also meant that there were two bodies between Jimmer and the hoop every possession. Opposing centers could camp there, waiting for Jimmer to beat his man off the dribble.
Now it opens the floor. Opposing teams 4's will have to move outside to cover the likes of Charles Abouo, Stephen Rogers, and Kyle Collinsworth. Opposing 5's will have to respect Hartsock's ability to sink the 3, so they can't get too caught up inside either. Even if teams do stay inside, it leaves Jimmer more room to get out of tight spots and fewer bodies around to clog the lane, it will probably reduce his turnovers, and it will leave capable shooters open on the outside. Hartsock can post up too (although not nearly as effectively as Davies), there just wasn't much need to with Davies out there. Though it remains to be seen how effectively he can post-up against opponent's starting big man. A lot of opposing players and coaches have talked about BYU's ability to spread you out, now that ability will be even more enhanced. What the Cougars lose in inside scoring, they may be able to make up for with Calipari-style offense (without the recruiting violations): spread the floor, shoot the 3, penetrate off the dribble.
The Team
This particular BYU team seems to rally around adverse conditions. Well, here is an opportunity to prove how tough they are mentally. Again. Can they rise to the occasion? Again? I believe they can do that, at least for the next three (easy) games. I am not sure about after that. Bonding together is nice and all, but when you don't have the horses, all of the chemistry in the world can't help you. In basketball, the size of the dog in the fight matters too, and BYU will be running out there with one fewer pitbulls. Although after watching this team against SDSU on Saturday, it's tough to argue that they will not move on from this and still be a great team.
Short-Term Impact
BYU has two regular season games left. Assuming that BYU has 6 or 7 healthy guys to put out there, they should be able to win both of those games. New Mexico plays small anyway, so having an extra small guy out there may actually be somewhat helpful. Wyoming is bad and don't exactly command a lot of attention in the post anyway. Davies can do a lot of things at both ends of the floor. He rebounds well. But BYU shouldn't need what he brings to the table in these final two games. The rest of their players, including James Anderson, should be able to handle it and shoulder the load. Against these two perimeter-oriented teams, Davies could have dominated inside, but BYU can counter with more perimeter players of their own.
Medium-Term Impact
BYU will have a tough time beating SDSU, if the two meet in the MWC Final, without Davies. His stat line may not have been great this past Saturday, but he had 3 rebounds in the last 3 minutes that prevented the Aztecs from getting second chance opportunities and scoring points and potentially making a game out of it. A potential matchup against CSU in the Semifinals also gets that much trickier. James Anderson cannot even slow down the Rams big men, so BYU will need big minutes out of Logan Magnusson and Noah Hartsock.
Depth is a big concern. BYU was already thin at the 5. Davies played a lot of minutes there. Anderson can give you a few effective minutes/game. Tops. Hartsock can fill the void (and will have to). Everyone else has to slide up a spot and play more minutes. But some guys have already logged a lot of minutes this season. Certainly no one playing the 4 and 5 spots can get in foul trouble now. Anderson and Magnusson cannot just be thrown in to use up their fouls: they may need to stay out there for extended periods to give Noah a rest. No injuries can occur. At any position. The team was 7.5 deep. Now it is 6.5. If any of those 6.5 can't play every possible required minute, BYU cannot afford to play tough defense. Everybody who can score will have to pick it up, because Anderson and Magnusson cannot score, and Collinsworth and Abouo won't be as effective at the 4 (if you can call anything Collinsworth has done on offense the past month 'effective').
NCAA Tournament Impact
As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, I think the final impact of Davies' departure may actually be minimal. The teams that have multiple dominant big men were going to give BYU a problem anyway. Even with Davies, BYU may have been knocked off by superior inside play. Without him it will certainly take stellar shooting and team defense. And the Jimmer.
Davies played well at home against good big men, but wasn't nearly as dominant of a force on the road. What this really means is: BYU does not have the inside presence to beat many of the teams seeded 1st through 5th, though may still be OK against those seeded lower than that. It does reduce the possibility of a Final Four run (which, let's be honest, was probably a pretty slim possibility anyway, given that BYU was going to have to survive at least two of those higher mentioned seeds to get there), but I don't think it will impact the opportunity to get into the Sweet 16, and perhaps even the Elite Eight.
Impact on Jimmer
This could actually be a blessing in disguise for BYU's offense. Davies was a presence inside. He could score with a variety of moves, and was capable of putting up 20 every night. He could also step out and hit 10-15 footers with reasonable success. BYU cannot just put "the next guy" in and duplicate his production inside. But his presence inside also meant that there were two bodies between Jimmer and the hoop every possession. Opposing centers could camp there, waiting for Jimmer to beat his man off the dribble.
Now it opens the floor. Opposing teams 4's will have to move outside to cover the likes of Charles Abouo, Stephen Rogers, and Kyle Collinsworth. Opposing 5's will have to respect Hartsock's ability to sink the 3, so they can't get too caught up inside either. Even if teams do stay inside, it leaves Jimmer more room to get out of tight spots and fewer bodies around to clog the lane, it will probably reduce his turnovers, and it will leave capable shooters open on the outside. Hartsock can post up too (although not nearly as effectively as Davies), there just wasn't much need to with Davies out there. Though it remains to be seen how effectively he can post-up against opponent's starting big man. A lot of opposing players and coaches have talked about BYU's ability to spread you out, now that ability will be even more enhanced. What the Cougars lose in inside scoring, they may be able to make up for with Calipari-style offense (without the recruiting violations): spread the floor, shoot the 3, penetrate off the dribble.
The Team
This particular BYU team seems to rally around adverse conditions. Well, here is an opportunity to prove how tough they are mentally. Again. Can they rise to the occasion? Again? I believe they can do that, at least for the next three (easy) games. I am not sure about after that. Bonding together is nice and all, but when you don't have the horses, all of the chemistry in the world can't help you. In basketball, the size of the dog in the fight matters too, and BYU will be running out there with one fewer pitbulls. Although after watching this team against SDSU on Saturday, it's tough to argue that they will not move on from this and still be a great team.
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