Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Thirteen

Crossing the 50
BYU scored on all 7 possessions when they crossed the 50-yard line: 2 field goals and 5 TDs.  This was the best game so far this season at finishing drives.

BYU-Utah Common Opponents
UNLV:
Utah 38-10 home win, BYU 55-7 home win; advantage BYU
New Mexico:
Utah 56-14 road win, BYU 40-7 home win; advantage Utah
Wyoming:
Utah 30-6 road win, BYU 25-20 home win; advantage Utah
Colorado State:
Utah 59-6 home win, BYU 49-10 road win; even
Air Force:
Utah 28-23 road win, BYU 35-14 road loss; advantage Utah
TCU:
Utah 47-7 home loss, BYU 31-3 road loss; advantage BYU (if you can call a 28-point loss an advantage)
SDSU:
Utah 38-34 road win, BYU 24-21 home win; advantage Utah

In the battle of head-to-head opponents, Utah leads 4-2-1.  Utah is 6-1 against those opponents and BYU is 5-2.

The (Even Bigger) BCS Mess
A lot has been made about which undefeated non-AQ team would finish ahead of the other.  It seems obvious now that Boise State will be the one on top, should both teams go undefeated.
A lot has been made about potential 1-loss teams jumping them.  The buffer between the undefeated non-AQ teams and the 1-loss BCS teams is sufficient, given that none of them have a marquee matchup left this season to jump them.
A lot has been made about a chance a non-AQ team could play for the National Championship.  It is obviously possible, should Auburn or Oregon lose a game.
People are starting to come around to the fact I would like to discuss, which I feel is the biggest mess of all: could we have an undefeated non-AQ team ranked in the top 5 not get into a BCS bowl?  Boise State went undefeated two years ago and got snubbed, but they were ranked 9th at the time.  So here is the math, as I see it:

6 BCS conference champions go to a BCS game.  Mo predicts Oregon, Oklahoma (beats OK State then Nebraska: they don't call him Big Game Bob for no reason), Wisconsin (wins a tie-breaker with Michigan State and/or Ohio State), South Carolina (beats Auburn: tough for Auburn to beat them TWICE this season, the first was a one TD win at Auburn in September), Virginia Tech (beats NC State or Florida State), and Pittsburgh (I believe they can beat West Virginia in the backyard brawl)
1 undefeated non-AQ team goes to a BCS game.  Mo has always been on the Boise State bandwagon.  I believe they have a very good chance to play for a National Championship, given that I believe Auburn will struggle to beat both Alabama and South Carolina.  A loss in either game probably puts them out and Boise State in.
That leaves 3 at-large bids.  Barring major upsets: Stanford, Ohio State, and either LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas would finish second in their respective BCS conferences, with their only losses coming at the hands of the conference/division champion.  They would all be ahead in the line for at-large bids to a BCS game.  I do not see how there is room for another undefeated non-AQ team with a miniscule fan base, in a tiny market (or as an after-thought in a large market), even if they are ranked #3 or 4.

LSU plays at Arkansas with the winner being in prime position for the 2nd bid from the SEC.  Or if Alabama beats Auburn, they would be in position to do so.  Or if Auburn does not get the auto-bid by winning the SEC title game, then they would be in position to get a bid.  I do not see any BCS bowl game "taking the hit" by selecting TCU/Boise State over Ohio State or a second SEC team.  Stanford might be the only school that a BCS bowl would even consider leaving out in favor of TCU.

Talk about fan bases, talk about tradition, talk about TV ratings, talk about worthy teams: Stanford, Ohio State, and LSU have it.  No one could argue that an 11-1 LSU, Stanford, or Ohio State whose only losses come to top 6 teams isn't as worthy as an undefeated TCU or Boise State who never had an opportunity to lose to a top 6 team.  In my mind, this is the place where strength of schedule argument holds sway (and no non-BCS school can cry about it): if Stanford's only loss is to #1 Oregon or LSU's to #2 Auburn, how could they be any less worthy than a team who didn't play a team in the top 10?  I believe that Boise State or TCU could go 11-1 or 12-0 in a BCS conference, but there is a big difference in 11-1 and 12-0 this season: it is the difference between Oregon and Stanford, or Auburn and LSU.  Would they be the undefeated Oregon team, or would they be the 1-loss Stanford?  Who knows.

I do know that Boise State, TCU, Stanford, LSU, and Ohio State all have something in common: they beat every team they played outside the top 10.  All of them are worthy of BCS games at this point.  Only 2 of them have a legitimate argument for the National Championship though, and they aren't the teams from the BCS conferences.  The problem is that only 4 of the 5 can go to a BCS game and perhaps none of them can go to the National Championship.

The problem wouldn't be any easier in a 4 or 8-team playoff system either, unless the automatic bid for Big East and ACC teams was removed.  Knowing that a playoff is not possible, I would simply remove the automatic bid for any conference and state: the 7 highest-rated conference champions (or, starting next season, 6) get BCS bids.  Then it wouldn't be Pittsburgh and TCU or Boise State, it would be TCU and Boise State.  If a conference can't get their champion in the top 15, how good is their champion/conference anyway?