I don't really have much to add to my pregame prediction: it was pretty spot on (for the first time ever). BYU was very good at times. UConn was bad most of the time. I've heard one phrase this week that I have to laugh at: UConn is rebuilding. Sorry, UConn is building: they've never been good. Now, a couple of thoughts:
First, the OL did a pretty solid job, considering 2 freshmen started. They weren't great opening holes in the middle in the running game, but Anae was able to work around that with the triple option look, getting guys outside/in space. There were quite a few penalties on the group but I'll call a spade a spade: a lot of the refs calls tonight were questionable, on both sides. For a line that was all over the place in spring and fall camp, I think they performed reasonably well against one of the bigger defensive fronts they will see this year.
Second, Zac Stout was fantastic. He attacked in the middle. He took on blockers, he made tackles, he was a disruptive force. If he can stay healthy, he's going to have a great year. I think the middle linebackers played well for most of the game. They helped the front 7 pretty well control the line of scrimmage. UConn tried to run the ball, and they had a little bit of success late in the 2nd Q and early in the 3rd, but couldn't maintain it.
Third, the first half, the pass rush didn't quite get there. In the second half, Bronco brought a lot more pressure, particularly from the secondary, but also from the MLBs. As a result, the "normal" pass rushers also managed to break through. I think that's something BYU has to take a look at doing against Texas. They can't afford to not get pressure for a whole half.
Fourth, I don't think there's a great WR on this team like Hoffman, but I like the group as a whole. Guys weren't dropping passes. They were getting open. They were making plays, getting yards after the catch. There isn't a go-to receiver, which may hurt in games against Texas, UCF, and Boise State, but there's also a benefit to having a couple of reliable guys. 9 guys made catches, no Ross Apo, no Devon Blackmon, no Trey Dye. Those 3 should add something and provide some additional depth and play-making ability in the coming weeks and months. Jordan Leslie is a great blocker, I'd like to see what he can do as a pass catcher. TEs were non-existent: Devin Mahina had one catch.
Fifth, the secondary was very good. They made plays on the ball, had big hits, tackled well in space, and covered well. With two starters out, they did that. Yes, UConn had 284 yards passing, but it took 48 passes to get there. Additionally, when the game was on the line, they performed well. BYU only gave up 95 passing yards in the first half when the outcome was still in question and they defended well in the red zone in the 4th quarter.
I think it's a team that's going to get better. A lot of the first half penalties I don't blame BYU, the refs were ridiculous. In the 2nd half, the penalties were all earned and stupid. The running game will get better with Jamaal Williams back. I don't think BYU really committed to running the football tonight in his absence like they otherwise would have. It will be interesting to see how much they commit to it against a bigger, faster, stronger, better coached Texas front 7 next week.
I'm sure we'll see games where the passing attack does more, but Taysom was on, the OL protected well, the WRs caught balls. I think BYU will get better, they will get challenged at Texas next week in a way they weren't tonight. I applaud BYU for being willing to play on the road against a mediocre (but still a step above FCS) team. I think we learned a heck of a lot more about BYU than if we had hosted Idaho State and blown them out in week one.
In other notes: UTSA demolished Houston tonight. My model originally had them winning at Houston, but after some tweaks I made, it moved them to a 0.5-point underdog. The model had them winning every other game on the schedule. I said to pay attention to them this year, but now I say: really watch out for them! They host Arizona next week and play at OK State the week after that. It's an impressive early schedule and I thought they were an impressive team tonight.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Thursday, August 28, 2014
BYU at UConn: Prediction for 2014 Season Opener
BYU never likes to make it easy on themselves. 2 more players/starters have been suspended for tomorrow's season opener against UConn. I'm going to say what I've been telling people for weeks: it's UConn. If BYU is ANY good at all, the injuries and suspensions to a half dozen skill position starters should not matter one lick. BYU should be able to absolutely maul UConn in the trenches.
Connecticut is big but untested on both lines. BYU is big and quite experienced, a little less so on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of the skill positions, the injured and suspended players gave BYU a distinct advantage on the outside as well as at the point of attack. Now the advantage is gone, but shouldn't become a disadvantage. From my perspective, the backups should be as good as UConn's starters. BYU has out-recruited UConn for years. The place where BYU might be in trouble is in terms of fatigue or injury which would force the (now) backups (former 3rd stringers) into action. I don't think I like BYU's 3rd string against UConn's 1st string. But I think the 2nd string should hold their own.
UConn is just not a good football team. They have had two decent seasons in their entire football existence (and by decent I mean they went 8-5 in a watered-down Big Least). And that was 2 coaches ago. They will be better than last season's 3-9 team. But if BYU fans believe their team has what it takes to win 9/10 games this season, this is a walk in the park.
What I sense from BYU fans is that they really aren't sold on the state of the program right now. There are plenty of blue-goggled folks who want to bestow apostleship on Bronco. I'm not talking about those folks. I have said the entire off-season, BYU is one more mediocre season from losing the fan base. A loss, or even a tight battle, against UConn would be the first step down that path.
Some BYU fans think the betting line is too big. Here's how I see it: BYU's O should put up 27 points. With Taysom Hill, an experienced OL, 2/3 decent RBs, and a wide variety of skillsets at WR/TE, 4 TDs (or 3 TDs and 2 FGs) should not be very hard against a team that gave up over 30 points/game last season, while only playing 3 teams with offenses as good as BYU's. New season, new coach, new system, same players. They had a lot of improvement to make; they probably made quite a bit. But BYU should score 27 points at least. There wasn't enough time to improve that much.
This was also an offense that struggled to do much last season. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They are playing the two-QB system game. I have seen this work only once and I've seen it fail many times. Many coaches fear making the wrong choice when it's close between 2 guys. I say, if you choose to play 2 QBs, you guarantee that you made the wrong choice. You cannot be right! As such, UConn should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently, even against a secondary down 2 starters. 13 points, maybe 17. That's about as much as their O should score against a BYU D that figures to be down a bit this season, particularly against the run.
Special teams and turnovers can also play roles in scoring, but taking those out of the equation: BYU should score 27+, UConn should score 17 or less. In season opening games, there is a very fine line between scoring 21 and 35: a penalty here, a dropped pass there. But if the BYU offense is clicking, it doesn't take much time for 27 to become 38 or 41. If the two QB system implodes for UConn (which it will eventually this season, just don't know if that's the first game or not), then even 17 becomes a tough number to hit.
My best estimate for Friday night at UConn: BYU 34, UConn 13.
Connecticut is big but untested on both lines. BYU is big and quite experienced, a little less so on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of the skill positions, the injured and suspended players gave BYU a distinct advantage on the outside as well as at the point of attack. Now the advantage is gone, but shouldn't become a disadvantage. From my perspective, the backups should be as good as UConn's starters. BYU has out-recruited UConn for years. The place where BYU might be in trouble is in terms of fatigue or injury which would force the (now) backups (former 3rd stringers) into action. I don't think I like BYU's 3rd string against UConn's 1st string. But I think the 2nd string should hold their own.
UConn is just not a good football team. They have had two decent seasons in their entire football existence (and by decent I mean they went 8-5 in a watered-down Big Least). And that was 2 coaches ago. They will be better than last season's 3-9 team. But if BYU fans believe their team has what it takes to win 9/10 games this season, this is a walk in the park.
What I sense from BYU fans is that they really aren't sold on the state of the program right now. There are plenty of blue-goggled folks who want to bestow apostleship on Bronco. I'm not talking about those folks. I have said the entire off-season, BYU is one more mediocre season from losing the fan base. A loss, or even a tight battle, against UConn would be the first step down that path.
Some BYU fans think the betting line is too big. Here's how I see it: BYU's O should put up 27 points. With Taysom Hill, an experienced OL, 2/3 decent RBs, and a wide variety of skillsets at WR/TE, 4 TDs (or 3 TDs and 2 FGs) should not be very hard against a team that gave up over 30 points/game last season, while only playing 3 teams with offenses as good as BYU's. New season, new coach, new system, same players. They had a lot of improvement to make; they probably made quite a bit. But BYU should score 27 points at least. There wasn't enough time to improve that much.
This was also an offense that struggled to do much last season. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They are playing the two-QB system game. I have seen this work only once and I've seen it fail many times. Many coaches fear making the wrong choice when it's close between 2 guys. I say, if you choose to play 2 QBs, you guarantee that you made the wrong choice. You cannot be right! As such, UConn should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently, even against a secondary down 2 starters. 13 points, maybe 17. That's about as much as their O should score against a BYU D that figures to be down a bit this season, particularly against the run.
Special teams and turnovers can also play roles in scoring, but taking those out of the equation: BYU should score 27+, UConn should score 17 or less. In season opening games, there is a very fine line between scoring 21 and 35: a penalty here, a dropped pass there. But if the BYU offense is clicking, it doesn't take much time for 27 to become 38 or 41. If the two QB system implodes for UConn (which it will eventually this season, just don't know if that's the first game or not), then even 17 becomes a tough number to hit.
My best estimate for Friday night at UConn: BYU 34, UConn 13.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
G5 Top 10
Now that the BCS is officially gone, the non-BCS schools get the moniker of G5 instead of non-BCS. I guess I'll try to get used to this crazy new college football world we live in. Normally, I would go through and pick my G5 top 10 on my own, but I put a lot of time and effort into the statistical quantification of my gut ("the model"), so I'll just go with my top 10 from the model, with one replacement, and some reshuffling. The prediction for each of the teams is for 10+ wins this season. One of the conference champions will get a chance in a major bowl game, but it's tough to imagine how that selection will go. My money would be on Houston (or whichever other American Athletic Conference team manages an 11-1 record) strictly based on NIU's easy schedule and performance in their last BCS appearance. Marshall would be a great story: a return to prominence for a fallen program, but again, the schedule is even easier than NIU's.
#1 BYU, 11-1
#2 NIU 12-0
#3 Marshall 12-0
#4 Houston 11-1
#5 UTSA 11-1
#6 Fresno State 10-2
#7 Louisiana 11-1
#8 Old Dominion 11-1
#9 Utah State 11-2
#10 Navy 10-2
UCF is actually #10 in the model, but, at 8-4 (where the model projects them), I don't think we'll see them in the rankings where a 10-3 or 11-2 Utah State or 10-2 Navy team would get more love. Boise State is in a similar situation: I think they belong in the G5 top 10, but the model projects them with 3 losses prior to playing at Fresno in the MWC Title Game. I don't envision a scenario where a 9-4 Boise State team gets more votes in any poll than one of these teams at season's end.
There are plenty of opportunities to watch these teams head-to-head to sort it out. NIU, Navy, and Louisiana are the only teams that do not play someone else on the list. BYU plays Houston and Utah State (or UCF if I leave them at #10). I think Houston might be the best of the bunch, but the cream will rise.
A few other notes about the 2014 version of the model. Last season, the biggest problem I had was that nearly every conference champion was projected to go 12-0 and the worst team in most conferences was predicted to go winless (or 1-11 if they played an FCS team). That was not the case this season with just 4 undefeated teams: Florida State, Oklahoma, NIU, and Marshall. Florida State will be tested at Louisville, Oklahoma plays its toughest games at home, NIU plays at Northwestern and Arkansas, and Marshall plays at ODU (and would face UTSA in CUSA Title Game) but has nothing else of consequence on the schedule for a top 50 type of team. UMass is the only team projected 0-12. That's a step in the right direction.
Usually, I use the model to find those teams that are poised to have a good year that no one is really talking about (although, these days, the G5 teams are getting less love than they have in a decade, so no one is talking about any of them). The conferences all had at least one team that surprised me and may very well be the storylines as we head into December.
American: East Carolina
ACC: Duke
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas and TCU
CUSA: UTSA and ODU
MAC: Toledo and Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
Pac 12: Washington
SEC: Ole Miss (though same thing happened last year...)
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Independents: Navy (aided by easy schedule) and BYU
Most of these teams are not traditional powers in their conferences. It would be nice if this played out as my model suggests. I think the underdog is good for college sports. Baseball fans who don't cheer for the Yankees tend to hate the Yankees. It's the same in college football: those tired of the usual guard at top will always cheer incessantly for a dog from the bottom!
#1 BYU, 11-1
#2 NIU 12-0
#3 Marshall 12-0
#4 Houston 11-1
#5 UTSA 11-1
#6 Fresno State 10-2
#7 Louisiana 11-1
#8 Old Dominion 11-1
#9 Utah State 11-2
#10 Navy 10-2
UCF is actually #10 in the model, but, at 8-4 (where the model projects them), I don't think we'll see them in the rankings where a 10-3 or 11-2 Utah State or 10-2 Navy team would get more love. Boise State is in a similar situation: I think they belong in the G5 top 10, but the model projects them with 3 losses prior to playing at Fresno in the MWC Title Game. I don't envision a scenario where a 9-4 Boise State team gets more votes in any poll than one of these teams at season's end.
There are plenty of opportunities to watch these teams head-to-head to sort it out. NIU, Navy, and Louisiana are the only teams that do not play someone else on the list. BYU plays Houston and Utah State (or UCF if I leave them at #10). I think Houston might be the best of the bunch, but the cream will rise.
A few other notes about the 2014 version of the model. Last season, the biggest problem I had was that nearly every conference champion was projected to go 12-0 and the worst team in most conferences was predicted to go winless (or 1-11 if they played an FCS team). That was not the case this season with just 4 undefeated teams: Florida State, Oklahoma, NIU, and Marshall. Florida State will be tested at Louisville, Oklahoma plays its toughest games at home, NIU plays at Northwestern and Arkansas, and Marshall plays at ODU (and would face UTSA in CUSA Title Game) but has nothing else of consequence on the schedule for a top 50 type of team. UMass is the only team projected 0-12. That's a step in the right direction.
Usually, I use the model to find those teams that are poised to have a good year that no one is really talking about (although, these days, the G5 teams are getting less love than they have in a decade, so no one is talking about any of them). The conferences all had at least one team that surprised me and may very well be the storylines as we head into December.
American: East Carolina
ACC: Duke
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas and TCU
CUSA: UTSA and ODU
MAC: Toledo and Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
Pac 12: Washington
SEC: Ole Miss (though same thing happened last year...)
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Independents: Navy (aided by easy schedule) and BYU
Most of these teams are not traditional powers in their conferences. It would be nice if this played out as my model suggests. I think the underdog is good for college sports. Baseball fans who don't cheer for the Yankees tend to hate the Yankees. It's the same in college football: those tired of the usual guard at top will always cheer incessantly for a dog from the bottom!
Monday, August 25, 2014
BYU Football: Mo's 2014 Predictions
After spending hours and hours over weeks and weeks, I got my model ready and got data entered for all 128 FBS teams. I then tested out the variables trying to quantify my gut. I usually pick the 5 teams I know the most intimately and benchmark my model's results against what I think about their season. I tweak the model until it matches for at least 4 out of the 5 teams. Last season, I managed to hit all 5 with the exact win-loss records I felt were appropriate for their season. This season, I could only manage to hit 4 of them. No matter how I altered my model, I could never get BYU to hit the 9-10 win mark, which is where I think they will probably land. Perhaps my model knows something that I don't.
Here is a look at BYU's opponents and how they fare in the model, from toughest game to easiest game.
1. Texas
Rating: 10
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: OL
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: Texas by 7
2. UCF
Rating: 44
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: BYU by 8
3. Boise State
Rating: 47
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB/OL
Greatest strength: 2010-2013 Results
Game result: BYU by 10
4. Houston
Rating: 33
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: DL
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 13
5. Utah State
Rating: 55
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: # of offensive starters returning
Greatest strength: QB
Game result: BYU by 23
6. Connecticut
Rating: 82
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: DL
Game result: BYU by 25
7. Middle Tennessee
Rating: 85
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 27
8. California
Rating: 90
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: # of projected senior starters
Greatest strength: recruiting
Game result: BYU by 29
9. Nevada
Rating: 74
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 31
10. Virginia
Rating: 86
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Conference Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 36
11. UNLV
Rating: 88
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: Coach win %
Greatest strength: OL
Game result: BYU by 37
12. Savannah State
Rating: FCS
Game result: BYU by 55
So, there it is, my model predicts BYU to go 11-1, playing Texas reasonably close on the road and beating every body else without too much difficulty. I couldn't move the needle no matter how I played with the model. I think that is partially a reflection of BYU and partially a reflection of the opponents. The model likes BYU. They have won a fair amount of games over the past 4 seasons, they have an experienced QB behind an experienced OL, they have a lot of starters coming back on both sides of the ball, they have a lot of seniors expected to contribute, and Bronco Mendenhall has a reasonably high career winning percentage.
I thought the model would like Houston, UCF, and Boise State a bit more than it does. I think Houston is going to be absolutely explosive on offense. UCF's defense may not be statistically as good as last season's dominant group b/c their offense won't help them out as much (BYU fans can relate to this), but they will probably be an all-around better defense and BYU may find it tough to drive down the field against them and will be hoping for big plays.
I think Boise State has been trending downward for 2 years now, Chris Peterson got out while he still could and I think we'll see one or two more seasons of 10 wins before Boise falls down to that 7-10 wins/season range. It will be tough to win on the blue turf, but my model doesn't think as much of Boise's team this particular season: there certainly are questions on offense and the undersized front 7 might not stand up for the duration of this season against a very run-heavy schedule. Boise State will face 7 consecutive "run-first" teams, with only one bye, before meeting BYU. BYU also gets them on a short week following the Broncos' rivalry game against Fresno State where my model projects BYU will be coming off a 31-point victory over Nevada.
I'm not sure I 100% like the results for games listed as 2-4 above, but I can wrap my ahead around all of the projections and feel good about #1 and 5-12. Is it Friday yet?
Here is a look at BYU's opponents and how they fare in the model, from toughest game to easiest game.
1. Texas
Rating: 10
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: OL
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: Texas by 7
2. UCF
Rating: 44
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: BYU by 8
3. Boise State
Rating: 47
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB/OL
Greatest strength: 2010-2013 Results
Game result: BYU by 10
4. Houston
Rating: 33
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: DL
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 13
5. Utah State
Rating: 55
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: # of offensive starters returning
Greatest strength: QB
Game result: BYU by 23
6. Connecticut
Rating: 82
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: DL
Game result: BYU by 25
7. Middle Tennessee
Rating: 85
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 27
8. California
Rating: 90
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: # of projected senior starters
Greatest strength: recruiting
Game result: BYU by 29
9. Nevada
Rating: 74
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 31
10. Virginia
Rating: 86
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Conference Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 36
11. UNLV
Rating: 88
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: Coach win %
Greatest strength: OL
Game result: BYU by 37
12. Savannah State
Rating: FCS
Game result: BYU by 55
So, there it is, my model predicts BYU to go 11-1, playing Texas reasonably close on the road and beating every body else without too much difficulty. I couldn't move the needle no matter how I played with the model. I think that is partially a reflection of BYU and partially a reflection of the opponents. The model likes BYU. They have won a fair amount of games over the past 4 seasons, they have an experienced QB behind an experienced OL, they have a lot of starters coming back on both sides of the ball, they have a lot of seniors expected to contribute, and Bronco Mendenhall has a reasonably high career winning percentage.
I thought the model would like Houston, UCF, and Boise State a bit more than it does. I think Houston is going to be absolutely explosive on offense. UCF's defense may not be statistically as good as last season's dominant group b/c their offense won't help them out as much (BYU fans can relate to this), but they will probably be an all-around better defense and BYU may find it tough to drive down the field against them and will be hoping for big plays.
I think Boise State has been trending downward for 2 years now, Chris Peterson got out while he still could and I think we'll see one or two more seasons of 10 wins before Boise falls down to that 7-10 wins/season range. It will be tough to win on the blue turf, but my model doesn't think as much of Boise's team this particular season: there certainly are questions on offense and the undersized front 7 might not stand up for the duration of this season against a very run-heavy schedule. Boise State will face 7 consecutive "run-first" teams, with only one bye, before meeting BYU. BYU also gets them on a short week following the Broncos' rivalry game against Fresno State where my model projects BYU will be coming off a 31-point victory over Nevada.
I'm not sure I 100% like the results for games listed as 2-4 above, but I can wrap my ahead around all of the projections and feel good about #1 and 5-12. Is it Friday yet?
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Last and Least: Mo's 2014 Sun Belt Conference Predictions
| ULL | 18 |
| South Alabama | 92 |
| ULM | 97 |
| Arkansas St | 100 |
| Appalachian St | 101 |
| Texas St | 105 |
| Troy | 112 |
| Georgia Southern | 113 |
| Idaho | 117 |
| NMSU | 125 |
| Georgia St | 128 |
| ULL | 8-0 |
| Arkansas State | 6-2 |
| Appalachian State | 6-2 |
| ULM | 5-3 |
| South Alabama | 5-3 |
| Texas State | 5-3 |
| Georgia Southern | 4-4 |
| Idaho | 2-6 |
| Troy | 2-6 |
| Georgia State | 1-7 |
| NMSU | 0-8 |
My model likes Louisiana Lafayette. Road games at Ole Miss and Boise State will be a challenge but I don't see anyone else in the conference with the combination of experience and experience at winning (a proxy for talent, or as much as can be said for a Sun Belt team). Arkansas State and Appalachian State are the only other two teams my model predicts to win 7+ games (an unwritten rule for Sun Belt teams to go bowling).
Independents: Mo's 2014 Predictions
Ratings:
Records:
Navy takes on a relatively easy schedule: neutral site games against Ohio State and Notre Dame, as well as Rutgers at home. Notre Dame's is decidedly more difficult with road contests against Florida State, Arizona State, and USC, as well as a difficult October test at home against Stanford. Notre Dame does look poised to beat Navy in the head-to-head matchup, but even that won't be a gimme for the Irish as they rebuild a bit in 2014. Looking ahead to 2015, I really like Notre Dame's team. They are a year too young right now to face such a daunting 2014 schedule.
| Notre Dame | 19 |
| Navy | 29 |
| Army | 110 |
Records:
| Navy | 10-2 |
| Notre Dame | 8-4 |
| Army | 3-9 |
Navy takes on a relatively easy schedule: neutral site games against Ohio State and Notre Dame, as well as Rutgers at home. Notre Dame's is decidedly more difficult with road contests against Florida State, Arizona State, and USC, as well as a difficult October test at home against Stanford. Notre Dame does look poised to beat Navy in the head-to-head matchup, but even that won't be a gimme for the Irish as they rebuild a bit in 2014. Looking ahead to 2015, I really like Notre Dame's team. They are a year too young right now to face such a daunting 2014 schedule.
SEC: Mo's 2014 Prediction
It's going to be a fun season to watch the SEC. I don't believe top-to-bottom the SEC has been far and away the best conference in America for years and years like ESPN has been touting for 8 years now. Their champion has been the best team in America over that time period. But until this year, I haven't seen the middle of the SEC as strong as they like to think it is. There really are 10 solid teams this year. I think the 8th best team in the SEC could compete for a conference title in every other league in America. I don't think they'd win it, but they'd compete.
Here is how my model rates the SEC teams, followed by conference standings.
Auburn beats South Carolina for the SEC Title. It'll be interesting to see how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee treats a 1-loss SEC champion. It seems almost a certainty that the SEC champ will have one loss. South Carolina has the best chance to go undefeated, but would have to win a game at Auburn to do it. Auburn plays 5 games that my model says will be decided by a touchdown or less. South Carolina only plays 2 such games (but one of them is at Auburn). I guess you could say my model doesn't like either of their chances to go undefeated.
Here is how my model rates the SEC teams, followed by conference standings.
| Auburn | 1 |
| South Carolina | 6 |
| Alabama | 8 |
| Georgia | 12 |
| Ole Miss | 13 |
| LSU | 17 |
| Missouri | 21 |
| Texas A&M | 24 |
| Mississippi St | 26 |
| Florida | 36 |
| Arkansas | 52 |
| Vanderbilt | 57 |
| Kentucky | 79 |
| Tennessee | 83 |
| West | |
| Auburn | 7-1 |
| LSU | 6-2 |
| Ole Miss | 6-2 |
| Alabama | 6-2 |
| Mississippi State | 4-4 |
| Texas A&M | 3-5 |
| Arkansas | 0-8 |
| East | |
| South Carolina | 7-1 |
| Missouri | 6-2 |
| Georgia | 5-3 |
| Florida | 3-5 |
| Vanderbilt | 2-6 |
| Tennessee | 1-7 |
| Kentucky | 0-8 |
Auburn beats South Carolina for the SEC Title. It'll be interesting to see how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee treats a 1-loss SEC champion. It seems almost a certainty that the SEC champ will have one loss. South Carolina has the best chance to go undefeated, but would have to win a game at Auburn to do it. Auburn plays 5 games that my model says will be decided by a touchdown or less. South Carolina only plays 2 such games (but one of them is at Auburn). I guess you could say my model doesn't like either of their chances to go undefeated.
Pac 12: Mo's 2014 Prediction
My model places the Pac 12 as the #2 conference in America behind the SEC. How tough will the Pac 12 be this season? My model has Stanford as the #5 team in America and my model predicts them to go 5-4 in Pac 12 play. If Colorado or California can find a way to win 4-6 of their combined non-conference games, or steal a couple in conference play, according to my model, the Pac 12 would jump the SEC as the best conference in America.
I do not believe Colorado will go winless. I do not see Utah getting all of the 3 Pac 12 wins my model predicts (though I think 3 is a good number, one upset and two of the three they "should" win). Stanford plays at Washington, at Arizona State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. They'll probably pull off one of those 4, but my model predicts 4 losses there, all by less than a TD. UCLA hosts Oregon in the Pac 12 Title game (a rematch of an earlier game won by UCLA): UCLA wins and heads on to represent the Pac 12 in the Inaugural College Football Playoff as a 2/3 seed, my guess is against the SEC champion. I've got to think Florida State runs the table and gets the #1 seed, in spite of a much easier schedule than every one else in the playoff. The SEC champ, whether that's Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or Missouri, isn't going to go 13-0.
| Oregon | 3 |
| UCLA | 4 |
| Stanford | 5 |
| Arizona St | 9 |
| Washington | 15 |
| USC | 16 |
| Oregon St | 30 |
| Utah | 51 |
| Washington St | 56 |
| Arizona | 61 |
| Colorado | 87 |
| California | 90 |
| North | |
| Oregon | 8-1 |
| Washington | 7-2 |
| Stanford | 5-4 |
| Oregon State | 4-5 |
| Washington State | 2-7 |
| California | 1-8 |
| South | |
| UCLA | 8-1 |
| USC | 7-2 |
| Arizona State | 7-2 |
| Utah | 3-6 |
| Arizona | 2-7 |
| Colorado | 0-9 |
I do not believe Colorado will go winless. I do not see Utah getting all of the 3 Pac 12 wins my model predicts (though I think 3 is a good number, one upset and two of the three they "should" win). Stanford plays at Washington, at Arizona State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. They'll probably pull off one of those 4, but my model predicts 4 losses there, all by less than a TD. UCLA hosts Oregon in the Pac 12 Title game (a rematch of an earlier game won by UCLA): UCLA wins and heads on to represent the Pac 12 in the Inaugural College Football Playoff as a 2/3 seed, my guess is against the SEC champion. I've got to think Florida State runs the table and gets the #1 seed, in spite of a much easier schedule than every one else in the playoff. The SEC champ, whether that's Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or Missouri, isn't going to go 13-0.
MWC: Mo's 2014 Prediction
The MWC sure has gone downhill lately. There is talk of Hawaii dissolving football altogether. After turning down multiple suitors for the last 5 years, Chris Peterson finally left Boise State: did he see the writing on the wall? Boise was trending slowly downward and the MWC was doing so more quickly. My model has them sliding below CUSA as the 8th best conference (or 3rd worst), with half the conference settling in the bottom 30 of all college football teams. Still, there is always some intrigue in the MWC with the triumvirate of Fresno State, Boise State, and Utah State. My model predicts the winner of the final regular season game between Utah State and Boise State to win the Mountain Division. The home field advantage gives Boise the close win. Fresno State, by virtue of higher BCS ranking, hosts the championship game where the home field gives them a win and a berth in the Vegas Bowl.
| Fresno St | 39 |
| Boise St | 47 |
| Utah St | 55 |
| San Diego St | 72 |
| Nevada | 74 |
| UNLV | 88 |
| Wyoming | 102 |
| Colorado St | 104 |
| New Mexico | 107 |
| San Jose St | 108 |
| Air Force | 116 |
| Hawaii | 122 |
| West | |
| Fresno State | 7-1 |
| Nevada | 6-2 |
| SDSU | 5-3 |
| UNLV | 4-4 |
| SJSU | 2-6 |
| Hawaii | 0-8 |
| Mountain | |
| Boise State | 8-0 |
| Utah State | 7-1 |
| Colorado State | 4-4 |
| Wyoming | 3-5 |
| Air Force | 1-7 |
| New Mexico | 1-7 |
CUSA and MAC: Mo's 2014 Predictions
Conference USA:
UTSA over Marshall in title game. UTSA looks like a legitimately good team this season. On paper they might have what it takes to go 12-0, even with games at Houston and OK State in addition to hosting Arizona. Model has them 11-1. Old Dominion also looks strong on paper. Those two teams are both somewhat new to FBS level, so perhaps it is only on paper that they look so good...
MAC:
NIU looks like the team to beat again. This is a very bottom heavy conference, so most of the half-decent teams end up with 7+ wins in an 8-game conference schedule. I look for Ohio to rebuild a little this season, come on strong at the end and spring themselves into a successful 2015 season. You heard it hear first, Bobcat fans, make your 2015 MAC Championship plans now!
| UTSA | 23 |
| Marshall | 31 |
| ODU | 42 |
| Rice | 69 |
| North Texas | 84 |
| MTSU | 85 |
| WKU | 94 |
| Louisiana Tech | 96 |
| FIU | 109 |
| UTEP | 111 |
| UAB | 118 |
| FAU | 119 |
| So Miss | 121 |
| CUSA | |
| East | |
| Marshall | 8-0 |
| ODU | 7-1 |
| MTSU | 6-2 |
| WKU | 3-5 |
| UAB | 1-7 |
| FIU | 1-7 |
| FAU | 1-7 |
| West | |
| UTSA | 8-0 |
| North Texas | 6-2 |
| Rice | 5-3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-4 |
| UTEP | 1-7 |
| Southern Miss | 1-7 |
UTSA over Marshall in title game. UTSA looks like a legitimately good team this season. On paper they might have what it takes to go 12-0, even with games at Houston and OK State in addition to hosting Arizona. Model has them 11-1. Old Dominion also looks strong on paper. Those two teams are both somewhat new to FBS level, so perhaps it is only on paper that they look so good...
MAC:
| NIU | 27 |
| Toledo | 58 |
| Buffalo | 66 |
| CMU | 68 |
| Bowling Green | 76 |
| Ball St | 91 |
| Akron | 95 |
| Ohio | 103 |
| EMU | 114 |
| Kent St | 120 |
| Miami (OH) | 123 |
| Massachusetts | 126 |
| WMU | 127 |
| MAC | |
| East | |
| Bowling Green | 7-1 |
| Buffalo | 7-1 |
| Ohio | 4-4 |
| Akron | 4-4 |
| Miami (OH) | 3-5 |
| Kent State | 1-7 |
| Massachusetts | 0-8 |
| West | |
| NIU | 8-0 |
| Toledo | 7-1 |
| CMU | 5-3 |
| Ball State | 4-4 |
| EMU | 2-6 |
| WMU | 0-8 |
NIU looks like the team to beat again. This is a very bottom heavy conference, so most of the half-decent teams end up with 7+ wins in an 8-game conference schedule. I look for Ohio to rebuild a little this season, come on strong at the end and spring themselves into a successful 2015 season. You heard it hear first, Bobcat fans, make your 2015 MAC Championship plans now!
Big XII: Mo's 2014 Predictions
For the 2nd straight year, my model predicts a straight line down the Big 12 Standings. OU goes 9-0, Iowa State 0-9, with someone occupying every spot in between. The Big 12 is rated as the 3rd best conference, with #3-8 in the conference really only separated by home field advantage.
I don't really like the symmetry of this, especially with so many close games being predicted. Every team seems to play at home against the team just worse than them and on the road against the team just better than them, which is what causes the symmetry. Iowa State is predicted to have 3 losses by less than 3 points and another one less than a TD. I'd be shocked to see them 0-9, especially with Kansas and West Virginia...
| Oklahoma | 7 |
| Texas | 10 |
| Baylor | 32 |
| TCU | 45 |
| Kansas St | 46 |
| OK State | 54 |
| Texas Tech | 65 |
| West Virginia | 67 |
| Iowa St | 80 |
| Kansas | 89 |
| Oklahoma | 9-0 |
| Texas | 8-1 |
| Baylor | 7-2 |
| TCU | 6-3 |
| Kansas State | 5-4 |
| OK State | 4-5 |
| Texas Tech | 3-6 |
| WVU | 2-7 |
| Kansas | 1-8 |
| Iowa State | 0-9 |
I don't really like the symmetry of this, especially with so many close games being predicted. Every team seems to play at home against the team just worse than them and on the road against the team just better than them, which is what causes the symmetry. Iowa State is predicted to have 3 losses by less than 3 points and another one less than a TD. I'd be shocked to see them 0-9, especially with Kansas and West Virginia...
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