Conspiracy Theory?

I am watching Indiana-Iowa right now. I am not much of a conspiracy theory kind of guy, but with DECENT officiating, Indiana would be ahead by 3 or 4 TDs. They have constantly been getting screwed! Missed holds on Iowa (obvious holds). The replay official is either an Iowa alum or a current member of the Iowa coaching staff. First the SEC, now the Big Ten, that is in addition to the always poor Pac 10. What is happening with the officiating? I'd like to think it's not intentional, but Iowa has received the benefit of the doubt EVERY time, and Indiana is getting the short end of the stick with great frequency! This isn't Indiana's first time getting hosed over. Against Michigan they had an extremely poor replay official overturn a call that ultimately cost them the game. Why do we even have replay if they get it wrong so much?!?

P.S. Iowa just took the lead. They should take this crew out to dinner after the game to thank them for keeping the game close enough for them to pull it out! Oh wait, that is probably already set up...

Weekend Predictions

Auburn over Ole Miss, high scoring (for the SEC) game, 31-17. Ole Miss has struggled on the road. Auburn needs to turn the ship around, not sure if Chizik can do it or not...
Southern Mississippi over Houston, 27-24. C-USA teams are familiar with Houston. That is how UTEP could beat Houston when OK State, Texas Tech, and Mississippi State could not. Southern Mississippi's defense is pretty good.
Miami beats Wake on the road, 31-20. A good defense can shut Miami down: Wake doesn't have one of those...
Florida over Georgia, 27-14. Not sold on Florida's O. Not sold on Georgia's O either though. I am sold on Florida's D, however.
Northwestern over Penn State, 20-13. Upset of the week right here. I hope. Go Wildcats!
Oklahoma over K-State, 38-10. K-State is on top of the Big 12 North? Wow, is Bill Snyder that good? Or is the Big 12 North that bad?
South Carolina over Tennessee, 16-12. Lot of field goals.
Texas over OK State, 31-20. Texas' O has struggled pretty mightily this season. I just don't think OK State's D is going to be good enough to prevent the Horns from moving the ball. I know OK State can move the ball against UT. But bend don't break defense works for the Longhorns: they stiffen up in the red zone, they force turnovers, and their front four has come a long ways.
Can USC's defense stop Oregon's offense? They better: Boise State's D did! I am not impressed with USC's O either. Barkley is a great freshman QB, but he isn't a great QB. However, he WILL be a great QB sometime in the next two years. I don't think USC's defense is good enough to hold Oregon down for 4 quarters on the road. Oregon is beatable though. This game is a toss-up to me: I'm going with the Ducks, 34-24.
Utah wears Wyoming down, 27-17. THIS Wyoming team is MUCH better offensively than the previous two that got blasted by Utah. THIS Utah team is MUCH worse offensively than the previous two that blasted Wyoming. Even with that said, last year, Utah won the game on turnovers: Wyoming held Utah to 200 yards of offense. I was there, the game was even besides the fumbles. Any Utah fan who was satisfied with that game is lying: their fans were booing the O off the field... If Wyoming takes care of the ball, they can win this game. However, there is no way Utah plays bad enough to lose, even though the Cowboys can probably keep it close.

Just win, baby

Winning is the name of the game. It doesn't matter how you do it, or how you look doing it. At the end of the day, a win gives you a chance to thrive in college football. Look at Florida, Alabama, Texas, Iowa, LSU, OK State, Utah, Notre Dame, etc. While teams like Boise State and TCU are blowing the competition away, on the road: these others do just enough to get by. And they continue to move up in the rankings.
While a team like Utah is out proving that you can win games and compete for conference championships with no real offense (16 points scored essentially on 3 plays: a fumble that bounced the right way and was taken to the house, 2 missed tackles on a simple slant that led to a 91-yard TD, and a field goal after a fumble by Air Force in their own territory), BYU is busy showing that you can easily get blown out at home with no real defense. Twice. One continues to move up, while the other moves out.
Iowa needed the full 60 minutes (plus 2 extra seconds) to score points 10 through 15 against Michigan State on the road, while Miami goes to actual extra time before finally falling to Clemson. One moves up, the other moves down.
Bama blocks two field goals to win by 2 (Iowa knows all about needing to block 2 field goals to win). Florida gets a bad call to go their way (two weeks in a row) to help seal the deal in their game. Texas got outplayed by OU for 3 quarters and comes away 3 points ahead. Those teams are in the top 3, because it's all about the W.
Just put up more points somehow, someway, and some time before the final whistle blows. The reward is great for those that do, the punishment severe for those who don't. (Only in the WAC can you win by 45 on the road and move down in the polls...)

A Long-Time Coming

On November 17, 2007, BYU took a 7-2 team to Laramie, Wyoming in a snowstorm. The Cowboys were 5-5, and still had hope of going to a bowl game by beating their self-proclaimed rivals. When all the snow had fallen and the 60 minutes had lapsed, BYU walked away with a 35-10 victory over Wyoming. The following day, the polls came out, the BCS standings came out, and BYU showed up between 23 and 25. In every week since then, BYU has showed up in the rankings and in the BCS standings. Until this week. For 29 consecutive polls, BYU has been there. Very few BCS teams have current streaks longer than that one and no non-BCS team does, despite what some avid Utah fans think.
BYU takes the week off before heading to Laramie with a 6-2 team in two weeks. With a win there, they can get another streak of top 25 rankings started. They might even get lucky and sneak back in this next week with a couple of losses ahead of them. The question then becomes how long could another streak really last: Utah is right around the corner and, if they do win out, they will get a Pac 10 opponent in their bowl game. If they win out, including the bowl game, they have a chance to be in the preseason polls next season. Anything short of an 11-2 finish to this season, and this next streak may not even last long enough to be considered a streak.

Disappointment for KU, BYU

Well, you might call them the anti-clutch, the chokers, or any number of things. Perhaps overrated is the first that comes to mind. BYU and Kansas have both looked less than spectacular the past few weeks: particularly on D. BYU and KU should combine defenses: BYU's LBs and safeties, KU's D-line and CBs. Maybe then either of these teams would have a chance in their respective conferences and divisions, but for now they are both out to prove the old adage: defense wins championships. Both took HUGE steps the wrong direction when it comes to staying in the hunt in their conference races. Both played at home, in marquee matchups, against big-time opponents, and both laid eggs. Big time eggs. No fight, poor coaching, lack of special teams play, penalties, failure to move the ball, failure to stop the opponent, etc. Anything that could go wrong did. Any time they nearly had seized momentum: a sack, a penalty, a turnover. Both teams were avenging big losses from last season. Both teams probably did worse. So much for revenge. How about revamp?

TCU-BYU, final saga

Either team, playing well, can win this game, and could win it convincingly. But defense wins championships, so the D that rises to the occasion wins the game. Obviously, TCU is the more likely to have the D that steps up, but I wouldn't put it past BYU's D to actually show up. Still, I like the Horned Frogs in this one, 28-20, over BYU. I hope I am wrong, and it certainly wouldn't be the first time, but TCU is the better team, and I think they are the better coached team. Go Cougars though: prove me wrong.
Please.
No seriously, please.

With a win by BYU, they move into the top 12 and just wait for Boise State to lose. With a win by TCU, they will probably pull closer to Boise State. I'm not sure if they will pass them though: the rest of TCU's schedule, outside of Utah, isn't much, if any, better than Boise State's.

Weekend predictions

Ohio State over Minnesota, 31-17.
Upset alert: Pitt escapes South Florida, 27-23.
Upset alert: Georgia Tech loses to an improving Virginia team, 23-20. Defense wins.
West Virginia over Connecticut, 27-17.
Ole Miss over Arkansas, 38-28.
Notre Dame over BC, 34-28. Two teams with no defense.
Upset alert: Michigan over Penn State, 27-17. Not impressed with Penn State's O.
Upset alert: Washington takes down another ranked opponent in Oregon, 20-17.
Upset alert: Oklahoma over KU, 31-28. Too many holes on KU's D, too many turnovers from their O. I'm sold on OU's D, but I am curious to see how the O plays on the road: they are 0-3 away from Norman, with 13, 20, and 13 points.
Upset alert: Miami ekes one over Clemson, 27-20. Finally, Miami does something against a real defense.
Navy over Wake Forest, 27-24.
Upset alert: Air Force over Utah, 24-17. Air Force/Utah games have been decided by 8 points or less for 4 straight games, I don't expect this to be any different. I am curious to see how Utah responds, as TCU and BYU have stolen/dominated the MWC (and national) headlines this week. Alternate score: Utah 42, Air Force 6.
Upset alert: Michigan State over Iowa, 26-16. Still not sold on Iowa: maybe after this game, but they'd have to dominate a decent team on the road...
Upset alert: LSU does win this one over Auburn, but it'll be close/tough, 27-21.
Florida over Mississippi State, 38-28.
USC over Oregon State, 34-24.
Upset alert: Texas does beat Missouri, 38-35.
Upset alert: Boise State takes one from the home-standing Hawaii Warriors, 42-38. That's old school WAC, baby!

Lot of upsets and potential upsets. Should be a fun weekend of games.

Testing Out A Theory

CBS Sportsline has 4 guys who pick winners of top 25 games each week. My theory is: all games where the spread is 10 points or less, if they all agree, pick the other team. If they disagree, pick the favorite. So based on my theory the following games should go the following way:

Georgia Tech is a 5.5 point favorite over Virginia: all 4 picked Georgia Tech. Virginia wins. I think this COULD happen.
Pitt is favored by 6.5 over South Florida: all 4 picked Pitt. South Florida should pull off the upset. I am less confident this one will happen, but it would be very Pitt-like to drop this game.
West Virginia by 7.5 over Connecticut: Connecticut wins. I disagree here again, though UConn has shown some grit this season.
OK State by 9.5 over Baylor: Baylor wins. Don't like how this theory is working so far.
Miami by 4.5 over Clemson: Clemson wins. I like this upset pick.
Oklahoma by 7.5 over KU: they disagree, so go with the favorite, OU. Very good choice.
Penn State by 4.5 over Michigan: they disagree, so pick Penn State. I'm torn on this one.
Oregon by 10 over UW: Washington pulls off another upset. I like this as well because UW's D could contain UO, and UO's D might not contain UW's O...
Utah by 9.5 over Air Force: Air Force. This game has been decided by 8 or less points each of the last 4 years, and Air Force won by 8 at Utah two years ago, so I definitely pick Air Force to beat the spread, maybe not the game, but hey, it's just a theory I'm testing this week.
Michigan State and Iowa is set at 0, so I don't have a theory on this. Pick the home team.
LSU by 7.5 over Auburn: Auburn. Could happen. LSU has shown vulnerabilities this year and has already lost at home (to Florida mind you, but I like the flow of Auburn's O over Florida's right now).
TCU by 2.5 over BYU: the CBS boys are split, so go with the favorite, TCU wins on the road. This is certainly a possibility, but I'm not giving away my prediction yet.

Quick prediction

Florida State 24, North Carolina 16.
FSU: good O, bad D
UNC: good D, bad O

This game probably looked a lot better in August, when both teams were ranked. In late October, however, it looks like a HUGE mistake to have chosen for the prime-time Thursday night game...oops. At least Game Day got it right by heading to Provo this weekend!

TCU-BYU part II

TCU's offense against BYU's defense.
Strength:
The Running Game
TCU's offense ranks 11th in the country at 225 yards/game, 26th at 4.7 yards/carry, and 5th in rushing TDs with 17. They are a fairly dynamic rushing attack in that they utilize a lot of different aspects. 1) the option game, particularly the speed option. This keeps the safeties honest. 2) the running QB. There are two different types of mobile QBs: the running QB and the mobile QB. TCU utilizes the running QB: he is a big part of the running game; he's involved in options, QB draws, and scrambles frequently when his first and second read aren't open. A mobile QB is the kind of QB who moves around the pocket well and scrambles only when he knows that tucking and running will be more effective. 3) end-arounds and reverses (i.e. they get the wide receivers involved in the running game). 4) the Wildcat, or Wildfrog in this case. Kerley is a great punt returner, and he uses those same skills very effectively from this formation.
BYU's defense ranks 23rd in the country at 101 yards/game, 44th at 3.5 yards/carry, and 38th in rushing TDs allowed with 7. Other than the Florida State game, no BYU opponent has rushed for more than 120 yards or more than 3.8 yards/carry. The problem is: the Florida State game counts. They got annihilated on the ground (and in the air, and in turnovers, etc.) to the tune of 313 yards, only 2 negative plays, and 6.4 yards/carry. TCU's run game is slightly similar in nature to Florida State's but the personnel are very different, which works to BYU's advantage. One, Ponder was a mobile QB, which BYU typically struggles with, but Dalton is more of a running QB, which BYU's defense hasn't had as big of problems with the past few years. Two, Florida State killed BYU with a small scat-back type runner, who hid behind the line and waited for an opening, BYU never got a good grasp on him as he wormed his way through the defense. TCU utilizes shifty power backs. BYU has some big hitters on D, so a power back won't really hurt them with missed tackles as much as a short, wiley kind of runner. When Kerley is involved in the run game, you will see a similar threat to what Florida State did, but you'll see it a lot less than the 25 or so carries FSU's guy had. One final note: Scott Johnson will play at Free Safety this game (he was out against FSU with a concussion). He does a great job keeping the defense in position. He's become a bit of a ball hawk with 3 picks in his last 2 games. He hits hard and plays hard. He makes a huge difference.
Thoughts: TCU's run offense is so dynamic and diverse, it gives teams fits. I don't anticipate BYU being able to consistently stop it, or if they do stop it, I expect that they will give up one or two BIG plays. I give the advantage to TCU's run O over BYU's run D.
Weakness:
The Passing Game
TCU's pass offense ranks 74th with 206 passing yards/game. You might say they have a balanced offense, since the reason they are 74th isn't because of an inefficient passing game so much as a less-used passing game. They use the passing game enough to keep teams from loading up on the run. They use a wide variety of running plays, which prevents them from needing the passing game as much. Another reason they rank so low: they are always holding on to a lead in the second half, so they run more than they throw. It is a weakness though, because if they NEED to rely on the passing game (the run game isn't working or they are behind), it might not be efficient over a long period of time.
BYU's pass defense ranks 89th in the country giving up 239 yards/game. Part of it is playing pass-oriented teams, part of it is getting ahead of teams early, part of it is just doing a good job of run defense and forcing teams to pass, and a large part of it is having a not great secondary. Their best cover corner is small, at 5'6" and probably 170 pounds. He does hit hard and is a sure tackler in the open field. Problem is, he can't prevent a completion, he only cuts down on yards after the catch. The other cover corner is fast but doesn't have the cleanest technique and change of direction abilities. He is bigger and plays the ball better, but he also isn't always close enough to the offensive player to make a play. The safeties are assignment sound and big hitters, but they are slow and prone to give up the deep ball. They are run-stopping safeties, essentially. The LBs do a decent job in coverage, but they aren't breaking up passes or getting interceptions consistently. The pass rush has also been an issue, as they rank 70th in the country in sacks/game. TCU does a good job protecting the QB, and, with Dalton's mobility, he doesn't get taken down behind the line of scrimmage very often.
Thoughts: if BYU can't get pressure on Andy Dalton, the secondary won't hold up. TCU is a run-first team, but can pass. The question is: can they rely on it to win the game? Dalton is an adequate thrower. He is a winner though and his receivers will be a tough cover for BYU. So weakness on weakness, I give the edge here, again, to TCU's passing O over BYU's passing D. Normally, I'm not sure they can rely on the passing game, but against BYU's soft zone coverage I believe they can.

TCU-BYU part I

I thought I'd take a couple of things to watch for with this weekend's game. First, I'll compare a strength and a weakness of BYU's offense with a strength and a weakness of TCU's defense.
Strength:
Third Down Conversions
BYU's O ranks 1st in the country in 3rd down conversions at a 64% conversion rate. This is nearly 7% higher than number 2, which is the biggest gap BY FAR between ANY 2 teams ranked next to each other. 3 factors for this. 1) BYU excels in the intermediate passing game. 3rd and 11 isn't such a daunting task for a team that averages more than that per completion (and they complete over 65% of their passes) and while it somewhat limits the playbook, there are still a lot of passing plays in the repertoire. 2) BYU has some bruising running backs and a big offensive line. 3rd and short should be a cakewalk when your O-line outweighs the D-line by 40 pounds a man, and your RBs weigh as much as or more than the opposing LBs. On 3rd and forever they have run draw plays and dragged defensive players 8-10 yards at the end of the play to get first downs. 3) The teams they have played just aren't that good at stopping third downs. Oklahoma is the only opponent BYU has played in the top 80 in 3rd down defense. In fact, BYU's average opponent allows offenses to convert 45.5% of the time, which would rank as the 105th worst team in the country. While some of that is attributable to the fact that each of BYU's opponents have played BYU, they have still played 5 or 6 other games and had the opportunity to lower that percentage.
TCU's D ranks 5th in the country in 3rd down conversions. I believe the answer here also can be summed up in 3 reasons. 1) The speed and aggressiveness of their defense forces more third and longs than most defenses do. They are 6th in the nation in sacks, so they can get to the QB and be disruptive. 2) The 4-2-5 scheme is very different from what teams are used to seeing. There is already an extra DB in for passing situations. QBs often get confused and flustered into making bad decisions. Gary Patterson helps his players disguise coverages and assignments better than most college coaches I've seen. It's tough to prepare for a TCU D in one week. 3) Similar to BYU, they haven't faced a lot of offensive juggernauts. TCU's 5 I-A opponents average a 3rd down conversion rate of 33.5%, which would rank 99th nationally.
Thoughts: Due to the third reason listed in each segment above, it is tough to tell if the BYU O and TCU D are just really good on third downs, or if they have benefited by playing teams that are just really bad at it. Either way, I think you have to give a slight edge to BYU's offense in this factor for two reasons. First, last season, even in a game dominated by TCU from start to finish, BYU hit their season average of 55% conversions on third down. That season average was good enough for 2nd in the country. So even TCU's disruptive D couldn't stop BYU on 3rd down. Second, BYU is so far ahead in this regard of every team in the country. Whether the OC has figured it out, or Max Hall is able to take his play on third downs to another level, or some other reason, BYU just seems to have it figured out and has been among the top teams in the country for 4 straight seasons.

Weakness:
Giveaways/Takeaways
BYU's offense ranks 93rd in the country in giveaways, or turnovers if you prefer. They are averaging just over 2/game. While they have shown improvement over the past two games, not turning it over a single time in two straight road wins, they haven't exactly played very stout defenses: those defenses couldn't stop the run, get pressure, or cover BYU's receivers, backs, and tight ends. BYU amassed over 1100 yards and nearly 100 points in those two games. BYU hasn't fumbled in 15 quarters after fumbling 5 times in the first 13 quarters. Most of the fumbles came from inexperienced WRs who were learning the hard way what Division I football is all about. It appears this is MOSTLY figured out. Interceptions are the main concern as a 5th year senior and 3rd year starter at QB threw 10 picks in the first 5 games. That isn't inexperience. Some of it was miscommunication, but a lot of it was greed and bad decision making. So BYU is 93rd in turnovers, while their opponents average out to be 68th in the country in takeaways. The only logical explanation for the disparity is that BYU is just turnover prone.
What's worse than BYU turning the ball over twice a game? TCU averages just over 1 takeaway a game. That is good for 107th in the country. That is bad. Offenses TCU's defense has faced are more likely to take care of the ball than defenses BYU's offense has seen are at taking it away: averaging out at 46th in the country in turnovers. But still, that does not explain why a defense that is so good at managing yards and points is so bad at forcing turnovers. If I had to guess at TCU's struggles at creating turnovers, I would say it boils down to 2 reasons. 1) They had a lot of new starters on D, particularly in the secondary where most of a teams INTs happen. 2) Their special teams is too good. The D forces a punt, they get a big return, the D barely gets a breather...ok, that one isn't as valid, considering TCU is 9th in the country in time of possession. Like I said: I'm just throwing out guesses: they should be good! They are good at everything else. Last year they were a top 30 D in takeaways. I don't get it.
Thoughts: BYU will give the ball away, if someone is willing to take it. I'm just not sure if TCU is willing and able. I definitely have to give the edge to TCU here though. Last year, TCU forced 4 turnovers: about 2 more than their average AND 2 more than BYU's average of giveaways. I'd say BYU turns it over 2 or 3 times in this game. When they occur and how costly they are will determine the outcome. I especially look for in the red zone or when it results in points for the opposition. Not getting points on the board when you are in chipshot field goal range can be a huge momentum and point swing. And any "pick 6" would also likely spell doom for the Cougars.

Quick side note

The first teams have been mathematically eliminated from bowl eligibility:
Rice
Miami (OH)
Ball State

A couple more have opportunities to eliminate themselves this weekend:
Eastern Michigan (but they play Ball State, so they might just stay alive for one more week)
New Mexico (hosting UNLV)
Western Kentucky (playing at Sun Belt darkhorse Middle Tennessee State, who is coming off of a beating by SEC West weak link Mississippi State)

As of now, 12 teams have become eligible for bowls by winning their 6th game. Idaho is BY FAR the biggest surprise of the group. Boise State has also won 6 games but is not yet eligible because they play 13 games this season, so must have 7 wins for bowl eligibility. The states of Idaho and Utah have better bowl prospects at this point than several other usually high-powered states. To name a few: Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia, Big 12 North country, and the entire northeast.

Why I love College Football!

This weekend was great. It highlights the beauty of college football. Ranked teams struggling, and some losing, to unranked or supposedly inferior opponents. Motivation, coaching, effort, schemes, matchups, etc. all matter. A quick recap.

The SEC officials essentially handed the game to Florida down the stretch. Two bogus automatic first down penalties on Arkansas on Florida's game-tying drive set them up with first and goal on the 7, which Florida, to its credit, executed on and scored. Then on Florida's game-winning drive, Arkansas' DB made a break on a pass and would have intercepted it but was CLEARLY interfered with by the Florida WR. No call. Florida should have been moved back 15 yards, making a field goal more difficult (albeit still make-able). Anyway, the point is: #1 Florida struggled at home against unranked and fairly unspectacular to this point Arkansas. Which begs the question: what is wrong with Florida's offense?

Boise State and Cincinnati were both unspectacular in their wins earlier in the week, on the road, against outmanned opponents. Boise's game was in doubt at the end, though they were fairly dominant for the majority of the game. South Florida made every mistake in the book against Cincy, and was still in it in the fourth quarter.

Coming in to the Red River Rivalry, Texas appeared to have all the steam, but got steamrolled for much of the first half. I turned to my wife at halftime with OU up only 6-3 and said: you can't dominate Texas for 4 quarters, you can't afford to only be up 3 after dominating for two. It turned out I was right as the second half played fairly evenly, with a slight enough edge to Texas that they won the game. Andre Ware, who predicted OU would lose 4 games this season, including BYU, Miami, and Texas, is looking like a prophet these days.

All the well-known pundits said Va Tech would clobber underdog but at home Ga Tech. One of those lesser known guys, me, told you Ga Tech would pull it out, though my score wasn't very close. I said 27-24, it was 28-23.

Notre Dame had a Golden chance to knock off USC (or at least force OT) but poor clock management (AGAIN!) led to their demise. I've seen way too much of this so far this season: they had first and goal with 38 seconds left and the game ended after a third down play. Pick up the pace. Pathetic.

Purdue handled Ohio State ALL game. A big flurry at the end allowed Ohio State a chance to tie it late, but they were down two scores for most of the game.

Wisconsin imploded after getting off to a 10-0 lead against Iowa. Either Iowa is lucky or good, i.e. teams have continually imploded against them, I can't tell yet if that's Iowa being good or Iowa's opponents all being bad. I guess I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this week until I make my picks for another Big Ten road game.

Tech laid a beating on Nebraska. The home fans were booing. I love it!
Mizzou got screwed by another poor replay official and took away any chance of a comeback by them, but it was a good game.
Colorado took advantage of a porous KU D and came away with the unexpected W. Poor coaching again in this one: KU down 4 with 4 minutes to go elects to go for it on 4th and goal instead of taking 3 points. Their final drive put them in field goal range with a few ticks left, if they had kicked the field goal, they would have had a much easier chance at winning that game. Oops.
San Diego State took advantage of a porous BYU secondary to keep the game close. BYU also went after a couple stupid 4th down plays electing to not kick a field goal to put themselves up 10 and electing to not punt from their own 40-yard line with a 7-point lead. Stupid.
UNLV played Utah well for about 10 of the 60 minutes and twice gave the home fans reason to believe they could pull off the upset, once late in the first half and once early in the fourth quarter. In the end, they finally did what they do best: roll over and play dead. Speaking of dead, anyway hear anything about Mike Sanford's future head coaching career? Another OC trying to be an HC and failing.

This is what college football is all about: David vs. Goliath. David got his fair share this weekend, and I'm hoping for more of the same this upcoming weekend. My POTENTIAL upsets: Hawaii over Boise State, Michigan State over Iowa, Clemson over Miami, BYU over TCU, Washington over Oregon, Virginia (don't laugh, they've won 3 in a row) over Georgia Tech (letdown game?), Michigan over Penn State, Air Force over Utah (don't laugh, Utah struggles with Air Force: 2008, 7-point win; 2007, 8-point loss at home; 2006 and 2005, 3-point wins), and Oklahoma over Kansas (???). Just potentials, I'm not saying all (or any) of them will happen, just saying, it should be another fun weekend. Apparently, ESPN read my blog from Saturday night, as they are heading to Provo for College Game Day for the showdown of TCU-BYU.

Recap

Never quite got around to the BYU-SDSU preview. It was slightly closer than I anticipated, though not too much. I was going for a 42-24 score, which wasn't too far off. BYU ran the ball as I anticipated, though the yards/carry left a little to be desired.
Max Hall survived another game without a pick. If you believe he averages 2/game, he's due for 6 against TCU next week. He sure has some cajones, as with 2 seconds left in the first half in a tie game he faked the "spike to set up the field goal" play and ran a QB boot for a TD. He had several nice rushes, some designed, some on scrambles, and some on plays he made up on the fly in the waning seconds of the first half. 300+ passing yards, 50 on the ground, 4 total TDs. Not a bad night's work.
Harvey Unga did well in the first quarter, but BYU seemed to go away from him for most of the rest of the game until they iced it in the fourth. SDSU held him to under 4 yards/carry, after averaging 6.5 the rest of the season. He is over halfway to 1,000 playing in only 5 games thus far with at least 6 left (BYU became bowl eligible with the win).
Dennis Pitta and Andrew George continue to be the best tight end tandem in the country. Tonight they combined for 10 catches, 147 yards, and 2 TDs.
The defense. Well, that's another story. Well, the pass defense is another story. The run defense was amazing. SDSU had 1.25 yards/carry.
The epitome of the BYU secondary occurred on 3rd and 27 on the BYU 36 yard-line. BYU's DB got beat deep for a TD. On 3rd and 27. How is it possible to get beat deep in that situation? I'll tell you how: because you play defensive back for Brigham Young University.
Lucky for them, Wyoming is really the only passing team left on the schedule, though Utah (and anybody else who has watched ANY film on the Cougars) will probably start to go pass heavy a bit.
So now the games have been played, the showdown is set up. BYU, likely to be ranked around 15 or 16 in the BCS standings, will face off against TCU, who should be around 9 or 10. It figures to be the only game involving two ranked teams next week. The better O: BYU. The better D: TCU. The better special teams: TCU. The better coaching: mostly even. Home field: BYU. Intangibles: TCU. This game will be decided by turnovers, penalties, and third and longs. If BYU turns it over, gets penalized, or gets into a lot of third and longs, forget about it. If they turn it over 0 or 1 times, minimize penalties (no personal fouls or holds that negate big plays), and can stay in third and short consistently, they CAN win. Should be a good one. It will be on VS (or VS HD which I just found out I had today!) at 5:30 Mountain, next Saturday. Giddy up.

A Look Ahead to the Weekend

Alabama over South Carolina, 20-10. Both teams sport great defenses, but I'm not sure the Cocks have enough offensive horses to keep up at Alabama. They have two great wideouts, but one of them is a freshman and makes a lot of mental errors. Next year, Mr. Gurley will be a great one for the Old Ball Coach.

Texas over Oklahoma, 35-24. Both teams appear improved defensively, but OU is not where they need to be offensively to beat a team like Texas. Plus, Mack Brown is a better big game coach than Bob Stoops. However, being the underdog in this game might be enough motivation for OU to pull this out: I don't think it will be though. The better team doesn't always win, but the better team that is better coached usually does. That's why Florida rarely loses.

Georgia Tech takes down Va Tech, 27-24. Caution, however: Georgia Tech's defense has been giving up yards and points in huge bunches. The O has found a little mojo since the Miami game, but none of those games featured a defense like Va Tech's. Va Tech has struggled away from home this year though, which I think will give Georgia Tech enough time to get the option rolling against the Hokies. Last year, Va Tech did a decent job against the option, at least in managing points. The Va Tech offense is what costs them this game.

USC over Notre Dame, 35-23. I keep hearing about how Notre Dame has a chance in this game. The experts are divided. It's at Notre Dame. They are improved. Notre Dame is winning close games this year, which they haven't done so well the past few seasons. However, this one won't be close. I think the Irish defense's inability to stop the run and the offense's inability to score TDs in the red zone will be what prevents them from having a chance in this game.

Wisconsin over Iowa, 28-16. Wisconsin is a pretty good football team. Not a great team, but they COULD beat any time outside the top 10 on any given Saturday, and probably even Cincinnati and Boise State from the top 10 based on what I've seen from those two.

Penn State over Minnesota, 31-14.
Nebraska over Texas Tech, 28-24. Tech wants this game in the 30's. Nebraska wants it in the teens. Nebraska's D is too good and O too bad for it to get into the 30's. Tech's O is too explosive and it's D too undisciplined to keep it in the teens. Into the 20's it goes. Advantage: sea of red.

OK State over Mizzou, 35-28. Both teams need help on D. Mizzou needs a confidence boost, and maybe they can pull off the shocker, but I wouldn't bet on it: unless the spread were 14...OK State needs this win to establish the credibility they lost when Houston lost by double digits to UTEP after beating the Cowboys at home by 10.

Kansas over Colorado, 42-24. Kansas' D looked bad all season until last week, when it looked horrific. Iowa State had guys wide open all over the field, especially on third down and in the fourth quarter. It's a good thing for their D that CU is atrociously bad on both sides of the ball. At some point, there needs to be some senior leadership (or coaching) that says enough is enough, let's go win. It won't come from Hawkins, it's pretty obvious his players don't buy into his stuff, but somebody needs to step up and lead the way! This is pathetic, it looks like intramural football at times. And we all know how Dan Hawkins feels about Division I and intramural football...

Utah over UNLV, 27-7. UNLV is in a similar situation as Colorado: somebody has to step up and stop the bleeding. The D is bad. I paused during a couple of plays last game to show my wife how GAPING the holes were for BYU running backs to go through, you could literally drive a car through them. And Utah has a better offensive line to block with! The only way Utah doesn't rush for 300 yards is if they get down to their 5th string RB (depth is a little shaky at that spot right now). The UNLV O has some playmakers and their return game is decent. The problem is: UNLV's playmakers line up opposite of Utah's. And Utah's are playing with confidence and reckless abandon. And it helps that they never get called for pass interference...

TCU over Colorado State, 31-13. CSU had a chance to establish itself as one of the competitors for the MWC crown last week, and led Utah 17-3 late in the 3rd quarter. A couple of picks and some bad special teams later, and they were on the short end of a 24-17 home loss. TCU has a better defense, a similar offense, and better special teams than Utah. Plus they get this game in warm weather at home.

Rutgers plays its first Big East home game since that debacle against Cincy in week one on Labor Day. They look like an improved team, but playing 2 I-AA teams, a Sun Belt bottom feeder, and Maryland can get anybody on a roll. Even Idaho could run through that undefeated...wait, can't make jokes like that this year with the 5-1 Vandals...Pitt 31, Rutgers 17.

MWC game I am most excited to see this weekend: Wyoming at Air Force. Both teams are hanging tough right now at 2-0 and 2-1 in conference play, respectively. Both teams play at Utah in their next game: Air Force next week and Wyoming in two weeks (following a bye). This game gives the winner confidence heading into that game, and keeps them in the running to remain in the top 3 come season's end. For Wyoming, it can keep them on top of the MWC Standings heading towards November: a place they haven't been in a long time. For Air Force, it keeps them around as a potential dark horse, should TCU falter, who beat them last week.
Air Force is 3-3 with all 3 by 7 points or less, 2 of them on the road and 1 of them to a top 10 team.
Wyoming stands at 4-2, 4-0 when not playing Big 12 teams. Last week they dominated New Mexico, after their previous 3 wins were all close games. Their two losses were blowouts, however, to Texas and Colorado. The Texas game was actually quite respectable before the Longhorns ran away with it in the second half. The Colorado game was never respectable. They have a solid defense, as usual, but the spread O is what is opening eyes in Laramie. It is actually moving the ball and putting points on the board.
However, with these two, it always seems to turn into a defensive slug fest. I give the slight edge to Air Force, playing at home on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon (which is one of the more beautiful venues I have been to, if you haven't checked it out, I recommend catching a game there). Falcons 24, Cowpokes 21.

Newsflash

Iowa is not a good team. I don't want to take anything away from a team that won at Penn State at night, in a year they were supposed to compete for the Big 10 and National Championships. But I'm going to anyway. Let's look at how well they have done and what they have it against:

67th in Total Offense
75th in Scoring Offense
46th in Passing Offense
80th in Rushing Offense

They have played two respectable defenses this year: Penn State and Arizona. Penn State is a top 10 defense. Of course, Penn State has only played ONE bowl team from last year so far this season (and that was Iowa and their apparently sorry offense). Arizona has played some decent competition, so we'll call them a legitimate top 20 defense.

31st in Total Defense
20th in Scoring Defense
21st in Passing Defense
62nd in Rushing Defense

Penn State and Arizona are the only teams they have played that rank in the top 40 in most offensive categories, and neither of them are in the top 20.

Their schedule consists of:
A I-AA team that they beat by 1 after blocking TWO field goals in the last 10 seconds. At home.
A perennial Big 12 North bottom feeder and in-state rival that they pummeled.
A middle-of-the-road Pac 10 team that hasn't finished higher than 5th in their conference since 1998. And I think that might have been the only time in the last 50 years that they won a conference championship...and they used to be in the WAC...
They were Penn State's first and only real challenge, and trailed going in to the fourth quarter until Penn State completely imploded, turning it over 3 times in its own territory in the final frame.
A 1-4 Sun Belt team that they had to hold off, winning by 3. At home again. The same Sun Belt team that lost to Louisiana-Monroe last night by more than they lost to Iowa by. They were more thoroughly dominated by the War Hawks than by the Hawkeyes!
A Michigan team coming off a 3-9 season, that has won (and lost) some close games, and its only large victories were against Directional Michigan teams. Even in that HOME game, Iowa had to cling to victory down the stretch.

Given that "impressive" resume, it's no wonder they head into Madison this week as an undefeated and 11th ranked team in the country as an underdog, to an unranked opponent that got handled easily by barely-ranked-higher-than-Iowa (and, therefore, supposedly barely-better-than-Iowa) Ohio State. Mark it down. Iowa loses by double digits and the love affair can end. Maybe they will completely drop off the radar the following week after a trip to East Lansing to take on Sparty, but I'm not making predictions about that yet...

The Mo Knows Rankings

Here is the first installment of the Mo Knows Rankings, strength of schedule included. Keep in mind there is no subjectivity in this, so while I may disagree with the results, I can't do anything about it! It is a measure of ACTUAL on-the-field performance coupled with strength of schedule. Penn State comes in at 40, because they haven't done anything to merit anything higher here. In the actual polls, the only thing they have done to merit their ranking in the teens is starting the season ranked in the top 10: they have played a bunch of home games and one good team and have one loss...

Anybody know how to enter a nice-looking table on here?

Rank Team SOS Rank
1 Florida 20
2 Texas 17
3 Alabama 13
4 Iowa 9
5 Va Tech 1
6 Oregon 6
7 Ohio State 2
8 TCU 37
9 Kansas 28
10 Notre Dame 16
11 Cincinnati 41
12 Boise State 54
13 Nebraska 14
14 Idaho 30
15 Georgia Tech 39
16 Utah 33
17 USC 32
18 LSU 3
19 West Virginia 44
20 South Florida 63
21 Wisconsin 10
22 BYU 34
23 OK State 29
24 South Carolina 45
25 Navy 12
26 Pittsburgh 40
27 Houston 38
28 Rutgers 60
29 Central Michigan 52
30 Oregon State 22
31 Miami 19
32 Auburn 35
33 Wake Forest 27
34 Tulsa 49
35 Northern Ill 24
36 Minnesota 15
37 Missouri 58
38 Texas Tech 25
39 California 21
40 Penn State 59
41 Oklahoma 11
42 Arkansas 26
43 Northwestern 57
44 La-Monroe 51
45 Troy 31
46 Michigan 7
47 UCLA 5
48 Wyoming 55
49 UCF 62
50 La-Lafayette 23
51 Marshall 50
52 Connecticut 8
53 Stanford 4
54 SMU 42
55 Ole Miss 36
56 Arizona 18
57 Arizona State 46
58 Temple 56
59 Boston College 43
60 Ohio 61
61 Texas A&M 48
62 Mid Tenn St 47
63 Baylor 53

BYU-UNLV preview

Scouting UNLV:
Defense: hasn't been great all season. Last week, it was just plain bad. Giving up over 550 yards with over 10 yards/carry. Gave up an additional 200 through the air against a rival team.
Offense: they have somewhat lacked an identity this year. They want to be a passing team, but spread passing teams complete a higher % of their passes. They want to be a running team, but they lack a big, tough back that can carry the load. Their mobile QB may or may not play much in this game, which makes them more of a dropback passing and power running team.

Scouting BYU:
Defense: who knows which Cougar D will show up. They have shown some versatility on D, but have also showed some vulnerability, particularly through the air. With the MWC's best receiver on the other side this week, it should be interesting to see if they can handle him, or if he has a career day against the Cougar secondary.
Offense: if they can't cut down on turnovers this could be a fairly close game. They have done a good job deep in their own end and in the red zone, but between the 30's is where they have had a tough time hanging on to the ball. The Cougars should line up in the I-formation and run behind the big O-Line and tough-as-nails FB Manase Tonga. Once the D stacks against the run, utilize the play-action pass. In short, BYU can blow this game open by playing Big Ten style.

Outcome: this is UNLV's bowl game, because if they can't find a way to win this game, they are not going to a bowl game. Their coach is on the hot seat. Injuries are piling up. Will this pull them together for an outstanding team effort today, or will this pull them apart and lead to another abysmal performance? I think they will play well until something goes wrong (a turnover or a BYU TD), and then it all falls apart. If they can play a good first quarter, they will likely be able compete for all 4 quarters. I think if BYU gets the ball first, they march down the field, and amen to UNLV's chances of pulling off the upset. Or if UNLV gets it first and goes three and out or turns it over, they are done as well. They are in a fragile state right now.
BYU has played 4 consecutive bowl games in this stadium, in addition to playing UNLV every other year for the past decade. BYU is 7-0 against UNLV at Sam Boyd, 2-2 in bowl games. BYU has a huge following in Vegas, as well as fans that travel fairly well done there for these games. This is a de facto home game for them. BYU's defense is starting to get its mojo back. The offense has been unstoppable, averaging under 3 punts/game. The only who has looked capable of stopping them is themselves. They have turned it over more than they have punted! The name of the game today (and next week): ball security. Figure it out before TCU or your conference title hopes are done.
BYU 45, UNLV 13.

Weekend Predictions

Arkansas reigns supreme at home over undefeated Auburn, 38-31. Auburn's second road test (they did well enough to win in the last one against a less talented opponent), Arkansas coming off a big neutral site win against A&M, I gotta go with the more explosive of the offenses in a high-scoring affair. Yes, this is still an SEC game...

Upset alert: Va Tech against BC. I still think Va Tech gets it done at home, but closer than the experts think...27-21. BC might be rolling for real, but Va Tech has been finding ways to win. This might be a preview of the ACC title game.

Georgia over Tennessee, 31-20. I think Georgia is excited to finally get a sub-par defense again. The O looked abysmal last week against LSU. Tennessee may be well-coached (they might not be as well, tough to tell at this point), but they certainly aren't very good.

Texas A&M over Oklahoma State, 35-17. OK State's first road game. A lot of distractions this week. A&M's offense is pretty good. The Cowboys defense is pretty bad. Who will fill in for Dez Bryant this week at crunch time?

Kansas over Iowa State, 41-24. Two fairly high-powered offenses. Two highly suspect defenses. Should be fun, unless you're a Cyclone fan.

UCLA over Oregon, 24-20. Oregon's first road game since Boise State. UCLA is a tougher place to play (although not a tougher team to play). UCLA's D is pretty stout and the O is sufficient, particularly with the return of starting QB Kevin Prince.

Ole Miss over Alabama, 28-17. Ole Miss is tougher than Kentucky, whom the Crimson Tide played closer on the road than they should have. Ole Miss has had some time to regroup (or for self-doubt to grow, in which case they get blown out of the water) after only scoring 10 against South Carolina. Welcome to the Grove, one of the prettier venues in college football, at least from what I've seen of it on video games...

Ohio State ends Wisconsin's nice start, 34-20. Not confident in Wisconsin's ability to play 4 solid quarters against anybody, particularly in Columbus against one of the better teams in the country. I know Ohio State takes a lot of crap for not being great, but, with that said, they are still one of the best 15 teams in the country year in and year out.

Oklahoma blows Baylor out of the water, 45-10. OU is not very well coached. They got outcoached by BYU AND Miami so far. They are consistently one of the most talented teams in the country, but coaching is why they can't win a BCS game to save their lives. Recruiting is just one aspect of coaching, Mr. Stoops.

Utah edges Colorado State in the first snow game in the MWC this season, 27-21. CSU is improved and will give Utah a run for sure. I think Utah better not turn the ball over more than once or else they will lose this game. We'll see how deep they really are at RB.

TCU shuts down the option when it counts and beats Air Force, 31-21. Running/option team against one of the best teams against the run. Interesting matchup. I expect a lot of 3 and outs for Air Force this game, but if they can sustain a few drives, tire TCU out, they might have a chance late. They are a tough out every time.

Florida State surprises Georgia Tech, 27-21. Florida State is good against the run, horrid against the pass. Good thing G-Tech can't pass.

LSU beats Florida (with or without Tebow), 31-24. I don't think LSU will enjoy being the underdog in a night game at home. I'm not sold on LSU as the number 1 team in the country (which they likely will be if they win this), but they are good enough, motivated enough, and at home enough to win this game.

Michigan upends Iowa, 35-17. Defense wins championships. Lack of offense loses games though. Sorry, Hawkeyes. They have struggled to put up points this season, and they have had to come up with two CLOSE games against inferior opponents at home to go undefeated up through this point. I think the run ends here: Michigan will improve on last week's noble effort against Sparty.

Washington needs to beat Arizona, if wishing makes it so, call it so. I officially wish Washington to beat Arizona 27-17. Arizona has played well, even on the road against Iowa and Oregon State, splitting those two games. Washington DESPERATELY needs a win. They are at home. It is a night game. There is nothing else going on in Seattle worth talking about, so Mush Huskies.

Yeah, I have a lot of upsets happening, but I think this is the weekend of the upset. Let's give the top 25 another shake-up, it's been a while.

The BYU-Utah saga continues

I made the mistake of looking at the readers' comment section on a BYU/Utah article posted online from a newspaper originating in the state of Utah earlier this week. It was loaded with asinine bashing, unsubstantiated name-calling, and complete idiocy/ignorance/lunacy. I suddenly remembered why I love NOT living in Utah and having a bunch of morons put each other down because of the teams they cheer for, when most of the derogatory comments had absolutely nothing to do with the actual teams on the field. In the real world, BYU and Utah fans get along great. We respect each other's successes and manage to be friends. Some of us even watch or attend games with each other. Here's a few actual facts to help ease the tension.

In the 4 completed seasons under the current head coaches, BYU posted an overall record of 38-13. Utah went 37-14. Pretty even.
BYU's offense scored 1,124 points compared to Utah's 954. BYU had a better offense 3 of the 4 seasons.
Utah's defense gave up 617 points compared to BYU's 675. Utah had a better defense 3 of the 4 seasons.
BYU's average ranking at the end of the season is 18, with one season where they were unranked and not receiving votes. Utah's average ranking at the end of the season is 24, likewise with one "N/A" season. BYU was in the top 25 for 26 weeks, including being ranked in 3 of those 4 seasons. Utah spent 15 weeks in the top 25, all encompassed in the 2008 season.
BYU has won 2 conference championships. Utah has won 1.
They have both spent the same number of weeks in the top 10, however, Utah finished a season there, while BYU has not.
Utah has been to one BCS game and has one BCS win. BYU has zero appearances.
Utah is 7-3 against BCS teams, 3 of them ranked at the time. BYU is 5-7, with only 1 of them ranked.
Utah has 11 losses against non-BCS teams, only 1 occurring in non-conference play. BYU has fared better with only 6 total, only 1 in non-conference play.
Utah is 4-0 in bowl games, 2-0 against BCS conference teams. BYU is 2-2, all 4 of which were BCS conference opponents.
BYU's average finish in the MWC is 1.75. Utah's is 2.75. BYU's lowest finish is third. Utah's lowest was tied for 4th. They tied for 3rd twice before winning it outright last season.
In the 4 head-to-head matchups, the record is 2-2. Utah won the first in OT on the road. BYU won the second in extra time (on the last play of the game) on the road. BYU led most of the third game until falling behind late and then leading a game-winning drive with less than a minute to go. The fourth game was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter until BYU QB Max Hall put on a legendary show, throwing 4 interceptions in the final frame on his way to a double hat trick of turnovers (5 INTs and 1 fumble). All 4 of the games have been back and forth, regardless of which university had the better season/team.

The programs are pretty even when compared objectively head-to-head. Utah has the higher highs but also having the lower lows. BYU is pretty even-keel. I certainly don't see anything in the stats to indicate that one team was so far superior to the other or any team resembling a little brother of any kind. Utah State is the only little brother I see in the state of Utah...
The advantages Utah has are defense, victories over BCS conference teams, and a BCS win. Utah's team motto appears to be: go big or go home. Which type of year will this be? I've already said I think it's a "go home" type of season.
The advantages BYU has are offense, national ranking, and conference play. BYU must believe: consistency reigns supreme. Is there enough consistency left in this 2009 Jekyll and Hyde team to compete for another conference championship? I've already said I think they can compete for it, but, at this point, I think TCU wins it this year by beating BYU in Provo in 2 weeks.

Big East vs. MWC

There has been a lot of discussion about the Big East not belonging in the BCS and the Mountain West belonging, so I thought I'd check some facts on the two. These are only since 2005, when the MWC expanded to 9 teams and the Big East added teams to give it the current 8 teams.

Record in BCS games:
MWC 1-0
Big East 3-1

Top 25 teams at season's end:
MWC: 7
Big East: 8

Top 10 finishes:
MWC: 3
Big East: 4

Looking at each year individually, in only one of the four years did the MWC have a stronger top 25 finish than the Big East: 2008. 3 MWC teams were ranked at season's end, where only 1 from the Big East was. What the MWC has done without having easy access to the BCS and it's $$ is incredible. However, having ONE better season than the Big East does not mean that the MWC belongs and the Big East doesn't. One thing that the Big East does have more of than the MWC: balance. Since 2005, the MWC has only had 3 teams ranked at season's end (these are the only 3 that have been ranked at any time as well, even in-season): TCU and BYU both finished ranked 3 times, with Utah being ranked only 1 time. The Big East has had 4 different teams ranked at the end of the season (with 2 more teams that have been ranked at some point during the season, South Florida and Pitt): West Virginia 3 different times, Cincinnati and Louisville 2 times, and Rutgers one time. 6 different teams that have been ranked vs. 3. Only two Big East teams have never been ranked at any time over the past 4 years, compared to six MWC schools.

I agree the Big East does not deserve an auto-bid just because they are the Big East, but why does the MWC just because they have better teams AT THE TOP. RIGHT NOW. Even then, the Big Three has a relatively short track record. Utah was ranked earlier this year, only the second time in their ENTIRE history they have been ranked at some point in two consecutive seasons. TCU and BYU have done better with the consistency part, but neither has cracked the top 5 in that span.

That 6th auto-bid should go to the 6th highest ranked conference champ, not automatically to ANY conference's champion. Or better yet, no auto-bids at all. EVERY conference has to earn it EVERY year.

Are They Who We Thought They Were?

These guys are legit, they will have 12 wins before they play a bowl game:
Florida. Urban gets more out of his guys than any coach in America. And now, at Florida, he has some of the best guys. Good combo for him, bad for pretty much everybody else in America. I think they will lose a game this year, but that shouldn't exclude them from the National Championship picture. Defense. Offense. Speed. Coaching. Effort. Enthusiasm. Home field advantage. Road Warriors. Defending champs.
Texas. Colt McCoy is a winner. Texas looks good. If they can beat Oklahoma on the 17th, I think they can go undefeated and play in the National Championship game. If they lose, even a single game, I think their SOS prevents them from getting in the title game, even playing in the Big 12 South. Non-conference: Sun Belt, two C-USA, and an MWC bottom-feeder. In a year where the Big 12 South is looking more-than-human, they can't overcome any of the other top 10 teams that put together 1-loss campaigns.
Boise State. Maybe they wouldn't survive USC's schedule, or Florida's, or Texas', or even BYU's. But then again, maybe they would. They have pounded every team on their schedule so far. Injuries have taken their toll on the team, and they have just plugged in backup's that have done just fine, so depth isn't a huge issue. They are talented. They have size. They have speed. They hit hard on D. Their offense is balanced AND explosive. They are sound in the kicking and return games. What more do you want? I'm also not sure they'll go undefeated, very few teams ever do, but they are a great team.


These are on my watch list, I think they should/will get 10-11 wins during the season, but I'm not sold that they can stay in the top 10 for the rest of the year:
Alabama: nice win against Va Tech. Blew out Arkansas. They haven't played a true road game against a good opponent yet. Even the Va Tech win may not have been all that impressive, only time will tell how good of a team they beat. I'm guessing they beat a 2 or 3-loss ACC champion. Big game at Ole Miss this weekend. I'm interested to see how Ole Miss will perform without all the hype surrounding them: good start with a big win on the road at Vandy last week.
Virginia Tech: not too much beef left on the schedule. They have certainly looked beatable but what game left on the schedule will they lose: BC, @ Georgia Tech? Maybe one of them, but certainly not both. There is always the look ahead game, but there isn't anything to look ahead to after the next two games. If Georgia Tech doesn't drop them, I think Va Tech could be in position to get embarrassed in the National Championship game after the war of attrition in the top 4: only two of those 4 can go undefeated, and it's likely only one of them will.
LSU: they have struggled in all of their road games. But you can't discount that they held on to win all of them. They only have 2 more of those this season anyway: but both of them are against teams that are probably better than Washington, Mississippi State, and Georgia: Alabama and Ole Miss. I think of these teams, LSU is probably the least likely to get to 10.
USC: the offense hasn't looked great since the first game of the season. It appears they did OK against Cal (missed that game), but I'm waiting to see them move the ball consistently on the road. The D has kept them in games, but can they do it against some of the better offenses in the Pac 10 (Oregon and, well, Oregon. Maybe Stanford???)?
Ohio State: tough to tell with them as they have only played one good team. And lost. At home. Penn State and Iowa are the only potential challenges left on their schedule, but I don't really think much of either of those team to be honest. The Big Ten needs to step up in their scheduling all around. This "4 patsies before conference play" thing is getting a little tired, particularly for a conference that needs some marquee non-conference wins to get back the respect they have lost for sucking in bowl games in recent years.
TCU: they have one of the best defenses in the country. They have proven they can win on the road in hostile environments. The offense has been less than spectacular but they certainly have the speed to make up for it. They are excellent on special teams. However, their big win was a very tight game at Clemson, which may not actually mean very much by season's end. With a win at Air Force this weekend (which isn't spectacular) and at BYU in 3 weeks, I'll definitely buy into them as a legitimate top 10 team. Clemson, Air Force, and BYU would probably be as good a collection of road wins as most teams in the country will have.


In the top 25, but I don't buy into them as top 10 teams (probably will have 10 wins after the bowls are played...):
Penn State: the schedule could be easier, but I'm not sure how. They play 4 crap non-conference games and don't have to play one of the better Big Ten teams, Wisconsin, this year in conference play. They get Ohio State at home, and they had Iowa at home. Plus they have 8 home games on the schedule and Michigan is the only difficult one of the 4 road games. The schedule cried for 12-0 before the 4th quarter collapse against Iowa. I still think they get 9, maybe 10 wins, but a lot of teams in the country could have with this schedule.
Auburn: how do you judge a team that has played only 1 really lousy team, with 1 mediocre team, and 3 pretty decent teams? I can't judge them just yet. I believe that they will falter down the stretch with four of their final 5 games: @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Georgia, Alabama. I can't buy into them until at least Halloween, after the first two games in that stretch. Maybe after playing @ Arkansas this weekend they'll just fall out of the discussion anyway...
BYU: this is kind of a "depends on what it means" type of situation. I think they are primed to go 10-2, which doesn't prove that they aren't a great team, but it doesn't show that they are a great team either. The win against Oklahoma is looking less impressive today than it was last week, but if OU goes 9-3 and manages to beat Kansas and OK State, it will look pretty good again (Texas is the better team right now, but OU COULD still beat them next weekend). They have got to stop turning the ball over. Max Hall continues to throw picks like a true freshman and the only wide receiver who hasn't fumbled yet this year pulled a hammy last week and is out a month.


These teams will definitely prove they do not belong in not too long (i.e. single-digit wins):
Oregon: ever since the removal of that cancerous tumor, LeGarrette Blount, this has looked like a good, and certainly improving week-to-week, team. They beat Purdue and Utah in close affairs and started the demise of Cal. They also blew out Washington State. However, those four were all at home, and none of those 4 has looked very special this season (or Cal since then...).
Cincy: big win at Oregon State, but that's about the only impressive thing I've seen from them. They still have a couple of decently difficult road games and I'm not sure they are THAT MUCH better than the rest of the Big East that they run the conference undefeated.
Miami: I'm still concerned about the D at the U. The three best teams left on the schedule are on the road: Wake Forest, North Carolina, and South Florida.
Iowa: not taking anything away from winning at Penn State, but Iowa hasn't played a difficult schedule and they haven't dominated ANY opponent from start to finish, even the 35-3 win at Iowa State was 7-3 late in the 2nd quarter. I think the next three games will prove Iowa's mettle: if they go 3-0 I will eat crow. When they go 1-2 and drop from the top 25 you can all praise my accuracy. At 2-1, we'll call it even...
Oklahoma State: gotta love preseason hype, which is the only reason the Cowboys are still in the discussion. They beat Georgia after the refs made a bad call. They lost to Houston. Then beat Rice and Grambling but not after giving up 30 points to the highly outmanned opponents. No D, no clutch play, and no road games. They'll lose 2 or 3 of the next 4 and we can stop talking about the Cowboys.
Kansas: they've got a rough schedule, good thing they went EASY in the non-conference scheduling. Maybe they can get a win at home against Oklahoma. Maybe. Maybe they can sneak a win from the Pirate in Lubbock on Halloween. Maybe. Maybe they lose both. Either way, 9-3 is probably as good as they can do, and 8-4 is probably most likely at this point.
Oklahoma: Andre Ware predicted 4 losses for OU this season, including BYU and Miami. It appears likely that they lose to Texas. They travel to Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Tech. They play Oklahoma State as well. The aura of invincibility surrounding OU is all but gone. Losing to BYU can do that to you!
Ole Miss: I thought maybe the schedule would help them, with the toughest teams at home and the less tough on the road. They have shown they can't win the less tough ones on the road. Can they win the tough ones at home? Not likely. They host Alabama and LSU but must travel to Auburn. They'll drop AT LEAST one of those, and maybe even all 3.
Nebraska: they've played one ranked team and have one loss. They have 3 more ranked teams, two on the road, left. I'm thinking they lose at least 3.
Georgia Tech: 4 more road games. Have to play Virginia Tech and Georgia still.
South Florida: they have exactly two quality wins in the history of their program, and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. 2 ranked teams left, both at home (at least 1 will be a loss) and 3 conference road games (at least 1 will be a loss). Another 9-win season for the Bulls? Mo thinks so.
Mizzou: that beatdown they laid on Illinois sure was fun. Too bad the Illini bite. Needing a fourth quarter comeback against Bowling Green? Nearly blowing a lead on the road at Nevada? The next 3 are going to be brutal (and get progressively harder). Plus they end the season with Kansas. They have 3 losses ahead on the schedule, at least.
South Carolina: 3 road games, 1 Florida game, and in-state rival Clemson left? Not a good outlook for South Carolina. They have a great D, which is supposed to win championships, problem is teams that have offenses in the SEC also have great Ds.
Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Stanford, Utah, Michigan, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Arizona, West Virginia will probably all win between 7-9 games. Most likely to make a run and get to 10: Wisconsin, Houston (if they win their division they will get a 13th game), Boston College, Notre Dame, and Pitt (I don't think any of them will actually make it there, but they have the best chance). Most likely to only get 6: Stanford and Arizona.

Non-BCS tracker

Moral victories (some of these are going to be non-BCS vs. non-BCS games as their games against BCS teams are becoming limited as conference play starts):
Ball State having a lead in the final minute before losing the lead and dropping to 0-5.
Arkansas State giving Iowa more than it wanted.
Miami (OH) holding high-powered Cincinnati to 23 first half points.
Air Force taking Navy to OT on a last second field goal (before missing a field goal in OT and losing).
New Mexico making Tech earn their 20-point victory: it was 14-7 at halftime.
CSU having a chance to tie the game late on the road against Idaho before missing a two-point conversion.
Kent State getting a safety against Baylor.

Actual Victories:
Louisiana Tech destroying Hawaii, 27-6.
UAB saving its season (while ending Southern Mississippi's QB's) by beating the Golden Eagles at home.
BYU overcoming 3 turnovers (this needs to get resolved in the next two warmup games before hosting TCU on the 24th) to beat Utah State, 35-17. The outcome was never in question, but the 3 turnovers made it dicier than it should have been.
Tulane netting its first victory against a I-A team, by winning on the road at Army.
ECU getting back above .500 with a win at Marshall.
Central Michigan winning at reigning MAC champion Buffalo.
Navy beating Air Force in the slop in OT.
Wyoming improving to 3-2 in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year/decade, winning on the road against Florida Atlantic, who is not looking like they will achieve bowl eligibility after all.
Nevada dropping 63 on in-state rival UNLV.
San Diego State getting a much-needed victory over a WAC bottom feeder. That puts them at 1-1 against WAC bottom-feeders this year.
Boise State avoided an embarrassment against I-AA UC Davis.
TCU overcame a slow start to beat SMU by 25.
UTEP running all over Houston, dropping 58 on the formerly ranked Cougars.

You Can't Do Thats:
UNLV giving up 63 to in-state rival Nevada. Oops.
Houston giving up 58 to UTEP, effectively ending their BCS hopes and dreams.
SMU giving up 39 points to TCU's offense.
Rice starting 0-5 after losing by 17 at home to Tulsa.
Florida Atlantic losing at home to Wyoming.
Ball State starting 0-5 after complaining about how unfair the BCS system was.

BYU-Utah State Preview

Utah State O: very capable of moving the ball, especially on the ground, and scoring points. Big, fast bruiser at tailback: he outran the Utah secondary for a 97-yard TD the first game of the season. That was a few plays after he knocked a few of them on their backs. They have a mobile QB who keeps plays alive with his feet and is great in the open field. Last year he got away from pressure and ran the ball. This year he gets away from pressure and keeps his eyes downfield so he can still throw it. He isn't great on the deep ball, but he is servicable. These two are the main focus of the offense. Contain them, contain Utah State.

BYU D: usually pretty stout against the run. Florida State hurt them, but they did it with very different personnel than what Utah State (or any team left on BYU's schedule) brings to the table: short, shifty backs behind a huge O-line, and a very strong QB who can throw it 60 or run over LBs. OU couldn't run on them, Tulane couldn't run on them, CSU couldn't run on them. The pass defense hasn't looked great the past two games, but FSU and CSU have better passing games than Utah State. Essentially, BYU will have to try to make Utah State one-dimensional. If they stop the run, they win this game. Big.

BYU O: nobody has really stopped BYU's offense this year. They have stopped themselves with turnovers, missed field goals, and penalties, but no one has really stopped them. They even racked up nearly 400 yards against OU's defense and scored two more TDs against them than all of OU's other opponents combined, and that was with 3 turnovers. The running game is back and provides more balance now that Harvey Unga's hamstring has healed. Brian Kariya did a nice job filling in, but there are few shifty power backs like Unga out there: last game he ran a draw on 3rd and 16, avoided two defenders in the first 6 yards and dragged a third one for 10 yards and got the first down. The passing game isn't real sharp for BYU standards, with 8 INTs through 4 games. Max Hall is averaging just a hair under 300 yards, having gone through the toughest 4-game stretch, as far as defenses are concerned, on the schedule. So the picks are disconcerting, but they are certainly getting yards in bunches.

Utah State D: they haven't really stopped anybody. They made Utah QB Terrence Cain look like an All-American QB (which he has definitely proven not to be since then). Texas A&M was unstoppable against them. Even SUU put up 5 scores on them at home. Road game, better O, it doesn't look good for their D this game. They will need to force some turnovers and get pressure on Max. The D-line is VERY undersized. BYU's TEs outweigh the D-line, and BYU's fullbacks weigh about the same. However, the undersized part is partly by design: Gary Andersen knew he didn't have great defensive players, so he is playing the fastest guy at every position so at least there is speed. Speed won't help in a Double-TE, I-formation, run down your throat situation though. I expect to see a lot of that, particularly early on, to wear down the Aggie defense.

On paper, this is one of those games that should be a blowout. It is a rivalry game though and anything can happen. I look for Utah State to come out excited and enthused, and to play with much more emotion than the BYU-bots do. With their talent level, unfortunately, playing with emotion will probably cause some early errors (like with CSU). By the time they get settled, they might be down 2 or 3 scores (unless Max Hall starts the game off with an INT or two). I think in the end, BYU will cover the spread. BYU 45, Utah State 20.

BYU, Utah offensive analysis

Utah:

What has worked: the running game has been difficult for opponents to stop. Negative yardage plays have been kept to a minimum, which is rare for any team that runs the spread option attack. The short passing game (wide receiver screens and short passing routes) has netted a lot of yards after the catch. The O-line has done a great job opening up lanes for the RBs and protecting the QB in passing situations.

What the Asiata injury means: they lack a tough inside runner. He was dynamic in that he could bruise you up the middle AND beat you to the corner. Eddie Wide is more of an outside runner. I'm sure the wideout (Shaky Something-or-other) is probably going to be the same way. Utah will not abandon the zone read, but they will certainly do more sweeps, fly sweeps, wildcat, etc. Eddie Wide did pretty well in the wildcat last week in Asiata's absence, though he didn't put any DBs and LBs on their back like Asiata did.

What wasn't working anyway: the 5-step drop passing game. Usually it involves deeper routes from the WRs, reading the defense from the WRs and QB, and a cannon from the QB. The WRs are great in space, but they aren't great route-runners. They have the speed to get open deep, particularly against MWC secondaries, but their hands have been a little suspect. The biggest problem I see is with the decision-making and arm of the QB. After watching several games and parts of others, it seems clear that he isn't proficient on the deep ball: not that he can't complete it, but he lacks the familiarity with his receivers to put it on the money every time. I have only seen him complete 4 or 5 passes all season that were in the air more than 10 yards down the field.

How I would defend them: well, they got easier to defend with the injury to Asiata. What makes Utah so tough to defend is all of the things they can do. They could run up the middle, they could run outside, they could wildcat you, they could throw screens, they could hit short routes, they could roll the QB and give him run/throw options. Typically with a defense, you want to eliminate at least one of the things they can do: with Asiata out, one of their options is all but eliminated without the D having to take it away. They will still run up the middle some, but Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin aren't going to be able to handle the beating that comes with that as well. K, so how I defend them...
Put your DBs within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage to take away the short passing game. Have them shade the inside, as Utah's big plays have been almost exclusively on slant routes where the wideout jukes the safety and goes for 50 yards. Funnel everything outside: make Terrence Cain throw outs, corners, and fades. I would also bring in an extra DB to play outside linebacker, kind of a nickel package/4-2-5 defense. Utah is going to be more of a finesse team now, so you need the speed to counter that.
I would also stack the box: get 8 guys in it. The 8 in the box need to play outside-in, as in, DEs and LBs need to keep all running plays inside. The DBs play inside-out and force the WRs to stay outside. I would also play zone instead of man (most people assume man D is the way to go against the spread, but I say the opposite is true), as Utah's passing game is focused on guys catching the ball in motion: make that a dangerous proposition by having players waiting. I would have the MLB spy the QB and key on the play-action pass, but I wouldn't bring a lot of pressure, maybe 4 or 5, possibly 6 on occasion just to mix it up. I would probably be vulnerable to the big play, particularly if running plays get outside, but I'd take my chances.
On the other hand, Utah's O always thrives on big plays, so maybe you just rush 4, drop 7 in coverage and keep everything in front of you. They haven't been able to sustain LONG drives.
The other key to defending Utah is to not turn the ball over on offense and be sound in the kicking game: they block punts, have a good return unit, etc. You have to be good in all facets to beat Utah. Not great (not this season for sure), but good/sound/solid. Utah does a great job of hanging around until you screw up.

Problem stopping Utah: their O-line is just plain good. They are big, strong, agile, block well, etc. They push you around. Every play! Also, even if you know what's coming, it doesn't mean you are going to be able to stop it. Even if you stop it or have it perfectly defended, you miss one tackle and they can take it to the house on you in a hurry.

BYU:

What has worked: running from under center. The play-action pass. Screens. The QB draw (when not overused). O'Neill Chambers catching the ball. The TEs 10-15 yards down the field. Depth at RB. Spreading the ball around. The deep ball the first time or two in a game.

What hasn't worked: running from the shotgun. Short inside routes, particularly slants by outside receivers or quick outs/option routes by inside receivers. O'Neill Chambers carrying the ball after the catch. Turnovers: INTs as frequently as fumbles, which is quite frequently. The reverse, fake reverse, and reverse pass (nice wrinkle but it won't work again: try the double reverse or double-fake: fake handoff, fake reverse, play-action fade to Jacobsen, post to Pitta, or corner route to Name-Your-Slow-BYU-WR-With-Good-Hands). The deep ball the third and fourth time a game.

How I would defend: bump 'n' run defense, move the corners up to the line. BYU's O revolves around precise routes: so knock them off their routes.
Don't worry about the deep middle: when BYU attacks deep, it's usually outside. When they attack the middle, it's usually no further than 15-20 yards downfield.
Bring pressure: the O-Line does a pretty good job handling blitzes, but Max Hall doesn't. Even if the pressure doesn't quite get there, if Max knows it's coming, he's likely to make a poor decision: like tucking and running or throwing pick 6's.

Problem stopping BYU: they have no problem taking what you give them. You gear up to stop their passing game and they will run it all the way down the field. Take away the run game and they'll throw it from end zone to end zone. Blitz all the time, and they'll mix in draws and screens. There is a great improvement in play-calling this year, although the execution has declined a bit from what BYU is used to. You can't stop everything and whatever you try to stop, they'll just do the opposite.

Quick prediction

I predict that nobody will care about tonight's ESPN game that features Colorado traveling to West Virginia to try to recreate the total offensive disaster that was last year's meeting. This year, I think the exact opposite will happen as horrid tackling, porous secondaries, and an inability to control the line of scrimmage has plagued both of these defenses this year. I'm not even sure I will watch any of this game, and I will certainly watch less of it than the 30 minutes of Hawaii-Louisiana Tech I watched last night. 45-31 for West Virginia.