Great final score. BYU played physical and bested a mid-level team, playing on the road, at altitude. However, not one to take it easy on the 2-2 Cougars who play a darn good football team in 7 days, there are some serious concerns. First, 5 turnovers. Second, 9 penalties for 80 yards. Third, 26 minutes of possession. Fourth, only forcing 1 turnover.
It just shows the disparity in talent level when you can be -4 in turnovers, -7.5 in time of possession, and commit a lot of high yardage penalties and still win by 27. The BYU defense has been amazing on all but about 6 plays the entire season. However, as phenomenal as it has been, it has only forced 3 turnovers the entire season. That was the difference in losses against UVa and Utah. BYU had opportunities to intercept passes in crucial situations and didn't get it done. Utah scored after a missed BYU pick. Middle Tennessee did the same tonight. Against Virginia, BYU twice had chances for INTs that would have given a struggling offense a chance to start in field goal range. Being -4 in turnovers is the offense's fault, but only forcing 3 turnovers in 4 games is the difference between 4-0 and 2-2. I understand the defense can't do everything but right now there are 3 things it isn't doing right now and that is one. The other two are kind of combined: they aren't taking away the short passes and yet they still give up big plays over the top. I have not figured out the strategy for BYU's pass defense yet. Huge cushions, which result in a lot of 3rd and medium conversions, but still 6 pass plays have gone for big yardage against them. And typically in critical situations...
Offensively, it was nice to see Taysom efficient with the football on the ground and through the air. I think the zone defense helped a lot. However, Utah State is going to do what the Utes did and BYU is going to have to respond a little better than they did last week. They will load the box. They will play tight, physical, man defense on the outside. They will blitz from the edge to keep Taysom's legs contained. They will force BYU to be one-dimensional and make Taysom beat them with his arm. They will accept him throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs and lose. They will not accept him rushing for 100 yards or 15 yards/carry. That will not happen. If he does that, it's because they had a bad day tackling.
There are a couple of firsts for Taysom. He completed over 50% of his passes, which had not happened this season prior to the game against the Blue Raiders. He averaged more than 6 yards/attempt (actually 9.3 tonight after a previous season high of 5.4). He ran and threw for over 150 each tonight. I think the play-calling tonight was designed to get Hill comfortable with the short to intermediate passing game. BYU will need that next week against a blitzing, aggressive, multi-faceted Utah State defense.
The receivers look more comfortable catching the ball as well. After a rough patch early on, it seems they also figured out what to do after they catch the ball (most of them weren't used to catching the ball AND having space to run afterwards). There are plenty of opportunities for that next week against a lot of man coverage!
Anyway, great win. BYU did what it was supposed to do: beat up and pound an inferior opponent. They more than tripled them on the scoreboard, they more than doubled them in yards, and they played more than double the number of third/fourth stringers. Next week, it's on. The winner gets to be little brother for the next year. The loser has to be the baby brother...Utes get to hold onto big brother for a while since they don't play Utah State until 2015 and BYU until 2016. This year they did what big brothers are supposed to do: they just play their game and wait for little bro to screw up and capitalize. Of course, both little brothers likely will have dates for the prom, while Utah might be sitting at home cashing a big fat check, watching them play in late December while they cash a much smaller check...
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Friday, September 27, 2013
MTSU-BYU First Half Reaction
I said a couple of times in this space that MTSU would give BYU a rougher first half than most fans would expect. BYU came out and wanted to be the aggressor. They definitely won the physicality battle, but in doing so were totally careless with the football and had several penalties.
The WRs don't seem to know what to do after they catch the ball. They look like a deer in the headlights. I guess that's because they aren't used to having the ball thrown so consistently catchable, then catching it, and having space to run. I hope they figure it out. Falslev looks like the only guy who knows what YAC is...
It's time to find out how deep the RBs are. I also think we'll have an opportunity to see some 3rd stringers on the defense (except in the secondary b/c Bronco NEVER plays backup DBs). I'll stand by my pre-game prediction of 44-13. That means second half needs to be BYU 21, MTSU 3. I could see that happening...
The WRs don't seem to know what to do after they catch the ball. They look like a deer in the headlights. I guess that's because they aren't used to having the ball thrown so consistently catchable, then catching it, and having space to run. I hope they figure it out. Falslev looks like the only guy who knows what YAC is...
It's time to find out how deep the RBs are. I also think we'll have an opportunity to see some 3rd stringers on the defense (except in the secondary b/c Bronco NEVER plays backup DBs). I'll stand by my pre-game prediction of 44-13. That means second half needs to be BYU 21, MTSU 3. I could see that happening...
MTSU-BYU Prediction (Sorry, it's late)
I literally worked all week up to, and including the first drive of the game tonight. My model has BYU by 10. I think we either show up and dominate or play sluggish and have to eke one out. I could see a little hangover from the Utah game. But if BYU comes out wanting to show some fools what's up, they should roll...this is actually up from the preseason poll, which had BYU by 8. Go figure BYU starts 1-2 and MTSU starts 3-1 and the prediction becomes a bigger blowout...
BYU 44, MTSU 13
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they show up. Plus, a little more zone D tonight should help out the Cougars weak sauce receiving corps...even without Hoffman. Seriously though, take Hoffman off BYU and the Cougars have the worst receivers of any team that feels that they belong in the upper third of college football...Utah proves that every year with tight man coverage that no one can break.
BYU 44, MTSU 13
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they show up. Plus, a little more zone D tonight should help out the Cougars weak sauce receiving corps...even without Hoffman. Seriously though, take Hoffman off BYU and the Cougars have the worst receivers of any team that feels that they belong in the upper third of college football...Utah proves that every year with tight man coverage that no one can break.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Utah-BYU Week Post #4, Reaction/Rant
I pretty well had the game laid out in my prediction, and nearly even got the final score right. It was a pretty ugly game for both sides. Utah looked mediocre. BYU looked mediocre-r. And yet, it's still so frustrating to see. I knew exactly how the game would play out, down to the 75-yard pass by Utah at the end of the first half (called it just before the play), to the missed opportunity after the Falslev punt return, to the "holding" penalty that called back a touchdown, to the lack of interference calls on Utah in spite of much contact throughout the game. [Honestly, how could there have been ZERO interference or ZERO holding calls and ONE post-play penalty on them? There were plenty of opportunities to call any of those penalties, and they called ONE.]
Going into the game, I expect pretty much all of the these things. And then, when they all happen, it still drives me batty. And then Ute fans get so insufferable. If you were REALLY that much better than BYU as they claim, then why can't they put the Cougars away and why do the stats nearly always skew towards BYU in every regard but the final score?
Like I said, good riddance to a bad game that brings out even worse in people. Neither team gets much of anything out of the game. Utah gets a win and a slew of injuries. BYU loses the game, and with it, more and more of their "loyal, strong, and true" fan base. Utah should add a cupcake to get the win without the injuries. BYU should schedule a different (but still decidedly average) team that they can actually have the mental fortitude to beat.
Seriously, BYU had nothing to lose. They wanted the game. They've been talking about the game all offseason. They had a chance to basically ensure that Utah misses a bowl game again, probably ultimately leading to a coaching change there before the 2016 game (even with that, if Kyle misses bowl games 2 of the next 3 seasons, there may be one anyway). And they score 13 points? Van Noy must get tired of having to bail the offense out EVERY SINGLE game! He can't do it every game, guys. Taysom completes less than 40% of his passes again? Perhaps part of that is not throwing a single pass to Cody Hoffman in the red zone until the 4th quarter! The other part is definitely too many deep bombs, though I get that was part of the strategy against Utah, but BYU just does not have the WRs to do that against man defense.
Maybe the 2 years off will be good. BYU can cycle through the players exhibiting the mental lapses that have been killing them. BYU will be amped for that game up in Salt Lake as the young guys are told for 3 years that beating Utah is now a top priority for a change. Utah will once again be arrogant as hell about eking out 4 wins in a row, but probably will not have much else to look forward to as they miss bowl games in 3 out of 4 seasons heading into 2016. If that happens, I say play the 3 scheduled games and bag it. When Utah didn't "need" BYU, they bailed, when their fans "need" us again to try to feel good about something, I say Holmoe should tell them where they can shove it!
Going into the game, I expect pretty much all of the these things. And then, when they all happen, it still drives me batty. And then Ute fans get so insufferable. If you were REALLY that much better than BYU as they claim, then why can't they put the Cougars away and why do the stats nearly always skew towards BYU in every regard but the final score?
Like I said, good riddance to a bad game that brings out even worse in people. Neither team gets much of anything out of the game. Utah gets a win and a slew of injuries. BYU loses the game, and with it, more and more of their "loyal, strong, and true" fan base. Utah should add a cupcake to get the win without the injuries. BYU should schedule a different (but still decidedly average) team that they can actually have the mental fortitude to beat.
Seriously, BYU had nothing to lose. They wanted the game. They've been talking about the game all offseason. They had a chance to basically ensure that Utah misses a bowl game again, probably ultimately leading to a coaching change there before the 2016 game (even with that, if Kyle misses bowl games 2 of the next 3 seasons, there may be one anyway). And they score 13 points? Van Noy must get tired of having to bail the offense out EVERY SINGLE game! He can't do it every game, guys. Taysom completes less than 40% of his passes again? Perhaps part of that is not throwing a single pass to Cody Hoffman in the red zone until the 4th quarter! The other part is definitely too many deep bombs, though I get that was part of the strategy against Utah, but BYU just does not have the WRs to do that against man defense.
Maybe the 2 years off will be good. BYU can cycle through the players exhibiting the mental lapses that have been killing them. BYU will be amped for that game up in Salt Lake as the young guys are told for 3 years that beating Utah is now a top priority for a change. Utah will once again be arrogant as hell about eking out 4 wins in a row, but probably will not have much else to look forward to as they miss bowl games in 3 out of 4 seasons heading into 2016. If that happens, I say play the 3 scheduled games and bag it. When Utah didn't "need" BYU, they bailed, when their fans "need" us again to try to feel good about something, I say Holmoe should tell them where they can shove it!
Friday, September 20, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #3: Prediction
Coming into the season, I was confident that BYU could handle the Utes this year. Really, that was the first time since...LaVell that I felt that way (actually, the Max Hall-Andrew George year I was confident, but that was an inaccurate assumption). However, that dynamic has changed a little bit. Here is why I was confident about BYU and why I'm not now.
1. BYU's Passing Game
I suspected that Taysom combined with Cody Hoffman and some experienced WRs would excel in the passing game. I believed Anae's offense would be similar to what BYU fans got used to from 2006-2010 which was predictable but efficient, and for the most part solid in the passing game. However, so far in 2013, Anae's offense has been neither predictable nor efficient. The passing game has been as bad as I have ever seen out of a BYU team, or really any non-service academy. I was confident that Taysom Hill's arm strength was going to be a large improvement over Riley Nelson's "grit." I thought we'd see better play out of TEs and that Ridley, Falslev, Apo, and the rest of the clan would be better if for no other reason than that they were more experienced. However, they are dropping passes, not getting open, and just generally not making any plays after they catch the ball. It hasn't materialized. But, man, they sure do block well...
2. Utah's Offensive Woes
With Dennis Erickson taking over, Utah had to be better on offense. No offense to BJ but he's no offensive coordinator. However, even with a new OC, it was still a young QB playing with a lot of JC transfers and a heap of underclassmen as backups (to the more experienced starters). Utah State's D is down this year, no question, but Utah still dropped 30 on them. Utah dropped 48 on Oregon State at home last weekend, which is impressive, unless you consider the fact that Eastern Washington dropped 49 on the Beavers AT Oregon State. Regardless of competition, last year's Utah team wouldn't be averaging 40 points/game against the same 3 teams and this team is at almost 50.
3. It Finally Matters
BYU players finally acknowledged in the offseason that the rivalry matters. For as long as I can remember, Utah has always cared more about this game. They have always been the aggressor in the pre-game hype and on the field too. They have always talked about it, year-round. BYU never talked about Utah until Utah week and even then they were somewhat dismissive. In fact, the script has flipped entirely this year. Kyle Whittingham sounds like typical rivalry week Bronco this week and the Cougars sound like typical rivalry week Ute players. In the offseason, players were looking forward to this game more than Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Boise State. I don't think this is necessarily a new trend (unless Utah wins again this year) as ksl.com writer Patrick Kinahan does, but this year, for a change, BYU finally seems to have the passion the Utah players have had for this game for decades now. It only matters more because of the 0-3 factor, in my opinion. If BYU wins, in 2016, the Utes will be right back to caring more, particularly if they miss a bowl game or two in the interim.
Of course, then a video surfaces on the internet of Utah players mocking Mormons...which is 60% of the Ute fan base...so maybe it doesn't matter more to BYU than Utah this year, but it definitely matters more to BYU this year than it has to BYU in other years.
Prelude to a Prediction
So, the three things that I thought would give BYU a comfortable win for a change are not really there in the same magnitude as I originally thought. The one thing that hasn't changed at all is BYU's propensity to make mistakes against Utah and Utah's mental toughness to avoid making the big mistakes against BYU. Last year, BYU seemed to be a slightly better team but had three AWFUL plays that essentially gave 21 points to the Utes, without them even really having to do much. Two years ago, Utah had a better team, but not that much better and 5 UNFORCED turnovers later, Utah is handed 35 points. Three years ago, BYU had a slightly better team and an officiating mistake, compounded by a handful of small 4th quarter errors, and BYU blows a lead they held the entire contest and eventually has a last-second field goal blocked. I could go back and do this for every game under Bronco and Kyle. The teams were pretty even almost every year and the team that made fewer mistakes was almost always Utah and that was the difference in the game.
So how is this year going to be different? How will BYU not commit the same atrocities of prior years? Well, for one, Taysom Hill has shown he is better at handling those inevitable errant snaps than Nelson and Heaps. Realistically, there is no evidence for a #2. There is no reason to think that Taysom Hill and his 33% completion percentage is going to avoid a Max Hall-esque 5 turnover 3rd/4th quarter meltdown. There is no reason to think that BYU's return teams can avoid fumbling the ball on all the punts/kickoffs they receive. There is no reason to believe that BYU is going to sustain drives and flip field position in critical moments as it failed to do in both 2012 and 2010. There is no reason to think that this BYU defense will do a better job at causing Utah turnovers than it has in the past. If anything, BYU's D seems less capable of forcing turnovers through 2 games this season than the teams that haven't forced much of anything against Utah in previous years.
Utah's D has been criticized this season by a lot of people. But their run D hasn't been the reason for the criticism. Unless Taysom can complete some passes and BYU's receivers can man up and make Utah's DBs pay for tight press-man coverage, I don't see BYU being able to exploit the weaknesses in the Utah defense. The front 7 is not the weakness, especially when the Utes don't really have to respect the passing game of BYU (at least not until the Cougars prove otherwise). They can commit 8 guys to the box. It will force BYU to do one of two things: open up the passing game (and be successful at it) or break tackles in the running game (b/c there wouldn't be any help if a LB or SS miss the tackle).
Prediction
The first possession will tell the story. BYU is going to start with the ball. If Utah wins the toss they will defer to get the ball in the 2nd half (like a normal team), if BYU wins it, they will take the ball to "send a message" (or whatever reason Bronco has for constantly starting with the ball even when he wins the coin toss). If BYU goes 3 and out then it's potentially lights out. Based on how these games have gone in the past, BYU cannot afford a slow start. Utah has owned the 3rd quarter the past two seasons (17-0 and 16-0). The last two times in Provo, Utah has owned the second half (40-0 and 14-7). If BYU starts 3 and out, Utah will have good field position, and they can explode for big plays both running and throwing the ball. If it doesn't happen the first possession, it will happen the second, or perhaps maybe the BYU D holds out until the 3rd possession before giving up the big play. But it will happen, and will happen early. BYU can't afford to not be ahead when it does.
With that said, I think BYU goes 3 and out. Utah takes the early lead. The defense rallies around Kyle Van Noy and FINALLY forces some Utah turnovers. Cougars take back the 3rd Q and send the Utes packing early in the 4th as they build up a commanding 3-score lead. Jamaal "only" rushes for 100, Taysom finally passes for 200, KVN scores at least once, and BYU wins 31-17.
Yes, that was a fun scenario to think about. Realistically, I think turnovers, big plays for Utah's O, and too many "three and outs" doom BYU to a 4th consecutive loss. My preseason confidence entirely eroded in a 19-16 Virginia win and weren't restored just b/c BYU ran on an unmotivated and untested Texas D. Utah's run D will clamp down on BYU, as it always has, I'd be shocked if the Cougars got 200 yards rushing. I think Utah probably looks awful doing it, but BYU looks awful-er, and a win is a win is a win (just ask Utah State after their game with Utah). Utah 24, BYU 17. Rest in peace, rivalry! I will not miss you one iota the next two seasons.
1. BYU's Passing Game
I suspected that Taysom combined with Cody Hoffman and some experienced WRs would excel in the passing game. I believed Anae's offense would be similar to what BYU fans got used to from 2006-2010 which was predictable but efficient, and for the most part solid in the passing game. However, so far in 2013, Anae's offense has been neither predictable nor efficient. The passing game has been as bad as I have ever seen out of a BYU team, or really any non-service academy. I was confident that Taysom Hill's arm strength was going to be a large improvement over Riley Nelson's "grit." I thought we'd see better play out of TEs and that Ridley, Falslev, Apo, and the rest of the clan would be better if for no other reason than that they were more experienced. However, they are dropping passes, not getting open, and just generally not making any plays after they catch the ball. It hasn't materialized. But, man, they sure do block well...
2. Utah's Offensive Woes
With Dennis Erickson taking over, Utah had to be better on offense. No offense to BJ but he's no offensive coordinator. However, even with a new OC, it was still a young QB playing with a lot of JC transfers and a heap of underclassmen as backups (to the more experienced starters). Utah State's D is down this year, no question, but Utah still dropped 30 on them. Utah dropped 48 on Oregon State at home last weekend, which is impressive, unless you consider the fact that Eastern Washington dropped 49 on the Beavers AT Oregon State. Regardless of competition, last year's Utah team wouldn't be averaging 40 points/game against the same 3 teams and this team is at almost 50.
3. It Finally Matters
BYU players finally acknowledged in the offseason that the rivalry matters. For as long as I can remember, Utah has always cared more about this game. They have always been the aggressor in the pre-game hype and on the field too. They have always talked about it, year-round. BYU never talked about Utah until Utah week and even then they were somewhat dismissive. In fact, the script has flipped entirely this year. Kyle Whittingham sounds like typical rivalry week Bronco this week and the Cougars sound like typical rivalry week Ute players. In the offseason, players were looking forward to this game more than Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Boise State. I don't think this is necessarily a new trend (unless Utah wins again this year) as ksl.com writer Patrick Kinahan does, but this year, for a change, BYU finally seems to have the passion the Utah players have had for this game for decades now. It only matters more because of the 0-3 factor, in my opinion. If BYU wins, in 2016, the Utes will be right back to caring more, particularly if they miss a bowl game or two in the interim.
Of course, then a video surfaces on the internet of Utah players mocking Mormons...which is 60% of the Ute fan base...so maybe it doesn't matter more to BYU than Utah this year, but it definitely matters more to BYU this year than it has to BYU in other years.
Prelude to a Prediction
So, the three things that I thought would give BYU a comfortable win for a change are not really there in the same magnitude as I originally thought. The one thing that hasn't changed at all is BYU's propensity to make mistakes against Utah and Utah's mental toughness to avoid making the big mistakes against BYU. Last year, BYU seemed to be a slightly better team but had three AWFUL plays that essentially gave 21 points to the Utes, without them even really having to do much. Two years ago, Utah had a better team, but not that much better and 5 UNFORCED turnovers later, Utah is handed 35 points. Three years ago, BYU had a slightly better team and an officiating mistake, compounded by a handful of small 4th quarter errors, and BYU blows a lead they held the entire contest and eventually has a last-second field goal blocked. I could go back and do this for every game under Bronco and Kyle. The teams were pretty even almost every year and the team that made fewer mistakes was almost always Utah and that was the difference in the game.
So how is this year going to be different? How will BYU not commit the same atrocities of prior years? Well, for one, Taysom Hill has shown he is better at handling those inevitable errant snaps than Nelson and Heaps. Realistically, there is no evidence for a #2. There is no reason to think that Taysom Hill and his 33% completion percentage is going to avoid a Max Hall-esque 5 turnover 3rd/4th quarter meltdown. There is no reason to think that BYU's return teams can avoid fumbling the ball on all the punts/kickoffs they receive. There is no reason to believe that BYU is going to sustain drives and flip field position in critical moments as it failed to do in both 2012 and 2010. There is no reason to think that this BYU defense will do a better job at causing Utah turnovers than it has in the past. If anything, BYU's D seems less capable of forcing turnovers through 2 games this season than the teams that haven't forced much of anything against Utah in previous years.
Utah's D has been criticized this season by a lot of people. But their run D hasn't been the reason for the criticism. Unless Taysom can complete some passes and BYU's receivers can man up and make Utah's DBs pay for tight press-man coverage, I don't see BYU being able to exploit the weaknesses in the Utah defense. The front 7 is not the weakness, especially when the Utes don't really have to respect the passing game of BYU (at least not until the Cougars prove otherwise). They can commit 8 guys to the box. It will force BYU to do one of two things: open up the passing game (and be successful at it) or break tackles in the running game (b/c there wouldn't be any help if a LB or SS miss the tackle).
Prediction
The first possession will tell the story. BYU is going to start with the ball. If Utah wins the toss they will defer to get the ball in the 2nd half (like a normal team), if BYU wins it, they will take the ball to "send a message" (or whatever reason Bronco has for constantly starting with the ball even when he wins the coin toss). If BYU goes 3 and out then it's potentially lights out. Based on how these games have gone in the past, BYU cannot afford a slow start. Utah has owned the 3rd quarter the past two seasons (17-0 and 16-0). The last two times in Provo, Utah has owned the second half (40-0 and 14-7). If BYU starts 3 and out, Utah will have good field position, and they can explode for big plays both running and throwing the ball. If it doesn't happen the first possession, it will happen the second, or perhaps maybe the BYU D holds out until the 3rd possession before giving up the big play. But it will happen, and will happen early. BYU can't afford to not be ahead when it does.
With that said, I think BYU goes 3 and out. Utah takes the early lead. The defense rallies around Kyle Van Noy and FINALLY forces some Utah turnovers. Cougars take back the 3rd Q and send the Utes packing early in the 4th as they build up a commanding 3-score lead. Jamaal "only" rushes for 100, Taysom finally passes for 200, KVN scores at least once, and BYU wins 31-17.
Yes, that was a fun scenario to think about. Realistically, I think turnovers, big plays for Utah's O, and too many "three and outs" doom BYU to a 4th consecutive loss. My preseason confidence entirely eroded in a 19-16 Virginia win and weren't restored just b/c BYU ran on an unmotivated and untested Texas D. Utah's run D will clamp down on BYU, as it always has, I'd be shocked if the Cougars got 200 yards rushing. I think Utah probably looks awful doing it, but BYU looks awful-er, and a win is a win is a win (just ask Utah State after their game with Utah). Utah 24, BYU 17. Rest in peace, rivalry! I will not miss you one iota the next two seasons.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #2
A lot of BYU fans I know were convinced that Taysom Hill would solve all woes BYU had over the past few seasons with Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson. Many said BCS. Some even thought it was conceivable to go 12-0 and have a legitimate shot at a national title. I tried to taper everyone's expectations, I learned long ago that everyone's undefeated in fall camp, and a lot of QBs/WRs look good in August against the BYU secondary. Taysom was unproven and inexperienced (a handful of games, mostly in a reserve role, doesn't make one experienced). He would undoubtedly struggle a bit. Now to the meat...
Utah's Passing D
Quite honestly, Utah has had difficulties defending the pass this season. However, let's be honest about what they have seen so far. Chuckie Keeton is, by all accounts, a fantastic collegiate QB. He is both mobile and accurate. Watching him in his first season, he looked very similar to Colin Kaepernick, who dismantled pretty good BYU and Boise State defenses. I saw a lot of similarities with mobility, arm strength, and decisiveness. Keeton also had a lot of options to throw to as the Aggies utilize all three layers (RBs, TEs, and WRs) of the passing game as good as anyone west of the Mississippi. Throw out Weber State, that was a glorified scrimmage. Next up, Utah had to contend with Sean Mannion, an experienced strong-armed QB going on his 3rd year playing under a smart coach, throwing to an NFL-caliber WR in Brandin Cooks.
In Utah's base coverage (man-to-man), those are not good matchups for them. If you ask me, it's one of the big reasons they have struggled in the Pac 12 defensively. They were one of two teams in the MWC that had the talent at DB to play man coverage almost exclusively in that conference. But they were only talented enough to do that consistently against MWC QBs, WRs, and OLs. They can't get the kind of pressure they are used to, especially rushing just 4 or 5 guys, against the better Pac 12 OLs and the Utah DBs are on islands longer than they can handle against the better Pac 12 QBs and WRs. Utah isn't struggling in pass defense right now b/c they are awful; they are struggling b/c they weren't as good as their competition. So let's look at what this week's competition will bring.
BYU's Passing O
Taysom Hill has been asked to do a lot of things for a young signal-caller in his first year as a starter. As much as local BYU-goggled media touted the quality of the WR group for the Cougars, outsiders who look at it rationally have a tough time believing that, outside of Cody Hoffman, there are any prime-time players in the group. Skyler Ridley had one good game last season and disappeared the rest of the season. Falslev will get his but won't demand extra attention from opposing secondaries. Mitch Mathews may be tall, athletic, with a huge vertical, but so was Peter Warrick (Florida State guy who never really lived up to the hype in college and completely flopped in the NFL). "Testing" well doesn't mean playing well. The fact is he had 2 catches last season for a reason. He likewise only has 2 so far this season for a reason. These guys are mostly zone-busters that can pick apart open spaces but can't shake a guy locked in on them in man coverage.
In addition, Robert Anae has placed Taysom Hill in some pretty difficult positions. I didn't have time to go back and re-watch the whole game, but in the first quarter, I found some pretty telling statistics on Taysom Hill. On short passes (target less than 8 yards down the field), he was 3-4 for 26 yards. Admittedly, this included a "screen" where the pass was technically a lateral and running play but Taysom's confidence didn't know that at the time. On medium passes (target is between 8-20 yards down the field), he was 1-6 for 16 yards. On deep passes (target more than 20 yards down the field), he was 0-2. He had twice as many non-short throws as short throws, but completed a third as many.
Additionally, Taysom is 1-4 throwing to the left side of the field for 11 yards. 0-2 across the middle. 3-7 to the right side for 31 yards. He has essentially identical attempts to left/middle as he does to right and triple the completions/yardage.
Advantage: Utah (and it might get ugly)
If Taysom is 1-8 on non-short throws and 1-6 on throws NOT to the right, I'm loading the box and playing press-man coverage on the outside to take away the short routes, with a safety over top on the right side. I would dare Taysom Hill to beat me throwing the ball medium/long and/or left. I would force the BYU WRs to show they are worth any of the preseason accolades Utah media threw their way. I would do that the entire first half without remorse. Other than two long passes to Cody Hoffman against Texas, BYU had one completion over 15 yards (a 16-yard completion in the 1st Q). If they beat me, congratulations. If I were Coach Whit or Sitake, I'd feel comfortable with my guys in those situations.
If Anae doesn't help Hill out (and he's had two weeks to figure this out), the edge here goes to what is statistically a weak Utah pass D (though, again, it is probably better than it appears on paper and has just been burned by good QB/WR play). They probably won't see much of that "good QB/WR play" on Saturday night...maybe BYU's best chance here is to just not turn the ball over in the passing game and beat Utah with a steady diet of running and defense??
Utah's Passing D
Quite honestly, Utah has had difficulties defending the pass this season. However, let's be honest about what they have seen so far. Chuckie Keeton is, by all accounts, a fantastic collegiate QB. He is both mobile and accurate. Watching him in his first season, he looked very similar to Colin Kaepernick, who dismantled pretty good BYU and Boise State defenses. I saw a lot of similarities with mobility, arm strength, and decisiveness. Keeton also had a lot of options to throw to as the Aggies utilize all three layers (RBs, TEs, and WRs) of the passing game as good as anyone west of the Mississippi. Throw out Weber State, that was a glorified scrimmage. Next up, Utah had to contend with Sean Mannion, an experienced strong-armed QB going on his 3rd year playing under a smart coach, throwing to an NFL-caliber WR in Brandin Cooks.
In Utah's base coverage (man-to-man), those are not good matchups for them. If you ask me, it's one of the big reasons they have struggled in the Pac 12 defensively. They were one of two teams in the MWC that had the talent at DB to play man coverage almost exclusively in that conference. But they were only talented enough to do that consistently against MWC QBs, WRs, and OLs. They can't get the kind of pressure they are used to, especially rushing just 4 or 5 guys, against the better Pac 12 OLs and the Utah DBs are on islands longer than they can handle against the better Pac 12 QBs and WRs. Utah isn't struggling in pass defense right now b/c they are awful; they are struggling b/c they weren't as good as their competition. So let's look at what this week's competition will bring.
BYU's Passing O
Taysom Hill has been asked to do a lot of things for a young signal-caller in his first year as a starter. As much as local BYU-goggled media touted the quality of the WR group for the Cougars, outsiders who look at it rationally have a tough time believing that, outside of Cody Hoffman, there are any prime-time players in the group. Skyler Ridley had one good game last season and disappeared the rest of the season. Falslev will get his but won't demand extra attention from opposing secondaries. Mitch Mathews may be tall, athletic, with a huge vertical, but so was Peter Warrick (Florida State guy who never really lived up to the hype in college and completely flopped in the NFL). "Testing" well doesn't mean playing well. The fact is he had 2 catches last season for a reason. He likewise only has 2 so far this season for a reason. These guys are mostly zone-busters that can pick apart open spaces but can't shake a guy locked in on them in man coverage.
In addition, Robert Anae has placed Taysom Hill in some pretty difficult positions. I didn't have time to go back and re-watch the whole game, but in the first quarter, I found some pretty telling statistics on Taysom Hill. On short passes (target less than 8 yards down the field), he was 3-4 for 26 yards. Admittedly, this included a "screen" where the pass was technically a lateral and running play but Taysom's confidence didn't know that at the time. On medium passes (target is between 8-20 yards down the field), he was 1-6 for 16 yards. On deep passes (target more than 20 yards down the field), he was 0-2. He had twice as many non-short throws as short throws, but completed a third as many.
Additionally, Taysom is 1-4 throwing to the left side of the field for 11 yards. 0-2 across the middle. 3-7 to the right side for 31 yards. He has essentially identical attempts to left/middle as he does to right and triple the completions/yardage.
Advantage: Utah (and it might get ugly)
If Taysom is 1-8 on non-short throws and 1-6 on throws NOT to the right, I'm loading the box and playing press-man coverage on the outside to take away the short routes, with a safety over top on the right side. I would dare Taysom Hill to beat me throwing the ball medium/long and/or left. I would force the BYU WRs to show they are worth any of the preseason accolades Utah media threw their way. I would do that the entire first half without remorse. Other than two long passes to Cody Hoffman against Texas, BYU had one completion over 15 yards (a 16-yard completion in the 1st Q). If they beat me, congratulations. If I were Coach Whit or Sitake, I'd feel comfortable with my guys in those situations.
If Anae doesn't help Hill out (and he's had two weeks to figure this out), the edge here goes to what is statistically a weak Utah pass D (though, again, it is probably better than it appears on paper and has just been burned by good QB/WR play). They probably won't see much of that "good QB/WR play" on Saturday night...maybe BYU's best chance here is to just not turn the ball over in the passing game and beat Utah with a steady diet of running and defense??
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Utah-BYU Week, Post #1
This is the last one of these weeks for a few years. I will start by saying I like the two-year break between these next two games. I have stated many times that I would have had no problem if they never played again. I think both teams have outgrown each other and, after the arrival of Urban Meyer, the fan bases just got stupid. I think the only reason one team SHOULD feel the need to play the other is if they become irrelevant and playing the rival would give their fan bases one thing to get excited about...honestly, if I had never lived in Utah, I wouldn't even think about Utah outside of game week. Having lived in Utah...at least 25% of their "fans" are really just anti-BYU folks and I hope "their" team loses every game. 25% are actually Utah fans AND hate BYU. For the other 50%, thanks for being true to yourselves and I hope your team wins every game except for against BYU...keep in mind I pulled these numbers out of thin air, but I've found that to be true in my experience: 1/4, 1/4, 2/4...
BYU Rushing D
BYU is coming in to this game having just lost starting middle linebacker Spencer Hadley this week. The defense has been a strongpoint thus far for BYU, particularly the front 7. However, the loss of a 3-year contributor, vocal and emotional leader, and play-maker cannot be understated, particularly immediately preceding the rivalry game. I think his move to the inside in the middle of fall camp was a bit of a statement about lack of trust in the MLB position as much as it was a vote of confidence in giving more reps to Alani Fua. Who knows, perhaps this binds the team closer and they overcome with a brilliant performance. Although, if they lose another close contest to the Utes, perhaps teammates will feel he was somewhat responsible and not accept him upon his return from suspension as warmly...the funny thing is, he could have been suspended for drinking coffee or having his mustache grow too far below his lips...
Utah Rushing O
Utah is coming in after a hard-fought OT home loss to Oregon State. It was one in which their offense showed it is capable of putting up yards and points. Travis Wilson did his best Taysom Hill impression with his legs (and had more of a Max Hall type effort through the air, i.e. a lot of players involved, decently high completion % and yardage numbers, but with 3 INTs). They also showed the ability to drive the ball, with 4 possessions ending in points that took over 2:30 minutes off the clock, with 2 of those possessions lasting 11 plays. They showed that they are capable of driving the ball and not just needing big plays to score, which hadn't been the case prior to the Oregon State game.
Which is Better?
Right now, this seems to be a strength on strength matchup: Utah is averaging nearly 250 yards/game on the ground (28th in the NCAA), BYU is giving up 120.5 yards/game (35th). Will the loss of Hadley be enough to tip the scales into Utah's favor? Will BYU's lack of depth on the defensive line finally hurt them this week? Or will Wilson be contained by a front 7 who knows the biggest risk Utah poses to them is Wilson rushing for 10 yards/carry? Will the multiple JC transfers involved in Utah's run game falter in the face of some real get-hit-in-the-mouth type of adversity?
I do not have the answers to these questions...I suspect there is some give-and-take here. The loss of Hadley may prove an advantage for Utah. Perhaps conditioning or injury prevent BYU from keeping to their 6-man DL rotation, which may prove costly. BYU can probably keep Wilson wrapped up which will take some pressure off of their secondary. Utah's mostly new/revamped OL hasn't been challenged like they will be on Saturday. James Poole hasn't been hit like he will be (repeatedly) on Saturday night. Needless to say, if Utah gets 250 rushing yards, one would have to think they win. If BYU can hold Utah to 120 yards (and Wilson to 5/carry), it's certainly conceivable that it means a BYU win.
Ultimately, I think the end-result is much closer to BYU's average than Utah's. Utah State, Weber State, and Oregon State aren't exactly defensive juggernauts. Or, at least, Virginia and Texas posed greater challenges to BYU's rush D than USU, WSU, and OSU did to Utah's rush O. I'd put the O/U at about 150 rushing yards for Utah. I'd probably still take the under at that. Comments from the readers' gallery?
BYU Rushing D
BYU is coming in to this game having just lost starting middle linebacker Spencer Hadley this week. The defense has been a strongpoint thus far for BYU, particularly the front 7. However, the loss of a 3-year contributor, vocal and emotional leader, and play-maker cannot be understated, particularly immediately preceding the rivalry game. I think his move to the inside in the middle of fall camp was a bit of a statement about lack of trust in the MLB position as much as it was a vote of confidence in giving more reps to Alani Fua. Who knows, perhaps this binds the team closer and they overcome with a brilliant performance. Although, if they lose another close contest to the Utes, perhaps teammates will feel he was somewhat responsible and not accept him upon his return from suspension as warmly...the funny thing is, he could have been suspended for drinking coffee or having his mustache grow too far below his lips...
Utah Rushing O
Utah is coming in after a hard-fought OT home loss to Oregon State. It was one in which their offense showed it is capable of putting up yards and points. Travis Wilson did his best Taysom Hill impression with his legs (and had more of a Max Hall type effort through the air, i.e. a lot of players involved, decently high completion % and yardage numbers, but with 3 INTs). They also showed the ability to drive the ball, with 4 possessions ending in points that took over 2:30 minutes off the clock, with 2 of those possessions lasting 11 plays. They showed that they are capable of driving the ball and not just needing big plays to score, which hadn't been the case prior to the Oregon State game.
Which is Better?
Right now, this seems to be a strength on strength matchup: Utah is averaging nearly 250 yards/game on the ground (28th in the NCAA), BYU is giving up 120.5 yards/game (35th). Will the loss of Hadley be enough to tip the scales into Utah's favor? Will BYU's lack of depth on the defensive line finally hurt them this week? Or will Wilson be contained by a front 7 who knows the biggest risk Utah poses to them is Wilson rushing for 10 yards/carry? Will the multiple JC transfers involved in Utah's run game falter in the face of some real get-hit-in-the-mouth type of adversity?
I do not have the answers to these questions...I suspect there is some give-and-take here. The loss of Hadley may prove an advantage for Utah. Perhaps conditioning or injury prevent BYU from keeping to their 6-man DL rotation, which may prove costly. BYU can probably keep Wilson wrapped up which will take some pressure off of their secondary. Utah's mostly new/revamped OL hasn't been challenged like they will be on Saturday. James Poole hasn't been hit like he will be (repeatedly) on Saturday night. Needless to say, if Utah gets 250 rushing yards, one would have to think they win. If BYU can hold Utah to 120 yards (and Wilson to 5/carry), it's certainly conceivable that it means a BYU win.
Ultimately, I think the end-result is much closer to BYU's average than Utah's. Utah State, Weber State, and Oregon State aren't exactly defensive juggernauts. Or, at least, Virginia and Texas posed greater challenges to BYU's rush D than USU, WSU, and OSU did to Utah's rush O. I'd put the O/U at about 150 rushing yards for Utah. I'd probably still take the under at that. Comments from the readers' gallery?
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Mo's Model: Week 3 Predictions
In Week 2, my model didn't do quite as well as in Week 1. It was 33-8, though it correctly identified Georgia over South Carolina and Miami over Florida. The funny thing is, one of my main motivations for creating the model was that I could NEVER seem to pick BYU right. So I wanted this to take the subjectivity out of my BYU predictions. It's 0-2 picking BYU so far! Overall, it is 64-10, though after a retroactive change (I gave the service academies a small ratings boost: I had identified a systemic underrating of the academies in the preseason, but it was evident that, as I predicted outside of the model, they would beat Indiana, so I finally made that adjustment), it changes to 65-9. I believe there are a few other teams I should apply that same logic too (Northwestern being the first and foremost).
So, here are the models Week 2 predictions:
Why Play These Games? 30+-point favorites
LSU over Kent State
Florida State over Nevada
Michigan over Akron
Northwestern over Western Michigan
Arkansas over Southern Mississippi
Kansas State over Massachusetts
Rutgers over Eastern Michigan
NIU over Idaho (at least it's a road game for NIU)
3-4 TD Favorites
Oklahoma over Tulsa
Arizona over UTSA
Boise State over Air Force
Rice over Kansas (my model likes Rice)
Middle Tennessee over Memphis
West Virginia over Georgia State
Washington over Illinois
Notre Dame over Purdue
Stanford over Army
Ohio State over Cal
Louisville over Kentucky (ACC exposing façade of SEC defenses this year)
Bowling Green over Indiana
10-20 Point Winners
Oregon over Tennessee
South Carolina over Vanderbilt
Auburn over Mississippi State
USC over Boston College
Ohio over Marshall
Penn State over UCF
Pittsburgh over New Mexico
Fresno State over Colorado
USF over Florida Atlantic
Alabama over Texas A&M
More than a FG, less than a FG/TD
Nebraska over UCLA
ECU over Virginia Tech
Utah over Oregon State (preseason, this was a toss-up)
UNLV over Central Michigan
New Mexico State over UTEP
Iowa over Iowa State
Toss-ups (within 3 points predicted)
Texas over Ole Miss (actually have two models predicting side-by-side, one has Ole Miss by 2, other has Texas by 1)
Arizona State over Wisconsin (same as with UT-Ole Miss)
Model had TCU edging out Tech: WRONG
Louisiana-Monroe over Wake Forest
Ball State over North Texas
Maryland over Connecticut
So, here are the models Week 2 predictions:
Why Play These Games? 30+-point favorites
LSU over Kent State
Florida State over Nevada
Michigan over Akron
Northwestern over Western Michigan
Arkansas over Southern Mississippi
Kansas State over Massachusetts
Rutgers over Eastern Michigan
NIU over Idaho (at least it's a road game for NIU)
3-4 TD Favorites
Oklahoma over Tulsa
Arizona over UTSA
Boise State over Air Force
Rice over Kansas (my model likes Rice)
Middle Tennessee over Memphis
West Virginia over Georgia State
Washington over Illinois
Notre Dame over Purdue
Stanford over Army
Ohio State over Cal
Louisville over Kentucky (ACC exposing façade of SEC defenses this year)
Bowling Green over Indiana
10-20 Point Winners
Oregon over Tennessee
South Carolina over Vanderbilt
Auburn over Mississippi State
USC over Boston College
Ohio over Marshall
Penn State over UCF
Pittsburgh over New Mexico
Fresno State over Colorado
USF over Florida Atlantic
Alabama over Texas A&M
More than a FG, less than a FG/TD
Nebraska over UCLA
ECU over Virginia Tech
Utah over Oregon State (preseason, this was a toss-up)
UNLV over Central Michigan
New Mexico State over UTEP
Iowa over Iowa State
Toss-ups (within 3 points predicted)
Texas over Ole Miss (actually have two models predicting side-by-side, one has Ole Miss by 2, other has Texas by 1)
Arizona State over Wisconsin (same as with UT-Ole Miss)
Model had TCU edging out Tech: WRONG
Louisiana-Monroe over Wake Forest
Ball State over North Texas
Maryland over Connecticut
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
BYU's 2013 Opponents in Week Three
Virginia
After getting drubbed by Oregon last weekend to drop to 1-1, Virginia gets a week off to prepare for an FCS school in week 4.
Texas
The Longhorns are looking to rebound with a new DC against a rising Ole Miss team. I had Ole Miss as a preseason top 10 team. Of course, I had Texas there as well...I still believe Texas has a lot in the tank for the season, if they can avoid tearing apart at the seams. I think Ole Miss is still a bit out of their league playing such a road game: there's still a lot of young players on the squad and winning at Vandy isn't the same as winning at Texas. The SEC has shown a vulnerability to good offenses so far this young season (something I've been saying for a long time: there just aren't but one or two good offenses in their league so their defenses look amazing). Texas isn't necessarily good but they have explosiveness.
Utah
The Utes start their gauntlet run that determines just what kind of season they are going to have. After finding a way to beat Utah State, they had a glorified scrimmage against a bad Weber State team (even by Weber's low standards). They host Oregon State to open Pac 12 play. In the preseason, my model had this game as a toss-up. As a result of Utah's win over Utah State and Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington, this has moved up to a 7-point win for the Utes (Utes have moved from 49 to 35, Oregon State from 16 to 46). Dennis Erickson has been a much better offensive coordinator than the Utes have ever had. So far at least. He'll be challenged in two very different ways the next two games. Oregon State will apply pressure by scoring a lot of points. BYU will apply it by playing solid defense.
Middle Tennessee
I thought the Blue Raiders showed well at North Carolina, in spite of the loss. They host Memphis this weekend. They should win easy.
Utah State
Chuckie had a great day against Air Force, but this was meant to be a down year for the Falcons. They get Weber, who will not lose by 63 to the Aggies. 43, perhaps...
Georgia Tech
The Bumblebees play at Duke this weekend in their second game of the year (first real game). This is Duke's third game (but first real game). If Duke is to make a bowl game this year, they probably need to at least show well in this game, and probably need to win it. The Bees should win by double digits...
Houston
After a big win over Temple on the road in conference play, the Red Cougars take a breather this weekend. Next up, they play at Rice, which should actually be an amazing game...
Boise State
The Broncos get a Friday night opportunity to embarrass Air Force. Both teams were involved in blowouts last weekend, though on opposing ends. I suspect the same will happen here. I wish I had better vibes for Air Force this season, but by all accounts, it's just one of those years where they don't have the horses.
Wisconsin
We know absolutely nothing about Wisconsin after their 2-0 start. Now we find out something: they play at Arizona State. My model has Badgers #27 and Sun Devils #34, with a 1-point edge to the home team. I expect a somewhat higher-scoring affair.
Notre Dame
Time to see how the Irish respond after losing a regular season game. It's a solid, but not spectacular offense paired with a spectacular front 7 and average DBs. Last week, Michigan was able to exploit them. This week, Purdue will not do the same. Model says ND by 3 TDs.
Nevada
The Wolfpack are actually the biggest dog I have in terms of BYU's opponents as they play at Florida State and my model says they lose by 40 points...will it really be that bad? We shall see. But it wouldn't surprise me...
Overall
My model says 7-2 for BYU's opponents this week, with a loss by Wisconsin at Arizona State and by Nevada at Florida State. That's 21-9 on the season (if my predictions are correct) for BYU's opponents this season, which is great at this point!
After getting drubbed by Oregon last weekend to drop to 1-1, Virginia gets a week off to prepare for an FCS school in week 4.
Texas
The Longhorns are looking to rebound with a new DC against a rising Ole Miss team. I had Ole Miss as a preseason top 10 team. Of course, I had Texas there as well...I still believe Texas has a lot in the tank for the season, if they can avoid tearing apart at the seams. I think Ole Miss is still a bit out of their league playing such a road game: there's still a lot of young players on the squad and winning at Vandy isn't the same as winning at Texas. The SEC has shown a vulnerability to good offenses so far this young season (something I've been saying for a long time: there just aren't but one or two good offenses in their league so their defenses look amazing). Texas isn't necessarily good but they have explosiveness.
Utah
The Utes start their gauntlet run that determines just what kind of season they are going to have. After finding a way to beat Utah State, they had a glorified scrimmage against a bad Weber State team (even by Weber's low standards). They host Oregon State to open Pac 12 play. In the preseason, my model had this game as a toss-up. As a result of Utah's win over Utah State and Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington, this has moved up to a 7-point win for the Utes (Utes have moved from 49 to 35, Oregon State from 16 to 46). Dennis Erickson has been a much better offensive coordinator than the Utes have ever had. So far at least. He'll be challenged in two very different ways the next two games. Oregon State will apply pressure by scoring a lot of points. BYU will apply it by playing solid defense.
Middle Tennessee
I thought the Blue Raiders showed well at North Carolina, in spite of the loss. They host Memphis this weekend. They should win easy.
Utah State
Chuckie had a great day against Air Force, but this was meant to be a down year for the Falcons. They get Weber, who will not lose by 63 to the Aggies. 43, perhaps...
Georgia Tech
The Bumblebees play at Duke this weekend in their second game of the year (first real game). This is Duke's third game (but first real game). If Duke is to make a bowl game this year, they probably need to at least show well in this game, and probably need to win it. The Bees should win by double digits...
Houston
After a big win over Temple on the road in conference play, the Red Cougars take a breather this weekend. Next up, they play at Rice, which should actually be an amazing game...
Boise State
The Broncos get a Friday night opportunity to embarrass Air Force. Both teams were involved in blowouts last weekend, though on opposing ends. I suspect the same will happen here. I wish I had better vibes for Air Force this season, but by all accounts, it's just one of those years where they don't have the horses.
Wisconsin
We know absolutely nothing about Wisconsin after their 2-0 start. Now we find out something: they play at Arizona State. My model has Badgers #27 and Sun Devils #34, with a 1-point edge to the home team. I expect a somewhat higher-scoring affair.
Notre Dame
Time to see how the Irish respond after losing a regular season game. It's a solid, but not spectacular offense paired with a spectacular front 7 and average DBs. Last week, Michigan was able to exploit them. This week, Purdue will not do the same. Model says ND by 3 TDs.
Nevada
The Wolfpack are actually the biggest dog I have in terms of BYU's opponents as they play at Florida State and my model says they lose by 40 points...will it really be that bad? We shall see. But it wouldn't surprise me...
Overall
My model says 7-2 for BYU's opponents this week, with a loss by Wisconsin at Arizona State and by Nevada at Florida State. That's 21-9 on the season (if my predictions are correct) for BYU's opponents this season, which is great at this point!
Monday, September 9, 2013
Three Texas-BYU Stats of Note
Obviously the rushing record is incredible. 550 rushing yards against anybody is incredible, even when the triple option teams play bad FCS schools, but this was a ranked BCS team (that may not be any good at all, but still). Three separate BYU players set career highs in rushing yards (Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams, and Paul Lasike), along with setting BYU and Texas records too.
Completion % Is On Anae Now
To me the biggest stat is 9-26, 36% completion percentage, for Taysom Hill. To me, this isn't an issue of Taysom Hill at this point. This is on Anae. These throws are all intermediate or deep throws. Anae isn't calling slants, quick outs, screens or swing passes. Most of Hill's throws are up the field where he just isn't comfortable yet. Let the man build some confidence and then let him get the ball up the field. BYU will not be able to run at will against Utah. The passing game has to be there. Barring another 350+ yard rushing game, anything sub-50% will be 4 years in a row of losses to a team that was maybe marginally better on average (on paper). Anae has to get Hill in better situations throwing the football!
Avoiding Three and Out
I thought the fact that BYU only had 3 three and outs was another important stat for the offense. Last week, nearly half the possessions were three and out. The difference between Virginia and Texas: 3rd and short to avoid a third straight three and out against Texas, Taysom keeps and runs for a 68-yard TD. Taysom wasn't comfortable enough doing that against Virginia. Credit Anae for making adjustments in the running game to get Taysom ready. He needs to copy that in the passing game!
Limit Texas' Big Plays
In Week One, Texas burned New Mexico State for 10 plays over 20 yards. Going into the game, I had hoped BYU would keep this number under 7, and if they could keep it to 5 or fewer, I figured BYU would have a legitimate chance to win. BYU gave up 4 meaningful plays over 20 yards and a 5th in the final 30 seconds of the game.
Mo Thoughts
If all I knew going into the game was that BYU would be -2 in turnover margin, Taysom would be under 40% again, and Texas would gain 445 yards (including 313 in the air), I'd have said BYU was dead in the water. The OL was flying around out there. They just beat Texas into submission with their physicality from start of play to the whistle (and a couple hits maybe slightly after the whistle).
Several of you have asked me what I thought of the game. It was probably about the same as you. My first initial thought was: how did BYU do something like this against Texas? Followed immediately by: how did the Cougars lose to Virginia? If BYU managed a 10-2 finish (I am not making that prediction, FYI, sticking with my 8-4), how much would it hurt to know that the one thing b/w BYU and a BCS game was Virginia...
Heading into Utah, BYU gets a bye to regroup and refocus. I would like to see the Cougars play with passion for once. This year's Utah game cannot be "just another game" as BYU has played it so many times under Bronco. BYU has to want it more than Utah this year b/c the teams are so evenly matched. Play with some fire, hatred if it must be: that has been the Utes secret weapon for so many years in the rivalry. BYU has been too "classy" on the field and it's led to complete mental, followed by physical, annihilation. Stoop to their level this year: be a little classless, Cougars!
Completion % Is On Anae Now
To me the biggest stat is 9-26, 36% completion percentage, for Taysom Hill. To me, this isn't an issue of Taysom Hill at this point. This is on Anae. These throws are all intermediate or deep throws. Anae isn't calling slants, quick outs, screens or swing passes. Most of Hill's throws are up the field where he just isn't comfortable yet. Let the man build some confidence and then let him get the ball up the field. BYU will not be able to run at will against Utah. The passing game has to be there. Barring another 350+ yard rushing game, anything sub-50% will be 4 years in a row of losses to a team that was maybe marginally better on average (on paper). Anae has to get Hill in better situations throwing the football!
Avoiding Three and Out
I thought the fact that BYU only had 3 three and outs was another important stat for the offense. Last week, nearly half the possessions were three and out. The difference between Virginia and Texas: 3rd and short to avoid a third straight three and out against Texas, Taysom keeps and runs for a 68-yard TD. Taysom wasn't comfortable enough doing that against Virginia. Credit Anae for making adjustments in the running game to get Taysom ready. He needs to copy that in the passing game!
Limit Texas' Big Plays
In Week One, Texas burned New Mexico State for 10 plays over 20 yards. Going into the game, I had hoped BYU would keep this number under 7, and if they could keep it to 5 or fewer, I figured BYU would have a legitimate chance to win. BYU gave up 4 meaningful plays over 20 yards and a 5th in the final 30 seconds of the game.
Mo Thoughts
If all I knew going into the game was that BYU would be -2 in turnover margin, Taysom would be under 40% again, and Texas would gain 445 yards (including 313 in the air), I'd have said BYU was dead in the water. The OL was flying around out there. They just beat Texas into submission with their physicality from start of play to the whistle (and a couple hits maybe slightly after the whistle).
Several of you have asked me what I thought of the game. It was probably about the same as you. My first initial thought was: how did BYU do something like this against Texas? Followed immediately by: how did the Cougars lose to Virginia? If BYU managed a 10-2 finish (I am not making that prediction, FYI, sticking with my 8-4), how much would it hurt to know that the one thing b/w BYU and a BCS game was Virginia...
Heading into Utah, BYU gets a bye to regroup and refocus. I would like to see the Cougars play with passion for once. This year's Utah game cannot be "just another game" as BYU has played it so many times under Bronco. BYU has to want it more than Utah this year b/c the teams are so evenly matched. Play with some fire, hatred if it must be: that has been the Utes secret weapon for so many years in the rivalry. BYU has been too "classy" on the field and it's led to complete mental, followed by physical, annihilation. Stoop to their level this year: be a little classless, Cougars!
Saturday, September 7, 2013
Notre Dame at Michigan Prediction
I've been known to be a bit down on Michigan heading into this season, and with good reason. They don't have a ton of experience in their depth chart, they're relying on a ton of freshmen to have immediate impacts, they have an above average QB (that hasn't faced anything similar to ND's D), and their schedule is pretty difficult. I can see them winning 8 games, but perhaps only 7, or even 6. But I don't see them contending for a Big Ten title this season. They'll be eliminated one or two losses before getting beat by Ohio State.
Now enter Notre Dame to a prime time game. The environment won't stress Notre Dame. If anything, the late start might have an impact on them more than anything. Rees has grown up a lot the past two seasons. He found some playmakers last week and looks equally confident in throwing the ball to 4 or 5 different guys. The OL was very assignment sound last week against Temple, which cannot be overlooked in its importance. Physicality is one thing with an OL, which ND has, but if they aren't blocking the right guys, it doesn't matter. They should hold their own against the Wolverines front line. They blocked against better LBs all summer. Honestly, the Michigan D should not bother Notre Dame too much. The Irish can sustain drives and put pressure on Michigan's O to do the same.
However, they may have to put up points. Devin Gardner had a "nice" game against overmatched Central Michigan. But everybody on the offense did. How will Gardner handle the kind of stress the ND front 7 can bring? Connor Reilly, who will be a pretty decent QB for Temple, had a tough time getting things going and ended up completing just 50% of his passes. That will not do. It's got to start with the running game for Michigan. They have the horses to get a nice rhythm going in the ground game, they just can't afford to turn the ball over.
As a Michigan fan I would worry about turning the ball over. Gardner has been known to make poor decisions and got away with quite a few bad throws/decisions last season (in the few games I saw, there were at least 5 or 6, even while throwing 5 picks in 126 attempts, which is maybe slightly above average). Notre Dame does a great job of making you pay for your mistakes. This isn't Central Michigan or Northwestern. You cannot mess up and get away with it.
Notre Dame beat Michigan (in one of the ugliest games I've ever attended) last season. Two years ago, the game had the wild finish with Michigan emerging victorious in the most improbable of manners (that I missed as I was driving from Austin to San Antonio after one of the other ugliest games I've ever attended, BYU at Texas). I can't to see what the 2013 version has in store. If I were a betting man, I'd see that line at -4 to Michigan and I'd take Notre Dame on the money line, just to squeeze some extra juice into my winnings. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 17.
Now enter Notre Dame to a prime time game. The environment won't stress Notre Dame. If anything, the late start might have an impact on them more than anything. Rees has grown up a lot the past two seasons. He found some playmakers last week and looks equally confident in throwing the ball to 4 or 5 different guys. The OL was very assignment sound last week against Temple, which cannot be overlooked in its importance. Physicality is one thing with an OL, which ND has, but if they aren't blocking the right guys, it doesn't matter. They should hold their own against the Wolverines front line. They blocked against better LBs all summer. Honestly, the Michigan D should not bother Notre Dame too much. The Irish can sustain drives and put pressure on Michigan's O to do the same.
However, they may have to put up points. Devin Gardner had a "nice" game against overmatched Central Michigan. But everybody on the offense did. How will Gardner handle the kind of stress the ND front 7 can bring? Connor Reilly, who will be a pretty decent QB for Temple, had a tough time getting things going and ended up completing just 50% of his passes. That will not do. It's got to start with the running game for Michigan. They have the horses to get a nice rhythm going in the ground game, they just can't afford to turn the ball over.
As a Michigan fan I would worry about turning the ball over. Gardner has been known to make poor decisions and got away with quite a few bad throws/decisions last season (in the few games I saw, there were at least 5 or 6, even while throwing 5 picks in 126 attempts, which is maybe slightly above average). Notre Dame does a great job of making you pay for your mistakes. This isn't Central Michigan or Northwestern. You cannot mess up and get away with it.
Notre Dame beat Michigan (in one of the ugliest games I've ever attended) last season. Two years ago, the game had the wild finish with Michigan emerging victorious in the most improbable of manners (that I missed as I was driving from Austin to San Antonio after one of the other ugliest games I've ever attended, BYU at Texas). I can't to see what the 2013 version has in store. If I were a betting man, I'd see that line at -4 to Michigan and I'd take Notre Dame on the money line, just to squeeze some extra juice into my winnings. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 17.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Texas at BYU Prediction
Currently, Vegas has Texas as only 7-point favorites. I heard several ESPN Commentators mention today and during the BC-Wake Forest game talking about BYU's defense being a real test, and potentially a wake-up call for Texas. So BYU fans are not alone in thinking BYU can stay in this contest.
BYU, defensively, can make it hard for Texas. There is no doubt about that in my mind. Until the flood gates opened the last 32 minutes of the game last week, Texas could not sustain drives at all. After that first big play TD, NMSU couldn't hold the Horns to plays of less than 50 yards. If BYU can force Texas to drive down the field on them, it'll be a long night for them offensively. Especially at altitude. Except for the redshirt seniors (who actually played as freshmen), no one on the roster has played a collegiate game over 1,000 feet above sea level.
However, on the flip side, BYU didn't do much offensively at Virginia. Conditions were different, obviously, but BYU could not get back-to-back first downs for basically the entire game. They had a drive here and a drive there, but that was it: here once and there once and never again. New Mexico State had some success against Texas throwing the football. They broke 100 yards rushing, but averaged just 2.7 yards/carry (with only 1 sack, meaning that 2.7 was 37 times trying to run the ball).
Texas, while squelching the run, didn't get to the QB last week. BYU has a nimble QB and, while the OL has been underperforming for too many years ow, a better line than the NMSU Aggies. A first year starting QB completed 70% of his passes against the Longhorns. BYU's WRs should be better, even if Andrew McDonald is a better QB at this point in time than Taysom Hill. Hill, after completing a paltry 32% last week in a monsoon, should see that creep up north of 60%. If not, BYU is in trouble. Jamaal Williams can run the football, but if there is no threat of a passing attack, Texas can key in on him and man-up in the passing game.
To win, BYU needs to eliminate big offensive plays by the Longhorns. They need to average at least 3.5/carry and run the ball 30-40 times. They need to complete 60% of their passes and average over 6 yards/attempt and over 10 yards/completion. They need to possess the ball at least 28 minutes. They can't get caught running 90+ plays in 26 minutes. If they can get the Texas offense impatient (which they won't do with 6 play 75 second drives), it might lead to opportunities for turnovers. There is no reason they couldn't do any of those things. Doing all of them, on the other hand, might prove difficult.
Texas has some studs at WR. They have coaches that know when to push pace and when to slow it down (though I think they have a tendency to overthrow, which may be especially tempting given BYU's concerns in the secondary). BYU probably won't be able to contain big plays for 4 quarters. So they'll need to generate a few of their own. If Hoffman plays, if Van Noy gets in the zone, if Taysom's legs get rolling, then there is potential for some fireworks.
So yes, BYU could win the game. However, I marked this one down as an L as soon as spring practice was over. My statistical model (which admittedly has a slobbering love affair with the Longhorns) initially liked Texas by 13, but now it's down to 9 points. I think there will be some offense in this game for both teams. Texas is vulnerable on D and BYU should be able to get a couple of plays down the field. But I think Texas brings too much firepower and BYU's red zone O is unproven (and I think will be proven ineffective against Texas' front 7). It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU in it, possibly even leading in the 3rd Q. But ultimately Texas wins a game where the final score is not indicative of the game: Texas 34, BYU 23.
That's my thoughts, how about you? #TEXvsBYU #BYUFootball
BYU, defensively, can make it hard for Texas. There is no doubt about that in my mind. Until the flood gates opened the last 32 minutes of the game last week, Texas could not sustain drives at all. After that first big play TD, NMSU couldn't hold the Horns to plays of less than 50 yards. If BYU can force Texas to drive down the field on them, it'll be a long night for them offensively. Especially at altitude. Except for the redshirt seniors (who actually played as freshmen), no one on the roster has played a collegiate game over 1,000 feet above sea level.
However, on the flip side, BYU didn't do much offensively at Virginia. Conditions were different, obviously, but BYU could not get back-to-back first downs for basically the entire game. They had a drive here and a drive there, but that was it: here once and there once and never again. New Mexico State had some success against Texas throwing the football. They broke 100 yards rushing, but averaged just 2.7 yards/carry (with only 1 sack, meaning that 2.7 was 37 times trying to run the ball).
Texas, while squelching the run, didn't get to the QB last week. BYU has a nimble QB and, while the OL has been underperforming for too many years ow, a better line than the NMSU Aggies. A first year starting QB completed 70% of his passes against the Longhorns. BYU's WRs should be better, even if Andrew McDonald is a better QB at this point in time than Taysom Hill. Hill, after completing a paltry 32% last week in a monsoon, should see that creep up north of 60%. If not, BYU is in trouble. Jamaal Williams can run the football, but if there is no threat of a passing attack, Texas can key in on him and man-up in the passing game.
To win, BYU needs to eliminate big offensive plays by the Longhorns. They need to average at least 3.5/carry and run the ball 30-40 times. They need to complete 60% of their passes and average over 6 yards/attempt and over 10 yards/completion. They need to possess the ball at least 28 minutes. They can't get caught running 90+ plays in 26 minutes. If they can get the Texas offense impatient (which they won't do with 6 play 75 second drives), it might lead to opportunities for turnovers. There is no reason they couldn't do any of those things. Doing all of them, on the other hand, might prove difficult.
Texas has some studs at WR. They have coaches that know when to push pace and when to slow it down (though I think they have a tendency to overthrow, which may be especially tempting given BYU's concerns in the secondary). BYU probably won't be able to contain big plays for 4 quarters. So they'll need to generate a few of their own. If Hoffman plays, if Van Noy gets in the zone, if Taysom's legs get rolling, then there is potential for some fireworks.
So yes, BYU could win the game. However, I marked this one down as an L as soon as spring practice was over. My statistical model (which admittedly has a slobbering love affair with the Longhorns) initially liked Texas by 13, but now it's down to 9 points. I think there will be some offense in this game for both teams. Texas is vulnerable on D and BYU should be able to get a couple of plays down the field. But I think Texas brings too much firepower and BYU's red zone O is unproven (and I think will be proven ineffective against Texas' front 7). It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU in it, possibly even leading in the 3rd Q. But ultimately Texas wins a game where the final score is not indicative of the game: Texas 34, BYU 23.
That's my thoughts, how about you? #TEXvsBYU #BYUFootball
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Here are the post week 1 rankings. Ole Miss moved up, as did Clemson. Georgia (loss) and Stanford (bye) moved out of the top 10. BYU still checked in the top 50 at #49.
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Ohio State |
| 3 | Ole Miss |
| 4 | Texas |
| 5 | LSU |
| 6 | Notre Dame |
| 7 | Florida State |
| 8 | Oregon |
| 9 | Nebraska |
| 10 | Oklahoma |
| 11 | Stanford |
| 12 | Clemson |
| 13 | OK State |
| 14 | Georgia |
| 15 | Miami |
| 16 | Florida |
| 17 | Washington |
| 18 | Louisville |
| 19 | Wisconsin |
| 20 | Michigan State |
| 21 | USC |
| 22 | TCU |
| 23 | NIU |
| 24 | ECU |
| 25 | Texas A&M |
| 26 | South Carolina |
| 27 | Bowling Green |
| 28 | Arizona State |
| 29 | Oregon State |
| 30 | Boise State |
| 31 | Fresno State |
| 32 | Georgia Tech |
| 33 | Auburn |
| 34 | Tennessee |
| 35 | Virginia Tech |
| 36 | UCLA |
| 37 | Arizona |
| 38 | Cincinnati |
| 39 | Utah State |
| 40 | Michigan |
| 41 | Utah |
| 42 | Ohio |
| 43 | NC State |
| 44 | Kansas State |
| 45 | Missouri |
| 46 | Rice |
| 47 | Northwestern |
| 48 | Mississippi State |
| 49 | BYU |
| 50 | Arkansas |
| 51 | Minnesota |
| 52 | Texas Tech |
| 53 | Baylor |
| 54 | Toledo |
| 55 | Vanderbilt |
| 56 | Rutgers |
| 57 | MTSU |
| 58 | Penn State |
| 59 | Marshall |
| 60 | North Carolina |
| 61 | ULM |
| 62 | Lafayette |
| 63 | Houston |
| 64 | Boston College |
| 65 | WKU |
| 66 | San Jose State |
| 67 | Wake Forest |
| 68 | Temple |
| 69 | Pittsburgh |
| 70 | Arkansas State |
| 71 | Ball State |
| 72 | Purdue |
| 73 | Navy |
| 74 | San Diego State |
| 75 | Tulsa |
| 76 | Virginia |
| 77 | West Virginia |
| 78 | Duke |
| 79 | UCF |
| 80 | Texas State |
| 81 | Indiana |
| 82 | Washington State |
| 83 | UTSA |
| 84 | North Texas |
| 85 | USF |
| 86 | Kentucky |
| 87 | Troy |
| 88 | Connecticut |
| 89 | Iowa |
| 90 | Buffalo |
| 91 | Hawaii |
| 92 | Illinois |
| 93 | Kent State |
| 94 | Colorado State |
| 95 | Colorado |
| 96 | Syracuse |
| 97 | SMU |
| 98 | UNLV |
| 99 | Nevada |
| 100 | Army |
| 101 | Memphis |
| 102 | California |
| 103 | ODU |
| 104 | Maryland |
| 105 | South Alabama |
| 106 | CMU |
| 107 | Iowa St |
| 108 | Air Force |
| 109 | Tulane |
| 110 | Wyoming |
| 111 | Kansas |
| 112 | Southern Mississippi |
| 113 | Louisiana Tech |
| 114 | UAB |
| 115 | New Mexico State |
| 116 | Georgia State |
| 117 | UTEP |
| 118 | EMU |
| 119 | WMU |
| 120 | FAU |
| 121 | New Mexico |
| 122 | Miami OH |
| 123 | Akron |
| 124 | U Mass |
| 125 | FIU |
| 126 | Idaho |
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Checking Mo's Model in Week One
So I spent hours and hours this summer putting together a statistical model to attempt to predict individual games and season record for teams. Here is a brief recap of how it did.
The model missed all 8 of the FCS wins over FBS teams. My model isn't really designed for finding which of those FCS "upsets" will happen, since I only include data for FBS schools. In looking back at the actual losses that occurred, my model would have predicted 3 of the 8 games correctly if I had included the FCS data into it.
Excluding FCS games and looking at straight winners, not looking at the point spread, the model went 32-2. The only misses: BYU at Virginia and Colorado State vs. Colorado.
So the model was accurate in predicting the other upsets and close games that occurred over the weekend. It got Clemson over Georgia, LSU over TCU, Ole Miss over Vandy, Washington over Boise State, Fresno State over Rutgers, Cincinnati over Purdue, Northwestern over Cal, Texas Tech over SMU, Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Texas State over Southern Mississippi, UTSA over New Mexico, and Troy over UAB.
If you are in a Pick'Em League, here are my "upset" (or close game) picks for the week:
Boston College over Wake Forest
Miami over Florida
Temple over Houston (Houston better team, but on the road)
Bowling Green over Kent State
Ball State over Army
Utah State over Air Force
Georgia over South Carolina
Duke over Memphis
Indiana over Navy (Navy better team, but on the road: I personally will pick Navy here)
Texas over BYU
Notre Dame over Michigan
UTEP over New Mexico
I haven't actually looked at the FCS matchups yet, I'd put UMass, Akron, Western Michigan, and Georgia State on upset alert. Kansas, Colorado, and Vanderbilt are the 3 BCS teams I think most likely to lose...
The model missed all 8 of the FCS wins over FBS teams. My model isn't really designed for finding which of those FCS "upsets" will happen, since I only include data for FBS schools. In looking back at the actual losses that occurred, my model would have predicted 3 of the 8 games correctly if I had included the FCS data into it.
Excluding FCS games and looking at straight winners, not looking at the point spread, the model went 32-2. The only misses: BYU at Virginia and Colorado State vs. Colorado.
So the model was accurate in predicting the other upsets and close games that occurred over the weekend. It got Clemson over Georgia, LSU over TCU, Ole Miss over Vandy, Washington over Boise State, Fresno State over Rutgers, Cincinnati over Purdue, Northwestern over Cal, Texas Tech over SMU, Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Texas State over Southern Mississippi, UTSA over New Mexico, and Troy over UAB.
If you are in a Pick'Em League, here are my "upset" (or close game) picks for the week:
Boston College over Wake Forest
Miami over Florida
Temple over Houston (Houston better team, but on the road)
Bowling Green over Kent State
Ball State over Army
Utah State over Air Force
Georgia over South Carolina
Duke over Memphis
Indiana over Navy (Navy better team, but on the road: I personally will pick Navy here)
Texas over BYU
Notre Dame over Michigan
UTEP over New Mexico
I haven't actually looked at the FCS matchups yet, I'd put UMass, Akron, Western Michigan, and Georgia State on upset alert. Kansas, Colorado, and Vanderbilt are the 3 BCS teams I think most likely to lose...
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Tuesday Tidbits (Late for 9/3/2013): BYU vs. BCS Opponents
Over the last 5 seasons, plus 1 game this season, BYU has played 19 games against teams in BCS conferences. Much to BYU fans' surprise, BYU, in spite of many challenges, has a 9-10 record in those games (most of them think it's worse! Die-hards can't believe it's that bad). The more surprising facts come when looking deeper at the numbers.
First off, remove those 19 games and Bronco Mendenhall has won over 80% of his games, including those games that percentage drops to 70.7%. BYU has rushed for over 100 yards 8 times in those 19 games. 3 times BYU was held to under 50 yards rushing. BYU has passed for 250 yards 9 times, 5 of those were Max Hall. 5 times BYU was held to under 200 yards passing. BYU has scored 28 points or more 8 times. 5 times BYU was held to 14 points or less.
In those 19 games, BYU averaged 116 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 25.2 points/game. In all games over the course of that same period, BYU averaged 152 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 30.9 points/game. In games against non-BCS opponents in the same period, BYU averaged 171 yards rushing, 262 yards passing, and 34.0 points/game.
If someone wanted to quantify BYU's struggles against BCS conference opponents (which I do), this will do it. BYU averages 55 fewer rushing yards, 6 fewer passing yards, and 8.8 fewer points/game. Another key stat that perhaps I will research prior to Utah, appropriately, is how BYU does in the turnover margin against BCS conference opponents.
Anyway, everyone can agree that BCS opponents are more difficult in general, but here is exactly how much more difficult BYU has found them since 2008. It is amazing how big of a difference 61 yards of offense/game makes.
I did some other number crunching to try to get a rough estimate of what BYU needs to accomplish to beat BCS conference opponents. By my calculations BYU needs 135 rushing yards, 250 passing yards, and at least 29 points to win. Additionally, home-field advantage has had some, but minimal, bearing on the outcome of games against BCS conference opponents: BYU is 3-2 at home (60%), 4-6 on the road (40%), and 2-2 at neutral sites (50%).
First off, remove those 19 games and Bronco Mendenhall has won over 80% of his games, including those games that percentage drops to 70.7%. BYU has rushed for over 100 yards 8 times in those 19 games. 3 times BYU was held to under 50 yards rushing. BYU has passed for 250 yards 9 times, 5 of those were Max Hall. 5 times BYU was held to under 200 yards passing. BYU has scored 28 points or more 8 times. 5 times BYU was held to 14 points or less.
In those 19 games, BYU averaged 116 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 25.2 points/game. In all games over the course of that same period, BYU averaged 152 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 30.9 points/game. In games against non-BCS opponents in the same period, BYU averaged 171 yards rushing, 262 yards passing, and 34.0 points/game.
If someone wanted to quantify BYU's struggles against BCS conference opponents (which I do), this will do it. BYU averages 55 fewer rushing yards, 6 fewer passing yards, and 8.8 fewer points/game. Another key stat that perhaps I will research prior to Utah, appropriately, is how BYU does in the turnover margin against BCS conference opponents.
Anyway, everyone can agree that BCS opponents are more difficult in general, but here is exactly how much more difficult BYU has found them since 2008. It is amazing how big of a difference 61 yards of offense/game makes.
I did some other number crunching to try to get a rough estimate of what BYU needs to accomplish to beat BCS conference opponents. By my calculations BYU needs 135 rushing yards, 250 passing yards, and at least 29 points to win. Additionally, home-field advantage has had some, but minimal, bearing on the outcome of games against BCS conference opponents: BYU is 3-2 at home (60%), 4-6 on the road (40%), and 2-2 at neutral sites (50%).
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