BYU Offense vs. Utah Defense
The Cougars have been moving the ball and scoring points, commanding the line of scrimmage, throwing, passing, etc. the past few games. But they still have a freshman QB and a lot of young players stepping onto the rivalry for the first time (or at least their first time at Utah). The running game has been their strength. They have three RBs that have been big parts of BYU's offense: DiLuigi is the feature back, Kariya is the short yardage back, and Quezada has emerged lately as a do-everything kind of back. There are 4 main receiving targets for Heaps to hit: DiLuigi is the main target out of the backfield, Hoffman is looking like a deep threat lately, Ashworth has stepped up and carried the passing game the past month, and McKay Jacobson has been the short, possession receiver. There are no TEs in the main passing mix, though BYU TEs have traditionally had good games against Utah. Devin Mahina would be my guess as the TE with the best chance to get 2 or more receptions tomorrow.
Utah's defense has really shut down opposing rushing attacks, holding opponents to 107 yards/game. Part of that could be attributed to getting big leads and forcing opponents to pass, but you cannot argue with 3.14 yards/carry. The secondary has not been as good as a normal Utah secondary is: they have not been able to lock-down in the passing game. They play a high-risk, high-reward man-to-man defense and this year has been more risk than reward, particularly the last 4 weeks. For the most part, the word to describe this defense is dominant. They have big and fast defensive linemen, very active linebackers that can run sideline-to-sideline in coverage, and athletic, aggressive defensive backs that are used as blitzers and are solid in run support.
I would expect Utah's defense to really get aggressive and throw a lot of looks at Jake Heaps and try to confuse him. I suppose the other strategy they could employ would be 8 in the box and force Heaps and the WRs to beat them through the air instead of mixing the coverage and trying to confuse them. The Cougars will need to rely on the rushing attack, and I believe BYU can have more success in the running game than most teams have had against Utah, if they stay as dynamic as they have been the past few weeks. A traditional Anae attack will not get 200 yards against Utah. He has to mix it up like he has been.
BYU's Defense vs. Utah's Offense
Utah has very good balance. Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide can run between the tackles and outside, both averaging over 4.5 yards/carry. Jordan Wynn is a good, not great QB. Jereme Brooks, Shaky Smithson, and DeVonte Christopher are shifty, tough to tackle in the open field WRs, with 6 receiving plays of over 50 yards on the season. They have a big offensive line, with the exception of LT John Cullen who is a little undersized. They are superb in pass protection, giving up only 7 sacks in 11 games (though all 7 have been in the last 4 games). They also open a lot of holes in the running game, leading an attack averaging 4.8 yards/carry and 163 yards/game, with 26 rushing TDs on the season.
BYU's defense has been pretty dominant the past few games. Their defensive line has been eating up blockers, LBs have been making plays in pass coverage and the running game, and the secondary has been very solid in limiting yards after catch. They also haven't seen an offense with the skill, speed, and size of Utah in quite some time. Their defensive line has been playing inspired, but they are paper thin: any injuries, even minor ones, against Utah could change the entire game. The LBs are deep with a lot of different skill sets, pass rushers, run stoppers, and coverage specialists: if Jordan Wynn can recognize who is out there, he can find the mismatches that we wants. The DBs have turned into a strength the past few weeks. They force QBs to be accurate as they are always in the vicinity of the WRs.
Utah will be able to move the ball against BYU somewhat easily, compared to what BYU has given up in recent games. I would be shocked if Utah didn't get 350, or even 400, yards. The key will be the red zone: can they get TDs or will they have to settle for field goals?
Prediction
People say "anything can happen in a rivalry game." This is a true statement. However, it seems to be a very one-sided statement in terms of this rivalry. When BYU is the better team, anything can happen. When Utah is the better team, they tend to dominate the game. I believe that Utah is the better team this season. They are more experienced, deeper, and have the home field advantage. The win against SDSU showed they are resilient and not just "front-runners" as they appeared to be the rest of the season. The score starts 0-0 and anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see an outcome anything other than Utah winning by double-digits. Look for some trick plays from Utah on offense and some serious blitzing from their defense. If BYU can contain the trick plays and pick up the blitzes, they have a chance. I think they have too many freshmen, too many people stepping into Rice-Eccles for the first time to pull it out, particularly on offense. BYU must get ahead early to have any chance: if the Utes smell blood in the 3rd quarter, they will go in for the kill. I think they get the kill this season. Utah 34, BYU 17.
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