First off, this game will be broadcast on ESPN at 6pm, Mountain. If you do not have cable, satellite, etc. you can probably find this game through your internet service provider at ESPN3.com. Most major internet providers provide this service for free. Second, if you are attending this matchup and headed from anywhere south of Salt Lake City: leave plenty early. Friday night before General Conference is the absolute worst day for traffic of the year from Spanish Fork to Centerville. It will take you 3-4 hours to get to Logan if you leave after 3:30pm. Now to the matchups:
BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's defense has been gashed for some kind of big yardage every game. Oklahoma rushed and passed for over 200 yards. Idaho State was able to throw for nearly 250. Fresno State rushed for 230. San Diego State threw for 362 and had over 500 total yards of offense. They have also given up lots of points: 31, 17, 41, and 41.
BYU has been able to run the ball effectively in every game, except the Florida State game, when they didn't do anything effectively. DiLuigi should get 15 carries this game, Quezada should get at least 5, and even Kariya should get 5 carries. They've got to wear Utah State's defense down by running it down their throat early and often. If BYU is concerned about bringing Jake along too early: run the ball. Preferably not I-formation, double-tight end, show-how-tough-you-are type of stuff. Last year with Tonga, Unga, Pitta, George, BYU could power-run. This year, they don't have the FB or the TB to power through people. Go 3 and 4 wide, shotgun formation, and use all 3 backs in the running game, DiLuigi outside, Kariya inside, and let the Juice loose wherever he wants. Don't go under center until you get inside the 5-yard line. I know I'm dreaming there, but wouldn't it be nice.
As far as throwing the ball: if they throw a single fade pass then the O-Coordinator has got to go. Gary Anderson has taken all of the speed on the team and put it in the secondary. They utilize a lot of man coverage principles. BYU will not beat them deep on the outside. BYU must beat team speed with precision routes all over the field, short, medium, left, right, middle, mixed with an occasional deep post route, or maybe even a wheel route, where a slot receiver (Jacobson please!) is matched with a safety or a linebacker. No WR screens either. Utah State will press and man-up on BYU receivers. Gary Anderson has no respect (not in a negative way) for BYU's receivers. He will trust his DBs on BYU's slow, weak WRs. Until somebody steps up and makes a play, I'd do the exact same thing.
They need to run the ball to help Heaps be more effective. They need 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 4, or the threat of the run on downs when they pass on 1st and 10. Heaps needs to be around 60%, which will include the 5-6 drops he can expect from his WRs.
I think BYU can, and should, be successful against this weaker-than-anticipated Utah State defense. Some receiver must step up and help though. It was quite the contrast last week, watching the Bama-Arkansas game during timeouts of the BYU game: Mallett didn't always make perfect throws, but his WRs caught it anyway. Right now, even when Heaps makes the perfect throw, they don't always catch it. Regardless, BYU should push points across the board in every single quarter.
Utah State O vs. BYU D
Utah State is a better rushing team than passing, though they aren't great at either. They have shown the ability to move the ball down the field in chunks, but they rely mostly on big plays. This plays right into BYU's bend but don't break defensive strategy. They give up the short stuff and force teams to drive down the field on them. All it takes is one penalty, a missed block, an incompletion, etc. to put the opponent behind the chains. Utah State has shown an affinity for mistakes. They are 83rd in the country in penalties with over 60 yards a game, they have a QB with a 54% completion percentage, they give up 6.5 tackles for loss per game, and they average two turnovers a game. If BYU can limit the long pass by tackling efficiently in space, Utah State will probably struggle to march down the field consistently: they will probably make at least one of those mistakes in a 10-play, 80-yard drive.
Utah State has great balance on O. Not just with running and passing, but with spreading the ball around to lots of people. 5 WRs/TEs average 2 catches per game. 3 RBs are getting 4+ carries/game. Their QB, Diondre Borel is also averaging 12.5 rushes per game (only 2.5 are sacks), though he has been bottled up for the most part. They can come at you a lot of different ways with a lot of different guys.
BYU's D has been pretty porous through 3.5 games. The lone "bright" spot was the 2nd half of the Nevada game, but even then they gave up a 9-minute scoring drive. Did the defense turn a corner or did the coaches just make some good adjustments while Nevada made some poor ones? We will know Friday night: if they can't contain Utah State's O, and keep them at, or under, their season average 24 points, they may come away with their 4th straight loss, with their bowl eligibility seriously in jeopardy.
The crowd will certainly have a lot of BYU fans in it, but it will remain extremely hostile for BYU. How will Heaps respond? Will the D be able to keep the crowd out of it by turning Utah State into a boring nickel-and-dime type of offense? Bronco said this was not a make-or-break game. I agree that a win may not "make" it, but a loss certainly "breaks" it. Survive-or-break just doesn't have quite the same ring to it. Whatever you call it, at 1-4 with two games they cannot win left on the schedule (TCU is out of the realm, and, if BYU is 1-4, then they aren't good enough to beat Utah), just getting to a bowl game will be difficult.
I am confident that BYU will get at least 12 points in the game. I cannot say much more than that. Anae has been afraid in the red zone. They need to establish the middle of the field in the passing game, particularly once they cross the 50-yard line. If they do that: they'll go for 31 points and win the game. If they keep with the fade, power-run, screen-game in the red zone, 4 field goals is about all they can get, if they don't get the urge to run Kariya outside on 4th and 4 instead of taking the 3 points or throwing the rock.
Prediction
BYU's offense marches down the field. BYU finds a way to punch it into the end zone ON A SLANT of all things. Utah State manages a few big plays, but has no sustained drives. BYU 27, Utah State 17. BYU's D will need to make a stop late in the 4th quarter to seal it. My guess is Jordan Pendleton with a big tackle behind the line of scrimmage or Andrew Rich with a big hit, followed by a good play (on a bad pass) by Brian Logan.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Two More Thoughts for a Thursday Morning
Fight On!
When was the last time USC was 4-0, with 3 road wins, and ranked 18th in the country? They won at Hawaii, beat Virginia out of the ACC, won at Minnesota out of the Big Ten, and won a conference road game. 3 of the 4 were double-digit wins. I'm not saying they should be ranked higher, I'm just wondering how they are ranked below Iowa, whose resume contains zero road wins, zero impressive wins, and a loss: this is still USC, even if Kiffin is at the helm.
Big Ten Scheduling (Again)
The Big Ten is 20-2 against unranked non-BCS FBS opponents. They are 9-1 against FCS opponents. They are 7-4 against BCS conference opponents, including Notre Dame: 1-3 against ranked BCS conference opponents, and 6-1 against unranked BCS opponents. Those 6 wins are: Iowa State, Connecticut, Notre Dame (twice), Vanderbilt, and Arizona State. It's questionable that any of those teams will make bowl games, but it's pretty sure that none of them are going to win a conference title. The lone win against a ranked opponent was #2 Ohio State beating #16 Miami at home.
The conference's 3 best wins are Miami and Notre Dame twice, once scoring in the final minute of the game to win and once converting on a fake field goal in OT to win. The conference also sports double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Toledo, Northern Illinois, and FCS South Dakota.
Most conferences in America sport better wins, and a better collection of losses too. But most conferences in America don't know the recipe for getting 6 teams ranked like the Big Ten does: schedule patsies and just win, baby. Oh wait, the SEC has figured the recipe out too, just without completely watering-down the schedules: play great football, beat quality opponents on big stages (including bowl games), oh, and win the National Championship 4 years in a row.
When was the last time USC was 4-0, with 3 road wins, and ranked 18th in the country? They won at Hawaii, beat Virginia out of the ACC, won at Minnesota out of the Big Ten, and won a conference road game. 3 of the 4 were double-digit wins. I'm not saying they should be ranked higher, I'm just wondering how they are ranked below Iowa, whose resume contains zero road wins, zero impressive wins, and a loss: this is still USC, even if Kiffin is at the helm.
Big Ten Scheduling (Again)
The Big Ten is 20-2 against unranked non-BCS FBS opponents. They are 9-1 against FCS opponents. They are 7-4 against BCS conference opponents, including Notre Dame: 1-3 against ranked BCS conference opponents, and 6-1 against unranked BCS opponents. Those 6 wins are: Iowa State, Connecticut, Notre Dame (twice), Vanderbilt, and Arizona State. It's questionable that any of those teams will make bowl games, but it's pretty sure that none of them are going to win a conference title. The lone win against a ranked opponent was #2 Ohio State beating #16 Miami at home.
The conference's 3 best wins are Miami and Notre Dame twice, once scoring in the final minute of the game to win and once converting on a fake field goal in OT to win. The conference also sports double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Toledo, Northern Illinois, and FCS South Dakota.
Most conferences in America sport better wins, and a better collection of losses too. But most conferences in America don't know the recipe for getting 6 teams ranked like the Big Ten does: schedule patsies and just win, baby. Oh wait, the SEC has figured the recipe out too, just without completely watering-down the schedules: play great football, beat quality opponents on big stages (including bowl games), oh, and win the National Championship 4 years in a row.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, Week Five
Big XII
The team playing Nebraska in the final Big XII Championship Game will be decided this weekend. Texas and Oklahoma meet in the best rivalry game in college football. Every year, they play at a neutral site. The game is played during the Texas State Fair. A lot of the guys involved were high school teammates or rivals. Two great coaches. Two great programs. Texas may have been stunned at home last weekend by UCLA, but Oklahoma has almost been stunned at home by Utah State and Air Force, and on the road against Cincinnati. I know A&M, Tech, and OK State are improved, but the winner of this game essentially has a two-game lead in the division over the other. Texas winning this game would help out the little guys in their quest for a National Championship. For Boise's sake, Hook'Em Horns.
Big Ten
Finally, we get to see if Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, or Michigan State are for real. Maybe. Iowa and Penn State have each played one tough opponent and lost. Iowa blew out severely inferior competition besides that. Penn State needed a late TD to beat Temple at home.
Wisconsin and Michigan State have yet to be tested. Michigan State won't even leave the state of Michigan for a game until mid-October. Notre Dame is the only potential bowl team they've played so far, and they're 1-3. Wisconsin has at least played A road game, at UNLV. Their only decisive victory game against a bad FCS school.
Ohio State plays its first road game. Undefeated Northwestern (go Wildcats) takes its undefeated record on the road to the struggling Golden Gophers of Minnesota. Michigan's secondary gets tested against pass-happy Indiana.
At least Michigan State will be cooked within the next two weekends. I expect Iowa to follow shortly after them. K, so maybe I hope both of those schools meet that fate, instead of actually believing it. This thing might actually come down to Michigan-Ohio State again. Though Wisconsin will certainly want to stake its claim as well.
Pac 10
The Pac 10 team representing the conference in the BCS will be decided this weekend when Stanford travels to Autzen to take on Oregon. Not that Arizona couldn't go, but with USC unavailable to attend the Rose Bowl this season, I think the winner of this game has a serious leg-up on the competition, and remains in the hunt for a National Championship. Also, Arizona has to travel to both Stanford and Oregon later this season, with those games sandwiching a home game against USC. Not likely that the Wildcats represent.
SEC
If Florida finds a way to win at Alabama, they all but clinch the East division. They'll be 3-0 with 1-loss South Carolina as the only likely challenger, who goes to the Swamp in November (and who also has the 3 best teams from the West on the schedule in Bama and Arkansas, and already lost to Auburn).
Alabama isn't quite so lucky though. They still have to travel to South Carolina and LSU this season, then they get Auburn at season's end in the Iron Bowl. Plus, Auburn and LSU are both 2-0 in conference play. Auburn already beat their only "challenge" from the East in South Carolina and get both LSU and Arkansas at home. LSU still has to play at Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas.
ACC
Big game between NC State and Virginia Tech this weekend. Or at least as big as it gets in the ACC.
Big East
Hasn't played a meaningful game in a few years now. Connecticut can flex its muscles at home against Vanderbilt. But I wouldn't bet on it...
The team playing Nebraska in the final Big XII Championship Game will be decided this weekend. Texas and Oklahoma meet in the best rivalry game in college football. Every year, they play at a neutral site. The game is played during the Texas State Fair. A lot of the guys involved were high school teammates or rivals. Two great coaches. Two great programs. Texas may have been stunned at home last weekend by UCLA, but Oklahoma has almost been stunned at home by Utah State and Air Force, and on the road against Cincinnati. I know A&M, Tech, and OK State are improved, but the winner of this game essentially has a two-game lead in the division over the other. Texas winning this game would help out the little guys in their quest for a National Championship. For Boise's sake, Hook'Em Horns.
Big Ten
Finally, we get to see if Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, or Michigan State are for real. Maybe. Iowa and Penn State have each played one tough opponent and lost. Iowa blew out severely inferior competition besides that. Penn State needed a late TD to beat Temple at home.
Wisconsin and Michigan State have yet to be tested. Michigan State won't even leave the state of Michigan for a game until mid-October. Notre Dame is the only potential bowl team they've played so far, and they're 1-3. Wisconsin has at least played A road game, at UNLV. Their only decisive victory game against a bad FCS school.
Ohio State plays its first road game. Undefeated Northwestern (go Wildcats) takes its undefeated record on the road to the struggling Golden Gophers of Minnesota. Michigan's secondary gets tested against pass-happy Indiana.
At least Michigan State will be cooked within the next two weekends. I expect Iowa to follow shortly after them. K, so maybe I hope both of those schools meet that fate, instead of actually believing it. This thing might actually come down to Michigan-Ohio State again. Though Wisconsin will certainly want to stake its claim as well.
Pac 10
The Pac 10 team representing the conference in the BCS will be decided this weekend when Stanford travels to Autzen to take on Oregon. Not that Arizona couldn't go, but with USC unavailable to attend the Rose Bowl this season, I think the winner of this game has a serious leg-up on the competition, and remains in the hunt for a National Championship. Also, Arizona has to travel to both Stanford and Oregon later this season, with those games sandwiching a home game against USC. Not likely that the Wildcats represent.
SEC
If Florida finds a way to win at Alabama, they all but clinch the East division. They'll be 3-0 with 1-loss South Carolina as the only likely challenger, who goes to the Swamp in November (and who also has the 3 best teams from the West on the schedule in Bama and Arkansas, and already lost to Auburn).
Alabama isn't quite so lucky though. They still have to travel to South Carolina and LSU this season, then they get Auburn at season's end in the Iron Bowl. Plus, Auburn and LSU are both 2-0 in conference play. Auburn already beat their only "challenge" from the East in South Carolina and get both LSU and Arkansas at home. LSU still has to play at Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas.
ACC
Big game between NC State and Virginia Tech this weekend. Or at least as big as it gets in the ACC.
Big East
Hasn't played a meaningful game in a few years now. Connecticut can flex its muscles at home against Vanderbilt. But I wouldn't bet on it...
Wednesday Waffle, Week Five
Starting NT Romney Fuga was blocked dangerously and illegally (and dirtily, unless you are one of 20,000 UNR fans, 25,000 on a good day) against Nevada last weekend. His knee requires surgery and he is out for the year. He was the only DL in the rotation above 300 pounds. There are two other freshmen, 300-pound DL.
How do you change the rotation? My thought is to move Eathyn Manumaleuna back to the middle. We have enough freshmen playing right now. Manumaleuna is playing in the 280's right now. He's played the position before. He is best "big" linemen BYU has on defense right now.
The D-Line is the thinnest spot on the defense. One more injury and BYU will have to go to more and more freshmen. For now, play Santa Claus in the middle. He is the best chance of holding down that middle. Besides, whoever you plug in at DE for Manumaleuna has Jordan Pendleton behind him to help ease him into the additional playing time.
And, after writing last week, I am happy to report that I still like Corby Eason better than Brian Logan or Brandon Bradley, and we have a much larger sample size this week. Logan, again, made a lot of nice tackles AFTER the catch, but Eason actually covered guys. If Logan could do the same, it'd help the D-Line get pressure and help the entire defense. It's tough to hit the QB when he has an open option right from the get-go.
How do you change the rotation? My thought is to move Eathyn Manumaleuna back to the middle. We have enough freshmen playing right now. Manumaleuna is playing in the 280's right now. He's played the position before. He is best "big" linemen BYU has on defense right now.
The D-Line is the thinnest spot on the defense. One more injury and BYU will have to go to more and more freshmen. For now, play Santa Claus in the middle. He is the best chance of holding down that middle. Besides, whoever you plug in at DE for Manumaleuna has Jordan Pendleton behind him to help ease him into the additional playing time.
And, after writing last week, I am happy to report that I still like Corby Eason better than Brian Logan or Brandon Bradley, and we have a much larger sample size this week. Logan, again, made a lot of nice tackles AFTER the catch, but Eason actually covered guys. If Logan could do the same, it'd help the D-Line get pressure and help the entire defense. It's tough to hit the QB when he has an open option right from the get-go.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Predictions Recap
Well, it's time to hold myself accountable. How did I pick this weekend?
Let's throw BYU out. I'm always wrong about BYU.
I said: TCU 38, SMU 27
Actual: TCU 41, SMU 24
Note: SMU could have kicked a field goal on 4th down on the last play of the game, but went for it.
I said: Air Force 38, Wyoming 10
Actual: Air Force 20, Wyoming 14
Note: I guess I though it was harder to stop this Air Force option attack after seeing BYU's feable attempts to do it. Pretty good on Wyoming's score though...
I said: Idaho 31, CSU 13
Actual: CSU 36, Idaho 34
Note: this was my first MWC non-BYU miss of the season. I was close on Idaho's score at least...
I said: SDSU 35, Utah State 24
Actual: SDSU 41, Utah State 7
Note: Does SDSU have a defense, or is Utah State's offense that bad?
I said: Utah 45, San Jose State 9
Actual: Utah 56, San Jose State 3
Note: A lot to a little. Isn't that what I said?
I said: New Mexico 35, UNLV 31
Actual: UNLV 45, New Mexico 10
Note: I prefaced my pick with "I know I'm going to miss this one." What do you expect? When two of the worst teams in FBS square off, can anyone really tell what's going to happen?
With my two misses this week, I'm 25-2 on the season (not counting my 1-3 on BYU games). I'll try to tighten up my scores up a bit this week, so you guys can take my predictions to Vegas and make a buck, or something. Or tell your friends that might do such things how awesome I am at it...
Let's throw BYU out. I'm always wrong about BYU.
I said: TCU 38, SMU 27
Actual: TCU 41, SMU 24
Note: SMU could have kicked a field goal on 4th down on the last play of the game, but went for it.
I said: Air Force 38, Wyoming 10
Actual: Air Force 20, Wyoming 14
Note: I guess I though it was harder to stop this Air Force option attack after seeing BYU's feable attempts to do it. Pretty good on Wyoming's score though...
I said: Idaho 31, CSU 13
Actual: CSU 36, Idaho 34
Note: this was my first MWC non-BYU miss of the season. I was close on Idaho's score at least...
I said: SDSU 35, Utah State 24
Actual: SDSU 41, Utah State 7
Note: Does SDSU have a defense, or is Utah State's offense that bad?
I said: Utah 45, San Jose State 9
Actual: Utah 56, San Jose State 3
Note: A lot to a little. Isn't that what I said?
I said: New Mexico 35, UNLV 31
Actual: UNLV 45, New Mexico 10
Note: I prefaced my pick with "I know I'm going to miss this one." What do you expect? When two of the worst teams in FBS square off, can anyone really tell what's going to happen?
With my two misses this week, I'm 25-2 on the season (not counting my 1-3 on BYU games). I'll try to tighten up my scores up a bit this week, so you guys can take my predictions to Vegas and make a buck, or something. Or tell your friends that might do such things how awesome I am at it...
Monday, September 27, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, Week 5
Boise State vs. TCU
It wasn't a great weekend for TCU. They got a win against SMU, though the commentators belittled it a lot, showing complete disrespect for a much improved SMU team. Nevada beat BYU, Air Force struggled against Wyoming, New Mexico continued to look worse and worse, and Boise State beat Oregon State (worse than TCU beat them), now the strength of schedule argument gets worse for TCU and less bad for Boise State. In good news: Utah pummeled San Jose State, one of Boise State's opponents. But everybody KNOWS the bottom of the WAC is horrendous. Combine the events of the weekend with Boise State's Fiesta Bowl win over TCU last year, and TCU's chances at passing Boise State without a Boise State loss just got a lot harder.
TCU also got bit by the injury bug. Starting Safety Alex Ibiloye hurt his knee in the waning minutes of the game on Friday night, though the extent of the injury has not been disclosed. The biggest problem I have with this: it's Coach Patterson's fault. With 6 minutes left and a 3-score lead he runs his first team offense out there, which is OK, I guess. With 3 minutes left that first string O goes for it on 4th down, run up the score much? Then, with 3 minutes left and a 3-score lead, he marches his starting defensive unit out there. You have a depth chart exactly for that time. This isn't about style points or anything of that nature. Coach Patterson has been doing this same thing for years now when he isn't up by 30+ points in the fourth quarter. He's gotten away without many serious injuries to this point. I hope the kid is OK, but Coach Patterson should stop playing with fire with his kids.
Strength of Schedule For Ranked Teams
Utah's Strength of Schedule right now is one the easiest for ranked teams (6th easiest): Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa are the only ones that are worse. Anybody notice anything in common among those 5 teams? They will all be in the Big Ten-Don't-Call-Me-Twelve next season, and 4 of them are already there this season...easy to get 5 teams ranked for your conference WHEN YOU DON'T PLAY ANYBODY! Then when they beat each other later in the season, they count as quality wins because they beat "ranked" teams. The Big Ten has figured it out. 7 home games. 4 easy non-conference wins. Get ranked. Look better. Send your champion to the National Championship. Get blown out because it's your first truly difficult game of the season. People talk about how stacked the Big Ten is this year: I talk about how amazing it is they aren't all undefeated, but Minnesota lost to an FCS and a MAC team this season. Those were supposed to be two easy home wins.
BYU's Opponents
The 3 opponents that BYU has lost to are all ranked in the top 30 in every poll, human or computer. The one opponent that they beat is not. With wins this weekend (all are big favorites), all three could easily jump into the top 25 in the human polls. Currently, BYU's SOS ranks in the top 5 in the country. Given that BYU is not a top 5 team, it's no wonder that they are 1-3. The good news is that their next two opponents are nowhere near top 30 teams. Utah State is 1-3 against a decent schedule. San Diego State is 3-1 against the second-easiest schedule in FBS: their schedule is so easy that even at 3-1, they trail 1-3 BYU in ALL computer rankings. After those two easier games, BYU has another top 25 team on the schedule (i.e. a loss) in TCU, but they follow that with 4 sub-100 teams (i.e. four wins), before their next loss at Utah. That would probably be enough to get them to the prestigious Poinsettia Bowl, where Utah has played two of the last 3 years.
Crossing the 50
This season, BYU's offense has looked pretty bad. Particularly glaring from the Nevada game was BYU's 5 possessions in the second half. In all 5, BYU crossed into Nevada territory. However, in 5 trips across the 50, BYU only managed one field goal. In all, BYU had 9 possessions in Nevada territory, but managed to score in only 3 of them, for a total of 13 points. Here is how BYU's 2010 offense compares with last season's, with regards to crossing mid-field.
In 2009, BYU averaged 7 possessions per game across the 50 (90 possessions in 13 games).
In 2010, BYU averages 6 possessions (24 possessions in 4 games).
In 2009, BYU scored on 69 of 90 possessions (77%).
In 2010, BYU scored on 11 of 24 possessions (46%).
In 2009, BYU turned the ball over 7 times (8%).
In 2010, BYU turned the ball over 1 time (4%).
There are a few differences in BYU's offense this year. They play it safer, and have turned the ball over less, as a result. However, with fewer risks has also come fewer points. If they take more risks and turn the ball over twice as much as they have been, it won't be any worse than last season! If it leads to more points, it's a risk they have to take. Scoring 11 times in 4 games will not win many games, particularly when 5 of those 11 are field goals.
Rip the fade from the playbook. I realize it's the safest throw to make in the red zone, but it also has the smallest chance of success. 46% won't get the job done. They are crossing the 50 enough. They aren't crossing the goalline enough.
It wasn't a great weekend for TCU. They got a win against SMU, though the commentators belittled it a lot, showing complete disrespect for a much improved SMU team. Nevada beat BYU, Air Force struggled against Wyoming, New Mexico continued to look worse and worse, and Boise State beat Oregon State (worse than TCU beat them), now the strength of schedule argument gets worse for TCU and less bad for Boise State. In good news: Utah pummeled San Jose State, one of Boise State's opponents. But everybody KNOWS the bottom of the WAC is horrendous. Combine the events of the weekend with Boise State's Fiesta Bowl win over TCU last year, and TCU's chances at passing Boise State without a Boise State loss just got a lot harder.
TCU also got bit by the injury bug. Starting Safety Alex Ibiloye hurt his knee in the waning minutes of the game on Friday night, though the extent of the injury has not been disclosed. The biggest problem I have with this: it's Coach Patterson's fault. With 6 minutes left and a 3-score lead he runs his first team offense out there, which is OK, I guess. With 3 minutes left that first string O goes for it on 4th down, run up the score much? Then, with 3 minutes left and a 3-score lead, he marches his starting defensive unit out there. You have a depth chart exactly for that time. This isn't about style points or anything of that nature. Coach Patterson has been doing this same thing for years now when he isn't up by 30+ points in the fourth quarter. He's gotten away without many serious injuries to this point. I hope the kid is OK, but Coach Patterson should stop playing with fire with his kids.
Strength of Schedule For Ranked Teams
Utah's Strength of Schedule right now is one the easiest for ranked teams (6th easiest): Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa are the only ones that are worse. Anybody notice anything in common among those 5 teams? They will all be in the Big Ten-Don't-Call-Me-Twelve next season, and 4 of them are already there this season...easy to get 5 teams ranked for your conference WHEN YOU DON'T PLAY ANYBODY! Then when they beat each other later in the season, they count as quality wins because they beat "ranked" teams. The Big Ten has figured it out. 7 home games. 4 easy non-conference wins. Get ranked. Look better. Send your champion to the National Championship. Get blown out because it's your first truly difficult game of the season. People talk about how stacked the Big Ten is this year: I talk about how amazing it is they aren't all undefeated, but Minnesota lost to an FCS and a MAC team this season. Those were supposed to be two easy home wins.
BYU's Opponents
The 3 opponents that BYU has lost to are all ranked in the top 30 in every poll, human or computer. The one opponent that they beat is not. With wins this weekend (all are big favorites), all three could easily jump into the top 25 in the human polls. Currently, BYU's SOS ranks in the top 5 in the country. Given that BYU is not a top 5 team, it's no wonder that they are 1-3. The good news is that their next two opponents are nowhere near top 30 teams. Utah State is 1-3 against a decent schedule. San Diego State is 3-1 against the second-easiest schedule in FBS: their schedule is so easy that even at 3-1, they trail 1-3 BYU in ALL computer rankings. After those two easier games, BYU has another top 25 team on the schedule (i.e. a loss) in TCU, but they follow that with 4 sub-100 teams (i.e. four wins), before their next loss at Utah. That would probably be enough to get them to the prestigious Poinsettia Bowl, where Utah has played two of the last 3 years.
Crossing the 50
This season, BYU's offense has looked pretty bad. Particularly glaring from the Nevada game was BYU's 5 possessions in the second half. In all 5, BYU crossed into Nevada territory. However, in 5 trips across the 50, BYU only managed one field goal. In all, BYU had 9 possessions in Nevada territory, but managed to score in only 3 of them, for a total of 13 points. Here is how BYU's 2010 offense compares with last season's, with regards to crossing mid-field.
In 2009, BYU averaged 7 possessions per game across the 50 (90 possessions in 13 games).
In 2010, BYU averages 6 possessions (24 possessions in 4 games).
In 2009, BYU scored on 69 of 90 possessions (77%).
In 2010, BYU scored on 11 of 24 possessions (46%).
In 2009, BYU turned the ball over 7 times (8%).
In 2010, BYU turned the ball over 1 time (4%).
There are a few differences in BYU's offense this year. They play it safer, and have turned the ball over less, as a result. However, with fewer risks has also come fewer points. If they take more risks and turn the ball over twice as much as they have been, it won't be any worse than last season! If it leads to more points, it's a risk they have to take. Scoring 11 times in 4 games will not win many games, particularly when 5 of those 11 are field goals.
Rip the fade from the playbook. I realize it's the safest throw to make in the red zone, but it also has the smallest chance of success. 46% won't get the job done. They are crossing the 50 enough. They aren't crossing the goalline enough.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Effort Was There
This BYU loss I place on the feet of the offensive coaching staff. The defense held a Nevada offense that is going to average 40+ points/game, 550 yards/game to 27 points and 435 yards. Kaepernick accounted for only 280 total yards, less than 100 rushing yards, less than 5 yards/carry, "only" two TDs, "only" 64% completion percentage, his first pick of the season, and had nearly 60 yards less than his previous "worst" of the season. The defense did all it could, especially with all of the cheap shots and dirty plays Nevada's O-Line was getting away with (yes, I'm looking at you #62). Nevada had about 130 yards in the second half was all, and only 3 points. It would have been nice to see a few more tackles in the backfield, better stops on first down, etc. But all in all, it wasn't the defense that lost the game.
What lost the game was continued poor play-calling by Robert Anae. In an effort to "protect" Jake Heaps from failure, he is making it impossible for him to succeed. As soon as BYU got within 30 yards of the end zone, the only pass play they seemed to have in the playbook was the fade. One, Heaps hasn't looked very good throwing it. Two, even if he could throw it perfectly, there's not a receiver that could make the catch. On 4th down and 4 to go, needing to convert to stay in the game, they run a stretch play to the short side of the field with their worst outside runner in the backfield, Brian Kariya. Spencer Hafoka dropped a couple of passes, as did Ashworth. Jacobson looked good in the game. Cody Hoffman made some big catches. Marcus Matthews was the lone TE with a catch. Take away the 8 or 9 fades (no joke, they tried at least that many, with ZERO completions), and the 4 or 5 drops and Heaps probably goes 30 for 40 with 300 yards.
They also don't seem to even target the TEs. They have dropped a couple of passes this season, it's true. But that's a good GAME for Ashworth, Hafoka, et al. Give them a chance to succeed. Maybe try throwing a crossing route to them in the red zone instead of the fade to a WR that can't get separation, jump high, or catch the ball if he managed to get separation and jump high.
There are some puzzling personnel decisions as well. Josh "The Juice" Quezada comes into the game and rushes 3 times for 15 yards. Has 2 catches for 12 yards. Picks up the blitz nicely. Knocked a couple of guys down, dragged a few others in his limited time. Why is he not in the game more?
Defensively, my biggest criticism is what I refer to as "the cushion." BYU's CBs are 10 yards off the ball every play. Time after time after time Nevada would throw an out, or a hitch 7 yards down the field. Every time, our DBs played it perfectly AFTER THE SNAP. If they were 3 yards closer BEFORE THE SNAP, a lot more of those would be incomplete, maybe one or two would even be intercepted. BYU fans should have known this defense was in trouble when the secondary was referred to as the strength of the defense in the offseason. They play pretty well, but imagine how good they might be if they were 7 yards off the line of scrimmage instead of 10?
And realistically, how much of this was the scheduling? If BYU had Utah's schedule to start the season (1-2 Pittsburgh, 0-3 UNLV, at 0-3 New Mexico-playing UNLV tonight so one will be 1-3, the other 0-4-, 1-3 San Jose State), they'd be sitting 4-0 with 3 blowout wins and a heap of confidence. As it is, they have played 4 teams that will be playing in bowl games, two of which have a legitimate chance to win 10 games, and sit at 1-3. They play Friday Night in a rivalry game at 1-3 Utah State, in two weeks they get a 3-1 San Diego State team that has a bye week to get ready, then get 4-0 4th ranked TCU in Fort Worth. The schedule could not have laid out any worse for a rebuilding BYU. It certainly exposed just how rebuilding this season is. They'll just need to find a way to get some confidence: my first suggestion would be to put some trust in Jake Heaps in the red zone, my second is to not run the ball on 4th and 4. It also might help prepare them for the gauntlet they'll have to run the first two weeks next September: at Oregon State and at Texas. It is frustrating to watch the kids putting forth the effort, but the coaches making it impossible for there to be fruits.
What lost the game was continued poor play-calling by Robert Anae. In an effort to "protect" Jake Heaps from failure, he is making it impossible for him to succeed. As soon as BYU got within 30 yards of the end zone, the only pass play they seemed to have in the playbook was the fade. One, Heaps hasn't looked very good throwing it. Two, even if he could throw it perfectly, there's not a receiver that could make the catch. On 4th down and 4 to go, needing to convert to stay in the game, they run a stretch play to the short side of the field with their worst outside runner in the backfield, Brian Kariya. Spencer Hafoka dropped a couple of passes, as did Ashworth. Jacobson looked good in the game. Cody Hoffman made some big catches. Marcus Matthews was the lone TE with a catch. Take away the 8 or 9 fades (no joke, they tried at least that many, with ZERO completions), and the 4 or 5 drops and Heaps probably goes 30 for 40 with 300 yards.
They also don't seem to even target the TEs. They have dropped a couple of passes this season, it's true. But that's a good GAME for Ashworth, Hafoka, et al. Give them a chance to succeed. Maybe try throwing a crossing route to them in the red zone instead of the fade to a WR that can't get separation, jump high, or catch the ball if he managed to get separation and jump high.
There are some puzzling personnel decisions as well. Josh "The Juice" Quezada comes into the game and rushes 3 times for 15 yards. Has 2 catches for 12 yards. Picks up the blitz nicely. Knocked a couple of guys down, dragged a few others in his limited time. Why is he not in the game more?
Defensively, my biggest criticism is what I refer to as "the cushion." BYU's CBs are 10 yards off the ball every play. Time after time after time Nevada would throw an out, or a hitch 7 yards down the field. Every time, our DBs played it perfectly AFTER THE SNAP. If they were 3 yards closer BEFORE THE SNAP, a lot more of those would be incomplete, maybe one or two would even be intercepted. BYU fans should have known this defense was in trouble when the secondary was referred to as the strength of the defense in the offseason. They play pretty well, but imagine how good they might be if they were 7 yards off the line of scrimmage instead of 10?
And realistically, how much of this was the scheduling? If BYU had Utah's schedule to start the season (1-2 Pittsburgh, 0-3 UNLV, at 0-3 New Mexico-playing UNLV tonight so one will be 1-3, the other 0-4-, 1-3 San Jose State), they'd be sitting 4-0 with 3 blowout wins and a heap of confidence. As it is, they have played 4 teams that will be playing in bowl games, two of which have a legitimate chance to win 10 games, and sit at 1-3. They play Friday Night in a rivalry game at 1-3 Utah State, in two weeks they get a 3-1 San Diego State team that has a bye week to get ready, then get 4-0 4th ranked TCU in Fort Worth. The schedule could not have laid out any worse for a rebuilding BYU. It certainly exposed just how rebuilding this season is. They'll just need to find a way to get some confidence: my first suggestion would be to put some trust in Jake Heaps in the red zone, my second is to not run the ball on 4th and 4. It also might help prepare them for the gauntlet they'll have to run the first two weeks next September: at Oregon State and at Texas. It is frustrating to watch the kids putting forth the effort, but the coaches making it impossible for there to be fruits.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Nevada-BYU preview
BYU's Offense vs. Nevada's Defense
With the QB situation decided, we should see a more traditional BYU pass-first offense. Although, the running game has been the only thing BYU has done decently well this season. With Heaps' ability to throw the deep ball, it should help open up the running game a bit more even. Given his youth and inexperience, Nevada will probably blitz him a little more, which could also help open up the running game.
The offense still needs a third down threat, but the good news is they are facing one of the worst 3rd-down defenses in the country (besides their own...). It's also a pretty bad defense in general. It's weakness on weakness. While typically, I don't like a freshman QB in third down situations, I think BYU will be in a third and short more than it has been the past two weeks which opens up the playbook.
I anticipate seeing Jacobson, Kariya, and at least one TE having big games against Nevada. Running Kariya out of the shotgun formation could be a big opportunity for BYU against the smaller front 7 of Nevada. Spread out a smaller defense and then run over them. BYU will need that to open up the passing game and take some pressure off of Heaps. It also couldn't hurt to send Jacobson deep (and outside) against this defense.
Nevada's defense is its weakness, BYU will NEED to get their offense going to win this game.
BYU's Defense vs. Nevada's Offense
Opponents of BYU have gashed them for rushing yardage all over the place. They "held" Washington to 128 yards, but they averaged over 4 yards per carry. Take out the bad punt snap though, and it was 167 yards and 5.5 yards/carry. Air Force ran the option all day long over them. Florida State busted an 83-yard run against them, amongst some other big rushes. BYU's defense has given up 7 RUSHING plays over 20 yards in 3 games, which is not good.
Nevada runs a lot of option looks, though not the traditional triple option. I would anticipate the defense will play closer attention this week than they obviously did in preparation for Air Force. It hasn't been the mobility of the QBs that has killed them, it's been the RBs. If they can continue that and shutdown Kaepernick running the ball, it will certainly slow down Nevada's offense. It's his running ability that opens up RB Vai Taua and the passing game, so if they can contain Kapernick, they can contain the 50-point scoring Nevada offense. If they can't, watch out.
Kaepernick has been throwing the ball well too. He has spread the ball around quite a bit, but loves his 6'5" TE Virgil Green and 6'2" WR Rishard Matthews. When Nevada needed a play against Cal, they looked to Rishard Matthews through the air. However, Tray Session has been the go-to guy inside the 20. BYU's secondary has looked OK in coverage, but the LBs will need to tighten it up, especially having to play the option and the option-fake. That's where TE Virgil Green gets a lot of his work done is in the play-action, which holds the LBs and he releases right behind them.
There's a lot of weapons to deal with for BYU's porous defense. They will need a Poppinga-like effort this week to get things done.
Special Teams:
Nevada hasn't given up a punt return yet: a couple of fair catches, a couple out-of-bounds, and a couple of touchbacks in 6 punts. They are 88th in the country in kickoff return defense, but their special teams are probably so exhausted from sprinting down the field 10 times a game...
BYU continues to lead the country in kickoff return defense. We all know the punting situation there: it either goes 50 yards with no return or 2 yards with no return.
As far as returns go, BYU has pretty much exclusively had O'Neill Chambers returning kicks. So who knows what we will see from them this week. Nevada is averaging 11 yards/punt return and 25/kickoff return, a weakness of BYU. Given how crucial field position could be to this game, BYU will need to step up, because Nevada has an edge in this department, and has been more consistent too.
Overview:
Simply put, BYU has to have this game. They probably recognize that and will have prepared, and will play, with an increased sense of urgency. There is no longer a QB controversy, which will help the offense. Anything that helps the offense helps the defense. But there is certainly a long way to go. Nevada's weak defense could be just what BYU needs this week after facing a stingy Air Force team and a big, fast, athletic Florida State defense.
This is one of those games that Nevada should win. But Vegas puts the spread at only 4, so they must know something the average outsider doesn't.
I believe that this game will, in fact, be the turning point for BYU. They right the ship. Nevada put up 52 on Cal last weekend, but BYU has one advantage over Cal: they are taking Nevada seriously.
The defense makes stops. The offense converts on third down. Stephenson pins Nevada deep. Whoever steps in for Chambers on kick returns takes advantage of his opportunity. Everything goes well for BYU.
OK, so I'm not THAT optimistic, but I do believe they make crucial plays in crucial situations, enough to win this football game and save their season. Heaps is now THE guy, and that will help the whole team out. The defense must follow suit and show some pride in pushing Nevada's offense back, or at least making them earn it. Special teams has got to start controlling the field position again, and be consistent in doing so. BYU 34, Nevada 24.
With the QB situation decided, we should see a more traditional BYU pass-first offense. Although, the running game has been the only thing BYU has done decently well this season. With Heaps' ability to throw the deep ball, it should help open up the running game a bit more even. Given his youth and inexperience, Nevada will probably blitz him a little more, which could also help open up the running game.
The offense still needs a third down threat, but the good news is they are facing one of the worst 3rd-down defenses in the country (besides their own...). It's also a pretty bad defense in general. It's weakness on weakness. While typically, I don't like a freshman QB in third down situations, I think BYU will be in a third and short more than it has been the past two weeks which opens up the playbook.
I anticipate seeing Jacobson, Kariya, and at least one TE having big games against Nevada. Running Kariya out of the shotgun formation could be a big opportunity for BYU against the smaller front 7 of Nevada. Spread out a smaller defense and then run over them. BYU will need that to open up the passing game and take some pressure off of Heaps. It also couldn't hurt to send Jacobson deep (and outside) against this defense.
Nevada's defense is its weakness, BYU will NEED to get their offense going to win this game.
BYU's Defense vs. Nevada's Offense
Opponents of BYU have gashed them for rushing yardage all over the place. They "held" Washington to 128 yards, but they averaged over 4 yards per carry. Take out the bad punt snap though, and it was 167 yards and 5.5 yards/carry. Air Force ran the option all day long over them. Florida State busted an 83-yard run against them, amongst some other big rushes. BYU's defense has given up 7 RUSHING plays over 20 yards in 3 games, which is not good.
Nevada runs a lot of option looks, though not the traditional triple option. I would anticipate the defense will play closer attention this week than they obviously did in preparation for Air Force. It hasn't been the mobility of the QBs that has killed them, it's been the RBs. If they can continue that and shutdown Kaepernick running the ball, it will certainly slow down Nevada's offense. It's his running ability that opens up RB Vai Taua and the passing game, so if they can contain Kapernick, they can contain the 50-point scoring Nevada offense. If they can't, watch out.
Kaepernick has been throwing the ball well too. He has spread the ball around quite a bit, but loves his 6'5" TE Virgil Green and 6'2" WR Rishard Matthews. When Nevada needed a play against Cal, they looked to Rishard Matthews through the air. However, Tray Session has been the go-to guy inside the 20. BYU's secondary has looked OK in coverage, but the LBs will need to tighten it up, especially having to play the option and the option-fake. That's where TE Virgil Green gets a lot of his work done is in the play-action, which holds the LBs and he releases right behind them.
There's a lot of weapons to deal with for BYU's porous defense. They will need a Poppinga-like effort this week to get things done.
Special Teams:
Nevada hasn't given up a punt return yet: a couple of fair catches, a couple out-of-bounds, and a couple of touchbacks in 6 punts. They are 88th in the country in kickoff return defense, but their special teams are probably so exhausted from sprinting down the field 10 times a game...
BYU continues to lead the country in kickoff return defense. We all know the punting situation there: it either goes 50 yards with no return or 2 yards with no return.
As far as returns go, BYU has pretty much exclusively had O'Neill Chambers returning kicks. So who knows what we will see from them this week. Nevada is averaging 11 yards/punt return and 25/kickoff return, a weakness of BYU. Given how crucial field position could be to this game, BYU will need to step up, because Nevada has an edge in this department, and has been more consistent too.
Overview:
Simply put, BYU has to have this game. They probably recognize that and will have prepared, and will play, with an increased sense of urgency. There is no longer a QB controversy, which will help the offense. Anything that helps the offense helps the defense. But there is certainly a long way to go. Nevada's weak defense could be just what BYU needs this week after facing a stingy Air Force team and a big, fast, athletic Florida State defense.
This is one of those games that Nevada should win. But Vegas puts the spread at only 4, so they must know something the average outsider doesn't.
I believe that this game will, in fact, be the turning point for BYU. They right the ship. Nevada put up 52 on Cal last weekend, but BYU has one advantage over Cal: they are taking Nevada seriously.
The defense makes stops. The offense converts on third down. Stephenson pins Nevada deep. Whoever steps in for Chambers on kick returns takes advantage of his opportunity. Everything goes well for BYU.
OK, so I'm not THAT optimistic, but I do believe they make crucial plays in crucial situations, enough to win this football game and save their season. Heaps is now THE guy, and that will help the whole team out. The defense must follow suit and show some pride in pushing Nevada's offense back, or at least making them earn it. Special teams has got to start controlling the field position again, and be consistent in doing so. BYU 34, Nevada 24.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Chambers Suspension
If you haven't heard by now, starting WR, PR, and KR O'Neill Chambers has been suspended for the next two weeks. He will miss both games and all practices in the meantime.
The impact:
Someone quicker, but less experienced will return kicks. I think this will be a long-term gain for the program. Chambers may be fast, but he isn't quick enough to ever get to top speed. I think the main candidates will be Jacobson or Falslev. My hope is they plug Jacobson in. It's a "cheap" way to get him more touches.
There will be more throws for other receivers, i.e. Jacobson. He only had 5 catches on the season, but he'd probably been targeted a dozen times. Perhaps this will open up other guys for the deep ball that might actually get some separation. They may not be as big as him, but if they're two yards behind the defense, they don't need to be big.
Given that he had been moved to the TE position for passing situations, it will open up more reps for TEs in practice, and in games. I think BYU really hamstringed themselves at the TE position, as they did with the QBs and MLBs. They were trying to play too many guys, not making personnel decisions as they have done EVERY other season under Bronco. Nobody was getting enough reps in practice, or enough game experience. Enter Chambers and there are even fewer reps for too many TEs. I hope they take this opportunity to tighten up the TE rotation, give 2 or 3 guys all of the reps, and move forward with the position. They should be able to redshirt Austin Holt still. Move one TE to another position, OLB, or maybe even WR. Cut it down to 3 freshman TEs. There is no reason to have 5 TEs all in the same class.
In answer to Shane's comment: no, I'm not sad that Chambers is out the next two games. It will help get the coaches/QBs out of this mindblock that they have that Chambers will lead this receiving corps and spark the return game. He has never really been a game player. He must be amazing in practice, because I have never seen much of anything from him on the field, with two or three exceptions in 2.25 years.
In BYU scheduling news, if you missed it: BYU and West Virginia will play in 2016, at 91,000-seat FedEx Field. This is the first ever meeting of the two schools. Still no word on the final 3 (or 4) games for next season. A Utah game is supposedly still in the works. Too many conference schedules are up in the air right now: the MWC might be 8 (7 conference games), might be 10 (probably 9 conference games). The Big Ten may have 8 or 9 conference games. The WAC may or may not even exist. I think by the end of October we'll hear about at least two more games. I imagine they will probably have to add an FCS opponent in 2011. Still no word on if they will try to play 13 or not. That would be my first question for Tom Holmoe if I had a chance to talk with him.
The impact:
Someone quicker, but less experienced will return kicks. I think this will be a long-term gain for the program. Chambers may be fast, but he isn't quick enough to ever get to top speed. I think the main candidates will be Jacobson or Falslev. My hope is they plug Jacobson in. It's a "cheap" way to get him more touches.
There will be more throws for other receivers, i.e. Jacobson. He only had 5 catches on the season, but he'd probably been targeted a dozen times. Perhaps this will open up other guys for the deep ball that might actually get some separation. They may not be as big as him, but if they're two yards behind the defense, they don't need to be big.
Given that he had been moved to the TE position for passing situations, it will open up more reps for TEs in practice, and in games. I think BYU really hamstringed themselves at the TE position, as they did with the QBs and MLBs. They were trying to play too many guys, not making personnel decisions as they have done EVERY other season under Bronco. Nobody was getting enough reps in practice, or enough game experience. Enter Chambers and there are even fewer reps for too many TEs. I hope they take this opportunity to tighten up the TE rotation, give 2 or 3 guys all of the reps, and move forward with the position. They should be able to redshirt Austin Holt still. Move one TE to another position, OLB, or maybe even WR. Cut it down to 3 freshman TEs. There is no reason to have 5 TEs all in the same class.
In answer to Shane's comment: no, I'm not sad that Chambers is out the next two games. It will help get the coaches/QBs out of this mindblock that they have that Chambers will lead this receiving corps and spark the return game. He has never really been a game player. He must be amazing in practice, because I have never seen much of anything from him on the field, with two or three exceptions in 2.25 years.
In BYU scheduling news, if you missed it: BYU and West Virginia will play in 2016, at 91,000-seat FedEx Field. This is the first ever meeting of the two schools. Still no word on the final 3 (or 4) games for next season. A Utah game is supposedly still in the works. Too many conference schedules are up in the air right now: the MWC might be 8 (7 conference games), might be 10 (probably 9 conference games). The Big Ten may have 8 or 9 conference games. The WAC may or may not even exist. I think by the end of October we'll hear about at least two more games. I imagine they will probably have to add an FCS opponent in 2011. Still no word on if they will try to play 13 or not. That would be my first question for Tom Holmoe if I had a chance to talk with him.
MWC Predictions, Week Four
TCU @ SMU: this Friday night game could be tricky for TCU. This is the most wide open defense they will face all season. It's on the road. It's a rivalry game. On a Friday night. National audience. Good opponent. I really truly believe that TCU is an amazing team, especially when they stay committed to their dynamic rushing attack (which they got away from in the Fiesta Bowl last season). I think they get it done, but I think SMU puts a little scare into them early. Who knows, if the Mustangs hang around until halftime, anything can happen in quarters 3 and 4. 17.5 points as a spread in this game seems a bit much to me, but I do like the team playing some defense to win this one. TCU 38, SMU 27.
Air Force @ Wyoming: Air Force looks to be as legitimately good as I indicated in the offseason (but not prior to week two). After pummeling an FCS and then BYU, as if it was an FCS school, they played at Oklahoma about as tough as anybody has in a long time. They moved the ball much of the game. They stopped Oklahoma from moving the ball much of the game. Wyoming is coming off one of the more thorough thumpings they've received in a while. While the 3-4 is more suited to stopping the Air Force option attack, their inability to run the ball on offense is going to keep that defense on the field a long time. Again. Air Force 38, Wyoming 10.
Idaho @ CSU: CSU finally scored a touchdown last week. They may even get another one this week. Idaho is looking to go 3-1, 2-0 against the MWC, which would be 2 consecutive years for both. Idaho 31, CSU 13.
Utah State @ SDSU: San Diego State has had a lot of success running the ball this year. Utah State has had a lot of trouble stopping the run (and they've played 3 teams that are definitely more pass-oriented). San Diego State has also had success throwing the ball. Both teams, in fact, have demonstrated very good balance so far this season. This game, however, I would anticipate Utah State trying to take advantage of SDSU's pass defense, and SDSU trying to take advantage of USU's run defense. Both teams need the W if they hope to get to bowl eligibility. It's a late game, in San Diego. I like the Aztecs here: SDSU 35, Utah State 24.
San Jose State @ Utah: not much to say here. One team is probably pretty good, we'll learn a little bit more about them NEXT week, and one team is pretty bad. Utah 45, San Jose State 9.
New Mexico @ UNLV: the pillow fight of the week. Two defeated teams battling to be the one that moves out of the ESPN Bottom 10 (for a week at least). UNLV has a better defense, both offenses stink on ice, and New Mexico is at home. They expect at least 10,000 people out for the game...first one to 5 scores wins. I'll give the edge to the home team, but I fear this might be my first wrong non-BYU MWC pick (though I missed three scores pretty badly to this point). New Mexico 35, UNLV 31.
Air Force @ Wyoming: Air Force looks to be as legitimately good as I indicated in the offseason (but not prior to week two). After pummeling an FCS and then BYU, as if it was an FCS school, they played at Oklahoma about as tough as anybody has in a long time. They moved the ball much of the game. They stopped Oklahoma from moving the ball much of the game. Wyoming is coming off one of the more thorough thumpings they've received in a while. While the 3-4 is more suited to stopping the Air Force option attack, their inability to run the ball on offense is going to keep that defense on the field a long time. Again. Air Force 38, Wyoming 10.
Idaho @ CSU: CSU finally scored a touchdown last week. They may even get another one this week. Idaho is looking to go 3-1, 2-0 against the MWC, which would be 2 consecutive years for both. Idaho 31, CSU 13.
Utah State @ SDSU: San Diego State has had a lot of success running the ball this year. Utah State has had a lot of trouble stopping the run (and they've played 3 teams that are definitely more pass-oriented). San Diego State has also had success throwing the ball. Both teams, in fact, have demonstrated very good balance so far this season. This game, however, I would anticipate Utah State trying to take advantage of SDSU's pass defense, and SDSU trying to take advantage of USU's run defense. Both teams need the W if they hope to get to bowl eligibility. It's a late game, in San Diego. I like the Aztecs here: SDSU 35, Utah State 24.
San Jose State @ Utah: not much to say here. One team is probably pretty good, we'll learn a little bit more about them NEXT week, and one team is pretty bad. Utah 45, San Jose State 9.
New Mexico @ UNLV: the pillow fight of the week. Two defeated teams battling to be the one that moves out of the ESPN Bottom 10 (for a week at least). UNLV has a better defense, both offenses stink on ice, and New Mexico is at home. They expect at least 10,000 people out for the game...first one to 5 scores wins. I'll give the edge to the home team, but I fear this might be my first wrong non-BYU MWC pick (though I missed three scores pretty badly to this point). New Mexico 35, UNLV 31.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, Week Four
Poppinga, Anyone?
BYU has scored 14 and 10 points in two consecutive blowout losses. I remember back in the Crowton days, a guy by the name of Brady Poppinga roamed the sidelines (and the opponent's backfield). After a defeat in Laramie, 13-10, Brady was quoted after the game, "this loss is on our defense. Our offense scored 10 points, that should be more than enough to win." I don't know if he was referring to 10 points in general, or 10 points against Wyoming, but BYU sure needs another guy with that kind of attitude to step up.
Conference Play Begins
While the Big Ten is still playing opponents the magnitude of Ball State, Bowling Green, FCS UNC (Northern Colorado-Greeley), Toledo, FCS Austin Peay, Eastern Michigan, and Temple (all at home for the third time in 4 games), it's nice that conference play has started elsewhere to give us a few good matchups. I can't wait until we can see FCS teams fall from the "Top 25 Overview" completely in a few weeks. Thank goodness for the SEC (and ACC) this weekend, or else we'd have a bunch of non-conference mismatches to sit through again this weekend.
Each season, I become a bigger proponent of trimming the fat, going down to 80 teams, 8 10-team conferences, no FCS opponents allowed, an 11-game schedule with a single bye week (9 conference games and 2 non-conference, though I don't oppose 12 games), and a 16-team playoff with the top 2 teams in each conference, with all other .500 or better teams having an opportunity to play in bowl games...I know I'm a dreamer, but it'd be a lot better than Austin Peay at Wisconsin in late September...or the inevitable argument that "team X should have been in the National Championship Game because they played one less crappy opponent than team Y..." I know a playoff is coming. I just wish it was accompanied by my dream scenario...
AlmostCompetitiveConference-Big lEast Showdown
Which of these BCS conferences sucks worse? Well, judgment weekend has arrived. Both conferences have whittled down to a single ranked team in each, with neither conference having anyone in the top 18. There are two head-to-head matchups, both hosted by Big East underdogs: Miami at Pittsburgh on Thursday night and North Carolina at Rutgers. Duke has a chance to not embarrass itself and the ACC by beating Army at home. The Big East sends its only serious hope to Baton Rouge to face #15 LSU on the Bayou. Two-time defending champion Cincinatti hosts Oklahoma in the Sooners' first road game of the season. UConn, Syracuse, and South Florida simply need to not lose to save face. These conferences continue to underperform, compared to their BCS brethren. Will either or both step up? Either way, the WAC and the MWC are currently flexing their muscles at the top of the rankings. The middle of those conferences may be better, but if TWO non-BCS conferences have better shots at a national title than two BCS conferences, then they're in trouble. Another reason to dump the current BCS format...why should an unranked, 3-loss Big East champ get an automatic bid when the others are fighting tooth and nail to get a seat.
The Season of Wide Open Races
I don't remember a season when so many conference titles were literally wide open. No one can ever definitively say who will win the SEC or Big XII at the start of the season. Usually the Big Ten has a clear favorite (Ohio State). The Pac 10 was the Pac 1 for nearly a decade. This season, though, the WAC is the only foregone conclusion with Boise State (though some folks think Nevada and Fresno State might have something to say about it, I don't, for one reason: depth, Boise State's got it, others don't), with the MWC and TCU pretty close behind. I'm not willing to call Utah in or out of the race just yet, they just simply haven't played a schedule that tells us anything about them yet. Air Force presents a formidable challenge to Utah's chances (and perhaps BYU might be able, after another 9 games, to present a challenge), but Utah is the only team preventing TCU from going winning the conference.
The Big Ten has 2-6 teams that could win it, if you count Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa, which some experts do (I don't, if you couldn't catch the sarcasm there, and Michigan is a long shot too). It's probably going to be Wisconsin or Ohio State (they play at Camp Randall on October 16th, Wisconsin needs to win to have any chance, where Ohio State could absorb a loss). The SEC will probably boil down to Florida or Alabama again, but Arkansas, Auburn, and South Carolina have their best teams in recent memory. LSU won't win it, but could always play spoiler for somebody else. The ACC is as mediocre as I ever remember from them, top-to-bottom, and, in that scenario, it's completely up for grabs. The Big East has definitely taken ANOTHER step back this season, with West Virginia the ONLY team that could really separate itself from the rest of the group, and their likelihood for going undefeated isn't likely traveling to UConn and Pitt.
The Big XII has Nebraska, and no others from the North, and Texas and Oklahoma. Nebraska has the easiest road: all they have to do is win the Big XII Title Game, because they will be in it whether they beat Texas at home or not. Texas will either have to beat Oklahoma at a neutral site, or Nebraska on the road, and then beat Nebraska at a neutral site. While OU will have to beat both Texas and Nebraska at neutral sites. None of those are easy tasks: one of them will definitely do it, but everyone disagrees on which one. The Pac 10 sure looks like Oregon, but realistically, the only teams that have zero chance to win it are UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State. Stanford could, USC could (and really screw the conference over since they can't go to the Rose Bowl...), Arizona might, Oregon State almost did it last year, and if Cal survives a trip to the Arizona desert this weekend and at USC in mid-October, they get Oregon and Stanford at home and could win it too.
Conference USA has two potential champs in the East in Southern Miss and East Carolina, plus a few potentials in the West in Houston, SMU, and UTEP. This was supposed to be Temple's year in the MAC, and maybe it is, but they nearly lost to FCS Villanova and eked by Central Michigan at home in a rebuilding year for them. The Sun Belt only has four teams that can't win it. The rest all could.
I love the open races. I hope someone dethrones Ohio State and busts through the Florida-Bama stronghold. The fact is: hope still springs eternal for a lot of teams hoping for conference titles.
BYU has scored 14 and 10 points in two consecutive blowout losses. I remember back in the Crowton days, a guy by the name of Brady Poppinga roamed the sidelines (and the opponent's backfield). After a defeat in Laramie, 13-10, Brady was quoted after the game, "this loss is on our defense. Our offense scored 10 points, that should be more than enough to win." I don't know if he was referring to 10 points in general, or 10 points against Wyoming, but BYU sure needs another guy with that kind of attitude to step up.
Conference Play Begins
While the Big Ten is still playing opponents the magnitude of Ball State, Bowling Green, FCS UNC (Northern Colorado-Greeley), Toledo, FCS Austin Peay, Eastern Michigan, and Temple (all at home for the third time in 4 games), it's nice that conference play has started elsewhere to give us a few good matchups. I can't wait until we can see FCS teams fall from the "Top 25 Overview" completely in a few weeks. Thank goodness for the SEC (and ACC) this weekend, or else we'd have a bunch of non-conference mismatches to sit through again this weekend.
Each season, I become a bigger proponent of trimming the fat, going down to 80 teams, 8 10-team conferences, no FCS opponents allowed, an 11-game schedule with a single bye week (9 conference games and 2 non-conference, though I don't oppose 12 games), and a 16-team playoff with the top 2 teams in each conference, with all other .500 or better teams having an opportunity to play in bowl games...I know I'm a dreamer, but it'd be a lot better than Austin Peay at Wisconsin in late September...or the inevitable argument that "team X should have been in the National Championship Game because they played one less crappy opponent than team Y..." I know a playoff is coming. I just wish it was accompanied by my dream scenario...
AlmostCompetitiveConference-Big lEast Showdown
Which of these BCS conferences sucks worse? Well, judgment weekend has arrived. Both conferences have whittled down to a single ranked team in each, with neither conference having anyone in the top 18. There are two head-to-head matchups, both hosted by Big East underdogs: Miami at Pittsburgh on Thursday night and North Carolina at Rutgers. Duke has a chance to not embarrass itself and the ACC by beating Army at home. The Big East sends its only serious hope to Baton Rouge to face #15 LSU on the Bayou. Two-time defending champion Cincinatti hosts Oklahoma in the Sooners' first road game of the season. UConn, Syracuse, and South Florida simply need to not lose to save face. These conferences continue to underperform, compared to their BCS brethren. Will either or both step up? Either way, the WAC and the MWC are currently flexing their muscles at the top of the rankings. The middle of those conferences may be better, but if TWO non-BCS conferences have better shots at a national title than two BCS conferences, then they're in trouble. Another reason to dump the current BCS format...why should an unranked, 3-loss Big East champ get an automatic bid when the others are fighting tooth and nail to get a seat.
The Season of Wide Open Races
I don't remember a season when so many conference titles were literally wide open. No one can ever definitively say who will win the SEC or Big XII at the start of the season. Usually the Big Ten has a clear favorite (Ohio State). The Pac 10 was the Pac 1 for nearly a decade. This season, though, the WAC is the only foregone conclusion with Boise State (though some folks think Nevada and Fresno State might have something to say about it, I don't, for one reason: depth, Boise State's got it, others don't), with the MWC and TCU pretty close behind. I'm not willing to call Utah in or out of the race just yet, they just simply haven't played a schedule that tells us anything about them yet. Air Force presents a formidable challenge to Utah's chances (and perhaps BYU might be able, after another 9 games, to present a challenge), but Utah is the only team preventing TCU from going winning the conference.
The Big Ten has 2-6 teams that could win it, if you count Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa, which some experts do (I don't, if you couldn't catch the sarcasm there, and Michigan is a long shot too). It's probably going to be Wisconsin or Ohio State (they play at Camp Randall on October 16th, Wisconsin needs to win to have any chance, where Ohio State could absorb a loss). The SEC will probably boil down to Florida or Alabama again, but Arkansas, Auburn, and South Carolina have their best teams in recent memory. LSU won't win it, but could always play spoiler for somebody else. The ACC is as mediocre as I ever remember from them, top-to-bottom, and, in that scenario, it's completely up for grabs. The Big East has definitely taken ANOTHER step back this season, with West Virginia the ONLY team that could really separate itself from the rest of the group, and their likelihood for going undefeated isn't likely traveling to UConn and Pitt.
The Big XII has Nebraska, and no others from the North, and Texas and Oklahoma. Nebraska has the easiest road: all they have to do is win the Big XII Title Game, because they will be in it whether they beat Texas at home or not. Texas will either have to beat Oklahoma at a neutral site, or Nebraska on the road, and then beat Nebraska at a neutral site. While OU will have to beat both Texas and Nebraska at neutral sites. None of those are easy tasks: one of them will definitely do it, but everyone disagrees on which one. The Pac 10 sure looks like Oregon, but realistically, the only teams that have zero chance to win it are UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State. Stanford could, USC could (and really screw the conference over since they can't go to the Rose Bowl...), Arizona might, Oregon State almost did it last year, and if Cal survives a trip to the Arizona desert this weekend and at USC in mid-October, they get Oregon and Stanford at home and could win it too.
Conference USA has two potential champs in the East in Southern Miss and East Carolina, plus a few potentials in the West in Houston, SMU, and UTEP. This was supposed to be Temple's year in the MAC, and maybe it is, but they nearly lost to FCS Villanova and eked by Central Michigan at home in a rebuilding year for them. The Sun Belt only has four teams that can't win it. The rest all could.
I love the open races. I hope someone dethrones Ohio State and busts through the Florida-Bama stronghold. The fact is: hope still springs eternal for a lot of teams hoping for conference titles.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, Week Four
Week One against Washington, Cornerback Brandon Bradley goes down with an injury. Reserve Corby Eason comes into the game and breaks up a few passes. He does pretty well in coverage for a few series. In fact, while he was in the game, Washington attacked the other side, Brian Logan's side, for two big pass plays.
Week Three against Florida State, Brian Logan gets hurt and goes out of the game. Corby Eason comes in, makes a few tackles, and breaks up another pass. His coverage is sound, and, again, the two big rushing plays that happened while he was in the game went to the other side. The big pass play was also thrown at Brandon Bradley, not Eason.
Brandon Bradley has the size factor: he's the first decent corner BYU has had in a long time that was actually 6-feet tall. But that didn't help in the jump ball FSU threw at him, or against Washington, Air Force, or FSU in big running plays (the 4 biggest running plays BYU has surrendered this season all have this in common: #5 taking a bad angle and missing the back 5 yards into his run).
Brian Logan closes the gaps quickly and is an excellent open-field tackler. But that didn't help when Washington picked on him twice in the 4th quarter for big passing plays. It only helps him when a bad throw is made and then he almost certainly breaks up the pass, and in all those pass break-ups he had last year, and the 3 already from this year, he's only had 3 interceptions. That's got to be one of the lowest ratios in the NCAA, one out of every 7 passes he makes a play on, he actually picks off.
Most of the big pass plays on the season are a result of a blown coverage by a corner, or a bad angle by Brandon Bradley on a running play. Every time I am impressed by the play of a BYU CB, I look closer and it's almost always #25, Corby Eason. He can play either boundary or field corner, it doesn't matter. I realize that we have a smaller sample size with Eason, but the fact that he has made zero noticeable mistakes in about 6 series, where Logan and Bradley have made plenty, it makes you wonder: why isn't Corby getting more playing time? That's what I'm waffling about this Wednesday.
Week Three against Florida State, Brian Logan gets hurt and goes out of the game. Corby Eason comes in, makes a few tackles, and breaks up another pass. His coverage is sound, and, again, the two big rushing plays that happened while he was in the game went to the other side. The big pass play was also thrown at Brandon Bradley, not Eason.
Brandon Bradley has the size factor: he's the first decent corner BYU has had in a long time that was actually 6-feet tall. But that didn't help in the jump ball FSU threw at him, or against Washington, Air Force, or FSU in big running plays (the 4 biggest running plays BYU has surrendered this season all have this in common: #5 taking a bad angle and missing the back 5 yards into his run).
Brian Logan closes the gaps quickly and is an excellent open-field tackler. But that didn't help when Washington picked on him twice in the 4th quarter for big passing plays. It only helps him when a bad throw is made and then he almost certainly breaks up the pass, and in all those pass break-ups he had last year, and the 3 already from this year, he's only had 3 interceptions. That's got to be one of the lowest ratios in the NCAA, one out of every 7 passes he makes a play on, he actually picks off.
Most of the big pass plays on the season are a result of a blown coverage by a corner, or a bad angle by Brandon Bradley on a running play. Every time I am impressed by the play of a BYU CB, I look closer and it's almost always #25, Corby Eason. He can play either boundary or field corner, it doesn't matter. I realize that we have a smaller sample size with Eason, but the fact that he has made zero noticeable mistakes in about 6 series, where Logan and Bradley have made plenty, it makes you wonder: why isn't Corby getting more playing time? That's what I'm waffling about this Wednesday.
QB Rotation Settled
Jake Heaps will be BYU's starting QB for the rest of the season. Riley Nelson is out. He is set to have surgery on his non-throwing shoulder and will be on the shelf for the year. Jake Heaps will be the starting QB now. Thus settles the debate. No more "situational" reps, no more questioning who is the leader, no more alternating series. It is Jake Heaps' team now, for better or for worse. Let's hope it's for the better.
I believe that this will help BYU's offense development into the offense it needs to be. Instead of trying to tailor a successful product to fit a QB with different tools than his predecessors, they can prepare a very skilled QB, of the same ilk as his predecessors, to succeed in this offense. There will be no more stacked boxes. The field will be spread. The RBs will have more room in the running game. There will be more space for the WRs and TEs to get open. Heaps will get more reps and throws in practice. Everybody will have an opportunity to flourish in what BYU's offense should look like and generate the chemistry that has been so desparately absent the past two games. The defense could use some time to rest with longer offensive drives, an opportunity to play with a lead (which they were very good at against Washington, but haven't had much opportunity since), and a chance to get coached up on the sidelines between series. I think this will end up being a blessing for BYU's offense by eliminating any hesitation of giving Heaps full control of the reins. I feel sorry for Nelson, but you have to move on. I wish they would have come to this decision without the injury, but it will be the best thing for this offense.
I believe that this will help BYU's offense development into the offense it needs to be. Instead of trying to tailor a successful product to fit a QB with different tools than his predecessors, they can prepare a very skilled QB, of the same ilk as his predecessors, to succeed in this offense. There will be no more stacked boxes. The field will be spread. The RBs will have more room in the running game. There will be more space for the WRs and TEs to get open. Heaps will get more reps and throws in practice. Everybody will have an opportunity to flourish in what BYU's offense should look like and generate the chemistry that has been so desparately absent the past two games. The defense could use some time to rest with longer offensive drives, an opportunity to play with a lead (which they were very good at against Washington, but haven't had much opportunity since), and a chance to get coached up on the sidelines between series. I think this will end up being a blessing for BYU's offense by eliminating any hesitation of giving Heaps full control of the reins. I feel sorry for Nelson, but you have to move on. I wish they would have come to this decision without the injury, but it will be the best thing for this offense.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, Week Four
Historically Futile?
2005 was the last time BYU scored 14 points or less in two games in an entire season. 2004 (Crowton's final year) was the last time they did it in consecutive games. As far as the last time BYU went two consecutive games without 150 passing yards in either, I think you would have to go back to the Pre-LaVell Era for that. It hasn't happened under Mendenhall, and it didn't happen under Crowton either. I can't imagine LaVell EVER going two games in a row without at least 150 yards passing. For most of his 30+ years he was throwing 40-50 times a game...
BYU fans have been spoiled the past 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall. John Beck and Max Hall made moving the ball seem easy. Most games (not against TCU or Utah), BYU was going to get 21+ points and 200+ passing yards. 35 points and 300 passing yards wasn't all that difficult to attain for them either. How good was the John Beck with Johnny Harline, Daniel Coats, Todd Watkins, Curtis Brown, and Austin Collie combination? Or the Max Hall with Dennis Pitta, Andrew George, Austin Collie, Harvey Unga, and McKay Jacobson combo? This year, BYU is definitely struggling to score points. Right now, it can't even move the chains effectively enough to get in field goal range. And getting less than 200 yards against an unranked opponent...maybe moving the ball down the field is harder than it looks.
The Tables Have Turned:
California scored 52 points in each of its first two games, winning 52-3 and 52-7 against FCS UC Davis and Colorado, respectively. Nevada took note: the first one to 52 wins. Nevada got there first, beating Cal 52-31 this past weekend. The last time Cal gave up over 50 points to an opponent was 2002, before Jeff Tedford arrived in Berkley.
Packing The Heat:
The Nevada Wolfpack have improved their scoring output each game, 49, 51, and 52. Last season, Nevada had a similar 50+ average scoring streak over three games, but it came against San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. They were "held" to 33 points the next game against Boise State. The question is: if BYU held them to only 33 points this Saturday, how much would Nevada have won by?
To this point, Nevada has averaged over 300 yards/game on the ground, good for 5th best in the country. In the ultimate strength vs. weakness battle this weekend, they are playing the 119th (out of 120) rushing defense in the country, in BYU. Nevada certainly is aiming for 300, while BYU needs to see that number 200 or less.
Mobile QB, My Eye:
BYU has played 3 mobile QBs already this season. The first was Jake Locker, who rushed 11 times for 29 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 9 yards. Then came Tim Jefferson, who rushed 9 times for 38 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 17 yards. Last weekend it was Christian Ponder, who rushed 13 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 18 yards. All 3 of them were, at best, the third leading rusher on their team during their game against BYU. If BYU can keep those statistics going after facing Colin Kaepernick this weekend (less than 5 yards per carry, less than 100 yards, 1 TD or less, longest rush under 20 yards, 3rd leading rusher on his team), their chances are a lot better this weekend than if they don't. If he gets 100 yards or two TDs (and leads his team in rushing), it's tough to envision the current "offensive" offense BYU is putting out on the field outscoring CK and the Wolfpack. And let's not forget Vai Taua, who enters his 4th game of his senior year well on pace to have 3 consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons.
2005 was the last time BYU scored 14 points or less in two games in an entire season. 2004 (Crowton's final year) was the last time they did it in consecutive games. As far as the last time BYU went two consecutive games without 150 passing yards in either, I think you would have to go back to the Pre-LaVell Era for that. It hasn't happened under Mendenhall, and it didn't happen under Crowton either. I can't imagine LaVell EVER going two games in a row without at least 150 yards passing. For most of his 30+ years he was throwing 40-50 times a game...
BYU fans have been spoiled the past 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall. John Beck and Max Hall made moving the ball seem easy. Most games (not against TCU or Utah), BYU was going to get 21+ points and 200+ passing yards. 35 points and 300 passing yards wasn't all that difficult to attain for them either. How good was the John Beck with Johnny Harline, Daniel Coats, Todd Watkins, Curtis Brown, and Austin Collie combination? Or the Max Hall with Dennis Pitta, Andrew George, Austin Collie, Harvey Unga, and McKay Jacobson combo? This year, BYU is definitely struggling to score points. Right now, it can't even move the chains effectively enough to get in field goal range. And getting less than 200 yards against an unranked opponent...maybe moving the ball down the field is harder than it looks.
The Tables Have Turned:
California scored 52 points in each of its first two games, winning 52-3 and 52-7 against FCS UC Davis and Colorado, respectively. Nevada took note: the first one to 52 wins. Nevada got there first, beating Cal 52-31 this past weekend. The last time Cal gave up over 50 points to an opponent was 2002, before Jeff Tedford arrived in Berkley.
Packing The Heat:
The Nevada Wolfpack have improved their scoring output each game, 49, 51, and 52. Last season, Nevada had a similar 50+ average scoring streak over three games, but it came against San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. They were "held" to 33 points the next game against Boise State. The question is: if BYU held them to only 33 points this Saturday, how much would Nevada have won by?
To this point, Nevada has averaged over 300 yards/game on the ground, good for 5th best in the country. In the ultimate strength vs. weakness battle this weekend, they are playing the 119th (out of 120) rushing defense in the country, in BYU. Nevada certainly is aiming for 300, while BYU needs to see that number 200 or less.
Mobile QB, My Eye:
BYU has played 3 mobile QBs already this season. The first was Jake Locker, who rushed 11 times for 29 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 9 yards. Then came Tim Jefferson, who rushed 9 times for 38 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 17 yards. Last weekend it was Christian Ponder, who rushed 13 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, with his longest rush being 18 yards. All 3 of them were, at best, the third leading rusher on their team during their game against BYU. If BYU can keep those statistics going after facing Colin Kaepernick this weekend (less than 5 yards per carry, less than 100 yards, 1 TD or less, longest rush under 20 yards, 3rd leading rusher on his team), their chances are a lot better this weekend than if they don't. If he gets 100 yards or two TDs (and leads his team in rushing), it's tough to envision the current "offensive" offense BYU is putting out on the field outscoring CK and the Wolfpack. And let's not forget Vai Taua, who enters his 4th game of his senior year well on pace to have 3 consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Florida State Hits The Ground Running
The final score was worse than the Air Force game last week, but it sure felt better watching it. Perhaps that is what lowered expectations will do. The 10 points and less than 200 yards offense was disappointing, but at least it felt like BYU COULD move the ball more. Heaps was slinging it around, with some bad throws and some poor decisions, but at least he forced the defense to react to him, instead of the other way around. Defensively, it was very reminiscent of last season's game against FSU: too many missed tackles and third down conversions. They seemed to get FSU right where they wanted them, but nobody ever actually made the play.
Offensive issues:
The passing game is ineffective because the pass catchers are not doing their job. Jacobson was rarely targeted again, but dropped one (again). Ashworth is a good 5th or 6th option, but he seems to be one of the top targets after DiLuigi. Chambers continues to not live up to the hype. Hoffman is the new Ashworth, 3 yards/reception and a couple of drops. And when was the last time BYU went an entire game without a TE making a catch? I don't recall a single throw even going to a TE (though I did miss much of the first quarter). This just isn't the pass-catching group BYU fans have become accustomed to. There is no go-to guy. There's not even a guy you trust on first and 10, let alone 3rd and got-to-have-it.
Heaps has a cannon, but he has not proven to be an effective game-manager yet, i.e. he lacks experience. He doesn't have a great feel for the pocket right now and doesn't feel the rush very well. He has a tendency to fade backwards in the pocket, which makes the throw a yard farther and take that much longer. He doesn't know when to leave the pocket, or when to step up in it. He still can't find the touch on the short passes. He seems to throw into coverage when there are open receivers. If there was a stud WR he was targeting in traffic, that's one thing, but it's often Ashworth or Chambers that he's threading a needle to. He played a lot better in the first half, but didn't respond to the adjustments FSU made at halftime. That's just inexperience (and bad play-calling, Coach Anae! Are you noticing that theme yet?).
The O-Line did OK this game. They opened holes for the ground game, 29 carries for 137 yards (not counting sacks) is very good. On most passing plays they allowed Heaps time to throw. Heaps got sacked 6 times, but I would say 3 or 4 of them were more of Heaps' fault than the OL.
DiLuigi and Kariya had lots of lanes when Heaps came into the game. They both played well. Kariya had a couple of nice blitz pickups. DiLuigi led the team in rushing and receiving yards. He looks like the only good player on offense, and would be a great player if he could hang on to the ball a little better.
The most interesting thing to me is the coaches were saying the QB position would be situational. I have a hard time believing there wasn't a single "situation" that favored Nelson starting mid-2nd quarter. I am not vying for a two-QB system. But in 3rd and short or goalline situations, why not put Nelson in? Given that they were running the ball in those situations anyway, why not put an extra running threat in the game, or at least give the defense something else to think about? Heaps played great (for a freshman) considering the situation and opponent. But he needs to play like a redshirt or sophomore...
I continue to misread the BYU offense, giving them more credit than they deserve in my predictions. They can't finish drives, make big plays, or even catch the simple passes. Next week, they will need to eat some more clock with fewer three and outs and longer drives. Most importantly, they will need to put some points on the board, like 31 or more.
Defensive issues:
Tackling, tackling, tackling. BYU gave up 280 rushing yards. I would guess 180 of it came after a defender made contact with the back. I recognize that Florida State has athletes that make a lot of people miss, but this has been a consistent theme through three games for BYU. DL are arm-tackling. LBs are not wrapping up, hoping the big hit is enough. DBs are just whiffing entirely. When a back gets to the second level, unless it's Pendleton there (and most plays Rich), you just get the feeling that any play could be a big play. FSU had more rushing plays for more than 20 yards than they did passing plays.
The secondary did a good job in pass defense today. Given the speed and escapability of the FSU WRs, holding them down like they did was pretty good: the WRs had 147 yards on 13 catches. However, their run support continues to be a liability. They take a lot of bad angles. They don't get off blocks very well. And when they do actually make contact with a back, they usually only slow him down enough for a LB to complete the play instead of finishing it themselves.
The LBs missed Ponder way too much. They had their shots at him behind the line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, and downfield. He was able to extend too many plays and drives with his legs. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) and Andy Dalton (TCU) are going to be better runners than he is. That doesn't bode too well for them going into next week. However, the LBs were very active. They were running sideline to sideline, chasing down faster players. They just didn't tackle well, except for Pendleton. Frazier, Hunter, and Leung-Wei continue to show flashes of brilliance, but not consistent flashes.
The DL got good push most of the game. I would say they actually controlled the line of scrimmage quite well. But, given that the 8 guys behind them aren't making tackles, they need to finish the play upfront. Manumaleuna, Fuga, So'oto eat up blockers well, but haven't been making the tackles the back 8 apparently needs them to make. 278 rushing yards after over 400 given up last week is just not good. You have to say it starts upfront, even though I see this BYU Defensive Front doing the same things last year's Front did.
BYU clearly has good players on the field, but it definitely does not have a good team on the field. Football is the ultimate team sport: it takes 11 guys doing their job in order to work. With the youth BYU has right now on both sides of the ball, it seems that 8 or 9 guys will have a good play, but the other 2 or 3 are making costly mistakes that opponents are taking advantage of. There is hope for this team yet, but they have a long way to go. This feels, to me, a lot like John Beck's junior year, with a slightly less fundamentally sound defense, and with an inability to stretch the field vertically on offense. That team went 6-5, and then lost in the Vegas Bowl to Cal and DeSean Jackson to finish 6-6. I still think there is a chance for them to go 8-4, but if the turnaround doesn't happen next weekend in Provo, this thing could get out of hand in a hurry. The first month of the season was going to be rough, but if they can get out with a 2-2 record, they will be in good shape heading into the rest of the season. At 1-3, it could unravel quickly. At this point, 10 wins is a longshot, at best, and would certainly require a bowl victory.
Looking ahead, it doesn't get much easier. They head home to take on a Nevada team that just dropped 52 points and 316 rushing yards on a potential Pac 10 contender, beating them by 3 TDs. BYU will need to get that rushing number around 200, or less, and the points down around 24, or less. Then they play at Utah State. Then they host SDSU. They have got to go 3-0 there to save their season. Somebody on the offense has to step up and lead this team into the end zone. Right now, DiLuigi looks like the only one capable of being that leader. Here's looking at you, JJ.
Offensive issues:
The passing game is ineffective because the pass catchers are not doing their job. Jacobson was rarely targeted again, but dropped one (again). Ashworth is a good 5th or 6th option, but he seems to be one of the top targets after DiLuigi. Chambers continues to not live up to the hype. Hoffman is the new Ashworth, 3 yards/reception and a couple of drops. And when was the last time BYU went an entire game without a TE making a catch? I don't recall a single throw even going to a TE (though I did miss much of the first quarter). This just isn't the pass-catching group BYU fans have become accustomed to. There is no go-to guy. There's not even a guy you trust on first and 10, let alone 3rd and got-to-have-it.
Heaps has a cannon, but he has not proven to be an effective game-manager yet, i.e. he lacks experience. He doesn't have a great feel for the pocket right now and doesn't feel the rush very well. He has a tendency to fade backwards in the pocket, which makes the throw a yard farther and take that much longer. He doesn't know when to leave the pocket, or when to step up in it. He still can't find the touch on the short passes. He seems to throw into coverage when there are open receivers. If there was a stud WR he was targeting in traffic, that's one thing, but it's often Ashworth or Chambers that he's threading a needle to. He played a lot better in the first half, but didn't respond to the adjustments FSU made at halftime. That's just inexperience (and bad play-calling, Coach Anae! Are you noticing that theme yet?).
The O-Line did OK this game. They opened holes for the ground game, 29 carries for 137 yards (not counting sacks) is very good. On most passing plays they allowed Heaps time to throw. Heaps got sacked 6 times, but I would say 3 or 4 of them were more of Heaps' fault than the OL.
DiLuigi and Kariya had lots of lanes when Heaps came into the game. They both played well. Kariya had a couple of nice blitz pickups. DiLuigi led the team in rushing and receiving yards. He looks like the only good player on offense, and would be a great player if he could hang on to the ball a little better.
The most interesting thing to me is the coaches were saying the QB position would be situational. I have a hard time believing there wasn't a single "situation" that favored Nelson starting mid-2nd quarter. I am not vying for a two-QB system. But in 3rd and short or goalline situations, why not put Nelson in? Given that they were running the ball in those situations anyway, why not put an extra running threat in the game, or at least give the defense something else to think about? Heaps played great (for a freshman) considering the situation and opponent. But he needs to play like a redshirt or sophomore...
I continue to misread the BYU offense, giving them more credit than they deserve in my predictions. They can't finish drives, make big plays, or even catch the simple passes. Next week, they will need to eat some more clock with fewer three and outs and longer drives. Most importantly, they will need to put some points on the board, like 31 or more.
Defensive issues:
Tackling, tackling, tackling. BYU gave up 280 rushing yards. I would guess 180 of it came after a defender made contact with the back. I recognize that Florida State has athletes that make a lot of people miss, but this has been a consistent theme through three games for BYU. DL are arm-tackling. LBs are not wrapping up, hoping the big hit is enough. DBs are just whiffing entirely. When a back gets to the second level, unless it's Pendleton there (and most plays Rich), you just get the feeling that any play could be a big play. FSU had more rushing plays for more than 20 yards than they did passing plays.
The secondary did a good job in pass defense today. Given the speed and escapability of the FSU WRs, holding them down like they did was pretty good: the WRs had 147 yards on 13 catches. However, their run support continues to be a liability. They take a lot of bad angles. They don't get off blocks very well. And when they do actually make contact with a back, they usually only slow him down enough for a LB to complete the play instead of finishing it themselves.
The LBs missed Ponder way too much. They had their shots at him behind the line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, and downfield. He was able to extend too many plays and drives with his legs. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) and Andy Dalton (TCU) are going to be better runners than he is. That doesn't bode too well for them going into next week. However, the LBs were very active. They were running sideline to sideline, chasing down faster players. They just didn't tackle well, except for Pendleton. Frazier, Hunter, and Leung-Wei continue to show flashes of brilliance, but not consistent flashes.
The DL got good push most of the game. I would say they actually controlled the line of scrimmage quite well. But, given that the 8 guys behind them aren't making tackles, they need to finish the play upfront. Manumaleuna, Fuga, So'oto eat up blockers well, but haven't been making the tackles the back 8 apparently needs them to make. 278 rushing yards after over 400 given up last week is just not good. You have to say it starts upfront, even though I see this BYU Defensive Front doing the same things last year's Front did.
BYU clearly has good players on the field, but it definitely does not have a good team on the field. Football is the ultimate team sport: it takes 11 guys doing their job in order to work. With the youth BYU has right now on both sides of the ball, it seems that 8 or 9 guys will have a good play, but the other 2 or 3 are making costly mistakes that opponents are taking advantage of. There is hope for this team yet, but they have a long way to go. This feels, to me, a lot like John Beck's junior year, with a slightly less fundamentally sound defense, and with an inability to stretch the field vertically on offense. That team went 6-5, and then lost in the Vegas Bowl to Cal and DeSean Jackson to finish 6-6. I still think there is a chance for them to go 8-4, but if the turnaround doesn't happen next weekend in Provo, this thing could get out of hand in a hurry. The first month of the season was going to be rough, but if they can get out with a 2-2 record, they will be in good shape heading into the rest of the season. At 1-3, it could unravel quickly. At this point, 10 wins is a longshot, at best, and would certainly require a bowl victory.
Looking ahead, it doesn't get much easier. They head home to take on a Nevada team that just dropped 52 points and 316 rushing yards on a potential Pac 10 contender, beating them by 3 TDs. BYU will need to get that rushing number around 200, or less, and the points down around 24, or less. Then they play at Utah State. Then they host SDSU. They have got to go 3-0 there to save their season. Somebody on the offense has to step up and lead this team into the end zone. Right now, DiLuigi looks like the only one capable of being that leader. Here's looking at you, JJ.
Friday, September 17, 2010
BYU-Florida State Preview
My boss asked me this morning when I walked in: does BYU have any chance tomorrow? I replied: the only thing I know for sure is that the score starts 0-0, and anything can happen from there. Often times, a rebuilding team will travel on the road to a superior opponent as a double-digit underdog. Everybody, even Gameday, completely writes off the rebuilding, but talented, team. And then they go in and lay a beatdown on their opponent. I've just never thought of BYU as a team like that, mostly because I've never seen them do that. They have had a tough enough time winning those games when they aren't the ones rebuilding.
The biggest weakness on defense for Florida State is obviously their secondary. They got torched for nearly 400 passing yards and 47 points against Oklahoma. However, that was Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, Cameron Kenney, and DeMarco Murray, not Riley Nelson, McKay Jacobson, O'Neill Chambers, and JJ DiLuigi. That was in front of 90,000 fans cheering against FSU, not 70,000 tomahawk-chopping fans. BYU's WRs and TEs have not shown enough to think that they'll be able to put up a 300-yard performance, which is almost a minimum to have any chance for success in this game. Riley Nelson certainly hasn't looked capable of throwing for 300 yards, unless Florida State leaves DiLuigi wide open over the middle of the field a couple of times.
The front 7 for Florida State has looked very good to this point. They held Oklahoma to less than 2.5 yards per carry. They are big, strong, fast, and athletic, especially those DEs. The linebackers are very active in the run game, while, at the same time, more than capable of covering BYU's WRs and TEs one-on-one. I am curious to see HOW BYU plans to attack this defense. One thing I can almost certainly guarantee is that we'll see Brian Kariya a lot more this game for blocking purposes.
Christian Ponder was amazingly efficient in Provo last season. He completed 80% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and rushed for about 7 yards/carry, including several crucial third down plays. The running game, in general, was pretty wide open for FSU against BYU's experienced front 7 last year. I think the DL this year is more suited to handle FSU's run game than last year's undersized, underaggressive group was. The WRs won't be quite as good in the aggregate as last year's FSU team took to Provo, but it has size and speed, the likes of which BYU does not see very often.
Honestly, I think that FSU and Washington compare fairly well. Big, strong-armed, mobile QBs, several stud receivers and backs (though FSU is deeper), very active LBs, and a very porous secondary. Florida State has better offensive and defensive lines. BYU eked one out at home against the lesser of the two teams. How they will go on the road and do it against the better of the two is something I can't really fathom right now. Perhaps Florida State will be overconfident after the beatdown they laid on last year's better, more experienced BYU team on the road.
The one thing this BYU team has over last year's BYU team going into the FSU game is humility. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough to pull this one off. So far I am 0-2 on picking BYU games, and I hope I am 0-3. Florida State 38, BYU 24.
The biggest weakness on defense for Florida State is obviously their secondary. They got torched for nearly 400 passing yards and 47 points against Oklahoma. However, that was Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, Cameron Kenney, and DeMarco Murray, not Riley Nelson, McKay Jacobson, O'Neill Chambers, and JJ DiLuigi. That was in front of 90,000 fans cheering against FSU, not 70,000 tomahawk-chopping fans. BYU's WRs and TEs have not shown enough to think that they'll be able to put up a 300-yard performance, which is almost a minimum to have any chance for success in this game. Riley Nelson certainly hasn't looked capable of throwing for 300 yards, unless Florida State leaves DiLuigi wide open over the middle of the field a couple of times.
The front 7 for Florida State has looked very good to this point. They held Oklahoma to less than 2.5 yards per carry. They are big, strong, fast, and athletic, especially those DEs. The linebackers are very active in the run game, while, at the same time, more than capable of covering BYU's WRs and TEs one-on-one. I am curious to see HOW BYU plans to attack this defense. One thing I can almost certainly guarantee is that we'll see Brian Kariya a lot more this game for blocking purposes.
Christian Ponder was amazingly efficient in Provo last season. He completed 80% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and rushed for about 7 yards/carry, including several crucial third down plays. The running game, in general, was pretty wide open for FSU against BYU's experienced front 7 last year. I think the DL this year is more suited to handle FSU's run game than last year's undersized, underaggressive group was. The WRs won't be quite as good in the aggregate as last year's FSU team took to Provo, but it has size and speed, the likes of which BYU does not see very often.
Honestly, I think that FSU and Washington compare fairly well. Big, strong-armed, mobile QBs, several stud receivers and backs (though FSU is deeper), very active LBs, and a very porous secondary. Florida State has better offensive and defensive lines. BYU eked one out at home against the lesser of the two teams. How they will go on the road and do it against the better of the two is something I can't really fathom right now. Perhaps Florida State will be overconfident after the beatdown they laid on last year's better, more experienced BYU team on the road.
The one thing this BYU team has over last year's BYU team going into the FSU game is humility. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough to pull this one off. So far I am 0-2 on picking BYU games, and I hope I am 0-3. Florida State 38, BYU 24.
MWC Predictions, Week Three
Colorado State at Miami (OH): there aren't many people buying into Steve Fairchild right now. Yes, he's playing a lot of young kids, but his kids have gotten destroyed in two games against average-to-good teams. He finally gets a mediocre team. Problem is: it's become quite obvious he has one of those himself. A freshman QB, a young defense, a lot of points given up, and not many scored. They have not yet scored a TD. They might get their first TD in this game, but they'll go down again: Miami (OH) 24, CSU 10. This is the game they have to get to have ANY chance at a bowl game. A loss here makes it official, no bowl game again for the Colorado State Rams.
Air Force at Oklahoma: the Sooners and Falcons both "got up" for big games last week. Oklahoma would be the more likely to have a let down this week, seeing as how this is still a big game for Air Force, but not for Oklahoma. How will OU adjust to the option? How will Air Force adjust to the game speed, the crowd, and the more-experienced-than-Heaps, with-a-better-arm-than-Nelson, Landry Jones? I believe this game will be closer than the experts think (the spread is currently at 17 points). They should be able to hold Oklahoma from big plays and force them to drive down the field to score. They'll eat up some clock as well with the option, which will help keep the score down. Oklahoma 31, Air Force 24.
Baylor at TCU: Baylor is not as good as Oregon State all-around, but you can never underestimate the importance of a good and experienced QB. However, this is Baylor's first real test of the year. This is the team most similar to what they will see in the Big XII. This will be another example of how far down Baylor is compared to the rest of the Texas schools. TCU is capable of running the ball all over the place and will do so against the overmatched Baylor Bears' defense. I wonder if TCU will actually sell this one out. TCU 41, Baylor 20.
San Diego State at Missouri: and the feel-good story of the MWC comes to a crashing halt. San Diego State finally has to play somebody and the undefeated bid ends. While playing a couple of mamby-pambies helps you get wins, confidence, and bowl eligibility, they don't help you get prepared for Missouri, Utah, TCU, and BYU. Ronnie Hillman is going to wake up to college football this Saturday. After 150 yards and 4 TDs last week against New Mexico State, he's going to face DBs as big as him, LBs as fast as him, and DLs that can actually tackle him. While Missouri isn't exactly known for its defense, they will probably do fairly well at exposing Hillman and his fellow SDSU Aztecs. Missouri 38, SDSU 13.
Utah at New Mexico: Utah had some trouble last time down in Albuquerque. They might have some trouble again this time, but it would have to be something extraneous to the football game, like a flight delay or something. They are 22.5-point favorites. I think that's a sucker's bet. Utah can run, throw, hop, skip, and jump around the most porous New Mexico defense we've seen in quite some time. Utah 48, New Mexico 6. Again, unless Coach Locksley is a good coach.
Boise State at Wyoming: does the Broncos' national championship push stop in Laramie? I don't believe that has ever happened. I don't believe it will happen tomorrow either. The Cowboys just don't have the horses. They gave up 20 points to Southern Utah and 34 to a currently lost Texas offense. They can't run the ball against anybody. They won't be able to throw the ball against Boise State, at least initially. Boise State has had some time off to refocus and re-energize after traveling to DC and beating Va Tech on Labor Day. There will probably be some early miscues on their part, enough to keep Wyoming in it for longer than they should be, but not enough to prevent a 3-score win. Ultimately, Boise State prevails, 28-10.
UNLV at Idaho: how do the Rebels do in Moscow? Well, probably as well as rebels did under the KGB reign in the other Moscow: not well. Let's just say it might be a torturous experience. UNLV has played two difficult opponents, both at home, and both were blowouts. While Idaho is a huge step down from Wisconsin and Utah, it is a difficult, raucous, and extremely inebriated crowd, according to Boise State's president. You play in a dome with 20K+ drunks right on top of you the whole game. The Vandals win, 34-13.
Bonus Game:
Fresno State at Utah State: Fresno State probably has the better defense. Utah State has the better offense. And home field. Fresno State got a week off last week. Utah State got an FCS team after playing Oklahoma tough in Norman in week one. If Utah State is going to move into the upper echelon of the WAC (before it implodes, thanks to BYU and the MWC), it needs THIS game. It is there for the taking and I believe that their balance will win them this game. This does have the makings of a shootout though. I'll go Utah State over Fresno State, 34-31. You can catch this on ESPN3.com, if you get it with your internet package. It starts at 6pm, Mountain, but you can watch the replay anytime. If you love college football, I recommend checking Fresno and Utah State out!
Air Force at Oklahoma: the Sooners and Falcons both "got up" for big games last week. Oklahoma would be the more likely to have a let down this week, seeing as how this is still a big game for Air Force, but not for Oklahoma. How will OU adjust to the option? How will Air Force adjust to the game speed, the crowd, and the more-experienced-than-Heaps, with-a-better-arm-than-Nelson, Landry Jones? I believe this game will be closer than the experts think (the spread is currently at 17 points). They should be able to hold Oklahoma from big plays and force them to drive down the field to score. They'll eat up some clock as well with the option, which will help keep the score down. Oklahoma 31, Air Force 24.
Baylor at TCU: Baylor is not as good as Oregon State all-around, but you can never underestimate the importance of a good and experienced QB. However, this is Baylor's first real test of the year. This is the team most similar to what they will see in the Big XII. This will be another example of how far down Baylor is compared to the rest of the Texas schools. TCU is capable of running the ball all over the place and will do so against the overmatched Baylor Bears' defense. I wonder if TCU will actually sell this one out. TCU 41, Baylor 20.
San Diego State at Missouri: and the feel-good story of the MWC comes to a crashing halt. San Diego State finally has to play somebody and the undefeated bid ends. While playing a couple of mamby-pambies helps you get wins, confidence, and bowl eligibility, they don't help you get prepared for Missouri, Utah, TCU, and BYU. Ronnie Hillman is going to wake up to college football this Saturday. After 150 yards and 4 TDs last week against New Mexico State, he's going to face DBs as big as him, LBs as fast as him, and DLs that can actually tackle him. While Missouri isn't exactly known for its defense, they will probably do fairly well at exposing Hillman and his fellow SDSU Aztecs. Missouri 38, SDSU 13.
Utah at New Mexico: Utah had some trouble last time down in Albuquerque. They might have some trouble again this time, but it would have to be something extraneous to the football game, like a flight delay or something. They are 22.5-point favorites. I think that's a sucker's bet. Utah can run, throw, hop, skip, and jump around the most porous New Mexico defense we've seen in quite some time. Utah 48, New Mexico 6. Again, unless Coach Locksley is a good coach.
Boise State at Wyoming: does the Broncos' national championship push stop in Laramie? I don't believe that has ever happened. I don't believe it will happen tomorrow either. The Cowboys just don't have the horses. They gave up 20 points to Southern Utah and 34 to a currently lost Texas offense. They can't run the ball against anybody. They won't be able to throw the ball against Boise State, at least initially. Boise State has had some time off to refocus and re-energize after traveling to DC and beating Va Tech on Labor Day. There will probably be some early miscues on their part, enough to keep Wyoming in it for longer than they should be, but not enough to prevent a 3-score win. Ultimately, Boise State prevails, 28-10.
UNLV at Idaho: how do the Rebels do in Moscow? Well, probably as well as rebels did under the KGB reign in the other Moscow: not well. Let's just say it might be a torturous experience. UNLV has played two difficult opponents, both at home, and both were blowouts. While Idaho is a huge step down from Wisconsin and Utah, it is a difficult, raucous, and extremely inebriated crowd, according to Boise State's president. You play in a dome with 20K+ drunks right on top of you the whole game. The Vandals win, 34-13.
Bonus Game:
Fresno State at Utah State: Fresno State probably has the better defense. Utah State has the better offense. And home field. Fresno State got a week off last week. Utah State got an FCS team after playing Oklahoma tough in Norman in week one. If Utah State is going to move into the upper echelon of the WAC (before it implodes, thanks to BYU and the MWC), it needs THIS game. It is there for the taking and I believe that their balance will win them this game. This does have the makings of a shootout though. I'll go Utah State over Fresno State, 34-31. You can catch this on ESPN3.com, if you get it with your internet package. It starts at 6pm, Mountain, but you can watch the replay anytime. If you love college football, I recommend checking Fresno and Utah State out!
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, Week Three
Thursday Night Primetime:
Remember when you were pumped to go home and watch the Thursday night matchup on ESPN? Cincinnati at NC State just doesn't do that for me. Last week it was Auburn-Mississippi State, which was a great game, but I didn't wait all day with anticipation. The opening ESPN game of the season was Southern Mississippi, a very good non-BCS program, at perennialy overrated, but unranked, South Carolina. We wait all summer for that first Thursday night game, and Versus delivered a better opening matchup (and game) than ESPN. Better games are on the way, but it will be a month into the season before we get a matchup that might be exciting (Miami at Pittsburgh). Here's hoping for a BYU-Oregon State opener next year! It's currently scheduled for the first Saturday of the season, maybe ESPN can work with that: get BYU's first game as an independent in prime-time on Thursday night...
Matchups to Watch this Weekend:
Right out of the gates Saturday morning, 10am Mountain, we get Arkansas at Georgia. This game shows how huge home-field can be. Arkansas is expected to put up huge points all season. Georgia looked anemic at South Carolina last week, scoring only 6 points. Yet the Bulldogs are the favorites in this game. Go figure.
Maryland at West Virginia, Texas at Texas Tech (ABC, 6pm Mountain), and Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 8:30pm Mountain) are also games to look forward to. Indeed, those three will probably be a lot better than the over-hyped, big-in-name-only matchups from last week's "Monster Saturday."
Upset Alert:
Nebraska at Washington. It is put up or shut up time for Jake Locker. They rebounded well against Syracuse at home, but that was not Nebraska.
I think Nebraska's near-win over Texas in the Big XII Title Game last year is carrying over into far too much hype over this year's Cornhuskers. They are still a little uncertain at QB and eventually someone will force them to pass. They gave up 10 points to Western Kentucky and 17 to Idaho, both at home. How will they do on the road against a much more formidable offensive opponent? I wouldn't bet on Washington, but Nebraska needs to prove to me that it's worth the hype. This is one of VERY FEW chances to do that. For all the crap non-BCS schools like Boise State and TCU take for their schedules, Nebraska only has 5 road games and one ranked opponent on theirs (and the ranked opponent is at home)...
The Great [QB] Debate:
Before the season started, I said that I thought Riley Nelson gave BYU its best chance to beat Florida State, TCU, and Utah. After watching what Air Force did to a steady dose of Nelson-only offense, I retract that statement completely. I was dead wrong. If Air Force can put 8 in the box and cover BYU receivers 1-on-1, those 3 teams could do it even more effectively (if it's possible to get less than 88 yards). The only way Nelson could "loosen" up the D was to throw an incomplete deep bomb to O'Neill Chambers, which doesn't even scare me as a defensive back and I haven't played competitive football in a decade. TJ was 100% right: Nelson and the offense failed because they were set up to fail. It didn't help that they were in a hole for the entire second half due to poor defense and special teams.
It Wasn't All Riley:
BYU's biggest problem was that not one single unit stepped up. The offense kept playing bad because the defense kept playing bad. The defense kept playing bad because "The Shank" couldn't kick it further than 25 yards. The Shank kept doing his thing because the offense kept playing so bad. And so on, and so forth. You kept waiting for a senior leader to step up and say "no more." But then you remembered that there is ONE senior on the offense and only a handful on the defense. And only 3 seniors are returning starters! Andrew Rich did come up and make a big third down stop. But then Air Force went for it on 4th down, ran away from the Manumaleuna/Pendleton/Rich side and scored a 40+ yard TD. In fact, most of Air Force's big plays went to the So'oto/Frazier/Thomas side. Coincidence? I think not.
BYU Scheduling Update:
Currently, BYU has 9 games scheduled for next season. They have five home games against UCF, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State. Their four road matchups are Oregon State, Texas, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech. They have 7 games scheduled for 2012, without Utah or Notre Dame on there at this time.
A couple of things there:
1) I don't see four 2011 home games that ESPN wants to broadcast. I think that means Utah and at least one other BCS program will travel to Provo, with the assistance of ESPN. Those two games, along with Utah State and UCF, will probably be the four ESPN games. The rest of the home games will in all likelihood be on BYU-TV.
2) Playing a game at Hawaii means that BYU could play 13 games next season, should they choose to. I imagine they would choose to, which they definitely should if they can. While I would hope they would go with a 7-6 home/away approach, my guess is that we'd see an 8-5 set-up, given road trips already set for Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana. I don't think they want to take two more long-distance road trips (operating under the assumption that no MWC school wants to play them). MWC schools will be looking for extra opponents, assuming Nevada and Fresno State are locked into the WAC, but I don't see any of the high-profile teams adding a game at BYU to their schedule, except for Air Force, perhaps.
3) This schedule, as it sits right now, is way worse than any MWC schedule would have been. My guess is that at least 3 of those teams will be in the bottom 20.
4) Notre Dame does have 2 openings for next year. I don't know if the 6-game series would actually start next year or not, but BYU definitely needs Notre Dame to come to Provo in 2011. Navy and Army are both maxed out for 2011, so don't expect them until at least 2012.
Remember when you were pumped to go home and watch the Thursday night matchup on ESPN? Cincinnati at NC State just doesn't do that for me. Last week it was Auburn-Mississippi State, which was a great game, but I didn't wait all day with anticipation. The opening ESPN game of the season was Southern Mississippi, a very good non-BCS program, at perennialy overrated, but unranked, South Carolina. We wait all summer for that first Thursday night game, and Versus delivered a better opening matchup (and game) than ESPN. Better games are on the way, but it will be a month into the season before we get a matchup that might be exciting (Miami at Pittsburgh). Here's hoping for a BYU-Oregon State opener next year! It's currently scheduled for the first Saturday of the season, maybe ESPN can work with that: get BYU's first game as an independent in prime-time on Thursday night...
Matchups to Watch this Weekend:
Right out of the gates Saturday morning, 10am Mountain, we get Arkansas at Georgia. This game shows how huge home-field can be. Arkansas is expected to put up huge points all season. Georgia looked anemic at South Carolina last week, scoring only 6 points. Yet the Bulldogs are the favorites in this game. Go figure.
Maryland at West Virginia, Texas at Texas Tech (ABC, 6pm Mountain), and Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 8:30pm Mountain) are also games to look forward to. Indeed, those three will probably be a lot better than the over-hyped, big-in-name-only matchups from last week's "Monster Saturday."
Upset Alert:
Nebraska at Washington. It is put up or shut up time for Jake Locker. They rebounded well against Syracuse at home, but that was not Nebraska.
I think Nebraska's near-win over Texas in the Big XII Title Game last year is carrying over into far too much hype over this year's Cornhuskers. They are still a little uncertain at QB and eventually someone will force them to pass. They gave up 10 points to Western Kentucky and 17 to Idaho, both at home. How will they do on the road against a much more formidable offensive opponent? I wouldn't bet on Washington, but Nebraska needs to prove to me that it's worth the hype. This is one of VERY FEW chances to do that. For all the crap non-BCS schools like Boise State and TCU take for their schedules, Nebraska only has 5 road games and one ranked opponent on theirs (and the ranked opponent is at home)...
The Great [QB] Debate:
Before the season started, I said that I thought Riley Nelson gave BYU its best chance to beat Florida State, TCU, and Utah. After watching what Air Force did to a steady dose of Nelson-only offense, I retract that statement completely. I was dead wrong. If Air Force can put 8 in the box and cover BYU receivers 1-on-1, those 3 teams could do it even more effectively (if it's possible to get less than 88 yards). The only way Nelson could "loosen" up the D was to throw an incomplete deep bomb to O'Neill Chambers, which doesn't even scare me as a defensive back and I haven't played competitive football in a decade. TJ was 100% right: Nelson and the offense failed because they were set up to fail. It didn't help that they were in a hole for the entire second half due to poor defense and special teams.
It Wasn't All Riley:
BYU's biggest problem was that not one single unit stepped up. The offense kept playing bad because the defense kept playing bad. The defense kept playing bad because "The Shank" couldn't kick it further than 25 yards. The Shank kept doing his thing because the offense kept playing so bad. And so on, and so forth. You kept waiting for a senior leader to step up and say "no more." But then you remembered that there is ONE senior on the offense and only a handful on the defense. And only 3 seniors are returning starters! Andrew Rich did come up and make a big third down stop. But then Air Force went for it on 4th down, ran away from the Manumaleuna/Pendleton/Rich side and scored a 40+ yard TD. In fact, most of Air Force's big plays went to the So'oto/Frazier/Thomas side. Coincidence? I think not.
BYU Scheduling Update:
Currently, BYU has 9 games scheduled for next season. They have five home games against UCF, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State. Their four road matchups are Oregon State, Texas, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech. They have 7 games scheduled for 2012, without Utah or Notre Dame on there at this time.
A couple of things there:
1) I don't see four 2011 home games that ESPN wants to broadcast. I think that means Utah and at least one other BCS program will travel to Provo, with the assistance of ESPN. Those two games, along with Utah State and UCF, will probably be the four ESPN games. The rest of the home games will in all likelihood be on BYU-TV.
2) Playing a game at Hawaii means that BYU could play 13 games next season, should they choose to. I imagine they would choose to, which they definitely should if they can. While I would hope they would go with a 7-6 home/away approach, my guess is that we'd see an 8-5 set-up, given road trips already set for Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana. I don't think they want to take two more long-distance road trips (operating under the assumption that no MWC school wants to play them). MWC schools will be looking for extra opponents, assuming Nevada and Fresno State are locked into the WAC, but I don't see any of the high-profile teams adding a game at BYU to their schedule, except for Air Force, perhaps.
3) This schedule, as it sits right now, is way worse than any MWC schedule would have been. My guess is that at least 3 of those teams will be in the bottom 20.
4) Notre Dame does have 2 openings for next year. I don't know if the 6-game series would actually start next year or not, but BYU definitely needs Notre Dame to come to Provo in 2011. Navy and Army are both maxed out for 2011, so don't expect them until at least 2012.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, Week Three
A lot of BYU fans are wavering on their support for a QB this week. That is not what I'm waffling though. The thing that I am considering the most this week for BYU is the utilization of McKay Jacobson on the field.
This season, he has lined up almost exclusively as the inside, slot, or H receiver. After watching the complete ineffectiveness over two games of O'Neill Chambers and Luke Ashworth, it is clear that Jacobson is the best, and perhaps only good, WR on the team. O'Neill Chambers is the big, tall, strong receiver, but he can't get separation from a defensive back. Luke Ashworth is the precise route-runner with the hands, but those are stone hands right now. Jacobson is the leading returning WR in yards, yards/catch, YAC, and tied for TDs. He has been thrown to a grand total of 7 times this season, only 4 of them catchable balls, and he caught 3 of them. I would have to go re-count, but I think 5 of them were from Heaps and only 2 from Nelson.
Why is it that Nelson seems to avoid his best receiver? Well, the slot receiver in BYU's offense runs a lot of crossing routes, slants, digs, with the occasional wheel or seam route. The only route of those that Riley Nelson is ever going to throw is the seam route. He won't throw a crossing or slant route over the middle in a 3-step drop because you usually have to rifle it between LBs and he doesn't have/trust the arm. He won't throw a dig, deep hitch, or wheel route in a 5-step drop because he takes 5 steps, looks at his primary receiver (who should always be Jacobson anyway, but is usually an outside receiver) and takes off running if that guy is not open.
Why can't Heaps seem to find Jacobson? Well, he did hit him in the hands on his wheel route against Washington. However, Heaps struggles, as a lot of young QBs do, with the short passing game. He really loads up to throw that short ball and doesn't want to miss high. As a result, he usually short-hops him. He hasn't had a lot of 5-step drops yet this season to hit him on the dig, deep out, etc.
On the other hand, the outside receivers run a lot more "safe" routes for Nelson. They run outs, hitches, fades, and post patterns. They are less likely to get intercepted and require more touch or finesse and less cannon. The outside receivers also tend to be primary targets on 5-step drops, so Nelson looks at one of them and checks down to a RB before becoming a RB.
I like the POSSIBILITIES with Jacobson as the slot receiver. He gets matched up with LBs and safeties, and he owns those matchups. He has a chance in space and can break big plays, as he did on a couple of plays last season (see his 80-yard TD against Florida State and his 79-yarder against Wyoming). But if you don't have a QB that will or can get him the ball, you have to put him in the spot where he CAN get the ball. He should be getting 3 catches every two quarters, not 3 catches every two games. If I were an offensive coordinator, I wouldn't focus as much on who the QB is so much as I would on how the QB can get his biggest potential playmaker on offense the ball. If that means moving him outside, MOVE HIM OUTSIDE!
This season, he has lined up almost exclusively as the inside, slot, or H receiver. After watching the complete ineffectiveness over two games of O'Neill Chambers and Luke Ashworth, it is clear that Jacobson is the best, and perhaps only good, WR on the team. O'Neill Chambers is the big, tall, strong receiver, but he can't get separation from a defensive back. Luke Ashworth is the precise route-runner with the hands, but those are stone hands right now. Jacobson is the leading returning WR in yards, yards/catch, YAC, and tied for TDs. He has been thrown to a grand total of 7 times this season, only 4 of them catchable balls, and he caught 3 of them. I would have to go re-count, but I think 5 of them were from Heaps and only 2 from Nelson.
Why is it that Nelson seems to avoid his best receiver? Well, the slot receiver in BYU's offense runs a lot of crossing routes, slants, digs, with the occasional wheel or seam route. The only route of those that Riley Nelson is ever going to throw is the seam route. He won't throw a crossing or slant route over the middle in a 3-step drop because you usually have to rifle it between LBs and he doesn't have/trust the arm. He won't throw a dig, deep hitch, or wheel route in a 5-step drop because he takes 5 steps, looks at his primary receiver (who should always be Jacobson anyway, but is usually an outside receiver) and takes off running if that guy is not open.
Why can't Heaps seem to find Jacobson? Well, he did hit him in the hands on his wheel route against Washington. However, Heaps struggles, as a lot of young QBs do, with the short passing game. He really loads up to throw that short ball and doesn't want to miss high. As a result, he usually short-hops him. He hasn't had a lot of 5-step drops yet this season to hit him on the dig, deep out, etc.
On the other hand, the outside receivers run a lot more "safe" routes for Nelson. They run outs, hitches, fades, and post patterns. They are less likely to get intercepted and require more touch or finesse and less cannon. The outside receivers also tend to be primary targets on 5-step drops, so Nelson looks at one of them and checks down to a RB before becoming a RB.
I like the POSSIBILITIES with Jacobson as the slot receiver. He gets matched up with LBs and safeties, and he owns those matchups. He has a chance in space and can break big plays, as he did on a couple of plays last season (see his 80-yard TD against Florida State and his 79-yarder against Wyoming). But if you don't have a QB that will or can get him the ball, you have to put him in the spot where he CAN get the ball. He should be getting 3 catches every two quarters, not 3 catches every two games. If I were an offensive coordinator, I wouldn't focus as much on who the QB is so much as I would on how the QB can get his biggest potential playmaker on offense the ball. If that means moving him outside, MOVE HIM OUTSIDE!
Tuesday Tidbits
Let's start on Rocky Top this week. The University of Tennessee is the ultimate example of "be careful what you wish for." They forced out legendary coach Phillip Fulmer because it had been a decade since his last national championship. They ended up with Lane Kiffin for one season and a bunch of the thugs he recruited (illegally). They may face sanctions for his actions. He left Tennessee worse off than it has been in 30 years. Then they get a PR hire, one who has never had any real football success. After getting thumped at home by Oregon, they now welcome Florida, who is a 16-point favorite ON THE ROAD. I know a lot of teams would get trounced by that combination, but Tennessee shouldn't be 3-score underdogs at home to anybody at home, and two weeks in a row! That wouldn't ever happen to a Phillip Fulmer Tennessee team. Never force out a legend. Time will tell what happens with FSU...
Rich Rodriguez is in his third year at Michigan. He finally has "his" QB: a hybrid runner/thrower. Denard Robinson is perfect for his wide-open attack. This is another situation where a school is in the worst stretch in its history after forcing out a legendary coach because he hadn't won enough lately. Then to go hire the brash, whining anti-clutch Rich Rodriguez. What a poor set of choices. Now I wish Denard Robinson all the success in the world, he seems like a good kid and he is an exceptional athlete. I just wish it didn't have to go hand-in-hand with Rich Rod's.
With their abysmally poor showing over the weekend, the ACC has added itself to the list of conferences that are not in contention for the BCS National Championship. All of the overrated ACC teams from the preseason (besides North Carolina who was idle) got beat and had a very poor showing: Miami played the slop-game of the weekend at Ohio State, Florida State was out of it in quarter one at Oklahoma, Virginia Tech lost to FCS James Madison, and Georgia Tech lost at Kansas (who lost to an FCS school the week prior). They now sit with as many ranked teams as the WAC, Conference-USA, and the Big East. The Sun Belt, Conference-USA, MAC, and Big East are also current members of the out-of-the-championship-race-in-week-two club. If Boise State goes undefeated, there is always a chance, so the WAC is still "in contention." TCU and Utah keep the MWC in the thick of it as well, but as either/both of them lose, that finishes another conference. The Pac 10 will not survive a loss by Oregon either. It's probably going to come down to the Texas-Oklahoma-Nebraska winner, SEC champion, Big Ten champion, Boise State, and TCU. Imagine in basketball, if the national championship was limited to about 6 or 8 teams in early-mid December, before conference play even started...it's a good thing we love the game, because that's just screwy.
To win against Florida State, they must either rotate the QBs or play Heaps, with Nelson coming in as a more situation QB. You cannot play Nelson and bring Heaps in situationally. You also cannot play Nelson as the full-time QB: if Air Force could completely shut BYU down, imagine what the athletes at Florida State, TCU, Utah (or even Utah State) could do? Heaps may not be ready to be the full-time starter yet. If that's the case: rotate until he is. It became clear on Saturday, with the poor play at WR/TE, Nelson will never be ready to be the full-time starter. 65% of the offense (and 100% of the scoring) came in the half when BYU was rotating QBs. In the half that Nelson went at it alone, BYU got the other 35% and only "threatened" to score once. The game got away from BYU when they stopped rotating QBs. Nelson may exhibit leadership skills, but he only led the team to defeat...Now Heaps didn't play well and they didn't score points when he was out there, but at least it forced the defense to play well and differently. Plus, it's not his fault DiLuigi fumbled the ball inside the 10-yard line.
Rich Rodriguez is in his third year at Michigan. He finally has "his" QB: a hybrid runner/thrower. Denard Robinson is perfect for his wide-open attack. This is another situation where a school is in the worst stretch in its history after forcing out a legendary coach because he hadn't won enough lately. Then to go hire the brash, whining anti-clutch Rich Rodriguez. What a poor set of choices. Now I wish Denard Robinson all the success in the world, he seems like a good kid and he is an exceptional athlete. I just wish it didn't have to go hand-in-hand with Rich Rod's.
With their abysmally poor showing over the weekend, the ACC has added itself to the list of conferences that are not in contention for the BCS National Championship. All of the overrated ACC teams from the preseason (besides North Carolina who was idle) got beat and had a very poor showing: Miami played the slop-game of the weekend at Ohio State, Florida State was out of it in quarter one at Oklahoma, Virginia Tech lost to FCS James Madison, and Georgia Tech lost at Kansas (who lost to an FCS school the week prior). They now sit with as many ranked teams as the WAC, Conference-USA, and the Big East. The Sun Belt, Conference-USA, MAC, and Big East are also current members of the out-of-the-championship-race-in-week-two club. If Boise State goes undefeated, there is always a chance, so the WAC is still "in contention." TCU and Utah keep the MWC in the thick of it as well, but as either/both of them lose, that finishes another conference. The Pac 10 will not survive a loss by Oregon either. It's probably going to come down to the Texas-Oklahoma-Nebraska winner, SEC champion, Big Ten champion, Boise State, and TCU. Imagine in basketball, if the national championship was limited to about 6 or 8 teams in early-mid December, before conference play even started...it's a good thing we love the game, because that's just screwy.
To win against Florida State, they must either rotate the QBs or play Heaps, with Nelson coming in as a more situation QB. You cannot play Nelson and bring Heaps in situationally. You also cannot play Nelson as the full-time QB: if Air Force could completely shut BYU down, imagine what the athletes at Florida State, TCU, Utah (or even Utah State) could do? Heaps may not be ready to be the full-time starter yet. If that's the case: rotate until he is. It became clear on Saturday, with the poor play at WR/TE, Nelson will never be ready to be the full-time starter. 65% of the offense (and 100% of the scoring) came in the half when BYU was rotating QBs. In the half that Nelson went at it alone, BYU got the other 35% and only "threatened" to score once. The game got away from BYU when they stopped rotating QBs. Nelson may exhibit leadership skills, but he only led the team to defeat...Now Heaps didn't play well and they didn't score points when he was out there, but at least it forced the defense to play well and differently. Plus, it's not his fault DiLuigi fumbled the ball inside the 10-yard line.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Second Guess Much...
I don't know what was the more emphatic story from today: Air Force playing so well or BYU playing so poorly. Huge credit to Air Force, they took advantage of BYU's front 7 on D and the offense's inability to hold onto the ball. They had the advantage of having all offseason to prepare for BYU, starting with a I-AA team last week, and they did a great job scouting them out. I only recall one or two possessions the entire game where BYU stopped Air Force's offense. They stopped themselves as many times as BYU stopped them (and it wasn't many). They ran outside effectively until BYU started cheating, then they threw deep, then they ran inside, then back outside, and throw in a reverse every now and again for good measure. Whatever they wanted to do, they did. Defensively, Air Force got pressure, covered well, and went after the ball. This was exactly what I thought was going to happen in this game until I let myself get swayed by BYU's win last week and Air Force's tough first half against NW State. Alright, enough praising Air Force, that could go on all day.
First off, I understand Jake Heaps threw a pick. I understand he didn't look comfortable. I also understand that in 3 possessions in the 3rd quarter, Riley Nelson's offense got 26 total yards. The playcalling was pathetic, mostly because of Nelson's limitations in the passing game. They dared BYU to throw and Nelson was 8-19 and ran 20 times. After playing well through one quarter, the offense was embarrassing the final 3 quarters. I counted 7 or 8 dropped passes, 7 or 8 questionable throws by Nelson, and 4 bad throws by Heaps. The defining moment of the game for me was 35-14, BYU 4th and 2 in Falcon territory in the 4th quarter, and BYU ran a QB sweep. I don't blame the call, I blame the personnel: there's not a single person you could throw the ball to. No TE was going to make a play. Ashworth and Chambers looked like high schoolers out there. Jacobson only got thrown to once the entire game. You could argue DiLuigi was the only offensive player who had a good game, but he was the one that fumbled inside the 10-yard line that prevented BYU from taking command of the game early. Nelson's legs were the only thing you could count on (although I would have like to see Heaps in that third drive in the third quarter).
BYU got out-hustled and out-toughed by an out-manned team. Honestly, they should be embarrassed by their performance, no disrespect for Air Force, who was clearly the better team on the field today.
The defense looked like the D I was afraid of this game. When you have young players and they stop Jake Locker, they aren't going to fear Air Force's offense. They paid the proper lip service to the option attack, but you could tell they were not fully aware of how well you need to play to stop Air Force. Again, this was embarrassing for the defense. Giving up 409 rushing yards, when you know they are going to run it 85% of the time, is ridiculous! And the reverse play, I can understand it working against you once, but twice, both in critical situations, one for a long touchdown, and one for a first down which extended the drive that iced the game. They then force a fumble but the D was too busy with their heads up their butts to go get the ball. The Air Force Center ran about 10 yards and grabbed the ball. Pathetic performance.
The good news is next week they are playing a team that lost by 30 points today. Bad news is it's the same team that beat them in Provo last year by 27...after today's performance by the Cougars, the score from New Mexico-Oregon is not out of play...it was a bad day to be a Cougar, but next Saturday might be worse. Let's see some spine next week. Let's see some heart. Some fight. Some effort. And some coaching wouldn't hurt either, Coach Anae.
First off, I understand Jake Heaps threw a pick. I understand he didn't look comfortable. I also understand that in 3 possessions in the 3rd quarter, Riley Nelson's offense got 26 total yards. The playcalling was pathetic, mostly because of Nelson's limitations in the passing game. They dared BYU to throw and Nelson was 8-19 and ran 20 times. After playing well through one quarter, the offense was embarrassing the final 3 quarters. I counted 7 or 8 dropped passes, 7 or 8 questionable throws by Nelson, and 4 bad throws by Heaps. The defining moment of the game for me was 35-14, BYU 4th and 2 in Falcon territory in the 4th quarter, and BYU ran a QB sweep. I don't blame the call, I blame the personnel: there's not a single person you could throw the ball to. No TE was going to make a play. Ashworth and Chambers looked like high schoolers out there. Jacobson only got thrown to once the entire game. You could argue DiLuigi was the only offensive player who had a good game, but he was the one that fumbled inside the 10-yard line that prevented BYU from taking command of the game early. Nelson's legs were the only thing you could count on (although I would have like to see Heaps in that third drive in the third quarter).
BYU got out-hustled and out-toughed by an out-manned team. Honestly, they should be embarrassed by their performance, no disrespect for Air Force, who was clearly the better team on the field today.
The defense looked like the D I was afraid of this game. When you have young players and they stop Jake Locker, they aren't going to fear Air Force's offense. They paid the proper lip service to the option attack, but you could tell they were not fully aware of how well you need to play to stop Air Force. Again, this was embarrassing for the defense. Giving up 409 rushing yards, when you know they are going to run it 85% of the time, is ridiculous! And the reverse play, I can understand it working against you once, but twice, both in critical situations, one for a long touchdown, and one for a first down which extended the drive that iced the game. They then force a fumble but the D was too busy with their heads up their butts to go get the ball. The Air Force Center ran about 10 yards and grabbed the ball. Pathetic performance.
The good news is next week they are playing a team that lost by 30 points today. Bad news is it's the same team that beat them in Provo last year by 27...after today's performance by the Cougars, the score from New Mexico-Oregon is not out of play...it was a bad day to be a Cougar, but next Saturday might be worse. Let's see some spine next week. Let's see some heart. Some fight. Some effort. And some coaching wouldn't hurt either, Coach Anae.
Monster(?) Saturday
So, this week has been dubbed Monster Saturday. There are, for the first time in recent memory, some good traditional non-conference matchups. However, until I see some of these games actually be "classics" I will remain skeptical. Does a rebuilding Penn State, with a true freshman QB, have a chance on the road against the defending National Champions in SEC country? Can Miami, who has been dubbed "almost back" for 3 years running now, really go into the Horseshoe and knock off everyone's second-best (or third if you're a Boise State fan...) team in America? Florida State at Oklahoma? Oregon at Tennessee? Michigan at Notre Dame? Some of these games would have been great 5, 10, 15 years ago. Tennessee is a double-digit underdog to a Pac 10 school: how far have they fallen? 4 years ago, Michigan and Notre Dame played with both teams unranked for the first time since rankings came out. Now this is the third year out of four we have that. Oklahoma nearly lost at home to WAC also-ran Utah State. Florida State, after 14 straight top 5 finishes, hasn't finished in the top 10 in a decade.
If there's anything we learned from West Virginia-Marshall last night, it is that it is difficult to win on the road, even if you are clearly the superior team. Penn State is not a superior team. Miami is not either, despite the "progress" Jacory Harris has made (again, we hear this every week/year). Florida State could be as good or better than OU, we'll have to wait and see on that one. They are actually a very good road team. Oregon is a vastly superior team, but can they win the eastern time zone (the last time they played a game in that time difference was 2007)? Michigan is a lot further along than Notre Dame right now, so they could do it. But give me a break, Monster Saturday? No games involve two top 10 teams. One of the "monster" games doesn't even have a ranked team in it!
I'm putting Oklahoma on potential upset alert but Alabama and Penn State are safe. I don't think Michigan-Notre Dame is worth the hype this year, but I like Michigan there. It will be tough for Oregon to win at Tennessee, but there is no reason that they shouldn't. Certainly nothing Tennessee or Derek Dooley has done makes me think they will hold serve tonight on Rocky Top. Thanks for the hype, but let's see some of these traditional powers play well again before we dub these matchups "great games."
If there's anything we learned from West Virginia-Marshall last night, it is that it is difficult to win on the road, even if you are clearly the superior team. Penn State is not a superior team. Miami is not either, despite the "progress" Jacory Harris has made (again, we hear this every week/year). Florida State could be as good or better than OU, we'll have to wait and see on that one. They are actually a very good road team. Oregon is a vastly superior team, but can they win the eastern time zone (the last time they played a game in that time difference was 2007)? Michigan is a lot further along than Notre Dame right now, so they could do it. But give me a break, Monster Saturday? No games involve two top 10 teams. One of the "monster" games doesn't even have a ranked team in it!
I'm putting Oklahoma on potential upset alert but Alabama and Penn State are safe. I don't think Michigan-Notre Dame is worth the hype this year, but I like Michigan there. It will be tough for Oregon to win at Tennessee, but there is no reason that they shouldn't. Certainly nothing Tennessee or Derek Dooley has done makes me think they will hold serve tonight on Rocky Top. Thanks for the hype, but let's see some of these traditional powers play well again before we dub these matchups "great games."
Friday, September 10, 2010
BYU at Air Force Preview
BYU begins its final MWC tour in Colorado Springs against the Air Force Academy, Saturday at 2pm Mountain, on Versus (or VersusHD where available).
If there ever was a year for Troy Calhoun to beat Bronco Mendenhall, this is it, and not just because this may be the last year to do it. Air Force has a good defense. They have experience at the skill positions on offense. I think people are overhyping the "early in the season" factor. Yes, it's better to play the Falcons later in the year when they're worn down, but playing them early in the year, you get them before their offense has really been clicking. If anything, better in September than October, though November is certainly best of all...
The real question is: does there have to be a year? In 2007, Air Force came into a late-September matchup against BYU with a chance to win. They were the team that was going to challenge BYU for the MWC title. They were going to be the ones to upset BYU in Provo. They had an extra two days of preparation after a Thursday night game the prior week. They had already knocked off Utah on the road and beaten TCU in OT and many "experts" predicted the same thing with the other big name in the MWC (this was before the whole Big Three nonsense). BYU was breaking in a new QB after John Beck, new TEs after Harline and Coats, and a new RB after Curtis Brown. It was supposed to be close. Instead, it was over at halftime. BYU held Air Force to 231 yards and 6 points for the game. Harvey Unga ran for 111 yards. Max Hall threw for 293. Pitta had 5 catches for 114 yards. OK, enough history. Just saying: it doesn't ever have to happen.
But it certainly could happen. One of the big concerns with a young team is complacency. This defense was good enough to keep Jake Locker from breaking loose, so why should Tim Jefferson be any problem? Washington is much bigger, faster, stronger than Air Force, so we should be fine. That's the mindset that can creep in: thinking you are better than you are. However, I don't see that with this bunch: there were too many mistakes made last game. Bronco has drilled it into their heads how difficult the option can be to defend.
A few weeks ago, I predicted that BYU's defense will ultimately decide this game. I believe that is as true today as it was when I first said it. BYU's offensive size, skill, and spread formation SHOULD put up anywhere between 24 and 38 points against the Air Force Falcons, regardless of which QB plays. Obviously an abysmal performance by a QB could lessen that point total, but if one is ineffective, the other one can pick up the slack and the playing time. The real question is, on the road, early in the year, with a talented and experienced QB on the other side, can the BYU defense hold the Falcons to less than 24? The more of a shootout it becomes, the better the chances for Air Force.
BYU's O vs. Air Force's D
BYU has size over Air Force's defense. They spread Air Force out and find creases. The only thing different about this year's BYU offense than the previous 5 years is the additional running threat with Riley Nelson. I feel like BYU should be able to sustain their offensive prowess over the Academy. Last year, Air Force had the best pass defense in the country, statistically speaking, but BYU threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, and scored 38 points. I don't anticipate we'll see quite that showing tomorrow from BYU, but I think BYU should put across 3 or 4 TDs and 2 or 3 FGs.
BYU's D vs. Air Force's O
Again, size is in BYU's favor, but that's pretty typical at the Academy. It is all about discipline, angles, smarts against Air Force. Steven Thomas did well at FS, as did the LBs, last game as far as alignment is concerned. But they will be tested in a lot of different ways this week. The veterans of the defense will have to step up and contain the option. It all starts with Jared Tew, the FB: if he averages less than 3 yards/carry, it makes it easier on the outside with the wings and the QB. If you can't stop the FB, you can't stop the option. It all starts with the defensive line. If they play well and force the Falcons outside, then we'll see Pendleton and Rich with 10 tackles each.
I believe the defense plays well enough to win. I think we'll see something around a 31-20 score, in favor of BYU. If Air Force gets it going early and gets 14-17 points by halftime, BYU is in trouble. If they are sitting around 7 to 10, BYU fans can watch a little less nervously.
This is definitely one of the games I look forward to the most in the MWC season. I will miss it when BYU becomes independent. I am sad that it came so early this year, it just feels more like an October game to me. BYU has dominated the win column in the series, but there have been some good, close, hard-fought games over the years. I expect a similar result today: good game, anyone's game going into the fourth quarter, but BYU pulls it out, 31-20.
If there ever was a year for Troy Calhoun to beat Bronco Mendenhall, this is it, and not just because this may be the last year to do it. Air Force has a good defense. They have experience at the skill positions on offense. I think people are overhyping the "early in the season" factor. Yes, it's better to play the Falcons later in the year when they're worn down, but playing them early in the year, you get them before their offense has really been clicking. If anything, better in September than October, though November is certainly best of all...
The real question is: does there have to be a year? In 2007, Air Force came into a late-September matchup against BYU with a chance to win. They were the team that was going to challenge BYU for the MWC title. They were going to be the ones to upset BYU in Provo. They had an extra two days of preparation after a Thursday night game the prior week. They had already knocked off Utah on the road and beaten TCU in OT and many "experts" predicted the same thing with the other big name in the MWC (this was before the whole Big Three nonsense). BYU was breaking in a new QB after John Beck, new TEs after Harline and Coats, and a new RB after Curtis Brown. It was supposed to be close. Instead, it was over at halftime. BYU held Air Force to 231 yards and 6 points for the game. Harvey Unga ran for 111 yards. Max Hall threw for 293. Pitta had 5 catches for 114 yards. OK, enough history. Just saying: it doesn't ever have to happen.
But it certainly could happen. One of the big concerns with a young team is complacency. This defense was good enough to keep Jake Locker from breaking loose, so why should Tim Jefferson be any problem? Washington is much bigger, faster, stronger than Air Force, so we should be fine. That's the mindset that can creep in: thinking you are better than you are. However, I don't see that with this bunch: there were too many mistakes made last game. Bronco has drilled it into their heads how difficult the option can be to defend.
A few weeks ago, I predicted that BYU's defense will ultimately decide this game. I believe that is as true today as it was when I first said it. BYU's offensive size, skill, and spread formation SHOULD put up anywhere between 24 and 38 points against the Air Force Falcons, regardless of which QB plays. Obviously an abysmal performance by a QB could lessen that point total, but if one is ineffective, the other one can pick up the slack and the playing time. The real question is, on the road, early in the year, with a talented and experienced QB on the other side, can the BYU defense hold the Falcons to less than 24? The more of a shootout it becomes, the better the chances for Air Force.
BYU's O vs. Air Force's D
BYU has size over Air Force's defense. They spread Air Force out and find creases. The only thing different about this year's BYU offense than the previous 5 years is the additional running threat with Riley Nelson. I feel like BYU should be able to sustain their offensive prowess over the Academy. Last year, Air Force had the best pass defense in the country, statistically speaking, but BYU threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, and scored 38 points. I don't anticipate we'll see quite that showing tomorrow from BYU, but I think BYU should put across 3 or 4 TDs and 2 or 3 FGs.
BYU's D vs. Air Force's O
Again, size is in BYU's favor, but that's pretty typical at the Academy. It is all about discipline, angles, smarts against Air Force. Steven Thomas did well at FS, as did the LBs, last game as far as alignment is concerned. But they will be tested in a lot of different ways this week. The veterans of the defense will have to step up and contain the option. It all starts with Jared Tew, the FB: if he averages less than 3 yards/carry, it makes it easier on the outside with the wings and the QB. If you can't stop the FB, you can't stop the option. It all starts with the defensive line. If they play well and force the Falcons outside, then we'll see Pendleton and Rich with 10 tackles each.
I believe the defense plays well enough to win. I think we'll see something around a 31-20 score, in favor of BYU. If Air Force gets it going early and gets 14-17 points by halftime, BYU is in trouble. If they are sitting around 7 to 10, BYU fans can watch a little less nervously.
This is definitely one of the games I look forward to the most in the MWC season. I will miss it when BYU becomes independent. I am sad that it came so early this year, it just feels more like an October game to me. BYU has dominated the win column in the series, but there have been some good, close, hard-fought games over the years. I expect a similar result today: good game, anyone's game going into the fourth quarter, but BYU pulls it out, 31-20.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
UNLV Changed the Utes' Fortunes
It was a warm, late-night, late-September game in Las Vegas in 2007. UNLV entered the game on an 11-game losing streak to the Utah Utes (and has lost 2 straight, soon to be 3, since). Both teams were 1-2 coming in, but one had some promise and the other not so much. On that night, however, the less-promising UNLV Rebels and Frank "the Tank" Summers ran wild over, through, and around the Utah defense. The final score was 27-0, and it sure seemed like it could have been worse. After the game, UNLV players joked about the weak, scared-to-tackle Utah defense. This was from the same UNLV team that lost 8-straight to end that season. It was, quite frankly, the absolute worst game in the Kyle Whittingham era.
However, that game and that (lack of) effort sparked the biggest turnaround that I have seen in college football. After being mocked by an opponent (and I'm sure being yelled at thoroughly and repeatedly by their coaching staff), the Utah Utes have gone on the greatest stretch in the history of their football program. The defense came together and said: never again. In the 36 games since that night, Utah's defense has only surrendered 20 points 14 times, and has given up 30 points only 4 times. They are also 32-4 over that time period, the greatest record in any 36-game stretch in their history (second best was 29-7). In the 45 weekly polls since that game, Utah has been ranked in at least one of the polls for 29 of those weeks, also a number unmatched in their history, and, again, it's not even that close of a second (I believe the second best is 17 in 2003-2004, and after that, you are looking at only 4 or 5 weeks over a 3-year period in the late 90's).
Since that night, Utah has EARNED an invitation to the Pac 10. Were it not for how they finished the 2007 season, the 2008 BCS season, and the 2009 10-win season, the course of conference realignment would be entirely different. Who knows if the Pac 10 would have even expanded to 12? Who knows if the Big XII would be stuck as the Big X (as a side note, I believe their future conference motto should be: X marks the spot)? It was not Urban Meyer's success that got Utah into the Pac 10. It certainly was not Kyle Whittingham's first 2.25 years. It all comes down to what happened since that late-night game at UNLV on September 22nd, 2007.
So now, Utah hosts the program that started it all. UNLV changed the course of Utah's football history for the absolute better. Without that taunting by the Tank, without that embarrassing number of missed tackles, and without that shutout (and huge upset) loss, the Utah program would probably still be the same Utah most of us grew up with: a quality basketball school with an occasionally not-bad football team, with a small, unenthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal was to beat BYU. Now it's a quality football school with an occasionally bad basketball team, with a growing, enthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal is to go to the Rose Bowl (or National Championship, but let's be realistic here...it will be a long time before the Pac 10 sends any team to the National Championship again, and it isn't likely to be the Utes the next time it happens). Playing BYU will be a nice addition to nine Pac 10 opponents and beating them will still hold a special place in their fans' hearts. Here's to you, UNLV Rebels.
However, that game and that (lack of) effort sparked the biggest turnaround that I have seen in college football. After being mocked by an opponent (and I'm sure being yelled at thoroughly and repeatedly by their coaching staff), the Utah Utes have gone on the greatest stretch in the history of their football program. The defense came together and said: never again. In the 36 games since that night, Utah's defense has only surrendered 20 points 14 times, and has given up 30 points only 4 times. They are also 32-4 over that time period, the greatest record in any 36-game stretch in their history (second best was 29-7). In the 45 weekly polls since that game, Utah has been ranked in at least one of the polls for 29 of those weeks, also a number unmatched in their history, and, again, it's not even that close of a second (I believe the second best is 17 in 2003-2004, and after that, you are looking at only 4 or 5 weeks over a 3-year period in the late 90's).
Since that night, Utah has EARNED an invitation to the Pac 10. Were it not for how they finished the 2007 season, the 2008 BCS season, and the 2009 10-win season, the course of conference realignment would be entirely different. Who knows if the Pac 10 would have even expanded to 12? Who knows if the Big XII would be stuck as the Big X (as a side note, I believe their future conference motto should be: X marks the spot)? It was not Urban Meyer's success that got Utah into the Pac 10. It certainly was not Kyle Whittingham's first 2.25 years. It all comes down to what happened since that late-night game at UNLV on September 22nd, 2007.
So now, Utah hosts the program that started it all. UNLV changed the course of Utah's football history for the absolute better. Without that taunting by the Tank, without that embarrassing number of missed tackles, and without that shutout (and huge upset) loss, the Utah program would probably still be the same Utah most of us grew up with: a quality basketball school with an occasionally not-bad football team, with a small, unenthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal was to beat BYU. Now it's a quality football school with an occasionally bad basketball team, with a growing, enthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal is to go to the Rose Bowl (or National Championship, but let's be realistic here...it will be a long time before the Pac 10 sends any team to the National Championship again, and it isn't likely to be the Utes the next time it happens). Playing BYU will be a nice addition to nine Pac 10 opponents and beating them will still hold a special place in their fans' hearts. Here's to you, UNLV Rebels.
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