BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Special Teams

The Kickers
I said going into the game, Tulsa had the more accomplished K.  Justin Sorensen made his field goal.  Kevin Fitzpatrick missed his.  That was the difference in a 3-point game.  Both went 3-3 on their XP attempts.  The kickers didn't really play a huge role in the game, but they ended up having a huge impact on the outcome.  Advantage: BYU.

The Punters
Kevin Fitzpatrick had a good day punting the ball.  He was able to keep JD Falslev from any major returns for the most part, as he mixed it up with high, spiraling kicks and low, line-drive ones.  He was well above his season average, kicking 50.9 yards/punt.  Riley Stephenson stole the show, however.  He continually pinned Tulsa inside the 20.  7 of his 8 points ended up inside the Tulsa 20-yard line.  Tulsa was only able to "return" one punt all day, and it led to a one-yard return and fumble that set up a BYU TD just before halftime.  Advantage: BYU.

Return Game
Tulsa didn't manage anything on punt returns at all.  They averaged a measly 17.6 yards/kickoff return.  BYU managed less on kickoff returns, thanks to some short kicks and good coverage by Tulsa.  Falslev had a couple of decent returns on punts.  Since Tulsa's fumble on a punt return just before halftime entirely changed the complexion of the game, it's tough to say they didn't lose this matchup, though BYU didn't do anything to win this battle.  If Tulsa fair catches the punt before halftime (or even just lets it bounce), Tulsa probably wins the game.  (We'll call this one) Advantage: NOT Tulsa.

BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Cougar D

Riley Nelson (aka Tiny Tim) is the hero of the Armed Forces Bowl, but if not for an outstanding effort by the defense, he never would have had a shot to make such a gutsy, successful call with time winding down.  Just looking at the statistics, BYU held Tulsa below its season average in every single category.  They gave up one 50-yard play, which they were going to do eventually, that eventually led to a score.  They gave up a long TD drive on the initial possession of the game.  They allowed three consecutive third and long conversions early in the fourth quarter which led to another Tulsa TD.  But beyond that, they were amazingly stout this game.

Field Position
BYU's D forced 5 three-and-outs in the first half.  They gave up only 54 yards on 10 of Tulsa's 14 possessions.  They continued to win give the offense good field position, including giving the offense the ball on the Tulsa side of the field twice.  When Tulsa got the ball in BYU territory, they forced a long field goal attempt after three straight tackles for loss, which Tulsa missed.  They stopped Tulsa three-and-out TWICE (on the same possession thanks to a special teams penalty) in the last 8 minutes of the game.  What they did to an explosive offense was pretty incredible.  BYU's Offense started, on average, at their 32-yard line.

Grounded
Tulsa just simply couldn't get anything going on the ground.  They ended up with 37 yards on 27 carries (8 of those yards came on backwards passes in the flat, BYU recorded 5 sacks for -25 yards, so really, it was 54 yards on 20 rushing attempts, which is still phenomenal).  Tulsa only had one rushing play over 10 yards.  They held Tulsa's leading rusher to half his usual rushing yardage and two yards/carry under his season average.  After GJ Kinne made the front seven whiff multiple times on the opening drive, he was not able to get out of their grasp for any significant yardage, he couldn't extend any plays with his feet, and he was running for his life as the pocket continually collapsed around him.

Secondary Not Horrible
Corby Eason got picked on.  On three long pass plays with him in coverage, he was 0 for 3, with two long passes completed and one penalty.  There were a couple of short throws given up, and would have been several more if Kinne had been more accurate with the ball, but there weren't people running free all over the field as has happened in the past against sophisticated passing attacks.  Junior Preston Hadley had two big plays, once tackling Trey Watts in the open field on third down and once coming on a blitz and sacking GJ Kinne to force a third and long.  Uale didn't blow any coverages, which showed a lot of improvement.  Sorensen had 9 tackles and a pass break-up, and his ability to down two kicks inside the 10-yard line were crucial to the field position battle.  With Eason and Uale the only two seniors in the back four, there is a bright future for this group, as bright as there ever is for a BYU secondary.

Defense Wins Championships, Or Bowl Games At Least
The defense could have quit.  BYU was down 14-3 and the Cougar offense went three and out.  The defense stepped up and forced a Tulsa punt.  BYU took the field again and threw an interception, giving Tulsa the ball at midfield.  The defense forced a Tulsa punt.  In the second half, trailing 14-10, Nelson threw a pick and a big return brought the ball to the BYU 35.  Tulsa immediately moved into the red zone.  Three straight tackles for loss, including two by Kyle Van Noy, one a sack, BYU's D forced a long field goal attempt, that Tulsa missed (which was the difference in the game).  Then again, as I highlighted earlier, trailing 21-17, they forced a three and punt.  After a penalty on the punt gave Tulsa a first down, they forced ANOTHER three and punt.  Another first down would have doomed the Cougars, who only had one timeout remaining.  The D stepped up.  Again, Tiny Tim and Cody Hoffman made the game-winning play, but the BYU D won this game for the Cougars.

BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Cougar O

BYU overcame itself to pull out another thrilling come from behind win, edging Tulsa 24-21.  After the Ole Miss game, which I attended with my brother and sister, there was a similar feeling of exhiliration.  After that initial excitement died down, though, one was left asking questions about the poor play, which is the exact feeling BYU fans probably are experiencing now.  BYU's offense looked downright pathetic for most of the game.

Nelson = Heaps?
Nelson looked a lot more like Heaps today than he ever has before.  In his effort to prove he can be a pocket passer, he looked like a tentative QB with a so-so arm.  He shied away from contact.  He moved left when he should have moved right, stepped back when he should have stepped up, and managed to put himself in the path of blitzing LBs over and over again.  The play-calling was very similar to a Heaps game: pass on first down (incomplete), run on second down (2-yard gain), and being in a tough passing situation on third down.  With the exception of about two drives, it looked like the same offense from the first three games of the season all over again.  However, when Tebow Time arrived, Tiny Tim stepped his game up.  He deserves some props for stepping up on 3rd and 4th downs on the final drive, and the fake spike call was gutsy.  The throw was perfect.

Line Got Worked...Again
As I pointed out in a post earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/thursday-thoughts-9152011.html) and described in my preview of BYU's O against Tulsa's D, BYU continues to struggle to block any half-decent front seven.  Tulsa had some size, some speed, and some athleticism, but if BYU aspires to be a BCS contender, that type of performance will not get them there.  BYU has to play at Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech next season.  With this kind of offensive line play, that is, at best, a 1-3 record.  Nelson was continually harrassed on passing plays.  The RBs couldn't find holes to hit.  Michael Alisa couldn't have found holes to hit either, it wasn't just that Quezada, Kariya, and DiLuigi are bad runners.  The O-Line was bad, bad, bad: 2.5 yards per rush and 5 sacks allowed against, at best, an above average front seven.  Rarely did Tulsa even put 8 in the box, so it wasn't even a numbers game, it was a "we can't block you" game.

Just Hit The Hole Already
The RBs and Riley Nelson all seemed indecisive in running the ball.  They tried to juke to gain extra yards, but the Tulsa pursuit was fast, and the jukes completely ineffective.  Finally, in the fourth quarter, they gave it to Kariya who just took the yards available to him.  He didn't break any big gains, but he got 4 yards when only 3 were there to be had.  DiLuigi and Nelson continued to try to dance around and only got 1 yard when 3 were there to be had.  Nelson danced a lot while trying to throw, and it yielded him a 43% completion percentage.

Separate Yourself From The Crowd
The WRs weren't getting open, with the exception of Hoffman.  Apo didn't catch a single ball b/c Apo couldn't get any separation.  Falslev did nothing after a few early grabs.  The entire offense was a little off.  This wasn't a rust or timing issue, b/c that will settle down after a quarter, or a half, or, one would expect, 3.5 quarters.  The WRs and TEs weren't open, when they were Nelson missed them or they didn't want the ball badly enough.  Either way, excluding Hoffman, this was a pathetic performance by this group too!  That was a theme for the offense today.

Bad-Looking Stats
8-21 on third down, less than 350 total yards, no running plays over 15 yards, only three passing plays over 20 yards, 2 turnovers, and 5 sacks.  None of those are great numbers.  Perhaps I have my expectations set too high, perhaps the easy November schedule made me forget that it isn't easy to put up points.  Either way, I am looking ahead to next season, and I think BYU has a lot of improving to do.  As Regular Tim and the Broncos have learned, comebacks are only possible when the game is close.  Tiny Tim would do well to perform the first 3.5 quarters too to keep themselves in games against quality competition.  Now, one might say they got the only stat that counts: scoreboard.  Yes, thanks MOSTLY to the defense, they won the stat that matters most.

BYU-Tulsa, the Prediction

Coming into Thursday, I had convinced myself of two BYU 8-point wins on Thursday at St. Mary's and then Friday against Tulsa.  Since BYU hoops lost by 16 to the Gaels, I may have to rethink my strategy.  A lot of folks have been playing this up as a potential shoot-out, though probably more in line with Toledo-Air Force than Baylor-Washington.  However, I tend to disagree and think it will be a much more mild game than that.  Yes, I realize that there are two somewhat prolific offenses taking the field.  In such a game, I would tend to favor the team with the better defense.  However, as Baylor and Washington taught us: the better offensive team can have its way just as easily as the better defensive team.  Washington had a better D than Baylor, but that didn't mean they could get a stop!

This is a game that could be close early and hinge on one or two plays and resulting momentum changes.  Who makes them, and when, will be crucial.  BYU's D needs to get off the field on third down.  They need to limit the number of plays Tulsa gets to run, to prevent "the big one" that could swing momentum and the game in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.

No matter how great BYU's D plays, as I mentioned in a prior article, I believe Tulsa gets off on or two big plays for TDs, I believe that is inevitable.  The key becomes turnovers and drives.  If BYU doesn't turn it over, they win.  If Tulsa finds a way to sustain drives and get points on long scoring drives, they win.  Tulsa has the better O, BYU the better D.  I like Riley Nelson's progression over the course of the season, and I believe his ability to convert on third down and his will to get in the end zone decide this game.  I look to see an emotional display of football from him early in the game.  His team will follow his lead, so he'd better come out gangbusters or BYU could get stomped.

This really is a game that could play out any of four ways: blowout win for either team or close win for either team.  Both sides are more than capable of any of those four.  Both teams have been blown out, both teams have blown teams out, and both have won close games.  (BYU has lost close games though, where Tulsa has not)

In the end, I'm sticking with that 8-point Cougar win.  Riley Nelson's passion, along with Kyle Van Noy's play-making ability on defense, propels BYU to a victory over Tulsa, BYU 28, Tulsa 20.

BYU's O vs. Tulsa's D

The Run Game
BYU has an average rushing attack, and it's outright mediocre when they face strong front 7s.  Tulsa has a decent front 7, maybe not quite good enough to make the "strong" category.  Tulsa's front 7 is a little better than what BYU saw against Ole Miss (91 yards), Utah State (200), and Hawaii (167).  However, RB Michael Alisa, BYU's most powerful runner, is questionable for the game.  BYU probably needs to see about 150 yards or more on the ground in this game, which isn't that big of a stretch against a team that gives up 131 yards.

I must stress again: BYU racks up a lot of rushing yards against bad front sevens.  Tulsa's isn't great, but it is decent.  They aren't undersized or unathletic.  BYU's Offensive Line should take it as a personal challenge to get 150 yards on the ground.  I think they need it to prove to BYU fans that they can compete physically with solid opponents.  BYU lost to 3 of 4 bowl opponents.  While this front seven is NOT in the category of Texas (43 yards), Utah (11), or TCU (139), it's probably the next best one they'll face.  As a BYU fan, I'm tired of watching the OL get worked by every half-decent front seven.  Dominate this game!  Give us something to look forward to next year.

Passing Attack
Tulsa is ranked 118th against the pass.  Part of that was the non-conference schedule and the pass-happy nature of the Conference USA teams.  However, on the flip side, only 2 other CUSA teams are ranked in the bottom 20 of college football near Tulsa.  So clearly, Tulsa's secondary has seen a lot of great offenses, but they gave up an even greater amount of yards.  Tulsa gives up 289 yards/game through the air.  BYU doesn't need 289 (though Nelson has shown he CAN get yards through the air in bunches, and BYU averages 245 on the season), but they'll need to complete a high % of passes to sustain drives and keep Tulsa's big plays on the sidelines.

Third Downs
BYU has done a great job sustaining drives, particularly since Riley Nelson took over.  In games where Nelson started, BYU is converting 64.1% on third down.  Georgia Tech leads the nation at 54.9%, i.e. the Nelson-led BYU offense blows the next best team in the nation out of the water.  For the season, combined with Heaps' crappy stats, BYU is 53%, which is still good enough for third in the nation.  Tulsa is 83rd in the nation in stopping opponents on 3rd down.  Again, they played 4 top 20 teams, so that is somewhat forgivable.  But they also played 3 or 4 bottom 20 teams too.

Red Zone
BYU's O has struggled a bit in the red zone, as they sit at 82nd in the nation in red zone possessions being converted into points.  Part of that is Justin Sorensen's inaccuracies as a field goal kicker, part of that is BYU going for it on fourth down a lot because of those inaccuracies, and part of that was Heaps' amazing ability to turn the ball over in the red zone.  Tulsa, on the other hand, in 29th in Red Zone D.  Did the rest help Sorensen?  Will Riley Nelson be more comfortable on fourth downs in the red zone?  Can BYU hang on to the ball in the red zone?  BYU will quite possibly need all 3 of those things to be "fixed" for them.

Time of Possession
The final stat I'll present: Time of Possession.  BYU's surging rushing attack, Riley Nelson's 61% completion percentage, and BYU's stout defense place BYU 28th in the country in Time of Possession.  Tulsa sits at 113th.  With the rust associated with the long layoff, with finals having come and gone, with bowl activities going on all week, and with the recent holiday food, teams are not in the same physical shape they were in earlier in the season.  Players get tired.  Time of possession could be a huge thing in this game.  BYU has a chance to hold that edge, if Quezada and DiLuigi can fill the void left by an ailing Alisa.

'Warm' WCC Welcome for BYU

I had the chance last year to meet some West Coast Conference fans in Denver who were here for the NCAA Tournament.  They said two things to me: welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking.  St. Mary's had some home-cooking in both senses of the word tonight.  The game was close, St. Mary's gets three or four very beneficial calls in a row.  St. Mary's takes advantage by hitting big baskets.  BYU loses its cool, makes some mistakes to compound the bad officiating, and St. Mary's makes some more baskets.  The lead got up to 20 before St. Mary's cooled off a bit and the refs started making horrible calls THE OTHER WAY.  BYU cuts it to 10, the refs jump back on the Gaels bandwagon, and the lead balloons to 19 again as St. Mary's shoots lights out.

To highlight the shooting ability of St. Mary's tonight, here are some examples.  Rob Jones is a 57% foul shooter: he goes 10 for 10 from the line.  Stephen Holt is 19% from 3 on the season: 4-6 on threes, scoring 21 total points, 13 more than his season average.  St. Mary's, on the season, shoots 47% from the field, 71% from the foul line, and 34% from three.  Tonight they go 54%, 80%, and 48%, respectively.  They got a lot of easy looks, but they hit a lot of shots with a hand in their face.

BYU's 2-3 zone will not work against St. Mary's.  BYU probably can't play them man-to-man either.  BYU played very frantic early on both on O and D.  They let the crowd get to them.  They let the poor officiating get to them (but did take advantage of a 5-minute stretch when the refs aided them).  Too many mistakes.  Too many defensive lapses.  Too much shooting by St. Mary's.  If BYU gets the same calls at home that St. Mary's did, gets the same hot shooting at home, and St. Mary's has an "average" night, BYU should have no problem dispatching them in the Marriott Center.

If the home-cooking is the same across the conference, BYU may struggle to win any road game.  St. Mary's hit everything.  It also helped that Abouo wasn't on the floor b/c of fouls, and Harrison WAS on the floor (he was a complete disaster in his few minutes on the court).  Carlino looked like it was his first road game the first 25 minutes.  There is reason for hope for a run by BYU still, except that this "lights out" shooting against BYU is becoming a prevalent theme.  It wasn't ALL wide open shots, there were a lot of contested shots made and shots hit even when BYU plays good D.  But, at some point, it has to become about BYU's D...

In the end, the foul count evened out somewhat (thanks to some generous "make-up" calls in the second half when St. Mary's was up 20), but BYU played most of the game with foul trouble and lost their aggressiveness on defense because of it.  Credit St. Mary's for taking advantage of every Cougar and referee mistake.  BYU made plenty of their own mistakes.  The refs didn't decide the outcome of the game, but they did call the game into a blowout.  It was a 2-point game in the first half when the calls starting going to the home team.  BYU had a chance to cut it to single digits in the second half until the refs had two successive bad calls against BYU that led to a 6-0 spurt by St. Mary's because the Gaels were nails shooting the rock.

Welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking.

BYU's D vs. Tulsa's O

BYU's Defense ranks in the top 30 in the four major defensive categories: pass D (28th), run D (23rd), total D (16th), and scoring D (23rd).  They are also 44th in turnovers (35th in INTs), 37th in 3rd down defense., and 12th in red zone defense.  The defense put up those numbers with the offense completely non-existent for a third of the season.

Tulsa's Offense looks somewhat similar to BYU's D statistically, in the top 40 in the major categories, including 23rd in scoring offense at 34 points/game.  Taking a closer look, the Golden Hurricane played four defenses that are statistically similar to BYU's.  UCF, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Houston all rank in the top 40 in those four categories.  Tulsa put up 24 against UCF, 21 against Boise State, 14 against Oklahoma, and 16 against Houston.

On the flip side, BYU's D put up their gaudy numbers against some pretty pathetic offenses.  TCU, Utah State, and Hawaii are the offenses most statistically similar to Tulsa.  BYU gave up 38 to TCU (I believe TCU is the most similar style-wise in that they are run-first, but still prolific in the passing game), 24 to Utah State, and 20 to Hawaii.

I know a lot has been made about the history of the Tulsa-BYU games getting a bit out of hand when it comes to total yardage and points scored, no more ridiculous than a 55-47 game the last time these two met.  However, BYU's D is more than capable of keeping Tulsa somewhat in check in terms of driving down the field.  Where BYU's D is vulnerable, and where Tulsa can exploit it, is in big plays.  Tulsa has 8 plays this season that have gone for over 50 yards, 3 on the ground and 5 through the air.  That's a LOT of big plays.  BYU has given up 7 plays over 50 yards this season.  50 yards is more than just a BIG play too.  20 yards is usually the cutoff for big plays.  50-yard plays are game-changers more than anything.

Tulsa has struggled to score in the red zone, BYU has done well in stopping teams in the red zone.  So for Tulsa to put up massive points on BYU, they'll need one or two of those game-changing 50+ yard plays.  Because of those variables, this game really could play out like either of Wednesday's bowl games: first one to 42 wins like Toledo or first one to 3 scores wins like Texas.  I trust Bronco's D to be mostly stout and not give up big play after big play, which should make this game more like Texas-Cal than Toledo-AFA, and should put Tulsa around the 20-24 point range.  Now whether that's low enough of a point total to win or not depends on BYU's O, and how many turnovers it has.

2011-2012 West Coast and Pac 12 Conference Hoops Predictions

West Coast
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. Saint Mary's
4. Santa Clara
5. San Francisco
6. Loyola Marymount
7. Pepperdine
8. Portland
9. San Diego

BYU certainly could challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I think there is too much unfamiliarity for the Cougars to hold off all of those lesser opponents on the road.  St. Mary's just hasn't reached that elite level yet.  Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Loyola have played well at home but they have been pathetic on the road and won't challenge the top three.  Pepperdine is the closest of the bottom three to getting out of the "cellar" group, but they lost to a couple of bad teams AT HOME already this year, so don't expect them to knock Loyola Marymount down.  Portland gets the nod over San Diego, in spite of their loss to Utah.

Pac 12
1. Arizona
2. California
3. Stanford
4. Oregon
5. UCLA
6. Oregon State
7. Washington
8. Washington State
9. Colorado
10. Arizona State
11. USC
12. Utah

Zona will be good.  Cal and Stanford really haven't been tested yet.  UCLA started slow but has come on of late.  Oregon gets the fourth spot over UCLA because the one and only head-to-head matchup comes at Oregon, which is a pretty tough place to play.  Spots 6-9 are really up for grabs.  Oregon State and CU only play once, and it's at CU.  The Washington's have both been a bit scrubby early in this season, but they have had too much recent success to expect them to fall too low.  Plus, they only play Cal and Stanford once, and they get those games at home, so I give them a slight nod over Colorado, who starts former Utah 6th man Carlon Brown.  CU probably starts off hot, but I think they'll fade a bit down the stretch.  I honestly don't know if Utah will win two Pac 12 games this season.  I think over the past three years they have had 9 players transfer out of the program.  The players they had weren't that good to begin with, so to downgrade from that AND move into a BCS conference (albeit one that is currently in a worse state the MWC) is not a good combination.

BYU-Tulsa Special Teams Preview

Here is a quick look at the special teams numbers.

Punters
Riley Stephenson vs. Cole Way
42.8 Average vs. 38.0
36.0 Net vs. 35.9
28% of Punts Returned vs. 29%
11.5 yards/return vs. 7.3
Long of 67 vs. Long of 51
6 TBs vs. 3 TBs

Kickers
Justin Sorensen vs. Kevin Fitzpatrick
58% vs. 88%
0/3 from 50+ vs. 3/3 from 50+
Long of 46 vs. Long of 52
45/45 XP vs. 48/50 XP

Punt Returns
22 returns for 231 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 yards/return for BYU
13 returns for 81 yards, no TDs, 6.2 yards/return for Tulsa

Kickoff Returners
Cody Hoffman vs. Trey Watts
33 returns for 838 yards vs. 17 returns for 408 yards
25.4 yards/return vs. 24
Each with 1 TD

Kickoff Return Defense
16 TBs in 71 kicks, 19.8 yards (30th), no TDs for BYU
21 TBs in 79 kicks, 21.0 yards, 1 TD for Tulsa

Analysis
Both teams have pretty obvious strengths and weaknesses in their special teams.  BYU's strengths are its return game and kickoff coverage.  But its weaknesses are field goals and punt coverage (part of that is an erratic punter).  Tulsa is sound in the kicking game and its coverage units.  However, its return game is a bit weak and their punter, while consistent, isn't really capable of flipping field position.  Typically, BYU is the consistent team and its opponents are up-and-down.  However, with Sorensen and Stephenson kicking and punting for BYU, you never know what you're going to get.  Tulsa is definitely more consistent in its special teams.  If BYU is "up" then it's a major advantage for them.  However, if they are down, this game could get ugly in a hurry.

Pac 12/Big Ten Challenge and BYU

For those of you that didn't hear, the Pac 12 and Big Ten have hammered out a deal that I am a really big fan of: making Big Ten teams actually play somebody in the non-conference, and even occasionally playing a road game.  Though it could have very negative consequences for BYU football.  The deal would mean that each Pac 12 team would play one Big Ten team in the non-conference schedule, though when EXACTLY teams will start doing it is undecided, though it will be in place no later than 2017.  Obviously, the first item that comes to the forefront for BYU fans is what this means for the Utah game.  Utah already plays 9 conference games each year.  This adds a 10th game that they MUST play, leaving them with just two other games on the schedule.  The Utes always open with an FCS/I-AA school.  So the Utes would have to commit that last game to BYU every year for the foreseeable future?  I'm not sure that happens.  Even if Utah drops the annual FCS opponent, I don't believe they keep the rivalry alive.  They need some guaranteed wins (and while Ute fans will wittily point out that 54-10 means a guaranteed win, Bronco will continue to be about .500 against the Utes) on the schedule.  Honestly, I don't think there is a better time to cut ties with the rivalry, as both teams are currently in great position to survive, and even thrive, without it.

Even above and beyond the rivalry game with Utah, this could hurt BYU in three ways.  First, for BYU to maintain a competitive schedule, they will need 2-3 Pac 12 games each season.  The other Pac 12 schools will run into the same problem that Utah has.  They only have two non-conference games, their other 10 games are already against BCS conference opponents.  They won't want to add a school like BYU.  While Oregon State and Washington State aren't exactly juggernauts, a win over them provides a bigger boost than San Jose State and New Mexico State.

I think the second way it impacts BYU is the added pressure it puts on Notre Dame to join a conference.  The Big Ten will have adopted a 9-game conference schedule by the time this gets underway.  On an annual basis, Notre Dame gets at least five games against Pac 12 and Big Ten opponents.  If they can't continue to schedule 5-6 games against those two conferences, the pressure only mounts for them to join a conference.  Notre Dame was able to stay independent when others failed (see Florida State and Penn State) b/c of their TV deal with NBC, but with the monstrous deals these conferences are getting, the money has all but evened out.  If Notre Dame does fold and join, there is no shortage of suitors.  And if they join a conference, can BYU realistically stay Independent?  [Their list of suitors isn't very attractive, since it's pretty much just the WAC.]  BYU might also lose the ability to schedule Notre Dame as well.

Third, what happens if other conferences do the same thing?  Say the ACC and SEC combine forces.  The Big XII and Big East do so as well.  Where is BYU going to get quality opponents?  The answer is they aren't.  BYU would probably never play a ranked team again.  And even if they did, they'd never get that opponent at home.  Now, I believe this could be the first step towards a super-division that I have long been a proponent of.  Whether it does lead to that or not, I have no clue.  But I do know that at some point the music is going to stop.  And as a BYU fan, I hope the Cougars are not the only one left without a chair when it does.

BYU-St. Mary's Preview, 12/29/2011

The much-anticipated start of West Coast Conference play has now arrived for the Cougars.  BYU travels to St. Mary's to take on the Gaels.  It is kind of a dichotomy of styles, one that probably favors the home team, especially considering BYU's woes away from home.  BYU likes to get out and run in transition, while St. Mary's prefers the halfcourt sets.  Fast vs. Slow.  I am interested to see how those two things coexist at McKeon Pavilion.

BYU's Advantage
The Cougars should be able to control the glass against the Gaels.  That is by far, I believe, their biggest advantage.  St Mary's only has one player taking down more than 5 boards per game, 6'6" Senior Forward Rob Jones.  He will most likely be Hartsock's matchup most of the game, which is a matchup BYU has to like on both ends of the court.  If Jones is neutralized by Hartsock, then Davies, Abouo, and Zylstra should be able to clean up the rest of the boards.

At home, I anticipate that the Gaels will limit BYU's transition opportunities.  BYU also has been woefully pathetic at shooting from the outside away from the Marriott Center, so they'll need an assertive Brandon Davies, and Hartsock continuing his recent hot streak couldn't hurt either.  Away from home, BYU averages just 70.2 points/game (61.5 ppg in true road games compared to 86.6 ppg at home).  BYU must turn its advantage on the glass into second chance points and fast breaks.

St. Mary's Advantage
The Gaels offense is much more comfortable in the halfcourt set than BYU's defense is.  St. Mary's would prefer a slow pace and will try to beat BYU in the halfcourt.  With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to do that.  The Gael's shoot about 40% from three at home, compared to BYU's 29% on the road.  If they can slow the game down and hit threes in the halfcourt, there won't be any rebounds for BYU to get.  BYU doesn't really have a lock down defender to keep St. Mary's out of the lane either, especially late in the shot clock.  And with that three-point shooting ability at home, they may not be able to afford to go to the zone either.

Other Items at Play
BYU's rotation will shrink decisively this game.  I think Coach Rose will likely only play 7 guys for any extended period of time.  With so many games played by the Cougars in so few days, BYU needs to put the game away early so that doesn't come back to bite them.

St. Mary's hasn't really played a big-time opponent at home yet this season (I'm still not sold on Northern Iowa).  How will the environment impact their two young guards?  Of course, the same could be said on the flip-side for BYU.  Carlino has never played a road game in college, Cusick is a former walk-on (and former Ute), and I'm not sure Harrison cracks that top 7 that will see the floor.  Now Carlino and Cusick both played well in a big-time environment against Baylor, but the crowd was for them, not against.  And McKeon Pavilion is more like a high school gym than the college ones BYU has been used to.  The crowd is right on top of you, in your face, and the sound echoes in such tight quarters.  Its 3,500 fans seem a lot more like 13,500.  Having watched Gonzaga roll into town the past few years: it can be a tough place to play.

Prediction
I really feel like this game plays well for St. Mary's at home.  BYU can't outscore them in the halfcourt for 40 minutes.  BYU just doesn't seem to shoot well on the road.  St. Mary's has the revenge factor as Jimmer hit a three at the buzzer to win the San Padre Island Tourney against the Gaels last season.  St. Mary's should be able to hit shots against a BYU defense that has seen some high percentages against it this year.  Call it a hunch, or call me a homer, though, I really feel BYU should handle the Gaels with relative ease even though I think the analysis would give the game to St. Mary's.  I could see this going a lot like the Baylor game for BYU, but without the two big surges that cost BYU the game.  BYU obviously wants to get this game into the high 70's or higher as they have a lot more firepower than the Gaels, but I think if they can get to 70, they should have a good chance.  BYU 72, St. Mary's 64.

Good Week for BYU Sports

BYU fans have a good deal to look forward to this week.  BYU commences West Coast Conference basketball on Thursday night at 9pm Mountain, with an ESPN2 broadcast of their conference opener at St. Mary's.  BYU football then follows that up Friday morning with, in my opinion, one of its best bowl matchups in recent years against an 8-4 Tulsa team, whose four losses all came to teams that were in the top ten at the time (and all finished the season in the top 20).  Jake Heaps is officially gone, off to KU where he will sit for a year and learn Charlie Weis' system, and likely become the heir apparent to the starting job in 2013.  Jimmer Fredette is currently playing his NBA regular season debut, as I type, he is 3-4 with 6 points and a turnover (now, later in the game, Jimmer came back down to earth with several turnovers, misses, etc. though he did manage to get a handful of assists).

BYU Hoops is starting to "get it" I think.  They have a real good shot to reel off a lengthy winning streak over the next month.  They have won their last two and have nine straight "should wins" ahead of them before traveling to Virginia Tech.  I believe at St. Mary's is a game BYU can certainly win.  There may actually be more issues at Loyola Marymount than at St. Mary's, as the hype of that game won't be as great but the atmosphere may be every bit as intense.  I believe the WCC teams that BYU plays at home first (with the exception of Gonzaga) benefits them and they should take those on the road (really, I'm talking Santa Clara and San Francisco, which could have tripped BYU had the Cougars traveled to them before getting them at home).

The thing that I see with this team is that the offense, even when it isn't playing well, is putting up points still.  I felt BYU really had a tough time getting in rhythm, other than two 3-4 minute stretches, against UC-Santa Barbara, but when the final buzzer went off, they found themselves with 89 points.  The half-court offense was a bit choppy, but they got enough points in transition, enough offensive rebounds to make it work.  BYU really has looked like an NCAA Tournament team the past two weeks.  I know they lost to Baylor and allowed Buffalo and UCSB to hang somewhat close, but Baylor is going to probably win the Big XII, Buffalo is going to contend in the MAC, and if UCSB can find a way to outlast Long Beach State in the Big West, may very well be that 14/15 seed with a first round upset.  No shame there.

What I like about BYU right now is the contributions from everywhere, though some of the freshmen have started to taper off a bit.  I think it's almost a benefit for those guys to tweak an ankle, hurt an elbow, lose playing time to veterans at this point in the year.  It helps them gear up for the long stretch run of conference play.  Right now, Hartsock is on fire shooting the ball.  Davies and Abouo have done a good job on the glass.  Winder and Zylstra have each exploded and given opposing defenses something to think about.  Rogers should return mid-January which will give BYU another scoring option and some addition length in their zone D.  Right now, even guys who aren't contributing much scoring the ball can still eat up some minutes (Cusick, Harrison, and Sharpe) to give the starters a rest while grabbing rebounds, playing defense, and not chucking up crazy shots.

All in all, I like what I am seeing from this Cougar squad right now.  I'd like to see Davies continue to be assertive offensively.  He seems to be a guy who steps up in the big games, but isn't there in the others.  Hartsock's hot shooting can't continue, so BYU will need Davies to step up.  There isn't anyone else doing much on the inside.  Abouo's inside scoring ability has lessened of late.  I almost wonder if he is battling some nagging injury b/c he is not finishing as strong or playing nearly as aggressively offensively as he had been in the early part of the season.

Carlino really is Jimmer Jr.  I do not mean to say he is doing what Jimmer did last year (it'll be a long time before someone captures the college basketball world like that), but you can see he has the potential to be like Jimmer in his ability to score and do some amazing things off the dribble.  I am interested to see how this goes for him.  I like BYU's direction right now.  I think there is definitely reason for hope this season.  I am glad BYUTV and ESPN is carrying so many games.  This is an exciting offensive team!

BYU Hoops Mantra: Compete, Don't Beat

BYU got off to a slow first few minutes, had a bad last few minutes of the first half, and completely skipped a 5-minute stretch in the second half from about 12.5 to 7.5 minutes left.  Add that together, and it means they missed a golden opportunity to essentially lock themselves into an NCAA Tournament bid with an 86-83 loss to the #7 Baylor Bears.  [I think BYU is going to be sitting around a 10-11 seed, based on what I have seen from them and what the future schedule holds for them.  A win today could have vaulted them into single digit range, but now they remain on the bubble.]

They overcame the slow start and had a 13-point lead with about four minutes left in the half.  They overcame a poor last 3 minutes of the first half to get a 10-point edge early in the second half.  They nearly overcame that 5-minute lapse in play in the second half, cutting a 9-point deficit to just a single point with a minute to go.  Ultimately, there were five problems BYU had in the second half that cost them the game.

1) I'll just go ahead and get it out there first, since I know this is what BYU fans will latch onto: during the five-minute scoreless drought, they got no help from the officials.  Calls were missed entirely and bad calls were made.  BYU was getting whistled for fouls with minimal contact, balls were being called out of bounds on them that they didn't touch, and Baylor was getting away with a lot of contact on defense.  My KU fan co-worker informed me that Big XII refs have that kind of reputation when "their" teams hit the road.  It was bad, but that was far from the only issue.

2) Baylor's shooting,  Baylor got some open looks from three, but a lot of those threes in the second half were contested.  Baylor also hit a lot of tough mid-range jumpers and scored in the paint, even when BYU defended well.  Baylor just flat out scored when they had to.  In a lot of situations, BYU defended perfectly and Baylor came away with 2 or 3 points.  There was nothing they could do.

3) Turnovers.  Jimmer Junior (Matt Carlino) had some amazing shots and acrobatic moves.  But he had 4 turnovers, including one that sparked the Baylor second half run where he turned it over and fouled the Bear and another on a possession with under a minute to go when BYU had a chance to take the lead.  Abouo also had 5 turnovers on the night.  BYU turned it over at crucial times, BYU made unforced errors, and BYU didn't get nearly enough turnovers from Baylor in the second half.

4) Rebounding.  For the game, BYU held a decent edge in rebounding.  But in the second half, Baylor was aggressive on their offensive rebounding and ended up with 8 or 9 boards on that side of the ball, 4 of which came during their 5-minute run, and 1 of which extended the lead to 3 with 23 seconds to go after BYU got a stop.  The BYU bigs just looked tired.  And they were.  Hartsock, Davies, and Zylstra hardly sat out in the game.  Those three were the reason BYU was dominating the glass early in the game.  They didn't go get the ball, on offense or defense, in the second half.

5) Free Throws.  BYU typically shoots around 75%.  This team, this season, is at 70%, and against Baylor they were 60%.  75% would have given BYU 3 additional points.  I believe they also missed the front end in two 1-and-1 situations during the game, which is big b/c they don't even get to shoot the second one.

In a game against "the big boys" having all five of those things working against makes it tough to win.  There are SOME positives to take from the game, though I don't believe in moral victories.  BYU played one of the premier teams in the country to a virtual deadlock without their 6th man Stephen Rogers; and they did it on a day when their opponent shot lights out and had the refs in their pocket.  BYU can compete.  They outscored Baylor in the paint.  They had more second chance points, more points in transition, and more scoring from their bench than a top 10 team (and I think Baylor has a decent shot to stay in the top ten the rest of this season).  Jimmer's offense and Jackson's defense made BYU a great team last season.  This looks to be a really good team because it is a really good team.

I certainly feel better that BYU should be able to run their schedule pretty well.  I suspect St. Mary's and Gonzaga will give BYU trouble (both at home and on road), but BYU shouldn't lose more than four games the rest of the season.  BYU will not be challenged in the remaining December non-conference schedule.  Then they play everyone in WCC play twice.  They are likely to lose at Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (but again, they can compete with anyone and COULD win either of those), and possibly drop a game to one of those two at home.  They may drop another random conference road game as they are getting used to all of the new venues.  They also have a non-conference game in January at Va Tech that will be huge.  And who knows, maybe the sting from this game propels BYU to win some of the games they might otherwise have lost.  But let's just speak in historical terms and trends: BYU will go about 13-3 in conference play.

BYU would be right around 23-6 entering the West Coast Conference Tournament, where they will be either the two or three seed.  The 2 seed gets a DOUBLE bye, whereas the 3 only gets a single bye.  BYU would have more chances to get extra wins as a 3-seed, but obviously there is a better chance of winning it as a 2-seed.  Let's just say BYU is 24-7 after the conference tourney.  That SHOULD get them into the NCAA Tournament, but again, it's probably as an 11-seed if they get in as an at-large, and not the WCC automatic bid.  BYU's biggest problem is going to be lack of signature wins in non-conference play.

They'll have 5 or 6 shots at St. Mary's and Gonzaga in conference play and then they have the game at Va Tech.  So far, they are 0-3 in those potential signature non-conference wins.  With about 6 of those games left, they'll probably need to be at least 3-3 to feel "safe" in their resume.  If they miss the NCAA tournament, they can look right back at this game and know, this result was a big reason.  Non-conference wins matter, and they missed a big chance today in a game that was theirs to lose.  And lose it they did.

Carlino had some great moments today.  He is going to be a great player.  But I think this season, he is going to be frustrating to watch, as Jimmer was at times throughout his career for those of us that watched essentially every game of his four-year career.  His ability to score was incredible, including at least three where I literally thought he looked like a left-handed Jimmer.  As I mentioned earlier, he had the turnovers, that is going to be frustrating to watch, because most of them were unnecessary, and two of them were at crucial situations.  But he also took a few ill-advised shots, several of which were completely out of the flow of the offense.  I said before the game that BYU always competes in these games, and, when they don't have a Jimmer, they always fall short.  Jimmer Junior tonight showed that he has that potential, but he's not that guy yet.  But hey, it was his FIRST GAME in college!  I didn't play that well in my first intramural game in college (or any intramural game in college for that matter).

Top Ten Baylor Travels to Provo

Big, But Winnable, Test
Before the season started, I figured this game would be one of BYU's two biggest tests early in the year.  They lost by double digits to Wisconsin in the first one.  (I also figured BYU would lose to Utah State, but I didn't see it as a test, really.  The first game of the year was going to be tough regardless, with all of the new faces around Provo this season.)  But I always thought Baylor was a winnable game for BYU.  However, that was before Baylor ran off to an undefeated start and top ten ranking.  Have my feelings changed about this game?  No.  BYU could win this game.

Baylor Untested
Baylor is one of 8 undefeated teams left in college basketball.  6 of the 8 teams are ranked in the top 35 in RPI (which is a combination of record and strength of schedule), and 7 of the 8 are in the top 50.  Baylor is number 64.  Translation: Baylor hasn't played anybody.  They have played 1 road game vs. 7 home games.  They have played only two teams that will have ANY consideration to make the NCAA Tournament (and I don't really think either SDSU or Northwestern has much shot at an at-large NCAA Tourney berth).  There are probably 40-50 teams in college basketball that would be 8-0 with Baylor's schedule, including BYU, in my opinion.  The game at BYU is the biggest test Baylor will have in non-conference play (though they have a home game against St. Mary's which may prove to be a bigger one, except that it's at home vs. on the road).  With the state of the Big XII right now, excluding two games against Kansas and the games at K-State/Mizzou, this may be Baylor's biggest test all season.

Quick Look at 2011-2012 Cougars
BYU has a nice mix of talent and experience.  They bring solid inside presence and outside scoring ability.  They rebound, they defend, they get out in transition.  They play fast, and they do it with attitude at altitude, in front of 22,000+ fans.  If Davies and Hartsock are working inside, the guards are hitting threes outside, Abouo is penetrating, and the team is running, they are hard to stop.  And they can get the crowd in the game.  With a nice mix of zone and man-to-man, their defense can cause problems for teams that prefer half-court sets.

No More Mr. Rogers
Stephen Rogers, experienced wing man, has been declared out for the game.  His presence will be missed.  He has played in front of bigs crowd and hit big shots against in big games.  Hartsock and Abouo are the only other Cougars that can say that, but they aren't nearly as accurate as Rogers.  While he isn't a great defender by any means, he does give some length on the side of BYU's 2-3 zone that can't be replaced.

Why Baylor Will Win
Rebounding.  When BYU faces up against top tier teams, the biggest struggle for BYU is not getting stops, it's keeping teams stopped.  Baylor is a great offensive rebounding team, averaging over 11 offensive rebounds/game, and BYU gives up 10 offensive rebounds/game.  Look out for that.  The other thing to consider is the atmosphere: BYU is bringing a sellout crowd.  However, for a lot of BYU's younger players, this is our their first rodeo in that type of game.  Does the energy get to the young Cougars?  I think it might.  We might see an uncharacteristic number of airballs early in the game from the young bucks.  BYU will play 4-5 freshmen tonight.  Baylor will counter with only one seeing significant minutes.  Most of Baylor's go-to players have played in tough venues before and will be less rattled by the energy than the young Cougars.

Why BYU Will Win
They have 22,000 rabid fans backing them up, including one of the top 10 student sections in America.  Both teams like to run, but BYU has the altitude advantage.  While Baylor is busy sucking wind, BYU will be able to get to the offensive glass with Abouo, Davies, and Hartsock.  If PJIII picks up early fouls against Davies, Hartsock, or a driving Abouo, can Baylor put up enough points to beat the Cougars?  If Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip (their sharp-shooters) can't find their legs at 4,200 feet and hit threes at a ridiculous 60% and 40% ratio, respectively, can PJIII carry the load all by himself inside?  What happens if they aren't hitting threes AND PJIII has foul trouble?  They could get blown out.  BYU has more size inside than Baylor has seen and certainly more scoring ability down there.  Baylor digs a deep hole that they don't have the wind to come back from.  It is certainly within the realm of possibilities.  Better, deeper teams have come into Provo and left with an L than this Baylor team.

Mo Predicts
This is a winnable game for BYU.  However, I think their lack of experience costs them early in this game.  I think any early hole will be impossible for BYU to overcome, and they have a tendency for slow starts early this year.  Carlino will be playing in his first game as a Cougar (though I'd be surprised if he played more than 10-15 minutes), which could disrupt the flow of the offense, which has really struggled already in 3 games thus far this season, including the most recent game at Utah.  It's a big game, and without a Jimmer on the floor, I think this becomes that typical BYU team that competes with, but doesn't beat, really good teams.  Baylor is really good.  BYU is good, better than I thought they would be at this point.  Baylor 76, BYU 68.

Final Notes on Heaps

I really am sad to see Heaps go.  I thought he had the potential to be great both on the field and off.  He was a great ambassador for BYU football.  He obviously underperformed this year, relative to expectations.  I wish he would have taken the redshirt next year, and returned for 2013 and 2014.  I really do believe that would have been the "best" course of action (from the outside, obviously I  don't know his reasons any more than you all do).  Perhaps the thought of redshirting seemed more intolerable than having to sit out a year for transfer restrictions.  Though it essentially has the same end result: not playing in 2012.

Personally, this is the problem that I see with his early struggles and lack of development: he didn't have a veteran QB to show him how it's done.  It took Beck two years to figure it out on his own.  Max Hall spent a year under Beck.  Heaps came in and had nobody to look up to.  Doman can only spend a limited number of hours with Heaps a week, so Heaps either has to know how to prepare for a college football season already, or have a vet show him.  He had no vet and obviously didn't know.  Perhaps promoting Doman to OC was a little premature and distracted him from really helping Jake improve on the few hours they COULD have spent together...

I do applaud him for the timing of it, however.  Since most practices prior to bowl games are spent developing younger players, now Heaps' reps can go to James Lark and Jason Munns.  I think it is better for the team for him to depart now.  Some people have trashed him for "quitting" on the team, but he did the best thing for the team by letting them move on and have extra practices to do so.  Those are probably the same people who jumped all over him for not having a good start to the year.  That was certainly wisdom and graciousness on his part.  I don't think he holds any ill-will towards BYU.  I, personally, don't hold any for him.  I don't necessarily wish him great success elsewhere, particularly if it comes at BYU's expense, but I hope he is happy with his decision in the end.  I think, ultimately, he will probably regret the decision.

Like Adam pointed out and many others have, and not just with BYU QBs: transfer QBs rarely succeed at their new schools.  Russell Wilson is the only major QB I can think of that transferred recently and had better success at their new school than the old one.  Of the BYU QBs that have transferred in the last decade, I believe there were three that made the "85-man roster" and transferred, only Ben Olson was named a long-term starter at another Division I-A program (UCLA, with disastrous results).  I believe Jacob Bower got one or two starts at Tulsa b/c of injury.  Cade Cooper never matriculated to a I-A program.  I realize that's a small sample-size, but 0-3 thus far is somewhat telling.

Anyway, we'll find out within the next two weeks where Heaps ends up, and I can tell you all about whether he is a fit or not.  Boise State would be an interesting choice, but it didn't make his cut.  He is in Pac 12-only mode.  He's not a bad fit for most Pac 12 offenses.  Cal wouldn't surprise me: they did turn out Aaron Rodgers and they have a less than stable QB situation right now, though projecting out to 2013 is a bit tougher since they will likely have an incumbent entering his third year at QB in 2013  Why would USC want him?  Washington has a stable of young, talented QBs already.  I am not sure he will be able to handle the Leach system at Washington State, and, even if he can, it won't help his NFL prospects, which I think his decision was partially based on.  Leach's QBs tend to put up video game numbers in college but don't exactly go on to stellar NFL careers...they are written off as "system QBs".

Digestion

So now that we have had some time to digest the weekends' events, I thought I'd do a quick follow-up.  I told my buddy on Sunday night that, this week after the BCS disaster, we'd either see Boise State join the Big East or Chris Petersen more seriously entertaining offers from BCS schools.  As it turns out, Boise State is joining the Big East.  I am sure the decision was already made, but I am sure if they needed final OK from Chris Petersen, he gave it to them on Monday.  The writing was on the wall.  For the second straight year, his 11-1 top 10 squad did not get a sniff of the BCS, while an 8-4 and 9-3 Big East Champion got in, no questions asked.

I think a couple of teams have legitimate gripes with how it turned out.  How did Va Tech and Michigan both get in over Kansas State?  People talk so much about the SEC, but the Big XII was amazingly deep this season.  Kansas was the only gimme win in the conference this year.  8 teams are going to bowl games out of ten teams.  Texas Tech, who finished ninth, won in Norman, something no one had done in 6 years.  Iowa State gave everybody a tough time at home, including beating OK State.  The 6th best team in the conference was Texas which is still Texas, even on a down year, and the 7th best has top 20 talent (A&M just never recovered mentally from a few early season fourth quarter collapses).  Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Missouri are all very good teams.  OK State was great.  Yet, the mediocre Big Ten and ACC BOTH got two teams in the BCS, while the Big XII only got one.

Michigan got in, which played 8 home games and whose biggest win was at home against Nebraska.  Other big wins: Notre Dame and San Diego State (who finished FOURTH in the MWC).  Kansas State won AT Miami and Texas.  They beat Baylor and Missouri.  I think those four wins are better than ANY of Michigan's wins (maybe Nebraska trumps Missouri, but I just can't take Nebraska seriously: have you seen Martinez try to throw the ball?).  And Virginia Tech lost TWO games by 3 TDs or more.  Best win: at Georgia Tech.  And let's be realistic about it: that was their ONLY "good" win.  K-State can probably throw down 5 wins better than that.  There is no logical explanation as to why K-State, or Baylor, or ANY 2nd Big XII Team, should have been left out over the two picks the Sugar Bowl made.  I do like the Arkansas-Kansas State matchup though.  That IS a BCS game as far as I am concerned.  That is a must see game.  Michigan-Va Tech is not.  Shame on the Sugar for selling out.  Again, I call for a boycott of the Sugar Bowl.

That's jacked up.  Why have polls if they don't matter at all?  Everyone vote for their top 3 or 4 so we can determine 1-2 and just forget the rest of the nonsense.  Because it is just that: nonsense.  The 7th and 8th ranked teams in the country can't get slotted for bowls that are supposed to have the 10 best teams in them?

Back to my original point: it's messed up and Boise State or Chris Petersen was going to make a move sooner rather than later.  Boise State is doing what the others figured out a long time ago: if you can't beat them, join them.  The part that's messed up about it: on the field, Boise continues to beat them yet still can't get ahead.  Now they just get to do it in conference games.  Good for them on the jump to the Big East.  The move should happen in 2013, allowing them to rebuild next year in an up-in-the-air MWC and get back on top their first year in the Big East.  Good luck to them!

Bowls, Heaps, and Tulsa

National Championship, Again.
As usual, the BCS messed up again.  Alabama gets ANOTHER shot at LSU in what is bound to be another "classic" defensive battle, i.e. offensive struggle.  I sure would have loved to see OK State's high-octane offense against LSU's high-octane defense.  Instead, we get two great defenses against two static offenses.  It's the exact opposite of last year's title game!

Those Left Behind
If that were the lone error of the BCS this season, perhaps we could excuse it.  However, the Sugar Bowl decided to exclude a second Big XII team or ANY non-BCS team and grab Michigan and a second ACC team (which is unheard of, since they are something like 2-10 in BCS games).  Boise State got hosed.  Kansas State was overrated, but no more so than Michigan.  TCU got a bit of a screw job as well, not moving up in the BCS standings in spite of several losses ahead of them in the final week of the season.  Instead, the Sugar Bowl, which is really supposed to be the granddaddy of all BCS games, no offense Rose Bowl, gives us a matchup of two non-top ten teams, both selected as at-large bids.  Now, I have no problem with Fiesta, Rose, or Orange.  Fiesta got a great matchup, thanks to the stupidity of the Sugar Bowl.  The Rose got what it is supposed to get with Pac 12 and Big Ten champs.  Orange got its ACC champ and the last remaining selection, so that's more of a BCS system problem than that actual bowl's problem.  The Big East stinks, and they got stuck with West Virginia and Clemson.

Other Errors
Stanford received the only top ten at-large bid.  Alabama's was an automatic bid as the #2 team in the country.  There were four top ten teams that didn't make a BCS game this season.  There were four teams not in the top ten that did, two of them by at-large consideration.  How is a system that rewards a Big Ten team that didn't win its division but not an MWC champion, or second place team ranked 4 spots higher, fair?  I don't favor a large playoff system.  But it sure would be nice to see Stanford-LSU, Bama-OK State, with the winners facing off a week later.  After those games are played, I'd be fine to see LSU-Bama if that's how it turned out.

This was all about money for the BCS.  The only way to enact change is to enact large-scale boycotts of certain BCS games.  I start with the national championship game, but I will certainly not be watching a Virginia Tech-Michigan Sugar Bowl.  That would have made a great Capital One Bowl.  Instead, we get a crummy Sugar Bowl, a crummy Vegas Bowl, and a worse Poinsettia Bowl.  Boise gets nobody in Vegas.  TCU gets nobodier in San Diego.  This might be the straw that broke the camel's back: either Boise goes to the Big East, or Chris Petersen may finally take one of those jobs elsewhere.  He certainly was vocal today, and rightfully so.  Three times in his coaching career he has finished in the top ten without a BCS bid, including a season in which he was undefeated.

Fraud
Jake Heaps was thrown into the fire as a freshman.  But the real adversity came his sophomore year.  After recruiting others to come to BYU and learn and grow into a national championship contender (his words, not mine), he loses his starting job and he high-tails it out of there.  I am sure there are other considerations of which we fans are not aware, but it sure seems like he is not a BYU QB.  Team first is what BYU is all about.  It seems like Heaps put himself and his future ahead of the team.  Transferring is no different from taking a redshirt year.  He will not play in 2012.  He may start somewhere in 2013, but in a new locker room, with a new group of guys, playing in a new system, etc.  I'd like to wish him well.  He seems like a good kid.  I don't wish him ill, by any means, but I say good riddance.

Let's compare Kyle Van Noy's situation to Jake Heaps.  KVN gets a DUI, Bronco makes him wait a year to join the team.  He waits it out even though he doesn't have to.  He could go anywhere else.  He wanted to be at BYU.  Jake Heaps has everything handed to him that he could want.  He gets benched b/c it's clear he isn't ready.  He leaves, without even knowing where he is going, he just wants out.  Which one do BYU fans want on their team?  I think this is one reason Bronco doesn't like the "top-flight" recruits as well (and not just b/c he can't get many of them: they just don't fit into his system of earning and perspiring and putting the team first.  I think Bronco would rather have 10 walk-ons than 10 five-star recruits).  I think in two years, after Riley Nelson graduates, Heaps will miss BYU a lot more than BYU will miss him.  He had a chance to start for what could be a very good BYU team in 2013, playing a very good schedule.  Instead, he will go elsewhere.  Someone will want him.  Someone good, inevitably.  He may do well, he may not.

I just wish he had the maturity to see the impact of his decision.  He would have all of the exposure he could possibly want.  He will play on a national stage, as an independent, against some big-time teams.  He may get that at Washington or wherever else he goes.  But I do believe BYU had a chance to do something special in 2013 with Heaps at the helm.  Now, whether it's Munns or some other QB not currently on the roster, BYU will still have that chance.  I am not sure Heaps will.  I am reminded of Corbin Louks who transferred away from Utah after dropping to third on the depth chart a few years back.  Well, he would have had a lot of games the past two season at Utah if he had stuck it out and perhaps led Utah to a Pac 12 South Title this season.  Instead, he finished his career playing on defense for a bad Nevada team.

Here Come the Hurricane
I was ecstatic to see BYU get the matchup I had hoped for (it would have been cool to see the bowl negotiate their way into Houston, but that was always a long shot).  Tulsa is a pretty good squad.  Most computers actually have Tulsa higher-rated than BYU, so, if nothing else, it should be a good test.  Tulsa doesn't have the same high-powered attack it had under Malzahn and Graham over the past 5 years, but it's still a decently good football team.  I anticipate a fun game, with points to be scored.  BYU should be the better team in the matchup, but it isn't a mismatch by any means.  Tulsa is certainly capable of beating anyone.  Tulsa's four losses on the season were to OK State, Oklahoma, Boise State, and Houston, all in the top 20.  In that regard, they are similar to BYU: beat all the bad teams they played, lost to all the good teams they played, they just happened to play better teams, and more of them.  Both teams' best wins came at home to 7-win teams.  These are similar squads, with similar results.  It should be a fun game.  I am excited about this one!

Bowl Blitz

Well, tonight we find out a lot of things.  Who plays in the title game?  Who gets the only real at-large BCS bid (Bama and Stanford have wrapped up 2 of the 3 available ones)?  And, most importantly of course, who is BYU's opponent in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl?

BCS Title Game
I think OK State has a legitimate chance to pass Bama, but there aren't many that agree with me.  They are EXTREMELY close in the USA Today Poll, and will probably be close in the Harris Poll as well.  The computers will favor OK State over Bama.  I think it will be VERY tight, and Bama PROBABLY gets the nod, but it wouldn't surprise me either way.  It will have a BIG impact on the rest of the BCS Bowls and their matchups.  I am not sure that there are any great matchups to be had, simply because of the bowl selection process.  Oregon mauls Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.  Clemson should demolish the Big East Champ as well in the Orange.  OK State or Alabama should win their non-national championship bowl (whichever one gets left behind).

Selection Process
So I will try to explain the order, as concisely as possible, for those interested.  #1 and #2 are slated for the NC Game.  Then the conference champions go to their respective bowls with the exception of the Big East and non-BCS champ that will ultimately earn an auto-bid.  Big Ten and Pac 12 to the Rose Bowl, Big XII to the Fiesta, and ACC to the Orange.  Since LSU will be #1, the Sugar Bowl gets the first "replacement" pick and there is no second "replacement" pick.  If OK State is #2, Fiesta gets the second "replacement" pick after the Sugar.  If Bama is #2, Fiesta gets OK State and gets the first "real" pick, followed by Sugar, followed by Orange.
So, for argument's sake, Bama is #2, Sugar SHOULD take Stanford as a replacement for LSU, the SEC champ they lost to the NC Game.  Fiesta Bowl then gets to make the biggest decision of the bowl season: who is the final at-large?  At this point in the process, there are three spots left, with one guaranteed to Big East Champ (I predict West Virginia) and most likely one to the highest rated non-BCS conference champ, assuming they are in the top 16 and ranked higher than either Clemson or the Big East champ; TCU should fit that bill easily.  So the Fiesta can take an at-large bid.  They could not take a Big XII team to play OK State, they cannot take a third SEC team, but beyond those two restrictions, they can select anyone in the top 14 of the final BCS standings or West Virginia/TCU.  I think they will decide the final team in the BCS and take an at-large candidate.  Do they take #6 Boise State?  Or reach down to Virginia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State?  Could Boise State get shut out two years in a row at 11-1 and ranked in the top 8 of the final BCS Standings?  If Bama is #2, it's up to the Fiesta to decide Boise's fate, as neither the Sugar or Orange Bowl would take the Broncos.  Plus, if the Fiesta takes another at-large team, they would eliminate the Broncos from consideration as Sugar and Orange must take TCU and West Virginia.

If OK State is #2, that changes things drastically.  Bama goes to Sugar, Stanford to Fiesta.  Fiesta then could select Kansas State to face Stanford and decide the final at-large spot.  Again, TCU and West Virginia would play in the Sugar and Orange Bowls.

Mo Predicts
So, in summary, Mo predicts: West Virginia and Clemson in the Orange Bowl and TCU playing either Stanford or Alabama in the Sugar Bowl (I assume Sugar would want Stanford over TCU, Boise State, or Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech).  The Fiesta Bowl is the one with the most possible variation.  They will have either OK State or Stanford as their first team, with the second being ANYBODY (with OK State) or K-State (with Stanford).  I think the Fiesta should favor Boise against OK State, but they have done strange things before, so I could see them grabbing Brady Hoke's Michigan squad b/c of the gigantic fan base.  The only other two options will be Virginia Tech and Michigan State.

No matter how you dice it: are there any matchups in there that anyone's excited about?  Stanford-TCU in the Sugar could be interesting.  Kansas State-Stanford would be a great "old school" style game in the Fiesta.  I wouldn't mind seeing Boise State against OK State in the Fiesta, but I'd rather not see a rematch of Bama-LSU in the Title Game.  It was a horribly played game the first time around, and, besides, Bama had their shot, AT HOME, against LSU and lost.  I'd rather see OK State get their crack at it.  Two things I don't want to see from the BCS games: 11-1 Boise State get shut out again and Alabama getting another shot at LSU.

BYU's Bowl Prospects
And in BYU notes, the Armed Forces Bowl, which is played on the campus of SMU, gets third choice of C-USA schools.  Southern Miss is spoken for, as conference champ.  Houston will undoubtedly go next, however, the Bowl game could negotiate for Houston.  I believe it's the St. Petersburg Bowl that gets "second" choice this year, but the two trade off each year and negotiations are common between the bowls if it will help set-up a better matchup.  That would be sweet!

If they don't negotiate for Houston, then they can either take the 7-5 hometown SMU team or take 8-4 Tulsa.  SMU played in the game last season, and my feeling is, if SMU wants to stay home again for bowl season, they will get the nod, and if they don't, the "bowl" will select Tulsa.  Both teams are similar in style and skill as Hawaii, which BYU dismantled in the third quarter last night on their way to a 41-20 victory.  I think Tulsa would be a tougher test, skill-wise, but playing a true road game for your bowl has its own challenges.  It would be nice to see BYU win 10 games again.  However, at this point, I just want to see BYU play a tough team and win.  BYU was 8-0 against teams with losing records this season.  They went 1-3 against teams going to bowl games, with the lone win an improbable come-from-behind win over Utah State with 11 seconds to go.  I want to see BYU play as good a team as possible, win or lose, just to see if they have improved, or if the schedule just got easier.  No doubt in my mind, Tulsa is that team, when compared to SMU.

A Look Ahead and Behind

BYU and the Big East
I was ecstatic to hear that BYU and the Big East have ceased discussions.  When they commenced, I mentioned to a buddy at work that BYU would fight for the TV Independence it got when it went Independent, and that is apparently what stalled the talks.  I couldn't be happier.  I thought it was a bad move from the start.

There are two major positives to joining the Big East: easier BCS access and more meaningful November games.  There is no way that BYU could increase access for its fans and exposure to the country by joining the Big East.  Well, I suppose the exposure COULD increase in the Big East, since all BYU would have to do would be beat Boise State and they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game, and with a win, a BCS game.

I believe that BYU will start to have more meaningful November games.  I don't anticipate a steady slate of byes, New Mexico States, and Idahos in future Novembers (though this looks like the case in 2012).  Now, I don't anticipate a lot of big-name November matchups, but BYU should be able to get some games against bowl-eligible opponents in November starting in 2013.

Regardless, at the risk of being left out of what may end up being 5 large, major conferences (though I think the Big XII not expanding to 12 will ultimately sink their conference and lead to 4 superconferences), I think BYU needs to pursue Independence, at the very least, through 2013, if not further down the road before even seriously contemplating switching courses.

BYU Basketball Thoughts
BYU is 3-0 against teams that almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament.  They are 0-2 against teams that probably will make the tournament.  With 9 more non-conference games to go, BYU only plays one more certain NCAA Tournament team, with two other fringe teams.  BYU Basketball looks very similar to BYU Football right now: they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams.  Right now, they haven't played enough middle teams to find out exactly where they fit in the spectrum.  Oregon is their next opportunity to play one: a team that hopes to make the NCAA Tournament but will probably be on the bubble.

In watching several of BYU's games so far this year, one thing is apparent: they miss Jimmer Fredette.  Not just because he was Jimmer Fredette either.  When teams extend their defense, the Cougars do not have any guard that can put the ball on the floor and create for himself or for others.  That is really the one thing the good BYU teams of the 2000's lacked, and what they seriously lack right now in Jimmer's absence.  Travis Hansen was pretty good at it, but he wasn't a true guard.  Jimmy Balderson occasionally could create for himself (but never for others, and was a complete liability on defense).  Against Wisconsin, BYU managed just 1-10 on three pointers.  The 10% is obviously problematic, but the lack of confidence is worse.  BYU consistently shoots 18 or more 3s in a game.  The lack of ability to create open shots completes the trifecta.

Harrison appears to be growing a bit on the guard line.  We still are yet to see what Carlino brings to the table, but he's got to be better than Martineau or Cusick.  Anson Winder has potential, he certainly is a long body that can move up and down the floor.  There is some inexperience there, but I think the fact is that Martineau and Cusick just cannot play the game at the level that BYU needs if they are to take their program to the next level.  It will have to be Carlino, Harrison, and Winder that get BYU there.

BYU falt out just needs its guards to play better.  But BYU fans are well aware of this.  Other than Jimmer, in the years since Danny Ainge they have never had a guard with the toughness and skill to take on aggressive defenses.  There is too much church ball in their guard line.  Right now, that's what I see from BYU basketball.

I predict a 10-4 or 9-5 finish in the non-conference.  I anticipate that Baylor will probably beat BYU in Provo and I'm not sure how good Oregon or Virginia Tech really are right now, but I can't imagine BYU winning both games away from Provo (Oregon is at Energy Solutions in Salt Lake).  There shouldn't be any issues dispatching everyone else there.

I would hope for no worse than 12-4 in conference play, though I liked what I saw from Santa Clara in passing a few days (or maybe weeks now?) ago which could revise that down to 11-5 at the worst.  BYU should win home games against everyone except perhaps Saint Mary's, and Gonzaga, though I don't believe they lose both of those.  They could get nipped in a few conference road games as well, most notably Santa Clara, though I wouldn't count Loyola-Marymount or San Francisco out.  At 22-8 prior to the conference tournament, they would be squarely on the bubble, particularly because that would leave them with few quality wins, and none of them away from home.

BYU at Hawaii
I have two big concerns for the Hawaii game.  First and foremost, BYU's secondary against athletic, talented players that specialize in the short passing game.  Second, Hawaii needs the game to get bowl eligible.  Certainly I believe the Warriors motivation to get to a bowl game exceeds BYU's motivation to get to 10 wins.

There are several positives for BYU, however.  First, Hawaii is being investigated for point-shaving.  Any distraction for Hawaii is a good distraction, as BYU will have plenty to deal with on the islands, i.e. pretty girls in bikinis.  Second, Hawaii has been beat twice at home this season.  The Islands have not been the fortress of victories that they typically are.  Third, this is Hawaii's eighth consecutive week with a game, where BYU has had two byes in the past month.  BYU is rested.  Hawaii is nicked up.  Mobile QB Bryant Moniz is not playing, replaced by statue QB David Graves whose accuracy is questionable at best.  Fourth, BYU has proven they can compete and win on the road.  They beat Ole Miss and Oregon State, which are similar in talent levels to Hawaii.  They competed at Texas and in Arlington against TCU, which are a step-up from Hawaii.

Will the positives outweight the negatives?  I don't know.  I think the motivation for a bowl game really might be the difference.  As a former football player, I can tell you that motivation of that kind only lasts for maybe half the first quarter, and after that, it's just about execution.  There may another slight boost immediately after half-time, but again, after that, it's about playing the game.  The problem is BYU's recent history of having poor starts and "giving" gifts early in games.  If Hawaii gets up 14-0 that first 7.5 minutes with a motivated start, BYU may not recover.  I certainly don't anticipate a Jake Heaps-quarterbacked team coming back from that deficit.  He isn't the right kind of leader right now to bring a team back from a two-score deficit.  Doman isn't the right kind of OC right now to call a game for Heaps that CAN have Heaps bring the team back: he'll call three straight out patterns and if they aren't all complete, BYU has to punt.

Utah's Missed Opportunity
Utah had three missed field goals in a game they lost by 3 points, including two in the fourth quarter, one a chip shot barely longer than an extra point.  Had Utah won the game, they would be 8-4 and representing the Pac 12 South in the Conference Championship Game in their first season in the conference, after losses by Arizona State and UCLA over the weekend.  However, given that Utah had no experience at RB, little at WR, and a QB coming off shoulder surgery who didn't survive the season, the Utes rebounded well from a sluggish start.

While I wouldn't necessarily call it a successful season for them given what could have been, they did well for themselves.  This was clearly a rebuilding year and they competed in most of their Pac 12 games.  The three conference losses at home hurt though, considering it was against 7-5 Washington, 6-6 Arizona State, and 3-10 Colorado.  However, as with BYU's young team, they have a lot to look forward to next season.  The young bucks that cost them games against USC and Colorado, and prevented them from being in games against Washington, Arizona State, and at Cal, will be that much more experienced and familiar with program expectations next season.

But let's face it, they were thoroughly outplayed in all of their losses, even if the scoreboard was close.  This was my biggest criticism of them in the MWC, they tend to play to the level of their competition.  They should have beaten ASU, won at Cal, and destroyed Colorado.  They often gave similar efforts against CSU, Wyoming, or UNLV.  The talent disparity was such that they could overcome it more often than not.  They have to come more prepared every week in the Pac 12 or it will cost them, as it did this season.  Talent-wise, they match up RIGHT NOW with 8 of the other 11 schools in the conference.  And it's not the "grind of the season" that they can't handle, as they reeled off four wins in a row in late October through November.  It's the same problem they have always had: bringing their A-game every week.  Utah cannot win with its B-game in the Pac 12.  They match up with, they aren't better than, their competition.  This ain't Little Sisters of the Poor anymore.

New Mexico State-BYU Preview, 11/19/2011

Sorry, the internet has been down at our house the past two weeks, and even now it's only working intermittently.  So BYU trounced Idaho, dispatched them with little issue.  No surprise.  The only thing I was really curious to see from BYU last week was the mindset.  After going 0-3 against its bowl-bound opponents, and 6-0 against the rest, I was curious how they would come out of the gates.  They stormed out to a big lead and never looked back.  With Riley's injury, it also reaffirmed to me that while Riley turned it around, once the ship was righted against Utah State, Heaps or Nelson would have yielded about the same record.  Even James Lark looked decent last week in the win.  BYU needed Nelson to beat Utah State, that much was obvious, but I think BYU would have lost to TCU and beat everyone else with any of the three QBs.  It was just a product of the schedule.  There were three teams better than BYU on the schedule, and BYU will have at least 3 losses.  Obviously, there is more to add to the story with each passing week, especially with Nelson on the shelf.

BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State.  In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses.  They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing.  And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football.  I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game.  Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes.  Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen.  BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game.  There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.

So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points.  NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season.  5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.

BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread.  BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game.  How many slants and hitches will BYU see today?  My guess is A LOT.  Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes?  Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early?  That will decide it.

Even then, it's tough to come from behind.  A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State.  They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays.  BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking.  NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.

Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17.  Heaps looks good.  Backups get playing time.  And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3.  The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation?  For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not!  I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."

Back Online

I'm sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post ever since BYU's loss to TCU.  Well, I am sorry to disappoint, but I'm back now.  Today at least.  I leave for New Hampshire in about 2 hours and won't be able to get anything else out for you guys until at least Wednesday night.  So, now some thoughts.

TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes.  Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it.  Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough.  Ole Miss almost was.  As were Central Florida and Utah State.  Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii).  Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads.  With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse.  With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.

Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody.  It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents.  BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game.  The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU.  Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team.  I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team.  But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left.  I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good.  They don't know how to play within themselves.  They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football.  They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.

Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings.  Can they catch Alabama?  I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.

Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home.  Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site.  Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out).  But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change.  Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now.  Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season.  Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's.  Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team.  The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State.  Crazy, I know, but true.  As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season.  If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think.  It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State.  These are essentially equivalent games.  The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State.  This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama.  Then things really get interesting.  Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games.  However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.

Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls.  So the voters will have to decide.  Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it.  I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game.  I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.

Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose.  LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia.  OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks.  Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.

The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated?  Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?

Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points.  Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs.  His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass.  He can't make up for his 50% in any way.  Nelson can.  Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.

I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet.  I will not perpetuate that myth.  I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous.  Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go.  I don't believe he has been though.  In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing.  With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!

What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season.  I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB.  Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps?  Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.

BYU-TCU Preview, Part III, 10/28/2011

Prediction
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game.  Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again).  The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.).  There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together.  This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.

If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again.  With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons.  With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play.  Perhaps Nelson changes that.  But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.

I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU.  I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back.  He has got to be very good.  He needs to be precise.  He can't turn the ball over.  But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game.  He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game.  But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet.  He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...

I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history).  BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge.  They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge.  I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with.  TCU 34, BYU 24.

What do you all predict for this game?  And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy.  Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see.  I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!