To all of you loyal readers. After taking some time to think about my life, and evaluating my performance on obligations to my family, church responsibilities, and my continual learning/education/growth, I am planning on taking at least the summer off from writing. At that time I will re-evaluate whether or not to continue blogging/blabbing my opinions on college football and MWC/BYU basketball. It has been a rather joyous ride, nearly two years and well over 300 posts. I hope you have enjoyed my predictions, analysis, and general thoughts as much as I have enjoyed your reactions to them.
Thanks for all your wonderful comments, insights, etc. Perhaps we will see you again in the fall, perhaps not, but until then: enjoy some NBA/NHL playoffs and some of America's past time! Stay classy.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
My Apologies...
To Rockies fans everywhere. No sooner did I add Manny Corpas to my fantasy team then he gives up 4 runs in the 9th inning last night to the Fightin's. I normally wouldn't be arrogant enough to presume I have such power over the universe, but given the fact that he had allowed only 4 runs in his previous 21 2/3 innings and he only has a bad outing the first one after I add him to the roster, I have to assume it's me. I further apologize to Red Sox fans for cursing their franchise (again): Ellsbury hurt for a month and Ortiz and Beckett in the doghouse. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs), Jason Kubel (Twins), Justin Verlander (Tigers), and Brian Fuentes (Angels) are also having the worst years of their careers to this point: coincidence, I don't think so. The Mo Knows Fantasy Curse is coming soon to a city near you.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Back to Hoops Again
Well, the deadline for underclassmen to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone. There were only two MWC players involved: New Mexico's Darington Hobson and BYU's Jimmer Fredette.
Hobson is going to take the money and run. He brings the same skill set to the NBA that Lamar Odom did as a rookie. He will have to, as Odom has definitely done, improve in two major areas to earn time in the NBA: outside shooting and strength. He was "strong" for a MWC SF/PF, but he won't get the job done at his current size at the next level. Strength is probably going to be easier to improve for him than his outside shooting, so I would say he should do what Odom did: put on 20 pounds of muscle his first 3 seasons in the NBA. He was a streaky outside shooter, so maybe hope isn't lost there. Most sites project him as a late-first round pick. This was a good move for him. He might have improved his stock somewhat with another year in college, but it's doubtful he was going to end up in the lottery anyway.
Fredette is taking the other route, opting to return to school for another crack at improving his stock. His superb ball skills and shooting ability put him as the number 2 or 3 PG in the draft, depending on who you trust, but it wasn't enough to guarantee a first round pick. True to his word (which was kind of a ridiculous "ultimatum" for a slow underclassman PG), if he had no first round guarantee, he would be back for his senior year. His toughness has been well documented as well as his clutch play. However, he struggled mightily against the better, higher pressure defenders he faced, and nearly all of the players he would face in the NBA would be better than those who shut him down in college. He could definitely improve his stock by another year in college. Realistically, he isn't going to move into the lottery either, but he could move up into the late-middle of the first round. Whether he does or not, we shall see. If he has a phenomenal year, he could move into the top 20; if he has a better year, late first-round; if he has the same type of year, early second round; and if he sucks it up, he might not get drafted at all.
How it impacts the MWC race:
The MWC landscape is definitely changed from what it appeared to be at the end of the season based on the following semi-major events: Michael Loyd Jr. transferring from BYU, BYU landing high-profile JC Forward Stephen Rogers, Nate Garth transferring from New Mexico, 4 Utah players transferring out, Utah landing a quality JC PG, Fredette returning, and Hobson leaving. BYU is losing some of its depth. Utah is losing most of its proven offensive firepower. New Mexico is losing 3 of their 8-man rotation instead of just 1.
New Mexico definitely loses its position as the MWC favorite. Utah's slide down the standings probably continues into next season (though in their grind-it-to-a-halt type of O, if they have a PG who can create for himself and others, you don't want to underestimate them: I'm just not sure yet if Josh Watkins is that guy or not). BYU still remains near the top and in the hunt.
BYU is probably my favorite to win the REGULAR SEASON conference championship at this point for the following reasons (SDSU is a close second):
1. Home dominance: BYU might lose one conference game at home. Might. But never more than one, and they often make up for it with a win at SDSU or (more rarely and less recently) New Mexico.
2. They beat who they should beat: BYU has not lost a game to anyone that finished in the bottom half of the MWC standings since Rose's first year at the helm. That includes home, road, and conference tournament games.
3. UNLV and SDSU are probably too inconsistent to string together a championship run: each year these teams lose at least one game they have no business losing. SDSU lost at Wyoming each of the past two years. UNLV lost to Utah twice this past season and at TCU, CSU, and Wyoming the previous year. Losing one game you shouldn't in this league is enough to separate you from that coveted conference title. If New Mexico would have lost even one last year, they would have had to share the MWC crown. For the past 4 years, this has been the case.
I think UNLV obviously has the leg up when it comes to the MWC tournament, playing at home (though SDSU has knocked them out each of the past two seasons). SDSU is probably going to have the best showing in the NCAA Tournament, purely based on athleticism and experience.
Updated predictions:
1. BYU
2. SDSU
3. UNLV
4. New Mexico
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Air Force
8. Utah
9. TCU
Hobson is going to take the money and run. He brings the same skill set to the NBA that Lamar Odom did as a rookie. He will have to, as Odom has definitely done, improve in two major areas to earn time in the NBA: outside shooting and strength. He was "strong" for a MWC SF/PF, but he won't get the job done at his current size at the next level. Strength is probably going to be easier to improve for him than his outside shooting, so I would say he should do what Odom did: put on 20 pounds of muscle his first 3 seasons in the NBA. He was a streaky outside shooter, so maybe hope isn't lost there. Most sites project him as a late-first round pick. This was a good move for him. He might have improved his stock somewhat with another year in college, but it's doubtful he was going to end up in the lottery anyway.
Fredette is taking the other route, opting to return to school for another crack at improving his stock. His superb ball skills and shooting ability put him as the number 2 or 3 PG in the draft, depending on who you trust, but it wasn't enough to guarantee a first round pick. True to his word (which was kind of a ridiculous "ultimatum" for a slow underclassman PG), if he had no first round guarantee, he would be back for his senior year. His toughness has been well documented as well as his clutch play. However, he struggled mightily against the better, higher pressure defenders he faced, and nearly all of the players he would face in the NBA would be better than those who shut him down in college. He could definitely improve his stock by another year in college. Realistically, he isn't going to move into the lottery either, but he could move up into the late-middle of the first round. Whether he does or not, we shall see. If he has a phenomenal year, he could move into the top 20; if he has a better year, late first-round; if he has the same type of year, early second round; and if he sucks it up, he might not get drafted at all.
How it impacts the MWC race:
The MWC landscape is definitely changed from what it appeared to be at the end of the season based on the following semi-major events: Michael Loyd Jr. transferring from BYU, BYU landing high-profile JC Forward Stephen Rogers, Nate Garth transferring from New Mexico, 4 Utah players transferring out, Utah landing a quality JC PG, Fredette returning, and Hobson leaving. BYU is losing some of its depth. Utah is losing most of its proven offensive firepower. New Mexico is losing 3 of their 8-man rotation instead of just 1.
New Mexico definitely loses its position as the MWC favorite. Utah's slide down the standings probably continues into next season (though in their grind-it-to-a-halt type of O, if they have a PG who can create for himself and others, you don't want to underestimate them: I'm just not sure yet if Josh Watkins is that guy or not). BYU still remains near the top and in the hunt.
BYU is probably my favorite to win the REGULAR SEASON conference championship at this point for the following reasons (SDSU is a close second):
1. Home dominance: BYU might lose one conference game at home. Might. But never more than one, and they often make up for it with a win at SDSU or (more rarely and less recently) New Mexico.
2. They beat who they should beat: BYU has not lost a game to anyone that finished in the bottom half of the MWC standings since Rose's first year at the helm. That includes home, road, and conference tournament games.
3. UNLV and SDSU are probably too inconsistent to string together a championship run: each year these teams lose at least one game they have no business losing. SDSU lost at Wyoming each of the past two years. UNLV lost to Utah twice this past season and at TCU, CSU, and Wyoming the previous year. Losing one game you shouldn't in this league is enough to separate you from that coveted conference title. If New Mexico would have lost even one last year, they would have had to share the MWC crown. For the past 4 years, this has been the case.
I think UNLV obviously has the leg up when it comes to the MWC tournament, playing at home (though SDSU has knocked them out each of the past two seasons). SDSU is probably going to have the best showing in the NCAA Tournament, purely based on athleticism and experience.
Updated predictions:
1. BYU
2. SDSU
3. UNLV
4. New Mexico
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Air Force
8. Utah
9. TCU
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Final Expansion Thoughts
First off, if any BCS conference invites any non-BCS team, that team is accepting the invite. There has been speculation that somebody would turn down an offer. Nobody or institution is that stupid. You take the money and are content moving to the bottom of the standings. Utah would never turn down an offer from the Pac 10. BYU would never turn down an offer from the Big 12 (unless the invite came with a "you must play on Sundays" mandate).
Secondly, if the Pac 10 expands to 12, I don't see any scenario where they don't take Utah. The rest of the Pac 10 won't allow another California school (as if they were attractive options anyway), and Colorado needs a nearby travel companion (and CSU isn't up to par athletically for the Pac 10). I also don't see any scenario where they would take BYU. Furthermore, I don't see any scenario where Utah is competitive in the Pac 10/12 in football or basketball for quite some time. The football program is in much better shape to be competitive, but the big issue with Utah under K-Whit is remaining focused from week to week. Utah always gets up for the big game but frequently lets lesser competition play with them. With more big games each season (Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State) and with lesser competition that is more competitive (Washington, UCLA, Arizona), the losses would probably add up a lot faster. I think they would still make bowl games each year, but conference titles, dougle-digit wins for a season, and BCS games are much less likely. Basketball: they are not even in position to be competitive in the MWC, so the Pac 10 is out of the question.
Thirdly, adding BYU is a tricky proposition for any conference. Because of BYU's standards, rules, and regulations, they came to the table with a list of demands. Every other non-BCS team comes to the table hoping for scraps. That's tough to compete with. I do believe that if the Big 12 needs to add two teams, they'd be foolish not to have BYU in the top 3 (with TCU and perhaps Houston or New Mexico). If you talk about academics, athletic prestige, stadium sizes, fan base, money, etc, there is no non-BCS team anywhere close to BYU when you wrap it all up into one presentation. You also can't discount the Mormon factor, as much as you would like to think it isn't an issue in these days; days when a scrawny, awkward black child can grow up to become President of the United States: you just don't know how that is going to be evaluated. Realistically however, the Big 12 just has to do a balancing act to determine if the demands BYU brings to the table are exceeded by the positives. As a BYU follower, I believe what BYU brings to the table outweighs the demands that follow them wherever they go, but, as a fan and follower, I can't see things clearly and entirely from the Big 12 Executives' perspective. No matter how objective you TRY to be, it is impossible to step completely out of your shoes and into another person's. That's why the mock draft experts did such a poor job outside of the top 9 picks in the NFL draft: they aren't in the rooms with each team's ownership, they don't know what each team is looking for or at, and they can't see beyond their own biases. It's the nature of sports.
Fourth, enough talk already: let's see some expansion in action! The NCAA tourney got the ball rolling (thankfully it didn't roll too far!), let's see the Pac 10 or Big 10 make a move. Soon.
Secondly, if the Pac 10 expands to 12, I don't see any scenario where they don't take Utah. The rest of the Pac 10 won't allow another California school (as if they were attractive options anyway), and Colorado needs a nearby travel companion (and CSU isn't up to par athletically for the Pac 10). I also don't see any scenario where they would take BYU. Furthermore, I don't see any scenario where Utah is competitive in the Pac 10/12 in football or basketball for quite some time. The football program is in much better shape to be competitive, but the big issue with Utah under K-Whit is remaining focused from week to week. Utah always gets up for the big game but frequently lets lesser competition play with them. With more big games each season (Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State) and with lesser competition that is more competitive (Washington, UCLA, Arizona), the losses would probably add up a lot faster. I think they would still make bowl games each year, but conference titles, dougle-digit wins for a season, and BCS games are much less likely. Basketball: they are not even in position to be competitive in the MWC, so the Pac 10 is out of the question.
Thirdly, adding BYU is a tricky proposition for any conference. Because of BYU's standards, rules, and regulations, they came to the table with a list of demands. Every other non-BCS team comes to the table hoping for scraps. That's tough to compete with. I do believe that if the Big 12 needs to add two teams, they'd be foolish not to have BYU in the top 3 (with TCU and perhaps Houston or New Mexico). If you talk about academics, athletic prestige, stadium sizes, fan base, money, etc, there is no non-BCS team anywhere close to BYU when you wrap it all up into one presentation. You also can't discount the Mormon factor, as much as you would like to think it isn't an issue in these days; days when a scrawny, awkward black child can grow up to become President of the United States: you just don't know how that is going to be evaluated. Realistically however, the Big 12 just has to do a balancing act to determine if the demands BYU brings to the table are exceeded by the positives. As a BYU follower, I believe what BYU brings to the table outweighs the demands that follow them wherever they go, but, as a fan and follower, I can't see things clearly and entirely from the Big 12 Executives' perspective. No matter how objective you TRY to be, it is impossible to step completely out of your shoes and into another person's. That's why the mock draft experts did such a poor job outside of the top 9 picks in the NFL draft: they aren't in the rooms with each team's ownership, they don't know what each team is looking for or at, and they can't see beyond their own biases. It's the nature of sports.
Fourth, enough talk already: let's see some expansion in action! The NCAA tourney got the ball rolling (thankfully it didn't roll too far!), let's see the Pac 10 or Big 10 make a move. Soon.
Monday, May 3, 2010
What to Expect From 2010 BYU Football
Well, sorry it's taken so long. I'm glad I waited a while before posting this, though, since Harvey Unga's announcement that he is withdrawing from BYU changes things a little bit. First off, Harvey could potentially come back for this upcoming season. He would just need an ecclesiastical endorsement prior to the start of fall camp. Secondly, if you were going to lose a superstar, I would rather lose Harvey Unga than any of the other 3: WR McKay Jacobson, SS Andrew Rich, or OLB Jordan Pendleton. There is a lot more depth at RB than there is at those 3 spots. Don't believe me: tell me who the backup running back is. You probably answered JJ DeLuigi or maybe you said Bryan Kariya. Perhaps hotshot freshman Joshua Quezada went through your mind. Now quick, give me the backup SS or OLB. Wide Receiver isn't quite as bad as SS or OLB since they have Luke Ashworth, Spencer Hafoka, and O'Neill Chambers (and maybe Ross Apo?). Better Unga than any of those 3.
OK, let's start with the schedule and work our way to personnel. The schedule isn't amazingly difficult, it never really is in the MWC. The non-conference schedule includes two BCS conference foes, one at home with Washington and one on the road with Florida State and a new head coach after decades of Bobby Bowden. Two WAC foes, both of which shouldn't give BYU a whole lot of trouble (though you never know about the rivalry game in Logan, homecoming for Riley Nelson), one at home with Nevada, and one on the road with Utah State (who I believe will push for a bowl game this season). The toughest MWC opponents are ALL on the road, but realistically, the home-field advantage isn't a huge deal with the MWC's mostly tiny stadiums and with BYU's large following (other than playing at Utah which is about as hostile an environment as there is in college football, for the BYU game that is, not generally speaking). The bye comes after BYU's 8th game of the season, leading into November. You would always prefer to have the bye prior to TCU, but that is never going to happen.
BYU starts the year home, away, away, home, and then finishes with a home-away pattern for the close of the season. They will probably play 3 ranked opponents, one in September, one in October, and one in November. It is a very balanced schedule. If BYU starts out 0-3, I would anticipate a 7-5 finish. If they go 1-2, maybe that jumps to 8-4. At 2-1, I like their chances to win 9 or maybe even 10 games. If they beat Washington, win at Air Force, and take down the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, I think they are likely to win 10 or possibly even 11 games. I do not like their chances to go 12-0. I would be shocked and disappointed if they didn't win at least 7 games. I would hope they could get to 8 or 9 wins this year. I would consider that a good year. 10 or 11 wins would be a phenomenal year. 6 wins or less would mean they absolutely chose the wrong starting QB! I think they will probably go 8-4 and finish 3rd or 4th in the conference for the following reasons:
1. Even if they choose the best QB for the job, there are growing pains associated with starting at the Division I level for the first time. Max Hall was still experiencing some of them last year! It will inevitably cost them one game. Whether that is a close game where there is a bad read in the 4th quarter, or a game where the QB plays poorly throughout that prevents BYU from being in the game, you never know. But it will cost you one game. Look at Utah last year: they lost at Oregon b/c of their QB, they lost at TCU partially because their QB dug them into a huge hole in the first half, they lost at BYU in OT because they couldn't do anything on offense in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and because they had to settle for a field goal in OT.
2. There is no question this is somewhat of a rebuilding year. The last rebuilding year for the Cougars, BYU managed to win a conference championship. However, that season, TCU was 8-5 and Utah lost to UNLV 27-0: neither of those are happening this season. While they are going to be able to replace some of the losses they took with graduation, there is no way they can replace all of them at the same level. This team will probably have greater talent, speed, and size than last year's team at most positions (not DE or TE), but experience is vital to success in Division I athletics. Look at hoops: Duke vs. Kentucky. Duke's upper-classmen definitely weren't better or more talented than Kentucky's freshman, but they had the Division I experience to win an NCAA Championship. Kentucky did not. BYU is going to play a lot of inexperienced guys. Period. There are a lot of teams with more experience on their schedule, including Washington, Air Force, Florida State, TCU, Utah.
Personnel
QBs: this is obviously the most highly publicized position battle. There are 3 quality candidates, 4 if you count Munns (I don't count him: he has no chance to be the starting QB). At least one of them could have a stellar career as BYU's QB. I think the longer the "race" goes, the more likely Heaps is going to win it. His biggest weakness at this point is experience. The longer this drags out, the more experience he is going to have. If they had named a starter after Spring Ball, it probably would not have been Heaps. Since they didn't name one: it's going to be Heaps. If you look at the stats from Spring Ball scrimmages, Heaps had a higher completion % (Doman's number one criteria because completions yield first downs and first downs yield touchdowns), more yards per attempt, and more TDs than the other two candidates. He can throw deep, he can throw short, he can move in the pocket, he can handle the playbook, he can read the defense. Why wouldn't you start the guy? I think Heaps starts and he throws for 3,000 yards and gets 8 wins: a nice start to replace Hall on the top of BYU's winningest QB list.
RBs: even without Harvey Unga, BYU has a really solid backfield. While they don't have a big bruiser like Tonga to lead the way (who does these days?), they have serviceable lead-blockers, and Kariya could be more than serviceable for sure. Now add Unga to the mix and BYU has a great backfield. I think BYU will rely on the run game more if Unga is there. If not, they'll utilize the backs like BYU's offense normally does. With Riley Nelson as either the starting QB or backup/wildcat QB, they wouldn't even necessarily need the RBs as much. The running game is still a position of relative strength for the Cougars, even without Unga.
WRs: this should be a solid, but relatively unspectacular, unit this year. This is nothing new. The big, strong, fast WRs just don't matriculate to the campus of BYU. If they do, they have no hands. There is some promise with big, strong WRs this year: Chambers as a Junior and Apo the incoming freshman. Jacobson is wicked fast. Ashworth and Hafoka are BYU's traditional precision route runners. I think once you get below that 5th WR, people won't be seeing much playing time. The top 5 are, again, solid. If Apo is the real deal and Jacobson stays healthy (and Heaps plays QB), this unit could move into the "great" category.
TEs: I know the coaches say these new guys are talented, but I'm not sure I buy it. They certainly aren't Pitta and George (who are now on the Ravens and Panthers). There are two "talented" freshmen, two juniors who weren't good enough to see the field the last two years, and two guys coming off missions. I think the TE might be somewhat absent from BYU's repertoire, at least the first half of the season. It will certainly be more absent than last year. This will hurt the most in the red zone, where the TEs could be used as blockers or on play-action as touchdown makers.
OL: obviously there is some concern here because of injuries. However, BYU did the same thing last year and the O-Line turned out to be pretty solid. About half of the penalties on the line last year were called on the lone departure, Center R.J. Willing. The other 4 starters return. There will also be 3 new linemen who fought for starting jobs last year and had season-ending injuries before the season. That's 7 solid linemen, plus the 5 guys who got all of the reps in spring camp because everyone else was injured. So, this should be a very good unit with 4 returning starters and 8 good/experienced players behind them, assuming they get healthy and gel together. I'd like to see a little more toughness from them in the running game, but you can't expect them to do perfectly. They are led by a future 1st round draft pick (according to Todd McShay).
DL: for a team that runs a 3-4 that lost it's top 4 DL, they surprisingly have a lot of experience on this unit. 4 guys played good minutes last year and the year before, at least 2 others were seeing very significant time on special teams. However, I still see a huge dropoff from last year. It starts in the middle: there is only one true nose tackle with Romney Fuga. He's the only guy within a reasonable distance of 300 pounds. The lack of size on the DL is disconcerting. There is some speed off the edge, but that doesn't do much good if teams pound you up the middle. Last year they had this same issue but had some beefy MLBs to back them up, which evened the playing field a bit. This year, they don't have that luxury.
LBs: there is a lot of potential here. But to this point, everyone but Jordan Pendleton is just a "potential" good player. Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, Brandon Ogletree: they might be good. You just don't know. One thing is for sure: this unit will need to play well. The defensive scheme for BYU asks the LBs to do so much more than the other positions. This unit needs to make plays, plain and simple. Last year, Pendleton and Baumann made big plays. The year before, nobody made big plays. The year before that all of the LBs were playmakers. There is a huge difference from year to year. Last year the D was much better than 2008, neither of which were anywhere near as good as the 2007 D. If Pendleton isn't a dominant force, who is going to be? Ideally, you'd like another LB to step up so the former Bingham Miner doesn't have to carry the front 7 by himself.
CBs: a lot of things can and have been said about the history the cornerback position at BYU. They are either really quick but short with no ability to play or the ball or tall but slow with no ability to be close enough to even play the ball at all. I think this year, these guys might actually be better than the traditional BYU CB. Both starters from last year are returning, and they were better than half-decent. Brandon Bradley showed promise last year: he was in on a lot of tackles (4th on the team), however, he didn't get a single interception the entire season (you can't have a starting corner in Division I that didn't get a single pick). He did force two fumbles, though, so at least he's involved in creating turnovers somehow. Brian Logan got better at playing the ball last year as the year went along (he even ended up with 14 pass break-ups, which was one of the best in the country), but he needs to improve dramatically: teams will continue to pick on him because of his size, or lack thereof (his percentage of pass break-ups was not very spectacular). He had 6 or 7 pass interference penalties and also gave up a lot of receptions. Where these two corners definitely excel is in preventing YAC (yards after the catch). The backups are supposedly serviceable. Lee Acquirre played quite a bit last year and played about as well as the starters. Corby Eason and Robbie Buckner were in the hunt for the starting jobs last year and would probably be decent, if playing them became necessary. They lack size, though both are bigger than Logan. In 2011, those two will probably be starting.
Safeties: Andrew Rich is a beast. He led the team in tackles (and it wasn't even close). He tied for the team lead in picks with 4. He was occasionally used as a blitzer, very effectively. He played tough on screens and swing passes. He was all over the field. And he did all of that with injuries to his ankle and shoulder that required surgery in the offseason. Unfortunately, you have to play two safeties. Plus, Rich doesn't have a solid backup either. This is the one position where they are set and screwed at the same time. Rich is the best player on the defense, but they have no quality free safety options. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Rich moves to free safety, since the guys competing for free safety are really strong safeties anyway and he has such a mastery of the defensive schemes. I think that would be a mistake, personally, and I hope they don't do it. If they don't discover a quality free safety, the QB of BYU's D, they might be in trouble, regardless of how well everybody else does.
BYU has plenty of talent. They have mostly bigger, faster, stronger players than last year, but they are definitely much greener. I think the greenies can and will pull out 8 or 9 wins. I don't expect 10, but if they get 6, I will second guess personnel decisions across the board. I'll blame Harvey Unga for his honor code issues. I'll blast recruiting strategies and results. I will pick apart every aspect of the program that I don't agree with. I'm a fan and blogger, so I can do that! Just kidding. I think Bronco is doing a great job. I think the program is miles ahead of where it would be at this time with K-Whit. He's perfect for Utah, Bronco is perfect for BYU. I will, however, be brutally honest with what I think is happening with the program. I think the long-term future looks very bright for the program, though in the short-term some growing pains are to be expected.
OK, let's start with the schedule and work our way to personnel. The schedule isn't amazingly difficult, it never really is in the MWC. The non-conference schedule includes two BCS conference foes, one at home with Washington and one on the road with Florida State and a new head coach after decades of Bobby Bowden. Two WAC foes, both of which shouldn't give BYU a whole lot of trouble (though you never know about the rivalry game in Logan, homecoming for Riley Nelson), one at home with Nevada, and one on the road with Utah State (who I believe will push for a bowl game this season). The toughest MWC opponents are ALL on the road, but realistically, the home-field advantage isn't a huge deal with the MWC's mostly tiny stadiums and with BYU's large following (other than playing at Utah which is about as hostile an environment as there is in college football, for the BYU game that is, not generally speaking). The bye comes after BYU's 8th game of the season, leading into November. You would always prefer to have the bye prior to TCU, but that is never going to happen.
BYU starts the year home, away, away, home, and then finishes with a home-away pattern for the close of the season. They will probably play 3 ranked opponents, one in September, one in October, and one in November. It is a very balanced schedule. If BYU starts out 0-3, I would anticipate a 7-5 finish. If they go 1-2, maybe that jumps to 8-4. At 2-1, I like their chances to win 9 or maybe even 10 games. If they beat Washington, win at Air Force, and take down the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, I think they are likely to win 10 or possibly even 11 games. I do not like their chances to go 12-0. I would be shocked and disappointed if they didn't win at least 7 games. I would hope they could get to 8 or 9 wins this year. I would consider that a good year. 10 or 11 wins would be a phenomenal year. 6 wins or less would mean they absolutely chose the wrong starting QB! I think they will probably go 8-4 and finish 3rd or 4th in the conference for the following reasons:
1. Even if they choose the best QB for the job, there are growing pains associated with starting at the Division I level for the first time. Max Hall was still experiencing some of them last year! It will inevitably cost them one game. Whether that is a close game where there is a bad read in the 4th quarter, or a game where the QB plays poorly throughout that prevents BYU from being in the game, you never know. But it will cost you one game. Look at Utah last year: they lost at Oregon b/c of their QB, they lost at TCU partially because their QB dug them into a huge hole in the first half, they lost at BYU in OT because they couldn't do anything on offense in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and because they had to settle for a field goal in OT.
2. There is no question this is somewhat of a rebuilding year. The last rebuilding year for the Cougars, BYU managed to win a conference championship. However, that season, TCU was 8-5 and Utah lost to UNLV 27-0: neither of those are happening this season. While they are going to be able to replace some of the losses they took with graduation, there is no way they can replace all of them at the same level. This team will probably have greater talent, speed, and size than last year's team at most positions (not DE or TE), but experience is vital to success in Division I athletics. Look at hoops: Duke vs. Kentucky. Duke's upper-classmen definitely weren't better or more talented than Kentucky's freshman, but they had the Division I experience to win an NCAA Championship. Kentucky did not. BYU is going to play a lot of inexperienced guys. Period. There are a lot of teams with more experience on their schedule, including Washington, Air Force, Florida State, TCU, Utah.
Personnel
QBs: this is obviously the most highly publicized position battle. There are 3 quality candidates, 4 if you count Munns (I don't count him: he has no chance to be the starting QB). At least one of them could have a stellar career as BYU's QB. I think the longer the "race" goes, the more likely Heaps is going to win it. His biggest weakness at this point is experience. The longer this drags out, the more experience he is going to have. If they had named a starter after Spring Ball, it probably would not have been Heaps. Since they didn't name one: it's going to be Heaps. If you look at the stats from Spring Ball scrimmages, Heaps had a higher completion % (Doman's number one criteria because completions yield first downs and first downs yield touchdowns), more yards per attempt, and more TDs than the other two candidates. He can throw deep, he can throw short, he can move in the pocket, he can handle the playbook, he can read the defense. Why wouldn't you start the guy? I think Heaps starts and he throws for 3,000 yards and gets 8 wins: a nice start to replace Hall on the top of BYU's winningest QB list.
RBs: even without Harvey Unga, BYU has a really solid backfield. While they don't have a big bruiser like Tonga to lead the way (who does these days?), they have serviceable lead-blockers, and Kariya could be more than serviceable for sure. Now add Unga to the mix and BYU has a great backfield. I think BYU will rely on the run game more if Unga is there. If not, they'll utilize the backs like BYU's offense normally does. With Riley Nelson as either the starting QB or backup/wildcat QB, they wouldn't even necessarily need the RBs as much. The running game is still a position of relative strength for the Cougars, even without Unga.
WRs: this should be a solid, but relatively unspectacular, unit this year. This is nothing new. The big, strong, fast WRs just don't matriculate to the campus of BYU. If they do, they have no hands. There is some promise with big, strong WRs this year: Chambers as a Junior and Apo the incoming freshman. Jacobson is wicked fast. Ashworth and Hafoka are BYU's traditional precision route runners. I think once you get below that 5th WR, people won't be seeing much playing time. The top 5 are, again, solid. If Apo is the real deal and Jacobson stays healthy (and Heaps plays QB), this unit could move into the "great" category.
TEs: I know the coaches say these new guys are talented, but I'm not sure I buy it. They certainly aren't Pitta and George (who are now on the Ravens and Panthers). There are two "talented" freshmen, two juniors who weren't good enough to see the field the last two years, and two guys coming off missions. I think the TE might be somewhat absent from BYU's repertoire, at least the first half of the season. It will certainly be more absent than last year. This will hurt the most in the red zone, where the TEs could be used as blockers or on play-action as touchdown makers.
OL: obviously there is some concern here because of injuries. However, BYU did the same thing last year and the O-Line turned out to be pretty solid. About half of the penalties on the line last year were called on the lone departure, Center R.J. Willing. The other 4 starters return. There will also be 3 new linemen who fought for starting jobs last year and had season-ending injuries before the season. That's 7 solid linemen, plus the 5 guys who got all of the reps in spring camp because everyone else was injured. So, this should be a very good unit with 4 returning starters and 8 good/experienced players behind them, assuming they get healthy and gel together. I'd like to see a little more toughness from them in the running game, but you can't expect them to do perfectly. They are led by a future 1st round draft pick (according to Todd McShay).
DL: for a team that runs a 3-4 that lost it's top 4 DL, they surprisingly have a lot of experience on this unit. 4 guys played good minutes last year and the year before, at least 2 others were seeing very significant time on special teams. However, I still see a huge dropoff from last year. It starts in the middle: there is only one true nose tackle with Romney Fuga. He's the only guy within a reasonable distance of 300 pounds. The lack of size on the DL is disconcerting. There is some speed off the edge, but that doesn't do much good if teams pound you up the middle. Last year they had this same issue but had some beefy MLBs to back them up, which evened the playing field a bit. This year, they don't have that luxury.
LBs: there is a lot of potential here. But to this point, everyone but Jordan Pendleton is just a "potential" good player. Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, Brandon Ogletree: they might be good. You just don't know. One thing is for sure: this unit will need to play well. The defensive scheme for BYU asks the LBs to do so much more than the other positions. This unit needs to make plays, plain and simple. Last year, Pendleton and Baumann made big plays. The year before, nobody made big plays. The year before that all of the LBs were playmakers. There is a huge difference from year to year. Last year the D was much better than 2008, neither of which were anywhere near as good as the 2007 D. If Pendleton isn't a dominant force, who is going to be? Ideally, you'd like another LB to step up so the former Bingham Miner doesn't have to carry the front 7 by himself.
CBs: a lot of things can and have been said about the history the cornerback position at BYU. They are either really quick but short with no ability to play or the ball or tall but slow with no ability to be close enough to even play the ball at all. I think this year, these guys might actually be better than the traditional BYU CB. Both starters from last year are returning, and they were better than half-decent. Brandon Bradley showed promise last year: he was in on a lot of tackles (4th on the team), however, he didn't get a single interception the entire season (you can't have a starting corner in Division I that didn't get a single pick). He did force two fumbles, though, so at least he's involved in creating turnovers somehow. Brian Logan got better at playing the ball last year as the year went along (he even ended up with 14 pass break-ups, which was one of the best in the country), but he needs to improve dramatically: teams will continue to pick on him because of his size, or lack thereof (his percentage of pass break-ups was not very spectacular). He had 6 or 7 pass interference penalties and also gave up a lot of receptions. Where these two corners definitely excel is in preventing YAC (yards after the catch). The backups are supposedly serviceable. Lee Acquirre played quite a bit last year and played about as well as the starters. Corby Eason and Robbie Buckner were in the hunt for the starting jobs last year and would probably be decent, if playing them became necessary. They lack size, though both are bigger than Logan. In 2011, those two will probably be starting.
Safeties: Andrew Rich is a beast. He led the team in tackles (and it wasn't even close). He tied for the team lead in picks with 4. He was occasionally used as a blitzer, very effectively. He played tough on screens and swing passes. He was all over the field. And he did all of that with injuries to his ankle and shoulder that required surgery in the offseason. Unfortunately, you have to play two safeties. Plus, Rich doesn't have a solid backup either. This is the one position where they are set and screwed at the same time. Rich is the best player on the defense, but they have no quality free safety options. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Rich moves to free safety, since the guys competing for free safety are really strong safeties anyway and he has such a mastery of the defensive schemes. I think that would be a mistake, personally, and I hope they don't do it. If they don't discover a quality free safety, the QB of BYU's D, they might be in trouble, regardless of how well everybody else does.
BYU has plenty of talent. They have mostly bigger, faster, stronger players than last year, but they are definitely much greener. I think the greenies can and will pull out 8 or 9 wins. I don't expect 10, but if they get 6, I will second guess personnel decisions across the board. I'll blame Harvey Unga for his honor code issues. I'll blast recruiting strategies and results. I will pick apart every aspect of the program that I don't agree with. I'm a fan and blogger, so I can do that! Just kidding. I think Bronco is doing a great job. I think the program is miles ahead of where it would be at this time with K-Whit. He's perfect for Utah, Bronco is perfect for BYU. I will, however, be brutally honest with what I think is happening with the program. I think the long-term future looks very bright for the program, though in the short-term some growing pains are to be expected.
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