Leaders Division:
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Purdue
6. Illinois
Legends Division:
1. Nebraska
2. Michigan State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
In terms of expectations for the Legends Division, I think most people would flip Michigan and Michigan State. The model really likes Sparty's experience, offensive line, and easy schedule. Sparty gets a bye before starting Big Ten play at Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, and at Illinois. That lends itself to a very likely 4-0 start before a rivalry game at home against Michigan. The Spartans then get a bye before traveling to Nebraska, which the model calls the only Big Ten loss for Sparty. It's not just that the model likes Michigan State, but it doesn't like Michigan. Michigan's schedule is difficult and I think it'll prove too difficult to finish 2nd in the Legends, where most media and coaches have the Wolverines. They play road games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Northwestern and also get Ohio State and Nebraska at home. My model doesn't like the Wolverines in any of those games (though a few of them are toss-ups).
Looking at the Leaders Division, I don't think my model says anything outstanding. Ohio State is the clear favorite. Wisconsin and Penn State are roughly equivalent for the #2 spot, but Wisconsin hosts NW and Penn State, which is ultimately the difference between Wisconsin and Penn State. Both teams travel to Ohio State, but Penn State has to play Nebraska, Michigan, and Minnesota from the Legends Division, where Wisconsin gets NW, Minnesota, and Iowa.
Indiana hosts Purdue and a win there gives Indiana the 4-spot.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Pac 12
Pac 12 North:
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Washington State
6. California
Pac 12 South:
1. Arizona State
2. USC
3. Arizona
4. Utah
5. UCLA
6. Colorado
South Issues:
I would say the Pac 12 South is where I most disagree with my statistical model, and even then, it's not a big beef, really. I just don't see Arizona State winning the South. I also don't see UCLA finishing 5th (in actuality they are tied for 4th with Utah but the model predicts Utah to beat them at home even though UCLA is the better team). I understand why the model projects these things: USC isn't going to be USC (I feel it in my Kiffin-hating bones and the model backs that up), Arizona State gets its toughest intra-division games at home, and UCLA has a brutal schedule packed with 5 conference road games, all against teams on par with or better than the Bruins (they also have a 6th, and non-conference, road game against Nebraska that falls under that category as well).
USC has a respectable season but drops the crucial South-deciding game at Arizona State. Arizona State then loses the Pac 12 title game by double digits. Colorado is NOT going to a bowl game; I do not think so, and the model certainly agrees. The model gives them 2 wins, but I believe they pull off one upset (sadly, the model would call a season-opening win against Colorado State an upset). Honestly, I'm thinking they can get to 3 or 4 wins this year on their way to bowl eligibility next season. Where they go from there will depend a lot on where the Arizona schools go...somebody has to rise to perennial third fiddle from 2015-2017, and it's going to be Colorado or one of the Zonas, unless Utah can find an offense. And a defense.
North Thoughts:
Stanford and Oregon are both unbeaten heading into their week 11 Thursday night matchup, which Stanford wins at home. Stanford goes on to win at USC the following week and beats a top 10 Notre Dame team (this is my model speaking, not me, I don't personally believe that ND does that well) in its 12th game en route to a Pac 12 Championship game (and ultimately a National Championship game) appearance.
I'd like to think Washington would be better this year, but the harsh reality is that it's tough to win on the road in almost any venue in the Pac 12 and Washington has several tough road games including Stanford, Arizona State, and Oregon State. They have lost to both Stanford and Oregon every season since 2007. I think NEXT year they can beat Stanford again, but they will not beat either team this year. All signs, for me, point to next year being Washington's year. They might arrive a season early and pull off a stunner this season, but I'd be willing to bet that next year they can win the North, even with 5 Pac 12 road games slated for 2014.
The Enigmatic Utes:
Utah continues to hang out in that 4/5 the South after squandering a chance to win the South in 2011 and last season taking their best team since the Sugar Bowl win to a 5-7 record. They need a breakout season soon if this realignment gig is going to work for them in any way besides a nice pay day. Going INTO last season I thought that was their best chance to do it from a quality-of-team standpoint, but the schedule didn't align well for them and it spiraled out of control after early season struggles. The schedule lays out much better this year for them to do it with their first 3 Pac 12 games at home and two very winnable games on the road (Arizona and Washington State), though the team doesn't appear to be any better than last year's 5-7 team.
With that said, I think they are too much of a gimmick offense to succeed in the Pac 12 (something I've stated about their ability to be consistent since Whit took over). They haven't been able to consistently run the ball for a few years now (Ute fans will argue SEASON stats with me), but last year they had 5 games where they rushed for 3.0 yards/carry or less, which, in my mind for the Utes, is equivalent to the Mendoza line in baseball. Their OL size and talent combined with the speed and power at RB make that inexcusable for them, in my opinion. The total stats look good last season but that was bolstered by "pile on" games against Northern Colorado, Cal, Washington State, and Colorado. They also are breaking in 3 new starters on the OL this season. That won't help. Neither will yet another offensive coordinator. I believe this is the 7th OC in 8 years under K-Whit.
Defensively, we'll see how the pass defense is. Utah used to have a dominant pass defense in the MWC, and it wasn't JUST the competition. For anyone to get 200 yards against them, they had to pass 35-40 times. Last season, only 4 teams FAILED to reach 200 yards. Three teams exceeded 300 yards, with 2 of them averaging over 10 yards per ATTEMPT. This season, they break in 3 new starters in the secondary who have minimal experience and whose backups have NO experience.
Like I said, the schedule is kinder this season. They have 3 uphill battles in conference play (Stanford, at USC, at Oregon), but the other 6 games are winnable, even if Utah is not favored in most of those games. The model predicts an upset win over UCLA, but the only other Pac 12 games it likes the Utes in are the final two (after a 5-game losing streak) at Washington State and the season finale against Colorado.
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Washington State
6. California
Pac 12 South:
1. Arizona State
2. USC
3. Arizona
4. Utah
5. UCLA
6. Colorado
South Issues:
I would say the Pac 12 South is where I most disagree with my statistical model, and even then, it's not a big beef, really. I just don't see Arizona State winning the South. I also don't see UCLA finishing 5th (in actuality they are tied for 4th with Utah but the model predicts Utah to beat them at home even though UCLA is the better team). I understand why the model projects these things: USC isn't going to be USC (I feel it in my Kiffin-hating bones and the model backs that up), Arizona State gets its toughest intra-division games at home, and UCLA has a brutal schedule packed with 5 conference road games, all against teams on par with or better than the Bruins (they also have a 6th, and non-conference, road game against Nebraska that falls under that category as well).
USC has a respectable season but drops the crucial South-deciding game at Arizona State. Arizona State then loses the Pac 12 title game by double digits. Colorado is NOT going to a bowl game; I do not think so, and the model certainly agrees. The model gives them 2 wins, but I believe they pull off one upset (sadly, the model would call a season-opening win against Colorado State an upset). Honestly, I'm thinking they can get to 3 or 4 wins this year on their way to bowl eligibility next season. Where they go from there will depend a lot on where the Arizona schools go...somebody has to rise to perennial third fiddle from 2015-2017, and it's going to be Colorado or one of the Zonas, unless Utah can find an offense. And a defense.
North Thoughts:
Stanford and Oregon are both unbeaten heading into their week 11 Thursday night matchup, which Stanford wins at home. Stanford goes on to win at USC the following week and beats a top 10 Notre Dame team (this is my model speaking, not me, I don't personally believe that ND does that well) in its 12th game en route to a Pac 12 Championship game (and ultimately a National Championship game) appearance.
I'd like to think Washington would be better this year, but the harsh reality is that it's tough to win on the road in almost any venue in the Pac 12 and Washington has several tough road games including Stanford, Arizona State, and Oregon State. They have lost to both Stanford and Oregon every season since 2007. I think NEXT year they can beat Stanford again, but they will not beat either team this year. All signs, for me, point to next year being Washington's year. They might arrive a season early and pull off a stunner this season, but I'd be willing to bet that next year they can win the North, even with 5 Pac 12 road games slated for 2014.
The Enigmatic Utes:
Utah continues to hang out in that 4/5 the South after squandering a chance to win the South in 2011 and last season taking their best team since the Sugar Bowl win to a 5-7 record. They need a breakout season soon if this realignment gig is going to work for them in any way besides a nice pay day. Going INTO last season I thought that was their best chance to do it from a quality-of-team standpoint, but the schedule didn't align well for them and it spiraled out of control after early season struggles. The schedule lays out much better this year for them to do it with their first 3 Pac 12 games at home and two very winnable games on the road (Arizona and Washington State), though the team doesn't appear to be any better than last year's 5-7 team.
With that said, I think they are too much of a gimmick offense to succeed in the Pac 12 (something I've stated about their ability to be consistent since Whit took over). They haven't been able to consistently run the ball for a few years now (Ute fans will argue SEASON stats with me), but last year they had 5 games where they rushed for 3.0 yards/carry or less, which, in my mind for the Utes, is equivalent to the Mendoza line in baseball. Their OL size and talent combined with the speed and power at RB make that inexcusable for them, in my opinion. The total stats look good last season but that was bolstered by "pile on" games against Northern Colorado, Cal, Washington State, and Colorado. They also are breaking in 3 new starters on the OL this season. That won't help. Neither will yet another offensive coordinator. I believe this is the 7th OC in 8 years under K-Whit.
Defensively, we'll see how the pass defense is. Utah used to have a dominant pass defense in the MWC, and it wasn't JUST the competition. For anyone to get 200 yards against them, they had to pass 35-40 times. Last season, only 4 teams FAILED to reach 200 yards. Three teams exceeded 300 yards, with 2 of them averaging over 10 yards per ATTEMPT. This season, they break in 3 new starters in the secondary who have minimal experience and whose backups have NO experience.
Like I said, the schedule is kinder this season. They have 3 uphill battles in conference play (Stanford, at USC, at Oregon), but the other 6 games are winnable, even if Utah is not favored in most of those games. The model predicts an upset win over UCLA, but the only other Pac 12 games it likes the Utes in are the final two (after a 5-game losing streak) at Washington State and the season finale against Colorado.
Monday, July 8, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: ACC
ACC Coastal:
1. Miami
2. Georgia Tech
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Duke
Thoughts: This division has ties for 2nd and 6th place, broken by head-to-head. Basically, Virginia Tech and Duke are better than Georgia Tech and Virginia, but they lose a close road game b/c they aren't that much better, according to the model. The model has Duke's loss at Virginia leaving it one game short of making a bowl: but I think Duke does play in a bowl game this year. Miami is definitely a favorite of the model. Their lone predicted loss in the entire season is a 5-point road game at Florida State. The model gives them close wins at home against Florida and at North Carolina. A home game against Virginia Tech and a game at Pittsburgh are also predicted as single-digit games. The game against the Hokies is a one-score affair, where Pittsburgh is projected to lose at home by 9 points.
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. NC State
4. Boston College
5. Syracuse
6. Wake Forest
7. Maryland
Thoughts: Clemson is the favorite to win the division, but Miami is the favorite to win the ACC Title game. Similar to the Coastal division, Florida State is actually rated higher than Clemson but loses a close road game. Clemson does lose to Georgia and at South Carolina and is a 3-point winner at NC State. That seems reasonable to me. In my model's scenario, the ACC would love to see Miami win the Title game since they would be 1-0 against the SEC and Clemson would be 0-2. Personally, I'd have thought BC would be a little lower and Maryland would win at least one game in the ACC. As it is, the model has Maryland in a virtual tie with Kansas as the worst BCS conference team.
The model has North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse all essentially equal in terms of rating. The games between those schools (and the projected standing/record) is entirely decided by the location of the game. Wake Forest has the bad luck of playing BC and Cuse on the road...Duke has even worse luck as it plays at Virginia, at Wake Forest, and at North Carolina.
1. Miami
2. Georgia Tech
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Duke
Thoughts: This division has ties for 2nd and 6th place, broken by head-to-head. Basically, Virginia Tech and Duke are better than Georgia Tech and Virginia, but they lose a close road game b/c they aren't that much better, according to the model. The model has Duke's loss at Virginia leaving it one game short of making a bowl: but I think Duke does play in a bowl game this year. Miami is definitely a favorite of the model. Their lone predicted loss in the entire season is a 5-point road game at Florida State. The model gives them close wins at home against Florida and at North Carolina. A home game against Virginia Tech and a game at Pittsburgh are also predicted as single-digit games. The game against the Hokies is a one-score affair, where Pittsburgh is projected to lose at home by 9 points.
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. NC State
4. Boston College
5. Syracuse
6. Wake Forest
7. Maryland
Thoughts: Clemson is the favorite to win the division, but Miami is the favorite to win the ACC Title game. Similar to the Coastal division, Florida State is actually rated higher than Clemson but loses a close road game. Clemson does lose to Georgia and at South Carolina and is a 3-point winner at NC State. That seems reasonable to me. In my model's scenario, the ACC would love to see Miami win the Title game since they would be 1-0 against the SEC and Clemson would be 0-2. Personally, I'd have thought BC would be a little lower and Maryland would win at least one game in the ACC. As it is, the model has Maryland in a virtual tie with Kansas as the worst BCS conference team.
The model has North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse all essentially equal in terms of rating. The games between those schools (and the projected standing/record) is entirely decided by the location of the game. Wake Forest has the bad luck of playing BC and Cuse on the road...Duke has even worse luck as it plays at Virginia, at Wake Forest, and at North Carolina.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: American and Independents
Happy 4th of July weekend, everyone!
American Athletic Conference:
1. Louisville
2. Rutgers
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. Connecticut
8. USF
9. SMU
10. Memphis
Thoughts: I expected Cincinnati to push Louisville at the top spot, I expected Temple to be a little lower (and obviously I expected Rutgers lower if I thought Cincy would be 2nd), and I thought UCF and SMU would be a bit higher. The model puts Louisville as a heavy favorite in all but 2 games (at Temple and at Cincinnati).
Independents:
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Old Dominion
4. Navy
5. New Mexico State
6. Army
7. Idaho
Thoughts: there are a lot more independents than there should be! My model likes Notre Dame and has them as a top 10 team, but playing the 7th most difficult schedule in the nation. BYU doesn't look as good on paper and plays the most difficult schedule in school history. Old Dominion plays 7 FCS schools and should have a great record. Navy should go bowling New Mexico State and Idaho should rethink the viability of their football programs. Army needs to do something good this season...it's sad watching them sometimes.
American Athletic Conference:
1. Louisville
2. Rutgers
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. Connecticut
8. USF
9. SMU
10. Memphis
Thoughts: I expected Cincinnati to push Louisville at the top spot, I expected Temple to be a little lower (and obviously I expected Rutgers lower if I thought Cincy would be 2nd), and I thought UCF and SMU would be a bit higher. The model puts Louisville as a heavy favorite in all but 2 games (at Temple and at Cincinnati).
Independents:
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Old Dominion
4. Navy
5. New Mexico State
6. Army
7. Idaho
Thoughts: there are a lot more independents than there should be! My model likes Notre Dame and has them as a top 10 team, but playing the 7th most difficult schedule in the nation. BYU doesn't look as good on paper and plays the most difficult schedule in school history. Old Dominion plays 7 FCS schools and should have a great record. Navy should go bowling New Mexico State and Idaho should rethink the viability of their football programs. Army needs to do something good this season...it's sad watching them sometimes.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: CUSA and MWC
Be sure to chime in on the polls on the right hand side of the page.
CUSA East:
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
UAB
Southern Mississippi
FAU
FIU
CUSA West:
Rice
Tulsa
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
UTEP
Thoughts: This is really the first place where I disagree with my model. My "gut" would put Middle Tennessee in 4th in the East below UAB, but my model really likes them in their first year stepping out of the Sun Belt into CUSA. With that said, I'm not sure CUSA will ever field a relevant team again after losing its best teams to the AAC. Rice is a potential sleeper coming out of the West. My model actually puts them within a TD at Texas A&M, they host Tulsa, and they avoid ECU in crossover action. ECU has 5 games that the model says will be decided by 5 points or less. If they go 5-0 in those games, perhaps there could be a battle of ranked opponents in the CUSA title game.
MWC West:
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii
MWC Mountain:
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. New Mexico
Thoughts: Again, my model doesn't seem to "penalize" teams switching conferences where competition will be significantly more difficult. Utah State and San Jose State both had great seasons last year, switched to better conferences, and lost their coaches. Only 1 of those 3 would point to a successful 2013 campaign. My model likes both of those teams though. I believe CSU is a potential surprise team this year, as does my model, but if I were a betting man, I'd trust Air Force to finish ahead of them in the standings. I'd also put money on Hawaii climbing out of the cellar ahead of UNLV.
The model puts Fresno at 12-0, but with narrow wins against Rutgers, Boise, at SJSU, and at SDSU. Utah State has 5 games that should be within a TD (including the game at USC), if they can pull off 3 or 4 of those, it could be a special season in Logan. My gut says 1 or 2 is closer to reality. The model gives them 3 wins, with the Utah game a 1-point loss and the Boise State game a 2-point win (i.e. toss-ups).
CUSA East:
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
UAB
Southern Mississippi
FAU
FIU
CUSA West:
Rice
Tulsa
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
UTEP
Thoughts: This is really the first place where I disagree with my model. My "gut" would put Middle Tennessee in 4th in the East below UAB, but my model really likes them in their first year stepping out of the Sun Belt into CUSA. With that said, I'm not sure CUSA will ever field a relevant team again after losing its best teams to the AAC. Rice is a potential sleeper coming out of the West. My model actually puts them within a TD at Texas A&M, they host Tulsa, and they avoid ECU in crossover action. ECU has 5 games that the model says will be decided by 5 points or less. If they go 5-0 in those games, perhaps there could be a battle of ranked opponents in the CUSA title game.
MWC West:
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii
MWC Mountain:
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. New Mexico
Thoughts: Again, my model doesn't seem to "penalize" teams switching conferences where competition will be significantly more difficult. Utah State and San Jose State both had great seasons last year, switched to better conferences, and lost their coaches. Only 1 of those 3 would point to a successful 2013 campaign. My model likes both of those teams though. I believe CSU is a potential surprise team this year, as does my model, but if I were a betting man, I'd trust Air Force to finish ahead of them in the standings. I'd also put money on Hawaii climbing out of the cellar ahead of UNLV.
The model puts Fresno at 12-0, but with narrow wins against Rutgers, Boise, at SJSU, and at SDSU. Utah State has 5 games that should be within a TD (including the game at USC), if they can pull off 3 or 4 of those, it could be a special season in Logan. My gut says 1 or 2 is closer to reality. The model gives them 3 wins, with the Utah game a 1-point loss and the Boise State game a 2-point win (i.e. toss-ups).
Monday, July 1, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Sun Belt and MAC
Happy Realignment Day everyone! Every year on July 1st, we get to celebrate teams selling out for more money, better competition, or getting out of a bad situation for a less bad situation. So...yeah!
Now, I have put together my predictive model for the 2013 season. There are clearly a few flaws in it, but overall, I think it does a good job quantifying my gut with two major exceptions. First, it doesn't do a great job evaluating those teams that tend to play better than the sum of their parts such as: the service academies, Boise State, BYU, and, more recently, Vanderbilt. Air Force is the smallest team in Division I football every season. Navy never gets better than a 2-star recruit. Yet these two teams are consistent bowl teams. Army isn't quite up to that level, but they typically get 2-4 wins when conventional wisdom would say they should get beat every game...second, I don't feel it properly adjusts for conference realignment. Some teams are better set-up to thrive in new conference surroundings (see Texas A&M's hurry-up, wide open, SEC hasn't seen anything like it offense) while others are destined for failure (see Utah's inability to recruit any depth on the offensive side of the ball in an offensive-minded league).
Without further ado, here is what the model predicts in terms of standings for non-BCS leagues:
Sun Belt:
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Western Kentucky
4. Arkansas State
5. Troy
6. Texas State
7. Georgia State
8. South Alabama
Thoughts: No one really cares about the Sun Belt outside of the Sun Belt, I get that. But...Louisiana is one of the more fun teams in the country to watch. I think their fan base is where the inspiration for Water Boy came from...
MAC West:
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Central Michigan
5. Western Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan
MAC East:
1. Bowling Green
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Buffalo
5. Miami (OH)
6. Akron
7. Massachusetts
Thoughts: Northern Illinois could be poised to have another great season. On paper, they are significantly better than everyone on their schedule, with road games at Purdue and Toledo being the only difficult challenges. If they managed a 12-1 or 13-0 season, would they be rewarded with a BCS berth? Or will voters remember last season's debacle in the BCS? My model ranks NIU's schedule as the 2nd easiest schedule of any team in the country. The only team with an easier schedule? Old Dominion! And they are transitioning to an FBS school over the next two years and play 7 FCS schools...13-0 should be expected. Even that might not be enough to warrant a BCS bid, honestly...
Now, I have put together my predictive model for the 2013 season. There are clearly a few flaws in it, but overall, I think it does a good job quantifying my gut with two major exceptions. First, it doesn't do a great job evaluating those teams that tend to play better than the sum of their parts such as: the service academies, Boise State, BYU, and, more recently, Vanderbilt. Air Force is the smallest team in Division I football every season. Navy never gets better than a 2-star recruit. Yet these two teams are consistent bowl teams. Army isn't quite up to that level, but they typically get 2-4 wins when conventional wisdom would say they should get beat every game...second, I don't feel it properly adjusts for conference realignment. Some teams are better set-up to thrive in new conference surroundings (see Texas A&M's hurry-up, wide open, SEC hasn't seen anything like it offense) while others are destined for failure (see Utah's inability to recruit any depth on the offensive side of the ball in an offensive-minded league).
Without further ado, here is what the model predicts in terms of standings for non-BCS leagues:
Sun Belt:
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Western Kentucky
4. Arkansas State
5. Troy
6. Texas State
7. Georgia State
8. South Alabama
Thoughts: No one really cares about the Sun Belt outside of the Sun Belt, I get that. But...Louisiana is one of the more fun teams in the country to watch. I think their fan base is where the inspiration for Water Boy came from...
MAC West:
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Central Michigan
5. Western Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan
MAC East:
1. Bowling Green
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Buffalo
5. Miami (OH)
6. Akron
7. Massachusetts
Thoughts: Northern Illinois could be poised to have another great season. On paper, they are significantly better than everyone on their schedule, with road games at Purdue and Toledo being the only difficult challenges. If they managed a 12-1 or 13-0 season, would they be rewarded with a BCS berth? Or will voters remember last season's debacle in the BCS? My model ranks NIU's schedule as the 2nd easiest schedule of any team in the country. The only team with an easier schedule? Old Dominion! And they are transitioning to an FBS school over the next two years and play 7 FCS schools...13-0 should be expected. Even that might not be enough to warrant a BCS bid, honestly...
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