MWC Bowls, 2010, Week Twelve

A lot is being said about possible bowl scenarios in all of college football.  Several of you loyal readers have asked me about the possible MWC scenarios.  So here is my summary of the MWC bowls.

The Bowls
Las Vegas
Poinsettia
Independence
Armed Forces
New Mexico

The Army Issue
Let me just clear up one confusion on the issue of the Armed Forces Bowl: Army cannot be selected ahead of an eligible MWC team.  Several news sources have reported this in recent days.  However, according to the Armed Forces Bowl web site, they can only take Army as a backup if either the C-USA or MWC does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams.  C-USA will definitely fill their slot.  BYU needs only to beat either New Mexico or Utah, and the MWC will fill its Armed Forces Bowl slot.

The following scenarios are based upon TCU playing in a BCS game.

The Good Old Las Vegas Bowl
The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will, in all likelihood, take the winner of the Utah-SDSU game (or the highest ranked MWC team, which I believe will be the winner of that game).  With a win, SDSU would be ranked in the top 25 going in to their final game with UNLV.  With a win, Utah would solidify their top 25 ranking and would finish there regardless of their result in the BYU game.  It is possible that Utah, even with a loss at SDSU, could finish in the top 25 with a win against BYU.  The opponent will likely not be a Pac 10 team, as contracted, since the Pac 10 is going to struggle to fill its bowl slots and the Vegas Bowl is way down the list.  It is most likely that it will be a MAC or Big East team.  If conferences cannot fill their slots, all 7-5 teams must be selected before any 6-6 teams.  Since the MAC and Big East are the most likely to have "extra" 7-5 teams, it is likely that the Vegas Bowl will be "stuck" with one of them to replace the Pac 10.

Poinsettia
The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl will probably take the loser of the Utah-SDSU game.  If Utah or SDSU loses its next two games, that changes the scenario a bit, opening the door for an 8-4 Air Force team to get picked in this bowl.  Utah would have lost 4 in a row to close the season at 8-4 or SDSU would have lost 3 in a row to finish the season 7-5 in those scenarios.  Air Force might be a better option in either of those cases.  Navy will be the opponent.  How much would the bowl want an Air Force-Navy rematch?  I don't know the answer to that question.

Independence
The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl has the next selection.  It would be hard to imagine them passing up on an 8-4 Air Force team, especially in favor of a 6-6 or 7-5 BYU team that got crushed by Air Force earlier in the season.  If Air Force moves up to a higher bowl, BYU would probably get the nod over SDSU (and a 7-5 BYU team would probably get the nod over an 8-4 Utah team).  Otherwise, Air Force is the obvious choice here.  The opponent will be the 7th selection from the ACC bowl-eligible teams.  The current candidates are: Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.  Could they match Georgia Tech with Air Force, two triple option offenses?  Boston College will probably have the best record of the 3 choices.  North Carolina is also a possibility to fall this far if they drop their final two games.

Armed Forces
The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl gets the 4th selection and will probably get BYU, or SDSU/Utah if they fall past the Poinsettia Bowl.  There is no choice for the Armed Forces Bowl, they get whatever MWC team is left, assuming BYU is bowl-eligible.  The opponent will be a Conference USA team, I believe they get the 4th selection, but I could not verify that information.  No matter what selection they get, the scenarios are too complicated with C-USA right now to even begin to extrapolate a guess.  The game is played at SMU's stadium this season (due to renovations to TCU's stadium), so they could be an attractive option if they are bowl-eligible.

New Mexico
If the New Mexico Bowl wants an MWC team, they need the hometown New Mexico Lobos to upset the TCU Horned Frogs in two weeks.  Otherwise, they are probably going to have to figure out TWO new teams to play.  The tie-ins are MWC and WAC, neither of which look likely to fill out their bowl slots.  The MAC vs. Army?