Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Eleven

Crossing the 50
BYU had 12 drives on the right side of the 50-yard line.  This yielded 55 points.  This is significant for 2 reasons: 1) BYU had a lot of drives on the right side of the 50, 2) BYU scored on most of those drives.  It helped that the opposing defense was not capable of stopping BYU on the ground or through the air and that the opposing offense only crossed the 50 three times all game.

So was this a result of a bad opponent or BYU getting in sync?  You would have to say it was both.  There were holes to run through because of good blocking on BYU's part and poor technique on UNLV's part.  The BYU backs were hitting the holes hard, making defenders miss and the second level of the UNLV defense was filling the gaps well but not tackling well.  BYU WRs were running good routes, getting open, and (mostly) catching the ball and UNLV DBs were getting turned around and out of position.  BYU played well.  UNLV played poorly.  It takes both for as thorough of a beatdown as this was.

CUllapse (Denver Post Headline)
This was the most well-written headline I have seen in a long time.  CU had the second biggest collapse in the history of FBS football.  All the credit in the world goes to Kansas for not quitting, but if you are incapable of salting away a 28-point fourth quarter lead, you stink.  What was worse: it didn't even take OT for them to lose!  35 unanswered points in one quarter!  The end result was the firing of Dan Hawkins after a lot of very bad seasons in a row.  I read today that it was the second biggest comeback win: Ty Detmer and BYU had the biggest comeback against Washington State in 1990.  I did not check that statistic, but I like it if it is true!

National Championship Update
This race has really tightened up in the past 3 weeks.  I feel it safe to say that the two teams playing for the National Championship will come from these teams:
Oregon (just has to win out)
Auburn (just has to win out)
TCU (just has to win convincingly, hope for Auburn or Oregon loss, and Utah/Baylor to keep winning)
Boise State (has to win in big fashion, have Utah and Baylor lose at least one more time each, have Virginia Tech win out including the ACC Championship Game, have Hawaii keep winning, and have Nevada keep winning until they play the Broncos)
LSU (Auburn must lose TWICE, and LSU needs to win out, including the SEC championship game)
Stanford (this is the longest shot of the contenders and is probably realistically out of the equation unless a LOT of teams ahead of them lose, they need three BIG wins to close the season, they need Oregon to lose, and 2 of the three teams ahead of them not named LSU to lose, if LSU does not win the SEC West, they will not play for the National Championship)

BCS Computers
So let me explain, as briefly as possible, how the BCS Computers work.  Several of you have asked me about this since my claim that Boise State would close a lot of the gap on TCU if both keep winning.  Last week, Boise State had a computer percentage ranking of .800 and TCU had a ranking of .910.  This week TCU jumped to .950 and Boise State went to .790.  Those scores are arrived at in the following manner: there are 6 computer scores, the best score and worst score get dropped.  The four remaining computer scores are given a point value as follows: 1st place in a computer poll is worth 25 points, 2nd place is worth 24 points, 3rd place is worth 23 points, etc.  The points from the four computer rankings are added together, and are divided by 100.

The computer formulas themselves are a varied combination of a team's record and the difficulty of their opponents/schedule.  TCU is 10-0.  Boise State is only 8-0.  TCU has a "better" record than Boise State.  However, if both teams finish 12-0, that advantage for TCU is nonexistent.  The next part is the difficulty of the opponents and schedules.  As of now, TCU's average ranking of opponent (in the Sagarin ratings) is 80.6.  Boise State's is 84.375.  So TCU is receiving a bump in their computer numbers because of a slightly tougher strength of schedule.  Assuming a static ranking of opponents (which isn't going to happen, but for argument's sake I have to set some assumption), at the end of 12 games, TCU's average opponent is 85.75 and Boise State's is 80-even.  TCU will no longer have a better record than Boise State and they will no longer have a tougher strength of schedule than Boise State.  Boise State can catch TCU in the computer polls, and could even pass them.  Obviously that is a simplistic approach.

The other factor in the computer formula to note: if TCU is 2nd, just barely out of 1st place, and Boise State is way behind but still in 3rd, just barely ahead of 4th place, TCU only receives 1 more point than Boise State, regardless of the distance between them.  The only number that matters in the computer polls is the final ranking awarded.

Who remains ahead in the BCS rankings will probably come down to the final human polls.  Even if my overly simplistic review of the computer numbers isn't an entirely accurate representation of how the computers will shake out, it is thorough enough to show that Boise State and TCU will be much closer in the final computer polls than they currently are.  If the computer numbers are close, it comes down to the human polls.

The next question is: does Boise State have any chance to jump TCU in the human polls?  Absolutely.  This week, Boise State plays a road game at Idaho on national TV (ESPN2) on a Friday night while TCU plays San Diego State on non-existent TV on a Saturday, right alongside everyone else in the country.  Next week, Boise State plays Fresno State, a respected and recognized opponent, on ESPN on a Friday night, while TCU is idle.  The following week, Boise State plays a nationally ranked opponent, Nevada, the day after Thanksgiving on ESPN on the road.  TCU plays woeful New Mexico, on an MWC-inspired, and therefore essentially non-existent, TV network.  Again.  The final week, Boise State plays Utah State while TCU is idle.

At that time, voters will have time to regroup and evaluate the teams prior to the final BCS standings.  If Utah and Baylor lose additional games while Virginia Tech ends up being the ACC champion, the two could certainly flip places again in the human polls (and might even flip in the computer polls at that time as well).  They could even flip if Boise State beats a ranked Nevada team on the road handily.  In this "what have you done for me lately" college football world, Boise State will have done a lot more, and a lot later, than TCU.  Bronco fans, do not give up.  You do not need TCU to lose.  Just win, baby!  The rest will take care of itself.