BYU @ Notre Dame Prediction, 11/23/2013

What BYU Has Faced So Far
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year.  Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense.  I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses.  Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.

With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU.  Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air.  Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points.  BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.

Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule.  Considering those handicaps, 34th is great.  Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses.  So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.

There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense.  If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically.  If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...

Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win.  Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games.  Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat.  Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium.  BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.

Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense.  In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers.  In their 7 wins, they have 5.  If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game.  If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory.  On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!

Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game.  I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome.  The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory.  This game will be decided by inches.  One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday.  My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious.  Notre Dame 20, BYU 16