I knew as soon as I made a post about BYU hoops earlier this week that their 5-game winning streak was going to end. And it happened in about as excruciating painful a manner as possible. After trailing by 7 with 27 seconds left in OT, BYU makes the improbable comeback to send it to double OT. Then, after leading by 7 with 1:47 left in double OT, they blow it. BYU didn't show up for the third OT until it was too late.
Game over. NCAA Tournament hopes over. I think there is some serious frustration with Cougar Nation in 2013-2014 seasons. I've said this privately to a few people but now I will post: I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU sports.
If BYU doesn't make waves in football soon, the Independent experiment will fail. If that fails, football will cease to have ANY relevance and ESPN will not renew their contract, or if they do, BYU will end up with probably less money and probably worse TV time slots. If that happens, BYU football is done. They have the schedule to win 10 or 11 games in 2014, but unfortunately, that means it wouldn't really impress people unless they win 12.
BYU basketball will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. They lose Mika next season, which will be a big miss for the Cougars. They have been exposed for the lack of depth inside, and the loss of Mika will only make that weakness bigger. There are currently no players to to fill that void. Both of the incoming freshmen big men plan to go directly on their missions. A third "wild card" (i.e. not really highly regarded by any recruiting web site) is in the mix, but at 6'10" 200 pounds, is perhaps a little thin to address BYU's issues. Jamal Aytes will be eligible, basically just for WCC play after transferring from UNLV, but he's a little on the shorter side (6'6" but definitely beefier and more athletic at 230 pounds). Next year, BYU will be loaded with seniors. However, if there isn't a big in the middle, BYU will be in serious trouble against decent competition. If they miss the tourney a 3rd straight year, I don't see how they recover.
If BYU loses relevance in football, they lose their fanbase. They lose their football fanbase, they lose some attention to basketball. If BYU can't retain its own fans, how will they grow? Credit to BYU for putting together tough schedules, but they have to win some of those games. BYU didn't win many of them this season in football and won none of them in basketball. Win. Or it's over. It may be over anyway, if the Big Five Conferences have their way, BYU and the rest will forever be sitting in the shadows...
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
BYU Hoops on 1/21/2014
Twists and Turns
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
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