Terrell Pryor is not my favorite college football player in the world. He further alienated me recently when he complained that his offense was suitable to his talents and if he ran the same offense as Cam Newton, he would "dominate college football." It is hard to feel sorry for a guy who had the choice to go to Michigan and run an offense more suitable to his talents that would allow him to dominate, but he chose a better program with a better chance at Championships. It is hard for me to feel sorry for a guy who has three, er, make that two now, Big Ten Championship rings. It is hard for me to feel sorry for a guy who is as arrogant and lucky as he is: if he played anywhere but Ohio State, he'd be a nobody on a team with very few wins...K, enough about Terrell Pryor being an idiot, now to the point.
A lot has been said about the NCAA, BCS games, etc. as it pertains to the handing down of punishments for the Ohio State players. Here is where I take issue with it: Reggie Bush knowingly violated the rules, in which he was thoroughly educated by USC. USC may or may not have known about his rule-breaking, and may or may not have done anything about it. USC gets the hammer dropped on them by the NCAA. They get NO bowl games for two years. They are punishing the University and the current group of players by taking away that "award" of playing in a bowl game.
Ohio State did not properly educate Terrell Pryor on what he could and could not do as an amateur. However, Pryor is (and his other Buckeye Hoodlums are) being punished for the crime, while the university gets a verbal warning. The players who actually committed the offense are allowed to play in a bowl game, and will not be suspended until the 2011 season, because bowl games are a reward and the NCAA doesn't want to take them away from these players who worked so hard on the field, while breaking rules off the field. However, at USC, that reward was taken away from every player, none of whom did anything wrong! They punished an entire university and its current players for the actions of one single, former player who knowingly violated the rules. Now they are punishing players (in a very delayed and counter-intuitive manner) for an omission of the university. I realize they are different situations, but they seem like they were handled by two entirely different governing bodies with entirely different rules of enforcement. How can the NCAA punish the wrong people in both cases, and do it in very bad timing, and feel justified in its actions?
That is not even to mention that Cam Newton does not get in any trouble for his dad trying to sell his services to the highest bidder. If I'm the dad of a popular high school player, I definitely shop his services, without his knowledge, knowing that he could not possibly get in trouble for it. Nice loophole you created for yourselves, NCAA!
In my mind, the NCAA's handling of college football continues to be a joke. I am not even sure the NCAA is running the show any more: BCS Executive Director Bill Hancock probably has to approve any and all rulings made by the NCAA, at least for rulings on schools that belong in 6 certain conferences...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Shake-Up on BYU Offensive Staff
My father writes:
This is unpublished, hot off the presses news that can be found no where else. Mark Atuaia, a former running back at BYU and a soon to be law school graduate at the Y and a current assistant coach who can be seen on TV during telecasts will be the new running backs coach at BYU along with Ty Detmer who will coach the QB's. I have an unimpeachable source so you can run with it. I am not sure on the spelling of his last name. He played in the 90's.
Mo Writes:
Atuaia played with Detmer before his mission and Sarkisian after. He was more of a pass-catcher than a runner. He is a very recognizable face: he is always standing behind Bronco when they show pictures of Bronco on TV.
Based on this news, if it is news: Doman would certainly become the Offensive Coordinator, since Bronco obviously feels very highly about him. That means RB Coach Lance Reynolds would be gone, which means that perhaps Matt Reynolds leaves early for the NFL. This is pure speculation on my part...
This is unpublished, hot off the presses news that can be found no where else. Mark Atuaia, a former running back at BYU and a soon to be law school graduate at the Y and a current assistant coach who can be seen on TV during telecasts will be the new running backs coach at BYU along with Ty Detmer who will coach the QB's. I have an unimpeachable source so you can run with it. I am not sure on the spelling of his last name. He played in the 90's.
Mo Writes:
Atuaia played with Detmer before his mission and Sarkisian after. He was more of a pass-catcher than a runner. He is a very recognizable face: he is always standing behind Bronco when they show pictures of Bronco on TV.
Based on this news, if it is news: Doman would certainly become the Offensive Coordinator, since Bronco obviously feels very highly about him. That means RB Coach Lance Reynolds would be gone, which means that perhaps Matt Reynolds leaves early for the NFL. This is pure speculation on my part...
Friday, December 24, 2010
Tis The Season...
Merry Christmas, everyone! Take the holiday opportunity to spend time with family and friends. So stop reading my blog for a few days and enjoy your children, families, and the reason we take this time off every year: to watch bowl games...er, to celebrate Christmas and the birth of our Savior, and then to ring in the new year, full of hope and promise and a chance to start again with a clean slate.
Take this opportunity to ponder your life, your priorities, and vow to take a better approach in the coming year. Write it down and look at it and stick to it. Enjoy the time, and don't come back for a few days! I thought to give a Christmas present to you all as a brief preview of BYU's 2011 football schedule, but instead, my gift to you is silence! Merry Christmas! And God bless us, every one!
Take this opportunity to ponder your life, your priorities, and vow to take a better approach in the coming year. Write it down and look at it and stick to it. Enjoy the time, and don't come back for a few days! I thought to give a Christmas present to you all as a brief preview of BYU's 2011 football schedule, but instead, my gift to you is silence! Merry Christmas! And God bless us, every one!
Thursday, December 23, 2010
2010 Poinsettia Recap, 2011 SDSU Look-Ahead
I was feeling pretty good about my prediction as Navy came out of halftime and marched all the way downfield. As I watched the ball sail through the hands of the wide open Bo Snelson on fourth and goal, that good feeling. The game changed right then and there. Navy never really threatened on offense again the rest of the game. The defense had to take more risks and gave up more big plays as a result.
Navy made a nice offensive adjustment by running away from the motion, and SDSU took a quarter and a half to adjust to it, but once they did, it was lights out, game over, go home. There isn't much more to say than that. SDSU was better prepared, and made an adjustment when Navy did. 35-14.
This sets the stage for SDSU for 2011. They do lose a few key players on offense, including DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown, but they bring back a load of other good ones. Included in those coming back are Ryan Lindley, Ronnie Hillman, 3rd WR Dominique Sandifer, Gavin Escobar (who had a nice year at TE for SDSU), and 8 of the 10 guys on the two-deep at Offensive Line.
They bring back a lot of experience in the front 7 on defense, including a very talented freshman class that played a lot and fared pretty well. In the secondary they are only losing two of the ten guys who rotated in and out. With a 9-4 season, a bowl win, and so much coming back, they should have the upper hand going into the MWC season against TCU and Boise State, who are great teams/programs, but are losing so much on both sides of the ball. If Rich Rod stays at Michigan, look for SDSU to finish in the top 2 in the MWC (if Rich Rod gets fired, Brady Hoke would probably be tops on their list to replace him as he has had head coaching success after being an assistant for Michigan's 1997 National Championship team: he's a defensive-minded coach and Michigan has had an horrific defense for about 5 years now).
Navy made a nice offensive adjustment by running away from the motion, and SDSU took a quarter and a half to adjust to it, but once they did, it was lights out, game over, go home. There isn't much more to say than that. SDSU was better prepared, and made an adjustment when Navy did. 35-14.
This sets the stage for SDSU for 2011. They do lose a few key players on offense, including DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown, but they bring back a load of other good ones. Included in those coming back are Ryan Lindley, Ronnie Hillman, 3rd WR Dominique Sandifer, Gavin Escobar (who had a nice year at TE for SDSU), and 8 of the 10 guys on the two-deep at Offensive Line.
They bring back a lot of experience in the front 7 on defense, including a very talented freshman class that played a lot and fared pretty well. In the secondary they are only losing two of the ten guys who rotated in and out. With a 9-4 season, a bowl win, and so much coming back, they should have the upper hand going into the MWC season against TCU and Boise State, who are great teams/programs, but are losing so much on both sides of the ball. If Rich Rod stays at Michigan, look for SDSU to finish in the top 2 in the MWC (if Rich Rod gets fired, Brady Hoke would probably be tops on their list to replace him as he has had head coaching success after being an assistant for Michigan's 1997 National Championship team: he's a defensive-minded coach and Michigan has had an horrific defense for about 5 years now).
Navy-SDSU 2010 Poinsettia Bowl Preview
In the MWC's next bowl, upstart SDSU takes on the uber-consistent Naval Academy and its triple option attack. The biggest factor in this game is the weather. The field is supposedly water-logged (though the stadium chairs have all been washed clean with 8 inches of rain over the past 3 or 4 days).
SDSU O vs. Navy D
The Aztecs have a great freshman RB in Ronnie Hillman, but make no mistake about it: they want to throw the ball. With Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, I'd throw the ball all over the place too.
Navy has done well at managing points but have given up lots of yards on the ground and through the air. In the games that I have seen, they tighten up as teams approach the 30. The sloppy conditions could play well for Navy's D, as Hillman will not be able to cut in the running game, and the routes of Brown and Sampson will be limited.
Still, SDSU has a speed and size advantage, plus a home-field advantage. I would anticipate them to put up at least 20 points against Navy, and they could be a few big plays from putting up 40.
Navy O vs. SDSU D
When a team plays Navy, they know they are going to see a lot of running, however, it takes discipline. Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long is known as a discipline guy, but his New Mexico teams frequently had problems stopping Air Force's Triple Option attack, and the 2010 Naval Academy is better than any of the Air Force offenses that Long couldn't stop.
Ricky Dobbs gives Navy a passing attack they have not usually had. WR Greg Jones had a couple of 100-yard receiving games. Dobbs also likes to hit RB Aaron Santiago as he sneaks out of the backfield in the red zone. Navy is a fun offense to watch because they are not just the typical triple option attack. It's not all FB dive, FB dive, QB run, FB, dive, QB pitch. They run a lot of sweeps, play-action pass, reverses, designed QB runs, etc. The triple option very often thrives in muddy conditions (if the offense can avoid fumbles): one slip by any defensive player is the difference between stopping a play and giving up a big one.
SDSU does not do anything particularly well defensively, and while they have a decent statistical rushing defense, that can be a little misleading. BYU rushed for 271 yards against them, Air Force went for 312, and TCU managed 226. Those were really the only teams that tried to run the ball against them, logging over 50 rushing attempts in those games. Navy should manage 50 rushing attempts against them. The main questions are going to be: can they break 300 rushing and can they break 100 passing? They will likely need both to put up at least 24 points against SDSU (unless they run for over 400 or somehow pass for over 200).
Prediction
SDSU is excited about playing in a bowl game for the first time in over a decade. That can be good and bad. Brady Hoke is coaching in only his second bowl game ever, having lost the only other one by 22 points to Rutgers following the 2007 season at Ball State. Contrast that to Navy: the seniors have played in a bowl game every season. Ken Niumatalolo is coaching in his 4th bowl game (though his first one he coached as an interim coach after Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech). He is 1-2, having lost by 3 to Utah as the interim coach in the Poinsettia Bowl, lost by 10 to Wake Forest in the Eagle Bank Bowl, and thumping Missouri 35-13 last season in the Texas Bowl. Coaching edge: Navy. Motivation edge: Even. Home-field edge: SDSU. Ability/Execution Level edge: Navy. Playing in the Slop edge: Navy. Winner: Navy.
I really believe SDSU could win this game, and perhaps should win this game. It would be a great springboard into next season, where I think they should be a favorite to win the MWC (although they won't be), even with TCU and Boise State. But Navy's seniors, of which there are many, are too proud to fall in front of the folks stationed at the large Naval Base in San Diego. Navy gets it done: Navy 27, SDSU 20.
SDSU O vs. Navy D
The Aztecs have a great freshman RB in Ronnie Hillman, but make no mistake about it: they want to throw the ball. With Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, I'd throw the ball all over the place too.
Navy has done well at managing points but have given up lots of yards on the ground and through the air. In the games that I have seen, they tighten up as teams approach the 30. The sloppy conditions could play well for Navy's D, as Hillman will not be able to cut in the running game, and the routes of Brown and Sampson will be limited.
Still, SDSU has a speed and size advantage, plus a home-field advantage. I would anticipate them to put up at least 20 points against Navy, and they could be a few big plays from putting up 40.
Navy O vs. SDSU D
When a team plays Navy, they know they are going to see a lot of running, however, it takes discipline. Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long is known as a discipline guy, but his New Mexico teams frequently had problems stopping Air Force's Triple Option attack, and the 2010 Naval Academy is better than any of the Air Force offenses that Long couldn't stop.
Ricky Dobbs gives Navy a passing attack they have not usually had. WR Greg Jones had a couple of 100-yard receiving games. Dobbs also likes to hit RB Aaron Santiago as he sneaks out of the backfield in the red zone. Navy is a fun offense to watch because they are not just the typical triple option attack. It's not all FB dive, FB dive, QB run, FB, dive, QB pitch. They run a lot of sweeps, play-action pass, reverses, designed QB runs, etc. The triple option very often thrives in muddy conditions (if the offense can avoid fumbles): one slip by any defensive player is the difference between stopping a play and giving up a big one.
SDSU does not do anything particularly well defensively, and while they have a decent statistical rushing defense, that can be a little misleading. BYU rushed for 271 yards against them, Air Force went for 312, and TCU managed 226. Those were really the only teams that tried to run the ball against them, logging over 50 rushing attempts in those games. Navy should manage 50 rushing attempts against them. The main questions are going to be: can they break 300 rushing and can they break 100 passing? They will likely need both to put up at least 24 points against SDSU (unless they run for over 400 or somehow pass for over 200).
Prediction
SDSU is excited about playing in a bowl game for the first time in over a decade. That can be good and bad. Brady Hoke is coaching in only his second bowl game ever, having lost the only other one by 22 points to Rutgers following the 2007 season at Ball State. Contrast that to Navy: the seniors have played in a bowl game every season. Ken Niumatalolo is coaching in his 4th bowl game (though his first one he coached as an interim coach after Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech). He is 1-2, having lost by 3 to Utah as the interim coach in the Poinsettia Bowl, lost by 10 to Wake Forest in the Eagle Bank Bowl, and thumping Missouri 35-13 last season in the Texas Bowl. Coaching edge: Navy. Motivation edge: Even. Home-field edge: SDSU. Ability/Execution Level edge: Navy. Playing in the Slop edge: Navy. Winner: Navy.
I really believe SDSU could win this game, and perhaps should win this game. It would be a great springboard into next season, where I think they should be a favorite to win the MWC (although they won't be), even with TCU and Boise State. But Navy's seniors, of which there are many, are too proud to fall in front of the folks stationed at the large Naval Base in San Diego. Navy gets it done: Navy 27, SDSU 20.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Boise State 26, Utah 3
Offensive Play
Well, the result wasn't too surprising. Going into the game, even if they had a healthy Jordan Wynn, I just had a hard time seeing how Utah was going to put up points against this Boise State defense. Utah has gone away from their power-running game the past month, and to try to outspeed Boise State on the perimeter is impossible for almost all non-SEC teams.
The bad news for Utah fans: they lose their 3 best RBs (Eddie Wide III and Matt Asiata graduate and Sausin Shakerin had a career-ending injury), 2 of their 3 best WRs (Jereme Brooks and Shaky Smithson), their backup QB (Terrance Cain), 2 of their starting OL (Caleb Schlauderoff and Zane Taylor), their K (Joe Phillips), and their All-American PR/KR (Shaky Smithson). They will not see any defenses as good as the Broncos, but they only put up 17 at home against BYU and 3 on the road against Notre Dame: they will see better defenses than that. Where will the points come from next season? Can DeVonte Christopher carry the load without a Jereme Brooks, and without any real threat of a running game, to take some of the heat off of him?
Does anybody have confidence in Utah's offense being able to put up the 28 points/game they will need to win the Pac 12 South? With Dave Schramm and Aaron Roderick running the offense and Brian Johnson coaching the QBs (he was not a great QB as a player, and he hasn't received any coaching since he graduated: what wisdom can he really impart to Jordan Wynn)?
Last Line of Defense
Well, to say that Utah "stopped" Boise State would be an overstatement. Yes, Boise State only scored 26 points. But they amassed over 500 yards and controlled the clock in the middle part of the game. Boise State also dropped two wide open TDs, and both of those drives ended with field goals (6 points instead of 14). They did play well enough to give Utah a chance in the game. Boise State has a better offense than at least 9 of the 11 other Pac 12 schools. That gives Utah some hope going into next season: if the defense can hold it together until the offense figures out how to move the ball, they will have a chance in a weak Pac 12 South.
The biggest problem going into 2011, and the Pac 12, is the secondary: last year they could survive losing two great players in the secondary because they had two great back-ups/nickelbacks. This offseason they lose Lamar Chapman and Justin Taplin-Ross. They also lose arguably their best cover LB Chad Manis. And their best pass-rushing DL Christian Cox. If they cannot cover or get pressure, it won't matter how good that front 7 is against the run, especially in a mostly pass-happy Pac 12.
I certainly have a lot more faith in Kalane Sitake running the show on defense. Plus K-Whit is a defensive-minded guy and he will put a decent product on the defensive side. But I worry about a pass defense that figures to be worse than this year's version that got torched for over 300 yards tonight, 228 yards to a freshman QB with 1 good pass catching threat against BYU, and 528 yards and 4 TDs against SDSU. Those were the last 3 games of the season. The athletes and experience in the Pac 12 will blow BYU's out of the water, and the size and skill of the Pac 12 will blow SDSU's out of the water.
Boise State is a great team. They dominated the game, particularly when Utah had the ball. It is a shame they were not given a better bowl test after such a phenomenal run these past 3 seasons. But, then again, this was SUPPOSED to be a test...I will talk a little bit more about Boise State's future in a post-yet-to-come (after all of this season's games have been played), where I will look at all of the potential non-AQ 2011 BCS busters. For BYU fans, it is a good chance to size up the competition. For those who saw the game tonight: they were probably looking at BYU's biggest threat, though the Broncos do have to travel to Fort Worth next season to take on TCU...
Well, the result wasn't too surprising. Going into the game, even if they had a healthy Jordan Wynn, I just had a hard time seeing how Utah was going to put up points against this Boise State defense. Utah has gone away from their power-running game the past month, and to try to outspeed Boise State on the perimeter is impossible for almost all non-SEC teams.
The bad news for Utah fans: they lose their 3 best RBs (Eddie Wide III and Matt Asiata graduate and Sausin Shakerin had a career-ending injury), 2 of their 3 best WRs (Jereme Brooks and Shaky Smithson), their backup QB (Terrance Cain), 2 of their starting OL (Caleb Schlauderoff and Zane Taylor), their K (Joe Phillips), and their All-American PR/KR (Shaky Smithson). They will not see any defenses as good as the Broncos, but they only put up 17 at home against BYU and 3 on the road against Notre Dame: they will see better defenses than that. Where will the points come from next season? Can DeVonte Christopher carry the load without a Jereme Brooks, and without any real threat of a running game, to take some of the heat off of him?
Does anybody have confidence in Utah's offense being able to put up the 28 points/game they will need to win the Pac 12 South? With Dave Schramm and Aaron Roderick running the offense and Brian Johnson coaching the QBs (he was not a great QB as a player, and he hasn't received any coaching since he graduated: what wisdom can he really impart to Jordan Wynn)?
Last Line of Defense
Well, to say that Utah "stopped" Boise State would be an overstatement. Yes, Boise State only scored 26 points. But they amassed over 500 yards and controlled the clock in the middle part of the game. Boise State also dropped two wide open TDs, and both of those drives ended with field goals (6 points instead of 14). They did play well enough to give Utah a chance in the game. Boise State has a better offense than at least 9 of the 11 other Pac 12 schools. That gives Utah some hope going into next season: if the defense can hold it together until the offense figures out how to move the ball, they will have a chance in a weak Pac 12 South.
The biggest problem going into 2011, and the Pac 12, is the secondary: last year they could survive losing two great players in the secondary because they had two great back-ups/nickelbacks. This offseason they lose Lamar Chapman and Justin Taplin-Ross. They also lose arguably their best cover LB Chad Manis. And their best pass-rushing DL Christian Cox. If they cannot cover or get pressure, it won't matter how good that front 7 is against the run, especially in a mostly pass-happy Pac 12.
I certainly have a lot more faith in Kalane Sitake running the show on defense. Plus K-Whit is a defensive-minded guy and he will put a decent product on the defensive side. But I worry about a pass defense that figures to be worse than this year's version that got torched for over 300 yards tonight, 228 yards to a freshman QB with 1 good pass catching threat against BYU, and 528 yards and 4 TDs against SDSU. Those were the last 3 games of the season. The athletes and experience in the Pac 12 will blow BYU's out of the water, and the size and skill of the Pac 12 will blow SDSU's out of the water.
Boise State is a great team. They dominated the game, particularly when Utah had the ball. It is a shame they were not given a better bowl test after such a phenomenal run these past 3 seasons. But, then again, this was SUPPOSED to be a test...I will talk a little bit more about Boise State's future in a post-yet-to-come (after all of this season's games have been played), where I will look at all of the potential non-AQ 2011 BCS busters. For BYU fans, it is a good chance to size up the competition. For those who saw the game tonight: they were probably looking at BYU's biggest threat, though the Broncos do have to travel to Fort Worth next season to take on TCU...
Boise State-Utah 2010 Vegas Bowl Preview
As my friend Brian pointed out to me this week, this could be an annual matchup in the Vegas Bowl: the MWC Champion and the Pac 12 6th-place team. But I digress...
This game all comes down to motivation. Boise State is a physically superior team. They are a better-coached team. They have a better QB. They have a better offense (115 yards and 11 points more per game by Boise State). They have a more stifling defense (60 yards and 5 points fewer per game allowed by Boise State). And they did that with nearly identical strengths of schedule (Jeff Sagarin has Utah's SOS as 66 and Boise State as 70). Will Boise State be motivated? They were one missed field goal away from playing in the Rose Bowl. Instead they are playing before Christmas with a payday of $1M, instead of the $17M from the Grand Daddy of Them All.
While I do think Boise State is disappointed, they bring to the game the winningest senior class in college football. Those guys will want to go out on top. They are going against what is (and probably will forever be) the winningest senior class in Utah's football history. Both teams had higher aspirations though. Utah wanted to go out on top of the MWC, and had a chance at it until the 40-point beatdown they took at the hands of TCU. In the words of one of their captains before the season after being picked to finish second: we'll remind the MWC why the Pac 10 picked us.
For Boise State, they are facing the second best defense they will have played this season behind Virginia Tech. For Utah, they are also facing the second best defense they will have played behind TCU. Boise State has played two better offenses, Nevada and Fresno State. Utah is playing the best offense it will play this season.
31 points is the cutoff for this one. Boise State hasn't scored less than 31 points in a game this season. Utah only scored 31 or more in half of their games this season. Only one team scored more 31 or more on Boise State (Nevada). Utah gave up 31 or more twice.
Utah is playing backup QB Terrance Cain, who had a less than stellar game against BYU. He was 2-7 with 2 INTs and 8 yards. Boise State brings a little more to the table defensively than BYU did. While I do not believe he will struggle that badly for 4 quarters, I see a similar result: not many points scored while he is at the helm. He does bring a mobility aspect to the game that Jordan Wynn does not, though he lacks the downfield throwing ability that Wynn brought to the table. If Boise State does not have to worry about the downfield passing game, they can key in on the run and the short crossing routes. Boise State LB Will Venable should get a dozen tackles this game, including some memorable, vicious hits.
Coach Kyle Whittingham knows how to use extra preparation time. K-Whit is 12-2 in games where he has more than 9 days to prepare (3-2 in season openers, 5-0 after byes, and 4-0 in bowl games). But, typically, he is not going up against a team like the Broncos in those games. In fact, the Alabama team he played in the Sugar Bowl is the only similar-type of team that he faced in those situations.
If Boise State shows up, they dominate this game, plain and simple. I believe they do show up and Utah's bowl winning streak is halted at 9 straight bowl wins over the past 11 years. Boise State gives Utes everywhere a scare as they get set to head into the Pac 12 with their RBs, leading WRs, and a few offensive linemen graduating, by winning most of the battles on that side of the ball from kickoff to final whistle. It will be Boise State reminding Utah why there are critics of their inclusion into the Pac 12, not Utah reminding the nation why the Pac 12 chose them. Boise State 34, Utah 13.
This game all comes down to motivation. Boise State is a physically superior team. They are a better-coached team. They have a better QB. They have a better offense (115 yards and 11 points more per game by Boise State). They have a more stifling defense (60 yards and 5 points fewer per game allowed by Boise State). And they did that with nearly identical strengths of schedule (Jeff Sagarin has Utah's SOS as 66 and Boise State as 70). Will Boise State be motivated? They were one missed field goal away from playing in the Rose Bowl. Instead they are playing before Christmas with a payday of $1M, instead of the $17M from the Grand Daddy of Them All.
While I do think Boise State is disappointed, they bring to the game the winningest senior class in college football. Those guys will want to go out on top. They are going against what is (and probably will forever be) the winningest senior class in Utah's football history. Both teams had higher aspirations though. Utah wanted to go out on top of the MWC, and had a chance at it until the 40-point beatdown they took at the hands of TCU. In the words of one of their captains before the season after being picked to finish second: we'll remind the MWC why the Pac 10 picked us.
For Boise State, they are facing the second best defense they will have played this season behind Virginia Tech. For Utah, they are also facing the second best defense they will have played behind TCU. Boise State has played two better offenses, Nevada and Fresno State. Utah is playing the best offense it will play this season.
31 points is the cutoff for this one. Boise State hasn't scored less than 31 points in a game this season. Utah only scored 31 or more in half of their games this season. Only one team scored more 31 or more on Boise State (Nevada). Utah gave up 31 or more twice.
Utah is playing backup QB Terrance Cain, who had a less than stellar game against BYU. He was 2-7 with 2 INTs and 8 yards. Boise State brings a little more to the table defensively than BYU did. While I do not believe he will struggle that badly for 4 quarters, I see a similar result: not many points scored while he is at the helm. He does bring a mobility aspect to the game that Jordan Wynn does not, though he lacks the downfield throwing ability that Wynn brought to the table. If Boise State does not have to worry about the downfield passing game, they can key in on the run and the short crossing routes. Boise State LB Will Venable should get a dozen tackles this game, including some memorable, vicious hits.
Coach Kyle Whittingham knows how to use extra preparation time. K-Whit is 12-2 in games where he has more than 9 days to prepare (3-2 in season openers, 5-0 after byes, and 4-0 in bowl games). But, typically, he is not going up against a team like the Broncos in those games. In fact, the Alabama team he played in the Sugar Bowl is the only similar-type of team that he faced in those situations.
If Boise State shows up, they dominate this game, plain and simple. I believe they do show up and Utah's bowl winning streak is halted at 9 straight bowl wins over the past 11 years. Boise State gives Utes everywhere a scare as they get set to head into the Pac 12 with their RBs, leading WRs, and a few offensive linemen graduating, by winning most of the battles on that side of the ball from kickoff to final whistle. It will be Boise State reminding Utah why there are critics of their inclusion into the Pac 12, not Utah reminding the nation why the Pac 12 chose them. Boise State 34, Utah 13.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
BYU Hoops Update, 12/21/2010
So BYU hoops finally dropped a game, losing by 7 points in the Wooden Classic to the team that Wooden coached. UCLA is probably a better team than their record indicates. They certainly played like a dominant team for stretches of the game.
So what's next for BYU? Well, first off, a string of wins, theoretically. They play at Weber State tonight, which is a tough place to win. However, without Damian Lillard, it is a much more difficult task for the Wildcats to hang with the Cougars. The man put his team on his back last season and almost single-handedly willed them into the NCAA Tournament, falling just short in the Big Sky Championship Game to Montana and Anthony Johnson's 42 points. That was honestly the best non-NCAA tournament game I watched last season.
Next up, they get rebuilding UTEP at home on Thursday. It is only UTEP's second true road game of the season, after winning by 2 against 5-7 New Mexico State. They will find the going a little bit tougher at the Marriott Center.
The Cougars then get a week off before a game at Buffalo. The Bulls present a more formidable challenge than UTEP or Weber State will, but they are not as good as some of the teams that BYU has dismantled, though it is a true road game: BYU has only played one of those so far this season. BYU will have to figure out how to keep it rolling after a week off: their only other week break this season was prior to UCLA
Then BYU plays Division II Fresno Pacific.
They will have a chance to get healthy, because they shouldn't be required to log a lot of minutes these next two weeks (though Collinsworth could definitely benefit from some time on the floor, after missing nearly a month). BYU will need Collinsworth and Hartsock once conference play begins. Both played limited minutes against UCLA. It was Collinsworth's first game back from injury. He was a little out of sync on offense, but managed a team-high 7 rebounds in just 20 minutes. Hartsock was less effective. The UCLA interior players put up 60 on BYU on Saturday. A healthy Hartsock and Collinsworth will be needed to keep some of the MWC post players from doing similar damage (i.e. San Diego State's trio of forwards Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, and Malcolm Thomas).
I think the loss will refocus the Cougars. After beating up on Arizona last weekend, they probably had a mindset that UCLA would be less formidable. UCLA had an inside presence, and BYU failed down there, as they have shown glimpses of doing all season. I look for BYU to take a 13-1 record (the Division II game does not count towards BYU's record) to Vegas on January 5th. I had BYU at 12-2, so they have exceeded my already lofty expectations. This is BYU's best chance to take down UNLV at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV does not have an inside scorer they can count on as they have in years past, so they will have to rely on penetration and 3-point shooting. Then again, if BYU's interior D is as porous as it was against UCLA, Bryce Massamba might look like an All-American against BYU...
One other interesting note: the MWC is not considered a Mid-Major, but the WCC is. So BYU will become a Mid-Major school overnight. I do wonder, however if that dynamic will change with the departures of BYU and Utah from the MWC and the addition of BYU to the WCC. Both leagues will look very similar once the transition takes place: 2 NCAA Tournament teams, 1 NIT team, and a bunch of rummies. I think the addition of Boise State combined with those two losses probably pushes the MWC back down to the level of Mid-Major. Is the presence of BYU enough to lift the WCC from the list of Mid-Majors and replace the MWC? Probably not. But it is an interesting debate...
So what's next for BYU? Well, first off, a string of wins, theoretically. They play at Weber State tonight, which is a tough place to win. However, without Damian Lillard, it is a much more difficult task for the Wildcats to hang with the Cougars. The man put his team on his back last season and almost single-handedly willed them into the NCAA Tournament, falling just short in the Big Sky Championship Game to Montana and Anthony Johnson's 42 points. That was honestly the best non-NCAA tournament game I watched last season.
Next up, they get rebuilding UTEP at home on Thursday. It is only UTEP's second true road game of the season, after winning by 2 against 5-7 New Mexico State. They will find the going a little bit tougher at the Marriott Center.
The Cougars then get a week off before a game at Buffalo. The Bulls present a more formidable challenge than UTEP or Weber State will, but they are not as good as some of the teams that BYU has dismantled, though it is a true road game: BYU has only played one of those so far this season. BYU will have to figure out how to keep it rolling after a week off: their only other week break this season was prior to UCLA
Then BYU plays Division II Fresno Pacific.
They will have a chance to get healthy, because they shouldn't be required to log a lot of minutes these next two weeks (though Collinsworth could definitely benefit from some time on the floor, after missing nearly a month). BYU will need Collinsworth and Hartsock once conference play begins. Both played limited minutes against UCLA. It was Collinsworth's first game back from injury. He was a little out of sync on offense, but managed a team-high 7 rebounds in just 20 minutes. Hartsock was less effective. The UCLA interior players put up 60 on BYU on Saturday. A healthy Hartsock and Collinsworth will be needed to keep some of the MWC post players from doing similar damage (i.e. San Diego State's trio of forwards Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, and Malcolm Thomas).
I think the loss will refocus the Cougars. After beating up on Arizona last weekend, they probably had a mindset that UCLA would be less formidable. UCLA had an inside presence, and BYU failed down there, as they have shown glimpses of doing all season. I look for BYU to take a 13-1 record (the Division II game does not count towards BYU's record) to Vegas on January 5th. I had BYU at 12-2, so they have exceeded my already lofty expectations. This is BYU's best chance to take down UNLV at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV does not have an inside scorer they can count on as they have in years past, so they will have to rely on penetration and 3-point shooting. Then again, if BYU's interior D is as porous as it was against UCLA, Bryce Massamba might look like an All-American against BYU...
One other interesting note: the MWC is not considered a Mid-Major, but the WCC is. So BYU will become a Mid-Major school overnight. I do wonder, however if that dynamic will change with the departures of BYU and Utah from the MWC and the addition of BYU to the WCC. Both leagues will look very similar once the transition takes place: 2 NCAA Tournament teams, 1 NIT team, and a bunch of rummies. I think the addition of Boise State combined with those two losses probably pushes the MWC back down to the level of Mid-Major. Is the presence of BYU enough to lift the WCC from the list of Mid-Majors and replace the MWC? Probably not. But it is an interesting debate...
BYU Offensive Coaching Staff
I am not one to hope for someone's firing by any means, but I have had a lot of questions about Robert Anae these past few years. I think that comes with the territory though. It is a lot easier to sit and watch your TV, completely away from the game, with the full 40 second play clock to think about what might work. Anae is in the middle of it, on the field, with about 10-15 seconds to come up with the best play given a situation that he didn't know would happen until right then. It must be a difficult job.
But, on the other hand, a lot of people are much more successful at it than Anae has been. My biggest complaint about Anae has been his gameplans and play-calling against some of the better teams BYU has faced. To have an NFL QB, RB, TE, and WR, along with at least 1 NFL OL and only put up 7 points against TCU is understandable/excusable. But take out the WR (Austin Collie) and to do it two years in a row, at home, is coaching. Anae has never been good at attacking good defenses. The personnel hasn't been the problem...
So how will this all play out? So Bronco has told his staff that all coaches are "fired" and everyone can reapply for the position that they want. I agree with a lot of the speculation: Anae may not have a place in Provo next season. It is unfortunate, perhaps undeserved, but Bronco does not want his offense to hold the team back next year, especially because I believe we will see a dominant BYU Defense like there hasn't been since Bronco's DC days and several NFL players. Brandon Doman appears to be the guy, not just the new OC, but perhaps who Bronco sees as the next BYU head coach? Bronco will not stick around for 30 years like Edwards. If he truly sees in Doman what he has been praising him for the past few weeks, then he might be "grooming him" as his replacement 3-5 years down the road. Give him a year or two to find another defensive mind to bring in that he trusts (Brady Poppinga or Aaron Francisco may be nearing the end of their NFL careers), and we may see the beginning of the end of the Bronco Mendenhall Era at BYU. 5 years down the road: Doman as Head Coach, Detmer as Offensive Coordinator, with a former Bronco Mendenhall player, who played at least 3-5 years in the NFL, as the Defensive Coordinator?
As for the immediate future: I think the Wide Receiver Coach Patrick Higgins is in trouble and I think Anae is in trouble. Reynolds, Weber, and Doman are "safe" in my opinion. I do not know who else they bring in, but Bronco seems to enjoy bringing LaVell players back into the fold. Chad Lewis? Matt Bellini? Kaipo Maguire? Austin Collie may be all-but-done in the NFL after suffering his second concussion in two months. I am just throwing names out there, I have no idea what Bronco has in mind. If I know Bronco though, he will surprise us all by doing something we never considered, like perhaps leaving the staff entirely the same...
But, on the other hand, a lot of people are much more successful at it than Anae has been. My biggest complaint about Anae has been his gameplans and play-calling against some of the better teams BYU has faced. To have an NFL QB, RB, TE, and WR, along with at least 1 NFL OL and only put up 7 points against TCU is understandable/excusable. But take out the WR (Austin Collie) and to do it two years in a row, at home, is coaching. Anae has never been good at attacking good defenses. The personnel hasn't been the problem...
So how will this all play out? So Bronco has told his staff that all coaches are "fired" and everyone can reapply for the position that they want. I agree with a lot of the speculation: Anae may not have a place in Provo next season. It is unfortunate, perhaps undeserved, but Bronco does not want his offense to hold the team back next year, especially because I believe we will see a dominant BYU Defense like there hasn't been since Bronco's DC days and several NFL players. Brandon Doman appears to be the guy, not just the new OC, but perhaps who Bronco sees as the next BYU head coach? Bronco will not stick around for 30 years like Edwards. If he truly sees in Doman what he has been praising him for the past few weeks, then he might be "grooming him" as his replacement 3-5 years down the road. Give him a year or two to find another defensive mind to bring in that he trusts (Brady Poppinga or Aaron Francisco may be nearing the end of their NFL careers), and we may see the beginning of the end of the Bronco Mendenhall Era at BYU. 5 years down the road: Doman as Head Coach, Detmer as Offensive Coordinator, with a former Bronco Mendenhall player, who played at least 3-5 years in the NFL, as the Defensive Coordinator?
As for the immediate future: I think the Wide Receiver Coach Patrick Higgins is in trouble and I think Anae is in trouble. Reynolds, Weber, and Doman are "safe" in my opinion. I do not know who else they bring in, but Bronco seems to enjoy bringing LaVell players back into the fold. Chad Lewis? Matt Bellini? Kaipo Maguire? Austin Collie may be all-but-done in the NFL after suffering his second concussion in two months. I am just throwing names out there, I have no idea what Bronco has in mind. If I know Bronco though, he will surprise us all by doing something we never considered, like perhaps leaving the staff entirely the same...
Monday, December 20, 2010
BYU-UTEP Bowl Recap
Sorry, I'm a little late on this one. Tithing settlement, Sunday nap, and Christmas parties interfered with a more timely recap...
BYU fans should be very encouraged for next season. Watching this game was like watching the BYU of old. They were scoring a lot of points with a lot of different people involved in the offense, playing mostly sound defense, and giving up several big plays. Most of the plays BYU had were made by underclassmen, which is the most encouraging part.
BYU scored on its first 5 possessions. They moved the ball on short fields and long fields. They did it through the air and on the ground. They controlled the line of scrimmage. They established the running game. They worked the play-action passing game. They even played a lot of the more traditional BYU passing offense as well. They completely dominated the time of possession, amassing 17 more minutes of possession than UTEP. It helped that their opponent was inferior at every position.
The Offense: A
Jake Heaps was on target, completing 74% of his passes, with 4 TDs and over 250 yards, in barely over 3 quarters of work. The most important stat to the BYU offense: Heaps hit 10 different guys at least once. James Lark added an 11th receiver to get involved.
Cody Hoffman emerged as a big play, big-time receiver, with 8 catches, 137 yards, and 3 TDs (or 2.5, depending on which replay you saw). Jacobson got back to catching more balls. Devin Mahina and Richard Wilson both had a couple of catches and gave hope for the Tight End position next season. Remember that Ross Apo didn't even play this season, and he was supposed to be the best of the bunch.
Joshua Quezada added 101 rushing yards and a TD. DiLuigi and Kariya each added TD runs as well. That is going to be a very good trio next season. Quezada has come a long way as a blocker since the beginning of the season. Kariya is money when it comes to picking up the blitz. All three of them are capable of moving piles, though Quezada is fun to watch when someone tries to make a solo tackle on him. He looks like Unga, without the great vision, but with better speed. They also have a few other backs that will be pushing for playing time: David Foote is tough to bring down and Drew Phillips is supposed to be the fastest BYU player since Reno Mahe roamed the field. Mike Hague has filled in nicely as a fullback, with great pass-catching skills. He's no Manase Tonga, but he had a good blocking game in the bowl game and caught a pass that yielded a first down.
The Defense: B+
Andrew Rich and Vic So'oto meant a lot to this BYU defense. They made a lot of plays, they caused a lot of chaos, and they displayed a lot of leadership, especially when the chips were down this season. Rich had a sack and two picks. So'oto had a sack and several "disruptions" on other plays.
The defensive line controlled the game and never let UTEP do anything on offense. UTEP had 153 yards on 3 big passing plays that were on Uale, Bradley, and Logan. UTEP's other 52 plays netted 80 yards. That is a line of scrimmage dominated. To hold any team to -12 rushing yards on 22 attempts (with only 4 of those attempts as sacks) means that the front 3 ruled the game.
With the exception of Rich, most of the plays were made by guys that will be on the team next season. Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, Eathyn Manumaleuna, and Corby Eason all made some plays consistently the last 3 or 4 games, and did so again in the bowl game. The future is bright on defense.
Special Teams: A-
Mitch Payne will be gone next season. While he was very reliable inside of 40 yards, he was inconsistent outside of 40 yards and I have never seen another kicker have as many extra points blocked as he did. He was perfect in the bowl game, so I will give him props for making 7 extra points and a 38-yard field goal. I will be excited to see the return of Justin Sorensen and his big leg.
Holder Matt Marshall and Longsnapper Reed Hornung both had flawless games (and flawless seasons) as well. They both return next season.
Riley Stephenson is just a sophomore and had a good bowl game. He had 3 punts, with 2 returned for a total of 2 yards, one inside the 20. His other punt went 60 yards into the end zone for a 40-yard net.
BYU did give up a big kickoff return and changed their entire kickoff plan following that.
In a later post, I'll talk a little bit more about what BYU brings back, what BYU loses, and what BYU will try to use to replace the losses. But to just a brief summary: BYU doesn't lose much, and what they replace it with should be just fine. Rich and So'oto are the toughest guys to replace. BYU has a two-year understudy for Rich in Jray Galea'i who was a redshirt freshman this season (not that I'm giving him the job, but he was number two on the depth chart) and they added Snow College Safety Preston Hadley. BYU played about 8 guys on the Defensive Line, with 7 of them coming back. So'oto was good, but there is a lot of experience behind him.
They lose Shane Hunter at Linebacker, but that shouldn't be a problem with the other 9 quality Linebackers in the program. The CBs are both gone, but Eason showed he had some skills this season, and Lee Aguirre is still in school and could be eligible to play next season, according to a buddy of mine whom I trust implicitly...they also added a JC Corner from San Mateo, the cousin of Brian Logan. The taller cousin of Brian Logan.
If BYU can get off to a good start in 2011, there are great things in store for BYU football next season.
BYU fans should be very encouraged for next season. Watching this game was like watching the BYU of old. They were scoring a lot of points with a lot of different people involved in the offense, playing mostly sound defense, and giving up several big plays. Most of the plays BYU had were made by underclassmen, which is the most encouraging part.
BYU scored on its first 5 possessions. They moved the ball on short fields and long fields. They did it through the air and on the ground. They controlled the line of scrimmage. They established the running game. They worked the play-action passing game. They even played a lot of the more traditional BYU passing offense as well. They completely dominated the time of possession, amassing 17 more minutes of possession than UTEP. It helped that their opponent was inferior at every position.
The Offense: A
Jake Heaps was on target, completing 74% of his passes, with 4 TDs and over 250 yards, in barely over 3 quarters of work. The most important stat to the BYU offense: Heaps hit 10 different guys at least once. James Lark added an 11th receiver to get involved.
Cody Hoffman emerged as a big play, big-time receiver, with 8 catches, 137 yards, and 3 TDs (or 2.5, depending on which replay you saw). Jacobson got back to catching more balls. Devin Mahina and Richard Wilson both had a couple of catches and gave hope for the Tight End position next season. Remember that Ross Apo didn't even play this season, and he was supposed to be the best of the bunch.
Joshua Quezada added 101 rushing yards and a TD. DiLuigi and Kariya each added TD runs as well. That is going to be a very good trio next season. Quezada has come a long way as a blocker since the beginning of the season. Kariya is money when it comes to picking up the blitz. All three of them are capable of moving piles, though Quezada is fun to watch when someone tries to make a solo tackle on him. He looks like Unga, without the great vision, but with better speed. They also have a few other backs that will be pushing for playing time: David Foote is tough to bring down and Drew Phillips is supposed to be the fastest BYU player since Reno Mahe roamed the field. Mike Hague has filled in nicely as a fullback, with great pass-catching skills. He's no Manase Tonga, but he had a good blocking game in the bowl game and caught a pass that yielded a first down.
The Defense: B+
Andrew Rich and Vic So'oto meant a lot to this BYU defense. They made a lot of plays, they caused a lot of chaos, and they displayed a lot of leadership, especially when the chips were down this season. Rich had a sack and two picks. So'oto had a sack and several "disruptions" on other plays.
The defensive line controlled the game and never let UTEP do anything on offense. UTEP had 153 yards on 3 big passing plays that were on Uale, Bradley, and Logan. UTEP's other 52 plays netted 80 yards. That is a line of scrimmage dominated. To hold any team to -12 rushing yards on 22 attempts (with only 4 of those attempts as sacks) means that the front 3 ruled the game.
With the exception of Rich, most of the plays were made by guys that will be on the team next season. Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, Eathyn Manumaleuna, and Corby Eason all made some plays consistently the last 3 or 4 games, and did so again in the bowl game. The future is bright on defense.
Special Teams: A-
Mitch Payne will be gone next season. While he was very reliable inside of 40 yards, he was inconsistent outside of 40 yards and I have never seen another kicker have as many extra points blocked as he did. He was perfect in the bowl game, so I will give him props for making 7 extra points and a 38-yard field goal. I will be excited to see the return of Justin Sorensen and his big leg.
Holder Matt Marshall and Longsnapper Reed Hornung both had flawless games (and flawless seasons) as well. They both return next season.
Riley Stephenson is just a sophomore and had a good bowl game. He had 3 punts, with 2 returned for a total of 2 yards, one inside the 20. His other punt went 60 yards into the end zone for a 40-yard net.
BYU did give up a big kickoff return and changed their entire kickoff plan following that.
In a later post, I'll talk a little bit more about what BYU brings back, what BYU loses, and what BYU will try to use to replace the losses. But to just a brief summary: BYU doesn't lose much, and what they replace it with should be just fine. Rich and So'oto are the toughest guys to replace. BYU has a two-year understudy for Rich in Jray Galea'i who was a redshirt freshman this season (not that I'm giving him the job, but he was number two on the depth chart) and they added Snow College Safety Preston Hadley. BYU played about 8 guys on the Defensive Line, with 7 of them coming back. So'oto was good, but there is a lot of experience behind him.
They lose Shane Hunter at Linebacker, but that shouldn't be a problem with the other 9 quality Linebackers in the program. The CBs are both gone, but Eason showed he had some skills this season, and Lee Aguirre is still in school and could be eligible to play next season, according to a buddy of mine whom I trust implicitly...they also added a JC Corner from San Mateo, the cousin of Brian Logan. The taller cousin of Brian Logan.
If BYU can get off to a good start in 2011, there are great things in store for BYU football next season.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
BYU-UTEP 2010 New Mexico Bowl Prediction
BYU's O vs. UTEP's D
The Cougar offense had its struggles during the season. Really, the only successful offensive outputs that they had were against crummy defenses. The UTEP Miners qualify in that regard. They rank in the bottom half of FBS in pretty much every statistical category. They have given up 300+ rushing yards to opponents on multiple occasions. They have also given up 300+ passing yards on multiple occasions. They gave up over 50 points twice. If UTEP takes away the run, they give up the pass. If they take away the pass, they give up the run. The formula isn't too difficult for beating them: try out a few runs, then try out a few passes, whichever one works, stick with it.
I anticipate that BYU will probably stick to its running attack, and be successful. They have a huge size advantage. BYU OL has a 20-60 pound advantage against the UTEP DL. BYU's Fullbacks are bigger than UTEP's Linebackers. Two of BYU's three RBs are bigger than the Safeties. BYU did struggle running against 4-man fronts, however. Granted, the 4-man lines they struggled to run against this season were mostly ranked opponents, but still, it is something to consider.
I do wonder a little bit about the passing game. I think this will be a game where BYU will need its TEs to get involved. Shane's boy, Devin Mahina, could have a big game. I think BYU will need him. I think Anae will want to establish them, as a build-up into next season, if nothing else. BYU will probably not need to throw much and I would be surprised to see Heaps get more than 25-30 attempts, unless the game dictates a strong need to pass the ball.
BYU's D vs. UTEP's O
UTEP has a dynamic offense, that really revolves around their 3 best players: QB Trevor Vittatoe, RB Joseph Banyard, and WR Kris Adams. They have a decent-size offensive line, adequate TEs, a very solid group of other RBs, and a whole lot of seniors playing in their first and only bowl game. They play a lot of players and give the ball to as many players as possible. I don't recall a game where there were not at least 12 players running, catching, or throwing the ball.
They do not do anything particularly well, however. They can run the ball OK: 150 yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry. Their passing game is wildly inconsistent, not completing many passes, rarely for many yards, with a pick nearly every game. BYU's defense, much like its offense, feasted upon bad opponents and struggled mightily against good ones. This is a bad offensive opponent. The Miners rank in the bottom half of FBS in most offensive categories as well. And they had those struggles with an easy schedule.
I would anticipate UTEP's greatest successes will be throwing against BYU. However, they are not well-polished in the passing game to expect great things from them. They will have difficulty continuously running the ball and marching down the field against BYU. They may pop a big play or two in the running game, but I don't believe they can sustain drives ramming the ball at the Cougar front 7.
Prediction
As I stated in an earlier post, bowl games are tricky animals to predict. UTEP has all of the motivation, coaching stability, and excitement that successful bowl underdogs typically have. However, BYU is not your typical heavy favorite. They are excited to be playing in this (or any) bowl game, they are hungry, and young, enough to want to prove themselves, and the bowl game is early enough that they may still have some semblance of offensive rhythm.
I just think UTEP is going to be overmatched in this game. I do not see enough matchups that go in their favor where they could exploit an advantage to win this game. Their best chance is a lot of trickeration and going for big plays. They will have the crowd, they will just need to get the momentum and hold onto it for long enough to win the game. I think their bid to upset BYU falls short, though, perhaps by as early as the second quarter. BYU 38, UTEP 17.
7-6 should be considered a successful season, given what the team went through. I hope going into the offseason that the coaching staff is smart enough to find ways to work Riley Nelson in situationally, building a few special packages for him, rather than trying to split time with him and Heaps. I also hope that they pick two or three TEs and stick with them as the main guys, rather than trying to rotate in 5 or 6 guys. I further hope that they don't perpetuate those problems in the Linebackers next season. 10 LBs saw significant minutes this season and only 2 of them are graduating. Add Uona Kaveinga, the transfer from USC, Iona Pritchard, coming off of a mission, and 3 incoming freshmen (though those guys will have a tough time seeing the field, and some may go on missions before actually joining the team: I do not know their intentions), to the mix as well. Anyway, those are issues, along with many others, that I will discuss in plenty of detail in the offseason. Until then, enjoy a big Cougar victory on Saturday!
The Cougar offense had its struggles during the season. Really, the only successful offensive outputs that they had were against crummy defenses. The UTEP Miners qualify in that regard. They rank in the bottom half of FBS in pretty much every statistical category. They have given up 300+ rushing yards to opponents on multiple occasions. They have also given up 300+ passing yards on multiple occasions. They gave up over 50 points twice. If UTEP takes away the run, they give up the pass. If they take away the pass, they give up the run. The formula isn't too difficult for beating them: try out a few runs, then try out a few passes, whichever one works, stick with it.
I anticipate that BYU will probably stick to its running attack, and be successful. They have a huge size advantage. BYU OL has a 20-60 pound advantage against the UTEP DL. BYU's Fullbacks are bigger than UTEP's Linebackers. Two of BYU's three RBs are bigger than the Safeties. BYU did struggle running against 4-man fronts, however. Granted, the 4-man lines they struggled to run against this season were mostly ranked opponents, but still, it is something to consider.
I do wonder a little bit about the passing game. I think this will be a game where BYU will need its TEs to get involved. Shane's boy, Devin Mahina, could have a big game. I think BYU will need him. I think Anae will want to establish them, as a build-up into next season, if nothing else. BYU will probably not need to throw much and I would be surprised to see Heaps get more than 25-30 attempts, unless the game dictates a strong need to pass the ball.
BYU's D vs. UTEP's O
UTEP has a dynamic offense, that really revolves around their 3 best players: QB Trevor Vittatoe, RB Joseph Banyard, and WR Kris Adams. They have a decent-size offensive line, adequate TEs, a very solid group of other RBs, and a whole lot of seniors playing in their first and only bowl game. They play a lot of players and give the ball to as many players as possible. I don't recall a game where there were not at least 12 players running, catching, or throwing the ball.
They do not do anything particularly well, however. They can run the ball OK: 150 yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry. Their passing game is wildly inconsistent, not completing many passes, rarely for many yards, with a pick nearly every game. BYU's defense, much like its offense, feasted upon bad opponents and struggled mightily against good ones. This is a bad offensive opponent. The Miners rank in the bottom half of FBS in most offensive categories as well. And they had those struggles with an easy schedule.
I would anticipate UTEP's greatest successes will be throwing against BYU. However, they are not well-polished in the passing game to expect great things from them. They will have difficulty continuously running the ball and marching down the field against BYU. They may pop a big play or two in the running game, but I don't believe they can sustain drives ramming the ball at the Cougar front 7.
Prediction
As I stated in an earlier post, bowl games are tricky animals to predict. UTEP has all of the motivation, coaching stability, and excitement that successful bowl underdogs typically have. However, BYU is not your typical heavy favorite. They are excited to be playing in this (or any) bowl game, they are hungry, and young, enough to want to prove themselves, and the bowl game is early enough that they may still have some semblance of offensive rhythm.
I just think UTEP is going to be overmatched in this game. I do not see enough matchups that go in their favor where they could exploit an advantage to win this game. Their best chance is a lot of trickeration and going for big plays. They will have the crowd, they will just need to get the momentum and hold onto it for long enough to win the game. I think their bid to upset BYU falls short, though, perhaps by as early as the second quarter. BYU 38, UTEP 17.
7-6 should be considered a successful season, given what the team went through. I hope going into the offseason that the coaching staff is smart enough to find ways to work Riley Nelson in situationally, building a few special packages for him, rather than trying to split time with him and Heaps. I also hope that they pick two or three TEs and stick with them as the main guys, rather than trying to rotate in 5 or 6 guys. I further hope that they don't perpetuate those problems in the Linebackers next season. 10 LBs saw significant minutes this season and only 2 of them are graduating. Add Uona Kaveinga, the transfer from USC, Iona Pritchard, coming off of a mission, and 3 incoming freshmen (though those guys will have a tough time seeing the field, and some may go on missions before actually joining the team: I do not know their intentions), to the mix as well. Anyway, those are issues, along with many others, that I will discuss in plenty of detail in the offseason. Until then, enjoy a big Cougar victory on Saturday!
Underdogs and the Bowls
The Favorites
I read an article a few years back that said that something like 55% of underdogs win bowl games. That is not 55% beat the spread, this is 55% of underdogs straight up win their bowl games. Again, I do not recall the exact figure but it was over 50%, or exactly where I read it, but I know that I read it from a reputable source of some kind. My postulation on that topic would be a couple of factors lead to underdogs performing so well: better teams rely more on rhythm, motivation is a huge factor in bowl games, and egos always play a role with 18-24 year old boys.
Lack of Rhythm, or Derhythmification as Mo Calls It
Most bowl games occur 3-4 weeks after a team's final game. Any momentum, clicking, or chemistry are long gone. Finals and holidays also can serve as a de-rhythm-ifier (pretty sure I just made that word up...) in that time period. Teams that have better rhythm tend to have better results during the season. However, playing in a bowl game is almost like playing in the first game of the season again: you are not on the same page. Plus, you never know who is going to step up and make plays. With so much time to prepare, opposing defenses can create a scheme to help take out one of their opponents best players.
Motivation
A lot of times, in bowls, one team may feel slighted as to where they ended up. Because of bowl tie-ins, a conference that had a good year can get in a lot of mismatches, particularly if the conferences they match up with in bowls had bad seasons. Teams may also get looked over for other "better" bowl matchups and then "slide" to a less-than-desirable bowl game. If a team is too disappointed with its destination, they may not leave it all on the field. Boise State was one missed field goal from the Rose Bowl. Try thinking about that for 3 weeks as you wait for your Vegas Bowl appearance...
Ego Issues
Players from the favored team may feel going into a game, that the opponent is not worthy of them, that their conference, or their record, indicate that they are an inferior team. They have weeks and weeks to have this ego boost fester in their system before the game. Conversely, going into a normal game, players may hear a week before, or at most two weeks before, how big of an underdog they are in their upcoming game. They don't have much time to really think about it, or prepare for it. For bowls, however, a lot of players are finished with the semester and have plenty of time on their hands to hear from others about their "David status" and about their Goliath of an opponent. Not to mention that the time period itself is 3-5 weeks. That would motivate me to get ready to hit someone in the mouth come bowl week. If nothing else, it would damage my ego to hear about how much I suck and I would want to prove everyone wrong!
If you are doing a Bowl Pick'Em: don't just slide down the favorite column. You may find yourself at the bottom of the standings! There are obviously a lot of other factors that could go into it: coaching changes, location, fan willingness to travel, etc. This was just an example of three things to consider when making your selections. Enjoy the bowl season!
I read an article a few years back that said that something like 55% of underdogs win bowl games. That is not 55% beat the spread, this is 55% of underdogs straight up win their bowl games. Again, I do not recall the exact figure but it was over 50%, or exactly where I read it, but I know that I read it from a reputable source of some kind. My postulation on that topic would be a couple of factors lead to underdogs performing so well: better teams rely more on rhythm, motivation is a huge factor in bowl games, and egos always play a role with 18-24 year old boys.
Lack of Rhythm, or Derhythmification as Mo Calls It
Most bowl games occur 3-4 weeks after a team's final game. Any momentum, clicking, or chemistry are long gone. Finals and holidays also can serve as a de-rhythm-ifier (pretty sure I just made that word up...) in that time period. Teams that have better rhythm tend to have better results during the season. However, playing in a bowl game is almost like playing in the first game of the season again: you are not on the same page. Plus, you never know who is going to step up and make plays. With so much time to prepare, opposing defenses can create a scheme to help take out one of their opponents best players.
Motivation
A lot of times, in bowls, one team may feel slighted as to where they ended up. Because of bowl tie-ins, a conference that had a good year can get in a lot of mismatches, particularly if the conferences they match up with in bowls had bad seasons. Teams may also get looked over for other "better" bowl matchups and then "slide" to a less-than-desirable bowl game. If a team is too disappointed with its destination, they may not leave it all on the field. Boise State was one missed field goal from the Rose Bowl. Try thinking about that for 3 weeks as you wait for your Vegas Bowl appearance...
Ego Issues
Players from the favored team may feel going into a game, that the opponent is not worthy of them, that their conference, or their record, indicate that they are an inferior team. They have weeks and weeks to have this ego boost fester in their system before the game. Conversely, going into a normal game, players may hear a week before, or at most two weeks before, how big of an underdog they are in their upcoming game. They don't have much time to really think about it, or prepare for it. For bowls, however, a lot of players are finished with the semester and have plenty of time on their hands to hear from others about their "David status" and about their Goliath of an opponent. Not to mention that the time period itself is 3-5 weeks. That would motivate me to get ready to hit someone in the mouth come bowl week. If nothing else, it would damage my ego to hear about how much I suck and I would want to prove everyone wrong!
If you are doing a Bowl Pick'Em: don't just slide down the favorite column. You may find yourself at the bottom of the standings! There are obviously a lot of other factors that could go into it: coaching changes, location, fan willingness to travel, etc. This was just an example of three things to consider when making your selections. Enjoy the bowl season!
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Mo's Third Look at BYU's 2010 New Mexico Bowl Opponent
Mo's Impression
Just looking at the numbers a few things stand out to me. 1) They have a couple of very gifted, very athletic players on their roster. 2) They don't have many of those players. 3) They do not perform very well in the "effort" categories. 4) Given their inconsistencies from game to game, they probably have pretty poor offensive and defensive line play.
What Those Impressions Mean
1) They have big-play potential. Giving up a big kickoff or punt return can swing momentum, as can an 80-yard offensive play or a big turnover. In a game against BYU, a team with 1 or 2 game-changers is probably going to be stopped. But a team that has 4 or 5 of those guys on both sides of the ball could make a lot of those big plays. But UTEP only has 1 or 2. And those 1 and 2 guys can be nullified, especially knowing that UTEP often suffers from a lack of effort, a lack of depth, and a lack of solid line play.
2) There is no depth. They cannot withstand an injury or two. A lot of the starters are also sub-par performers as it is. BYU's lineup is better in every head-to-head matchup, with the potential exception of the secondary against WR Kris Adams. That is the one matchup I think they will have to exploit, i.e. over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.
3) Punt coverage and kickoff coverage, as well as turnovers, are often deemed the effort categories. Although they can also be a referendum on the depth of a team. If you aren't succeeding there, which UTEP has not at all this season, it is a bad sign for field position and morale of the team. BYU has typically struggled in the return games, but they have also been using a brash, arrogant O'Neill Chambers for the past few years. If UTEP has issues covering against BYU, they will get killed in the field position battle and may not be able to recover.
4) Without solid offensive and defensive lines, it is easy to lose to BYU. BYU has big, strong, experienced, well-coached offensive linemen. BYU has solid, aggressive, expereienced, and physical defensive linemen. If UTEP cannot get good line play, it won't matter what else they do. If BYU's OL and FB can block 6 (or even 7) of UTEP's front 7, look for BYU's rushing attack to flourish, i.e. 200 yards or more. If they can protect Heaps, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gives up 223 yards/game. If BYU's front 3 can tie up 4 or 5 UTEP OL, it opens up the LBs and Safeties to be able to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.
In summary, these are the reasons that BYU is such a heavy favorite.
Just looking at the numbers a few things stand out to me. 1) They have a couple of very gifted, very athletic players on their roster. 2) They don't have many of those players. 3) They do not perform very well in the "effort" categories. 4) Given their inconsistencies from game to game, they probably have pretty poor offensive and defensive line play.
What Those Impressions Mean
1) They have big-play potential. Giving up a big kickoff or punt return can swing momentum, as can an 80-yard offensive play or a big turnover. In a game against BYU, a team with 1 or 2 game-changers is probably going to be stopped. But a team that has 4 or 5 of those guys on both sides of the ball could make a lot of those big plays. But UTEP only has 1 or 2. And those 1 and 2 guys can be nullified, especially knowing that UTEP often suffers from a lack of effort, a lack of depth, and a lack of solid line play.
2) There is no depth. They cannot withstand an injury or two. A lot of the starters are also sub-par performers as it is. BYU's lineup is better in every head-to-head matchup, with the potential exception of the secondary against WR Kris Adams. That is the one matchup I think they will have to exploit, i.e. over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.
3) Punt coverage and kickoff coverage, as well as turnovers, are often deemed the effort categories. Although they can also be a referendum on the depth of a team. If you aren't succeeding there, which UTEP has not at all this season, it is a bad sign for field position and morale of the team. BYU has typically struggled in the return games, but they have also been using a brash, arrogant O'Neill Chambers for the past few years. If UTEP has issues covering against BYU, they will get killed in the field position battle and may not be able to recover.
4) Without solid offensive and defensive lines, it is easy to lose to BYU. BYU has big, strong, experienced, well-coached offensive linemen. BYU has solid, aggressive, expereienced, and physical defensive linemen. If UTEP cannot get good line play, it won't matter what else they do. If BYU's OL and FB can block 6 (or even 7) of UTEP's front 7, look for BYU's rushing attack to flourish, i.e. 200 yards or more. If they can protect Heaps, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gives up 223 yards/game. If BYU's front 3 can tie up 4 or 5 UTEP OL, it opens up the LBs and Safeties to be able to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.
In summary, these are the reasons that BYU is such a heavy favorite.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
A Few BYU Notes, 12/14/2010
Big Changes at Texas Good For BYU
I will highlight this in more detail in a report to come after the bowl season about BYU's 2011 opponents, but Texas had a rough season and it will benefit BYU in a lot of ways. The most obvious of which: they fired their Offensive Coordinator and their Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp just took the head coaching job at Florida. Turmoil for Texas equals blessings for BYU. Merry Christmas, Cougar fans, Texas will be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball in week two, without 15 postseason practices and a bowl game to ease into it. Texas will play Rice in week 1 and BYU is playing the Longhorns ahead of Texas' revenge game at UCLA in week 3. This gives BYU a much more legitimate shot in Austin on September 10th.
Fighting Hunger
BYU has signed a deal with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in 2013. This will pit the Cougars against a 6th selection from the Pac 12. It looks a lot like the Vegas Bowl, unfortunately, albeit a little bit worse of a game. Vegas gets the 5th selection from the Pac 12, and has a payout of $1M. Kraft Fight Hunger gets the 6th, and the current payout is $750k, though the financial arrangements made with BYU have not yet been disclosed. Army will play in the game in 2011, Navy in 2012, and BYU in 2013. If the Pac 12 does not have 6 bowl-eligible teams, the 9th-place ACC team is contracted to the game. It is definitely a step up from the New Mexico Bowl, and it is certainly better than nothing. BYU has no contracts in place yet for 2011 or 2012.
Climbing the Rankings
BYU moved up to 16th in the AP poll this week. That is their highest December ranking in the Dave Rose era. In fact, it is the highest pre-Valentine's Day ranking of the Dave Rose era. If they can survive against UCLA this weekend, they should have smooth sailing, and a top 15 ranking, heading into their January 5th showdown at UNLV. It also looks very likely that BYU could be 18-1, or at worst 17-2, heading into their game with SDSU at home on January 26th. SDSU will likely come in with a similar record but with a slightly higher ranking. At 18-1, both schools would likely be in the top 10. The MWC hasn't ever had a conference matchup like that in its history. Too bad it won't be broadcast on a "normal" station. The rematch, set for San Diego on February 26th will be on REGULAR CBS. Both teams could realistically be 24-3 or better for the rematch...not projecting too far ahead on that one, but both games should involve two top 20 teams. A great season for the MWC, just in time for it to get dismantled.
Another Expansion Move
Hawaii joins the MWC in football, and all other sports move to the Big West. [So the MWC was willing to make concessions and change its bylaws to get Hawaii in football, but not willing to do anything to keep BYU. Interesting. I imagine the remainder of this basketball season will show more about what MWC teams and fans really think about BYU. SDSU got the party started with their complaints about a replay in their football game against BYU. I imagine New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU road basketball games will also be "interesting" venues. Keep your families safe, or better yet, just stay away and protect yourself from the profane outbursts of the non-silent minority.] The move destroys the WAC, essentially beyond repair. It leaves them with 7 conference members in 2012, with nowhere to go to find the NCAA-mandated 8th football team. The biggest loser in all of this continues to be the honorable Utah State, which stuck to an agreement they had with the WAC and BYU, turning down an MWC bid in the process, and will be left out in the cold when all of this settles.
It also helps the BCS conferences. They stole TCU and Utah, BYU left for Independence, so Boise State is joining a mildly better conference, but one that will not give them any more marquee wins than the WAC did. The additional tough games of Air Force and San Diego State, plus the occasionally not horrible CSU or Wyoming teams, will make it more difficult for Boise State (or Hawaii) to go undefeated. It will probably also weaken the other non-BCS conferences, as one or two of them will surely add one of the remaining WAC teams, which will ultimately weaken their conferences as a whole. The BCS will not have to worry about an upstart non-AQ school "stealing" a BCS bid every year, perhaps just every other year. This was well-played by the BCS conferences. They destroyed the MWC as a serious potential BCS conference, made it more difficult for any non-AQ to go undefeated, and ensured that never again will more than one non-AQ crash the party. This was exactly as I said it would happen, though it does not appear to have been a coordinated effort as I thought it might be (or should have been if they were intelligent)...
I will highlight this in more detail in a report to come after the bowl season about BYU's 2011 opponents, but Texas had a rough season and it will benefit BYU in a lot of ways. The most obvious of which: they fired their Offensive Coordinator and their Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp just took the head coaching job at Florida. Turmoil for Texas equals blessings for BYU. Merry Christmas, Cougar fans, Texas will be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball in week two, without 15 postseason practices and a bowl game to ease into it. Texas will play Rice in week 1 and BYU is playing the Longhorns ahead of Texas' revenge game at UCLA in week 3. This gives BYU a much more legitimate shot in Austin on September 10th.
Fighting Hunger
BYU has signed a deal with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in 2013. This will pit the Cougars against a 6th selection from the Pac 12. It looks a lot like the Vegas Bowl, unfortunately, albeit a little bit worse of a game. Vegas gets the 5th selection from the Pac 12, and has a payout of $1M. Kraft Fight Hunger gets the 6th, and the current payout is $750k, though the financial arrangements made with BYU have not yet been disclosed. Army will play in the game in 2011, Navy in 2012, and BYU in 2013. If the Pac 12 does not have 6 bowl-eligible teams, the 9th-place ACC team is contracted to the game. It is definitely a step up from the New Mexico Bowl, and it is certainly better than nothing. BYU has no contracts in place yet for 2011 or 2012.
Climbing the Rankings
BYU moved up to 16th in the AP poll this week. That is their highest December ranking in the Dave Rose era. In fact, it is the highest pre-Valentine's Day ranking of the Dave Rose era. If they can survive against UCLA this weekend, they should have smooth sailing, and a top 15 ranking, heading into their January 5th showdown at UNLV. It also looks very likely that BYU could be 18-1, or at worst 17-2, heading into their game with SDSU at home on January 26th. SDSU will likely come in with a similar record but with a slightly higher ranking. At 18-1, both schools would likely be in the top 10. The MWC hasn't ever had a conference matchup like that in its history. Too bad it won't be broadcast on a "normal" station. The rematch, set for San Diego on February 26th will be on REGULAR CBS. Both teams could realistically be 24-3 or better for the rematch...not projecting too far ahead on that one, but both games should involve two top 20 teams. A great season for the MWC, just in time for it to get dismantled.
Another Expansion Move
Hawaii joins the MWC in football, and all other sports move to the Big West. [So the MWC was willing to make concessions and change its bylaws to get Hawaii in football, but not willing to do anything to keep BYU. Interesting. I imagine the remainder of this basketball season will show more about what MWC teams and fans really think about BYU. SDSU got the party started with their complaints about a replay in their football game against BYU. I imagine New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU road basketball games will also be "interesting" venues. Keep your families safe, or better yet, just stay away and protect yourself from the profane outbursts of the non-silent minority.] The move destroys the WAC, essentially beyond repair. It leaves them with 7 conference members in 2012, with nowhere to go to find the NCAA-mandated 8th football team. The biggest loser in all of this continues to be the honorable Utah State, which stuck to an agreement they had with the WAC and BYU, turning down an MWC bid in the process, and will be left out in the cold when all of this settles.
It also helps the BCS conferences. They stole TCU and Utah, BYU left for Independence, so Boise State is joining a mildly better conference, but one that will not give them any more marquee wins than the WAC did. The additional tough games of Air Force and San Diego State, plus the occasionally not horrible CSU or Wyoming teams, will make it more difficult for Boise State (or Hawaii) to go undefeated. It will probably also weaken the other non-BCS conferences, as one or two of them will surely add one of the remaining WAC teams, which will ultimately weaken their conferences as a whole. The BCS will not have to worry about an upstart non-AQ school "stealing" a BCS bid every year, perhaps just every other year. This was well-played by the BCS conferences. They destroyed the MWC as a serious potential BCS conference, made it more difficult for any non-AQ to go undefeated, and ensured that never again will more than one non-AQ crash the party. This was exactly as I said it would happen, though it does not appear to have been a coordinated effort as I thought it might be (or should have been if they were intelligent)...
Monday, December 13, 2010
Mo's Second Look at BYU's 2010 New Mexico Bowl Opponent
The Schedule and Results, Part II
Game 7: UAB, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP lost 21-6 on the road
Highs: The Miners led 6-0 in the game before doing absolutely nothing the rest of the game.
Lows: 3 interceptions thrown. 500 yards of offense given up. 5.4 yards/carry given up, for 228 yards.
Game 8: Tulane, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP lost 34-24 at home.
Highs: UTEP led this game multiple times. They fought back when trailing on several occasions. They only committed four penalties
Lows: They got killed in time of possession. They threw 2 more interceptions. They had under 50% completion percentage. They gave up 461 yards and 34 points at home to a team that finished 4-8.
Game 9: Marshall, 5-7 record
Result: UTEP lost 16-12 on the road
Highs: They drove down the field late in the game to take the lead with 5 1/2 minutes left. Vittatoe was 22-40 for 229 yards and a touchdown.
Lows: They gave up a 100-yard INT return on a two-point conversion attempt. They averaged 2.4 yards/carry. They allowed Marshall to rush for 5.1 yards/carry.
Game 10: SMU, 7-6 record
Result: UTEP won 28-14 at home
Highs: This is their only win against a team with a winning record (a precarious 7-6). Vittatoe threw 3 TDs and completed 61% of his passes. Punter Ian Campbell averaged 47 yards/punt.
Lows: 3.5 yards/carry for the Miner RBs. They were actually outgained on the day 359-319.
Game 11: Arkansas, 10-2 record
Result: UTEP lost 58-21 on the road
Highs: They scored 21 points against an SEC defense. They led the game 14-7 early. Vittatoe completed 62% of his passes. Leilyon Myers had his best game of the season, with 6 rushes for 71 yards (5 rushes for 20 yards and 1 rush for 51).
Lows: They were minus 3 in turnover margin. They gave up 58 points and 577 yards, including over 300 yards rushing.
Game 12: Tulsa, 9-3 record
Result: UTEP lost 31-28 on the road
Highs: They played an 8-3 team essentially to a draw on the road. Banyard ran for 155 yards on 20 carries, with 3 TDs. They had two pass plays go for over 30 yards.
Lows: They gave up 325 passing yards and 218 rushing yards. They were 5-14 on third downs. They had 3 straight possessions in Tulsa territory in the fourth quarter and could not mount a game-tying field goal.
Offensive Stats
Rushing: 69th, 149.5 yards/game
Passing: 60th, 221.5 yards/game
Total: 72nd, 371 yards/game
Scoring: 70th, 26.17 points/game
3rd Down Conversion % Offense: 15th, 48.8% conversion rate
Red Zone Offense: 38th, 85% conversion rate
Sacks Allowed: 23rd, 1.25 sacks/game
Defensive Stats
Rushing: 90th, 181.17 yards/game
Passing: 72nd, 223 yards/game
Total: 86th, 404.17 yards/game
Scoring: 58th, 25.42 points/game
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 115th, 48.52% conversion rate
Red Zone Defense: 60th, 80% conversion rate
Sacks: 105th, 1.17 sacks/game
Miscellaneous Stats
Net Punting: 67th, 36.47 yards/punt
Turnover Margin: 80th, -.33 turnovers/game
Yards Penalized Per Game: 59th, 51.33 penalty yards/game
Kickoff Returns: 10th, 25.69 yards/return
Kickoff Return Defense: 81st, 22.29 yards/return
Punt Returns: 11th, 13.87 yards/return
Punt Return Defense: 109th, 13.25 yards/return
Time of Possession: 71st, 29:27/game
Game 7: UAB, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP lost 21-6 on the road
Highs: The Miners led 6-0 in the game before doing absolutely nothing the rest of the game.
Lows: 3 interceptions thrown. 500 yards of offense given up. 5.4 yards/carry given up, for 228 yards.
Game 8: Tulane, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP lost 34-24 at home.
Highs: UTEP led this game multiple times. They fought back when trailing on several occasions. They only committed four penalties
Lows: They got killed in time of possession. They threw 2 more interceptions. They had under 50% completion percentage. They gave up 461 yards and 34 points at home to a team that finished 4-8.
Game 9: Marshall, 5-7 record
Result: UTEP lost 16-12 on the road
Highs: They drove down the field late in the game to take the lead with 5 1/2 minutes left. Vittatoe was 22-40 for 229 yards and a touchdown.
Lows: They gave up a 100-yard INT return on a two-point conversion attempt. They averaged 2.4 yards/carry. They allowed Marshall to rush for 5.1 yards/carry.
Game 10: SMU, 7-6 record
Result: UTEP won 28-14 at home
Highs: This is their only win against a team with a winning record (a precarious 7-6). Vittatoe threw 3 TDs and completed 61% of his passes. Punter Ian Campbell averaged 47 yards/punt.
Lows: 3.5 yards/carry for the Miner RBs. They were actually outgained on the day 359-319.
Game 11: Arkansas, 10-2 record
Result: UTEP lost 58-21 on the road
Highs: They scored 21 points against an SEC defense. They led the game 14-7 early. Vittatoe completed 62% of his passes. Leilyon Myers had his best game of the season, with 6 rushes for 71 yards (5 rushes for 20 yards and 1 rush for 51).
Lows: They were minus 3 in turnover margin. They gave up 58 points and 577 yards, including over 300 yards rushing.
Game 12: Tulsa, 9-3 record
Result: UTEP lost 31-28 on the road
Highs: They played an 8-3 team essentially to a draw on the road. Banyard ran for 155 yards on 20 carries, with 3 TDs. They had two pass plays go for over 30 yards.
Lows: They gave up 325 passing yards and 218 rushing yards. They were 5-14 on third downs. They had 3 straight possessions in Tulsa territory in the fourth quarter and could not mount a game-tying field goal.
Offensive Stats
Rushing: 69th, 149.5 yards/game
Passing: 60th, 221.5 yards/game
Total: 72nd, 371 yards/game
Scoring: 70th, 26.17 points/game
3rd Down Conversion % Offense: 15th, 48.8% conversion rate
Red Zone Offense: 38th, 85% conversion rate
Sacks Allowed: 23rd, 1.25 sacks/game
Defensive Stats
Rushing: 90th, 181.17 yards/game
Passing: 72nd, 223 yards/game
Total: 86th, 404.17 yards/game
Scoring: 58th, 25.42 points/game
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 115th, 48.52% conversion rate
Red Zone Defense: 60th, 80% conversion rate
Sacks: 105th, 1.17 sacks/game
Miscellaneous Stats
Net Punting: 67th, 36.47 yards/punt
Turnover Margin: 80th, -.33 turnovers/game
Yards Penalized Per Game: 59th, 51.33 penalty yards/game
Kickoff Returns: 10th, 25.69 yards/return
Kickoff Return Defense: 81st, 22.29 yards/return
Punt Returns: 11th, 13.87 yards/return
Punt Return Defense: 109th, 13.25 yards/return
Time of Possession: 71st, 29:27/game
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Arizona-BYU 2010 Hoops Preview
A Look at Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats are 8-1 this season, with the lone loss coming by 8 points in a hard-fought game against Kansas. They are currently 77th in the CBS Sportsline RPI with a strength of schedule of 196. This game will dramatically help their RPI and Strength of Schedule, regardless of the outcome.
They legitimately go 10-deep. Sophomore Forward Derrick Williams headlines the group, averaging 20.2 points/game and 7.6 rebounds/game, both team highs. He also leads the team in minutes, steals, and blocks. He is a full-grown man, at 6'8" and 241 pounds. He is strong around the basket, too strong for Brandon Davies. He is also very quick off the dribble, too quick for Noah Hartsock.
They are all about athleticism, speed, and penetration. They like to drive to the basket and get to the rim. But they kick it out to open shooters when it isn't there. They have capable shooters, but not a go-to guy on the outside to focus on. Jamelle Horn, Kyle Fogg, Jordan Mayes, and Brendon Lavender are all guys that could get hot from the outside. They have 7 guys in addition to Williams who have scored in double figures this season, so the rest of the scoring really could come from anywhere.
They do not employ a true center, except for a handful of minutes a game. So their defense is focused on disruption on the perimeter and denying the ball inside. They are not a great shot-blocking team, but they play pretty solid team and help-side defense. After Jimmer went for 49 points last season, they might focus more on him and allow more freedom for BYU in the middle.
The Venue
BYU has played quite a few games at the Energy Solutions Arena over the past few years, with mostly good results. They squeaked by Oklahoma State there, but lost a close one to Michigan State. They outlasted Utah State, but got downed by Washington State. And they played some inferior competition there and won handily.
BYU At-A-Glance
This is already BYU's 4th game in December. In the last two weeks, BYU has played games in Texas, Nebraska, New York, and Salt Lake City. They get the next week off before traveling to Anaheim to take on UCLA next Saturday. The past two weeks, BYU has played a pretty tight rotation, cutting it to 7 or 8, and sometimes even 6, guys in most games. Perhaps fatigue will be a factor.
Chris Collinsworth is still out with a foot injury, which keeps the rotation even tighter, without another reliable big body down low. Hartsock and Emery join Jimmer as the only Cougars averaging double figures. Davies is just one good game away from averaging double digits. They are doing well rebounding as a team, but they do not have someone that could go out and get 10 boards consistently if they needed.
Catching the Game
The game will be on BYU-TV today at 4pm Mountain. You can also catch the action online at byutv.org. The audio, as always, is available on the ksl.com live audio stream.
Prediction
This is a game that BYU absolutely needs to win. It is an athletic opponent with a real chance to win the Pac 10. A win would give legitimacy to wins of potentially questionable value, at least nationally (Utah State and St. Mary's are quality wins but there are always skeptics of the mid major teams). It is also a game that BYU cannot afford to lose, against a team that is not in the RPI top 50 and in a game played in the state of Utah.
BYU will be the best perimeter defense that Zona will have faced up until this point. However, they are softer in the middle, particularly if Hartsock gets in foul trouble. Arizona will be the most athletic team, and one of the most well-coached, that BYU will have played to date. I would anticipate a very wide-open, but very sloppy, game on both sides. Turnovers, missed shots, and fouls will be aplenty in this battle of future NCAA Tournament teams.
No question that BYU gets a real test here. I think Arizona will hold a slim lead going into the final minutes of the game. BYU is the veteran team, with the crowd on their side. Arizona is the young team, in a mostly hostile environment. That would seem to favor BYU pulling this out by making plays down the stretch. But, in the end, BYU's traditionally poor shooting away from the Marriott Center will doom them in this game. Unless someone like Stephen Rogers can find a way to get hot outside, or someone like Charles Abouo or Kyle Collinsworth can step up and get 8 cheap points from the free throw line, I think BYU will shoot and miss too many from the outside, with too many empty possessions to keep up with the more-efficient Arizona Wildcats. Arizona 69, BYU 65.
The Arizona Wildcats are 8-1 this season, with the lone loss coming by 8 points in a hard-fought game against Kansas. They are currently 77th in the CBS Sportsline RPI with a strength of schedule of 196. This game will dramatically help their RPI and Strength of Schedule, regardless of the outcome.
They legitimately go 10-deep. Sophomore Forward Derrick Williams headlines the group, averaging 20.2 points/game and 7.6 rebounds/game, both team highs. He also leads the team in minutes, steals, and blocks. He is a full-grown man, at 6'8" and 241 pounds. He is strong around the basket, too strong for Brandon Davies. He is also very quick off the dribble, too quick for Noah Hartsock.
They are all about athleticism, speed, and penetration. They like to drive to the basket and get to the rim. But they kick it out to open shooters when it isn't there. They have capable shooters, but not a go-to guy on the outside to focus on. Jamelle Horn, Kyle Fogg, Jordan Mayes, and Brendon Lavender are all guys that could get hot from the outside. They have 7 guys in addition to Williams who have scored in double figures this season, so the rest of the scoring really could come from anywhere.
They do not employ a true center, except for a handful of minutes a game. So their defense is focused on disruption on the perimeter and denying the ball inside. They are not a great shot-blocking team, but they play pretty solid team and help-side defense. After Jimmer went for 49 points last season, they might focus more on him and allow more freedom for BYU in the middle.
The Venue
BYU has played quite a few games at the Energy Solutions Arena over the past few years, with mostly good results. They squeaked by Oklahoma State there, but lost a close one to Michigan State. They outlasted Utah State, but got downed by Washington State. And they played some inferior competition there and won handily.
BYU At-A-Glance
This is already BYU's 4th game in December. In the last two weeks, BYU has played games in Texas, Nebraska, New York, and Salt Lake City. They get the next week off before traveling to Anaheim to take on UCLA next Saturday. The past two weeks, BYU has played a pretty tight rotation, cutting it to 7 or 8, and sometimes even 6, guys in most games. Perhaps fatigue will be a factor.
Chris Collinsworth is still out with a foot injury, which keeps the rotation even tighter, without another reliable big body down low. Hartsock and Emery join Jimmer as the only Cougars averaging double figures. Davies is just one good game away from averaging double digits. They are doing well rebounding as a team, but they do not have someone that could go out and get 10 boards consistently if they needed.
Catching the Game
The game will be on BYU-TV today at 4pm Mountain. You can also catch the action online at byutv.org. The audio, as always, is available on the ksl.com live audio stream.
Prediction
This is a game that BYU absolutely needs to win. It is an athletic opponent with a real chance to win the Pac 10. A win would give legitimacy to wins of potentially questionable value, at least nationally (Utah State and St. Mary's are quality wins but there are always skeptics of the mid major teams). It is also a game that BYU cannot afford to lose, against a team that is not in the RPI top 50 and in a game played in the state of Utah.
BYU will be the best perimeter defense that Zona will have faced up until this point. However, they are softer in the middle, particularly if Hartsock gets in foul trouble. Arizona will be the most athletic team, and one of the most well-coached, that BYU will have played to date. I would anticipate a very wide-open, but very sloppy, game on both sides. Turnovers, missed shots, and fouls will be aplenty in this battle of future NCAA Tournament teams.
No question that BYU gets a real test here. I think Arizona will hold a slim lead going into the final minutes of the game. BYU is the veteran team, with the crowd on their side. Arizona is the young team, in a mostly hostile environment. That would seem to favor BYU pulling this out by making plays down the stretch. But, in the end, BYU's traditionally poor shooting away from the Marriott Center will doom them in this game. Unless someone like Stephen Rogers can find a way to get hot outside, or someone like Charles Abouo or Kyle Collinsworth can step up and get 8 cheap points from the free throw line, I think BYU will shoot and miss too many from the outside, with too many empty possessions to keep up with the more-efficient Arizona Wildcats. Arizona 69, BYU 65.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Mo's First Look at BYU's 2010 New Mexico Bowl Opponent
The Opponent
The UTEP Miners finished in 4th place in the Conference USA West Division, with a 6-6 overall record, and a 3-5 record in conference. According to Jeff Sagarin's Elo Chess Formula (used in BCS standings), they are the 116th-rated team in Division I (behind 20 FCS schools). There are only two bowl-eligible teams rated lower than they are and both are Sun Belt teams. They accomplished this playing the 127th-toughest schedule, again according to Jeff Sagarin.
The Stars
QB Trevor Vittatoe threw for over 2500 yards and 19 TDs.
RB Joseph Banyard rushed for 612 yards and 8 TDs, averaging 5.7 yards/carry.
WR Kris Adams had 44 receptions for 917 yards and 11 TDs, averaging over 20 yards/catch.
CB Travaun Nixon had 3 interceptions and 69 tackles.
S Wiston Jeune and LB Jamie Irving led the team in tackles with 79 and 78, respectively.
The Schedule and Results, Part I
Game 1: Arkansas Pine-Bluff (FCS), 5-6 record.
Result: UTEP won 31-10 at home.
Highs: UTEP rushed and passed for over 200 yards each. They held the Golden Lions to 76 rushing yards (Pine-Bluff averaged 135 yards/game).
Lows: UTEP did not throw a TD pass, despite 27 passing attempts. Arkansas Pine-Bluff WR Raymond Webber had 10 catches for 123 yards against the Miner secondary. The score was 14-10 at halftime.
Game 2: Houston, 5-7 record.
Result: UTEP lost 54-24 on the road.
Highs: Trevor Vittatoe threw for 340 yards and 3 TDs, with no interceptions. They held Case Keenum to under 300 yards (no minor feat) and zero touchdowns.
Lows: The Miners had only 100 rushing yards in a game with nearly 1100 yards of total offense. They gave up over 300 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. The final score was also a low: 54 points given up in a single game.
Game 3: New Mexico State, 2-10 record
Result: UTEP won 42-10 at home.
Highs: Trevor Vittatoe threw for 246 yards and 5 TDs. The running game contributed 249 yards on 7.1 yards/carry. They held NMSU to less than 100 rushing yards and a 53% completion percentage.
Lows: Kick coverage allowed a punt and kickoff return for over 30 yards. The Miners only led by 11 points at halftime, at home, against one of the worst teams in college football.
Game 4: Memphis, 1-11 record
Result: UTEP won 16-13 at home.
Highs: 10 different Miners had catches. They held Memphis to under 300 yards of offense. They won.
Lows: They only got 288 total yards against the 114th-rated defense in the country. UTEP averaged under 4 yards/carry. Vittatoe had a sub-50% completion percentage. They lost time of possession by over 9 minutes. They only won by 3 at home against a 1-11 team.
Game 5: New Mexico, 1-11 record
Result: UTEP won 38-20 on the road.
Highs: Kris Adams had 5 catches for 141 yards and 2 TDs. Trevor Banyard had his 3rd highest rushing total of the season with 90 yards. Trevor Vittatoe threw for 264 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The Miner defense held New Mexico to 237 total yards.
Lows: Only a 54% completion percentage against the 111th passing efficiency defense in the country. They gave up 20 points to the 116th scoring team in the country.
Game 6: Rice, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP won 44-24 at home
Highs: Vittatoe threw for 327 yards and 3 TDs in the win, averaging over 10 yards/attempt (only time this season). Adams had 5 catches for 134 yards and 3 TDs. Pierce Hunter also had more than 100 receiving yards in the game. UTEP committed no turnovers.
Lows: Allowed 3 passing TDs. Didn't force any turnovers. Allowed 25 yards/punt return.
Thoughts Through 6 Games
Through 6 games, UTEP was 5-1. They had yet to play a bowl-bound team. They were outplayed at home by a 1-11 team. They have had a couple of good games, but the opponents were all very lousy. In several games, they won in spite of themselves and because of their competition. They were probably the most lousy 5-1 team I have ever analyzed...and this with a 4-year starter at QB, and several other veteran contributors on both sides of the ball.
The UTEP Miners finished in 4th place in the Conference USA West Division, with a 6-6 overall record, and a 3-5 record in conference. According to Jeff Sagarin's Elo Chess Formula (used in BCS standings), they are the 116th-rated team in Division I (behind 20 FCS schools). There are only two bowl-eligible teams rated lower than they are and both are Sun Belt teams. They accomplished this playing the 127th-toughest schedule, again according to Jeff Sagarin.
The Stars
QB Trevor Vittatoe threw for over 2500 yards and 19 TDs.
RB Joseph Banyard rushed for 612 yards and 8 TDs, averaging 5.7 yards/carry.
WR Kris Adams had 44 receptions for 917 yards and 11 TDs, averaging over 20 yards/catch.
CB Travaun Nixon had 3 interceptions and 69 tackles.
S Wiston Jeune and LB Jamie Irving led the team in tackles with 79 and 78, respectively.
The Schedule and Results, Part I
Game 1: Arkansas Pine-Bluff (FCS), 5-6 record.
Result: UTEP won 31-10 at home.
Highs: UTEP rushed and passed for over 200 yards each. They held the Golden Lions to 76 rushing yards (Pine-Bluff averaged 135 yards/game).
Lows: UTEP did not throw a TD pass, despite 27 passing attempts. Arkansas Pine-Bluff WR Raymond Webber had 10 catches for 123 yards against the Miner secondary. The score was 14-10 at halftime.
Game 2: Houston, 5-7 record.
Result: UTEP lost 54-24 on the road.
Highs: Trevor Vittatoe threw for 340 yards and 3 TDs, with no interceptions. They held Case Keenum to under 300 yards (no minor feat) and zero touchdowns.
Lows: The Miners had only 100 rushing yards in a game with nearly 1100 yards of total offense. They gave up over 300 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. The final score was also a low: 54 points given up in a single game.
Game 3: New Mexico State, 2-10 record
Result: UTEP won 42-10 at home.
Highs: Trevor Vittatoe threw for 246 yards and 5 TDs. The running game contributed 249 yards on 7.1 yards/carry. They held NMSU to less than 100 rushing yards and a 53% completion percentage.
Lows: Kick coverage allowed a punt and kickoff return for over 30 yards. The Miners only led by 11 points at halftime, at home, against one of the worst teams in college football.
Game 4: Memphis, 1-11 record
Result: UTEP won 16-13 at home.
Highs: 10 different Miners had catches. They held Memphis to under 300 yards of offense. They won.
Lows: They only got 288 total yards against the 114th-rated defense in the country. UTEP averaged under 4 yards/carry. Vittatoe had a sub-50% completion percentage. They lost time of possession by over 9 minutes. They only won by 3 at home against a 1-11 team.
Game 5: New Mexico, 1-11 record
Result: UTEP won 38-20 on the road.
Highs: Kris Adams had 5 catches for 141 yards and 2 TDs. Trevor Banyard had his 3rd highest rushing total of the season with 90 yards. Trevor Vittatoe threw for 264 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The Miner defense held New Mexico to 237 total yards.
Lows: Only a 54% completion percentage against the 111th passing efficiency defense in the country. They gave up 20 points to the 116th scoring team in the country.
Game 6: Rice, 4-8 record
Result: UTEP won 44-24 at home
Highs: Vittatoe threw for 327 yards and 3 TDs in the win, averaging over 10 yards/attempt (only time this season). Adams had 5 catches for 134 yards and 3 TDs. Pierce Hunter also had more than 100 receiving yards in the game. UTEP committed no turnovers.
Lows: Allowed 3 passing TDs. Didn't force any turnovers. Allowed 25 yards/punt return.
Thoughts Through 6 Games
Through 6 games, UTEP was 5-1. They had yet to play a bowl-bound team. They were outplayed at home by a 1-11 team. They have had a couple of good games, but the opponents were all very lousy. In several games, they won in spite of themselves and because of their competition. They were probably the most lousy 5-1 team I have ever analyzed...and this with a 4-year starter at QB, and several other veteran contributors on both sides of the ball.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
BYU Hoops Opponents and the RPI
BYU currently sits at number 12 in the RPI, according to CBS Sportsline.com. Obviously this number is subject to change, it will tomorrow, in fact, but it is an important number to keep an eye on, since it is one of the criterion used in determining NCAA Tournament bids and seeding. Here is a rundown of BYU's future non-conference opponents, past non-conference opponents, and future conference opponents. The trends I believe are important are: BYU will probably play 8 games against teams in the top 50 in the RPI (St. Mary's will probably be in the top 50 by season's end and BYU will probably get at least one game in the MWC Tourney against a top-50 team, though Vermont may not be there at season's end...) and probably an additional 4-6 against the rest of the top 100. They will only have 6 or 7 games against teams in the the 200 to bottom range, which is also important to keep relatively (see New Mexico's RPI with a 5-1 record).
This may end up being one of the strongest collection of games BYU has had in years, they just need to keep winning to take advantage and put together its most impressive resume as well. Having between 13-15 games against the top-100 is going to be huge, along with the 8 top-50 games. This allows BYU a margin for error that they have not typically had in the past. For a mid-major, a .667 winning percentage against the top 100 is about the cutoff in terms of getting an at-large (that would be about 10-5/9-4 for BYU: BYU is currently 4-0 against the top 100, so they would only need to go 6-5 the rest of the way). Being at or near .500 against the top 50 helps in securing single-digit seeding as well (that would be 4-4 for BYU: they are already 3-0, counting St. Mary's as described above, so would only need to be 1-4 in games against MWC top 50 teams).
I believe that BYU could lose to Arizona, UNLV (max of twice), SDSU (max of twice), and New Mexico (only twice if they met in the MWC tournament), but they should handily win every other game on the schedule, barring a major upset. If BYU had only 5 or 6 losses, they would be a single-digit NCAA Tournament team, with a final RPI in the top 30. If it goes south, no guarantees. BYU has a chance to do something they have not done in my memory: win 5 non-conference games against top 100 RPI opponents. Just win, baby.
Future Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Arizona: 82
Buffalo: 161
UCLA: 168
Weber State: 187
UTEP: 209
Previous Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Utah State: 26
Vermont: 38
St. Mary's: 55
South Florida: 86
Creighton: 142
Hawaii: 176
MVSU: 189
Fresno State: 199
Chicago State: 259
MWC Opponents: RPI
San Diego State: 9
UNLV: 13
New Mexico: 93
TCU: 120
Utah: 132
Air Force: 156
Colorado State: 246
Wyoming: 275
This may end up being one of the strongest collection of games BYU has had in years, they just need to keep winning to take advantage and put together its most impressive resume as well. Having between 13-15 games against the top-100 is going to be huge, along with the 8 top-50 games. This allows BYU a margin for error that they have not typically had in the past. For a mid-major, a .667 winning percentage against the top 100 is about the cutoff in terms of getting an at-large (that would be about 10-5/9-4 for BYU: BYU is currently 4-0 against the top 100, so they would only need to go 6-5 the rest of the way). Being at or near .500 against the top 50 helps in securing single-digit seeding as well (that would be 4-4 for BYU: they are already 3-0, counting St. Mary's as described above, so would only need to be 1-4 in games against MWC top 50 teams).
I believe that BYU could lose to Arizona, UNLV (max of twice), SDSU (max of twice), and New Mexico (only twice if they met in the MWC tournament), but they should handily win every other game on the schedule, barring a major upset. If BYU had only 5 or 6 losses, they would be a single-digit NCAA Tournament team, with a final RPI in the top 30. If it goes south, no guarantees. BYU has a chance to do something they have not done in my memory: win 5 non-conference games against top 100 RPI opponents. Just win, baby.
Future Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Arizona: 82
Buffalo: 161
UCLA: 168
Weber State: 187
UTEP: 209
Previous Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Utah State: 26
Vermont: 38
St. Mary's: 55
South Florida: 86
Creighton: 142
Hawaii: 176
MVSU: 189
Fresno State: 199
Chicago State: 259
MWC Opponents: RPI
San Diego State: 9
UNLV: 13
New Mexico: 93
TCU: 120
Utah: 132
Air Force: 156
Colorado State: 246
Wyoming: 275
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
BYU Football Schedule Update
BYU-TV (or available through online streaming at byutv.org) will air a one-hour special about BYU's Road to Independence tonight. The initial airing will be at 6pm Mountain (interesting that this directly coincides with the second half of the Jimmer Game, but whatever, another example of how football drives the machine). Another showing will immediately follow at 7pm. The final viewing will be at 11:15pm Mountain.
BYU currently has 12 games scheduled, but only 6 of them have dates associated with them. BYU recently added Idaho State to the schedule. I think it will probably be a show describing the 2011 football opponents, giving exact dates (and perhaps some broadcast plans) for all of the games, and discussing what it took to make the Independent Dream a reality. Maybe they will decide to announce a 13th game...don't bet on it. I am sad to see they did not get anything worked out with any of the MWC schools, I thought Air Force might have been a possibility in 2011. They still have an opening in their schedule and have expressed at least some interest in playing BYU in the future.
BYU's presently announced 2011 schedule:
Saturday September 3, at Ole Miss
Saturday September 10, at Texas
Saturday September 17, Utah
Friday September 23, C-USA champion Central Florida
Friday September 30, Utah State
Saturday October 15th, at Oregon State
Other Home Games: Idaho, Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State
Other Road Games: at Hawaii, at Louisiana Tech
BYU currently has 12 games scheduled, but only 6 of them have dates associated with them. BYU recently added Idaho State to the schedule. I think it will probably be a show describing the 2011 football opponents, giving exact dates (and perhaps some broadcast plans) for all of the games, and discussing what it took to make the Independent Dream a reality. Maybe they will decide to announce a 13th game...don't bet on it. I am sad to see they did not get anything worked out with any of the MWC schools, I thought Air Force might have been a possibility in 2011. They still have an opening in their schedule and have expressed at least some interest in playing BYU in the future.
BYU's presently announced 2011 schedule:
Saturday September 3, at Ole Miss
Saturday September 10, at Texas
Saturday September 17, Utah
Friday September 23, C-USA champion Central Florida
Friday September 30, Utah State
Saturday October 15th, at Oregon State
Other Home Games: Idaho, Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State
Other Road Games: at Hawaii, at Louisiana Tech
BYU-Vermont Update
The game will not be available to stream online. It is on CBS-College Sports only. The online audio stream, as always, is available on the ksl.com web site with Greg Wrubell.
Also, an update: Vermont has stated that Brendan Bald, by and large, will draw the duties of guarding Jimmer Fredette. Brendan Bald is a 6'2", 200 sophomore guard. He is not really an offensive threat, averaging just 7 points/game on 35% shooting, so he can focus all of his efforts on the defensive side of the court without hurting Vermont's offense. This season, he has been averaging just over 24 minutes/game after playing just 10 minutes/game last season as a freshman. Can he chase Jimmer for 38 or 40 minutes up and down the court?
I imagine that other strategies, including a few "junk" defenses, will be employed in the effort to stop Jimmer, more than just putting Brendan Bald on Jimmer and saying "stop him." The best way to take the crowd out of the game is to take Jimmer out of the game. Glens Falls, NY will not care if Brandon Davies or Jackson Emery goes off for 30 points. But every play that Jimmer makes ignites the crowd. Limit Jimmer's plays, limit the crowd. Limit the crowd, limit BYU's chances to win.
Also, an update: Vermont has stated that Brendan Bald, by and large, will draw the duties of guarding Jimmer Fredette. Brendan Bald is a 6'2", 200 sophomore guard. He is not really an offensive threat, averaging just 7 points/game on 35% shooting, so he can focus all of his efforts on the defensive side of the court without hurting Vermont's offense. This season, he has been averaging just over 24 minutes/game after playing just 10 minutes/game last season as a freshman. Can he chase Jimmer for 38 or 40 minutes up and down the court?
I imagine that other strategies, including a few "junk" defenses, will be employed in the effort to stop Jimmer, more than just putting Brendan Bald on Jimmer and saying "stop him." The best way to take the crowd out of the game is to take Jimmer out of the game. Glens Falls, NY will not care if Brandon Davies or Jackson Emery goes off for 30 points. But every play that Jimmer makes ignites the crowd. Limit Jimmer's plays, limit the crowd. Limit the crowd, limit BYU's chances to win.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
BYU-Vermont in Glens Falls: The Jimmer Game
A Look at Vermont
The Vermont Catamounts have a lot of what BYU struggles with: talented big men. However, unlike Utah State, South Florida, and Hawaii, these are not big, strong big men. They are just tall and skilled, but not overpowering. Senior F Evan Fjeld goes 6'8", 215 lbs; Junior F Matt Glass goes 6'8", 210 lbs, and Freshman F Brian Voelkel goes 6'6", 210 lbs. Fjeld is the leader of the pack, averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 6.3 free throw attempts/game, while shooting 61.3% on the season. He could be a troublesome guard for Hartsock or Davies. He may also have the ability to slow down the Cougars post presence, or at least one of the two. Voelkell leads the team in assists (5.3/game) and steals (1.4/game), while playing 30 minutes/game as a freshman. Joey Accaoui is the team's Senior PG. He has the speed to stay in front of Fredette, but Jimmer has 6 inches and 30 pounds on him. I would not be surprised to see Voelkell drawing the assignment of Jimmer Fredette for long stretches during the game.
Vermont led at Connecticut in the second half before eventually falling by 16. Kemba Walker went for 42 points in that game. The win against Yale is also a "good" win, with most people feeling that Yale is one of the three frontrunners in the Ivy League race (with Harvard and Princeton). They won at Siena, which will not mean as much this season as they have gone through a sizable roster turnover and a new coach this offseason after two very successful seasons. No one else they have beaten is worth writing home about. Beatable team? Yes.
The Venue
Glens Falls Civic Center is the biggest stadium in Glens Falls. It is less than 100 miles from the University of Vermont. It is nearly 3,000 from BYU. It holds 4,806 people (in seats, standing room only tickets are being sold for this game so there will be roughly 5,800 people at the game). There will be Vermont fans there, perhaps several hundred, or even 1,000. The other 4,500+ will be Jimmer fans, and, as a result, BYU fans. Jimmer is familiar with the venue, having played, and won, the State Championship as a senior in high school at the GFCC.
The Game
Tipoff is 7pm Eastern (5pm Mountain), on CBS-College Sports. The pre-game ceremony may be worth watching, as Jimmer (and the Cougars) will certainly receive a royal welcome. I cannot confirm today, but I imagine this game will be available for online streaming at channelsurfing.net for free.
The Prediction
BYU will face a stiff test here. Vermont will be ready to spoil Jimmer's homecoming. This is a chance for a signature win for them. BYU may be distracted and complacent in such a "friendly" environment. The good news is: they can weather a strong start from the Catamounts and still rally the crowd, as long as Jimmer makes some of the plays BYU needs to get back in the game. It is a difficult venue and difficult to gauge the mindsets of the players...but I'll go with BYU to finish strong in the second half and pull away late: BYU 79, Vermont 66.
The Vermont Catamounts have a lot of what BYU struggles with: talented big men. However, unlike Utah State, South Florida, and Hawaii, these are not big, strong big men. They are just tall and skilled, but not overpowering. Senior F Evan Fjeld goes 6'8", 215 lbs; Junior F Matt Glass goes 6'8", 210 lbs, and Freshman F Brian Voelkel goes 6'6", 210 lbs. Fjeld is the leader of the pack, averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 6.3 free throw attempts/game, while shooting 61.3% on the season. He could be a troublesome guard for Hartsock or Davies. He may also have the ability to slow down the Cougars post presence, or at least one of the two. Voelkell leads the team in assists (5.3/game) and steals (1.4/game), while playing 30 minutes/game as a freshman. Joey Accaoui is the team's Senior PG. He has the speed to stay in front of Fredette, but Jimmer has 6 inches and 30 pounds on him. I would not be surprised to see Voelkell drawing the assignment of Jimmer Fredette for long stretches during the game.
Vermont led at Connecticut in the second half before eventually falling by 16. Kemba Walker went for 42 points in that game. The win against Yale is also a "good" win, with most people feeling that Yale is one of the three frontrunners in the Ivy League race (with Harvard and Princeton). They won at Siena, which will not mean as much this season as they have gone through a sizable roster turnover and a new coach this offseason after two very successful seasons. No one else they have beaten is worth writing home about. Beatable team? Yes.
The Venue
Glens Falls Civic Center is the biggest stadium in Glens Falls. It is less than 100 miles from the University of Vermont. It is nearly 3,000 from BYU. It holds 4,806 people (in seats, standing room only tickets are being sold for this game so there will be roughly 5,800 people at the game). There will be Vermont fans there, perhaps several hundred, or even 1,000. The other 4,500+ will be Jimmer fans, and, as a result, BYU fans. Jimmer is familiar with the venue, having played, and won, the State Championship as a senior in high school at the GFCC.
The Game
Tipoff is 7pm Eastern (5pm Mountain), on CBS-College Sports. The pre-game ceremony may be worth watching, as Jimmer (and the Cougars) will certainly receive a royal welcome. I cannot confirm today, but I imagine this game will be available for online streaming at channelsurfing.net for free.
The Prediction
BYU will face a stiff test here. Vermont will be ready to spoil Jimmer's homecoming. This is a chance for a signature win for them. BYU may be distracted and complacent in such a "friendly" environment. The good news is: they can weather a strong start from the Catamounts and still rally the crowd, as long as Jimmer makes some of the plays BYU needs to get back in the game. It is a difficult venue and difficult to gauge the mindsets of the players...but I'll go with BYU to finish strong in the second half and pull away late: BYU 79, Vermont 66.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
MWC (and all) Bowls Set
New Mexico Bowl
BYU vs. UTEP: initially leaning towards BYU. How close to a "home" game will it be for UTEP?
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Utah vs. Boise State: initially leaning towards Boise State. Motivation will be huge: will Boise State have it?
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs. SDSU: initiailly leaning towards SDSU. Is Hoke still around to coach?
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force vs. Georgia Tech: initially leaning towards Air Force. Is GT QB Nesbitt ready for the bowl game?
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
TCU vs. Wisconsin: initially leaning towards TCU. Can the Horned Frogs get past the shell shock they experienced at the Fiesta Bowl last season?
One other BCS note: for all of the complaining about non-BCS schools and their strength of schedule (most recently by Ohio State's President), 12-0 TCU demolished THREE 11-1 Big Ten schools in the computer rankings. A couple of 10-2 SEC schools also finished ahead of those 11-1 Big Ten schools: nice try Big Ten. Does 3 or 4 non-conference games against the MAC count as Little Sisters of the Poor too? What about Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue?
My initial projections would put the MWC at 4-1...vote on the poll, located on the sidebar, for your pick!
BYU vs. UTEP: initially leaning towards BYU. How close to a "home" game will it be for UTEP?
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Utah vs. Boise State: initially leaning towards Boise State. Motivation will be huge: will Boise State have it?
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs. SDSU: initiailly leaning towards SDSU. Is Hoke still around to coach?
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force vs. Georgia Tech: initially leaning towards Air Force. Is GT QB Nesbitt ready for the bowl game?
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
TCU vs. Wisconsin: initially leaning towards TCU. Can the Horned Frogs get past the shell shock they experienced at the Fiesta Bowl last season?
One other BCS note: for all of the complaining about non-BCS schools and their strength of schedule (most recently by Ohio State's President), 12-0 TCU demolished THREE 11-1 Big Ten schools in the computer rankings. A couple of 10-2 SEC schools also finished ahead of those 11-1 Big Ten schools: nice try Big Ten. Does 3 or 4 non-conference games against the MAC count as Little Sisters of the Poor too? What about Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue?
My initial projections would put the MWC at 4-1...vote on the poll, located on the sidebar, for your pick!
Conference Realignment and the 2011-2012 Bowls
Conferences Losing Teams The Big XII
The soon-to-be 10-team Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing only 1 of those teams. Presumably, Texas will be back in bowl contention next season. They also add a 9th conference game, meaning there is one less cupcake, non-conference game on each team's schedule. I think we will see only 6 or 7 teams go bowling from the Big XII next season. As long as they remain a 10-team league, they will not fill their 8 tie-ins, and could survive with 7. Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor will struggle to go bowling each year.
MWC
The soon-to-be 8-team MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 5 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing two of those teams: Utah and BYU. They are gaining Boise State. Each team gains one non-conference game, which will likely be used to either 1) get a payday game against a BCS conference school, or 2) get an easy opponent to get an extra win. Boise State, TCU, and Air Force will make bowl games. SDSU will if Hoke returns. Where will the 5th bowl-eligible team come from: 3-9 CSU, 3-9 Wyoming, 2-11 UNLV, or 1-11 New Mexico? And what if Hoke leaves SDSU? In 2012, TCU leaves, but perennial bowl teams Nevada and Fresno State, and maybe Hawaii, join the mix. They will probably need 5, or perhaps even 6, bowl games going forward. Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii will go bowling each year.
WAC
The soon-to-be 8-team WAC has 4 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing Boise State. Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State should make bowl games. Idaho, Louisiana Tech, or Utah State are viable candidates for next season, especially since Boise State falls off each of their schedules! In 2012, there is not much of a conference left: if they do keep 8 teams, it will be 8 bad teams. If Hawaii ends up leaving in 2012, they only have 7 teams currently slated for the conference: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State, and newcomers Texas State and UT-San Antonio. I don't see 4 bowl teams in that bunch.
Conferences Gaining Teams
Pac 10/12
The soon-to-be 12-team PAC 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They add only 1 bowl-eligible team in Utah. USC is still on probation through next season. Oregon State, Arizona State, California, and even presumably UCLA could get bowl-eligible next season. It's very likely that 8 of the 12 will get bowl-eligible. They'll need an extra spot going forward.
The Big Ten
The soon-to-be 12-team Big Ten has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They add Nebraska, which should go to a bowl game every year in the Big Ten. With the addition of Nebraska, however, there is one more quality conference game for 8 schools each season: they will likely remain an 8-bid league. The Big Ten has shown some interest in becoming a 14-team league still, but I doubt we'll actually see that happen.
The Big East in 2012
They have 6 bowl tie-ins. This season, they had 6 bowl-eligible teams. Cincinnati did not, which went to BCS games each of the last two seasons. It is tough to know exactly what will happen with expansion in the Big East, but if it stopped with TCU, they add a bowl-eligible team. Though that probably comes at the expense of another team getting bowl-eligible. If they stick with a 9-team league (not likely), they are probably OK with 6 bowl tie-ins, though it could not hurt to add a 7th. Notre Dame is slated to fill empty slots should the Big East fall short.
Independents
BYU joins the ranks of the independents in FBS. Navy has a tie-in. Army has several contingency tie-ins. Notre Dame has a special BCS package, and an agreement to fill empty bowls should the Big East fall short in getting enough bowl-eligible teams. BYU has no tie-ins, no special BCS treatment: they have nothing. They will need 8 wins every year to realistically have a shot to take an at-large for conferences that fall short of getting enough teams eligible. Seeing that the WAC is soon to fall apart, and the Big XII will consistently be short in its quest for bowl bids, its possible the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, or a currently lower-tier Big XII Bowl (Texas Bowl, or even Holiday Bowl) would ink a contract with BYU. Given how BYU built up the Holiday Bowl and the Vegas Bowl, I think a bowl will eventually take a chance with BYU, especially with ESPN on BYU's side, but conference realignment will have to continue to shake out and bowl contracts are going to have to expire.
The soon-to-be 10-team Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing only 1 of those teams. Presumably, Texas will be back in bowl contention next season. They also add a 9th conference game, meaning there is one less cupcake, non-conference game on each team's schedule. I think we will see only 6 or 7 teams go bowling from the Big XII next season. As long as they remain a 10-team league, they will not fill their 8 tie-ins, and could survive with 7. Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor will struggle to go bowling each year.
MWC
The soon-to-be 8-team MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 5 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing two of those teams: Utah and BYU. They are gaining Boise State. Each team gains one non-conference game, which will likely be used to either 1) get a payday game against a BCS conference school, or 2) get an easy opponent to get an extra win. Boise State, TCU, and Air Force will make bowl games. SDSU will if Hoke returns. Where will the 5th bowl-eligible team come from: 3-9 CSU, 3-9 Wyoming, 2-11 UNLV, or 1-11 New Mexico? And what if Hoke leaves SDSU? In 2012, TCU leaves, but perennial bowl teams Nevada and Fresno State, and maybe Hawaii, join the mix. They will probably need 5, or perhaps even 6, bowl games going forward. Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii will go bowling each year.
WAC
The soon-to-be 8-team WAC has 4 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing Boise State. Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State should make bowl games. Idaho, Louisiana Tech, or Utah State are viable candidates for next season, especially since Boise State falls off each of their schedules! In 2012, there is not much of a conference left: if they do keep 8 teams, it will be 8 bad teams. If Hawaii ends up leaving in 2012, they only have 7 teams currently slated for the conference: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State, and newcomers Texas State and UT-San Antonio. I don't see 4 bowl teams in that bunch.
Conferences Gaining Teams
Pac 10/12
The soon-to-be 12-team PAC 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They add only 1 bowl-eligible team in Utah. USC is still on probation through next season. Oregon State, Arizona State, California, and even presumably UCLA could get bowl-eligible next season. It's very likely that 8 of the 12 will get bowl-eligible. They'll need an extra spot going forward.
The Big Ten
The soon-to-be 12-team Big Ten has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They add Nebraska, which should go to a bowl game every year in the Big Ten. With the addition of Nebraska, however, there is one more quality conference game for 8 schools each season: they will likely remain an 8-bid league. The Big Ten has shown some interest in becoming a 14-team league still, but I doubt we'll actually see that happen.
The Big East in 2012
They have 6 bowl tie-ins. This season, they had 6 bowl-eligible teams. Cincinnati did not, which went to BCS games each of the last two seasons. It is tough to know exactly what will happen with expansion in the Big East, but if it stopped with TCU, they add a bowl-eligible team. Though that probably comes at the expense of another team getting bowl-eligible. If they stick with a 9-team league (not likely), they are probably OK with 6 bowl tie-ins, though it could not hurt to add a 7th. Notre Dame is slated to fill empty slots should the Big East fall short.
Independents
BYU joins the ranks of the independents in FBS. Navy has a tie-in. Army has several contingency tie-ins. Notre Dame has a special BCS package, and an agreement to fill empty bowls should the Big East fall short in getting enough bowl-eligible teams. BYU has no tie-ins, no special BCS treatment: they have nothing. They will need 8 wins every year to realistically have a shot to take an at-large for conferences that fall short of getting enough teams eligible. Seeing that the WAC is soon to fall apart, and the Big XII will consistently be short in its quest for bowl bids, its possible the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, or a currently lower-tier Big XII Bowl (Texas Bowl, or even Holiday Bowl) would ink a contract with BYU. Given how BYU built up the Holiday Bowl and the Vegas Bowl, I think a bowl will eventually take a chance with BYU, especially with ESPN on BYU's side, but conference realignment will have to continue to shake out and bowl contracts are going to have to expire.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
MWC Prediction, 2010 Week Fourteen, Plus Future Posts and Christmas Shopping Help
UNLV at Hawaii
Hawaii is good. UNLV sucks. Hawaii is playing for a chance to finish the season in the BCS standings for the first time since their Sugar Bowl debacle of 3 years back, which they will do if they get a win here. Hawaii 52, UNLV 10.
Sorry, I know there isn't much analysis there. The UNLV defense is giving 38 points/game, and nearly 44 points/game on the road. The Hawaii offense averages 38 points/game, and nearly 43 points/game at home. The UNLV offense averages 18 points/game. The Hawaii defense gives up 23 points/game, but only 11 points/game at home against teams with losing records. Analysis: a lot to a little.
A Thanks
Thanks again to everyone who has been following my blog. I nearly shut it down after last hoops season, but, thanks to encouragement from my wife and from many of you (and because of all of the expansion news...), I plugged back in. So thanks and I hope you enjoy my stuff. I do appreciate and welcome comments, feedback, and even guest posts. There were several milestones for the blog this week: I wrote my 500th post, the blog had its first back-to-back days with over 100 views, the blog had its first week with over 500 views, and it was also the first month with over 1,700 views. Thanks for reading. Thanks for sharing with your fellow BYU and MWC fans! I hope I can keep writing stuff you all like to hear.
Future Posts
Future non-regular posts (not previews/predictions or recaps of football or basketball games) will include: a comparison of the 2012 Big East vs. 2012 MWC (to see if there was any reason besides the BCS label that TCU left the MWC), a look ahead at BYU's 2011 football opponents, a look at what BYU is bringing back for 2011, a peak into BYU's future life as a WCC basketball team. At some point I would like to come up what all of the conferences will look like in 2012, but the Big Ten may announce another change or two in the spring. Plus anything that any of you readers would like to see. You can e-mail me with what you want to read at moknowssports@gmail.com or just leave a comment after an article. Or you can call me if you have my new home phone number: I shut off my cell phone last week...while everyone else moves forward with nicer, newer, better cell phones, I returned to just a home phone. At least it's a cordless.
Christmas Shopping Help
For those looking for board games, either for personal use or for Christmas presents, Mo recommends checking out boardgamerevolution.com. I use it, I love it. They have a plethora of games to choose from, including Days of Wonder and Rio Grande games. Games are much cheaper than anywhere else I have found them, usually between $10-$15 cheaper/game. Shipping is about $8 (I think it's free if you spend $150 or so) and it usually ships to your house in less than two weeks, complete with FedEx tracking to follow your shipment. No, they are not paying me for this advertisement, I am just trying to help people out with their Christmas shopping! Plus, I think we could all benefit from an increase in good board games!
Hawaii is good. UNLV sucks. Hawaii is playing for a chance to finish the season in the BCS standings for the first time since their Sugar Bowl debacle of 3 years back, which they will do if they get a win here. Hawaii 52, UNLV 10.
Sorry, I know there isn't much analysis there. The UNLV defense is giving 38 points/game, and nearly 44 points/game on the road. The Hawaii offense averages 38 points/game, and nearly 43 points/game at home. The UNLV offense averages 18 points/game. The Hawaii defense gives up 23 points/game, but only 11 points/game at home against teams with losing records. Analysis: a lot to a little.
A Thanks
Thanks again to everyone who has been following my blog. I nearly shut it down after last hoops season, but, thanks to encouragement from my wife and from many of you (and because of all of the expansion news...), I plugged back in. So thanks and I hope you enjoy my stuff. I do appreciate and welcome comments, feedback, and even guest posts. There were several milestones for the blog this week: I wrote my 500th post, the blog had its first back-to-back days with over 100 views, the blog had its first week with over 500 views, and it was also the first month with over 1,700 views. Thanks for reading. Thanks for sharing with your fellow BYU and MWC fans! I hope I can keep writing stuff you all like to hear.
Future Posts
Future non-regular posts (not previews/predictions or recaps of football or basketball games) will include: a comparison of the 2012 Big East vs. 2012 MWC (to see if there was any reason besides the BCS label that TCU left the MWC), a look ahead at BYU's 2011 football opponents, a look at what BYU is bringing back for 2011, a peak into BYU's future life as a WCC basketball team. At some point I would like to come up what all of the conferences will look like in 2012, but the Big Ten may announce another change or two in the spring. Plus anything that any of you readers would like to see. You can e-mail me with what you want to read at moknowssports@gmail.com or just leave a comment after an article. Or you can call me if you have my new home phone number: I shut off my cell phone last week...while everyone else moves forward with nicer, newer, better cell phones, I returned to just a home phone. At least it's a cordless.
Christmas Shopping Help
For those looking for board games, either for personal use or for Christmas presents, Mo recommends checking out boardgamerevolution.com. I use it, I love it. They have a plethora of games to choose from, including Days of Wonder and Rio Grande games. Games are much cheaper than anywhere else I have found them, usually between $10-$15 cheaper/game. Shipping is about $8 (I think it's free if you spend $150 or so) and it usually ships to your house in less than two weeks, complete with FedEx tracking to follow your shipment. No, they are not paying me for this advertisement, I am just trying to help people out with their Christmas shopping! Plus, I think we could all benefit from an increase in good board games!
Hawaii-BYU 2010 Hoops Preview
Scouting Hawaii
They are a fairly young team with little depth, which is not a good combination playing in Salt Lake City, in altitude, against a ranked opponent who advanced to the Round of 32 in last season's NCAA tournament. Hawaii's leading scorer and rebounder will also not play due to an injury. With him missing the last two games, they started one senior, one junior, two sophomores, and a freshman. The lone senior is Hiram Thompson, who dons the no. 2. He has only scored 10 or more points in 5 road games in his career: the Warriors are 0-5 in those games. As much as Hawaii would like to lean on their senior in what figures to be a hostile environment, that may not be the best idea (though he did drop 15 points on BYU last season, in an 18-point loss). This season, Hawaii is 5-0 at home, and 0-1 on the road. Only 7 players played in that lone loss on the road earlier this week.
4 players average double-digit points. Only 3 players have more assists than turnovers, and two players average over 3 turnovers a game. The true freshman from Scottsdale, AZ, no. 24 Bo Barnes is the only true outside threat for the Warriors. JC transfer and sophomore Joston Thomas is their biggest inside threat, no. 5, but BYU can counter him with a steady diet of Hartsock, Davies, or even James Anderson. If they can shut him down in single coverage, the Warriors may not have anywhere else to go for points.
BYU's Strategy
Run, run, and run some more. BYU should utilize their much deeper bench and throw 10-11 guys at Hawaii. They should push the ball and get the game in the open court as much as possible. They should look to exploit Hawaii's youth and lack of depth in the open court. Defensively, they do not need to do anything different than play solid man-to-man defense. BYU averages 10 steals and 4 blocks per game. Hawaii turned the ball over 25 times in their road loss at Cal Poly on Wednesday night, while only managing to get 35 shots in 40 minutes.
Prediction
Well, on paper this game is a blowout. Hawaii may be 5-0, but they played bad teams, and they played them all at home. Hawaii, with a more experienced team last season, lost at home by 18 to BYU. It is tough to envision a way for them to contain BYU's high-octane offense. BYU 88, Hawaii 59. Remember, you can view this game at 4pm Mountain on BYU-TV or byutv.org on your internet browser, if the Auburn-South Carolina SEC Championship game on CBS, starting at 2pm Mountain, gets out of hand by 4pm...
They are a fairly young team with little depth, which is not a good combination playing in Salt Lake City, in altitude, against a ranked opponent who advanced to the Round of 32 in last season's NCAA tournament. Hawaii's leading scorer and rebounder will also not play due to an injury. With him missing the last two games, they started one senior, one junior, two sophomores, and a freshman. The lone senior is Hiram Thompson, who dons the no. 2. He has only scored 10 or more points in 5 road games in his career: the Warriors are 0-5 in those games. As much as Hawaii would like to lean on their senior in what figures to be a hostile environment, that may not be the best idea (though he did drop 15 points on BYU last season, in an 18-point loss). This season, Hawaii is 5-0 at home, and 0-1 on the road. Only 7 players played in that lone loss on the road earlier this week.
4 players average double-digit points. Only 3 players have more assists than turnovers, and two players average over 3 turnovers a game. The true freshman from Scottsdale, AZ, no. 24 Bo Barnes is the only true outside threat for the Warriors. JC transfer and sophomore Joston Thomas is their biggest inside threat, no. 5, but BYU can counter him with a steady diet of Hartsock, Davies, or even James Anderson. If they can shut him down in single coverage, the Warriors may not have anywhere else to go for points.
BYU's Strategy
Run, run, and run some more. BYU should utilize their much deeper bench and throw 10-11 guys at Hawaii. They should push the ball and get the game in the open court as much as possible. They should look to exploit Hawaii's youth and lack of depth in the open court. Defensively, they do not need to do anything different than play solid man-to-man defense. BYU averages 10 steals and 4 blocks per game. Hawaii turned the ball over 25 times in their road loss at Cal Poly on Wednesday night, while only managing to get 35 shots in 40 minutes.
Prediction
Well, on paper this game is a blowout. Hawaii may be 5-0, but they played bad teams, and they played them all at home. Hawaii, with a more experienced team last season, lost at home by 18 to BYU. It is tough to envision a way for them to contain BYU's high-octane offense. BYU 88, Hawaii 59. Remember, you can view this game at 4pm Mountain on BYU-TV or byutv.org on your internet browser, if the Auburn-South Carolina SEC Championship game on CBS, starting at 2pm Mountain, gets out of hand by 4pm...
Friday, December 3, 2010
UTEP-BYU in the New Mexico Bowl
The Announcement, and What It Might Mean
UTEP officially accepted an invitation to play BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. This could only happen if the WAC gave the thumbs up to give up a bowl slot. I believe this means that the Las Vegas Bowl (probably with some help from ESPN) made this happen. I believe that Boise State or Nevada will go to the Vegas Bowl and play Utah. shifting all WAC bowls up (except Hawaii which accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl). Really, it's a win-win for all parties.
Win for New Mexico Bowl
The New Mexico Bowl gets UTEP, which is just a 3.5-hour drive from Albuquerque. That is a much better prospect for the Bowl than Fresno State, which typically travels well, but it doesn't have real ties to New Mexico. It will boost attendance and local interest for the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP and BYU are also old rivals from the WAC, not to mention this is the 25th anniversary of the season that UTEP upset 6-1, 7th in the country, defending National Champion BYU, ending all hopes of a repeat.
Win for the WAC
Both Nevada and Boise State's bowl prospects improve. The "best" WAC bowl game would have been against a 7-5 ACC team. The "second" best WAC bowl game would have been against an 8-4 MAC team. Then Fresno State would have played a 6-6 BYU team in New Mexico. Now, Boise State will get to play a 10-2 ranked team in Vegas. Nevada will get that 7-5 ACC team, and all indications are that Boston College will be nabbed for that game. Fresno State will get to move into that game with an 8-4 MAC team. It makes each team's destination becomes a higher profile game (with the potential exception of Fresno State, just because a 6-6 BYU is still a higher profile team than any 8-4 MAC team is going to be). It gives Boise State or Nevada a chance to play a ranked team in a bowl game that will have a lot of hype and build-up to it.
Win for BYU (Theoretically)
For BYU, they get an easier opponent to beat in 6-6 UTEP. Though this game will be much more like a road game, which may be even better preparation for next season than playing a better opponent. BYU played plenty of quality opponents, I think it would probably be better to have a confidence-building bowl game instead.
Win for UTEP
The UTEP Miners were likely headed for New Orleans to play against a Sun Belt opponent, either Florida International or Troy, both of which are currently 6-5. Playing a bowl against a 6-6, surging BYU team on its way to independence, closer to home, with double the payout, is a much better prospect for them. They will get more fans out, generate more enthusiasm, and get more money out of the deal. Everyone is better off!
UTEP officially accepted an invitation to play BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. This could only happen if the WAC gave the thumbs up to give up a bowl slot. I believe this means that the Las Vegas Bowl (probably with some help from ESPN) made this happen. I believe that Boise State or Nevada will go to the Vegas Bowl and play Utah. shifting all WAC bowls up (except Hawaii which accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl). Really, it's a win-win for all parties.
Win for New Mexico Bowl
The New Mexico Bowl gets UTEP, which is just a 3.5-hour drive from Albuquerque. That is a much better prospect for the Bowl than Fresno State, which typically travels well, but it doesn't have real ties to New Mexico. It will boost attendance and local interest for the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP and BYU are also old rivals from the WAC, not to mention this is the 25th anniversary of the season that UTEP upset 6-1, 7th in the country, defending National Champion BYU, ending all hopes of a repeat.
Win for the WAC
Both Nevada and Boise State's bowl prospects improve. The "best" WAC bowl game would have been against a 7-5 ACC team. The "second" best WAC bowl game would have been against an 8-4 MAC team. Then Fresno State would have played a 6-6 BYU team in New Mexico. Now, Boise State will get to play a 10-2 ranked team in Vegas. Nevada will get that 7-5 ACC team, and all indications are that Boston College will be nabbed for that game. Fresno State will get to move into that game with an 8-4 MAC team. It makes each team's destination becomes a higher profile game (with the potential exception of Fresno State, just because a 6-6 BYU is still a higher profile team than any 8-4 MAC team is going to be). It gives Boise State or Nevada a chance to play a ranked team in a bowl game that will have a lot of hype and build-up to it.
Win for BYU (Theoretically)
For BYU, they get an easier opponent to beat in 6-6 UTEP. Though this game will be much more like a road game, which may be even better preparation for next season than playing a better opponent. BYU played plenty of quality opponents, I think it would probably be better to have a confidence-building bowl game instead.
Win for UTEP
The UTEP Miners were likely headed for New Orleans to play against a Sun Belt opponent, either Florida International or Troy, both of which are currently 6-5. Playing a bowl against a 6-6, surging BYU team on its way to independence, closer to home, with double the payout, is a much better prospect for them. They will get more fans out, generate more enthusiasm, and get more money out of the deal. Everyone is better off!
Thursday, December 2, 2010
This Is Not Your Typical BYU Basketball Team
This BYU basketball team is different than any BYU basketball team in recent memory. BYU basketball teams usually lose the type of game they had last night at Creighton. It was a quality opponent, on the road, in a mostly packed arena (over 15k fans), and they kept making runs at BYU. I kept waiting for that run that eventually put Creighton over the top and BYU behind the 8-ball. But every time Creighton made a run and tied the game up (I believe they did this 3 or 4 times in the game's last 25 minutes), BYU had an answer. It came from Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, Kyle Collinsworth, and, of course, Jimmer Fredette. There were a lot of confident players. Everybody got in on the action (at least of the 7 guys who played). That is the blessing and the curse of this BYU basketball team.
The Curse of Confidence
Of the 2 or 3 games I've watched, and the 3 or 4 others that I've listened to, one thing is clear about this team: all of them feel they can shoot. A typical trademark of a Dave Rose team is passing up a good shot for a better shot. From what I surmise to this point: they take the first decent look they get. Everybody feels they can take their man off the dribble. Everyone feels they can drain that quasi-open three-pointer. They go through stretches, some longer than others, of offensive ineptitude as a result. It turns each night into a game of runs, much like last night's game at Creighton, the Utah State game, and South Florida as well. It also leads to a lower team shooting percentage, which has been very obvious in several games, even against Mississippi Valley State.
The Blessing of Confidence
In a tight game on the road, it does not have to be Jimmer stepping up. Jackson can hit an open three. Davies can post up. Collinsworth and Abouo can drive. Jimmer can still do what Jimmer does, but he doesn't have to. And in cases where the opponents "monster" up on Jimmer, it leaves those guys open and in position to make plays too. It also leads to more points, because guys are taking quicker shots, meaning they take more shots. Their confidence in their defense is also high, so guys crash the offensive boards harder. They take more free throws because everybody is confidently taking the ball to the basket. BYU scores more points, even with a lower percentage.
One thing I know: every BYU basketball team I have watched in my life would probably be 5-2 right now. This BYU team is 7-0, with 8 more winnable non-conference games. This is not your typical BYU Basketball team!
Catch these atypical Cougars on BYU-TV or online at BYUTV.org (you must set up a login prior to viewing, don't worry, it's simple and very non-invasive, no TSA pat-down required) this Saturday, December 4th, against Hawaii at 4pm MT! The audio is also available on ksl.com, where the Voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell, calls a great game as well.
The Curse of Confidence
Of the 2 or 3 games I've watched, and the 3 or 4 others that I've listened to, one thing is clear about this team: all of them feel they can shoot. A typical trademark of a Dave Rose team is passing up a good shot for a better shot. From what I surmise to this point: they take the first decent look they get. Everybody feels they can take their man off the dribble. Everyone feels they can drain that quasi-open three-pointer. They go through stretches, some longer than others, of offensive ineptitude as a result. It turns each night into a game of runs, much like last night's game at Creighton, the Utah State game, and South Florida as well. It also leads to a lower team shooting percentage, which has been very obvious in several games, even against Mississippi Valley State.
The Blessing of Confidence
In a tight game on the road, it does not have to be Jimmer stepping up. Jackson can hit an open three. Davies can post up. Collinsworth and Abouo can drive. Jimmer can still do what Jimmer does, but he doesn't have to. And in cases where the opponents "monster" up on Jimmer, it leaves those guys open and in position to make plays too. It also leads to more points, because guys are taking quicker shots, meaning they take more shots. Their confidence in their defense is also high, so guys crash the offensive boards harder. They take more free throws because everybody is confidently taking the ball to the basket. BYU scores more points, even with a lower percentage.
One thing I know: every BYU basketball team I have watched in my life would probably be 5-2 right now. This BYU team is 7-0, with 8 more winnable non-conference games. This is not your typical BYU Basketball team!
Catch these atypical Cougars on BYU-TV or online at BYUTV.org (you must set up a login prior to viewing, don't worry, it's simple and very non-invasive, no TSA pat-down required) this Saturday, December 4th, against Hawaii at 4pm MT! The audio is also available on ksl.com, where the Voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell, calls a great game as well.
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