What the MWC Media/Coaches are probably going to say:
1. TCU
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. UNLV
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
So let's look at the likelihood of teams ending up like that, followed by what I think actually happens:
TCU
Why they will win the conference: they are returning pretty much the entire offense from the most dynamic offensive MWC team from 2009. Their defense loses a few key guys and one of their returning starters at LB is uncertain for the early part of the year. But they were by far the best defense in 2009, and for the better part of the past decade they have always had a great defense. If their offense is clicking too, they are nearly unstoppable.
Why they won't win the conference: the last time TCU came in as the defending MWC champ and super-hyped, potential BCS buster (2006), they busted. BYU dominated them in Fort Worth on the Horned Frogs' way to a 6-6 record. They seem to relish the underdog role: see what happened to them in Provo last year vs. what they did at the Fiesta Bowl. There is some uncertainty on D, losing two key DBs and both starting LBs (Tank Carden will likely be unavailable the early part of the season), so things must gel quickly for their aggressive, hit you in the mouth, and ride you all the way down the field mentality on defense. Also, they have to play at Utah, which has become a tougher and tougher place to play each year during the K-Whit era. TCU also has the unfortunate disadvantage of playing 3 games at altitudes more than 3,000 feet higher than Fort Worth.
Utah
Why they will finish 2nd or higher: they always have a good D, same as TCU, so having to replace a few key guys shouldn't be a huge issue. They sometimes struggle on offense. They are returning a lot of firepower at RB with Asiata and Wide (and Shakerin, if you count him, but I don't anticipate he'll see much action, since he was only the "wild Ute" RB after Asiata got hurt) and with Wynn coming back at QB. They also get TCU and BYU at home.
Why they will finish 3rd or lower: that D that has always been good has never seen the type of turnover the past two years have dealt it. Two years ago, they lost 3 playmakers. Last year, they lost the other 3. A non-BCS school can't deal with the loss of 6 defensive playmakers in 2 years: not with recruiting classes perennially in the 40's and 50's. They have a tough non-conference slate (Pitt, at Iowa State, at Notre Dame) which does a couple of things: exposes your weaknesses, increases your chances of injury, and puts a wear and tear on young men's bodies. Their 3 toughest conference games are all in the final month of the season. The game at Air Force just before hosting TCU could be a look-ahead game if the Utes and Frogs are both undefeated and in the top 10. They follow that up at ND then at SDSU, before the rivalry game against BYU. That's a very physical month for any team.
BYU
Longer preview to come later this week
Air Force
Why they'll finish in the top half of the conference: they are the ultimate model of consistency in the MWC (besides BYU). They have finished in the top half of the conference each of the past three years. Most of their toughest conference games are at home. They are probably the team that TCU seems to struggle with the most (though in both MWC home games against Air Force, TCU has blown them out). They bring back the core of a group that played surprisingly down the stretch last year, culminating in a blowout win over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Why they'll finish in the bottom half of the conference: they usually have had a tendency fade down the stretch, and their schedule the first month doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they can make up for that a hot start. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them start 1-3 on the season (Northwestern State, BYU, at Oklahoma, at Wyoming), 0-2 in MWC play, and that's before playing TCU and Utah.
Wyoming
Why they can break into the top half of the conference: finished the season on a good note for the first time in years. They bring back a decent offensive unit. This year, they made some changes on D that should make for an improvement on that side of the ball. Typically, the D carries the O, but last year it was the opposite. If they can get on the same page this year, watch out. Plus, all they really have to do to bust in to the top half is beat Air Force out. They get them early in the year, at home, and, with a win, could create the separation they need to bust into the top 4. They also gave Utah a run for their money last year, and they'll get them at home this year.
Why they falter and drop back to the also-rans of the MWC: last year, the conference was really weak after the top 4, somebody had to move up. This year, the bottom half will be improved, and Wyoming won't be able to or receive a bowl bid kind of by default. The switch to the 4-3 could blow up in their face. Austyn Carta-Samuels could have a sophomore slump and the O wouldn't probably recover from that. Both of those are possibilities.
UNLV
Why this year is finally their year: they brought in a proven winner, with Bobby Hauck. He will instill discipline and a team-first mentality. They have some beef on the lines, coupled with some speed on the outside. They have shown they can play with some of the bigger boys, they just haven't been able to pull of wins in those games.
Why it's the same story, different year, different coach: coach Hauck might not be able to handle some of the prima donna attitudes of his more talented players. He never experienced that at Montana! His emphasis on discipline may lead to division among the team between those who buy in and those who don't. They have to travel to Utah in week two, a week after playing Big Ten physicality in Wisconsin. They also have a difficult stretch of 4 games that could doom their season: at West Virginia, at CSU, TCU, at BYU.
SDSU
Why you can believe Coach Hoke has these boys headed in the right direction: they could start the season 3-1, which would be a huge confidence boost. They nearly made a bowl game last year and this year's schedule looks a lot easier. They had a much more consistent offense last year than they have had in recent memory. They have always relied on the big play, but they were able to have a few solid, long drives from time to time. If they can beef up a bit on the line, they might actually have a decent squad. The running game needs a feature back, or at least one of the two main backs being a little more of a playmaker (Walter Kazee and Brandon Sullivan combined for only THREE carries over 20 yards: some of the better RBs in the MWC had multiple games where they had 3 carries over 20 yards!).
Why they will finish where they always finish, in a fight for last place: they are very young. There is virtually no senior leadership. None of the players on the team have experienced a .500 record in Division I football! I know it's cliche, but they are probably a year away [from being able to win 8 games]. They have little to no home-field advantage (Utah State, Utah, Air Force, even UNLV...). All of their road games are played at altitude (NMSU, UNM, BYU, Wyoming) and/or against very good opponents (Missouri, BYU, TCU).
CSU
Why they might return to their 2008 form in 2010: they have a couple of really solid RBs. That's about all I got for them this next year. It's going to be a rough one.
Why the 9-game collapse from last year carries over into this year, and beyond: 5 home games. 5 games at home. 2 of those are BYU and TCU. The other 3 are losable games as well: Idaho, UNLV, and New Mexico. They are breaking in a new QB, a mostly new OL, and have to replace 2 of the most productive WRs in their program's history. They aren't even a year away.
New Mexico
Why they'll win more than one game this year: this is also a tough one, perhaps not quite as tough as CSU though! They have 5 winnable games (at UNLV, UTEP, SDSU, at NMSU, at CSU), they should be able to pull out 2 of them, maybe. The good news is they play all 5 in a row, so they could even get on a winning streak (it's been 3 years since they had one of those). There isn't a big off-the-field controversy to distract players. Yet.
Why they won't: at Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah, and that's just the first three games of the season. The last 3 don't look much better: at Air Force, at BYU, TCU. They are losing a 4-year starter at QB (granted he had a horrible senior year, but still). They did get a big hog-molly for their defensive front, perhaps the biggest "get" for a non-BCS team on signing day, but one man won't improve one of the worst defenses from last year west of the Mississippi, which includes some pretty pathetic teams.
How I actually see it:
The past few years, the top 3 have segregated themselves from the pack. They have been closely followed by Air Force, who has been closely followed by the 5th best team. So the real questions would seem to be who is going to rise to be the 5th team and what order will the top 3 be in. I disagree. I think the top 4, yes, including Air Force, will dominate the bottom 5 so badly, that there may not be a 5th team that rises to the middle of the pack. I think this year, Air Force can not only break into the top three, but maybe even slide into the 2nd spot. They will need a win over either BYU or Utah, but they may not even need both to get to 2nd place. They have 2 difficult 2-game stretches (BYU, then at Oklahoma; @TCU, then hosting Utah), but the rest of the schedule are winnable games. The most likely teams, I think, to rise to 5th are UNLV and SDSU. UNLV gets Utah early in the year which could be a curse or a blessing. Curse: they will be healthy still on O. Blessing: Utah has got to get some stuff figured out on D, and they might not have it taken care of after just one game. SDSU could take some lumps early with a trip to BYU before hosting Air Force, and then take them again late, playing at TCU then hosting Utah in November. But that stretch in between could give them 3 straight conference wins, including two on the road. I would count Wyoming out merely based on confidence level: they have to play Air Force, @ TCU, Utah, and @ BYU their first 4 conference games. They might get one of those, but it's tough to imagine them getting 2 or 3 and going into the easy half of the schedule with any confidence. I believe the standings might look like this:
1. TCU
2. Air Force
3. Utah
4. BYU
5. UNLV
6. Wyoming
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
So really, I think the MWC will undervalue Air Force and overvalue Wyoming. I'm probably wrong. It's still early: no way to tell how things shake out with injuries or star RBs withdrawing from school or anything of the sort. But it's still fun to talk about. If I were a betting man, I'd go all-in on the following: TCU winning the crown, Utah finishing in the top 3, and CSU and New Mexico finishing in the bottom 3. Of course, my all-in at this point in life would be about $2, so it isn't that big of a risk anyway!
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
BYU basketball season in review and preview
This was definitely a landmark season for BYU basketball. Most wins in school history. Ranked for 12 straight weeks, including in the final poll of the season. NCAA Tournament win for the first time in 17 years. Had an All-American for the first time in 22 years, not counting Lee Cummard's 4th team Foxsports.com All America Team last year (I'm not counting it as pretty much nobody else is).
They accomplished a lot: more than any other BYU team in the last 25 years. There are only 2 or 3 BYU teams ever to have the kind of success BYU did this year. But they still left a lot on the table. They lost at home. Didn't win the conference title. Lost to UNLV in the MWC Tournament again. Missed a chance to play in the Sweet 16 in Salt Lake City.
They got a great start out of Tyler Haws, a great finish out of Michael Loyd, and several memorable performances throughout by Jimmer Fredette. There were some very bright spots. There were some pretty low points. There were some incredible victories. There were some bitter losses. They found a way to win in the NCAA tournament, in double OT. They found a way to let a SINGLE player eliminate them from the NCAA tournament. Again.
So here's what they lose:
Chris Miles: solid, big-bodied defensive center. Didn't score much. Not a particularly great rebounder. But he got his hands on a lot of balls and the guy he was boxing out never got the rebound. His size was a great asset to the team. Offensively, his 4.5 points per game won't really be missed. By the end of the season, he wasn't getting but 10-15 minutes a game anyways.
Jonathan Tavernari: the occasionally hot, but sometimes very not, PF. He combined his thick body with quickness and was a great post defender. He was versatile enough to play the 3 on rare occasions. He could keep you in a game with his shooting, or he could put you out of reach with his poor shot selection. I think his senior year was a bit of a waste. He was a mental case a lot of the time and didn't have his head in the game. The one thing he always did really well was eat up minutes. That will be missed because there isn't another 3/4 combo that can do that.
Lamont Morgan Jr: team captain and back-up to Jimmer at PG. He was injured the last 10 games of the season, so, in a way, BYU has already moved on from him.
Tyler Haws: slashing SG/SF with a mid-range game and money from the charity stripe. His shot was crucial to the early 14-1 non-conference stretch. However, he hit a wall with his shot about mid-January. He found ways to score driving to the hoop and at the free throw line but he was 0 for February outside of 8-10 feet. He missed a few games with injury and had some foul trouble throughout the season. BYU should be able to absorb his absence for his mission fairly well.
Who is coming in:
Kyle Collinsworth: Utah's Mr. Everything. He was everything this year in Utah High School hoops that Tyler Haws was last year, but with a little more size and length. He's 6'6", 200 lbs. Supposedly his outside shot is a little better as well. He may not start as Haws did as a freshman, but that would only be because Charles Abouo has improved and will get the starting nod.
Anson Winder: PG out of Las Vegas. He is supposedly really quick. He isn't the most highly rated player and he's unlikely to see much time with Jimmer and Michael Loyd sitting ahead of him in the depth chart. I would be shocked if he played more than James Anderson does next year.
Chris Collinsworth: former Mr. Everything in Utah. Played PF as a freshman before his mission. He was stabbed while in Australia, but has fully recovered. His conditioning will be a big question mark, though. His jump shot was not even a question mark (more like an emphatic no with 3 !!! after it) before and I don't anticipate that it improved after two years Down Under. He is, however, a solid rebounder and potential shot-blocker. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, but also showed flashes of coordination issues. He should have grown into his body a bit. Again, his conditioning will be crucial. With James Anderson as the backup center, Collinsworth will need to provide solid minutes so Noah Hartsock can 1) get a breather and 2) play center some so Coach Rose can keep James Anderson on the bench where he belongs. With his size, he might be able to play a little C as well.
Nick Martineau: PG, played some as a freshman prior to his mission. Bad place to be on the depth chart for next year's team. My guess is that he'll redshirt next year.
Concern for next year's squad:
Depth in the post. Tavernari, for all the negatives he brought with him on the court, will be sorely missed. His 24 minutes a game allowed Noah Hartsock to sit on the bench and play some C (roughly 8-9 minutes per game) when Miles and Davies got in foul trouble or couldn't match up with the opposing big man (which seemed like most games). They add Collinsworth, which should help that somewhat. But they are losing 40 minutes of C/PF play in Miles and Tavernari. Davies can play another 5-10 minutes a game and Anderson improved enough to where he could play 8-10 minutes a game without putting the game in jeopardy. When Davies is in foul trouble is where the issue is HUGE.
How to fix it:
Davies puts on 10 pounds. Collinsworth gets in really good shape, really fast, and maintains it the entire year. Also, they have one scholarship available, if they can get a Division I-ready Junior College PF/C who isn't already committed elsewhere. Anyone want to guess how many of those are just sitting around waiting for BYU to offer them a scholarship?
What the team looks like:
The top 7 or 8 on next year's team could be much more talented than this year's top 7 or 8 (it's after that where the problems lie). The starting 5 should be better. Consider:
Jimmer without mono, strep, gonorrhea, or whatever other ailments he had last year, with Michael Loyd backing him up. Better at the PG spot.
Jackson Emery with the confidence to hit a fadeaway 3 with 1 minute left in the NCAA Tournament, and always a 1st-team MWC defender. As good, or hopefully improved, at the 2 spot.
Abouo with another year of experience under his belt and Collinsworth bringing his length and basketball IQ to the 3 spot. That two-headed monster should be as good or better than the combo of shorter/smaller Haws and less-experienced Abouo.
Hartsock another year older, more confident in his offensive abilities, and more adept at playing other post players, with Collinsworth, a much bigger defender than JT was, backing him up. Improved at the PF spot down low, but with zero threat of outside shooting.
Davies should be much more consistent as a sophomore offensively. He has a knack for getting in foul trouble, though, but with 10 pounds and a lecture on not flopping on D, he should be better there. He could become a shot blocker if he worked at it, he's so long. Either way, offensively and athletically, vast improvement at C.
I don't anticipate Zylstra, Magnusson, or Anderson to play particularly large roles on the team next year, though Magnusson could certainly play a few quality minutes a game and Anderson can buy you a possession or two without screwing up (provided the opposing team isn't paying attention that he entered the game for that period of time).
Reason they will win the MWC: home court advantage.
Reason they won't win the MWC: road woes, particularly New Mexico and UNLV. The inability to handle 40 minutes of full-court pressure. Also, I believe UNLV and SDSU will be improved and New Mexico will be nearly as good. Really, everybody in the conference should be better next year, excluding Utah and TCU who lose a lot of players (in Utah's case, literally half of the team has graduated or transferred).
Actual outlook: if the Collinsworth brothers contribute next year and if Davies and Hartsock up their combined scoring to about 20 points/game (right about 12 PPG this season), there is no reason they won't win or finish second in the MWC. However, things could easily not come together and they could finish as low as 4th. I think with the leadership of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where they don't finish 2nd or higher.
SDSU and UNLV always lose a game or two they shouldn't, you can bank on that every year (this year: at Wyoming for SDSU and two losses to Utah for UNLV). New Mexico, who won the conference by one game (a 2-point win at BYU when Jimmer didn't play much because of illness), caught a lot of breaks this year that they might not get next year, especially having to face an improved MWC without Ramon Martinez. No matter how the rest of it plays out, I think BYU could contend for a conference championship. They are certainly not the frontrunner, and definitely shouldn't be. But any of the top 4 could make a push for the title, so why couldn't BYU come out on top? I think they likely end up 2nd, probably behind SDSU, but that's just me, a long time ahead of the season without knowing how the schedules look or what injuries might occur or which freshmen will make immediate impacts.
They accomplished a lot: more than any other BYU team in the last 25 years. There are only 2 or 3 BYU teams ever to have the kind of success BYU did this year. But they still left a lot on the table. They lost at home. Didn't win the conference title. Lost to UNLV in the MWC Tournament again. Missed a chance to play in the Sweet 16 in Salt Lake City.
They got a great start out of Tyler Haws, a great finish out of Michael Loyd, and several memorable performances throughout by Jimmer Fredette. There were some very bright spots. There were some pretty low points. There were some incredible victories. There were some bitter losses. They found a way to win in the NCAA tournament, in double OT. They found a way to let a SINGLE player eliminate them from the NCAA tournament. Again.
So here's what they lose:
Chris Miles: solid, big-bodied defensive center. Didn't score much. Not a particularly great rebounder. But he got his hands on a lot of balls and the guy he was boxing out never got the rebound. His size was a great asset to the team. Offensively, his 4.5 points per game won't really be missed. By the end of the season, he wasn't getting but 10-15 minutes a game anyways.
Jonathan Tavernari: the occasionally hot, but sometimes very not, PF. He combined his thick body with quickness and was a great post defender. He was versatile enough to play the 3 on rare occasions. He could keep you in a game with his shooting, or he could put you out of reach with his poor shot selection. I think his senior year was a bit of a waste. He was a mental case a lot of the time and didn't have his head in the game. The one thing he always did really well was eat up minutes. That will be missed because there isn't another 3/4 combo that can do that.
Lamont Morgan Jr: team captain and back-up to Jimmer at PG. He was injured the last 10 games of the season, so, in a way, BYU has already moved on from him.
Tyler Haws: slashing SG/SF with a mid-range game and money from the charity stripe. His shot was crucial to the early 14-1 non-conference stretch. However, he hit a wall with his shot about mid-January. He found ways to score driving to the hoop and at the free throw line but he was 0 for February outside of 8-10 feet. He missed a few games with injury and had some foul trouble throughout the season. BYU should be able to absorb his absence for his mission fairly well.
Who is coming in:
Kyle Collinsworth: Utah's Mr. Everything. He was everything this year in Utah High School hoops that Tyler Haws was last year, but with a little more size and length. He's 6'6", 200 lbs. Supposedly his outside shot is a little better as well. He may not start as Haws did as a freshman, but that would only be because Charles Abouo has improved and will get the starting nod.
Anson Winder: PG out of Las Vegas. He is supposedly really quick. He isn't the most highly rated player and he's unlikely to see much time with Jimmer and Michael Loyd sitting ahead of him in the depth chart. I would be shocked if he played more than James Anderson does next year.
Chris Collinsworth: former Mr. Everything in Utah. Played PF as a freshman before his mission. He was stabbed while in Australia, but has fully recovered. His conditioning will be a big question mark, though. His jump shot was not even a question mark (more like an emphatic no with 3 !!! after it) before and I don't anticipate that it improved after two years Down Under. He is, however, a solid rebounder and potential shot-blocker. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, but also showed flashes of coordination issues. He should have grown into his body a bit. Again, his conditioning will be crucial. With James Anderson as the backup center, Collinsworth will need to provide solid minutes so Noah Hartsock can 1) get a breather and 2) play center some so Coach Rose can keep James Anderson on the bench where he belongs. With his size, he might be able to play a little C as well.
Nick Martineau: PG, played some as a freshman prior to his mission. Bad place to be on the depth chart for next year's team. My guess is that he'll redshirt next year.
Concern for next year's squad:
Depth in the post. Tavernari, for all the negatives he brought with him on the court, will be sorely missed. His 24 minutes a game allowed Noah Hartsock to sit on the bench and play some C (roughly 8-9 minutes per game) when Miles and Davies got in foul trouble or couldn't match up with the opposing big man (which seemed like most games). They add Collinsworth, which should help that somewhat. But they are losing 40 minutes of C/PF play in Miles and Tavernari. Davies can play another 5-10 minutes a game and Anderson improved enough to where he could play 8-10 minutes a game without putting the game in jeopardy. When Davies is in foul trouble is where the issue is HUGE.
How to fix it:
Davies puts on 10 pounds. Collinsworth gets in really good shape, really fast, and maintains it the entire year. Also, they have one scholarship available, if they can get a Division I-ready Junior College PF/C who isn't already committed elsewhere. Anyone want to guess how many of those are just sitting around waiting for BYU to offer them a scholarship?
What the team looks like:
The top 7 or 8 on next year's team could be much more talented than this year's top 7 or 8 (it's after that where the problems lie). The starting 5 should be better. Consider:
Jimmer without mono, strep, gonorrhea, or whatever other ailments he had last year, with Michael Loyd backing him up. Better at the PG spot.
Jackson Emery with the confidence to hit a fadeaway 3 with 1 minute left in the NCAA Tournament, and always a 1st-team MWC defender. As good, or hopefully improved, at the 2 spot.
Abouo with another year of experience under his belt and Collinsworth bringing his length and basketball IQ to the 3 spot. That two-headed monster should be as good or better than the combo of shorter/smaller Haws and less-experienced Abouo.
Hartsock another year older, more confident in his offensive abilities, and more adept at playing other post players, with Collinsworth, a much bigger defender than JT was, backing him up. Improved at the PF spot down low, but with zero threat of outside shooting.
Davies should be much more consistent as a sophomore offensively. He has a knack for getting in foul trouble, though, but with 10 pounds and a lecture on not flopping on D, he should be better there. He could become a shot blocker if he worked at it, he's so long. Either way, offensively and athletically, vast improvement at C.
I don't anticipate Zylstra, Magnusson, or Anderson to play particularly large roles on the team next year, though Magnusson could certainly play a few quality minutes a game and Anderson can buy you a possession or two without screwing up (provided the opposing team isn't paying attention that he entered the game for that period of time).
Reason they will win the MWC: home court advantage.
Reason they won't win the MWC: road woes, particularly New Mexico and UNLV. The inability to handle 40 minutes of full-court pressure. Also, I believe UNLV and SDSU will be improved and New Mexico will be nearly as good. Really, everybody in the conference should be better next year, excluding Utah and TCU who lose a lot of players (in Utah's case, literally half of the team has graduated or transferred).
Actual outlook: if the Collinsworth brothers contribute next year and if Davies and Hartsock up their combined scoring to about 20 points/game (right about 12 PPG this season), there is no reason they won't win or finish second in the MWC. However, things could easily not come together and they could finish as low as 4th. I think with the leadership of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where they don't finish 2nd or higher.
SDSU and UNLV always lose a game or two they shouldn't, you can bank on that every year (this year: at Wyoming for SDSU and two losses to Utah for UNLV). New Mexico, who won the conference by one game (a 2-point win at BYU when Jimmer didn't play much because of illness), caught a lot of breaks this year that they might not get next year, especially having to face an improved MWC without Ramon Martinez. No matter how the rest of it plays out, I think BYU could contend for a conference championship. They are certainly not the frontrunner, and definitely shouldn't be. But any of the top 4 could make a push for the title, so why couldn't BYU come out on top? I think they likely end up 2nd, probably behind SDSU, but that's just me, a long time ahead of the season without knowing how the schedules look or what injuries might occur or which freshmen will make immediate impacts.
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