Georgia Tech Rushing Attack
Georgia Tech has a great rushing attack. BYU gave up nearly 300 rushing yards last week against Notre Dame. That's the key matchup, obviously. BYU's experienced, deep defensive line doesn't exist anymore. Two senior starters went down to season-ending injuries earlier this year. It showed against Notre Dame. Georgia Tech has some great running backs and an experienced QB leading the tricky triple option offense. The DL just has to be disciplined, something that will prove difficult for the younger players that will see the field. Bronson Kaufusi is going to be a great one over the next three years, Ziggy is an NFL talent, but defending the option isn't necessarily about talent, it's about being assignment-sound.
BYU Mindset
More important to me, from a BYU perspective, is how they respond this week. Make no mistake, last week was BYU's BCS game. They poured their heart and soul in the game at South Bend. And lost. Do they have the mental fortitude to pull it together? Based on what I've seen from them: it's a mixed bag. The mental strength they displayed in stretches against Utah, Boise State, Oregon State, and Notre Dame was overshadowed by the mental collapses (well, and the physical collapse against Notre Dame) in those games. So, does the front 7 (and really the front 8 with Daniel Sorensen) play well enough against the run that the DBs can afford to stay home on the pass?
Second Half Woes...
BYU has started quickly in most games this seasons, performing extremely well in the first half of games, outscoring opponents by 69 points in 8 games this season. The second half has been where the struggles have come, especially in games against Utah, Oregon State, and Notre Dame, where they have been outscored 55-24. Georgia Tech hasn't fared much better. The last time they "won the second half" was over a month ago, being outscored in the 2nd half in four consecutive games, going 1-3 in those contests.
Road Woes...
The other factor: BYU is 0-3 on the road, losing by a total of 7 points. They have played well enough to win any of those 3 games. But they have not been able to get over the hump and actually pull one of those out. They need to have a lead at half or there is no expectation they can outplay any competent team, especially on the road, in the second half.
Not gonna happen. Georgia Tech 27, BYU 21
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Thursday Thoughts, 10/24/2012
Good news for BYU fans:
Basketball season is just around the corner.
Now, let's talk football. BYU fans are left with a similar bad taste in their mouth again this season. BYU has lost multiple games where it could easily be argued that they were the better team. Again. Some years, it's argued that the inability of the D to get a crucial 3rd down stop or a big play given up by the D cost them games in which they outplayed their opponent. This year, the blame rests mostly on a non-throwing QB and a young and learning offensive coordinator. And Bronco because he went for two...but seriously, BYU outplayed Utah for most of the game, other than a 2-minute stretch in the 3rd quarter. BYU's D was absolutely dominant against Boise State but Riley Nelson held the O back for 2.5 quarters and it took Taysom Hill too long to get acclimated to game speed. Oregon State, well, I'm not going to go there. That's a good team. BYU was not the better team that day or any day, yet, they still had a chance to win. BYU played well against ND until the 4th quarter really, and even then, they were one errant throw away from winning that game.
BUT...Utah is clearly not good, and BYU still lost to them. Boise State is certainly in rebuilding mode and BYU lost to them. Notre Dame (and the entire nation) is about to get a reality check about how "good" the Irish really are. [Hint, they are not a top 5 team.] And BYU lost to them too after controlling play for 45 minutes. A great team wins 2 of those games, if not all three. A truly good team pulls one of them out. So, BYU, which isn't any worse than any of the teams they lost to, isn't good either. Where does BYU go from here? Nowhere. They go 7-5 and play in the Poinsettia Bowl where they'll get an MWC team itching to get some revenge on the Cougars for leaving them high and dry...BYU clearly has good enough talent to compete, so what is the issue? This season, well, there was no playmaker to go out and get it done in the 4th quarter when it needed to get done. Not at QB, not at FS, not at RB. Is that coaching or the honor code and its recruiting restrictions? Meh...I'm too tired to get into that debate!
Basketball Expectations
I had very high expectations coming into August for BYU's hoopsters. Now they have lost two significant contributors for their careers, with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers "retiring" due to injury. (BYU will also need to get out and recruit more players for next year's team as Coach Rose clearly had plans, roster spots, and scholarships for the two guys.)
This is still a very good team, no doubt. But even very good teams will struggle in February and March without depth. I have no worries that the top 7 will be about as good as any of their opponents' top 7. But the dropoff at 8, 9, and 10 is too big. With that said, BYU is very guard-oriented with a great, but foul-prone, big man. That could be a recipe for a few wins in the NCAA Tournament. The question is: can they have the February they need to get invited? One injury or one "big" in foul trouble can put them behind the 8-ball in a lot of games.
We shall see what the future holds for BYU hoops, but I think they'll start strong before a late January and February swoon. It's just a numbers game, and they are stacked against the Cougars this season. 12-3 is about as bad as I think the Cougars do in the non-conference schedule, and I could see a lot of scenarios where they do even better than that. I have no idea what to expect in conference play though, but I think it's probably closer to 10-6 than it is to 13-3. Make no mistake, those injuries will loom large as BYU otherwise was positioned quite well in the WCC. I think they even had a chance for a serious run in the NCAA's. Now, any serious run would have to come in the NIT, and even that's a stretch if they don't get a high seed and home games.
So what do BYU fans really have to look forward to at this point (since I've played the role of Debbie Downer tonight)? Well, November will be a good month for both BYU teams. A much better month than it will be for Utah, that's for dang sure...
Basketball season is just around the corner.
Now, let's talk football. BYU fans are left with a similar bad taste in their mouth again this season. BYU has lost multiple games where it could easily be argued that they were the better team. Again. Some years, it's argued that the inability of the D to get a crucial 3rd down stop or a big play given up by the D cost them games in which they outplayed their opponent. This year, the blame rests mostly on a non-throwing QB and a young and learning offensive coordinator. And Bronco because he went for two...but seriously, BYU outplayed Utah for most of the game, other than a 2-minute stretch in the 3rd quarter. BYU's D was absolutely dominant against Boise State but Riley Nelson held the O back for 2.5 quarters and it took Taysom Hill too long to get acclimated to game speed. Oregon State, well, I'm not going to go there. That's a good team. BYU was not the better team that day or any day, yet, they still had a chance to win. BYU played well against ND until the 4th quarter really, and even then, they were one errant throw away from winning that game.
BUT...Utah is clearly not good, and BYU still lost to them. Boise State is certainly in rebuilding mode and BYU lost to them. Notre Dame (and the entire nation) is about to get a reality check about how "good" the Irish really are. [Hint, they are not a top 5 team.] And BYU lost to them too after controlling play for 45 minutes. A great team wins 2 of those games, if not all three. A truly good team pulls one of them out. So, BYU, which isn't any worse than any of the teams they lost to, isn't good either. Where does BYU go from here? Nowhere. They go 7-5 and play in the Poinsettia Bowl where they'll get an MWC team itching to get some revenge on the Cougars for leaving them high and dry...BYU clearly has good enough talent to compete, so what is the issue? This season, well, there was no playmaker to go out and get it done in the 4th quarter when it needed to get done. Not at QB, not at FS, not at RB. Is that coaching or the honor code and its recruiting restrictions? Meh...I'm too tired to get into that debate!
Basketball Expectations
I had very high expectations coming into August for BYU's hoopsters. Now they have lost two significant contributors for their careers, with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers "retiring" due to injury. (BYU will also need to get out and recruit more players for next year's team as Coach Rose clearly had plans, roster spots, and scholarships for the two guys.)
This is still a very good team, no doubt. But even very good teams will struggle in February and March without depth. I have no worries that the top 7 will be about as good as any of their opponents' top 7. But the dropoff at 8, 9, and 10 is too big. With that said, BYU is very guard-oriented with a great, but foul-prone, big man. That could be a recipe for a few wins in the NCAA Tournament. The question is: can they have the February they need to get invited? One injury or one "big" in foul trouble can put them behind the 8-ball in a lot of games.
We shall see what the future holds for BYU hoops, but I think they'll start strong before a late January and February swoon. It's just a numbers game, and they are stacked against the Cougars this season. 12-3 is about as bad as I think the Cougars do in the non-conference schedule, and I could see a lot of scenarios where they do even better than that. I have no idea what to expect in conference play though, but I think it's probably closer to 10-6 than it is to 13-3. Make no mistake, those injuries will loom large as BYU otherwise was positioned quite well in the WCC. I think they even had a chance for a serious run in the NCAA's. Now, any serious run would have to come in the NIT, and even that's a stretch if they don't get a high seed and home games.
So what do BYU fans really have to look forward to at this point (since I've played the role of Debbie Downer tonight)? Well, November will be a good month for both BYU teams. A much better month than it will be for Utah, that's for dang sure...
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Mo in the News...
http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/football/mormon-athletes-students-blending-in-well-at-notre-dame/article_752b7780-1a82-11e2-b7dc-001a4bcf887a.html
This was in the Provo Daily Herald today. The newspaper edition had a picture of my family in it as well...there's obviously a lot I could write about the BYU-ND game but I'll have to wait until I can feel my legs. I'm getting too old for the student section (especially when I go to EVERY pre-game activity)! They gave it all they had, but, in the end, they played like BYU does in big games: well enough to blow it in the end.
This was in the Provo Daily Herald today. The newspaper edition had a picture of my family in it as well...there's obviously a lot I could write about the BYU-ND game but I'll have to wait until I can feel my legs. I'm getting too old for the student section (especially when I go to EVERY pre-game activity)! They gave it all they had, but, in the end, they played like BYU does in big games: well enough to blow it in the end.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Photos of the Heaths at ND
Here are a few photos of my family and I around ND campus, along with a few others...
We Played Like Champions This Day!
Purdue Game
Gameday Bus!
Walking home from school: bagpipe concert!
Grandma and Izzy in front of ND Stadium
Just before kickoff
Prediction: BYU at ND 10/20/2012
Let me just start off by stating my position, BYU has no chance to win this game. BYU only wins this game if Notre Dame loses it. With that said, it's not outside of the realm of possibilities for ND to lose it...
Notre Dame's D
I believe ND could probably take three knees and punt (or kick FGs depending on field position) and win this game. Their front 7 will absolutely dominate BYU's OL. There will be no running attack. ND can get to Riley Nelson in the passing game without even blitzing. Stanford's OL, significantly bigger and better than BYU's, never really got established. Stepfan Taylor made some individual plays, but he had no holes to go through. Josh Nunes didn't look comfortable all night. He didn't get sacked much, but he was dancing around more than he's used to, and it showed. Michigan's OL couldn't handle ND's front 7 in the running game, though they had a lot more success protecting Denard in the passing game (but again, ND didn't blitz and got 4 picks off Denard in the game, and 5 total INTs).
BYU's Rushing O
There is no reason to believe that BYU can block Notre Dame's THREE (athletic, fast, strong) 300-lbs-er upfront. It'll take all 5 guys just to keep those guys out of the backfield. That's not even counting blocking Manti or Prince Shembo (or anyone else on the D). BYU has no chance to establish a running game. 2 yards/carry might be a stretch, and realistically I think BYU will rush for less than 30 yards. ND's front 7 will absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage and stuff the run completely. And there is nothing BYU can do about it.
BYU's Passing O
Where ND can be vulnerable is in the precision passing game. Unfortunately for BYU fans, that does not describe the offense Riley Nelson runs. Even if it was, Riley isn't going to have time to throw the ball. He will have to make plays with his legs to get anything done. But I'm guessing that Manti Te'o is going to keep an eye on Riley. If ND drops 7 in coverage to cover BYU's 3 WRs, there isn't going to be many openings. And Riley, who is turnover-prone to say the least, will have more than a few if he tries to force things against this defense.
BYU's Overall O
Given that BYU won't be able to run against ND and knowing Riley's struggles throwing the ball, I think BYU's O will struggle to score. 200 yards total offense and 2 scores is my cap. One drive over 40 yards, that's it. Three and outs: most possessions probably fit in here.
BYU's D
This group got shredded by a precision passing attack led by a guy in his first collegiate start. Lucky for BYU, ND's passing game is pretty awful as it's led by Redshirt Freshman Everett Golson. BYU's ability to hold it's ground in the running game will be key. I generally have confidence in BYU's chances there, but I'm only cautiously optimistic going into this game. BYU hasn't seen a group of Offensive Linemen like ND's. Still, I think BYU's D is up for the challenge of playing on this stage, in this venue. Certainly, the D will be motivated after last week.
ND's Rushing O
Notre Dame has 3 very good RBs and a big, brusing OL. However, Brian Kelly hasn't really committed to the running game, other than the second half against Miami where he ran it like 30 consecutive plays. Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, and George Atkinson III will all get drafted (though GAIII is a sophomore and isn't there yet). The OL all tip the scales at 300+. That makes them a little less athletic, and BYU's LBs may prove difficult to block for them.
ND's Passing O
This has been hit and miss most of the season, though mostly miss with Everett Golson. He is young and turnover-prone. He moves well outside of the pocket, but ND rarely moves him out of it intentionally. Instead, they keep him in the pocket to try to develop him. He runs on his own several times a game, which occasionally leads to great plays but more often than not turns into a negative play. The WRs are above average but not great, with that said, any one of them is capable of a 100-yard day against BYU. TE Tyler Eifert is uncoverable, but Golson doesn't target him. If ND is struggling offensively (which it has more often than not this season), Brian Kelly has no qualms about bringing in Tommy Rees to sling the ball around. He has come in to relieve Golson in three separate games and thrown the ball around to the tune of 3 games won (that otherwise would have been lost). It's a nice ace in the hole for the Irish.
ND's Overall O
If Golson isn't careful against a very hungry BYU D, he is going to put this game in doubt. There is no reason that ND can't just play it safe and win the field position and turnover battles and eventually bury BYU in a sea of Riley Nelson's mistakes and OL missed blocks. But Golson doesn't know how to play that game yet. If he were out b/c of his injury, I'd say Rees would lead ND to 30+ points and game over by HT, but I don't believe Golson can get more than 20 points out of the offense without aid from his defense.
Prediction
ND's defense not only stifles BYU, but forces 3 or more turnovers. ND's O will screw up and allow the game to stay closer than it should be. But ultimately, ND won't lose this game. I already said BYU can't win on their own without help...even if they get the help from Golson early on, Rees is always waiting in the wings, ready to lead the Irish to victory. I have no idea how BYU's O will score other than maybe a hurry-up possession or two. In fact, I think BYU's O will score more for ND than they will for themselves, an all-too-familiar theme these days. I have no idea how the special teams will set BYU up with good field position. To me, BYU's only chance is pitching an absolute gem, including 2-3 turnovers, on the defensive side of the ball. The one thing that BYU has going for it: for Notre Dame, this is just one of the games they have to win to make the big games on their schedule matter. For BYU, this is it: the last chance they have to do something "special" this year.
Notre Dame 24, BYU 6
Notre Dame's D
I believe ND could probably take three knees and punt (or kick FGs depending on field position) and win this game. Their front 7 will absolutely dominate BYU's OL. There will be no running attack. ND can get to Riley Nelson in the passing game without even blitzing. Stanford's OL, significantly bigger and better than BYU's, never really got established. Stepfan Taylor made some individual plays, but he had no holes to go through. Josh Nunes didn't look comfortable all night. He didn't get sacked much, but he was dancing around more than he's used to, and it showed. Michigan's OL couldn't handle ND's front 7 in the running game, though they had a lot more success protecting Denard in the passing game (but again, ND didn't blitz and got 4 picks off Denard in the game, and 5 total INTs).
BYU's Rushing O
There is no reason to believe that BYU can block Notre Dame's THREE (athletic, fast, strong) 300-lbs-er upfront. It'll take all 5 guys just to keep those guys out of the backfield. That's not even counting blocking Manti or Prince Shembo (or anyone else on the D). BYU has no chance to establish a running game. 2 yards/carry might be a stretch, and realistically I think BYU will rush for less than 30 yards. ND's front 7 will absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage and stuff the run completely. And there is nothing BYU can do about it.
BYU's Passing O
Where ND can be vulnerable is in the precision passing game. Unfortunately for BYU fans, that does not describe the offense Riley Nelson runs. Even if it was, Riley isn't going to have time to throw the ball. He will have to make plays with his legs to get anything done. But I'm guessing that Manti Te'o is going to keep an eye on Riley. If ND drops 7 in coverage to cover BYU's 3 WRs, there isn't going to be many openings. And Riley, who is turnover-prone to say the least, will have more than a few if he tries to force things against this defense.
BYU's Overall O
Given that BYU won't be able to run against ND and knowing Riley's struggles throwing the ball, I think BYU's O will struggle to score. 200 yards total offense and 2 scores is my cap. One drive over 40 yards, that's it. Three and outs: most possessions probably fit in here.
BYU's D
This group got shredded by a precision passing attack led by a guy in his first collegiate start. Lucky for BYU, ND's passing game is pretty awful as it's led by Redshirt Freshman Everett Golson. BYU's ability to hold it's ground in the running game will be key. I generally have confidence in BYU's chances there, but I'm only cautiously optimistic going into this game. BYU hasn't seen a group of Offensive Linemen like ND's. Still, I think BYU's D is up for the challenge of playing on this stage, in this venue. Certainly, the D will be motivated after last week.
ND's Rushing O
Notre Dame has 3 very good RBs and a big, brusing OL. However, Brian Kelly hasn't really committed to the running game, other than the second half against Miami where he ran it like 30 consecutive plays. Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, and George Atkinson III will all get drafted (though GAIII is a sophomore and isn't there yet). The OL all tip the scales at 300+. That makes them a little less athletic, and BYU's LBs may prove difficult to block for them.
ND's Passing O
This has been hit and miss most of the season, though mostly miss with Everett Golson. He is young and turnover-prone. He moves well outside of the pocket, but ND rarely moves him out of it intentionally. Instead, they keep him in the pocket to try to develop him. He runs on his own several times a game, which occasionally leads to great plays but more often than not turns into a negative play. The WRs are above average but not great, with that said, any one of them is capable of a 100-yard day against BYU. TE Tyler Eifert is uncoverable, but Golson doesn't target him. If ND is struggling offensively (which it has more often than not this season), Brian Kelly has no qualms about bringing in Tommy Rees to sling the ball around. He has come in to relieve Golson in three separate games and thrown the ball around to the tune of 3 games won (that otherwise would have been lost). It's a nice ace in the hole for the Irish.
ND's Overall O
If Golson isn't careful against a very hungry BYU D, he is going to put this game in doubt. There is no reason that ND can't just play it safe and win the field position and turnover battles and eventually bury BYU in a sea of Riley Nelson's mistakes and OL missed blocks. But Golson doesn't know how to play that game yet. If he were out b/c of his injury, I'd say Rees would lead ND to 30+ points and game over by HT, but I don't believe Golson can get more than 20 points out of the offense without aid from his defense.
Prediction
ND's defense not only stifles BYU, but forces 3 or more turnovers. ND's O will screw up and allow the game to stay closer than it should be. But ultimately, ND won't lose this game. I already said BYU can't win on their own without help...even if they get the help from Golson early on, Rees is always waiting in the wings, ready to lead the Irish to victory. I have no idea how BYU's O will score other than maybe a hurry-up possession or two. In fact, I think BYU's O will score more for ND than they will for themselves, an all-too-familiar theme these days. I have no idea how the special teams will set BYU up with good field position. To me, BYU's only chance is pitching an absolute gem, including 2-3 turnovers, on the defensive side of the ball. The one thing that BYU has going for it: for Notre Dame, this is just one of the games they have to win to make the big games on their schedule matter. For BYU, this is it: the last chance they have to do something "special" this year.
Notre Dame 24, BYU 6
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
At 4-3, What I Think of BYU in 2012
Offense
Brandon Doman is clearly a young Offensive Coordinator. Through 20 games, he has yet to really establish an offensive identity. He's gone throw-heavy, run-heavy, balanced, but yet to find anything that works, or that he's willing to stick with consistently. Part of that has been his personnel: he has great WRs but not a guy who can throw to them. He has a lot of "potential" RBs, but not an OL to block for them.
Doman will improve, but BYU will lose games in the process over the next season and a half. In addition to improving as an OC, however, he needs to groom his players to continue improving. He needs to figure out what to do with his O-Line. Last year, he thought they were unathletic and big, so he had them lose weight, only to find out that the "increased" athleticism didn't help and replaced some of the skinnier guys with bigger, heavier ones. He needs to pick a direction and go with it. Part of that is losing the identity of the offense: he wanted to get the run game going with the leaner OL but he NEVER pulls any of them to take advantage of their improved speed.
Riley Nelson clearly cost the team this season. His lack of an arm was the difference in several games. His injury was unfortunate, but by playing through fractured vertebrae made it nearly impossible for BYU to win against Utah and Boise State. The OL has been entirely ineffective. Cody Hoffman has a myriad of drops. Michael Alisa didn't look as physical as he did last year. I think it's safe to say the TEs are the only part of the BYU O that is exceeding expectations this season, or at least my expectations.
The Offense is below average. It was below average last year. Doman needs to get a grip on this. Fast. Identity is the first step. He needs one.
Defense
This is still clearly one of the better BYU defenses I've seen. 2006 and 1996 are the only two I have personally seen that are equivalent. However, it's still a BYU defense. Oregon State was the first team with any proficiency in the passing game and it's the first team to really expose BYU's perpetual weakness: the secondary. Clearly, however, the talent level on the D is at an all-time high. There is some depth too, so there is hope for this unit going forward to next year, even losing 4 or 5 guy significant contributors (including Kyle Van Noy, b/c I think there's little chance he sticks around for one more season).
Here, I see Bronco misevaluating some personnel as well, though he has the identity thing down (it's easier on defense, but still). Ziggy was learning the game last season still, that's fine. But his freakish athleticism could have made up for some of his shortcomings and he should have had a lot more experience coming into this season. Perhaps that experience could have allowed him to make one or two more plays against Utah or Boise State and potentially changed the outcome??? Bronson Kaufusi is another one they have brought along slowly, but at least he's still a freshman and BYU can utilize his unique skillset a few more years.
BYU has only faced one good offense this season and gave up 42 points (or 35). They don't face many more good offenses, so the D should retain its standing as a top 20, or even top 10, defense. I suspect they can rein in ND's O to some degree, but unfortunately the BYU O can continue to give up field position and turnovers and it may not matter.
Special Teams
Bronco clearly ignored the FG unit in fall camp and it's been obvious in both kicking and blocking. Every other unit has been doing fine, though occasionally they give up a decent return. That happens.
Overall
Bronco and the players clearly over-rated themselves coming into the season. The offense, even with a healthy Nelson, has left a lot to be desired. The defense has performed extremely well but the competition hasn't been difficult. It's still a decent team overall, but nothing to write home about. Next season, especially if Hoffman and KVN leave early, the team is going to be worse than this year. Let's just say BYU goes 8-4 in 2012 (though I think at this point 7-5 is also likely with three tough road games left, ND, GT, and SJSU, yes, SJSU), with a worse team and a tougher schedule next year...yikes. BYU might join Utah in the good teams of the past struggling to make a bowl game. Still, BYU can compete with ND this week b/c of ND's offensive ineptness, and could win the rest of the games on the schedule b/c none of those teams is unbeatable (sporting good defenses AND good offenses).
I think the state of Utah is about to become even more irrelevant in the national landscape of college football. Utah and BYU are down this year, and next year looks like an even tougher road for both. Utah State will always be irrelevant, unless they manage to beat BYU and Utah in the same year, win the WAC (or MWC next year), and get a big win against a BCS team. They are well-coached for sure, but how long will that last? People are already starting to take notice of what Gary Andersen has done in Logan.
BYU fans can look forward to the schedule in 2013, but the results won't be pretty. The missionary age change will almost certainly have a negative impact on BYU the next two seasons, but Bronco should be able to get a handle on things after that. Unfortunately, I think 2015 is the next year BYU can get back to pushing for 10 wins again. I think there's some shuffling to happen in 2013 on both sides of the ball. 2014 should be a good offensive year for BYU but the D will not have the experience it needs yet with so many key players being juniors and seniors this season.
So in answer to the "what I think of BYU" question: I think it's a good program that is experiencing some growing pains as an independent. I think it will continue a few more years. I think, long-term, BYU will be OK. The short-term, however, is a different story. Doman has a long way to go. The personnel is improving though. By 2015, BYU turns a corner, I just hope it's not "too late" by then.
Brandon Doman is clearly a young Offensive Coordinator. Through 20 games, he has yet to really establish an offensive identity. He's gone throw-heavy, run-heavy, balanced, but yet to find anything that works, or that he's willing to stick with consistently. Part of that has been his personnel: he has great WRs but not a guy who can throw to them. He has a lot of "potential" RBs, but not an OL to block for them.
Doman will improve, but BYU will lose games in the process over the next season and a half. In addition to improving as an OC, however, he needs to groom his players to continue improving. He needs to figure out what to do with his O-Line. Last year, he thought they were unathletic and big, so he had them lose weight, only to find out that the "increased" athleticism didn't help and replaced some of the skinnier guys with bigger, heavier ones. He needs to pick a direction and go with it. Part of that is losing the identity of the offense: he wanted to get the run game going with the leaner OL but he NEVER pulls any of them to take advantage of their improved speed.
Riley Nelson clearly cost the team this season. His lack of an arm was the difference in several games. His injury was unfortunate, but by playing through fractured vertebrae made it nearly impossible for BYU to win against Utah and Boise State. The OL has been entirely ineffective. Cody Hoffman has a myriad of drops. Michael Alisa didn't look as physical as he did last year. I think it's safe to say the TEs are the only part of the BYU O that is exceeding expectations this season, or at least my expectations.
The Offense is below average. It was below average last year. Doman needs to get a grip on this. Fast. Identity is the first step. He needs one.
Defense
This is still clearly one of the better BYU defenses I've seen. 2006 and 1996 are the only two I have personally seen that are equivalent. However, it's still a BYU defense. Oregon State was the first team with any proficiency in the passing game and it's the first team to really expose BYU's perpetual weakness: the secondary. Clearly, however, the talent level on the D is at an all-time high. There is some depth too, so there is hope for this unit going forward to next year, even losing 4 or 5 guy significant contributors (including Kyle Van Noy, b/c I think there's little chance he sticks around for one more season).
Here, I see Bronco misevaluating some personnel as well, though he has the identity thing down (it's easier on defense, but still). Ziggy was learning the game last season still, that's fine. But his freakish athleticism could have made up for some of his shortcomings and he should have had a lot more experience coming into this season. Perhaps that experience could have allowed him to make one or two more plays against Utah or Boise State and potentially changed the outcome??? Bronson Kaufusi is another one they have brought along slowly, but at least he's still a freshman and BYU can utilize his unique skillset a few more years.
BYU has only faced one good offense this season and gave up 42 points (or 35). They don't face many more good offenses, so the D should retain its standing as a top 20, or even top 10, defense. I suspect they can rein in ND's O to some degree, but unfortunately the BYU O can continue to give up field position and turnovers and it may not matter.
Special Teams
Bronco clearly ignored the FG unit in fall camp and it's been obvious in both kicking and blocking. Every other unit has been doing fine, though occasionally they give up a decent return. That happens.
Overall
Bronco and the players clearly over-rated themselves coming into the season. The offense, even with a healthy Nelson, has left a lot to be desired. The defense has performed extremely well but the competition hasn't been difficult. It's still a decent team overall, but nothing to write home about. Next season, especially if Hoffman and KVN leave early, the team is going to be worse than this year. Let's just say BYU goes 8-4 in 2012 (though I think at this point 7-5 is also likely with three tough road games left, ND, GT, and SJSU, yes, SJSU), with a worse team and a tougher schedule next year...yikes. BYU might join Utah in the good teams of the past struggling to make a bowl game. Still, BYU can compete with ND this week b/c of ND's offensive ineptness, and could win the rest of the games on the schedule b/c none of those teams is unbeatable (sporting good defenses AND good offenses).
I think the state of Utah is about to become even more irrelevant in the national landscape of college football. Utah and BYU are down this year, and next year looks like an even tougher road for both. Utah State will always be irrelevant, unless they manage to beat BYU and Utah in the same year, win the WAC (or MWC next year), and get a big win against a BCS team. They are well-coached for sure, but how long will that last? People are already starting to take notice of what Gary Andersen has done in Logan.
BYU fans can look forward to the schedule in 2013, but the results won't be pretty. The missionary age change will almost certainly have a negative impact on BYU the next two seasons, but Bronco should be able to get a handle on things after that. Unfortunately, I think 2015 is the next year BYU can get back to pushing for 10 wins again. I think there's some shuffling to happen in 2013 on both sides of the ball. 2014 should be a good offensive year for BYU but the D will not have the experience it needs yet with so many key players being juniors and seniors this season.
So in answer to the "what I think of BYU" question: I think it's a good program that is experiencing some growing pains as an independent. I think it will continue a few more years. I think, long-term, BYU will be OK. The short-term, however, is a different story. Doman has a long way to go. The personnel is improving though. By 2015, BYU turns a corner, I just hope it's not "too late" by then.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Oregon State at BYU Prediction, 10/13/2012
This is the least bad offense BYU's D will have faced all season long. In fact, it's almost borderline good. At least through the air. This will test the secondary in a way they haven't really been all season. Washington State was a pass-heavy attack, but didn't have the rhythm or the offensive line to be efficient against BYU. Oregon State does, even with the backup QB.
Defensively, the Beaver front 7 will do everything it can to make Riley Nelson a throwing QB. They will shut down the run. They will keep Riley contained. BYU has had struggles on O and this D is on par with, and potentially even better than, the ones that have stopped BYU in the past few games (Utah, Boise State, and Utah State). How much of a difference will a healthy Riley Nelson make? Not enough, I fear.
I think the BYU offense COULD potentially have a bit of a breakout game, but, at the same time, I don't trust Riley and the young RBs to take care of the ball. 3 turnovers and BYU loses. 0-1 turnovers and BYU could potentially win by double digits. So I'll go ahead and predict 2 turnovers and a very tightly contested football game.
Oregon State 20, BYU 17.
Defensively, the Beaver front 7 will do everything it can to make Riley Nelson a throwing QB. They will shut down the run. They will keep Riley contained. BYU has had struggles on O and this D is on par with, and potentially even better than, the ones that have stopped BYU in the past few games (Utah, Boise State, and Utah State). How much of a difference will a healthy Riley Nelson make? Not enough, I fear.
I think the BYU offense COULD potentially have a bit of a breakout game, but, at the same time, I don't trust Riley and the young RBs to take care of the ball. 3 turnovers and BYU loses. 0-1 turnovers and BYU could potentially win by double digits. So I'll go ahead and predict 2 turnovers and a very tightly contested football game.
Oregon State 20, BYU 17.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
BYU D vs. Oregon State O
With Sean Mannion getting hurt, it's tough to imagine Coach Riley will put too much on the shoulders of new QB Cody Vaz. However, Oregon State has not had success running the football. BYU's front 7 isn't the top of front where the Beavers can hope to get that going. I think there will be a lot of screens and quick passes, mixed in with a couple of deep shots. They have to get the ball out of his hand quickly to slow down the BYU pass rush. But if the DBs creep up as well b/c of the short passes, that can render the strategy ineffective. If Vaz can successfully work in a couple of deep shots, that gives the DBs some pause about moving up. That would be my gameplan with a young QB against this BYU defense.
The BYU D doesn't have to change a thing. The front 7 needs to continue to control the 5 yards on each side of the line of scrimmage. The DBs have done well for the most part. They struggle where most secondaries struggle: the intermediate routes. I don't foresee Oregon State attacking those areas consistently. It takes more time and protection. They won't risk Cody Vaz.
This matchup is good for BYU. I suspect BYU can hold Oregon State to around 300 yards. The success of BYU's scoring D will depend more on BYU's O than it will on Oregon State's O...I would be shocked if Oregon State had more than 2 scoring DRIVES. So it's up to BYU's O and special teams to not give Oregon State field position. The D will take care of its business.
The BYU D doesn't have to change a thing. The front 7 needs to continue to control the 5 yards on each side of the line of scrimmage. The DBs have done well for the most part. They struggle where most secondaries struggle: the intermediate routes. I don't foresee Oregon State attacking those areas consistently. It takes more time and protection. They won't risk Cody Vaz.
This matchup is good for BYU. I suspect BYU can hold Oregon State to around 300 yards. The success of BYU's scoring D will depend more on BYU's O than it will on Oregon State's O...I would be shocked if Oregon State had more than 2 scoring DRIVES. So it's up to BYU's O and special teams to not give Oregon State field position. The D will take care of its business.
Oregon State D vs. BYU O
Oregon State D vs. BYU O
Well, BYU's offense has struggled mightily for some time now. Riley Nelson returns and is supposedly healthy. In the one game he played where he was healthy, BYU scored 30 points. Granted, it was against a team that gives up an average of over 30 points/game, but still, it was one of BYU's better offensive performances in terms of yards. So, there is hope. Riley spreads the ball around less than pretty much every QB at BYU in the last 35 years, which is unfortunate because Oregon State is pretty bad in the secondary. Spreading it around to more people exploits that weakness.
Oregon State has a very good run D, mixed with an atrociously bad pass defense. Dynamic and balanced offenses can move the ball and score on them (UCLA and Arizona). The one run-heavy offense the Beavers played struggled against (Wisconsin). The offense with no real identity and a pathetic offensive line struggled (Washington State). BYU's O looks a lot more like the latter one than the former three.
The biggest problem for BYU in the running game has been trying to block opponents' Defensive Ends. Oregon State has a few that are big, strong, and fast. That presents a problem if BYU tries to run outside. They effectively take away the option (thankfully). I believe BYU will have to lead with a FB or run to the TE side or a combination of both. That means BYU has to be predictable in the running game in order to have success. They simply cannot block Scott Crichton one-on-one. If they double him, that's one less blocker to send to the second level to stop the Beavers active linebackers. What I'm really saying is that I don't think BYU will have success running the ball. Ironically, the one area I think BYU could be successful this week is in the QB Draw...Jamaal Williams may make some individual plays, but I don't expect the blocking to open up holes for him.
BYU can get the ball to the backs out of the backfield as an extension of the running game. They can hit the TEs across the middle. Those two things will result in positive plays. Cody Hoffman will be covered by All Pac 12 CB Jordan Poyer. Riley cannot stare him down. That is a recipe for disaster. He will throw 3 picks if he throws to Hoffman 10 times. Use Apo and Falslev. Use the TEs. Use jailbreak WR screens (bubble screens won't get the job done), hit the TE and RB on screens as well. BYU must mix it up in the passing game to be successful, especially because there is no real threat of a running game on Saturday.
I don't like the matchup at all for BYU. I like it more than I like the matchup next week against Notre Dame, but that doesn't mean much. Now, I do believe BYU's O can mount at least 4 scoring drives in this game (if Doman comes in with the right kind of game plan). The real question is going to be: how much does Oregon State score b/c of BYU's offense?
Well, BYU's offense has struggled mightily for some time now. Riley Nelson returns and is supposedly healthy. In the one game he played where he was healthy, BYU scored 30 points. Granted, it was against a team that gives up an average of over 30 points/game, but still, it was one of BYU's better offensive performances in terms of yards. So, there is hope. Riley spreads the ball around less than pretty much every QB at BYU in the last 35 years, which is unfortunate because Oregon State is pretty bad in the secondary. Spreading it around to more people exploits that weakness.
Oregon State has a very good run D, mixed with an atrociously bad pass defense. Dynamic and balanced offenses can move the ball and score on them (UCLA and Arizona). The one run-heavy offense the Beavers played struggled against (Wisconsin). The offense with no real identity and a pathetic offensive line struggled (Washington State). BYU's O looks a lot more like the latter one than the former three.
The biggest problem for BYU in the running game has been trying to block opponents' Defensive Ends. Oregon State has a few that are big, strong, and fast. That presents a problem if BYU tries to run outside. They effectively take away the option (thankfully). I believe BYU will have to lead with a FB or run to the TE side or a combination of both. That means BYU has to be predictable in the running game in order to have success. They simply cannot block Scott Crichton one-on-one. If they double him, that's one less blocker to send to the second level to stop the Beavers active linebackers. What I'm really saying is that I don't think BYU will have success running the ball. Ironically, the one area I think BYU could be successful this week is in the QB Draw...Jamaal Williams may make some individual plays, but I don't expect the blocking to open up holes for him.
BYU can get the ball to the backs out of the backfield as an extension of the running game. They can hit the TEs across the middle. Those two things will result in positive plays. Cody Hoffman will be covered by All Pac 12 CB Jordan Poyer. Riley cannot stare him down. That is a recipe for disaster. He will throw 3 picks if he throws to Hoffman 10 times. Use Apo and Falslev. Use the TEs. Use jailbreak WR screens (bubble screens won't get the job done), hit the TE and RB on screens as well. BYU must mix it up in the passing game to be successful, especially because there is no real threat of a running game on Saturday.
I don't like the matchup at all for BYU. I like it more than I like the matchup next week against Notre Dame, but that doesn't mean much. Now, I do believe BYU's O can mount at least 4 scoring drives in this game (if Doman comes in with the right kind of game plan). The real question is going to be: how much does Oregon State score b/c of BYU's offense?
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Wednesday Waffle, 10/10/2012
Today my waffling is simple: with College Gameday rolling into South Bend this weekend, do I garb up in BYU stuff or rock my Notre Dame gear? What would your BYU-affiliated sign say if you were in my shoes?
Monday, October 8, 2012
Tuesday Tidbits, 10/9/2012
BYU D by the Numbers
So, about that defense.
Washington State in 5 other games: 379 yards. Against BYU: 224.
Utah in 4 other games: 313. Against BYU: 245.
Boise State in 4 other games: 407.25. Against BYU: 261.
Hawaii in 4 other games: 333.5. Against BYU: 149.
Utah State in 5 other games: 454.6. Against BYU: 243.
BYU has held its opponents to roughly 40% fewer yards than their season averages (67% fewer rushing yards than season average and 30% fewer passing yards). Oregon State comes into this game averaging 459.5 yards/game. Based on these numbers, we would expect them to get around 280 yards against BYU, 240 through the air, 40 on the ground. [However, their starting QB just went out for the season in Oregon State's last game against Washington State, so who knows what the Beavers will show in Saturday's game. Though I'm guessing a steady dose of trying to run the football is part of their new formula...]
Perhaps the more impressive part about BYU's D is that it has done this with minimal help from the offense. BYU scored 6 points against Boise State and Utah State. Through 3 quarters at Utah, the O had scored 7 points (not counting the 7 they scored for Utah...oh, and the other 7 they scored for Boise State). They left a lot of points on the board against Washington State.
Punt Me
BYU D is keeping the team afloat through their ability to get off the field. Here is a count on the number of three and outs the D has forced each game:
Wazzou: 3 in 10 possessions
Weber State: 8 in 15 possessions
Utah: 5 in 13 possessions
Boise State: 5 in 13 possessions
Hawaii: 7 in 14 possessions
Utah State: 4 in 11 possessions
32 out of 76 possessions (42%) have resulted in a three and out, a turnover on downs or a turnover without attaining a 1st down. When the O can't get going, the D gives them as many possessions as possible.
So, about that defense.
Washington State in 5 other games: 379 yards. Against BYU: 224.
Utah in 4 other games: 313. Against BYU: 245.
Boise State in 4 other games: 407.25. Against BYU: 261.
Hawaii in 4 other games: 333.5. Against BYU: 149.
Utah State in 5 other games: 454.6. Against BYU: 243.
BYU has held its opponents to roughly 40% fewer yards than their season averages (67% fewer rushing yards than season average and 30% fewer passing yards). Oregon State comes into this game averaging 459.5 yards/game. Based on these numbers, we would expect them to get around 280 yards against BYU, 240 through the air, 40 on the ground. [However, their starting QB just went out for the season in Oregon State's last game against Washington State, so who knows what the Beavers will show in Saturday's game. Though I'm guessing a steady dose of trying to run the football is part of their new formula...]
Perhaps the more impressive part about BYU's D is that it has done this with minimal help from the offense. BYU scored 6 points against Boise State and Utah State. Through 3 quarters at Utah, the O had scored 7 points (not counting the 7 they scored for Utah...oh, and the other 7 they scored for Boise State). They left a lot of points on the board against Washington State.
Punt Me
BYU D is keeping the team afloat through their ability to get off the field. Here is a count on the number of three and outs the D has forced each game:
Wazzou: 3 in 10 possessions
Weber State: 8 in 15 possessions
Utah: 5 in 13 possessions
Boise State: 5 in 13 possessions
Hawaii: 7 in 14 possessions
Utah State: 4 in 11 possessions
32 out of 76 possessions (42%) have resulted in a three and out, a turnover on downs or a turnover without attaining a 1st down. When the O can't get going, the D gives them as many possessions as possible.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Sunday Night Musings, 10/7/2012
Taysom Hill
It's really a shame to lose Hill for the year on a play that didn't need to be called. I'm not going to question THAT play call. Bronco clearly made a mistake not catching the fact that they weren't in victory formation until it was too late. What I will question is the fact that, after losing Nelson to injury at some point during three consecutive seasons, Doman called 60 plays in Friday night's game that could have resulted in Hill getting hit. Yes, 60 plays that put Taysom Hill in the crosshairs. It was that 60th play that turned out to be the one that cost BYU. It was a fluke. It wasn't the toll of a long game of many hits. It just happened. But when the OC calls 80% of the plays as passes, QB designed runs, or option running plays, opening a QB up to 60 potential hits, it just magnifies the chance of there being that ONE hit which does him in. Shame FOR Hill; shame ON Doman.
What makes mobile QBs great is not the designed running plays for them. It's how they use their mobility to improve their PASSING. Doman doesn't operate under that mindset: he believes it's all about calling 4-5 QB draws each quarter to get them in space (only the frequency with which he calls the draw automatically reduces the "space" they get to play in). If he doesn't change that approach, BYU fans will find out how good James Lark is. Soon.
Missionary Age Change
Plenty has been made of this over the weekend. I'll be honest, my second thought after hearing the age announcement was the positive impact it will have on BYU's football program. For a few of you that I talked to, it was your first thought. My wife says we're a bunch of losers. Clearly, I think this is a good thing for the program. Bronco rarely plays freshmen anyway, so it gives them a chance to not have to waste a season before their mission with a redshirt or minimal playing time. They can use the redshirt immediately following their mission and have 4 good seasons after that. I could talk more about this, but I'd rather open up the comments section and hear your thoughts.
My second thought is, at least initially, it will reduce the number of married players on the team. One, they will be a year younger when they return from their missions. Two, the pool of ladies with "sweet spirits" and similarly sweet looks/bodies will be smaller, at least among the population from age 19-20.5. Also, with a huge influx of young women serving missions, I think it opens up the recruiting base for BYU. Much like Tennessee sending cheerleaders out to high school football games to recruit...ok, a little different. But it couldn't hurt to have some of the ladies that used to get married at 20 b/c they were everyone's first choice out in the field serving and spreading the good news of BYU football, I mean, the gospel...
BYU in the Polls
I'm a little surprised BYU didn't garner a single vote in either of the polls at 4-2. Their losses at Utah and Boise State were well-documented. BYU is 4 points and two plays away from 6-0. Granted, Utah's lack of success hasn't helped BYU's cause since then. The schedule, in spite of Utah's unexpected struggles, is shaping up to be tougher than I thought it would be. Oregon State is looking very solid (though I believe they're a little over-rated right now for what they have actually accomplished thus far this season) and could potentially give Oregon a run for their money in the Pac 12. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that Notre Dame makes a BCS game. San Jose State and Utah State look more than capable of finishing 1-2 in the WAC (or at least 2-3 behind a good Louisiana Tech team). Boise State probably will win the MWC.
Georgia Tech is struggling more than most people, including myself, thought. Hawaii, Idaho, and New Mexico State are having the types of bad seasons most expected. Washington State has been semi-competitive, but still awful, in most cases. All in all, though, it will be a good enough schedule for a 9-3 BYU team to be in the running for the 20th spot in the BCS rankings. Of course, that implies BYU wins either against Oregon State or at Notre Dame. The schedule isn't good enough (nor would I consider BYU good enough) to be ranked at all at 8-4...
It's really a shame to lose Hill for the year on a play that didn't need to be called. I'm not going to question THAT play call. Bronco clearly made a mistake not catching the fact that they weren't in victory formation until it was too late. What I will question is the fact that, after losing Nelson to injury at some point during three consecutive seasons, Doman called 60 plays in Friday night's game that could have resulted in Hill getting hit. Yes, 60 plays that put Taysom Hill in the crosshairs. It was that 60th play that turned out to be the one that cost BYU. It was a fluke. It wasn't the toll of a long game of many hits. It just happened. But when the OC calls 80% of the plays as passes, QB designed runs, or option running plays, opening a QB up to 60 potential hits, it just magnifies the chance of there being that ONE hit which does him in. Shame FOR Hill; shame ON Doman.
What makes mobile QBs great is not the designed running plays for them. It's how they use their mobility to improve their PASSING. Doman doesn't operate under that mindset: he believes it's all about calling 4-5 QB draws each quarter to get them in space (only the frequency with which he calls the draw automatically reduces the "space" they get to play in). If he doesn't change that approach, BYU fans will find out how good James Lark is. Soon.
Missionary Age Change
Plenty has been made of this over the weekend. I'll be honest, my second thought after hearing the age announcement was the positive impact it will have on BYU's football program. For a few of you that I talked to, it was your first thought. My wife says we're a bunch of losers. Clearly, I think this is a good thing for the program. Bronco rarely plays freshmen anyway, so it gives them a chance to not have to waste a season before their mission with a redshirt or minimal playing time. They can use the redshirt immediately following their mission and have 4 good seasons after that. I could talk more about this, but I'd rather open up the comments section and hear your thoughts.
My second thought is, at least initially, it will reduce the number of married players on the team. One, they will be a year younger when they return from their missions. Two, the pool of ladies with "sweet spirits" and similarly sweet looks/bodies will be smaller, at least among the population from age 19-20.5. Also, with a huge influx of young women serving missions, I think it opens up the recruiting base for BYU. Much like Tennessee sending cheerleaders out to high school football games to recruit...ok, a little different. But it couldn't hurt to have some of the ladies that used to get married at 20 b/c they were everyone's first choice out in the field serving and spreading the good news of BYU football, I mean, the gospel...
BYU in the Polls
I'm a little surprised BYU didn't garner a single vote in either of the polls at 4-2. Their losses at Utah and Boise State were well-documented. BYU is 4 points and two plays away from 6-0. Granted, Utah's lack of success hasn't helped BYU's cause since then. The schedule, in spite of Utah's unexpected struggles, is shaping up to be tougher than I thought it would be. Oregon State is looking very solid (though I believe they're a little over-rated right now for what they have actually accomplished thus far this season) and could potentially give Oregon a run for their money in the Pac 12. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that Notre Dame makes a BCS game. San Jose State and Utah State look more than capable of finishing 1-2 in the WAC (or at least 2-3 behind a good Louisiana Tech team). Boise State probably will win the MWC.
Georgia Tech is struggling more than most people, including myself, thought. Hawaii, Idaho, and New Mexico State are having the types of bad seasons most expected. Washington State has been semi-competitive, but still awful, in most cases. All in all, though, it will be a good enough schedule for a 9-3 BYU team to be in the running for the 20th spot in the BCS rankings. Of course, that implies BYU wins either against Oregon State or at Notre Dame. The schedule isn't good enough (nor would I consider BYU good enough) to be ranked at all at 8-4...
Saturday, October 6, 2012
USU-BYU Recap
Zzz...sorry. I just woke up...
BYU needs to figure out how to kick field goals. They need to figure out how to block on kicks. They need to figure out how to put it through the uprights. Suddenly, the 10 kicks they did in fall camp is looking like too few. Who knew? There are going to be games where it matters (like Utah). This was ALMOST one of those games.
BYU fans will look at this game and outcome and not like the direction of the team. But, as bad as it was (and in the heat of the moment, I forget this as well), there were some good things tonight. Hill completed passes to 7 different guys, completing 66.67% of his passes for 234 yards and a TD (and a pick). The offensive line continues to underperform, but BYU is also shuffling guys in and out there right now. I believe in 6 games this season, BYU has had 5 different starting line-ups. Lasike isn't ready for the big time, but, he needs to get a few carries here and there still. Just not on 4th down and 1 or 3rd and 2 in the 1st quarter. And let's be honest: I am just happy the offense's only scores gave BYU points...after Boise State and Utah, that's a feat!
The D held another opponent to under 300 yards. They held Keeton to under 10 yards per completion and 57% completion percentage (was 68% on the season coming in). Kerwynn Williams averaged 1.2 yards/carry, with a long of 7. Utah State's longest play of the game was 16 yards. This was an O that had at least one 50-yard play in 3 of their 5 games and had two or more plays over 30 yards in the other two. BYU stopped the big play offense from having ANY big plays.
BYU is 4-2, which is exactly where an above average TEAM would be at this juncture. I just cannot accept the fact that this D is so awesome but this O is so bad. It reminds me of one of Crowton's years where BYU lost a game 13-10 and Brady Poppinga said: our O scored 10 points, we shouldn't lose a game where they get to double digits. That's how BYU is this year. If they score 10, you have to feel like BYU has a chance!
The last 3 games, the D gave up 3 points. Against Utah, the D did not allow a TD drive of over 40 yards, meaning the points the "D" gave up were really on the O and special teams! Weber State didn't score until it was mostly backups playing. Washington State only managed 2 FGs. And this is with limited to no offensive production, excluding the Hawaii game.
Utah State averaged 3 yards/play: that means they AVERAGED a 3 and out. They came into the game averaging 450 yards and 28 points a game. 3 points. 2 turnovers. 25 minutes of possession, even with the BYU offense not REALLY doing much. If the O can figure ANYTHING out, the D will hold up. This team could salvage what could be considered a special season after all. They will get a chance against two top 15 teams in the next two weeks (though I think most people in the country are still not sold on the legitimacy of those teams in the top 15).
Williams isn't ready for 20 touches a game. BYU needs to develop Lasike or get Foote in there to share the load. He did not look good from late 3rd quarter up until the last drive when he found his burst again. Hill is finding some success. Doman just needs to give him more chances at success: 12 QB Draws, 3 option runs, and a bunch of screens aren't likely to yield results. Hurry up offense, taking shots down the field, unconventional screens (shovel pass to Williams) are where he looks comfortable. Doman needs to use the strengths to get him going: it doesn't have to be "safe" to help him gain confidence. In fact, Doman may be holding him back by not allowing him to make BIG plays with his arm.
BYU needs to figure out how to kick field goals. They need to figure out how to block on kicks. They need to figure out how to put it through the uprights. Suddenly, the 10 kicks they did in fall camp is looking like too few. Who knew? There are going to be games where it matters (like Utah). This was ALMOST one of those games.
BYU fans will look at this game and outcome and not like the direction of the team. But, as bad as it was (and in the heat of the moment, I forget this as well), there were some good things tonight. Hill completed passes to 7 different guys, completing 66.67% of his passes for 234 yards and a TD (and a pick). The offensive line continues to underperform, but BYU is also shuffling guys in and out there right now. I believe in 6 games this season, BYU has had 5 different starting line-ups. Lasike isn't ready for the big time, but, he needs to get a few carries here and there still. Just not on 4th down and 1 or 3rd and 2 in the 1st quarter. And let's be honest: I am just happy the offense's only scores gave BYU points...after Boise State and Utah, that's a feat!
The D held another opponent to under 300 yards. They held Keeton to under 10 yards per completion and 57% completion percentage (was 68% on the season coming in). Kerwynn Williams averaged 1.2 yards/carry, with a long of 7. Utah State's longest play of the game was 16 yards. This was an O that had at least one 50-yard play in 3 of their 5 games and had two or more plays over 30 yards in the other two. BYU stopped the big play offense from having ANY big plays.
BYU is 4-2, which is exactly where an above average TEAM would be at this juncture. I just cannot accept the fact that this D is so awesome but this O is so bad. It reminds me of one of Crowton's years where BYU lost a game 13-10 and Brady Poppinga said: our O scored 10 points, we shouldn't lose a game where they get to double digits. That's how BYU is this year. If they score 10, you have to feel like BYU has a chance!
The last 3 games, the D gave up 3 points. Against Utah, the D did not allow a TD drive of over 40 yards, meaning the points the "D" gave up were really on the O and special teams! Weber State didn't score until it was mostly backups playing. Washington State only managed 2 FGs. And this is with limited to no offensive production, excluding the Hawaii game.
Utah State averaged 3 yards/play: that means they AVERAGED a 3 and out. They came into the game averaging 450 yards and 28 points a game. 3 points. 2 turnovers. 25 minutes of possession, even with the BYU offense not REALLY doing much. If the O can figure ANYTHING out, the D will hold up. This team could salvage what could be considered a special season after all. They will get a chance against two top 15 teams in the next two weeks (though I think most people in the country are still not sold on the legitimacy of those teams in the top 15).
Williams isn't ready for 20 touches a game. BYU needs to develop Lasike or get Foote in there to share the load. He did not look good from late 3rd quarter up until the last drive when he found his burst again. Hill is finding some success. Doman just needs to give him more chances at success: 12 QB Draws, 3 option runs, and a bunch of screens aren't likely to yield results. Hurry up offense, taking shots down the field, unconventional screens (shovel pass to Williams) are where he looks comfortable. Doman needs to use the strengths to get him going: it doesn't have to be "safe" to help him gain confidence. In fact, Doman may be holding him back by not allowing him to make BIG plays with his arm.
Friday, October 5, 2012
USU-BYU 2012: 4th Quarter
First 5 Minutes
A little variety here. And some movement. Amazing what a little something different can do. Eat up some clock, grind Utah State down. BYU already possessed the ball 30 minutes with 11 minutes to go. And stupidity on the sideline...are you kidding me? BYU football...nah, not even close. This is ridiculous. Back up 15 yards, then a pick...man. It's just not even worth watching anymore...take 3 knees, punt, and hope the defense scores.
The CRUCIAL 5 Minutes (so titled before anything has happened, but my lack of confidence is just oozing out right now...wouldn't surprise me to see a 53-yard TD on the first play of Utah State's drive. Turns out it may have been a presumptive title, Utah State borrowed BYU's kicker)
Utah State is being more aggressive here, attacking BYU where they can: crossing routes over the middle. Couple of "almosts" for the BYU D, but Utah State converts and crosses the BYU 30. 3rd and 8, and BYU has no one playing the "flat" area leaving a 12-yard out wide open. 3rd and 15, guy runs a 10-yard route and is wide open: higher throw and he runs for the 1st after the catch...as good as the D is, this is one area they need to clean things up (granted, this has been BYU's defensive philosophy for 40 years, but still...). BYU needs to do one of two things with this possession: long, punishing drive that ends with a TD or a missed 4th down OR play-action bomb to Hoffman for a TD...
Another vanilla possession: screen pass, option run, and...there's the deep pass! No flag again...amazing. Good thing he caught it! I will say: Williams does not look fresh right now: not used to this much game action. I think Foote, Mendenhall, or Pritchard should go lone-back the next few plays. Stephenson is great at pinning teams deep...the O needs to get the ball to mid-field more often! Haha... 5 minutes to go. Will BYU's D fare better than the 2011 Aggies' D did at the end? Keeton looked pretty beaten up leaving the field last drive, but I'm sure he'll be energized by the situation. 97-yard game-winning TD drive? Yes, please!
Last 5 Minutes
Changing the spot? Little puzzling. Either way, BYU D has to step up and carry this team...again. So far, so good for the Aggies. And again...the front 7 steps up when BYU needs a play. Big sack...crowd getting loud, false start. Hey...Utah State must have been watching film of BYU: "let's shoot ourselves in the foot as many times as possible to make a potential win more miraculous. If we lose in the process, oh well, we'll learn from it..."
BYU just needs to run 6 plays, basically, to ice the game...not confident in that.
Why is it that BYU can rip off 32 yards in the last two minutes of a game but can only manage that a couple of times during the game??? Haha...well, they won. That's about all there is to say about it.
380 yards and 6 points. That's 63 yards for every point BYU scored. That is awful. I guess it could be worse: Utah State had about 250 yards and 3 points, so 80 yards/play. BYU is going to have to figure out a way to score some points. Utah State D was good, true, but BYU O was just so easy to stop AGAIN tonight. Doman has to take at least 6 risks a game, whether it be a trick play or a deep ball. One quasi-trick play and 2 deep balls was all tonight. He's halfway there. Against the more aggressive defenses (like Utah, Boise State, Utah State, Oregon State, and Notre Dame), Doman HAS to open up the field a little bit!
A little variety here. And some movement. Amazing what a little something different can do. Eat up some clock, grind Utah State down. BYU already possessed the ball 30 minutes with 11 minutes to go. And stupidity on the sideline...are you kidding me? BYU football...nah, not even close. This is ridiculous. Back up 15 yards, then a pick...man. It's just not even worth watching anymore...take 3 knees, punt, and hope the defense scores.
The CRUCIAL 5 Minutes (so titled before anything has happened, but my lack of confidence is just oozing out right now...wouldn't surprise me to see a 53-yard TD on the first play of Utah State's drive. Turns out it may have been a presumptive title, Utah State borrowed BYU's kicker)
Utah State is being more aggressive here, attacking BYU where they can: crossing routes over the middle. Couple of "almosts" for the BYU D, but Utah State converts and crosses the BYU 30. 3rd and 8, and BYU has no one playing the "flat" area leaving a 12-yard out wide open. 3rd and 15, guy runs a 10-yard route and is wide open: higher throw and he runs for the 1st after the catch...as good as the D is, this is one area they need to clean things up (granted, this has been BYU's defensive philosophy for 40 years, but still...). BYU needs to do one of two things with this possession: long, punishing drive that ends with a TD or a missed 4th down OR play-action bomb to Hoffman for a TD...
Another vanilla possession: screen pass, option run, and...there's the deep pass! No flag again...amazing. Good thing he caught it! I will say: Williams does not look fresh right now: not used to this much game action. I think Foote, Mendenhall, or Pritchard should go lone-back the next few plays. Stephenson is great at pinning teams deep...the O needs to get the ball to mid-field more often! Haha... 5 minutes to go. Will BYU's D fare better than the 2011 Aggies' D did at the end? Keeton looked pretty beaten up leaving the field last drive, but I'm sure he'll be energized by the situation. 97-yard game-winning TD drive? Yes, please!
Last 5 Minutes
Changing the spot? Little puzzling. Either way, BYU D has to step up and carry this team...again. So far, so good for the Aggies. And again...the front 7 steps up when BYU needs a play. Big sack...crowd getting loud, false start. Hey...Utah State must have been watching film of BYU: "let's shoot ourselves in the foot as many times as possible to make a potential win more miraculous. If we lose in the process, oh well, we'll learn from it..."
BYU just needs to run 6 plays, basically, to ice the game...not confident in that.
Why is it that BYU can rip off 32 yards in the last two minutes of a game but can only manage that a couple of times during the game??? Haha...well, they won. That's about all there is to say about it.
380 yards and 6 points. That's 63 yards for every point BYU scored. That is awful. I guess it could be worse: Utah State had about 250 yards and 3 points, so 80 yards/play. BYU is going to have to figure out a way to score some points. Utah State D was good, true, but BYU O was just so easy to stop AGAIN tonight. Doman has to take at least 6 risks a game, whether it be a trick play or a deep ball. One quasi-trick play and 2 deep balls was all tonight. He's halfway there. Against the more aggressive defenses (like Utah, Boise State, Utah State, Oregon State, and Notre Dame), Doman HAS to open up the field a little bit!
USU-BYU 2012: 3rd Quarter
Initial Sequence
If I play defense for BYU, I'm officially pissed. USU is pinned deep on the kickoff. The D stops them on 1st and forces a fumble on 2nd. Offense gets a penalty, generally sucks, and a fake FG gives USU the ball 14 yards better than where BYU started with it. I think the QB Draw has been overcalled already tonight. I'm sure we'll see it 5 more times too...that was an awful possession by the O. If you're going for the TD, you go for the TD. Don't fake it...
Middle Portion
This is a physical game. There isn't anything to be had between the tackles on either side. Utah State can't make any progress against BYU's front 7 either. BYU might be able to get something going with Williams if they stick with it, but they can't keep running Hill there. One, it isn't working and two, he's taking some shots. He can scramble on a pass play or keep on an outside option, but I don't want to see many more designed runs up the middle until the 4th Q.
Well, maybe they can get something going with Williams, if they can stop holding. And it's Braden Brown. It's not one of the new shuffled in, 3rd stringers playing because of injury either...and Hoffman is wearing an Aggie defender as he goes up for the catch...nothing. Followed by another shank by Stephenson...
Over the years, what made BYU good was consistency. The O and the kicking/punting game have ZERO consistency the past few years. Stephenson booms it 60, 50, 45 yards. Then every 4th punt goes 30 yards. The O cannot get out of their own way. They face 2nd and 3rd and long consistently. That is not a winning formula against Southern Utah, and it certainly won't get the job done against Utah State. This is not BYU football. It's been far too long since BYU has played BYU football.
Last 5 Minutes
Like I'm been saying all year: hit the backs out of the backfield. Now adding Mahina to the list of players thrown to this game. Then Williams too. Don't OVERDO the backs out of the backfield now, leaves Hill too open to the blitz with no extra blockers. Have some balance...can't EVER please a Cougar fan! BYU has to convert a few more 3rd downs in this game. If for no other reason, let the D catch their breath and flip the field a little bit.
I'd like to see them roll Hill to the right and get a guy on a backside skinny post. They keep flooding and it keeps not working...
D is beating up on Keeton...why does BYU block in the back on every punt return? After Falslev has cleared too...seriously. This is NOT a good BYU team. This is definitely not a top 25 team. This is a top 5 Defense though...they deserve better! Doman is too scared to take chances. The last play of the 3rd quarter is more the type of plays he needs to come up with: misdirection, get Hill one on one with a DE in space. Start trying more intermediate routes or guys dragging across the middle. It is like BYU has 5 pass plays and they are all VERY similar...
It's a good thing Utah State has similar problems with the kicking game. It gives me SOME confidence that BYU will actually win this thing.
If I play defense for BYU, I'm officially pissed. USU is pinned deep on the kickoff. The D stops them on 1st and forces a fumble on 2nd. Offense gets a penalty, generally sucks, and a fake FG gives USU the ball 14 yards better than where BYU started with it. I think the QB Draw has been overcalled already tonight. I'm sure we'll see it 5 more times too...that was an awful possession by the O. If you're going for the TD, you go for the TD. Don't fake it...
Middle Portion
This is a physical game. There isn't anything to be had between the tackles on either side. Utah State can't make any progress against BYU's front 7 either. BYU might be able to get something going with Williams if they stick with it, but they can't keep running Hill there. One, it isn't working and two, he's taking some shots. He can scramble on a pass play or keep on an outside option, but I don't want to see many more designed runs up the middle until the 4th Q.
Well, maybe they can get something going with Williams, if they can stop holding. And it's Braden Brown. It's not one of the new shuffled in, 3rd stringers playing because of injury either...and Hoffman is wearing an Aggie defender as he goes up for the catch...nothing. Followed by another shank by Stephenson...
Over the years, what made BYU good was consistency. The O and the kicking/punting game have ZERO consistency the past few years. Stephenson booms it 60, 50, 45 yards. Then every 4th punt goes 30 yards. The O cannot get out of their own way. They face 2nd and 3rd and long consistently. That is not a winning formula against Southern Utah, and it certainly won't get the job done against Utah State. This is not BYU football. It's been far too long since BYU has played BYU football.
Last 5 Minutes
Like I'm been saying all year: hit the backs out of the backfield. Now adding Mahina to the list of players thrown to this game. Then Williams too. Don't OVERDO the backs out of the backfield now, leaves Hill too open to the blitz with no extra blockers. Have some balance...can't EVER please a Cougar fan! BYU has to convert a few more 3rd downs in this game. If for no other reason, let the D catch their breath and flip the field a little bit.
I'd like to see them roll Hill to the right and get a guy on a backside skinny post. They keep flooding and it keeps not working...
D is beating up on Keeton...why does BYU block in the back on every punt return? After Falslev has cleared too...seriously. This is NOT a good BYU team. This is definitely not a top 25 team. This is a top 5 Defense though...they deserve better! Doman is too scared to take chances. The last play of the 3rd quarter is more the type of plays he needs to come up with: misdirection, get Hill one on one with a DE in space. Start trying more intermediate routes or guys dragging across the middle. It is like BYU has 5 pass plays and they are all VERY similar...
It's a good thing Utah State has similar problems with the kicking game. It gives me SOME confidence that BYU will actually win this thing.
USU-BYU 2012: 2nd Quarter Impressions
BYU's First Possession
Picked up the pace early, which was a nice change. Hill showed off his arm early, dead-arming an Aggie with a dart. But he decides a little too quickly to tuck and run, which has worked for him. On 3rd down, he's 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage and tucks the ball and has a gang of Aggies waiting for him, so it can work against him as well. I think with experience, he'll realize when he's that deep in the backfield, he has to keep his eyes downfield and draw the D closer to open passing lanes up downfield.
Aggies First Possession
Took their one (of maybe two) deep shot of the half to open the possession. Underneath coverage is where Aggies can (and did) find success. BYU giving Keeton too much time for sure. But he's getting tired running around so much. But when the pass D is getting picked on, the run D steps up. They cover screens well. It's that 8-10 yards downfield where Aggies need to hit.
BYU's Second Possession
I think the option is a good way to get Hill going. Or killed. QB draw: same thing. Quick outs are nice...I like those better. Still, I'd like to see an outside throw DEEP. I do like him spreading it around. Thrown to Falslev, Apo, Hoffman, Friel, Pritchard already. I like the way Doman is mixing it up now: a lot less predictable! And after I say that, Hill throws 3 in a row to Hoffman.
Man...the injuries (and what I saw as the lack of depth I mentioned before the season) on the OL sure show up in the kicking game. That's three kicks blocked already this season. In not very many attempts...
Aggie's Second Possession
Why has it taken so long for Ziggy to see playing time? It essentially took an injury to a DE for him to see significant time. Bronco brought more pressure this time around: three and out.
Is it just me, or does Falslev look shaky catching those punts? Also, I can't believe how fast (worthless) this half was. Boise State 7-6 is starting to look like an offensive explosion. BYU needs to finish out the half strong here. Either run the clock with the ball or score. Can't turn it over or go 3 and out and give Utah State the ball back with field position...
Well, after playing UBER-conservative for 29.5 minutes, Doman finally takes some shots because he HAS to. And it works. Hill has good touch on those throws. TAKE SOME CHANCES.
And now I understand why Bronco went for two at Boise State...
Picked up the pace early, which was a nice change. Hill showed off his arm early, dead-arming an Aggie with a dart. But he decides a little too quickly to tuck and run, which has worked for him. On 3rd down, he's 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage and tucks the ball and has a gang of Aggies waiting for him, so it can work against him as well. I think with experience, he'll realize when he's that deep in the backfield, he has to keep his eyes downfield and draw the D closer to open passing lanes up downfield.
Aggies First Possession
Took their one (of maybe two) deep shot of the half to open the possession. Underneath coverage is where Aggies can (and did) find success. BYU giving Keeton too much time for sure. But he's getting tired running around so much. But when the pass D is getting picked on, the run D steps up. They cover screens well. It's that 8-10 yards downfield where Aggies need to hit.
BYU's Second Possession
I think the option is a good way to get Hill going. Or killed. QB draw: same thing. Quick outs are nice...I like those better. Still, I'd like to see an outside throw DEEP. I do like him spreading it around. Thrown to Falslev, Apo, Hoffman, Friel, Pritchard already. I like the way Doman is mixing it up now: a lot less predictable! And after I say that, Hill throws 3 in a row to Hoffman.
Man...the injuries (and what I saw as the lack of depth I mentioned before the season) on the OL sure show up in the kicking game. That's three kicks blocked already this season. In not very many attempts...
Aggie's Second Possession
Why has it taken so long for Ziggy to see playing time? It essentially took an injury to a DE for him to see significant time. Bronco brought more pressure this time around: three and out.
Is it just me, or does Falslev look shaky catching those punts? Also, I can't believe how fast (worthless) this half was. Boise State 7-6 is starting to look like an offensive explosion. BYU needs to finish out the half strong here. Either run the clock with the ball or score. Can't turn it over or go 3 and out and give Utah State the ball back with field position...
Well, after playing UBER-conservative for 29.5 minutes, Doman finally takes some shots because he HAS to. And it works. Hill has good touch on those throws. TAKE SOME CHANCES.
And now I understand why Bronco went for two at Boise State...
USU-BYU 2012: 1st Quarter Impressions
I didn't like the first quarter called by Doman. So vanilla. So predictable (other than the going for it on 4th down twice). Major complaint though: 4th and 2 and they hand off to a guy with less than 10 career carries. The offense needs to do SOMETHING out of the ordinary in the 2nd quarter. Utah State knows BYU too well to allow this type of play-calling to work.
The defense played great. USU's scoring drive was aided by a few huge missed holding penalties, including on the 4th down conversion. They stood inside the 10. They prevented the big play. I thought the DL owned the OL. They collapsed the pocket well, though they aren't quite making Keeton panic yet.
I thought BYU would start even slower than this, so I'll take a 3-0 deficit. Utah State O's is going to have difficulty scoring on BYU's D. But if BYU keeps this up on O, they will have those same struggles. Still feel like BYU can get this done if they take a few risks or do something out of the ordinary...
The defense played great. USU's scoring drive was aided by a few huge missed holding penalties, including on the 4th down conversion. They stood inside the 10. They prevented the big play. I thought the DL owned the OL. They collapsed the pocket well, though they aren't quite making Keeton panic yet.
I thought BYU would start even slower than this, so I'll take a 3-0 deficit. Utah State O's is going to have difficulty scoring on BYU's D. But if BYU keeps this up on O, they will have those same struggles. Still feel like BYU can get this done if they take a few risks or do something out of the ordinary...
USU at BYU Prediction, 10/5/2012
Here's the rub on Utah State
Defense
They are aggressive and physical. They blitz a lot. They play a lot of in-your-face man-to-man coverage. They gang tackle and follow the flow. They play a 3-4, with three big DL and keep a rotation of 6-8 LBs so every year they bring back an experienced group. This year is no different. Really, this is the kind of D that BYU struggles with and has for many years. Part of that is intentional. Between 1996 and 2006, Utah was improving and setting up a defensive model that could do one of two things: beat BYU and allow them to compete in recruiting by getting the types of players they could realistically get. Enter Gary Andersen who brings it all together in time for the 2008 Utah Defense which is one of the best D's ever from a non-BCS team. The defense Gary Andersen and the Aggies employ is the D that was specifically designed to beat BYU.
Offense
Chuckie Keeton is a very good duel-threat QB. I do not give him the rave reviews that everyone does inside the state of Utah. He WILL be a great QB, but he's still learning and will grow into a phenomenal player next year (and would be a Heisman contender in 2014 if he played for a better team-which maybe Utah State can become, maybe not, we'll see). Kerwynn Williams is a great open field runner for the Aggies. Joe Hill is a reliable backup. But neither of those guys is Robert Turbin from last season! I believe the bigger problem is the lack of reliable WRs that can be consistent. There is experience, but Kerwynn Williams leads the team in both receptions and yards. Keeton does spread the ball around sufficiently with 4 guys averaging 3+ catches per game. He completes at a high percentage b/c it is very much based on the short passing game. The short passing game eliminates some of BYU's pressure packages and potentially exploits the defensive philosophies of Bronco's bend-but-don't-break D. However, BYU counters with LBs that are great in the open field and DBs that can get off blocks and make tackles. Realistically, BYU ultimately gains an advantage here: Utah State relies on the big play to score and not drives and BYU keeps everything in front of them and forces teams to drive down the field on them.
Where BYU Stands
Offense
The Utah State defense presents major challenges for BYU and Taysom Hill (and even more for Riley Nelson). I don't believe Ross Apo is tough enough to play in this game. I don't. He gets bumped off his routes too easily and he is going to get bumped a lot tonight. The ball needs to be spread around to be effective against Utah State, but BYU also needs to take advantage of one-on-one coverage situations on the outside with Cody Hoffman. They MUST go deep. I do worry about the RBs as they are going to see smaller (or no) holes, they are going to get hit hard, and they are going to see some adversity. I suspect we'll see a fumble or two out of that group tonight. They also need to get involved catching the ball out of the backfield more. Friel and Mahina are the guys that can have the biggest impact for BYU offensively, as they will end up in man-coverage against guys that should not be able to cover them one-on-one, particularly on play-action (if Doman remembers what that is...).
Defense
BYU doesn't need to do too much, though I would advise them to get a little more aggressive with Daniel Sorensen (like they did with Andrew Rich, bring him two yards closer to the line of scrimmage on multiple occasions tonight). I wouldn't blitz too often and I'd probably never bring more than 5 guys. USU runs a lot of short passes, screens, and draws which are plays designed to counter blitzes. Utah State won't go deep more than once or twice a game (maybe 2-3 times since this is BYU and Andersen loves to get aggressive/greedy in these games), so take away the short stuff. Stay home and tackle well. Williams and Keeton are both the kind of runners that can make big plays with ONE missed tackle. I also suspect we'll see some trickeration (reverses, double passes, etc.) from the Aggies. Again, the big key is that BYU needs to stay home and tackle well.
Prediction
I think BYU struggles tonight early. They are going to get popped and they are going to have to adjust. Quickly. If they dig too deep of a hole early, they might be in trouble. I think after two or three series, they do adjust. Then they can get in some kind of rhythm and sustain a few drives on O. They can force a few three and outs on D and potentially shut Utah State out in the second half. And ultimately, I have the Cougars winning the game with a closer margin than I had preseason: BYU 27, Utah State 17
Defense
They are aggressive and physical. They blitz a lot. They play a lot of in-your-face man-to-man coverage. They gang tackle and follow the flow. They play a 3-4, with three big DL and keep a rotation of 6-8 LBs so every year they bring back an experienced group. This year is no different. Really, this is the kind of D that BYU struggles with and has for many years. Part of that is intentional. Between 1996 and 2006, Utah was improving and setting up a defensive model that could do one of two things: beat BYU and allow them to compete in recruiting by getting the types of players they could realistically get. Enter Gary Andersen who brings it all together in time for the 2008 Utah Defense which is one of the best D's ever from a non-BCS team. The defense Gary Andersen and the Aggies employ is the D that was specifically designed to beat BYU.
Offense
Chuckie Keeton is a very good duel-threat QB. I do not give him the rave reviews that everyone does inside the state of Utah. He WILL be a great QB, but he's still learning and will grow into a phenomenal player next year (and would be a Heisman contender in 2014 if he played for a better team-which maybe Utah State can become, maybe not, we'll see). Kerwynn Williams is a great open field runner for the Aggies. Joe Hill is a reliable backup. But neither of those guys is Robert Turbin from last season! I believe the bigger problem is the lack of reliable WRs that can be consistent. There is experience, but Kerwynn Williams leads the team in both receptions and yards. Keeton does spread the ball around sufficiently with 4 guys averaging 3+ catches per game. He completes at a high percentage b/c it is very much based on the short passing game. The short passing game eliminates some of BYU's pressure packages and potentially exploits the defensive philosophies of Bronco's bend-but-don't-break D. However, BYU counters with LBs that are great in the open field and DBs that can get off blocks and make tackles. Realistically, BYU ultimately gains an advantage here: Utah State relies on the big play to score and not drives and BYU keeps everything in front of them and forces teams to drive down the field on them.
Where BYU Stands
Offense
The Utah State defense presents major challenges for BYU and Taysom Hill (and even more for Riley Nelson). I don't believe Ross Apo is tough enough to play in this game. I don't. He gets bumped off his routes too easily and he is going to get bumped a lot tonight. The ball needs to be spread around to be effective against Utah State, but BYU also needs to take advantage of one-on-one coverage situations on the outside with Cody Hoffman. They MUST go deep. I do worry about the RBs as they are going to see smaller (or no) holes, they are going to get hit hard, and they are going to see some adversity. I suspect we'll see a fumble or two out of that group tonight. They also need to get involved catching the ball out of the backfield more. Friel and Mahina are the guys that can have the biggest impact for BYU offensively, as they will end up in man-coverage against guys that should not be able to cover them one-on-one, particularly on play-action (if Doman remembers what that is...).
Defense
BYU doesn't need to do too much, though I would advise them to get a little more aggressive with Daniel Sorensen (like they did with Andrew Rich, bring him two yards closer to the line of scrimmage on multiple occasions tonight). I wouldn't blitz too often and I'd probably never bring more than 5 guys. USU runs a lot of short passes, screens, and draws which are plays designed to counter blitzes. Utah State won't go deep more than once or twice a game (maybe 2-3 times since this is BYU and Andersen loves to get aggressive/greedy in these games), so take away the short stuff. Stay home and tackle well. Williams and Keeton are both the kind of runners that can make big plays with ONE missed tackle. I also suspect we'll see some trickeration (reverses, double passes, etc.) from the Aggies. Again, the big key is that BYU needs to stay home and tackle well.
Prediction
I think BYU struggles tonight early. They are going to get popped and they are going to have to adjust. Quickly. If they dig too deep of a hole early, they might be in trouble. I think after two or three series, they do adjust. Then they can get in some kind of rhythm and sustain a few drives on O. They can force a few three and outs on D and potentially shut Utah State out in the second half. And ultimately, I have the Cougars winning the game with a closer margin than I had preseason: BYU 27, Utah State 17
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Wednesday Waffle, 10/3/2012
Sorry, been studying for finals all day, so this is coming out late. Also, I'm just taking a break, so my usual internal editor is probably at a bit of a low.
I know a lot of fans are over Riley Nelson. Clearly, my brother is also excited that Alisa is out of the way so the other backs can get some carries finally. However, what I'm waffling on this week is the fact that so many young and inexperienced players are taking the field against Utah State this Friday night. This is a rivalry game for Utah State. They would love nothing more than to march into LES and whip the Cougars. The last two games have shown that: BYU needed a miraculous comeback to win at home last year and the Aggies sealed the deal in Logan two years early in the 3rd Q.
BYU will be playing two TEs that haven't seen thijs type of action, a RB and QB who have no idea what they're going to see and feel tomorrow, and a WR who knows exactly what to expect tomorrow after being "targeted" last year. Oh, not to mention the fact that I have even less confidence in BYU's OL right now than I did in Utah's week two when they got owned by the Aggie D.
Yes, Jamaal Williams looked great last week. But he didn't experience any adversity. He didn't get hit hard. He never turned the ball over or was tackled for a loss (or hit as he is taking the handoff). How will he respond to that? Taysom Hill saw A LITTLE pressure, but he he had time and open receivers to throw to. There were huge running lanes for him too. Can he do it with tighter windows and more punishing hits on QB Draws? Apo is not going to be as fearless going over the middle after the hit he took last year. I have no idea what to expect from Friel/Mahina: the Aggie LBs and SS/FS are tough dudes. Can they block them in the run game? Can they get yards after the catch?
I just don't feel comfortable with so many young players going into this game. I'd like to see Zed Mendenhall and David Foote see some time in the backfield, especially in the first half. I'd like to see a deep ball or two early in the game to Hoffman to loosen things up. I just want to see some experienced players set the tone early and be a calming influence. I'm waffling on the wisdom of BYU's inexperience this week. I'm also waffling on my Accounting and Organizational Behavior grades with these finals tomorrow...and tomorrow night I'll be waffling on Ethics and Stats grades!
I know a lot of fans are over Riley Nelson. Clearly, my brother is also excited that Alisa is out of the way so the other backs can get some carries finally. However, what I'm waffling on this week is the fact that so many young and inexperienced players are taking the field against Utah State this Friday night. This is a rivalry game for Utah State. They would love nothing more than to march into LES and whip the Cougars. The last two games have shown that: BYU needed a miraculous comeback to win at home last year and the Aggies sealed the deal in Logan two years early in the 3rd Q.
BYU will be playing two TEs that haven't seen thijs type of action, a RB and QB who have no idea what they're going to see and feel tomorrow, and a WR who knows exactly what to expect tomorrow after being "targeted" last year. Oh, not to mention the fact that I have even less confidence in BYU's OL right now than I did in Utah's week two when they got owned by the Aggie D.
Yes, Jamaal Williams looked great last week. But he didn't experience any adversity. He didn't get hit hard. He never turned the ball over or was tackled for a loss (or hit as he is taking the handoff). How will he respond to that? Taysom Hill saw A LITTLE pressure, but he he had time and open receivers to throw to. There were huge running lanes for him too. Can he do it with tighter windows and more punishing hits on QB Draws? Apo is not going to be as fearless going over the middle after the hit he took last year. I have no idea what to expect from Friel/Mahina: the Aggie LBs and SS/FS are tough dudes. Can they block them in the run game? Can they get yards after the catch?
I just don't feel comfortable with so many young players going into this game. I'd like to see Zed Mendenhall and David Foote see some time in the backfield, especially in the first half. I'd like to see a deep ball or two early in the game to Hoffman to loosen things up. I just want to see some experienced players set the tone early and be a calming influence. I'm waffling on the wisdom of BYU's inexperience this week. I'm also waffling on my Accounting and Organizational Behavior grades with these finals tomorrow...and tomorrow night I'll be waffling on Ethics and Stats grades!
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Tuesday Tidbits: 10/2/2012
Total Defense:
BYU #5, 226.6
Utah State #11, 280.8
Boise State #23, 315.5
Utah #29, 329.5
Hawaii #82, 429.3
Washington State #104, 472.2
Total Defense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
Wisconsin #39, 348.8
Colorado State #81, 427.0
UNLV #92, 446.6
Total Offense:
Utah State #40, 452.2
BYU #64, 402.0
Boise State #72, 395.0
Washington State #84, 378.6
Utah #112, 298.3
Hawaii #114, 290.0
Total Offense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
UNLV #80, 384.6
Colorado State #103, 339.8
Wisconsin #104, 309.2
This early in the year, I don't put a whole lot of stock into "per game" averages as there isn't a large enough smattering of games to make them meaningful (though they aren't always meaningful after the entire season anyways). However, it is interesting to note that Utah State represents BYU's toughest challenge to this point in the season. BYU has faced some good defenses to this point in the year, but Utah State, statistically speaking, is the best thus far. So a struggling offense (yes, three years in a row this is the feeling of Cougar fans going into this game) has to try to play better against a better opponent. BYU's D also hasn't seen any good offenses this season (which has helped their D look great). Utah State represents an improvement on the offensive side of the ball as well.
On the flip side, Utah State's D hasn't been challenged by any prolific offenses, contributing to their good numbers on the defensive side of the ball. Similarly, they have not gone up against the best of defenses, so their offense looks a little better than it may actually be. Again, this is why I don't put much stock into stats, particularly this early in the year.
With that said, BYU will be challenged on both sides of the ball by Utah State, more so than any other game to this point of the season. A Ute fan friend of mine said that he believes Utah State is significantly better than Utah and he expects they will prove this week that they are the best team in the state. As difficult as it must be for a Ute to admit, Utah State is better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, who beat BYU just a few weeks back.
Transitive property aside, there are two major differences in this game than the "common opponent game" against Utah: 1) Utah State is not at home and 2) BYU is not on the road (well, and Taysom Hill is a pretty big third difference). Utah State won by 7 in OT at home against Utah. BYU missed two FGs on the last play of the game at Utah to lose by 3. The current theory is that a home game gives a 3.5-point edge to the home team. So Utah State is 7-3.5 (or 3.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. BYU is -3+3.5 (or 0.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. This game is played at BYU, so, doing the math, they win by 0.5 points...haha. That's not a prediction, that's just what we learned we're NOT supposed to do in stats: entirely misuse data!
If the past two years are any indication, Utah State will come to play and BYU had better too.
On one other note, BYU was -7 in turnover margin in their two losses. Boise State and Utah took care of the ball and forced turnovers (or rather they just waited for Riley to turn it over). Utah State is -5 on the year (turning it over nearly twice per game), with BYU -3 (and BYU turning it over exactly twice per game). I suppose that means we can expect a few mistakes on Friday night. Any Cougar fans feel comfortable about this situation?
BYU #5, 226.6
Utah State #11, 280.8
Boise State #23, 315.5
Utah #29, 329.5
Hawaii #82, 429.3
Washington State #104, 472.2
Total Defense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
Wisconsin #39, 348.8
Colorado State #81, 427.0
UNLV #92, 446.6
Total Offense:
Utah State #40, 452.2
BYU #64, 402.0
Boise State #72, 395.0
Washington State #84, 378.6
Utah #112, 298.3
Hawaii #114, 290.0
Total Offense for USU's opponents (Utah is common opponent):
UNLV #80, 384.6
Colorado State #103, 339.8
Wisconsin #104, 309.2
This early in the year, I don't put a whole lot of stock into "per game" averages as there isn't a large enough smattering of games to make them meaningful (though they aren't always meaningful after the entire season anyways). However, it is interesting to note that Utah State represents BYU's toughest challenge to this point in the season. BYU has faced some good defenses to this point in the year, but Utah State, statistically speaking, is the best thus far. So a struggling offense (yes, three years in a row this is the feeling of Cougar fans going into this game) has to try to play better against a better opponent. BYU's D also hasn't seen any good offenses this season (which has helped their D look great). Utah State represents an improvement on the offensive side of the ball as well.
On the flip side, Utah State's D hasn't been challenged by any prolific offenses, contributing to their good numbers on the defensive side of the ball. Similarly, they have not gone up against the best of defenses, so their offense looks a little better than it may actually be. Again, this is why I don't put much stock into stats, particularly this early in the year.
With that said, BYU will be challenged on both sides of the ball by Utah State, more so than any other game to this point of the season. A Ute fan friend of mine said that he believes Utah State is significantly better than Utah and he expects they will prove this week that they are the best team in the state. As difficult as it must be for a Ute to admit, Utah State is better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, who beat BYU just a few weeks back.
Transitive property aside, there are two major differences in this game than the "common opponent game" against Utah: 1) Utah State is not at home and 2) BYU is not on the road (well, and Taysom Hill is a pretty big third difference). Utah State won by 7 in OT at home against Utah. BYU missed two FGs on the last play of the game at Utah to lose by 3. The current theory is that a home game gives a 3.5-point edge to the home team. So Utah State is 7-3.5 (or 3.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. BYU is -3+3.5 (or 0.5) points better than Utah, if on a neutral field. This game is played at BYU, so, doing the math, they win by 0.5 points...haha. That's not a prediction, that's just what we learned we're NOT supposed to do in stats: entirely misuse data!
If the past two years are any indication, Utah State will come to play and BYU had better too.
On one other note, BYU was -7 in turnover margin in their two losses. Boise State and Utah took care of the ball and forced turnovers (or rather they just waited for Riley to turn it over). Utah State is -5 on the year (turning it over nearly twice per game), with BYU -3 (and BYU turning it over exactly twice per game). I suppose that means we can expect a few mistakes on Friday night. Any Cougar fans feel comfortable about this situation?
Monday, October 1, 2012
Never Too Late: Hawaii-BYU Recap...kind of
What I learned from watching BYU dismantle an overmatched Hawaii team: BYU coaches suck at identifying key personnel. Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams came in for injured starters Riley Nelson and Michael Alisa and outperformed anything BYU got from the two starters. The newly aligned O-Line didn't play phenomenal, but the two new starters were a pretty obvious step-up from the two guys that got benched. [One might argue it was a step down in quality of play against an under-manned Hawaii team, but what Hawaii put out there was better than what Weber State brought to the mix.]
Even Paul Lasike, converted Rugby player, looked like Alisa but faster and stronger. His run after catch on 3rd and forever makes one wonder what would have happened against Boise State or Utah if he had been the recipient of the ball in open space two or three times. Hill and Williams explosive plays could have been useful in the first half against Utah or Boise State, when the offense was completely stagnant/utterly useless. I am not saying that Hill or Jamaal should have replaced Riley or Alisa as starters, but giving Hill 10-12 snaps a game isn't that bad of an idea. Giving an extra 3-5 carries to Williams wouldn't have killed Alisa. And Taysom Hill can actually find Ross Apo for positive plays.
Anyway, that's my main takeaway. BYU had some very talented offensive players sitting on the bench watching while BYU lost games that it could (or even should) have won. Even defensively, I thought there were a lot of good things happening when back-ups got some time on the field. Alani Fua, Simote Vea, and Bronson Kaufusi played well. Kaufusi didn't make any plays that I recall but I saw him beating his blockers on a play or two as well as demanding a double-team from the back once or twice. Yet he only sees a few plays a game. Increasing his reps to 10, 15, or even 20 plays a game isn't going to wear him out.
There is more talent on this team than I thought coming into the season, and the schedule has been easier to this point (Boise and Utah are clearly not as good as I thought they would be), yet the record is worse. Get those guys on the field! And use the ones that are on the field better! Apo was only thrown to once during the Utah game and was targeted only twice at Boise State. He needs to be an asset, if for no other reason than to open the field up for the TEs and Hoffman (or Lasike coming out of the backfield). Also, I suspect we'll see more Mendenhall, Pritchard, and Lasike in the game this week, since Jamaal Williams can't pass block like Alisa. I think Pritchard could use a carry or two for his efforts! I'll admit it, I'm all for spreading the wealth around. BYU is much better when 10 people touch the ball in a game anyway.
Even Paul Lasike, converted Rugby player, looked like Alisa but faster and stronger. His run after catch on 3rd and forever makes one wonder what would have happened against Boise State or Utah if he had been the recipient of the ball in open space two or three times. Hill and Williams explosive plays could have been useful in the first half against Utah or Boise State, when the offense was completely stagnant/utterly useless. I am not saying that Hill or Jamaal should have replaced Riley or Alisa as starters, but giving Hill 10-12 snaps a game isn't that bad of an idea. Giving an extra 3-5 carries to Williams wouldn't have killed Alisa. And Taysom Hill can actually find Ross Apo for positive plays.
Anyway, that's my main takeaway. BYU had some very talented offensive players sitting on the bench watching while BYU lost games that it could (or even should) have won. Even defensively, I thought there were a lot of good things happening when back-ups got some time on the field. Alani Fua, Simote Vea, and Bronson Kaufusi played well. Kaufusi didn't make any plays that I recall but I saw him beating his blockers on a play or two as well as demanding a double-team from the back once or twice. Yet he only sees a few plays a game. Increasing his reps to 10, 15, or even 20 plays a game isn't going to wear him out.
There is more talent on this team than I thought coming into the season, and the schedule has been easier to this point (Boise and Utah are clearly not as good as I thought they would be), yet the record is worse. Get those guys on the field! And use the ones that are on the field better! Apo was only thrown to once during the Utah game and was targeted only twice at Boise State. He needs to be an asset, if for no other reason than to open the field up for the TEs and Hoffman (or Lasike coming out of the backfield). Also, I suspect we'll see more Mendenhall, Pritchard, and Lasike in the game this week, since Jamaal Williams can't pass block like Alisa. I think Pritchard could use a carry or two for his efforts! I'll admit it, I'm all for spreading the wealth around. BYU is much better when 10 people touch the ball in a game anyway.
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