The Mo Knows Polls

So I have a rule with my Top Ten: you cannot lose to an unranked team and stay in it. The two just don't go together. Also, you can't win and drop. What sense does that make?

Mo's Top Ten
1. Oklahoma [previous: 1]
2. LSU [5]
3. Missouri [6]
4. Alabama [7]
5. Texas [8]
6. Georgia [3]
7. Penn State [Unranked]
8. BYU [9]
9. Boise State [10]
10. Auburn [Unranked]

Mo's Mid-Major Top Ten
1. BYU [previous: 1]
2. Boise State [2]
3. Utah [4]
4. Tulsa [6]
5. Fresno State [5]
6. TCU [3] (no shame in losing to the best team in the country on the road)
7. Ball State [8]
8. Navy [Unranked]
9. Air Force [Unranked]
10. Western Michigan [Unranked]

The Strength of Schedule Argument

Let me be clear about two things before I start: first, if there was anything we learned from last season (and last weekend) it's that it is way too early in the season to start predicting who will play in the National Championship game. Second, I am not saying that BYU is better than USC, I am not saying they would win in a head-to-head matchup, I am merely comparing schedules.

So, everywhere people are throwing out arguments, propaganda, etc. about BYU's, or any other non-BCS school's, chances of playing in a national championship game. The main argument against BYU making it is "who did they play?" Or "put them in [pick your BCS conference] and they would finish in the middle of the pack, if that." At the same time, USC, who already has one loss, is still in the national title discussion. So, I thought I'd rank the difficulty of BYU's schedule to USC's, and see if their schedule is that much worse that USC, with one loss, has a more valid argument to be in the NC game than an undefeated BYU team.

1. BYU @ Utah, Ohio State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
At the beginning of the season, it would seem very obvious Ohio State wins. However, Ohio State has been less than impressive in every game except the Youngstown State game. In fact, the pollsters put these two teams fairly equal (AP Poll: Ohio State #14, Utah #15; Coaches' Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #12, Utah #15; Harris Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #14, Utah #15). Factor in that USC got Ohio State at home, without Beanie Wells and with the QB situation in flux. Then consider that BYU plays Utah on the road and that it's a rivalry game.
2. BYU @ TCU, Oregon @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
Well, essentially the same way as the previous one. The teams are about equal, but BYU plays TCU on the road. TCU's defense is much better than Oregon's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total defense. Oregon's offense, however, is much better than TCU's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total offense. Both of their rankings were similar last week and will be similar this week after USC dismantles Oregon.
3. BYU @ Air Force, USC @ Oregon State. Edge: USC
The teams may or may not be even (depends if you talk to a Pac 10 fan or an MWC fan). However, Corvallis is a tougher place to play than Colorado Springs. Confidence is huge in this one, as Oregon State knew they could beat USC, since they did it on the Trojans last trip up the coast. Meanwhile, Air Force has lost by 19 points or more in each contest against BYU since Bronco Mendenhall took over.
4. UNLV @ BYU, Arizona State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Arizona State is the obvious answer here, unless you remember a few weeks back when UNLV traveled to Tempe and beat Arizona State. You can't say much when a head-to-head matchup took place, and the road team won.
5. Wyoming @ BYU, California @ USC. Edge: USC
No contest.
6. New Mexico @ BYU, USC @ Arizona. Edge: BYU
Again, head-to-head matchup, New Mexico won. They were leading by two TDs with 5 minutes left in the game.
7. BYU @ CSU, Notre Dame @ USC. Edge: USC?
I'm not sure if Notre Dame is any good, but I know Colorado State isn't.
8. Northern Iowa @ BYU, USC @ Stanford. Edge: USC
The Best FCS team is still worse than a pretty bad Stanford team.
9. BYU @ Utah State, USC @ Virginia. Edge: USC
No contest.
10. SDSU @ BYU, USC @ Washington State. Edge: USC?
Let's face it, both of these schools are among the worst in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But playing in Pullman sucks bad. Being in Pullman sucks worse. Living in Pullman sucks worst. Maybe that's why Washington State sucks...

Common Opponents:
UCLA @ BYU, USC @ UCLA. Edge: USC
BYU hosted UCLA, USC has to travel the whole 5 miles for this rivalry game, where the stadium will be half-Trojan fans. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. The best team does not necessarily win.
BYU @ Washington, Washington @ USC. Edge: BYU
Road game vs. home game. Early in the season when expectations for a good season are high vs. later in the season when the expectations of a coach getting fired are high.

So, USC has 5 clear-cut advantages. BYU has 5 advantages. USC has two probable advantages, so the final score is USC 7, BYU 5.
That is not a large enough advantage to allow USC into the discussion with one loss and keep BYU out of the discussion. To be honest, I think both teams will drop one game and, therefore, be eliminated from the discussion anyway. But to disqualify BYU for lack of quality opponents is simply ridiculous. Now I'm not saying that the teams are equal, but their schedules are. So you can't eliminate one because of their schedule, unless you eliminate both, and I guarantee you, there isn't anyone in the country willing to eliminate both.

Is USC's title shot shot?

Can USC still make the National Championship? Without a doubt. Obviously it depends on them running the table. But if they did:

First off, let's take a look at how far they will probably drop. Let's look at what happened to teams ranked 1 or 2 last year when they lost to unranked opponents. USC was 1 and dropped to 7. Then number 2 California dropped to 10. South Florida was number 2 and dropped to 11. Boston College was 2 and dropped to 8. Ohio State went from 1 to 7. Oregon from 2 to 9. LSU went from 1 to 5. Missouri from 1 to 7. West Virginia from 2 to 11. So the average drop was 6.7 spots, the maximum drop was 9 and the minimum was 4. Looking at the current make-up of the top 12, obviously it depends on what happens this weekend, but I think they wouldn't drop any lower than 8, staying above Texas Tech, maybe even staying ahead of Wisconsin at 7.

Next, let's look at the schedules of the teams that would be ahead of them, 6 or 7 teams. 3 of them are from the Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. 3 of them are from the SEC: Georgia, Florida, and LSU. An undefeated Big 10 champ (Wisconsin or Penn State) could overtake USC. The Big East or the ACC champion, even if undefeated, wouldn't be able to pass up USC. The Mountain West champion couldn't overtake them either. So, only 1 Big 12 team can survive, 1 SEC team, and maybe 1 Big 10 team. If they run the table then, at worst, they would be 4th. For a Big 12 team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat 2 (or even 3 teams) currently in the top 10. For an SEC team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat at least 2 teams currently in the top 10 and maybe as many as 4 (beating one of them twice). For a Big 10 team to go undefeated, well, they'd have to be good...

Yes, USC certainly goes to the back of the line, however, the line will get shorter really quickly. If they take care of business, they'll be back to the front come December.

Mo's Top 10

Here was my top 10 from this morning. There's also a line about how they can improve. It's probably different now, though if USC comes back to win this game, they deserve to be where they at.

1. Oklahoma-um...give up less points? Tough to find anything yet...but they haven't played anybody either.
2. USC-join the Mountain West, improve the SOS.
3. Florida-offense, offense, offense: isn't that supposed to Urban Meyer's specialty? It hasn't looked like it so far.
4. Georgia-pass defense looks a little suspect. Good thing they play in the SEC and won't have to worry about it, EVER.
5. LSU-must repeat that 4th quarter performance from the Auburn game AT Florida a few games from now.
6. Missouri-play somebody! An overrated Big 10 team doesn't count. Defense hasn't looked great against sub-par competition (55th in scoring defense).
7. Alabama-punch it in in the red zone. Way too many field goals inside the 20, especially given the level of competition.
8. Texas-the game starts at the opening kickoff, don't wait until the second quarter to show up. That won't work in Norman, not even at Colorado or at Tech.
9. BYU-play half as well on the road as they do at home. They must dominate the next 2 games; win the games you are supposed to win, and win them big. USC, remember that next time.
10. Boise State-this may be too high for them, HOWEVER, look at the resume, RIGHT NOW. They have beaten a ranked team on the road. Very few teams can say that, in fact, Wake Forest is the only nationally ranked team not in my top 10 who can. Yes, they played a FCS team, but so did most other teams in the top 25.

After taking a good look at these teams, I think Florida has a real good shot at the national title, they will only play two more ranked teams (yes, in that powerful SEC, only two more, Vandy won't be ranked by the time they host Florida), one at home, one on the road. I would have said 2 hours ago that USC was a shoe-in too, but maybe not. Their conference isn't helping them out with their weak out of conference performance. However, if they drive down 98 yards in 3 minutes, and then win in OT, they will back to shoe-in status. Oklahoma gets their first test this weekend, maybe...

Picks, picks, picks

Week 4: 46-11 (81%)
Week 3: 43-11 (80%)
Week 2: 55-11 (83%)
Week 1: 61-12 (84%)

11's are wild. BYU sure thinks so. Maybe I'll only miss 10 this week...

Well, I'm watching USC-Oregon State right now. You see this all the time, once you get into conference play, teams start to struggle because of the familiarity factor. I still think USC will pull this one out, but crazy things happen in Corvallis from time to time. My pre-game prediction was 31-13, though Oregon State just scored its second TD, so it looks like the 13 is out of the question.

Here are some picks for this weekend's games:
Louisville over UConn, 27-17
Florida over Ole Miss, 41-20
Ohio State over Minnesota, 30-20
Miami over UNC 21-17
Northwestern over Iowa, 38-13 (Sutton rushes for 200+ after his "mystery" injury, questionable status)
ECU over Houston, 27-24 (3-straight 3-point losses for Houston)
Colorado over Florida State, 16-10
UCLA over Fresno State, 17-13 (this is a turning point game for UCLA-if this happens, the WAC takes a big hit)
Purdue over Notre Dame, 24-17 (Clausen and ND need to improve on 3rd downs)
Rutgers over Morgan State, 3-0 (just kidding, they'll win by more than 3, I hope)
California over Colorado State, 31-21
Texas A&M over Army, 24-3
Utah over Weber State, 42-16 (Whittingham will lose a big-time starter in the 4th quarter, or late in the 3rd, when they have no business being in the game)
SDSU over Idaho, 34-6
Nebraska over Virginia Tech, 24-14
Washington over Stanford, 28-13 (Huskies finally get a break in their schedule, a Pac 10 team!)
UNLV over Nevada 38-37 (shootout, anyone?)

TCU-Oklahoma prediction coming tomorrow. I'll post my top 10 later tonight, or tomorrow on my lunch break. I might have to make a few changes based on this USC performance......

The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10

1. BYU - even on a "down" offensive day the team scores 44 points (granted, 14 were scored by the defense). Bronco's defensive philosophy continues to work: defend the run and the deep ball. Give up the short passes and force them to drive down the field. The punter kicked well. The running game was working. The second and third string guys saw plenty of time. This keeps the starters rested, it develops depth for this year, and prepares next year's starters. It's a well-oiled machine in Provo these days.
2. Boise State - I thought by the end of the year, perhaps a little sooner, Boise State would prove to be the second best non-BCS team. They arrived there about a month or two ahead of schedule. Winning at Oregon is nearly impossible for non-conference foes, just ask Oklahoma. The last out-of-conference team to win at Autzen was the season-opener in 2004. The defense has had only one bad quarter the entire season, giving up 19 points to Oregon in a frantic 4th quarter comeback effort that fell short. Kellen Moore has been better than advertised. The line has been serviceable, at least in protecting the QB. They still need to open up more holes for Ian Johnson in the running game. BSU has been the most consistent non-BCS team, besides BYU.
3. TCU - the question with TCU was the offense. They have had solid defenses for years, they are currently number 1 in the country on that side of the ball, giving up a measly 183 yards/game. Andy Dalton has been more than adequate making plays in the passing game. He is also making plays with his feet as necessary. The running game has been spectacular, 12th in the country. This team looks scary good. They have the BIG game for the non-BCS this weekend, with a shot at number 2 Oklahoma. It might be back to reality for them this weekend, BUT, BUT, they might be the ones to bring OU back to reality.
4. Utah - would the real Utah please show itself? They DOMINATED Air Force up and down the field, all day long. They held Air Force to 53 yards rushing, and under 200 total yards. They threw for over 200 and rushed for just under 200. But they had to score with a minute left to take the lead for good. They only played a half against UNLV and Michigan. If they lose, it will be because their offense gives up as many points as it scores. I think that could still happen once or twice this year. They can't play like they have been against TCU, BYU, or even New Mexico or Oregon State. The defense has been solid, however.
5. Fresno State - well, despite the fact they forgot to play ANY defense, they still won a game over 2,000 miles from home in double OT. They played with the second-best team in the Big 10 (Penn State number 1, Wisconsin number 2) and nearly came away with a W. Their win against Rutgers has lost some luster in the past few weeks, but they have another statement game this weekend AT UCLA. They have the ability to take people out of their games and get in a dog fight. Too bad they have to play Boise State on the blue carpet.
6. Tulsa - is there a team left on their schedule that can hold them to less than 40 points and 500 yards? Well, there hasn't been one on the schedule so far to accomplish that (even New Mexico, who traditionally has a solid defense, couldn't hold them to less than 8 TDs). They've gone over 50 points and 600 yards twice. All this, while breaking in a new QB who is averaging over 400 yards a game. The defense could use some work, giving up 20+ points/game. If they continue to score 50 points a game, however, there isn't an offense on their schedule that can keep up.
7. ECU - well, it finally happened. The glass slipper is gone. I was not sold on ECU, and I am even more convinced that their season will end in single digit wins. Since C-USA went to the current format of 12 teams in 2 divisions, ECU hasn't won its division, and has lost at least two conference games each year. They have also been shaky on the road.
8. Ball State - Someone from the MAC was bound to have a good season. Ball State is looking like it, as they got an emotional win in-state this weekend against Indiana. They have won on the road, they have beaten a BCS team, and they have beaten two teams that played in bowl games last year. They don't have another team on their schedule that they couldn't beat, even without Love, their WR who went down against Indiana.
9. Troy - they gave Ohio State all they wanted in the Horseshoe. That isn't such a tough thing to do these days, but for a Sun Belt team it should be. The Buckeyes managed just 309 total yards on the boys from Troy. Now they get a shot at Oklahoma State and their man-coach, who is no longer 40. The offense is going to have to come around if they are going to compete, and, more importantly, if they want to stay in my top 10.
10. UNLV - I have to give UNLV a little love. They have defeated two BCS teams in overtime, including a ranked one on the road. They dominated most of the first half on the road against Utah. They have another chance to show something this week against in-state rival Nevada. Looking at their schedule they could actually get bowl eligible.

Looking ahead at Air Force's upcoming schedule, they could reel off 6 wins in a row to get to 9-1 and be ranked before hosting BYU on November 15th. Look for them to make an appearance in my top 10 in the next few weeks.

BYU-Wyoming

Wyoming is giving up about 19 points/game, in 3 home games, against less than stellar offenses. They are scoring 13 points/game, in 3 home games, against less than stellar defenses. Now they go on the road, against a stellar offense, and a defense that isn't quite stellar, but they did shut out a Norm Chow coached team.

BYU is giving up an average of 8.5 points/game at home, while scoring an average of 50. They could have averaged a whole lot more but they called the dogs off in the 3rd quarter against UCLA.

All signs point to a blowout. The play will point to a blowout as well. Not much need to analyze this one: BYU 48, Wyoming 10. The only questions are: will Max Hall throw for 300+? Will he throw for 5 TDs+? Will Unga rush for 100+? Will Pitta have 100+ receiving yards? Who will pick up the slack for Michael Reed, who will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an injury? What will we see from O'Neill Chambers? Will the defense record 5 sacks? Will Wyoming get to 300 total yards? Can Thunder and Lightning be contained? If Wyoming can get some of these questions answered in their favor, BYU might win by less than 38...

Saturday games

Here's my picks for most this weekend's games.

Penn State over Temple
Georgia Tech over Mississippi State (big win for the ACC)
Northwestern over Ohio
Iowa over Pittsburgh
Purdue over CMU
Alabama over Arkansas
Boston College over UCF (closer than the experts think)
Maryland over EMU
Akron over Army
Missouri over Buffalo
UCLA over Arizona
Tulane over LA-Monroe
Florida over Tennessee
Oregon over Boise State
CSU over Houston (I think this game will decide the direction both of these teams go)
Michigan State over Notre Dame
UNC over Virginia Tech (ECU's wins look less appealing after this week)
Navy over Rutgers (both teams need a big win)
Southern Miss over Marshall
Florida State over Wake Forest (night game AT FSU, good luck Wake)
Indiana over Ball State
Tulsa over New Mexico
Arkansas State over Middle Tennessee State
Cincinnati over Miami (OH)
TCU over SMU
Fresno State over Toledo
Stanford over SJSU
UNLV over Iowa State
UTEP over New Mexico State

Still a little undecided on some of the other games: Vandy-Ole Miss, LSU-Auburn, and I am leaning back over to Air Force in the Utah-Air Force game, so we'll call that one undecided.

Weekend predictions

Here are some predictions for weekend games:
FAU 24, Minnesota 21: two straight seasons beating the Gophers? Sure. Minnesota is 3-0, but they haven't played anybody half as good as FAU. Wait, that doesn't sound right.
ECU 27, NC State 28: Cinderella left her slipper back in Greenville. NC State will be up for this game more than the two Virginia squads were.
Troy 20, Ohio State 24: Ohio State's offense is going to be better than it has been this season. I think Pryor will enjoy his new, expanded role. Troy is good, but it's tough for anybody to win in Columbus.
Notre Dame 17, Michigan State, 28: Jimmy Clausen, welcome back to reality. They've eased in to the season nicely, but this game will remind the Irish QB about the 58 sacks last season. No more SDSU offense, no more 5 UNFORCED fumbles by Michigan, they are playing a team not in shambles for the first time this season.
Utah 28, Air Force 23: Air Force must establish the fullback. They must run Iso's. They've got to run the ball up the middle. The ends and OLBs for Utah are just too good. Will Utah's offense play a complete game? Not likely, they always struggle against disciplined defenses. Their offense is based on misdirection and trickeration. Discipline cancels that out to some degree. Utah has too much size and speed though.
Rutgers 13, Navy 27: I'm done with analysis, just trust my scores.
Boise State 24, Oregon 28
Idaho 49, Utah State 50: or 3, 2: 1-point game
New Mexico 27, Tulsa 38
LSU 11, Auburn 8 (or some other very odd score where LSU wins by 3: 12-9?)
Georgia 42, Arizona State 24
Houston 28, CSU 31
Fresno State 27, Toledo 24
TCU 39, SMU 10
UNLV 27, Iowa State 16
Wyoming, BYU: yeah right. You'll get my analysis for this game tomorrow night/Saturday morning.

The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10

1. BYU-they may not have beat the best team of any non-BCS school, but they have the best win. It's tough to argue with 59-0. It's tough to argue with 2-0 against the Pac 10. It's tough to argue with a Heisman contender. It's tough to argue with all the Bruin bodies flying through the air, including their linebackers. It's tough to argue with 2 straight undefeated runs through conference. It's tough to argue that BYU is NOT the number one non-BCS school.
2. East Carolina-they are the only non-BCS team to beat TWO ranked teams. I am still waiting to see how they do on the road, in conference, against a team that isn't Tulane (they haven't won more than 4 games since 2004 when they won 5). They have proven they can beat good teams at home. Let's see how they do AT NC State. Also of note, they haven't won a conference title since 1999.
3. Utah-they continue to make the argument that they are the best/most talented non-BCS team. After watching the UNLV game, however, I continue to believe that they have a long ways to go as a program. After an uninspiring first half, they left their starters in the game until 42-14 and under 6 minutes left in the game. Oh, and those starters ran a trick play with a 3-TD lead in the 4th quarter. Show me some class, show me developing depth by playing 2nd and 3rd stringers, show me you understand why you have injury problems (like leaving starters in the game when it's already decided).
4. Tulsa-they just continue to win by putting up obscene offensive numbers. They haven't even played a home game yet and they're 2-0. New Mexico comes to town this week, who is 1-2. It will be Tulsa's only real test for the next month-plus. They have been a bit overshadowed by ECU and the MWC. Let's not forget, they outscored BYU in a game last year when BYU's offense was clicking; they are the first team to do that in a few years.
5. TCU-their defense is scary good. 8 points/game includes a roadie in-conference and a home game against a Pac-10 team. Their offense always has good RBs and WRs, so it all depends on Andy Dalton. If he continues to make the strides he has made, BYU and Utah might leave their game with the Horned Frogs a bit unhappy. OU looms large next week, but they have in-state "rival" SMU first.
6. Boise State-not a whole lot of beef on the schedule so far, but they have a chance to make the kind of statement the MWC made with a victory at Oregon. Well, before the season, I had them dropping this game, before finishing with 9 straight wins. I'm not so sure they can't pull it off this weekend, but it's Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have only lost 4 times the last 3 seasons there, and none of them were out of conference games. The Broncos offense is coming around a bit slower than I thought, but the defense has been as good as, if not better than, advertised.
7. Ball State-could this be right? Ball State? Well hey, they can score points with the best of them. Their defense looks like an Achilles Heel and I think this weekend it might show against Indiana. I wouldn't be sad to see them win this game at all. The MWC brought down the Pac 10 last weekend, let's get the MAC attacking the Big 10! Not so fast, my friend. I don't even think they'll win their division in the MAC (Central Michigan will take care of that), but they are a nice early season story.
8. Fresno State-don't let the loss to Wisconsin fool you. If, and it's a big IF, no other non-BCS teams go undefeated and they win out (granted, playing at Boise State the last game of the season will be a tough one), they could sneak in to the dance. They only have 12 spots to climb, and, if they win out, they'll 10 wins to do it with. Unfortunately, their win at Rutgers is looking less impressive with each embarrassing performance the Scarlet Knights have. The Bulldogs have taken advantage of their opponents' (and the officials') mistakes and their defense has stymied a Big East and a Big 10 team already.
9. Air Force-they just do what they do: run the football, play disciplined defense, and, well, that's it, that's what they do. Oh, and win. Calhoun must have the magic formula out there in Colorado Springs. The schedule hasn't exactly been tough, but that all changes this week with Utah coming to town. They did beat the Utes last year. I'd like to make it down to this game, but, there's too much on TV at the same time! Looks like the cupboard wasn't as bare as I thought.
10. Troy-I really like Troy. Call me crazy, but I think they actually have a chance at Ohio State this week. They are certainly getting them at the right time, as I am sure the Buckeyes are questioning themselves and they are in the middle of a QB transition. OSU is a team without an identity. Where Troy has an identity: they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes who want to prove they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes. I think they will come up just short, but they deserve mention here at 2-0. The win at Middle Tennesse looks even better in hindsight as MTSU beat Maryland and played Kentucky close on the road. Troy looks like what I thought Florida Atlantic would look like.

MWC vs. WAC

BYU vs. Boise State
Utah vs. Fresno State
TCU vs. Nevada
Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech
New Mexico vs. Hawaii
Wyoming vs. San Jose State
Colorado State vs. New Mexico State
UNLV vs. Utah State
SDSU vs. Idaho

The MWC would register blowout wins from 3 through 9. They would certainly be favored in 1 and 2, probably by at least a touchdown. What do you guys think? If BYU, Utah, TCU, or Air Force were in the WAC, I see 7 easy conference wins, maybe only 6 on a bad year (or on a good year for the WAC-but certainly 7 easy ones THIS year).

The Mountain West vs. the Big Boys

Prior to the season I said that the Mountain West Conference was arguably the best non-BCS conference. They took that one further, now I would consider them one of the best conferences, period. I know they are getting a lot of hype around the country right now, and it's about time. Let's look at it for a brief second, objectively. They are a top heavy conference, you know, kind of like the Pac 10 or Big 10. They do have some weak teams, kind of like having Minnesota, Washington State, Syracuse, Duke in your conference. They are looking more equal to a BCS conference with each comparison. Now I know they are nowhere near the SEC or the Big 12, but those two conferences have 10 of the best 15 teams year in and year out. Let's compare the top 4 in the Mountain West with the top 4 in the non-Big 12/SEC BCS conferences.

BYU vs. USC (Big L), Wisconsin (toss up), Clemson (leaning Clemson), South Florida (home team takes it)
Utah vs. Oregon (lot of points scored), Ohio State (Utah), Virginia Tech (Best Beamer-balling team wins), West Virginia (defense wins: Mountaineers need not apply)
TCU vs. Arizona State? (are they STILL ranked?), Penn State (lot of injuries in this one), Wake Forest (leaning Deacons), UConn (sad day for the Big East, UConn is your third best team)
Air Force vs. California? (been there, hung with that), Illinois (the Juice is loose), Georgia Tech (throw the ball much?), Pitt?/Rutgers? (these are BCS teams? Must have low standards these days)

BYU-well, there are about 5 programs in the country that no one really competes with and USC is one of them. BYU's run defense has been quite stout against the run, minus when they play a mobile QB (which the Badgers do not have), so they could hang against Wisconsin, if Fresno held them to 13 without ANY offense, BYU could hold them under 21 and even manage to score a few points in the process. Clemson's speed might pose a problem for BYU, but with all that speed, and Citadel on the schedule, they are averaging less than 30 points a game. With South Florida, the home team would win (South Florida needed OT to beat UCF on the road, BYU barely escaped needing OT to beat Washington).
Utah-against Oregon, Pac 10 officials doing the game? No, then I give Utah a 50-50 chance. Last year Utah killed UCLA, who destroyed Oregon. Ohio State, Utah has way too much speed for them! Also, considering Utah runs the same offense as Illinois, but with a better QB, I'd say their chances are good. Virginia Tech, didn't they only score 4 times against Furman? Utah could probably shut them out with their defense. West Virginia and Utah: offense, Pat White a better runner, Brian Johnson a better passer (by far), defense, WVU, what defense? Utah, smack you in the mouth and steal your lunch money when the ref isn't looking.
TCU-since TCU has outscored UNLV 111 to 23 the past 3 years, Arizona State should be no problem, assuming Arizona State proves it's the 3rd best team in the Pac 10. Penn State, first one to 6 wins. There would be some helmets flying in that hard-hitting affair. Wake Forest would be an interesting game, slight edge to the Demon Deacons because of their unorthodox offense. Then again, TCU has an unorthodox defense. UConn, wouldn't stand a chance against a team from Texas, handle Baylor this week and we can talk, yes, I said Baylor, and I don't mean squeak out a victory. HANDLE Baylor.
Air Force-California (assuming they establish themselves as 4th in the Pac 10) and Air Force played in a bowl game last year. Air Force had a lead until their 4-year starting QB got injured. They ended up losing by 7. Maybe not a W, but they can definitely hang. Illinois, which Illinois shows up? The one that beat Ohio State last year in Columbus, or the one that barely held on at home to beat Louisiana-Lafayette last week? Georgia Tech, now that would be interesting. It could be the first game since Knute Rockne without a completed pass. Former Navy coach against current service academy. Against whoever happens to play like the 4th-place Big East team, I'd put my money on the disciplined defense and methodical offense against Pitt's schizophrenia and Rutger's complete lack of offense.

I don't see many blowouts, if any (excluding USC), in those games. I would pay money to see any of those games. While Air Force or TCU may not have the flash of some of their opponents, they are consistent, disciplined, and tough. Utah may not have the depth as the teams they match up against, talent-wise, the 1s and 2s could play or outplay their opponents. BYU has the size, toughness, and football IQ to stay with their opponents' offenses and there isn't a team, besides USC, that has a defense versatile enough to stop BYU's offense for 4 quarters.

I'd take the top 4 of the Mountain West, as a whole, against the top 4 of BCS conferences not named the Big 12 or SEC. Beyond that, I'd give SDSU/UNLV a fair shake against teams like Washington State, Minnesota, Syracuse, Duke, etc. Next up: The Mo Knows Mid-Major Ten

BYU vs. UCLA

Why BYU should win big:

Offense: They can come at you so many different ways. They can run the ball. They can work the short passing game. They can throw the ball down the field. They have a lot of experience. They can convert on third and anything, or fourth and anything in the right circumstances... They are big, strong, tough, disciplined, smart, etc. They had some success running from the shotgun against UCLA last year, hopefully that lesson will be applied. Also, there is no Bruce Davis on the Bruin defense this time around.

UCLA's offense: their QB has started 4 road games in his career, all for SDSU, compiling an 0-4 record, losing by an average score of 44-14 and he only threw for over 100 yards in one of those games. Granted he has a better supporting cast now, but still, he has not performed well on the road in his career. They will also likely be without their best RB, WR, and TE. Craft was their 3rd string QB before the injuries moved him to number 1. The offensive line was bad to begin with. The personnel isn't there, and what is there is inexperienced, i.e. more likely to get rattled on the road.

Home-field advantage: BYU is 16-3 at home in the Bronco Mendenhall era, including 13 consecutive wins dating back to the home opener in 2006.

Confidence: the last two times BYU played UCLA they believed they could beat the Bruins. This time they know they can and they believe they will. It makes a huge difference. I think beating Washington on the road was the last hurdle to get this team the confidence it needs to compete with anybody.

The sack machine: BYU recorded 4 sacks last game against what was supposed to be a solid Pac-10 offensive line. It should be interesting to see how they do against what is supposed to be a weak, inexperienced, thin Pac-10 offensive line.

Why UCLA should win big:

Coaching: the three-headed monster knows how to coach, motivate, prepare, and adjust. Walker held BYU's offense to under 300 yards the last time these two faced off and always has his guys playing mentally and physically tough. Norm Chow always has an offense in Provo. His BYU teams always moved the ball well and on USC's lone trip to Provo under Chow, Leinart, Bush, and Dwayne Jarrett put on a clinic on their way to 42 points. And Rick Neuheisel is the Barack Obama of College Football. He can take a big fat load of crap and make people believe in it and turn out in record numbers to support it.

Speed and athleticism: BYU's fastest player wouldn't even qualify to race in a heat against UCLA's fastest. The recruiting classes over the past 4 years, i.e. the players that will be participating in the game, don't even compare, or if you did compare them it'd be laughable.

Turnovers: BYU has been turning the ball over and, for the most part, been unable to cause turnovers themselves. UCLA didn't fare well in the turnover battle against Tennessee, but Craft settled down after throwing 4 first-half picks. BYU's turnovers usually end up in points for the opposition, or come at crucial times, like on the goal line at the end of a beautiful 97-yard drive. UCLA turnovers in game 1 didn't take any points away from them or give any to Tennessee.

BYU's defense: if there is anything that can remedy that rushing performance against Tennesse it is playing against BYU. UCLA was the only team to have a 100-yard rusher against BYU last year. The secondary hasn't looked all that great either as Washington's inexperienced corps of receivers was able to work openings all day. They did hold Jake Locker to nearly 30 rushing yards less than his career average, however...

Why BYU WILL win big:

Take a neutral site one-point victory and add to that the fact that:

This game is in Provo, worth 6 points for BYU.
The injuries to UCLA's key offensive players, minus 3 points from UCLA.
You take out BYU's back 7, worth 7 points for UCLA.
Harvey Unga and Fui Vakapuna are both 100%, worth 7 points for BYU.
BYU has a kicker, worth 3 points for BYU.
Add Chow and Neuheisel, worth 7 points for UCLA.
Subtract Bruce Davis, worth 3 points for BYU.
Max Hall has seen every film there is on UCLA, worth 7 points for BYU.
Dennis Pitta is now related to Max Hall, worth 3 points for BYU.

It's a simple math equation. Start with a one-point victory, end up with a 21-point victory. On paper, BYU should win big, unfortunately they play on grass, not cardboard. If BYU can avoid costly turnovers and continue to convert on third down anywhere close to the 78% they have so far this season, scoring shouldn't be a problem for them. If UCLA isn't able to run the ball effectively, their defense could be spending a lot of time on the field. I don't see UCLA being able to sustain drives for long, more due to bad, inexperienced offense, not good defense. I see BYU able to continue to march methodically down the field, more due to good, experienced offense, not bad defense.

Final Score:

BYU 31, UCLA 10: if BYU is as good as they think they are, this game should be no problem. If it turns out to be a problem, Cougar fans, strap on your Cubs motto: next year's our year.

P.S. My gauge must have been a little off on my guess for Kansas and South Florida, I had 35-31, not 37-34. Shoot. By the bye I am 83% on the season (88% on Saturday games, but only 67% on games played on other nights of the week-there must be something to that).

A few predictions

I've been in LA for a training meeting all week and haven't been able to write, sorry to my loyal readers, all 3 of you. Each week I write some predictions on my board at work, so here they are for your ridicule, w/o analysis:

Michigan 27, Notre Dame 24
Oklahoma 38, Washington 17
SMU 31, Texas Tech 52
Utah 42, Utah State 10
Oregon 35, Purdue 34
Kansas 31, South Florida 35
Wisconsin 31, Fresno State 21
Ohio State 20, USC 16 (yeah, call me crazy but I think the Buckeyes can win this one...maybe)

I also have my prediction for the BYU-UCLA game up there, but I'm going to give my analysis on that one later so I don't want to spoil it by giving you the score right now.

Big non-BCS news

Well, obviously the biggest story of the day revolves around the BYU-Washington game. Let me recap just in case you live in England, or a cave, or wherever else you would have to live in order to have no access to Sportscenter, College Football Final, your local news, or any media that discussed sports for at least 30 seconds yesterday.

On third and goal from the 3 yard line, trailing 28-21, with 8 seconds and one timeout left, Washington ran a QB draw. Jake Locker made some good moves, broke a tackle, and stumbled into the end zone. He proceeded to toss the ball up into the air. The nearest official, after seeing the toss, immediately reached for his yellow flag, calling an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, moving the game-tying extra point back 15 yards. BYU proceeded to block the extra point and won the game 28-27. Let the controversy begin.

For clarification sake, rule 9, section 2, article 1, part (c) gives one of the definitions of unsportsmanlike conduct as, after scoring a touchdown, "throwing the ball high into the air." Article 1, itself, states that after scoring a touchdown the ball must be either set on the ground, or handed to an official. The NCAA has informed all officials that these rules are to be strictly enforced this year. The Pac 10 officials issued a statement after the game saying that it was not a judgment call, the rule SPECIFICALLY mentions the tossing of the ball as a penalty. The only judgment is whether the ball went "high into the air." I saw so many replays of the toss on ESPN that I pulled out a stopwatch to time how long the ball was in the air: 2.5 seconds, you decide if the ball remaining in the air that long would qualify as one tossed high into the air (my guess is it went at least 15 feet up in the air). The rule does not have any exceptions. It doesn't excuse a young player, or a player who scored to tie an emotional game, or after a score made in the final 5 seconds, or after a sensational individual effort, or after a teammate was taken off the field in a stretcher, etc. The rule says if this happens it is a penalty.

Now there are so many angles to look at this from.

First, the Pac 10 has a problem with its officiating. Oklahoma fans can attest to that. In fact, I can't remember the last time I watched a Pac 10 team playing out of conference where the officials did not have some impact on the outcome of the game. Whether it is making calls at critical times, missing calls at critical times, or calling it inconsistently throughout the game, the refs are having more of a say in the final score than ANY OTHER CONFERENCE'S officials. The other problem with this is that the Pac 10 officiates ALL of its non conference games, either at home or on the road. That leads to the question: will this officiating "blunder" have some carryover into the BYU-UCLA game this weekend? Will payback be on the mind of the Pac 10 officials who ref that game? Also along this line-and I am not one to blame refs, it's a tough business-but they had several no-calls on Washington's final drive. On 2nd and 19, before completing a 20 yard pass, a BYU defensive lineman had a clear path to Jake Locker and was obviously held, after breaking free from the hold, he chased Locker until he was illegally chop-blocked and taken out of the play. Then came the 20-yard completion. A call on either of the illegal blocks, would have made that play void and set up a 2nd and 29 from the 49 with less than 30 seconds left. Several plays later on a fade route into the end zone, a BYU player illegal face-guarded and made contact with the receiver just prior to the ball's arrival. A penalty could have easily been called on that play. On Locker's touchdown run, a BYU linebacker (and leading returning tackler) was in position to make a tackle, or at least slow Locker up and allow time for teammates to make a tackle, before being shoved in the back, illegally, and knocked out of position, allowing Locker to get freely to the outside. A plethora of penalties, that were completely legitimate, would have altered the outcome of the game, or at least the play selection, and made the "controversial" penalty moot. A final thought, the Pac 10 officials made the call against their own team.

Second, the outcome of the game was not decided by the penalty. A 35-yard field goal from straight away is not much more than a chip shot. An hour after this game was over, Sam Swank of Wake Forest hit a 48-yard field goal from the right hash with 3 seconds left to win a game, so it can be done. Washington still had a chance to tie the game with a simple flick of the leg (oh, and some blocking up front wouldn't have hurt). It was not like the touchdown was revoked and they had to score it again.

Third, a block is a block is a block. Whether the snap came from the 3-yard line, the 18-yard line, the 30-yard line, or 3 yards deep in the end zone, that kick was blocked straight down into the ground. It landed 5 yards in front of the kicker. It had NO CHANCE of going in.

Fourth, if Washington had made the extra point, BYU still had a chance of winning the game in overtime. After all, in overtime anything can happen, especially with Washington's porous special teams blocking. It looked like 3 BYU players had a chance to block the kick.

Fifth, in Hollywood they say that any publicity is good publicity. Sportscenter spent over a minute on this game, showing highlights from the game, discussing the outcome, and pointing out that BYU won (though it should have gone to overtime). College Football Final spent over 5 minutes for their segment about the game. I couldn't flip to any sports channel throughout the evening without hearing some discussion about the outcome of this game. I saw the play, heard interviews with people in the NCAA officiating and rules office, interviews with Bronco Mendenhall, Ty Willingham, and Jake Locker, etc. I heard everyone's opinion about the legitimacy, timing, etc. of the call. The last time BYU had this much time on ESPN was when they had a game broadcast on it. BYU won, and every college football fan in America knows. I would argue that the aftermath proves this Hollywood adage: bad publicity hurt the Cougars. Despite winning on the road against a Pac 10 team, BYU dropped from 15 to 18 in the AP Poll (4 teams jumped them) and remained at 15 in the USA Today/Coaches' Poll, though they were leaped by number 16 Oregon (who beat Washington 44-10 last week).

Sixth, if BYU were just another team, say Colorado State for example, and won in the same fashion, would anyone have been talking about it? I'm guessing that no one would have cared because it wouldn't have involved the "most hated non-BCS team in America," according to ESPN.

Seventh, to regain any credibility they had, BYU must win big this weekend against UCLA. If they lose at home to the Bruins, I think people will feel even more strongly that Washington should have won the game. A loss this weekend will count for two losses in the eyes of the voters.

On a side note, and not that I think this fiasco has anything to do with it, but UCLA dropped from the polls, despite not losing. Only one team on the remainder of their schedule is currently ranked, and that game is the last week of the season, so who knows if they will get to play a ranked team this season.

5 games to watch

Here are the top 5 games for non-BCS schools playing BCS schools, in order by importance of a victory (with my predictions at the end). I apologize to the Sun Belt and the WAC, none of their high profile teams are playing BCS teams, and the ones that are have ZERO chance of winning, tough to call that a must win.

1. West Virginia at ECU-a win would be huge, no other way around it. The reason they were able to beat Virginia Tech was because Va Tech had NO offense. West Virginia brings instant offense to the table. They have the potential to score on every play. Even a good showing would bring credibility. As much as I want to think Skip can pull this one off, they don't have a chance. West Virginia 38, ECU 24.

2. Minnesota at Bowling Green-perhaps this is as big a game for the Big East as it is for Bowling Green as they don't want one of their contenders (Pitt) to lose at home to the same team that loses to the worst team in the Big 10. Bowling Green has to follow up its victory at Pitt with a win at home against the cellar dweller Gophers. They should handle this game as Minnesota had to score late at home to beat Northern Illinois University (2-10 last year). Bowling Green 31, Minnesota 20.

3. BYU at Washington-for the non-BCS school with the biggest preseason hype, this is an absolute must win. The rest of the non-BCS teams need this one too, especially the MWC. To eke out a victory against a bottom 3 Pac 10 team won't do the charm either. BYU has not had success on the road out of conference under Bronco Mendenhall. They are winless so far going into his fourth year. Lucky for them, they get a bad Washington team coming off a humiliating loss to Oregon and are prepping for another beat down next week against Oklahoma. If they can hold Locker to anything under 200 rushing yards, they win this game. BYU 34, Washington 17.

4. Texas A&M at New Mexico-for a team that wants to compete in the MWC, they can't lose to A&M. After all, these Aggies hosted a mid-level Sun Belt team last week and lost without giving up a touchdown. After laying an egg at home last week against another Texas team (TCU), they are hoping for a little better effort. They'll need more than 3 points, though. Unfortunately, the J-Train (Javorskie Lane-A&M's running back) is as heavy as any defensive lineman for the Lobos. If he can't get off against New Mexico, then A&M's season is over, I think he will then. Texas A&M 24, New Mexico 13.

5. South Florida at Central Florida-when South Florida moved to the Big East, they were a mid-level C-USA team. Now all of a sudden they are ranked and were in the National Championship discussion last year? I think Central Florida has the talent to remind South Florida they aren't that far removed from their days of mediocrity in a mediocre conference. This would also be a big statement for the C-USA, maybe not as big as ECU-Virginia Tech last week. Also, I am not including the Southern Miss-Auburn game. A win would be nice, but VERY unlikely. South Florida 28, UCF 27.

Alternates:
Buffalo at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh 31, Buffalo 10. I still don't buy into the Pitt hype but, it's Buffalo, even when they have things going the right way, they don't belong on the same field with Pitt.
UConn at Temple: Temple 27, UConn 24. I don't buy into the Temple hype either, but I picked Pitt last week, so let's go 0 for 2 picking the teams that I think are overrated.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Week 1 Part II

The University of Utah, hail to the victors...(University of Michigan Fight Song for those of you who didn't know):

The Good:
Offense: Passed for over 300 yards. Completed over 60% of their passes. Scored 25 points on what many thought would be one of the best defenses in the Big 10.
Defense: Allowed only one possession of over 35 yards. Forced 8 punts. Held the University of Michigan to 203 yards at their own place. Stopped Michigan on the important plays and possessions (2 point conversion and potential game-winning drive in final two minutes). Forced 3 turnovers.
Special teams: 4 for 4 on field goals. Sakoda averaged 47 yards per punt.
Miscellaneous: Won in the big house. Huge time of possession disparity. Earned a ranking because of their performance.

The Bad:
Offense: Averaged less than 1 yard per carry. 3 total yards and 2 fumbles in the second half.
Defense: Not a whole lot of bad, really. They gave up as many yards rushing as they got?
Special teams: Blocked punt. Fumble on a punt return that led to a Michigan TD.
Miscellaneous: They always get up for the big game. This is further proof of that but doesn't tell us anything about whether they can step up against the CSU's, SDSU's, and UNLV's on the schedule. Even after this game, the national media focused on how bad the situation is at Michigan, not how good the situation is at Utah.

The Ugly:
A 4th quarter meltdown that included a blocked punt and a fumble. The Utes have lost games because of these types of mistakes in the past. They seem to have a knack for clutching defeat from the jaws of victory. Perhaps even more disconcerting than that is the continued inability to make any sort of half-time adjustments. This nonexistent adjusting kept Michigan in the game long enough to capitalize on Utah's mistakes and put the outcome in doubt.

The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10

This is a tough week to select the top 10 after every conference had a victory over a BCS opponent. Arkansas State's W over Texas A&M was probably the most surprising, followed closely by Louisiana Tech over Mississippi State. I think this weekend showed that Conference USA, at least at the top of the conference, is closing the gap with the WAC and the MWC as the top non-BCS league. The gap was pretty wide, though, to begin with and they have only started closing the gap.

1. Fresno State-I'm going to call their victory the best for the non-BCS this week. You could easily argue that ECU's win was bigger, better opponent, etc. However, this was a decisive victory, on the road, on the opposite coastline, on a holiday, against what most people consider a quality opponent. They stepped up in red zone D, the offense got going (in the second half), and the special teams were sound, though unspectacular. They may have a short stint at the top as Wisconsin rolls into town on the 13th.
2. BYU-they had a bad 3rd quarter but pulled it together in the 4th, which shows that they can overcome adversity. The defense was solid. The offense moved the ball with ease. The special teams needs some work, but it definitely has a feel of excitement they haven't had in Provo in a long time. With a win at Washington this weekend, they'll take back the top spot. A loss, however, and we'll have to see how far they get dropped.
3. Utah-they kind of backed into a victory in the Big House. However, it is still a victory in the Big House. Athletically, they are as good as any non-BCS team. Coaching continues to be a question mark after that second half. They'll probably get to 7-0 without too much of a problem, as most of the next 6 games are "payback" games, where they always perform well. It's CSU and New Mexico that will probably give the Utes their next real challenge.
4. East Carolina-I think they had a great day against a possibly/probably over-rated VTech team. The offense exceeded my expectations after the loss of their starting halfback in the preseason, using the running back by committee strategy. The defense did what it needed to do against an out-of-sorts-but-still-talented Hokey-Pokey offense. The kick block obviously was the difference in the game. I had them getting to 7 wins again this season, but with this victory, I see 8 as a good possibility with 9 being the limit. Before I really invite them into the BCS-Buster discussion, let's see how they perform against West Virginia (a team with a real offense) and on the road, with games against the likes of NC State, Virginia, Central Florida, and Southern Mississippi. I think they'll get blown out this week, but I have to give them props for taking down a big dawg from the top of the ACC.
5. Tulsa-just did what it does. Score points, play a LITTLE defense, and win games. They start the season at the top of the conference with a W on the road against UAB. With a win at an improved North Texas team (and an ECU loss), they'll probably move back to number 4.
6. Bowling Green-I wasn't ready to jump on the Pitt bandwagon and I'm not really jumping onto the Bowling Green one with their victory. It was impressive to go to Pitt, come back from down 14 and respond defensively like they did. Pitt only managed 3 points in the final 40 minutes of the game. However, Bowling Green only managed 254 yards and gave up nearly 400. That won't win games, even in the MAC.
7. Boise State-score points, play defense, and prove that you have fully made the transition from I-AA to I-A by trouncing someone you used to have competitive games against. Tough to tell much about the Broncos because of competition level, but they did thrash them soundly. They've got Bowling Green coming to town in two weeks, so that should establish a little bit of a pecking order in the top 10 (assuming BGSU can survive against Minnesota this week).
8. Louisiana Tech-they beat an SEC team. They did what Hawaii has had an opportunity (but not a chance) to do its last two games. It wasn't pretty, but you gotta give a little love to LA Tech. This will probably be their last showing in this poll.
9. Central Michigan-had a bit of a lackluster showing against Eastern Illinois but still got the job done. They've got Georgia this week. Good luck. Play a bit better if you don't want to get embarrassed.
10. Arkansas State-at Kyle Field, against the 12th man, just a few short hours after yell practice, without scoring a single touchdown. A thing of beauty. They've got one more win before the going gets tough. I still think they'll have a rough go to get bowl eligible and will have an even tougher time getting a bowl game to invite them.

The good, the bad, the ugly: Week 1, Part I

After watching as much as I could from the 3 big Mountain West games (UNI @BYU, Utah @Michigan, and TCU @New Mexico), here is my breakdown of 2 of the teams:

New Mexico (this one is easy):
The Good: we learned exactly what New Mexico is this year.
The Bad: what, exactly, we learned about New Mexico. They are a pretender, perhaps they'll even be demoted to spoiler.
The Ugly: in a league where the conference champ is undefeated in conference play more times than not, losing your first conference game pretty well eliminates you from competition, and they haven't even played BYU (at BYU) or Utah (at home) yet. This is especially true when it was one of your 4 conference home games.

BYU:
The Good: Defense: take out two plays and BYU's defense held Northern Iowa to just over 200 yards and no points. Offense: Max Hall and the passing game were sharp and he showed he can throw it to anyone he wants anytime he wants (486 yards with completions to 8 different players and he didn't even complete a pass to receivers listed 3-5 on the depth chart). Special Teams: They averaged over 33 yards per kickoff return and about 5 on punt returns.
The Bad: Defense: you can't take away those two plays, which went for over 140 yards and led to 10 points. Also, third down defense could use major improvement (this is where the plethora of talent but lack of experience comes in: great on first and second down, poor on third). Offense: While the passing game was clicking, the running game did not look real stellar (except for Unga) and both potential back-up RBs fumbled and looked lackluster when they weren't dropping the ball. In the passing game there were a couple of blind-side hits due to missed blocks by the left tackle (it appears that the torch has been passed from one Reynolds to the other!). Special Teams: a poor decision to fair catch a punt on the 5 led to a defensive score for UNI. On the ensuing kickoff, another poor decision resulted in a penalty and poor field position again. 5 yards per punt return will not get the job done.
The Ugly: Four turnovers against an FCS opponent, at home, does not bode well for future tests, at home or on the road. Rushing for less than 100 yards and under 3 yards/carry is also troublesome, especially considering the huge size advantage BYU had upfront (though UNI did stack the box with 8 or 9, practically daring them to throw for nearly 500 yards). Two plays for over 60 yards and falling victim to the trick play again is a painful reminder of the Tulsa game last year. It was a 10-point game in the second half so the 2nd and 3rd team guys didn't get the game experience they should have received, given the opponent. When depth is the main difference between you and other top-tier teams, losing an opportunity to develop it could be the difference between the quest for perfection and the quest for second place.