Selection
I really don't have any beef with the teams selected to be in the tournament. I stated over the weekend that I really wanted to see Iona in the bracket over the likes of Seton Hall, NC State, or even Drexel, so I like the choice though many others don't. I would rather see UW (Pac 12 regular season champ) over NC State (5th place in an extremely top-heavy ACC). Great job by the Committee
Play-In Screw Up
I really think the tournament made mistakes when it came to the play-in. One, how did NC State avoid the play-in game? But that's the side of me that wasn't sure they should be in the tournament, period, so. Two, how did the second play-in game move down to the 14-seed line? I recognize that the tournament committee doesn't like to have to "cater" to BYU, but why punish Iona similarly? How could you not "fit" them in on any of the 13-seed lines or the 12-seed, where most people would agree they belong? It isn't tough to argue the 4 teams in the play-in game shouldn't necessarily be there, although I personally would say Cal probably shouldn't be involved. However, NC State not only avoided the play-in game but got seeded a whole group higher than those in the play-in game.
Lot of Jacked Up Seeds
Which brings me to my biggest beef with the bracket: seeding. There are a lot of baffling seeding decisions, the most puzzling to me was Colorado as an 11, when they finished 6th in a conference that only placed one other team in the field? Typically, that's a 13-seed all the way. If they are an 11, that would theoretically mean that they would have made the tournament even had they lost their conference tourney. That is just simply not the case. There are a lot of teams that are higher than they would seem to deserve. I've already highlighted my complaints about NC State's seed. UNLV started the season great, but had a rough last month of the season, yet mustered a 6 seed as the 3rd place team in the MWC that lost on their home court in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Texas probably should have been closer to a play-in type game as well, along with Xavier, but they got 11 and 10 seeds, respectively. Connecticut played a tough schedule, and they even won a couple of those tough games, but a 9-seed as a reward for that? I wonder if the Committee Chair being a former UConn AD had anything to do with that seeding? St. Louis and Alabama were other 9's that may have gotten a little extra love from the Committee.
Teams that are potentially too low: Long Beach State, Florida, St. Mary's, and obviously I feel that Iona/BYU as a 14 is too low. Now, with that said, every team in the tournament has an opportunity to play and prove if they were overseeded or underseeded. Win and prove the critics wrong, lose and people like me will say: see?
The Bracket Itself
I don't see a lot of major advantages for the 5-8 seeds. Any one of them could lose their first game. Any one of them could go to the Sweet 16. This bracket, at least to the Sweet 16, is about as wide open as I can recall. It should be fun to fill this thing out.
As far as potential surprise teams, I have a few on my mind. Obviously, because I was such an Iona fan, I would say them, but Marquette (and first, potentially BYU) are a huge EARLY obstacle for them, but if they can swing it, I could certainly see them giving Mizzou a run for their money. I like Colorado's draw against an overachieving UNLV team and then matching up against a very familiar Baylor team. I like Purdue's draw with St. Mary's and Kansas, both are teams they could beat. Cal could make some noise as well, but winning three games in 5 days against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams may be too much to ask of them.
Thoughts on Iona
I have watched a couple Iona games this year and was quite impressed with them, hence my hoping that they would make the tournament and be given a chance. They have a very athletic, but undersized, PF, with enough skill to run the fast break. He doesn't stretch the defense necessarily with good outside shooting, but he'll be a tough guard for BYU.
I expect BYU to play a lot of zone to keep Iona's guards out of the lane. Iona can shoot. I think they are very similar to St. Mary's offensively: they don't get much from their post play, but they get enough; most of their points come from the drive or the drive and kick-out for open outside shots. BYU didn't fare well against St. Mary's this year and I don't anticipate they will match up well against Iona. On paper, BYU would seem to be the favorite, but on the court, this BYU team is just too church ball to take on a scrappy, high-scoring Iona team. Just my initial thoughts, maybe I'll change my tune before tomorrow night.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Mo's Final Answer on the Bracket
1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State
2-Kansas, Missouri, Ohio State, Duke
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
7-Creighton, Temple, Memphis, Gonzaga
8-SDSU, UNLV, Purdue, Virginia
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, Texas
12- BYU, VCU; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, Xavier
13-Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont
14-St. Bonaventure, Ohio, Davidson, Montana
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky
2-Kansas, Missouri, Ohio State, Duke
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
7-Creighton, Temple, Memphis, Gonzaga
8-SDSU, UNLV, Purdue, Virginia
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, Texas
12- BYU, VCU; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, Xavier
13-Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont
14-St. Bonaventure, Ohio, Davidson, Montana
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky
What Might The Bracket Look Like on Sunday?
I think there's a lot of hype that goes into Championship Week, especially at ESPN with "Joey Brackets" and elsewhere, where everyone throws in their two cents, so here's mine. First, it looks like I was wrong about at least one thing, perhaps two. Colorado State, an 11-loss MWC team will likely make the tournament and set the record for the worst at-large MWC team ever, edging out a 24-8 UNLV team from a few years back. I said no chance a few weeks ago, but with the expanded field and the increasing parody in college basketball, I'll go ahead and eat my crow on that one. Second, BYU seemed solidly in the field at one point, but, while I still believe they hear their name on Selection Sunday, it's likely as one of the last two teams to NOT play in a play-in, or actually in the play-in game instead of being a "comfortable" 11-seed where I thought/hoped they'd land a week ago.
Also, I believe the "experts" put too much emphasis on conference tournaments. Last season, it seemed very clear (to me at least) that the Committee valued the regular season immensely more than runs, or early losses, in conference tournaments. The committee didn't appear to sort the bubble teams by their performance in conference tournaments, as Lunardi and others have continuously indicated is the case this week (with his Bracketology updates every few hours as tournament games finished). Seton Hall or Mississippi State won't necessarily miss the field because of early losses in their tournaments. NC State or Texas won't necessarily get into the field b/c they pulled off an upset in their conference tournament and USF didn't.
One final thought, the Committee included two mid-majors in the play-in games last season. Neither of the two seemed to the "experts" to fit in the tournament, which would seem to favor Drexel and Iona over other potential bubble teams. The Committee tried and failed on UAB last year, but definitely hit on VCU, so I think they take their chances with at least one this year, even if it doesn't "fit." That's one interesting thing I'm looking at: do Drexel and Iona get chances in play-in games or will high majors like Washington, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State get the nod?
The Pac 12 was guaranteed to "steal" a bid today, which Colorado certainly did, but for the most part, conference tournaments have gone about as predicted. St. Bonaventure gets a shot at Xavier which would steal a bid (I think Xavier will make it either way, but for them it may be the difference of a play-in game or not).
So, here's my thoughts on the seeding:
1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State (I think the winner of Big Ten Title game takes the fourth 1-seed over KU or Mizzou, and I'm picking OSU to win that game)
2-Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke (KU won the Big XII regular season crown and Mizzou won the Big XII conference tourney title, but I think the fourth #1 seed will go to a team that won both regular season AND conference tourney title, i.e. the Big Ten Champ, since there was a tie for the regular season crown between the teams playing in the title game)
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville (Louisville winning the Big East title gave them 3 more wins over tourney teams and 1 potential tourney team and probably moves them from a 5 to a 3)
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State (even with a win over UNC on Sunday, I think FSU maxes out at a 4-seed; I'm not sure Murray State actually makes it this high, but 30-1 is 30-1 and I hope the Committee rewards that, especially because they went on the road and played two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season and beat them both)
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's (this is where the bracket really starts to get tricky, because there isn't much difference between the teams in the 5-8 seed range; if Murray State didn't end up as high as four, I'd pick Florida as the team to replace them on the 4-line)
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Gonzaga (Cincinnati picked up two extremely valuable wins in the Big East tourney; Wichita State is the most likely team to rise to a vacancy in the higher seeds if Murray State drops this far; New Mexico was MWC regular and tournament champs, so they get the highest of the MWC seeds in spite of the worst RPI of the four tourney teams)
7-Creighton, UNLV, Memphis, Temple (yes, I recognize these are all mid majors that could be seeded anywhere 5-8; Creighton won their conference tournament; UNLV lost in the semis on their homecourt conference tourney but still did great in a popular MWC; Memphis won their regular season title and then conference tourney title, in Memphis; Temple had an early exit from their conference tourney but had a great season and has a great RPI)
8-SDSU, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia (SDSU could easily be a 6-seed but I don't see any team that I listed ahead of them that I see fit to necessarily push down; Vanderbilt certainly could move up as many as two lines with a win against Kentucky on Sunday, but otherwise, they fall into the 8-9 range we typically see from BCS conference teams that underperform in conference play; this may be reaching a little on Purdue, but I certainly feel they're an 8/9 game team; Virginia is the same as Purdue, they MAY be a 9 seed, but they're playing in the same game either way)
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State (Southern Miss is the most likely from this group to move up in the 8 range, but again, this 8/9 group every year tends to be those teams, mostly from BCS conferences, that showed flashes of brilliance but couldn't put it together for regular season or conference tournament titles which perfectly suits Southern Miss and the rest of these teams)
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State (this may be reaching on both California schools, but given the group of 11s I have, I don't see why these teams couldn't be the last two 10 seeds)
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, BYU (another thing the Committee seems to do is pit mid-majors against each other in 6/11 or 5/12 matchups; a lot of people want Harvard to be higher, and they could be a 10 in place of Cal or LBSU but let's not get nuts here, they needed a Penn collapse to be here and boast losses against some bad schools; I could easily see Texas replacing BYU on this line, but either way, I think Texas and BYU will end up being the last two non-play-in at-large teams)
12- Texas and Xavier, assuming they win their conference tourney, otherwise they join the play-in game group, NC State slides out, and VCU takes Xavier's place on the 12 line; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, NC State (I do firmly believe at least one non-BCS team will make the play-in games; I originally had Mississippi State in here as I thought their entire body of work was potentially better than the Wolfpack, but NC State actually played a few teams in the non-conference and the Committee often rewards a team that challenges itself, even if it costs them an extra loss or two; a week and a half ago, I would have said Mississippi State easy over NC State; in fact, five minutes ago I had MSU in here but...this LAST SPOT is tough, really tough, not just to decide but to pick what I think the Committee will decide; I HOPE the Committee gives the LAST bid to Iona instead of either of those two, but I don't really believe it's going to happen. Of the bubble teams in contention for these play-in games, I firmly believe Iona has the best chance of being this year's VCU and I'd love to see them get that chance: Iona and South Florida for a shot at St. Mary's with UW and Drexel battling it out for a chance to take on the Irish...if only...)
13-VCU, Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State (given this group of 13s, the 4-seeds better watch out, especially with what I deem a pretty weak group of 4 seeds)
14-Belmont, Ohio, Davidson, Montana (if St. Bonaventure's beats Xavier they probably land here, moving either Belmont or Ohio up to the 13 line as VCU moves up to a 12; if the 3 seeds weren't particularly strong this year, any of these four teams would be capable of an upset, as it is, though, I don't see an upset as the 3s are pretty legit this season)
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit (Doug Gottlieb says watch out for Detroit in the tournament, so whatever 2-seed they play, I will instantly move the 2-seed on, IF Detroit ends up with a 15 ahead of UNC-Asheville, which I'm not sold on)
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky (some of these are familiar names in recent NCAA Tournament history, but none of them stand much of a chance this year)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Arizona, Iona. I don't feel like there is anyone to really "get screwed" this season as I believe Colorado (and one other team that escapes me at the moment) was last year. Any of these teams COULD be in the tournament, but I could make a very reasonable argument for any of these teams belonging in the NIT, and even as 2-seeds in that tournament.
Other teams also in consideration for the final at-large bids are Northwestern, Miami, and Ole Miss, but, again, I do not think any of them could feel "screwed" by an NCAA Tournament snub. There is a reason we have the NIT. Any of the last four in or the first seven out exemplify that reason! Some are young, talented but inconsistent teams: they benefit from potentially deep runs in the NIT and the experience of playing in Madison Square Garden (like Alabama and Wichita State which are both single digit seeds in the NCAA this season). Others are veteran teams that just didn't have enough talent to compete with the big guys: their seniors get a chance to go out on the court and get a few more games in front of the home crowd (like Washington State which made a nice run last year but clearly had some rebuilding to do this year).
The NIT is a beautiful thing, and this is why I'm glad expanding the field stopped at 68 instead of 98. It's bad enough some of the teams I've discussed will make the tournament. But could you imagine comparing the resumes of bubble teams such as Illinois, UCLA, and Maryland this season? That's what we would be looking at in a field of 96!
Also, I believe the "experts" put too much emphasis on conference tournaments. Last season, it seemed very clear (to me at least) that the Committee valued the regular season immensely more than runs, or early losses, in conference tournaments. The committee didn't appear to sort the bubble teams by their performance in conference tournaments, as Lunardi and others have continuously indicated is the case this week (with his Bracketology updates every few hours as tournament games finished). Seton Hall or Mississippi State won't necessarily miss the field because of early losses in their tournaments. NC State or Texas won't necessarily get into the field b/c they pulled off an upset in their conference tournament and USF didn't.
One final thought, the Committee included two mid-majors in the play-in games last season. Neither of the two seemed to the "experts" to fit in the tournament, which would seem to favor Drexel and Iona over other potential bubble teams. The Committee tried and failed on UAB last year, but definitely hit on VCU, so I think they take their chances with at least one this year, even if it doesn't "fit." That's one interesting thing I'm looking at: do Drexel and Iona get chances in play-in games or will high majors like Washington, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State get the nod?
The Pac 12 was guaranteed to "steal" a bid today, which Colorado certainly did, but for the most part, conference tournaments have gone about as predicted. St. Bonaventure gets a shot at Xavier which would steal a bid (I think Xavier will make it either way, but for them it may be the difference of a play-in game or not).
So, here's my thoughts on the seeding:
1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State (I think the winner of Big Ten Title game takes the fourth 1-seed over KU or Mizzou, and I'm picking OSU to win that game)
2-Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke (KU won the Big XII regular season crown and Mizzou won the Big XII conference tourney title, but I think the fourth #1 seed will go to a team that won both regular season AND conference tourney title, i.e. the Big Ten Champ, since there was a tie for the regular season crown between the teams playing in the title game)
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville (Louisville winning the Big East title gave them 3 more wins over tourney teams and 1 potential tourney team and probably moves them from a 5 to a 3)
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State (even with a win over UNC on Sunday, I think FSU maxes out at a 4-seed; I'm not sure Murray State actually makes it this high, but 30-1 is 30-1 and I hope the Committee rewards that, especially because they went on the road and played two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season and beat them both)
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's (this is where the bracket really starts to get tricky, because there isn't much difference between the teams in the 5-8 seed range; if Murray State didn't end up as high as four, I'd pick Florida as the team to replace them on the 4-line)
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Gonzaga (Cincinnati picked up two extremely valuable wins in the Big East tourney; Wichita State is the most likely team to rise to a vacancy in the higher seeds if Murray State drops this far; New Mexico was MWC regular and tournament champs, so they get the highest of the MWC seeds in spite of the worst RPI of the four tourney teams)
7-Creighton, UNLV, Memphis, Temple (yes, I recognize these are all mid majors that could be seeded anywhere 5-8; Creighton won their conference tournament; UNLV lost in the semis on their homecourt conference tourney but still did great in a popular MWC; Memphis won their regular season title and then conference tourney title, in Memphis; Temple had an early exit from their conference tourney but had a great season and has a great RPI)
8-SDSU, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia (SDSU could easily be a 6-seed but I don't see any team that I listed ahead of them that I see fit to necessarily push down; Vanderbilt certainly could move up as many as two lines with a win against Kentucky on Sunday, but otherwise, they fall into the 8-9 range we typically see from BCS conference teams that underperform in conference play; this may be reaching a little on Purdue, but I certainly feel they're an 8/9 game team; Virginia is the same as Purdue, they MAY be a 9 seed, but they're playing in the same game either way)
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State (Southern Miss is the most likely from this group to move up in the 8 range, but again, this 8/9 group every year tends to be those teams, mostly from BCS conferences, that showed flashes of brilliance but couldn't put it together for regular season or conference tournament titles which perfectly suits Southern Miss and the rest of these teams)
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State (this may be reaching on both California schools, but given the group of 11s I have, I don't see why these teams couldn't be the last two 10 seeds)
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, BYU (another thing the Committee seems to do is pit mid-majors against each other in 6/11 or 5/12 matchups; a lot of people want Harvard to be higher, and they could be a 10 in place of Cal or LBSU but let's not get nuts here, they needed a Penn collapse to be here and boast losses against some bad schools; I could easily see Texas replacing BYU on this line, but either way, I think Texas and BYU will end up being the last two non-play-in at-large teams)
12- Texas and Xavier, assuming they win their conference tourney, otherwise they join the play-in game group, NC State slides out, and VCU takes Xavier's place on the 12 line; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, NC State (I do firmly believe at least one non-BCS team will make the play-in games; I originally had Mississippi State in here as I thought their entire body of work was potentially better than the Wolfpack, but NC State actually played a few teams in the non-conference and the Committee often rewards a team that challenges itself, even if it costs them an extra loss or two; a week and a half ago, I would have said Mississippi State easy over NC State; in fact, five minutes ago I had MSU in here but...this LAST SPOT is tough, really tough, not just to decide but to pick what I think the Committee will decide; I HOPE the Committee gives the LAST bid to Iona instead of either of those two, but I don't really believe it's going to happen. Of the bubble teams in contention for these play-in games, I firmly believe Iona has the best chance of being this year's VCU and I'd love to see them get that chance: Iona and South Florida for a shot at St. Mary's with UW and Drexel battling it out for a chance to take on the Irish...if only...)
13-VCU, Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State (given this group of 13s, the 4-seeds better watch out, especially with what I deem a pretty weak group of 4 seeds)
14-Belmont, Ohio, Davidson, Montana (if St. Bonaventure's beats Xavier they probably land here, moving either Belmont or Ohio up to the 13 line as VCU moves up to a 12; if the 3 seeds weren't particularly strong this year, any of these four teams would be capable of an upset, as it is, though, I don't see an upset as the 3s are pretty legit this season)
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit (Doug Gottlieb says watch out for Detroit in the tournament, so whatever 2-seed they play, I will instantly move the 2-seed on, IF Detroit ends up with a 15 ahead of UNC-Asheville, which I'm not sold on)
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky (some of these are familiar names in recent NCAA Tournament history, but none of them stand much of a chance this year)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Arizona, Iona. I don't feel like there is anyone to really "get screwed" this season as I believe Colorado (and one other team that escapes me at the moment) was last year. Any of these teams COULD be in the tournament, but I could make a very reasonable argument for any of these teams belonging in the NIT, and even as 2-seeds in that tournament.
Other teams also in consideration for the final at-large bids are Northwestern, Miami, and Ole Miss, but, again, I do not think any of them could feel "screwed" by an NCAA Tournament snub. There is a reason we have the NIT. Any of the last four in or the first seven out exemplify that reason! Some are young, talented but inconsistent teams: they benefit from potentially deep runs in the NIT and the experience of playing in Madison Square Garden (like Alabama and Wichita State which are both single digit seeds in the NCAA this season). Others are veteran teams that just didn't have enough talent to compete with the big guys: their seniors get a chance to go out on the court and get a few more games in front of the home crowd (like Washington State which made a nice run last year but clearly had some rebuilding to do this year).
The NIT is a beautiful thing, and this is why I'm glad expanding the field stopped at 68 instead of 98. It's bad enough some of the teams I've discussed will make the tournament. But could you imagine comparing the resumes of bubble teams such as Illinois, UCLA, and Maryland this season? That's what we would be looking at in a field of 96!
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Mo's Bubble 3/8/2012
As conference tournaments advance, most of us watch closely to see which teams lose and are eliminated (maybe not as close as Joe Lunardi, but he gets paid to do it). Over the past few days, several bubble teams have seen their chances slip as these teams have lost early and often in their conference tournament. As I posted a while back (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-bubble-2262012.html), I had 61 teams that I believed would make the NCAA Tournament, leaving just 7 at-large bids remaining, barring any major upsets in conference tournaments shrinking that number even further. There are two of my 61 that I may slightly doubt at this point in time, but I feel supremely confident in my other 59.
Seton Hall, since I locked them in has gone 1-3, with two losses to teams they had no business losing to: Rutgers and DePaul (a 2-2 record and they could still feel somewhat safe, but alas, the Mo Jinx came back to bite them). Mississippi State I locked in some time ago, figuring that they could beat Georgia at home and win at either LSU or Auburn. Instead, they lost all three of those games before losing to Georgia again in the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, I think they probably still make the tournament, since the Committee has emphasized that wins in November and December count just as much as wins in February and March. Both may be looking at play-in game scenarios at this point. Both could easily be playing in the NIT.
Now, back to those 7 spots and the teams I was considering for them. I was watching the following teams: Xavier, St. Joe's, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
I believe West Virginia and UConn from the Big East get in. USF lost tonight and is in a precarious situation now, especially with several bubble teams still in contention in conference tournaments.
NW, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado all eliminated themselves from at-large contention a while ago, but I hadn't updated my list yet (though some argue NW still had a shot until their loss today: I think they're a feel-good story that people WANT in the tournament but they don't really have the resume to justify it).
Texas scored the biggest bubble win of the day, beating an NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State.
Colorado State, Miami, NC State, UCF, and Arizona also all won on days when others lost, though none of them beat anything resembling a tournament team.
Oregon fell just short in a late comeback against Colorado, as did Washington against Oregon State.
Xavier and St. Joe's play on Friday after a while off. Xavier should be "safely" in the field with one more win. St. Joe's probably needs AT LEAST two (though if they win three they get an automatic bid, so).
Locking in WVU and UConn, that's 63 bids (assuming Seton Hall and Mississippi State truly remain in the field), leaving four remaining. Cal was my only lock from the Pac 12. They are one of the Final Four in the Pac 12 Tournament, but it is extremely possible that one at-large will be taken away by another Pac 12 team (CU split with them in the regular season, and led both games at halftime). I am assuming that the Pac 12 steals a bid, either Arizona or Colorado: 64 bids, leaving just 4 remaining.
Other teams drawing attention lately are Tennessee, Drexel, and Iona (who I thought would just win their conference tourney). If Tennessee doesn't win their conference tournament, they will have 14 losses, and, while I wouldn't put it past the Committee to include them, it seems a bit ridiculous to include a team with that many losses, including 4 to teams outside the top 100. I believe, based on last year's experience, that either Drexel or Iona will make the field as a play-in team, despite not appearing to have as strong of a resume as others. (I personally would like to see BOTH make it, because I believe Iona would have a great chance of having a VCU-like run in this tournament, but it's probably just going to be Drexel making the field). 65 bids: three remaining.
My money would be on Xavier, Colorado State, and Washington. Texas has a legit shot for sure. NC State is right there, especially if they can score a win over Virginia on Friday, which I believe they can do (Miami has a bit more of an uphill battle with Florida State, that is playing for the chance at a 4 seed). However, if Long Beach State doesn't win the Big West tournament, I believe they would make it as an at-large over any of these teams.
After looking this over, maybe Seton Hall and Mississippi State won't make the tournament, maybe Drexel either. These bids are really coming down to the wire. It's going to be tight.
Seton Hall, since I locked them in has gone 1-3, with two losses to teams they had no business losing to: Rutgers and DePaul (a 2-2 record and they could still feel somewhat safe, but alas, the Mo Jinx came back to bite them). Mississippi State I locked in some time ago, figuring that they could beat Georgia at home and win at either LSU or Auburn. Instead, they lost all three of those games before losing to Georgia again in the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, I think they probably still make the tournament, since the Committee has emphasized that wins in November and December count just as much as wins in February and March. Both may be looking at play-in game scenarios at this point. Both could easily be playing in the NIT.
Now, back to those 7 spots and the teams I was considering for them. I was watching the following teams: Xavier, St. Joe's, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
I believe West Virginia and UConn from the Big East get in. USF lost tonight and is in a precarious situation now, especially with several bubble teams still in contention in conference tournaments.
NW, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado all eliminated themselves from at-large contention a while ago, but I hadn't updated my list yet (though some argue NW still had a shot until their loss today: I think they're a feel-good story that people WANT in the tournament but they don't really have the resume to justify it).
Texas scored the biggest bubble win of the day, beating an NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State.
Colorado State, Miami, NC State, UCF, and Arizona also all won on days when others lost, though none of them beat anything resembling a tournament team.
Oregon fell just short in a late comeback against Colorado, as did Washington against Oregon State.
Xavier and St. Joe's play on Friday after a while off. Xavier should be "safely" in the field with one more win. St. Joe's probably needs AT LEAST two (though if they win three they get an automatic bid, so).
Locking in WVU and UConn, that's 63 bids (assuming Seton Hall and Mississippi State truly remain in the field), leaving four remaining. Cal was my only lock from the Pac 12. They are one of the Final Four in the Pac 12 Tournament, but it is extremely possible that one at-large will be taken away by another Pac 12 team (CU split with them in the regular season, and led both games at halftime). I am assuming that the Pac 12 steals a bid, either Arizona or Colorado: 64 bids, leaving just 4 remaining.
Other teams drawing attention lately are Tennessee, Drexel, and Iona (who I thought would just win their conference tourney). If Tennessee doesn't win their conference tournament, they will have 14 losses, and, while I wouldn't put it past the Committee to include them, it seems a bit ridiculous to include a team with that many losses, including 4 to teams outside the top 100. I believe, based on last year's experience, that either Drexel or Iona will make the field as a play-in team, despite not appearing to have as strong of a resume as others. (I personally would like to see BOTH make it, because I believe Iona would have a great chance of having a VCU-like run in this tournament, but it's probably just going to be Drexel making the field). 65 bids: three remaining.
My money would be on Xavier, Colorado State, and Washington. Texas has a legit shot for sure. NC State is right there, especially if they can score a win over Virginia on Friday, which I believe they can do (Miami has a bit more of an uphill battle with Florida State, that is playing for the chance at a 4 seed). However, if Long Beach State doesn't win the Big West tournament, I believe they would make it as an at-large over any of these teams.
After looking this over, maybe Seton Hall and Mississippi State won't make the tournament, maybe Drexel either. These bids are really coming down to the wire. It's going to be tight.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
BYU-Gonzaga Preview, 3/3/2012
BYU and Gonzaga split the regular season series, with BYU winning by 10 at home in a high-scoring fast-paced affair and Gonzaga grinding the play out at home in an 11-point win. Gonzaga travels well, but so does BYU (well, really, they have fans everywhere so they don't even need to "travel"). I also envision fans of both Saint Mary's and San Francisco will be pulling for BYU, after the Zags have dominated conference play for a decade and have earned the ire of all fans in the league at some point over that stretch. So, slight home-court edge for BYU.
As far as the teams: Gonzaga is a bit less diverse offensively than BYU is when at full-strength. However, BYU isn't at full strength with Hartsock's knee injury and sharp-shooter Stephen Rogers never really recovering from mid-season surgery. Gonzaga shoots the ball with a higher percentage, but BYU scores more points, mostly a result of combining their fast pace with offensive rebounding and sharing the basketball. Gonzaga tightens the screws down in their halfcourt defense a lot better than BYU. They really prefer a nice slow, halfcourt, out-execute you type of game.
San Diego didn't really challenge Hartsock on the defensive end very much. Gonzaga will go right at him. Elias Harris scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the meeting in Spokane without Hartsock, so Harris will look to be aggressive and test Hartsock's knee, and try to force BYU into more zone defense than they would like to play, which opens up their catch-and-shoot guards. Harris can also more aggressively guard Hartsock on the defensive end than USD, as he won't have to fear Hartsock taking him off the dribble because of the large athleticism (and health) advantage Harris has. If Harris neutralizes Hartsock it's game over, unless someone else can step up. One thing is for sure: BYU can't use Zylstra at the 4 for too long on Saturday night: Harris will absolutely eat him up.
After a 12-point performance tonight giving him back-to-back double-figure games, perhaps that man to step up is Brock Zylstra? No. Not a chance. As I highlighted earlier in the week, he has shot 23% from the field, 9% from three, in BYU's losses and didn't score in double figures in a game against any team in the RPI top 100, except for Weber State at home in early December.
Actually, I think the most likely candidate to have a chance at a big night is Anson Winder. Gonzaga had to see how Carlino failed to handle the pressure tonight and try to give him all they can, but they don't really have the guards to pester him for 40 minutes (Marquise Carter COULD but he's such a liability on the offensive end...), so he will likely see some double teams or traps. They will not leave Davies or Hartsock, which leaves Zylstra, Abouo, and Winder as the open guys (and I don't think Abouo's head is right for some reason right now). Winder struggled tonight, going 1-5 from the field. But he's from Vegas and he'll probably feel more comfortable on Saturday. I think perhaps the nerves of playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season were certainly there, and those will be gone the second time around on Saturday night. Usually in these tournament type settings, a guy has a big night one night and doesn't the next, a guy has a poor night shooting and responds with a great night on Day Two. Winder is that X-Factor guy that can give BYU that kind of night. Well, only if BYU is serious about winning.
Gonzaga wisely chose to schedule a meaningless blowout win on Monday night. With the bye and a week between games, it's good for them to get a little bit of a tune-up the week of the tournament. This isn't their first rodeo. Mark Few knows how to best handle his team in this scenario. His team will be prepared and they will be rested. But, on the flip side, they start a few freshmen and bring a few sophomores off the bench. How will those guys respond in their first tournament game? Thus far, the WCC tournament has shown some stellar performances by freshmen and some reasonably lousy ones. If Pangos and Bell come out of the gate swinging, if Dower and Stockton come off the bench and play beyond their years, BYU has their hands full. If one or two, or all, of those guys struggle to find their footing in their first taste of elimination basketball, BYU could jump out early and make it a struggle for the Zags to keep up with their pace and ability to score.
Ultimately, the matchup Gonzaga wants to exploit is Harris-Hartsock. BYU doesn't really have an offense where they can exploit any mismatches except Carlino and the post players. Gonzaga doesn't really have anyone that can guard Abouo, but he's shown such a lack of discipline and a propensity to get in foul trouble, it's tough to COUNT on exploiting his matchup. The one I look to see is Hartsock. Can he guard Harris so BYU can stay in the man-to-man longer against Gonzaga? Can he score on Harris and be a valid scoring option for at least 20 minutes? I like his heart and toughness. But he's clearly playing hurt and, man, Harris dominated the game in Spokane. If Hartsock was 100%, I'd like BYU's chances, but he's not and I don't. BYU's freshmen don't seem to have as much poise as Gonzaga's, and, even with the one-game advantage in terms of tournament experience, that may prove to be as crucial a comparison as Hartsock and Harris: Carlino and Winder vs. Pangos and Bell.
This game certainly could swing the Cougars way, but I just don't think BYU has the horses right now to contend with a resolute Zags squad out to avenge their loss of regular season conference supremacy. 11 years in a row, they were on top of the conference standings. This year they aren't. They'll be out for blood, unfortunately for BYU. Gonzaga 68, BYU 62.
As far as the teams: Gonzaga is a bit less diverse offensively than BYU is when at full-strength. However, BYU isn't at full strength with Hartsock's knee injury and sharp-shooter Stephen Rogers never really recovering from mid-season surgery. Gonzaga shoots the ball with a higher percentage, but BYU scores more points, mostly a result of combining their fast pace with offensive rebounding and sharing the basketball. Gonzaga tightens the screws down in their halfcourt defense a lot better than BYU. They really prefer a nice slow, halfcourt, out-execute you type of game.
San Diego didn't really challenge Hartsock on the defensive end very much. Gonzaga will go right at him. Elias Harris scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the meeting in Spokane without Hartsock, so Harris will look to be aggressive and test Hartsock's knee, and try to force BYU into more zone defense than they would like to play, which opens up their catch-and-shoot guards. Harris can also more aggressively guard Hartsock on the defensive end than USD, as he won't have to fear Hartsock taking him off the dribble because of the large athleticism (and health) advantage Harris has. If Harris neutralizes Hartsock it's game over, unless someone else can step up. One thing is for sure: BYU can't use Zylstra at the 4 for too long on Saturday night: Harris will absolutely eat him up.
After a 12-point performance tonight giving him back-to-back double-figure games, perhaps that man to step up is Brock Zylstra? No. Not a chance. As I highlighted earlier in the week, he has shot 23% from the field, 9% from three, in BYU's losses and didn't score in double figures in a game against any team in the RPI top 100, except for Weber State at home in early December.
Actually, I think the most likely candidate to have a chance at a big night is Anson Winder. Gonzaga had to see how Carlino failed to handle the pressure tonight and try to give him all they can, but they don't really have the guards to pester him for 40 minutes (Marquise Carter COULD but he's such a liability on the offensive end...), so he will likely see some double teams or traps. They will not leave Davies or Hartsock, which leaves Zylstra, Abouo, and Winder as the open guys (and I don't think Abouo's head is right for some reason right now). Winder struggled tonight, going 1-5 from the field. But he's from Vegas and he'll probably feel more comfortable on Saturday. I think perhaps the nerves of playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season were certainly there, and those will be gone the second time around on Saturday night. Usually in these tournament type settings, a guy has a big night one night and doesn't the next, a guy has a poor night shooting and responds with a great night on Day Two. Winder is that X-Factor guy that can give BYU that kind of night. Well, only if BYU is serious about winning.
Gonzaga wisely chose to schedule a meaningless blowout win on Monday night. With the bye and a week between games, it's good for them to get a little bit of a tune-up the week of the tournament. This isn't their first rodeo. Mark Few knows how to best handle his team in this scenario. His team will be prepared and they will be rested. But, on the flip side, they start a few freshmen and bring a few sophomores off the bench. How will those guys respond in their first tournament game? Thus far, the WCC tournament has shown some stellar performances by freshmen and some reasonably lousy ones. If Pangos and Bell come out of the gate swinging, if Dower and Stockton come off the bench and play beyond their years, BYU has their hands full. If one or two, or all, of those guys struggle to find their footing in their first taste of elimination basketball, BYU could jump out early and make it a struggle for the Zags to keep up with their pace and ability to score.
Ultimately, the matchup Gonzaga wants to exploit is Harris-Hartsock. BYU doesn't really have an offense where they can exploit any mismatches except Carlino and the post players. Gonzaga doesn't really have anyone that can guard Abouo, but he's shown such a lack of discipline and a propensity to get in foul trouble, it's tough to COUNT on exploiting his matchup. The one I look to see is Hartsock. Can he guard Harris so BYU can stay in the man-to-man longer against Gonzaga? Can he score on Harris and be a valid scoring option for at least 20 minutes? I like his heart and toughness. But he's clearly playing hurt and, man, Harris dominated the game in Spokane. If Hartsock was 100%, I'd like BYU's chances, but he's not and I don't. BYU's freshmen don't seem to have as much poise as Gonzaga's, and, even with the one-game advantage in terms of tournament experience, that may prove to be as crucial a comparison as Hartsock and Harris: Carlino and Winder vs. Pangos and Bell.
This game certainly could swing the Cougars way, but I just don't think BYU has the horses right now to contend with a resolute Zags squad out to avenge their loss of regular season conference supremacy. 11 years in a row, they were on top of the conference standings. This year they aren't. They'll be out for blood, unfortunately for BYU. Gonzaga 68, BYU 62.
Sometimes, Survival Is Enough: BYU 73, USD 68
I think BYU fans got a glimpse of what their team can be like during NCAA Tournament play against San Diego on Friday night. And it wasn't always pretty. Carlino couldn't handle the continued high pressure defense applied by San Diego. Davies couldn't buy a free throw down the stretch. The bench (not counting Noah Hartsock who came off the bench due to his injury), in spite of massive foul trouble from three starters, didn't give BYU anything. Those are recipes for disaster. However, BYU avoided that disaster against what should have been an out-manned San Diego team. Sometimes, that's really what it's all about in conference tournaments: survive and advance.
In Carlino's defense, even the great Jimmer Fredette took 2.5 seasons to really adjust to constant, and extremely high, pressure defenses. It's the reason BYU hadn't gone to the Sweet Sixteen in 30 years: they've never had guards that could handle that. Guys have bad games at the free throw line and Davies is a much improved Free Throw shooter this season but he's still not great, so it isn't that surprising that he has a poor night from the line in a tight game against a desperate opponent. I think he felt he should have shot more free throws throughout the course of the game, which may have added to his frustration and lack of success. The bench has been a reasonably weak spot since Rogers went down. Cusick logged a lot of minutes tonight, without really impacting the game positively. Nate Austin gave a few quality minutes, grabbed an offensive rebound and put it back in, and had several assists, but had no impact on the defensive side of the ball, which is why he only played a dozen or so minutes. The bench logged a few minutes from other players, but those were extremely brief cameos by Stephen Rogers and Josh Sharp.
Again, they survived their first taste of tournament play, and maybe that will help them Saturday against Gonzaga...having a game under their belts seemed to help San Francisco today (which upset Loyola Marymount) and also San Diego which kept pace with BYU for all 40 minutes.
Hartsock was extremely efficient, grabbing 5 rebounds, getting two huge blocks in the second half with Davies sitting out in foul trouble, going 8-13 from the field, and hitting two game-clinching free throws with 6 seconds left. Zylstra came out on fire, and faded in the second half, much like we saw from Jackson Emery in tournament play last season. Davies was a man on the offensive end but didn't play well on defense the entire night. I think the post defense will be a critical component against Gonzaga on Saturday. The somewhat shoddy officiating on Friday may actually help BYU on Saturday: Carlino, Davies, and Abouo missed significant minutes because of foul trouble, so they may not be as tired. Perhaps BYU will find similar magic on Friday as the other (supposed-to-be more tired) teams on Friday: hardened by having already played an elimination game. They will need some magic, because a repeat performance of Friday night will send them home Saturday night.
In Carlino's defense, even the great Jimmer Fredette took 2.5 seasons to really adjust to constant, and extremely high, pressure defenses. It's the reason BYU hadn't gone to the Sweet Sixteen in 30 years: they've never had guards that could handle that. Guys have bad games at the free throw line and Davies is a much improved Free Throw shooter this season but he's still not great, so it isn't that surprising that he has a poor night from the line in a tight game against a desperate opponent. I think he felt he should have shot more free throws throughout the course of the game, which may have added to his frustration and lack of success. The bench has been a reasonably weak spot since Rogers went down. Cusick logged a lot of minutes tonight, without really impacting the game positively. Nate Austin gave a few quality minutes, grabbed an offensive rebound and put it back in, and had several assists, but had no impact on the defensive side of the ball, which is why he only played a dozen or so minutes. The bench logged a few minutes from other players, but those were extremely brief cameos by Stephen Rogers and Josh Sharp.
Again, they survived their first taste of tournament play, and maybe that will help them Saturday against Gonzaga...having a game under their belts seemed to help San Francisco today (which upset Loyola Marymount) and also San Diego which kept pace with BYU for all 40 minutes.
Hartsock was extremely efficient, grabbing 5 rebounds, getting two huge blocks in the second half with Davies sitting out in foul trouble, going 8-13 from the field, and hitting two game-clinching free throws with 6 seconds left. Zylstra came out on fire, and faded in the second half, much like we saw from Jackson Emery in tournament play last season. Davies was a man on the offensive end but didn't play well on defense the entire night. I think the post defense will be a critical component against Gonzaga on Saturday. The somewhat shoddy officiating on Friday may actually help BYU on Saturday: Carlino, Davies, and Abouo missed significant minutes because of foul trouble, so they may not be as tired. Perhaps BYU will find similar magic on Friday as the other (supposed-to-be more tired) teams on Friday: hardened by having already played an elimination game. They will need some magic, because a repeat performance of Friday night will send them home Saturday night.
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