BYU's "Offense" vs. UNLV's "Defense"
I use both of those terms very loosely.
I would fully anticipate BYU to come out and throw the ball around a little bit in the first half. Bronco talked a lot about balance during the bye, and to do that, they must throw more, and throw more up the field. BYU is dominant enough and UNLV is weak enough that if that strategy does not work initially, they can shift their focus to the run game in the second half. I would anticipate Jake Heaps will probably get between 25-30 attempts this game. This is still not the BYU that most of us are accustomed to, but it will be less boring than the few previous games with over 50 rushing attempts. I think...
I also anticipate the offense to have more general success than they have been. UNLV is 118th in rushing defense (221 yards/game), 54th in passing defense (206 yards/game), and 113th in scoring defense (37.88 points/game). The only reason UNLV's pass defense is not as bad is because they are trailing so much, teams just run the ball against them in the second half, which is also one reason the run defense is so bad. UNLV doesn't get pressure on the QB and doesn't play in the backfield, ranking 98th in the country in sacks and 119th in tackles for loss. So BYU will see a lot more 3rd and shorts and 2nd and take-a-shots than they have been. UNLV is not good at taking the ball away, which should help this BYU team that has been so good at giving the ball away.
BYU should be able to put 4-6 scores on the board against this abysmal UNLV team. The question is: will they be field goals or touchdowns? The only game in which UNLV held its opponent under 30 points was at home against New Mexico.
BYU's Defense vs. UNLV's Offense
While BYU is still statistically a pretty bad defense, it is obvious that they have improved since the firing of Jaime Hill. They have moved up at least 20 spots nationally in every defensive category except for sacks and turnovers forced. A week to rest up and heal will help the guys that have been banged up, of which there have been plenty.
The defense has showed renewed life, energy, and focus since Bronco took over defensive responsibilities, and I would anticipate that to be ratcheted up coming off a bye week. I would also anticipate that to be ratcheted up even more since they are playing at home against one of the worst offenses in the country: 103rd in rushing offense, 97th in passing offense, 117th in total offense, and 111th in scoring offense.
UNLV has not scored more than 10 points in any road game this season.
Outlook
Nothing has come easy for BYU to this point in the season. But this is also the easiest opponent to date. BYU comes out fired up out of the locker room and puts some points up, as they did against Wyoming and SDSU. Then they have their typical 2nd quarter collapse. Then they regroup in the locker room, somebody decides to be a leader and gets the guys fired up (I hope it is a player and not Bronco, but BYU fans will take whichever), and they come out with gusto in the second half and put UNLV away early in the 3rd quarter. BYU plays their best game since Washington and beats the UNLV Rebels, 31-10.
I don't disagree with how you got to the 31-10 prediction, I just don't think we can beat anybody by that many points. I was watching the 2009 game last night, and UNLV scored on a kickoff return and a pass play with our MLB chasing their wide receiver (meaning a bown coverage). I don't have confidence that BYU's defense won't make similar mistakes again. I think the gameplan should match the SDSU game, meaning lots of running and I formation. BYU should milk the clock from the opening of the game. This would prevent the UNLV offence from gaining any rhythm, and open up the play action. Since the run will be established, the safeties will not be able to help on the receivers/TEs.
ReplyDeleteAnother point as to why I think it will be closer, is that UNLV tends to play better when the game is in Provo. I suspect that will be the case again this year. So, I will say 24-21 BYU wins. Maybe this will propel me from #2 to #1 on the cougarboard prediction rankings.
Kevin
I am not sure BYU can beat anybody by that many points either. My thought is that this is a different Rebel team and a totally different program than the one coached by a former Ute that gave BYU fits in the past.
ReplyDeleteI also believe the Cougars used the bye week to get amped up for this game and we'll see a little more passion from them. Hopefully that means more big plays and fewer mistakes, but it could go either way...
I have consistently been wrong about BYU this year, so good luck on the Cougarboard prediction!
I keep waiting for them to have a blow out game and they keep disappointing me. However, if they are going to have one this year, this is the game they will do it. I think they will. They will score in the 30's (at least) and hold UNLV in the teens.
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