If the rumors are true (and since the story broke by an outlet not named ESPN, I tend to believe it more), BYU football will travel to Wisconsin next season, in addition to road contests at Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, Hawaii, and Washington State. The home games are currently: Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, and Utah.
That's 10 games scheduled, with two (or three) more to go. Even if you add an FCS school at home and another mediocre-to-bad non-BCS school, it's still a quality schedule. It may not be one of them "famed" SEC schedules (though even that usually includes 3 Sun Belt schools in addition to Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss with 7 or 8 games at home), but I'll take it every day of the week over the old MWC schedules, or the first two Indy schedules. 8 of the 10 are perennial bowl teams, with Utah State and Washington State the others. Utah State did make a bowl last year, and will likely do so again this year. Washington State used to be a top 25 team as often as it wasn't (but it's been a decade since then), and just hired Mike Leach as a head coach.
There are 5 games against teams in BCS conferences, not counting Notre Dame. Boise State and Houston are joining the Big East next season, if you count that. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Hawaii, Washington State, Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, and Utah have played in BCS bowls. Houston was one game short of playing in one last season.
Unfortunately, the 2013 team will be a rebuilding team. Too bad BYU fans couldn't see this year's team play next year's schedule. Looking at the schedule: an undefeated BYU team would make the National Championship game next season, almost regardless of what happens elsewhere (two 13-0 BCS conference champs might have a say, but in any other scenario, I think the Cougars could easily get the nod). I couldn't say that about any other schedule BYU has had in the last 15 years.
Of course, looking at the schedule: BYU's chance at going undefeated will be gone by week 3, if not earlier! Either way: good for BYU and hooray for Independence!
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Closer Look at BYU's 2012 Opponents: #10 at New Mexico State
Last Year: 4-9, biggest win was at (Big Ten team) Minnesota
Starters Gone: Two leading rushers, top QB, 3 of top 4 WRs, top 5 tacklers and 7 of top 8
Starters Returning: 4 on O (2 WR, 2 OL, likely starting QB was starter first three games last year before an injury); 3 on D (DT, 2 LBs)
Last Year vs. BYU: Lost 42-7, tied 7-7 in 2Q before BYU scored 35 straight
Who Contributed vs. BYU in 2011:
Passing: Travaughn Colwell 7-11, 61 yards
Rushing: Austin Franklin 2 for 20 yards; Robert Clay 1 for 10; T. Colwell 6 for minus 23
Receiving: Austin Franklin 8 catches for 66 yards and 1 TD; Kemonte' Bateman 2 for 22
Tackles: Bryan Bonilla 8; Darian Johnson 2
Offense
Last Year New Mexico State had its best offensive output in the 3 years under DeWayne Walker. The 4 wins was also a high. But this season, 65% of the total yards accumulated last season either graduated or left on Mormon missions. There is a lot to replace. In addition, 3 of the offensive linemen are gone. As a result, Coach Walker brought in a lot of JC's to fill holes in the offense.
QB: Andrew Manley was the starter the first three games of last season before getting hurt. He returns and will start for New Mexico State. Travaughn Colwell played a bit last year as well, including attempting 11 passes against BYU.
RB: Robert Clay should be THE guy this year after spending last year behind two seniors. There isn't any experience behind him though.
WR/TE: This is probably the best and most experienced group on the offense, with two returning starters, and two former Pac 12 WRs in the group. There isn't a tremendous amount of size in the group with the biggest WR at 6'2" and all of them under 200 pounds. It's definitely a "speed" bunch, which can cause BYU problems in the open field, if they can get past the OLBs.
OL: This group is highlighted by DaVonte Wallace at LT, who is probably the only pro prospect on the NMSU team right now. The rest of the line is average size, with below average ability. A couple of JC transfers, a couple of returning starters, a couple of young bucks.
Defense
DeWayne Walker came in a few years ago as a defensive coach supposed to change the attitude of this team. If the attitude changed, the results didn't replicate that change. The last three years NMSU is giving up an average of 35 points/game and nearly 450 yards. It is not his fault: he just has no talent and recruiting it to NMSU can't be easy. Coach Walker brought in 5 or 6 JC guys to fill the holes he has on defense. The problem is: he did the same thing each of the last three years. That is the sign of a guy just trying to save his job (or get a bigger/better one) instead of one trying to build a winning program. He may be struggling to do either. NMSU is one of just a handful of schools left in next year's WAC, which begs the question: if Walker gets canned, will NMSU even retain its football program?
DL: This is the best group on the defense, which is good b/c they got run over last year. They only averaged 1.5 sacks a game as well. The group is bigger this season. With two seniors with starting experience and two JC transfers likely to start, NMSU is bound to play a lot of good defense in the first quarter of games. There isn't much depth, though, and that will cost them in quarters 2-4.
LB: They return 2 starters at LB, with another JC transfer likely to start at the third spot. They have to rebuild this part of the defense most years, so having two back is good. There is some talent and speed from the starters, but, as with the DL, there is zero depth. I look for them to have a lot of great first quarter scores.
DB: There is no continuity in the secondary, with all 4 starters from last year gone. The depth chart shows it's possible/likely that 3 of the starters here will be guys brand new to the program. With a somewhat suspect front 7, this is not going to be a great experience for Aggie fans in the back 4.
Overview
The best thing NMSU has going for it against BYU is the bye week right before the game. The OL/DL will get a chance to rest/heal, and gives them a chance to stay with BYU for a half. The home field cannot save the Aggies either. They averaged 15,000 fans last season. If they have 20,000 at the game, it's likely b/c 35% of them are BYU fans.
If BYU has faltered somewhat in the season, say 6-4 or worse, there is a chance to catch BYU napping. However, the talent disparity is ridiculous right now, probably even a bigger gap than last year, when BYU won at home 42-7.
Starters Gone: Two leading rushers, top QB, 3 of top 4 WRs, top 5 tacklers and 7 of top 8
Starters Returning: 4 on O (2 WR, 2 OL, likely starting QB was starter first three games last year before an injury); 3 on D (DT, 2 LBs)
Last Year vs. BYU: Lost 42-7, tied 7-7 in 2Q before BYU scored 35 straight
Who Contributed vs. BYU in 2011:
Passing: Travaughn Colwell 7-11, 61 yards
Rushing: Austin Franklin 2 for 20 yards; Robert Clay 1 for 10; T. Colwell 6 for minus 23
Receiving: Austin Franklin 8 catches for 66 yards and 1 TD; Kemonte' Bateman 2 for 22
Tackles: Bryan Bonilla 8; Darian Johnson 2
Offense
Last Year New Mexico State had its best offensive output in the 3 years under DeWayne Walker. The 4 wins was also a high. But this season, 65% of the total yards accumulated last season either graduated or left on Mormon missions. There is a lot to replace. In addition, 3 of the offensive linemen are gone. As a result, Coach Walker brought in a lot of JC's to fill holes in the offense.
QB: Andrew Manley was the starter the first three games of last season before getting hurt. He returns and will start for New Mexico State. Travaughn Colwell played a bit last year as well, including attempting 11 passes against BYU.
RB: Robert Clay should be THE guy this year after spending last year behind two seniors. There isn't any experience behind him though.
WR/TE: This is probably the best and most experienced group on the offense, with two returning starters, and two former Pac 12 WRs in the group. There isn't a tremendous amount of size in the group with the biggest WR at 6'2" and all of them under 200 pounds. It's definitely a "speed" bunch, which can cause BYU problems in the open field, if they can get past the OLBs.
OL: This group is highlighted by DaVonte Wallace at LT, who is probably the only pro prospect on the NMSU team right now. The rest of the line is average size, with below average ability. A couple of JC transfers, a couple of returning starters, a couple of young bucks.
Defense
DeWayne Walker came in a few years ago as a defensive coach supposed to change the attitude of this team. If the attitude changed, the results didn't replicate that change. The last three years NMSU is giving up an average of 35 points/game and nearly 450 yards. It is not his fault: he just has no talent and recruiting it to NMSU can't be easy. Coach Walker brought in 5 or 6 JC guys to fill the holes he has on defense. The problem is: he did the same thing each of the last three years. That is the sign of a guy just trying to save his job (or get a bigger/better one) instead of one trying to build a winning program. He may be struggling to do either. NMSU is one of just a handful of schools left in next year's WAC, which begs the question: if Walker gets canned, will NMSU even retain its football program?
DL: This is the best group on the defense, which is good b/c they got run over last year. They only averaged 1.5 sacks a game as well. The group is bigger this season. With two seniors with starting experience and two JC transfers likely to start, NMSU is bound to play a lot of good defense in the first quarter of games. There isn't much depth, though, and that will cost them in quarters 2-4.
LB: They return 2 starters at LB, with another JC transfer likely to start at the third spot. They have to rebuild this part of the defense most years, so having two back is good. There is some talent and speed from the starters, but, as with the DL, there is zero depth. I look for them to have a lot of great first quarter scores.
DB: There is no continuity in the secondary, with all 4 starters from last year gone. The depth chart shows it's possible/likely that 3 of the starters here will be guys brand new to the program. With a somewhat suspect front 7, this is not going to be a great experience for Aggie fans in the back 4.
Overview
The best thing NMSU has going for it against BYU is the bye week right before the game. The OL/DL will get a chance to rest/heal, and gives them a chance to stay with BYU for a half. The home field cannot save the Aggies either. They averaged 15,000 fans last season. If they have 20,000 at the game, it's likely b/c 35% of them are BYU fans.
If BYU has faltered somewhat in the season, say 6-4 or worse, there is a chance to catch BYU napping. However, the talent disparity is ridiculous right now, probably even a bigger gap than last year, when BYU won at home 42-7.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
The Beginning of the End: Utah-BYU "Taking a Break"
Since the announcement of Utah going to the Pac 12 and BYU (doing about the only thing it could do after that by) going Independent, I have had somewhat mixed feelings about the annual rivalry game. If it could be played in Week One or as the last regular season game, I'd be all for it, but it doesn't make much sense in Week Three.
Clearly, the Pac 12 despises this rivalry and if it goes by the wayside, the blame realistically rests solely on them. They have made exemptions for other schools (most notably USC and Stanford) with playing non-conference "rivalry" games later in the season, but never made such an allowance for Utah-BYU, even knowing it was such a huge rivalry. The only reasoning for it I can see: trying to FORCE a Utah-CU rivalry to be born.
I support BYU having quality opponents on the schedule year in and year out, which Utah clearly is and will be in 2014 and 2015. However, being honest about Utah's situation, they are essentially just an above average team from a BCS conference. If BYU can find other middle-of-the-pack to some years slightly better (I believe 2012 is one of the "slightly better" years for Utah), I would be in favor of scheduling them OVER Utah. Simply put: Utah has a heck of a lot more motivation for a game against BYU than a team like, say, Georgia Tech. As we've seen in years past, even when BYU is clearly the better team, Utah always competes in the game, and sometimes even wins. When BYU is clearly better than a Baylor, Oregon State, Georgia Tech type of team (teams usually holding similar spots in conference standings to what I expect from the Utes, which is between 2nd-4th in their division), they win those games 9 times out of 10, and can do so handily, something that hasn't happened in over a decade against Utah.
On the flip side, if BYU "replaces" Utah with another WAC rummy then it's a very bad situation for BYU and a significant downgrade in scheduling. BYU fans got their fill of New Mexico State, Idaho, and San Jose State last year and this year, we don't need it again. Granted, future schedules are looking much brighter already.
If the game is to be played at all, as I said, I would prefer to see the game played the first week or last week of the season when the hype machine can build up. As mentioned, the Pac 12 won't allow the last week of the season. Neither Utah or BYU seem very excited to schedule the game the first week of the season either. The third week of the season, when both teams have more high-profile games the few weeks following, just doesn't have the same feel.
Clearly, this was Utah's decision, and I don't blame them. The 9-game Pac 12 schedule really binds them from a scheduling perspective. If the Pac 12 does go forward with the mandatory Big Ten opponent starting in 2017, there is no reason for Utah to continue playing BYU after that. They schedule a "win" (presumably an FCS team or someone like Utah State) and only have one more game left. If they schedule BYU in that last open game every year, they are missing out on opportunities to play about 100 teams they could otherwise schedule. I would not play BYU if I were them.
For BYU, they needed to stop putting so much effort into scheduling this dying rivalry and focus on getting a few other decent BCS conference teams to agree to play instead. As a BYU fan, I'd rather play teams like Cal, North Carolina, Texas Tech, that are just as good as Utah, generally speaking, but without the animosity and stupidity of the fan bases.
I think this "break" is just a precursor to the ultimate break-up after 2016. Things may change, but it'll take a significant change in the landscape of college football to make any change to the trajectory of this rivalry. It is a sad day, I suppose, but I will get over it quickly. In fact, I was over it about two years ago. The final step in the "grieving process" will probably be BYU's next announcement of a BCS conference opponent on the future schedule. BYU will be fine. Utah will be fine. Life goes on.
Clearly, the Pac 12 despises this rivalry and if it goes by the wayside, the blame realistically rests solely on them. They have made exemptions for other schools (most notably USC and Stanford) with playing non-conference "rivalry" games later in the season, but never made such an allowance for Utah-BYU, even knowing it was such a huge rivalry. The only reasoning for it I can see: trying to FORCE a Utah-CU rivalry to be born.
I support BYU having quality opponents on the schedule year in and year out, which Utah clearly is and will be in 2014 and 2015. However, being honest about Utah's situation, they are essentially just an above average team from a BCS conference. If BYU can find other middle-of-the-pack to some years slightly better (I believe 2012 is one of the "slightly better" years for Utah), I would be in favor of scheduling them OVER Utah. Simply put: Utah has a heck of a lot more motivation for a game against BYU than a team like, say, Georgia Tech. As we've seen in years past, even when BYU is clearly the better team, Utah always competes in the game, and sometimes even wins. When BYU is clearly better than a Baylor, Oregon State, Georgia Tech type of team (teams usually holding similar spots in conference standings to what I expect from the Utes, which is between 2nd-4th in their division), they win those games 9 times out of 10, and can do so handily, something that hasn't happened in over a decade against Utah.
On the flip side, if BYU "replaces" Utah with another WAC rummy then it's a very bad situation for BYU and a significant downgrade in scheduling. BYU fans got their fill of New Mexico State, Idaho, and San Jose State last year and this year, we don't need it again. Granted, future schedules are looking much brighter already.
If the game is to be played at all, as I said, I would prefer to see the game played the first week or last week of the season when the hype machine can build up. As mentioned, the Pac 12 won't allow the last week of the season. Neither Utah or BYU seem very excited to schedule the game the first week of the season either. The third week of the season, when both teams have more high-profile games the few weeks following, just doesn't have the same feel.
Clearly, this was Utah's decision, and I don't blame them. The 9-game Pac 12 schedule really binds them from a scheduling perspective. If the Pac 12 does go forward with the mandatory Big Ten opponent starting in 2017, there is no reason for Utah to continue playing BYU after that. They schedule a "win" (presumably an FCS team or someone like Utah State) and only have one more game left. If they schedule BYU in that last open game every year, they are missing out on opportunities to play about 100 teams they could otherwise schedule. I would not play BYU if I were them.
For BYU, they needed to stop putting so much effort into scheduling this dying rivalry and focus on getting a few other decent BCS conference teams to agree to play instead. As a BYU fan, I'd rather play teams like Cal, North Carolina, Texas Tech, that are just as good as Utah, generally speaking, but without the animosity and stupidity of the fan bases.
I think this "break" is just a precursor to the ultimate break-up after 2016. Things may change, but it'll take a significant change in the landscape of college football to make any change to the trajectory of this rivalry. It is a sad day, I suppose, but I will get over it quickly. In fact, I was over it about two years ago. The final step in the "grieving process" will probably be BYU's next announcement of a BCS conference opponent on the future schedule. BYU will be fine. Utah will be fine. Life goes on.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Closer Look at BYU's 2012 Opponents: #11 Idaho
Last year: 2-10, including a 42-7 loss at BYU. Only 1 win over an FBS team (at San Jose State).
Need to Replace: QB, top 2 RBs, #2 WR, and 2 players at each level of the defense
Returning Starters: 5 on offense (2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 OL), 5 on defense (2 DL, 1 LB, 2 DB), K, and P
Last year vs. BYU: Lost 42-7, outgained 505-241.
Contributions last year vs. BYU returning in 2012: David Micheletti had 2 catches for 27 yards, Michael LaGrone 2 for 11, and Justin Veltung 2 for 9. Taylor Davis 5-12 for (MINUS) 6 yards, with 3 rushes for 12 yards. Gary Walker, Conrad Scheidt, Aaron Grymes, and QuayShawne Buckley each had 7 tackles.
Offense
Idaho had a lot of holes to fill on what was a reasonably inept offense (3.5 yards/carry and a 53% completion percentage). A lot of those were filled with Transfers from JC or FCS schools. They have two former Pac 12 recruits highlighting that group with QB Dominique Blackman, formerly a Washington Commit, and RB Ryan Bass, once a highly regarded prospect at ASU.
Skill Positions: Blackman is a bit of a wild card at QB, after spending last season on the scout team. Bass could be a big threat at RB, but never made it at ASU and spent most of last season out with injury. WR Mike Scott and TE Michael LaGrone can bring in a lot of balls. WR Justin Veltung is the home-run threat. There's a reasonable amount of experience behind those guys, but one would assume not a lot of talent, since those four players may struggle to make All-Conference in a very weak WAC.
OL: 3 starters are gone from a below average Offensive Line in 2011. There are only 31 career starts for this unit coming into the year. To give you an idea of how few that is: BYU LG Braden Hansen has more starts by himself and RT Braden Brown is just short of that mark. The OL is big, as is typical with a Robb Akey, Idaho OL, averaging 6'3" and over 305 pounds. Big doesn't always mean effective, and this looks to be one of the more ineffective groups in a weak WAC.
Defense
There is a lot less question about the defense than the offense this season. They return only 5 starters, but have a wealth of experience on the defensive side of the ball. They had 2 or 3 guys who return this year that would have started last year but for season-ending injuries prior to the season. So while they only have 5 "starters" returning, they have 9 positions where there is starting experience.
DL: The defensive line isn't amazingly big and it likely won't be amazingly productive, which was one of Idaho's major problem's last year. However, there is more experience and depth there this year. A lot of these guys are JC transfers, which can sometimes indicate a lower football IQ, late bloomer, or behavioral issues. The fact that the JC transfers ended up at Idaho means their physical abilities aren't able to make up for these potential deficiencies (or else they would have ended up at better schools). I suspect BYU will control the Idaho DL.
LB: Idaho will be starting 3 seniors at LB to begin the year. All of them have seen significant playing time over the years. This is a pretty sound group, from what I remember of Idaho last year and in 2010. But they can only do so much if the DL isn't holding the OL off. I'd expect 25 tackles from this group when they meet BYU in Provo.
DB: 3 of the 4 DBs are seniors. Gary Walker is the kind of free safety that can change games with his hard-hitting mentality. But if the DBs aren't causing turnovers, the rest of the defense will struggle. The top 8 on the depth chart combined for only 1 INT last season, in spite of reasonably significant time on the field.
Overview
There is a reason why Idaho is #11 on BYU's schedule in terms of game difficulty. BYU won 42-7 last year and, while Idaho might be marginally better (at best), BYU should be significantly better. It's tough to predict that big of a blowout again, but I'd also be shocked to see the score change that much. A lot will depend on how the two teams' seasons are going, but still, BYU should mash them on Senior Day in Provo. If Idaho is 3-6 or worse going into the game, BYU wins big. If BYU has 6 wins or more heading into the contest, BYU destroys them. 2-7 Idaho vs. 7-2 BYU: I can't even imagine the beat down that would be laid...
Need to Replace: QB, top 2 RBs, #2 WR, and 2 players at each level of the defense
Returning Starters: 5 on offense (2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 OL), 5 on defense (2 DL, 1 LB, 2 DB), K, and P
Last year vs. BYU: Lost 42-7, outgained 505-241.
Contributions last year vs. BYU returning in 2012: David Micheletti had 2 catches for 27 yards, Michael LaGrone 2 for 11, and Justin Veltung 2 for 9. Taylor Davis 5-12 for (MINUS) 6 yards, with 3 rushes for 12 yards. Gary Walker, Conrad Scheidt, Aaron Grymes, and QuayShawne Buckley each had 7 tackles.
Offense
Idaho had a lot of holes to fill on what was a reasonably inept offense (3.5 yards/carry and a 53% completion percentage). A lot of those were filled with Transfers from JC or FCS schools. They have two former Pac 12 recruits highlighting that group with QB Dominique Blackman, formerly a Washington Commit, and RB Ryan Bass, once a highly regarded prospect at ASU.
Skill Positions: Blackman is a bit of a wild card at QB, after spending last season on the scout team. Bass could be a big threat at RB, but never made it at ASU and spent most of last season out with injury. WR Mike Scott and TE Michael LaGrone can bring in a lot of balls. WR Justin Veltung is the home-run threat. There's a reasonable amount of experience behind those guys, but one would assume not a lot of talent, since those four players may struggle to make All-Conference in a very weak WAC.
OL: 3 starters are gone from a below average Offensive Line in 2011. There are only 31 career starts for this unit coming into the year. To give you an idea of how few that is: BYU LG Braden Hansen has more starts by himself and RT Braden Brown is just short of that mark. The OL is big, as is typical with a Robb Akey, Idaho OL, averaging 6'3" and over 305 pounds. Big doesn't always mean effective, and this looks to be one of the more ineffective groups in a weak WAC.
Defense
There is a lot less question about the defense than the offense this season. They return only 5 starters, but have a wealth of experience on the defensive side of the ball. They had 2 or 3 guys who return this year that would have started last year but for season-ending injuries prior to the season. So while they only have 5 "starters" returning, they have 9 positions where there is starting experience.
DL: The defensive line isn't amazingly big and it likely won't be amazingly productive, which was one of Idaho's major problem's last year. However, there is more experience and depth there this year. A lot of these guys are JC transfers, which can sometimes indicate a lower football IQ, late bloomer, or behavioral issues. The fact that the JC transfers ended up at Idaho means their physical abilities aren't able to make up for these potential deficiencies (or else they would have ended up at better schools). I suspect BYU will control the Idaho DL.
LB: Idaho will be starting 3 seniors at LB to begin the year. All of them have seen significant playing time over the years. This is a pretty sound group, from what I remember of Idaho last year and in 2010. But they can only do so much if the DL isn't holding the OL off. I'd expect 25 tackles from this group when they meet BYU in Provo.
DB: 3 of the 4 DBs are seniors. Gary Walker is the kind of free safety that can change games with his hard-hitting mentality. But if the DBs aren't causing turnovers, the rest of the defense will struggle. The top 8 on the depth chart combined for only 1 INT last season, in spite of reasonably significant time on the field.
Overview
There is a reason why Idaho is #11 on BYU's schedule in terms of game difficulty. BYU won 42-7 last year and, while Idaho might be marginally better (at best), BYU should be significantly better. It's tough to predict that big of a blowout again, but I'd also be shocked to see the score change that much. A lot will depend on how the two teams' seasons are going, but still, BYU should mash them on Senior Day in Provo. If Idaho is 3-6 or worse going into the game, BYU wins big. If BYU has 6 wins or more heading into the contest, BYU destroys them. 2-7 Idaho vs. 7-2 BYU: I can't even imagine the beat down that would be laid...
Monday, July 9, 2012
Closer Look at Weber State
Just for the sake of fairness, here's a closer look at BYU's #12 (i.e. the easiest) opponent.
Weber State is coming off a 5-6 season, finishing exactly in the middle of the pack in the Big Sky FCS conference. BYU is Weber State's 2nd FBS opponent to start the season, after traveling to Fresno State the week prior.
Weber State will operate the 2012 season with an interim coach, Jody Sears, who has no head coaching experience. He was hired as Defensive Coordinator before the recently bankrupted John L. Smith took the Arkansas job.
Expectations aren't exactly low for Weber at an FCS level. They return their top 3 rushers, their starting QB, their top 2 WRs, and 7 starters from their defense. However, even if this team goes 8-1 against their FCS competition, they still shouldn't be beating any decent FBS team.
The Wildcats were a very balanced offensive attack last year, with a dual-threat QB. I don't imagine, even with a new coaching staff, that much will change this year. Weber could easily go 7-4 (or maybe even better) this year, but one of those 7 will not be BYU. It's a little too early to be predicting scores, but I'd be shocked if BYU didn't score at least 35 points in this game and if Weber scored any more than 14.
Weber State is coming off a 5-6 season, finishing exactly in the middle of the pack in the Big Sky FCS conference. BYU is Weber State's 2nd FBS opponent to start the season, after traveling to Fresno State the week prior.
Weber State will operate the 2012 season with an interim coach, Jody Sears, who has no head coaching experience. He was hired as Defensive Coordinator before the recently bankrupted John L. Smith took the Arkansas job.
Expectations aren't exactly low for Weber at an FCS level. They return their top 3 rushers, their starting QB, their top 2 WRs, and 7 starters from their defense. However, even if this team goes 8-1 against their FCS competition, they still shouldn't be beating any decent FBS team.
The Wildcats were a very balanced offensive attack last year, with a dual-threat QB. I don't imagine, even with a new coaching staff, that much will change this year. Weber could easily go 7-4 (or maybe even better) this year, but one of those 7 will not be BYU. It's a little too early to be predicting scores, but I'd be shocked if BYU didn't score at least 35 points in this game and if Weber scored any more than 14.
Friday, July 6, 2012
BYU's 2012 Football Schedule
Here is how I would rank the difficulty of BYU's games this season, taking as many factors as I can think of into account, while being as brief as I can (more detailed reports to follow...). This isn't a prediction as to how likely BYU is to win, just my thoughts on the difficulty of the win:
12: Weber State. Weber State is an FCS school and should be at a lower level than any other team on BYU's schedule. Plus they hired a coach and lost him within the month. That'll set a program back!
11: Idaho. It's at home, on senior day, against arguably the worst FBS team on the schedule.
10: at New Mexico State. New Mexico State might be the only team that can compete with Idaho for worst on the schedule. NMSU lost a lot of their bad players from last year. Their back-ups now have to start? Easy W.
9: at San Jose State. They have a lot of experience returning on the D. They threw the ball well against BYU last year. This game is on the road so who knows. This is a better team than NMSU...
8: Hawaii. There has always been a little healthy bad blood between Hawaii and BYU. Add Norm Chow as HC at Hawaii and things could really get nasty. Still, Hawaii is not a very good team right now.
7: Utah State. This game is turning into a real rivalry of sorts. Last year, Utah State made it's first bowl game in 14 years. The Ags ran all over BYU last year.
6: Washington State. The opener is always a tough one to win, particularly against a BCS conference team returning 14 starters, including a Senior QB.
5: Oregon State. The Beavers were down last season, but Mike Riley is a good coach. They return a lot of talent. If the OL comes together, this becomes a very tough game.
4: at Georgia Tech. The option is a difficult offense to defend. BYU is quasi-familiar having played Air Force so much, but they haven't seen it with these kinds of athletes (combined with the experience of this year's GT team). Bobby Dodd Stadium is a tough place to play with Paul Johnson amassing a 20-6 record there, however, he has lost at least one home game a year, so it's not an impregnable fortress.
3: at Notre Dame. Historic venue. Talented team. If the QB situation weren't so in flux and Brian Kelly weren't so much of a wild card with his anger management issues, I'd probably have them in the top two in difficulty to win.
2: at Boise State. The blue turf is a tough place to play. Chris Petersen always has a well-coached team. So combine that with a Thursday night game immediately after playing at rival Utah, and this will be a tough game to win. ND is better than Boise State, but at least BYU has a full week to prepare for the Irish.
1: at Utah. After a shellacking in Provo last season, Utah certainly holds the psychological edge over BYU (and, in my opinion, has for the last 9 years). This is perhaps the last football game ever between these two long-time rivals, in Salt Lake, against a talented team that probably competes for the Pac 12 South. Outside of playing a top 10 team on the road, I don't think BYU could find a more difficult game to win in 2012.
12: Weber State. Weber State is an FCS school and should be at a lower level than any other team on BYU's schedule. Plus they hired a coach and lost him within the month. That'll set a program back!
11: Idaho. It's at home, on senior day, against arguably the worst FBS team on the schedule.
10: at New Mexico State. New Mexico State might be the only team that can compete with Idaho for worst on the schedule. NMSU lost a lot of their bad players from last year. Their back-ups now have to start? Easy W.
9: at San Jose State. They have a lot of experience returning on the D. They threw the ball well against BYU last year. This game is on the road so who knows. This is a better team than NMSU...
8: Hawaii. There has always been a little healthy bad blood between Hawaii and BYU. Add Norm Chow as HC at Hawaii and things could really get nasty. Still, Hawaii is not a very good team right now.
7: Utah State. This game is turning into a real rivalry of sorts. Last year, Utah State made it's first bowl game in 14 years. The Ags ran all over BYU last year.
6: Washington State. The opener is always a tough one to win, particularly against a BCS conference team returning 14 starters, including a Senior QB.
5: Oregon State. The Beavers were down last season, but Mike Riley is a good coach. They return a lot of talent. If the OL comes together, this becomes a very tough game.
4: at Georgia Tech. The option is a difficult offense to defend. BYU is quasi-familiar having played Air Force so much, but they haven't seen it with these kinds of athletes (combined with the experience of this year's GT team). Bobby Dodd Stadium is a tough place to play with Paul Johnson amassing a 20-6 record there, however, he has lost at least one home game a year, so it's not an impregnable fortress.
3: at Notre Dame. Historic venue. Talented team. If the QB situation weren't so in flux and Brian Kelly weren't so much of a wild card with his anger management issues, I'd probably have them in the top two in difficulty to win.
2: at Boise State. The blue turf is a tough place to play. Chris Petersen always has a well-coached team. So combine that with a Thursday night game immediately after playing at rival Utah, and this will be a tough game to win. ND is better than Boise State, but at least BYU has a full week to prepare for the Irish.
1: at Utah. After a shellacking in Provo last season, Utah certainly holds the psychological edge over BYU (and, in my opinion, has for the last 9 years). This is perhaps the last football game ever between these two long-time rivals, in Salt Lake, against a talented team that probably competes for the Pac 12 South. Outside of playing a top 10 team on the road, I don't think BYU could find a more difficult game to win in 2012.
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