BYU brought home two more road victories this week, giving them 11 wins away from the Marriott Center, by winning at 5th place San Francisco and at last place Santa Clara. More importantly, they kept pace in the WCC race, which got a lot tighter with two upsets this week (Loyola Marymount beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga losing at San Francisco). They are now tied in second with Gonzaga, just one game behind suddenly struggling St. Mary's. The impressive part about this team is that it truly has been a team effort.
This week demonstrated that as much as any other. Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco. Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara. Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games. Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara. Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.
While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game. That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust. At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense. At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick. At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup). At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.
If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9. If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin. Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now. Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D. In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch. In March, however, they can't give you anything. Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.
Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point. With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday. Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee. How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags? A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco. A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco. However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.
This is an exciting time of year. BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win. Next up comes their first real challenge of February. Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment. Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against. Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?
Like I said, it's a fun time of year. I expect a good game on Thursday. I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes. Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes. That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68. The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga. If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite. Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it. Zags get this one. (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)
Monday, February 20, 2012
Significant Movement in Mo's Field
I listed 10 guaranteed 1-Bid Leagues last week, however, this week, I'm ready to go ahead and stomp my foot down on a few others. So there are 16 conferences that will only send one team to the NCAA Tournament. Period. Last week, I had these 10: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. This week, I'm willing to concede that Atlantic Sun, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC will be one-bid leagues.
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Mo's Field of 68
The following conferences are all guaranteed one-bid leagues (10 Bids): America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. Whoever wins the conference tournament makes the NCAA Tournament, no one else has a chance.
The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)
Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.
So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.
When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.
I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.
This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.
Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!
The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)
Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.
So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.
When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.
I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.
This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.
Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!
Sunday, February 5, 2012
A Knack For the Dramatic
BYU pulled out a victory over another not great team last night. They did so in interesting fashion. The game was definitely chippy. Even the fans seemed to be going after each other with their cheers and jeers. There were a lot of fouls called, obviously a lot more on Portland (though, in the refs defense, Portland fouled BYU a lot more). BYU shot more free throws for a road team than anyone else this season, by five.
But still, both teams could easily leave the game feeling like the refs tried to hose them. Adjusting to the officiating of the WCC has definitely been challenging for Coach Rose and his staff. I think that has been as big of an adjustment as anything: venues, opponents, coaching, etc. The officiating is different. BYU's youth (and tempers) don't handle it very well at times, particularly on the road.
The Gonzaga win was big for BYU. It was the first time since Baylor, really, that BYU looked somewhat cohesive on both ends of the floor. They played at a fast pace, but weren't frantic about it. They played solid defense, particularly inside. At Portland, they had a similar game, but at times, the guards went too fast/too frantic. I wonder how this will play out in games at Gonzaga, but first at improved San Francisco. They can't let the crowd or refs or both get to them like they have in two games against St. Mary's, or they will lose that game.
Obviously the three-point shooting has been a concern for BYU. I think the biggest thing missing from BYU's three-point arsenal is the transition three. Stephen Rogers' injury hurts that certainly. But guys aren't even running to the corners in transition like they used to. Most of the threes are coming from the half-court offense, which isn't really BYU's specialty. The other issue I see with it, is guys are trying to shoot their way out of it by continuing to shoot threes in the half-court. Zylstra, Cusick, and Carlino all started going to the hoop last night. Finally. Drive, get fouled, get free throws, get in a rhythm. Let's see if this helps BYU going forward. It certainly helped Cusick last night as he went 2-4 from three, which seems like the best individual performance from three BYU has seen in quite some time.
The other thing that might contribute to BYU's shooting woes of late was the trip to Greece in August. It essentially extended the season about 2 months so guys are playing like it's late March instead of early February (none of the guys on this team have been playing in late March before!). BYU took just a handful of guys on the trip, and they logged a lot of minutes. It seemed like Harrison hit the freshman wall before most freshman do. Zylstra's clearly not playing as well as the season goes along. I think that may be impacting performance at this point in time.
BYU has a well-timed week off. BYU needs to ramp up for a big end of February with road games at surging San Francisco, a Santa Clara team that played BYU reasonably tough in the Marriott Center, and at NCAA Tournament-bound Gonzaga. Those three roadies are sandwiched by home games against the 7th and 8th place teams in the conference that BYU beat by double-digits on the road. 4-1 leaves them in decent position to make the field of 68, 3-2 and it's done, 5-0 and they're in, probably avoiding a play-in game as well. 5-0 and the Cougars would clinch a double-bye in the WCC Tourney. 4-1 and they get a single-bye. 3-2 and who cares...
I went through last night and identified 64 likely teams to make the field. That leaves 4 spots for the Cougars to squeeze in. If the season ended today, I think they would probably be in, but the margin for error is tiny. At this point, they could overcome a loss to Gonzaga, but they'll probably need to advance to the WCC Final to feel comfortable if they do.
But still, both teams could easily leave the game feeling like the refs tried to hose them. Adjusting to the officiating of the WCC has definitely been challenging for Coach Rose and his staff. I think that has been as big of an adjustment as anything: venues, opponents, coaching, etc. The officiating is different. BYU's youth (and tempers) don't handle it very well at times, particularly on the road.
The Gonzaga win was big for BYU. It was the first time since Baylor, really, that BYU looked somewhat cohesive on both ends of the floor. They played at a fast pace, but weren't frantic about it. They played solid defense, particularly inside. At Portland, they had a similar game, but at times, the guards went too fast/too frantic. I wonder how this will play out in games at Gonzaga, but first at improved San Francisco. They can't let the crowd or refs or both get to them like they have in two games against St. Mary's, or they will lose that game.
Obviously the three-point shooting has been a concern for BYU. I think the biggest thing missing from BYU's three-point arsenal is the transition three. Stephen Rogers' injury hurts that certainly. But guys aren't even running to the corners in transition like they used to. Most of the threes are coming from the half-court offense, which isn't really BYU's specialty. The other issue I see with it, is guys are trying to shoot their way out of it by continuing to shoot threes in the half-court. Zylstra, Cusick, and Carlino all started going to the hoop last night. Finally. Drive, get fouled, get free throws, get in a rhythm. Let's see if this helps BYU going forward. It certainly helped Cusick last night as he went 2-4 from three, which seems like the best individual performance from three BYU has seen in quite some time.
The other thing that might contribute to BYU's shooting woes of late was the trip to Greece in August. It essentially extended the season about 2 months so guys are playing like it's late March instead of early February (none of the guys on this team have been playing in late March before!). BYU took just a handful of guys on the trip, and they logged a lot of minutes. It seemed like Harrison hit the freshman wall before most freshman do. Zylstra's clearly not playing as well as the season goes along. I think that may be impacting performance at this point in time.
BYU has a well-timed week off. BYU needs to ramp up for a big end of February with road games at surging San Francisco, a Santa Clara team that played BYU reasonably tough in the Marriott Center, and at NCAA Tournament-bound Gonzaga. Those three roadies are sandwiched by home games against the 7th and 8th place teams in the conference that BYU beat by double-digits on the road. 4-1 leaves them in decent position to make the field of 68, 3-2 and it's done, 5-0 and they're in, probably avoiding a play-in game as well. 5-0 and the Cougars would clinch a double-bye in the WCC Tourney. 4-1 and they get a single-bye. 3-2 and who cares...
I went through last night and identified 64 likely teams to make the field. That leaves 4 spots for the Cougars to squeeze in. If the season ended today, I think they would probably be in, but the margin for error is tiny. At this point, they could overcome a loss to Gonzaga, but they'll probably need to advance to the WCC Final to feel comfortable if they do.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
BYU in February
I had planned on writing a piece about Dave Rose and his success in February, but Greg Wrubell beat me to it. So, instead of in-depth analysis, I'll just point out a fun fact or two about February in the Dave Rose era.
February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%
In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?
Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.
Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.
What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?
February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%
In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?
Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.
Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.
What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Must Win: BYU Won
In a game that BYU absolutely had to win in order to stay in the hunt for an at-large berth, they pulled through, winning 70-68 at Virginia Tech. It was ugly at times. There were a lot of 6/8-0 runs for BYU and just as many given up by BYU. BYU's younger players continued to show an inability to play calm under pressure at times, when the Hokies made a run, or the crowd got involved, BYU played "frantic" for sure. But you have to admire the toughness they displayed in gutting out the win.
To me, the most important thing BYU can take from this win is confidence by a lot of different players. Harrison came in and gave the Cougars an early lift, hitting a three and eating up some minutes. Nate Austin hit some big jumpers and nabbed 3 offensive boards. Winder had three steals throughout the course of the game that all led to breakaways (unfortunately, BYU only netted 3 points on those 3 fastbreak opportunities). Davies and Hartsock combined to go 18-20 on Free Throws. When Hartsock was ineffective early, Davies went to work. When Davies got in foul trouble, Hartsock picked it up, including a big block on a layup at the end of the game. Zylstra did nothing offensively all night (surprise that Brock didn't play well against a decent opponent...), but then the game-winning three. Carlino was 1-8 from three and just kept shooting. Abouo continues to look lost in transition, in the half-court set, under the basket.
Between Zylstra, Carlino, and Abouo, the starting backcourt went 7-33 from the field and 3-20 from three. The Cougars also got outrebounded. They did that on the road, in the ACC (granted a middle of the pack ACC team that really has no chance to make the NCAA Tournament). And they won.
They won the game by sharing and valuing the basketball (14 assists on 22 baskets and committing 7 turnovers), mixing up the defenses in the first half (playing a little 3-2 matchup zone in addition to the usual 2-3 zone), forcing Virginia Tech turnovers (7 steals by BYU, 15 turnovers by Va Tech), and making free throws (21-24). This was a team win. A lot of guys made significant contributions, even if it was only one or two plays.
Clearly there is opportunity to improve. But this was a win that BYU can build off of. They allowed the frenetic pace and frenzied environment to get to them. But they battled back and continued to fight. They played poorly on the road and won. They have not done that a whole lot this season, perhaps at Utah and, one could argue, Loyola Marymount. Big win. BYU remains firmly on the bubble with the win. A loss would have essentially ended hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now, there is new life and opportunity, and two big games ahead. As the great sage of comedy says: get 'er done.
To me, the most important thing BYU can take from this win is confidence by a lot of different players. Harrison came in and gave the Cougars an early lift, hitting a three and eating up some minutes. Nate Austin hit some big jumpers and nabbed 3 offensive boards. Winder had three steals throughout the course of the game that all led to breakaways (unfortunately, BYU only netted 3 points on those 3 fastbreak opportunities). Davies and Hartsock combined to go 18-20 on Free Throws. When Hartsock was ineffective early, Davies went to work. When Davies got in foul trouble, Hartsock picked it up, including a big block on a layup at the end of the game. Zylstra did nothing offensively all night (surprise that Brock didn't play well against a decent opponent...), but then the game-winning three. Carlino was 1-8 from three and just kept shooting. Abouo continues to look lost in transition, in the half-court set, under the basket.
Between Zylstra, Carlino, and Abouo, the starting backcourt went 7-33 from the field and 3-20 from three. The Cougars also got outrebounded. They did that on the road, in the ACC (granted a middle of the pack ACC team that really has no chance to make the NCAA Tournament). And they won.
They won the game by sharing and valuing the basketball (14 assists on 22 baskets and committing 7 turnovers), mixing up the defenses in the first half (playing a little 3-2 matchup zone in addition to the usual 2-3 zone), forcing Virginia Tech turnovers (7 steals by BYU, 15 turnovers by Va Tech), and making free throws (21-24). This was a team win. A lot of guys made significant contributions, even if it was only one or two plays.
Clearly there is opportunity to improve. But this was a win that BYU can build off of. They allowed the frenetic pace and frenzied environment to get to them. But they battled back and continued to fight. They played poorly on the road and won. They have not done that a whole lot this season, perhaps at Utah and, one could argue, Loyola Marymount. Big win. BYU remains firmly on the bubble with the win. A loss would have essentially ended hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now, there is new life and opportunity, and two big games ahead. As the great sage of comedy says: get 'er done.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
The Mo Jinx
Well, I will take full credit for BYU's crappy performance. The Mo Jinx is definitely still alive. I say BYU looks like a tournament team, they go 2 for 25 from three. I say BYU could beat just about anyone in the country at home, and they lose badly to a team that won't even make the NIT. I say they don't have any really bad losses yet, and they go out and get one.
A co-worker (looking for a betting tip) asked me about BYU's 17-point spread against LMU. I told him I'd shun it like the plague. BYU SHOULD beat an average-at-best Lions team at home, that they beat on the road by 8, easily. However, this is still a young team, and they might assume that, because of the relative ease of the road game, despite playing poorly, coming back home to play the same squad would be a walk in the park. LMU turned up the intensity and BYU didn't respond.
There was a lot of effort, but it was a bit of a panicked effort. This was not a cool, calm collected from a team that can stay composed during the frenetic pace of an NCAA Tournament game. Now it's time for the real BYU to show up. They've got to dispatch Pepperdine easily and get ready for the brutal 3-game stretch that will define their season. The sins committed on Thursday night can be repented of with a nice 8-game winning streak.
And they were some big sins. This went from a bubble team looking assuredly to be on the right side to a bubble team certain to be on the wrong side unless it proves otherwise in the next 10 days. The big stretch starts today on the road, against a poor Pepperdine team that has lost 6 games in a row, all by double digits. Win by 20, and get some momentum. Win by 8 or 4 or lose, and lose the fanbase. While the Loyola loss doesn't quite equate to the football team's loss to Utah, it may have the same impact: fans getting tired of beating the scrubs, struggling against decent opponents, and losing the big ones. The fans stopped showing up to football. They already struggle to come out in FULL FORCE to basketball games. Win big today. Beat Va Tech on the road on Wednesday. There are no moral victories any more, I'm not sure there were any BEFORE the loss to Loyola Marymount, but after it, no chance. The fans won't take it any more. BYU 88, Pepperdine 60.
A co-worker (looking for a betting tip) asked me about BYU's 17-point spread against LMU. I told him I'd shun it like the plague. BYU SHOULD beat an average-at-best Lions team at home, that they beat on the road by 8, easily. However, this is still a young team, and they might assume that, because of the relative ease of the road game, despite playing poorly, coming back home to play the same squad would be a walk in the park. LMU turned up the intensity and BYU didn't respond.
There was a lot of effort, but it was a bit of a panicked effort. This was not a cool, calm collected from a team that can stay composed during the frenetic pace of an NCAA Tournament game. Now it's time for the real BYU to show up. They've got to dispatch Pepperdine easily and get ready for the brutal 3-game stretch that will define their season. The sins committed on Thursday night can be repented of with a nice 8-game winning streak.
And they were some big sins. This went from a bubble team looking assuredly to be on the right side to a bubble team certain to be on the wrong side unless it proves otherwise in the next 10 days. The big stretch starts today on the road, against a poor Pepperdine team that has lost 6 games in a row, all by double digits. Win by 20, and get some momentum. Win by 8 or 4 or lose, and lose the fanbase. While the Loyola loss doesn't quite equate to the football team's loss to Utah, it may have the same impact: fans getting tired of beating the scrubs, struggling against decent opponents, and losing the big ones. The fans stopped showing up to football. They already struggle to come out in FULL FORCE to basketball games. Win big today. Beat Va Tech on the road on Wednesday. There are no moral victories any more, I'm not sure there were any BEFORE the loss to Loyola Marymount, but after it, no chance. The fans won't take it any more. BYU 88, Pepperdine 60.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
BYU Looking Decent
As I continue to scout out BYU's potential NCAA Tournament opponents (i.e. as I watch way more college basketball than I have time to watch), I become more and more convinced that, in a way, my expectations for BYU are both too high and too low. This is actually a pretty darn good college team, but it's a college team, that makes a lot of mistakes and has a lot of flaws. It's a team that, quality-wise, belongs in the NCAA Tournament, although the lack of quality wins would put them firmly on the bubble (b/c they are just now hitting their stride and haven't had any meaningful games in that time period). This BYU team is certainly as capable as any team that'll end up with an 8 or 9 seed. This team could beat almost anyone in the nation at home, and compete with most teams at neutral sites similar to what they will likely see in the NCAA Tournament. The Wisconsin game is a bit of an aberration, as it wasn't a real NCAA Tournament environment, and it was in the pre-Carlino, still trying to find a point guard, Davies still preparing to get serious about basketball, era.
Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad. For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays. Carlino hasn't been doing that. He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part. He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype. But he has settled in nicely. His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once. His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span. He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team. He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.
Noah has been extremely efficient. He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%. His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire. And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down. He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.
Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season. He woke up in the Baylor game though. It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment. He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season. But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor. Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game. He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games. The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue. On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much. He's manned up the last month. BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.
The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent. Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring. Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16. He can shoot 23% or 50%. He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none. He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound. I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some). And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins. Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side. Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!). Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce. Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds. If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically. Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.
Cusick is an interesting case. He has been an amazing shooter of late. He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game. Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position. What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff. He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.
I like the make-up of this team. If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU. The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin. [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games. Always have, always will] Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16. A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer. Guess what? That happens across all of college basketball. The other teams' players are on scholarship too. Sometimes they get on hot streaks. BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing. For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes. And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).
I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things. They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game. If things go right, it may even extend beyond that. With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought. There's potential, and they're improving. If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.
Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason. If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about. If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed. If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip. What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season. But they also lack any big wins. Most bubble teams have both. BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.
Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad. For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays. Carlino hasn't been doing that. He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part. He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype. But he has settled in nicely. His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once. His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span. He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team. He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.
Noah has been extremely efficient. He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%. His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire. And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down. He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.
Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season. He woke up in the Baylor game though. It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment. He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season. But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor. Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game. He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games. The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue. On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much. He's manned up the last month. BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.
The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent. Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring. Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16. He can shoot 23% or 50%. He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none. He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound. I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some). And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins. Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side. Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!). Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce. Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds. If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically. Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.
Cusick is an interesting case. He has been an amazing shooter of late. He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game. Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position. What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff. He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.
I like the make-up of this team. If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU. The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin. [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games. Always have, always will] Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16. A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer. Guess what? That happens across all of college basketball. The other teams' players are on scholarship too. Sometimes they get on hot streaks. BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing. For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes. And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).
I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things. They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game. If things go right, it may even extend beyond that. With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought. There's potential, and they're improving. If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.
Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason. If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about. If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed. If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip. What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season. But they also lack any big wins. Most bubble teams have both. BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Big Test for BYU Monday Night
BYU plays at San Diego tonight, a team they blew out by 36 at home. The real test for BYU tonight, however, is when Baylor travels to Kansas for a showdown of elite basketball teams. BYU had Baylor on the ropes multiple times throughout their contest. BYU today is clearly a better team than it was then, so if Baylor can head to KU and pull one out at Allen Fieldhouse, that would say a lot about BYU, I think. If Kansas handles business at home easily, then perhaps BYU isn't as good as we hope.
Now, for BYU's game, the real test will be: can they put the 36-point blowout behind them. Will they take San Diego seriously enough? After another subpar defensive game on Saturday, I'm not sure they can afford to take anyone lightly at this point. If the shots aren't falling, which is possible on the road, BYU can't give up easy looks at the basket to anyone. So, the test for BYU, can they mentally be in this game from the opening tip? Bury San Diego early and get Rogers, Sharp, and Harrison some additional playing time in case the Cougars need them down the stretch (they will need Rogers, and I hate to lump him in with Sharp and Harrison but you can tell he isn't quite right yet). Rogers D has been good since he's been back, but he looks out of sorts a bit on the offensive end still.
For San Diego, Dennis Kramer was an unexpected surprise on the offensive end in the first matchup. Ken Rancifer came out of nowhere with his 8 boards as well. San Diego got no-shows from their two best players, leading scorer Johnny Dee (0-7) and leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Chris Manresa (4 points, 2 rebounds). I would expect them to have much better games this time around. One or two of those "role" players figures to have a good game on their home court and this might be a contest through 30 minutes. BYU needs to hit shots and play defense. They need to win this one handily.
This is one of the worst teams in the WCC. There figures to be a lot of BYU fans on hand for the game. If BYU doesn't get it done, this would be a shocker. Davies, Hartsock, and Austin combined for 45 points in the first matchup. I anticipate a lot of quick double teams and "monster" defense from San Diego. That means the Cougars have to hit outside shots, and Abouo and Carlino need to finish around the rim. There will also be opportunities for second chance points with the double teams and shifting and getting out of position that the Torrerros have to employ to have a chance. BYU 77, San Diego 66.
Now, for BYU's game, the real test will be: can they put the 36-point blowout behind them. Will they take San Diego seriously enough? After another subpar defensive game on Saturday, I'm not sure they can afford to take anyone lightly at this point. If the shots aren't falling, which is possible on the road, BYU can't give up easy looks at the basket to anyone. So, the test for BYU, can they mentally be in this game from the opening tip? Bury San Diego early and get Rogers, Sharp, and Harrison some additional playing time in case the Cougars need them down the stretch (they will need Rogers, and I hate to lump him in with Sharp and Harrison but you can tell he isn't quite right yet). Rogers D has been good since he's been back, but he looks out of sorts a bit on the offensive end still.
For San Diego, Dennis Kramer was an unexpected surprise on the offensive end in the first matchup. Ken Rancifer came out of nowhere with his 8 boards as well. San Diego got no-shows from their two best players, leading scorer Johnny Dee (0-7) and leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Chris Manresa (4 points, 2 rebounds). I would expect them to have much better games this time around. One or two of those "role" players figures to have a good game on their home court and this might be a contest through 30 minutes. BYU needs to hit shots and play defense. They need to win this one handily.
This is one of the worst teams in the WCC. There figures to be a lot of BYU fans on hand for the game. If BYU doesn't get it done, this would be a shocker. Davies, Hartsock, and Austin combined for 45 points in the first matchup. I anticipate a lot of quick double teams and "monster" defense from San Diego. That means the Cougars have to hit outside shots, and Abouo and Carlino need to finish around the rim. There will also be opportunities for second chance points with the double teams and shifting and getting out of position that the Torrerros have to employ to have a chance. BYU 77, San Diego 66.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Hate To Go Political, But Tis the Season
Shame on Fox News. They gave anything but a fair and balanced report tonight on the New Hampshire Primary, which is what they claim to do. I had to dig and do my own research to discover the facts about what actually happened in the New Hampshire primary. They could only find one "analyst" to declare it a good night for Romney, and that was Howard Dean's old campaign advisor, but had no shortage of analysts who said he "underwhelmed" with a 16% victory. Karl Rove stopped short of calling it a good night for Romney, but called Romney the presumptive nominee, which isn't exactly a big stretch, calling the frontrunner and poll-leader a presumptive nominee. Everybody else said it was an OK night, but he didn't wow like he needed to. Only 32% of late-deciding voters went his way. Oh no! After get lambasted by every candidate from every side on every issue every day the last 4 days, 1/3 of people still managed to go his direction. What did they expect?
I'm no political expert, but I'd say a night where the guys who are supposed to be your biggest "conservative" rivals are battling for 4th and 5th at less than 10% of the vote, is a good night. In an election where you are struggling to fenagle together a large enough coalition of voters to withstand a two-person race, a night that enourages more people to stay in the race to split the rest of the vote is a good night.
Now, Huntsman will stay in the race, energized by a third place finish, but Romney won't lose many voters to Huntsman. Santorum doesn't get to carry the mantle as the best alternative to Romney after finishing fifth in New Hampshire, and he didn't even win the Evangelical vote there (Romney did, actually, according to exit polls)! His competition is making it harder for someone to dethrone him. And Ron Paul continues to be a wild card, likely unable to win the nomination, but more than capable of preventing any other conservative from knocking him off. If Perry or Gingrich finishes second in South Carolina, that's quite possibly a perfect script for Romney. Three states, three wins, and, most importantly, three different second place finishers. Probably three different third-place finishers too. I'm sorry, whether you support Romney or not, that's a good night.
Fox News also claimed poor voter turnout. The voter turnout was 4% higher than in 2008, or roughly 10,000 more voters in the primary. Romney's percentages increased drastically in each of the state's 10 counties. He won 9 of 10 counties (his only loss a rural northern county with about 4,000-5,000 voters). Adding 2nd and 3rd place together gets enough votes to beat him by less than 2,000 votes. Adding 3rd through last place together and he beats that coalition of candidates. He routed the field. He didn't win by enough? Are you kidding me? Tell it like it is. Romney won. Big. They need to get Bill O'Reilly to do election coverage and stop spinning things towards the candidates the individual analysts support: leave that for CNN and MSNBC.
Fox News also called it a good night for Huntsman. CNN went the opposite: big night for Romney, bad night for Huntsman. No wonder there is such a sharp division among the citizens of the United States: there is such a sharp division among our news sources. They are both half-right. Romney holding his huge lead is good for him. Huntsman exceeding expectations is good for him. I can't wait to see what the expert panel will say if Romney wins by only 8% in South Carolina...
Instead, Fox touts it as a low-enthusiasm, small-turnout primary. More people voted. More people voted for Romney. He won by 15-17%. That is a bigger number than any other non-incumbent in a long time. Report the facts. I do give credit to Brett Baer who questioned the analysts further after they gave a 'meh' to Romney's night, presenting facts and asking "are you sure that isn't good for Romney. To which they replied again: meh. Good journalism. Bad analysis. [Here's a hint: if you want a fair and balanced analysis don't have two of three people on your expert panel from the Weekly Standard. Good grief, it's not good to get "out-fair and balanced" by CNN. Tell it like it is.]
I'm no political expert, but I'd say a night where the guys who are supposed to be your biggest "conservative" rivals are battling for 4th and 5th at less than 10% of the vote, is a good night. In an election where you are struggling to fenagle together a large enough coalition of voters to withstand a two-person race, a night that enourages more people to stay in the race to split the rest of the vote is a good night.
Now, Huntsman will stay in the race, energized by a third place finish, but Romney won't lose many voters to Huntsman. Santorum doesn't get to carry the mantle as the best alternative to Romney after finishing fifth in New Hampshire, and he didn't even win the Evangelical vote there (Romney did, actually, according to exit polls)! His competition is making it harder for someone to dethrone him. And Ron Paul continues to be a wild card, likely unable to win the nomination, but more than capable of preventing any other conservative from knocking him off. If Perry or Gingrich finishes second in South Carolina, that's quite possibly a perfect script for Romney. Three states, three wins, and, most importantly, three different second place finishers. Probably three different third-place finishers too. I'm sorry, whether you support Romney or not, that's a good night.
Fox News also claimed poor voter turnout. The voter turnout was 4% higher than in 2008, or roughly 10,000 more voters in the primary. Romney's percentages increased drastically in each of the state's 10 counties. He won 9 of 10 counties (his only loss a rural northern county with about 4,000-5,000 voters). Adding 2nd and 3rd place together gets enough votes to beat him by less than 2,000 votes. Adding 3rd through last place together and he beats that coalition of candidates. He routed the field. He didn't win by enough? Are you kidding me? Tell it like it is. Romney won. Big. They need to get Bill O'Reilly to do election coverage and stop spinning things towards the candidates the individual analysts support: leave that for CNN and MSNBC.
Fox News also called it a good night for Huntsman. CNN went the opposite: big night for Romney, bad night for Huntsman. No wonder there is such a sharp division among the citizens of the United States: there is such a sharp division among our news sources. They are both half-right. Romney holding his huge lead is good for him. Huntsman exceeding expectations is good for him. I can't wait to see what the expert panel will say if Romney wins by only 8% in South Carolina...
Instead, Fox touts it as a low-enthusiasm, small-turnout primary. More people voted. More people voted for Romney. He won by 15-17%. That is a bigger number than any other non-incumbent in a long time. Report the facts. I do give credit to Brett Baer who questioned the analysts further after they gave a 'meh' to Romney's night, presenting facts and asking "are you sure that isn't good for Romney. To which they replied again: meh. Good journalism. Bad analysis. [Here's a hint: if you want a fair and balanced analysis don't have two of three people on your expert panel from the Weekly Standard. Good grief, it's not good to get "out-fair and balanced" by CNN. Tell it like it is.]
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