Why Does This Game Matter
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
BYU-Notre Dame Post Game
BYU fans seem to be up in arms again after the Cougars delivered another lackluster performance on the road against a good, but not great, team. I think it boils down to a few major issues, both of which have almost always been the case at BYU, though it seemed that Van Noy, Sorensen, Hill, and Hoffman had "solved" some of those issues.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Notre Dame-BYU Contract
Several of you this week have asked me about Notre Dame's return trip to Provo, after the 2 games here. I am taking a class from Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick this semester and last week asked him a bit about his relationship with Tom Holmoe and Notre Dame's scheduling.
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
BYU @ Notre Dame Prediction, 11/23/2013
What BYU Has Faced So Far
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Previewing Notre Dame
There is only one team I have watched this season as closely as BYU: the Fighting Irish. They are a solid team, with some individual talent, but they are not an unbeatable, dominant opponent (nor were they last season), as BYU made Wisconsin look like in Madison two weeks ago. Here is my take on Notre Dame.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Previewing Wisconsin
Schedule
Wisconsin has amassed a 6-2 record and has been ranked in at least one poll each week this season excluding the two week-period following their 2nd loss of the season (by 7 points at Ohio State). My model shows Wisconsin as 6-0 in games against opponents outside of the 50, and 0-2 against teams in the top 50. In terms of their 2 losses, they had an opportunity to beat both Arizona State and Ohio State on the road. Not just "had a shot" to win, but in all actuality probably should have won both games.
In the 6 wins, they played 3 teams I rank in the bottom 30 of the FBS (Massachusetts, Purdue, and at Illinois), 1 FCS team, and 2 teams right around the middle of FBS teams (Northwestern and at Iowa), but still in the bottom half. So, they really haven't been tested, except in games that they were not successful. They have also yet to play a quality opponent at home.
My model ranks Wisconsin's schedule as the 86th most difficult in the country (or rather the 40th easiest schedule). Only 5 BCS conference teams have played an easier schedule than Wisconsin (3 of them are Big Ten teams! The other two are NC State and Baylor.).
BYU is the biggest test Wisconsin has the remainder of the season. It will be the toughest opponent they will have at home during the entire season. This is really Wisconsin's one shot at a signature win to put on their season given the losses at Arizona State and Ohio State. Winning at Minnesota in two weeks wouldn't be a bad resume builder, but it wouldn't be as impactful as beating BYU this weekend. This is one that Gary Anderson needs to get.
Strengths (Bold, italicized if in top 10)
Pass Defense: 195.1 yards/game (15th in the nation)
Rush Defense: 90.4 yards/game (5th)
Total Defense: 285.5 yards/game (6th)
Scoring Defense: 15.0 points/game (5th)
Red Zone Defense: 76.2% possession scored (25th)
Red Zone TD Defense: 38.1% TDs allowed (1st)
3rd down defense: 29.2% opponent conversion rate (6th)
Kickoff returns: 25.13 yards/return (14th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.25/game (26th)
Rush Offense: 287.0 yards/game (10th)
Total Offense: 494.6 yards/game (18th)
Scoring Offense: 38.4 points/game (20th)
Time of Possession: 33:23 (9th)
Weaknesses
Net Punting: 35.94 yard/punt (88th)
Interceptions: 7 (82nd)
Passing Offense: 207.6 yards/game (86th)
Clearly, Wisconsin's D has been superb across the board and in the red zone. However, a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule. In the Arizona State loss, the Badgers gave up 468 total yards, 32 points, and the defensive TD rate in the red zone was 57%. Against Ohio State, they gave up 192 rushing yards, 31 points, and only rushed for 104 yards. So, while they have been superb in their 6 wins against 6 teams in the bottom half of FBS, in their two quality opponents, they have shown vulnerabilities, even in categories where they are top 10 nationally.
What I Expect
I expect to see a Badger team that wants to be physical. Gary Anderson prided himself in past games against BYU to beat them physically. He was successful in that more often than he wasn't. Now he has real talent, size, and athleticism across the board. He should be able to succeed there again based on the increase in the caliber of players that he has at Wisconsin. What he doesn't have going into this game though is guys that care about this game more than any other game, like he did at Utah and Utah State. The Aggies could always play their best against BYU b/c half the players were Utah born and bred and grew up knowing about BYU. I'm not sure a lot of the Badgers could find Provo on a map. Most of them know nothing about the Cougars and this is just another game to them.
On the flip side, I expect BYU to play with a chip on their shoulder. After the way they have performed against Gary Anderson in recent years, they'll be the ones trying to prove something against him. He was familiar with Doman and the "old" Anae offense. Schematically, he might have some ideas of what to do with BYU that may not prove useful. Even if the schemes would be effective, Wisconsin doesn't know BYU's personnel inside and out like Anderson is used to with Utah and Utah State. The offense is obviously different than it has been in the past. Even the defense has transformed in recent seasons as Bronco has really dialed in and taking the defense up a level.
I'd be shocked to see Wisconsin blow BYU out. Heading into the season, I expected them to win handily. I expected Anderson to bring his intimate knowledge of BYU and put together a game plan similar to what he had done in the past and be successful. BYU has evolved though. It's not the same team Gary Anderson knew. It's not the same personnel. It's not a team that's unsure of itself or lacks confidence, as he faced so often in the past decade.
I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way. I think the Badgers trust their coach, I think they expect to win in the trenches. So if BYU got off to a quick start, I don't know how they would respond. How would Gary Anderson respond? He has never seen that in any of his games against BYU. I certainly don't EXPECT that. But what if BYU slows down the running game as it has with so many rushing attacks the past few seasons and Joel Stave can't get it going through the air, or Jared Abbrederis struggles in his first game back off of injury? The Badgers might be shell-shocked and unable to recover. They had a similar experience against Ohio State. Again, I certainly don't expect it, but it would shock me a lot less than BYU suffering the same fate.
What I do expect to see is a hard-fought contest between two good teams. I don't imagine the home crowd will have that big of an impact on the game, given that BYU doesn't audible much and does a lot of communicating on offense with hand signals. Plus it will be a sunny day, but with a high at 51, the crowd may not be as rowdy as on a 70-degree or 20-degree day. Normally, in a game like this that I expect to be back and forth, I'd say advantage home team. I think the bye week for BYU will help them prepare for that. I would love to see them try a trick play early on and stun the crowd. It would certainly surprise Gary Anderson who has seen only 1 or 2 of them in 10 games against BYU.
We shall see. My expectations with BYU are rarely reality.
Wisconsin has amassed a 6-2 record and has been ranked in at least one poll each week this season excluding the two week-period following their 2nd loss of the season (by 7 points at Ohio State). My model shows Wisconsin as 6-0 in games against opponents outside of the 50, and 0-2 against teams in the top 50. In terms of their 2 losses, they had an opportunity to beat both Arizona State and Ohio State on the road. Not just "had a shot" to win, but in all actuality probably should have won both games.
In the 6 wins, they played 3 teams I rank in the bottom 30 of the FBS (Massachusetts, Purdue, and at Illinois), 1 FCS team, and 2 teams right around the middle of FBS teams (Northwestern and at Iowa), but still in the bottom half. So, they really haven't been tested, except in games that they were not successful. They have also yet to play a quality opponent at home.
My model ranks Wisconsin's schedule as the 86th most difficult in the country (or rather the 40th easiest schedule). Only 5 BCS conference teams have played an easier schedule than Wisconsin (3 of them are Big Ten teams! The other two are NC State and Baylor.).
BYU is the biggest test Wisconsin has the remainder of the season. It will be the toughest opponent they will have at home during the entire season. This is really Wisconsin's one shot at a signature win to put on their season given the losses at Arizona State and Ohio State. Winning at Minnesota in two weeks wouldn't be a bad resume builder, but it wouldn't be as impactful as beating BYU this weekend. This is one that Gary Anderson needs to get.
Strengths (Bold, italicized if in top 10)
Pass Defense: 195.1 yards/game (15th in the nation)
Rush Defense: 90.4 yards/game (5th)
Total Defense: 285.5 yards/game (6th)
Scoring Defense: 15.0 points/game (5th)
Red Zone Defense: 76.2% possession scored (25th)
Red Zone TD Defense: 38.1% TDs allowed (1st)
3rd down defense: 29.2% opponent conversion rate (6th)
Kickoff returns: 25.13 yards/return (14th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.25/game (26th)
Rush Offense: 287.0 yards/game (10th)
Total Offense: 494.6 yards/game (18th)
Scoring Offense: 38.4 points/game (20th)
Time of Possession: 33:23 (9th)
Weaknesses
Net Punting: 35.94 yard/punt (88th)
Interceptions: 7 (82nd)
Passing Offense: 207.6 yards/game (86th)
Clearly, Wisconsin's D has been superb across the board and in the red zone. However, a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule. In the Arizona State loss, the Badgers gave up 468 total yards, 32 points, and the defensive TD rate in the red zone was 57%. Against Ohio State, they gave up 192 rushing yards, 31 points, and only rushed for 104 yards. So, while they have been superb in their 6 wins against 6 teams in the bottom half of FBS, in their two quality opponents, they have shown vulnerabilities, even in categories where they are top 10 nationally.
What I Expect
I expect to see a Badger team that wants to be physical. Gary Anderson prided himself in past games against BYU to beat them physically. He was successful in that more often than he wasn't. Now he has real talent, size, and athleticism across the board. He should be able to succeed there again based on the increase in the caliber of players that he has at Wisconsin. What he doesn't have going into this game though is guys that care about this game more than any other game, like he did at Utah and Utah State. The Aggies could always play their best against BYU b/c half the players were Utah born and bred and grew up knowing about BYU. I'm not sure a lot of the Badgers could find Provo on a map. Most of them know nothing about the Cougars and this is just another game to them.
On the flip side, I expect BYU to play with a chip on their shoulder. After the way they have performed against Gary Anderson in recent years, they'll be the ones trying to prove something against him. He was familiar with Doman and the "old" Anae offense. Schematically, he might have some ideas of what to do with BYU that may not prove useful. Even if the schemes would be effective, Wisconsin doesn't know BYU's personnel inside and out like Anderson is used to with Utah and Utah State. The offense is obviously different than it has been in the past. Even the defense has transformed in recent seasons as Bronco has really dialed in and taking the defense up a level.
I'd be shocked to see Wisconsin blow BYU out. Heading into the season, I expected them to win handily. I expected Anderson to bring his intimate knowledge of BYU and put together a game plan similar to what he had done in the past and be successful. BYU has evolved though. It's not the same team Gary Anderson knew. It's not the same personnel. It's not a team that's unsure of itself or lacks confidence, as he faced so often in the past decade.
I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way. I think the Badgers trust their coach, I think they expect to win in the trenches. So if BYU got off to a quick start, I don't know how they would respond. How would Gary Anderson respond? He has never seen that in any of his games against BYU. I certainly don't EXPECT that. But what if BYU slows down the running game as it has with so many rushing attacks the past few seasons and Joel Stave can't get it going through the air, or Jared Abbrederis struggles in his first game back off of injury? The Badgers might be shell-shocked and unable to recover. They had a similar experience against Ohio State. Again, I certainly don't expect it, but it would shock me a lot less than BYU suffering the same fate.
What I do expect to see is a hard-fought contest between two good teams. I don't imagine the home crowd will have that big of an impact on the game, given that BYU doesn't audible much and does a lot of communicating on offense with hand signals. Plus it will be a sunny day, but with a high at 51, the crowd may not be as rowdy as on a 70-degree or 20-degree day. Normally, in a game like this that I expect to be back and forth, I'd say advantage home team. I think the bye week for BYU will help them prepare for that. I would love to see them try a trick play early on and stun the crowd. It would certainly surprise Gary Anderson who has seen only 1 or 2 of them in 10 games against BYU.
We shall see. My expectations with BYU are rarely reality.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
BYU, the BCS, and Mo's Model
If the BCS went beyond 25 teams (similar to an "others receiving votes" category we see with human polls) BYU would be the 26th ranked team in the BCS standings. This is two spots below this week's opponent #24 Wisconsin and three below #23 Notre Dame. Former BYU opponents Texas and Houston are knocking on the door of the BCS as well.
BYU, on average across the 6 rankings the BCS uses for its computer poll, has a computer ranking 15 spots higher than Wisconsin. My own model has BYU ranked 14 spots higher than Wisconsin. Notre Dame has a slightly better computer ranking than BYU in the BCS. My model puts BYU slightly higher than Notre Dame right now. BYU can change its fate with one simple win on Saturday. It would vault them up in the BCS standings. It would certainly make them favorites against a depleted Notre Dame defense.
My model currently projects BYU a winner over Wisconsin by 1-3 points. If BYU and Notre Dame played this week, ND would be favored by 2 points, but, depending on the outcome against Wisconsin, that will change. A BYU win would push BYU further up the rankings. If Notre Dame struggles against Pitt, they are also apt to drop in my model, just as they did this week after struggling with Navy.
The most interesting factoid for BYU fans about my model: BYU leads the nation in wins against teams in the top 50 with 4, tied with Stanford. Those wins are Texas (#23), Georgia Tech (#35), Houston (#29), and Boise State (#48). Utah State is #51 and just missed the cut to give BYU 5, and one more than Stanford. Better luck next week, Aggies. Both BYU and Stanford will have chances this week to get their 5th top 50 win, though, admittedly, Stanford's win (Oregon) would be a lot more impressive than BYU's...
Virginia beating BYU is still the biggest "upset" of the year, according to my model, with Virginia currently ranked 70 spots below BYU. Other candidates: South Florida over Cincinnati (66 spots), Central Michigan over Ohio (53), Vanderbilt over Georgia (37), Boston College over Virginia Tech (30).
BYU, on average across the 6 rankings the BCS uses for its computer poll, has a computer ranking 15 spots higher than Wisconsin. My own model has BYU ranked 14 spots higher than Wisconsin. Notre Dame has a slightly better computer ranking than BYU in the BCS. My model puts BYU slightly higher than Notre Dame right now. BYU can change its fate with one simple win on Saturday. It would vault them up in the BCS standings. It would certainly make them favorites against a depleted Notre Dame defense.
My model currently projects BYU a winner over Wisconsin by 1-3 points. If BYU and Notre Dame played this week, ND would be favored by 2 points, but, depending on the outcome against Wisconsin, that will change. A BYU win would push BYU further up the rankings. If Notre Dame struggles against Pitt, they are also apt to drop in my model, just as they did this week after struggling with Navy.
The most interesting factoid for BYU fans about my model: BYU leads the nation in wins against teams in the top 50 with 4, tied with Stanford. Those wins are Texas (#23), Georgia Tech (#35), Houston (#29), and Boise State (#48). Utah State is #51 and just missed the cut to give BYU 5, and one more than Stanford. Better luck next week, Aggies. Both BYU and Stanford will have chances this week to get their 5th top 50 win, though, admittedly, Stanford's win (Oregon) would be a lot more impressive than BYU's...
Virginia beating BYU is still the biggest "upset" of the year, according to my model, with Virginia currently ranked 70 spots below BYU. Other candidates: South Florida over Cincinnati (66 spots), Central Michigan over Ohio (53), Vanderbilt over Georgia (37), Boston College over Virginia Tech (30).
BYU's Bye Week
Obviously, there were some negatives from BYU's bye week with the announcement that WR/PR JD Falslev and LB Austen Jorgensen are sidelined basically for the season. However, BYU did extremely well this off-week in a few major ways. Taysom Hill needed some rest before taking on what will be a physical Wisconsin team. There were 3 concussions suffered against Boise State and all three players expect to be back next week after taking the week off. In my opinion, with the offense clicking so much, another major benefit is that it can add additional wrinkles, perhaps a trick play even (that doesn't involve a rugby-style option play)???
Additionally, 10 of BYU's 11 FBS opponents played this weekend and went a combined 8-2. The 2 losses were by two of the bottom three on the schedule (Virginia and Nevada), both against ranked opponents where they were 17-point (or more) underdogs. 8-2 should help BYU significantly in terms of computer rankings. The win against Texas looks better and better as they move to 5-0 in the Big XII after a win this weekend against Jake Heaps and Kansas. While the Virginia loss continues to baffle as they dropped another game today by a wide margin, Utah did manage to beat Stanford a few weeks back (bye this weekend). Middle Tennessee is now just one win away from bowl eligibility and is in the hunt for a CUSA division crown after a road win in conference today. Utah State kept pace with Boise in the MWC with another 5 TD margin of victory. Georgia Tech has won 3 straight games after BYU beat them. Houston moved to 7-1 with another large victory in conference. Admittedly, they play the 2nd-5th place teams the next 4 weeks so college football nation will learn if they are contenders or pretenders soon. Boise State put a beat down on Colorado State on the road this week. Wisconsin won by 19 at Iowa in a game that ensures BYU will be on the road against a ranked opponent this week in Madison. Notre Dame laid an egg defensively against Navy but still pulled out the victory in a game that should likewise cement them in the BCS standings for BYU's trip there. Nevada had a respectable game against Fresno State, but, on the road, against a top 20 opponent, they fell short.
Without playing, BYU made some noise this weekend. CBS projected (unofficially) BYU to be 28th in the BCS standings last week, with 3 teams ahead of them losing this week (Texas Tech, Michigan, and Virginia Tech) and only 1 team behind them that had a somewhat big win over the weekend (Georgia beating Florida). According to CBS, BYU's average computer ranking is 22.25, and they should only move up (though it's possible any gains there will be offset by losses in human polls that are fickle enough to punish teams during bye weeks). My model has BYU in the top 25 again this week, after cracking it after Boise State for the first time this season. BYU should certainly be knocking on the door of the BCS standings for the first time since December of 2009. I'd say, all in all, not a bad week for a team that didn't play a game.
But it's all for naught though unless BYU earns it. It's nice to think that BYU will be somewhere between #25 and #27 Sunday night, but if they don't beat a Wisconsin team that should be ranked around 20-23 next week in Madison, it doesn't matter. It's always been my contention that BYU, Bronco, the team, Cougar fans, etc. need to stop talking and start winning. If BYU beat Virginia OR scored a few points in the red zone against Utah, BYU would be ranked right now no questions asked. They'd be deserving of that ranking too. The fact is, though, they lost those two games b/c they were not a top 25 team back then, and, therefore, not a BCS team now.
If BYU wants to be ranked at the end of the year, they know what they have to do. I'll give you a hint, it doesn't involve wondering "what if" for Virginia and Utah. It is all about beating Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Nothing says we belong in the top 15 like ending the season on a 10-game winning streak (which BYU could do if it won out and their bowl game). Nothing says we're setting our sights on a BCS Bowl game in 2014 like an 11-2 season, returning a lot of players including a QB, and heading into a significantly easier schedule in 2014 than 2013. Regardless of how it turns out, I'm sure Cougar Nation will hear something this off season about a BCS game. Someone always says something. The fact is though: BYU hasn't really been close since 2006, when one Hawaii loss would have put the greatest BYU team of my adult lifetime into the Sugar Bowl game against Georgia instead of a 38-8 beat down of Oregon in Las Vegas.
I am ready for BYU to put up, b/c I know we never shut up! The stage is set this week: BYU could not ask for a bigger stage to get it done. To quote Daryl from The Office: you've got to get out there and earn, son!
Additionally, 10 of BYU's 11 FBS opponents played this weekend and went a combined 8-2. The 2 losses were by two of the bottom three on the schedule (Virginia and Nevada), both against ranked opponents where they were 17-point (or more) underdogs. 8-2 should help BYU significantly in terms of computer rankings. The win against Texas looks better and better as they move to 5-0 in the Big XII after a win this weekend against Jake Heaps and Kansas. While the Virginia loss continues to baffle as they dropped another game today by a wide margin, Utah did manage to beat Stanford a few weeks back (bye this weekend). Middle Tennessee is now just one win away from bowl eligibility and is in the hunt for a CUSA division crown after a road win in conference today. Utah State kept pace with Boise in the MWC with another 5 TD margin of victory. Georgia Tech has won 3 straight games after BYU beat them. Houston moved to 7-1 with another large victory in conference. Admittedly, they play the 2nd-5th place teams the next 4 weeks so college football nation will learn if they are contenders or pretenders soon. Boise State put a beat down on Colorado State on the road this week. Wisconsin won by 19 at Iowa in a game that ensures BYU will be on the road against a ranked opponent this week in Madison. Notre Dame laid an egg defensively against Navy but still pulled out the victory in a game that should likewise cement them in the BCS standings for BYU's trip there. Nevada had a respectable game against Fresno State, but, on the road, against a top 20 opponent, they fell short.
Without playing, BYU made some noise this weekend. CBS projected (unofficially) BYU to be 28th in the BCS standings last week, with 3 teams ahead of them losing this week (Texas Tech, Michigan, and Virginia Tech) and only 1 team behind them that had a somewhat big win over the weekend (Georgia beating Florida). According to CBS, BYU's average computer ranking is 22.25, and they should only move up (though it's possible any gains there will be offset by losses in human polls that are fickle enough to punish teams during bye weeks). My model has BYU in the top 25 again this week, after cracking it after Boise State for the first time this season. BYU should certainly be knocking on the door of the BCS standings for the first time since December of 2009. I'd say, all in all, not a bad week for a team that didn't play a game.
But it's all for naught though unless BYU earns it. It's nice to think that BYU will be somewhere between #25 and #27 Sunday night, but if they don't beat a Wisconsin team that should be ranked around 20-23 next week in Madison, it doesn't matter. It's always been my contention that BYU, Bronco, the team, Cougar fans, etc. need to stop talking and start winning. If BYU beat Virginia OR scored a few points in the red zone against Utah, BYU would be ranked right now no questions asked. They'd be deserving of that ranking too. The fact is, though, they lost those two games b/c they were not a top 25 team back then, and, therefore, not a BCS team now.
If BYU wants to be ranked at the end of the year, they know what they have to do. I'll give you a hint, it doesn't involve wondering "what if" for Virginia and Utah. It is all about beating Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Nothing says we belong in the top 15 like ending the season on a 10-game winning streak (which BYU could do if it won out and their bowl game). Nothing says we're setting our sights on a BCS Bowl game in 2014 like an 11-2 season, returning a lot of players including a QB, and heading into a significantly easier schedule in 2014 than 2013. Regardless of how it turns out, I'm sure Cougar Nation will hear something this off season about a BCS game. Someone always says something. The fact is though: BYU hasn't really been close since 2006, when one Hawaii loss would have put the greatest BYU team of my adult lifetime into the Sugar Bowl game against Georgia instead of a 38-8 beat down of Oregon in Las Vegas.
I am ready for BYU to put up, b/c I know we never shut up! The stage is set this week: BYU could not ask for a bigger stage to get it done. To quote Daryl from The Office: you've got to get out there and earn, son!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)