First Thoughts
It looks nice. It looks significantly better than any schedule I remember in recent history (though this past season's schedule ended up being harder than we all originally thought). The lack of November home games is troubling again. The Hawaii series getting cancelled wasn't amazing, though it was a major upgrade to replace them with Nevada for the next two seasons. It's miles ahead of the old MWC schedule. It's not as good as Notre Dame's. However, one look at 2014 and 2015 and it seems that this may be the best independent schedule BYU and Holmoe will ever actually put together. For that reason alone, I have to tip my hat to him. It's mostly a collection of above-average opponents, which is something BYU has never had.
Individually
As with 2012, there isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say: BYU has no chance in this game. But there are fewer games than usual that I look at and say: BYU should have no problem with this one (I guess that's what makes this a tougher schedule than usual: the last six seasons I could pencil at least 5-7 wins in before the season even started). Middle Tennessee and Idaho State are the lone "guaranteed" wins. So, BYU will go 2-0 in those two, I just guaranteed it! The other 10 could go anywhere from 3-7 to 9-1. I certainly don't see BYU being worse than 5-7, especially with some well-placed byes that haven't been the case in previous years.
August and September have been particularly troubling for BYU under Bronco Mendenhall. Typically, BYU can pull off the opener, but the next three games have been huge stumbling blocks for Bronco. The last three seasons, BYU has won the opener before falling to 2-2 or 1-3. In fact, Max Hall was the only QB under Mendenhall to achieve a better record going 4-0 ad 3-1 his final two seasons, though he also had a 2-2 start in his first season as starter. John Beck started 1-3 and 2-2.
So, historical precedent would suggest BYU will at Virginia then lose two of the next three: Texas and Utah, before getting that win I already guaranteed against Middle Tennessee. Those are just historical trends (but they haven't varied much: there is as much history pointing to a 1-3 start as there is to Bronco coaching his team to better than a 2-2 start). Again, BYU could beat Texas. They took what turned out to be an average Cougar team down to their place and were one trick play away from winning that game. BYU and Utah are not exactly a coinflip, but the two teams are pretty even on the field, it's just in the psyche that Utah has the HUGE edge.
In the other games, Utah State has a new coach that is in way over his head, but has plenty of talent to work with. BYU killed Georgia Tech this season, they played Boise State to the wire with an injured QB, then a freshman QB, and they had Notre Dame on their heels for 2.5 quarters. Houston is a road game, but there will be plenty of BYU Cougar fans there and if Houston starts slowly, it might be close to a 50-50 crowd. Wisconsin will be tough, especially with Gary Andersen there, but BYU has a bye prior to the game to heal up and prepare. Nevada should be a very fun game.
The Hype
Many BYU fans, including myself, believed that the defense, the skill positions, and the OL would overcome Riley's shortcomings this season, even with some very difficult opponents. We bought into the hype. As a result, more so than any season I ever remember outside of the Crowton years, BYU fans stopped following the team. After the loss to Utah, some said "here we go again." After the loss to Boise, even more just quit caring. Fans didn't come to games. People didn't watch them on TV. Everyone complained about the kickoff times, the TV station, and the opponents. Holmoe learned how quickly BYU would become irrelevant, not just in terms of national exposure but in terms of his own fanbase.
Next season, there will be hype surrounding some individual players. Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, Jamaal Williams, Bronson Kaufusi, Daniel Sorensen. These are solid players. But there won't be much if any major buy-in from fans that this is a team capable of running the table. That is both good and bad. Fewer fans will start on the bandwagon, but fewer will also jump off after a loss or two b/c they are EXPECTING several losses in a rebuilding year. If BYU can pull off a perfect August and September, it would be a huge boost, given the perceived difficulty of the road with three BCS opponents. But, make no mistake, BYU will have to earn every bit of hype this season, from its own fans and from the rest of the country.
Alright, enough. I like the schedule. Don't get used to it though! The regular type of dumbed-down schedule and (mostly meaningless) 10-win seasons will be returning in 2014.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Thursday, January 24, 2013
BYU @ Gonzaga Prediction, 1/24/2013
There are three reasons BYU has no shot against Gonzaga tonight on the road.
1. They have no one that can guard Elias Harris. He is too strong for Josh Sharp or Brock Zylstra. He is too quick for Brandon Davies. Davies might be the best chance for BYU to stop Harris.
2. Kelly Olynyk is too big for anyone to guard but Davies or Austin (so Davies can't guard Harris). Olynyk knows how to draw fouls so if both of those guys get in foul trouble, it'll be up to Bronson Kaufusi. While I admire his toughness, I don't think Kaufusi is ready to handle a skilled, albeit uncoordinated, foreign-born player.
3. If BYU could somehow magically stop those two guys, it probably means that Kevin Pangos has extra space to roam the perimeter. If he has space he can hit threes or create off the dribble, which means more easy baskets for Olynyk and Harris.
Those three guys will score over 50 points, record 15 rebounds, and have 10 assists. BYU will be lucky to score 65. The Zag have 15 points from the other 6 guys that will see the floor (well, 9 guys after they clear their bench the last 5 minutes of the game).
I'm sure BYU will play some spirited ball, but I suspect they'll fall in an early hole, battle back before halftime, only to give up a little run before halftime that crushes the Cougars' spirits and chances. That has been a pretty consistent story through most of BYU's losses: early deficit, first half spurt, poor end to first half, poor start to second haf. Tonight's 12-point halftime deficit ends up as a blowout W at home for the Zags. Gonzaga 81, BYU 63
1. They have no one that can guard Elias Harris. He is too strong for Josh Sharp or Brock Zylstra. He is too quick for Brandon Davies. Davies might be the best chance for BYU to stop Harris.
2. Kelly Olynyk is too big for anyone to guard but Davies or Austin (so Davies can't guard Harris). Olynyk knows how to draw fouls so if both of those guys get in foul trouble, it'll be up to Bronson Kaufusi. While I admire his toughness, I don't think Kaufusi is ready to handle a skilled, albeit uncoordinated, foreign-born player.
3. If BYU could somehow magically stop those two guys, it probably means that Kevin Pangos has extra space to roam the perimeter. If he has space he can hit threes or create off the dribble, which means more easy baskets for Olynyk and Harris.
Those three guys will score over 50 points, record 15 rebounds, and have 10 assists. BYU will be lucky to score 65. The Zag have 15 points from the other 6 guys that will see the floor (well, 9 guys after they clear their bench the last 5 minutes of the game).
I'm sure BYU will play some spirited ball, but I suspect they'll fall in an early hole, battle back before halftime, only to give up a little run before halftime that crushes the Cougars' spirits and chances. That has been a pretty consistent story through most of BYU's losses: early deficit, first half spurt, poor end to first half, poor start to second haf. Tonight's 12-point halftime deficit ends up as a blowout W at home for the Zags. Gonzaga 81, BYU 63
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Saint Mary's at BYU Prediction, 1/16/2013
Saint Mary's isn't quite the team they were last season. They still have Matthew Delavedova. Waldo is a year older and more coordinated. But they really have lost a lot without Rob Jones. They haven't really played anyone, though they mostly took care of business. They lost at Gonzaga, not surprisingly. They fell at Northern Iowa, which isn't awful, but isn't good for a potential 2nd-best team in a trying-to-rise conference. The losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech are a little puzzling. They needed a miracle finish to beat Harvard. They struggled at home against San Francisco.
Stil, BYU is still a beatable team for SMC, even in the Marriott Center. Though BYU has come together defensively, which surprised me. With Winder's injury and losing Abouo and Hartsock, I thought they would struggle mightily on that half of the floor. And they did for a time (and still do from time to time), but they are improving quickly. Sharp hasn't yet run into any mismatches yet in the WCC at the PF position (he will against Gonzaga). Haws hasn't had to guard any amazing off-guards just yet. That won't change tonight, as Saint Mary's won't challenge those two defensively. Davies should be able to handle Waldo. If they can keep Delavedova from getting more than 5 assists, that should be enough to put the game away. Now, if Delavedova is running free and scores 20 with 10 assists, it's ballgame, BYU's NCAA Tourney hopes gone.
So, stop the ugly mouthguard and stop Saint Mary's. It's time for BYU to declare it's tournament-worthiness. I think they get that first signature win tonight, although beating Saint Mary's this season isn't the same as it has been in the past. They just haven't figured it out yet. BYU 81, SMC 72.
Stil, BYU is still a beatable team for SMC, even in the Marriott Center. Though BYU has come together defensively, which surprised me. With Winder's injury and losing Abouo and Hartsock, I thought they would struggle mightily on that half of the floor. And they did for a time (and still do from time to time), but they are improving quickly. Sharp hasn't yet run into any mismatches yet in the WCC at the PF position (he will against Gonzaga). Haws hasn't had to guard any amazing off-guards just yet. That won't change tonight, as Saint Mary's won't challenge those two defensively. Davies should be able to handle Waldo. If they can keep Delavedova from getting more than 5 assists, that should be enough to put the game away. Now, if Delavedova is running free and scores 20 with 10 assists, it's ballgame, BYU's NCAA Tourney hopes gone.
So, stop the ugly mouthguard and stop Saint Mary's. It's time for BYU to declare it's tournament-worthiness. I think they get that first signature win tonight, although beating Saint Mary's this season isn't the same as it has been in the past. They just haven't figured it out yet. BYU 81, SMC 72.
BYU to NCAA Tourney? Improbable, as of 1/16/2013
I know I've been a naysayer for most of this football and basketball season, and I'm going to continue that here: I think BYU will have to see significant improvement before they can make it into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. To me, it's simple math: their RPI will be good, but it won't be high enough to account for the fact that they didn't actually beat anybody.
RPI
Currently, depending on who you believe, BYU is somewhere between 30 and 40 in the RPI. Their non-conference strength of schedule was pretty good actually. This is for two major reasons: one, they played four potential NCAA tournament teams; two, they played a lot of games away from home (5 true road games and 4 neutral site affairs). Wins against Santa Clara, Weber State, Virginia Tech, and Montana, which looked like they might potentially be top 100 RPI wins are all getting worse as the season progresses (it was to be expected from Weber and Montana in the Big Sky, where they keep winning but dropping, but the other teams are losing lots of games and dropping as a result). The loss to Florida State wasn't necesarily bad (except when viewed in the context of the actual game or final score) when it happened, but as FSU continues to struggle, that loss is starting to look quite bad.
The RPI is also kept high b/c 8 teams they played are between RPI 100-200. Lastly, none of their opponents are below the 300-line for RPI. Given their remaining schedule, if BYU performs reasonably well (even 12-4 in conference play should keep them there), their RPI should stay in the 30-50 range, which is good enough to warrant consideration as a bubble team.
Quality Wins
Quite simply, BYU has ZERO quality wins. Teams from non-BCS leagues typically need to have at least two top-100 RPI, non-conference wins, if not three or four. BYU was 0-4. They beat Santa Clara for their lone RPI top-100 win. They have probably 7 more games this season against top 100 opponents: Gonzaga (twice), Saint Mary's (twice), Santa Clara (at home), Utah State (at home), and another RPI top 100 opponent in WCC tournament. This assumes that Santa Clara and Utah State remain top 100 teams, which is no guarantee, particularly if they both lose to BYU. Gonzaga will beat BYU twice. Saint Mary's COULD beat BYU twice. Let's just say BYU goes 3-4 in the remaining 7 games (which I believe is about right): that's still just 3-8 in 11 games against top 100 opponents. It's also 1-6 against the RPI top 50, i.e. the tournament teams. That probably puts them on the wrong side of the bubble.
If BYU manages to somehow go 4-3 (a win at home against Gonzaga or against St. Mary's in the WCC Tourney), they are 2-5 against the top 50 and 4-7 against the top 100 (with potentially another game/loss against Gonzaga in the WCC Final). Just as with the RPI, it would be good enough to warrant consideration.
Bad Combination
I think if BYU is hoping to do well enough to "warrant consideration" they will end up on the bad side of it this season. They provided a very entertaining play-in game last year but were down double-digits for 35 minutes against Marquette. Perhaps the field worsens this season. Perhaps UConn's postseason ban and UNC's struggles open up two additional slots into the tourney that are typically full and that's enough to get BYU in. Maybe something happens to improve BYU's chances. Maybe Santa Clara and Virginia Tech can start winning again and make those wins look better. Maybe Utah somehow miraculously competes in the Pac 12 and that somehow magically moves them into the top 100. Again, these are all outside of BYU's control.
What can BYU do to stay in it? Well, a loss to Saint Mary's tonight closes the door entirely. A win keeps it open for a while longe. But BYU will need to sweep the rest of WCC play, excluding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. They'll need a split against both of those teams. They'll need to beat Utah State. They'll need to advance to the championship game of the WCC Tourney. And compete against Gonzaga there.
In short, until BYU starts looking like an NCAA Tournament team, I believe they'll be on the outside looking in. They played most of November and December looking like a young, inexperienced team with two great players. They'll need to play the rest of January and February looking like the contender they weren't their first four tests...
RPI
Currently, depending on who you believe, BYU is somewhere between 30 and 40 in the RPI. Their non-conference strength of schedule was pretty good actually. This is for two major reasons: one, they played four potential NCAA tournament teams; two, they played a lot of games away from home (5 true road games and 4 neutral site affairs). Wins against Santa Clara, Weber State, Virginia Tech, and Montana, which looked like they might potentially be top 100 RPI wins are all getting worse as the season progresses (it was to be expected from Weber and Montana in the Big Sky, where they keep winning but dropping, but the other teams are losing lots of games and dropping as a result). The loss to Florida State wasn't necesarily bad (except when viewed in the context of the actual game or final score) when it happened, but as FSU continues to struggle, that loss is starting to look quite bad.
The RPI is also kept high b/c 8 teams they played are between RPI 100-200. Lastly, none of their opponents are below the 300-line for RPI. Given their remaining schedule, if BYU performs reasonably well (even 12-4 in conference play should keep them there), their RPI should stay in the 30-50 range, which is good enough to warrant consideration as a bubble team.
Quality Wins
Quite simply, BYU has ZERO quality wins. Teams from non-BCS leagues typically need to have at least two top-100 RPI, non-conference wins, if not three or four. BYU was 0-4. They beat Santa Clara for their lone RPI top-100 win. They have probably 7 more games this season against top 100 opponents: Gonzaga (twice), Saint Mary's (twice), Santa Clara (at home), Utah State (at home), and another RPI top 100 opponent in WCC tournament. This assumes that Santa Clara and Utah State remain top 100 teams, which is no guarantee, particularly if they both lose to BYU. Gonzaga will beat BYU twice. Saint Mary's COULD beat BYU twice. Let's just say BYU goes 3-4 in the remaining 7 games (which I believe is about right): that's still just 3-8 in 11 games against top 100 opponents. It's also 1-6 against the RPI top 50, i.e. the tournament teams. That probably puts them on the wrong side of the bubble.
If BYU manages to somehow go 4-3 (a win at home against Gonzaga or against St. Mary's in the WCC Tourney), they are 2-5 against the top 50 and 4-7 against the top 100 (with potentially another game/loss against Gonzaga in the WCC Final). Just as with the RPI, it would be good enough to warrant consideration.
Bad Combination
I think if BYU is hoping to do well enough to "warrant consideration" they will end up on the bad side of it this season. They provided a very entertaining play-in game last year but were down double-digits for 35 minutes against Marquette. Perhaps the field worsens this season. Perhaps UConn's postseason ban and UNC's struggles open up two additional slots into the tourney that are typically full and that's enough to get BYU in. Maybe something happens to improve BYU's chances. Maybe Santa Clara and Virginia Tech can start winning again and make those wins look better. Maybe Utah somehow miraculously competes in the Pac 12 and that somehow magically moves them into the top 100. Again, these are all outside of BYU's control.
What can BYU do to stay in it? Well, a loss to Saint Mary's tonight closes the door entirely. A win keeps it open for a while longe. But BYU will need to sweep the rest of WCC play, excluding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. They'll need a split against both of those teams. They'll need to beat Utah State. They'll need to advance to the championship game of the WCC Tourney. And compete against Gonzaga there.
In short, until BYU starts looking like an NCAA Tournament team, I believe they'll be on the outside looking in. They played most of November and December looking like a young, inexperienced team with two great players. They'll need to play the rest of January and February looking like the contender they weren't their first four tests...
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Why I Love (and Hate) College Football: Inches, Footwork, and Momentum
College football is a game decided by inches, footwork, and momentum, more so than any other sport. An analysis of BYU's season, the national championship game, and countless other games will verify that. Generally, that is what makes it great. In the case of BYU, the Natty Title game, or several SEC-against-nobody games this year, it's what made them suck.
Title Game Punt Miscue
Notre Dame was beat up and outclassed, no doubt. But how different is that game if one first quarter play goes differently? If the ND gunner is a few inches to the left or the ref is a few inches to the right, or if the punt returner adjusts his footwork slightly differently, the entire outcome can change. Imagine if ND gets the ball at the Bama 25-yard line and goes in to score. They take a few more minutes for their D to rest and adjust. The score is 7-3 or 7-7. Bama gets the ball with 4 minutes left in the quarter, starting closer to the 20 than the 40. Even if they march down and score, it'll take the remainder of the quarter. Maybe it's 14-3 or 14-7 early in the second quarter instead of 21-0. ND starts believing, their D is getting more rest, their O has more confidence and less desperate, and Bama starts doubting.
But, at 14-0 midway through the first Q, it falls apart b/c of inches, footwork, and momentum. The DL start taking slightly different angles trying to make big plays. That opens up cutback lanes that Lacy and Yeldon exploit. At 14-7, those lanes aren't there. Everett Golson is trying to make big plays at 21-0 and the O abandons the running game (which was their only chance against Bama). Momentum killed their chances. Again, one play in the 1st Q, decided by inches and footwork, completely changing momentum, changes the game.
BYU at Utah Snap
With BYU, the same thing can be said. Imagine the Utah game, a bad snap when Riley is changing a play changes the tide. Utah scores two TDs in 61 seconds b/c of inches, footwork, and momentum. If that snap is inches to the right and hits Riley Nelson on the way back, perhaps BYU recovers and that drive ends in points. At the very least, Utah will be forced to drive the length of the field to score ONCE (something they didn't do all game long), instead of scoring a TD on that play, and pinning BYU deep on the next possession before forcing a three-and-out and getting great field position. One play, decided by inches, Riley Nelson and Michael Alisa not properly moving their feet to recover, changes momentum. And the outcome.
Several Other Close Calls
There's a myriad of plays that were "so close" against Boise State. Riley Nelson's pick in the end zone ended a possession with no points instead of 3. Riley Nelson didn't move his feet on a play that ended up in a pick 6 for Boise State. A missed block on BYU's 2-point conversion forced Taysom Hill into a situation where he had no chance. A missed tackle on Boise State's final possession allowed Boise State to run out the clock. All of them were just a matter of footwork: poor by Ross Apo on his route, poor by Riley Nelson in the pocket, the right side of the line had problems with footwork all season, and I believe it was Brandon Ogletree that took a bad angle when he had a tackle for loss that could have given Taysom one last possession.
Oregon State was decided by a couple of tipped passes. Inches gave Oregon State a TD and a pick 6 in the 4th Q, instead of a FG and a BYU first down.
The Notre Dame game had several close calls as well, one of which, late in the third got the crowd back into the game and changed momentum. SJSU was the same way. An analysis of the BYU wins would yield the same result: one play changed everything. The right tackle with some awful footwork trying to block Van Noy starts a 14-point barrage by KVN and gives BYU a bowl victory.
In the End, It's Why We Love It...
Inches, footwork, and momentum were the reason Bama won the national championship and the reason BYU went 8-5. Sometimes, it is a play in the 1st Q, sometimes it's in the 4th, but every college football game hinges on one or two plays, decided by inches and footwork, that completely alter the course of a game. Momentum matters in CFB. In basketball, coaches get a schwack of timeouts and can slow momentum. With 3 per half, coaches seem unwilling to use them to slow momentum. But in the ultimate view of college football, it's why we love, and hate, it!
Hopefully experience and coaching changes can swing some of those inches the other way in BYU's favor next season, and away from the SEC champ in the National Championship hunt next season. If it's Saban in the hunt, though, I don't trust him to NOT take advantage as he's done when Colt McCoy got hurt or when the refs blew the muffed punt. As far as BYU is concerned, they don't always seem to know how to take advantage, and they also seem to always be the one on the bad end of the inches, footwork, and momentum...KVN and Hoffman can. Will they have enough teammates and coaching next season that can too? We shall see.
Title Game Punt Miscue
Notre Dame was beat up and outclassed, no doubt. But how different is that game if one first quarter play goes differently? If the ND gunner is a few inches to the left or the ref is a few inches to the right, or if the punt returner adjusts his footwork slightly differently, the entire outcome can change. Imagine if ND gets the ball at the Bama 25-yard line and goes in to score. They take a few more minutes for their D to rest and adjust. The score is 7-3 or 7-7. Bama gets the ball with 4 minutes left in the quarter, starting closer to the 20 than the 40. Even if they march down and score, it'll take the remainder of the quarter. Maybe it's 14-3 or 14-7 early in the second quarter instead of 21-0. ND starts believing, their D is getting more rest, their O has more confidence and less desperate, and Bama starts doubting.
But, at 14-0 midway through the first Q, it falls apart b/c of inches, footwork, and momentum. The DL start taking slightly different angles trying to make big plays. That opens up cutback lanes that Lacy and Yeldon exploit. At 14-7, those lanes aren't there. Everett Golson is trying to make big plays at 21-0 and the O abandons the running game (which was their only chance against Bama). Momentum killed their chances. Again, one play in the 1st Q, decided by inches and footwork, completely changing momentum, changes the game.
BYU at Utah Snap
With BYU, the same thing can be said. Imagine the Utah game, a bad snap when Riley is changing a play changes the tide. Utah scores two TDs in 61 seconds b/c of inches, footwork, and momentum. If that snap is inches to the right and hits Riley Nelson on the way back, perhaps BYU recovers and that drive ends in points. At the very least, Utah will be forced to drive the length of the field to score ONCE (something they didn't do all game long), instead of scoring a TD on that play, and pinning BYU deep on the next possession before forcing a three-and-out and getting great field position. One play, decided by inches, Riley Nelson and Michael Alisa not properly moving their feet to recover, changes momentum. And the outcome.
Several Other Close Calls
There's a myriad of plays that were "so close" against Boise State. Riley Nelson's pick in the end zone ended a possession with no points instead of 3. Riley Nelson didn't move his feet on a play that ended up in a pick 6 for Boise State. A missed block on BYU's 2-point conversion forced Taysom Hill into a situation where he had no chance. A missed tackle on Boise State's final possession allowed Boise State to run out the clock. All of them were just a matter of footwork: poor by Ross Apo on his route, poor by Riley Nelson in the pocket, the right side of the line had problems with footwork all season, and I believe it was Brandon Ogletree that took a bad angle when he had a tackle for loss that could have given Taysom one last possession.
Oregon State was decided by a couple of tipped passes. Inches gave Oregon State a TD and a pick 6 in the 4th Q, instead of a FG and a BYU first down.
The Notre Dame game had several close calls as well, one of which, late in the third got the crowd back into the game and changed momentum. SJSU was the same way. An analysis of the BYU wins would yield the same result: one play changed everything. The right tackle with some awful footwork trying to block Van Noy starts a 14-point barrage by KVN and gives BYU a bowl victory.
In the End, It's Why We Love It...
Inches, footwork, and momentum were the reason Bama won the national championship and the reason BYU went 8-5. Sometimes, it is a play in the 1st Q, sometimes it's in the 4th, but every college football game hinges on one or two plays, decided by inches and footwork, that completely alter the course of a game. Momentum matters in CFB. In basketball, coaches get a schwack of timeouts and can slow momentum. With 3 per half, coaches seem unwilling to use them to slow momentum. But in the ultimate view of college football, it's why we love, and hate, it!
Hopefully experience and coaching changes can swing some of those inches the other way in BYU's favor next season, and away from the SEC champ in the National Championship hunt next season. If it's Saban in the hunt, though, I don't trust him to NOT take advantage as he's done when Colt McCoy got hurt or when the refs blew the muffed punt. As far as BYU is concerned, they don't always seem to know how to take advantage, and they also seem to always be the one on the bad end of the inches, footwork, and momentum...KVN and Hoffman can. Will they have enough teammates and coaching next season that can too? We shall see.
Monday, January 7, 2013
College Football's Last Game of 2012 Season
Well, the end of a somewhat tumultous 2012 season is here, for now. We're just 4 weeks from national letter of intent day. Spring ball starts a little bit after that. So the break won't be for long. But alas, this is the last game for nearly 8 months.
So, what's going to happen tonight in Miami?
Most people believe the SEC will continue to exert its dominance. Many say ND is overrated, lucky to be playing in the game at all, and going to get outmanned, outhustled, and outcoached. I say, an undefeated team that beat the Pac 12 champ, the Big XII co-champ, one of the top 4 teams in the Big Ten, and the preseason #1 doesn't support that logic. 10 of their 12 opponents were bowl-eligible (though Miami excluded itself from the postseason).
The manner in which they won some of those games was absolutely lucky. Some of it came as a result of questionable, or straight bad, officiating. But any team that can go 12-0 against that kind of schedule is more than lucky or a beneficiary of poor officiating.
First off, Notre Dame is NOT any of the previous 6 runners-up in National Championship games. The most recent was an SEC team, so, the SEC was guaranteed that one. Prior to that was a timing-oriented wide open rushing attack in Oregon. Other losers included pass-heavy Oklahoma and Texas and a balanced (but not elite) offense in Ohio State. From a defensive standpoint, OU and Ohio State didn't bring top 10 defenses to the game. Texas did have a great D, but they had an unproven back-up QB when Colt McCoy got hurt.
Notre Dame does not have an elite offense like Texas did in 2009. However, unlike Texas, Notre Dame has a much more SEC-style offense: power running, followed by play-action passing, run by a mobile QB. Texas had a more gimmick-style attack. And again, the back-up QB, who was forced into action for 3 quarters, was unproven. ND has two backups with significant playing experience.
Notre Dame also brings an SEC-style defense: three big, strong, fast defensive linemen; athletic and physical linebackers; and a secondary that can cover long enough and hit hard enough to back up from their front 7. They can line up in a 3-4 or 4-3 with their OLBs size and strength.
Notre Dame stands a better chance than the 5 previous non-SEC teams during this recent SEC-dominant stretch (which I believe is aided by a fact that their champion is guaranteed a CHANCE at the title, which is not afforded to any other league champion). A&M exposed a myth of the SEC this season, in my opinion. The reason SEC defenses look so dominant is b/c the SEC has poor offenses. Enter A&M with a dynamic QB and a wide open, no-fear offensive philosophy and they fared just fine in the SEC. A backfield with Mark Engram and Trent Richardson could run through the SEC. Cam Newton could run through the SEC without slowing down. Good offenses can beat SEC defenses. Can Notre Dame's trio of talented backs, mobile QB, and All-American Tyler Eifert beat a good SEC defense?
Possible. This is not one of the Alabama defenses of the previous few years. There are chinks in the armor. If ND can get the power-running attack going, there are opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Theo Riddick can be a game-changer both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.
Obviously I'm biased, but I really believe ND has a legitimate chance tonight. I think they shock the world, continue to expose the SEC myth, and bruise Bama physically, mentally, psychologically, and pride-ologically. ND 16, Bama 13 (Bama scores late to close the gap, which is 16-6 heading into the final minutes).
So, what's going to happen tonight in Miami?
Most people believe the SEC will continue to exert its dominance. Many say ND is overrated, lucky to be playing in the game at all, and going to get outmanned, outhustled, and outcoached. I say, an undefeated team that beat the Pac 12 champ, the Big XII co-champ, one of the top 4 teams in the Big Ten, and the preseason #1 doesn't support that logic. 10 of their 12 opponents were bowl-eligible (though Miami excluded itself from the postseason).
The manner in which they won some of those games was absolutely lucky. Some of it came as a result of questionable, or straight bad, officiating. But any team that can go 12-0 against that kind of schedule is more than lucky or a beneficiary of poor officiating.
First off, Notre Dame is NOT any of the previous 6 runners-up in National Championship games. The most recent was an SEC team, so, the SEC was guaranteed that one. Prior to that was a timing-oriented wide open rushing attack in Oregon. Other losers included pass-heavy Oklahoma and Texas and a balanced (but not elite) offense in Ohio State. From a defensive standpoint, OU and Ohio State didn't bring top 10 defenses to the game. Texas did have a great D, but they had an unproven back-up QB when Colt McCoy got hurt.
Notre Dame does not have an elite offense like Texas did in 2009. However, unlike Texas, Notre Dame has a much more SEC-style offense: power running, followed by play-action passing, run by a mobile QB. Texas had a more gimmick-style attack. And again, the back-up QB, who was forced into action for 3 quarters, was unproven. ND has two backups with significant playing experience.
Notre Dame also brings an SEC-style defense: three big, strong, fast defensive linemen; athletic and physical linebackers; and a secondary that can cover long enough and hit hard enough to back up from their front 7. They can line up in a 3-4 or 4-3 with their OLBs size and strength.
Notre Dame stands a better chance than the 5 previous non-SEC teams during this recent SEC-dominant stretch (which I believe is aided by a fact that their champion is guaranteed a CHANCE at the title, which is not afforded to any other league champion). A&M exposed a myth of the SEC this season, in my opinion. The reason SEC defenses look so dominant is b/c the SEC has poor offenses. Enter A&M with a dynamic QB and a wide open, no-fear offensive philosophy and they fared just fine in the SEC. A backfield with Mark Engram and Trent Richardson could run through the SEC. Cam Newton could run through the SEC without slowing down. Good offenses can beat SEC defenses. Can Notre Dame's trio of talented backs, mobile QB, and All-American Tyler Eifert beat a good SEC defense?
Possible. This is not one of the Alabama defenses of the previous few years. There are chinks in the armor. If ND can get the power-running attack going, there are opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Theo Riddick can be a game-changer both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.
Obviously I'm biased, but I really believe ND has a legitimate chance tonight. I think they shock the world, continue to expose the SEC myth, and bruise Bama physically, mentally, psychologically, and pride-ologically. ND 16, Bama 13 (Bama scores late to close the gap, which is 16-6 heading into the final minutes).
Friday, January 4, 2013
On Anae, KVN, Hoffman, and Wrubell
Changes on O: Return of the Anae
By all accounts, Robert Anae is back as BYU's OC. While his red zone playcalling was suspect, his O-lines played better than any of the groups BYU has had the past two years. His teams turned the ball over less, excluding Max Hall's (repeated) mental blowups against TCU and Utah.
With that said, I don't think Doman got a fair shake. Bronco basically forced him to start Riley Nelson this season, hamstringing Doman and essentially forcing poor offense. Then Doman gets axed because his offense doesn't produce (because of the poor QB play). I think he did the best he could, in only his second year as offensive coordinator, given the QB he was forced to use.
Kyle Van Noy
Game-changer Kyle Van Noy heard back from the NFL Draft Board and heard good news, yet he came back anyways. Knowing that he has a future career in the NFL regardless (barring injury), it would be tough to turn down an opportunity to play that 2013 BYU schedule, if he is a true BYU guy and understands the situation, which clearly he does. If he wants a challenge, that would be a real challenge. I am obviously stoked he's back, as it gives BYU a much better chance to win games. His ability to force turnovers, pressure QBs, and play in space could be the difference in what should be close games against Texas, Utah, and Boise State. I've obviously never been in his position, but I think he made the choice I would make, but the choice that dozens of other young men mess up on every single year. He would leave BYU a hero after his career through 2012. If he can help BYU get to 10 wins in 2013, he would leave BYU a legend.
Don't Hassle the Hoff
Cody Hoffman made the same choice. He would have been drafted, though not as high as KVN. But, again, an opportunity to play the best schedule in BYU history would be awesome. In addition, he can rewrite the BYU record books. Receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs, etc. All those that Collie and Pitta set in three years, Hoffman is just behind with one year to go. In addition, he should have a QB more capable of getting him the ball, with a much more balanced and dynamic offensive approach. He should be able to avoid double coverage too. Anae runs more draws, throws more screens, and uses the tight ends more than Doman did. That means defenses can't just key on Hoffman (though that didn't seem to help SDSU). Plus, he's freaking good even if the defenses do key on him. He should break every major career record and set the new bar so high it'll be tough for anyone to reach it. And he can help BYU win some close games, just like Van Noy.
Greg Wrubell Drinking the Koolaid
After the announcements of KVN and Hoff, Greg Wrubell said that now BYU is even more stacked and should make a push for a BCS game now. I have to chuckle at that. Yes, that is the guy BYU fans should want as the voice of BYU. I'm not that guy. I think BYU now has a much better chance to get to 10 wins. I still don't think they'll reach it, but they COULD reach it. Without Hoff and KVN, without improved offensive line play and ball security brought about by Anae, BYU would have to scratch and claw to get to bowl eligibility.
I applaud Wrubell for his optimism. But BYU is far from stacked. They have to rebuild their DL, they need to figure who can actually play on the O-Line, and they need to take care of the ball. If all three of those happen against the good opponents, not just the mediocre ones, then there's a chance they win 10 games. They won't win at Wisconsin. They'll probably lose at least one home game. 10 wins is extremely optimistic. BCS game would be miraculous. But thanks, Wrubell, I needed a good chuckle to start the new year!
By all accounts, Robert Anae is back as BYU's OC. While his red zone playcalling was suspect, his O-lines played better than any of the groups BYU has had the past two years. His teams turned the ball over less, excluding Max Hall's (repeated) mental blowups against TCU and Utah.
With that said, I don't think Doman got a fair shake. Bronco basically forced him to start Riley Nelson this season, hamstringing Doman and essentially forcing poor offense. Then Doman gets axed because his offense doesn't produce (because of the poor QB play). I think he did the best he could, in only his second year as offensive coordinator, given the QB he was forced to use.
Kyle Van Noy
Game-changer Kyle Van Noy heard back from the NFL Draft Board and heard good news, yet he came back anyways. Knowing that he has a future career in the NFL regardless (barring injury), it would be tough to turn down an opportunity to play that 2013 BYU schedule, if he is a true BYU guy and understands the situation, which clearly he does. If he wants a challenge, that would be a real challenge. I am obviously stoked he's back, as it gives BYU a much better chance to win games. His ability to force turnovers, pressure QBs, and play in space could be the difference in what should be close games against Texas, Utah, and Boise State. I've obviously never been in his position, but I think he made the choice I would make, but the choice that dozens of other young men mess up on every single year. He would leave BYU a hero after his career through 2012. If he can help BYU get to 10 wins in 2013, he would leave BYU a legend.
Don't Hassle the Hoff
Cody Hoffman made the same choice. He would have been drafted, though not as high as KVN. But, again, an opportunity to play the best schedule in BYU history would be awesome. In addition, he can rewrite the BYU record books. Receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs, etc. All those that Collie and Pitta set in three years, Hoffman is just behind with one year to go. In addition, he should have a QB more capable of getting him the ball, with a much more balanced and dynamic offensive approach. He should be able to avoid double coverage too. Anae runs more draws, throws more screens, and uses the tight ends more than Doman did. That means defenses can't just key on Hoffman (though that didn't seem to help SDSU). Plus, he's freaking good even if the defenses do key on him. He should break every major career record and set the new bar so high it'll be tough for anyone to reach it. And he can help BYU win some close games, just like Van Noy.
Greg Wrubell Drinking the Koolaid
After the announcements of KVN and Hoff, Greg Wrubell said that now BYU is even more stacked and should make a push for a BCS game now. I have to chuckle at that. Yes, that is the guy BYU fans should want as the voice of BYU. I'm not that guy. I think BYU now has a much better chance to get to 10 wins. I still don't think they'll reach it, but they COULD reach it. Without Hoff and KVN, without improved offensive line play and ball security brought about by Anae, BYU would have to scratch and claw to get to bowl eligibility.
I applaud Wrubell for his optimism. But BYU is far from stacked. They have to rebuild their DL, they need to figure who can actually play on the O-Line, and they need to take care of the ball. If all three of those happen against the good opponents, not just the mediocre ones, then there's a chance they win 10 games. They won't win at Wisconsin. They'll probably lose at least one home game. 10 wins is extremely optimistic. BCS game would be miraculous. But thanks, Wrubell, I needed a good chuckle to start the new year!
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Post-Game Thoughts, LMU at BYU 1/3/2012
I had a chance to see BYU hoops live and in person for the first and only time this season. I'm a little more impressed than I had been previously. Granted, I picked a great game to go to, with BYU raining threes from many different positions on the court. They had transition baskets, they rebounded, they played within themselves offensively, and had an easier opponent than the 4 teams that beat them up in the non-conference.
But one thing I hadn't given BYU credit for was it's defense. They played stellar defense tonight. LMU didn't miss many, if any, open looks, so the fact that they shot 20-something % is a testament to how few of their shots were uncontesed. The second half showed an absolutely dominant Brandon Davies on the defensive end of the floor. He contested everything that entered the lane and must have had 7 or 8 defensive rebounds in the second half, adding a blocked shot as well. All while committing only 1 foul. Offensively, he played within himself, only taking 6 shots and adding 3 assists (including a nice behind-the-defender pass to Josh Sharp for a nice dunk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvJfLq1kwLY), with only 1 turnover, despite seeing constant double teams. He did seem to play with a little less energy on offense, which will trouble BYU in closer games against better teams and in road venues. He is coming off the sprained ankle, so hopefully that is the reason for not bringing intensity on both sides of the court.
I still worry about the offense. If Carlino didn't hit 3 threes in a row in the first half, this game could have turned out quite differently. That was a crucial part of a 23-4 BYU stretch, which ultimately got BYU rolling and sent LMU packing mentally.
We'll have to see what plays out going forward, but BYU showed tonight that it has what it takes, at least defensively, to compete with Saint Mary's in the battle for the #2 seed in the conference tourney. Though if the offense doesn't come around (i.e. if a few others guys don't start to show they can produce on at least a semi-regular basis), it may not matter how they perform defensively.
But one thing I hadn't given BYU credit for was it's defense. They played stellar defense tonight. LMU didn't miss many, if any, open looks, so the fact that they shot 20-something % is a testament to how few of their shots were uncontesed. The second half showed an absolutely dominant Brandon Davies on the defensive end of the floor. He contested everything that entered the lane and must have had 7 or 8 defensive rebounds in the second half, adding a blocked shot as well. All while committing only 1 foul. Offensively, he played within himself, only taking 6 shots and adding 3 assists (including a nice behind-the-defender pass to Josh Sharp for a nice dunk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvJfLq1kwLY), with only 1 turnover, despite seeing constant double teams. He did seem to play with a little less energy on offense, which will trouble BYU in closer games against better teams and in road venues. He is coming off the sprained ankle, so hopefully that is the reason for not bringing intensity on both sides of the court.
I still worry about the offense. If Carlino didn't hit 3 threes in a row in the first half, this game could have turned out quite differently. That was a crucial part of a 23-4 BYU stretch, which ultimately got BYU rolling and sent LMU packing mentally.
We'll have to see what plays out going forward, but BYU showed tonight that it has what it takes, at least defensively, to compete with Saint Mary's in the battle for the #2 seed in the conference tourney. Though if the offense doesn't come around (i.e. if a few others guys don't start to show they can produce on at least a semi-regular basis), it may not matter how they perform defensively.
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