2012 was not a kind year to BYU.
Basketball:
They got the shaft by the NCAA Tourney Selection Committee (again). They completed the biggest comeback in NCAA Tourney history, but it was in the play-in game, and it took everything out of them and made the Marquette game non-competitive just two days later. Prior to that, the Cougars struggled more in the WCC than was to be expected. The Cougars went 12-4, which isn't half bad (though it's been 4 years since BYU last had that poor of a conference record). They lost two conference games at home, which hadn't happened previously in the Dave Rose era. They lost 5 games total against WCC teams (including in the WCC Tournament): all 5 were DOUBLE-DIGIT losses. To be fair, the first loss actually occurred in 2011...Dave Rose hasn't had a year like 2012 since the first year he took the reigns.
Football:
Well, I don't really need to say anything about this really. I, like many of you, have made my peace with it.
Looking Ahead to 2013: I am continually a pessimist for the short-term future of BYU sports, though much more optimistic going into 2014.
Basketball:
The 2013 basketball schedule includes all of WCC play, plus a home game against Utah State, and another year of tournament debacles. BYU's biggest problem with its basketball team right now is that it has to start 5 players. There are not 5 guys that should start on any team with designs on an at-large NCAA tournament bid. Davies. Haws. That's it. Carlino and Cusick seem to have forgotten how to play point guard. Zylstra is still Zylstra: hits everything against nobody and nothing against anybody worth talking about. Every time Josh Sharp gets the ball, he looks like he has never dribbled a basketball before or made an offensive move in his life. Yes, he has a couple of nice dunks, but those were all created by passes leaving him open and under the basket. Nate Austin can't avoid fouls. Anson Winder has been hurt. Raul Delgado is maybe, potentially, possibly starting to get it. But conference play is a different animal and he'll have a baptism by fire this week against Loyola Marymount.
It's just tough. There aren't 5 guys that can play on both sides of the court. It's difficult to find 5 guys in that scenario. I can't blame BYU/Coach Rose for struggling to find the right mix of players. This is a much different team with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers. It just diminished the talent level of those expected to play and contribute. It will be even tougher on the road in an improved WCC. Another 12-4 season, which may be optimistic, will not be good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid, particularly if BYU bows out early in the conference tournament. Perhaps this young team would benefit from an NIT home game or two???
The good news is that in the back half of 2013 (the first half of next season), anything could happen. Guys can get better, Kyle Collinsworth gets home from a mission, and the schedule isn't out yet...
Football:
The schedule gets very challenging in 2013, as has been documented. BYU plays road games at Virginia, Utah State, Houston, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Hawaii. None of those games should be too daunting individually. Virginia is beatable after a 4-8 campaign and coaching staff changes. Utah State, with a first-time head coach, is beatable. Houston went 5-7 this year and will be in the middle of a transition to the Big East next season, ergo, quite beatable. Wisconsin was going to be a tough one anyway, but add Gary Andersen as head coach and that's going to be nearly impossible for BYU's front 7. Notre Dame loses 9 offensive starters and a heck of a lot of defensive starters too, including future NC game MVP Manti Te'o. But they'll have talent. Hawaii stinks. Like really badly...
The home games aren't exactly "gimme" games either. Texas seems to be headed in a better direction (if they can solve their QB controversy in the off-season). Utah has a massive psychological edge that stretches a decade now. Georgia Tech's option attack, sandwiched between road games, might be difficult. Boise State is tough anywhere, anytime. Middle Tennessee should be a win, but they aren't as awful as BYU fans would think. Then that 6th opponent to be named later (I'd put my money on an FCS team unless ESPN decides to make something happen).
Cody Hoffman announced he is coming back, which is great news b/c the rest of the receivers are awful (TEs excluded b/c I think they will be money in 2013). Kyle Van Noy will announce in the next two weeks what his plans are. And NO, I put zero stock in the internet rumors that he has decided that he is returning. He put into the NFL draft advisory board and won't make a decision either way until he hears back, so anyone claiming to know anything is full of crap. Inside sources are bunk. He'll hear from the board, talk with his family, and announce a decision after that, my guess is around January 15th or so, maybe a few days earlier, but that is the typical timeframe for the board (within the first two weeks of January).
As it currently stands, I don't like BYU's chances of great things next year. However, Notre Dame entered 2012 with some of the same types of questions that BYU will enter 2013 and it turned out alright. They had uncertainty with a young, but talented and mobile QB (Everett Golson vs. Taysom Hill), but talented RBs (Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick vs. Jamaal Williams-and hopefully someone else) and an All-American receiving target (Tyler Eifert vs. Cody Hoffman). The main difference is the experienced and talented OL...
Defensively, ND had a LB playmaker that returned for his senior year instead of heading to the NFL that straight up changed the culture of the program. Could KVN do for BYU what Manti did for ND? The ND secondary was rebuilt during fall camp with WRs and walk-ons and it worked out alright. BYU's secondary actually has more returning experience, barring several significant injuries or off-campus fights. The DL, much like the OL, could be the difference. BYU loses a lot of guys that saw time in 2012, though, due to injuries, a lot of younger guy saw time later in the season. BYU also has no one with the size and speed of ND's 2012 DL...
ND had a challenging schedule, one that looked too daunting at the start of the season. But several of the bigger-name opponents fizzled (although Oklahoma and Stanford would be top 5 teams if they hadn't lost to ND...the others, however, failed)
I realize it's a stretch. BYU will probably show in the first four weeks why that comparison I just attempted to make was awful. However, it was merely to show that you never know. Things could come together in an unlikely manner. But I've been clear that I just wouldn't hold out hope that 2013 will bring better things for BYU than 2012 did. Ask me about 2014 and I'll be much more optimistic! Taysom Hill would be a Junior with a really good group of Juniors and Seniors. The schedule is much more friendly as well. In 2013, BYU fans can temper expectations to a bowl game and hope for 8 wins (including the bowl game).
Monday, December 31, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Pre-Poinsettia Bowl Thoughts
After spending a few days back in Utah, with Utah newspapers, I am becoming more and more skeptical about BYU tonight. BYU has a tendency, in the off-season and pre-season to let a little pie-in-the-sky attitude out. They talk of BCS games or national championships. Clearly that is out of the question. But the quotes I'm reading from San Diego this week have that same arrogant stench. That isn't to say that BYU isn't the better team and should be able to win. However, as we often see in bowl games, the better team doesn't always win. The more focused and motivated team usually does. When both teams are focused and motivated, then the better team wins.
But I don't see the same levels of focus and motivation. SDSU is prepared to play BYU. BYU is prepared to play a bowl game. Ultimately, with a season like this, one could expect BYU players, though fans usually hold them in the utmost regard, to fend for themselves. James Lark, Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman (with KVN and Hoffman looking forward at potential NFL careers and wanting to make big plays), and a lot of seniors could play selfish. Arrogance, lack of proper preparation, and selfishness could lead to a lot of big plays for SDSU. Or...BYU could be prepared, come together as a unit, and what looks like arrogance could be confidence in that preparation and unity.
I suspect the defense will be unified. They seem to understand that sticking together gives them their best chance. Ogletree or KVN or Sorensen flying out of position trying to make a big play is going to result in a big play, but probably not the one that the Cougar D wants. They may give up a big play or two. Maybe even three. But I don't see SDSU pouring on points entirely at the fault of the defense.
The offense, however, is a different story! If I played O for BYU this season, I'd be ticked. The Ultimate Competitor turned out to be the ultimate non-team player, costing BYU game after game by playing ineffectively through injury. That would make me question whether I should be a team-first player: the reward is clearly in working hard (or at least displaying it to Bronco's satisfaction), not in playing well or playing for the team. So I wouldn't blame James Lark trying to do too much. Or Cody Hoffman trying to prove he's NFL-ready. Even Jamaal Williams could try to put on a show and take the credit all to himself. Better still, coaches are probably trying to save jobs by putting on an exceptional performance. It may cause them to take risks or ask/expect too much. Or, who knows, maybe the unit will be hardened by their season and have taken this month to really gel behind James Lark. Maybe the OL was just not healthy and it is healed up now, at most positions.
Based on what I'm reading, I'm more pessimistic. I could see the game going one of two ways: BYU wins close, maybe even by as much as 10-13 points, but either way the game would be decided by two plays or drives, or SDSU wins by a landslide and it's never really close. I don't see BYU blowing SDSU out, nor do I see SDSU pulling out a squeaker. Being that this blog is about BYU, I'll go ahead and give BYU the 24-13 win. I'm not ruling out a 31-10 in-your-face-BYU performance by the Aztecs. We'll know awfully quick into the game which one it's going to be!
But I don't see the same levels of focus and motivation. SDSU is prepared to play BYU. BYU is prepared to play a bowl game. Ultimately, with a season like this, one could expect BYU players, though fans usually hold them in the utmost regard, to fend for themselves. James Lark, Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman (with KVN and Hoffman looking forward at potential NFL careers and wanting to make big plays), and a lot of seniors could play selfish. Arrogance, lack of proper preparation, and selfishness could lead to a lot of big plays for SDSU. Or...BYU could be prepared, come together as a unit, and what looks like arrogance could be confidence in that preparation and unity.
I suspect the defense will be unified. They seem to understand that sticking together gives them their best chance. Ogletree or KVN or Sorensen flying out of position trying to make a big play is going to result in a big play, but probably not the one that the Cougar D wants. They may give up a big play or two. Maybe even three. But I don't see SDSU pouring on points entirely at the fault of the defense.
The offense, however, is a different story! If I played O for BYU this season, I'd be ticked. The Ultimate Competitor turned out to be the ultimate non-team player, costing BYU game after game by playing ineffectively through injury. That would make me question whether I should be a team-first player: the reward is clearly in working hard (or at least displaying it to Bronco's satisfaction), not in playing well or playing for the team. So I wouldn't blame James Lark trying to do too much. Or Cody Hoffman trying to prove he's NFL-ready. Even Jamaal Williams could try to put on a show and take the credit all to himself. Better still, coaches are probably trying to save jobs by putting on an exceptional performance. It may cause them to take risks or ask/expect too much. Or, who knows, maybe the unit will be hardened by their season and have taken this month to really gel behind James Lark. Maybe the OL was just not healthy and it is healed up now, at most positions.
Based on what I'm reading, I'm more pessimistic. I could see the game going one of two ways: BYU wins close, maybe even by as much as 10-13 points, but either way the game would be decided by two plays or drives, or SDSU wins by a landslide and it's never really close. I don't see BYU blowing SDSU out, nor do I see SDSU pulling out a squeaker. Being that this blog is about BYU, I'll go ahead and give BYU the 24-13 win. I'm not ruling out a 31-10 in-your-face-BYU performance by the Aztecs. We'll know awfully quick into the game which one it's going to be!
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Semester Over, More Time for Fandom!
It's been far too long. But I'll admit: I've been a little upset at BYU as I look back on the football season that could have been...
Perhaps Bronco and Doman didn't know that Riley was hurt against Utah, though I find that hard to believe. They pulled him against Weber, sat him out of practice part of the week. Then, they played him anyway, in spite of him being noticeably ineffective. Perhaps they thought to themselves that it was just Riley, as he has never played well against good competition. However, after the game, they had to know for sure that he was hurt. They played him anyway against Boise State until his gagillionth INT was finally too much. If they don't play an injured Riley against San Jose State, I'm convinced they win that one too. Notre Dame and Oregon State, BYU could have lost regardless of who played. Of course, they also could have won either too...
Riley was hurt. He played. Badly. Bronco and Doman could see the poor play. They probably knew about the injury. I don't put any blame on Riley for wanting to play, even if injured. I think for college athletes playing hurt comes naturally. It's on the coaches to sit the hurt players. I know there are stories of miraculous comebacks led by injured QBs. But BYU showed plenty of examples of an injured QB preventing a team from winning...that's on the coaches. 7-5 is on the coaches. The talent was there. The defense was there. The special teams were there (minus the place-kicking).
So, there it is. Bronco flubbed the QB situation. He's trying to flub it for the bowl game. In addition, the O-Line wasn't as good as the coaches said it was. The running game was about the same as it usually is: great against garbage teams, garbage against average or better teams. The D was great. It played poorly for about three halves all season. I do believe that BYU fans expectations are too high. However, Bronco spurs it on by talking BCS games and National Championships in the offseason and pre-season.
With that said, BYU should beat SDSU in its bowl game, in spite of SDSU's motivation. They have a better team. They should control the line of scrimmage and prevent SDSU from getting anything going. If they can stop SDSU's rushing attack, they should be good to win. But that requires SOME offense, and Riley Nelson is NOT the guy to give them that. Especially if he is still hurt! Turnovers are the only thing that I believe prevent BYU from finishing 8-5.
Perhaps Bronco and Doman didn't know that Riley was hurt against Utah, though I find that hard to believe. They pulled him against Weber, sat him out of practice part of the week. Then, they played him anyway, in spite of him being noticeably ineffective. Perhaps they thought to themselves that it was just Riley, as he has never played well against good competition. However, after the game, they had to know for sure that he was hurt. They played him anyway against Boise State until his gagillionth INT was finally too much. If they don't play an injured Riley against San Jose State, I'm convinced they win that one too. Notre Dame and Oregon State, BYU could have lost regardless of who played. Of course, they also could have won either too...
Riley was hurt. He played. Badly. Bronco and Doman could see the poor play. They probably knew about the injury. I don't put any blame on Riley for wanting to play, even if injured. I think for college athletes playing hurt comes naturally. It's on the coaches to sit the hurt players. I know there are stories of miraculous comebacks led by injured QBs. But BYU showed plenty of examples of an injured QB preventing a team from winning...that's on the coaches. 7-5 is on the coaches. The talent was there. The defense was there. The special teams were there (minus the place-kicking).
So, there it is. Bronco flubbed the QB situation. He's trying to flub it for the bowl game. In addition, the O-Line wasn't as good as the coaches said it was. The running game was about the same as it usually is: great against garbage teams, garbage against average or better teams. The D was great. It played poorly for about three halves all season. I do believe that BYU fans expectations are too high. However, Bronco spurs it on by talking BCS games and National Championships in the offseason and pre-season.
With that said, BYU should beat SDSU in its bowl game, in spite of SDSU's motivation. They have a better team. They should control the line of scrimmage and prevent SDSU from getting anything going. If they can stop SDSU's rushing attack, they should be good to win. But that requires SOME offense, and Riley Nelson is NOT the guy to give them that. Especially if he is still hurt! Turnovers are the only thing that I believe prevent BYU from finishing 8-5.
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