Prediction
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game. Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again). The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.). There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together. This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.
If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again. With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons. With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play. Perhaps Nelson changes that. But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.
I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU. I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back. He has got to be very good. He needs to be precise. He can't turn the ball over. But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game. He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game. But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet. He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...
I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history). BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge. They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge. I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with. TCU 34, BYU 24.
What do you all predict for this game? And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy. Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see. I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!
Thursday, October 27, 2011
BYU-TCU Preview, Part II, 10/28/2011
BYU's D vs. TCU's O
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.
TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.
With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.
The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.
TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.
With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.
The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.
BYU-TCU Preview, Part I, 10/28/2011
BYU's O vs. TCU's D
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.
TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.
In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.
It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).
BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.
Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.
Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.
TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.
In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.
It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).
BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.
Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.
Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Thusday Thoughts, 10/27/2011
The 2011 Difference
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games. There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010. First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons. Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game. Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did). Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end. Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.
Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations. BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling. Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D). TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure. TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet. Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past. No BYU tackling dummies. No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title. This is just another non-conference game for them. Now, it's the big game for BYU.
That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor. However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.
Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense. In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons. This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one. Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense. The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State. So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.
BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's). Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.
Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense. Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout. They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's. Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium. Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off? Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...
Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season. I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th. I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well. I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play). So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much). Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.
TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate). TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would. BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined. BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be. Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning. Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much. Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games. There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010. First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons. Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game. Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did). Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end. Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.
Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations. BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling. Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D). TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure. TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet. Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past. No BYU tackling dummies. No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title. This is just another non-conference game for them. Now, it's the big game for BYU.
That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor. However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.
Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense. In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons. This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one. Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense. The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State. So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.
BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's). Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.
Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense. Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout. They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's. Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium. Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off? Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...
Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season. I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th. I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well. I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play). So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much). Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.
TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate). TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would. BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined. BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be. Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning. Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much. Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!
Friday, October 21, 2011
Idaho State vs. BYU Preview, 10/22/2011
BYU's O vs. Idaho State's D
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.
BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.
The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.
BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.
BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.
That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.
Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.
Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.
BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.
The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.
BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.
BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.
That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.
Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.
Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Thursday Thoughts, 10/20/2011
Secondary
Some writers in Utah attack BYU's secondary (the Salt Lake Tribune). Some writers thing the criticism is too harsh (KSL). I have often wondered myself how BYU would do against a team that wants to sling the ball 50 times a game, mostly in hurry-up O-mode with three-step passes (i.e. most of the Big 12!). Enter Idaho State. Granted, they don't have the talent level of just about any FBS teams, but they are going to hurry up to the line and throw the ball all over the field, mostly in the short passing game. I have said repeatedly if I was playing BYU, I would throw about 10 hitches, slants, or outs in a row to start the game. This will be an interesting test to see how that strategy would work, albeit against an inferior opponent. If FCS Idaho State can still complete 65% of its passes, then just imagine how devastated the secondary would be against a team with better QB, RB, and WRs (i.e. every Big 12 team).
The problem with BYU's D is that there is no scheme to take away those passes. The DBs never move up. The blitz doesn't have time to get to the QB. When BYU drops 8 into coverage, they still don't blanket guys. BYU relies on someone making a mistake. [Most of the teams on BYU's schedule will make a mistake eventually on a 10-14 play drive. Idaho State is certainly no exception.] I am curious to see how this "experiment" goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho State move the ball up and down the field against BYU, though, I don't anticipate a lot of TDs in the red zone.
Alisa vs. Unga
Michael Alisa's TD last week looked almost exactly the same as one Harvey Unga had in a game against Colorado State a few years back, including the way he cradled the ball in his left hand (maybe it's a Timpview thing?). Apparently, everyone else agreed as that has become a big topic of conversation this week in Provo. Whether the rest of his runs look like Unga or not, I don't know, but I do know that his mentality is a lot like Unga's. He seems to understand when to get outside, when to run over people, and when to just take the 3 yards and get back to the huddle. And he rarely ever fumbles (once in 39 carries). The rest of the RBs have tried to do too much so far this season. Quezada has run outside when he should run inside and inside when he should run outside. Kariya seemed to go down too easily early in the year. DiLuigi hasn't been as effective in the passing game as I thought, and, until Oregon State, he hadn't had a "home run" type of run yet this season.
Alisa is running like I expected Quezada to this year: hard and tough. He is breaking tackles with his speed, power, and moves. I think with that deadly combination he, just like Nelson, has provided a spark to the offense (as with Nelson, it helps that opposing defenses have gotten progressively easier). All of the backs have picked up their game. All are running with a much greater intensity. Prior to Alisa's surge, Quezada had 33 carries for 95 yards (2.9 yards/carry), with one run over 10 yards. Since then: 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3) and two runs over 10 yards. DiLuigi had 51 carries for 214 yards (4.2), the last two games he has 13 for 90 (6.9). Alisa's carries are up. Quezada's carries are up. The seniors carries are going down. Kariya is now playing a lot more like a FB in to block on QB draws and in passing situations. The future seems to be now in the running game.
Apo and Heaps
Heaps struggled. He was yanked. Apo has been struggling too. I think it's about time for him to get the yank too. He is young. This is his first season playing college football. But he looks every bit as "business-like" as Heaps did. There is no enthusiasm. In his case, unlike Heaps, there doesn't even appear to be any effort. Riley Nelson gave Apo three catchable balls last game, besides his 1 completion for 4 yards, and Apo didn't go get any of them. It doesn't even look like he's trying. While the pick six is entirely on Nelson for holding on to the ball too long (and not on Doman for calling the play, it's a "three step then throw" not "three step, pat the ball, stare down the receiver, and throw"), Apo didn't make any effort to go get the ball, and he made even less to go tackle the guy. Apo is one of the fastest guys on the team. He's supposedly a 4.3-40 guy. But Poyer pulled away from him easily. That either makes Poyer a 4.1 guy, or Apo wasn't putting in the effort. I don't think he was going to catch him anyway, but you have to try.
I think he needs a good benching to get his head on straight. He is not playing BYU football right now. I really hate to call for benchings, or anyone's head, but I see a lack of effort out there, and that is inexcusable. Everyone else seems to be playing better/harder with Nelson out there. Apo is the exception. BYU, as we all know, is about rules, not exceptions. If it weren't, BYU might very well have won the NCAA Tournament last season...
Some writers in Utah attack BYU's secondary (the Salt Lake Tribune). Some writers thing the criticism is too harsh (KSL). I have often wondered myself how BYU would do against a team that wants to sling the ball 50 times a game, mostly in hurry-up O-mode with three-step passes (i.e. most of the Big 12!). Enter Idaho State. Granted, they don't have the talent level of just about any FBS teams, but they are going to hurry up to the line and throw the ball all over the field, mostly in the short passing game. I have said repeatedly if I was playing BYU, I would throw about 10 hitches, slants, or outs in a row to start the game. This will be an interesting test to see how that strategy would work, albeit against an inferior opponent. If FCS Idaho State can still complete 65% of its passes, then just imagine how devastated the secondary would be against a team with better QB, RB, and WRs (i.e. every Big 12 team).
The problem with BYU's D is that there is no scheme to take away those passes. The DBs never move up. The blitz doesn't have time to get to the QB. When BYU drops 8 into coverage, they still don't blanket guys. BYU relies on someone making a mistake. [Most of the teams on BYU's schedule will make a mistake eventually on a 10-14 play drive. Idaho State is certainly no exception.] I am curious to see how this "experiment" goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho State move the ball up and down the field against BYU, though, I don't anticipate a lot of TDs in the red zone.
Alisa vs. Unga
Michael Alisa's TD last week looked almost exactly the same as one Harvey Unga had in a game against Colorado State a few years back, including the way he cradled the ball in his left hand (maybe it's a Timpview thing?). Apparently, everyone else agreed as that has become a big topic of conversation this week in Provo. Whether the rest of his runs look like Unga or not, I don't know, but I do know that his mentality is a lot like Unga's. He seems to understand when to get outside, when to run over people, and when to just take the 3 yards and get back to the huddle. And he rarely ever fumbles (once in 39 carries). The rest of the RBs have tried to do too much so far this season. Quezada has run outside when he should run inside and inside when he should run outside. Kariya seemed to go down too easily early in the year. DiLuigi hasn't been as effective in the passing game as I thought, and, until Oregon State, he hadn't had a "home run" type of run yet this season.
Alisa is running like I expected Quezada to this year: hard and tough. He is breaking tackles with his speed, power, and moves. I think with that deadly combination he, just like Nelson, has provided a spark to the offense (as with Nelson, it helps that opposing defenses have gotten progressively easier). All of the backs have picked up their game. All are running with a much greater intensity. Prior to Alisa's surge, Quezada had 33 carries for 95 yards (2.9 yards/carry), with one run over 10 yards. Since then: 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3) and two runs over 10 yards. DiLuigi had 51 carries for 214 yards (4.2), the last two games he has 13 for 90 (6.9). Alisa's carries are up. Quezada's carries are up. The seniors carries are going down. Kariya is now playing a lot more like a FB in to block on QB draws and in passing situations. The future seems to be now in the running game.
Apo and Heaps
Heaps struggled. He was yanked. Apo has been struggling too. I think it's about time for him to get the yank too. He is young. This is his first season playing college football. But he looks every bit as "business-like" as Heaps did. There is no enthusiasm. In his case, unlike Heaps, there doesn't even appear to be any effort. Riley Nelson gave Apo three catchable balls last game, besides his 1 completion for 4 yards, and Apo didn't go get any of them. It doesn't even look like he's trying. While the pick six is entirely on Nelson for holding on to the ball too long (and not on Doman for calling the play, it's a "three step then throw" not "three step, pat the ball, stare down the receiver, and throw"), Apo didn't make any effort to go get the ball, and he made even less to go tackle the guy. Apo is one of the fastest guys on the team. He's supposedly a 4.3-40 guy. But Poyer pulled away from him easily. That either makes Poyer a 4.1 guy, or Apo wasn't putting in the effort. I don't think he was going to catch him anyway, but you have to try.
I think he needs a good benching to get his head on straight. He is not playing BYU football right now. I really hate to call for benchings, or anyone's head, but I see a lack of effort out there, and that is inexcusable. Everyone else seems to be playing better/harder with Nelson out there. Apo is the exception. BYU, as we all know, is about rules, not exceptions. If it weren't, BYU might very well have won the NCAA Tournament last season...
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Tuesday Tidbits, 10/18/2011
Crossing the 50
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.
BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.
Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.
By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.
Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?
As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.
Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.
The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.
BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.
Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.
By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.
Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?
As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.
Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.
The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!
Thursday, October 13, 2011
BYU-Oregon State Preview, 10/15/2011
BYU's O vs. Oregon State's D
As I highlighted earlier this season, BYU has struggled in the running game in recent seasons against BCS conference defenses. Oregon State's defense has been pretty stout in run D so far this season, giving up just 3.68 yards/carry for the season. [It held Wisconsin to a season low in rushing yards. UCLA and Wisconsin are the only two teams to have consistent success in the running game against Oregon State.] These two items together may not be a great combination. However, with the energy of the offense under Riley Nelson (and his mobility in general) and the emergence of Michael Alisa, it will be interesting to see if this trend can change, starting on Saturday.
As impressive as Oregon State's run D has been, their pass D has been equally unimpressive. Opposing teams are completing 67.1% of passes against them for 253.4 yards/game. Oregon State's passer rating D is 113th in the country. BYU should theoretically be able to take advantage of this, and historically speaking they would definitely exploit this. However, Riley Nelson came down to earth a bit last week in the passing game, completing just 58% of his passes for 219 yards at home against San Jose State. This is a more athletic, more physical defense on the road.
The Beaver defense isn't good, by any means, but the BYU offense, other than a half dozen drives this season, hasn't been very good either. Even then, it's hard to imagine BYU not being to move the ball for at least 360 yards and 5 scores against this defense. It's not a good defense. Statistically speaking, this is one of the bottom half of defenses BYU will face this season. It's a defense that gave up enough points to lose to FCS Sacramento State at home. If Riley gets in rhythm and the BYU run game overcomes their recent struggles, BYU will score 31 or more for over 400 yards. If they can't, it'll be much closer to that 24 and 360.
BYU's D vs. Oregon State's O
Oregon State would love to be a balanced offense, but the running game has not been very good, ranking 104th in yards/game at 110 and averaging just 3.09 yards/carry. In the passing game, they are starting a redshirt freshman at QB. But he is completing 66% of his passes for 256 yards/game. He has thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 TDs. BYU fans can relate to the progression of this young Oregon State QB: great and atrocious, all wrapped up in one.
With BYU's secondary, I think that 66% and 256 yards is about a minimum for the Oregon State offense. With BYU's front 7, I think Oregon State will be held to less than 3.09 yards/carry and 110 yards. BYU's best hope is that Oregon State doesn't completely abandon the running game, because BYU's pass D cannot make enough plays, particularly with some playmakers for the Beavers. Markus Wheaton has the longest reception of the season (69 yards). Jordan Bishop has the longest TD of the season (45 yards). James Rodgers' abilities have been nationally recognized over the past two seasons. TE Joe Halahuni is a touchdown maker in the red zone. If Oregon State becomes pass-oriented, BYU could be in trouble.
What BYU does have going for it is ability to bring pressure, particularly from the outside linebacker position. With a young, indecisive QB, if the D can get to him on 5-step drops and get hands up on 3-step drops, the Oregon State passing game might be minimized as well. If BYU can pressure Sean Mannion, then they can hold Oregon State to under 350 yards and 27 points. If not, then Mannion might have a career day. In the run game, BYU should be able to stifle Oregon State, regardless of what kind of game Mannion has. So there you have it: rattle the young man, win the game. Play pass D like they did against SJSU, and lose it.
Prediction
At this point, put no stock in what I say here, because, while I have tended to be on in how the teams matchup, I seem to stink in putting it all together for a decent prediction. However, this is a game that BYU should win. It's a 1-4 team that lost to an FCS school. It's a passing attack that has thrown twice as many INTs are TDs. Its passing defense is statistically worse than BYU's. Its rushing offense is statistically worse than BYU's. Where BYU has been bad this season, Oregon State has been even worse. Having to rely on a redshirt freshman to throw over 40 times for over 300 yards is not a good recipe for success, even against BYU.
A typical BYU team would win this game, even on the road, by 14 points fairly easily. However, nothing has been easy for this BYU team. If BYU takes care of the football, even if it means settling for field goals in the red zone, BYU wins this game. I think Riley will protect the ball better and BYU will score more frequently, albeit fewer points than last week. I think a young Oregon State QB can make enough bad throws for BYU's D to hold up. BYU 24, Oregon State 20.
What predictions are hanging out there in your minds?
As I highlighted earlier this season, BYU has struggled in the running game in recent seasons against BCS conference defenses. Oregon State's defense has been pretty stout in run D so far this season, giving up just 3.68 yards/carry for the season. [It held Wisconsin to a season low in rushing yards. UCLA and Wisconsin are the only two teams to have consistent success in the running game against Oregon State.] These two items together may not be a great combination. However, with the energy of the offense under Riley Nelson (and his mobility in general) and the emergence of Michael Alisa, it will be interesting to see if this trend can change, starting on Saturday.
As impressive as Oregon State's run D has been, their pass D has been equally unimpressive. Opposing teams are completing 67.1% of passes against them for 253.4 yards/game. Oregon State's passer rating D is 113th in the country. BYU should theoretically be able to take advantage of this, and historically speaking they would definitely exploit this. However, Riley Nelson came down to earth a bit last week in the passing game, completing just 58% of his passes for 219 yards at home against San Jose State. This is a more athletic, more physical defense on the road.
The Beaver defense isn't good, by any means, but the BYU offense, other than a half dozen drives this season, hasn't been very good either. Even then, it's hard to imagine BYU not being to move the ball for at least 360 yards and 5 scores against this defense. It's not a good defense. Statistically speaking, this is one of the bottom half of defenses BYU will face this season. It's a defense that gave up enough points to lose to FCS Sacramento State at home. If Riley gets in rhythm and the BYU run game overcomes their recent struggles, BYU will score 31 or more for over 400 yards. If they can't, it'll be much closer to that 24 and 360.
BYU's D vs. Oregon State's O
Oregon State would love to be a balanced offense, but the running game has not been very good, ranking 104th in yards/game at 110 and averaging just 3.09 yards/carry. In the passing game, they are starting a redshirt freshman at QB. But he is completing 66% of his passes for 256 yards/game. He has thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 TDs. BYU fans can relate to the progression of this young Oregon State QB: great and atrocious, all wrapped up in one.
With BYU's secondary, I think that 66% and 256 yards is about a minimum for the Oregon State offense. With BYU's front 7, I think Oregon State will be held to less than 3.09 yards/carry and 110 yards. BYU's best hope is that Oregon State doesn't completely abandon the running game, because BYU's pass D cannot make enough plays, particularly with some playmakers for the Beavers. Markus Wheaton has the longest reception of the season (69 yards). Jordan Bishop has the longest TD of the season (45 yards). James Rodgers' abilities have been nationally recognized over the past two seasons. TE Joe Halahuni is a touchdown maker in the red zone. If Oregon State becomes pass-oriented, BYU could be in trouble.
What BYU does have going for it is ability to bring pressure, particularly from the outside linebacker position. With a young, indecisive QB, if the D can get to him on 5-step drops and get hands up on 3-step drops, the Oregon State passing game might be minimized as well. If BYU can pressure Sean Mannion, then they can hold Oregon State to under 350 yards and 27 points. If not, then Mannion might have a career day. In the run game, BYU should be able to stifle Oregon State, regardless of what kind of game Mannion has. So there you have it: rattle the young man, win the game. Play pass D like they did against SJSU, and lose it.
Prediction
At this point, put no stock in what I say here, because, while I have tended to be on in how the teams matchup, I seem to stink in putting it all together for a decent prediction. However, this is a game that BYU should win. It's a 1-4 team that lost to an FCS school. It's a passing attack that has thrown twice as many INTs are TDs. Its passing defense is statistically worse than BYU's. Its rushing offense is statistically worse than BYU's. Where BYU has been bad this season, Oregon State has been even worse. Having to rely on a redshirt freshman to throw over 40 times for over 300 yards is not a good recipe for success, even against BYU.
A typical BYU team would win this game, even on the road, by 14 points fairly easily. However, nothing has been easy for this BYU team. If BYU takes care of the football, even if it means settling for field goals in the red zone, BYU wins this game. I think Riley will protect the ball better and BYU will score more frequently, albeit fewer points than last week. I think a young Oregon State QB can make enough bad throws for BYU's D to hold up. BYU 24, Oregon State 20.
What predictions are hanging out there in your minds?
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Tuesday Tidbits, 10/11/2011
More on Alisa
Michael Alisa had, as highlighted by just about everyone that cares about BYU football, one heck of a game on Saturday night in Provo. 16 carries, 91 yards. Incredible. First, the guy was a LB until very recently, converted to RB for this season. Nobody thought he'd see much time this season with the three-headed "monster" of DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada. Second, he's only a sophomore, recently returned from a mission. Third, the guy hadn't had more than 2 carries in a game since 2007, when he was in high school. Fourth, in 16 carries he was only tackled for loss 1 time, and it was only a 1-yard loss. His next shortest rush was 3 yards.
The most impressive part of all might be this: I can't remember the last time a BYU RB had 16 carries for 91 yards in a game, with only one TFL, and without a fumble. And that's regular, recruited to play running back RBs, not converted LBs, just home from a mission, who hadn't had more than 2 touches in a game in 4 years. He is doing what I thought Quezada would do for BYU this season: run like a LB!
Old Mainstays Back to Form
Jordan Pendleton and Matt Putnam took the field on Saturday night for the first time in quite some time. They made their presence felt early, and, in JP's case, often. Pendleton had two tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hurry (when he forced a bad throw that was intercepted by Kyle Van Noy), and 5 tackles total, all solo. Putnam's first snap of the season was a nice Tackle For Loss on a San Jose State running play. He finished with 2 tackles and helped provide depth to the defensive line that stymied the Spartan rushing attack most of the evening.
If these two can play at a high level the remainder of the season, there isn't a challenge that the BYU defense can't face up to and succeed against. Hopefully, this was just the beginning. With how much BYU's D has seen the field recently, adding two more able bodies will help keep guys fresh.
Tracking Seniors
BYU's Defense had 18 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 INT, and 2 pass break ups by seniors. 37 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 INT, and 1 pass break ups were by guys that should return to the team next season. Offensively, 145 yards and 2 TDs were accounted for by seniors (though junior Riley Nelson did throw the pass). 298 yards and 1 TD were by guys that should return next season. On special teams, the biggest contribution by a senior was from holder Matt Marshall: all the yards and points were by guys that should return next season. Seniors accounted for roughly 33% of the production, and 42% of the scoring, of the team against San Jose State.
We knew this was a young team, but it's probably been a long time since a BYU team with a win percentage of 67% saw such production totals from non-seniors. The future continues to look bright for the Cougars. And hey, let's be honest, with the rest of the schedule, BYU should probably go at least 4-2 the rest of the way. Next year, BYU should have its best chance for on-field success with the proper mix of experience and talent. They just have to survive a brutal road schedule with games at Georgia Tech, Utah, and Boise State. In September. They also travel to Notre Dame in October.
Crossing the 50
BYU had 8 "meaningful" drives on San Jose State's side of the 50. This is a slight improvement from the 7 they have been averaging. They turned it into 27 points. This is the first time this season, BYU has averaged more than 3 yards/possession across the 50. BYU also scored on 5 of the 8 drives. Both of these represent progress, which is all BYU fans have been wanting. Now, BYU just needs to stop turning it over when they have a chance to score: they had 3 turnovers within field goal/TD range. BYU fans never quit, do we?
Michael Alisa had, as highlighted by just about everyone that cares about BYU football, one heck of a game on Saturday night in Provo. 16 carries, 91 yards. Incredible. First, the guy was a LB until very recently, converted to RB for this season. Nobody thought he'd see much time this season with the three-headed "monster" of DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada. Second, he's only a sophomore, recently returned from a mission. Third, the guy hadn't had more than 2 carries in a game since 2007, when he was in high school. Fourth, in 16 carries he was only tackled for loss 1 time, and it was only a 1-yard loss. His next shortest rush was 3 yards.
The most impressive part of all might be this: I can't remember the last time a BYU RB had 16 carries for 91 yards in a game, with only one TFL, and without a fumble. And that's regular, recruited to play running back RBs, not converted LBs, just home from a mission, who hadn't had more than 2 touches in a game in 4 years. He is doing what I thought Quezada would do for BYU this season: run like a LB!
Old Mainstays Back to Form
Jordan Pendleton and Matt Putnam took the field on Saturday night for the first time in quite some time. They made their presence felt early, and, in JP's case, often. Pendleton had two tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hurry (when he forced a bad throw that was intercepted by Kyle Van Noy), and 5 tackles total, all solo. Putnam's first snap of the season was a nice Tackle For Loss on a San Jose State running play. He finished with 2 tackles and helped provide depth to the defensive line that stymied the Spartan rushing attack most of the evening.
If these two can play at a high level the remainder of the season, there isn't a challenge that the BYU defense can't face up to and succeed against. Hopefully, this was just the beginning. With how much BYU's D has seen the field recently, adding two more able bodies will help keep guys fresh.
Tracking Seniors
BYU's Defense had 18 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 INT, and 2 pass break ups by seniors. 37 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 INT, and 1 pass break ups were by guys that should return to the team next season. Offensively, 145 yards and 2 TDs were accounted for by seniors (though junior Riley Nelson did throw the pass). 298 yards and 1 TD were by guys that should return next season. On special teams, the biggest contribution by a senior was from holder Matt Marshall: all the yards and points were by guys that should return next season. Seniors accounted for roughly 33% of the production, and 42% of the scoring, of the team against San Jose State.
We knew this was a young team, but it's probably been a long time since a BYU team with a win percentage of 67% saw such production totals from non-seniors. The future continues to look bright for the Cougars. And hey, let's be honest, with the rest of the schedule, BYU should probably go at least 4-2 the rest of the way. Next year, BYU should have its best chance for on-field success with the proper mix of experience and talent. They just have to survive a brutal road schedule with games at Georgia Tech, Utah, and Boise State. In September. They also travel to Notre Dame in October.
Crossing the 50
BYU had 8 "meaningful" drives on San Jose State's side of the 50. This is a slight improvement from the 7 they have been averaging. They turned it into 27 points. This is the first time this season, BYU has averaged more than 3 yards/possession across the 50. BYU also scored on 5 of the 8 drives. Both of these represent progress, which is all BYU fans have been wanting. Now, BYU just needs to stop turning it over when they have a chance to score: they had 3 turnovers within field goal/TD range. BYU fans never quit, do we?
Sunday, October 9, 2011
SJSU-BYU Recap, 10/8/2011
Big Story #1: Michael AlisaA lot was made about Riley Nelson taking over the reigns of the BYU Offense this week, and rightfully so. But I think another of the big offensive changes was the featuring of Michael Alisa at RB. The running backs have struggled to get much going on the ground between the tackles. Enter Michael Alisa, former fourth string tailback. He wasn't flashy. He was just a blue collar, tough, hard-nosed, fight for extra yards kind of back. He is the RB version of Riley Nelson. His 91 yards and 6.1 yards per carry made a huge difference tonight.
Big Story #2: Riley's Contributions
Now with Riley Nelson at QB, the playbook opened up a lot more in the first half. At least two of his three TDs came off of plays that could not have worked with Jake Heaps running the offense. The screen pass to Richard Wilson was set up because of the respect the D had for Nelson's running ability. He rolled left and 10 of the 11 guys went with him. Wilson had 2 linemen leading the way, with only 1 guy to block. The double-move deep pass to Jacobson was set up by Riley's mobility in the pocket and then the perfect amount of touch on the pass. Jacobson has run free like that before for Heaps, Jake just never gave McKay a chance for the TD reception.
In the second half, with the exception of one or two rushes by Nelson, Riley didn't really do anything. It was a very Jake Heaps-like offense in the second half. That was one thing I was looking for: could Riley sustain it for four quarters? He started 5-6 in the first quarter, with 69 yards and a TD. His second quarter passing was great (minus a red zone INT in which he got ZERO help from senior WR McKay Jacobson) as he was 5-8 with 2 TDs and 101 yards. He went 0-4, with an INT in the third quarter before reviving himself in the fourth quarter, going 4-6, 49 yards. He was efficient in quarter one, made big plays in quarter two, was completely absent in quarter three, and played well enough to preserve a win in quarter four. It wasn't an amazing passing performance, but it was better than any game Heaps has had in that regard, and his 65 rushing yards were a huge difference in the game that just cannot happen with Heaps at QB.
Big Story #3: Typical BYU Secondary
The defensive performance tonight highlighted perfectly the BYU defense's abilities. They were stout against the run, minus two SJSU rushes that went for 15+ yards (but both less than 20). The front 7 controlled the line of scrimmage and forced a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs. However, the back 8 was atrocious in coverage. Yes, they had two INTs. But the coverage didn't force the picks, it was poor throws right into their waiting arms. WRs were getting behind them. SJSU was completing passes in front of them. And occasionally, just for good measure, they threw in between BYU defenders too. By my count, there were 4 pass plays that went for 20 yards or more, plus two pass interference penalties. The pass coverage didn't make any plays. They didn't cover anyone, short, medium, or deep. Next up, they have to go on the road against a more experienced QB, more talented WRs/TEs, and a better offensive coordinator. Oregon State is just a 1-4 team right now, but they are coming off their first win of the season, in which they completed 77% of their passes for 280 yards against a secondary no worse than BYU's. The safeties have always been poor and the corners have always played soft coverage, but now they are all getting beat deep. If BYU is giving 10-yard cushions, they cannot get beat deep too. It could be a long day next Saturday.
Big Story #4: BYU in Critical Situations
BYU's O turned it over in the red zone twice, but they also scored two TDs. The turnovers are nothing new and don't represent a regression, but the TDs were a very welcome sight. BYU also converted 8 of 11 third down opportunities. BYU was so effective on third down that they did not have to punt the entire game. That is tough to do. It's even tougher to imagine doing it in a game in which BYU only scored 29 points. On the other side of the ball, SJSU was 5-10 on third down. 50% is right about where BYU's defense has been the past three games after holding their first three opponents to just 10-37 overall, with 33% being the highest single game conversion percentage. Go figure: BYU is 3-0 in games where the opposing team is 50% or better on third down but 1-2 when opponents convert 33% or less. Maybe the offense needs time to make adjustments and 3 and outs don't allow for that?
Regardless, who knew that 29 points against SJSU would feel so good. The more impressive part is the 443 yards, with over half coming on the ground. 3 passing TDs for Riley Nelson is also a good sign. BYU must clean up the turnovers if it hopes to beat anyone of consequence, or do anything away from home. A 13-point win over SJSU at home is just not very impressive. The rushing O and D have stepped up, time for the passing games to pick up on both sides of the ball...
Big Story #2: Riley's Contributions
Now with Riley Nelson at QB, the playbook opened up a lot more in the first half. At least two of his three TDs came off of plays that could not have worked with Jake Heaps running the offense. The screen pass to Richard Wilson was set up because of the respect the D had for Nelson's running ability. He rolled left and 10 of the 11 guys went with him. Wilson had 2 linemen leading the way, with only 1 guy to block. The double-move deep pass to Jacobson was set up by Riley's mobility in the pocket and then the perfect amount of touch on the pass. Jacobson has run free like that before for Heaps, Jake just never gave McKay a chance for the TD reception.
In the second half, with the exception of one or two rushes by Nelson, Riley didn't really do anything. It was a very Jake Heaps-like offense in the second half. That was one thing I was looking for: could Riley sustain it for four quarters? He started 5-6 in the first quarter, with 69 yards and a TD. His second quarter passing was great (minus a red zone INT in which he got ZERO help from senior WR McKay Jacobson) as he was 5-8 with 2 TDs and 101 yards. He went 0-4, with an INT in the third quarter before reviving himself in the fourth quarter, going 4-6, 49 yards. He was efficient in quarter one, made big plays in quarter two, was completely absent in quarter three, and played well enough to preserve a win in quarter four. It wasn't an amazing passing performance, but it was better than any game Heaps has had in that regard, and his 65 rushing yards were a huge difference in the game that just cannot happen with Heaps at QB.
Big Story #3: Typical BYU Secondary
The defensive performance tonight highlighted perfectly the BYU defense's abilities. They were stout against the run, minus two SJSU rushes that went for 15+ yards (but both less than 20). The front 7 controlled the line of scrimmage and forced a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs. However, the back 8 was atrocious in coverage. Yes, they had two INTs. But the coverage didn't force the picks, it was poor throws right into their waiting arms. WRs were getting behind them. SJSU was completing passes in front of them. And occasionally, just for good measure, they threw in between BYU defenders too. By my count, there were 4 pass plays that went for 20 yards or more, plus two pass interference penalties. The pass coverage didn't make any plays. They didn't cover anyone, short, medium, or deep. Next up, they have to go on the road against a more experienced QB, more talented WRs/TEs, and a better offensive coordinator. Oregon State is just a 1-4 team right now, but they are coming off their first win of the season, in which they completed 77% of their passes for 280 yards against a secondary no worse than BYU's. The safeties have always been poor and the corners have always played soft coverage, but now they are all getting beat deep. If BYU is giving 10-yard cushions, they cannot get beat deep too. It could be a long day next Saturday.
Big Story #4: BYU in Critical Situations
BYU's O turned it over in the red zone twice, but they also scored two TDs. The turnovers are nothing new and don't represent a regression, but the TDs were a very welcome sight. BYU also converted 8 of 11 third down opportunities. BYU was so effective on third down that they did not have to punt the entire game. That is tough to do. It's even tougher to imagine doing it in a game in which BYU only scored 29 points. On the other side of the ball, SJSU was 5-10 on third down. 50% is right about where BYU's defense has been the past three games after holding their first three opponents to just 10-37 overall, with 33% being the highest single game conversion percentage. Go figure: BYU is 3-0 in games where the opposing team is 50% or better on third down but 1-2 when opponents convert 33% or less. Maybe the offense needs time to make adjustments and 3 and outs don't allow for that?
Regardless, who knew that 29 points against SJSU would feel so good. The more impressive part is the 443 yards, with over half coming on the ground. 3 passing TDs for Riley Nelson is also a good sign. BYU must clean up the turnovers if it hopes to beat anyone of consequence, or do anything away from home. A 13-point win over SJSU at home is just not very impressive. The rushing O and D have stepped up, time for the passing games to pick up on both sides of the ball...
Saturday, October 8, 2011
San Jose State at BYU Prediction, 10/8/2011
Riley and BYU's O vs. SJSU's D
Well, Riley Nelson has officially been named the starting QB for BYU. I think it's a bit of a shame, as Jake Heaps handled the difficult defenses (albeit very poorly in most cases) of the early season. Now Riley gets to come in against one of the worst defenses BYU will see all season.
San Jose State is giving up 186 yards rushing per game, which is a welcome sight for a BYU team coming off its first 200-yard rushing game of the season. Their pass defense is marginally better, giving up 223 yards/game, but it shouldn't put much fear into Nelson and his C-grade arm, especially with the emergence of Cody Hoffman as a big-time catch-making receiver, Marcus Mathews as a legitimate threat at TE, and both RBs (not counting Juice yet) doing a better job running after the catch. Riley should have some success in the pass game, and he'll need to complete a high percentage of passes to open things up for himself and the rest of the rushing attack.
I believe Nelson should be OK, but I think BYU fans expecting the same kind of high-octane offense he led last game will be disappointed. What made Riley so effective last week was his high energy, and that's tough to maintain for four quarters, especially in that second quarter. Riley needs to complete over 65% of his passes in order to keep the ball moving. He could throw for 200 if he does that. The rushing attack should be able to amass another 200-yard game, particularly with Riley Nelson in the game, capable of adding another 50-75 yards of his own on called pass plays.
In short, the offense SHOULD roll, regardless of who is at the QB position. The nice part for BYU fans, if Riley struggles, Heaps will get his chance, and what are the odds, against this defense, that both QBs struggle? As I said earlier in the week, this defense is experienced, so BYU has to execute. I think the WRs get open a little easier, the RBs have a little more rushing room, the OL gets a little more push upfront. We're going to see the BYU offense we've expected all season because this team is just a little bit worse across the board than the previous 5 defenses they have played. I expect at least 6 scoring drives. It's all about how many of those are TDs.
BYU's D vs. SJSU's O
SJSU's offense hasn't struggled quite as much as their defense, but they still don't rank in the top half of FBS in any significant category. They have capable players at the skill positions that can bust a big play at any time. They have an experienced OL, but the problem is, it's the same guys they had last season when they only had 4 100-yard rushing games in 13 games, against a WAC schedule. How they plan on consistently running against BYU's front 7 has to be their biggest concern.
If they can't run, they will have to turn to the passing game. They are experienced, but small. Their WRs are all smaller than FS Travis Uale, their TE is just 10 pounds bigger than SS Daniel Sorensen. Their best chance is to get their slot receivers the ball matched up against LBs, if they can. The biggest weakness for BYU's D is pass coverage. The corners are pretty good to this point, but the safeties and LBs have proven to be fairly poor in the passing game. SJSU must test the middle of the field in the passing game. That is where their big plays are to be found.
I don't think SJSU can get enough of those big plays to keep their team in the game. They should score once or twice, set up by big plays, but I don't them being able to consistently move the ball down the field on BYU's D. A conservative, bend-but-don't-break defensive plan, may prevent SJSU from scoring much at all: if BYU doesn't give up big plays, SJSU won't be able to score.
Prediction
This is just the kind of opponent BYU needs right now, coming off an emotional win where the offense finally moved the ball. BYU should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Riley should able up the big play potential a bit more on offense. And, if they can control the middle of the field in the passing game, the defense should be able to dominate this game from start to finish. BYU 41, San Jose State 10.
Well, Riley Nelson has officially been named the starting QB for BYU. I think it's a bit of a shame, as Jake Heaps handled the difficult defenses (albeit very poorly in most cases) of the early season. Now Riley gets to come in against one of the worst defenses BYU will see all season.
San Jose State is giving up 186 yards rushing per game, which is a welcome sight for a BYU team coming off its first 200-yard rushing game of the season. Their pass defense is marginally better, giving up 223 yards/game, but it shouldn't put much fear into Nelson and his C-grade arm, especially with the emergence of Cody Hoffman as a big-time catch-making receiver, Marcus Mathews as a legitimate threat at TE, and both RBs (not counting Juice yet) doing a better job running after the catch. Riley should have some success in the pass game, and he'll need to complete a high percentage of passes to open things up for himself and the rest of the rushing attack.
I believe Nelson should be OK, but I think BYU fans expecting the same kind of high-octane offense he led last game will be disappointed. What made Riley so effective last week was his high energy, and that's tough to maintain for four quarters, especially in that second quarter. Riley needs to complete over 65% of his passes in order to keep the ball moving. He could throw for 200 if he does that. The rushing attack should be able to amass another 200-yard game, particularly with Riley Nelson in the game, capable of adding another 50-75 yards of his own on called pass plays.
In short, the offense SHOULD roll, regardless of who is at the QB position. The nice part for BYU fans, if Riley struggles, Heaps will get his chance, and what are the odds, against this defense, that both QBs struggle? As I said earlier in the week, this defense is experienced, so BYU has to execute. I think the WRs get open a little easier, the RBs have a little more rushing room, the OL gets a little more push upfront. We're going to see the BYU offense we've expected all season because this team is just a little bit worse across the board than the previous 5 defenses they have played. I expect at least 6 scoring drives. It's all about how many of those are TDs.
BYU's D vs. SJSU's O
SJSU's offense hasn't struggled quite as much as their defense, but they still don't rank in the top half of FBS in any significant category. They have capable players at the skill positions that can bust a big play at any time. They have an experienced OL, but the problem is, it's the same guys they had last season when they only had 4 100-yard rushing games in 13 games, against a WAC schedule. How they plan on consistently running against BYU's front 7 has to be their biggest concern.
If they can't run, they will have to turn to the passing game. They are experienced, but small. Their WRs are all smaller than FS Travis Uale, their TE is just 10 pounds bigger than SS Daniel Sorensen. Their best chance is to get their slot receivers the ball matched up against LBs, if they can. The biggest weakness for BYU's D is pass coverage. The corners are pretty good to this point, but the safeties and LBs have proven to be fairly poor in the passing game. SJSU must test the middle of the field in the passing game. That is where their big plays are to be found.
I don't think SJSU can get enough of those big plays to keep their team in the game. They should score once or twice, set up by big plays, but I don't them being able to consistently move the ball down the field on BYU's D. A conservative, bend-but-don't-break defensive plan, may prevent SJSU from scoring much at all: if BYU doesn't give up big plays, SJSU won't be able to score.
Prediction
This is just the kind of opponent BYU needs right now, coming off an emotional win where the offense finally moved the ball. BYU should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Riley should able up the big play potential a bit more on offense. And, if they can control the middle of the field in the passing game, the defense should be able to dominate this game from start to finish. BYU 41, San Jose State 10.
Arizona State at Utah, 10/8/2011
All signs point to Arizona State in this game. Utah just got destroyed in their first Pac 12 home game, after a bye week (where K-Whit traditionally has a phenomenal record). They are starting a QB in his first collegiate start against one of the most relentless defenses in the Pac 12. Arizona State has a very tall, mobile QB that is coming into his own in his first full season as a starter. Their rushing attack has been working to the tune of 140 yards per game, 4 yards per carry, and 2 TDs per game.
The Utah offense, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, even having a seasoned QB through the first four games of the season. Now, with a below-standard Utah rushing game, they have to try to put together a passing game with a QB making his first Division I start that only had 1 scholarship offer out of Junior College. It doesn't look good for the Ute offense right now. The defense, which is in better shape as far as personnel is concerned, is coming off a 411-yard 31-point effort. They got gashed on the ground and through the air against a Washington team that isn't supposed to be as good as Arizona State.
Yet, these are the kinds of games that Utah seems to surprise everyone (excluding the game at Notre Dame last season), the games when no one gives them a chance. Well, they have no chance to win this game. Their season very much rides in the balance here. A loss to Arizona State could easily spiral into a 4-game losing streak with two road games ahead of them against suddenly resurgent Pitt and a Cal team that played with Oregon for a half. A 4-game losing streak makes the possibility of a bowl game all that much tougher in their inaugural Pac 12 campaign. And this is a difficult contest against a ranked opponent that can establish a strangle-hold on top of the Pac 12 South.
So naturally, given how obvious it is that Utah is outmatched, I'm picking the Utes to pull off the upset at home. I think Ute QB Jon Hays plays the game of his life and saves Utah's season. John White IV puts up 150 yards on the ground and has two 40-yard TD runs. WR DeVonte Christopher puts a crack block on LB Vontaze Burfict in the first quarter that dizzies him for the remainder of the affair. The defense puts a hurting on QB Brock Osweiler and contains RB Cameron Marshall. WRs Aaron Pflugrad and Gerell Robinson become scared to go across the middle of the field after several big hits in the cold and elevation of Salt Lake City. Utah goes +4 in the turnover battle. After the game, Arizona State is the team that suddenly has all the question marks.
K, so maybe that is a slight exaggeration of affairs, but I do think the pride of the Utes causes them to really step up this week and pull off the upset. Utah 27, Arizona State 20.
The Utah offense, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, even having a seasoned QB through the first four games of the season. Now, with a below-standard Utah rushing game, they have to try to put together a passing game with a QB making his first Division I start that only had 1 scholarship offer out of Junior College. It doesn't look good for the Ute offense right now. The defense, which is in better shape as far as personnel is concerned, is coming off a 411-yard 31-point effort. They got gashed on the ground and through the air against a Washington team that isn't supposed to be as good as Arizona State.
Yet, these are the kinds of games that Utah seems to surprise everyone (excluding the game at Notre Dame last season), the games when no one gives them a chance. Well, they have no chance to win this game. Their season very much rides in the balance here. A loss to Arizona State could easily spiral into a 4-game losing streak with two road games ahead of them against suddenly resurgent Pitt and a Cal team that played with Oregon for a half. A 4-game losing streak makes the possibility of a bowl game all that much tougher in their inaugural Pac 12 campaign. And this is a difficult contest against a ranked opponent that can establish a strangle-hold on top of the Pac 12 South.
So naturally, given how obvious it is that Utah is outmatched, I'm picking the Utes to pull off the upset at home. I think Ute QB Jon Hays plays the game of his life and saves Utah's season. John White IV puts up 150 yards on the ground and has two 40-yard TD runs. WR DeVonte Christopher puts a crack block on LB Vontaze Burfict in the first quarter that dizzies him for the remainder of the affair. The defense puts a hurting on QB Brock Osweiler and contains RB Cameron Marshall. WRs Aaron Pflugrad and Gerell Robinson become scared to go across the middle of the field after several big hits in the cold and elevation of Salt Lake City. Utah goes +4 in the turnover battle. After the game, Arizona State is the team that suddenly has all the question marks.
K, so maybe that is a slight exaggeration of affairs, but I do think the pride of the Utes causes them to really step up this week and pull off the upset. Utah 27, Arizona State 20.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Week 6 Predictions, 10/7/2011
Boise State at Fresno State
The Broncos showed a little vulnerability last week with a sluggish 'revenge' win against Nevada. It was Kellen Moore's worst statistical game in quite some time. It was the first time Boise State scored less than 31 points since their 26-3 bowl game victory against Utah to end last season. It was the Broncos' lowest point total on the blue turf since their season opening 19-8 win against Oregon in 2009, yes 2.5 seasons ago. The Broncos travel to play the Fresno State Bulldogs, which have, surprisingly, had a horrendous defense in 2011 thus far, usually that is the one thing you can count on with Fresno State. This is Boise State's last chance to show the country what it can do on ESPN, as they enter Mountain West Conference play and disappear from a National Television audience. I suspect they will rebound and play better offensively and show the country they are still Boise State. Tough game though, in a tough environment, against an opponent that knows them very well. Boise State 34, Fresno State 24.
Oklahoma vs. Texas
The Sooners are a better team. They are a more confident team. They have the bigger playmakers. They have the more aggressive defense. But, I tell you what, Texas has been playing with a passion since halftime of the BYU game. Since falling behind 13-0 against BYU in week 2, Texas has outscored opponents 103-37. None of the opponents were anywhere near Oklahoma's abilities but they did that in two road games against BCS conference opponents that are likely to be bowl-bound this season. I wouldn't count Texas out of this one, as most experts do. Texas cannot afford to fall behind by 2 scores in the first half or OU will step on the gas pedal and it could get ugly fast. OU better play hungry or they might find themselves in a dogfight. OU has survived two of those thus far against quality opponents. Texas has only been in one dogfight, though not against a team currently of the caliber of Florida State or Missouri, and survived. Will Texas rise to the occasion in its first real test of the season? With a young set of QBs, I wouldn't put my money on it. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20.
Air Force at Notre Dame
I'd like to call this my upset of the weekend, but I'm not prepared to go there. I think the LBs of Notre Dame are too active for Air Force to consistently drive the ball down the field and consistently convert on third down. Air Force needs to play some risky football to win this one. They need to take a couple of deep shots in the passing game against an average secondary that will likely be playing a lot of man coverage, or at least have guys on islands. They need to go for it on fourth and short. They need to be the aggressor. If they can put the ND LBs on their heels, they have a chance. If Manti Te'o and company are in attack mode from start to finish, Air Force will have a tough time keeping it close. I have also been very disappointed with Air Force's defense this season. I expected them to stop somebody to this point, and, in fact, I thought it would be a really good defense. But two FCS opponents scored 20 and 24 on them. TCU dropped 35 on them in Colorado Springs. Navy got into the 30's, though it required OT to do it. Air Force scheduled two FCS opponents so they could get through this part of the season: this is their second straight road trip east of the Mississippi, and with a Thursday night conference game next week looming. I love the Academy, but not this year, not this game. Notre Dame 34, Air Force 17.
Florida at LSU
A true freshman making his first collegiate start on the road at LSU? After what I saw from him at home against Alabama, I don't have high hopes. Florida's defense may keep them in the game, but the frosh is going to have to make some plays and keep the time of possession battle close. No chance of that happening. LSU 31, Florida 13. And I'm being generous to Florida, I think. If it weren't for LSU's inability to stay interested for four quarters on offense, this game it'd be a blowout.
Mizzou at Kansas State
I'm not completely sold on K-State yet. They eked out a win against FCS Eastern Kentucky in Week One. They did get a solid win on the road at Miami (a team that is on the verge of imploding). They beat Robert Griffin III, but 22 on 1 is hardly a fair fight. And it even took a miraculous comeback to get that done. At home. Missouri is 0-2 on the road, but they did have a bye week to get ready for this game. In the current age of the Big XII, he with the better passing game triumphs. Mizzou has that. In a surprisingly low-scoring affair, Missouri 27, Kansas State 20.
Auburn at Arkansas
How do these two follow last season's touchdown fest? Well, while this won't be quite as high-scoring (65-43), I do expect plenty of fireworks from both sides. Auburn did show that it wasn't all about their offense as they held Mr. Hyde South Carolina to 13 points in a grind it out 16-13 win last week. However, this week it's back to the high-flying theatrics. I like Arkansas at home, paying the Tigers back for the 65 they dropped on The Plains last season. Arkansas 45, Auburn 31.
Michigan 42, Northwestern 27. The Wildcats broke my heart last weekend. I'm not sure they recover in time for this game. Michigan WALKS to a 11-1 record or better. I'm not saying they're not a top 25 team, but they're not a top 10 team, and that's where they'll be by season's end in this WEAK Big Ten. They play 8 home games (this weekend is the first). Their toughest road game is at Illinois, and does anybody actually think the Illini are for real? Their 3 games outside of the state of Michigan: at Northwestern, at Iowa, at Illinois. Hoke should thank his predecessor for the cake-walk schedule and somewhat talented team he walked into.
Wisconsin is on the same track: only 4 road games, toughest one at Illinois. Their biggest win all season will be against a vastly overrated Nebraska team. Wisconsin at 12-0/11-1, Michigan at 11-1 in the Big Ten Title game. Wisconsin wins and goes to the Rose Bowl (it better not be a National Championship Game appearance on the line, are you kidding me with that schedule? Is that really better than Boise State's by that much? Talk crap about the MWC all you want, but I'll take 6 road games over 4 any day of the week. And UNLV, Oregon State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota? Give me a break).
Tennessee 28, Georgia 21. This should be a good game, with Georgia playing good ball of late and Tennesse having a lot of success at home this season.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech
I have a friend that is a big Aggie fan. Besides beating Texas, all she wants in life is a Win in Lubbock for Texas A&M. She got that wish in 2009, but prior to that, A&M lost 7 straight at Texas Tech. They always struggle, even when the Aggies are clearly better. After second half collapses led to two straight defeats, it's tough to determine where their heads are going to be. I like Tuberville's Red Raiders, they have three big wins with only one struggle game thus far. A&M is 2-2, and if they were mentally tough they'd be 4-0 in knocking on the door of the top 5. They are not mentally tough, and it will show in Lubbock as they get upset by Texas Tech. Texas Tech 38, Texas A&M 27.
Stanford 52, Colorado 17. Pac 12's new additions 0-6 against the former Pac 10 teams? Could happen with Utah limping into a home game against Arizona State (my preview of that game to come under separate cover).
Nebraska 27, Ohio State 13.
Wyoming at Utah State
This is a big game for the Aggies. They MUST win this game. If they drop to 1-4, their chances of going to a bowl game are very slim with at least two losses left on the schedule. Utah State has had "signature wins" or at least near-wins each season under Gary Andersen. But they never seem to follow that up with anything substantial. They tend to start the season with promise, and collapse as October gets started. They nearly beat defending National Champion Auburn on the road to open the season. Then they follow that up with a loss at home to Colorado State (coming off a bye, no less) and an excruciatingly close loss at BYU. Wyoming has quietly, and I mean very quietly, gone 3-1, with two wins against FCS opponents. They played one good team at home and lost big, they played one not completely mediocre team on the road and eked out a one-point win. Here they get another not completely mediocre team on the road. But this team is desperate and the Aggies get it done. Utah State 37, Wyoming 27.
TCU at San Diego State
The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily on defense. Problem is: their biggest struggles are against the pass. SDSU doesn't have the horses in the passing game for me to call this upset. I like SDSU's chances, and I may flip on this game before 8:30pm Mountain Time on Saturday night, but right now, I like TCU's balanced attack and their ability to slow down SDSU's running game enough to come out on top on Montezuma Mesa. TCU 31, SDSU 24.
Any other games this weekend that you want me to look into my crystal ball for? Georgia Tech, Florida State, Ball State, Illinois, Pitt, OK State, Penn State, Virginia Tech are all winners this weekend in my book. I like Navy in a good game against Southern Miss, same with Baylor over Iowa State and Washington State over UCLA. If there ever was a Saturday in the fall to go fishing or watch the MLB Playoffs (congrats, Detroit, well played game tonight) instead of spending the day watching college football or tracking scores or calling me for updates, this is probably it. After 12 upsets in the "major" games and several mammoth fourth-quarter collapses last weekend, I expect to see a lot of favorites taking care of business, and in relatively convincing fashion, this weekend.
The Broncos showed a little vulnerability last week with a sluggish 'revenge' win against Nevada. It was Kellen Moore's worst statistical game in quite some time. It was the first time Boise State scored less than 31 points since their 26-3 bowl game victory against Utah to end last season. It was the Broncos' lowest point total on the blue turf since their season opening 19-8 win against Oregon in 2009, yes 2.5 seasons ago. The Broncos travel to play the Fresno State Bulldogs, which have, surprisingly, had a horrendous defense in 2011 thus far, usually that is the one thing you can count on with Fresno State. This is Boise State's last chance to show the country what it can do on ESPN, as they enter Mountain West Conference play and disappear from a National Television audience. I suspect they will rebound and play better offensively and show the country they are still Boise State. Tough game though, in a tough environment, against an opponent that knows them very well. Boise State 34, Fresno State 24.
Oklahoma vs. Texas
The Sooners are a better team. They are a more confident team. They have the bigger playmakers. They have the more aggressive defense. But, I tell you what, Texas has been playing with a passion since halftime of the BYU game. Since falling behind 13-0 against BYU in week 2, Texas has outscored opponents 103-37. None of the opponents were anywhere near Oklahoma's abilities but they did that in two road games against BCS conference opponents that are likely to be bowl-bound this season. I wouldn't count Texas out of this one, as most experts do. Texas cannot afford to fall behind by 2 scores in the first half or OU will step on the gas pedal and it could get ugly fast. OU better play hungry or they might find themselves in a dogfight. OU has survived two of those thus far against quality opponents. Texas has only been in one dogfight, though not against a team currently of the caliber of Florida State or Missouri, and survived. Will Texas rise to the occasion in its first real test of the season? With a young set of QBs, I wouldn't put my money on it. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20.
Air Force at Notre Dame
I'd like to call this my upset of the weekend, but I'm not prepared to go there. I think the LBs of Notre Dame are too active for Air Force to consistently drive the ball down the field and consistently convert on third down. Air Force needs to play some risky football to win this one. They need to take a couple of deep shots in the passing game against an average secondary that will likely be playing a lot of man coverage, or at least have guys on islands. They need to go for it on fourth and short. They need to be the aggressor. If they can put the ND LBs on their heels, they have a chance. If Manti Te'o and company are in attack mode from start to finish, Air Force will have a tough time keeping it close. I have also been very disappointed with Air Force's defense this season. I expected them to stop somebody to this point, and, in fact, I thought it would be a really good defense. But two FCS opponents scored 20 and 24 on them. TCU dropped 35 on them in Colorado Springs. Navy got into the 30's, though it required OT to do it. Air Force scheduled two FCS opponents so they could get through this part of the season: this is their second straight road trip east of the Mississippi, and with a Thursday night conference game next week looming. I love the Academy, but not this year, not this game. Notre Dame 34, Air Force 17.
Florida at LSU
A true freshman making his first collegiate start on the road at LSU? After what I saw from him at home against Alabama, I don't have high hopes. Florida's defense may keep them in the game, but the frosh is going to have to make some plays and keep the time of possession battle close. No chance of that happening. LSU 31, Florida 13. And I'm being generous to Florida, I think. If it weren't for LSU's inability to stay interested for four quarters on offense, this game it'd be a blowout.
Mizzou at Kansas State
I'm not completely sold on K-State yet. They eked out a win against FCS Eastern Kentucky in Week One. They did get a solid win on the road at Miami (a team that is on the verge of imploding). They beat Robert Griffin III, but 22 on 1 is hardly a fair fight. And it even took a miraculous comeback to get that done. At home. Missouri is 0-2 on the road, but they did have a bye week to get ready for this game. In the current age of the Big XII, he with the better passing game triumphs. Mizzou has that. In a surprisingly low-scoring affair, Missouri 27, Kansas State 20.
Auburn at Arkansas
How do these two follow last season's touchdown fest? Well, while this won't be quite as high-scoring (65-43), I do expect plenty of fireworks from both sides. Auburn did show that it wasn't all about their offense as they held Mr. Hyde South Carolina to 13 points in a grind it out 16-13 win last week. However, this week it's back to the high-flying theatrics. I like Arkansas at home, paying the Tigers back for the 65 they dropped on The Plains last season. Arkansas 45, Auburn 31.
Michigan 42, Northwestern 27. The Wildcats broke my heart last weekend. I'm not sure they recover in time for this game. Michigan WALKS to a 11-1 record or better. I'm not saying they're not a top 25 team, but they're not a top 10 team, and that's where they'll be by season's end in this WEAK Big Ten. They play 8 home games (this weekend is the first). Their toughest road game is at Illinois, and does anybody actually think the Illini are for real? Their 3 games outside of the state of Michigan: at Northwestern, at Iowa, at Illinois. Hoke should thank his predecessor for the cake-walk schedule and somewhat talented team he walked into.
Wisconsin is on the same track: only 4 road games, toughest one at Illinois. Their biggest win all season will be against a vastly overrated Nebraska team. Wisconsin at 12-0/11-1, Michigan at 11-1 in the Big Ten Title game. Wisconsin wins and goes to the Rose Bowl (it better not be a National Championship Game appearance on the line, are you kidding me with that schedule? Is that really better than Boise State's by that much? Talk crap about the MWC all you want, but I'll take 6 road games over 4 any day of the week. And UNLV, Oregon State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota? Give me a break).
Tennessee 28, Georgia 21. This should be a good game, with Georgia playing good ball of late and Tennesse having a lot of success at home this season.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech
I have a friend that is a big Aggie fan. Besides beating Texas, all she wants in life is a Win in Lubbock for Texas A&M. She got that wish in 2009, but prior to that, A&M lost 7 straight at Texas Tech. They always struggle, even when the Aggies are clearly better. After second half collapses led to two straight defeats, it's tough to determine where their heads are going to be. I like Tuberville's Red Raiders, they have three big wins with only one struggle game thus far. A&M is 2-2, and if they were mentally tough they'd be 4-0 in knocking on the door of the top 5. They are not mentally tough, and it will show in Lubbock as they get upset by Texas Tech. Texas Tech 38, Texas A&M 27.
Stanford 52, Colorado 17. Pac 12's new additions 0-6 against the former Pac 10 teams? Could happen with Utah limping into a home game against Arizona State (my preview of that game to come under separate cover).
Nebraska 27, Ohio State 13.
Wyoming at Utah State
This is a big game for the Aggies. They MUST win this game. If they drop to 1-4, their chances of going to a bowl game are very slim with at least two losses left on the schedule. Utah State has had "signature wins" or at least near-wins each season under Gary Andersen. But they never seem to follow that up with anything substantial. They tend to start the season with promise, and collapse as October gets started. They nearly beat defending National Champion Auburn on the road to open the season. Then they follow that up with a loss at home to Colorado State (coming off a bye, no less) and an excruciatingly close loss at BYU. Wyoming has quietly, and I mean very quietly, gone 3-1, with two wins against FCS opponents. They played one good team at home and lost big, they played one not completely mediocre team on the road and eked out a one-point win. Here they get another not completely mediocre team on the road. But this team is desperate and the Aggies get it done. Utah State 37, Wyoming 27.
TCU at San Diego State
The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily on defense. Problem is: their biggest struggles are against the pass. SDSU doesn't have the horses in the passing game for me to call this upset. I like SDSU's chances, and I may flip on this game before 8:30pm Mountain Time on Saturday night, but right now, I like TCU's balanced attack and their ability to slow down SDSU's running game enough to come out on top on Montezuma Mesa. TCU 31, SDSU 24.
Any other games this weekend that you want me to look into my crystal ball for? Georgia Tech, Florida State, Ball State, Illinois, Pitt, OK State, Penn State, Virginia Tech are all winners this weekend in my book. I like Navy in a good game against Southern Miss, same with Baylor over Iowa State and Washington State over UCLA. If there ever was a Saturday in the fall to go fishing or watch the MLB Playoffs (congrats, Detroit, well played game tonight) instead of spending the day watching college football or tracking scores or calling me for updates, this is probably it. After 12 upsets in the "major" games and several mammoth fourth-quarter collapses last weekend, I expect to see a lot of favorites taking care of business, and in relatively convincing fashion, this weekend.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Thursday Thoughts, 10/6/2011
Why I Love You Tube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weS8U5zLXHs
BYU and the Big XII
I have a more lengthy diatribe on this that you can read here: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/byu-and-big-xii.html
The media, which hasn't ever been wrong when it comes to expansion rumors (ha ha), seems to think BYU to the Big XII is a foregone conclusion. As much as I don't want to see BYU pull a Utah State and turn down an invitation that may be the death knell of the program, I just can't help but feel that Independence could work out well for BYU, as long as there are any Independents in the FBS.
I have been asked many times about BYU's path to Independence and I present the same arguments to anyone that asks. I have learned one thing: those with a disposition to hate BYU (most Ute fans, those who hate Mormons, and Mormons that cheer for Arizona State) think BYU's choice is idiotic and arrogant, which happen to be the same traits that they apply to all BYU fans, and those with a more open mind think Independence is a sweet deal for BYU, including several Big XII fans I have discussed it with. If Big XII fans, once they are acquianted with the particulars of BYU's situation, are willing to say that BYU should definitely stay Independent instead of going to the Big XII, it's safe to say there is some merit to it. Granted, fans may not be the best resource for determining conference alignment, but still, there is SOME merit to it.
There is no rush to jump into this thing. Clearly, BYU has taken the same approach. The biggest "rush" would be if BYU were to jump to the Big XII for the 2012 season: they have a lot of scheduled games to cancel for 2012. And 2013. Teams would need time (and monetary compensation) for those cancellations. The Big XII would probably have to pick up the tab for that, which may be one negative in picking up BYU, a negative probably totalling well over a million dollars when all is said and done. However, picking up any team currently in a conference will cost the Big XII money, as every conference has some kind of penalty for leaving with such short notice. Perhaps BYU becomes a bargain in that environment. Who knows. It's not a foregone conclusion. Independence can work, but only if BYU produces on the field. [If BYU is going to start every season 3-2, they might as well at least be in a BCS conference.]
Jake and Riley
I think this is Jake Heaps' best chance to have a solid outing. He is facing by far the "smallest" of the defenses he has faced so far this season. The LBs, on average, are the size of RB Bryan Kariya. The DBs, on average, are the size of WR McKay Jacobson. The DEs, on average, are smaller than TE Austin Holt. Physically, these LBs shouldn't be able to get off BYU's OL blocks or punish BYU's RBs in the running game. The DBs shouldn't be able to cover two 6'4" 205 pound WRs, or any of the TEs either. The two DTs shouldn't get manhandled by the three 300-pounders lining up across from them every play.
All of that aside, I think Heaps should get one more shot, even if it is a brief one, to get things going. Maybe it's Heaps' fault the offense has been sluggish. But the offense came to life in the fourth quarter last week. They looked excited to be out there for once. He has not played with an offense like that this season and if they can bring that same intensity to the SJSU game, Heaps may have a special night. Now almost certainly, it was Riley Nelson that brought that out of the offense, but, now that they know they have that extra gear, if the offense could play like that for Jake, with that heart, it might resemble what we all anticipated prior to the season.
Now if Jake isn't working out, say late in the second quarter, then by all means, give Riley a possession to end the half (BYU has been wildly unproductive that drive anyway, which has cost BYU a lot of momentum in each game this season so far). I am in no way stating that BYU should go back to last season's alternating series approach. I would give Jake 3 or 4 series to produce. However, that doesn't mean Riley Nelson can't see a few snaps in those series. Riley provides a change of pace, but he can still provide that in a play or two under center randomly thrown in. He doesn't need entire series, quarters, or halves to provide that.
Experienced D
This is the most experienced defense BYU will face this season. They return every starter from last season and, I believe, 18 of the 22 players on the 2-deep from last season. BYU will not confuse this defense with tricky formations or gadget plays. These guys played against Utah, Nevada, Boise State, and Utah State last season. They've seen it all.
Riley Nelson's mobility won't be anything new to them. These guys played against Colin Kaepernick, Diondre Borel, and Bryant Moniz last season. Kaepernick and Borel were better runners than Riley, and Kaepernick and Moniz were better throwers. BYU will have to rely on their biggest weakness so far to move the ball on this defense: execution.
BYU will have to get push upfront against SJSU's big DTs (the only not small part of the defense) to get the running game going. BYU will have to protect against the speed rush of the DEs. They must block SJSU's front four well. If it takes all 5 OL to block those 4 DL, do it: missing ONE block has killed this offense. A LB making a tackle at the point of attack makes for 2nd and 8. A DL making a tackle in the backfield makes for 2nd and 12. BYU's RBs are also more likely to break an LB tackle than they are a DL one (go watch the film if you don't believe me, or just trust me, that is a factual statement I made). Block the front four, succeed in the rushing attack. Add a FB as a lead blocker, and it's even better. Run Riley with two lead blockers and it could really take off. But BYU's OL need to block the front four better than they have been.
The WRs need to get open. Cody Hoffman put on a beautiful double move last week before making a diving catch. BYU needs more of that. Guys are just not getting open. On that game-winning TD, JJ DiLuigi got beat to the ball by the Utah State defender. I think that's the kind of "coverage" (read lack of getting open) that Heaps is seeing all game long. Riley was able to buy time with his legs, and that gave the defense trouble covering for that long, because they jumped the routes so well. If BYU is to succeed, and if Heaps is EVER to succeed at BYU, the WRs need to start getting off the line and getting out of their breaks faster. And, for heaven's sake, throw the ball to Cody Hoffman. BYU has been waiting for a receiver to break out: there's your man! Target him more than 6 times a game.
BYU must execute. They must play smart, but with some heart. This isn't a finesse game. This isn't a game to trick the opponent. This is a power game. This is about beating your man, knocking him on his butt, and making him beg for the final whistle. Execute. Dominate. Win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weS8U5zLXHs
BYU and the Big XII
I have a more lengthy diatribe on this that you can read here: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/byu-and-big-xii.html
The media, which hasn't ever been wrong when it comes to expansion rumors (ha ha), seems to think BYU to the Big XII is a foregone conclusion. As much as I don't want to see BYU pull a Utah State and turn down an invitation that may be the death knell of the program, I just can't help but feel that Independence could work out well for BYU, as long as there are any Independents in the FBS.
I have been asked many times about BYU's path to Independence and I present the same arguments to anyone that asks. I have learned one thing: those with a disposition to hate BYU (most Ute fans, those who hate Mormons, and Mormons that cheer for Arizona State) think BYU's choice is idiotic and arrogant, which happen to be the same traits that they apply to all BYU fans, and those with a more open mind think Independence is a sweet deal for BYU, including several Big XII fans I have discussed it with. If Big XII fans, once they are acquianted with the particulars of BYU's situation, are willing to say that BYU should definitely stay Independent instead of going to the Big XII, it's safe to say there is some merit to it. Granted, fans may not be the best resource for determining conference alignment, but still, there is SOME merit to it.
There is no rush to jump into this thing. Clearly, BYU has taken the same approach. The biggest "rush" would be if BYU were to jump to the Big XII for the 2012 season: they have a lot of scheduled games to cancel for 2012. And 2013. Teams would need time (and monetary compensation) for those cancellations. The Big XII would probably have to pick up the tab for that, which may be one negative in picking up BYU, a negative probably totalling well over a million dollars when all is said and done. However, picking up any team currently in a conference will cost the Big XII money, as every conference has some kind of penalty for leaving with such short notice. Perhaps BYU becomes a bargain in that environment. Who knows. It's not a foregone conclusion. Independence can work, but only if BYU produces on the field. [If BYU is going to start every season 3-2, they might as well at least be in a BCS conference.]
Jake and Riley
I think this is Jake Heaps' best chance to have a solid outing. He is facing by far the "smallest" of the defenses he has faced so far this season. The LBs, on average, are the size of RB Bryan Kariya. The DBs, on average, are the size of WR McKay Jacobson. The DEs, on average, are smaller than TE Austin Holt. Physically, these LBs shouldn't be able to get off BYU's OL blocks or punish BYU's RBs in the running game. The DBs shouldn't be able to cover two 6'4" 205 pound WRs, or any of the TEs either. The two DTs shouldn't get manhandled by the three 300-pounders lining up across from them every play.
All of that aside, I think Heaps should get one more shot, even if it is a brief one, to get things going. Maybe it's Heaps' fault the offense has been sluggish. But the offense came to life in the fourth quarter last week. They looked excited to be out there for once. He has not played with an offense like that this season and if they can bring that same intensity to the SJSU game, Heaps may have a special night. Now almost certainly, it was Riley Nelson that brought that out of the offense, but, now that they know they have that extra gear, if the offense could play like that for Jake, with that heart, it might resemble what we all anticipated prior to the season.
Now if Jake isn't working out, say late in the second quarter, then by all means, give Riley a possession to end the half (BYU has been wildly unproductive that drive anyway, which has cost BYU a lot of momentum in each game this season so far). I am in no way stating that BYU should go back to last season's alternating series approach. I would give Jake 3 or 4 series to produce. However, that doesn't mean Riley Nelson can't see a few snaps in those series. Riley provides a change of pace, but he can still provide that in a play or two under center randomly thrown in. He doesn't need entire series, quarters, or halves to provide that.
Experienced D
This is the most experienced defense BYU will face this season. They return every starter from last season and, I believe, 18 of the 22 players on the 2-deep from last season. BYU will not confuse this defense with tricky formations or gadget plays. These guys played against Utah, Nevada, Boise State, and Utah State last season. They've seen it all.
Riley Nelson's mobility won't be anything new to them. These guys played against Colin Kaepernick, Diondre Borel, and Bryant Moniz last season. Kaepernick and Borel were better runners than Riley, and Kaepernick and Moniz were better throwers. BYU will have to rely on their biggest weakness so far to move the ball on this defense: execution.
BYU will have to get push upfront against SJSU's big DTs (the only not small part of the defense) to get the running game going. BYU will have to protect against the speed rush of the DEs. They must block SJSU's front four well. If it takes all 5 OL to block those 4 DL, do it: missing ONE block has killed this offense. A LB making a tackle at the point of attack makes for 2nd and 8. A DL making a tackle in the backfield makes for 2nd and 12. BYU's RBs are also more likely to break an LB tackle than they are a DL one (go watch the film if you don't believe me, or just trust me, that is a factual statement I made). Block the front four, succeed in the rushing attack. Add a FB as a lead blocker, and it's even better. Run Riley with two lead blockers and it could really take off. But BYU's OL need to block the front four better than they have been.
The WRs need to get open. Cody Hoffman put on a beautiful double move last week before making a diving catch. BYU needs more of that. Guys are just not getting open. On that game-winning TD, JJ DiLuigi got beat to the ball by the Utah State defender. I think that's the kind of "coverage" (read lack of getting open) that Heaps is seeing all game long. Riley was able to buy time with his legs, and that gave the defense trouble covering for that long, because they jumped the routes so well. If BYU is to succeed, and if Heaps is EVER to succeed at BYU, the WRs need to start getting off the line and getting out of their breaks faster. And, for heaven's sake, throw the ball to Cody Hoffman. BYU has been waiting for a receiver to break out: there's your man! Target him more than 6 times a game.
BYU must execute. They must play smart, but with some heart. This isn't a finesse game. This isn't a game to trick the opponent. This is a power game. This is about beating your man, knocking him on his butt, and making him beg for the final whistle. Execute. Dominate. Win.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Tuesday Tidbits
Crossing the 50
BYU got to the 50-yard line in 4 drives with Heaps as the QB and managed 13 points. With Nelson at the reigns, BYU also had 4 possessions, and managed a whopping, well, 14 points. 8 possessions, 27 points. In 6 possessions against UCF, the offense managed 17 points. 8 possessions against Utah, 10 points. 6 possessions against Texas, 16 points. 6 possessions against Ole Miss, 7 points. With the exception of the Utah game, there has been steady improvement here. However, it is very slow, and very incremental.
This offense shouldn't feel so young anymore. The fact that they scored on 63% of their possessions against Utah State should seem better, especially considering how many possessions they had on the plus-side of the 50. But there are still too many turnovers, too many field goals, too many false starts, and too many negative plays. In 34 possessions, BYU has scored on 15 of them, 7 field goals and 8 TDs. The overall percentage is climbing, as is the TD percentage, but until it gets to about 60-65%, BYU will struggle to win, or win convincingly against lesser opponents. BYU can survive against San Jose State, Idaho State, New Mexico State, Idaho, and possibly even Oregon State with such a low percentage, but not TCU or Hawaii. BYU needs to continue to cross the 50 around 7 times a game, they need to score 5 times, with at least 4 TDs. I realize it's easier said than done.
Riley's Red Zone
Riley Nelson shot down his critics last week by putting on a display with his arm. Most people, including myself, do not believe he can succeed, long-term, as a Division I QB. But he is certainly improved from last season and maybe that assessment isn't as true now as it was before. His accuracy was good. His velocity was better than before. His two passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air were both completed. Given that his arm is not as bad as we thought, I think it's time BYU employs him more, at least in the red zone. Jake Heaps has been in the red zone on 12 possessions and has only thrown 2 TDs (one each in the first two games). Clearly, the passing game isn't getting the job done in the red zone.
BYU also only has 3 rushing TDs in those 12 possessions. So the rushing attack isn't exactly lighting it up either. Doman said he played Riley Nelson in the second half just to mix it up a bit and try something different. The red zone offense could use a little "mixing" as well. This is operating under the assumption that Heaps is the starter, and Riley actually gets used more in the offense.
Other situations I would like to see Riley Nelson used: the first play after a turnover (while the defense is busy looking for their helmets and not paying attention to who comes in at QB), 2nd and short, and any down and distance lined up in the slot. How about you all? I know some of you want to see him as the full-time starter. So comment up!
BYU got to the 50-yard line in 4 drives with Heaps as the QB and managed 13 points. With Nelson at the reigns, BYU also had 4 possessions, and managed a whopping, well, 14 points. 8 possessions, 27 points. In 6 possessions against UCF, the offense managed 17 points. 8 possessions against Utah, 10 points. 6 possessions against Texas, 16 points. 6 possessions against Ole Miss, 7 points. With the exception of the Utah game, there has been steady improvement here. However, it is very slow, and very incremental.
This offense shouldn't feel so young anymore. The fact that they scored on 63% of their possessions against Utah State should seem better, especially considering how many possessions they had on the plus-side of the 50. But there are still too many turnovers, too many field goals, too many false starts, and too many negative plays. In 34 possessions, BYU has scored on 15 of them, 7 field goals and 8 TDs. The overall percentage is climbing, as is the TD percentage, but until it gets to about 60-65%, BYU will struggle to win, or win convincingly against lesser opponents. BYU can survive against San Jose State, Idaho State, New Mexico State, Idaho, and possibly even Oregon State with such a low percentage, but not TCU or Hawaii. BYU needs to continue to cross the 50 around 7 times a game, they need to score 5 times, with at least 4 TDs. I realize it's easier said than done.
Riley's Red Zone
Riley Nelson shot down his critics last week by putting on a display with his arm. Most people, including myself, do not believe he can succeed, long-term, as a Division I QB. But he is certainly improved from last season and maybe that assessment isn't as true now as it was before. His accuracy was good. His velocity was better than before. His two passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air were both completed. Given that his arm is not as bad as we thought, I think it's time BYU employs him more, at least in the red zone. Jake Heaps has been in the red zone on 12 possessions and has only thrown 2 TDs (one each in the first two games). Clearly, the passing game isn't getting the job done in the red zone.
BYU also only has 3 rushing TDs in those 12 possessions. So the rushing attack isn't exactly lighting it up either. Doman said he played Riley Nelson in the second half just to mix it up a bit and try something different. The red zone offense could use a little "mixing" as well. This is operating under the assumption that Heaps is the starter, and Riley actually gets used more in the offense.
Other situations I would like to see Riley Nelson used: the first play after a turnover (while the defense is busy looking for their helmets and not paying attention to who comes in at QB), 2nd and short, and any down and distance lined up in the slot. How about you all? I know some of you want to see him as the full-time starter. So comment up!
Saturday, October 1, 2011
BYU Resilient in Win Over Utah State
Yeah, boring title to the post. Same one from last week. But hey, it was just another ho-hum victory for BYU, so it got another ho-hum title. Are you kidding me? Where do you even start on a game like this?
Riley Nelson: huge!
A Tight End catching a TD for the first time in 17 games: huge! Could it have come at a better time or in a better way.
Defense stiffening up the last two drives (well, at the end of the second-to-last drive): huge.
I did say that BYU would pull away late, and they didn't disappoint. Haha. I was thinking they might do it with 11 minutes left, not 11 seconds though. I originally had the score 31-20 (before upping BYU to an overly optimistic 38), which wasn't that far off (just 4 points off each team). Another haha...
On a night with a plethora of mental mistakes, including a handful in the final few minutes. Guys picked each other up. That was the difference between tonight and BYU thus far this season. The offense and defense were getting beat in the third quarter. Riley Nelson came in and picked the team up. With a lot of help from Cody Hoffman, picking the team up. Travis Uale takes a bad angle and Utah State gets in scoring position late. Uona Kaveinga picks the team up on a huge third down in space. Daniel Sorensen picks them up on a fake field goal with a solid defensive play. JJ DiLuigi fumbles the game away, essentially. The defense picked him up. JD Falslev doesn't catch a punt at the 32-yard line and it rolls to the four. Riley Nelson picks him up. Riley Nelson scrambles and finds nothing and heaves the ball to no-man's land. McKay Jacobson picks him up. Riley mismanages the clock and BYU loses 13 seconds (with less than 30 to go!). Marcus Matthews picks the team up. Any of those mistakes could have doomed the Cougars. But guys stepped up. That was the difference.
I think the reason it happened that way though was Riley Nelson. What he lacks in arm strength he makes up for in leadership and determination. His grit brought life to BYU's offense for the first time this season. When BYU went down 24-13, a Jake Heaps-led offense would have thrown three straight incompletions and punted. That's no knock on Heaps, that's a knock on the entire offense. They don't respond to the young fellow in crucial situations. But Riley Nelson didn't let BYU falter. Leadership and a confident can-do attitude showed why veteran QBs are important, and why Heaps really missed out not having someone to learn from like Max Hall did. As I've said for a few weeks, Heaps isn't there yet. He may not get a chance again this season with the way Nelson played tonight.
Two final thoughts: first, it was great to see Heaps' attitude on the sideline. He was still into the game. He was still cheering his team on. A lot of times, when a QB gets yanked like he did, the rest of the game they are pacing along the back of the sideline, helmet in hand, seemingly on the verge of a breakdown. Heaps showed his maturity by sticking with it, leaving his helmet on and watching intently right at the edge of the field. Props to him for being a man. Now he just needs to learn to be a man in the pocket.
Second, the defense has to be excited to finally get some rest. BYU dominated time of possession tonight, so the D was fresh enough to hold Utah State to a (fake) field goal attempt in the fourth after a big play. They were fresh enough to force a three and out with very little time left and set up BYU's chance to score at the end. And now next week, they get a game against San Jose State. While it's still a Division I football game, it's got to feel easier than the first 5 games have been going up against big, physical teams. And with the offense finally finding their QB and go-to WR, the D will get a chance to start controlling games as the easier part of the schedule commences. The D survived a brutal September, which should launch them into a very successful October.
Perhaps this BYU team discovered their identity tonight. I didn't ever think that Riley Nelson would be the poster boy for this 2011 season: Rise up!
Riley Nelson: huge!
A Tight End catching a TD for the first time in 17 games: huge! Could it have come at a better time or in a better way.
Defense stiffening up the last two drives (well, at the end of the second-to-last drive): huge.
I did say that BYU would pull away late, and they didn't disappoint. Haha. I was thinking they might do it with 11 minutes left, not 11 seconds though. I originally had the score 31-20 (before upping BYU to an overly optimistic 38), which wasn't that far off (just 4 points off each team). Another haha...
On a night with a plethora of mental mistakes, including a handful in the final few minutes. Guys picked each other up. That was the difference between tonight and BYU thus far this season. The offense and defense were getting beat in the third quarter. Riley Nelson came in and picked the team up. With a lot of help from Cody Hoffman, picking the team up. Travis Uale takes a bad angle and Utah State gets in scoring position late. Uona Kaveinga picks the team up on a huge third down in space. Daniel Sorensen picks them up on a fake field goal with a solid defensive play. JJ DiLuigi fumbles the game away, essentially. The defense picked him up. JD Falslev doesn't catch a punt at the 32-yard line and it rolls to the four. Riley Nelson picks him up. Riley Nelson scrambles and finds nothing and heaves the ball to no-man's land. McKay Jacobson picks him up. Riley mismanages the clock and BYU loses 13 seconds (with less than 30 to go!). Marcus Matthews picks the team up. Any of those mistakes could have doomed the Cougars. But guys stepped up. That was the difference.
I think the reason it happened that way though was Riley Nelson. What he lacks in arm strength he makes up for in leadership and determination. His grit brought life to BYU's offense for the first time this season. When BYU went down 24-13, a Jake Heaps-led offense would have thrown three straight incompletions and punted. That's no knock on Heaps, that's a knock on the entire offense. They don't respond to the young fellow in crucial situations. But Riley Nelson didn't let BYU falter. Leadership and a confident can-do attitude showed why veteran QBs are important, and why Heaps really missed out not having someone to learn from like Max Hall did. As I've said for a few weeks, Heaps isn't there yet. He may not get a chance again this season with the way Nelson played tonight.
Two final thoughts: first, it was great to see Heaps' attitude on the sideline. He was still into the game. He was still cheering his team on. A lot of times, when a QB gets yanked like he did, the rest of the game they are pacing along the back of the sideline, helmet in hand, seemingly on the verge of a breakdown. Heaps showed his maturity by sticking with it, leaving his helmet on and watching intently right at the edge of the field. Props to him for being a man. Now he just needs to learn to be a man in the pocket.
Second, the defense has to be excited to finally get some rest. BYU dominated time of possession tonight, so the D was fresh enough to hold Utah State to a (fake) field goal attempt in the fourth after a big play. They were fresh enough to force a three and out with very little time left and set up BYU's chance to score at the end. And now next week, they get a game against San Jose State. While it's still a Division I football game, it's got to feel easier than the first 5 games have been going up against big, physical teams. And with the offense finally finding their QB and go-to WR, the D will get a chance to start controlling games as the easier part of the schedule commences. The D survived a brutal September, which should launch them into a very successful October.
Perhaps this BYU team discovered their identity tonight. I didn't ever think that Riley Nelson would be the poster boy for this 2011 season: Rise up!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)