Well, my wife is back, and very jet-lagged. That makes for a quiet, lazy Saturday of watching football. Sounds strangely similar to what I've been doing the past few weeks. Come to think of it, that's what we did before she left too. OK, let's see if her return has made me more accurate in my predictions. I didn't put these up, however, for the first time EVER, I had a perfect week of picks heading in to the weekend as I had Marshall, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all coming off as winners. I would like to point out that 2 of those 3 were "upsets" and I still got them. Now, the picks:
Northwestern beats Minnesota, 28-17. Minnesota has played two teams with winning records: Northern Illinois and Ohio State. They are 1-1. That'll be 1-2 after this weekend.
West Virginia over Connecticut, 35-20. Welcome back to the West Virginia offense. Bye-bye to the Big East having a ranked team.
CMU over Indiana, 31-17. Good win for the future MAC champion. The Chippewas are rolling.
Michigan over Purdue, 28-6. Turning point for Michigan? No, they still won't make a bowl game and momentum doesn't carry over 8 months into next season, but still, good win on the road for a team that has struggled mightily no matter where they played.
Tulsa over Arkansas, 42-21. For the second game in a row, Tulsa is held to under 50 points. What's wrong with them?
Wyoming over SDSU, 38-35. Why don't they just cancel this one?
Texas A&M over Colorado, 28-12. The Ags have been playing better and Colorado almost eked out a win last week over Missouri, 58-0. It was a nailbiter.
Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, 34-28. I am having a tough time figuring which of these two teams gets way too much credit. Both coaches have been praised more than they have earned.
Utah State over Hawaii, 28-24. Go Aggies. They almost pulled off the upset over Fresno State last week, this week, they get finally overcome that hurdle.
Oregon over Cal, 35-27. This game is for second place in the Pac 10. I think Oregon is the better TEAM in this matchup and steals one on the road.
Georgia Tech over Florida State, 17-14. I still don't buy into the Florida State hype. The Virginia Tech win was big, showing that they haven't just been winning by beating up on nobodies (though a lot of their wins are against inferior competition). However, Georgia Tech's defense is too good and their offense eats up too much clock for FSU to pull out a road W.
Iowa over Illinois, 31-23. Shonn Green is scary good (Happy Halloween). Iowa is playing good football right now. Their 3 losses are for a combined 9 points against opponents with a record of 18-6 (15-6 if you take out the games where they beat Iowa). The Juice needs a little help and the defense hasn't been able to provide it.
Boise State over New Mexico State, 38-10. Boise State has been the most complete non-BCS school this season. Their defense isn't as good as Utah's or TCU's (TCU and Utah both score points on defense where Boise State just forces teams into 3 and out). However, their offense has been more consistent moving the football than Utah's or TCU's throughout the season. And they've done it with a freshman QB at the helm.
USC over Washington, 49-7. Washington comes out fired up, until the opening kickoff...
South Carolina over Tennessee, 20-14. Is this a farewell tour for Phillip Fulmer? Probably, as he has "underperformed" for several seasons in a row, though if you ask me his teams have performed as good as they are, they are just overrated. This year they have beaten up on inferior competition but they have been beaten down by every decent team on the schedule.
Oklahoma over Nebraska, 58-27. OU's offense proves again it is light year's ahead of its defense. Is Bob Stoops still coaching? How does that happen at OU?
TCU over UNLV, 38-27. UNLV puts up a fight, but loses another heartbreaker. UNLV is playing much better this year, but it'll be another year before they can do more than just compete against the big 3 in the conference. TCU might have been looking ahead a litle bit but still comes away undefeated in MWC play heading in to the big game against Utah.
Big games of the weekend:
Florida over Georgia, 38-21. Georgia gave up 38 to LSU, Florida gave up 21. Coincidence that I picked that as the final score? Nope. It seems about right though, doesn't it?
BYU over Colorado State, 35-24. I saw something from BYU's offense last week that I have been looking for since mid-September: improvement. And they got everyone involved: Fui, Unga, Pitta (at least late), Collie, Reid, Chambers, George, and Hall running the ball. That was key in their first 3 games, but they got away from it after UCLA. Defensively, can the last two plays of the UNLV carry over into this game? No, but the defense will play better. Look for them to actually force a couple of punts this game and maybe even get a couple of turnovers. If CSU were better coached, they would take advantage of Brandon Howard, BYU's 5'9" cornerback, who is one of the worst in-air defenders I've seen in a while, even at BYU who has had some pretty bad one, with their stud WR Greer. But they aren't, most teams aren't. Plus, QB Farris is due for a bad game after several non-bad ones in a row. Maybe Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell can open things up with a solid running game. The problem is: they both run between the tackles, and that is the one place BYU's defense is not all that bad.
Texas Tech over Texas, 31-28. Guns up. I have often thought Tech was overrated, and I think they still are, but they have been waiting for this game a whole lot longer than Texas has and they do have some talent. Plus Tech actually has a pretty decent defense this year. I think Graham Harrell's legs will actually be the difference in this game. He has used them much better this season when teams drop back in coverage. The two backs that split time (Batch and Woods) are pretty darn good too. Crabtree is due for a BIG game. While his yards have been down, his ability to score has not been. While I believe Colt McCoy is one of the best QBs in the country and Texas is probably one of the best teams in the country, I think they fall from the ranks of the unbeaten this weekend in Lubbock in a freak sand storm, though it will come down to one or two plays at the end. I think McCoy just turns it over one time too many.
My other upset pick of the week: New Mexico over Utah, 28-23. Louie Sakoda can only carry them so far. Utah is leading the country in red zone FG's. That means they aren't punching it in when they get close. I think this might be the game where it finally costs them. New Mexico is disciplined on defense, tough as nails on offense, sound on special teams, and they have their backs against the wall when it comes to bowl eligibility. With Utah coming off of a bye where they have read a lot in the national media about how good they are, and with TCU next on the docket, I think they get beat. Last time at New Mexico, Utah had a two score lead in the fourth quarter and managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. While I don't think it will be quite as dramatic as that, I think their deficiencies on offense finally cost them. Looking ahead: if Utah loses this game, they beat TCU, if they win this game, they get beat by TCU. You heard it here first, Utah will lose sometime in the next week. I still believe their defense and special teams are among the 10 best in the country and they are certainly a top 15-20 team (just a few spots behind Boise State and TCU-but a couple spots ahead of BYU), but their offense is not nearly as good as advertised and is dragging their team down.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Thoughts on MLB
Well, as I sat here and lazily watched the Phillies beat the Rays, I contemplated what the Major League Baseball playoffs have given to us the past few seasons. We have been tantalizingly close to having some AWESOME World Series matchups, that never quite came to pass. This year, it could have been Manny and Torre teaming up against Boston (that just doesn't seem right). Not quite. A few years back (before the Red Sox managed to break their curse), we almost had Cubs-Red Sox, but again, the Killer B's, Bartman and Boone, kept that from happening. The ALCS, ALDS, NLCS, and NLDS have continued to give us very memorable moments. In those series we get David vs. Goliath, or Goliath vs. Goliath. But somehow, in the World Series we end up this year with David out-slapping, or last year with Goliath manhandling, Cinderella.
This year, I watched a great back and forth World Series deciding game 5 over the span of 3 days, but it didn't have me hurrying home from work to find out if they actually re-started the game or not. In fact, when I turned on the tube I went to ESPN and ESPN2 first, to see if there was something good to watch on there. To me (and several others I talk to) there was no excitement, no on-the-edge-of-my-seat action, no one to root for and certainly not anyone to root against, because who really cares about either of these teams.
Perhaps the fact that no team was involved from west of the Appalachians put a damper on it, for me and many others. And it wasn't as if either of the two teams were east coast teams people actually care about. It was Tampa and Philly. Tampa Bay. And Philadelphia. The Rays, not to be confused with the Devil Rays. And the Fightin's. It was Matt Garza, and Jamie Moyer. It was Carl Crawford, and Chase Utley. Man would I have loved to watch Manny returning to Fenway in the World Series. I would love to see Torre coaching again against the Red Sox in the postseason. We got Maddon vs. Manuel. We got rookies vs. 45-year olds. We got robbed, is what we got. Perhaps it has become the new American way to "spread the wealth around" since, according to one Presidential candidate, it's better for everybody.
Major League baseball needs to find a way to move the exciting match-ups to the World Series, so we have something to watch after the pennants are decided. No more sweeps. And at least give us one team we either love or hate. David vs. Cinderella doesn't excite, it doesn't sell, it doesn't matter. I would have much rather watched the ever-entertaining, always a drag on his campaign, Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden manage to not wet himself as he rambles on and on like a drunken old, wrinkly version of Howard Dean at a glorified pep rally where he promises America that the one thing they can with certainty expect the first 6 months from an Obama administration is a "test of our mettle" from the rest of the world. At least I would have had a good laugh, until I realized that that guy might actually be the next Vice President of the United States, the first in line to be President if something were to happen to Lord Obama.
This year, I watched a great back and forth World Series deciding game 5 over the span of 3 days, but it didn't have me hurrying home from work to find out if they actually re-started the game or not. In fact, when I turned on the tube I went to ESPN and ESPN2 first, to see if there was something good to watch on there. To me (and several others I talk to) there was no excitement, no on-the-edge-of-my-seat action, no one to root for and certainly not anyone to root against, because who really cares about either of these teams.
Perhaps the fact that no team was involved from west of the Appalachians put a damper on it, for me and many others. And it wasn't as if either of the two teams were east coast teams people actually care about. It was Tampa and Philly. Tampa Bay. And Philadelphia. The Rays, not to be confused with the Devil Rays. And the Fightin's. It was Matt Garza, and Jamie Moyer. It was Carl Crawford, and Chase Utley. Man would I have loved to watch Manny returning to Fenway in the World Series. I would love to see Torre coaching again against the Red Sox in the postseason. We got Maddon vs. Manuel. We got rookies vs. 45-year olds. We got robbed, is what we got. Perhaps it has become the new American way to "spread the wealth around" since, according to one Presidential candidate, it's better for everybody.
Major League baseball needs to find a way to move the exciting match-ups to the World Series, so we have something to watch after the pennants are decided. No more sweeps. And at least give us one team we either love or hate. David vs. Cinderella doesn't excite, it doesn't sell, it doesn't matter. I would have much rather watched the ever-entertaining, always a drag on his campaign, Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden manage to not wet himself as he rambles on and on like a drunken old, wrinkly version of Howard Dean at a glorified pep rally where he promises America that the one thing they can with certainty expect the first 6 months from an Obama administration is a "test of our mettle" from the rest of the world. At least I would have had a good laugh, until I realized that that guy might actually be the next Vice President of the United States, the first in line to be President if something were to happen to Lord Obama.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Week 9 Rankings
Well, here are the rankings. The strength of schedule element was applied, and caused a little shifting. Enjoy and let me know what you think.
| Rank | Team | SOS Rank |
| 1 | Texas | 1 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 11 |
| 3 | OK State | 20 |
| 4 | Florida | 26 |
| 5 | Alabama | 38 |
| 6 | USC | 15 |
| 7 | Boise State | 37 |
| 8 | Penn State | 29 |
| 9 | UNC | 6 |
| 10 | Missouri | 4 |
| 11 | Georgia | 10 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 3 |
| 13 | TCU | 28 |
| 14 | MSU | 17 |
| 15 | Texas Tech | 31 |
| 16 | Utah | 46 |
| 17 | Tulsa | 56 |
| 18 | U Conn | 23 |
| 19 | Ball State | 55 |
| 20 | Minnesota | 39 |
| 21 | FSU | 49 |
| 22 | Virginia | 2 |
| 23 | Louisville | 22 |
| 24 | Cal | 18 |
| 25 | Air Force | 40 |
| 26 | CMU | 52 |
| 27 | Oregon | 50 |
| 28 | BYU | 59 |
| 29 | Maryland | 48 |
| 30 | Kansas | 19 |
| 31 | Notre Dame | 35 |
| 32 | LSU | 21 |
| 33 | WVU | 58 |
| 34 | Troy | 51 |
| 35 | WMU | 43 |
| 36 | Fresno State | 60 |
| 37 | SJSU | 45 |
| 38 | G Tech | 30 |
| 39 | Cincy | 36 |
| 40 | Nebraska | 7 |
| 41 | Miami | 13 |
| 42 | BC | 41 |
| 43 | S Florida | 44 |
| 44 | Iowa | 27 |
| 45 | Pitt | 33 |
| 46 | Kentucky | 25 |
| 47 | Navy | 24 |
| 48 | Arizona | 54 |
| 49 | Duke | 5 |
| 50 | ECU | 32 |
| 51 | NW | 47 |
| 52 | Oregon St | 16 |
| 53 | S Carolina | 14 |
| 54 | Wake Forest | 8 |
| 55 | Va Tech | 12 |
| 56 | Rice | 34 |
| 57 | Vandy | 9 |
| 58 | La-Laf | 57 |
| 59 | Houston | 42 |
| 60 | NIU | 53 |
| 61 | Ark State | 61 |
Sunday, October 26, 2008
How did I do?
Well, let's have a look at what my picks were compared with the actual scores:
Predicted: Texas Tech over Kansas, 52-42
Actual: 63-21, I guess I expected a little too much out of Kansas
Predicted: Northwestern over Indiana 31-13
Actual: 19-21, come on Wildcats, are you serious, Indiana? Break my heart. Again.
Predicted: Illinois over Wisconsin 27-9
Actual: 17-27, I even wore my Illini sweatshirt on Saturday, I guess it didn't help, or maybe I jinxed them.
Predicted: Oklahoma over Kansas State 52-17
Actual: 58-35, not too shabby of a prediction.
Predicted: Baylor over Nebraska 28-17
Actual: 20-32, why did I even pick this game, anyway?
Predicted: UCLA over Cal 24-21
Actual: 20-41, pretty close on the UCLA score, I thought the defense was supposed to be UCLA's strength? I tried to pick an upset and uckla let me down. What a disappointing season!
Predicted: Notre Dame over Washington 31-20
Actual: 33-7, 124 yards? I swear UW went to a Rose Bowl in this decade, what happened to them? Oh wait, I know that one. A coach that cheats followed by a coach that is a "real nice guy." That's AD speak for bad coach, if you didn't know.
Predicted: Michigan State over Michigan, 42-20
Actual: 35-21, as I predicted, sad time for Michigan fans, now they have to win out just to make a bowl game. That last game against Ohio State means enjoy the holidays with your family, Maize and Blue. I'd love to feel bad for you but I hate your coach and you haven't had a real good team in a real long time.
Predicted: Navy or SMU 35-28
Actual: 34-7, I guess I ought to take in to account the weather conditions. I knew they wouldn't mess up Navy (who didn't even ATTEMPT a pass) and totally slowed down SMU who had less than 18 minutes in time of possession. I don't think I have EVER seen TOP that lop-sided.
Predicted: TCU over Wyoming 38-7
Actual: 54-7, but it was 38-7 going in to the 4th, I was feeling real good about my pick, until I saw TCU bring their starters back out the first play of the 4th quarter. Why? Give the kids a rest! Plus it would make me look better in front of my [very small] fan-base.
Predicted: Missouri over Colorado 45-14
Actual: 58-0, living in Colorado, I guess I gave the Buffs too much credit. I knew their offense was bad, but ZERO points against MISSOURI? I was pretty close on the total points scored, however.
Predicted: Alabama over Tennessee 27-20
Actual: 29-9, should I send my resume out to Rocky Top?
Predicted: USC over Arizona 24-21
Actual: 17-10, excuse me, Mr. Perfect. I forgot you never, ever make a mistake. If Arizona had ANY offense that game would have gone to OT tied at 17-17, making my pick look even better.
Predicted: Tulsa over UCF 56-20
Actual: 49-19, I'm going to call that one a pretty stinking good prediction.
Predicted: Texas over OK State 45-38
Actual: 28-24, I got the winner and the number of scores dividing them right. Who knew there would be some defense played?
Predicted: Georgia over LSU 27-21
Actual: 52-38, did anybody predict 90 points scored between these two? I'll just be glad I picked LSU to lose at home, not too many people went out on that limb.
Predicted: Ohio State over Penn State 35-17
Actual: 6-13, I guess I gave the Big 10 offenses a little too much credit. Ohio State looked as predictable as ever, the difference is: Penn State, much like USC, scouted them well enough to notice. In talking with an Ohio State fan at work this week, he told me he hates the way Tressel coaches in the 4th with a lead: let's just run it 3 times, punt (or fumble as the case may be), and let our defense handle the high-pressure situation of trying to maintain a slight lead. I'll enjoy the conversation with him tomorrow morning! Really, I thought Penn State would win this game until I heard Kirk Herbstreit say this week that Penn State was going to play for the National Championship. I let my complete lack of faith in ANY of his predictions cloud my judgment. From now on, I will just avoid hearing what he says.
Predicted: BYU over UNLV 38-14
Actual: 42-35, I guess BYU left their defense in...well, definitely not in Fort Worth...where did they leave it? On the plane to Dallas, perhaps? Maybe TCU just showed the rest of the league how to beat BYU: patiently go down field 5 yards at a time, mixing in a little wildcat formation. Omar Clayton worked it to perfection most of the game, except he was a little too patient on the second-to-last play where he got sacked, forcing them into that hail mary situation.
Well, after that stellar analysis of my picks, I will let you decide how credible my claim is that I know sports. I'll get my new rankings up tomorrow. The SOS element will be applied to the rankings and it caused a little shifting.
Predicted: Texas Tech over Kansas, 52-42
Actual: 63-21, I guess I expected a little too much out of Kansas
Predicted: Northwestern over Indiana 31-13
Actual: 19-21, come on Wildcats, are you serious, Indiana? Break my heart. Again.
Predicted: Illinois over Wisconsin 27-9
Actual: 17-27, I even wore my Illini sweatshirt on Saturday, I guess it didn't help, or maybe I jinxed them.
Predicted: Oklahoma over Kansas State 52-17
Actual: 58-35, not too shabby of a prediction.
Predicted: Baylor over Nebraska 28-17
Actual: 20-32, why did I even pick this game, anyway?
Predicted: UCLA over Cal 24-21
Actual: 20-41, pretty close on the UCLA score, I thought the defense was supposed to be UCLA's strength? I tried to pick an upset and uckla let me down. What a disappointing season!
Predicted: Notre Dame over Washington 31-20
Actual: 33-7, 124 yards? I swear UW went to a Rose Bowl in this decade, what happened to them? Oh wait, I know that one. A coach that cheats followed by a coach that is a "real nice guy." That's AD speak for bad coach, if you didn't know.
Predicted: Michigan State over Michigan, 42-20
Actual: 35-21, as I predicted, sad time for Michigan fans, now they have to win out just to make a bowl game. That last game against Ohio State means enjoy the holidays with your family, Maize and Blue. I'd love to feel bad for you but I hate your coach and you haven't had a real good team in a real long time.
Predicted: Navy or SMU 35-28
Actual: 34-7, I guess I ought to take in to account the weather conditions. I knew they wouldn't mess up Navy (who didn't even ATTEMPT a pass) and totally slowed down SMU who had less than 18 minutes in time of possession. I don't think I have EVER seen TOP that lop-sided.
Predicted: TCU over Wyoming 38-7
Actual: 54-7, but it was 38-7 going in to the 4th, I was feeling real good about my pick, until I saw TCU bring their starters back out the first play of the 4th quarter. Why? Give the kids a rest! Plus it would make me look better in front of my [very small] fan-base.
Predicted: Missouri over Colorado 45-14
Actual: 58-0, living in Colorado, I guess I gave the Buffs too much credit. I knew their offense was bad, but ZERO points against MISSOURI? I was pretty close on the total points scored, however.
Predicted: Alabama over Tennessee 27-20
Actual: 29-9, should I send my resume out to Rocky Top?
Predicted: USC over Arizona 24-21
Actual: 17-10, excuse me, Mr. Perfect. I forgot you never, ever make a mistake. If Arizona had ANY offense that game would have gone to OT tied at 17-17, making my pick look even better.
Predicted: Tulsa over UCF 56-20
Actual: 49-19, I'm going to call that one a pretty stinking good prediction.
Predicted: Texas over OK State 45-38
Actual: 28-24, I got the winner and the number of scores dividing them right. Who knew there would be some defense played?
Predicted: Georgia over LSU 27-21
Actual: 52-38, did anybody predict 90 points scored between these two? I'll just be glad I picked LSU to lose at home, not too many people went out on that limb.
Predicted: Ohio State over Penn State 35-17
Actual: 6-13, I guess I gave the Big 10 offenses a little too much credit. Ohio State looked as predictable as ever, the difference is: Penn State, much like USC, scouted them well enough to notice. In talking with an Ohio State fan at work this week, he told me he hates the way Tressel coaches in the 4th with a lead: let's just run it 3 times, punt (or fumble as the case may be), and let our defense handle the high-pressure situation of trying to maintain a slight lead. I'll enjoy the conversation with him tomorrow morning! Really, I thought Penn State would win this game until I heard Kirk Herbstreit say this week that Penn State was going to play for the National Championship. I let my complete lack of faith in ANY of his predictions cloud my judgment. From now on, I will just avoid hearing what he says.
Predicted: BYU over UNLV 38-14
Actual: 42-35, I guess BYU left their defense in...well, definitely not in Fort Worth...where did they leave it? On the plane to Dallas, perhaps? Maybe TCU just showed the rest of the league how to beat BYU: patiently go down field 5 yards at a time, mixing in a little wildcat formation. Omar Clayton worked it to perfection most of the game, except he was a little too patient on the second-to-last play where he got sacked, forcing them into that hail mary situation.
Well, after that stellar analysis of my picks, I will let you decide how credible my claim is that I know sports. I'll get my new rankings up tomorrow. The SOS element will be applied to the rankings and it caused a little shifting.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Picks, picks, picks
Well, another Saturday is upon us:
Texas Tech over Kansas, 52-42
Northwestern over Indiana 31-13
Illinois over Wisconsin 27-9
Oklahoma over Kansas State 52-17
Baylor over Nebraska 28-17
UCLA over Cal 24-21
Notre Dame over Washington 31-20
Michigan State over Michigan (sad time for the Wolverines and their fans) 42-20
Navy or SMU 35-28
TCU over Wyoming 38-7
Missouri over Colorado 45-14
Alabama over Tennessee 27-20
USC over Arizona 24-21
Tulsa over UCF 56-20
Now to the big games:
Texas over OK State 45-38
Georgia over LSU 27-21
Ohio State over Penn State 35-17 (I saw all I needed to see last weekend, Ohio State's offense is clicking, Penn State gets off to a slow start)
BYU over UNLV 38-14 (we'll see how they bounce back, my guess is: I'd hate to be the Rebels, but then again, if they don't bounce back, I'd hate to be the Cougars at practice on Monday)
Texas Tech over Kansas, 52-42
Northwestern over Indiana 31-13
Illinois over Wisconsin 27-9
Oklahoma over Kansas State 52-17
Baylor over Nebraska 28-17
UCLA over Cal 24-21
Notre Dame over Washington 31-20
Michigan State over Michigan (sad time for the Wolverines and their fans) 42-20
Navy or SMU 35-28
TCU over Wyoming 38-7
Missouri over Colorado 45-14
Alabama over Tennessee 27-20
USC over Arizona 24-21
Tulsa over UCF 56-20
Now to the big games:
Texas over OK State 45-38
Georgia over LSU 27-21
Ohio State over Penn State 35-17 (I saw all I needed to see last weekend, Ohio State's offense is clicking, Penn State gets off to a slow start)
BYU over UNLV 38-14 (we'll see how they bounce back, my guess is: I'd hate to be the Rebels, but then again, if they don't bounce back, I'd hate to be the Cougars at practice on Monday)
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Mo Knows Rankings
Well, here it is, the newest rankings:
Dropped from the rankings: Duke, New Mexico State, and Stanford. 12 new teams added, 65 teams ranked this week, up from 56 last week.
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record |
| 1 | Texas | 1 | 7-0 |
| 2 | Alabama | 2 | 7-0 |
| 3 | OK State | 3 | 7-0 |
| 4 | Boise State | 4 | 6-0 |
| 5 | Florida | 5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 11 | 7-1 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 7 | 6-1 |
| 8 | Utah | 8 | 8-0 |
| 9 | BC | 28 | 5-1 |
| 10 | Tulsa | 10 | 7-0 |
| 11 | TCU | 27 | 7-1 |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 14 | 7-0 |
| 13 | Penn State | 15 | 8-0 |
| 14 | Ball State | 16 | 7-0 |
| 15 | G Tech | 18 | 5-1 |
| 16 | Arizona | 53 | 5-2 |
| 17 | Mich State | 6 | 6-2 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 19 | 5-1 |
| 19 | Georgia | 20 | 6-1 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 5-1 |
| 21 | Northwestern | 26 | 6-1 |
| 22 | Missouri | 21 | 5-2 |
| 23 | Florida State | 29 | 5-1 |
| 24 | Kansas | 17 | 5-2 |
| 25 | USC | 30 | 5-1 |
| 26 | LSU | 31 | 5-1 |
| 27 | Minnesota | 34 | 6-1 |
| 28 | S Florida | 36 | 6-1 |
| 29 | BYU | 12 | 6-1 |
| 30 | CMU | 39 | 5-2 |
| 31 | SJSU | 40 | 5-2 |
| 32 | Oregon | 41 | 5-2 |
| 33 | Maryland | 43 | 5-2 |
| 34 | WVU | 44 | 4-2 |
| 35 | Air Force | 45 | 5-2 |
| 36 | Fresno State | 47 | 4-2 |
| 37 | Va Tech | 9 | 5-2 |
| 38 | Troy | 48 | 4-2 |
| 39 | Louisville | 49 | 4-2 |
| 40 | Notre Dame | 51 | 4-2 |
| 41 | Kentucky | 52 | 5-2 |
| 42 | Vandy | 32 | 5-2 |
| 43 | WMU | 24 | 6-2 |
| 44 | Wake Forest | 22 | 4-2 |
| 45 | Cal | 13 | 4-2 |
| 46 | UNC | 25 | 5-2 |
| 47 | U Conn | 37 | 5-2 |
| 48 | Iowa | 54 | 5-3 |
| 49 | Auburn | 56 | 4-3 |
| 50 | Virginia | N/A | 4-3 |
| 51 | Colorado | N/A | 4-3 |
| 52 | La-Laf | N/A | 4-3 |
| 53 | Miami | N/A | 4-3 |
| 54 | ECU | N/A | 4-3 |
| 55 | Illinois | N/A | 4-3 |
| 56 | Nebraska | N/A | 4-3 |
| 57 | Navy | 33 | 4-3 |
| 58 | Rice | N/A | 4-3 |
| 59 | NIU | N/A | 4-3 |
| 60 | Nevada | N/A | 4-3 |
| 61 | Houston | N/A | 4-3 |
| 62 | Oregon St | N/A | 4-3 |
| 63 | S Carolina | 35 | 5-3 |
| 64 | Ark State | 42 | 4-3 |
| 65 | K State | 46 | 4-3 |
Dropped from the rankings: Duke, New Mexico State, and Stanford. 12 new teams added, 65 teams ranked this week, up from 56 last week.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Picks, picks, picks
Sorry I'm a little late with my picks today. But here they are:
South Florida over Syracuse
Northwestern over Purdue
Maryland over Wake
Georgia Tech over Clemson
Tech over A&M
CMU over WMU
Iowa over Wisconsin
Georgia over Vanderbilt
Oklahoma over Kansas
Michigan State over Ohio State
Navy over Pittsburgh
UCLA over Stanford
Penn State FINALLY over Michigan
Colorado over Kansas State
Arkansas over Kentucky
Boston College over Virginia Tech
Arizona over California
South Carolina over LSU
and I've said what I'll say about Utah and CSU: if Utah doesn't come to play, they WILL lose. Then again, they want to make their case for the new BCS buster: they win big or lose because they missed on 4th and goal from the 1, sound familiar?
South Florida over Syracuse
Northwestern over Purdue
Maryland over Wake
Georgia Tech over Clemson
Tech over A&M
CMU over WMU
Iowa over Wisconsin
Georgia over Vanderbilt
Oklahoma over Kansas
Michigan State over Ohio State
Navy over Pittsburgh
UCLA over Stanford
Penn State FINALLY over Michigan
Colorado over Kansas State
Arkansas over Kentucky
Boston College over Virginia Tech
Arizona over California
South Carolina over LSU
and I've said what I'll say about Utah and CSU: if Utah doesn't come to play, they WILL lose. Then again, they want to make their case for the new BCS buster: they win big or lose because they missed on 4th and goal from the 1, sound familiar?
Thursday, October 16, 2008
I stand corrected in a big way. I didn't think there was any way TCU could blow BYU out. I thought they could win, certainly. TCU looked that good tonight. They had that killer instinct that they lacked last year. Where were these Horned Frogs against Oklahoma? Max Hall looked that bad, constantly forcing things into coverage. It's one thing if he makes good throws after making bad reads, but he was making bad throws after making bad reads. The times he did make good throws and good decisions, it was a dropped pass as often as a completion. TCU knew exactly what BYU wanted to do and they stopped them. On offense they attacked BYU where they knew it was weak: any pass under 10 yards. I don't know where BYU goes from here, but the good news is that there is no where to go but up. The other good news is that my wife called me from Armenia during the 4th so I could turn it off and be excited about something for the first time in 2.5 hours.
I had as my big upset this weekend CSU beating Utah, but I don't see it happening now. When Utah needs or wants to make a statement, they do. I don't think Utah players had their heads in the right place, after reading quotes from coaches, players, etc. this week. But now they have a chance to prove, in their own minds at least, that they are the best team in the MWC, though how could anybody argue against TCU. They played like a team on a mission. The last two times Utah played like a team on a mission was their 3 point win over Oregon State and prior to that it was their 2 point win over Michigan. It wasn't a 25-point win over the team with the longest winning streak in the country. I don't like to compare scores but how would TCU-UCLA play out?
Anyway, I'll have to switch positions with this new information and go with South Carolina as my upset special for the weekend over LSU. Although, I still wouldn't count Utah incapable of laying an egg. It looks like sour grapes right now, but I've been saying it for a few weeks now: CSU might be that annual shoot-ourselves-in-the-foot game for the Utes.
Wow, 32-7. When I told my wife the score she said: I thought TCU would put up more of a fight. That says it all right there.
I had as my big upset this weekend CSU beating Utah, but I don't see it happening now. When Utah needs or wants to make a statement, they do. I don't think Utah players had their heads in the right place, after reading quotes from coaches, players, etc. this week. But now they have a chance to prove, in their own minds at least, that they are the best team in the MWC, though how could anybody argue against TCU. They played like a team on a mission. The last two times Utah played like a team on a mission was their 3 point win over Oregon State and prior to that it was their 2 point win over Michigan. It wasn't a 25-point win over the team with the longest winning streak in the country. I don't like to compare scores but how would TCU-UCLA play out?
Anyway, I'll have to switch positions with this new information and go with South Carolina as my upset special for the weekend over LSU. Although, I still wouldn't count Utah incapable of laying an egg. It looks like sour grapes right now, but I've been saying it for a few weeks now: CSU might be that annual shoot-ourselves-in-the-foot game for the Utes.
Wow, 32-7. When I told my wife the score she said: I thought TCU would put up more of a fight. That says it all right there.
Late night
Well, in case I don't get to give a detailed write-up why I think BYU will beat Texas Christian University tomorrow prior to the game, let me briefly say: BYU 31, TCU 10.
I think TCU certainly has a chance to win this game, but they haven't been able to come up with a big play on offense in a while now. They are turning it over with high frequency. They must clean that up.
They have been very stout against the run, and I don't discount that, being number 1 in the country in anything is impressive. However, they aren't playing a lot of teams committed to establishing the run, and when they played New Mexico they still had their starting QB, so they didn't establish the run as much as they have recently.
If BYU is not disciplined on defense, the TCU half-misdirection/half-option offense will be able to generate some big plays. I think BYU will be disciplined, however. Also, they will throw the ball ad nauseam until the run opens up, and if it never opens up, they will keep passing. If BYU doesn't turn the ball over, the points will come. If TCU doesn't turn the ball over, it's not certain that the points will come. That's why I give BYU the advantage. The only way it doesn't go their way is if they lose the turnover battle. Comparing the two teams, I'd say BYU is more likely to force turnovers and TCU is more apt to give it up as well. Again, BYU 31, TCU 10.
I think TCU certainly has a chance to win this game, but they haven't been able to come up with a big play on offense in a while now. They are turning it over with high frequency. They must clean that up.
They have been very stout against the run, and I don't discount that, being number 1 in the country in anything is impressive. However, they aren't playing a lot of teams committed to establishing the run, and when they played New Mexico they still had their starting QB, so they didn't establish the run as much as they have recently.
If BYU is not disciplined on defense, the TCU half-misdirection/half-option offense will be able to generate some big plays. I think BYU will be disciplined, however. Also, they will throw the ball ad nauseam until the run opens up, and if it never opens up, they will keep passing. If BYU doesn't turn the ball over, the points will come. If TCU doesn't turn the ball over, it's not certain that the points will come. That's why I give BYU the advantage. The only way it doesn't go their way is if they lose the turnover battle. Comparing the two teams, I'd say BYU is more likely to force turnovers and TCU is more apt to give it up as well. Again, BYU 31, TCU 10.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Thoughts after Laramie
Well, after seeing Utah in person I have come to a few conclusions:
1) Wyoming is VERY bad. They dropped easy passes. They made bad passes. They tried to fight for extra yards when they weren't there, leading to fumbles. Their special teams is poor: they can't block when they have to punt and they can't catch when their opponent punts. Their pass defense was leaving people wide open all day, but Utah couldn't take advantage.
2) Utah's pass offense is horrible. They had receivers running open all day and BJ could not hit them. I would say it was a windy day, but there were only one or two horrible passes he made that were impacted by the wind. Also, it was not windy in the first half. I was not alone, I overheard many Ute fans complaining about his inability to make good decisions and good passes. Many fans were calling for backup QB Corbin Louks. I don't blame them, while he didn't throw but one time the whole game, when he was in the game, the ball moved.
3) Utah's offense is a lot of smoke and mirrors, but mostly smoke. I could look at personnel and formation and predict the play correctly 75% of the time. If I can do that, it shouldn't be that hard for a defensive coordinator. The offense had one, maybe two, good-looking drives the entire game. On a side note, Wyoming had about the same number. Again, there were fans who expressed their displeasure in offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. I said after last year, IF Utah had a chance to go undefeated, it would depend on the firing of Ludwig and the hiring of someone else. That didn't happen. The offense is not good enough to carry them through a game or to keep them in a game where their defense doesn't play well.
4) Utah's defense is outstanding. They capitalized on nearly every Wyoming mistake. They forced Wyoming into mistakes. Their gameplan was perfect: stack the box and play man on the outside. They wanted to make Wyoming beat them through the air, and they couldn't. They didn't completely stymie the run, but part of that was the 44 carries Wyoming had. With that many rushes, they are going to break 5 or 6 of them, which they did. The defense stepped up every time it needed to, excepting the ONE touchdown pass by Wyoming.
5) Utah needs to find a punt returner who can catch the ball, or at least make good decisions. They put a couple of different guys back there and they took a lot of unnecessary risks. I was nervous with each punt, and I wasn't even cheering for the Utes. Or they could just rush 11 every time instead. That might be more effective.
I became more convinced that Utah cannot survive through the next 4 games without a loss. If Colorado State doesn't steal one this weekend, then New Mexico will November 1st. If New Mexico falls short, TCU will get them on the following Thursday. If TCU doesn't, well, I guess they will survive (and I will stand corrected) because San Diego State doesn't have a chance!
1) Wyoming is VERY bad. They dropped easy passes. They made bad passes. They tried to fight for extra yards when they weren't there, leading to fumbles. Their special teams is poor: they can't block when they have to punt and they can't catch when their opponent punts. Their pass defense was leaving people wide open all day, but Utah couldn't take advantage.
2) Utah's pass offense is horrible. They had receivers running open all day and BJ could not hit them. I would say it was a windy day, but there were only one or two horrible passes he made that were impacted by the wind. Also, it was not windy in the first half. I was not alone, I overheard many Ute fans complaining about his inability to make good decisions and good passes. Many fans were calling for backup QB Corbin Louks. I don't blame them, while he didn't throw but one time the whole game, when he was in the game, the ball moved.
3) Utah's offense is a lot of smoke and mirrors, but mostly smoke. I could look at personnel and formation and predict the play correctly 75% of the time. If I can do that, it shouldn't be that hard for a defensive coordinator. The offense had one, maybe two, good-looking drives the entire game. On a side note, Wyoming had about the same number. Again, there were fans who expressed their displeasure in offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. I said after last year, IF Utah had a chance to go undefeated, it would depend on the firing of Ludwig and the hiring of someone else. That didn't happen. The offense is not good enough to carry them through a game or to keep them in a game where their defense doesn't play well.
4) Utah's defense is outstanding. They capitalized on nearly every Wyoming mistake. They forced Wyoming into mistakes. Their gameplan was perfect: stack the box and play man on the outside. They wanted to make Wyoming beat them through the air, and they couldn't. They didn't completely stymie the run, but part of that was the 44 carries Wyoming had. With that many rushes, they are going to break 5 or 6 of them, which they did. The defense stepped up every time it needed to, excepting the ONE touchdown pass by Wyoming.
5) Utah needs to find a punt returner who can catch the ball, or at least make good decisions. They put a couple of different guys back there and they took a lot of unnecessary risks. I was nervous with each punt, and I wasn't even cheering for the Utes. Or they could just rush 11 every time instead. That might be more effective.
I became more convinced that Utah cannot survive through the next 4 games without a loss. If Colorado State doesn't steal one this weekend, then New Mexico will November 1st. If New Mexico falls short, TCU will get them on the following Thursday. If TCU doesn't, well, I guess they will survive (and I will stand corrected) because San Diego State doesn't have a chance!
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The Mo Knows Ranking System
Well, there was quite a shake-up in the ranking system, as to be expected based on the results of the games this weekend. Oklahoma dropped from 4 to 7 after losing to the former number 3, Texas. OK State and Florida made huge jumps, based on their records and on their victories over top 10 opponents. Missouri, who was the number one team last week, dropped to number 21. 5 teams jumped into the rankings this week by being victorious and becoming an above .500 team (Troy, Louisville, New Mexico State, Iowa, and Stanford), while 8 teams dropped from the rankings as losses put them at .500 (Nevada, East Carolina, Colorado State, Illinois, Clemson, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Colorado). The total number of teams ranked went from 59 to 56.
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record |
| 1 | Texas | 3 | 6-0 |
| 2 | Alabama | 2 | 6-0 |
| 3 | OK State | 20 | 6-0 |
| 4 | Boise State | 6 | 5-0 |
| 5 | Florida | 41 | 5-1 |
| 6 | MSU | 7 | 6-1 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | Utah | 9 | 7-0 |
| 9 | Va Tech | 10 | 5-1 |
| 10 | Tulsa | 11 | 6-0 |
| 11 | Ohio State | 12 | 6-1 |
| 12 | BYU | 13 | 6-0 |
| 13 | Cal | 14 | 4-1 |
| 14 | Texas Tech | 15 | 6-0 |
| 15 | Penn State | 16 | 7-0 |
| 16 | Ball State | 17 | 7-0 |
| 17 | Kansas | 21 | 5-1 |
| 18 | G Tech | 18 | 4-1 |
| 19 | Cincinnati | 22 | 5-1 |
| 20 | Georgia | 23 | 5-1 |
| 21 | Missouri | 1 | 5-1 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 24 | 4-1 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 25 | 4-1 |
| 24 | WMU | 27 | 6-1 |
| 25 | UNC | 28 | 5-1 |
| 26 | Northwestern | 19 | 5-1 |
| 27 | TCU | 30 | 6-1 |
| 28 | BC | 31 | 4-1 |
| 29 | Florida State | 32 | 4-1 |
| 30 | USC | 33 | 4-1 |
| 31 | LSU | 8 | 4-1 |
| 32 | Vandy | 5 | 5-1 |
| 33 | Navy | 34 | 4-2 |
| 34 | Minnesota | 35 | 6-1 |
| 35 | S Carolina | 36 | 5-2 |
| 36 | S Florida | 37 | 5-1 |
| 37 | U Conn | 39 | 5-1 |
| 38 | Duke | 45 | 3-2 |
| 39 | CMU | 46 | 4-2 |
| 40 | SJSU | 50 | 4-2 |
| 41 | Oregon | 53 | 5-2 |
| 42 | Arkansas State | 54 | 4-2 |
| 43 | Maryland | 55 | 4-2 |
| 44 | WVU | 56 | 4-2 |
| 45 | Air Force | 57 | 4-2 |
| 46 | K State | 58 | 4-2 |
| 47 | Fresno State | 59 | 4-2 |
| 48 | Troy | N/A | 3-2 |
| 49 | Louisville | N/A | 3-2 |
| 50 | NMSU | N/A | 3-2 |
| 51 | Notre Dame | 26 | 4-2 |
| 52 | Kentucky | 38 | 4-2 |
| 53 | Arizona | 29 | 4-2 |
| 54 | Iowa | N/A | 4-3 |
| 55 | Stanford | N/A | 4-3 |
| 56 | Auburn | 49 | 4-3 |
Friday, October 10, 2008
Picks, picks, picks
Well, I had a really bad week two weeks ago, last week was just a bad week. So I've shown steady improvement, let's see if I can do the same this week. Before I start, let me state I'll be in Laramie tomorrow for the Utah-Wyoming game. I am looking to see Utah put a complete game together. I do not expect them to be great in all facets of the game (especially since it may be blizzard-like conditions), but I do expect them to play well throughout the game. I expect to Brian Johnson limit his mistakes the first 58 minutes, so he doesn't need a heroic performance the final 2 minutes. With that said, Wyoming is not good enough to win this game. The only chance they have is that Utah gives them the game. Stranger things have happened...Now to the picks:
Utah 31, Wyoming 10
Colorado 12, Kansas 25
Vanderbilt 10, Mississippi State 13
Arizona State 9, USC 38
Tennessee 13, Georgia 27
Purdue 27, Ohio State 41
TCU 20, CSU 13
Michigan State 31, Northwestern 35
Notre Dame 27, North Carolina 28
LSU 24, Florida 27
OK State 49, Missouri 59
Penn State 23, Wisconsin 16
Boise State 27, Southern Miss 10
Tulsa 56, SMU 28
UCLA 12, Oregon 34
New Mexico 17, BYU 38
And finally:
Texas 17, Oklahoma 38: another "big" game that isn't that. Actually, I think it will be a little closer than this, but since I will miss the game I have to tell myself it won't be a good game....
Utah 31, Wyoming 10
Colorado 12, Kansas 25
Vanderbilt 10, Mississippi State 13
Arizona State 9, USC 38
Tennessee 13, Georgia 27
Purdue 27, Ohio State 41
TCU 20, CSU 13
Michigan State 31, Northwestern 35
Notre Dame 27, North Carolina 28
LSU 24, Florida 27
OK State 49, Missouri 59
Penn State 23, Wisconsin 16
Boise State 27, Southern Miss 10
Tulsa 56, SMU 28
UCLA 12, Oregon 34
New Mexico 17, BYU 38
And finally:
Texas 17, Oklahoma 38: another "big" game that isn't that. Actually, I think it will be a little closer than this, but since I will miss the game I have to tell myself it won't be a good game....
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Tweaked Ranking System
So I tweaked the ranking system presented last week. I added a Strength of Schedule element, which I will apply every 3 weeks for the remainder of the season (next season I plan on doing the same thing, adjusting the rankings after week 6, 9, 12, and pre-bowls with this SOS element). This will provide a more realistic representation of how teams ought to be ranked. As stated earlier, I will use the SOS element to adjust the rankings every 3 weeks. Because it is complicated to explain, I won't waste your time with it unless you ask me about it. Now, the Mo Knows Ranking System:
1. Missouri (previous rank 2, SOS rank 15)
2. Alabama (previous rank 11, SOS rank 7)
3. Texas (previous rank 5, SOS 26)
4. Oklahoma (previous rank 4, SOS 31)
5. Vanderbilt (previous rank 15, SOS 2)
6. Boise State (6, SOS 30)
7. Michigan State (16, SOS 9)
8. LSU (1, SOS 55)
9. Utah (8, SOS 38)
10. Virginia Tech (17, SOS 12)
11. Tulsa (7, SOS 42)
12. Ohio State (20, SOS 5)
13. BYU (3, SOS 59)
14. California (21, SOS 8)
15. Texas Tech (10, SOS 45)
16. Penn State (9, SOS 49)
17. Ball State (13, SOS 39)
18. Georgia Tech (22, SOS 13)
19. Northwestern (14, SOS 41)
20. Oklahoma State (12, SOS 52)
21. Kansas (19, SOS 34)
22. Cincinnati (25, SOS 17)
23. Georgia (30, SOS 10)
24. Wake Forest (32, SOS 6)
25. Pittsburgh (26, SOS 24)
26. Notre Dame (29, SOS 25)
27. Western Michigan (18, SOS 58)
28. North Carolina (28, SOS 29)
29. Arizona (23, SOS 47)
30. TCU (34, SOS 20)
31. Boston College (24, SOS 51)
32. Florida State (27, SOS 44)
33. USC (35, SOS 21)
34. Navy (42, SOS 14)
35. Minnesota (31, SOS 48)
36. South Carolina (41, SOS 19)
37. South Florida (36, SOS 35)
38. Kentucky (38, SOS 32)
39. Connecticut (37, SOS 36)
40. Nevada (46, SOS 16)
41. Florida (33, SOS 56)
42. East Carolina (45, SOS 23)
43. Colorado State (49, SOS 18)
44. Illinois (47, SOS 28)
45. Duke (53, SOS 11)
46. Central Michigan (39, SOS 53)
47. Clemson (43, SOS 43)
48. Wisconsin (57, SOS 3)
49. Auburn (51, SOS 22)
50. San Jose State (40, SOS 57)
51. Nebraska (59, SOS 1)
52. Colorado (58, SOS 4)
53. Oregon (52, SOS 27)
54. Arkansas State (44, SOS 54)
55. Maryland (50, SOS 37)
56. West Virginia (48, SOS 50)
57. Air Force (55, SOS 33)
58. Kansas State (56, SOS 40)
59. Fresno State (54, SOS 46)
1. Missouri (previous rank 2, SOS rank 15)
2. Alabama (previous rank 11, SOS rank 7)
3. Texas (previous rank 5, SOS 26)
4. Oklahoma (previous rank 4, SOS 31)
5. Vanderbilt (previous rank 15, SOS 2)
6. Boise State (6, SOS 30)
7. Michigan State (16, SOS 9)
8. LSU (1, SOS 55)
9. Utah (8, SOS 38)
10. Virginia Tech (17, SOS 12)
11. Tulsa (7, SOS 42)
12. Ohio State (20, SOS 5)
13. BYU (3, SOS 59)
14. California (21, SOS 8)
15. Texas Tech (10, SOS 45)
16. Penn State (9, SOS 49)
17. Ball State (13, SOS 39)
18. Georgia Tech (22, SOS 13)
19. Northwestern (14, SOS 41)
20. Oklahoma State (12, SOS 52)
21. Kansas (19, SOS 34)
22. Cincinnati (25, SOS 17)
23. Georgia (30, SOS 10)
24. Wake Forest (32, SOS 6)
25. Pittsburgh (26, SOS 24)
26. Notre Dame (29, SOS 25)
27. Western Michigan (18, SOS 58)
28. North Carolina (28, SOS 29)
29. Arizona (23, SOS 47)
30. TCU (34, SOS 20)
31. Boston College (24, SOS 51)
32. Florida State (27, SOS 44)
33. USC (35, SOS 21)
34. Navy (42, SOS 14)
35. Minnesota (31, SOS 48)
36. South Carolina (41, SOS 19)
37. South Florida (36, SOS 35)
38. Kentucky (38, SOS 32)
39. Connecticut (37, SOS 36)
40. Nevada (46, SOS 16)
41. Florida (33, SOS 56)
42. East Carolina (45, SOS 23)
43. Colorado State (49, SOS 18)
44. Illinois (47, SOS 28)
45. Duke (53, SOS 11)
46. Central Michigan (39, SOS 53)
47. Clemson (43, SOS 43)
48. Wisconsin (57, SOS 3)
49. Auburn (51, SOS 22)
50. San Jose State (40, SOS 57)
51. Nebraska (59, SOS 1)
52. Colorado (58, SOS 4)
53. Oregon (52, SOS 27)
54. Arkansas State (44, SOS 54)
55. Maryland (50, SOS 37)
56. West Virginia (48, SOS 50)
57. Air Force (55, SOS 33)
58. Kansas State (56, SOS 40)
59. Fresno State (54, SOS 46)
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
The Mo Knows Polls
Well, I know I came out with a ranking system that is completely objective, now it's time for the subjective stuff. Also, I will be tweaking my ranking system so that every 3 weeks (starting this week) a strength of schedule part gets added to it. Once I tweak that, I'll get it posted. So, for my Top Ten, not much changed. Auburn was the only team that lost, at number ten, so that opened up a spot for either USC or Florida. I went with Florida based on their beat-down of Arkansas taking place on the road. The mid-major ten had a bit more of a shake-up with Fresno State losing.
Top Ten
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Missouri
4. Alabama
5. Texas
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. BYU
9. Boise State
10. Florida
Mo's Mid-Major Top Ten
1. BYU
2. Boise State
3. Utah
4. Tulsa
5. TCU
6. Ball State
7. Navy
8. Western Michigan
9. Central Michigan
10. Nevada
Top Ten
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Missouri
4. Alabama
5. Texas
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. BYU
9. Boise State
10. Florida
Mo's Mid-Major Top Ten
1. BYU
2. Boise State
3. Utah
4. Tulsa
5. TCU
6. Ball State
7. Navy
8. Western Michigan
9. Central Michigan
10. Nevada
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Oh Cubbies, where art thou?
Another second week of October approaches. Another year of wondering why other baseball teams are still playing, and why the Cubbies are not. Last year, the answer was: they weren't good enough. This year, the answer is: they clinched too early. While the Cubs were resting their starters, other teams were fighting for their playoff lives. While North-siders were collecting rust and getting fat, Dodgers were getting hot just in time to beat the snot out of anybody in their way. While the Brew-Crew was getting ready to play the Fightin's, who only got in to the playoffs because the Mets suck, AGAIN, the Cubs were preparing to fight off a sleeping bohemoth from LA, with a Hall of Fame coach and an out-of-this-world left fielder. Oh, and one of the best pitching staffs in the league. The Cubs were punished for winning the hardest division in the National League. They had to play the Bums. They always have our number... But hey, at least we scored in every game of the sweep.
So where do the Cubs go from here? If I knew that, I'd be making a lot more money than I am right now, and I'd have season tickets to the Cubs corporate box. But hey, the pressure is off now; 100 years have come and gone, and still no title. And besides, every good Cubs fan knows: next year's our year!
So where do the Cubs go from here? If I knew that, I'd be making a lot more money than I am right now, and I'd have season tickets to the Cubs corporate box. But hey, the pressure is off now; 100 years have come and gone, and still no title. And besides, every good Cubs fan knows: next year's our year!
The New Mo Knows Ranking System
During the course of this week I developed an objective ranking system. While it still has flaws in it, it remains objective as it is entirely rule-based. The only subjective part is that I decided which rules to use. It will be a bit complicated to explain how the rules work, but it is simple to apply them, trust me, I wouldn't develop something too complicated to keep tabs on.
First, I only use teams that have better than .500 records. If a loss drops you to .500, you drop from the rankings
Second, the preseason rankings were determined as follows: I took all of the teams from last season that finished 7-6 or better and sorted them by winning percentage. Kansas and Hawaii were both on top, by virtue of their 12-1 records. Then I sorted within the winning percentage groups by teams that won their bowl games and teams that lost, placing teams that won ahead of teams that lost their bowl games. Kansas won their bowl game, getting the nod over Hawaii who lost. Then I checked for any head-to-head matchups to distinguish teams with identical records and similar bowl results. If Kansas and Hawaii had both won their bowl games, but had played during the season, the winner would be placed ahead of the loser. At that point I placed them in order of strength of conference, as determined by the final Sagarin Conference rankings from last season. Back to Hawaii and Kansas, say they were both 12-1, won their bowl games, and did not play each other. Kansas would have been ranked over Hawaii because the Big 12 was rated higher, as a conference, than the WAC. I hope that made sense.
Third, if a team wins, they can only maintain their ranking or move up, there is no moving down because Georgia's win over Georgia Southern wasn't as impressive as people wanted it to be or because Texas Tech's win over Kansas State was more impressive than BYU's win over Utah State (which it was, but that doesn't play a role here, a win is a win). You can jump a team based on rules to be explained later, but you cannot jump them if it moves them down in the rankings.
Fourth, if a team loses, they will be segregated from the rankings, all of the teams that won will move up and the loser will be placed at the bottom of the section containing teams with the same number of losses as them. For instance, South Florida lost, to go to 5-1. They are placed at the bottom of the 1-loss teams that won or had a bye that weekend. Teams that lose retain their ordering from their previous spot in the polls, i.e. if number 5, 10, and 15 all lose for the first time, they move to the bottom of the 1-loss teams, with number 5 staying ahead of 10 and 15, unless number 10 or 15 have more wins than number 5 (i.e. if number 5 loses to become 4-1 but number 10 and 15 both lost to become 5-1, they would be ranked ahead of the 4-1 loser).
Fifth, if a team wins to push them over .500, they are re-inserted into the rankings at the bottom of the rankings, placed ahead of teams that lost the same weekend, giving them the same number of losses. So West Virginia won to go to 3-2. They took their place at the bottom of the current rankings and Air Force, who lost to go to 3-2, was placed below West Virginia.
Sixth, if you win to go ahead of .500 and it is your first time to be ranked in the season, you will be placed below teams that win to go ahead of .500 who have previously been ranked during the season. If there is a tie-breaker, the previous season's record will be used to determine order of teams entering the rankings for the first time.
Seventh, starting after week 6 (so this upcoming weekend this will apply), if a team beats someone ranked in the top 10, they can jump teams ranked ahead of them, provided they have the same number of losses or only 1 less, until moving up would require rule 3 to be broken. For instance, if Kentucky (4-1 currently) were to beat undefeated Vanderbilt this weekend, they would move ahead of all 1-loss teams, and ahead of all undefeated teams until they arrived at a point where someone would have to move down. If a 2-loss team beat a top 10 team, they would move ahead of all 2-loss teams, and all 1-loss teams until moving them up would cause someone to move down in the rankings.
Eighth, starting after week 6, if a team beats a team ranked between 10 and 20, they can move ahead of all teams with the same number of losses as them. So a 1-loss team beats the 13th-ranked team, they would move ahead of all other 1-loss teams until rule 3 would have to be broken to move them up any higher. The rationale behind these last two rules is: by the 7th week teams in the top 10 and 20 have established themselves as teams capable of winning ball games. Teams are already in conference play, by a game or two or three, so if a team has managed to continue winning and stay in the top 20, they actually are a pretty good team. If this rule applied starting in week 1, Florida would have vaulted to the front of the back because they beat a very bad Hawaii team. These are the only two rules that have a strength of schedule element to them. Losing to a team in the top 20, no matter how close the game is, do not improve your ranking in any way. Anybody can lose to a top 20 team. Also, losing to an unranked team does not hurt any more than losing to a ranked team.
There are several shortcomings in this system, I realize. For instance, there is not an element to rank teams based on head-to-head matchups. If Florida and Ole Miss were to have the same record later in the season and Florida was ranked ahead of Ole Miss, there is nothing to place Ole Miss ahead of Florida. I tried to come up with a way to include this but there were too many complications with having a head-to-head element. Another issue is that an early season loss is less damaging than a late season loss. I recognize this but I also thing underlying issues might actually favor this system: a loss later in the season is probably due to playing a better team, a rival, or at least a conference opponent and so you lost. A loss earlier in the season is because your team was breaking in new starters and trying to gain experience. Now after your team has gotten experience, losing, even to a better opponent, should be more damaging to your ranking because it means you weren't as good later in the season once all of the early season mistakes were ironed out. If anyone has any suggestions for improving the system, let me know.
There are a lot of plusses to it though. For one, preseason hype can't carry you through the season. If you lose, you go to the back of the line. But doing well in consecutive seasons can help you, since being ranked higher earlier in the season means you get to stay ahead of teams with similar records to you that lose the same week you do. But if you didn't do well last season, it doesn't matter too much. If you win this season, you are rewarded for doing so, even if your program isn't viewed as a higher echelon program. It is decided on the field of play, a novel concept for college football, I know. If you win, you move up the ladder.
Clear as mud yet? Good. Without further ado:
1. LSU (4-0)
2. Missouri (5-0)
3. BYU (5-0)
4. Oklahoma (5-0)
5. Texas (5-0)
6. Boise State (4-0)
7. Tulsa (5-0)
8. Utah (6-0)
9. Penn State (6-0)
10. Texas Tech (5-0)
11. Alabama (6-0)
12. Oklahoma State (5-0)
13. Ball State (6-0)
14. Northwestern (5-0)
15. Vanderbilt (5-0)
16. Michigan State (5-1)
17. Virginia Tech (5-1)
18. Western Michigan (5-1)
19. Kansas (4-1)
20. Ohio State (5-1)
21. California (4-1)
22. Georgia Tech (4-1)
23. Arizona (4-1)
24. Boston College (4-1)
25. Cincinnati (4-1)
26. Pittsburgh (4-1)
27. Florida State (4-1)
28. North Carolina (4-1)
29. Notre Dame (4-1)
30. Georgia (4-1)
31. Minnesota (5-1)
32. Wake Forest (3-1)
33. Florida (5-1)
34. TCU (5-1)
35. USC (3-1)
36. South Florida (5-1)
37. Connecticut (5-1)
38. Kentucky (4-1)
39. Central Michigan (3-2)
40. San Jose State (3-2)
41. South Carolina (4-2)
42. Navy (4-2)
43. Clemson (3-2)
44. Arkansas State (3-2)
45. East Carolina (3-2)
46. Nevada (3-2)*
47. Illinois (3-2)*
48. West Virginia (3-2)*
49. Colorado State (3-2)*
50. Maryland (4-2)
51. Auburn (4-2)
52. Oregon (4-2)
53. Duke (3-2)
54. Fresno State (3-2)
55. Air Force (3-2)
56. Kansas State (3-2)
57. Wisconsin (3-2)
58. Colorado (3-2)
59. Nebraska (3-2)
*new entry this week
Dropped from the rankings:
32. Louisiana Tech (3-3)
51. Ole Miss (3-3)
53. Rice (3-3)
56. Stanford (3-3)
58. Marshall (3-3)
59. UNLV (3-3)
62. Iowa (3-3)
First, I only use teams that have better than .500 records. If a loss drops you to .500, you drop from the rankings
Second, the preseason rankings were determined as follows: I took all of the teams from last season that finished 7-6 or better and sorted them by winning percentage. Kansas and Hawaii were both on top, by virtue of their 12-1 records. Then I sorted within the winning percentage groups by teams that won their bowl games and teams that lost, placing teams that won ahead of teams that lost their bowl games. Kansas won their bowl game, getting the nod over Hawaii who lost. Then I checked for any head-to-head matchups to distinguish teams with identical records and similar bowl results. If Kansas and Hawaii had both won their bowl games, but had played during the season, the winner would be placed ahead of the loser. At that point I placed them in order of strength of conference, as determined by the final Sagarin Conference rankings from last season. Back to Hawaii and Kansas, say they were both 12-1, won their bowl games, and did not play each other. Kansas would have been ranked over Hawaii because the Big 12 was rated higher, as a conference, than the WAC. I hope that made sense.
Third, if a team wins, they can only maintain their ranking or move up, there is no moving down because Georgia's win over Georgia Southern wasn't as impressive as people wanted it to be or because Texas Tech's win over Kansas State was more impressive than BYU's win over Utah State (which it was, but that doesn't play a role here, a win is a win). You can jump a team based on rules to be explained later, but you cannot jump them if it moves them down in the rankings.
Fourth, if a team loses, they will be segregated from the rankings, all of the teams that won will move up and the loser will be placed at the bottom of the section containing teams with the same number of losses as them. For instance, South Florida lost, to go to 5-1. They are placed at the bottom of the 1-loss teams that won or had a bye that weekend. Teams that lose retain their ordering from their previous spot in the polls, i.e. if number 5, 10, and 15 all lose for the first time, they move to the bottom of the 1-loss teams, with number 5 staying ahead of 10 and 15, unless number 10 or 15 have more wins than number 5 (i.e. if number 5 loses to become 4-1 but number 10 and 15 both lost to become 5-1, they would be ranked ahead of the 4-1 loser).
Fifth, if a team wins to push them over .500, they are re-inserted into the rankings at the bottom of the rankings, placed ahead of teams that lost the same weekend, giving them the same number of losses. So West Virginia won to go to 3-2. They took their place at the bottom of the current rankings and Air Force, who lost to go to 3-2, was placed below West Virginia.
Sixth, if you win to go ahead of .500 and it is your first time to be ranked in the season, you will be placed below teams that win to go ahead of .500 who have previously been ranked during the season. If there is a tie-breaker, the previous season's record will be used to determine order of teams entering the rankings for the first time.
Seventh, starting after week 6 (so this upcoming weekend this will apply), if a team beats someone ranked in the top 10, they can jump teams ranked ahead of them, provided they have the same number of losses or only 1 less, until moving up would require rule 3 to be broken. For instance, if Kentucky (4-1 currently) were to beat undefeated Vanderbilt this weekend, they would move ahead of all 1-loss teams, and ahead of all undefeated teams until they arrived at a point where someone would have to move down. If a 2-loss team beat a top 10 team, they would move ahead of all 2-loss teams, and all 1-loss teams until moving them up would cause someone to move down in the rankings.
Eighth, starting after week 6, if a team beats a team ranked between 10 and 20, they can move ahead of all teams with the same number of losses as them. So a 1-loss team beats the 13th-ranked team, they would move ahead of all other 1-loss teams until rule 3 would have to be broken to move them up any higher. The rationale behind these last two rules is: by the 7th week teams in the top 10 and 20 have established themselves as teams capable of winning ball games. Teams are already in conference play, by a game or two or three, so if a team has managed to continue winning and stay in the top 20, they actually are a pretty good team. If this rule applied starting in week 1, Florida would have vaulted to the front of the back because they beat a very bad Hawaii team. These are the only two rules that have a strength of schedule element to them. Losing to a team in the top 20, no matter how close the game is, do not improve your ranking in any way. Anybody can lose to a top 20 team. Also, losing to an unranked team does not hurt any more than losing to a ranked team.
There are several shortcomings in this system, I realize. For instance, there is not an element to rank teams based on head-to-head matchups. If Florida and Ole Miss were to have the same record later in the season and Florida was ranked ahead of Ole Miss, there is nothing to place Ole Miss ahead of Florida. I tried to come up with a way to include this but there were too many complications with having a head-to-head element. Another issue is that an early season loss is less damaging than a late season loss. I recognize this but I also thing underlying issues might actually favor this system: a loss later in the season is probably due to playing a better team, a rival, or at least a conference opponent and so you lost. A loss earlier in the season is because your team was breaking in new starters and trying to gain experience. Now after your team has gotten experience, losing, even to a better opponent, should be more damaging to your ranking because it means you weren't as good later in the season once all of the early season mistakes were ironed out. If anyone has any suggestions for improving the system, let me know.
There are a lot of plusses to it though. For one, preseason hype can't carry you through the season. If you lose, you go to the back of the line. But doing well in consecutive seasons can help you, since being ranked higher earlier in the season means you get to stay ahead of teams with similar records to you that lose the same week you do. But if you didn't do well last season, it doesn't matter too much. If you win this season, you are rewarded for doing so, even if your program isn't viewed as a higher echelon program. It is decided on the field of play, a novel concept for college football, I know. If you win, you move up the ladder.
Clear as mud yet? Good. Without further ado:
1. LSU (4-0)
2. Missouri (5-0)
3. BYU (5-0)
4. Oklahoma (5-0)
5. Texas (5-0)
6. Boise State (4-0)
7. Tulsa (5-0)
8. Utah (6-0)
9. Penn State (6-0)
10. Texas Tech (5-0)
11. Alabama (6-0)
12. Oklahoma State (5-0)
13. Ball State (6-0)
14. Northwestern (5-0)
15. Vanderbilt (5-0)
16. Michigan State (5-1)
17. Virginia Tech (5-1)
18. Western Michigan (5-1)
19. Kansas (4-1)
20. Ohio State (5-1)
21. California (4-1)
22. Georgia Tech (4-1)
23. Arizona (4-1)
24. Boston College (4-1)
25. Cincinnati (4-1)
26. Pittsburgh (4-1)
27. Florida State (4-1)
28. North Carolina (4-1)
29. Notre Dame (4-1)
30. Georgia (4-1)
31. Minnesota (5-1)
32. Wake Forest (3-1)
33. Florida (5-1)
34. TCU (5-1)
35. USC (3-1)
36. South Florida (5-1)
37. Connecticut (5-1)
38. Kentucky (4-1)
39. Central Michigan (3-2)
40. San Jose State (3-2)
41. South Carolina (4-2)
42. Navy (4-2)
43. Clemson (3-2)
44. Arkansas State (3-2)
45. East Carolina (3-2)
46. Nevada (3-2)*
47. Illinois (3-2)*
48. West Virginia (3-2)*
49. Colorado State (3-2)*
50. Maryland (4-2)
51. Auburn (4-2)
52. Oregon (4-2)
53. Duke (3-2)
54. Fresno State (3-2)
55. Air Force (3-2)
56. Kansas State (3-2)
57. Wisconsin (3-2)
58. Colorado (3-2)
59. Nebraska (3-2)
*new entry this week
Dropped from the rankings:
32. Louisiana Tech (3-3)
51. Ole Miss (3-3)
53. Rice (3-3)
56. Stanford (3-3)
58. Marshall (3-3)
59. UNLV (3-3)
62. Iowa (3-3)
Saturday, October 4, 2008
"Bad" week for BCS darlings
Both Utah and BYU have been unimpressive in victories this weekend. I don't know what it was, but neither of them looked like top-15 teams. They had turnovers, gave up long drives, gave up big plays, looked anemic on offense. Utah had to score twice in the final two minutes to win. BYU had to come up with a late stop to hold USU to less than 3 scores.
However, look at the bright side too: Utah pulled out a victory against a Pac 10 team in the final minutes, it's not quite storm-the-field worthy, but still nice. BYU played 2 horrible quarters and still won by 20 on the road. There were some other positives too, but if we're talking busting the BCS, you can't play games with "some" positives. You have to be near-perfect.
Brian Johnson looked pathetic for most of the game. He appears to have a switch that he can flip with two minutes left. The problem is that on some game day this season, that will be too late. He has been responsible for a defensive touchdown two games in a row. The other problem for their offense is that all that misdirection and trickeration does not work on a disciplined defense. They rely too much on the big play and have not shown an ability to CONSISTENTLY march down the field. On defense, they have looked solid, but they, too, seem to take possessions off.
Speaking of disciplined defenses, remember BYU's defense last year. This year, they have been way below par as far as discipline is concerned; i.e. staying in lanes, holding contain, penalties, etc. BYU's offense always says: if you double-team Pitta or Collie, that leaves someone else in single coverage and we'll tear you apart. The problem is that Max Hall still tries to squeeze the ball in to that double coverage too often, rather than finding the single coverage. The last two weeks he has not looked very sharp, especially on third down. The receivers are also having an inordinate amount of drops. Michael Reed may be back next week: he will instantly improve the passing game. He is the go-to guy on third down when Pitta's double-teamed.
I know it's a long season, but they have a long way to go. This week neither one of them looked like a team that can survive the season without a loss. Hopefully next week, they'll show something different, as I'm not sure either one can afford to play like they did this week. New Mexico is always capable of putting 4 good quarters together. Playing in Laramie, after some of the rising animosity from last year, will not be an easy task, even with Wyoming looking more like a I-AA team this season. I'll be there in the Utah alum section. That should be an interesting experience...
However, look at the bright side too: Utah pulled out a victory against a Pac 10 team in the final minutes, it's not quite storm-the-field worthy, but still nice. BYU played 2 horrible quarters and still won by 20 on the road. There were some other positives too, but if we're talking busting the BCS, you can't play games with "some" positives. You have to be near-perfect.
Brian Johnson looked pathetic for most of the game. He appears to have a switch that he can flip with two minutes left. The problem is that on some game day this season, that will be too late. He has been responsible for a defensive touchdown two games in a row. The other problem for their offense is that all that misdirection and trickeration does not work on a disciplined defense. They rely too much on the big play and have not shown an ability to CONSISTENTLY march down the field. On defense, they have looked solid, but they, too, seem to take possessions off.
Speaking of disciplined defenses, remember BYU's defense last year. This year, they have been way below par as far as discipline is concerned; i.e. staying in lanes, holding contain, penalties, etc. BYU's offense always says: if you double-team Pitta or Collie, that leaves someone else in single coverage and we'll tear you apart. The problem is that Max Hall still tries to squeeze the ball in to that double coverage too often, rather than finding the single coverage. The last two weeks he has not looked very sharp, especially on third down. The receivers are also having an inordinate amount of drops. Michael Reed may be back next week: he will instantly improve the passing game. He is the go-to guy on third down when Pitta's double-teamed.
I know it's a long season, but they have a long way to go. This week neither one of them looked like a team that can survive the season without a loss. Hopefully next week, they'll show something different, as I'm not sure either one can afford to play like they did this week. New Mexico is always capable of putting 4 good quarters together. Playing in Laramie, after some of the rising animosity from last year, will not be an easy task, even with Wyoming looking more like a I-AA team this season. I'll be there in the Utah alum section. That should be an interesting experience...
Friday, October 3, 2008
Picks, picks, picks
Well, I took an ESPN commentator line last night and made two picks, with an "if" statement. I thought Utah would either blow them out or blow up in a close game. Well, Utah won, in the exact opposite way of what I said, a close game where they made plays in the final two minutes (though they didn't look like a top 15 team in doing so, as the offense disappeared for 28 of the 30 minutes in the second half, at least they pulled out the W. Then again, BYU didn't look like a top 10 team against Washington. Boise State didn't look like a top 20 team against Bowling Green. And so on, and so on. The difference is that Utah has looked that way for several periods this season. The schizophrenia continues.).
No waffling with BYU-Utah State: BYU 49, Utah State 7. No matter what happens, the final score will be a blowout.
Penn State 38, Purdue 21
Georgia Tech 34, Duke 27
UNLV 24, CSU 31
Michigan 27, Illinois 23
Air Force 20, Navy 19
Auburn 24, Vandy 10
TCU 37, SDSU 6
U Conn 27, UNC 38
Texas 24, Colorado 27
Oregon 13, USC 27
Ohio State 17, Wisconsin 31
Rice 42, Tulsa 49
Missouri 45, Nebraska 24
New Mexico 23, Wyoming 12
Hawaii 10, Fresno State 27
Any other games anyone is interested in?
No waffling with BYU-Utah State: BYU 49, Utah State 7. No matter what happens, the final score will be a blowout.
Penn State 38, Purdue 21
Georgia Tech 34, Duke 27
UNLV 24, CSU 31
Michigan 27, Illinois 23
Air Force 20, Navy 19
Auburn 24, Vandy 10
TCU 37, SDSU 6
U Conn 27, UNC 38
Texas 24, Colorado 27
Oregon 13, USC 27
Ohio State 17, Wisconsin 31
Rice 42, Tulsa 49
Missouri 45, Nebraska 24
New Mexico 23, Wyoming 12
Hawaii 10, Fresno State 27
Any other games anyone is interested in?
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Beavers vs. Utes
Well, now that another big game has arrived for Utah, we should learn something about them. Now that the first game AFTER USC has arrived for Oregon State, we should learn something about them.
Utah has had two different styles of play this season: we are for real, and cruise control. Oregon State has displayed two different offenses in their various games this season: let's set a record for most passes in a game, and let's set a record for most rushes in a game. In the biggest games of their seasons so far the results have been similar: get a lead in the first half and cling on to it in the second. Utah led at Michigan 22-10 at the half before being outscored 13-3 in the second half. Oregon State shutout USC in the first half, up 21-0 before the Trojans went on a 21-6 run in act II. They both suffer from bipolar disorder.
If Utah plays Oregon State the way it did the first half against Michigan, there are few teams in the country that could beat them, one exception being the Oregon State team that played in the first half against USC. If Oregon State plays Utah the way it did USC in the second half, very few teams would have a problem trouncing them, one exception would be the Utah team that played in the second half against Michigan. The outcome will be decided by which team showed up. Both teams have an ability to perform in the big games, but both teams also have a tendency to have a let down.
If Utah can be disciplined and stay in their lanes on defense, they could shut down the "Quizz" (oh, and actually tackling him would help too). If Utah can hold on to the ball on offense, they could march up and down the field on the Beavers' D.
If Oregon State can force Brian Johnson to make some of his patented "freshman" mistakes, their D will get some much needed rest in the altitude of Salt Lake City. If the O-line can open up a few slivers for Rodgers up the middle, they will be able to break some big plays and score some points.
My prediction: Oregon State by 4, or Utah by 24, depending on which "pole" shows up.
Utah has had two different styles of play this season: we are for real, and cruise control. Oregon State has displayed two different offenses in their various games this season: let's set a record for most passes in a game, and let's set a record for most rushes in a game. In the biggest games of their seasons so far the results have been similar: get a lead in the first half and cling on to it in the second. Utah led at Michigan 22-10 at the half before being outscored 13-3 in the second half. Oregon State shutout USC in the first half, up 21-0 before the Trojans went on a 21-6 run in act II. They both suffer from bipolar disorder.
If Utah plays Oregon State the way it did the first half against Michigan, there are few teams in the country that could beat them, one exception being the Oregon State team that played in the first half against USC. If Oregon State plays Utah the way it did USC in the second half, very few teams would have a problem trouncing them, one exception would be the Utah team that played in the second half against Michigan. The outcome will be decided by which team showed up. Both teams have an ability to perform in the big games, but both teams also have a tendency to have a let down.
If Utah can be disciplined and stay in their lanes on defense, they could shut down the "Quizz" (oh, and actually tackling him would help too). If Utah can hold on to the ball on offense, they could march up and down the field on the Beavers' D.
If Oregon State can force Brian Johnson to make some of his patented "freshman" mistakes, their D will get some much needed rest in the altitude of Salt Lake City. If the O-line can open up a few slivers for Rodgers up the middle, they will be able to break some big plays and score some points.
My prediction: Oregon State by 4, or Utah by 24, depending on which "pole" shows up.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
The Big Three
After following a couple of sites, sifting through some reader comments, I was a bit surprised to see how BYU fans, Boise State fans, and Utah fans all feel that their team is VASTLY superior to the other two. In some cases, it is flat out animosity. Each set of fans argue that THEIR team's resume is the most impressive so far. So, let's look at their resumes to this point, objectively, without red, blue, or orange goggles.
By the way, I am excited to get a chance to watch Boise State. They look pretty sharp. Kellen Moore looks smooth as silk and Ian Johnson has finally re-emerged somewhat.
Easiest game:
Each has played an FCS opponent at home. BYU played against the most challenging opponent. However, Boise State and Utah both played in-state teams, which adds to the difficulty of the game, if it can be called difficulty. Boise State's performance was the most dominant, though they did have the worst opponent. Both Boise State and BYU started the season with their FCS opponents. Utah wasted its homecoming on theirs. BSU won by 42, BYU by 24, and Utah by 16. By sheer margin of victory, BSU has to get the advantage. We'll call BYU and Utah a wash.
Road game vs. BCS opponent.
Utah gets props for opening up on the road at Michigan. Boise State gets props for beating a ranked team, who has never lost to a non-BCS opponent at home. BYU gets props for...well, they won the game, they get props for that, since it's been so long since they were able to win a game like this on the road. All three teams statistically dominated the opponent, though all three clung to victory by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin. Boise State's opponent was the toughest and the venue is arguably the most difficult to win at. The Big House may be bigger, but not many places are more intimidating than Autzen. BSU gets the advantage here too, Utah finishes second, and BYU brings up the rear.
Weaker Non-BCS team.
BYU hasn't played theirs yet, that's this Friday against Utah State, but it's tough to imagine it would be anything but a blowout. Utah dominated Utah State in a "road" game already. Boise State handled a decent Bowling Green team at home, 20-7. Bowling Green is obviously a higher quality program than Utah State, though it was at home. Utah turned the ball over 3 times against the lowly Aggies, though they did drop 58. On the face, beating BG is more impressive than a victory over USU, regardless of location or margin of victory. Again, BSU gets the advantage. We'll have to wait until Friday to name second place.
Conference game (or games in Utah's case).
Boise State's game isn't over, but, as of halftime, they have been fairly dominant against La Tech. BYU dominated Wyoming on the scoreboard and in turnover margin, though it was fairly even on how they moved the ball. BYU just managed to move the ball into the end zone on offense and defense. Utah had a rough first half against both Air Force and UNLV, and was tied with Air Force in the waning moments of the 4th quarter, despite dominating the game, line of scrimmage, stat-line, etc. Utah gave up 21 and 23 in those games. The shutout pushes this in favor of BYU. Utah gets the nod at 2, simply because UNLV and Air Force would be doing to La Tech the exact same thing that Boise State is.
Other OOC game:
BYU and Utah both have/had a Pac 10 team coming to visit them for their other OOC game. Boise State goes to Southern Mississippi. We all know how BYU handled their game against UCLA. 59-0 is impressive. After what UCLA managed against Tennessee, that looked impressive. It's lost some luster now, though. After what Oregon State did to USC, Utah definitely has an opportunity to make a statement in their game. I have a hard time believing that either Utah or BSU can make the kind of statement that BYU did. Advantage BYU. Again, we can't decide second place yet.
Ranking them in order on statistics:
Total Defense: Utah, BYU, Boise State
Scoring Defense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Total Offense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Scoring Offense: BYU, Utah, Boise State
Based on what Utah has accomplished thus far this season, I don't see how they could make the claim of being the best non-BCS team. It doesn't mean that they aren't, or couldn't be by the end of the season, it just means that they can't say, based on what has happened thus far on the field, that they are. They have an opportunity in prime time on Thursday to make the case, but, to this point, they haven't made the case, with fairly lackadaisical victories. However, sometimes you just need to find ways to win until your team gets rolling (but they've played 5 games, there shouldn't be early season mistakes still). Tomorrow can be a defining game for them.
BYU needs to beat a good team on the road, something they haven't done since Utah 2006. I think they have to do that to further establish their resume, and they will have several opportunities this season at TCU and at Utah. Their win over UCLA was awesome, even if UCLA is a bottom-feeder in the Pac 10, it's 59 to ZERO. That win may be more impressive than any that the other two have. The performance at Washington brings them down. The relatively poor offensive effort against Wyoming does as well.
Boise State doesn't exactly have an awesome resume, and it will only get worse until the end of November, but their few achievements are certainly better than Utah's and you could argue they are better than BYU's, and they just need to play a few games (tonight is only their 4th game of the season). Kellen Moore has been great but the running game needs some work.
Each team certainly has its positives. Utah is the most athletic team, hands down. BYU is the most well-coached and consistent team. Boise State is the flashiest, most exciting team to watch. All three of those things are necessary for a BCS buster.
By the way, I am excited to get a chance to watch Boise State. They look pretty sharp. Kellen Moore looks smooth as silk and Ian Johnson has finally re-emerged somewhat.
Easiest game:
Each has played an FCS opponent at home. BYU played against the most challenging opponent. However, Boise State and Utah both played in-state teams, which adds to the difficulty of the game, if it can be called difficulty. Boise State's performance was the most dominant, though they did have the worst opponent. Both Boise State and BYU started the season with their FCS opponents. Utah wasted its homecoming on theirs. BSU won by 42, BYU by 24, and Utah by 16. By sheer margin of victory, BSU has to get the advantage. We'll call BYU and Utah a wash.
Road game vs. BCS opponent.
Utah gets props for opening up on the road at Michigan. Boise State gets props for beating a ranked team, who has never lost to a non-BCS opponent at home. BYU gets props for...well, they won the game, they get props for that, since it's been so long since they were able to win a game like this on the road. All three teams statistically dominated the opponent, though all three clung to victory by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin. Boise State's opponent was the toughest and the venue is arguably the most difficult to win at. The Big House may be bigger, but not many places are more intimidating than Autzen. BSU gets the advantage here too, Utah finishes second, and BYU brings up the rear.
Weaker Non-BCS team.
BYU hasn't played theirs yet, that's this Friday against Utah State, but it's tough to imagine it would be anything but a blowout. Utah dominated Utah State in a "road" game already. Boise State handled a decent Bowling Green team at home, 20-7. Bowling Green is obviously a higher quality program than Utah State, though it was at home. Utah turned the ball over 3 times against the lowly Aggies, though they did drop 58. On the face, beating BG is more impressive than a victory over USU, regardless of location or margin of victory. Again, BSU gets the advantage. We'll have to wait until Friday to name second place.
Conference game (or games in Utah's case).
Boise State's game isn't over, but, as of halftime, they have been fairly dominant against La Tech. BYU dominated Wyoming on the scoreboard and in turnover margin, though it was fairly even on how they moved the ball. BYU just managed to move the ball into the end zone on offense and defense. Utah had a rough first half against both Air Force and UNLV, and was tied with Air Force in the waning moments of the 4th quarter, despite dominating the game, line of scrimmage, stat-line, etc. Utah gave up 21 and 23 in those games. The shutout pushes this in favor of BYU. Utah gets the nod at 2, simply because UNLV and Air Force would be doing to La Tech the exact same thing that Boise State is.
Other OOC game:
BYU and Utah both have/had a Pac 10 team coming to visit them for their other OOC game. Boise State goes to Southern Mississippi. We all know how BYU handled their game against UCLA. 59-0 is impressive. After what UCLA managed against Tennessee, that looked impressive. It's lost some luster now, though. After what Oregon State did to USC, Utah definitely has an opportunity to make a statement in their game. I have a hard time believing that either Utah or BSU can make the kind of statement that BYU did. Advantage BYU. Again, we can't decide second place yet.
Ranking them in order on statistics:
Total Defense: Utah, BYU, Boise State
Scoring Defense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Total Offense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Scoring Offense: BYU, Utah, Boise State
Based on what Utah has accomplished thus far this season, I don't see how they could make the claim of being the best non-BCS team. It doesn't mean that they aren't, or couldn't be by the end of the season, it just means that they can't say, based on what has happened thus far on the field, that they are. They have an opportunity in prime time on Thursday to make the case, but, to this point, they haven't made the case, with fairly lackadaisical victories. However, sometimes you just need to find ways to win until your team gets rolling (but they've played 5 games, there shouldn't be early season mistakes still). Tomorrow can be a defining game for them.
BYU needs to beat a good team on the road, something they haven't done since Utah 2006. I think they have to do that to further establish their resume, and they will have several opportunities this season at TCU and at Utah. Their win over UCLA was awesome, even if UCLA is a bottom-feeder in the Pac 10, it's 59 to ZERO. That win may be more impressive than any that the other two have. The performance at Washington brings them down. The relatively poor offensive effort against Wyoming does as well.
Boise State doesn't exactly have an awesome resume, and it will only get worse until the end of November, but their few achievements are certainly better than Utah's and you could argue they are better than BYU's, and they just need to play a few games (tonight is only their 4th game of the season). Kellen Moore has been great but the running game needs some work.
Each team certainly has its positives. Utah is the most athletic team, hands down. BYU is the most well-coached and consistent team. Boise State is the flashiest, most exciting team to watch. All three of those things are necessary for a BCS buster.
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