As some of you know, I put together a model to predict how teams will perform. I update it on a weekly basis once the season starts. I still have one tweak to make for the preseason, but here are the early returns for conference standings, playoff, and New Year's 6 Bowl games.
American Athletic Conference
With the addition of Navy in 2015, the AAC now has two divisions and a conference championship game. This is mostly a geographic alignment, with the exception of Navy being east of a couple of teams in the East while playing in the West. It's much better than the mess the Big Ten rolled out with a few years back.
East
1. East Carolina 7-1
2. Cincinnati 6-2
3. Temple 6-2
4. UCF 4-4
5. Connecticut 1-7
6. South Florida 0-8
West
1. Navy 8-0
2. Memphis 5-3
3. Tulsa 4-4
4. Houston 4-4
5. SMU 2-6
6. Tulane 1-7
If Navy were, in fact, to go 8-0 in conference play, they would host the conference championship game and emerge victorious over East Carolina. However, if they finish 7-1 and ECU hosts, ECU wins. As a side note/interesting fact, Navy would the first team I'm aware of to win (or play in) a conference championship game before their regular season is over. They would play Army on December 12th, one week following the AAC Title Game. I'm glad the AAC allowed this tradition of Army-Navy to continue. But it will be weird.
ACC
Atlantic
1. Florida State 7-1
2. NC State 5-3
3. Louisville 5-3
4. Clemson 3-5
5. Syracuse 3-5
6. Boston College 1-7
7. Wake Forest 0-8
Coastal
1. Georgia Tech 8-0
2. Virginia Tech 7-1
3. North Carolina 6-2
4. Duke 5-3
5. Pittsburgh 4-4
6. Miami 2-6
7. Virginia 0-8
Florida State beats Georgia Tech for the Title. At 12-1, Florida State is a likely playoff team.
Big XII
1. TCU 9-0
2. Baylor 8-1
3t. Oklahoma 5-4
3t. Oklahoma St 5-4
3t. West Virginia 5-4
6. Texas 4-5
7. Texas Tech 4-5
8. Kansas State 4-5
9. Iowa State 1-8
10. Kansas 0-9
TCU's and Baylor's non-conference schedules are pathetic. The model has both 11-0 in their matchup the last week of the season. The winner advances to the playoff. TCU is the winner according to the model.
Big Ten
East
1. Michigan 8-0
2. Ohio State 7-1
3. Michigan State 6-2
4. Penn State 5-3
5t. Indiana 1-7
5t. Maryland 1-7
5t. Rutgers 1-7
West
1. Minnesota 6-2
2. Nebraska 6-2
3. Wisconsin 6-2
4. Iowa 4-4
5. Northwestern 3-5
6. Purdue 2-6
7. Illinois 0-8
The model likes Harbaugh. They also get Sparty and Ohio State at home. Model has them beating Minnesota (who definitely benefits from coaching turnover at Nebraska and Wisconsin to win the West) handily in the title game. At 12-1, the winner of the top-heavy Big Ten East is a playoff contender. The lone projected loss for Michigan: an opening-week 1-point loss at Utah.
Conference USA
East
1. Western Kentucky 8-0
2t. Middle Tennesee 6-2
2t. Old Dominion 6-2
4. Marshall 6-2
5. Charlotte 4-4
6. FIU 2-6
7. FAU 0-8
West
1. Louisiana Tech 7-1
2. Rice 5-3
3. Southern Miss 3-5
4. UTEP 3-5
5. North Texas 2-6
6. UTSA 0-8
Western Kentucky hosts Louisiana Tech in the championship game and wins by a TD.
Independents
Notre Dame 10-2
BYU (I'll post at length later)
Army 3-9
MAC
East (due to 7-team division, no head-to-head tie-breaker for 2nd place, is for 6th)
1. Bowling Green 8-0
2t. Ohio 6-2
2t. Massachusetts 6-2
4. Akron 5-3
5. Kent State 2-6
6. Buffalo 1-7
7. Miami (OH) 1-7
West
1. Northern Illinois 8-0
2t. Ball State 4-4
2t. Toledo 4-4
2t. Western Michigan 4-4
5. Central Michigan 3-5
6. Eastern Michigan 0-8
Northern Illinois wins a close one in the title game over Bowling Green.
Mountain West
Mountain
1. Utah State 8-0
2. Boise State 7-1
3. Colorado State 6-2
4. New Mexico 4-4
5. Air Force 4-4
6. Wyoming 1-7
West
1. San Diego State 6-2
2. San Jose State 4-4
3. Nevada 3-5
4. Hawaii 3-5
5. Fresno State 2-6
6. UNLV 0-8
Utah State handles SDSU easily to win the MWC. At 12-1, lone loss at Utah, the Aggies should be the best positioned G5 for a New Year's 6 Bowl.
Pac 12
North
1. Oregon 8-1
2. Stanford 7-2
3. California 3-6
4. Washington 3-6
5. Washington State 2-7
6. Oregon State 1-8
South
1. USC 7-2
2. Utah 7-2
3. Arizona State 7-2
4. UCLA 6-3
5. Arizona 3-6
6. Colorado 0-9
Oregon beats USC but is only 11-2 after losses at Michigan State and Arizona State. That puts the Pac 12 in a precarious position. The model projects every other P5 conference champ with 0/1 loss.
SEC
West
1. Alabama 7-1
2. Ole Miss 7-1
3. LSU 6-2
4. Arkansas 4-4
5. Texas A&M 4-4
6. Auburn 1-7
7. Mississippi State 1-7
East
1. Georgia 7-1
2. Missouri 6-2
3. Tennessee 6-2
4. South Carolina 3-5
5. Vanderbilt 2-6
6. Kentucky 2-6
7. Florida 0-8
Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller. At 12-1, the SEC Champ is going to the playoff.
Sun Belt
1. Appalachian State 8-0
2t. Arkansas State 7-1
2t. Georgia Southern 7-1
4. UL-Lafayette 6-2
5. Texas State 5-3
6. New Mexico State 4-4
7. Troy 3-5
8. Georgia State 2-6
9t. ULM 1-7
9t. South Alabama 1-7
11. Idaho 0-8
Playoff pairings:
#1 TCU vs #4 Michigan
#2 Alabama vs #3 Florida State
The 8 teams playing in New Year's bowls are likely:
Georgia Tech
Baylor
Ohio State
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Utah State (automatic)
Oregon (automatic)
Ole Miss
Monday, August 17, 2015
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
BYU's 2015 Seniors
8-5. 8-5. 8-5.
BYU Sports Nation has lived through three straight years of 8-5. During BYU's off-season, if you read any quotes, watched any interviews, or followed BYU at all, you'd know the players believe a 4th consecutive season of 8-5 is not acceptable. With this year's schedule, while 8-5 may not be acceptable, it is certainly possible, some might say probable, others might even suggest it's a bit hopeful.
While understanding that with missions, red shirts, gray shirts, transfers, etc. 4 years doesn't necessarily define a senior class, I looked at the best and worst 4-year records since LaVell started coaching in 1972 to see where this year's seniors would stack up in the tradition of BYU.
LaVell's first four-year group in 1975 went 25-19-1 for a winning percentage of 56.7%. The following year's seniors went 27-18-1 (59.8%) over their careers. The next 23 groups of seniors finished with winning percentages at 63.3% or better (in a 13-game season that equates to 8.25-4.75). 17 of those groups finished over 70% for their careers (9.1-3.9 or better). 7 of them finished over 80% (10.4-2.6 or better). The post-Sarkisian seniors, finishing with LaVell's final season, had a rough go, finishing at 29-20 and 59.2%. LaVell Edwards coached 26 groups of guys from freshmen to seniors. 23 of the 26 groups averaged better than 8-5 for their careers. The first two groups and the last group didn't. However, every other group under LaVell averaged better than 8-5 for their careers.
There are very few guys who were coached by Crowton that saw 8-5 in a season, let alone as an average for their careers. So, throw the years out from 2002-2006. Crowton was a disaster.
In 2007, guys who had Bronco Mendenhall as head coach for two years graduated with a win percentage for the 4-year seniors that crept back over the 63.3% mark to 67.3%. In 2008, the 4-year win % was 74.5%, then 82.7%, 75.0%, then 73.1%. Following that, the runs of 8-5 started.
Putting this into perspective, if BYU finishes at 8-5 in 2015, the seniors would be the 2nd worst group of seniors not coached by Gary Crowton since 1977. They would be the worst group of seniors since 1977 not coached by Crowton or quarterbacked at any time by Kevin Feterek. The players have their history right: 8-5 would not be an acceptable finish, given the tradition BYU has had over the past 40 years.
If BYU finished:
8-5: 61.5%, 34th out of 41 seasons (ahead of 1975, 1976, 2000, 2002-2006)
9-4: 63.5%, tied for 31st (tied w/2013)
10-3: 65.4%, tied for 28th (w/2014)
11-2: 67.3%: tied for 27th (w/2001)
12-1: 69.2%, tied for 23rd (w/1989, 2012)
13-1 (make playoff and championship game): 69.8%, tied for 22nd (w/1988)
13-0 (undefeated but no play-off): 71.2% tied for 18th (w/1992, 1999)
14-0 (undefeated and win championship): 71.7%, 18th
This year's team would have to play in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game or make the College Football Playoff for the seniors to finish in the top half of BYU senior class careers since 1975. Doing so, however, would cement them as having probably the best single season in BYU history, even if they struggled over the course of their careers. I'm going to state that any win total of 12 or above is unlikely, meaning that in the W/L column, Independence has not been kind to this group of players.
BYU Sports Nation has lived through three straight years of 8-5. During BYU's off-season, if you read any quotes, watched any interviews, or followed BYU at all, you'd know the players believe a 4th consecutive season of 8-5 is not acceptable. With this year's schedule, while 8-5 may not be acceptable, it is certainly possible, some might say probable, others might even suggest it's a bit hopeful.
While understanding that with missions, red shirts, gray shirts, transfers, etc. 4 years doesn't necessarily define a senior class, I looked at the best and worst 4-year records since LaVell started coaching in 1972 to see where this year's seniors would stack up in the tradition of BYU.
LaVell's first four-year group in 1975 went 25-19-1 for a winning percentage of 56.7%. The following year's seniors went 27-18-1 (59.8%) over their careers. The next 23 groups of seniors finished with winning percentages at 63.3% or better (in a 13-game season that equates to 8.25-4.75). 17 of those groups finished over 70% for their careers (9.1-3.9 or better). 7 of them finished over 80% (10.4-2.6 or better). The post-Sarkisian seniors, finishing with LaVell's final season, had a rough go, finishing at 29-20 and 59.2%. LaVell Edwards coached 26 groups of guys from freshmen to seniors. 23 of the 26 groups averaged better than 8-5 for their careers. The first two groups and the last group didn't. However, every other group under LaVell averaged better than 8-5 for their careers.
There are very few guys who were coached by Crowton that saw 8-5 in a season, let alone as an average for their careers. So, throw the years out from 2002-2006. Crowton was a disaster.
In 2007, guys who had Bronco Mendenhall as head coach for two years graduated with a win percentage for the 4-year seniors that crept back over the 63.3% mark to 67.3%. In 2008, the 4-year win % was 74.5%, then 82.7%, 75.0%, then 73.1%. Following that, the runs of 8-5 started.
Putting this into perspective, if BYU finishes at 8-5 in 2015, the seniors would be the 2nd worst group of seniors not coached by Gary Crowton since 1977. They would be the worst group of seniors since 1977 not coached by Crowton or quarterbacked at any time by Kevin Feterek. The players have their history right: 8-5 would not be an acceptable finish, given the tradition BYU has had over the past 40 years.
If BYU finished:
8-5: 61.5%, 34th out of 41 seasons (ahead of 1975, 1976, 2000, 2002-2006)
9-4: 63.5%, tied for 31st (tied w/2013)
10-3: 65.4%, tied for 28th (w/2014)
11-2: 67.3%: tied for 27th (w/2001)
12-1: 69.2%, tied for 23rd (w/1989, 2012)
13-1 (make playoff and championship game): 69.8%, tied for 22nd (w/1988)
13-0 (undefeated but no play-off): 71.2% tied for 18th (w/1992, 1999)
14-0 (undefeated and win championship): 71.7%, 18th
This year's team would have to play in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game or make the College Football Playoff for the seniors to finish in the top half of BYU senior class careers since 1975. Doing so, however, would cement them as having probably the best single season in BYU history, even if they struggled over the course of their careers. I'm going to state that any win total of 12 or above is unlikely, meaning that in the W/L column, Independence has not been kind to this group of players.
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