Break

BYU is not an NCAA tournament team, no way, no how. I learned a few things about BYU tonight. They only really go 6 deep, maybe 7. MacGregor and Anderson are only good for the 10 fouls they can pick up at the 5 spot. Abouo isn't trustworthy in a tight spot, Archie is a liability on offense, and no one else on the team has seen significant minutes in any major game this season. You've got the starting 5 and Lamont Morgan. The lack of depth leads to a lot of fouls late in the game, a lot of offensive rebounds given up, and a lot of shots falling short down the stretch. Lee Cummard and JT trade off carrying the team. Tonight was Lee Cummard's turn. But even he disappeared in the second half.

They cannot win a close game. Whether it's missed free throws, jacking up ill-advised shots, the inability of anybody to put the ball on the floor and create (and turning it over when they try), or the lack of defensive stops in the final two minutes/OT (tonight it was all four), something always prevents them from pulling out close games. The only time BYU wins a close game is when they blow a big lead, but the lead was too big to overcome, so they win by 5 or 6. I've said this to a few people and still maintain that if BYU does not lead by more than 12 in the second half, they will lose the game. 12 is the magic number, watch for it, and count on it.

BYU might have some success in the NIT, and I believe they will end up there, that's where they belong this season. At the absolute best, they finish the season 8-2 down the stretch. You can count on losses at San Diego State and at UNLV. So they have to win every other game (at TCU, at Wyoming, and home games against New Mexico-who beat them by 19, and Utah) to even reach that mark. I think they go 7-3 (worst case 6-4), win a game in the conference tourney, and bow out in the second round (assuming chalk in the first round, i.e. all the favorites win), putting them at 22-9. That gets them a home game or two in the NIT. They lose either the second home game or the first road game (whatever the second game happens to be).

Bronco and Dave Rose failed to meet expectations this season. With football it was the lack of playmakers on defense. With basketball it's the lack of playmakers on offense. I don't know if it's coaching, recruiting (also a failure in coaching) or what, but the upper-classmen have not exhibited the leadership abilities a team needs to be successful. I hope this isn't a trend and it was just a bad year for BYU sports. Coming in to the season they were the only Division I team to win back-to-back conference championships in both football and basketball. They had better get back to their winning ways next year, or else they are in trouble. Their football recruiting class has only 3 DBs (2 safeties and only one corner-at 5'10"), so no help to the pass defense there. Their basketball recruiting class has one potential Lee Cummard and 3 potential James Andersons, so no help on the athleticism side there. Dark times ahead, and that's not even talking "stimulus" packages that won't actually stimulate anything until 2012 (geez, I hope we're out of the recession by then-we will be if FDR Jr. doesn't screw everything up and turn the recession into a depression). Everyone else is getting better, you better respond.

Make or Break

Tonight BYU has a make or break their season type of game. Having dropped an in-conference home game (and one at New Mexico), they have to make it up by winning games on the road. Tonight against an up-and-down Utah team, they must win. A loss tonight shows me that they are an NIT-caliber team. While a win tonight doesn't necessarily prove their NCAA tournament worth, it'd go a long way towards saying they are still a darn good team and can win on the road.
With that said, Chris Miles and Jimmer Fredette are the reasons BYU is 14-4 and not 16-2. Jimmer plays amazing in the big games, but disappears down the stretch as he defers to JT and Lee Cummard. If BYU is going to win those games against the Wake Forests and UNLVs of the world, Jimmer is going to have to do it. Chris Miles has not established himself as a viable offensive threat in the post, which is vital to BYU's success on offense. He has a decent game down low, but he hasn't demanded the ball like Plaisted did, and Araujo and Wesley before him. Miles must start scoring 12 a game, with 8 boards and 2 blocks. Jimmer must start taking shots down the stretch. BYU must win tonight and beat Wyoming on Saturday to prove they really can be an NCAA tournament team. Anything worse than 11-5 in conference (that means closing at 8-3 down the stretch), and they are an NIT team. Anything better than that and they are headed for that coveted NCAA Tournament first-round exit. At 11-5, I think they are a bubble team, probably getting in because of their "quality losses" to Wake Forest and Arizona State, and they are still the lone team to beat Utah State. As much as I hate the cliche, it really is a must-win, if BYU has a desire to go dancing. Of course, it's certainly a must-win for Utah as well, their NIT and CBI hopes depend on it.

Final Football Rankings

Sorry for the delay. Keep in mind that this ranking is not only my final ranking for the 2008 season, but also the pre-season ranking for the 2009 season. What about this do you think is wrong, what about this do you think is right? I feel fairly confident that this system had most teams about where they belonged by season's end, based on body of work, but also leaning a bit to how they played down the stretch.

Final Rank	Team	Final Record
1	Florida	12-1
2	Texas	12-1
3	Oklahoma	12-2
4	Utah	13-0
5	USC	12-1
6	TCU	11-2
7	Boise State	12-1
8	Virginia Tech	10-4
9	Florida State	9-4
10	Ohio State	10-3
11	Nebraska	9-4
12	Alabama	12-2
13	Penn State	11-2
14	Georgia	10-3
15	Oregon	10-3
16	Rice	10-3
17	Cincinnati	11-3
18	Mississippi	9-4
19	Texas Tech	11-2
20	Oregon State	9-4
21	California	9-4
22	Missouri	10-4
23	Iowa	9-4
24	Kansas	8-5
25	Tulsa	11-3
26	Rutgers	8-5
27	Wake Forest	8-5
28	West Virginia	9-4
29	Ball State	12-2
30	BYU	10-3
31	Michigan State	9-4
32	OK State	9-4
33	Northwestern	9-4
34	Western Michigan	9-4
35	Pittsburgh	9-4
36	Georgia Tech	9-4
37	LSU	8-5
38	Arizona	8-5
39	Maryland	8-5
40	Houston	8-5
41	Connecticut	8-5
42	South Florida	8-5
43	Louisiana Tech	8-5
44	Navy	8-5
45	North Carolina	8-5
46	Air Force	8-5
47	East Carolina	9-5
48	Boston College	9-5
49	Troy	8-5
50	Central Michigan	8-5
51	Kentucky	7-6
52	Vanderbilt	7-6
53	Clemson	7-6
54	Wisconsin	7-6
55	Southern Miss	7-6
56	Florida Atlantic	7-6
57	Colorado State	7-6
58	Notre Dame	7-6
59	Miami	7-6
60	South Carolina	7-6
61	Minnesota	7-6
62	Nevada	7-6
63	Buffalo	7-6
64	Fresno State	7-6

I really would like to hear your opinions on the poll. The purpose of the poll wasn't to have things right as the season went along, but to pit the two best teams in the championship game, and have teams ranked appropriately post-bowl season. I had OU-Florida in the title game (though I would have had Texas in the Big 12 title game-and therefore, probably, in the NC game had I been running things), and my top 5 has Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, and USC. Compare this to the final polls and let me know what I got right, what I got wrong, and what is too jacked up to even discuss (you might say Rice and Nebraska: Rice won final 7 games and Nebraska won 6 of their last 7, only loss: Oklahoma).

Also of note: 3 mid-majors in the top 7. I don't expect that to happen again next year! Mostly because Utah will fall out and there isn't anyone to fill their spot in the top 5. Boise State could easily go 11-1. TCU getting to 10-2 is likely, though 9-3 wouldn't be disappointing with their schedule (@Texas Tech, @BYU, unfilled slot). Utah will be lucky to get to 9 wins with everything they are losing, players and coaches. For BYU to fill the spot in the top 10, they have to win at least four of the following 5 games (including the last 3): Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU, Utah, and bowl game. That'd put them at 12-1 (or better) after the bowl season. Anyone buying the possibility of that happening?

Oh To Be a Utah Fan

What would it be like to know two games into the season just how good you're team is going to be? Third place in the MWC or BCS buster. CBI (that's the College Basketball Invitational-the tourney that teams go to that couldn't make the NIT) or the Sweet 16. Two games into the season, you already know if you're mediocre or one of the top teams in the country. This is a luxury Ute fans enjoy in the two major sports. Two games into the season, you can know just what to expect. Start 2-0 and you're golden, anything else, just wait till next year or the year after.
After they pulled one out at Michigan and overcame a POOR first half against UNLV to win, Utah fans must have known that 13-0 was a sure thing.
After that first game loss to Soutwest Baptist from Division II, Runnin' Ute basketball fans knew the Sweet 16 would have to wait. Though they may have turned it around enough for an NIT invitation, we'll see how the rest of the season plays out.

BYU fans always KNOW what to expect, they just don't want to believe it. In basketball and football, you get a top 30 team, but never a top 10 one. You get a team that almost beats a really good team, but falls just short. You get a competitor for the conference championship but failure in the post-season. There is always hope, but it never comes to fruition. A crushing defeat at TCU, a collapse against Utah, a no-show against Arizona, a last-second (or post last-second) tip-in against the Sun Devils, a tie with 1 minute to go against the Demon Deacons. Almost greatness, but, really, just solidness.

With Utah you definitely get a rollercoaster ride. You get mediocrity, followed by excellence, followed by mediocrity, then excellence. With BYU, it's only a rollercoaster if you buy into the undeserved, and never quite realized hype (mostly spread around by fellow BYU fans/columnists). You get a good team, but never a great one. Would you rather have the ups and downs of the Utah program? Or the never-quite-but-almost-ups of the BYU program? What do you say?

I say: the worst day as a Cougar is better than the worst day as a Ute. The best day as a Ute is better than the best day as a Cougar. Utah Man Am I...

...Not. Go Cougars

A Little Practice

I need to work on translating my analysis into scores. I thought it would be a defensive struggle, I thought Oklahoma would come up just a bit short (which they took a little too literally on drives in Florida territory), and I thought Tebow's scrambling/rushing ability would be the difference. Tebow avoided several rushes to complete passes on crucial plays throughout the game and you can never say enough about the jump pass. Bradford's passing ability looked a little shaky at best for the majority of the game, where Tebow's legs never failed.
I think the Coaches' Poll is a fairly accurate description of how teams ought to rank here at the end of the season. I will post my final Mo Knows Rankings (which will be my preseason rankings for next season also) either later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Sorry I'm not as on top of it as the AP and Coaches' Poll but I'm not getting paid for this (and you guys aren't paying for it) so...
I look forward to kicking into the college basketball season in the coming week and will give you some predictions for the MWC, the Big 12, and maybe a couple other predictions from around the country. Any other sports coverage you guys/gals are interested in? My plan is to focus on College Football, College Basketball, and Major League Baseball, but I can certainly tailor my posts to the demands of my readership.

The Moment We've All Been Waiting For

I know you have been waiting for this a long time: my 101st post. I feel so honored, there are so many people to thank. I'll start with my wife, for letting me write so much. I'll finish with my fans, all 6 of you have been so wonderful and kind to me.

Now to the goods:

The National Championship game begins tonight, around 8:15pm Eastern (sucks for you east-coasters). Florida. Oklahoma. Two teams that have consistently been at the top of the rankings these past few years, thanks to good coaching, good administrations, a rabid fan base, and some of the best football talent in the country. This game is a clash between the champion of the "best" conference in America most years and the champion of the best conference this year. It's a battle between the Heartland and the Deep South. It's a battle of Crimson and Orange. It's a battle between people who broke the rules to claim land in the name of the American Dream and a reptile that took Chubbs' hand.

I believe this game will come down to defense. Most people expect a shootout, first one to 50 wins. I think we're looking at a game in the mid-30's for the winner, high 20's for the loser. One, a month off can mess with the timing of any offense, even if you have a Heisman Trophy winner at QB (or last year's winner). Two, both defenses have had plenty of time to study personnel, formations, and playcalls of the opposing offense. While there are always new wrinkles added for a bowl game, the focus and base of the offense likely won't change (Utah is the only team I've seen this bowl season that completely changed offensive philosophy for their bowl game). Three, nerves always impact offensive players more than defensive players, since they are trying to carry, catch, or throw the ball where the defense just needs to be in the right place and hit the guy hard enough to put him on the ground.

They are both more on the blue collar side, though Florida does have a little flash to them as well. Oklahoma has the better offense, but Florida has the better defense. So what truly wins championships: offense or defense? We will find out tonight. As for me and my house (or probably just me), I think that Oklahoma comes up a little short. It is a BCS game, I'd expect nothing less from the Sooners. I think in this game, Tebow's ability to run will prove more valuable than Bradford's ability to pass.

Gators are National Champs again (unfortunately), 34-28.

Go Sooners! On a side note: I hope Bradford goes pro so BYU doesn't have to face him in Dallas next September!

Clarification

I have been hammered for my statement that Utah doesn't deserve a National Championship. Let me clarify my position on this:

Under the current system, unless the AP decides to go Utah's way in the poll, Utah has no claim on the National Championship. Should they win it? I don't think so. Should they be given the opportunity to play for a chance at it? Absolutely. Does the current system stink? Absolutely. If you want to argue that the system stinks, great, I'm with you. If you want to argue that Utah should be given the NC under the current system, I'm very much against you. As much as you hate it, Utah did not play in the National Championship game. They didn't even beat the number 3 team to claim they were the best of the two teams not in the championship game.

Under the previous system, Utah would have probably played Arizona in the Vegas Bowl, or maybe gotten lucky and played Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. So we've come part of the way. Utah, in 2008, can be in the discussion as one of the best teams in the country. Can we get the rest of the way? I don't know how that can happen: tell me, what solution makes sense AND can be sold to the powers that be. There are plenty of ideas that make sense, not very many that the powers that be like, and none that do both.

I had planned on sharing my solution, which makes sense, but it is not very sellable, so I will hold off on that until I can develop a better solution. Briefly, it would have been this: drop the 40 worst programs, make 8 10-team conferences with the remainder (entirely based on geography, but attempting to keep the conferences somewhat even). Every conference sends its top two teams to the 16-team playoff. I might also have added an element where the worst team in each conference is replaced by one of the 8 best I-AA teams each year. The idea never fully took flight. Anyway, no one would really buy into it: especially Washington State.

National Championship?

I knew Nick Saban could lose. He has done it quite a few times before, but I've never seen it happen like it did last night: his team got out-coached for 75% of the game. The only time Alabama moved the ball on Utah was when Gary Anderson got away from the game plan and went a little conservative. The only time Alabama stopped Utah from moving the ball was when the Utes got away from their game plan (it happens the 2nd and 3rd quarter every game). Alabama's success had nothing to do with Alabama and everything to do with Utah.
For all of you BYU fans that thought cheering for Utah was the right thing to do: you got what you asked for. Now, BYU has about two more years where they can expect to compete with Utah, and if they don't capitalize on the "respect" Utah got for the Mountain West, they are finished. If BYU doesn't do something worthwhile the next two years (before Utah's "Sugar Bowl recruits" become juniors and then seniors), the MWC will go from a 3-horse race to a head-to-head battle between the two teams that have proven on the national stage they've got "it."
Now props to Utah for going out with something to prove and proving it with flying colors. But I'm sorry, you DO NOT deserve a national championship. Have you watched film of yourself? This isn't the 2004 Utes, who really did deserve a shot. They absolutely dominated everyone they played. This year, the Utes had to eke out wins against two teams that didn't even go to bowl games (Michigan by 2, New Mexico by 3). They needed a brain fart by Oregon State in the final 4 minutes to have a chance to win (and them going for two twice and missing it). They needed two missed chip-shot field goals by TCU. They needed 5 interceptions and a fumble by Max Hall. They needed Alabama to never realize over 4 quarters that their SEC OLB cannot cover a MWC WR. This was a great team that got some great bounces (some due to great coaching by themselves, some due to bad coaching by others, and others just lucky bounces on fumbled punt returns), not an amazing team that could not be stopped.
If we had a playoff, they could prove me right and prove themselves wrong. But we don't, so it's all conjecture. They can believe they deserve it all they want. I can believe Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC would all wipe the floor with them. It does bring the MWC a little closer to an automatic BCS berth, but that doesn't bring them any closer to national title consideration. It just means that the MWC gets the lesser of the ACC and Big East champions in Miami. Yeah for an automatic Orange Bowl trip to play someone who doesn't belong in the BCS.
Congrats to Utah, but don't be stupid with National Championship talk. I know it's hard to not act stupid when K-Whit is your leader, but take a lesson from your [now-former] defensive coordinator Gary Anderson: be disciplined, play hard, stay classy, and be smart.
It will be interesting to see how the Utes do next year: two new coordinators and a mostly new offensive starting lineup. Who knows if anybody might leave early from the defense, but I'd be surprised if one or two of the non-seniors didn't test the waters. Heather Dinich of ESPN seems to think they'll start in the top 15, do any Ute fans agree? Or anybody agree? They could start there, I doubt it, but they could, but I don't think in a Ute fan's wildest dreams, they think they can finish there with Louks running the show on offense and without Gary Anderson calling the plays on defense.

The Big One for Mid-Majors

Well, it's time to find out how good Utah really is. Or if Alabama will still be motivated, even though it's not the National Championship game.
I think both teams are actually a little overrated, with Utah being the more overrated of the two. Alabama benefited from an easy non-conference schedule, a fairly weak SEC West, and from getting a relatively light SEC East slate. To win at LSU and at Georgia is no small feat, and certainly doing both in one season is something to be applauded, but, let's be honest, the SEC this year wasn't the SEC of years past. Alabama is a year ahead of schedule, so a win here vaults them in to next year as a very legitimite national title contender.
Utah, on the other hand, had a decent non-conference slate and the conference was better than it ever has been. They struggled mightily to move the ball against the better of the defenses they played. They got outgained by Wyoming, outplayed by TCU and Oregon State, and nearly outmanned by Michigan in the second half. BUT...they found a way to win every game this season, where Alabama did not. That takes moxey (and King Louie). Utah is right on schedule, a win here completes the dream season, and prepares them for two/three decent seasons and then to make another run in 4 years with a stellar BCS-game recruiting class.
I think Alabama is strong where Utah is weak. Utah is strong where Alabama is weak. I think the speed of Utah keeps them in the game, but the muscle of Alabama ultimately gives them the victory. Yes, that's what I said, the Mountain West team's team speed will give them a chance against a soon-to-be SEC powerhouse. I don't think either team wants to get in a shoot-out, but that would benefit Utah because of their more wide-open attack. However, I'm not sure Utah can get in a grind it out type of game and expect to win: unless it's within 8 points in the final 2 minutes, and then Alabama can kiss the game good bye!
Anyway, I think the Tide rolls tonight: Alabama 27, Utah 17.