Mo's Model vs. Coach's Poll

There are a few major differences between my model of rating teams and the Coaches Poll.  There are 53 teams that received at least one vote in the preseason poll.  There are 18 teams rated at least 5 spots higher in the polls than my model does.  There are 11 teams rated at least 5 spots lower by the coaches than I do.  I agree with the coaches about Bama #1 and Ohio State #2.  After that, there are no two teams that are ranked exactly the same.

My top 10 (Coaches Poll):
Alabama (1)
Ohio State (2)
Georgia (5)
Texas (15)
Stanford (4)
Oregon (3)
Ole Miss (33)
Nebraska (18)
Notre Dame (11)
Florida State (12)

The teams that I believe will have better seasons than coaches Texas, Ole Miss, Nebraska.  The coaches ranked the following teams in the top 10 that I did not (where I have them ranked in parentheses): #6 A&M (29), #7 South Carolina (30), #8 Clemson (17), #9 Louisville (22), #10 Florida (18).

Other teams that the coaches rank significantly higher than I do: Michigan (17 vs. 44), UCLA (21 vs. 42), Northwestern (22 vs. 54, though I admit my model has a tough time with service academies, NW, BYU, Boise State, and Vanderbilt), Baylor (29 vs. 57), Vanderbilt (34 vs. 51), North Carolina (37 vs. 52), Tulsa (39 vs. 65), San Jose State (40 vs. 70), Kent State (46 vs. 55), and Arkansas State (53 vs. 76).

Teams that I rank significantly higher than the coaches: Miami (27 vs. 12), Northern Illinois (38 vs. 26), East Carolina (44 vs. 25), and Tennessee (49 vs. 35).

So, it appears, that the major differences revolve around ACC, SEC, and non-BCS.  I think that means that my model did what I wanted it to do: quantify my gut.  My gut says SEC defenses are very good, but aided by the fact that they never play good QBs, and when they do, the QBs dominate the league (see Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Johnny Manziel).  So naturally, I would think the coaches tend to overrate the SEC.  The ACC always seems to get lots of preseason publicity, but with just 2 BCS wins in 12 years...yeah, they don't seem to have what it takes.  Non-BCS teams have to win 11 games to get any chance of a top 25 appearance, regardless of schedule and have to win 1 games to have any chance of a BCS game.

Anyway, it should be interesting to see who is closer.  I know one thing: the coaches are always wrong in the preseason...I have yet to be proven wrong with this model...haha.  Let year one begin.