Dominoes Continue to Fall

If you can't beat them on the field, ask them to join you (and offer them more money).  TCU joining the Big East is the latest, and perhaps last for a while, domino to fall in conference expansion.  It follows the plan that I had set out earlier this year: add a few non-BCS teams to BCS conferences instead of adding a new BCS conference.  When the BCS announced the automatic qualifying formula in May, it became clear that the MWC was ahead of the Big East, and may have even passed the ACC.  So the Pac 10 takes Utah.  The MWC counters by adding Boise State.  ESPN helps BYU on the path to independence.  The Big East takes TCU.  The MWC is now a shell of its former self.

It will be a better conference for Boise State than the WAC was.  However, it is nowhere near a BCS conference.  Take the top 3 programs out: BYU, TCU, and Utah.  Add 3 other programs: Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada.  The top 3 is definitely weaker.  The top 3 now is: Boise State, Air Force, and either SDSU, Nevada, or Fresno State, depending on who is having the better year.  That is nowhere near as good as the "Big 3."  The WAC middle and bottom was far worse than the MWC ever was, so any comparisons between the two are made by ill-informed, generalistic (BCS) homers.  Even this weakened MWC is a big improvement over the WAC that Boise State dominated over the past 5 years.  I will show an actual comparison later this week, or after the regular season ends before the bowls begin to highlight the difference.

I think it is now even more likely that the MWC reaches out to Hawaii.  That would make the league very balanced, with 6 programs that are all in good places right now, and 4 that have had struggles recently, though 3 of the 4 have had their moments in the past 5 years as well (UNLV being the lone team that has been consistently horrendous.  CSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming may be in bad spots right now, but they have the potential to rise above the bottom).  Advancing to a 12-team league is now no longer a possibility.  Even if Utah State was an attractive option to try to remain in the Utah market, it would be tough to talk Houston out of Conference USA, and I don't see any other viable options.

The funny thing is: the MWC and the Big East are almost twins in football now.  First off, there is a huge geographic distance between the schools (Fort Worth to Connecticut vs. Hawaii to Laramie).  There is one program clearly at the top (TCU for the Big East and Boise State for the MWC), a bunch of programs in the middle, and 3 or 4 programs that rotate between poor and mostly mediocre.  Maybe the MWC is a BCS conference after all...