With the announcement this past week of Ian Harward's career ending due to injury, BYU is right back where it was at the beginning of 2012-2013: short on bodies. Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra are graduating. Craig Cusick and Brock Zylstra can be replaced in part by the additions of semi-experienced players in return missionary Kyle Collinsworth and JC transfer Skyler Halford. The Davies loss leaves a massive hole that BYU hopes can be filled by a few incoming freshmen.
Nate Austin is a bench player, plain and simple. He was only a sophomore this season, but he's had a lot of playing time over his two years and doesn't have what it takes to start, play without foul trouble, and score points. So, can Eric Mika do it? Even if he can, how will BYU fill both the 4 and 5 positions? Josh Sharp, Nate Austin, Agustin Ambrosino, Luke Worthington? I look at that list and think it means that BYU will have no inside scoring if Mika doesn't average 10+ per game. Ambrosino can score from the outside. Sharp can make open dunks. Austin can occasionally hit mid-range jumpers. But BYU is most effective when they can throw the ball into a believable scorer inside, drawing doubles, and kicking it out to shooters. If any of those three get the ball inside, there is no double-team coming. Mika needs to do what Plaisted did as a freshman to have the kind of impact BYU needs.
Now, in next year's WCC, BYU could survive with a smaller lineup, perhaps with Collinsworth at the 4 and a combination of Mika and Austin at the 5. There are no dominant PF's that Kyle couldn't stay with. The list of decent centers in the league basically starts and ends with St. Mary's Waldo (and decent is about as strong of an adjective as I'd use with him). It's possible that BYU could make that work defensively. I just don't see how that works on the offensive side of the ball.
Additionally, being set up to be successful in WCC play doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to non-conference or tournament play. With the 2013-14 schedule not yet out, I'd say BYU has a lot to work on before November. It looks like another bubble team next year. Is there relief in sight? Hopefully. The roster will be full of experienced seniors in 2014-2015 and soon-to-be high school senior TJ Haws is ridiculous...if he postpones going on a mission! They'll still need to get the 4/5 position figured out!
Sorry, Cougar fans, I think next year's team will only be marginally less frustrating to watch than this year's team.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
After 2013: Future Expansion?
I know it's been discussed a lot in a lot of different circles, but I thought I'd summarize the opinions out there as well as provide my own insight. Question: will there be more expansion? Let's look at the major conferences.
[I don't really consider shuffling in the non-BCS leagues to really be expansion, to me that is more about consolidation. The WAC folded because there was one too many conferences. 10 is the right number. There may be jockeying for position, but ultimately, MWC, American, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt is the pecking order there.]
The SEC is at 14 teams. Realistically speaking, no team would ever leave the SEC. Their only expansion options would be ACC, from which no team will leave based on their loss of media rights and stiff exit penalty, the Big Ten, where the only real targets are unlikely to leave (Ohio State and Michigan), and the Big 12. If they could get Texas and Oklahoma, they would. Short of that, it is difficult to see any good expansion options for the SEC.
The ACC is at 14 teams. They got what they could out of the Big East. They made it virtually impossible for any team to leave the conference. I think they will stick at 14, because there is nowhere for them to expand as the last of the BCS conferences in terms of pecking order.
The Big Ten moves to 14 teams next season. Beyond that, there is nothing less to take from the former Big East and the SEC and ACC are off limits. Again, that leaves the Big 12 as the only realistic possiblity.
The Pac 12 is at 12, stuck two members behind the other three major expanders. However, geographically and philosophically, there are few options short of Texas available to them. Unless the city/market of Boise grows astronomically and the institution gets a major move toward liberal elitism, Boise State is out.
The Big 12 seems to be the key to any future expansion. It seems other conferences can only grow by stealing teams from the Big 12. The Big 12 cannot poach from any other major conference. They are basically left looking at all the ugly girls at the dance and deciding if there are any two that got overlooked by the others. The answer for them is probably not.
For all intents and purposes, BYU, Louisville, and Cincinnati are BCS conference teams. Based on fan base, money, facilities, wins, they are equal to many and better than quite a few that belong to BCS conferences. However, it takes two to tango. The Big 12 has to feel like two of these three teams are worth getting. BYU has long been in big fish in a little pond and it is unknown how they would respond being thrown into a big pond. Louisville and Cincy were relatively recent additions to the Big East, so none are 100% BCS, tried and true.
My guess is IF there were to be any future expansion, it would be the Big 12 adding BYU and Louisville. However, I don't know that the Big 12 will do this unless absolutely forced to. They have a very good, very competitive league in football and basketball. They generate plenty of money per team. I don't see the reasoning behind expansion for them in the near-future. In 3-4 years, a lot can change as Louisville reaps the benefits of multi-sport success. BYU is adding to its coffers as well. They could both become unequivocally "BCS" (whatever that means these days).
[I don't really consider shuffling in the non-BCS leagues to really be expansion, to me that is more about consolidation. The WAC folded because there was one too many conferences. 10 is the right number. There may be jockeying for position, but ultimately, MWC, American, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt is the pecking order there.]
The SEC is at 14 teams. Realistically speaking, no team would ever leave the SEC. Their only expansion options would be ACC, from which no team will leave based on their loss of media rights and stiff exit penalty, the Big Ten, where the only real targets are unlikely to leave (Ohio State and Michigan), and the Big 12. If they could get Texas and Oklahoma, they would. Short of that, it is difficult to see any good expansion options for the SEC.
The ACC is at 14 teams. They got what they could out of the Big East. They made it virtually impossible for any team to leave the conference. I think they will stick at 14, because there is nowhere for them to expand as the last of the BCS conferences in terms of pecking order.
The Big Ten moves to 14 teams next season. Beyond that, there is nothing less to take from the former Big East and the SEC and ACC are off limits. Again, that leaves the Big 12 as the only realistic possiblity.
The Pac 12 is at 12, stuck two members behind the other three major expanders. However, geographically and philosophically, there are few options short of Texas available to them. Unless the city/market of Boise grows astronomically and the institution gets a major move toward liberal elitism, Boise State is out.
The Big 12 seems to be the key to any future expansion. It seems other conferences can only grow by stealing teams from the Big 12. The Big 12 cannot poach from any other major conference. They are basically left looking at all the ugly girls at the dance and deciding if there are any two that got overlooked by the others. The answer for them is probably not.
For all intents and purposes, BYU, Louisville, and Cincinnati are BCS conference teams. Based on fan base, money, facilities, wins, they are equal to many and better than quite a few that belong to BCS conferences. However, it takes two to tango. The Big 12 has to feel like two of these three teams are worth getting. BYU has long been in big fish in a little pond and it is unknown how they would respond being thrown into a big pond. Louisville and Cincy were relatively recent additions to the Big East, so none are 100% BCS, tried and true.
My guess is IF there were to be any future expansion, it would be the Big 12 adding BYU and Louisville. However, I don't know that the Big 12 will do this unless absolutely forced to. They have a very good, very competitive league in football and basketball. They generate plenty of money per team. I don't see the reasoning behind expansion for them in the near-future. In 3-4 years, a lot can change as Louisville reaps the benefits of multi-sport success. BYU is adding to its coffers as well. They could both become unequivocally "BCS" (whatever that means these days).
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