BYU O vs. CSU D
The Colorado State defense has been quite porous this season, in most games. They held UNLV to 10, and Colorado and SDSU to 24. Everyone else put up at least 27 points against them. They are giving up 188 rushing yards/game, 220 passing yards/game, and 32 points/game. But they have been more solid at home, holding TCU to 27 points (20 points less than Utah's D was able to hold them) and then doing enough to beat Idaho.
BYU played very well offensively last week against a team with a very similar defense, statistically, to CSU's. However, that was at home. On the road, BYU is scoring less than 11 points/game. To be fair, 3 of their 4 road opponents have been ranked at some point this season, but 11 points/game is still barely more than a TD and a field goal per game. This will be a good measuring stick for how far this offense has come in the past 3 weeks. Last week they were able to throw for 300 and rush for 200. They will probably need to find a way to get about 200 and 150 this week. The first quarter will be crucial: they need to get off to a fast start to keep the confidence/momentum going from last week. Given the frigid conditions expected, and BYU's struggles to catch the ball in ideal weather conditions, BYU will need a big day from its running backs to help the offense do enough to win on the road. Quezada showed his explosiveness last week. Between the Juice and DiLuigi, they'll need a couple of 20+ yard runs to get the team going and squeeze the life out the Rams, squashing all hope that they have a chance of getting a win against BYU this season.
BYU D vs. CSU O
For a team with a true freshman QB, CSU sure likes to sling the ball around. Pete Thomas is averaging roughly 32 pass attempts per game and shows no fear throwing it like that. That will test a BYU secondary that is solid, but not spectacular. Pete Thomas must be accurate and protect the football: BYU DBs are usually in position, and if a QB makes an accurate throw, he completes it, any inaccuracy at all, BYU will break it up/pick it off. CSU's rushing attack has been very hit or miss. Leonard Mason is about as up and down as a player can get. If BYU can hold him down, which lesser defenses have been successful doing, it would be tough to imagine a freshman QB, even one as good as Pete Thomas, having a good enough day to consistently move the ball down the field and into the end zone.
BYU's Defense continues to improve under Bronco Mendenhall. TCU is the only team to gain over 300 yards on them. SDSU also got over 200. Wyoming and UNLV have both been under that. UNLV didn't even get 150 yards. I realize the competition level has been dropping, but CSU isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. BYU has been effective the past 4 games at playing behind the line of scrimmage. If they can make 8 or 9 plays in the backfield as they have been doing under Bronco's D-Coordinator-ship, drives will stall. I think 225 yards and no more than 3 scores is a realistic goal to shoot for.
Prediction
While I don't think it will be an easy game for BYU, I fully anticipate a comfortable win, with a few anxious moments. BYU will not likely be able to put up the 55 points it did last week, scoring on 9 possessions. But it is not out of the realm of possibilities to expect 4-6 scores out of BYU, even in the expected cold temperatures and potentially snowy conditions. CSU might move the ball, but may have some trouble punching it into the end zone against this resurgent front 7 on the BYU defense. And the Rams do not have a very good kicker either. BYU pulls out a road win for the first (and perhaps only) time this season. BYU 31, CSU 13.
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