Well, finding a way to win at the Marriott Center is difficult, and New Mexico found a way. They were aided by several key plays down the stretch. An offensive rebound that led to an easy putback, a block on BYU's game-tying layup with 2 seconds left, and a tip on the final desperation attempt by BYU with .6 seconds left.
Despite the season sweep, I am still not convinced this Lobo team is better than BYU. I am not just being a homer. Here is my reasoning. BYU played like crap at the Pit. Jimmer was the only one capable of doing anything remotely positive that game, and he only shot 40%. Still, New Mexico needed a few lucky breaks and some solid free throw shooting at the end to come out with a 4-point win. Then, at the Marriott Center, BYU had 3 wide open looks from 3 in the last minute. If they make any one of the 3, they might just have won. They were that close to winning despite playing the entire second half without the services of future second team All-American Jimmer Fredette. If they meet in the conference finals, I do anticipate BYU finding a way to win.
With the win, the Lobos clinch at least a share of the conference championship, and do clinch the number 1 seed in the MWC tournament. I also believe that with the win, Darington Hopson will be the conference player of the year. Why? When BYU wins the conference, they do not get the player of the year, even when they clearly have the player of the year on their team. When they don't win the conference, they certainly won't get it.
I think the loss, while it obviously hurts BYU, has three positive aspects to it. You gotta see the bright side, right? One, they will play UNLV in the second round of the tournament instead of the finals. Nobody can beat UNLV in the Finals. The only chance to knock them off is in the opening round or in the semis. I'm not saying they will beat them in the semis, but the odds are greater there. Two, this puts a 3-seed in the NCAAs as an impossibility. Why is that good, you might ask? Well, if they were a 3-seed in the tourney, they would, in all likelihood, be shipped off to the East Regional played in Syracuse where they have zero chance of any home court advantage. There are some too-long-to-discuss-here bracketing rules that would likely send any 3-seed from the West (BYU, New Mexico, or Gonzaga) to the East (or South in the case of New Mexico) Regional and whatever Big East team ends up with a 3-seed would come to the West Regional. However, as a 4-seed, they will most likely get placed in the West Regional (played in Salt Lake City) and get a San Jose pod in the opening rounds. That gives them a homecourt advantage for as long as they stay in the tournament. Three, talk about a confidence builder for some of the role players. Tyler Haws, Noah Hartsock, and Michael Loyd all had great games, which will help them out in the MWC and NCAA tournaments. They all needed a chance to realize they can play with the best teams in the nation.
Obvious the loss hurts, and you can point to a number of things that caused it. Jimmer not playing, 5 straight empty possessions to end the game, the inability to get defensive rebounds, and 3 of the 4 questionable calls down the stretch went the way of the Lobos (very similar to the game at the Pit). Most BYU fans will blame the calls, or Jimmer not playing. When it comes down to it though, New Mexico made shots and BYU did not. End of story.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Recap and Preview
So BYU just wore SDSU out. You could see Billy White on several occasions dogging it up the floor, calling for a sub, settling for a jump shot, or just committing a lazy foul. Malcolm Thomas committed 3 fouls in the second half in VERY FEW minutes actually played because he was a step slow. Kawhi Leonard was slightly under the weather and BYU just ran him out of the gym, so much so that he only saw 24 minutes of action (he averages 31 minutes/game, i.e. a 23% reduction in minutes). BYU made a run late in the first half and then 5 minutes into the second half they just took over the game and dominated the final 15. It was a great strategy, and it helped that Kawhi Leonard was ill. However, BYU was going to win that game whether Kawhi Leonard was healthy or not. The fact is: SDSU is not deep enough to win against a good team at altitude. The MWC Tourney will probably be similar: they aren't deep enough to beat CSU/Utah, then BYU/New Mexico, then UNLV in 3 consecutive days. Unfortunately for them, anything short of winning the tourney probably puts them on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating CSU, then Air Force, then CSU or Utah, followed by a split against 2 of the top 3...they are out of the tournament. They can make a nice run in the NIT, however, especially with home court advantage the first 2 or 3 games.
BYU is really clicking right now in a lot of areas. Davies had a strong showing on Wednesday. Tavernari is dangerous, though his shot selection was a bit sketchy against SDSU. Haws just needs a SHOT to fall that isn't a layup or a free throw. Jimmer is playing well and distributing the ball very well. Miles had some nice plays and has been rebounding the ball very well lately. Jackson Emery has been playing suffocating D, and with his 3-point shot falling, he is going to score, either on the 3, or with a shot fake and easy drive towards the hoop.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is limping in to the game, as much as a team on a 12-game winning streak can be limping. The last 4 games have been against 4 of the 5 worst teams in the conference, with 2 of those games played at home. They have needed overtime to win by 3, a late flurry (and non-foul call on an obvious fall) at home to win by 3, and a bunch of made free throws in the final 2 minutes to win by 6. They are not dominating the lesser competition like they should be. Compare their last two games against to how BYU handled the same competition a week earlier: Air Force (home) a 3-point win and CSU (road) and a 6-point win. BYU: a 43-point win and a 22-point win. I know you can't compare common opponents and determine the winner of a game, but still, that is a monstrous difference in margin of victory, i.e. quality of play against the same competition in the same week.
Of course, throw all of that out going into tomorrow. Who has the better team? Who has the better game plan? Who executes better? Undecided. Undecided. Undecided, though BYU has been executing better of late, as shown in the preceding paragraph. My answers are: BYU, BYU, and BYU. New Mexico has turned it around on the road this season, playing better on the road than they ever have in the history of their program. But in the last decade, they haven't won a single time in the Marriott Center. And they haven't even come close to winning: only one of those games was decided by single digits (9 years ago). Keep in mind, one of those years BYU went 9-21!
BYU 82, New Mexico 71. Anti-climatic for all of the build-up this game has been getting nationally.
UNLV-Air Force: 70-52 for the Rebels.
Wyoming-Utah: 65-57 for Utah. Getting hot just in time to try to steal 5th place away from CSU. Wyoming likes to push tempo. Boylen likes to grind it to a halt. 65 is a relative offensive explosion for Utah and means the game was played too fast for Boylen's liking (and too slow for a lot of his players' liking...).
CSU-TCU: 64-56 to CSU. Big road win needed to stay on track with Utah. Setting up a showdown for 5th place the last game of the season. Loser of that game has to play UNLV in the first round of the UNLV Invitational.
BYU is really clicking right now in a lot of areas. Davies had a strong showing on Wednesday. Tavernari is dangerous, though his shot selection was a bit sketchy against SDSU. Haws just needs a SHOT to fall that isn't a layup or a free throw. Jimmer is playing well and distributing the ball very well. Miles had some nice plays and has been rebounding the ball very well lately. Jackson Emery has been playing suffocating D, and with his 3-point shot falling, he is going to score, either on the 3, or with a shot fake and easy drive towards the hoop.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is limping in to the game, as much as a team on a 12-game winning streak can be limping. The last 4 games have been against 4 of the 5 worst teams in the conference, with 2 of those games played at home. They have needed overtime to win by 3, a late flurry (and non-foul call on an obvious fall) at home to win by 3, and a bunch of made free throws in the final 2 minutes to win by 6. They are not dominating the lesser competition like they should be. Compare their last two games against to how BYU handled the same competition a week earlier: Air Force (home) a 3-point win and CSU (road) and a 6-point win. BYU: a 43-point win and a 22-point win. I know you can't compare common opponents and determine the winner of a game, but still, that is a monstrous difference in margin of victory, i.e. quality of play against the same competition in the same week.
Of course, throw all of that out going into tomorrow. Who has the better team? Who has the better game plan? Who executes better? Undecided. Undecided. Undecided, though BYU has been executing better of late, as shown in the preceding paragraph. My answers are: BYU, BYU, and BYU. New Mexico has turned it around on the road this season, playing better on the road than they ever have in the history of their program. But in the last decade, they haven't won a single time in the Marriott Center. And they haven't even come close to winning: only one of those games was decided by single digits (9 years ago). Keep in mind, one of those years BYU went 9-21!
BYU 82, New Mexico 71. Anti-climatic for all of the build-up this game has been getting nationally.
UNLV-Air Force: 70-52 for the Rebels.
Wyoming-Utah: 65-57 for Utah. Getting hot just in time to try to steal 5th place away from CSU. Wyoming likes to push tempo. Boylen likes to grind it to a halt. 65 is a relative offensive explosion for Utah and means the game was played too fast for Boylen's liking (and too slow for a lot of his players' liking...).
CSU-TCU: 64-56 to CSU. Big road win needed to stay on track with Utah. Setting up a showdown for 5th place the last game of the season. Loser of that game has to play UNLV in the first round of the UNLV Invitational.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
SDSU-BYU
This will probably be the toughest test for the Cougars until round 2 of the conference tournament, or the championship game with a first round upset. I know New Mexico will be a huge test, but as stated previously, I think BYU will have a tougher time this game, i.e. it's a bigger test. Based on the game played earlier this season at SDSU, it would seem that BYU should pull this one out easily: on the road they shot better and were essentially even on rebounding, and SDSU shot 20% higher on free throws than usual. One would expect BYU to shoot and rebound better at home and SDSU to make a lower percentage of free throws on the road. That would mark a landslide victory for the Cougars, considering they had a 5-point lead on the road with 2 seconds left. They should win by 15. They could win by 15. They probably won't win by 15.
SDSU absolutely needs this game. They are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win here could push them to the right side of the bubble (last year, they got swept by BYU in-season and it pushed them to the wrong side of it: expect a similar outcome with similar results here). They will go all-out in this game. The motivation they will have is greater than what BYU will have trying to maintain a lead on top of the conference and secure a higher NCAA tournament seed. That can be huge!
2 major differences I see from last time out to this time out:
1) The refs let SDSU and BYU play last time. It was an extremely physical game but with only 23 fouls called. It got very chippy down the stretch and I'm sure the officials won't want the same thing, especially given the fact that SDSU is playing for its tournament life. One might think having more fouls called gives BYU, obviously the better free throw shooting team, the advantage. However, foul trouble is more of an issue for BYU, particularly if Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, or Jonathan Tavernari get in foul trouble. Because of SDSU's athleticism on the front line (particularly Malcolm Thomas and Billy White), seeing Hartsock and Tavernari on the floor together is going to be a necessity. If either is in foul trouble, BYU is in trouble. SDSU also brings in the big bruiser Cartwell, and Miles will have to able to play to neutralize his size, if he is sitting on the bench with fouls, James Anderson and Brandon Davies will not be able to rebound, or prevent Cartwell from getting to the glass. I think foul trouble would prove to be a bigger disadvantage for BYU than free throw shooting would be an advantage for BYU.
2) Jimmer was playing extremely well the last time these two teams played. Everybody else for BYU was not. Now, JT and Emery are heating up again, Miles has played well offensively of late, and Abouo has been practicing better shot selection. Haws had 22 last game (but those were mostly layups and free throws and he won't be able to find the lanes and get open in transition against SDSU like he did against Wyoming). Hartsock has been a little off of late, offensively. Davies hasn't been himself since before the previous SDSU game. Other people have been stepping up, and they will have to in order to survive tonight. Anything they can get from Loyd, Hartsock, Davies, and Miles, at this point, is gravy. But they need 4 other guys to be scoring against SDSU.
I think both teams are great defensive teams, though totally contrasting styles: SDSU is an aggressive, in your face, apply pressure constantly type of defense; BYU is a fundamentally sound, low pressure, stay between their man and the basket, contest everything type of defense. BYU is a better offensive team, but what SDSU lacks in shooting ability, they make up for in offensive rebounding.
Barring a Jimmer-Fredette-like individual effort from DJ Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, or Malcolm Thomas, I think SDSU loses a tight one. If one of those 4 scores 30, SDSU wins a tight one. Barring a spectacular (or spectacularly poor) effort from Fredette, JT, or Haws, BYU wins a tight one. If one of those 3 goes for 30, BYU blows them out. If they all go for under 20, BYU loses a tight one. Did I hedge that one enough? If both teams play well, BYU wins. If both teams play great, BYU wins. If both teams play crappy, BYU wins. If BYU plays poorly, SDSU wins. If SDSU plays amazing, SDSU wins. Now I have surely hedged those picks more than enough...BYU is the better team, SDSU must outplay them to win, which is certainly a possibility.
One of SDSU's big 4 scorers will go off, but BYU will counter by one of their scorers doing the same, and it will come down to the play of DJ Gay vs. Jimmer Fredette down the stretch. At home, shooting free throws, Jimmer should win that battle 99 times out of 100. BYU 75, SDSU 70.
SDSU absolutely needs this game. They are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win here could push them to the right side of the bubble (last year, they got swept by BYU in-season and it pushed them to the wrong side of it: expect a similar outcome with similar results here). They will go all-out in this game. The motivation they will have is greater than what BYU will have trying to maintain a lead on top of the conference and secure a higher NCAA tournament seed. That can be huge!
2 major differences I see from last time out to this time out:
1) The refs let SDSU and BYU play last time. It was an extremely physical game but with only 23 fouls called. It got very chippy down the stretch and I'm sure the officials won't want the same thing, especially given the fact that SDSU is playing for its tournament life. One might think having more fouls called gives BYU, obviously the better free throw shooting team, the advantage. However, foul trouble is more of an issue for BYU, particularly if Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, or Jonathan Tavernari get in foul trouble. Because of SDSU's athleticism on the front line (particularly Malcolm Thomas and Billy White), seeing Hartsock and Tavernari on the floor together is going to be a necessity. If either is in foul trouble, BYU is in trouble. SDSU also brings in the big bruiser Cartwell, and Miles will have to able to play to neutralize his size, if he is sitting on the bench with fouls, James Anderson and Brandon Davies will not be able to rebound, or prevent Cartwell from getting to the glass. I think foul trouble would prove to be a bigger disadvantage for BYU than free throw shooting would be an advantage for BYU.
2) Jimmer was playing extremely well the last time these two teams played. Everybody else for BYU was not. Now, JT and Emery are heating up again, Miles has played well offensively of late, and Abouo has been practicing better shot selection. Haws had 22 last game (but those were mostly layups and free throws and he won't be able to find the lanes and get open in transition against SDSU like he did against Wyoming). Hartsock has been a little off of late, offensively. Davies hasn't been himself since before the previous SDSU game. Other people have been stepping up, and they will have to in order to survive tonight. Anything they can get from Loyd, Hartsock, Davies, and Miles, at this point, is gravy. But they need 4 other guys to be scoring against SDSU.
I think both teams are great defensive teams, though totally contrasting styles: SDSU is an aggressive, in your face, apply pressure constantly type of defense; BYU is a fundamentally sound, low pressure, stay between their man and the basket, contest everything type of defense. BYU is a better offensive team, but what SDSU lacks in shooting ability, they make up for in offensive rebounding.
Barring a Jimmer-Fredette-like individual effort from DJ Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, or Malcolm Thomas, I think SDSU loses a tight one. If one of those 4 scores 30, SDSU wins a tight one. Barring a spectacular (or spectacularly poor) effort from Fredette, JT, or Haws, BYU wins a tight one. If one of those 3 goes for 30, BYU blows them out. If they all go for under 20, BYU loses a tight one. Did I hedge that one enough? If both teams play well, BYU wins. If both teams play great, BYU wins. If both teams play crappy, BYU wins. If BYU plays poorly, SDSU wins. If SDSU plays amazing, SDSU wins. Now I have surely hedged those picks more than enough...BYU is the better team, SDSU must outplay them to win, which is certainly a possibility.
One of SDSU's big 4 scorers will go off, but BYU will counter by one of their scorers doing the same, and it will come down to the play of DJ Gay vs. Jimmer Fredette down the stretch. At home, shooting free throws, Jimmer should win that battle 99 times out of 100. BYU 75, SDSU 70.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Difficult Stretch
This is the second toughest stretch of games for BYU's season (the toughest one was at SDSU and at New Mexico). As far as BYU's chances this week, I really believe they will beat New Mexico. I think it might be a blowout win with big contributions (double-digit scoring) from 3 or 4 players. New Mexico, in the midst of a 10-game win streak, has struggled to pick up wins against teams they should have beaten soundly, most notably Air Force at home this past weekend. Tonight's game at CSU might not be a cakewalk either. The point is: they've been living on the edge and BYU, at home, is the most likely team to knock them off. In addition to that, history is definitely not on their side.
Given the two opponents BYU has this week, New Mexico has struggled much more in the Marriott Center than San Diego State has. New Mexico's last win at the MC came on 2/17/2000. The past two years under Alford (and this year), New Mexico has had a better team than SDSU (finished higher in the conference standings), but has had a much tougher time on the road against BYU. SDSU is 1-2 at home against BYU. New Mexico is 3-0. On the road, however, SDSU has played BYU much tougher than New Mexico, losing by 7 and 3. New Mexico lost those same years by 11 and 17. SDSU has won in the Marriott Center as recently as 2005. Both games will certainly be big tests for BYU, but I think the likelihood of losing is greater for the SDSU game on Wednesday than the New Mexico game on Saturday.
New Mexico beats CSU, 68-63. CSU bounces back after the beatdown by UNLV. Air Force's near upset gives CSU some hope, but not enough.
Utah wins at Air Force, 57-51. Air Force is coming off a "moral" victory. Utah tends to play to the level of their competition. I think it will be a struggle for Utah to "get up" for this game, and it will show in the tightness of the game.
UNLV routs TCU, 81-60. UNLV made a statement last game against CSU. I think they add an exclamation point to that statement. It's too little, too late as far as the conference championship is concerned, but they can still secure a good seed in the NCAA tournament with a strong finish (their final 3 are against the bottom third of the league). They will be on a roll by conference tourney time.
BYU-SDSU preview to come later.
Given the two opponents BYU has this week, New Mexico has struggled much more in the Marriott Center than San Diego State has. New Mexico's last win at the MC came on 2/17/2000. The past two years under Alford (and this year), New Mexico has had a better team than SDSU (finished higher in the conference standings), but has had a much tougher time on the road against BYU. SDSU is 1-2 at home against BYU. New Mexico is 3-0. On the road, however, SDSU has played BYU much tougher than New Mexico, losing by 7 and 3. New Mexico lost those same years by 11 and 17. SDSU has won in the Marriott Center as recently as 2005. Both games will certainly be big tests for BYU, but I think the likelihood of losing is greater for the SDSU game on Wednesday than the New Mexico game on Saturday.
New Mexico beats CSU, 68-63. CSU bounces back after the beatdown by UNLV. Air Force's near upset gives CSU some hope, but not enough.
Utah wins at Air Force, 57-51. Air Force is coming off a "moral" victory. Utah tends to play to the level of their competition. I think it will be a struggle for Utah to "get up" for this game, and it will show in the tightness of the game.
UNLV routs TCU, 81-60. UNLV made a statement last game against CSU. I think they add an exclamation point to that statement. It's too little, too late as far as the conference championship is concerned, but they can still secure a good seed in the NCAA tournament with a strong finish (their final 3 are against the bottom third of the league). They will be on a roll by conference tourney time.
BYU-SDSU preview to come later.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The Last Time Around
3 years ago, BYU entered spring practice after losing John Beck to graduation with a lot of question marks, and a lot of potential, at the QB position. There were four QBs battling for the starting job. 3 sophomores and 1 freshman. Ultimately, Max Hall won out and he turned out to have the winningest career of any BYU QB. But what happened to the other 3 QBs?
Brenden Gaskins was Hall's backup for 3 years (I know he was technically 3rd string this year after giving up his backup job to Riley Nelson: but if Hall had been hurt, I guarantee you Gaskins would have come in, not Nelson!).
Cade Cooper broke his leg in the spring game and transferred to Oregon (but never enrolled) and finally ended up at Southern Utah where he started this past season as a senior. The team went 5-6, while he passed for nearly 3,000 yards and completed 65% of his passes. He was a southpaw who had a tendency to force some throws (kind of like the guy who won the job at BYU...). He would have been a great scout team QB for BYU, nothing more, nothing less. His career was better for having left BYU and BYU didn't really miss him, in the end.
Jacob Bower transferred to Tulsa, where he currently serves as the backup QB to G.J. Kinne. Since Kinne is one year behind Bower in school, it is unlikely he will ever start, barring injury. If he were at BYU still, he would very likely be in line to start at BYU next year. Oops. That's OK for BYU, he is the backup at Tulsa with a 50% career completion percentage! His presence may have scared Jake Heaps off, which means Ross Apo and possibly Zac Stout (3 of BYU's 4 most prized recruits) might not have signed with BYU. So I think Bower's transfer was a good thing for BYU, but probably a bad thing for him.
So now it comes again, Max Hall is gone and BYU has 4 guys who COULD compete for the starting spot (though really only 3 since Jason Munns arrives next fall so I have to assume he won't win the job in fall camp). My guess is that at least one of them will transfer out of the program. Time will tell how it all works out. I think with 3 or 4 guys who should be good, at least one of them actually will be, and that's the good news for BYU fans. Here are my thoughts on the 4 QBs competing for the job this time around:
Riley Nelson was the heir apparent after serving last year in the backup QB roll. He has had time to be coached by the BYU staff and learn the BYU offense. He has had a year to get his pre-mission legs back. His greatest asset is his running ability. However, I would be surprised if he ultimately wins the starting job because he is not what you would call a precision passer, which is absolutely vital to a BYU QB's success. I think he would be best utilized with some Wild Cougar sets and BYU will definitely need to mix it up a bit on O next year because they will be breaking new TEs and a new QB. Plus, I think that is the best chance he has to see action on the field. He won't transfer if he isn't the starting QB, but I just don't see him on the field as a BYU quarterback. He is built somewhat like Tebow as a player, but he's certainly not Tebow. And this is Florida's offense either...
James Lark, I believe, has a leg up on the potential competitors. He redshirted a year prior to his mission, where he learned the offense, which puts him ahead of Jake Heaps. He has the arm strength and precision (or at least he did in high school) that a BYU QB needs to succeed, which puts him ahead of Riley Nelson. He returned from his mission in time to participate in spring drills, which puts him ahead of Jason Munns. It's quite likely, however, that he'll be the Brenden Gaskins in the group: a career backup who is a solid QB in his own right and would do great if called upon. I'm not sure he would transfer out if he wasn't named the starter.
Jake Heaps is the pure passer. He is "the hype." He is one of the greatest QBs coming out of high school this year, if not THE greatest (of course the experts say this is a particularly weak class for QBs, maybe that's because the best of the bunch didn't go to a BCS school...just saying, it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy). The experts also say his ability to read defenses is beyond his years. His accuracy, timing, and footwork are all supposedly flawless. However, that was in high school. This is Division I football, baby! How would he handle a Nick Holt-coached Washington defense? Or a Florida State defense on the road led by one of the Stoops brothers? Or TCU or Utah's always nasty and stingy defenses? That's a lot different than what he was seeing at the high school level. However, the kid started 3 years in high school and only lost 2 games and won 3 state championships. He was Washington State player of the year. He was first team All-American. He was the MVP of the Elite 8 camp (meaning he was the best of the 8 best high school QBs in the region). He was the starting QB for the West in the High School All-American Bowl. The kid is as good, as prepared, and as equipped to succeed on the big stage as any QB to set foot on BYU campus possibly ever, or certainly since Ty Detmer stepped onto campus. If you had an experienced senior moving in to take the starting job, I could see you making this kid wait a year to play. But given what you have in the system, how could you not give this kid the reigns from Day One? I imagine he will either be the starter or the backup as a true freshman, so he will stay put regardless (maybe if he drops to 3rd or 4th, however...).
Jason Munns has the size, arm strength, pocket presence, etc. to succeed as a QB. However, he won't get home from his mission this summer and there's no way he can break into the top 3 with that kind of a disadvantage. The guy was hyped coming out of high school like crazy. But if you can't put in the time, you aren't going to see the field. I would be shocked if this kid ends up staying at BYU for longer than a semester, if he even shows up at all! He's probably going to be a very successful QB, but he's 4th in line with no guarantees he'll ever get higher than that. BYU already has another QB committed for the 2011 recruiting class. I just don't think he's going to survive at BYU. He will probably be the Cade Cooper or Jacob Bower of the group (a starter at a crappy I-AA school or a solid backup at a decent I-A school).
Brenden Gaskins was Hall's backup for 3 years (I know he was technically 3rd string this year after giving up his backup job to Riley Nelson: but if Hall had been hurt, I guarantee you Gaskins would have come in, not Nelson!).
Cade Cooper broke his leg in the spring game and transferred to Oregon (but never enrolled) and finally ended up at Southern Utah where he started this past season as a senior. The team went 5-6, while he passed for nearly 3,000 yards and completed 65% of his passes. He was a southpaw who had a tendency to force some throws (kind of like the guy who won the job at BYU...). He would have been a great scout team QB for BYU, nothing more, nothing less. His career was better for having left BYU and BYU didn't really miss him, in the end.
Jacob Bower transferred to Tulsa, where he currently serves as the backup QB to G.J. Kinne. Since Kinne is one year behind Bower in school, it is unlikely he will ever start, barring injury. If he were at BYU still, he would very likely be in line to start at BYU next year. Oops. That's OK for BYU, he is the backup at Tulsa with a 50% career completion percentage! His presence may have scared Jake Heaps off, which means Ross Apo and possibly Zac Stout (3 of BYU's 4 most prized recruits) might not have signed with BYU. So I think Bower's transfer was a good thing for BYU, but probably a bad thing for him.
So now it comes again, Max Hall is gone and BYU has 4 guys who COULD compete for the starting spot (though really only 3 since Jason Munns arrives next fall so I have to assume he won't win the job in fall camp). My guess is that at least one of them will transfer out of the program. Time will tell how it all works out. I think with 3 or 4 guys who should be good, at least one of them actually will be, and that's the good news for BYU fans. Here are my thoughts on the 4 QBs competing for the job this time around:
Riley Nelson was the heir apparent after serving last year in the backup QB roll. He has had time to be coached by the BYU staff and learn the BYU offense. He has had a year to get his pre-mission legs back. His greatest asset is his running ability. However, I would be surprised if he ultimately wins the starting job because he is not what you would call a precision passer, which is absolutely vital to a BYU QB's success. I think he would be best utilized with some Wild Cougar sets and BYU will definitely need to mix it up a bit on O next year because they will be breaking new TEs and a new QB. Plus, I think that is the best chance he has to see action on the field. He won't transfer if he isn't the starting QB, but I just don't see him on the field as a BYU quarterback. He is built somewhat like Tebow as a player, but he's certainly not Tebow. And this is Florida's offense either...
James Lark, I believe, has a leg up on the potential competitors. He redshirted a year prior to his mission, where he learned the offense, which puts him ahead of Jake Heaps. He has the arm strength and precision (or at least he did in high school) that a BYU QB needs to succeed, which puts him ahead of Riley Nelson. He returned from his mission in time to participate in spring drills, which puts him ahead of Jason Munns. It's quite likely, however, that he'll be the Brenden Gaskins in the group: a career backup who is a solid QB in his own right and would do great if called upon. I'm not sure he would transfer out if he wasn't named the starter.
Jake Heaps is the pure passer. He is "the hype." He is one of the greatest QBs coming out of high school this year, if not THE greatest (of course the experts say this is a particularly weak class for QBs, maybe that's because the best of the bunch didn't go to a BCS school...just saying, it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy). The experts also say his ability to read defenses is beyond his years. His accuracy, timing, and footwork are all supposedly flawless. However, that was in high school. This is Division I football, baby! How would he handle a Nick Holt-coached Washington defense? Or a Florida State defense on the road led by one of the Stoops brothers? Or TCU or Utah's always nasty and stingy defenses? That's a lot different than what he was seeing at the high school level. However, the kid started 3 years in high school and only lost 2 games and won 3 state championships. He was Washington State player of the year. He was first team All-American. He was the MVP of the Elite 8 camp (meaning he was the best of the 8 best high school QBs in the region). He was the starting QB for the West in the High School All-American Bowl. The kid is as good, as prepared, and as equipped to succeed on the big stage as any QB to set foot on BYU campus possibly ever, or certainly since Ty Detmer stepped onto campus. If you had an experienced senior moving in to take the starting job, I could see you making this kid wait a year to play. But given what you have in the system, how could you not give this kid the reigns from Day One? I imagine he will either be the starter or the backup as a true freshman, so he will stay put regardless (maybe if he drops to 3rd or 4th, however...).
Jason Munns has the size, arm strength, pocket presence, etc. to succeed as a QB. However, he won't get home from his mission this summer and there's no way he can break into the top 3 with that kind of a disadvantage. The guy was hyped coming out of high school like crazy. But if you can't put in the time, you aren't going to see the field. I would be shocked if this kid ends up staying at BYU for longer than a semester, if he even shows up at all! He's probably going to be a very successful QB, but he's 4th in line with no guarantees he'll ever get higher than that. BYU already has another QB committed for the 2011 recruiting class. I just don't think he's going to survive at BYU. He will probably be the Cade Cooper or Jacob Bower of the group (a starter at a crappy I-AA school or a solid backup at a decent I-A school).
Saturday, February 20, 2010
MWC, Saturday, February 20
Sorry for the late post.
New Mexico 74, Air Force 46. Air Force tries to slow you down, but they won't be able to do that to New Mexico.
UNLV 77, CSU 66. UNLV needs to right the ship ASAP if they want to make the tourney. Saturday afternoon in the Thomas & Mack against CSU sounds like as good a place as any to get that righted.
SDSU 64, Utah 56. Two of the best defensive teams in the conference, two of the worst offensive teams. This won't be pretty. It is simulcast tonight on the Mtn and CBS College Sports if you are completely bored on a Saturday night and get either of those channels.
BYU 85, Wyoming 71. Two fast-paced, up-tempo teams. It probably gets a little sloppy/frantic early on, but I anticipate BYU laying the wood on the Cowboys in the second half.
At this point BYU and New Mexico are locks for the tourney, just playing for seeding (and a conference championship). I think right now, UNLV is in and SDSU isn't. The stretch run will be crucial for both of these teams. SDSU can play itself in. UNLV can play itself out. It's margin for error is much smaller after the season sweep by Utah.
Speaking of Utah, could there be a more inconsistent team in the country? They've beaten some NCAA tournament teams (including road and neutral site wins) and lost to a few teams that may end up with single digit wins on the season. Coaching, coaching, coaching...there is talent in the program: Boylen either needs someone else to coordinate the O, or Utah needs to get someone else to run the team. Boylen has the 4th best team in the conference and he's in 6th. Last year he tied for first with the second best team (and went one and done in the NCAA tourney). Two years ago, he had the 4th best team and was 6th. Any bets on next year? With the incoming freshmen they have (will probably have the second best recruiting class in the conference), they should be a top 3 or 4 team next year (New Mexico 1, UNLV 2, BYU/SDSU/Utah 3/4/5). I'd be shocked if Boylen can get them within reach of a conference championship: but make no mistake, they are good enough next year to be in contention.
New Mexico 74, Air Force 46. Air Force tries to slow you down, but they won't be able to do that to New Mexico.
UNLV 77, CSU 66. UNLV needs to right the ship ASAP if they want to make the tourney. Saturday afternoon in the Thomas & Mack against CSU sounds like as good a place as any to get that righted.
SDSU 64, Utah 56. Two of the best defensive teams in the conference, two of the worst offensive teams. This won't be pretty. It is simulcast tonight on the Mtn and CBS College Sports if you are completely bored on a Saturday night and get either of those channels.
BYU 85, Wyoming 71. Two fast-paced, up-tempo teams. It probably gets a little sloppy/frantic early on, but I anticipate BYU laying the wood on the Cowboys in the second half.
At this point BYU and New Mexico are locks for the tourney, just playing for seeding (and a conference championship). I think right now, UNLV is in and SDSU isn't. The stretch run will be crucial for both of these teams. SDSU can play itself in. UNLV can play itself out. It's margin for error is much smaller after the season sweep by Utah.
Speaking of Utah, could there be a more inconsistent team in the country? They've beaten some NCAA tournament teams (including road and neutral site wins) and lost to a few teams that may end up with single digit wins on the season. Coaching, coaching, coaching...there is talent in the program: Boylen either needs someone else to coordinate the O, or Utah needs to get someone else to run the team. Boylen has the 4th best team in the conference and he's in 6th. Last year he tied for first with the second best team (and went one and done in the NCAA tourney). Two years ago, he had the 4th best team and was 6th. Any bets on next year? With the incoming freshmen they have (will probably have the second best recruiting class in the conference), they should be a top 3 or 4 team next year (New Mexico 1, UNLV 2, BYU/SDSU/Utah 3/4/5). I'd be shocked if Boylen can get them within reach of a conference championship: but make no mistake, they are good enough next year to be in contention.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Upcoming MWC Games
Well, I didn't do so hot on my picks over the weekend. If Utah hadn't have been jobbed by the stripes in the home stretch and OT, they might have had a chance to pull off the monumental upset, and I would have looked very good in my pick. It really is inexcusable for the Utes to have a losing record. They won at UNLV, something only two other teams have done this season, and both of them are going to get top 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Then they lost at Wyoming. They give New Mexico and SDSU all they want at home. Then they lose by 15 to CSU at home. Coaching...just saying. Boylen sucks.
Not such an interesting week this week in the MWC: the top 4 are playing the bottom 4. At least 3 of the bottom 4 are at home and might be able to make the games interesting.
San Diego State travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU. TCU played the Aztecs tough in San Diego before finally falling in the game (and proceeding to drop 4 in a row in conference after that). TCU is playing better lately and I fully expect them to give SDSU a run for their money in this game. Both teams gained some confidence over the weekend with wins they weren't expected to get. I do like SDSU's toughness and defense. I don't like their offense and the consistency of their effort. That's why they are always a bubble team, always a 4th place MWC finisher, and always dropping a few inexplicable games during the season. San Diego pulls away late: SDSU 72, TCU 60.
New Mexico hosts Wyoming Wednesday night. I'm sure Alford will have the boys fired up after a somewhat lackluster performance at Utah and the home crowd will be rocking to welcome their top 15 Lobos home. I expect a very fast-paced game with Wyoming turning the ball over a lot against New Mexico's pressure. New Mexico 81, Wyoming 56.
Utah is either getting UNLV at the absolute best time or the absolute worst time. UNLV is coming off two consecutive double-digit losses. They are also out for revenge since Utah beat them when they played at the Thomas & Mack. Either UNLV comes out gunning, ticked about their recent losses, avenging their home loss to Utah, and fighting for their conference championship lives, or UNLV comes out flat and sulking after going from the driver's seat to the child's booster seat with their feet on the hump in the way back. My guess is the former. They are too good of a team to score 66 and 58 in consecutive games, then lose a third game in a row to a team without a winning record. Both teams D's can lock down in stretches, UNLV will probably have a few more of those stretches this game, however. UNLV 64, Utah 57.
CSU finds itself tied in the loss column for 3rd place in the conference, with BYU tied for first in the L column. Last time these two met, CSU came into the game with a high standing in the conference and feeling pretty good. After winning their last 3 this time, with 2 on the road and one against Border War Rival Wyoming, currently in quasi-3rd place, I'm sure they are feeling pretty good again. As with last time, CSU is coming off of a bye. BYU went into that last matchup coming off a blowout win over Air Force. Same thing here. The only differences really: the venue and CSU's desperation. CSU is within reach of an NIT bid and probably just needs a big win or two to get there. CSU likes to slow the pace down. BYU likes to speed the pace up. CSU has been prone to get rushed by the faster/running teams in the conference. BYU has been slowed down by the more athletic, defensive-minded teams in the conference. I'm not putting CSU in that category. Maybe next year they can move into that group. Maybe. I anticipate some difference in the result, a slightly closer matchup, perhaps, but still a blowout for the Cougars: BYU 78, CSU 59.
Not such an interesting week this week in the MWC: the top 4 are playing the bottom 4. At least 3 of the bottom 4 are at home and might be able to make the games interesting.
San Diego State travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU. TCU played the Aztecs tough in San Diego before finally falling in the game (and proceeding to drop 4 in a row in conference after that). TCU is playing better lately and I fully expect them to give SDSU a run for their money in this game. Both teams gained some confidence over the weekend with wins they weren't expected to get. I do like SDSU's toughness and defense. I don't like their offense and the consistency of their effort. That's why they are always a bubble team, always a 4th place MWC finisher, and always dropping a few inexplicable games during the season. San Diego pulls away late: SDSU 72, TCU 60.
New Mexico hosts Wyoming Wednesday night. I'm sure Alford will have the boys fired up after a somewhat lackluster performance at Utah and the home crowd will be rocking to welcome their top 15 Lobos home. I expect a very fast-paced game with Wyoming turning the ball over a lot against New Mexico's pressure. New Mexico 81, Wyoming 56.
Utah is either getting UNLV at the absolute best time or the absolute worst time. UNLV is coming off two consecutive double-digit losses. They are also out for revenge since Utah beat them when they played at the Thomas & Mack. Either UNLV comes out gunning, ticked about their recent losses, avenging their home loss to Utah, and fighting for their conference championship lives, or UNLV comes out flat and sulking after going from the driver's seat to the child's booster seat with their feet on the hump in the way back. My guess is the former. They are too good of a team to score 66 and 58 in consecutive games, then lose a third game in a row to a team without a winning record. Both teams D's can lock down in stretches, UNLV will probably have a few more of those stretches this game, however. UNLV 64, Utah 57.
CSU finds itself tied in the loss column for 3rd place in the conference, with BYU tied for first in the L column. Last time these two met, CSU came into the game with a high standing in the conference and feeling pretty good. After winning their last 3 this time, with 2 on the road and one against Border War Rival Wyoming, currently in quasi-3rd place, I'm sure they are feeling pretty good again. As with last time, CSU is coming off of a bye. BYU went into that last matchup coming off a blowout win over Air Force. Same thing here. The only differences really: the venue and CSU's desperation. CSU is within reach of an NIT bid and probably just needs a big win or two to get there. CSU likes to slow the pace down. BYU likes to speed the pace up. CSU has been prone to get rushed by the faster/running teams in the conference. BYU has been slowed down by the more athletic, defensive-minded teams in the conference. I'm not putting CSU in that category. Maybe next year they can move into that group. Maybe. I anticipate some difference in the result, a slightly closer matchup, perhaps, but still a blowout for the Cougars: BYU 78, CSU 59.
Friday, February 12, 2010
One big one, 3 others
I'm not saying there won't be any upsets tomorrow in some of the other games (in fact, quite the opposite if you keep reading), but the big game of the weekend is UNLV at SDSU. New Mexico did BYU a favor by whooping up on UNLV. UNLV might lose one more time this season, but that would be all. The Lobos UNLV-against-BYU-esque performance essentially gives the winner of the New Mexico-BYU game at least a share of the conference championship. Thanks, Lobos, for giving the Cougars control of their own destiny again.
TCU-Wyoming: two teams heading in the wrong direction. Since their last meeting, the teams have combined for a 3-13 record. With a loss, Wyoming will essentially clinch a spot in the play-in game in the conference tourney. However, I'm not sure TCU keeps up with Wyoming's pace, particularly in Laramie at 7,200 feet. Wyoming 76, TCU 64.
New Mexico-Utah: New Mexico comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country. Utah comes in having lost 3 of 4. Their season is all but done. New Mexico is trying to play its way to a possible 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament (if they won out, they would be in the mix: I don't think they'll get there though-at BYU, and having to beat two quality teams in the MWC tourney in Vegas, with one of those two likely being Vegas). The last meeting was a 17-point beatdown in the Pit. New Mexico hasn't scored less than 70 since the beginning of January. Utah hasn't scored more than 70 in nearly a month, and that was against the 9th place team in the MWC. Utah has no chance. For whatever reason, though, these are the games they somehow seem to win: which just makes you wonder how different their season would be if they had a good coach. Utah 71, New Mexico 65. The enigma that is Utah basketball continues.
UNLV-San Diego State: UNLV came back down to earth Wednesday against New Mexico after the amazing shooting game they had against BYU last Saturday. That's what happens: stats and averages really don't lie, if you aren't a good shooting team you'll have a bad game after having a good game. SDSU is also playing really well right now. They nearly pulled off a shocker at the Pit last weekend, losing by 2 in OT. They dominated Air Force, Wyoming, and CSU (not the best of competition, but winning 3 conference games by an average of nearly 20 is tough no matter what). This one should be a barn-burner (it's on Versus at 1pm Pacific, 2 Mountain, 4 Eastern: check this game out, it will be a physical game with a lot of athletic moves and plays). UNLV has a history of playing big in road games against the Big Three, and this definitely qualifies. They also have a history of losing at least 4 MWC games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win this game and follow it up with a loss at Utah. Again, they have a history of playing big in these types of road games. If they get running early, they'll run away with it, maybe a 10-12 point win. I think they start quicker than SDSU, but won't establish enough of a lead to pull it out. SDSU 74, UNLV 69. UNLV won't lose again this season: too many home games, too many weak opponents. Their stay in the top 25 wasn't very long!
Air Force-BYU: Lamont Morgan is out, for how long, no one has said. This will be a good opportunity for Michael Loyd to get some minutes. The bye came at a good time for BYU as well: Haws needed a rest (that darn freshman wall), Jackson Emery needed to ponder his shot selection, Tavernari needed to establish himself again as one of the greatest 6th men in America, and Jimmer needed to take a step back and refocus for the home stretch. Davies should be back next week. I think they can build some momentum starting this game, then with road games at CSU and Wyoming next week. Air Force is just plain terrible. Air Force's lone MWC win was a home game against 8th place Wyoming, by seven. They have had some reasonably close games against the bottom half of the conference but have been consistently blown out by the top half, especially on the road. They do a decent job of forcing people into slow starts and making them adjust to their style of play. However, I think BYU comes out gunning and never looks back: the second half of the last game, they had the Falcons figured out. Air Force will be the team unable to adjust, as BYU's style of play dominates this game. They won't even know what hit them. BYU 75, Air Force 48.
TCU-Wyoming: two teams heading in the wrong direction. Since their last meeting, the teams have combined for a 3-13 record. With a loss, Wyoming will essentially clinch a spot in the play-in game in the conference tourney. However, I'm not sure TCU keeps up with Wyoming's pace, particularly in Laramie at 7,200 feet. Wyoming 76, TCU 64.
New Mexico-Utah: New Mexico comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country. Utah comes in having lost 3 of 4. Their season is all but done. New Mexico is trying to play its way to a possible 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament (if they won out, they would be in the mix: I don't think they'll get there though-at BYU, and having to beat two quality teams in the MWC tourney in Vegas, with one of those two likely being Vegas). The last meeting was a 17-point beatdown in the Pit. New Mexico hasn't scored less than 70 since the beginning of January. Utah hasn't scored more than 70 in nearly a month, and that was against the 9th place team in the MWC. Utah has no chance. For whatever reason, though, these are the games they somehow seem to win: which just makes you wonder how different their season would be if they had a good coach. Utah 71, New Mexico 65. The enigma that is Utah basketball continues.
UNLV-San Diego State: UNLV came back down to earth Wednesday against New Mexico after the amazing shooting game they had against BYU last Saturday. That's what happens: stats and averages really don't lie, if you aren't a good shooting team you'll have a bad game after having a good game. SDSU is also playing really well right now. They nearly pulled off a shocker at the Pit last weekend, losing by 2 in OT. They dominated Air Force, Wyoming, and CSU (not the best of competition, but winning 3 conference games by an average of nearly 20 is tough no matter what). This one should be a barn-burner (it's on Versus at 1pm Pacific, 2 Mountain, 4 Eastern: check this game out, it will be a physical game with a lot of athletic moves and plays). UNLV has a history of playing big in road games against the Big Three, and this definitely qualifies. They also have a history of losing at least 4 MWC games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win this game and follow it up with a loss at Utah. Again, they have a history of playing big in these types of road games. If they get running early, they'll run away with it, maybe a 10-12 point win. I think they start quicker than SDSU, but won't establish enough of a lead to pull it out. SDSU 74, UNLV 69. UNLV won't lose again this season: too many home games, too many weak opponents. Their stay in the top 25 wasn't very long!
Air Force-BYU: Lamont Morgan is out, for how long, no one has said. This will be a good opportunity for Michael Loyd to get some minutes. The bye came at a good time for BYU as well: Haws needed a rest (that darn freshman wall), Jackson Emery needed to ponder his shot selection, Tavernari needed to establish himself again as one of the greatest 6th men in America, and Jimmer needed to take a step back and refocus for the home stretch. Davies should be back next week. I think they can build some momentum starting this game, then with road games at CSU and Wyoming next week. Air Force is just plain terrible. Air Force's lone MWC win was a home game against 8th place Wyoming, by seven. They have had some reasonably close games against the bottom half of the conference but have been consistently blown out by the top half, especially on the road. They do a decent job of forcing people into slow starts and making them adjust to their style of play. However, I think BYU comes out gunning and never looks back: the second half of the last game, they had the Falcons figured out. Air Force will be the team unable to adjust, as BYU's style of play dominates this game. They won't even know what hit them. BYU 75, Air Force 48.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Pac 10 Expansion
Well, the annual Pac 10 expansion conversation is upon us. This time the Pac 10 went the other way in discussion, however: "we will look into expansion." I will make the case for the possible players (the top 3 are in the order I consider the likelihood of the schools joining the Pac 10-after the top 3, it gets amazingly less likely so it's tough to rank):
Utah:
Pros: Good academics, but not great. Medical facilities are on par with USC and exceed Arizona (5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program). Pretty good law and engineering graduate programs. 2 BCS wins, more than the entire Pac 10 combined, minus USC. They sport a winning record against the Pac 10 under Kyle Whittingham. Several recent trips to the NCAA tournament as an at-large (huge because the Pac 10 likely won't have any at-large teams this year!), and have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in this decade. Solid Women's Gymnastics, Soccer, and Volleyball programs. Salt Lake is a decent-size TV market, though the Utes are about the 3rd biggest draw for sports in the market behind the Jazz and the Cougars.
Cons: Business school stinks with job placement around 50%. Hoops are so up and down, and since Majerus left they have not been a national force, though they have had years at the top of the Mountain West. Several 3rd and 4th place finishes in the MWC the past 5 years in football (and some even lower in hoops). It would seem they are probably a package deal: you take them you might have to take BYU. Stadium is small, though several Pac 10 schools have a smaller stadium.
Colorado:
Pros: Pretty stinking good academics. They have a rich tradition in football, with a Heisman trophy winner, National Championship, etc. Good stadium size, solid attendance, and a decent TV draw in Denver (like Utah, however, they are not at the top of the list by any means). CU may want to leave the Big 12 and start afresh with a fertile California recruiting ground (I don't think you can overstate how big of a plus it is that they are in the Big 12: if you can get a BCS team to defect, that beats taking a non-BCS team and trying to get them up to a BCS level).
Cons: Pretty stinking athletics. Past tradition has not translated into current excellence. Colorado did not get a single recruit that was rated one of Colorado's top 10 high school players. They don't open up a good recruiting base for the Pac 10, they merely expand their presence to east of the Rockies (barely).
BYU:
Pros: decent academics. Their business and law graduate programs are well-respected. They need help in engineering, but it is a well-financed program. Athletics are well-established. They have great Olympic sports, decent golf, baseball, and women's sports. Football would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Basketball would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Stadiums are large and they fill them. Attendance ranks among the highest in the west: factor in playing conference games against Pac 10 opponents instead of MWC opponents and they would rank the highest in basketball in the west. National fan-base. Salt Lake market.
Cons: not a research-oriented university. There are some "censorship" issues that some Pac 10 schools wouldn't like. The conservative values and unwillingness to compromise on those that may cause some issues to Pac 10 presidents. Basically, their Mormon-ness makes them a bad cultural fit with Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, etc. No medical school (not really an issue: 5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program and 1 has a crappy medical program: Arizona). Some Pac 10 sports occasionally play on Sundays (baseball and some Olympic sports, with an occasional basketball game) and BYU does not ever play on Sundays. The inability to win big games in sports might be a down-side: no NCAA tourney wins in 17 years and an abysmal record against ranked opponents in football over the past decade.
TCU:
Pros: Texas team. Texas recruits. Texas exposure. Did I mention TCU plays home games in Fort Worth, which is in Texas? Very wealthy institution, with good academics, and a stellar football program. The other sports lag behind somewhat, but if they give the Pac 10 an "in" in Texas, that could/would be overlooked.
Cons: Poor sports besides football and women's basketball. Small following. Not amazingly prestigious in anything.
Texas Tech:
Pros: see the pros of TCU and being in Texas. Add to that the fact that Texas Tech is a Big 12 school, and that would be an amazing coupe. If I were Tech, I'd certainly want to exit the Big 12 South! Decent academics, but not spectacular.
Cons: nothing real spectacular about them. They are in the middle of nowhere in Texas. So you have to travel all the way to Texas and then drive 4 hours into the Texas desert...I don't care if you live in Pullman, Washington, that sounds more like the start of a horror film than a conference road game...
New Mexico:
Pros: well, they are only considered if TCU or Texas Tech are picked and need a "rival" in conference. They are a good academic school. Sports are OK. Basketball is more than OK. If they come as a package with TCU, the Pac 10 would extend unimpeded from the Pacific Ocean to Dallas.
Cons: they don't stand individually. No major revenue, market, recruiting base, etc. Like I said: they aren't bad in a package deal with a Texas school.
CSU:
See New Mexico, except change TCU to CU. They would be a good package deal with the Buffaloes. Solid academics mixed with below-solid athletics: a lot of similarities to the current state of the Washington-Washington State package.
San Diego State:
Pros: San Diego is a big market and a beautiful place to play a conference road game in January.
Cons: nobody cares about SDSU in San Diego. The Pac 10 recruiting already dominates San Diego. The other-non-California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school. The California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school to compete against in recruiting. Academics are poor. Fan are religious bigots.
UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force are probably all no's. For BYU fans, the expansion may result in BYU joining a BCS conference, but might not be the Pac 10. Like I said, they are probably third on the list (maybe even lower). Mizzou to the Big 10, CU to the Pac 10, and suddenly BYU becomes a good option for the Big 12...
I think a lot of schools have a plus or two, but all of them come with more than a minus or two. I believe that is the reason that the Pac 10 has not expanded already: they can't find two teams that they want to add, that want to join, that all 10 schools would approve of. BYU-Utah is the obvious combination, but they aren't exactly perfect fits. Unless they are absolutely forced into expanding, I'm not sure they will. If they do, I'm not sure they will make the right decision on whom to pick anyway. It should be exciting to see how the next 12 months play out with Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion, and how the dominoes fall with the Big 12 and MWC (and possibly the Big East).
Utah:
Pros: Good academics, but not great. Medical facilities are on par with USC and exceed Arizona (5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program). Pretty good law and engineering graduate programs. 2 BCS wins, more than the entire Pac 10 combined, minus USC. They sport a winning record against the Pac 10 under Kyle Whittingham. Several recent trips to the NCAA tournament as an at-large (huge because the Pac 10 likely won't have any at-large teams this year!), and have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in this decade. Solid Women's Gymnastics, Soccer, and Volleyball programs. Salt Lake is a decent-size TV market, though the Utes are about the 3rd biggest draw for sports in the market behind the Jazz and the Cougars.
Cons: Business school stinks with job placement around 50%. Hoops are so up and down, and since Majerus left they have not been a national force, though they have had years at the top of the Mountain West. Several 3rd and 4th place finishes in the MWC the past 5 years in football (and some even lower in hoops). It would seem they are probably a package deal: you take them you might have to take BYU. Stadium is small, though several Pac 10 schools have a smaller stadium.
Colorado:
Pros: Pretty stinking good academics. They have a rich tradition in football, with a Heisman trophy winner, National Championship, etc. Good stadium size, solid attendance, and a decent TV draw in Denver (like Utah, however, they are not at the top of the list by any means). CU may want to leave the Big 12 and start afresh with a fertile California recruiting ground (I don't think you can overstate how big of a plus it is that they are in the Big 12: if you can get a BCS team to defect, that beats taking a non-BCS team and trying to get them up to a BCS level).
Cons: Pretty stinking athletics. Past tradition has not translated into current excellence. Colorado did not get a single recruit that was rated one of Colorado's top 10 high school players. They don't open up a good recruiting base for the Pac 10, they merely expand their presence to east of the Rockies (barely).
BYU:
Pros: decent academics. Their business and law graduate programs are well-respected. They need help in engineering, but it is a well-financed program. Athletics are well-established. They have great Olympic sports, decent golf, baseball, and women's sports. Football would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Basketball would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Stadiums are large and they fill them. Attendance ranks among the highest in the west: factor in playing conference games against Pac 10 opponents instead of MWC opponents and they would rank the highest in basketball in the west. National fan-base. Salt Lake market.
Cons: not a research-oriented university. There are some "censorship" issues that some Pac 10 schools wouldn't like. The conservative values and unwillingness to compromise on those that may cause some issues to Pac 10 presidents. Basically, their Mormon-ness makes them a bad cultural fit with Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, etc. No medical school (not really an issue: 5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program and 1 has a crappy medical program: Arizona). Some Pac 10 sports occasionally play on Sundays (baseball and some Olympic sports, with an occasional basketball game) and BYU does not ever play on Sundays. The inability to win big games in sports might be a down-side: no NCAA tourney wins in 17 years and an abysmal record against ranked opponents in football over the past decade.
TCU:
Pros: Texas team. Texas recruits. Texas exposure. Did I mention TCU plays home games in Fort Worth, which is in Texas? Very wealthy institution, with good academics, and a stellar football program. The other sports lag behind somewhat, but if they give the Pac 10 an "in" in Texas, that could/would be overlooked.
Cons: Poor sports besides football and women's basketball. Small following. Not amazingly prestigious in anything.
Texas Tech:
Pros: see the pros of TCU and being in Texas. Add to that the fact that Texas Tech is a Big 12 school, and that would be an amazing coupe. If I were Tech, I'd certainly want to exit the Big 12 South! Decent academics, but not spectacular.
Cons: nothing real spectacular about them. They are in the middle of nowhere in Texas. So you have to travel all the way to Texas and then drive 4 hours into the Texas desert...I don't care if you live in Pullman, Washington, that sounds more like the start of a horror film than a conference road game...
New Mexico:
Pros: well, they are only considered if TCU or Texas Tech are picked and need a "rival" in conference. They are a good academic school. Sports are OK. Basketball is more than OK. If they come as a package with TCU, the Pac 10 would extend unimpeded from the Pacific Ocean to Dallas.
Cons: they don't stand individually. No major revenue, market, recruiting base, etc. Like I said: they aren't bad in a package deal with a Texas school.
CSU:
See New Mexico, except change TCU to CU. They would be a good package deal with the Buffaloes. Solid academics mixed with below-solid athletics: a lot of similarities to the current state of the Washington-Washington State package.
San Diego State:
Pros: San Diego is a big market and a beautiful place to play a conference road game in January.
Cons: nobody cares about SDSU in San Diego. The Pac 10 recruiting already dominates San Diego. The other-non-California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school. The California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school to compete against in recruiting. Academics are poor. Fan are religious bigots.
UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force are probably all no's. For BYU fans, the expansion may result in BYU joining a BCS conference, but might not be the Pac 10. Like I said, they are probably third on the list (maybe even lower). Mizzou to the Big 10, CU to the Pac 10, and suddenly BYU becomes a good option for the Big 12...
I think a lot of schools have a plus or two, but all of them come with more than a minus or two. I believe that is the reason that the Pac 10 has not expanded already: they can't find two teams that they want to add, that want to join, that all 10 schools would approve of. BYU-Utah is the obvious combination, but they aren't exactly perfect fits. Unless they are absolutely forced into expanding, I'm not sure they will. If they do, I'm not sure they will make the right decision on whom to pick anyway. It should be exciting to see how the next 12 months play out with Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion, and how the dominoes fall with the Big 12 and MWC (and possibly the Big East).
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
BYU's 2010 Non-Conference Schedule
Well, BYU officially announced it's non-conference schedule for next football season. There were no surprises, which is always a good thing. A few years back Nevada surprised them, so, they'll take no surprises this year.
Week 1: Washington
Week 3: at Florida State
Week 4: Nevada
Week 5: at Utah State
As far as the conference schedule is concerned, theoretically, they have 4 home and 4 road games as follows:
Road:
Air Force
Colorado State
TCU
Utah
Home:
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
New Mexico
A few side notes about the schedule: in week 2, BYU will either play against UNLV, at Air Force, or have a bye. UNLV and Air Force are the only two MWC teams that don't have an opponent slated for the second week of the season. All other teams have non-conference games scheduled that week.
TCU-BYU seem to always meet around mid-October, I would anticipate a similar scheduling of this year's game. Obviously, Utah-BYU is the second-to-last Saturday of the season, as has been the case forever. I would anticipate homecoming to be the second Saturday in October against SDSU or Wyoming (more likely SDSU), sandwiched between road games at Utah State and TCU.
Week 1: Washington
Week 3: at Florida State
Week 4: Nevada
Week 5: at Utah State
As far as the conference schedule is concerned, theoretically, they have 4 home and 4 road games as follows:
Road:
Air Force
Colorado State
TCU
Utah
Home:
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
New Mexico
A few side notes about the schedule: in week 2, BYU will either play against UNLV, at Air Force, or have a bye. UNLV and Air Force are the only two MWC teams that don't have an opponent slated for the second week of the season. All other teams have non-conference games scheduled that week.
TCU-BYU seem to always meet around mid-October, I would anticipate a similar scheduling of this year's game. Obviously, Utah-BYU is the second-to-last Saturday of the season, as has been the case forever. I would anticipate homecoming to be the second Saturday in October against SDSU or Wyoming (more likely SDSU), sandwiched between road games at Utah State and TCU.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Saturday, February 6 MWC games (and more)
TCU over Air Force: 58-50. These are two teams that will in all likelihood remain in the bottom third of the league. There isn't much depth, maybe even less talent, and teams that can lose at home as easily as on the road.
CSU over Wyoming: 70-60. Two very contrasting styles: CSU likes to slow the pace down, walk it up the court, grind it out in the halfcourt; Wyoming likes to run, forces you to run by pressing, and takes shots early in the shot clock. It will be interesting to see which one actually plays out: I do anticipate CSU to win, b/c they are playing better basketball right now. The win at the Huntsman Center this week should give them confidence going into this game. They won at Wyoming the first time through conference play.
New Mexico over SDSU: 76-62. There probably isn't a hotter team in the league right now that New Mexico. They had a bye on Wednesday to allow them to get rested, healthy, and prepared for this showdown in Albuquerque. The Pit should be rocking again. SDSU just hasn't found itself yet, in my opinion. They are playing well as individuals, but they just seem to be missing that team chemistry. On the road, in this league, you cannot have that and expect to win: that's why they lost at Wyoming.
UNLV over BYU: 73-68. Before this week's game, I thought BYU would pull this one out. After watching BYU play well, but not phenomenal, against TCU (with similar performances the previous two weeks), and watching UNLV clicking on all cylinders against Wyoming, I have to give the edge to UNLV. I certainly am a lot more confident BYU can win THIS game against UNLV than any game against the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack in a long time. They will need several guys to play big for this game, particularly Hartsock and Tavernari to establish an inside presence, but Emery's 3-point shooting and Haws ability to get to the basket and shoot the mid-range jumper can take some of the pressure off of Jimmer. They will need that. If they can build an early lead, they win the game. If they get behind in the game and UNLV gets behind the crowd, it's going to be an uphill battle. With all that said, this is going to be a GREAT game.
My thoughts on the second half of conference play:
BYU will lose a maximum of 3 conference games.
UNLV and New Mexico will lose a minimum of 3 conference games.
Prediction: BYU wins the conference championship, maybe in a tie, maybe outright, but they will win it.
UNLV SHOULD finish ahead of New Mexico. UNLV gets two of the big three at home, New Mexico gets two of them on the road. The standings after this weekend will very likely be the standings at the end of the season.
Final Order:
BYU-I don't see how they lose more than 2 down the stretch, which should be enough for a conference championship: tournament-bound
UNLV-they survived a game in the Pit, no reason to think they won't beat UNM in the standings either: tournament-bound
New Mexico-they are prone to struggle on the road and travel to UNLV and BYU: tournament-bound
SDSU-tough games at New Mexico and at BYU, already two games out of first which is insurmountable given their road schedule: NIT-bound
CSU-on a roll, and coming to an easy stretch their schedule: might have a shot for the NIT, more likely to be a CIT team
Utah-should be able to take the bye this weekend and regroup, if not, they may fall behind TCU: no post-season
TCU-just haven't shown much this year for the veteran group they are: no post-season
Air Force-they have been competitive in a lot more games this year than they were last year, maybe that'll be enough to finish ahead of Wyoming: either way, they are playing in the play-in game of the conference tournament: no post-season
Wyoming-they lost to Air Force, they haven't won a road game yet and they play at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV in the back half of the schedule: no post-season
The only deviation in the second half that I see is Air Force surrounding the wagons and Wyoming falling off of the wagon. Conference tournament has no upsets in the first round. Second round will have 2 great games: BYU-SDSU and UNM-UNLV. Championship game pits New Mexico against BYU, with Jimmer winning or losing the championship game in the final minute. I say win it: they get a 3-seed in the NCAAs. Lose it: 5-seed. Take those ultra long-term predictions for what they are worth.
CSU over Wyoming: 70-60. Two very contrasting styles: CSU likes to slow the pace down, walk it up the court, grind it out in the halfcourt; Wyoming likes to run, forces you to run by pressing, and takes shots early in the shot clock. It will be interesting to see which one actually plays out: I do anticipate CSU to win, b/c they are playing better basketball right now. The win at the Huntsman Center this week should give them confidence going into this game. They won at Wyoming the first time through conference play.
New Mexico over SDSU: 76-62. There probably isn't a hotter team in the league right now that New Mexico. They had a bye on Wednesday to allow them to get rested, healthy, and prepared for this showdown in Albuquerque. The Pit should be rocking again. SDSU just hasn't found itself yet, in my opinion. They are playing well as individuals, but they just seem to be missing that team chemistry. On the road, in this league, you cannot have that and expect to win: that's why they lost at Wyoming.
UNLV over BYU: 73-68. Before this week's game, I thought BYU would pull this one out. After watching BYU play well, but not phenomenal, against TCU (with similar performances the previous two weeks), and watching UNLV clicking on all cylinders against Wyoming, I have to give the edge to UNLV. I certainly am a lot more confident BYU can win THIS game against UNLV than any game against the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack in a long time. They will need several guys to play big for this game, particularly Hartsock and Tavernari to establish an inside presence, but Emery's 3-point shooting and Haws ability to get to the basket and shoot the mid-range jumper can take some of the pressure off of Jimmer. They will need that. If they can build an early lead, they win the game. If they get behind in the game and UNLV gets behind the crowd, it's going to be an uphill battle. With all that said, this is going to be a GREAT game.
My thoughts on the second half of conference play:
BYU will lose a maximum of 3 conference games.
UNLV and New Mexico will lose a minimum of 3 conference games.
Prediction: BYU wins the conference championship, maybe in a tie, maybe outright, but they will win it.
UNLV SHOULD finish ahead of New Mexico. UNLV gets two of the big three at home, New Mexico gets two of them on the road. The standings after this weekend will very likely be the standings at the end of the season.
Final Order:
BYU-I don't see how they lose more than 2 down the stretch, which should be enough for a conference championship: tournament-bound
UNLV-they survived a game in the Pit, no reason to think they won't beat UNM in the standings either: tournament-bound
New Mexico-they are prone to struggle on the road and travel to UNLV and BYU: tournament-bound
SDSU-tough games at New Mexico and at BYU, already two games out of first which is insurmountable given their road schedule: NIT-bound
CSU-on a roll, and coming to an easy stretch their schedule: might have a shot for the NIT, more likely to be a CIT team
Utah-should be able to take the bye this weekend and regroup, if not, they may fall behind TCU: no post-season
TCU-just haven't shown much this year for the veteran group they are: no post-season
Air Force-they have been competitive in a lot more games this year than they were last year, maybe that'll be enough to finish ahead of Wyoming: either way, they are playing in the play-in game of the conference tournament: no post-season
Wyoming-they lost to Air Force, they haven't won a road game yet and they play at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV in the back half of the schedule: no post-season
The only deviation in the second half that I see is Air Force surrounding the wagons and Wyoming falling off of the wagon. Conference tournament has no upsets in the first round. Second round will have 2 great games: BYU-SDSU and UNM-UNLV. Championship game pits New Mexico against BYU, with Jimmer winning or losing the championship game in the final minute. I say win it: they get a 3-seed in the NCAAs. Lose it: 5-seed. Take those ultra long-term predictions for what they are worth.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Toughest MWC Venues
Well, with the first half of conference play over, here's a look at the toughest places to play in the conference.
BYU's Marriott Center: how can you argue against a perfect 13-0 home record? Even further, in Dave Rose's 5 seasons at the helm, only one single, solitary conference opponent has defeated BYU in the Marriott Center (last year, UNLV). That is dominance. As Coach Marty Fletcher says: they don't leave a mint on your pillow at this Marriott Center...sorry about that Mtn Network reference.
New Mexico's Pit: for opponents it seems more like the armpit. It's loud, it's nasty, the fans are right on top of the court, and when it's rocking, MWC opponents would prefer to not come a-knocking. New Mexico's lone home loss this season came at the hands of the most athletic and deep team in the MWC: UNLV. BYU almost stole a victory from them as well. UNM is as close to unbeatable as a coach could hope to be in "The Pit."
San Diego State's Cox Arena (I know it's not called that anymore, but it'll always be Cox Arena, just like Division I-AA/FCS): SDSU and Coach Fischer rarely lose at home. BYU has won there twice in a row, but they are about the only team in the league that has solved the mystery.
UNLV's Thomas & Mack Center: I think this is a tougher place to win because of how good UNLV is. However, MWC teams have a greater familiarity with the arena than any other place b/c the conference tournament is played here. In an MWC conference tournament final, this is as tough a venue as there is, but for a regular season home game, I give the difficulty edge to SDSU. And honestly, anyone who loses on their home floor to Utah THIS YEAR, can't have that great of a homecourt...50 points, at home, against CSU.
CSU's Moby Arena: CSU has amassed an 8-2 record at Moby this season. The only losses to this point are to teams in the top half of the conference. They haven't beaten any great teams at home, but they took Montana, Colorado, and Denver down (two in-state "rivals" and a traditionally decent Big Sky program). They also gave UNLV and SDSU some trouble at home, something they will not even come close to doing on the road.
TCU's Daniel-Meyer Coliseum: TCU has zero wins at home against teams with winning records. The best win is Wyoming. However, the worst loss was to Northern Colorado, who may very well end up winning the Big Sky and is currently a top 100 RPI team. The fact that they haven't lost to anybody bad is what allows me to put them ahead of Utah. This year at least. As with Wyoming, they have a pretty crummy team and still have a winning record at home. TCU's road record is 1-8.
Wyoming's Arena-Auditorium (AA): while this may not appear to be as difficult a place to play based on wins and losses, but when you factor in how poor of a team Wyoming is and how they have performed at home, it makes some sense to have them ahead of Utah. They beat two teams ahead of them in the MWC standings at home (SDSU and Utah), and had New Mexico on the ropes. Now consider this is a team that lost to Air Force, Denver, Hampton, Monmouth, and South Dakota State: 6 teams outside the top 150 in RPI (though several of those games were at home). That's a bad team to be putting up such a fight at home. Really, I should probably put them in a tie with Utah and see how the rest of the season plays out, but I'm going to take a few shots at Boylen's Runnin' Utes, because I am very much not a Boylen fan. He has way too talented a team to be sub .500, in 6th place in the conference, with 6 home losses (2 in conference when they haven't even played the 3 best teams in the Huntsman Center yet!).
Utah's Jon M. Huntsman Center: this is probably the most debatable placement of a team in the conference. After all, they beat Utah State at home and played SDSU and Oklahoma well before falling in nailbiters. But I look at the losses and the point margins. They have lost at home to 4 teams that won't even make the NIT. And 2 of those losses were by double digits. They lost to Idaho and Seattle. Last night was the icing on the cake for me. A 15-point loss in a battle for 5th place in the MWC in front of 8,000 fans (and watching the game, they must have counted everyone twice...). It's the eighth time this year they haven't even been able to score 70 points in their own building. In 13 games!
Air Force's Clune Arena: just a few short years ago this place was impossible to win at. It was one of the toughest places in the nation to win. I think they went 3 years without losing a home game. Section 8 was one of the greatest student sections west of the Mississippi. This year, they have lost to every team in the top 200 of the RPI at home. I suppose I should consider that all of their wins this season are at home, with the exception of 1 neutral site win. But come on, they have lost by over 20 points twice, and by 18 another time. They have lost at home by double digits nearly as many times as they have won at home by double digits. There is no advantage here: it allows them to beat teams that they are even with or better than, but it can't keep them close when they play a team better than them.
How would you order MWC venues in terms of difficulty to win road games?
BYU's Marriott Center: how can you argue against a perfect 13-0 home record? Even further, in Dave Rose's 5 seasons at the helm, only one single, solitary conference opponent has defeated BYU in the Marriott Center (last year, UNLV). That is dominance. As Coach Marty Fletcher says: they don't leave a mint on your pillow at this Marriott Center...sorry about that Mtn Network reference.
New Mexico's Pit: for opponents it seems more like the armpit. It's loud, it's nasty, the fans are right on top of the court, and when it's rocking, MWC opponents would prefer to not come a-knocking. New Mexico's lone home loss this season came at the hands of the most athletic and deep team in the MWC: UNLV. BYU almost stole a victory from them as well. UNM is as close to unbeatable as a coach could hope to be in "The Pit."
San Diego State's Cox Arena (I know it's not called that anymore, but it'll always be Cox Arena, just like Division I-AA/FCS): SDSU and Coach Fischer rarely lose at home. BYU has won there twice in a row, but they are about the only team in the league that has solved the mystery.
UNLV's Thomas & Mack Center: I think this is a tougher place to win because of how good UNLV is. However, MWC teams have a greater familiarity with the arena than any other place b/c the conference tournament is played here. In an MWC conference tournament final, this is as tough a venue as there is, but for a regular season home game, I give the difficulty edge to SDSU. And honestly, anyone who loses on their home floor to Utah THIS YEAR, can't have that great of a homecourt...50 points, at home, against CSU.
CSU's Moby Arena: CSU has amassed an 8-2 record at Moby this season. The only losses to this point are to teams in the top half of the conference. They haven't beaten any great teams at home, but they took Montana, Colorado, and Denver down (two in-state "rivals" and a traditionally decent Big Sky program). They also gave UNLV and SDSU some trouble at home, something they will not even come close to doing on the road.
TCU's Daniel-Meyer Coliseum: TCU has zero wins at home against teams with winning records. The best win is Wyoming. However, the worst loss was to Northern Colorado, who may very well end up winning the Big Sky and is currently a top 100 RPI team. The fact that they haven't lost to anybody bad is what allows me to put them ahead of Utah. This year at least. As with Wyoming, they have a pretty crummy team and still have a winning record at home. TCU's road record is 1-8.
Wyoming's Arena-Auditorium (AA): while this may not appear to be as difficult a place to play based on wins and losses, but when you factor in how poor of a team Wyoming is and how they have performed at home, it makes some sense to have them ahead of Utah. They beat two teams ahead of them in the MWC standings at home (SDSU and Utah), and had New Mexico on the ropes. Now consider this is a team that lost to Air Force, Denver, Hampton, Monmouth, and South Dakota State: 6 teams outside the top 150 in RPI (though several of those games were at home). That's a bad team to be putting up such a fight at home. Really, I should probably put them in a tie with Utah and see how the rest of the season plays out, but I'm going to take a few shots at Boylen's Runnin' Utes, because I am very much not a Boylen fan. He has way too talented a team to be sub .500, in 6th place in the conference, with 6 home losses (2 in conference when they haven't even played the 3 best teams in the Huntsman Center yet!).
Utah's Jon M. Huntsman Center: this is probably the most debatable placement of a team in the conference. After all, they beat Utah State at home and played SDSU and Oklahoma well before falling in nailbiters. But I look at the losses and the point margins. They have lost at home to 4 teams that won't even make the NIT. And 2 of those losses were by double digits. They lost to Idaho and Seattle. Last night was the icing on the cake for me. A 15-point loss in a battle for 5th place in the MWC in front of 8,000 fans (and watching the game, they must have counted everyone twice...). It's the eighth time this year they haven't even been able to score 70 points in their own building. In 13 games!
Air Force's Clune Arena: just a few short years ago this place was impossible to win at. It was one of the toughest places in the nation to win. I think they went 3 years without losing a home game. Section 8 was one of the greatest student sections west of the Mississippi. This year, they have lost to every team in the top 200 of the RPI at home. I suppose I should consider that all of their wins this season are at home, with the exception of 1 neutral site win. But come on, they have lost by over 20 points twice, and by 18 another time. They have lost at home by double digits nearly as many times as they have won at home by double digits. There is no advantage here: it allows them to beat teams that they are even with or better than, but it can't keep them close when they play a team better than them.
How would you order MWC venues in terms of difficulty to win road games?
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Bad night for Mo-zer
Well, tonight the quality prognostication came to an end. The long streak of good picks was bound to miss a beat eventually. I vastly overestimated Utah. Come on, 50 points in a single game. At home. Against the 5th place team in the MWC. Jimmer can practically do that by himself. On the road. Against the 1st place team in the Pac-10.
UNLV was also a little bit more dominant over Wyoming than I thought. The game, however, was still enough to wear them down somewhat and give BYU a definite freshness edge come Saturday. Wyoming makes you run the whole game. They full-court press you on D and run the fast break offense on the other end. At some points during the game it looked like a "suicide" drill with all the up-backs they were doing. Unfortunately for BYU, the game was only in doubt for about 30 minutes before the Rebels stretched the lead to 20. Still, UNLV won't get home from Laramie until late, late Wednesday night, maybe early, early Thursday morning. BYU, on the other hand, took today off and will practice tomorrow. UNLV relies on their energy and, at home, on the energy of the crowd. Should be a good one.
UNLV was also a little bit more dominant over Wyoming than I thought. The game, however, was still enough to wear them down somewhat and give BYU a definite freshness edge come Saturday. Wyoming makes you run the whole game. They full-court press you on D and run the fast break offense on the other end. At some points during the game it looked like a "suicide" drill with all the up-backs they were doing. Unfortunately for BYU, the game was only in doubt for about 30 minutes before the Rebels stretched the lead to 20. Still, UNLV won't get home from Laramie until late, late Wednesday night, maybe early, early Thursday morning. BYU, on the other hand, took today off and will practice tomorrow. UNLV relies on their energy and, at home, on the energy of the crowd. Should be a good one.
A Guest Commentary on the BYU Recruiting Luncheon
This year is one of, if not the, best football recruiting class in the history of BYU. There were several noteworthy things about the class, but my favorite part was: no surprises. My father attended the luncheon, highlighting the class. Here are his notes from the meeting:
I just returned from a Cougar Club luncheon at the stadium; easily 500 people there. After a nice lunch we had a film showing each recruit's highlight plays. Coach Mendenhall spoke for about half an hour and then Coach Tidwell (head of recruiting) answered questions for another half hour. None of the recruits were there, although four of them are in school.
Having attended three of these I noticed the differences immediately. First of all, with 11 wins and an impressive bowl victory over a good Pac 10 team the enthusiasm in the room was at a high level. You could feel the excitement. Bronco, on his video presention, pointed out that BYU was one of seven schools in the country that had been ranked in the final poll four straight years and one of four teams to win ten or more games each of the last four years. ( As a side line it was announced later that BYU is the only school in the country whose football and basketball teams have won 75% of their games the last four years.) Also, for the fifth year in a row we had a freshman all American. Another difference noted, last year Bronco was defending himself during his presentation; this year he did not have to. He isn't under the same criticism this year. And there was no mention of stars this year, an obvious difference from last year, when the lack of high star athletes was defended.
BYU has signed acceptance from 27 players; the NCAA allows 25 per year, but 4 of these players are going on missions before enrolling at BYU. There are also 8 players returning from their missions; 3 or 4 are home and the others will be back before the fall camp begins. That means that of 80 players on scholarship, 31 will be new this year; almost 40% of the players will not have been on the team last year.
The 27 recruits were from all over the country with 11 of them being from Utah. Half of those were ranked in the top 15 players in Utah. It seemed like a great recruiting class as time after time on the video we were told that the player was in the top 15 in the country at his position and a few even in the top ten. And we even have a running back that ran a 4.39 on a track in Alabama with electronic timing. When asked if he looked that fast, Tidwell said at least that fast. Also of interest, I did not notice one JC recruit which is a symbol of a strong program in good shape with their current players. There were some non Mormons that signed, including one from Arizona whose father has box seats at Sun Devil Stadium. He was Catholic I believe and was offered a scholarship by ASU. His parents came with him on his visit here and told him they wanted him to come here. They loved the school. There was also a non Mormon running back, I think from California, that is coming and is already in school. He has had his dreadlocks cut off to enroll. As expected the recruits all came from programs with great records, many of whom finished near the top in their state. It is always important to have kids on your team who expect to win because that is all they have ever done. Austin Ainge, a former basketball player at BYU and son of Danny Ainge, referred a player from Massachusetts which they signed. They also got a recruit from Georgia and Alabama from referrals. I think every recruit had at least two offers from BCS schools which is a little bit of a change from previous years. But then Jake Heaps, the #1 rated high school QB from Washington, got on the phone on his own and recruited players he knew to come here.
If you were a BYU fan, it was definitely a red meat day. The Cougar Club room was overflowing (another difference from last year), the excitement could not be missed, and the attitude from those asking questions was markedly different. But then it was a top 25 recruiting class for BYU.
I just returned from a Cougar Club luncheon at the stadium; easily 500 people there. After a nice lunch we had a film showing each recruit's highlight plays. Coach Mendenhall spoke for about half an hour and then Coach Tidwell (head of recruiting) answered questions for another half hour. None of the recruits were there, although four of them are in school.
Having attended three of these I noticed the differences immediately. First of all, with 11 wins and an impressive bowl victory over a good Pac 10 team the enthusiasm in the room was at a high level. You could feel the excitement. Bronco, on his video presention, pointed out that BYU was one of seven schools in the country that had been ranked in the final poll four straight years and one of four teams to win ten or more games each of the last four years. ( As a side line it was announced later that BYU is the only school in the country whose football and basketball teams have won 75% of their games the last four years.) Also, for the fifth year in a row we had a freshman all American. Another difference noted, last year Bronco was defending himself during his presentation; this year he did not have to. He isn't under the same criticism this year. And there was no mention of stars this year, an obvious difference from last year, when the lack of high star athletes was defended.
BYU has signed acceptance from 27 players; the NCAA allows 25 per year, but 4 of these players are going on missions before enrolling at BYU. There are also 8 players returning from their missions; 3 or 4 are home and the others will be back before the fall camp begins. That means that of 80 players on scholarship, 31 will be new this year; almost 40% of the players will not have been on the team last year.
The 27 recruits were from all over the country with 11 of them being from Utah. Half of those were ranked in the top 15 players in Utah. It seemed like a great recruiting class as time after time on the video we were told that the player was in the top 15 in the country at his position and a few even in the top ten. And we even have a running back that ran a 4.39 on a track in Alabama with electronic timing. When asked if he looked that fast, Tidwell said at least that fast. Also of interest, I did not notice one JC recruit which is a symbol of a strong program in good shape with their current players. There were some non Mormons that signed, including one from Arizona whose father has box seats at Sun Devil Stadium. He was Catholic I believe and was offered a scholarship by ASU. His parents came with him on his visit here and told him they wanted him to come here. They loved the school. There was also a non Mormon running back, I think from California, that is coming and is already in school. He has had his dreadlocks cut off to enroll. As expected the recruits all came from programs with great records, many of whom finished near the top in their state. It is always important to have kids on your team who expect to win because that is all they have ever done. Austin Ainge, a former basketball player at BYU and son of Danny Ainge, referred a player from Massachusetts which they signed. They also got a recruit from Georgia and Alabama from referrals. I think every recruit had at least two offers from BCS schools which is a little bit of a change from previous years. But then Jake Heaps, the #1 rated high school QB from Washington, got on the phone on his own and recruited players he knew to come here.
If you were a BYU fan, it was definitely a red meat day. The Cougar Club room was overflowing (another difference from last year), the excitement could not be missed, and the attitude from those asking questions was markedly different. But then it was a top 25 recruiting class for BYU.
Monday, February 1, 2010
MWC in the first week of February
Well, the first half of the conference season finishes up on Wednesday night with an 8pm game between UNLV and Wyoming. There weren't a whole lot of surprises so far. I think everybody expected the top 4 to be fairly close, followed by the next four who haven't distinguished themselves from each other yet, followed by Air Force. Anyway, I'll talk some more about the first half of the conference season once it is actually completed. For now, the weekday games for the MWC this first week of February.
Air Force (1-6) is fresh off its first MWC win in two years. Now they have to travel to the third most difficult location to win in the conference at SDSU (4-3). It doesn't help that SDSU absolutely cannot afford to play anything resembling a close game. Too bad Air Force can't start a winning streak. I fully expect the Aztecs to take care of business. As usual against Air Force, there is a feeling out process, but after 10 minutes or so I think they will lock down defensively and use their size and speed advantage. SDSU 70, Air Force 55.
Colorado State (3-4) heads to Salt Lake to battle the Utes (3-4) for 5th place. Utah will be without its best offensive player, Marshall Henderson, for the game for his mandatory one-game suspension. I wonder how the Utes will respond after falling below .500 for the first time this late in the season since Giacoletti's last season back 4 years ago. I know how Jay Watkins is going to respond, but I wonder about the rest of this teammates. In the comeback bid against BYU, one can't help but wonder: where was Carlon Brown? Where was Luka Drca? Where was Kim Tillie? What happened to the upper classmen? It was all Watkins and Henderson. If they had to come back tonight and play just about anybody in the conference besides CSU, I think they'd lose. Luckily for them they are playing a team that is having more trouble scoring than Utah is. Utes take this in one of the lowest scoring MWC games not involving Air Force this season. Utah 64, CSU 57.
UNLV (5-2) travels to Laramie for the final game of "season 1" of MWC play. Laramie has been a tough place for a lot of teams this season. UNLV definitely needs the win to stay off the bubble, but more importantly, they need it to keep pace with New Mexico who has already finished their first 8 conference games at 6-2. Wyoming (2-5) has already played 2 of the top 4 at home and beat SDSU and lost a close one to New Mexico. This should be a game. UNLV is without Derrick Jasper, who in my mind has been a huge disappointment anyway this season. It hurts their depth, obviously. Normally in this case I would anticipate a good game, with UNLV pulling away late with their fresher bodies. Without Jasper, I think they'll need to build a sizeable lead early to pull this one out. UNLV gets the job done: 78-69. I think this effectively ends Wyoming's season. I don't see how they can get more than 2 or 3 more wins this year.
BYU (6-1) hosts TCU (2-5). The schedule couldn't have set up nicer for BYU. They get a Tuesday night home game before Saturday's showdown at UNLV while the Rebels have to travel to Laramie for the late game on Wednesday. That essentially gives BYU a 1.5 day edge on UNLV as far as rest and preparation are concerned. They also get a lighter opponent. There is no question that BYU wins the game, the question becomes what will we see from the Cougars? Will somebody else step up and score some points? Will the bench players show enough consistency to earn 10-15 minutes in this game? I don't blame Coach Rose: with what Morgan, Davies, and Loyd have done in those 3 games, they don't deserve playing time. I am curious why those three in particular are slumping so much right now? Maybe they aren't slumping, maybe they just look like amateurs compared to what Jimmer is doing right now. This game is more interesting b/c BYU needs to get a few things clicking before going to Vegas, and not so much because of the outcome of the game. I think BYU will get as many as 5 guys in double figures (I think Jimmer will probably barely get there this game). BYU 82, TCU 61. The Horned Frogs have been having a lot of trouble scoring lately, and a trip to the Marriott Center doesn't usually help that...
What do you all think? What thoughts do you have for how these games will play out? Also, who scores in double figures for BYU?
Air Force (1-6) is fresh off its first MWC win in two years. Now they have to travel to the third most difficult location to win in the conference at SDSU (4-3). It doesn't help that SDSU absolutely cannot afford to play anything resembling a close game. Too bad Air Force can't start a winning streak. I fully expect the Aztecs to take care of business. As usual against Air Force, there is a feeling out process, but after 10 minutes or so I think they will lock down defensively and use their size and speed advantage. SDSU 70, Air Force 55.
Colorado State (3-4) heads to Salt Lake to battle the Utes (3-4) for 5th place. Utah will be without its best offensive player, Marshall Henderson, for the game for his mandatory one-game suspension. I wonder how the Utes will respond after falling below .500 for the first time this late in the season since Giacoletti's last season back 4 years ago. I know how Jay Watkins is going to respond, but I wonder about the rest of this teammates. In the comeback bid against BYU, one can't help but wonder: where was Carlon Brown? Where was Luka Drca? Where was Kim Tillie? What happened to the upper classmen? It was all Watkins and Henderson. If they had to come back tonight and play just about anybody in the conference besides CSU, I think they'd lose. Luckily for them they are playing a team that is having more trouble scoring than Utah is. Utes take this in one of the lowest scoring MWC games not involving Air Force this season. Utah 64, CSU 57.
UNLV (5-2) travels to Laramie for the final game of "season 1" of MWC play. Laramie has been a tough place for a lot of teams this season. UNLV definitely needs the win to stay off the bubble, but more importantly, they need it to keep pace with New Mexico who has already finished their first 8 conference games at 6-2. Wyoming (2-5) has already played 2 of the top 4 at home and beat SDSU and lost a close one to New Mexico. This should be a game. UNLV is without Derrick Jasper, who in my mind has been a huge disappointment anyway this season. It hurts their depth, obviously. Normally in this case I would anticipate a good game, with UNLV pulling away late with their fresher bodies. Without Jasper, I think they'll need to build a sizeable lead early to pull this one out. UNLV gets the job done: 78-69. I think this effectively ends Wyoming's season. I don't see how they can get more than 2 or 3 more wins this year.
BYU (6-1) hosts TCU (2-5). The schedule couldn't have set up nicer for BYU. They get a Tuesday night home game before Saturday's showdown at UNLV while the Rebels have to travel to Laramie for the late game on Wednesday. That essentially gives BYU a 1.5 day edge on UNLV as far as rest and preparation are concerned. They also get a lighter opponent. There is no question that BYU wins the game, the question becomes what will we see from the Cougars? Will somebody else step up and score some points? Will the bench players show enough consistency to earn 10-15 minutes in this game? I don't blame Coach Rose: with what Morgan, Davies, and Loyd have done in those 3 games, they don't deserve playing time. I am curious why those three in particular are slumping so much right now? Maybe they aren't slumping, maybe they just look like amateurs compared to what Jimmer is doing right now. This game is more interesting b/c BYU needs to get a few things clicking before going to Vegas, and not so much because of the outcome of the game. I think BYU will get as many as 5 guys in double figures (I think Jimmer will probably barely get there this game). BYU 82, TCU 61. The Horned Frogs have been having a lot of trouble scoring lately, and a trip to the Marriott Center doesn't usually help that...
What do you all think? What thoughts do you have for how these games will play out? Also, who scores in double figures for BYU?
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