New Mexico:
New Mexico has to be pleased with their season: they won the conference championship and an NCAA Tournament game, and Lobo's were awarded MWC Coach and Player of the Year. They won 30 games. They were a solid team that figured out how to win close games on pretty much every occasion, except the MWC Tourney semis against SDSU even with the men in stripes trying to keep them in the game...
If NBA defections don't hit them hard (Dairese Gary and Darington Hobson), they should be poised for another run next year. Roman Martinez is the only loss to graduation. Albeit, I think he truly was the crux of the team and his loss will be SIGNIFICANT, much more so than the loss of Hobson or Gary would be. He may not have hit the game-winning shots or made game-winning defensive stops, but without his performance throughout the games, they would not have been in position for those plays to be made by Gary and Hobson. They have a few incoming freshmen that look like they are going to be able to contribute early and often for them, including a big man down low who is rated the 6th best Center in the country and is an ESPN top 100 player. They have two shaky commitments from players that are supposed to be high quality, but until they solidly commit/sign, those two are unknown. New Mexico doesn't NEED them, but it's always nice to have solid 11th and 12th guys on your roster, just in case.
The one concern I have for them next season is the law of averages: this season, they won 3 or 4 games they easily could have lost. They struggled to put opponents away and never really blew anybody out. Maybe part of that was youth, maybe part of that was motivation, maybe part of that is that Alford (and his team for that matter) lacks character and the basketball gods were punishing him. Either way, the longer you let teams hang with you, the more confidence they have and anything can happen with a one-possession game in the final minute. I certainly think they will be an NCAA Tournament team. I am not as confident in their ability to repeat as champions. You could see the last 4 or 5 games of the season, they didn't play as well with the target on their backs as they did as the upstart, underdog looking for respect. They will have to play the entire season next year with that target. If either Hobson or Gary leave for the NBA, I think their chances for a conference championship are definitely gone. A trip to the NCAA Tournament would be in jeopardy as well.
UNLV:
UNLV should be disappointed with their season, they definitely underachieved. They should have competed for a conference championship, but finished 3 games behind champion New Mexico and were 2 games out of 2nd place. Add to that a loss at home in the MWC Tournament and a first-round exit from the NCAAs, and they can't feel like they had the type of season they had hoped for. They did lose a starter to injury midway through the conference season, but two losses to THIS YEAR'S Utah team is inexcusable, no matter what your injury situation was.
They bring a solid core of players back from the team that played Sweet 16-bound and KU-Upsetter Northern Iowa tough in the tourney (8 of the 10 in their rotation) plus Derrick Jasper, who started for 21 games of the season, will return from his knee injury. So they have 9 solid players. With their up-tempo, aggressive, attacking style of play, 9 players probably won't be enough to sustain them for a 30-game grind. In addition, several teams will have the confidence to give them a run for their money at the Thomas & Mack (BYU nearly knocked them off in the MWC Tourney, SDSU did knock them off in the MWC Tourney, and Utah went 1-1 against them at the T&M). In the 5-year history of the 9-team MWC, the conference champion has never lost more than 1 conference home game, and twice the champ has been undefeated at home. Considering that they have only won ONE MWC conference championship in 11 years, I think it unlikely they can pull it off next year with SDSU on the rise, BYU returning 8 solid players from a 30-win team, and New Mexico defending its title while returning 9 of 10 players.
SDSU:
SDSU really got things going late in the year. They shut down UNLV on their home floor in the conference championship game. They nearly pulled off the upset of eventually Elite Eight-bound Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They had the most dominating freshman in the conference. They have the most decorated coach in the conference. They played most of the year without one of their top 8 players, Tim Shelton, who should return from his injury next season after playing in only 9 games this year. They lost Billy White twice to sprained ankles and still managed to beat conference champion New Mexico by 10 without him. If they had started the year better, they could have been positioned for a better showing in the NCAA Tournament. The loss at Saint Mary's looked a lot better after their Sweet 16 run, at Pacific and at Wyoming were both pathetic no matter how you dice it, and the loss to Arizona State isn't embarrassing, but it's a game they would have liked to get. All in all, they did about as well as they were supposed to, but it took a late-season surge to get there.
The main problem with them winning a conference championship is by far their biggest disadvantage, and one that they can't do anything about, no matter what kind of players they recruit: altitude. New Mexico, BYU, Utah, CSU, Air Force, and Wyoming are all up above 4,200 feet above sea level. This year, where they lacked depth anyway, it was a problem. They beat New Mexico TWICE when the games weren't played at over 5,300 feet in Albuquerque. Next year could be Fisher's best SDSU team yet, but he needs a deeper team to win a conference championship. If the incoming freshmen play well and Shelton stays healthy, they might just have the depth they need. SDSU's freshmen always play well.
The MWC preseason media and coaches poll will probably place these three the same as they finished this year: New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU but I don't think it will play out that way. BYU is going to be the wild card as they sustain the heaviest losses of the top 4. I'm certainly not ruling BYU as a contender (you can't rule anybody out who has only lost 4 home games in the past 5 seasons), but I'm going to put them as the least likely of the 4 to win the MWC as of today. I'll need to see how the Collinsworth brothers play before I can make a solid prediction on how BYU is able to do next year. The BYU 2010-2011 men's basketball preview is still to come.
MWC Preseason Poll probably looks like this:
1. New Mexico
2. UNLV
3. BYU
4. SDSU
5. CSU
6. Utah
7. Wyoming
8. TCU
9. Air Force
Without seeing the schedules, seeing who transfers from their school or leaves for the NBA, knowing how good the new kids are, or how out-of-shape return missionaries are, I think next year's MWC probably ends up like this:
1. SDSU
2. BYU
3. New Mexico
4. UNLV
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Air Force
9. TCU
I am higher on SDSU and BYU and lower on UNLV and Utah than the MWC idiots will be. I don't think any of those who finished in the bottom 5 this year are going to be capable of breaking into the top 4 next year. There is not enough talent to make a sustained run through the MWC with an above .500 record. Maybe CSU breaks through, but I doubt it: they lost to everyone ahead of them in the standings TWICE. Until they can beat one of the big 4 in a single game, I don't see how they can beat any of them in the standings. Wyoming will be better than Utah because of coaching and attrition (Utah is losing 2 players to graduation, and 3 or 4 players will likely transfer out of the program) and Air Force jumps up a slot ahead of TCU (maybe even two slots if Utah gets hit really hard with transfers).
I like Jimmer to be named as preseason player of the year. Alford or Kruger will probably be preseason coach of the year. David Foster at Utah as preseason defensive player of the year. I really like Foster. I just wish he had a good coach who could let him flourish, develop, and lead instead of one who constantly holds his players back with his antics and tries to be the team captain instead of the coach.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Thus It Endeth
Well, the "banner" year for the MWC ended with a thud in the NCAA Tournament. As I stated earlier, the conference would go 2-4, with UNLV and SDSU bowing out in round 1 and with New Mexico and BYU both dropping second round games to BCS conference opponents (and both lost by double-digits against that BCS conference foe). I suppose MWC fans can find solace in the fact that all of the teams that beat them are in the Sweet 16, ie. at least they lost to 4 really good teams. Georgetown can't really say that, now can they?
No matter how you look at it, the MWC is closer to the big boys than they have been in the past. The top 4 teams are improving. The bottom 5, however, aren't helping the top 4 get tournament-ready.
Congrats to BYU on getting their first NCAA Tournament win in 17 years. Congrats to New Mexico on their successful return to the tournament, at least until they lost to a double-digit seed by double-digits. Congrats to UNLV for losing to a team that was good enough to beat Kansas. Congrats to SDSU for their return to the tournament (their 6th appearance ever) and giving Tennessee all they wanted.
Later this week I'll post a BRIEF recap of each MWC team's season and the outlook for next year (with a long recap and outlook for BYU).
No matter how you look at it, the MWC is closer to the big boys than they have been in the past. The top 4 teams are improving. The bottom 5, however, aren't helping the top 4 get tournament-ready.
Congrats to BYU on getting their first NCAA Tournament win in 17 years. Congrats to New Mexico on their successful return to the tournament, at least until they lost to a double-digit seed by double-digits. Congrats to UNLV for losing to a team that was good enough to beat Kansas. Congrats to SDSU for their return to the tournament (their 6th appearance ever) and giving Tennessee all they wanted.
Later this week I'll post a BRIEF recap of each MWC team's season and the outlook for next year (with a long recap and outlook for BYU).
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
1st Round MWC Predictions
New Mexico dispatches Montana, 72-61. Not much to say here. If New Mexico isn't ahead by double-digits late in the game, well, they might just not win this one. They will, though, by at least 10.
BYU controls the tempo and knocks Florida from their first tourney since back-to-back titles 3 years ago, 76-69. I am not confident in BYU's margin of victory, but I am supremely confident in their victory. Unlike previous 1st round exits, BYU is CLEARLY the better team in the matchup. Florida does not have a dominant big man that will rebound and score whenever he feels like it, they don't have a lights out 3-point shooter that can get hot and go on a run all by himself, and they don't have a slashing point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants and has a pull-up J to boot. Those are the 3 types of players that have taken over the games and beat BYU the last 3 years. Florida has none of the above.
UNLV drops one to Northern Iowa. I think the Panthers will be a little rusty out of the gate, having not played in nearly two weeks, but UNLV is coming off a frantic 3 games in 3 days and will run out of gas. UNI is great in the halfcourt and will be able to turn the Runnin' Rebels into the can't get out in transition at all Rebels. UNI 54, UNLV 48.
SDSU puts up a noble effort, but Tennessee is just a superior team. This one certainly could be an upset, but I don't like SDSU's ability down the stretch to make plays. In a tight game, they often run out of gas playing only 7 guys, miss free throws (under 70% on the season), and get lazy on the boards. Add in the nerves these guys will be feeling in their first NCAA Tourney game, and it's tough to imagine a scenario where they can win on this big stage. Tennessee pulls away late, 68-60. If they can find a solid PG, I like SDSU's chances next year, however.
I'm open to your arguments, disagreements, predictions, etc. I think I'm right. UNLV gets upset, BYU and New Mexico do not, and SDSU falls in a valiant effort.
BYU controls the tempo and knocks Florida from their first tourney since back-to-back titles 3 years ago, 76-69. I am not confident in BYU's margin of victory, but I am supremely confident in their victory. Unlike previous 1st round exits, BYU is CLEARLY the better team in the matchup. Florida does not have a dominant big man that will rebound and score whenever he feels like it, they don't have a lights out 3-point shooter that can get hot and go on a run all by himself, and they don't have a slashing point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants and has a pull-up J to boot. Those are the 3 types of players that have taken over the games and beat BYU the last 3 years. Florida has none of the above.
UNLV drops one to Northern Iowa. I think the Panthers will be a little rusty out of the gate, having not played in nearly two weeks, but UNLV is coming off a frantic 3 games in 3 days and will run out of gas. UNI is great in the halfcourt and will be able to turn the Runnin' Rebels into the can't get out in transition at all Rebels. UNI 54, UNLV 48.
SDSU puts up a noble effort, but Tennessee is just a superior team. This one certainly could be an upset, but I don't like SDSU's ability down the stretch to make plays. In a tight game, they often run out of gas playing only 7 guys, miss free throws (under 70% on the season), and get lazy on the boards. Add in the nerves these guys will be feeling in their first NCAA Tourney game, and it's tough to imagine a scenario where they can win on this big stage. Tennessee pulls away late, 68-60. If they can find a solid PG, I like SDSU's chances next year, however.
I'm open to your arguments, disagreements, predictions, etc. I think I'm right. UNLV gets upset, BYU and New Mexico do not, and SDSU falls in a valiant effort.
MWC NCAA Outlook
New Mexico:
Seed: 3
1st Round Opponent: Montana
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Marquette or Washington
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: West Virginia
How Far CAN They Go: There is no reason this team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16. They could even beat West Virginia. They were a fade-away bank 3-pointer at the buzzer from being being a 3 seed themselves. If they manage to make the elite 8, Wisconsin will end their run towards the Final Four.
How Far WILL They Go: I think they likely get eliminated in the Second Round. They've been able to win close games against MWC opponents. No offense to BYU, UNLV, and SDSU, but Marquette is much better at closing out close games. Washington has shown resilience in non-road games as well.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: New Mexico has had a lot of trouble dispatching inferior competition over the past 3 weeks. If things are close down the stretch, we all have seen how Montana's Anthony Johnson can take over a game in the closing minutes: he scored his team's last 20 points in a come-from-behind win at Weber State in the Big Sky championship game. The same Weber State team that clobbered the Utah team that New Mexico struggled against. Confused yet? Anyway, we are long overdue for a 3-seed upset in the first round (historically it happens 2 out of every 3 years and it's been 3 years since the last one).
BYU:
Seed: 7
1st Round Opponent: Florida
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: K-State or Kansas State or the Wildcats from Kansas State University
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Minnesota
How Far CAN They Go: After getting over the frustration of another under-seeding in the NCAA Tournament, I looked at the 10's and the 2's in the NCAA Tournament and I think BYU scored. Florida is the 10 they matchup with the best, and Kansas State is the 2 that BYU has the best chance of beating (no way they could stop Evan Turner, Scottie Reynolds, or De'Sean Butler). If they can get past Florida and K-State, it would set up an intriguing matchup with Minnesota, whose starting center is the son of Ralph Sampson Jr, who played at the University of Virginia in 1981 and practically single-handedly knocked Danny Ainge and the BYU Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament during their biggest, most magical run ever in the Tourney. Playing K-State in Oklahoma may appear to be a homecourt advantage for K-State, however, with Kansas playing the game immediately following, a lot of KU fans could be there to cheer AGAINST K-State. I think at best, it's a neutral court. BYU could get to the Elite Eight and try to exact revenge on the Syracuse McNamaras, I mean, Orange, in Salt Lake City. With their ability to shoot the 3 against the 2-3 zone, a win there isn't out of the realm of possibilities. This is all a theoretical exercise. They COULD get to the Final Four. I'm not a nut: the Wall Street Journal and a writer from SI predicted this. Joe Lunardi has BYU in the Elite Eight. (A lot of the other "experts" have a first-round exit, however.)
How Far WILL They Go: I look to see them get to Saturday this time around and falling to the foul-mouthed Frank Martin and his K-State Wildcats.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: They haven't done it in the last 7 tries, spanning 18 years. The 7 seed loses roughly one out of every 3 games, so BYU is a likely candidate to make sure that holds true.
UNLV:
Seed: 8
1st Round Opponent: Northern Iowa
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldridge, the Morris Twins, Xavier (Zavi-ay) Henry
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Michigan State
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round
How Far WILL They Go: First Round Exit
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Northern Iowa's strength matches up with UNLV's strength: their halfcourt O. The reason UNLV can beat a team like BYU 8 consecutive times at home is because BYU isn't as efficient in the halfcourt offense. The Panthers excel in the halfcourt, and they prefer the grind it out, bore you into submission type of game: kind of like the Utah Utes, but with talented players and a good coach.
SDSU:
Seed: 11
1st Round Opponent: Tennessee
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Georgetown or Ohio
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Ohio State, maybe Georgia Tech
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round against Georgetown, but they have no answer for the big-bodied Monroe for the Hoyas. I'm not sure anybody does besides KU.
How Far WILL They Go: They already are as far as they are going.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Tennessee has the best collection of wins of anybody outside of the top 2 seeds and Purdue. They are well-coached, they've been there before, and even if Billy White stops Wayne Chism, there are several other scoring options that SDSU won't be able to slow down. Maybe next year, SDSU.
Overall: 2-4
First Round: 2-2
Second Round: 0-2
Well, this was a "banner" year for the conference, but it sure has a ways to go...I hope they prove me wrong (at least BYU and SDSU, I hope UNLV and New Mexico get obliterated in the first round).
Seed: 3
1st Round Opponent: Montana
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Marquette or Washington
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: West Virginia
How Far CAN They Go: There is no reason this team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16. They could even beat West Virginia. They were a fade-away bank 3-pointer at the buzzer from being being a 3 seed themselves. If they manage to make the elite 8, Wisconsin will end their run towards the Final Four.
How Far WILL They Go: I think they likely get eliminated in the Second Round. They've been able to win close games against MWC opponents. No offense to BYU, UNLV, and SDSU, but Marquette is much better at closing out close games. Washington has shown resilience in non-road games as well.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: New Mexico has had a lot of trouble dispatching inferior competition over the past 3 weeks. If things are close down the stretch, we all have seen how Montana's Anthony Johnson can take over a game in the closing minutes: he scored his team's last 20 points in a come-from-behind win at Weber State in the Big Sky championship game. The same Weber State team that clobbered the Utah team that New Mexico struggled against. Confused yet? Anyway, we are long overdue for a 3-seed upset in the first round (historically it happens 2 out of every 3 years and it's been 3 years since the last one).
BYU:
Seed: 7
1st Round Opponent: Florida
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: K-State or Kansas State or the Wildcats from Kansas State University
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Minnesota
How Far CAN They Go: After getting over the frustration of another under-seeding in the NCAA Tournament, I looked at the 10's and the 2's in the NCAA Tournament and I think BYU scored. Florida is the 10 they matchup with the best, and Kansas State is the 2 that BYU has the best chance of beating (no way they could stop Evan Turner, Scottie Reynolds, or De'Sean Butler). If they can get past Florida and K-State, it would set up an intriguing matchup with Minnesota, whose starting center is the son of Ralph Sampson Jr, who played at the University of Virginia in 1981 and practically single-handedly knocked Danny Ainge and the BYU Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament during their biggest, most magical run ever in the Tourney. Playing K-State in Oklahoma may appear to be a homecourt advantage for K-State, however, with Kansas playing the game immediately following, a lot of KU fans could be there to cheer AGAINST K-State. I think at best, it's a neutral court. BYU could get to the Elite Eight and try to exact revenge on the Syracuse McNamaras, I mean, Orange, in Salt Lake City. With their ability to shoot the 3 against the 2-3 zone, a win there isn't out of the realm of possibilities. This is all a theoretical exercise. They COULD get to the Final Four. I'm not a nut: the Wall Street Journal and a writer from SI predicted this. Joe Lunardi has BYU in the Elite Eight. (A lot of the other "experts" have a first-round exit, however.)
How Far WILL They Go: I look to see them get to Saturday this time around and falling to the foul-mouthed Frank Martin and his K-State Wildcats.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: They haven't done it in the last 7 tries, spanning 18 years. The 7 seed loses roughly one out of every 3 games, so BYU is a likely candidate to make sure that holds true.
UNLV:
Seed: 8
1st Round Opponent: Northern Iowa
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldridge, the Morris Twins, Xavier (Zavi-ay) Henry
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Michigan State
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round
How Far WILL They Go: First Round Exit
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Northern Iowa's strength matches up with UNLV's strength: their halfcourt O. The reason UNLV can beat a team like BYU 8 consecutive times at home is because BYU isn't as efficient in the halfcourt offense. The Panthers excel in the halfcourt, and they prefer the grind it out, bore you into submission type of game: kind of like the Utah Utes, but with talented players and a good coach.
SDSU:
Seed: 11
1st Round Opponent: Tennessee
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Georgetown or Ohio
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Ohio State, maybe Georgia Tech
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round against Georgetown, but they have no answer for the big-bodied Monroe for the Hoyas. I'm not sure anybody does besides KU.
How Far WILL They Go: They already are as far as they are going.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Tennessee has the best collection of wins of anybody outside of the top 2 seeds and Purdue. They are well-coached, they've been there before, and even if Billy White stops Wayne Chism, there are several other scoring options that SDSU won't be able to slow down. Maybe next year, SDSU.
Overall: 2-4
First Round: 2-2
Second Round: 0-2
Well, this was a "banner" year for the conference, but it sure has a ways to go...I hope they prove me wrong (at least BYU and SDSU, I hope UNLV and New Mexico get obliterated in the first round).
Monday, March 15, 2010
Knowing is Half the Battle
The other half is actually filling the bracket out. That's usually a whole war's-worth of battles anyway...
Here's a quick look at seeds 1-4:
No. 1 seeds:
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Who got screwed: Kansas. They get a very talented non-BCS school in round two, whether that be UNLV or Northern Iowa. Then, they would play last year's runner-up in Michigan State or Greivis Vazquez and the Maryland Terps, coached by a future Hall of Famer. In the Elite 8, they could match up with Big Ten Regular Season and Tournament Champion Ohio State, Big East Tournament Runner-up Georgetown, or giant-slayer (and previous winner of a head-to-head game) Tennessee.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: tough to argue with any of these 4 teams. You have the best two teams in the country who won their conferences and their conference tournaments with Kansas and Kentucky, the ACC regular season and tournament champion with Duke, and the team that won the toughest conference in America (by TWO games!) with Syracuse.
Who doesn't make the Final Four: Syracuse. They overachieved all season (except in the Big East tourney or that exhibition game they lost prior to the season). Or Kansas because of the potential difficulty of their road. Or Duke, simply because they are Duke. Any of the other 1 seeds would DEFINITELY make it through to Indianapolis in the South Regional. I wouldn't be surprised to see only one or two survive through to the Final Four: I would be stunned if all four made it (by the bye, only one time in the history of the 64/65-team field has all four number one seeds made the Final Four).
No. 2 seeds:
Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Villanova
Who got screwed: West Virginia. How does a top 10 ranked Big East Tournament Champion not get a 1 seed? Well, the problem is: all of the 1 seeds were VERY deserving of 1 seeds.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Villanova. The late-season collapse of Jay Wright's squad is baffling. Even more baffling: that the Selection Committee didn't punish them more for dropping 5 of their last 7 games.
Who makes the Final Four: I'm tempted to say Villanova. I don't think they will get pushed/tested until the Regional Final against Duke, with whom they match up very well. It's tough to pick against West Virginia given what they did in the Big East Tourney, but what if one of those crazy shots by "The Butler" didn't go in?
No. 3 seeds:
Georgetown, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Baylor
Who got screwed: Georgetown. The Midwest is pretty stacked and they are sitting across from Tennessee in the second round who has the best collection of top-10 wins among the 6-seeds (or really among any seeds).
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: New Mexico. They may or may not have the resume to back it up (the 4 seeds didn't necessarily do much more), but given the seedings of other MWC teams, they aren't a 3-seed. They weren't THAT much better than BYU, UNLV, or SDSU to have such a large seeding disparity.
Who makes a push for the Final Four: Pittsburgh. They quietly had a stellar season and can play with anybody on a neutral site, and Salt Lake City should be as neutral as they come (provided BYU doesn't sneak through to the Sweet 16).
No. 4 seeds:
Maryland, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Purdue
Who got screwed: Purdue. No way, no how should they be among the 4s. Not only that, but they got matched up against a Siena team that has won an NCAA tournament game two years in a row. Then they would face up against the most athletic and tested of the 5-seeds in Texas A&M or one of the more underrated of the at-large teams in the tournament in 12th-seeded Utah State. I thought the Boilermakers should have been awarded a 2-seed over Villanova, personally, and they were certainly more deserving of a 3-seed than New Mexico. Body of work, baby.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Wisconsin. They are a nice team, but very unsexy for a 4-seed. For whatever reason, the Big Ten is always "over"-seeded (that might explain Alford's New Mexico team, since he is a former Big Ten guy) and they may prove me wrong in the end.
Who knocks off the 1-seed: Vanderbilt. I had to pick somebody and Vandy nearly toppled Kentucky, so playing the Cuse in Salt Lake City (where Syracuse is NOT well-liked after bouncing BYU from the Tourney a few years back on a record-setting performance by Gerry McNamara) shouldn't be too intimidating.
Here's a quick look at seeds 1-4:
No. 1 seeds:
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Who got screwed: Kansas. They get a very talented non-BCS school in round two, whether that be UNLV or Northern Iowa. Then, they would play last year's runner-up in Michigan State or Greivis Vazquez and the Maryland Terps, coached by a future Hall of Famer. In the Elite 8, they could match up with Big Ten Regular Season and Tournament Champion Ohio State, Big East Tournament Runner-up Georgetown, or giant-slayer (and previous winner of a head-to-head game) Tennessee.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: tough to argue with any of these 4 teams. You have the best two teams in the country who won their conferences and their conference tournaments with Kansas and Kentucky, the ACC regular season and tournament champion with Duke, and the team that won the toughest conference in America (by TWO games!) with Syracuse.
Who doesn't make the Final Four: Syracuse. They overachieved all season (except in the Big East tourney or that exhibition game they lost prior to the season). Or Kansas because of the potential difficulty of their road. Or Duke, simply because they are Duke. Any of the other 1 seeds would DEFINITELY make it through to Indianapolis in the South Regional. I wouldn't be surprised to see only one or two survive through to the Final Four: I would be stunned if all four made it (by the bye, only one time in the history of the 64/65-team field has all four number one seeds made the Final Four).
No. 2 seeds:
Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Villanova
Who got screwed: West Virginia. How does a top 10 ranked Big East Tournament Champion not get a 1 seed? Well, the problem is: all of the 1 seeds were VERY deserving of 1 seeds.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Villanova. The late-season collapse of Jay Wright's squad is baffling. Even more baffling: that the Selection Committee didn't punish them more for dropping 5 of their last 7 games.
Who makes the Final Four: I'm tempted to say Villanova. I don't think they will get pushed/tested until the Regional Final against Duke, with whom they match up very well. It's tough to pick against West Virginia given what they did in the Big East Tourney, but what if one of those crazy shots by "The Butler" didn't go in?
No. 3 seeds:
Georgetown, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Baylor
Who got screwed: Georgetown. The Midwest is pretty stacked and they are sitting across from Tennessee in the second round who has the best collection of top-10 wins among the 6-seeds (or really among any seeds).
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: New Mexico. They may or may not have the resume to back it up (the 4 seeds didn't necessarily do much more), but given the seedings of other MWC teams, they aren't a 3-seed. They weren't THAT much better than BYU, UNLV, or SDSU to have such a large seeding disparity.
Who makes a push for the Final Four: Pittsburgh. They quietly had a stellar season and can play with anybody on a neutral site, and Salt Lake City should be as neutral as they come (provided BYU doesn't sneak through to the Sweet 16).
No. 4 seeds:
Maryland, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Purdue
Who got screwed: Purdue. No way, no how should they be among the 4s. Not only that, but they got matched up against a Siena team that has won an NCAA tournament game two years in a row. Then they would face up against the most athletic and tested of the 5-seeds in Texas A&M or one of the more underrated of the at-large teams in the tournament in 12th-seeded Utah State. I thought the Boilermakers should have been awarded a 2-seed over Villanova, personally, and they were certainly more deserving of a 3-seed than New Mexico. Body of work, baby.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Wisconsin. They are a nice team, but very unsexy for a 4-seed. For whatever reason, the Big Ten is always "over"-seeded (that might explain Alford's New Mexico team, since he is a former Big Ten guy) and they may prove me wrong in the end.
Who knocks off the 1-seed: Vanderbilt. I had to pick somebody and Vandy nearly toppled Kentucky, so playing the Cuse in Salt Lake City (where Syracuse is NOT well-liked after bouncing BYU from the Tourney a few years back on a record-setting performance by Gerry McNamara) shouldn't be too intimidating.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
I stand corrected...again
I thought this was the year. It's not that I thought that: this really WAS the year, if there was ever going to be a year. Next year, UNLV will be better, BYU will just hope to not drop off too much with 3 of the top 6 (and 4 of the top 9) leaving the team this offseason (Chris Miles and Jonathan Tavernari to graduation and Tyler Haws to a mission), with solid replacements for only 1 of the 3 (incoming freshman Kyle Collinsworth to replace Haws: Chris Collinsworth returns from his mission, but he's no JT). Now some of the backups can step up and fill starting roles. But then the 3rd stringers have to become the backups: that is no good if you've ever seen BYU's third string center, James Anderson. The year after that, Jimmer Fredette graduates, along with defensive and 3-point specialist Jackson Emery and 12th man Logan Magnusson. Point is: next year's team won't be able to take down UNLV at UNLV. The year after that is shot, too. Besides, by then, who knows what will be left of the Mountain West, if anything.
Back to tonight's game: there were certainly plenty of opportunities, but the breaks never went the way of the Cougars. So what happened? A couple of shots rimmed out, a couple of no-calls followed by a couple of bad ones, an injury to a starter, a homecourt edge to the lower-seeded team: everyone has their excuse as to why BYU lost THIS game. My excuse: they got outplayed for 30 of 40 minutes, the fact that they had a chance to win at the end was unbelievable. But let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This season, BYU will make its fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. The previous 3 seasons, BYU played a total of 20 teams that made the tournament the same year they played BYU. In those 20 games, BYU is 4-1 at home but 3-12 at neutral sites and on the road. Now the first astonishing fact is the obvious struggles on the road: 80% at home, 25% away from home. It's all mental. They can obviously compete with NCAA Tournament teams, they just can't do it consistently at neutral sites. Unfortunately, the tournament is played at neutral sites. Hence the 0-3 record in tournament games over those 3 years. The second astonishing fact is the 3-1 ratio in the location. Why should a team that has made the tournament 6 of the past 8 years have to play 3 road/neutral site games against NCAA tournament teams for every one home game? This year's team is improved somewhat record-wise, going 2-4 in road games against tourney teams (most likely 2-1 at home, assuming Arizona State doesn't make the tourney: if they do, 3-1), but there still wasn't enough fight in the team to pull out tonight's game.
Tonight's loss, while heartbreaking and full of coulda, shoulda, wouldas, is just another example of BYU's consistency: they win the games they are supposed to, lose the ones they are supposed to, and split the 50-50 games (winning at home, losing away from home). I anticipate the loss will move BYU to a 6-seed in the East Regional. The cynic in me says they'll play in Buffalo against Siena or some other New York-based team, but Buffalo is a Friday-Sunday pod and BYU can't be in that one with their "no Sunday games" policy. I also would not be totally surprised to see BYU as a 7-seed. It isn't a blatant out-to-get-BYU-thing that a lot of BYU fans think: it's simply saying, BYU, you get dropped a seed for making us go through the inconvenience of having to figure out how to keep you from playing on Sunday, or BYU, this is the only way we can keep you from having to play on Sunday. Again, the loss assured them being shipped to the East Regional (the East and West are the two Thursday-Saturday sites) with the West Regional being played in Salt Lake City, and an obvious homecourt advantage for BYU. The NCAA gets the whole unfair homecourt advantage for a lower seed!
Now to the UNLV home court advantage. First off, UNLV has been the highest seed in the tourney only once in the 11 years of the MWC, but they have hosted 8 of the 11 tournaments. The NCAA would never reward such a team with a homecourt advantage, but the MWC seems content to do so. BYU fans complain about it a lot, seeing as how UNLV has beaten BYU in the Finals twice in the past 4 years, and knocked them out in the semis this year. How real is it?
UNLV went 4-3 in the tourney in the three years the tourney was in Denver. They are 14-3 (soon to be 15-3) on their home floor. 57% in tourney play away from home, 82% at home. UNLV is also heading for their 4th MWC Tournament Championship. So they have 4 MWC Tournament Championships to their ONE regular season championship (which was a split championship with Utah 11 years ago). They have beaten BYU in the Finals each of their previous 3 tournament championships: no wonder BYU fans complain about it! This year, it might cost BYU 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament (I believe they would beat SDSU in the Finals and receive a 4-seed, as it is, they are looking at 6 or maybe a 7). One man's loss is another man's gain: UNLV probably goes from a 9 or 10-seed to a 7.
Now let's compare UNLV's home success to CSU, the host team in Denver. CSU is 1-8 in Vegas in the MWC Tournament. They went 2-3 in Denver. And that wasn't even their home floor. And they aren't even a good team. 11% to 40%. Neither is all that good, but it is a huge difference.
This week is just another reminder of how petty the Mountain West really is. They give an arbitrary team home court advantage in the tournament every year. And not just by playing the tournament in their home city, but by doing it on their campus, at their home gym. I would understand if they were "earning" it by winning the regular season championship every once in a while, but it's been over a decade since their last championship. There is no real reason that UNLV should get to host every year. But it helps UNLV get a better seed in the tournament (and as a side effect it hurts BYU). Most teams in the conference won't complain about that. It's tough to have "fairness" in a conference where 5 teams consider ONE team their primary or secondary rival (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU). A MAJORITY of the conference considers a SINGLE team their rival. In a league where all you need is a simple majority to vote on anything, BYU will ALWAYS draw the short end, just on principle.
Beyond that in the past week, Darington Hobson was awarded the MWC Player of the Year. That was a bit of a joke. He might have been the Co-Player of the Year. But he was not THE Player of the Year. Realistically, he's not even the best player on his team and he's the third one I would pick if I were drafting MWC players (Dairese Gary and Roman Martinez being the first two). His production actually dropped in conference play. He never carried the team on his back. He only scored 30 points once (Jimmer did it 7 times). Sportswriters, All-American Teams, and Award-hander-outers across the country clearly favor Jimmer Fredette as the best player in the MWC (and really, the best player west of Kansas).
Jimmer shot 89% on free throws including 2 streaks of over 30 consecutive makes. Jimmer shot 45% from 3-point range. He did all of that while battling strep throat, mononucleosis, and the stomach flu during the course of the season. He won player of the week FIVE times this season, including winning at least one time during every month of the season (once in November, December, and January, and twice in February). Darington Hobson won it 2 times. Kawhi Leonard was the only other player in the conference to win it more than twice (3 times). Also, Roman Martinez won it twice for New Mexico and A.J Hardeman and Dairese Gary each won it once for the Lobos as well. Only the petty Mountain West would be ignorant enough to not give the annual award to Jimmer Fredette when they gave the weekly award to him so frequently. The rest of the country realizes that.
I understand why Hobson got it. I really do. He had a great season for the conference champion and a top 10-ranked team. He made the play that won the conference title with a last-second block at BYU that won the game for them. But it's player of the YEAR, not player of a game. It's the MVP of the conference. It's the guy you want to have the ball in the waning seconds trying to hit a three, or drive to the bucket and score, or drive to the bucket and kick, or score off a catch-and-shoot out-of-bounds play. New Mexico definitely has a guy (or two) like that. It's just not Darington Hobson.
Tonight's prediction: UNLV in a landslide, 80-61. 16,000 UNLV fans, 2,000 SDSU fans. SDSU will finally learn what it's like to be BYU: 8-1 cheering against you at a "neutral" site.
Back to tonight's game: there were certainly plenty of opportunities, but the breaks never went the way of the Cougars. So what happened? A couple of shots rimmed out, a couple of no-calls followed by a couple of bad ones, an injury to a starter, a homecourt edge to the lower-seeded team: everyone has their excuse as to why BYU lost THIS game. My excuse: they got outplayed for 30 of 40 minutes, the fact that they had a chance to win at the end was unbelievable. But let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This season, BYU will make its fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. The previous 3 seasons, BYU played a total of 20 teams that made the tournament the same year they played BYU. In those 20 games, BYU is 4-1 at home but 3-12 at neutral sites and on the road. Now the first astonishing fact is the obvious struggles on the road: 80% at home, 25% away from home. It's all mental. They can obviously compete with NCAA Tournament teams, they just can't do it consistently at neutral sites. Unfortunately, the tournament is played at neutral sites. Hence the 0-3 record in tournament games over those 3 years. The second astonishing fact is the 3-1 ratio in the location. Why should a team that has made the tournament 6 of the past 8 years have to play 3 road/neutral site games against NCAA tournament teams for every one home game? This year's team is improved somewhat record-wise, going 2-4 in road games against tourney teams (most likely 2-1 at home, assuming Arizona State doesn't make the tourney: if they do, 3-1), but there still wasn't enough fight in the team to pull out tonight's game.
Tonight's loss, while heartbreaking and full of coulda, shoulda, wouldas, is just another example of BYU's consistency: they win the games they are supposed to, lose the ones they are supposed to, and split the 50-50 games (winning at home, losing away from home). I anticipate the loss will move BYU to a 6-seed in the East Regional. The cynic in me says they'll play in Buffalo against Siena or some other New York-based team, but Buffalo is a Friday-Sunday pod and BYU can't be in that one with their "no Sunday games" policy. I also would not be totally surprised to see BYU as a 7-seed. It isn't a blatant out-to-get-BYU-thing that a lot of BYU fans think: it's simply saying, BYU, you get dropped a seed for making us go through the inconvenience of having to figure out how to keep you from playing on Sunday, or BYU, this is the only way we can keep you from having to play on Sunday. Again, the loss assured them being shipped to the East Regional (the East and West are the two Thursday-Saturday sites) with the West Regional being played in Salt Lake City, and an obvious homecourt advantage for BYU. The NCAA gets the whole unfair homecourt advantage for a lower seed!
Now to the UNLV home court advantage. First off, UNLV has been the highest seed in the tourney only once in the 11 years of the MWC, but they have hosted 8 of the 11 tournaments. The NCAA would never reward such a team with a homecourt advantage, but the MWC seems content to do so. BYU fans complain about it a lot, seeing as how UNLV has beaten BYU in the Finals twice in the past 4 years, and knocked them out in the semis this year. How real is it?
UNLV went 4-3 in the tourney in the three years the tourney was in Denver. They are 14-3 (soon to be 15-3) on their home floor. 57% in tourney play away from home, 82% at home. UNLV is also heading for their 4th MWC Tournament Championship. So they have 4 MWC Tournament Championships to their ONE regular season championship (which was a split championship with Utah 11 years ago). They have beaten BYU in the Finals each of their previous 3 tournament championships: no wonder BYU fans complain about it! This year, it might cost BYU 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament (I believe they would beat SDSU in the Finals and receive a 4-seed, as it is, they are looking at 6 or maybe a 7). One man's loss is another man's gain: UNLV probably goes from a 9 or 10-seed to a 7.
Now let's compare UNLV's home success to CSU, the host team in Denver. CSU is 1-8 in Vegas in the MWC Tournament. They went 2-3 in Denver. And that wasn't even their home floor. And they aren't even a good team. 11% to 40%. Neither is all that good, but it is a huge difference.
This week is just another reminder of how petty the Mountain West really is. They give an arbitrary team home court advantage in the tournament every year. And not just by playing the tournament in their home city, but by doing it on their campus, at their home gym. I would understand if they were "earning" it by winning the regular season championship every once in a while, but it's been over a decade since their last championship. There is no real reason that UNLV should get to host every year. But it helps UNLV get a better seed in the tournament (and as a side effect it hurts BYU). Most teams in the conference won't complain about that. It's tough to have "fairness" in a conference where 5 teams consider ONE team their primary or secondary rival (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU). A MAJORITY of the conference considers a SINGLE team their rival. In a league where all you need is a simple majority to vote on anything, BYU will ALWAYS draw the short end, just on principle.
Beyond that in the past week, Darington Hobson was awarded the MWC Player of the Year. That was a bit of a joke. He might have been the Co-Player of the Year. But he was not THE Player of the Year. Realistically, he's not even the best player on his team and he's the third one I would pick if I were drafting MWC players (Dairese Gary and Roman Martinez being the first two). His production actually dropped in conference play. He never carried the team on his back. He only scored 30 points once (Jimmer did it 7 times). Sportswriters, All-American Teams, and Award-hander-outers across the country clearly favor Jimmer Fredette as the best player in the MWC (and really, the best player west of Kansas).
Jimmer shot 89% on free throws including 2 streaks of over 30 consecutive makes. Jimmer shot 45% from 3-point range. He did all of that while battling strep throat, mononucleosis, and the stomach flu during the course of the season. He won player of the week FIVE times this season, including winning at least one time during every month of the season (once in November, December, and January, and twice in February). Darington Hobson won it 2 times. Kawhi Leonard was the only other player in the conference to win it more than twice (3 times). Also, Roman Martinez won it twice for New Mexico and A.J Hardeman and Dairese Gary each won it once for the Lobos as well. Only the petty Mountain West would be ignorant enough to not give the annual award to Jimmer Fredette when they gave the weekly award to him so frequently. The rest of the country realizes that.
I understand why Hobson got it. I really do. He had a great season for the conference champion and a top 10-ranked team. He made the play that won the conference title with a last-second block at BYU that won the game for them. But it's player of the YEAR, not player of a game. It's the MVP of the conference. It's the guy you want to have the ball in the waning seconds trying to hit a three, or drive to the bucket and score, or drive to the bucket and kick, or score off a catch-and-shoot out-of-bounds play. New Mexico definitely has a guy (or two) like that. It's just not Darington Hobson.
Tonight's prediction: UNLV in a landslide, 80-61. 16,000 UNLV fans, 2,000 SDSU fans. SDSU will finally learn what it's like to be BYU: 8-1 cheering against you at a "neutral" site.
Friday, March 12, 2010
So Far, So Good
I stand by my predictions to this point. And I stick by my prognostications for the next round.
SDSU over New Mexico, 74-68 (I'm going with a SLIGHTLY higher score than originally stated). New Mexico has had issues with SDSU this year: SDSU won by 10 at home (without Billy White) and took the game at the Pit to OT before falling by 2. In tournament play, the hungrier team usually wins. Playing for your NCAA Tournament life makes you hungrier than playing for your NCAA Tournament seed. Billy White can slow down Hobson. DJ Gay can slow down Dairese Gary. If Kawhi Leonard can slow down Roman Martinez and if Chase Tapley stays with Phillip McDonald at the 3-point line, SDSU could win this game going away. It will take a team effort, but I think SDSU can reach down and get it done.
Now is the time for BYU to put up or shut up. Yes, UNLV is at home. But it is not an impregnable fortress. This year's (sub .500) Utah team went in there and got it done. Last year's NIT-bound SDSU team beat them in the tournament. This year's BYU team is better than both of those teams that got the job done in Vegas. Jimmer is ready to go. Jackson Emery is playing as good of defense as he has played all year. They are getting bench production. Fans from the New Mexico-SDSU game winner will probably side with BYU (maybe, I doubt they want to play UNLV in the Finals) for a change. This is it. Win a big game. For once. Show your fans that this year's team is different. I'm still going with BYU to pull it out: 80-72 (slightly lower-scoring than originally predicted). Jimmer won't get to shoot 24 free throws this game, so if he wants 45 points again, he's going to have to make some shots. Everybody needs to shoot better tonight. If they do, they might just win this thing.
Again, a web site to watch the game if you don't get CBS College Sports: http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999 or http://www.justin.tv/sportzentertainment2c should get you somewhere to watch the game. It starts at 9:30pm Mountain, sorry East Coasters...
SDSU over New Mexico, 74-68 (I'm going with a SLIGHTLY higher score than originally stated). New Mexico has had issues with SDSU this year: SDSU won by 10 at home (without Billy White) and took the game at the Pit to OT before falling by 2. In tournament play, the hungrier team usually wins. Playing for your NCAA Tournament life makes you hungrier than playing for your NCAA Tournament seed. Billy White can slow down Hobson. DJ Gay can slow down Dairese Gary. If Kawhi Leonard can slow down Roman Martinez and if Chase Tapley stays with Phillip McDonald at the 3-point line, SDSU could win this game going away. It will take a team effort, but I think SDSU can reach down and get it done.
Now is the time for BYU to put up or shut up. Yes, UNLV is at home. But it is not an impregnable fortress. This year's (sub .500) Utah team went in there and got it done. Last year's NIT-bound SDSU team beat them in the tournament. This year's BYU team is better than both of those teams that got the job done in Vegas. Jimmer is ready to go. Jackson Emery is playing as good of defense as he has played all year. They are getting bench production. Fans from the New Mexico-SDSU game winner will probably side with BYU (maybe, I doubt they want to play UNLV in the Finals) for a change. This is it. Win a big game. For once. Show your fans that this year's team is different. I'm still going with BYU to pull it out: 80-72 (slightly lower-scoring than originally predicted). Jimmer won't get to shoot 24 free throws this game, so if he wants 45 points again, he's going to have to make some shots. Everybody needs to shoot better tonight. If they do, they might just win this thing.
Again, a web site to watch the game if you don't get CBS College Sports: http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999 or http://www.justin.tv/sportzentertainment2c should get you somewhere to watch the game. It starts at 9:30pm Mountain, sorry East Coasters...
Thursday, March 11, 2010
BYU's game today
Thanks to Shane for providing the following link to watch BYU's game on the web.
http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999
It's on at 9pm Eastern, 7pm Mountain time, on the Mountain Network if you have it.
Also, I have learned from an inside source that Lamont Morgan is healthy, ready to go, and should play in the tournament. I am not sure how much time he will see though with the recent explosion of Michael Loyd and with Jimmer returning to health.
http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999
It's on at 9pm Eastern, 7pm Mountain time, on the Mountain Network if you have it.
Also, I have learned from an inside source that Lamont Morgan is healthy, ready to go, and should play in the tournament. I am not sure how much time he will see though with the recent explosion of Michael Loyd and with Jimmer returning to health.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Whom Should BYU Fans Cheer For?
The question arises during Championship Week: whom do I want to win? Well, first off, cheer for your own team. Duh. If you are a bubble team, you cheer against the other bubble teams and for "locks" to win their conference tournaments. If you are securely in the field, as BYU is, you cheer against the teams that you are fighting for when it comes to seeding. Obviously, BYU needs to take care of business, i.e. advance to the MWC Tournament Finals at least, if not win the whole thing. But if they do that, how does the rest of it go and who are the teams involved?
Well, today, Nebraska knocked off Mizzou: double-good for BYU. First, with a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament, Mizzou might have jumped ahead of BYU when it comes to seeding. Second, this is the same Nebraska team that BYU throttled in a neutral-site tournament by 22. The fact that it was a 15-point win for Nebraska is all the better.
BYU fans definitely want teams that they played to do well: Weber State is in their conference tournament final, Utah State is the 1-seed in the WAC Tourney with Nevada as the 2 (a final between them would be great for BYU), Arizona and Arizona State could make runs in the Pac 10, and UTEP taking the C-USA Tournament would likewise be positive.
On the flip side, there are teams that BYU fans should want to make early exits in their conference tournament, as BYU is likely fighting with them for seeding:
Maryland, Michigan State, Temple, Georgetown (definitely don't want them to beat Syracuse tomorrow!), Texas A&M (they play Nebraska then KU, a loss to Nebraska would be great), Tennessee and Vandy (good for BYU, potentially bad for SDSU/MWC since they play "bubble" teams in their tournaments), Wisconsin (same deal, play a bubble team in the first round, good for BYU equals bad for MWC), Texas, and Xavier. Barring deep runs by Florida State and Clemson in the ACC, BYU shouldn't worry about being passed by anybody else.
If BYU bows out early or in the semis to home-standing UNLV, it may not matter anyway. But still, if you want to have a reason to care about some of these non-MWC, non-BYU games, I've given you some teams to cheer for and against. Go Weber State!
Well, today, Nebraska knocked off Mizzou: double-good for BYU. First, with a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament, Mizzou might have jumped ahead of BYU when it comes to seeding. Second, this is the same Nebraska team that BYU throttled in a neutral-site tournament by 22. The fact that it was a 15-point win for Nebraska is all the better.
BYU fans definitely want teams that they played to do well: Weber State is in their conference tournament final, Utah State is the 1-seed in the WAC Tourney with Nevada as the 2 (a final between them would be great for BYU), Arizona and Arizona State could make runs in the Pac 10, and UTEP taking the C-USA Tournament would likewise be positive.
On the flip side, there are teams that BYU fans should want to make early exits in their conference tournament, as BYU is likely fighting with them for seeding:
Maryland, Michigan State, Temple, Georgetown (definitely don't want them to beat Syracuse tomorrow!), Texas A&M (they play Nebraska then KU, a loss to Nebraska would be great), Tennessee and Vandy (good for BYU, potentially bad for SDSU/MWC since they play "bubble" teams in their tournaments), Wisconsin (same deal, play a bubble team in the first round, good for BYU equals bad for MWC), Texas, and Xavier. Barring deep runs by Florida State and Clemson in the ACC, BYU shouldn't worry about being passed by anybody else.
If BYU bows out early or in the semis to home-standing UNLV, it may not matter anyway. But still, if you want to have a reason to care about some of these non-MWC, non-BYU games, I've given you some teams to cheer for and against. Go Weber State!
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Seeding for the NCAAs
Here is how I view the seeding for the MWC teams based on each team's possible scenarios:
New Mexico:
Season ends today: 3
1st round loss in the MWC Tourney: 4
2nd round loss to SDSU: 3
2nd round loss to CSU: 4
Finals loss (to anybody): 3
MWC Conference Champs: 2
BYU:
Season ends today: 6
1st round loss: 7
2nd round loss to UNLV: 6
2nd round loss to Utah: 7 (maybe still a 6)
Finals loss (to anybody): 5
MWC Conference Champs: 4
UNLV:
Season ends today: 9
1st round loss: 11
2nd round loss to BYU: 9
2nd round loss to TCU: 10
Finals loss (to anybody): 8
MWC Conference Champs: 7
SDSU:
Season ends today: 13
1st round loss: NIT
2nd round loss to New Mexico: maybe 13 (as the last team in), probably NIT
2nd round loss to Wyoming/Air Force: NIT
Finals loss to BYU/UNLV: 12
Finals loss to anybody else: 13 as the last team in, maybe NIT
MWC Conference Champs: 11
CSU/Utah:
MWC Conference Champs: 13
TCU/Wyoming/Air Force:
MWC Conference Champs: 14 (they would have to beat 3 of the 4 in the tournament, which would garner them more respect from the Committee than the 15/16 seeds)
New Mexico:
Season ends today: 3
1st round loss in the MWC Tourney: 4
2nd round loss to SDSU: 3
2nd round loss to CSU: 4
Finals loss (to anybody): 3
MWC Conference Champs: 2
BYU:
Season ends today: 6
1st round loss: 7
2nd round loss to UNLV: 6
2nd round loss to Utah: 7 (maybe still a 6)
Finals loss (to anybody): 5
MWC Conference Champs: 4
UNLV:
Season ends today: 9
1st round loss: 11
2nd round loss to BYU: 9
2nd round loss to TCU: 10
Finals loss (to anybody): 8
MWC Conference Champs: 7
SDSU:
Season ends today: 13
1st round loss: NIT
2nd round loss to New Mexico: maybe 13 (as the last team in), probably NIT
2nd round loss to Wyoming/Air Force: NIT
Finals loss to BYU/UNLV: 12
Finals loss to anybody else: 13 as the last team in, maybe NIT
MWC Conference Champs: 11
CSU/Utah:
MWC Conference Champs: 13
TCU/Wyoming/Air Force:
MWC Conference Champs: 14 (they would have to beat 3 of the 4 in the tournament, which would garner them more respect from the Committee than the 15/16 seeds)
Monday, March 8, 2010
MWC Tourney
New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force winner: this game shouldn't be close, but you never know with New Mexico. Their biggest "weakness" is that they play to the level of their competition. New Mexico trailed in the second half to EVERY team in the conference, several of them at home, excluding Wyoming (whom they beat by 2 on the road, but never trailed). But they also won at BYU and at UNLV, something NOBODY else has done since Coach Rose and Coach Kruger joined the MWC. Either way, I don't see New Mexico falling to either of these teams. It is probably closer than it should be, like a lot of New Mexico's conference games have been, but New Mexico probably pulls out a 10-12 point win over Air Force or a 15-20 point win over Wyoming. I think they will play Wyoming, because every time I pick Air Force to win, they lose...
SDSU vs. CSU: the Rams have lived by the 3 and died by the 3 this year. That is a bad way to be in a tournament setting: 3-point shooting cannot carry you through a 3-game, winner-takes-all, tournament: particularly when you aren't very good in other facets of the game (i.e. offensive rebounding). SDSU is playing well. They want it. They need it. And they take it. I'll put the spread around 8, with SDSU getting into the low-to-mid 70's, 72-64.
BYU vs. TCU: well, if TCU can shoot 83% for an entire game, they can beat BYU (that was their shooting % through 5 minutes and a 14-point lead over BYU on Saturday). The problem is: you can't shoot that well all game. You can somewhat throw the result on from Saturday's contest when projecting ahead to this tournament game. BYU won't win by 30. This could be a 15-18 point win however. BYU probably steps off the gas pedal the last 5 minutes, but I anticipate a game in the low 80's for BYU, 83-67.
UNLV vs. Utah: with a season sweep, Utah is probably somewhat confident going into this game. This game could go one of two ways (both are good for BYU): 1) UNLV comes out with vengeance on their mind for allowing Utah knock them off of the NCAA Tourney "locks" list and onto the bubble with two losses. They shoot 60% from the field and drop 80+ on Utah. 2) Utah does present a lot of matchup problems for UNLV and it's a struggle, playing late into the night and scrapping to a close win. UNLV is not a great shooting team, so if they have a lights out game on Thursday, the odds of them turning around and doing the same thing on Friday isn't very likely. Or if the game is a nail-biter, drag-it-out, punishing, physical type of game, they will have to turn around and play BYU roughly 22 hours later, who will be better rested and more focused. I don't think Utah can win this game, particularly if Foster and Tillie don't play (last I heard, Foster was "done" for the year, no word on Tillie). Even if they do play, beating UNLV in Vegas AGAIN probably isn't in the cards for the slumping Utes. Then again, it is Utah. I say: Rebels by 20, 83-63.
That sets up New Mexico vs. SDSU and BYU vs. UNLV. Fans want to see New Mexico vs. BYU in the championship game I am not really confident it will play out that way. SDSU beat New Mexico at home without Billy White and lost to them in overtime by 2 at the Pit. Neutral site: I think SDSU can take it. Not to mention that SDSU (who is currently projected to make the tournament) will not make it WITHOUT this win over New Mexico. All of the "bracketologists" seem to agree on that point: if the season ended today, SDSU would be in, but the season doesn't end today and a loss to New Mexico would likely push them into the first four out (again). In a game destined for mid-60's to low-70's, SDSU wins by 5, 72-67. However, in games against Air Force and Utah, New Mexico benefited from some blatantly bad officiating down the stretch, if they get a little more of that, they'll be tough to beat! Of course, what goes around, comes around, maybe New Mexico gets the rough end of the deal this time around...
For BYU, if you are ever to beat UNLV at the Thomas & Mack, this is the time. UNLV has never lost in the Finals, but they have been susceptible to the early knockout, before their fans show up in droves. I have described how I think they beat Utah: shooting amazingly well and dropping over 80 points. They haven't shot over 50% two games in a row but a couple of times this season, and it wasn't against back-to-back defenses like Utah and BYU. If BYU plays as a team, and Jimmer scores 20+ points, they win this one something like 82-74. (If they go into scramble mode as they often do in big/tournament games, UNLV wins 86-75.)
This sets up BYU vs. SDSU in the Championship. BYU is a better team. They are a deeper team. They would probably have a lot of success doing exactly what they did in the Marriott Center: run, run, and run some more. SDSU just doesn't have enough players in their rotation to win 3 games in 3 days (7, maybe 8). I think the winner of the BYU vs. UNLV game will win the tournament, regardless of whom they play, but I don't believe that SDSU is capable of beating either of those teams in this setting. New Mexico is capable of beating either, but UNLV in a Final is a gimme for the home team. And with BYU-New Mexico, given how nearly exactly even the two teams are (both games decided by 4 points or less), I don't see any way that New Mexico can get a 3-game sweep against them. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is beat a team 3 times in a season, particularly when you aren't that much better than the opponent, if at all. But I digress. Back to where we started: BYU beats SDSU 79-63 to claim the MWC Tournament Championship and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico gets a 3/4-seed in the West/South Regional. BYU gets a 4-seed in the West/East Regional. UNLV gets a 9/10-seed in the Midwest/East. SDSU gets a 12-seed in the Midwest/South. Of course, if the tourney plays out differently than I stated, those seedings are probably way off...I'll update as we go along, just like all of the Bracketologists do!
SDSU vs. CSU: the Rams have lived by the 3 and died by the 3 this year. That is a bad way to be in a tournament setting: 3-point shooting cannot carry you through a 3-game, winner-takes-all, tournament: particularly when you aren't very good in other facets of the game (i.e. offensive rebounding). SDSU is playing well. They want it. They need it. And they take it. I'll put the spread around 8, with SDSU getting into the low-to-mid 70's, 72-64.
BYU vs. TCU: well, if TCU can shoot 83% for an entire game, they can beat BYU (that was their shooting % through 5 minutes and a 14-point lead over BYU on Saturday). The problem is: you can't shoot that well all game. You can somewhat throw the result on from Saturday's contest when projecting ahead to this tournament game. BYU won't win by 30. This could be a 15-18 point win however. BYU probably steps off the gas pedal the last 5 minutes, but I anticipate a game in the low 80's for BYU, 83-67.
UNLV vs. Utah: with a season sweep, Utah is probably somewhat confident going into this game. This game could go one of two ways (both are good for BYU): 1) UNLV comes out with vengeance on their mind for allowing Utah knock them off of the NCAA Tourney "locks" list and onto the bubble with two losses. They shoot 60% from the field and drop 80+ on Utah. 2) Utah does present a lot of matchup problems for UNLV and it's a struggle, playing late into the night and scrapping to a close win. UNLV is not a great shooting team, so if they have a lights out game on Thursday, the odds of them turning around and doing the same thing on Friday isn't very likely. Or if the game is a nail-biter, drag-it-out, punishing, physical type of game, they will have to turn around and play BYU roughly 22 hours later, who will be better rested and more focused. I don't think Utah can win this game, particularly if Foster and Tillie don't play (last I heard, Foster was "done" for the year, no word on Tillie). Even if they do play, beating UNLV in Vegas AGAIN probably isn't in the cards for the slumping Utes. Then again, it is Utah. I say: Rebels by 20, 83-63.
That sets up New Mexico vs. SDSU and BYU vs. UNLV. Fans want to see New Mexico vs. BYU in the championship game I am not really confident it will play out that way. SDSU beat New Mexico at home without Billy White and lost to them in overtime by 2 at the Pit. Neutral site: I think SDSU can take it. Not to mention that SDSU (who is currently projected to make the tournament) will not make it WITHOUT this win over New Mexico. All of the "bracketologists" seem to agree on that point: if the season ended today, SDSU would be in, but the season doesn't end today and a loss to New Mexico would likely push them into the first four out (again). In a game destined for mid-60's to low-70's, SDSU wins by 5, 72-67. However, in games against Air Force and Utah, New Mexico benefited from some blatantly bad officiating down the stretch, if they get a little more of that, they'll be tough to beat! Of course, what goes around, comes around, maybe New Mexico gets the rough end of the deal this time around...
For BYU, if you are ever to beat UNLV at the Thomas & Mack, this is the time. UNLV has never lost in the Finals, but they have been susceptible to the early knockout, before their fans show up in droves. I have described how I think they beat Utah: shooting amazingly well and dropping over 80 points. They haven't shot over 50% two games in a row but a couple of times this season, and it wasn't against back-to-back defenses like Utah and BYU. If BYU plays as a team, and Jimmer scores 20+ points, they win this one something like 82-74. (If they go into scramble mode as they often do in big/tournament games, UNLV wins 86-75.)
This sets up BYU vs. SDSU in the Championship. BYU is a better team. They are a deeper team. They would probably have a lot of success doing exactly what they did in the Marriott Center: run, run, and run some more. SDSU just doesn't have enough players in their rotation to win 3 games in 3 days (7, maybe 8). I think the winner of the BYU vs. UNLV game will win the tournament, regardless of whom they play, but I don't believe that SDSU is capable of beating either of those teams in this setting. New Mexico is capable of beating either, but UNLV in a Final is a gimme for the home team. And with BYU-New Mexico, given how nearly exactly even the two teams are (both games decided by 4 points or less), I don't see any way that New Mexico can get a 3-game sweep against them. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is beat a team 3 times in a season, particularly when you aren't that much better than the opponent, if at all. But I digress. Back to where we started: BYU beats SDSU 79-63 to claim the MWC Tournament Championship and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico gets a 3/4-seed in the West/South Regional. BYU gets a 4-seed in the West/East Regional. UNLV gets a 9/10-seed in the Midwest/East. SDSU gets a 12-seed in the Midwest/South. Of course, if the tourney plays out differently than I stated, those seedings are probably way off...I'll update as we go along, just like all of the Bracketologists do!
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Just a Few Items Left To Be Decided
Already decided:
#1 New Mexico
#2 BYU
#7 TCU
#8 Wyoming
#9 Air Force
So New Mexico plays the winner of the play-in game between Wyoming and Air Force. BYU plays TCU, a replay of the game to be played this weekend.
3-6 will be decided this weekend. UNLV should wrap up the 3 seed. All they have to do is beat Wyoming at home. That puts SDSU in 4th, whether they win at Air Force or not. The winner of Utah at CSU gets 5.
UNLV wraps it up with a 20-point shellacking of Wyoming. This win, though it doesn't really mean anything to the committee, will probably be the one that secures them a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rebels over Cowboys, 81-61. 3-seed, Rebels.
SDSU cruises through the Air Force game. Air Force has struggled to score 50 points of late. SDSU has been playing better offensively the past 2 or 3 weeks, but they are always a defensive-minded team first. Aztecs stay on the right side of the bubble with a big win on the road, 68-48. 4-seed, Aztecs.
Utah and CSU both need a win. Judging by the Utes poor performance last night and the loss of their "10-foot wall" in the middle (Foster sprained his ankle in the second half against BYU), they should limp in and out of Fort Collins. But wouldn't it be just like Boylen's Utes to surprise us all and pull out a victory against all odds? Sorry, the Runnin' Utes look more like the Walk-It-Up-And-Run-Clock-So-We-Can-End-This-Miserable-Game-Already Utes. Of course, CSU is in the middle of a 5-game winning streak, so this might be the time. I think CSU wins on Senior Night, 64-56. 5-seed, Rams. 6-seed, Utes.
BYU over TCU in front of 500 TCU fans, and 1,500 Cougar fans, 81-60. BYU is playing good team offense the past few games, and if some shots start falling for Haws and Tavernari, they'll get back into the 80's just in time for the MWC and NCAA Tournaments. Their defense has been pretty solid most of the year, particularly against the bottom of the league. They don't need Jimmer this game, but he'll probably put in a good 25 minutes and drop 25 points. He'll remind people why he was the frontrunner for MWC Player of the Year, even at 80%. I still don't think he gets the award, but, hey, he is by far the best point guard in the league.
That would put the MWC Tournament
New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force
SDSU vs. CSU
BYU vs. TCU
UNLV vs. Utah
Every single matchup in the first round was a season sweep. Only in UNLV-Utah was the lower seed the one that swept. The first round is on the Mtn Network on Thursday afternoon and evening. The second round is on CBS-College Sports on Friday evening. The championship game is on Versus on Saturday at 4pm Pacific Time.
What do you all think: CSU or Utah as the 5-seed?
#1 New Mexico
#2 BYU
#7 TCU
#8 Wyoming
#9 Air Force
So New Mexico plays the winner of the play-in game between Wyoming and Air Force. BYU plays TCU, a replay of the game to be played this weekend.
3-6 will be decided this weekend. UNLV should wrap up the 3 seed. All they have to do is beat Wyoming at home. That puts SDSU in 4th, whether they win at Air Force or not. The winner of Utah at CSU gets 5.
UNLV wraps it up with a 20-point shellacking of Wyoming. This win, though it doesn't really mean anything to the committee, will probably be the one that secures them a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rebels over Cowboys, 81-61. 3-seed, Rebels.
SDSU cruises through the Air Force game. Air Force has struggled to score 50 points of late. SDSU has been playing better offensively the past 2 or 3 weeks, but they are always a defensive-minded team first. Aztecs stay on the right side of the bubble with a big win on the road, 68-48. 4-seed, Aztecs.
Utah and CSU both need a win. Judging by the Utes poor performance last night and the loss of their "10-foot wall" in the middle (Foster sprained his ankle in the second half against BYU), they should limp in and out of Fort Collins. But wouldn't it be just like Boylen's Utes to surprise us all and pull out a victory against all odds? Sorry, the Runnin' Utes look more like the Walk-It-Up-And-Run-Clock-So-We-Can-End-This-Miserable-Game-Already Utes. Of course, CSU is in the middle of a 5-game winning streak, so this might be the time. I think CSU wins on Senior Night, 64-56. 5-seed, Rams. 6-seed, Utes.
BYU over TCU in front of 500 TCU fans, and 1,500 Cougar fans, 81-60. BYU is playing good team offense the past few games, and if some shots start falling for Haws and Tavernari, they'll get back into the 80's just in time for the MWC and NCAA Tournaments. Their defense has been pretty solid most of the year, particularly against the bottom of the league. They don't need Jimmer this game, but he'll probably put in a good 25 minutes and drop 25 points. He'll remind people why he was the frontrunner for MWC Player of the Year, even at 80%. I still don't think he gets the award, but, hey, he is by far the best point guard in the league.
That would put the MWC Tournament
New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force
SDSU vs. CSU
BYU vs. TCU
UNLV vs. Utah
Every single matchup in the first round was a season sweep. Only in UNLV-Utah was the lower seed the one that swept. The first round is on the Mtn Network on Thursday afternoon and evening. The second round is on CBS-College Sports on Friday evening. The championship game is on Versus on Saturday at 4pm Pacific Time.
What do you all think: CSU or Utah as the 5-seed?
I'll Stop Now
I have been overestimating Utah most of the season, except against UNLV where I have underestimated them twice. 20-point loss to your rival? At home? Only scoring 51 points? Only 34 points midway through the second half? The biggest loss to BYU in the Huntsman Center ever? And this coming off a conference championship, MWC tournament championship, and NCAA tournament bid? I know they lost 4 key contributors from that team, but at what point does Boylen man up and take some of the blame for this? Last year and the year before, he made sure people knew the program's success was all about him. This year, all of a sudden, it's the players' faults. He is putting them in position to succeed and they just aren't executing. OK, well, at 14-15, either your players are just horrible or you aren't helping them enough to succeed.
You have talent. You beat UNLV. Twice! You took New Mexico to OT. You took down Illinois. Please: don't be an idiot. You are destroying a very good basketball program. Try something different, Mr. Izzo Jr. How about having your best scorer in the game from the tip, so you don't have to chase double-digit deficits that happen the first five minutes of the game...geez, how long will Ute fans have to endure this clown at the helm?
Don't even get me started on Mr. Izzo Jr.'s in-game antics. He looks like a 4-year old that is super-hyped up on pixie sticks who just had his favorite Buzz Lightyear toy unjustly taken away. And that's just the first half when his team is down by 10. Just wait until they get down by 20. And now, nobody wants to be the idiotic media guy in the post-game news conference asking him about the team's (continued) poor performance. The Utes are still paying for the Ray Giacolleti mis-hire (and will pay him through next year if I'm not mistaken). I'm not sure they can afford to pay for the Boylen mis-hire. They can't afford to pay Giac, Boylen, and a coach who is actually worth hiring, especially with their atrocious attendance numbers this year. So you will have to endure at least one more year of this, Ute fans. I feel for you.
You have talent. You beat UNLV. Twice! You took New Mexico to OT. You took down Illinois. Please: don't be an idiot. You are destroying a very good basketball program. Try something different, Mr. Izzo Jr. How about having your best scorer in the game from the tip, so you don't have to chase double-digit deficits that happen the first five minutes of the game...geez, how long will Ute fans have to endure this clown at the helm?
Don't even get me started on Mr. Izzo Jr.'s in-game antics. He looks like a 4-year old that is super-hyped up on pixie sticks who just had his favorite Buzz Lightyear toy unjustly taken away. And that's just the first half when his team is down by 10. Just wait until they get down by 20. And now, nobody wants to be the idiotic media guy in the post-game news conference asking him about the team's (continued) poor performance. The Utes are still paying for the Ray Giacolleti mis-hire (and will pay him through next year if I'm not mistaken). I'm not sure they can afford to pay for the Boylen mis-hire. They can't afford to pay Giac, Boylen, and a coach who is actually worth hiring, especially with their atrocious attendance numbers this year. So you will have to endure at least one more year of this, Ute fans. I feel for you.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Last week: battle for seeding
Air Force and Wyoming duke it out for who gets the 8 seed in the MWC tourney, and who gets the 9. The winner gets 8, the loser gets 9. Wyoming has lost by single digits only once in the last 8 games: the rest were all double-digit losses. Air Force has lost by single digits twice in the last 7. Bottom line: both teams stink and have showed it, particularly recently. Air Force pulls out the elusive road W, 62-57.
I would anticipate some flatness from New Mexico, hosting TCU after an emotional win at the Marriott Center. They should be able to overcome that against a TCU team that never really gelled. New Mexico over TCU, 70-58.
CSU probably needs to win at SDSU in order to secure a bid to the NIT. SDSU needs to beat CSU to stay in the running for an NCAA bid. SDSU is clearly a better team. And they are at home. And they have had the weekend off to rest and prepare for the game after a somewhat poor showing at BYU last week. And CSU is riding a 4-game losing streak. SDSU stays on pace with a win over the Rams, 69-58.
BYU-Utah, normally a big deal. This year: not so much. Utah has been meddling around .500 all season, dropping below, then rising back to it. Right now they stand at exactly .500 and in need of a win to secure 5th place in the conference. Only 1 other time this season have they put together 3 wins in a row. They are sitting at 2 in a row right now. Again, I don't like Boylen's approach and I don't think he'll have them prepared to beat BYU. His biggest problem is that his coaching philosophy doesn't have a big impact on BYU's style. He wants to grind it out in the halfcourt and utilize his size and his D. But you have to score at least 70 to beat BYU. This Utah team is built to run, excluding Foster, but Boylen doesn't allow them to do that: he is holding them back. The question is: how will BYU respond after the disappointing loss to New Mexico last week? Regardless of whether Jimmer plays, BYU takes it in a closely contested game, 73-68.
I would anticipate some flatness from New Mexico, hosting TCU after an emotional win at the Marriott Center. They should be able to overcome that against a TCU team that never really gelled. New Mexico over TCU, 70-58.
CSU probably needs to win at SDSU in order to secure a bid to the NIT. SDSU needs to beat CSU to stay in the running for an NCAA bid. SDSU is clearly a better team. And they are at home. And they have had the weekend off to rest and prepare for the game after a somewhat poor showing at BYU last week. And CSU is riding a 4-game losing streak. SDSU stays on pace with a win over the Rams, 69-58.
BYU-Utah, normally a big deal. This year: not so much. Utah has been meddling around .500 all season, dropping below, then rising back to it. Right now they stand at exactly .500 and in need of a win to secure 5th place in the conference. Only 1 other time this season have they put together 3 wins in a row. They are sitting at 2 in a row right now. Again, I don't like Boylen's approach and I don't think he'll have them prepared to beat BYU. His biggest problem is that his coaching philosophy doesn't have a big impact on BYU's style. He wants to grind it out in the halfcourt and utilize his size and his D. But you have to score at least 70 to beat BYU. This Utah team is built to run, excluding Foster, but Boylen doesn't allow them to do that: he is holding them back. The question is: how will BYU respond after the disappointing loss to New Mexico last week? Regardless of whether Jimmer plays, BYU takes it in a closely contested game, 73-68.
Monday, March 1, 2010
The Aftermath
So New Mexico has guaranteed a conference title, a number 1 seed in the MWC tournament, probably player of the year, certainly coach of the year, and that their history of classless behavior by their basketball program will continue. This time, the behavior was displayed by their coach, Steve Alford. For those who followed him at Iowa (that would probably only be me...), this comes as no surprise. He was always a punk. However, that is what makes him such a perfect fit at New Mexico. It was also what made me worried when I heard he was coming to New Mexico: just what THAT program needs, replace a classy guy who can't win with a classless guy who may or may not be able to win...
For those of you who missed what happened (and if you watched the game you probably did since they NEVER talked about it), here is a summary, based on what Sportscenter discussed, what Alford said happened, what Jim Rayburn (BYU Sportsbeat writer) and Greg Wrubell said happened, and what Youtube videos show:
With about 50 seconds left, Darington Hobson threw an intentional elbow into Jonathan Tavernari's chest. JT wanted the official to make a call and went nuts when he didn't. Hobson came over for a handshake following the timeout and JT wanted nothing to do with it. Then, going through the handshake line after the game, Alford walked alongside Tavernari, talking to him. In the words of Alford, he wanted to congratulate him on a great career. At some point the conversation turned heated, both parties clearly at fault. At the end of the conversation Alford could be heard saying: "I'll see you in Vegas too, punkass." Followed shortly by (Alford still): "you're an asshole." At which point Coach Dave Rose pulled Tavernari from the line and sent him to the locker room. At the request (and escort) of the Athletic Director, JT went to the Lobo locker room to apologize to Alford for his inappropriate behavior. I agree, what JT did was inappropriate, both during and after the game. However, what Alford did was inexcusable. You are a major D-I coach. This is a college kid, playing basketball, 22 years old. He doesn't know better. You should. Of course, Alford played for, and was mentored by, Bob Knight, so let's just be glad he didn't try to choke JT or throw a chair at him...
I would be surprised if anything more than a reprimand was issued by the league. Alford, in the MWC at least, is a first-time offender. But the MWC is going to have to figure out how to handle New Mexico in the future. They have a lot of characters on the team, but not a lot of character. History is on my side as well. It has been a program of thugs, supported by the most raucous and unsportsmanlike fans in the West. Throw in Alford now and it's amazing there haven't been more issues with the officials and the league. Roman Martinez is, by far, the class of the program. The guy is a baller. He works hard, he plays the game the right way, and he treats his opponents with class and respect. Every time an opponent gets on a run, he hits a three. He is also the ONLY player on the team that is not an Alford recruit.: they are definitely going to have issues with taunting and dirty play next year, with an entire roster full of Alford's guys. I have seen Darington Hobson on several occasions get warned for his "passionate" celebrations. Dairese Gary has been clean so far this year, but has had multiple run-ins with players and officials the first two years he played under Alford.
It will be interesting to see where New Mexico goes from here. I believe in Karma, and Alford might not have very much of it going into the tournaments. Barring a screw job by the Selection Committee, they should be able to advance to the Sweet 16. New Mexico will certainly get a 3-seed in the NCAAs, most likely in the South Regional, which finishes up in Houston. I would guess their first pod will be in Oklahoma City. If they win the MWC Tournament, they might be able to move up to the 2-line. The only way they play down to a 4-seed is if they lose to TCU to close the season and get bounced in round 1 at the conference tournament. Neither is likely and both happening is beyond unlikely. BYU is currently a solid 4-seed, but they can play their way down to the 5-line if they lose again in the regular season (at Utah and at TCU) or lose in the second round of the MWC Tournament (which looks like it will be against UNLV). If they win at Utah and at TCU, and advance to the MWC finals, they are a lock for a 4-seed. I think even winning the conference championship would leave them at a 4 seed.
As it stands right now:
New Mexico is guaranteed the #1 seed. 3-seed in the NCAAs.
BYU needs 1 win to clinch #2 or a UNLV loss. 4-seed in the NCAAs.
UNLV and SDSU are fighting for 3/4. UNLV holds the tie-breaker currently. I suspect they will tie in the standings, and UNLV will get the 3 seed in the tournament. They will get BYU in round 2, which is a better place for BYU to play them. UNLV is UNBEATABLE in the Final. You must knock them out early. With each game, they get a larger fan base. Either UNLV or SDSU will make the tourney between 10-12 in the seeding. I doubt both will make it unless they play each other in the MWC Championship game. The other gets a 1 or 2-seed in the NIT.
CSU-Utah are fighting for the 5/6. Utah is a game-up, but they play the final game of the year in Fort Collins. Utah can clinch the 5th seed with a win in either of their final two games and a CSU loss at SDSU. Neither will make the NCAAs. Both are possibilities for the NIT (assuming Utah is above .500). They will definitely both play in the postseason, even if it is the CIT (former CBI).
TCU is solidly in 7th and is very unlikely to move up with its final games against New Mexico and BYU. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
Wyoming and Air Force have clinched the 8/9 play-in game. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
For those of you who missed what happened (and if you watched the game you probably did since they NEVER talked about it), here is a summary, based on what Sportscenter discussed, what Alford said happened, what Jim Rayburn (BYU Sportsbeat writer) and Greg Wrubell said happened, and what Youtube videos show:
With about 50 seconds left, Darington Hobson threw an intentional elbow into Jonathan Tavernari's chest. JT wanted the official to make a call and went nuts when he didn't. Hobson came over for a handshake following the timeout and JT wanted nothing to do with it. Then, going through the handshake line after the game, Alford walked alongside Tavernari, talking to him. In the words of Alford, he wanted to congratulate him on a great career. At some point the conversation turned heated, both parties clearly at fault. At the end of the conversation Alford could be heard saying: "I'll see you in Vegas too, punkass." Followed shortly by (Alford still): "you're an asshole." At which point Coach Dave Rose pulled Tavernari from the line and sent him to the locker room. At the request (and escort) of the Athletic Director, JT went to the Lobo locker room to apologize to Alford for his inappropriate behavior. I agree, what JT did was inappropriate, both during and after the game. However, what Alford did was inexcusable. You are a major D-I coach. This is a college kid, playing basketball, 22 years old. He doesn't know better. You should. Of course, Alford played for, and was mentored by, Bob Knight, so let's just be glad he didn't try to choke JT or throw a chair at him...
I would be surprised if anything more than a reprimand was issued by the league. Alford, in the MWC at least, is a first-time offender. But the MWC is going to have to figure out how to handle New Mexico in the future. They have a lot of characters on the team, but not a lot of character. History is on my side as well. It has been a program of thugs, supported by the most raucous and unsportsmanlike fans in the West. Throw in Alford now and it's amazing there haven't been more issues with the officials and the league. Roman Martinez is, by far, the class of the program. The guy is a baller. He works hard, he plays the game the right way, and he treats his opponents with class and respect. Every time an opponent gets on a run, he hits a three. He is also the ONLY player on the team that is not an Alford recruit.: they are definitely going to have issues with taunting and dirty play next year, with an entire roster full of Alford's guys. I have seen Darington Hobson on several occasions get warned for his "passionate" celebrations. Dairese Gary has been clean so far this year, but has had multiple run-ins with players and officials the first two years he played under Alford.
It will be interesting to see where New Mexico goes from here. I believe in Karma, and Alford might not have very much of it going into the tournaments. Barring a screw job by the Selection Committee, they should be able to advance to the Sweet 16. New Mexico will certainly get a 3-seed in the NCAAs, most likely in the South Regional, which finishes up in Houston. I would guess their first pod will be in Oklahoma City. If they win the MWC Tournament, they might be able to move up to the 2-line. The only way they play down to a 4-seed is if they lose to TCU to close the season and get bounced in round 1 at the conference tournament. Neither is likely and both happening is beyond unlikely. BYU is currently a solid 4-seed, but they can play their way down to the 5-line if they lose again in the regular season (at Utah and at TCU) or lose in the second round of the MWC Tournament (which looks like it will be against UNLV). If they win at Utah and at TCU, and advance to the MWC finals, they are a lock for a 4-seed. I think even winning the conference championship would leave them at a 4 seed.
As it stands right now:
New Mexico is guaranteed the #1 seed. 3-seed in the NCAAs.
BYU needs 1 win to clinch #2 or a UNLV loss. 4-seed in the NCAAs.
UNLV and SDSU are fighting for 3/4. UNLV holds the tie-breaker currently. I suspect they will tie in the standings, and UNLV will get the 3 seed in the tournament. They will get BYU in round 2, which is a better place for BYU to play them. UNLV is UNBEATABLE in the Final. You must knock them out early. With each game, they get a larger fan base. Either UNLV or SDSU will make the tourney between 10-12 in the seeding. I doubt both will make it unless they play each other in the MWC Championship game. The other gets a 1 or 2-seed in the NIT.
CSU-Utah are fighting for the 5/6. Utah is a game-up, but they play the final game of the year in Fort Collins. Utah can clinch the 5th seed with a win in either of their final two games and a CSU loss at SDSU. Neither will make the NCAAs. Both are possibilities for the NIT (assuming Utah is above .500). They will definitely both play in the postseason, even if it is the CIT (former CBI).
TCU is solidly in 7th and is very unlikely to move up with its final games against New Mexico and BYU. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
Wyoming and Air Force have clinched the 8/9 play-in game. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
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