Well, rough weekend for BYU. It got really, really exposed in a lot of ways.
First off, basketball. Matt Carlino single-handedly prevented BYU from having any chance to compete with Florida State. Cusick needs to start, and not shoot as much. There is no bench beyond Nate Austin (and that includes a bench that SHOULD include Carlino). Davies will work his foul trouble out. Haws is going to make a run at WCC Player of the Year too. Anson Winder needs to recover and get back in the starting lineup. Josh Sharp needs to exit the starting lineup. He is a great energy guy. He can come in off the bench and play D, block some shots, grab some boards, but he is an absolute liability on offense. This team needs guys who COULD score in the starting lineup, otherwise BYU will dig a lot of early holes this season. Granted, FSU and ND were two solid opponents, but there are plenty more to come and BYU looked mentally and physically beat with 10 minutes to play in both games over the weekend. They will struggle all season, and especially on the road in the WCC if Carlino doesn't pick it up (among other things).
Now, football. Several grievances, and usually I'm a little more calm about these things, but there was a BYU game on national TV Saturday night and there were three other games I was watching and didn't even care to flip to it until the second quarter. I watched until halftime and went to bed. AND I WRITE A FREAKING BYU SPORTS BLOG. If I not only don't get excited to watch but actually cannot stand to watch it, opting to watch other games and go to bed...it's bad.
Riley Nelson: not good. Bronco defends the QB today, saying he does everything to help the team win and he gets too much blame. False. The one thing he hasn't done that would help the team win: step aside and let someone with an arm lead the team. OK, Bronco, we get it, Riley gives it his all. That is great. But it is not good enough to try hard if there is no ability behind it. Tebow is a great story, but he'll never be THE guy in the NFL because he belongs on the bench. The whole situation is mre unfair to BRONCO'S defense. They don't have a chance when they go up against a quality opponent.
So, second grievance: Bronco's unwillingness to see that Riley, while similar to a young, try-hard, Bronco Mendenhall, is simply not good enough to play. Bronco continues to defend Riley's mediocrity on the field of play. If a LB or FS sucked as bad as Riley did, he would get yanked off the field in a hurry, regardless of effort.
Third grievance: Brandon Doman also misidentifies his team's strengths and weaknesses. BYU has a good running game, but it is far from a power running game. Yet on 3rd and short after 3rd and short he employs the power running game with ZERO success. If that wasn't enough, he goes to that well on 4th and short too, after failing to convert on 3rd and short. BYU has a mobile, senior QB (who you have chosen to leave in the game b/c he's not hurt enough to pull: if he can't run a simple bootleg, sit him on the bench! What is he good for then? Leadership in huddle? Great, put him at FB), who would do well on a bootleg with a run-throw option. Instead, he trusts a 17-year old true freshman running behind an awful O-Line against a defense stacked to stop runs up the middle.
I don't know how to rank these three grievances. If Bronco would let BYU play a QB that would move the offense CONSISTENTLY, if Doman would play to his strengths and use his assets, or if Riley were any good, BYU would be 10-1. Any of the three and BYU would absolutely, positively be 10-1. Dare I say it, maybe even 11-0 b/c BYU going stagnant at ND cost them that game in the 2nd half and Riley's late game anti-heroics cost them Oregon State.
Bronco, Doman, and Riley cost millions of BYU fans an entire season. I think it will be hard to get people excited next year. Yes, those in Provo will be excited about the home schedule. Those fans in Virginia, Texas, and the Midwest (and surrounding areas) will be excited for BYU road games to come near to them. I can guarantee you, ESPN does not care about how many butts end up in the seats for those games! ESPN wants to know how many people are tuning in for those games. If I am not tuning in from kickoff to sack-fumble-loss for a nationaly televised game, BYU has some troubles on the horizon. Bronco has some decisions to make. Given his inability to pull the trigger on hard decisions (if one would call the need to bench Riley Nelson really that "hard"), Holmoe may have to force his hand. Doman wasn't ready to be a Coordinator. I think it's his head that's going to roll. After all, something big needs to change, one of the coordinators needs to go: and the other one is Bronco, so...
Monday, November 19, 2012
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Updated Thoughts on BYU Hoops 11/17/2012
It seemed pretty clear to me that BYU was going to struggle with solid defensive teams. Carlino flails too much to handle it. Cusick is too slow to do anything about it. Delgado is too inexperienced to consistently deal with it. The Seminoles have now given the WCC a blueprint for beating BYU.
Now the team battled back in the first half, but they were clearly overmatched against an above average ACC team, maybe even a good ACC team. They couldn't stay out of foul trouble. They couldn't finish at the basket (i.e. absorb contact and shoot strong: which draws fouls and makes you more likely to make it). Instead they wilted under Florida State's physicality. They couldn't defend the three. The bench was clearly not up to the task on either side of the ball. If not for Haws, BYU would have been down 20 or more going into halftime. If not for Davies' risky 5 minutes played after his second foul in the first half, BYU also would have been down 20 at the half. Neither one ended up mattering in the second half.
Either way, BYU has a long way to go. The Cougars needed to calm down and play basketball. They got panicked by pressure. They got impatient. They couldn't defend the three or at the rim. They looked like an overmatched mid-major against the big, bad ACC. It'll probaby happen again tonight too against Notre Dame (but replace ACC-for now-with Big East).
The combo of Haws and Davies will be tough for most teams to stop on BYU's schedule. But the lack of talent around them this year makes this look a lot more like an NIT team than an NCAA team. Luckily for them, few WCC teams can apply the same type of pressure consistently for 40 minutes like Florida State did. The bad news, however, is that there are enough of them that can, making a third place WCC finish look all the more likely.
Now the team battled back in the first half, but they were clearly overmatched against an above average ACC team, maybe even a good ACC team. They couldn't stay out of foul trouble. They couldn't finish at the basket (i.e. absorb contact and shoot strong: which draws fouls and makes you more likely to make it). Instead they wilted under Florida State's physicality. They couldn't defend the three. The bench was clearly not up to the task on either side of the ball. If not for Haws, BYU would have been down 20 or more going into halftime. If not for Davies' risky 5 minutes played after his second foul in the first half, BYU also would have been down 20 at the half. Neither one ended up mattering in the second half.
Either way, BYU has a long way to go. The Cougars needed to calm down and play basketball. They got panicked by pressure. They got impatient. They couldn't defend the three or at the rim. They looked like an overmatched mid-major against the big, bad ACC. It'll probaby happen again tonight too against Notre Dame (but replace ACC-for now-with Big East).
The combo of Haws and Davies will be tough for most teams to stop on BYU's schedule. But the lack of talent around them this year makes this look a lot more like an NIT team than an NCAA team. Luckily for them, few WCC teams can apply the same type of pressure consistently for 40 minutes like Florida State did. The bad news, however, is that there are enough of them that can, making a third place WCC finish look all the more likely.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Updated BYU Hoops Thoughts, 11/13/2012
After watching BYU's opening game against Tennessee Tech, I have the same thoughts about the team: there are some very good players, on a very good defensive team, that is going to struggle to score points against good defensive teams, especially on the road.
The next three opponents (Georgia State, Florida State, and ND/Saint Joe's) all seem to be good defensive teams. Other such non-conference opponents coming up later in the year are Montana, Utah State, and Virginia Tech. That isn't to say there aren't quality opponents out there on the schedule: certainly Iowa State and Baylor are formidable opponents, playing at Weber State is difficult as well, but BYU won't lose any of those games b/c those teams play outstanding D.
Georgia State will give BYU more grief than Tennessee Tech was able to, but ultimately the altitude and the crowd probably help BYU score enough points to beat them away (I think a pace towards 72 points would be enough to keep the game in hand throughout). However, Florida State and ND/Saint Joe's will not be played in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center. BYU will probably be lucky to put up 65 points, based on what I've seen from BYU and what I know of their personnel. So those games will come down to BYU's ability to get stops. Win them both and there are opportunities to start something special. Lose them both and an NIT berth awaits. A split and BYU can continue to stay on the bubble!
I think BYU wins tonight about 74-65. They'll need Davies to step up and dominate the paint against a bigger guy, they'll need to do better at the free throw line, and they'll need to get more than 3 offensive rebounds to help break Georgia State's zone D!
The next three opponents (Georgia State, Florida State, and ND/Saint Joe's) all seem to be good defensive teams. Other such non-conference opponents coming up later in the year are Montana, Utah State, and Virginia Tech. That isn't to say there aren't quality opponents out there on the schedule: certainly Iowa State and Baylor are formidable opponents, playing at Weber State is difficult as well, but BYU won't lose any of those games b/c those teams play outstanding D.
Georgia State will give BYU more grief than Tennessee Tech was able to, but ultimately the altitude and the crowd probably help BYU score enough points to beat them away (I think a pace towards 72 points would be enough to keep the game in hand throughout). However, Florida State and ND/Saint Joe's will not be played in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center. BYU will probably be lucky to put up 65 points, based on what I've seen from BYU and what I know of their personnel. So those games will come down to BYU's ability to get stops. Win them both and there are opportunities to start something special. Lose them both and an NIT berth awaits. A split and BYU can continue to stay on the bubble!
I think BYU wins tonight about 74-65. They'll need Davies to step up and dominate the paint against a bigger guy, they'll need to do better at the free throw line, and they'll need to get more than 3 offensive rebounds to help break Georgia State's zone D!
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Idaho-BYU Prediction, 11/10/2012
This one is simple:
BYU average to mediocre offense (occasional glimpses of slightly above average) vs. Idaho mediocre defense. Edge: BYU.
BYU superb defense vs. Idaho mediocre offense. Edge: BYU. Big.
Cold Provo weather vs. Late night game. Edge: not the fans.
Bronco Mendenhall and set staff vs. Idaho coaching shuffle. Edge: BYU.
I'm guessing this isn't as big of a blowout as it should be, but I suspect BYU scores near 40 points and gives up 10. We'll call it 41-10.
Next week will be BYU's last game that resembles a challenge in any way this season, depending on the bowl game matchup (which is likely to be SDSU or Fresno State at this point).
As for BYU's bowl matchup, I'd put my money on Boise State or SDSU winning the MWC. If Boise wins, they'll go to Vegas and SDSU will go to Poinsettia. If SDSU wins it, they'll go to Vegas and Poinsettia probably selects Fresno State ahead of Boise State, Air Force, and Nevada (though as a BYU fan, I'd rather see Air Force, to me, that was the biggest loss when BYU left the MWC!). I could be wrong and Fresno State wins the MWC, in which case it's probably still SDSU playing BYU.
You want a real prediction here: SDSU ties with Boise State for the MWC crown and then the Vegas Bowl has to decide...I think they go with the 10-2 top 25 Broncos and that the 9-3 unranked Aztecs stay in San Diego.
BYU average to mediocre offense (occasional glimpses of slightly above average) vs. Idaho mediocre defense. Edge: BYU.
BYU superb defense vs. Idaho mediocre offense. Edge: BYU. Big.
Cold Provo weather vs. Late night game. Edge: not the fans.
Bronco Mendenhall and set staff vs. Idaho coaching shuffle. Edge: BYU.
I'm guessing this isn't as big of a blowout as it should be, but I suspect BYU scores near 40 points and gives up 10. We'll call it 41-10.
Next week will be BYU's last game that resembles a challenge in any way this season, depending on the bowl game matchup (which is likely to be SDSU or Fresno State at this point).
As for BYU's bowl matchup, I'd put my money on Boise State or SDSU winning the MWC. If Boise wins, they'll go to Vegas and SDSU will go to Poinsettia. If SDSU wins it, they'll go to Vegas and Poinsettia probably selects Fresno State ahead of Boise State, Air Force, and Nevada (though as a BYU fan, I'd rather see Air Force, to me, that was the biggest loss when BYU left the MWC!). I could be wrong and Fresno State wins the MWC, in which case it's probably still SDSU playing BYU.
You want a real prediction here: SDSU ties with Boise State for the MWC crown and then the Vegas Bowl has to decide...I think they go with the 10-2 top 25 Broncos and that the 9-3 unranked Aztecs stay in San Diego.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Early Thoughts/Predictions on BYU Hoops 2012-2013
I'd love to have been able to post these past few weeks a bit more, but projects, exams, and election results have been kicking my butt. Luckily, only the latter disappointed me!
So, having eyed BYU in the preseason I am happy to report that Cougar Fans have an exciting basketball team. However, I really believe this is going to be a frustrating season.
For starters, there are only 3 guys that belong in the starting lineup on any team that has designs to compete for a conference title and an NCAA tournament bid, and one of them probably isn't going to start. Haws and Davies are NBA-type talents, in my opinion. Craig Cusick is exactly the kind of calming presence BYU will need as they open games on the road. BYU has 3 "6th man of the year" candidates, but at least two of them will start. Nate Austin, Brock Zylstra, and Matt Carlino (at least the end-of-season Carlino) are come-off-the-bench, provide-a-spark kind of guys. Carlino will start. At least one of the other two will, if not both.
Josh Sharp is that 8th or 9th type of guy that can come in and play a few minutes of hard-nosed defense and frustrate some super-star 3/4. What BYU is missing is that 7th or 8th man ahead of Sharp and after whoever ends up being the ACTUAL 6th man out of the 4 candidates. There are a few candidates there for 7/8 with Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert, and Harward, but I don't put much stock into what I saw against over-matched exhibition teams. And I'm not sure any of the 4 can consistently deliver consistent offensive performances. I am confident their defensive performances will be consistent, just not the right kind of consistency BYU fans would want.
I'll admit I haven't been tracking (and I watched the games with no sound so didn't hear either) so I don't know how long Anson Winder will be out. He's a great starter at the shooting guard. If he's healthy (and Cusick starts), I would really like BYU's starting 5, regardless of who is at the PF. That would also solve the 7th/8th man problem BYU has as Austin, Zylstra, or Carlino would naturally slide into the 7th/8th man. With Winder, I like the depth of BYU a lot better.
I was a little saddened by the loss of Chris Collinsworth. Then when Stephen Rogers went down it was quite disheartening (and I posted such in this space about the depth issues that presents for BYU at 3/4/5 in terms of NCAAs and WCC Titles). Afterwards, to see Anson Winder in a tie those exhibition games was like seeing America re-elect a failed, divisive uber-liberal for president. Decisively.
I still don't upgrade my opinions about this basketball TEAM after seeing them play, though I love what I'm seeing from Davies and Haws. However, there is no consistent back-up to Davies, especially if Austin starts. Carlino still runs around like a squirrel hyped up on crack, so I don't count on him for consistency at the point guard. One of the 4 new guys might step up, but I didn't see any future stars there. Ultimately, what it comes down to is three things: 1) Can Carlino, Cusick, and Zylstra deliver in the big games, while not screwing up in the other games? 2) Can Davies dominant the paint so badly that BYU can handle some poor perimeter defending and inconsistent shooting outside? 3) Can Tyler Haws be THE guy. For 30+ games.
1) Carlino generally played great in big games, no doubt. But it was those mid-level teams that he struggled against. He'd drop 30 in the spotlight. Then have 6 turnovers in the next game. Zylstra is the opposite: he's good for 20 when it doesn't matter and 0-20 when it does. I don't know why Rose doesn't play Cusick more.
2) When Davies woke up against Baylor last season, it was awesome. He played like a beast for most of the rest of the season. He needs to come out of the gates like that if he wants to be WCC POY. And if BYU is going to have time to acclimate to early games against FSU and ND/St. Joe's, Davies is going to have to control the middle.
3) Tyler Haws is a special player. He will be one of the BYU greats. He hasn't missed a beat after being gone for two years. Can his body hold up in late January and February and consistently produce? If so, he can be the kind of guy that is un-coverable for WCC teams. Especially if he can shoot the three at a reasonable volume without hurting his percentage. He's more of a catch and shoot kind of guy from deep, but good is good. I think if BYU is going to do something noteworthy this season, he will have to carry them through a couple of contests.
BYU is probably about 12-3 in non-conference play, maybe 11-4. Conference play obviously will depend on if BYU has injuries or finds production out of the newer players, however, I'll go ahead and go out on a limb and say 12-4. At 24-7, they'll be 3rd seed in the conference tourney and win until they match up with St. Mary's or Gonzaga (my money's on SMC winning WCC again). At 25-8, they are a bubble team. The difference of getting in will probably depend on how strong the middle third of the WCC ends up being.
So, having eyed BYU in the preseason I am happy to report that Cougar Fans have an exciting basketball team. However, I really believe this is going to be a frustrating season.
For starters, there are only 3 guys that belong in the starting lineup on any team that has designs to compete for a conference title and an NCAA tournament bid, and one of them probably isn't going to start. Haws and Davies are NBA-type talents, in my opinion. Craig Cusick is exactly the kind of calming presence BYU will need as they open games on the road. BYU has 3 "6th man of the year" candidates, but at least two of them will start. Nate Austin, Brock Zylstra, and Matt Carlino (at least the end-of-season Carlino) are come-off-the-bench, provide-a-spark kind of guys. Carlino will start. At least one of the other two will, if not both.
Josh Sharp is that 8th or 9th type of guy that can come in and play a few minutes of hard-nosed defense and frustrate some super-star 3/4. What BYU is missing is that 7th or 8th man ahead of Sharp and after whoever ends up being the ACTUAL 6th man out of the 4 candidates. There are a few candidates there for 7/8 with Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert, and Harward, but I don't put much stock into what I saw against over-matched exhibition teams. And I'm not sure any of the 4 can consistently deliver consistent offensive performances. I am confident their defensive performances will be consistent, just not the right kind of consistency BYU fans would want.
I'll admit I haven't been tracking (and I watched the games with no sound so didn't hear either) so I don't know how long Anson Winder will be out. He's a great starter at the shooting guard. If he's healthy (and Cusick starts), I would really like BYU's starting 5, regardless of who is at the PF. That would also solve the 7th/8th man problem BYU has as Austin, Zylstra, or Carlino would naturally slide into the 7th/8th man. With Winder, I like the depth of BYU a lot better.
I was a little saddened by the loss of Chris Collinsworth. Then when Stephen Rogers went down it was quite disheartening (and I posted such in this space about the depth issues that presents for BYU at 3/4/5 in terms of NCAAs and WCC Titles). Afterwards, to see Anson Winder in a tie those exhibition games was like seeing America re-elect a failed, divisive uber-liberal for president. Decisively.
I still don't upgrade my opinions about this basketball TEAM after seeing them play, though I love what I'm seeing from Davies and Haws. However, there is no consistent back-up to Davies, especially if Austin starts. Carlino still runs around like a squirrel hyped up on crack, so I don't count on him for consistency at the point guard. One of the 4 new guys might step up, but I didn't see any future stars there. Ultimately, what it comes down to is three things: 1) Can Carlino, Cusick, and Zylstra deliver in the big games, while not screwing up in the other games? 2) Can Davies dominant the paint so badly that BYU can handle some poor perimeter defending and inconsistent shooting outside? 3) Can Tyler Haws be THE guy. For 30+ games.
1) Carlino generally played great in big games, no doubt. But it was those mid-level teams that he struggled against. He'd drop 30 in the spotlight. Then have 6 turnovers in the next game. Zylstra is the opposite: he's good for 20 when it doesn't matter and 0-20 when it does. I don't know why Rose doesn't play Cusick more.
2) When Davies woke up against Baylor last season, it was awesome. He played like a beast for most of the rest of the season. He needs to come out of the gates like that if he wants to be WCC POY. And if BYU is going to have time to acclimate to early games against FSU and ND/St. Joe's, Davies is going to have to control the middle.
3) Tyler Haws is a special player. He will be one of the BYU greats. He hasn't missed a beat after being gone for two years. Can his body hold up in late January and February and consistently produce? If so, he can be the kind of guy that is un-coverable for WCC teams. Especially if he can shoot the three at a reasonable volume without hurting his percentage. He's more of a catch and shoot kind of guy from deep, but good is good. I think if BYU is going to do something noteworthy this season, he will have to carry them through a couple of contests.
BYU is probably about 12-3 in non-conference play, maybe 11-4. Conference play obviously will depend on if BYU has injuries or finds production out of the newer players, however, I'll go ahead and go out on a limb and say 12-4. At 24-7, they'll be 3rd seed in the conference tourney and win until they match up with St. Mary's or Gonzaga (my money's on SMC winning WCC again). At 25-8, they are a bubble team. The difference of getting in will probably depend on how strong the middle third of the WCC ends up being.
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