BYU's 2014 Football Schedule Announced

Tom Holmoe announced BYU's 2014 Football Schedule last night.  There were no big surprises announced.  The biggest surprise was what was NOT announced: a bowl game.  In terms of expectations for 2014, I'll look one game/team at a time.

I repeat what I have said previously though, I believe BYU is another average season away from failing its independent experiment.  If BYU does not win 10 games and spend at least some time in the rankings during 2014, I believe the end is nigh for BYU's potential to become relevant nationally.  In 2015, their September schedule could put them back on the map, but if BYU isn't good enough to win 10 games in 2014, I don't see them competing at Nebraska or at Michigan in 2015...this might be it Cougar fans.  Let's hope not!

@Connecticut
On paper this is a game that BYU should not struggle with.  However, UConn has the kind of offense that BYU defenses have struggled with in the past.  They were very young last season and lost their first 9 games before gaining some momentum to close the season with 3 straight wins, including one over Rutgers who was bowl eligible.  They have a small, shifty running back and an NFL-type WR that they target often.  The QB situation is very much in flux.  With a new coaching staff, it's unclear how the O will take shape.  However, their new OC ran more of a spread option type of offense at CMU the past 4 seasons.

Bob Diaco, Notre Dame's former DC, is the new head coach and is familiar with BYU, having coached against, and stifled, BYU's offense the past 2 seasons.  He doesn't have the type of players he had at ND, but familiarity is familiarity and completely shutting down is completely shutting down: he has done that to BYU before.  Combine that with BYU's typical "start the season slow" on offense and we may have a tight game.  But, again, on paper, BYU should win.

@Texas
Two games, two new coaching staffs.  While the coaching staff may not remember what happened in Provo last year, the Longhorn players will be out for some pay back.  They lost some star power on both sides of the ball, but if they return committed to running the football, they will be tough to stop.  David Ash should enter 2014 as the unquestioned leader at QB, which is an advantage UT has not had since Colt McCoy graduated.  This will be BYU's toughest game.

Houston
This is a Thursday night game on ESPN.  Last year's game was an instant classic (for BYU fans at least).  Houston brings all the skill position players back from a team that was a handful of plays from being undefeated.  This one should be a great game.  With the game coming 5 days after playing at Texas, I suspect BYU will have some troubles here...

Virginia
BYU has a nice long rest after Houston to take on a Virginia team that basically spoiled BYU's start from the get-go.  It's not a very good team.  BYU will either have some momentum coming into this game or be trying to salvage a season already gone awry.  Virginia only loses a few people in the trenches.  But again, this was a bad team last year and BYU should NOT lose to them.

Utah State (after a bye)
I suspect that Utah State will settle back into their spot as third fiddle in the state of Utah in a few years, but they still have a chance to make a statement in 2014.  They have some positive momentum as a program for now.  It is difficult to say whether Coach Wells takes the typical path of Utah State coaches and makes the year about beating BYU or if he focuses on the MWC title, which they could have a shot at this season.  If his focus this offseason is on Tennessee and MWC, then BYU wins.  If Chuckie wants payback and the Aggies put BYU first and foremost, this becomes a bit more difficult.

@UCF
The Knights shocked the college football world (or at least the casual college football fan) by beating Baylor this past season in the Fiesta Bowl.  They have slowly been building a great football program the past few seasons.  BYU fans remember the tight game the Cougars played against them in 2011.  They play physical in the trenches, are very balanced on offense, and are extremely aggressive defensively.  It will be interesting to see how they respond in 2014 without Blake Bortles at QB and Storm Johnson at RB.  This is another tough game, though BYU fans may not see it as such.  Sometimes Cougar Nation pays too much attention to their team and brand to see some of the shifts happening in the outside world!  UCF is a good program.

Nevada
This is a game BYU has to win and not struggle in.  Nevada struggled under first year head coach Brian Polian last season.  They showed some bright spots in 2013, and they certainly had BYU on the ropes in 2013's contest, but these are the games BYU has to win, no problem, to be successful as an independent.  They will be a fairly veteran team, particularly on offense.  Their QB is mobile and experienced, but BYU has really improved the past 3 years against those types of QBs.  With the game in Provo, it shouldn't be an issue.

@Boise State
BYU has not won in Boise before.  However, with Chris Petersen moving on to Washington, and Boise seemingly on a downward trend after 7 years of complete dominance, there is potentially no better time to sneak a win up there.  Grant Hedrick could be a great QB (though had his worst start of 2013 against BYU), Jay Ajayi ran for 151 yards at BYU, and Matt Miller had 5 100-yard games in 2013.  It's not an easy task, but if not in 2014, then when will BYU get a win in Boise?  Bryan Harsin is in his second year as a head coach, first at Boise State.  That's the perfect opportunity to show what a veteran coach can do.  So Bronco, show them!

@Middle Tennessee
This is another should win for BYU.  On the road, against an average-at-best team that BYU manhandled in 2013.  This was BYU's biggest point spread in 2013 against an FBS opponent.  MTU loses its QB and one of its WRs, but they really are more of a system that isn't reliant on any one member.  I wouldn't anticipate a close game, but crazy things happen to BYU on the road sometimes.

UNLV (after a bye)
The Rebels played in (and lost) their first bowl game in over a decade in 2013.  Did they turn a proverbial corner or was it just a down year in the MWC?  Or was their schedule just that easy?  They had a senior QB and RB that really helped shoulder the load for them in 2013.  Their leading WR was back who had a great year, in spite of some inconsistent play.  I did watch him catch a couple of extremely impressive TDs in one of their games last year (don't recall which game).  Another must win (big) for BYU.

Savannah State
FCS team, enough said.

@California
This could be an intriguing matchup.  Obviously, Cal was awful in 2013.  They got blown out in everyone FBS game they played excluding one (Arizona).  Even 4-win Colorado laid the wood to the Bears.  But many coaches see significant improvement in year two as players adjust to their coaching style and the strength and conditioning programs they put in place.  Sonny Dykes saw a 3-win improvement in his 2nd year at Louisiana Tech.  I'd be shocked if he didn't see a few more wins in 2014, but mostly b/c they only had 1.  Jared Goff has the potential to be a very good QB if Dykes can figure out how to keep him healthy for the season.  He needs to work on his arm strength a bit, but he has good touch on the deep ball and made good decisions in the few games I saw of him.  Although, the guy was getting killed, so maybe he has a strong arm when he's 100%...

The Season
There is not a single game on the schedule that should be overwhelming for BYU.  BYU lost a lot on defense.  If Bronco can fill in those gaps and find some more consistent threats in the passing game, Taysom Hill is going to get his if he's healthy.  BYU should be capable of getting 11 wins, but there are plenty of games they could drop.  If they don't really start clicking on offense and find themselves involved in a lot of close games, I believe BYU will lose its fair share of them in 2014.

Anson Winder and BYU's Success in 2014

I fully believe that Anson Winder is the key to BYU this season.  His lockdown defense has been sorely missed in BYU's losses.  I have watched as he sat on the bench multiple times in the 2nd half while BYU's lead was whittling away.  In BYU's biggest wins, I have seen him play and lock down folks in the 2nd half, as he did on the road against St. Mary's this past weekend.  In losses against Portland, Pacific, Oregon, and Pepperdine, he played a very limited role as BYU gave up large amounts of points in the 2nd half.

So, I sat down tonight with his stats and the results of BYU's games.  I ran 30 regressions trying to pinpoint what his impact means.  There were a few more variables I would like to have/include in the model, but this is a part-time hobby for me and I'm a full-time student, so I did the best I could.  The short answer: I had a hard time finding a meaningful relationship between Anson Winder's performance (and/or minutes played) and the outcome of the game.  The correlation between Anson Winder's minutes on the margin of victory was usually positive, but only one time was it a statistically significant variable.

To summarize what that one model predicts where it was significant: if BYU is going to win a road game, Anson Winder must play at least 17 minutes.  In BYU's road wins, he averaged 15.75 minutes.  In BYU's road losses, he averaged just 10.5 minutes.  The model wasn't too crazy then I suppose in terms of minutes and margin.  It only accounted for 27% of the variation in margin of victory (i.e. the adjusted R-squared for you stats geeks).  So, after 30 tries, I have one model that doesn't really say anything, and has limited predictive power, but it did kind of show that Anson Winder has a non-zero, non-negative impact on BYU's margin of victory (or defeat).  Of course, there were 29 models that said his impact was not distinguishable from 0...

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe BYU doesn't need Anson Winder's defense.  I think if I had a few more spare hours and a few more variables, I could find a way to quantify his meaning.  My gut tells me that BYU's defense sucks, but Anson Winder is a great defender and they could use him, particularly away from home.  Unfortunately, math and science tell me I'm wrong...BYU just loses road game after road game for some other reason besides him sitting on the bench...either way, I'm tired of watching the same guys lose games.  I'm ready to see more of Anson Winder, particularly when BYU has leads in the 2nd half!