Thursday's prediction.
#35: The SEC will have the best non-conference home record for a BCS conference. I teetered a bit between the SEC and the Big 12. I would say statistically speaking, the Big 12 has a slightly easier home schedule, but there is no Iowa State, Baylor, K-State, or A&M in the SEC that could lose to any one, at any time, for any reason.
SEC and Big 12 by the numbers:
SEC plays 79% of its non-conference games at home
29% of those are against I-AA teams
67% of I-A opponents are from non-BCS conferences (5 of the 18 went to bowl games last season)
6 of their 9 BCS opponents went to bowl games last season (0 BCS games)
4 of their games with BCS opponents are "rivalry" games
Big 12 plays 69% of its non-conference games at home
27% of those are against I-AA teams
83% of I-A opponents are from non-BCS conferences (7 of the 20 went to bowl games last season)
3 of their 4 BCS opponents went to bowl games last season (0 BCS games)
1 of their games with BCS opponents is a "rivalry" game
More BCS opponents and more rivalry games by the SEC makes their road a little tougher, but you'll see both conferences win over 90% of their non-conference home games. The SEC will come out with a slightly higher percentage though, according to Mo Knows, because, top to bottom, they will be a better league this season after a one-year hiatus from the "best conference in the country"crown.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
65 predictions, #36
Wednesday's prediction.
#36: The Big East will have the worst non-conference home record for a BCS conference, winning somewhere around 75% of games, which sounds pretty good, until you look at how easy the non-conference slate is. Here's a breakdown, by the numbers, of their non-conference home games.
40% of non-conference home games are against I-AA teams. Second only to the ACC, who plays 46% of theirs against I-AA teams.
32% are against non-BCS teams. Half of those non-BCS teams did not go to a bowl game last season. Is this sounding easy yet?
Of their 7 non-conference home games against BCS teams, none of the 7 have won their conference (or won their division within their conference) in the last 5 years. Only 3 of the 7 have had a 10-win season in the last decade (only one of those taking place in the last 5 years, Notre Dame with Brady Quinn, and that seems like ages ago, doesn't it?).
So with that easy of a schedule, how do I justify picking them to have the worst record? Easy: they by far are the worst BCS conference, they might not even be the best non-BCS conference. A side note: this isn't even the easiest (or second easiest) non-conference home schedule among BCS conferences. More to come on that later.
#36: The Big East will have the worst non-conference home record for a BCS conference, winning somewhere around 75% of games, which sounds pretty good, until you look at how easy the non-conference slate is. Here's a breakdown, by the numbers, of their non-conference home games.
40% of non-conference home games are against I-AA teams. Second only to the ACC, who plays 46% of theirs against I-AA teams.
32% are against non-BCS teams. Half of those non-BCS teams did not go to a bowl game last season. Is this sounding easy yet?
Of their 7 non-conference home games against BCS teams, none of the 7 have won their conference (or won their division within their conference) in the last 5 years. Only 3 of the 7 have had a 10-win season in the last decade (only one of those taking place in the last 5 years, Notre Dame with Brady Quinn, and that seems like ages ago, doesn't it?).
So with that easy of a schedule, how do I justify picking them to have the worst record? Easy: they by far are the worst BCS conference, they might not even be the best non-BCS conference. A side note: this isn't even the easiest (or second easiest) non-conference home schedule among BCS conferences. More to come on that later.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
65 predictions, #37
For Monday's prediction I said that Oklahoma State should get used to the feeling of embarrassment. Well, they start with Georgia at home, week 1, Saturday afternoon, 39 days from now.
#37: Oklahoma State will definitely have reason to be embarrassed against the Georgia Bulldogs, the season-opener and home-opener. They will have a few 3 and outs on O. Their D will give up quite a bit of yardage on the ground to this blue-collar Bulldog team (they won't be as flashy this year without Stafford and Moreno, but they will be TOUGH). But...never underestimate the Cowboys at home. I would normally give the edge here to the Cowboys, but I think Georgia is on a mission. Georgia wins in one of the best games of the first weekend. The Bulldogs won't collapse until later in the season. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of stumbling out of the gate, thus crushing expectations before they get too high...
#37: Oklahoma State will definitely have reason to be embarrassed against the Georgia Bulldogs, the season-opener and home-opener. They will have a few 3 and outs on O. Their D will give up quite a bit of yardage on the ground to this blue-collar Bulldog team (they won't be as flashy this year without Stafford and Moreno, but they will be TOUGH). But...never underestimate the Cowboys at home. I would normally give the edge here to the Cowboys, but I think Georgia is on a mission. Georgia wins in one of the best games of the first weekend. The Bulldogs won't collapse until later in the season. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of stumbling out of the gate, thus crushing expectations before they get too high...
65 predictions, #38
Monday's prediction (sorry, I'm a little behind: buying a house this week and all)
#38: Oregon and Oklahoma State will both be embarrassed again this season. The Oregon QB stated last week how embarrassing it was to lose to Boise State last season and how they would avoid any such embarrassment again this season. I'm sure that makes the target on his back just a little bit bigger for opening night.
An Oklahoma State LB then countered this week by talking about how embarrassing their Holiday Bowl loss was to Oregon, as the Ducks shredded the Oklahoma State D for over 300 rushing yards. I got news for both guys: get used to it. Opportunities for the Cowboys D to get shredded come at home against Georgia, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Colorado and on the road against A&M, Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. The Oregon Ducks will face several potential embarrassments this season as well: at Boise State, Purdue, Utah, and pick your Pac 10 game.
#38: Oregon and Oklahoma State will both be embarrassed again this season. The Oregon QB stated last week how embarrassing it was to lose to Boise State last season and how they would avoid any such embarrassment again this season. I'm sure that makes the target on his back just a little bit bigger for opening night.
An Oklahoma State LB then countered this week by talking about how embarrassing their Holiday Bowl loss was to Oregon, as the Ducks shredded the Oklahoma State D for over 300 rushing yards. I got news for both guys: get used to it. Opportunities for the Cowboys D to get shredded come at home against Georgia, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Colorado and on the road against A&M, Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. The Oregon Ducks will face several potential embarrassments this season as well: at Boise State, Purdue, Utah, and pick your Pac 10 game.
Monday, July 27, 2009
65 predictions, #39
Sunday's prediction:
#39: Virginia Tech beats Alabama in week one. Saban has never beaten Beamer (long track record of 0-1). There is too much uncertainty with Bama, who overachieved last year as it was, particularly with the offense. I think Saban will have the Crimson Tide rolling in 2010 until as long as he coaches there. But I think Va Tech will be less overrated this year than they usually are, i.e. they might almost be as good as "experts" say. The D and Special Teams are always good. Maybe this is the year they add the O and put it all together. They have dominated the ACC since joining the conference in 2004. Let's see if they can step it up on the national level.
Also of note, it is the 10th anniversary of Virginia Tech's lone appearance in the National Championship game: a loss to Bobby Bowden in the Sugar Bowl. I predict they get off to a good start with a victory over Nick Saban and Alabama.
#39: Virginia Tech beats Alabama in week one. Saban has never beaten Beamer (long track record of 0-1). There is too much uncertainty with Bama, who overachieved last year as it was, particularly with the offense. I think Saban will have the Crimson Tide rolling in 2010 until as long as he coaches there. But I think Va Tech will be less overrated this year than they usually are, i.e. they might almost be as good as "experts" say. The D and Special Teams are always good. Maybe this is the year they add the O and put it all together. They have dominated the ACC since joining the conference in 2004. Let's see if they can step it up on the national level.
Also of note, it is the 10th anniversary of Virginia Tech's lone appearance in the National Championship game: a loss to Bobby Bowden in the Sugar Bowl. I predict they get off to a good start with a victory over Nick Saban and Alabama.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
65 predictions, #40
Well, my thoughts are turned towards my family this week, as they all gather for a family reunion (without me). So I'm going to make a prediction involving the last remaining of a big-time football family: Bobby Bowden. Tough to imagine old Bobby is the only Bowden left coaching in College Football, considering 2 of his 3 sons have coached teams to undefeated records in their careers.
#40: Florida State will win 10 games this year. It might take the ACC Championship Game and a bowl game to get there, but this is the year it happens again. After 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000 (finished in the top 5 each year in that span: that is ridiculous! USC and Pete Carroll would have do it 7 more seasons, to give you an idea of how long and dominant that is), Bobby Bowden's teams have only accomplished this feat ONCE in the last 8 years. Buck up, Bobby, send some of those kids to class this year, and go collect your double-digit wins.
#40: Florida State will win 10 games this year. It might take the ACC Championship Game and a bowl game to get there, but this is the year it happens again. After 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000 (finished in the top 5 each year in that span: that is ridiculous! USC and Pete Carroll would have do it 7 more seasons, to give you an idea of how long and dominant that is), Bobby Bowden's teams have only accomplished this feat ONCE in the last 8 years. Buck up, Bobby, send some of those kids to class this year, and go collect your double-digit wins.
Friday, July 24, 2009
65 predictions, #41
#41: Week 2, USC at Ohio State, the suspense ends here: USC wins. Big.
The last non-conference home game Ohio State won that was of any consequence was 2002 against Washington State (Washington State was a top 10 team that season, I know, you really have to jog the memory to remember Wazu being any good at all). 7 years since their last REAL win at home out of conference.
Kudos to the Buckeyes for scheduling USC, but more kudos to the Trojans for putting the Big 10 in their place. I think Ohio State recognizes it needs to do more and has been more aggressive with their scheduling, but the flip side is: they just prove that the Big 10 is not what it used to be. Future OOC games on Ohio State's schedule (all home-and-home series unless otherwise noted): Miami, California, Cincinnati (2 home games for Ohio State), Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
The last non-conference home game Ohio State won that was of any consequence was 2002 against Washington State (Washington State was a top 10 team that season, I know, you really have to jog the memory to remember Wazu being any good at all). 7 years since their last REAL win at home out of conference.
Kudos to the Buckeyes for scheduling USC, but more kudos to the Trojans for putting the Big 10 in their place. I think Ohio State recognizes it needs to do more and has been more aggressive with their scheduling, but the flip side is: they just prove that the Big 10 is not what it used to be. Future OOC games on Ohio State's schedule (all home-and-home series unless otherwise noted): Miami, California, Cincinnati (2 home games for Ohio State), Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
65 predictions, #42
6 weeks until those first Thursday night games. Fall camps will be starting in about two weeks. Some conferences have had their media days, others are coming up straightaway. Can't you just feel the excitement and anticipation in the air?
#42: Florida and Boise State will be the only two teams in the country to sport a top 10 scoring offense and top 10 scoring defense. Last year, Boise State finished with the 3rd best scoring D in the country giving up just 12 points/game. The offense lagged a little behind, finishing at 12th in scoring O, scoring nearly 38. Not too shabby with a freshman starting at quarterback. Florida finished 4th in O and D, sporting an average margin of victory of over 30 points/game by scoring nearly 44 points/game while only giving up 13.
Penn State might also accomplish this feat, but I don't promote teams whose out of conference schedules consist of 0 bowl teams from last year, whose win totals add to 13, with a I-AA (FCS) team in there as well, oh, and all 4 of those games are at home for a total of 8 home games on the season. The Big 10 is obviously tougher than the WAC, but give me a break, it ain't the Big 12 South or SEC.
The trend continues for Florida. Boise State improves on offense. I can't wait to see them in action, 6 weeks from today, hosting Oregon on the blue turf, at 10:15 ET (8:15 MT) on ESPN.
#42: Florida and Boise State will be the only two teams in the country to sport a top 10 scoring offense and top 10 scoring defense. Last year, Boise State finished with the 3rd best scoring D in the country giving up just 12 points/game. The offense lagged a little behind, finishing at 12th in scoring O, scoring nearly 38. Not too shabby with a freshman starting at quarterback. Florida finished 4th in O and D, sporting an average margin of victory of over 30 points/game by scoring nearly 44 points/game while only giving up 13.
Penn State might also accomplish this feat, but I don't promote teams whose out of conference schedules consist of 0 bowl teams from last year, whose win totals add to 13, with a I-AA (FCS) team in there as well, oh, and all 4 of those games are at home for a total of 8 home games on the season. The Big 10 is obviously tougher than the WAC, but give me a break, it ain't the Big 12 South or SEC.
The trend continues for Florida. Boise State improves on offense. I can't wait to see them in action, 6 weeks from today, hosting Oregon on the blue turf, at 10:15 ET (8:15 MT) on ESPN.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
65 predictions, #43
#43: At least 10 of the 12 teams in the Big 12 will throw for over 3,000 yards. Last year 9 of them accomplished this feat (Iowa State, Colorado, and Baylor not throwing for that many).
At least 5 of the 12 will throw for over 4,000 yards. Kansas will join the teams that throw for over 4,000 yards. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa State jump from the 2,000 to the 4,000 club as well. Tom Herman's teams at Rice (he is Iowa State's new offensive coordinator, coming from the same position at Rice) threw for over 4,000 on a consistent basis. Mizzou might not make it into the club this year with everything that they lost, including QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Coffman, and their offensive coordinator. 4 Big 12 teams were in the 4,000 yard club last year (Tech, OU, Mizzou, and Texas).
At least 5 of the 12 will throw for over 4,000 yards. Kansas will join the teams that throw for over 4,000 yards. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa State jump from the 2,000 to the 4,000 club as well. Tom Herman's teams at Rice (he is Iowa State's new offensive coordinator, coming from the same position at Rice) threw for over 4,000 on a consistent basis. Mizzou might not make it into the club this year with everything that they lost, including QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Coffman, and their offensive coordinator. 4 Big 12 teams were in the 4,000 yard club last year (Tech, OU, Mizzou, and Texas).
65 predictions, #44
Tuesday's prediction:
#44: Of the 22 schools with new head coaches, at least 10 of them will go to bowl games this season. BCS schools Auburn, Boston College, Clemson, Oregon, Purdue, and Tennessee will all be among them. No bold predictions as to who the other 4 will be at this point in time...
#44: Of the 22 schools with new head coaches, at least 10 of them will go to bowl games this season. BCS schools Auburn, Boston College, Clemson, Oregon, Purdue, and Tennessee will all be among them. No bold predictions as to who the other 4 will be at this point in time...
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
A dose of reality
I have read about non-BCS teams and their chance at the national championship. For a number of reasons, BYU is one of teams in this discussion. Let me dispel one myth at the outset. BYU will not go undefeated, so they do not have a chance at a national championship this season. However, this is mostly a theoretical discussion about a non-BCS team's chance to play for the national championship. So BYU, because of its recent history (3 10+ win seasons in a row), long-standing tradition (National Championship in 1984, consistently ranked throughout the 70's, 80's, and 90's, and past 3 seasons), and 2009 schedule (neutral site against Oklahoma, plus Florida State, TCU, and Utah at home), is a good team to run the theoretical discussion about.
Can they play for the National Championship? Yes, but it does not depend entirely on them. An undefeated season, by itself, would not put them in the game, but it would put them in the discussion. At that point it depends on the records/resumes of the other teams in the discussion. An undefeated Texas or Florida would also have beaten Oklahoma and Florida State, respectively, but had a tougher schedule overall. However, one-loss teams, even Florida or Texas, may not have the punch to their argument. An undefeated BYU, with wins over 3-4 ranked opponents, combined with only 1-loss BCS teams, means that they COULD play for it all. Florida played 4 ranked teams last season, only 2 of which were still ranked at the end of the season. OU played 5, 4 of which made the final rankings. If it is like the 2007 season, where even the "best" BCS teams have 2 losses, it means that they WOULD play for it.
I've heard some people say if Utah couldn't do it last year with no undefeated BCS teams, no undefeated non-BCS team can do it. These are very different situations.
1) Utah finished the 2007 season unranked. BYU finished last season ranked in both polls.
2) Utah started the 2008 season unranked and off the radar. BYU has received a lot of national attention as a potential BCS buster, and will likely start off in the top 25.
3) Utah's win at Michigan (who also lost at home to Toledo and finished 3-9) pushed Utah into the top 25. If BYU beats Oklahoma, it would put them into the top 15, 8-10 spots higher than Utah was after week 1.
4) Utah also beat Oregon State who had just upset USC, but Oregon State was not ranked at the time, and was not ranked higher than 23rd during the season at any time. Florida State will be ranked, and possibly even in the top 15, when BYU plays them.
5) Utah busted into the top 15 by week 5. BYU, if undefeated, would be in the top 7 or 8 at the same time. I base this on the fact that last year, even without victories over OU and FSU, BYU was ranked 7th and 8th in the polls by week 5.
6) Utah played only 2 ranked teams (both of them conference opponents, though Michigan was ranked in one preseason poll last season). BYU will play at least 3, possibly 4 (that will depend on Utah).
7) Brian Johnson, Utah's QB last year, was never even mentioned in the Heisman discussion. Max Hall received some attention already last year, and has been mentioned by a few as a potential darkhorse (if and only if BYU beats OU and Florida State...) this year. The more pub a team (or a player on a team) gets, the better the team's chances for moving up in the rankings. BYU has also made some national noise in their recruiting. It does not help their 2009 team at all, but again, any publicity is good publicity.
If there ever was a non-BCS team to play for the National Championship, it would need a schedule like BYU's from this year. It would need a string of good seasons like BYU has had the past 3 years. It would need the preseason attention that BYU has been getting. BYU is setting the model for what it would take for an undefeated non-BCS school to get to the National Championship game in the current BCS format. If nothing else, an 11-1 school that follows this same model, would likely still play in a BCS game.
Can they play for the National Championship? Yes, but it does not depend entirely on them. An undefeated season, by itself, would not put them in the game, but it would put them in the discussion. At that point it depends on the records/resumes of the other teams in the discussion. An undefeated Texas or Florida would also have beaten Oklahoma and Florida State, respectively, but had a tougher schedule overall. However, one-loss teams, even Florida or Texas, may not have the punch to their argument. An undefeated BYU, with wins over 3-4 ranked opponents, combined with only 1-loss BCS teams, means that they COULD play for it all. Florida played 4 ranked teams last season, only 2 of which were still ranked at the end of the season. OU played 5, 4 of which made the final rankings. If it is like the 2007 season, where even the "best" BCS teams have 2 losses, it means that they WOULD play for it.
I've heard some people say if Utah couldn't do it last year with no undefeated BCS teams, no undefeated non-BCS team can do it. These are very different situations.
1) Utah finished the 2007 season unranked. BYU finished last season ranked in both polls.
2) Utah started the 2008 season unranked and off the radar. BYU has received a lot of national attention as a potential BCS buster, and will likely start off in the top 25.
3) Utah's win at Michigan (who also lost at home to Toledo and finished 3-9) pushed Utah into the top 25. If BYU beats Oklahoma, it would put them into the top 15, 8-10 spots higher than Utah was after week 1.
4) Utah also beat Oregon State who had just upset USC, but Oregon State was not ranked at the time, and was not ranked higher than 23rd during the season at any time. Florida State will be ranked, and possibly even in the top 15, when BYU plays them.
5) Utah busted into the top 15 by week 5. BYU, if undefeated, would be in the top 7 or 8 at the same time. I base this on the fact that last year, even without victories over OU and FSU, BYU was ranked 7th and 8th in the polls by week 5.
6) Utah played only 2 ranked teams (both of them conference opponents, though Michigan was ranked in one preseason poll last season). BYU will play at least 3, possibly 4 (that will depend on Utah).
7) Brian Johnson, Utah's QB last year, was never even mentioned in the Heisman discussion. Max Hall received some attention already last year, and has been mentioned by a few as a potential darkhorse (if and only if BYU beats OU and Florida State...) this year. The more pub a team (or a player on a team) gets, the better the team's chances for moving up in the rankings. BYU has also made some national noise in their recruiting. It does not help their 2009 team at all, but again, any publicity is good publicity.
If there ever was a non-BCS team to play for the National Championship, it would need a schedule like BYU's from this year. It would need a string of good seasons like BYU has had the past 3 years. It would need the preseason attention that BYU has been getting. BYU is setting the model for what it would take for an undefeated non-BCS school to get to the National Championship game in the current BCS format. If nothing else, an 11-1 school that follows this same model, would likely still play in a BCS game.
Monday, July 20, 2009
65 predictions, #45
#45: The Big 12 North will double its win total against the South from last season. Last year they went 3-15 (the worst year ever by the North since the Big 12 became the Big 12). The previous year they actually had a winning record at 10-8. Last year only A&M and Baylor lost games to the North, A&M having a losing record. This year, expect at least a 6-12 record across the divisions. I'm not sure Rock Chalk will be too much help to the North this time around (they were 3-0 in 2007 but 0-3 last season), because they play OU, at Texas, and at Tech, but at least they'll go 4-0 out of conference (I-AA, two non-BCS schools, and Duke: 3 of those games at home). Sorry Jayhawk fans: you might join Iowa State as the only winless-against-the-South North teams. That is not good company to be in. Hey, look at the bright side, next year you get OK State, at Baylor, and A&M! That looks more like a recipe for 3-0!
65 predictions recap
Well, in case you missed my first 20 predictions, here is a summary of them: you can decide by this table of contents which posts you want to read. I'm not sure I'll do this again, so this isn't an excuse to get lazy: just a way for late-comers to get caught up.
65: Utah doesn't play in a BCS game this season.
64: No 3-way tie in the Big 12 South again: winner of OU-Texas wins the South.
63: Boise State causes another headache for the BCS with a 12-1 top 10 or 13-0 top 5 finish.
62: USC wins the Pac 10 again easily.
61: Navy wins at least 8 games and goes bowling for the 7th straight season.
60: Notre Dame loses at least 2 games, and possibly up to 4.
59: Commander-in-chief trophy remains at the Naval Academy this year.
58: The Sun Belt sends 2 teams to bowl games again.
57: The ACC will not have 10 bowl eligible teams again this year.
56: The MWC, WAC, Big East, and ACC will not be playing for the National Championship this season (and probably not next year either).
55: Texas QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman (if he doesn't get hurt).
54: University of Washington will have the biggest turnaround for a BCS program.
53: Texas Tech will take the biggest step in the wrong direction for a BCS program, barely edging out Cincinnati.
52: My choices for potential preseason top 10 teams to flop are Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and California. That is assuming Notre Dame doesn't start in the top 10: if so, move them to the top of the list.
51: SMU will have the biggest turnaround for a non-BCS program.
50: Utah and Ball State each go at least 4 wins in the wrong direction, leading all non-BCS teams in steps backwards.
49: There will be at least 2 upsets by SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico (MWC teams with new coaches) over TCU, BYU, Air Force, and Utah.
48: BYU TEs Dennis Pitta and Andrew George will be the best statistical TE tandem in the country.
47: The SEC will have 3-4 top 10 teams and 5-6 top 25 teams on a consistent basis this season after last year's sabbatical from the top of college football (excluding Florida).
46: The MWC will have at least 5 bowl eligible teams.
65: Utah doesn't play in a BCS game this season.
64: No 3-way tie in the Big 12 South again: winner of OU-Texas wins the South.
63: Boise State causes another headache for the BCS with a 12-1 top 10 or 13-0 top 5 finish.
62: USC wins the Pac 10 again easily.
61: Navy wins at least 8 games and goes bowling for the 7th straight season.
60: Notre Dame loses at least 2 games, and possibly up to 4.
59: Commander-in-chief trophy remains at the Naval Academy this year.
58: The Sun Belt sends 2 teams to bowl games again.
57: The ACC will not have 10 bowl eligible teams again this year.
56: The MWC, WAC, Big East, and ACC will not be playing for the National Championship this season (and probably not next year either).
55: Texas QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman (if he doesn't get hurt).
54: University of Washington will have the biggest turnaround for a BCS program.
53: Texas Tech will take the biggest step in the wrong direction for a BCS program, barely edging out Cincinnati.
52: My choices for potential preseason top 10 teams to flop are Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and California. That is assuming Notre Dame doesn't start in the top 10: if so, move them to the top of the list.
51: SMU will have the biggest turnaround for a non-BCS program.
50: Utah and Ball State each go at least 4 wins in the wrong direction, leading all non-BCS teams in steps backwards.
49: There will be at least 2 upsets by SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico (MWC teams with new coaches) over TCU, BYU, Air Force, and Utah.
48: BYU TEs Dennis Pitta and Andrew George will be the best statistical TE tandem in the country.
47: The SEC will have 3-4 top 10 teams and 5-6 top 25 teams on a consistent basis this season after last year's sabbatical from the top of college football (excluding Florida).
46: The MWC will have at least 5 bowl eligible teams.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
65 predictions, #46
#46: The Mountain West will have at least 5 bowl eligible teams. TCU, BYU, Air Force, and Utah will all go bowling, along with at least one other team getting eligible. Here's a quick rundown of the others:
Colorado State: I like the defense. They lost a lot on offense and have some question marks. I'm not as concerned with the QB position as I read a lot of other "experts" are. One, they are a running team. Two, Fairchild is a QB coach, he'll coach them up. Three, Fairchild spent several years in the NFL: if he is unhappy with his QB play in spring practice, it might be because his expectations are a bit high for a Mountain West Conference quarterback. He is only in his second year as a head coach, so I'd like to see some consistency before I go naming them the 5th bowl eligible team. They are my favorite, but I did pick right on them last year (though many of you ridiculed the pick), what are the odds I do it twice and get it right both times?
UNLV: They have been building a little momentum the past few seasons. They just lack the fan support and excitement, plus their uniforms are ugly. They have been able to pull off some upsets against BCS foes, but they'll probably need to beat Oregon State or Hawaii (both at home) and/or win at Nevada to have a reasonable shot at getting to 6 wins, especially considering their pretty poor conference play the past few seasons.
New Mexico: I think they have the pieces in place, but coming off a 4-8 season where your coach resigns, stating that he just can't get New Mexico over the hump to compete in this league, could shake the confidence of these guys. Remember, last year they were just a broken arm by their now NFL CB away from beating Utah. They had injuries to key personnel at critical junctures all throughout last season that cost them a couple of close games. The new coach, Mike Locksley, while very experienced in coaching, is in his first year as THE head coach, which isn't the same as being an assistant (just ask Gary Crowton). Pieces are there: depth probably still isn't. Locksley is supposedly a good recruiter, but no one can work that fast.
Wyoming: Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses in the conference, it only looks like they give up a lot of points because they either had bad field position or the other teams' defenses and special teams were scoring points. They definitely lacked discipline and creativity on offense and special teams last year. Coach Christensen definitely exhibited both attributes with his offense at Mizzou, so that should improve. He is going to a no-huddle spread offense, which will definitely speed up the pace (though if they don't get first downs, it just means the D spends even MORE time on the field). The main concern here is that I don't see when they will get on a roll: their easier games are too spread out.
San Diego State: The speed is there, the size and confidence is not. I felt this a lot last year watching them play: the players didn't believe in the team, it was just a bunch of individuals doing their best. It led to a lot of people playing out of position. This could turn around with Hoke at the helm and Rocky Long running the defense. I look for them to be improved in a lot of ways, but probably not enough to get to a bowl game: though with their non-conference schedule, I wouldn't count them out as they'll probably win 3 non-conference games and 3-5 in conference isn't that unreasonable with their speed.
Colorado State: I like the defense. They lost a lot on offense and have some question marks. I'm not as concerned with the QB position as I read a lot of other "experts" are. One, they are a running team. Two, Fairchild is a QB coach, he'll coach them up. Three, Fairchild spent several years in the NFL: if he is unhappy with his QB play in spring practice, it might be because his expectations are a bit high for a Mountain West Conference quarterback. He is only in his second year as a head coach, so I'd like to see some consistency before I go naming them the 5th bowl eligible team. They are my favorite, but I did pick right on them last year (though many of you ridiculed the pick), what are the odds I do it twice and get it right both times?
UNLV: They have been building a little momentum the past few seasons. They just lack the fan support and excitement, plus their uniforms are ugly. They have been able to pull off some upsets against BCS foes, but they'll probably need to beat Oregon State or Hawaii (both at home) and/or win at Nevada to have a reasonable shot at getting to 6 wins, especially considering their pretty poor conference play the past few seasons.
New Mexico: I think they have the pieces in place, but coming off a 4-8 season where your coach resigns, stating that he just can't get New Mexico over the hump to compete in this league, could shake the confidence of these guys. Remember, last year they were just a broken arm by their now NFL CB away from beating Utah. They had injuries to key personnel at critical junctures all throughout last season that cost them a couple of close games. The new coach, Mike Locksley, while very experienced in coaching, is in his first year as THE head coach, which isn't the same as being an assistant (just ask Gary Crowton). Pieces are there: depth probably still isn't. Locksley is supposedly a good recruiter, but no one can work that fast.
Wyoming: Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses in the conference, it only looks like they give up a lot of points because they either had bad field position or the other teams' defenses and special teams were scoring points. They definitely lacked discipline and creativity on offense and special teams last year. Coach Christensen definitely exhibited both attributes with his offense at Mizzou, so that should improve. He is going to a no-huddle spread offense, which will definitely speed up the pace (though if they don't get first downs, it just means the D spends even MORE time on the field). The main concern here is that I don't see when they will get on a roll: their easier games are too spread out.
San Diego State: The speed is there, the size and confidence is not. I felt this a lot last year watching them play: the players didn't believe in the team, it was just a bunch of individuals doing their best. It led to a lot of people playing out of position. This could turn around with Hoke at the helm and Rocky Long running the defense. I look for them to be improved in a lot of ways, but probably not enough to get to a bowl game: though with their non-conference schedule, I wouldn't count them out as they'll probably win 3 non-conference games and 3-5 in conference isn't that unreasonable with their speed.
65 predictions, #47
#47: The SEC will return to its old ways in the rankings this season. 3-4 teams will be ranked in the top 10 each week. 5-6 teams will be ranked in the top 25.
Last season, they spent most of the season with 2-3 teams in the top 10, and about 4 teams total ranked. LSU and Ole Miss will certainly spend some time in the rankings this year. South Carolina and Tennessee might even see a few weeks in the top 25 (Tennessee might be a stretch, especially since they play UCLA, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia the first half of the season: tough to get on an early roll like that). Even Auburn might spend some time in the rankings (thanks to 8 home games and a pretty breezy non-conference schedule). There is only 1 Florida obviously, but the SEC will show some depth again this season.
Last season, they spent most of the season with 2-3 teams in the top 10, and about 4 teams total ranked. LSU and Ole Miss will certainly spend some time in the rankings this year. South Carolina and Tennessee might even see a few weeks in the top 25 (Tennessee might be a stretch, especially since they play UCLA, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia the first half of the season: tough to get on an early roll like that). Even Auburn might spend some time in the rankings (thanks to 8 home games and a pretty breezy non-conference schedule). There is only 1 Florida obviously, but the SEC will show some depth again this season.
Friday, July 17, 2009
65 predictions, #48
#48: BYU tight ends Dennis Pitta and Andrew George will lead all TE tandems in the nation in every major offensive category. And it probably won't even be that close. Dennis Pitta will be the focal point up and down the field, but Andrew "the touchdown maker" George is money in the red zone. George is probably the better pro prospect because of his size/blocking ability, but Pitta made strides last season to put on weight and improve his blocking. I hope George worked on his route-running this off-season. I'm sure Pitta and his brother-in-law (and QB) Max Hall are out throwing the rock in preparation for their senior seasons. It should be an exciting one for Cougar fans: a lot of senior leadership on both sides of the ball and two potential major statement games against Oklahoma and Florida State. Let's just hope the statement isn't about how bad BYU is!
Ranking Non-BCS Conferences
Someone asked me how I would rate the non-BCS conferences on quality.
1) Mountain West - 3 top 25-calibre teams (most years), with another solid program in Air Force and only 1 really bad team (San Diego State).
2) Conference USA - has good balance, maybe not the upper echelon teams like the MWC but only 1 or 2 real stinkos. Every team except SMU has been to a bowl game in the last 6 years.
3) WAC - take Boise State out and this league looks more like the Sun Belt. Fresno State and Hawaii are both good programs but couldn't carry the league without Boise State. The bottom 3 teams are capable of losing 10 games every season (Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State).
4) MAC - it is a pretty balanced league most years, but the balance is that there are not really any quality teams. Ball State, last year's flagship program won 12 games, but couldn't win the conference, and then got demolished by Tulsa in their bowl game. They played two decent teams and lost BIG both times. What does that say about the rest of the league?
5) Sun Belt - I think Troy is just straight-up a solid football program. Another conference will eventually take them out of their state of purgatory. If you ask me, they'd do better in the SEC than Mississippi State or Vanderbilt do most years. Several of the other programs are much improved but they were so bad to begin with, that it isn't saying much.
1) Mountain West - 3 top 25-calibre teams (most years), with another solid program in Air Force and only 1 really bad team (San Diego State).
2) Conference USA - has good balance, maybe not the upper echelon teams like the MWC but only 1 or 2 real stinkos. Every team except SMU has been to a bowl game in the last 6 years.
3) WAC - take Boise State out and this league looks more like the Sun Belt. Fresno State and Hawaii are both good programs but couldn't carry the league without Boise State. The bottom 3 teams are capable of losing 10 games every season (Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State).
4) MAC - it is a pretty balanced league most years, but the balance is that there are not really any quality teams. Ball State, last year's flagship program won 12 games, but couldn't win the conference, and then got demolished by Tulsa in their bowl game. They played two decent teams and lost BIG both times. What does that say about the rest of the league?
5) Sun Belt - I think Troy is just straight-up a solid football program. Another conference will eventually take them out of their state of purgatory. If you ask me, they'd do better in the SEC than Mississippi State or Vanderbilt do most years. Several of the other programs are much improved but they were so bad to begin with, that it isn't saying much.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
65 predictions, #49
7 weeks until football, y'all.
#49: SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming will combine for at least two upsets of the top 4 in the MWC. This has typically been a top heavy conference, with TCU, BYU, Utah, and Air Force pretty well winning all of their games against the bottom half of the conference. This year, with new coaches at these 3 schools, they will pull off at least two shockers against the Big 4.
#49: SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming will combine for at least two upsets of the top 4 in the MWC. This has typically been a top heavy conference, with TCU, BYU, Utah, and Air Force pretty well winning all of their games against the bottom half of the conference. This year, with new coaches at these 3 schools, they will pull off at least two shockers against the Big 4.
65 predictions, #50
Sorry, this is yesterday's post:
Two teams lead the class for non-BCS school to take the biggest step in the wrong direction from last year: Ball State and Utah. Ball State's coach jumped ship for San Diego State, it must have been about the weather, the conference, and the $$$. Why else would you leave a 12-2 team for a team that hasn't been bowling since, what, Marshall Faulk played there? Ball State does play in a weaker division of a weak conference. They stacked the non-conference with a couple of patsies (can a MAC team really say that?). Utah lost a lot of key personnel and coaches. They play two or three non-conference games that are tougher than any game on Ball State's schedule, not to mention there are two or three MWC opponents that will be tougher than anything else Ball State will see. Of course, Utah is also clearly the better team...
#50: After 12 regular season wins last year, both Ball State and the University of Utah manage only 8 wins this season to tie for the worst turnaround among non-BCS schools.
Two teams lead the class for non-BCS school to take the biggest step in the wrong direction from last year: Ball State and Utah. Ball State's coach jumped ship for San Diego State, it must have been about the weather, the conference, and the $$$. Why else would you leave a 12-2 team for a team that hasn't been bowling since, what, Marshall Faulk played there? Ball State does play in a weaker division of a weak conference. They stacked the non-conference with a couple of patsies (can a MAC team really say that?). Utah lost a lot of key personnel and coaches. They play two or three non-conference games that are tougher than any game on Ball State's schedule, not to mention there are two or three MWC opponents that will be tougher than anything else Ball State will see. Of course, Utah is also clearly the better team...
#50: After 12 regular season wins last year, both Ball State and the University of Utah manage only 8 wins this season to tie for the worst turnaround among non-BCS schools.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
65 predictions, #51
The biggest non-BCS turnaround usually happens in the Sun Belt, where the smallest amount of improvement can lead to the most victories because of the weakness of that conference. However, the only really strong candidate (based on lack of wins last season: 1) is the Mean Green of North Texas. However, looking at how the schedule stacks up, after 7 games at best they will be 2-5, and more likely 1-6 or 0-7. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence that the Sun Belt will continue their tradition of having the non-BCS team with the biggest turnaround. Western Kentucky is another possibility: this is their first official year in I-A, and they are joining the Sun Belt. However, they were 0-5 against the Sun Belt last season, though most of those were fairly close games.
The next thought usually goes to the MAC, where the West Division's top two teams had coaches jump ship for better conferences. However, Toledo and Eastern Michigan, the two bottom feeders each had 3 wins apiece last year, so to get the biggest turnaround they'll need to get to 7 or 8 this year. With their non-conference schedule, that won't happen.Realistically we are left with two possibilities: SDSU (2-10) and SMU (1-11).
#51: SMU will have the biggest turnaround for a non-BCS school this season. This is Coach Jones' second year in the program and he can make a bit of a splash, though don't expect too much: 5 wins is reachable, 6 isn't that unlikely. The top of his division is tough, but he can make up ground on the fledgling programs not named Tulsa, Rice, and Houston. They have winnable conference road games at UAB and Marshall. I think you will see a 4 or 5 game turnaround from the Mustangs.
Monday, July 13, 2009
65 predictions, #52
Every season we all wait with eager anticipation for the preseason top 25 polls to come out. Inevitably, the final poll looks extremely different than the preseason one. Last year's preseason AP poll had the following gaffes in the top 10 alone: Georgia as #1, finished 13th; Mizzou as #6, finished 19th; LSU as #7, finished 3rd in the "others receiving votes" category (we'll call it 28th); West Virginia as #8, finished 23rd; Clemson as #9, finished completely out of the rankings (not even receiving a single vote); and Auburn was #10, did not even get bowl eligible. So the AP did OK on 2-5 (tough to miss on Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC), but completely missed #1 and 6-10. While we don't have the actual poll to make fun of just yet, I am going to predict which teams that might start as the media's darlings will end up underachieving (or prove to have been overrated).
#52: There are several schools that might qualify for biggest misses of the year. We'll start in the SEC, since 3 of our 5 examples from last year are from there. Ole Miss is not nearly as good as you read. I know I predicted them as the team to watch out for in the SEC West, but only because I think the SEC West will be down a bit this season. They will most likely start in the top 10, and finish in the 20's.
Oklahoma State does get 8 home games this season. They snuck up on a few people last year. The problem is you don't get to sneak up on people two years in a row. The other problem is that a home game doesn't guarantee a win, particularly if you're opponent is better than you. Georgia, Missouri, and Texas all have pretty good chances to beat them. The problem with playing so many games at home: it makes it harder to win on the road! The Cowboys don't go on the road until week 6, the second weekend in October! I would not be surprised in the least if Okie State loses to A&M there. At Baylor will be no walk in the park and they finish the year at Oklahoma. I'm predicting at least 3 losses, possibly as many as 5.Moving to the Pac 10: Oregon and California both are potential preseason top 10 teams that could flop. Oregon has faded down the stretch every year for the last umpteen years. It's science. California has never handled the spotlight very well. They play each other, in addition to USC, so one of these teams already has two losses before the season even begins. Oregon plays at Boise State before hosting Purdue and Utah. They also play at UCLA and at Arizona, both losable games. California plays Maryland and at Minnesota. They also travel to Oregon and Arizona State during the season. Oregon is probably the more likely of the two to completely flop, but with the Ducks hosting Cal, both teams are likely going to have single-digit wins.
I want to add Ohio State here as well, but their relatively light schedule puts them at worst 9-3. With that record and their embarrassing schedule (minus USC), they SHOULD be out of the top 25, but I'm sure they'd be fluttering around 10-15 in the final polls even if they did lose both their tough games plus another conference game.
65 predictions, #53
Sunday's prediction.
Every year we see teams go back to mediocrity after a breakout year, top 10 finish, etc. There are two possible BCS conference candidates for biggest turnaround in the wrong direction: Texas Tech and Cincinnati.
#53: When there is a tossup like this, you have to figure the margin for error is smaller in the Big 12 than the Big East, so Texas Tech will likely take the crown here. Texas Tech went 11-1 last regular season, the sole loss being at Oklahoma. They then followed up their stellar regular season with an embarrassing loss to Ole Miss. They lost key personnel. Their coach isn't pleased with his contract situation. The schedule, while not that much more difficult than last year's, isn't as kind as it was for the breakout season last year. They play at Texas, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, they get Oklahoma and Kansas at home, and even playing Baylor at a neutral site might be a difficult way to end the season. Texas A&M should also be improved this year (how many years in a row have I thought this same thing???) and hungry after some of the things Coach Leach said about the Aggies this off-season in regards to the NFL draft. They always have a cake-walk in the non-conference (they usually have 2 I-AA teams, only 1 this year), but look for Houston and New Mexico to put up a little bit of a fight before falling, Houston being the more likely to pull off the upset. I think you are looking at a 7-win season for the Red Raiders. I am sure the Bearcats will give Tech all they can handle, as they battle for the biggest slide among BCS conference teams, but I give the edge to Tech, based on the strength of the Big 12.
Every year we see teams go back to mediocrity after a breakout year, top 10 finish, etc. There are two possible BCS conference candidates for biggest turnaround in the wrong direction: Texas Tech and Cincinnati.
#53: When there is a tossup like this, you have to figure the margin for error is smaller in the Big 12 than the Big East, so Texas Tech will likely take the crown here. Texas Tech went 11-1 last regular season, the sole loss being at Oklahoma. They then followed up their stellar regular season with an embarrassing loss to Ole Miss. They lost key personnel. Their coach isn't pleased with his contract situation. The schedule, while not that much more difficult than last year's, isn't as kind as it was for the breakout season last year. They play at Texas, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, they get Oklahoma and Kansas at home, and even playing Baylor at a neutral site might be a difficult way to end the season. Texas A&M should also be improved this year (how many years in a row have I thought this same thing???) and hungry after some of the things Coach Leach said about the Aggies this off-season in regards to the NFL draft. They always have a cake-walk in the non-conference (they usually have 2 I-AA teams, only 1 this year), but look for Houston and New Mexico to put up a little bit of a fight before falling, Houston being the more likely to pull off the upset. I think you are looking at a 7-win season for the Red Raiders. I am sure the Bearcats will give Tech all they can handle, as they battle for the biggest slide among BCS conference teams, but I give the edge to Tech, based on the strength of the Big 12.
65 predictions, #54
Saturday's prediction
Every season there is some team that sparks a magical turnaround from the previous season. We see a team that went 3-9 turn it around and go 9-3 and go to a good bowl game. This is common among BCS conferences as well as non-BCS conferences. I will pick my biggest BCS turnaround today.
#54: The University of Washington will have the biggest BCS turnaround, winning at least 5 more games this season than last season's 0-12 trainwreck. 1) the new head coach, Steve Sarkisian, will make a HUGE difference. He is a winner, he won as a player at BYU (14-1, top 5 finish) and he won while coaching as an assistant at USC. He knows how to attack Pac 10 defenses as he did it very successfully with the Trojans. 2) Good old Ty, who unfortunately is not a very good coach, is a great recruiter. There is some size, there is some speed, and there is some talent on the roster. With a healthy Jake Locker (who should be more accurate this year), they will get out of the Pac 10 cellar this season. In 2010, look for UW to get back to a bowl game. Mush Huskies.
Alternate is the University of Michigan, coming off a 3-9 season: but they'd have to get to 8 wins this year to match Washington's turnaround, and they still have issues at quarterback. Coach RR is building for the future: i.e. he isn't adapting his offense to his personnel, he's trying to adapt his personnel to his offense. That's a good long-term strategy, but not so good in the short run. That's why the Michigan turnaround will be slower.
Every season there is some team that sparks a magical turnaround from the previous season. We see a team that went 3-9 turn it around and go 9-3 and go to a good bowl game. This is common among BCS conferences as well as non-BCS conferences. I will pick my biggest BCS turnaround today.
#54: The University of Washington will have the biggest BCS turnaround, winning at least 5 more games this season than last season's 0-12 trainwreck. 1) the new head coach, Steve Sarkisian, will make a HUGE difference. He is a winner, he won as a player at BYU (14-1, top 5 finish) and he won while coaching as an assistant at USC. He knows how to attack Pac 10 defenses as he did it very successfully with the Trojans. 2) Good old Ty, who unfortunately is not a very good coach, is a great recruiter. There is some size, there is some speed, and there is some talent on the roster. With a healthy Jake Locker (who should be more accurate this year), they will get out of the Pac 10 cellar this season. In 2010, look for UW to get back to a bowl game. Mush Huskies.
Alternate is the University of Michigan, coming off a 3-9 season: but they'd have to get to 8 wins this year to match Washington's turnaround, and they still have issues at quarterback. Coach RR is building for the future: i.e. he isn't adapting his offense to his personnel, he's trying to adapt his personnel to his offense. That's a good long-term strategy, but not so good in the short run. That's why the Michigan turnaround will be slower.
Friday, July 10, 2009
65 predictions, #55
Well, less than 8 weeks until the first game kicks off. Then we get 4 straight months of football. After that, two major trophies go out. Yesterday I gave you a prediction about one of the trophies: the BCS National Championship Trophy. Or at least I told you who wasn't going to hoist it. Today I will tell you who will be lifting up the coveted Heisman Trophy in December.
#55: Barring an injury, Texas Longhorn QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman Trophy this season. He will throw for over 4,000 yards and his team will compete for the Big 12 title and National Championship. Unlike Bradford and Tebow, you remove Colt McCoy from Texas and they are no longer a top 5 team. He has a pretty light schedule to pile up stats, but it's also tough enough that he will be challenged on the big stage and have a chance to showcase his ability. As my OU fan buddy said about him: Colt McCoy exemplifies Texas. He is a class act. He works hard. He improves each day. If he is any better than he was last season, there is no one that can stand between him and the Heisman Trophy.
#55: Barring an injury, Texas Longhorn QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman Trophy this season. He will throw for over 4,000 yards and his team will compete for the Big 12 title and National Championship. Unlike Bradford and Tebow, you remove Colt McCoy from Texas and they are no longer a top 5 team. He has a pretty light schedule to pile up stats, but it's also tough enough that he will be challenged on the big stage and have a chance to showcase his ability. As my OU fan buddy said about him: Colt McCoy exemplifies Texas. He is a class act. He works hard. He improves each day. If he is any better than he was last season, there is no one that can stand between him and the Heisman Trophy.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
65 Predictions, #56
Well it's the day after the MWC and WAC gave in and signed the BCS agreement. They are back to being part of the problem for at least the next 4 years. So I am going to make a BCS prediction today.
#56: the MWC and WAC will not have a representative in the championship game this season. Neither will the Big East or ACC. I know it's not a bold prediction, but I can say with certainty that it's accurate! What I am really saying is: for the foreseeable future (4 years), the BCS is going to choose schools from the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or USC to play for the National Championship. It is not about being the best team over the course of a season, it is about being one of the best teams over the season AND being one of the best programs over the previous two or three seasons. In college football, you just can't go from 0-12 to 12-0 and National Champion, unfortunate though it may be. Since TCU won a national championship in the 1940's, only 24 different teams have won national championships, only one of them a non-BCS school (BYU in 1984), so it's been a closed club LONG before the BCS came into existence. If Utah went 12-0 again this year, they could get a crack at it: problem is they won't. For a non-BCS school to have a shot, they need to have back-to-back undefeated seasons, the 1st one ending with a BCS bowl victory, and they need to return 16+ starters, including a QB and a defensive captain. What are the odds of that? Well, according to my prediction for this season: ZERO.
Honestly, if Utah did what it did in 2008 back in 1998, they would have played a 5th place Pac 10 nobody in the whocares.com bowl with a tiny payout. They may have gotten the shaft for the NC last year, but it's more money and more exposure than it would have been even 5 years ago. There is progress, just not equality.
Honestly, if Utah did what it did in 2008 back in 1998, they would have played a 5th place Pac 10 nobody in the whocares.com bowl with a tiny payout. They may have gotten the shaft for the NC last year, but it's more money and more exposure than it would have been even 5 years ago. There is progress, just not equality.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
65 Predictions, #57
#57: The ACC will not have 10 bowl-eligible teams again this season. Last season the ACC set a record with their 10 bowl games. Since the expansion to 12 teams in 2004, they have had 8 bowl-eligible teams every season. There were two main reasons behind the jump to 10 last year: non-conference record (which you could argue is because they are a superior conference or that they scheduled mostly patsies outside of the conference), and the fact that there were no dominant teams at the top (you could argue that is parity because the teams at the bottom got better or that it is parity because the teams at the top got worse).
You want to talk schedules, ACC teams only play one more game against BCS teams (not counting Notre Dame) out of conference than they do against I-AA teams, 15-14. Last year, they played BCS teams 18 times and I-AA teams 15. Using that as the only criteria (I know it isn't very robust but whatever) I would say the schedule has eased slightly this year.
I predict they won't get 10 teams bowling this year because of the resurgence of some dominant teams at the top, leaving fewer wins left for the bottom. Last year, BC, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech combined for 12 losses in conference by the top 4 in the league (in 2007 the top 4 combined for 8 ACC losses, 9 in 2006, and 9 in 2005). This year, the ACC losses by the top 4 will go back to 9, leaving 3 less wins available for those trying to get bowl eligible. Maybe their slightly weaker non-conference schedule this year will make up for those 3 wins, but I'm predicting only 8 or 9 bowl-eligible ACC teams.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
65 Predictions, #59 & 58
Well, it's my birthday today, and so I am going to give you a gift: you get 2 predictions today! Mostly because I didn't get around to yesterday's prediction yesterday.
#59: The Commander-In-Chief Trophy will remain in Annapolis this year. In case you do not know what this is, I will explain: it is the trophy given to the winner of the triangular rivalry of Army, Air Force, and Navy. Navy and Air Force play the first weekend in October, Air Force and Army play the first weekend in November, and Army and Navy play the first weekend in December. For the past several years, Navy has taken home the trophy. I predict they do the same this year. In the event of a 3-way tie, the "title" is shared, but the trophy remains with last year's winner. Thus I predict Navy will retain the trophy due to a shared or outright title.
#58: The Sun Belt will send two teams bowling again this season. Last year for the first time in the conference's history, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams AND 2 of them went to bowl games. The streak of multiple bowl bids continues this year. After this season they will ink a contract for the second bowl bid, instead of sending a second team in "at-large" fashion (b/c other conferences don't have enough qualifiers to send to their contracted games.) I predict: at least Troy, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State will qualify for bowl games, and at least two of them will go. Troy, as conference champion, will get the lone guaranteed berth.
#59: The Commander-In-Chief Trophy will remain in Annapolis this year. In case you do not know what this is, I will explain: it is the trophy given to the winner of the triangular rivalry of Army, Air Force, and Navy. Navy and Air Force play the first weekend in October, Air Force and Army play the first weekend in November, and Army and Navy play the first weekend in December. For the past several years, Navy has taken home the trophy. I predict they do the same this year. In the event of a 3-way tie, the "title" is shared, but the trophy remains with last year's winner. Thus I predict Navy will retain the trophy due to a shared or outright title.
#58: The Sun Belt will send two teams bowling again this season. Last year for the first time in the conference's history, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams AND 2 of them went to bowl games. The streak of multiple bowl bids continues this year. After this season they will ink a contract for the second bowl bid, instead of sending a second team in "at-large" fashion (b/c other conferences don't have enough qualifiers to send to their contracted games.) I predict: at least Troy, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State will qualify for bowl games, and at least two of them will go. Troy, as conference champion, will get the lone guaranteed berth.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
65 Predictions, #60
Prediction #60: Sticking with the Independents' Day theme, I predict that Notre Dame will lose at least 2 games and will not go to a BCS game. Don't buy into the hype: they will lose to USC and will lose at least one of several other losable games. Looking at the schedule, a Notre Dame team from the '90's goes 11-1 or 10-2, but Notre Dame is a much different team 3 coaches later. At Michigan, Michigan State, at Purdue, Boston College, at Pitt, and at Stanford could all be losses and there is no way they will win ALL of those games. More than likely, 9-3 and a top 20 finish are in the Irish's future.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
65 Predictions, #61
9 weeks until the first Saturday of College Football season, 61 days until the first Thursday night games. In honor of Independence Day, I'm going to make a prediction about one of the Independent teams, which also happens to be one of the Armed Service Academies. We all appreciate the sacrifice made by you and your families to keep us safe and to champion the cause of freedom throughout the world. God bless you and your loved ones, and keep you from harm's way, but if not, give you the courage to meet our enemies and come out victorious.
Prediction #61: Navy will at least 8 games this season. They have 6 games in the bag, just looking at the schedule, and 5 toss-ups (they play 13 games this year, with one at Hawaii the NCAA allows a 13th game). I predict they will pull at least 2 of those toss-ups and go to a bowl game for the 7th consecutive year. Go Middies!
Prediction #61: Navy will at least 8 games this season. They have 6 games in the bag, just looking at the schedule, and 5 toss-ups (they play 13 games this year, with one at Hawaii the NCAA allows a 13th game). I predict they will pull at least 2 of those toss-ups and go to a bowl game for the 7th consecutive year. Go Middies!
65 Predictions, #62
USC will win the Pac 10 (again), and it won't be close. The Pac 10, as a whole, will be better across the board (maybe not the Oregon teams), but no one comes close to casting a shadow on the Southern California sunshine. If they can avoid that one bad conference game they have every year (perhaps at California?), they might get to play their way into the National Championship in Columbus in week 2. Sorry, no picture this time.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
65 predictions, #63
9 weeks from today (Thursday), the college football season kicks off. Among those Thursday night kickoffs is one of the most anticipated games in the history of the state of Idaho: Oregon at Boise State. Boise State is the object of prediction #63.
Prediction #63: Boise State will create another headache for the BCS. The past four years their regular season records have been 9-3, 12-0, 10-2, and 12-0. That first 12-0 season was capped off by a Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Last year they went 12-0, were ranked in the top 10, and got left out of the BCS club. They have a track record for being a nuisance to the BCS. This year, at 12-1 they would likely be in the top 10 again (though probably as the second highest non-BCS team, behind the winner of BYU-TCU). Could the BCS leave them out again? What happens if they go 13-0, with a victory over a 2nd or 3rd place in the Pac 10 Oregon? They would likely be in the top 4 (or higher). Could they make a push for the National Championship game? Either way, at 12-1 or 13-0, they will be a headache for the BCS powers that be. 9 weeks from today, we'll know a lot more about the Broncos.
Prediction #63: Boise State will create another headache for the BCS. The past four years their regular season records have been 9-3, 12-0, 10-2, and 12-0. That first 12-0 season was capped off by a Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Last year they went 12-0, were ranked in the top 10, and got left out of the BCS club. They have a track record for being a nuisance to the BCS. This year, at 12-1 they would likely be in the top 10 again (though probably as the second highest non-BCS team, behind the winner of BYU-TCU). Could the BCS leave them out again? What happens if they go 13-0, with a victory over a 2nd or 3rd place in the Pac 10 Oregon? They would likely be in the top 4 (or higher). Could they make a push for the National Championship game? Either way, at 12-1 or 13-0, they will be a headache for the BCS powers that be. 9 weeks from today, we'll know a lot more about the Broncos.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
65 Predictions, #64
64 days prior to kickoff, I predict there will not be a 3-way tie for the Big 12 South. The winner of the OU-Texas game will win the South, either outright or by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. The winner of that game also gains an inside track towards the NC game along with the winner of USC-Ohio State and Florida. The real question is: will OU land on its feet after losing in the National Championship Game last season, or will this be the year of the Longhorn?
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