Air Force at UNLV (Thursday Night)
This is the final game of the season for Air Force. They have a chance, a very good chance, to get to 8 wins again prior to a bowl game, which means they could get to 9 wins for the first time since 2007. It will be building towards a better team next season, entering a weaker MWC, and, perhaps, a 10-win season. UNLV has a short week to prepare for the option attack. I think there is some pride left in the Rebels and they will play well. The game against Wyoming last week is a testament to that. But Air Force is on a mission, and a loss isn't in the cards. In a game that's closer than it probably should be: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Colorado State at Wyoming
The CSU Rams were playing decently well of late until the BYU game when everything fell apart. Wyoming has lost 6 in a row, mostly with poor defense. The offense is coming around. This is a huge rivalry game, for those who do not know. I think this will be a wide open game and a lot of points on the board, both teams have showed flashes of brilliance on offense throughout the season, but neither of them has played defense to speak of. CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Utah at San Diego State
To me, for this game the biggest question is: what is Utah's mindset? If their heads are right, they will come out and beat San Diego State soundly. Last week, their heads weren't right and they were blown out of the water by a team they should have probably beat. The Utes are a very fundamentally sound team, but it is their mentals, not their fundamentals, that will decide this game. SDSU can come up with whatever game plan they want and play as well as they want, but if the Utes are playing well, it won't matter. I think a lot will be known by the opening kickoff. If the Utes pin SDSU deep or have a big return of their own, their heads are back in it. If SDSU manages a decent return (like 30-yard line or better) or if Utah is penalized for an illegal block on their return, then they are still down and out. The former will result in a comfortable win, 10-13 points. The latter will have disastrous results for them and they will be blown out the water in a game similar to Notre Dame. I believe the Utes will regroup for this one. I think SDSU will play them well, play them tough, and Utah will have to gut it out. I will be interested to see the Aztec rushing attack. But I think they will go to Asiata early and he will carry the load in the first half. Matt Asiata didn't apply for a 6th year of eligibility to watch the season go down in flames: he will step up. Utah 31, SDSU 24. This result means that BYU will go to the Armed Forces Bowl, regardless of how they finish the season (Vegas takes Utah, Poinsettia takes SDSU, Independence takes Air Force, and Armed Forces is left with BYU).
I still don't get it. If BYU wins their next two games they will be in second place. Why would they then go to the last bowl. If Utah wins both of their remaining games we are still tied for third aren't we?
ReplyDeleteIf Utah beats SDSU, Vegas will take Utah regardless of the outcome of their final game with BYU (9-3 or 10-2 Utah vs. 7-5 or 6-6 BYU). Poinsettia will probably take SDSU regardless, unless Vegas takes them first. The Independence Bowl has explicitly stated that if Air Force is still "on the board" they will invite them. If SDSU beats Utah, there is a good chance of Air Force or BYU going to the Poinsettia since Vegas would probably take SDSU...if that happens, Independence would have to decide between Utah and BYU and the loser would go to the Armed Forces Bowl...
ReplyDeleteBowls do not have to pick in order of standings, so if BYU is second or third, they could very well go to the lowest or second lowest bowl, mostly because of their 1-3 non-conference record. 8 and 9 win teams are more attractive than 7 or 6 win teams...
ReplyDeleteI have a hard time believing that the opening kickoff and subsequent return will determine the outcome of the game. Florida returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against USC and then got steamrolled. Different circumstances? Yes. But you can't seriously think if SDSU returns it to the 36 yard line that Utah will get down on themselves and the game will sway SDSU's way. Come on, bro...
ReplyDeleteI didn't say Utah would get down on themselves if SDSU returned it to the 36-yard line. I'm just saying that you will be able to tell a lot about the Utes' mindset by what kind of energy you see at their first opportunity on the field. Their mindset will determine the outcome of this game: they are a better team with better players, if they are a hungrier team too, there is not much SDSU can do about it. Given the emotional rollercoaster a Whittingham-coached team is always on, the emotions must be high for them to have a chance in this game.
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